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Also imagine someone accidentally sends the booster to the wrong tower one day. Like oops there was a billion dollar satellite on our landing spot. This is just a joke btw
Anyone else remember getting banned from r/SpaceX for suggesting they catch the rocket with a robot arm? It was literally a rule. Pepperidge farms remembers.
@@Britonbear For us yeah. But media around the world would say things like SpaceX rocket exploded again this time on the launch side etc.. I can still remeber the news article of flight 4...
@@johnvriezen4696 All of these tests will be largley forgotten by the general public when the first landings on the Moon and Mars happen. People like us will remember the test campaign, but the majority of people aren't even aware Starship exists. Far too busy worried about sportsball.
@@smugfrog8111 yeah thats the most frustrating thing, spacex is doing all the incredible revolutianary things and all of my familly and firends dont even know it exists
Until the next most interesting and important moment in spaceflight history. Things are moving very fast in today's world. I'm 56 yo and although I missed the moon landings, I do remember how exciting it was to watch the Space Shuttles, but now that we're back in the space race, I can only imagine the excitement of my parents generation with the first manned flights and moon landings.
ayyy thanks for saying calm 😂 I appreciate that, I've been trying harder and harder to just be myself on camera and not acting like some hype man or something and this feels so much more natural to me and hopefully to my viewers as well. Thanks for saying something 🙏
This short 10-15 minute informative content is the reason I subscribed to your channel 6 years ago. Please make more of it again. I don’t have time to watch 1 hour videos
the thing with the deluge is if that cold plate gets any damage from those engines they have to be replaced. firing the deluge ensures no debris enters those holes and to prevent any material oblation
@@cube2fox I would expect the IR flash from the fireball after a crash and any puddle fires to be the biggest risks to the launch complex. Running the Deluge would help with both. The launch mount is built THICK out of cheap steel so dents should just be an annoyance.
Also, although nothing can be done about the sonic boom, the deluge firing will dampen the noise a bit and help dissipate the heat the back end of a returning booster will have.
The sound, the music, the mixing, perfect leveling. Your voice is clearly heard over the music, the music completely matches the theme of your channel, is has a decent bass as well. This also goes for the rest of the video, where you talk over launch sounds etc. I know this comment is petty, but I am just literally completely impressed.
It’s honestly just the most hardcore way of weight savings there is, the booster has no deployment legs, so instead of crushing the rockets if they tried to land it, they are just gunna catch it. Maximum performance to weight ratio.. I love it.
but how is catching a booster going to help them with getting to mars? Isnt that what starship is all about? getting humans to mars? There is no OLM or Tower on mars so how is catching a booster furthering the goal of getting humans to mars and colonizing it?
@@Nunya-py2vj There will be no boosters on Mars. Only the upper ship with legs... gravity on Mars is about one third of what we have here on earth. These are still crude prototype pathfinders to prove concepts and solutions for a very complex problem.
@@manuelsilva8640 I think it also has to do with what they keep on saying about mass to orbit. I’m just imagining those shots of starships from startrek or something, where they have these crazy big ships, and the only way to build something like that is getting as much tonnage to orbit to start to build such a colossus
Of course getting people _to_ Mars is not as hard as bringing them _back,_ which you do want a system in place for. The early Starships to Mars will be unmanned and never return.
With the decline of NASA missions I really didn’t have much hope for space travel / science but man does SpaceX make the space kid in me so giddy. If they fail it’s merely a setback not a failure because it’s all progress.
But remember, just like Starlink, SpaceX's plans for Starship are largely for their own private launch missions (eventually) so whether or not NASA declines Starship will lead the way for human space exploration!!!
Let’s not forget that attempting to catch the starship booster: it’s a prototype, and bring a prototype it’s a planned learning event …failure is a learning event.
This fact is lost on the general public and most of the media. All they tend to see is failure not progress. Space X is revolutionary in pushing aerospace boundaries.
How about "Two Finger Salute to All Other Rocket Companies." I vote in favour of your "A Momentary Lapse Of Sanity" Or, in honour of how they got their name "Man Who Catch Fly With Chopstick, Accomplish Anything" Scene from The Karate Kid (1984) with Pat Morita and Ralph Macchio. RIP Noriyuki Morita (Pat) June 28, 1932 - November 24, 2005 (aged 73)
@@David-yo5ws The drone ships are named after spacecraft from Ian M. Banks's Culture series. I think some other good options would be: Flexible Demeanour, The Hand of God, Prime Mover, Well I Was In The Neighbourhood, You'll Thank Me Later.
If they get the GO to attempt the catch, I think they have a good chance. It's the Starship reentry that required exploring new regimes of plasma physics, so I think that is technically much more difficult. Catching the booster is more of an epically cool stunt though.
I think there's probably a 1% chance of a major explosion at the tower, a 39% chance of a divert to sea and explosion on the water, and a 60% chance of a mostly successful catch. I really would trust the SpaceX flight computer to divert if there's a problem, but I think there's something like a 95% chance of a divert to the water for one crash landing in the first 10 attempts. I'd bet they get something working on the first one, then delete something they think is waste that turns out to have been important and have to add it back in.
Those moments where your jaw hits the floor because something unbelievable is happening during a Starship launch are the best. Lots of potential for those in this launch. Sunday can't come fast enough.
I honestly think they have a good chance of catching it, if they go for the catch attempt this time. I saw Ift1 & 2 in person, every time they've learned and gotten better from every launch. It truly is inspiring watching what many would seem impossible become regular
the fact this might actually happen is insane. I fully expect a giant explosion or something along those lines. But if they actually pull it off, it'll be one of the greatest achievements in rocketry
The biggest danger to the launch site for catching boosters is the close proximity of the tank farm. Even if it’s mostly empty like the booster, the damage could be a major setback. I assume they must already be planning for a totally different tank farm design for the kind of launch cadence they are hoping for. If they want to achieve airline-like operations then they will get airline-like crashes, most likely in close proximity to the tower.
@@NonSensewithnosense Yep, and an off course booster that blows up and veers off course can land right on it. They’ve done the minimal amount of effort on the system as needed so far, which is exactly how you develop something. I’m just curious what they will build when they are launching and landing one every couple days. Nothing that we are looking at now is finished hardware, not the rocket, ship, launch mount, tower, or tank farm.
Mostly empty tanks, & even half-empty tanks, are weaker than full tanks. Pressurized tanks are much stronger than unpressurized tanks. An adult can stand on an unopened beer or soda can, but empty (or opened) cans will crush under a child's weight. Plus the tank farm is protected by a big concrete wall. It will be fine.
I am just happy they are so public with the testing and we get to see all this good and bad. I get more excited over these tests than just about anything else you can watch.
@@conor43421 The Chinese do a great job in their mountainous launch site at the Xichang Satellite Launch Center. Not that I am advocating for Starbase to move to the Sierra Nevada Mountains. 😁
If all the engines perform successfully, I think the catch will work. SpaceX knows how to steer a rocket - the suicide slam of the Falcon 9 is much harder, IMO.
This is going to be an epic event. With the genesis of the SpaceX team performing a historical achievement, i would guess 75-80 % success. Either way, I'm sure I will be screaming with joy for the exploration of space.
Yep. For all the hype and exaggeration he brings to other things, Musk is always careful to manage expectations for test flights... e.g. the goal for IFT1 was "to clear the tower, and see how far we go from there".
Hey! Hope you see this! I want to see someone explain SpaceX current process of preparing a falcon booster for flight. How much refurbishment is needed exactly? Can't recall ever seeing a recent video detailing this process. Thanks!
The reason you haven't seen any video - or even detailed explanation - is that it's a complex and time-consuming process. Not at all 'as advertised'. Lot of things have to be checked and tested - some things need replacing. And, of course, the booster has to be transported to the factory first - which takes days. A very long way from the 'rapid re-use' that Musk claims. And I don't see the Starship booster being much different. Are they really going to be able to check/repair/replace (and refuel!), while it hangs thee on the tower? Another Musk fantasy, I'm afraid.
@@paulhaynes8045 OFFS! The design of the Chopsticks is such, that they can rotate the Super Heavy Booster and place it in the OLM. Then they have the 'Dance Floor' that can be raised underneath to carry out an inspection. The aim is a 4 hour turn-a-round in the long term. In the short term, they will need to do a lot of checks. But the clean Methane/LOX burning, means they do not have to clean the Raptor Engines, unlike the Kero/LOX Merlin engines, that have to be 'de-coked' of the soot residue. Also the development of the Version 3 Raptor Engine, means less parts and bolted sections. This makes it more reliable (one would hope) and faster to check over. I don't know where you get the idea that it 'hangs there on the tower" from?
@@David-yo5ws we shall see. If it works like the F9, brilliant, but I suspect it will 'work' like most of his ideas - fantasy engineering, chasing nonexistent requirements, with unworkable 'solutions'. Even if it does work, it's pointless without Starship, and the chances of that ever being human rated are zero. I'm also far from convinced there is much of a requirement for such a heavy lifter. Even the 'successful' F9 has spent most of its time putting Starlink satellites up. Without that, it's commercial logic would be very different.
@@paulhaynes8045 Yes, we shall see. Note, that SpaceX will be using the Starship, to launch their large V2 Starlinks. These are too big to fit on Falcon9. Essentially I look at these rockets, like transport trucks. This is like building a long flat deck transporter to carry a Komatsu D575A-3 Super Dozer. Used in mining operations. I expect to see larger communication satellites, with larger solar panels and xenon fuel tanks to make them last longer. If the development succeeds....
@@paulhaynes8045 Starlink doesn't just need 'putting up', it needs upkeep, and it probably won't get smaller as an 'installation'. That means more work (lifting replacements), forever, as 'public Internet satellites' are unlikely to have very long lives. Going from F9 to Starship is like any other successful company upgrading its delivery fleet from vans to lorries. That may be a mundane point to make, given the scale of monies involved, but it seems inescapable?
Deadass this is one of the biggest tests in aeronautical history. No rocket has even been physically captured intact in this manner. To be able to land falcon 9 boosters was a historical event. This right here if successful will eclipse that and anything like it.
IFT-5 is returning from a greater ballistic peak altitude than IFT-4. That fact is the reason that the physics illiterate FAA delegated _Fish and Wildlife_ with approving the wider sonic boom area.
SpaceX doesn't just think outside of the box, they threw the box away a long time ago. They get more done in one day that most other companies/agency get done in a year. Tim, thanks for your always very informative videos.
I prefer to destroy a few test boosters to figure out a new future of exploration, rather than destroy humanity ourselves otherwise, as we tend to operate as humans on Earth. Great job SpaceX and Tim!
nice. pls make more longer videos goinbg in depth on stuff again. maybe start your own model rocket program of something. your content taught me 50% of my space knowledge and i think you can teach more. i am rewatching all of your explanation videos again because i think i am getting rusty. awseome video and sound!
I’ve been working on an almost two hour long video for almost 6 months now. Long videos take a very long time. This video took me 2 days 😂 but I think the long videos are worth it for the greater good. Anyone can make a short video like this
I'll give it a 5% chance of failure prior to completed boostback burn, a 40% chance of early abort, where it doesn't get anywhere near the tower, a 20% chance of a late abort, where it fires up the engines, sees things going wrong and then flies off into the water instead, a 10% chance of attempted but failed landing, and a 25% chance of successful landing. And I'll define a successful landing as one where they end the flight suspended from the chocksticks without explosions. Some damage to the booster is acceptable. Will be interesting to see how it goes. Hopefully they get approval for Sunday - that still doesn't seem completely definite.
@@dogbreath6974 Some people would actually consider me wildly optimistic. But I try to be realistic. And if I am too pessimistic, I'll be pleasantly surprised!
If this actually happens, it will be one of the greatest achievements in the last hundred years. If it doesn’t happen, the explosion could be legendary
I had no idea of the accuracy of the last test landing, if they hit their target within ONE CENTIMETER then barring any mechanical/performance snafus I'm willing to bet they stick this catch on the first try ;?)
It mostly comes down to engine reliability during the landing burn. Looks like the hot staging separation is set to be more gentle than ever. That is likely [in order] to coddle the center three booster engines, which are essential for catch reliability.
That is the 64 million dollar question, yeah. Best guess is that while FAA coordinates air space usage, NASA or the DoD can also certify the vehicle for launch without the FAA approving the hardware.
Government agencies like to under-promise and over-deliver, quite opposed to Elon's boundless optimism. They sell you the worst-case timelines as the best-case timelines so that they can have as much time as they need to handle any curveballs.
I love seeing a new AA video notification! If I could make one suggestion, Tim, it's that a "CGI" banner on rendered scenes would help avoid confusion because they are so convincing. Long time space enthusiasts (like most of us here) know what's real and what's not but I think casual viewers could be confused seeing the booster get caught like it's already happened.
Giant explosion? No, but falling from a missed catch and then maybe a smallish explosion seems likely. I can’t say how much damage that would represent, of course, but it does seem like it could lead to quite a delay.
@@maxsk9074that helps, but I suspect that the FAA will also want some sort of report about damage caused by an incident on land. But maybe I’m wrong about that?
@@nathanpowell195 the FAA only let falcon fly after that first failure because it didn’t put the launchpad or civilians at risk, so I’m assuming they’re going to be all over starship, maybe to the point of grounding it
@@maxsk9074 Second tower is probably 6-12 months away from being capable of supporting launches. But a missed catch just isn't that likely to cause enough damage to delay things that much. I'd guess 1-2 months.
Well, it's just the first working version of a prototype booster, and will soon be obsolete. Also, they expect to loose some boosters. That's why so many more SH boosters and Starships are in the production "pipeline".
Awesome music throughout this video - I often forget about Tim's musical endeavours! Presumably the band playing in the footage of the Astro Awards is Everyday Astronaut?
This may not work perfectly the first time. But i believe they will Crack this Nutt eventually. SpaceX has no fear. But who knows? Maybe this works the first time? We'll see.
Thanks Tim, your explanation makes me feel slightly better about the upcoming launch, and catch. Also all additional strengthening of the tower helps too. BUT THANKS TIM! GOOD JOB!
the positioning system is not purely satellite based but also uses inertial measurement systems as well as potentially ground/water based systems but that said i do think its likely he meant half a metwer based purely on the fact that half a centimeter on the first landing attempt would be an insane improvement over f9s capabilities despite a much larger vehicle
They never nail it on the first try, i wish they could but i think something especifically will go wrong then they will fix it for the 2nd try and succeed
They didn't expect flight 4 to go as well as it did, so they bumped up the catch attempt from flight 6 to flight 5. While the likelihood of it aborting into the ocean is certainly there, you never know how it'll go.
Instead of labelling somebody crazy, you need to understand who exactly populism appeals to and why. There is a ton of knowledge on this in socio-political psychology. It primarily stems from alienization and dismissal of legitimate concerns as craziness, exactly as you are doing right now.
Elon needs to get out of politics and put that time and energy back into SpaceX where he knows what he’s talking about and is making a real difference.
He's trying to save us from having our country destroyed by these idiots running things now. Unless you think that allowing millions per year of people, including criminals and gang members to walk in illegally and unvetted, and for them to to all get on welfare funded by taxpayers is not a problem. Instead of using our normal immigration system that already legally allows a million people a year in after an actual vetting process. Then there's the whole issue of these people trying to effectively eliminate the first amendment. Right now we are the only country with actual freedom of speech and most of us would like to keep it that way.
Go to ground.news/everydayastronaut to stay informed on SpaceX and all things space with a balanced perspective to form your own conclusions. Subscribe through my link to get 40% off unlimited access with the Vantage Plan this month.
I wonder if those early flight tests were to help develop the software to control the part where the booster scoots towards the arms
Also imagine someone accidentally sends the booster to the wrong tower one day. Like oops there was a billion dollar satellite on our landing spot. This is just a joke btw
Anyone else remember getting banned from r/SpaceX for suggesting they catch the rocket with a robot arm?
It was literally a rule.
Pepperidge farms remembers.
@@jtjames79Wow, just had that same idea, Tesla bot and all, the tech is there, right? Operator controlled with a joystick. Musk work! 😅
8:26 i suppose in case it fails to catch could also decrease damage from explosion greatly
Either way this will be one of the most memorable flight tests
Excitement guaranteed
Yeah whatever happens it will be hailed as a great success.
Absolutely - let's just hope that the chances of an RUD upon landing is lower than it may first appear.
@@Britonbear For us yeah. But media around the world would say things like SpaceX rocket exploded again this time on the launch side etc..
I can still remeber the news article of flight 4...
@@Ri_Shin_Marco You misunderstand me. I am not one of 'us'.
If they succeed, it's revolutionary, if they fail, it's spectacular. It's a win-win.
And if they decide to ditch in the ocean it won't be memorable.
@@johnvriezen4696 All of these tests will be largley forgotten by the general public when the first landings on the Moon and Mars happen. People like us will remember the test campaign, but the majority of people aren't even aware Starship exists. Far too busy worried about sportsball.
Excitement is guaranteed, as Elon says
@@smugfrog8111 yeah thats the most frustrating thing, spacex is doing all the incredible revolutianary things and all of my familly and firends dont even know it exists
@@Nuke-MarsXyeah
This is going to be one of the the most interesting and important moments in spaceflight history
Godspeed Starship
Until the next most interesting and important moment in spaceflight history. Things are moving very fast in today's world. I'm 56 yo and although I missed the moon landings, I do remember how exciting it was to watch the Space Shuttles, but now that we're back in the space race, I can only imagine the excitement of my parents generation with the first manned flights and moon landings.
@@rolandtobiasz let’s hope to see a moon base and or a manned mars landing in our lifetime
Yes yes. Godspeed Starship. 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
@@rolandtobiasz I’m 59 and I definitely remember Apollo 15, 16, and 17. What about recalling Skylab and Apollo/Soyuz?
i really love these calm, explainative videos!
ayyy thanks for saying calm 😂 I appreciate that, I've been trying harder and harder to just be myself on camera and not acting like some hype man or something and this feels so much more natural to me and hopefully to my viewers as well. Thanks for saying something 🙏
@@EverydayAstronautits great, you sound enthusiastic but not loud or panicked or anything
@@EverydayAstronautSpaceX doesn't need a hype man anyway. They just keep doing the "impossible" with exciting explosions along the way!
Likewise, seem further and further apart these days. Nsf have great regular content
@@EverydayAstronaut thats definetly the way, at least for me! Nobody needs an overacting hype man 😁
This short 10-15 minute informative content is the reason I subscribed to your channel 6 years ago. Please make more of it again. I don’t have time to watch 1 hour videos
coming back to this video, just after they catched it on the first try is absolutely insane
And now the thumbnail is of the real thing lol
Wow I miss analysis of this kind from you Tim ! No one does it like you do .
cis star base i like and scott but Tim is my go to.
the thing with the deluge is if that cold plate gets any damage from those engines they have to be replaced. firing the deluge ensures no debris enters those holes and to prevent any material oblation
Good point. Perhaps it's also meant to mitigate the explosion in case the catch fails?
oooo both excellent points!
@@cube2fox I would expect the IR flash from the fireball after a crash and any puddle fires to be the biggest risks to the launch complex. Running the Deluge would help with both. The launch mount is built THICK out of cheap steel so dents should just be an annoyance.
Also, although nothing can be done about the sonic boom, the deluge firing will dampen the noise a bit and help dissipate the heat the back end of a returning booster will have.
Yes, but what about the environmental impact from all that dihydrogen oxide?
The sound, the music, the mixing, perfect leveling. Your voice is clearly heard over the music, the music completely matches the theme of your channel, is has a decent bass as well. This also goes for the rest of the video, where you talk over launch sounds etc. I know this comment is petty, but I am just literally completely impressed.
The music is terrible!!!
And he made the music himself!
I listened to this video in my studio with big speakers and I also immediately noticed how well the audio is done. Hat of to the audio engineer.
Good audio mixing is always appreciated. Many get it wrong.
@@EaglePickingTim is a musician and audiophile. His audio mix has always been one of the strongest parts of his channel.
It’s honestly just the most hardcore way of weight savings there is, the booster has no deployment legs, so instead of crushing the rockets if they tried to land it, they are just gunna catch it. Maximum performance to weight ratio.. I love it.
but how is catching a booster going to help them with getting to mars? Isnt that what starship is all about? getting humans to mars? There is no OLM or Tower on mars so how is catching a booster furthering the goal of getting humans to mars and colonizing it?
@@Nunya-py2vj There will be no boosters on Mars. Only the upper ship with legs... gravity on Mars is about one third of what we have here on earth. These are still crude prototype pathfinders to prove concepts and solutions for a very complex problem.
@@manuelsilva8640 I think it also has to do with what they keep on saying about mass to orbit. I’m just imagining those shots of starships from startrek or something, where they have these crazy big ships, and the only way to build something like that is getting as much tonnage to orbit to start to build such a colossus
Of course getting people _to_ Mars is not as hard as bringing them _back,_ which you do want a system in place for.
The early Starships to Mars will be unmanned and never return.
@@michaelmicek of course elon could send the robots he debuted on X ahead of humans to get a place setup for humans possibly
THEY DID ITTT
"in thrust we trust"
fr
‘There is no replacement for thrust’
and also "in Musk we trust"
In Jesus loosers
@@rickandelon9374 Uhhm, u sure about that haha 😂
THEY DID IT
It worked! This is the kind of people we need leading our countries!
its a good day when tim uploads a new video
With the decline of NASA missions I really didn’t have much hope for space travel / science but man does SpaceX make the space kid in me so giddy.
If they fail it’s merely a setback not a failure because it’s all progress.
But remember, just like Starlink, SpaceX's plans for Starship are largely for their own private launch missions (eventually) so whether or not NASA declines Starship will lead the way for human space exploration!!!
It worked. I am blown away.
Let’s not forget that attempting to catch the starship booster: it’s a prototype, and bring a prototype it’s a planned learning event …failure is a learning event.
This fact is lost on the general public and most of the media. All they tend to see is failure not progress. Space X is revolutionary in pushing aerospace boundaries.
Who’s here after they caught it?
Hi
It was beyond amazing!!!!
Yo
Excitement guaranteed
If they succeed the towers require their own proper names, just like the barges. I vote for "So Much For Subtlety" and "A Momentary Lapse Of Sanity".
How about "Two Finger Salute to All Other Rocket Companies." I vote in favour of your "A Momentary Lapse Of Sanity"
Or, in honour of how they got their name "Man Who Catch Fly With Chopstick, Accomplish Anything" Scene from The Karate Kid (1984) with Pat Morita and Ralph Macchio.
RIP Noriyuki Morita (Pat) June 28, 1932 - November 24, 2005 (aged 73)
@@David-yo5ws The drone ships are named after spacecraft from Ian M. Banks's Culture series. I think some other good options would be: Flexible Demeanour, The Hand of God, Prime Mover, Well I Was In The Neighbourhood, You'll Thank Me Later.
And if it *doesn't* succeed, they can go with names like "Only Slightly Bent", "Teething Problems", or "Don't Try This At Home".
@@simongeard4824 😂
@@simongeard4824 🤣Imagine hearing that:- "Only slightly Bent" every time they talk about a catch. Or " I blame your mother"... 😝
You had to drop in "the warm gas thrusters" 😂
Wouldn't you, if you were him?
Can’t wait to watch this after work. Getting pretty hyped for Sunday!!!!
They did it.
If they get the GO to attempt the catch, I think they have a good chance. It's the Starship reentry that required exploring new regimes of plasma physics, so I think that is technically much more difficult. Catching the booster is more of an epically cool stunt though.
Looking forward to seeing this happen!!!
I think there's probably a 1% chance of a major explosion at the tower, a 39% chance of a divert to sea and explosion on the water, and a 60% chance of a mostly successful catch. I really would trust the SpaceX flight computer to divert if there's a problem, but I think there's something like a 95% chance of a divert to the water for one crash landing in the first 10 attempts. I'd bet they get something working on the first one, then delete something they think is waste that turns out to have been important and have to add it back in.
85% of statistics are made up on the spot 😏
It’s a manual command actually before BB burn ends!
@@callenvlogs5989 you actually didnt respond to what he said
Only 1% chance of explosion at the tower is way too low!
80% of statistics are made up on the fly.
Those moments where your jaw hits the floor because something unbelievable is happening during a Starship launch are the best. Lots of potential for those in this launch. Sunday can't come fast enough.
I honestly think they have a good chance of catching it, if they go for the catch attempt this time. I saw Ift1 & 2 in person, every time they've learned and gotten better from every launch. It truly is inspiring watching what many would seem impossible become regular
They have done it !!!
the fact this might actually happen is insane. I fully expect a giant explosion or something along those lines. But if they actually pull it off, it'll be one of the greatest achievements in rocketry
As Elon would say, "success is at least one of the potential outcomes".
The biggest danger to the launch site for catching boosters is the close proximity of the tank farm. Even if it’s mostly empty like the booster, the damage could be a major setback. I assume they must already be planning for a totally different tank farm design for the kind of launch cadence they are hoping for. If they want to achieve airline-like operations then they will get airline-like crashes, most likely in close proximity to the tower.
They need under ground tanks.
Yeah, that is a big potential issue.
Edit: though if the guidance is still pretty good if a failure does happen, it might be far enough away.
They already built a giant concrete wall which is separating launch tower and tanks.
@@NonSensewithnosense Yep, and an off course booster that blows up and veers off course can land right on it. They’ve done the minimal amount of effort on the system as needed so far, which is exactly how you develop something. I’m just curious what they will build when they are launching and landing one every couple days. Nothing that we are looking at now is finished hardware, not the rocket, ship, launch mount, tower, or tank farm.
Mostly empty tanks, & even half-empty tanks, are weaker than full tanks. Pressurized tanks are much stronger than unpressurized tanks. An adult can stand on an unopened beer or soda can, but empty (or opened) cans will crush under a child's weight. Plus the tank farm is protected by a big concrete wall. It will be fine.
Attaching landing gear to a rocket was crazy enough. Now they're doing it without the landing gear.
It's going to be epic!!!
I can't believe it. I stand corrected
As always, thank you for your clear and concise explanation of this craziness. "Go Starship"
I am just happy they are so public with the testing and we get to see all this good and bad. I get more excited over these tests than just about anything else you can watch.
It's not like they can keep it a secret 🤦
@@conor43421 can't you hide the thing someone's backyard🤣
@@conor43421 The Chinese do a great job in their mountainous launch site at the Xichang Satellite Launch Center.
Not that I am advocating for Starbase to move to the Sierra Nevada Mountains. 😁
If all the engines perform successfully, I think the catch will work. SpaceX knows how to steer a rocket - the suicide slam of the Falcon 9 is much harder, IMO.
This is going to be an epic event. With the genesis of the SpaceX team performing a historical achievement, i would guess 75-80 % success. Either way, I'm sure I will be screaming with joy for the exploration of space.
Ayyyyy, love the new quick intro, short and sweet
I think that SpaceX understands the Law of the Demo:
Never precede any demonstration with a statement more specific than, "Watch this".
Yep. For all the hype and exaggeration he brings to other things, Musk is always careful to manage expectations for test flights... e.g. the goal for IFT1 was "to clear the tower, and see how far we go from there".
Success!!!!
You've gotten so far cuz of your own hard work my frend! keep it up pls
Hey! Hope you see this! I want to see someone explain SpaceX current process of preparing a falcon booster for flight. How much refurbishment is needed exactly?
Can't recall ever seeing a recent video detailing this process. Thanks!
The reason you haven't seen any video - or even detailed explanation - is that it's a complex and time-consuming process. Not at all 'as advertised'. Lot of things have to be checked and tested - some things need replacing. And, of course, the booster has to be transported to the factory first - which takes days. A very long way from the 'rapid re-use' that Musk claims. And I don't see the Starship booster being much different. Are they really going to be able to check/repair/replace (and refuel!), while it hangs thee on the tower? Another Musk fantasy, I'm afraid.
@@paulhaynes8045 OFFS! The design of the Chopsticks is such, that they can rotate the Super Heavy Booster and place it in the OLM. Then they have the 'Dance Floor' that can be raised underneath to carry out an inspection. The aim is a 4 hour turn-a-round in the long term. In the short term, they will need to do a lot of checks. But the clean Methane/LOX burning, means they do not have to clean the Raptor Engines, unlike the Kero/LOX Merlin engines, that have to be 'de-coked' of the soot residue. Also the development of the Version 3 Raptor Engine, means less parts and bolted sections. This makes it more reliable (one would hope) and faster to check over.
I don't know where you get the idea that it 'hangs there on the tower" from?
@@David-yo5ws we shall see. If it works like the F9, brilliant, but I suspect it will 'work' like most of his ideas - fantasy engineering, chasing nonexistent requirements, with unworkable 'solutions'.
Even if it does work, it's pointless without Starship, and the chances of that ever being human rated are zero.
I'm also far from convinced there is much of a requirement for such a heavy lifter. Even the 'successful' F9 has spent most of its time putting Starlink satellites up. Without that, it's commercial logic would be very different.
@@paulhaynes8045 Yes, we shall see.
Note, that SpaceX will be using the Starship, to launch their large V2 Starlinks. These are too big to fit on Falcon9.
Essentially I look at these rockets, like transport trucks. This is like building a long flat deck transporter to carry a Komatsu D575A-3 Super Dozer. Used in mining operations. I expect to see larger communication satellites, with larger solar panels and xenon fuel tanks to make them last longer. If the development succeeds....
@@paulhaynes8045 Starlink doesn't just need 'putting up', it needs upkeep, and it probably won't get smaller as an 'installation'. That means more work (lifting replacements), forever, as 'public Internet satellites' are unlikely to have very long lives. Going from F9 to Starship is like any other successful company upgrading its delivery fleet from vans to lorries. That may be a mundane point to make, given the scale of monies involved, but it seems inescapable?
Deadass this is one of the biggest tests in aeronautical history. No rocket has even been physically captured intact in this manner. To be able to land falcon 9 boosters was a historical event. This right here if successful will eclipse that and anything like it.
Try balancing a broomstick and you can appreciate the accuracy to stop all that inertia of a massive cylinder to a complete stop.
It's a lot easier for a computer to process than a human, plus a broomstick has no gimble controlled thrust.
I cannot believe that worked so well!
In addition to the stainless steel construction, I believe Super Heavy enters the atmosphere at a lower velocity than the Falcon 9.
IFT-5 is returning from a greater ballistic peak altitude than IFT-4. That fact is the reason that the physics illiterate FAA delegated _Fish and Wildlife_ with approving the wider sonic boom area.
Thank you Tim! Excellent video! Fascinating and well produced!
SpaceX doesn't just think outside of the box, they threw the box away a long time ago. They get more done in one day that most other companies/agency get done in a year. Tim, thanks for your always very informative videos.
They literally live outside the box, so SpaceX just looks down on the box and laughs ;?D
Nice analysis Tim! Always a great day when the Everyday Astronaut posts!
It worked!!!!!
I prefer to destroy a few test boosters to figure out a new future of exploration, rather than destroy humanity ourselves otherwise, as we tend to operate as humans on Earth. Great job SpaceX and Tim!
The current configuration of starship has approximately 83,500,000 pancakes of thrust
Canadian or IHOP?
It's gonna be great. Launch a 5 story building and catch it as is tries to land at the same tower it lifted off from. It's gonna be great to see
well well well
If they are able to do this it will be one of the most impressive things any of us have ever seen.
ha ha famous last words ==> "How could this possibly work?"
Thank you and team for putting this together!
Great video
You have the best content of any space RUclipsr. Thank you for what you do Tim!
SpaceX, place a booey in the Indian Ocean and give us starship landing views.. and my life will be yours!
Maybe they did so already the last times, only the ship so far never made it to the exact landing location!
They probably have been doing that with the last couple launches. But IFT-3 never made it down, and IFT-4 was 6 Km's off from where it was expected.
It's a night landing, so the view might be poor. Hoping for good lighting.
No over dramatisation, pure facts and engineering. Another great video Tim
They just did it so you can stop calling it absurd since it is now part of the history of human space flight.
Even though they did it this morning on the first try, it's still absurd that they did it.
What you saw was CGI. The tower is now a pile of rubble and the mission failed spectacularly.
@@actionjksn I literally saw it get caught in person. I am currently in a condo with a view of the tower.
nice. pls make more longer videos goinbg in depth on stuff again. maybe start your own model rocket program of something. your content taught me 50% of my space knowledge and i think you can teach more. i am rewatching all of your explanation videos again because i think i am getting rusty. awseome video and sound!
I’ve been working on an almost two hour long video for almost 6 months now. Long videos take a very long time. This video took me 2 days 😂 but I think the long videos are worth it for the greater good. Anyone can make a short video like this
@@EverydayAstronaut cant wait for the 2 hour video! I love those!!
I'll give it a 5% chance of failure prior to completed boostback burn, a 40% chance of early abort, where it doesn't get anywhere near the tower, a 20% chance of a late abort, where it fires up the engines, sees things going wrong and then flies off into the water instead, a 10% chance of attempted but failed landing, and a 25% chance of successful landing.
And I'll define a successful landing as one where they end the flight suspended from the chocksticks without explosions. Some damage to the booster is acceptable.
Will be interesting to see how it goes. Hopefully they get approval for Sunday - that still doesn't seem completely definite.
That seems fair.
@spaceadvocate so your feeling optimistic then.😂
@@dogbreath6974 Some people would actually consider me wildly optimistic. But I try to be realistic. And if I am too pessimistic, I'll be pleasantly surprised!
I agree with this numbers, that's about what I'd bet on too - I hope its the 25%!
I'm betting on the median: late abort.
I think they will nail it
SpaceX needs a good catch phrase.
Love the Thumbnail and Video title update 👌🏻😁
It was EPIC!!!
Ryan Hansen is a master at his renders and videography !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It’s going to be absolutely bonkers!!! I’m soo excited to see a catch attempt!!!
If this actually happens, it will be one of the greatest achievements in the last hundred years. If it doesn’t happen, the explosion could be legendary
Even if they get it done, it’s pretty useless. Or at least far from the ridiculous promises Musk made about this thing.
@@angrydoggy9170What are talking about, if they do ir, it is useless. Which planet are you from?
@@viewer_5714 The angrydoggy9170 is just one of those MAGA people who criticize everything and everyone.
@@viewer_5714 Come on. Make an effort. You’re writing English like Musk runs his projects.
The greatest achievements in the last hundred years? What are smoking my friend?
HE DID IT!!!!
It worked
Great explanation, as usual! 🤗
nice
Hello
Excitement guaranteed!
Let’s go!❤
I had no idea of the accuracy of the last test landing, if they hit their target within ONE CENTIMETER then barring any mechanical/performance snafus I'm willing to bet they stick this catch on the first try ;?)
It mostly comes down to engine reliability during the landing burn. Looks like the hot staging separation is set to be more gentle than ever. That is likely [in order] to coddle the center three booster engines, which are essential for catch reliability.
Can someone explain what happened with the FAA? I thought they weren't supposed to launch until late november because of FAA problems
That is the 64 million dollar question, yeah.
Best guess is that while FAA coordinates air space usage, NASA or the DoD can also certify the vehicle for launch without the FAA approving the hardware.
Exactly! Very strange situation.
Government agencies like to under-promise and over-deliver, quite opposed to Elon's boundless optimism. They sell you the worst-case timelines as the best-case timelines so that they can have as much time as they need to handle any curveballs.
@@Pranav_Bhamidipati ...Has this man ever heard of literally any infrastructure project ran by a government agency in the past forever years?
@@goldenfloof5469 probably not. Over-deliver and government agency should not be in the same sentence.
What do you think is harder: Booster Landing or starship Reentry. I am 35(L):65(R) , where 50:50 would be same difficulty. ❤ 🚀
I love seeing a new AA video notification!
If I could make one suggestion, Tim, it's that a "CGI" banner on rendered scenes would help avoid confusion because they are so convincing. Long time space enthusiasts (like most of us here) know what's real and what's not but I think casual viewers could be confused seeing the booster get caught like it's already happened.
Good point!
I was shocked when I first heard about the catch system all those years ago. It's time!
Odds that it actually launches Sunday??
They seem pretty fixated on that date
50/50
If they pull this off…I’m still in awe every time I see a falcon 9 land.
Giant explosion? No, but falling from a missed catch and then maybe a smallish explosion seems likely. I can’t say how much damage that would represent, of course, but it does seem like it could lead to quite a delay.
second tower is pretty much ready right?
@@maxsk9074that helps, but I suspect that the FAA will also want some sort of report about damage caused by an incident on land. But maybe I’m wrong about that?
@@nathanpowell195 the FAA only let falcon fly after that first failure because it didn’t put the launchpad or civilians at risk, so I’m assuming they’re going to be all over starship, maybe to the point of grounding it
@@maxsk9074 Second tower is probably 6-12 months away from being capable of supporting launches.
But a missed catch just isn't that likely to cause enough damage to delay things that much. I'd guess 1-2 months.
Not
Me to my friend -"they will attempt to catch the booster on tower".
My friend " they have the rocket, why are they building another?"
He means Falcon 9?
Well, it's just the first working version of a prototype booster, and will soon be obsolete. Also, they expect to loose some boosters.
That's why so many more SH boosters and Starships are in the production "pipeline".
I fear no man. But that thing scares me.
That looks safer than using the ground as a stop.
And it takes all the most precarious having to balance part out.
I like the intro, that's the soviet shuttle Buran? 0:57
Yup
Energia/Buran
@@ryanrenolds i know it, thank's
@@JesseJames-kv7xc wdym i know it? You literally asked
@@ryanrenolds es una forma de decir.
Awesome music throughout this video - I often forget about Tim's musical endeavours! Presumably the band playing in the footage of the Astro Awards is Everyday Astronaut?
This may not work perfectly the first time. But i believe they will Crack this Nutt eventually. SpaceX has no fear. But who knows? Maybe this works the first time? We'll see.
Thanks Tim, your explanation makes me feel slightly better about the upcoming launch, and catch. Also all additional strengthening of the tower helps too. BUT THANKS TIM! GOOD JOB!
I’m calling bullshit on Bill Gerstenmaier’s claim of “half a centimeter” accuracy. I think it’s likely he misspoke.
I agree, according to what I could find in google now, there are no satellite based positioning systems capable of going below centimeter accuracy 🤔
Yeah. More likely he meant 0.5 meters. Which would still be unusually accurate.
the positioning system is not purely satellite based but also uses inertial measurement systems as well as potentially ground/water based systems but that said i do think its likely he meant half a metwer based purely on the fact that half a centimeter on the first landing attempt would be an insane improvement over f9s capabilities despite a much larger vehicle
@@Janiaje differential gps could have been used as there were buoys positioned in the landing area
@@cube2fox yeah considering the range of movement the chopsticks have half a meter accuracy would be pretty much good as perfect.
They never nail it on the first try, i wish they could but i think something especifically will go wrong then they will fix it for the 2nd try and succeed
My money's on the booster landing in the ocean this time, yeah.
They didn't expect flight 4 to go as well as it did, so they bumped up the catch attempt from flight 6 to flight 5. While the likelihood of it aborting into the ocean is certainly there, you never know how it'll go.
Your ability to predict what will happen is amazing. Congratulations.
Ground News is amazing! First sponsored App ive seen, that is actually useful.
I think Elon could do with ground news to make him stop being crazy.
So hyped for this test flight though!
he isnt crazy
Instead of labelling somebody crazy, you need to understand who exactly populism appeals to and why. There is a ton of knowledge on this in socio-political psychology. It primarily stems from alienization and dismissal of legitimate concerns as craziness, exactly as you are doing right now.
@@snuffeldjuret on everything except space he is
@@Jason-gq8fo no
you just disagree
Thank you, Tim. And good luck with the launch tomorrow, SpaceX.
Elon needs to get out of politics and put that time and energy back into SpaceX where he knows what he’s talking about and is making a real difference.
Nah. Someone powerful needs to fight back against leftist misinformation.
Nah. Someone needs to fight back against misinformation.
He's trying to save us from having our country destroyed by these idiots running things now. Unless you think that allowing millions per year of people, including criminals and gang members to walk in illegally and unvetted, and for them to to all get on welfare funded by taxpayers is not a problem. Instead of using our normal immigration system that already legally allows a million people a year in after an actual vetting process.
Then there's the whole issue of these people trying to effectively eliminate the first amendment. Right now we are the only country with actual freedom of speech and most of us would like to keep it that way.