They Are Lying To You About The Stock Market Crash
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- Опубликовано: 27 ноя 2023
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The stock market is bouncing back - inflation in the US is over, consumer confidence is returning, people are beginning to spend again and ad spend is increasing.
2024 is poised to be a great year for stocks, but you wouldn't know it as everyone is predicting a recession, the biggest ever stock market crash and other doom and gloom scenarios.
In this video I share data from different sources so you can decide what you think on where the stock market is headed.
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No, you're wrong Sasha. The a$$clowns you're showing are regurgigating an echo of something they heard from someone who really knew. It's about eurodollars, debt, oil, and demographics.
USA corporate debt is paying 4.61%. If Corporations start paying 7% bond debt, with interest rates continuing the be this high, you can expect a 40% stock market drop.
@@intelligentcomputing There were quite a few more puns than that!
Re: huge bounce back in trend .....
Data looks more like a volatile stagnation
We have a chicken and egg situation
....The market has never gone up when the central banks are cutting rates because the central banks are only going to cut rates because the economy is doing badly. Central banks will not cut rates because the economy is doing well.
I can understand your point that the market will not crash within 12 months..... I'm just pushing very hard against the idea that the market goes up with interest rate cuts.... Based on historical analysis
The thing is Sasha, every single time in history the Yield curve has inverted the market has crashed/dumped after the un-inversion which is still to come. So to say it isn't going to take a hit would be to say it is for the first time in history going to ignore the yield curve un-inversion. In 2008, 2001 and all previous crashes the dump comes once recession is confirmed and the FED starts cutting rates again.
Absolutely. This channel is over simplistic, just this comment is more spot on than all his videos.
He also ignores the P/E ratio at 24 and unsustainable stocks valuations, just to say another one.
@@lainiwakura44 Indeed. And to act like the fed is a bunch of senile idiots is ridiculous--they know exactly what they are doing and saving the economy is not their plan (never was).
Agreed, pretty dangerous video to publish, the fact inflation is coming down is a big warning itself
@@straightlinesteve This 'expert' does not give me much confidence.
I was attracted here by the contrarian clickbait titles, but I'm not sure how much value there is in these contents. He seems to cherry pick some relatively isolated metrics to make a point which is loosely related to the big picture.
I agree. The yield curve says it all. The ad revenue being up is because businesses can't sell and are desperate for sales, so they'll be running out of money even faster. It's just not hit the economy yet.
Great videos as usual. Ad revenue spend could also be due to lacking sales and wanting to gain more market exposure to attract business.
2nd video watched and its even better..
Thank you
Love the condensed info
the market always bottomed after the yield curve un-inverted, when FED actually cuts rates, this is still to come.
Hope so, just changed the job for better and now can buy more
🎯🎯🎯
The most significant lesson I gained from the stock market in 2023 is that uncertainty prevails, emphasizing the importance of humility. Adhering to a long-term strategy with a competitive edge is key
Certainty eludes everyone; thus, it's vital to establish your own methodology, handle risk, and adhere to your strategy unwaveringly. This commitment should endure challenges and successes, all while maintaining a commitment to ongoing learning and improvement
I wholeheartedly concur, which is why I appreciate giving an investment coach the power of decision-making. Given their specialized expertise and education, as well as the fact that each and every one of their skills is centered on harnessing risk for its asymmetrical potential and controlling it as a buffer against certain unfavorable developments, it is practically impossible for them to underperform. I have made over $745k working with an investment coach for more than two years.
That's fascinating. How can I contact your Asset-coach as my portfolio is dwindling?
I just Googled her name and her website came up right away. It looks interesting so far. I'm going to send a mail to her and let you know how it goes.Thanks for sharing
S C A M thread
Awesome overview of economy, inflation, the market, interest rates! Keep up the great work!!
I agree with all what you have just said... :) and I do see the same trends and info from all the charts that I'm looking at...
Love your content Sasha - keep up the good work ❤
Thank you so much!
The hairiest bastured advertising shavers lol
To be fair, the hair on top is a combover.
You don't know the level of grooming that goes into maintaining the homeless pauper look!
0
😂😂😂😂
Manscape make ball shavers, the clue is in the name.
Great video Sasha, keep up the hard work and thank you for your continued efforts!
Yeah love the shaver. Is there a ball bag attachment Sasha? Could do with a tidy up down there. Thanks for recommending.
Good job my man
cheers dude!
Have always been an avid listener to your videos. Just wanted to check in about your thoughts about PLTR now, if you dont mind sharing.
Nice analysis - thank you. I was able to get in and get some great S&P companies well down and available with plenty of potential to bounce back. The capital markets inflow is understandable. The next 12-18 months will be very interesting.
I just love your video Sasha! Brilliant again.
Thank you!!!
Thanks Sasha
Refreshingly succinct! 😊
Thank you! That's my goal with every video!
Thanks mush
Thank you.
Because trust me bro😂😂 love your no nonsense cut through the bull and tell it how it is
This is my new favorite economic channel.
I love your analysis.
Thought I would take it a step back in this one to explain the longer-term picture because from where I am sitting, it is way easier to understand it that way.
So, everything is fine then? What about the borrowings and debt and interest repayments?
Very nice piece. The only question is whether the market will boom as you suggest. For that to have either the market’s PE multiple will have to increase or earnings will have to shoot up from here. I’m not sure why either/both will happen. We are at a TTM PE of 25 which is very high by any measure
wise words. If rates stay where they are, the long end of the curve will keep creeping up, putting more pressure on the stock market. I'm not so sure the markets are going to boom as it is implied in the video
Corporate earnings will increase rapidly. This is the normal mechanism for P/E climbing down slowly, rather than decreasing prices. It's also notable that P/E ratios are markedly lower than the 2021 peak.
Because of dividends, I first began investing in stocks. It's important, in my opinion, to be able to live off of dividends without selling if you invest and make other income in addition to payouts. It suggests that you may pass that down to your kids and give them a leg up in life. Over the years, I've invested over $600k in dividend stocks; I continue to buy more today and will keep doing so until the price drops even further.
Hearing from an experienced investor who has survived adversity and prevailed is always motivating. It may be frightening when your portfolio goes from green to red, but if you have invested in strong firms, you should maintain growing them and stick to your goal.
I wholeheartedly concur, which is why I appreciate giving an investment coach the power of decision-making. Given their specialized expertise and education, as well as the fact that each and every one of their skills is centered on harnessing risk for its asymmetrical potential and controlling it as a buffer against certain unfavorable developments, it is practically impossible for them to underperform. I have made over 1.5 million dollars working with an investment coach for more than two years.
I need a guide so i can salvage my port-folio due to the massive dips and come up with better strategies. How can one reach this advisor???
Do your due diligence and opt for one that has tactics to help your portfolio continue consistent and steady growth. "JULIE ANNE HOOVER’ is accountable for the success of my portfolio, and I believe she has the qualifications and expertise to accomplish your objectives.
This is useful information; I copied her whole name and pasted it into my browser; her website appeared immediately, and her qualifications are excellent; thank you for sharing!!
Brutal honestly is a breath of fresh air. Keep it going!
Would you sell sandp 500?
Sasha, what a bloody brilliant analysis and explanation! My quest for a better understanding of economics and geopolitics begun much later in life than I would have liked, but as graduate scientist and subsequently a lawyer (in the UK) for well over 20 years, you’re approach really helped my understanding because you underpin everything with credible evidence that makes common sense of what from so, so many other commentators is usually lost on me as waffling, opinionated, over intellectualised bollocks! All too often this stuff is frustratingly explained in a way which feels designed to keep ordinary people ‘excluded’. Hats off to you for the clear, non-nonsense delivery.
Not sure if the rumour mongering about a stock market crash is aimed at the US stock market, or if you used US Data to illustrate your point for other reasons. However would really value some kind of follow up video what you see the data shows for the UK economy in the near future. There have been a few apocalyptical predictions I’ve come across for the UK and would be interested to hear your analysis. Especially after so many years of unethical, legalised corruption and exploitation of the UK state assets by the Tories and their cronies, the outlook feels pretty bleak, even if it now looks inevitable they will finally be ousted at the next election.
Sasha, thanks as always for cutting through all the media BS and giving us a much needed realty check!
Another sasha vid. My day is made
I need to try and make them more often!
I genuinely mean it when I express my stress and concern regarding the market crash and high inflation, particularly in relation to my retirement. I have been experiencing losses for quite some time, and while some may argue that crises can present opportunities, I am feeling overwhelmed. However, I understand that investing is a long-term endeavor, and it is crucial to maintain focus on the bigger picture and the long run.
Considering that I am only three years away from retirement, it becomes challenging for me to solely concentrate on the long-term perspective. Despite having invested in reputable companies and having a significant amount of funds allocated, my profits have been stagnant. This situation raises the question: Does the current recession and unstable market offer any calculated risk opportunities for generating profits?
In a downturned market, numerous strategies exist that can potentially yield lucrative profits. However, executing such sophisticated trades requires the expertise of seasoned market professionals.
I have experienced significant losses, and I am holding on with the hope of recovering them. It is evident that I am in dire need of assistance. Could you please share the name of the investment adviser who guides you?
It seems that STEPHANIE KOPP MEEKS possesses extensive knowledge and a strong educational background. After conducting a Google search of her name, I discovered her website. Thank you for providing this information.
If you’re so close to retirement then why aren’t you in bonds yet? Seems like you’re not understanding how this all works.
dont hold back Sasha - Excellent stuff
I'd be very interested in your opinion on Game of Trades video "5 More Months Until It Begins..." A recession that is.
😊 go sasha! We love yoi x
Thank you!
Thanks Sasha👍🙂
👍
Are money market funds safe though?
Sasha The GOAT
The advitisjn
The advert figures you quote are not adjusted for inflation
Well something has got to give
How do you explain the declining oil price?
The U.S. is eating into their strategic oil reserve. It can’t be sustained.
mad video this
Great vids, however what happened to the puppy?
Thanks!
Wow! Thank you so much!!!
Hi Sasha your stock market analysis is absolutely blunt which is perfect to basically address a boardroom of directors. Given factual data and giving it straight. Nobody has time to watch these other guys trying to push what's in fashion on RUclips. You are the best analyst I've seen with regards to the economy and markets. It's a real pity I didn't know you in Covid and when you were doing stock analysis . If you have a medium or interface where you offer stock analysis for buying shares in good future prospect growth companies let me know. Kind regards keep up the good honest work just too much bullshit out there because social media controls the narrative and influence to make sure people don't enjoy bearing the fruits of investing in shares when they are on sale.
Hi Sasha is there any chance that Dr Martin will recover? I would love to hear your opinion? Thank you for all your videos
I like the way you think. I hope you are right about 2024 bounce back. Cheers
Em negative yield curve?
Prices coming down lol
Where do you shop?
Please share
I was thinking the same thing.. prices are not coming down. Food prices are still significantly higher than they were a couple years ago.
Noone can predict the market in the short term, not you not them ! You might predict the economy but not the market! If you go in the market you get a risk in exchange for returns, known as the equity RISK premium, so have the allocation to stocks is right for you indipendent to the market !
Keepin it real as always, appreciate your videos👍🏼
Thank you!
Have to agree with you, there is a lot of money on the sidelines at the moment. Once interest rates start dropping there is only one place for the money to go.
dogecoin
humor me on this......what happens to equities if that money market dump is done into long term treasuries. Again, hear me out, and please understand that possibility, and how it would affect equities.
I've learnt more from Sasha in the last few weeks than I ever did at school and from MSM (which I trust as far as I can spit them).
Can you tell me something Sasha? Would inflation be better tackled if the Banks passed on rocketing interest rates to the "common man" and "his" savings? After all, it's our money they use to speculate to accumulate.
The banks don’t need our money, bank credit is created similar to the US subprime/junk debt, selling credit 10 fold.
You are my new favorite RUclipsr.
🙏
It's great to hear these viewpoints but there are lots of opposing views with data to back it up too. We need more discussions where the different views can be scrutinized. What seems to be agreed by all is the Fed doesn't have a clue!
Most amusing
You should advertise the ball shaver next. Works quite well..
if all that money sitting in bonds starts flowing to equities, what do you think will happen to interest rates? The market is not going to rally.
"Just some random guy from RUclips"..........you do yourself a disservice Sir :) one of a very few channels & observers I actually take note of and place weight behind their opinion. Thanks again for yet another informative slice of data driven opinion :)
i watched the whole affiliate add because of the puns.
fascinating, well done
3:10 "But then it grew on me' OH SNAP! Nice one xD
I love this channel! Gives me balance from what the narrative spewed by main stream media. Thanks Sasha for focusing on data!
Great video, thanks.
Although I can't decide whether to invest some money or shave my goolies.
That sounds like a knife-edge decision with a razor-thin margin for error!
I couldn’t agree with this analysis more. However I am worried about the UK’s interest rate regime since most people do not have savings as a buffer against variable-rate mortgage growths; I feel people will pay for their mortgages before anything else.
Very tough times for UK. So many sectors appear to be in a state of flux, under funding/investment, reorganisation and decline.
My God! What an amazing video 😂Sasha is the smartest finance content creator on youtube, period! 🙌🙂😂
Went straight from this to Mohamed El-Erian on CNBC. He thinks the market will be tempered for the short term and OPEC will cut supply. But my main thought is that if stocks rebound in 2024, what impact this will have on governments servicing their debt.
Proper tickles me every video 😂😂
One thing that I'm 100% certain is that nobody knows what the hell is going to happen in the future.
Housing prices have not corrected. What those charts are not showing is how the average American feels right now. Not a single person making average wages I know is spending extra money, most of us have started taking secondary work. Inflation over the last two years has almost doubled our day to day expenses. Housing and even apartments are still FAR more expensive than what the average person or couple can afford. Wages have NOT kept up with this load.
How does Sacha do it? I detected no edits!
Last week US data giant Palantir awarded unprecedented contract to manage all UK medical records
It’s the largest data deal in NHS history. Today, a half-billion-pound contract to manage NHS data in a vast new system - the ‘Federated Data Platform’ (FDP) - was awarded to US company Palantir.
Man, I wish I paid more attention in my economics classes in college…and seen this video when it came out 2 weeks ago
Damn i had all my alcohol ready
Informative vid, very good. Though sarcasm level way down, anomaly? Sarcasm 38%
Will do better next time!
Now is when the big players are buying. They can't buy unless everyone else is selling. Hence the panic inducement.
Ummm, they've been selling tho 🤔 It's retail investors who are buying ATM
@@alexlaw1892 I don’t believe it is retail, my belief is it’s fund managers wanting their bonuses. Whether right or wrong the answer will arrive early new year.
You’re comparing 2022 Q3 and Q4 to Q3 of 2023. That likely paints false narrative since we are comparing lowest quarters with the current ones. (As per your other video few months back 😊)
Amazing analysis as ALWAYS.
Thanks!!
I better go check some other sources now 😅
💯
Tell this to metro bank and cmc markets stock holders
Has inflation really gone down in the real world or that a dufferent argumebt
Go and buy some food you will soon see it is still going up
Always good to hear both sides of every argument, from both the Bulls and the Bears. Bulls say that the Fed is done hiking interest rates and inflation is coming down fast. Unemployment is low, sales are up, revenue at companies are higher and the economy is strong. Bears would retort that the full lag effect of higher interest rates have yet to be realized. The consumers ability to spend is diminishing, companies will have to roll over their old debt to higher interest rates in 2024, the Fed may be done raising interest rates but core CPI is still a sticky 4% while the goal is 2% so higher for longer is still in play. Personally, I'll just wait and be patient for the right opportunities to present themselves.
VT247
for me its a tuff call, i am just long on TLT. the rest i dont see reasons to change base case of "this time is not diferent" it is clear for me that we are on a buble i just dont know when its going to burst. Bonds rate are declining thats a sign of recession, if economy is going to boom long end of the curve should be incrising. Dont know man, i love your content i am just out for now.
Some nice creases on your t-shirt
I made them especially for you.
@@SashaYanshin😂 You have the patience of a saint Sasha! The BS comments you get here.
The first time I subscribed to your channel was because of that hilarious but true video of the Crypto Bros being F*ucked and since then loved all your vids, I hope you will cover the latest fiasco with Binance
suddenly Im wide awake thinking were on the brink of a major financial paradigm shift.
Sacha, you're just brilliant! Thanks for all your videos. Please don't stop!
Absolutely correct that the flight to cash in 2022/23 into high yielding Money Markets and short term treasuries is going to come flooding back to the market when rates come down. I’ve done exactly this and have plans to redeploy the money back into the market. I’m even starting now. 6 trillion bucks is a lot of pent up money.
And gold is on a rise today. A big one.
Sorry Sasha, I'm not convinced by the argument that advertising spending is directly related to the health status of businesses. Advertising is often used to boost sales when they are dwindling. Tesla, for instance, only started using advertisements last quarter to increase sales. It's more likely that businesses were prepared for the economic downturn and preferred to save money. However, a recession hasn't occurred, and the bailout of SVB, along with strong GDP data, just showed that the economy is still in relatively good condition. Therefore, it's better to invest money while the environment is favorable. This behavior is mirrored in both the stock market and the cryptocurrency market. So, what you're observing in your data is based on expectations, not the actual state of the economy. Yes, the Fed was late and probably tightened too much; inflation is likely over, but a recession could still eventually happen, and it's better to be prepared. I don't foresee a market crash, but I wouldn't be surprised if the S&P 500 remains flat next year and is outperformed by the utility sector. Many stocks are at pre-COVID levels, and a rotation away from megacaps is the most likely outcome.
Sorry Sasha , but I do disagree with your view
advertising revenue is directly related to health
of the economy!
Why?
I am in Canada, there are 2 million people going to
food banks . 36 % increase before pandemic 😷!
People are angry 😡, hungry 🤤 and broke.
People here think 🤔 , that government it is responsible for!
So , they want to change the government.
I don’t think 🤔, down south the situation is any different?
Every time the yield curve inverts after a rate hike there’s a recession. Every time the US unemployment rate moves above the 2 year moving average there’s a recession.
@@JamesBond-jb2yi it seems there is little good news anywhere. Times are worse than the news reports and it will be a very tough winter for many families. I watched a doc/report on Canada a few weeks ago and was shocked at house prices and the approach to ‘drugs problem’
@@SzymonStas it's almost 1.5 years since yield curve inverted. How long do you need to wait to fulfil the "prophecy"?
@@lynchs2441 The economic circumstances before a recession are always different, so every recession is a little different. Usually 1 to 3 years, but governments do stuff to delay it, like massive deficit spending that stimulates the economy.
Calling Sven Carlin a "clown". That's quite the accusation too make, especially for someone who has watched the video for only 2 minuts and saying that they're clowns.
The data are pointing*
When I see a Sasha video talking about the stock market, I click
I think it's a pretty simplistic approach to saying everything is great. The DXY is continuing a downtrend which is going to make imports more expensive here in the states. So DXY goes down, inflation moves up. The dollar is weak. Looking at the SP500, stocks are flat outside the large tech companies. All manufacturing indexes are down in the US. Pretty sure 2024 is gonna be a rough year. Living in the states, inflation is way above 3-4%...so the gov't is lying to you about the rate of inflation.
il be watching the markets daily and adding stop losses daily. the real rally is next year
I just invest into mutual funds month after month, year after year so I don't actually care what the doom mongers say. I'm immune to them. However the AI boom has kept my portfolio value up, whilst the rest of the stocks are now presenting much better value so in theory I guess a boost is in the post.
I don't fear crashes, I embrace them, and keep buying.
yep when stocks & etfs are down that just an opportunity to buy cheap. I just keep my DCA strat going as normal.
Great video Sasha. Can you do something similar on the UK economy? Or do you also feel it is going down. Thanks
erm. I make way too many videos on the UK Economy. :) The short version is - it ain't doing so well.
@@SashaYanshinThe US market aint so good either.