Bank of Canada risks recession if it waits: Rosenberg
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- Опубликовано: 13 май 2024
- Dylan Smith, vice president and senior economist at Rosenberg Research, talks with Financial Post's Larysa Harapyn about why the Bank of Canada should start cutting rates.
I foresee a recession lasting 2-3 years, and if inflation continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates soon. Inflation is causing various issues worldwide, such as food shortages, scarcities of diesel and heating fuel, and significant spikes in housing prices, leading to a potential financial market crash. This global downturn could have long-lasting repercussions. Given the current inflation rate of approximately 9%, my main worry is how to optimize my savings and retirement fund, which has remained stagnant at around $300,000, yielding almost no gains for quite some time.
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I'm sure the idea of an invstment-Adviser might sound controversial to a few, but a new study by Motley-fool found out that demand for Financial-Advisers sky-rocketed by over 42% since the pandemic and based on firsthand encounter I can say for certain their skillsets are topnotch. I've accrued north of 580k within 16-months from an initially stagnant Portf0lio worth 85k.
my partner’s been considering going the same route, could you share more info please on the advisor that guides you.
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five aiyears now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search for her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
The rising interest rate can surely control inflation, but won't prevent erosion of the eroding purchasing power of the canadian dollar. I have learnt my lesson this time. The banks can't be making money off my money, while inflation eats into it. I have set aside 650k to invest in the stock market now, since that keeps up with inflation, but I don't know how to get started.
Investing without proper guidance can lead to mistakes and losses. I've learned this from my own experience.If you're new to investing or don't have much time, it's best to get advice from an expert.
Keeping money in the bank is like paying banks and the Govemment. Here's how it works: The bank gives out your money as loan, and charge interest obviously higher than inflation rate, and then give you, the depositor, interest lower than inflation rate. That means net loss for you. That is why I prefer to invest, and on average, my advisor makes returns that always beats inflation!
How can one find a verifiable financial planner? I would not mind looking up the professional that helped you. I will be retiring in two years and I might need some management on my much larger portfolio. Don't want to take any chances.
Svetlana Sarkisian Chowdhury is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Bank of Canada has already missed the opportunity to cut. The damage is already done. Tiff and his team should step down.
Indeed, currently I'm managing my finances wisely and being frugal. In the last 19 months, my investments grew by 43%, adding over $650K in profits. However, I've had losses in the past month, making me anxious. I'm unsure whether to sell everything or wait.
I think having an investment advisor is the way to go. I've been with one because I lack the expertise for the market. I made over $490K during the recent dip, highlighting that there's more to the market than we average folks know.
My partner’s been considering going the same route, could you share more info please on the advisor that guides you.
Just research the name Angela Lynn Shilling. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Thank you. I just checked her out now and I've sent an email. I hope she gets back to me soon. I've been thinking of doing this for a long time now, and I've procrastinated enough already.
Money is not meant to control people, rather it is meant to be put to work producing more money for you. You cannot build wealth without putting money in its rightful place.....
People dont understand that the prices of things are never going back down. This inflation is deeper than we think. Those buying groceries are well aware that the real inflation is much over 10%. The increments dont match our income, yet certain investors still earn over $365,000 in stocks and assets. Wish I could accomplish that.
Very possible! especially at this moment. Profits can be made in many different ways, but such intricate transactions should only be handled by seasoned market professionals.
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Brian demonstrates an excellent understanding of market trends, making well informed decisions that leads to consistent profit
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Thanks for the information... I will contact him as soon as possible. I also want to gain good knowledge and stop losing.
Canada is already un recession. And per capita income has dropped drastically which nobody talks about.
Spending and the creation of public service jobs are DIRECTLY inflationary! Kevin O'Leary is absolutely correct about this government.
Kevin O'Leary is a morally bankrupt individual. I don't care how much money he makes.
How do you factor in the financial sector into your inflationary sources?
O'Leary is wrong about everything, SnotSteve.
@@TT-fq7pl I smell hammer and sickle trolls.
@@SnojetSteve No. You smell. Period. SnotSteve, it's time you took your farmer's annual bath. Whew!
Rates based on a CPLie. A government handpicked basket of goods and services. Food, energy,and housing are underrepresented on purpose.
I'm favoured, $22,000 every week! I can now give back to the locals in my community and also support God's work and the church. God bless America.
Same here, with my current portfolio made from my investments with my personal financial advisor I totally agree with you
Wow! Kind of in shock you mentioned expert ,Elizabeth Regina Nelsen.What a coincidence!!
Elizabeth Regina has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in the UK as she has been really helpful and changed lots of life's
Life is easier when the cash keeps popping
in, thanks to Elizabeth Regina services. Glad she's getting the recognition she deserves
I use to work 3 jobs, full time at Walmart, a server at night and Lyft on the weekend, untill angela danielle crowe change my story.
Bank of Canada should focus on bringing housing prices down not cutting mortgage rates.
they bring house prices down by keeping interest rates up.
People can’t afford the high
Monthly rates so it’s the same crap keep housing affordable but pay high monthly payments or keep rates low and pay high prices for a house people that have a house rates were low for to long in reality people
Are broke Canada is long over do for a housing crash ……. People that are going to renew there mortgages they are in for a sudden people bought homes like crazy during covid …… good luck paying such high monthly mortgage payments…..
the fact the B of C is keeping rates at 5 is rebuilding my trust in the seriousness of the Bank’s commitment to 2% inflation
No rate cuts are coming. Inflation isn't under control and CAD currency is depreciating as is. Cut rates and we double down on that. CAD will crash, we're an import economy, inflation will accelerate.
This guy represents asset heavy clients that get rich even when the rest of us lose. They leverage at low rates and price the rest of us out.
EXACTLY!!!!!!!
We have had it good for almost 50 years. Now we start the downturn for the next 20. This is all planned
Its remarkable how the general population does not understand the importation of inflation as you habe stated.
This guy knows it - just propoganda for the over leveraged.
@@Bleebleeblahblahblah They don't want people to panic and they want people to keep spending so that the GDP doesn't plummet. That's why they keep saying they're going to cut rates when anyone with a half braincell can see that CAD will become the new Argentinian Peso if BoC cut rates at this moment. Especially when the US Fed isn't cutting and they just announced they might even increase the rate even more in the near future. Most people are so dumb they can't see this reality. Also it boggles my mind that these over leveraged people still listen to realtors and mortgage brokers and bankers who lie to them with "rate cut coming soon!" bs.
@@Landstalker1999
What boggles my mind is that the over leveraged think they will cut rates specifically to bail them out.
Insane
The guy running the bank of Canada should be fired , I am sure canadian could draw a name from a hat of Canadians and get someone who can keep us balanced
That isn't his job.
@@TT-fq7pl The government and bank did a dance together and 1 trillion dollars was added to our money supply. Tell me who is responsible between the two?
@@TT-fq7pl When they dance together as if they are married
The one who gave the order of printing the money was your PM. The BoC is desperately trying to contain the inflation that was going to happen as a consequence of that irresponsible action.
The BOC isn’t at fault here. It’s the person you elected into office. The BOC is desperately trying to avoid a catastrophe at hands of Trudeau.
Bank of Canada loves inflation from fraudulent activity that is why it’s so common and widespread. You gotta love a country that allows you to buy your identity
😂😂 rates need to go up! Unless wewant hyperinflation and the canadian dollar to be worthless.
Risks recession??? We are almost 2 years into it. Where have you guys been? Families have already cut way back. We can’t afford bills let alone the 2x grocery prices
what you are experiencing is stagflation, not recession. Recession is like getting hit by a freight truck, and recover within months or a year. Stagflation will bleed you SLOWLY to death for years, even decades. Look at what happened in the 1970s.
Grocery stores are a Monopoly - that needs to stop
@@berry1669 it's a monopoly because of government intervention
@@berry1669 Sorry to break it to you, but inflation is ALL Justin Blackfaces fault (stupid policies, and out of control spending ). Stop blaming the grocery stores.
@@tonyfulford3175 Loblaws - Superstore profit in 3 month $480 Million I call that greed
I still blame the FEDs for this, because in the end they benefit by either buying off the failed banks cheaper or something. The fed can print credit as long as someone will borrow it into existence, but they cannot print product (or production).
People are going through real life crisis, think now isn't a time to point fingers. Everyone should always be prepared for the unexpected to happen. That is how randomness works.
You're right! Now that the market is in decline, I know what I want to do, but I'm not sure which stocks to buy, which investments would yield the best profits, etc. The potential gain is greater due to the risk, and professionals are better at negotiating such exact contracts. Right?
Very true, I started investing in 2018 with no prior knowledge or expertise, and by the end of 2019 I had earned a profit of approximately $750k. I had simply been following the guidance provided to me by my financial adviser. This shows that you don't even need to be a great investor or put in a lot of effort; all you actually need is a professional to help you.
Impressive can you share more info?
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’Colleen Rose Mccaffery” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Spending still out of control
Well, stop using your credit card so much.
Not until we see a significant drop in value of all asset classes will we be in a real recession. Unemployment rate has to be much higher as well. Not until we see both of these changes will inflation be defeated. People are looking for lower rate so they can borrow again and spend again. These analysts have been speculating rate cuts since last year and they have never been right.
Rates have to increase. Talk of dropping them is ludicrous
Market correction is coming!
Justin is worse PM
Reading through the comment section it’s absolutely insane how many people have no idea how money works. No wonder we have a debt crisis 😂
risks? it has been a recession for at least a year 😆
Tiff Macklem needs to go! He has taken the wait and see approach and filled investor pockets and the1%. Waited too long to raise rates and now is dragging his heels into a recession. The richest Canadians will get richer, rents and prices will skyrocket even more.
At least 50% inflation in the last 4 years and wages have not kept pace. Massive capital leaving Canada with the economy south of the border a complete contrast to what's happening in Canada. We're into the 10th year of the Liberal federal government doubling down and destroying the energy business in the west and still no support from the federal government. The attack on capital gains is an attack on small business and will probably be followed by an increase in the GST from 5% to 7% next year. If Ukraine fails we can expect even higher numbers of immigrants and higher housing costs, vehicle costs, food costs and more bad news.
It's all withing the realm of possibilities. If there was cheap money without inflation... you'd have a free lunch!
Recession is needed
Wait for brick currency.
This is what drives me crazy about the Rich. When they talk about the economy,, they mean Wall St. Their economy is not the same as everyone else's economy.
50% of Canadians barely survive month to month, most of the country has been in a recession for years now. These people live in Ivory Towers and have no clue what life is like for the majority of the people in this country nor do they care at all.
IME, inflation is still significantly rising, job loss', food bank line ups getting longer. Interest rates will continue to go up.
Everyone wants rate cuts. No rate cuts coming.
No. Lots of people don't want them.
What are you talking about? I want rate hike and stronger CAD. Only the over leveraged want rate cuts.
@@Landstalker1999 Me too. Most of the vocal people on wanting cuts are the over leveraged... F them.
The Bank of Canada is between a rock and a hard place. Theu cant cut too much more than the U.S. Federal Reserve which would tank our Dollar and import higher inflation. Inflation is more important than people who borrowed too much money
Dollar has already tanked - look at the past decade. Dollar will weaken either way but if we tank the economy we have bigger problems.
@@epictetus3406 If the economy tanks at 5% than we have bigger problems. I have variable rate loans and a mortgage which I have been paying down. I'm not taking on any new debt because I expect rates to stay higher for longer.
The Bank of Canada does not care. They make out like bandits with MASSIVE salaries and raises for everyone. They are a PRIVATE company that makes money off of Governments. They ARE the problem, and are run by the Rothchild group. The sooner we ditch them, the better off our lives will be.
Lol lost to Trudeau's inflation
the canadian dollar lowering would probably be a good thing since we have such a huge amount of new immigrants looking for jobs, it could help to put them in export industries
Well inflation isn't under control
Its is, didn't you watch the video ?
Well no it isn't. Big reason spending out of control
Inflation is higher than their cooked numbers
@@lloydkuepfer1599 Yeah it is, if you remove shelter inflation (directly impacted by interest rates) its actually under 2%. Every country currently is experiencing inflation, are you saying Canada created inflation in other countries ? Stop saying nonsense.
@@MM-xg2tdinflation did not under control go shop a new car, repair shop, supermarket, everything households bills is like more than 10% The cherry picked CPI data is for dump ass who believe it!
I think we should raise the rate to at least 6%, I want a stronger dollar and better house prices
The dollar will get crushed and the sound plan is to hold. Tiff needs to sit on his hands and not move. Dylan must have big mortgages and rental properties... Cheap money is gone, get over it.
This analogy about cdn decreasing if rates are cut isn't true. In the short term, likely. Like most sudden news there's an impact. Long term this isn't true. Wish people stopped spewing this incorrect message
I was thinking the same thing. This guy is on a variable rate.
@@RH-vw5nd Cut rates before the FED and Canadian dollar will drop in value.
Good luck with that. ;)
Choos xplane theft.
The era of cheap almost free money is gone, and won't be back for a long, long time.
Tiff always guesses wrong. He is late again. Canada will again be crushed by a BoC that prefers to act late rather than lead. Tiff needs resign.
we cannot cut before the US does or much of foreign investment will leave the country and the Dollar goes in to the toilet
Foreign investment is leaving because of government policies like increasing the capital gain taxes. That's way more influential than a few percentage points of dollar weakening.
@@epictetus3406 Wrong.
It's way too late to worry about dropping the rate most Canadians are already drowning in debt just basic living in Canada is killing them between the price of housing, groceries transportation and a overloaded public sector has effectively destroyed the country and even 0% interest rates will not help it's going to take year's of suffering to get the country back on track if it's even possible look how many years it took Canada to rebound from the Turds stepdaddy and that was just a drop in the bucket compared to today's mess Canada is doomed for many years now
You should look how much money they’re printing interest rates are going to come down maybe a quarter percent. But my prediction is they’re gonna go right back up
Bank of Canada has already missed the opportunity to cut. The damage is already done. Tiff and his team should step down.
Yep, a lot of economists are saying they have waited too long AGAIN. The effect of interest rates can be felt 18 months....Some economist predict The prime to go as low as 2.50% in 2025 because of this.
lol 😂 What damage? 😂 We have created 90000 jobs in April.. business as usual and housing prices continue going upwards the only damage I can think of is for those house flippers with 5% interest rate they can not flip as many houses as they want 😂
@@stephenr6194 out of 90 000 jobs created 26 000 were public service and 40 000 were part time...The private sector only created 24 000 jobs...Why do you even comment if you do not understand how the economic works ?
@@MM-xg2td the economic?
@@TT-fq7pl economy....🙄