Could the Lib Dems Come Second?
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- Опубликовано: 11 май 2024
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In this video, we’ll have a look at this - whether the Lib Dems could overtake the Tories and what this would ultimately mean for British democracy.
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It would be fascinating what the country would look like if it was divided between labour and lib dems
A lot better than it does right now! Or when labour were having to govern against Tory attacks in the new labour years
Just look at the mess you made after using the toilet. That's any government.
P😅0ooo😅o😅@@jamescole1314
Utopia, just need starmer out of labour and replaced by an actual left/cent. left politician
With the entire nation turning increasingly left wing many centrist conservative voters will likely move towards voting for Lib Dem’s. In this case many Lib Dem MP’s would vote slightly in favour of old Tory policies to please their new Tory members. It would basically become Tories 2.0 if I’m correct.
‘Tories are set to win -5 seats’ but wait here’s how even worse things can get for the Tories
"Tories are set to lose so hard, that 20 new seats in the House of Commons will be created and randomly distributed"
Haha disproportional representation 💀
Tories set to not exist but it could be even worse for them
ECONOMY'S turning...strong growth, inflation and interest rates plummeting...great election prospects for Rishi!
@@Bimmeroo090-cl5czget a grip. THE Tories need to go, and go NOW..... ABSOLUTE CESSPIT OF A GOVERNMENT
2:39 I've seen one-party states with worse results than Labour in that graph, how did the Tories mess up this badly?
Where to even begin. Everything in the country is broken, that's basically the way to sum it up. Years of austerity meant long-term side effects would be inevitable, Brexit has been a disaster as we took the worst version of it, effectively sanctioning ourselves from the biggest trading market in the world - and since Boris Johnson in 2019 we've had the worst of the Tory party in terms of sleaze and corruption and just outright disgrace. It's come to the point that whenever a headline in the news says 'A Member of Parliament has been found doing XYZ', everyone automatically assumes it's a Tory because 9/10 it usually is.
@@XxHaythamKenwayxXyeah there is a great amount of disillusionment right now in the UK, its part of the reason why smaller parties are doing well in the poll, like reform uk, even though reform is basically just the ultra-tory party.
50% of the dislike for tories is purely from the fact they've been in power so long it's not possible to blame anyone else for all the problems in the country
They aren't left or right wing. They don't do anything about illegal immigration and are putting them in hotels angering the right. And the left doesn't like tories either for obvious reasons.
But that's just one example. Basically they isolated themselves and sold out their voters
Imagine a situation like the collapse of Soviet Union. Now imagine this with pandemics while the leader of the government is making parties and his substitute is a sociopathic lettuce. This is the situation of the UK after Brexit.
torys are aiming for zero seats
It's the most they can reasonably expect after their 15 years of 'achievements'
*best case scenario
Here's hoping they can achieve their objective 😂
If only!
No. The Tories will find a way to survive. They are undemocratic authoritarian oligarchs.
I hate my country
“Lib Dems can win here” and it’s just a map of Great Britain
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
😂😂😂
In 2019 this was the case!
There were 100 seats where they came within 400 votes of the Tories, they only lost these seats because Labour's claims to ve the main challenger based on the Lib dems historically bad 2015 results.
@@quintuscrinis8032 That requires going against the concept of multiparty democracy. Huh. I guess Britain isn’t that different after all.
Map of great Britain is entire of UK minus Ireland
3:00 Regardless of your political opinion, this shows why the first-past-the-post system is stupid. Getting half the amount of votes but more than three times as many seats is ridiculous and simply unfair.
It’s such of out of date system, it just not fit for purpose in the modern world.
The fourth most popular party getting the second most seats while the third gets none is mental im surprised there isn't a bigger movement to change our electoral system
@@hansgruber3064 it is, but it has benefits, it avoids unlikeable corrupt politicians that scrape by on 20% of the vote from uninformed people getting into government by being chosen by a party that gets sub 20% everywhere
Problem is, current day politicians getting majority vote are no better
@@cathulionetharn5139 plus the fact that a small party could be a majority provider and demand more cabinet posts than their number of MPs warrant. Moreover, coalitions often result in weak government.
I'm glad more and more people are realizing FPtP is an archaic system that has to go. We've iterated on our democracies before, and I believe getting rid of FPtP is the next step
It would be absolutely amazing if the libdems could comeback after basically a century of being 3rd or 4th
I didn't realise it was 2081 already
I hope so
@@jakel8627 liberal party which evolved into libdems was the main opposition party 100 years ago and further back
@@jakel8627 the current LibDem Party is merger of the former Liberal Party with other parties. The Liberals were the opposition around a 100 years ago and before.
More context: The Liberals themselves are the successor of the Whigs, which was the first ruling party of the UK, the party of Sir Robert Walpole and many other prime ministers of that time.
The last Liberal PM was David Lloyd George, who was PM during WW1. After WW1, the PM has been either from the Tories or from Labour. The historical Liberal Party merged with the Social Democratic Party (a Labour splinter) in the 1980s to form the LibDems. A few Liberals chose not to join the new LibDems and there still exists a very fringe Liberal Party, but it lacked support as no central figure chose to back them. All of them joined the LibDems.
people saying that a "spell in opposition" would be maybe good for the Tories but I think a spell in the third party backbenches would be good for everyone
It would be great if the LibDems did come second
it really wouldn't, they proved that they only cared about power when they entered the Coalition government and dropped all promises except ones that would be beneficial to them
@@EngineerRunner Please. This is politics we're talking about. Who isn't interested in power?
@@Srindal4657 fair, but they could've at least implemented _some_ of their policies, or even left the Tories to struggle in a minority government, but instead they proved that they don't care about the voters.
@@EngineerRunner lib dems is divided between a left and right wing of their party. It's very difficult to get things done when the party doesn't agree.
@@EngineerRunnerThere is such thing as change; moreover, what may become the Lib Dem manifesto looks better and more sensible than either of the other two parties. You must bear in mind that within British democracy we are ultimately choosing the LEAST harmful as opposed to the “best”. Much is also dependent on local constituencies however and I wouldn’t advice ever wasting a vote
Vote Lib Dem to force Labour to institute electoral reform for proportional representation.
Yes! The fact that West Germany called the FPTP system 'authoritiarian when they were debating electoral reform in the 1960s tells you all you need to know.
No. Vote the strongest candidate to defeat the Tories. Be it Libdem, be it Labour. But first, defeat the Tories. Then, when in power, demand Proportional representation.
@SPQSpartacus that sort of messaging is precisely why we had Conservative victories in 2017 and 2019!!
2019 saw the Lib Dems come a close 2nd to the Tories in about 100 seats!
And just as importantly, if Labour win a landslide this time they will shelve electoral reform just as they did back in 1997/2001!
No keep voting Tory for a sound, thriving economy...don't risk your job and home in Starmer's casino.
@@Bimmeroo090-cl5cz come back to me when you find that thriving economy... I can't see it anywhere.
I would love to have a labour parliament with lib dem opposition
Need to prevent all these hard-roght defectors that Starmer seems to be welcoming in at bay though, so a coalition between th3 two would be even better
That would kill the lib dems as they would have to lean towards the centre right wing of the party. If labour move to clearly blairite third way politics, then it leaves an opportunity for the 'sdp wing' that Kennedy was part of to outflank labour on the left. That's when the lib dems found success
@@quintuscrinis8032 this is exactly best case scenario, a lib dem, labour coalition. Lib dems have solid policies and we have actually benefited from some in the past/present e.g income tax allowance of £12,500 , for anyone not hitting near 6 figures (basically most people in the UK). Labour now is just not great, what is even their policies lol.
I'm a card-carrying LibDem who in my seat am going to vote Labour, only way remotely possible to oust my Tory MP. I'd find it remarkable to find myself a member of The Opposition party.
Labour sucks just as much as the Conservatives but I get the logic behind this move.
As another card carrying lib-dem, I’ll be very happy if we become the opposition party
@@bigships As a Labour Member, I agree. An opposition pushing for liberalism and pro-europeanism as opposed to one pushing for fascism and isolationism (because the tories will lurch even farther to the right after the election) would be beautiful.
Please don’t, the party is cash starved as it is and if members are voting for other parties we will lose our deposits in many seats which will hurt. Having people vote lib dem even when we don’t stand a good chance of winning also helps highlight how rubbish fptp is.
@@venmis137 the only notable party on the "right" in the UK is the Reform Party.
Labour are far left and Conservatives are centre left.
Folks, come the next election: VOTE! Don't just take these predictions and opinion polls as how things will be!
The Tories want people to be in the mindset of “I’m not voting, it doesn’t matter”
if the tories couldnt even manage to be opposition, that would be hilarious
As bad as Tony Blair was, he was right about one thing. Never underestimate the Conservatives; never overestimate the Lib Dems.
Hey, he was first to vanquish them. Might as well heed his advice.
Reform and Conservative fighting amongst themselves will lose them seats and send them into oblivion, good.
At best it is only approx. 30% of the overall vote, so irrelevant in the bigger scheme of things.
I don’t buy reform stealing that many votes from the conservatives, yes it’s possible but I find polls regarding this situation usually overplays just how willing people are to switch parties.
@@garethbuckeridge6910actually, Reform + Conservatives combined are single digits behind Labour, of course, you can't convince Reform that Tories are anything but Labour-lite, or to convince some lifelong Tories that Reform isn't some radical lunatics
@@kingdomofbird8174yeah i’ll he voting reform as labour isn’t going to be different to tories
@@RickRossYuhM8Voting for an even further right wing party’s definitely gonna make things better !!
I don’t like labor, but they’re infinitely better than the Tories and Reform
I support talking more about the Lib Dems and giving reform UK less airtime
💯
All parties deserve airtime regardless of whether or not you agree with them. I don’t like the Green Party but they have every right to make their voices heard and tell everyone about their manifesto. Reform should also have that right.
@@clmclmn21 all parties do not deserve airtime, the Monster Raving Loony Party never gets any airtime and they shouldn't. Reform UK merit more airtime than MRLP, but the amount of attention that they are currently getting is clearly over inflated
@@clmclmn21Reform gets disproportionate airtime compared to their actual support.
Same as Trump in the Republican primaries in 2015, same as UKIP in the 2010s
@@clmclmn21 he didn't say they dot deserve their voice heard. Just said that reform get a disproportionately large amount of airtime whereas lib dems get too little
The thing about the MRP polls is that while on the surface it looks like the Tories are in a secure second, when you look below the surface and at the figures in each seat, it becomes plain that most of the seats categorised as Tory are not secure. Their share of the vote is low, and in many of the seats they are only just barely ahead. Furthermore, MRP does not factor in tactical voting at all, and a level of Labour/LD tactical voting even at a fraction of what we have seen in local and by-elections would be enough to halve the Tory totals in the MRP polls. In a high tactical voting scenario where Reform UK vote holds up it is a very credible and plausible scenario that the Lib Dems win more Westminster seats than the Tories. I wouldn't bet on it happening, but I wouldn't bet on it _not_ happening, either. I feel like its probably about a 1 in 3 chance
I guess the tactical voting might swing both ways, i.e. some “holding their nose” and vote Tory to avoid a narrow LibDem or Labour win. The biggest factors are probably:
1) Whether Labour and the LibDems agree not to run actively against each other, or at least do some kind of bargain to avoid splitting the vote and thus increase Tory losses.
2) The extent to which Reform UK voters are so fired up that they’re willing to “waste their votes”, in which case the party may act as a serious Tory spoiler.
3) The degree to which Keir Starmer’s “lurch to the right” alienates the Labour left to the extent that they either vote, say, Green (thus increasing the chance of “wasted votes”) or simply choose not to vote at all.
If those reporting in opinion polls that they’ll vote Reform UK instead choose to vote tactically, you can almost certainly add all, or at least a large proportion, of that vote to the Tory tally. However, if they’re angry enough with the Tories, most of their votes will probably end up being “wasted”.
The chances of the Lib Dems finishing second are about the same as Jo Swinsons chances of becoming Prime Minister at the last election.
🔶️LIB DEM🔶️
🔶️LIB DEM🔶️
🔶️LIB DEM🔶️
Love them?
@@spaghettiisyummy.3623 Well I think they love them if they're chanting their name, so it translated the meaning accurately
I don't think it will happen, but it would be hilarious if it did.
LibDems on the first day at work as the official opposition: "The Whigs agree with the government to return to the EU"
Everyone else: " The Whigs? I thought you guys reformed?"
LibDems: "yes, that's what we wanted you to think"
Imagine claiming you have a mandate to lead based on the last parliament when you've lost more than 300 elected officials per year on average since then
I’m not voting Tories or Labour, it’s time another party had a chance so I’ve voting green. It’s silly we are meant to feel like it’s just two parties to pick from.
Libdems: *happy noises*
Indeed! :D
Hear hear!
Unfortunately it doesn't seem likely to happen until the UK gets some sort of propertional representation. I've always been a lib dem voter and we've generally been too spread out to win a first past the post contest. I'm in a labour winning seat and polling suggests the lib dem candidate is nowhere near. But with proportional vote I could still get my vote in and just put labour as my second choice.
There are a lot of people like you. I remember talking to so many like you in St Albans back in 2017!!
Proportional representation please
I'm a Lib Dem member and I'd love it if we came second. But I don't think I'd want us to be the official opposition with as few as 44 seats. We wouldn't be able to properly fulfill the duties of an official opposition. We wouldn't even be able to shadow the government ministers without doubling up (or tripling up). We'd look like shambles. Worth remembering that 44 seats would be fewer than we got when we were in third place in '97, '01, '05, and '10. Also it's fewer than the SNP got in third place in '15 and '19. So I have mixed feelings. I want second place, but we'd really need to be beating our previous highwater mark of 62 seats in 2005 to look anything like a proper opposition.
What's wrong with forming a coalition opposition? For example Lib Dems and Greens with a few like-minded independents.
@@distinctdipole Nothing wrong with that. But the Greens would only add between 1 and 4 seats to the total. I don't see where independents are likely to be elected, tbh.
@@CRINOTH SNP+Plaid perhaps?
@@CRINOTH True it would be very dependent on the actual outcome of the election when we finally get it, but I thought it was an interesting idea that would also highlight the need for (hopefully) progressives on both sides of the house further excluding the looney right. Would also be good to see collaborative politics taking over from the mess that is the current adversarial playground politics we have now.
@@MrOats-bs1ry With the Lib Dems? Or as the main opposition grouping on their own? I personally wouldn't be in favour of working with either of the Nat parties.
Hoping and praying for a big come back from Lib Dem. Their policies are so much more mature than Labour and Tory policies
What are they offering? They never said in the video
They are probably lying again like in 2010. They'll say anything for a sniff at power, then do the opposite when they get in.
I'd just like to see the tories and Lib dems switch.
@@Adam-wg2rfthe right to see a gp within a week, named gp‘s for over 70s and those with long term conditions, fixing social care, giving the sewage companies a kicking, a milliard pounds a year to help farmers transition to sustainable farming practices, 8,000 new detectives, reverse Rwanda, reverse the tax breaks on the big banks and fossil fuel giants, etc…
Historically speaking our manifestos have been independently assessed as being the only consistently costed and budgeted manifestos from any of the main parties.
Unlike Starmer's Labour they actually care about my human rights as a trans person (they aren't actively throwing me under the bus for the culture war like Labour) so that's a big plus for me personally. Their candidate in my constituency is an actual local and a genuinely good person, and the only plausible opposition to one of the nastiest Tory MPs.
Not to mention them having more ambitious policies than Labour, they actually seem to believe in something unlike Starmer.
I don't understand the Tory strategy, it's as if they are going for a 0 seats any% speedrun.
People should be talking more about the Lib Dems than about Reform. The Lib Dems are the only third party that may have a real impact on the seat share, while Reform is going to struggle to get more than a couple of seats despite their high vote share.
Heck, Reform has won fewer council seats than George Galloway's party in the recent local elections. It's just how the first-past-the-post system works.
Speaking of Galloway, that party has a lot of core voters that are dominant in some areas. I think the mainstream parties are in for a shock from Galloway, and they might actually open their eyes to the consequences of their actions.....
Terrorists do seem to live in the same areas
Reform didn’t win many seats because they put next to no one forward, they have a higher vote share than the Lib Dem’s but are spread out, I agree that FPTP is stupid, but a two party system while flaws does have benefits compared to SV or proportional like Holland, Italy or Germany all three of which have seen very right wing party’s rise up as it is easy to do so with proportional.
@@fremes3918 If right wing parties gain traction, that's not a problem with the voting system. It just means left wing parties are sh*t
@@dontcomply3976Calling Galloway a terrorist, hilarious.
from Liberal and Conservatie being the main parties in the 1800's, to Labour and Conservative, to Labour and Liberal.
What's the point of Labour? It's bourgeois socialism. It reforms nothing, it serves the financial oligarchy by prescribing pankillers to the proletariat, but they can snatch the milk away whenever they want.
If I were Labour I'd mostly be concerned with the tories 'poisoning the well' as it were to force Labour to introduce unpopular measures to keep the goverrnment finances afloat.
The centre right space has already been vacated by the Tories. And Labour are moving to filling it. The Lib Dem’s are better off to take the centre left space, Labour are increasingly vacating.
I'd vote libdem if they did that. What I mostly want is PR.
Labour? Centre-right
What planet are you on?
@@dontcomply3976agreed, we ought to just say right for now
@@dontcomply3976 that's how Labour are attracting voters who would vote Tory otherwise. Centre right is always pliable.
We are Centre left and always have been.
I would like to emphasize again that the Tories only need 21% of the vote to get an absolute majority in Parliament. Due to the winner-takes-it-all principle, it is enough to have more votes than the other parties in 50.1% of constituencies to win the election. And neither of the two major parties wants to change this.
It's unlikely but would be such a large step in the right direction for the country.
This would be a fascinating dynamic. LibDems would attack mostly from more radical position on environment and energy constitutional issues, Europe, migration etc. I was under Tories forever, suddenly over 3 years, I have 3 LibDem councillors in my ward, a LibDem led Cherwell DC and a LibDem led Oxfordshire Country Council, with most other councils in the county LibDem led, two by Labour and none by Tories any more. Greens are in coalition.
They promised to do things, we voted for those things. The tories ignored what we voted for and ousted the people who wouldn't
Fptp is a stupid system to base a democracy on. In our democracy 59% of our electorate consistently have no say in government. This is an elective dictatorship more divided on class than political ideology.
Another strong possibility is a major scandal, which for the Tories seems to be a weekly event. However, the scandals rarely seem to have as much impact on voting as you'd imagine.
It's because they're so frequent, people have come to expect scandals from the Tories. Anyone who still supports them are fine with it.
To a certain degree they've lost most of the people who would be turned away by scandals thanks to the previous scandals, all that's left are the diehard Tory voters and those on the fence about switching to Reform.
Hence new scandals seem to have relatively little impact on their current voting numbers, merely solidifying the opposition to them from those who have already turned away.
Has there ever been a political party in history that saw such an insane drop off in popularity like this before?
Yes, see the collapse of the governing Conservatives in Canada 1992. In the UK, 1918 saw the collapse of the Liberals, and 1931 saw the collapse of Labour, although both these cases were caused by party splitting rather than extreme unpopularity.
And from such majority, too. TBH, I'm surprised there haven't been major riots so far, so thieving and crap they are.
The NSDAP in Germany became quite unpopular rather quickly after 1945
Yes, look at the continental European countries whose formerly important Social Democratic parties were reduced to the fringe. It even has a name: Pasokification
Its named after the once mighty Greek PASOK, which went from getting around 40% of the vote in the 1980s, ‘90s and 2000s to around 10% in the 2010s and ‘20s. PASOK lost 30 points (or 3/4) of its vote in a single election (2012) and hasn’t really recovered since.
The French Socialist Party has basically followed the Greek pattern, as has the Dutch Labour Party (although the latest general election at least gave them something of a comeback). The Czech Social Democrats even failed to cross the 5% electoral threshold in the latest general election.
I will never forgive the right wing fanatics. Simply ruined my life in the EU. I can’t apply for jobs that involve EU travel, my children abandoned their Erasmus studies and more importantly I can’t vote anywhere ! So please vote out the Conservatives
I’m British but I also think leaving the EU was retarded
You can apply for jobs. Just foreign countries can choose to say no.
You can apply for a job in USA, Australia, Panama, Pakistan, Peru....
This is so hyperbolic - don’t be so dramatic, Jesus. This is honestly a big reason why Remain lost. Europhiles are nuts.
@@danielwebb8402You must be a Brexiter. I can tell because from this comment it's clear that you're a bell end.
If you don't like democracy, move somewhere else.
In 2080 i will be telling my grandkids that there was once a political party called the conservatives
As a lib dem member it would he interesting to see if they ended up as the second largest party if they would still support the proportional representation.
Unless Conference voted to scrap the policy it will remain policy, the Lib Dems aren't like Labour or the Tories, the Lib Dems use one person, one vote so if the party votes to keep STV as their policy it will remain whether they win a majority or remain 3rd.
I wouldn't want to be a leader at conference arguing to drop PR of any form. Even Tim Farron couldn't swing that sort of vote.
Thank you.
Lib Dems as opposition would be brilliant. Considering they are more left leaning than the main two, it would be a good balance. While also helping to bring in PR and drug reform.
The Liberal Democratic reform is going to achieve nothing. You are never getting mixed member proportional representation (like the system in Germany) because the House of Lords does not care about your beliefs.
The same people who helped Osbornes austerity measures? Do me a favour.
@jean-lucpicard5510 the cuts that were made in 2010 were much closer to the Lib Dem manifesto than the Tories or Labour (who were very similar to each other) were promising.
Having the Lib Dems in a coalition also saw things like the income tax threshold raised from Labour's £6,000 to £12,500 a year among many other progressive policies Labour were against or had spent years refusing to consider in office!!
If this happens, I'd expect parliament to be taking a turn left.
People are clearly sick of a two-party system and I don’t blame them. I don’t feel like either party (labour or conservatives) represents me, I don’t know who to vote for that I’d feel comfortable with.
All of them are so comfortable in their political oligopoly that they all just blend into one grey mess.
You should have looked at the poll resuls in the video. In both, over 2/3 of people favoured one of the two main parties.
Don’t underestimate the LibDems. With Starmer offering nothing more than Tory-lite and his blunder over the Gaza massacre, the LibDems are the best alternative to the Tories, the truly Nasti party.
Look how many seats they came a close 2nd in last time round.
Loving the thumbnail
8:49 Great video as always. You’ve got a small editing mistake at ~8:50, where a line is repeated.
With so many MP's defecting left and right the distinctions between each party is getting more and more blurred, each party is culturally enriching the others.
If tactical voting took place enmasse then that could vastly decrease the amount of tory mps
That requires swaps among supporters.
So this video was not about the Lib Dems, but again on the Tories...
That would just be the icing on the cake
HOPEFULLY.
I dont expect for the Tories to be pushed to 3rd Party status this Election. But the potential is there in the following election for them to drop
It would be GRAND!
I think considering a Labour win is now a forgone conclusion it is easily possible, a lot of people don't want a 200 seat majority for Labour so if they think the Liberal Democrats could advance to 2nd place in terms of seat numbers we could see a huge shift in votes from both main parties to the Liberal Democrats. I still personally don't trust Labour or Starmer and knowing that the Conservatives are out anyway I might just go for the Liberal Democrats as at this point we have nothing to lose by voting for them since Labour have won anyway.
Sounds like a very sensible position to take.
Green Party and Lib Dems should get together and make a baby called Green Liberal Democrats (GLD) with a green liberty bird facing to the left for left wing.
The problem is the Lib Dem’s are even more right wing than starmers labour
I think it’s more likely they might make some sort of pact. Like not to stand against one another in seats where they are 1st or 2nd placed party.
😂 won't it just be the Albania flag with different colour palettes
@@lordhenrywotton95 I think the Lib Dems already do that. In the two seats where the Greens threaten(or are already above) Labour, the Lib Dems did not stand at the last election and I would not be surprised if the LDs did not stand candidates in those places again this election.
I wish
One way to make it happen!
Hey your end clip seems to be glitching
People often forget that in the Westminster System HM's Official opposition is a significant as who are MH Government in shaping the which laws pass and how, and which ammendments get put onto bills and which don't.
I surely hope so, but all these decades of frustration and disappointment teach me not to be optimistic but be cautious about this kind of paradigm shift talk.
It's time for south africa. Labour will be the ANC, Starmer will be zuma, Galloway's party will be the EFF.
I’m not interested in politics, I vote Liberal Democrat
Given the council results and the fact that a lot of the seats list did not go to Labour it's a probability. That said Labour may have to enter a coalition to govern.
Awesome thanks. Yes Liberal Democrats could be second in mores seats to conservative party uk general election. Tories have 300 British MP's England. That 1931 uk general election Labour party it be like National government in 1931.
Lib Dems need to shout about their Pro EU policy, there is nearly a super majority for Rejoining in the country, offer a proper choice from the pro Brexit Conservatives and Labour parties.
Rejoining right now woukd be counterproductive, as we would have very little negotiating power and would likely make our situation even worse. We need to stay out of the EU for at least 10 years before considering rejoining
Before Brexit, Britain had favoured nation status in the EU, including not being part of the Eurozone. Rejoining won’t bring with it those same concessions. More likely, Britain’s status will be akin to that of Spain or Portugal. I reckon rejoining is inevitable, but Europe will not make it easy next time round
"Things can still get worse for the Tories" is a truly poetic phrase with no equal.
No mention of tactical voting
After 4 years of labour - I guarantee you’ll vote for anyone .
There's a very important fourth factor that you didn't mention: an unusually large number of voters voting tactically.
I have no idea how Farage manages to finesse the British public every time, then leave when he's f'ed everything up without taking any responsibility and yet people still view him as someone worth listening to.
Because Nigel Farage is just like the British public, nationalistic, arrogant and stupid. I'm actually expecting him to knock out the Tories and make Reform the 2 largest party... if our election ever happens and our dictators stop delaying our elections because they're neo-feudalist oligarchs.
That would be a disaster for Britain for any party to have virtually complete control like that. I sincerely hope it doesn't materialise !
I became a lib dem member this year. Even if they don't win, I can be happy voting for who I want rather than stopping who I don't want.
It doesn't matter who the conservative leader is; the people are fed up with them!!!
Since coalition governments can be a thing, can there be a coalition opposition? For example, if some combination of Lib Dems + SNP + Green was greater than the number of Tory seats, could the Lib Dems/SNP/Green form a coalition opposition?
I would love a lib dem opposition, we might actually get some slightly more progressive policies passed
As an aussie with an interest in psephology, it confuses me so much that the UK still uses first-past-the-post and not preferential voting
It's a shame Maggie isn't still around to see this
She said Blair was her greatest achievement and Starmer is to his right so she'd be thrilled
Are these seats all in England. I suspect that the SnP may still take a large number of seats in Scotland where the voting trends are different
The SNP is collapsing in polling in Scotland
Currently the SNP will be 2nd in Scotland with between 15 and 25 seats according to most Scottish polling.
It depends whether John Swinney can turn around the SNPs declining support. But as he's appointed the Tartan Tory Kate Forbes as his deputy it might prove more challenging than SNP supporters would hope
@@jamescole1314 that won’t happen at the election. The pro Indy is still sitting between 45-52%. When it comes to election time that may be the deciding factor for Westminster seats. Giving the fact that the pro Union vote will be split between Labour, Lib Dem and con that is why so many seats go to the SNP.
@@notinuse3872 SNP may be out of favour but the Pro Indy support isn’t. And for the last decade that is what Scotland has voted on.
The Highlands might return to their classic lib dem vote
This would be the absolute best case scenario for this country. 5 whole years without the Tories even as the opposition party. Things might actually improve!
Maybe we’ll see the Tories get behind electoral reform, proportional representation!
Starmer is not liked at all and we have no idea what his policies will be. There's a real chance he will do more of a Kinnock 92 than a Blair 97. Especially if the election is conducted in January with Trump as President-elect :)
I don't see the Lib Dems surpassing the Tories. A lot can happen before election night, and there's almost always some form of correction.
If the election were held right now, this is my estimation:
Labour: ~410 seats
Conservatives: ~150 seats
Lib. Dems: ~50 seats
SNP: ~20 seats
Others: ~20 seats (Nationalists & Unionists from N. Ireland & Wales + Speaker)
Very unlikely, IMHO.
The question is not LibDems overtaking Sunak but the Tories. The Tories just change the fall guy (PM) but the decision makers remain the same. People start to see this through. It is not enough to swap the PM and then reshuffle the cabinet but everyone keeps milking the ordinary people's money (taxes) and tell lies, break laws.
Hilarious that the tories try to blame rishi sunak for the poor performance like they didn't just have 4 failed prime ministers in a row
Having the Tories completely out of politics and not even in opposition would be such an amazing turn for Britain. We could advance so quickly without them holding us back
Hopefully…
Yes please!
Thanks for talking about the lib dems, I have not heard anyone cover them.
It always confuses me that "reform" is a far right part. Like that seems like the opposite of what the right wants to do
He has said we will have a GE "at some point in the latter half of the year". You know, some point, not like it's important.
(Sees thumbnail.) I understood that reference.
Now we need the same results for GOP across the ocean.
ZERO SEATS!
Not many people give the conservatives credit but they are really quite smart, they always figure out the worst possible decision and take it without fail
That would be great. Two party politics without the tories would be refreshing.
They sided with the Tories in the coalition,which was disgusting.