The distress for banks was a farce; what we have experienced in the past 2 years is a result of a system that has worked incredibly well. The Fed just had to tighten credit to cool the economy.
Yeah, that sufficed, but what really helped the economy was rising immigration that helped even out the mismatch between open jobs and people looking for work.
I agree. Rising productivity is manna for central banks, allowing faster growth without inflation because each hour of work yields more goods and services at the same cost.
I’m indifferent. All I really do care about is what assets and securities will drive the Santa Rally? It is upon us, folks. I have a $100k portfolio, and I have a friend who has grown theirs to over 30% with the recent rallies. He is up 4% this month alone!
I might sell to the tune, but not without the approval of my broker as usual since 2022. With eyes and ears on Wall Street, I have raked in 140% on a managed portfolio currently worth $315k run under a hedge fund by Desiree Ruth Hoffman.
2.7% says a corrupt government process of determination on inflation. Try finding what goods and services have been included and or excluded in the factoring basket of goods. It's a shell game at Stats Canada
@@faisal-ca…..With negative interest rates in Europe and insolvency in many pension funds, there’s a reason they locked down businesses and pumped money into the economy…..now we’ve got inflation…..imagine that 🤔.
@@yr1520exactly buthead barely said anything. A cut before end of year is barely a prediction so who cares. If they do cut once or don't it won't really influence the market. It's a prediction a loser would make
Many years ago, on the Bank of Canada website, they admitted that they take out and add-in different goods and services to calculate the inflation rate, based upon how far off the real inflation rate is compared to the target inflation rate. In other words, they play with the calculation to manipulate and misrepresent the actual inflation rate.
Take out shelter and the inflation rate for April is at 1.2 percent. With the certain increase in shelter cost, the economy damn near needs to be deflationary for BoC to meet their lower end of the target. The game they are playing is straight insulting.
I find your assessment of subjects related to real estate are thoughtful , measured and accurate. It’s so refreshing to hear information that is not sensationalized and put forward to get a reaction. Click bait ) . I really appreciate and enjoy your content , thank you and keep up the good work .
except stability to the country and financial system would kill the need for CBDCs, which is the #1 most important item on BoC agenda and Trudeau's marching orders from up above.
What a lot of us forget is that these factors/movements are financial oppertunities/strategies to some... But for others it's emotionally destabilizing, demoralizing, and rage inducing. It's causing desperation, and history has shown us time and time again what happens when the back bone of a country loses all patience and hope. The consequences last generations. I pray things are corrected before we have to face those consequences.
Still is big deception from Realtor John about the trend. All world stock markets all time record high TSX,Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, Gold price , copper price and aluminum doubled, All US and Canadian RE markets record highs except BC and Ontario. Did you see bitcoin $70 k US. Currently the 4 bed detached house in Oakville -Ontario is down about $500 K from March 2022. Yes they ruined the Spring 2022, Spring 2023, Spring 2024 BUT next Spring 2025 Crash???? Really before the Soccer World Cup in 2026 in GTA? Right Now is the Bottom in RE in Ontario until July 2024. With GDP currently 0.4 percent is good and cuts until 2 negative GDP numbers for recession? What is that knowledge of economics? Interest rates are usually about the current inflation which is 2.7 percent. Affordability is easy fix if they put 40 years amortization as UK and Australia.
Thank you for being straight up in how you see things. You don't have to be and will unlikely be right about all the projections but the facts/stats are helpful and your realistic tone is what our country needs, and many need to hear sharply through their wishful thinking.
Someone at RBC is spinning against you today. A lot of us are having a hard time right now and just trying to stay in the game. It will get harder but this is not my first recession rodeo. When this is behind us you will be doing a lot of business sir. Makes me consider moving to Niagara.
I’m in Central Southern Ontario. I listen to 680 News and CFRB 1010 Toronto, Ontario. According to the radio on Thursday, May 30th, 2024. 680 News was saying the Bank of Canada was going to Cut Interest Rates. O my god, Inflation is still going on. This will prolong inflation. We need to get those rates up to 10 to 14% kill off inflation. It was Harper after 2009 that kept rates low which was a big mistake, causing hyper house prices. The rates should have be going up 1.0 to 1.5 percent a year so by 2020 They would have been back at pre 2008 levels 10 to 12 percent. The Government created this mess by holding rates at 1.88% for 10 years. Now we are in a period of hyper inflation with everything from house to food to cars.
Looks like the Canadian 5 year treasury bond has already gained back 90 percent of where it was at before the CPI and inflation report yesterday. What a difference a day makes. So much for any rate cut.
We have been saying it for last one year. No rate cut unless housing crashes over 20% in a year. And those cuts would be temporary even so they will bounce back again in few months. BOC should not lower rates unless frauds are blocked. We need a system for not allowing mortgage frauds happening so easily.
So basically the only way to bring down the cost of shelter is to remove homes from investors and put them on the market....wonder if canada has any more tricks ie capital gains....etc up their sleeves
In this current economy (high rates, high home prices) if you have excess cash, would you pay down a mortgage balance or acquire an investment property?
The analysis of this issue is too polarized on both sides. There are valid arguments for both hold and cut. Something that continues to be missed in most analyses is that the most recent inflation reading reflects the effect of interest rates 18 - 24 months ago. This is largely because many sectors make pricing and workforce decisions well in advance and for a fiscal year at a time. So 2.7% headline CPI reflects an overnight lending rate of 3.75% in Oct 2032, only mildly restrictive. It is entirely unknown how quickly inflation will fall from this point on, but the rate of change will increase quickly until mid-to-late 2024. One perspective that is worth considering is that 1 - 3 % inflation does not truly constitute price stability from a technical perspective. In a productive, competitive, balanced economy, the cost of many goods and services in real terms should not be increasing, actually. A productive, competitive, balanced economy should be delivering 0% price growth or price declines in real terms due to innovation improvements in efficiency. The idea that 1 - 3 % inflation constitues price stability misrepresents inflation as lower than it really is when the quality of goods produced is taken into account. Just because something costs more does not mean that the productive output of an economy has increased. So GDP is not necessarily a reliable indicator of the performance of an economy. The output gap (% of unused current and potential capacity of businesses) is a much more reliable indicator and is below the historical average. Unused output capacity is a sign of weakness. Some weakness for a short period of time is alright but should not be allowed to linger. Due to supply-demand imbalances, I do not see that freehold detached house peices can fall in the next 3 years. Unlike most industries, residential real estate development is asset light and can easily scale down its output to respond to lower demand. That is exactly what builders and investors have done: stop building single detached. The increase in listings this spring does not indicate any easing in supply-demand conditions but rather a market lull that will eventually be broken. And a balanced market of 53% SNLR does not spell disaster for house prices. Keep in mind that if restrictive policy can only keep the SNLR at 53%, then neutral policy will result in a seller's market. Ex-shelter inflation was 1.2%. there is a limit how long they can wait before they have to cut. The BoC has admitted they will not be able to bring shelter inflation down with a restrictive policy rate. Our economy has been weak for a very long time. It is not healthy or desirable to bolster GDP with outsized, sometimes non-prodictive, spending on housing. If the economy as a whole were productive, competitive, and balanced, shelter inflation, goods inflation, snd services inflation would be in much closer alignment, which would drastically reduce price swings and the frequency and intensity of easing snd tightening cycles. Bottom line: improve the underlying health of the economy and re-calibrate lending rates to a new neutral to allow for productivity improvements.
Bang on, with your worry about the BOC jumping the gun on rate cuts... I do hope (as you) that they can let things slow to a point where any action they take eg: lowering rates, is the reinforcement (as it is meant to be) of a rapidly slowing economy and the attempt at slowing the decline, rather than, concerns of perception or Media.
Outstanding analyse Jon! And I believe the same that rate won’t even though I’m on a variable rate. There is so much more in play de-globalisations of the marchandise market. 🎉 I believe the BoC will act independently and adjust rates as they see fit. The current narrative is really impacting young families trying to enter the market, reminiscent of when I entered the market in 2006 and had to relocate for work in 2008. This trend will undoubtedly benefit the banks' revenue and performance for the coming decades. Please take a look at Jeff Rubin's latest book, "A Map of the New Normal." I've watched all his interviews, and he believes the BoC will maintain higher rates for longer due to de-globalization.
I tend to agree with your analysis of the figures . Collectively, we are seeking changes that seem to be beneficial to us NOW. I. too, believe that responsible money management will require a bit more pain. Responsible is the key word.
There are other factors like government spending and what the FED is doing south of the border, the BOC has to consider these factors that they have no control over.
Increase the Central Bank's 'deadband' zone. Instead of reacting to it from 1-3%, extend that further out to 0-6%? Something like that. Make the 'deadband' larger
It is not just about Canada, that BoC is reluctant to cut the rates, it is about growing global geopolitical tensions and brewing conflicts all over the world that could impact the global supply chains, global energy supplies, and global security. Bank of Canada is preparing the country and the public for the worst-case scenario, a "War Economy". All NATO and Western nations' Central Banks prepare the countries and their economies for possible ongoing conflicts. Defense/security spending will be going up and so the government's deficits and taxes. BoC is in direct contact with government officials, the Ministry of Defence, and Canadian Security officials and they get their daily briefing about ever-evolving geopolitical situations. The BoC governor is also in direct contact with NATO nations' central banks to coordinate their monetary policies in case of full-scale conflict. The possibility of the rate cut is increasingly diminishing due to the developing geopolitical situations on the ground in Eastern Europe and West Asia. There won't be any possibility of rate cuts, after the 2024 US Presidential Election in November, things might take a different turn, the global Inflation may skyrocket as it did in 1972 and 1976 during the Vietnam era which led to 1980s high inflation and drastic rise of interest rates. Bank of Canada will be looking for Paul Volker 2.0 to come in and clean up the inflation mess once again. The current BoC governor has been unable to control his own created inflation, he has no clue. Again, NO RATE CUTS for 2024, 2025, and 2026, even if there are one or two, it will be short-lived and the rates will be jacked up again to a much higher level than the current one.
High interest payment is what drives up the shelter cost, and discourages the household consumption lol, NOT the $800k~$2M housing price if you look at how the CPI was calculated
And yes, the high housing price will hit the mortgage payment, but again, it is homeowners who actually keep paying the high interest contributes to the higher shelter cost in the CPI basket. It is the massive supply that will eventually kill the real estate price especially for condos. We will be seeing the condo prices going down as the interest rate goes down at the same time
I’ve even heard chat about when the rates do start coming down, it could get to a 200 basis point cut relatively soon. Is that silly talk or does a significant rate cut seem more likely than a modest 25-50 basis point reduction?
Reducing interest rates is akin to adding fuel to the persistent fire of inflation. I often liken inflation to our blood pressure. The inflation, or blood pressure (BP), skyrocketed due to an unprecedented amount of money being printed (Quantitative Easing or QE). Then, the medication (higher interest rates and Quantitative Tightening or QT) managed to lower the BP (inflation to 2.7). We understand that our BP should ideally be 120/80, which equates to a 2 percent inflation rate. Now, picture this: the doctors (or so-called experts) are suggesting that it’s okay to start eating red meat again. We all know the consequence - the BP will inevitably rise (inflation will swiftly increase from 2.7 percent to 3 percent and higher..). The BOC is aware that it needs to maintain higher interest rates to stabilize the market, and then it needs to persistently keep the rates high (four hundred basis points) to ensure the economy’s well-being. BOC's message is very clear, its the delusional low rate addicts who want more booze..
Garth has been consistently wrong. I stopped reading his blog as his writing is too inflammatory and don't really trust people when they write that way. I just find I get irritated after reading his stuff. You can tell he worked in the media.
@@sw8281 What gets me is he will say something that turns out wrong then he gaslights and says he never said it or that's not what he meant or that was the "consensus at that time" so he dodges responsibility for presenting false information. He also seems to have turned more left-wing over the last few years.
If BOC cuts the interest rate, inflation may come back up and Canada will need to go back to square one. They did not do a good job in the past and this is what we are facing today, there is basically no free lunch.
A few sources in Canada/US seem to agree ~70% odds for incr (0.25 bps) Jun/Jul and two by or in Q1/25 (slightly) before US. Sml select few know. We’ll see. PTB good at keeping all guessing Lol. Inflation sticky. Edit: see LT plan.
We will see what the market says about rates going forward. The government needs to sell a lot of debt. The rates for that debt are set in an auction process as the lenders bid the rate based on the risk(s) they perceive. The BoC can play within a small parameter but if they set rates outside lenders appetites, they risk becoming totally irrelevant.
We will see what happens in the next month. I am very interested what the new capital gains taxes will do in the lead up to June 25, 2024. Since there has been an outsized increase in investor owned properties in the last decade it's possible for these investors to save capital gains and cash in near the top if they off load before June 25. I wonder if this new policy will have a big impact on housing stock will wait to get full June figures to really know.
I have a hard time believing BoC cares about the asset prices after what they did & said during the pandemic. What they have to watch closely to at least pretend they are doing their job right this time that they are in focus is the unemployment rate, CPI, federal reserve, and how loud the screams of housing unaffordability are. They can't justify cutting yet but they probably will have a reason by the end of summer, at least a 0.25 cut and wait.
Prices in eastern Canada are still high, is it possible to fall? I live in Prince Edward and I want to buy a house would you advise me to wait a little bit beyond Julay
Montreal, Quebec City, Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg are full of affordable homes. Only Vancouver and Toronto are expensive because they are more desirable.
@@That90sShow this is 2024 not 2004. People where already paying that much 20 years ago in Vancouver. You can buy a brand new 3 bedroom 3 bathroom townhouse for under 500k in Winnipeg which is very affordable
@@Nemija East Indians and Chinese immigrants were buying $500,000 homes in Vancouver with normal salaries even 20 years ago. They found ways to make it more so educated people can certainly make it work. My parents came to Canada with absolutely nothing and were able to buy real estate with normal jobs. That was 20 years ago when homes were $500,000 each.
@@Nemija The average Canadian salary in October 2023 as deduced from Labour Force Survey (LFS) was approximately $64,850 per year. According to the 2021 Canadian Income Survey (CIS), the average income in 2021 was $53,100, and the median income was $40,500. Among large Canadian cities, Calgary had the highest average income of $60,000, and Montreal had the highest median income of $41,600. Among populous Canadian provinces, Alberta offered the highest average and median income of $57,600 and $41,300. Toronto and Calgary can be ranked as having the highest and second-highest income inequality, while Quebec and Atlantic Canada are regions with the highest income equality.
When you understand the goal is to get everyone out of home/land ownership, you will understand that rates are not going down after the biggest acquisition of debt in our lifetimes. They jack you up on the drug, then pull the punchbowl away (rates going higher). Most people will lose their homes.
I want interest rates INCREASES. Prices need to come down and by A LOT. The housing increases in the maritimes have just been completely bonkers considering our wages are way lower.
If history is to repeat itself, when inflation rises, interest rates go up, and deficits balloon. So all else being equal, higher inflation means higher interest rates - meaning ever deeper deficits. This is vicious feedback loop with interest rates, inflation, and deficits. More inflation, more deficits. More deficits, higher inflation thus higher hard asset prices. Most homes in Canada have very little leverage. Even if interest rates go to 20%, it won't bother most home owners at least not enough to create a fire sale to drop prices materially across the board. We've lived through this in the seventies / eighties. Of course, should that happen today, it would trigger an inflationary depression which the world has never seen.
Not so long ago....The experts were saying that negative interest rates were possible. Wellllll!!!!! As a non expert,I am telling you that a prime rate of 15% is very possible.
Another "Like" for Jon Flynn. The spring real estate market was a bust. My target on the national average residential price is $575,000 which is considerably less than where we are The Canadian real estate pumpers on RUclips will have you believe that all is well and now is the best time to buy because as soon as the BoC reduces rates by 25 basis points, people will be lined up to buy homes. LOL CREA will keep pumping the "hype" and many folks ae pinning their hopes and dreams on rate cuts. I'll say again that I don't expect any rate cuts in 2024.
Misleading information. Excluding shelter costs, inflation is at 1.2% for the month of April. Within shelter, mortage interest cost alone is up 24.5% and won’t drop meaningfully until the market flushes out most of the cheap mortgages taken pre 2022. With the current inflation measures, maintaining the policy rate is greatly inflationary on its own.
Real gdp is up but gdp per capita is down for the past 6 quarters. Also, why are you ignoring the massive head and shoulders pattern forming on the 2 year bond and 5 year bond yield charts?
The only thing that doesn’t make sense is how unemployment is so low when there are so many people being jobless and looking for any jobs to survive, how valid are these unemployment data and the new 90,000 jobs thats being created and boasted around.
I agree with you on interest rates, they will not go down the way some people think! Being a Landlord and having a high interest rates and one or two bad tenants, it is a combination of disaster for a owner. Who is a landlord of private own properties? is Government and they made rules sided with tenants. Tell us what kind of capitalist country is this, when they do not allow free rental market? If someone does not pay you , takes for every to get hearing and then they favour to a tenant, with payment program and you wait again another time again and again. But bank is running system like capitalism should. This is why is shortage of apartments and why is so expensive to rent. I'm a landlord for 40 years and it is the most shit bossiness you can be in!
If the BoC's top priority is to maintain the value of money (assuming they are actually referring to the Canadian dollar) then they should not cut rates. The $CAD is hovering around a very pathetic 73¢. While some say a low $CAD is good for exports, it's actually not because exporters use the low dollar as a crutch to disincentive efficiency, productivity and innovation. Meanwhile, anything we import, which is just about everything, costs more. Also, no matter what the BoC does, they also have to contend with a completely insane and irresponsible federal government that likes to spend money like drunken sailors. It's called fiscal dominance and it means that monetary policy is overpowered by government spending.
You have no idea at the rate people are being laid off. Trudeau government is trying to keep up by adding government jobs. I fear that if BOC miss the right time to start cutting then they might have to cut fast which will be dangerous for economy. So I feel that BOC should cut only 25 basis point in August and see the effect before next cut. I also believe that June is too early. Anyways most of the people are already broke which can be seen by a little visit to food bank.
Inflation will never go back to 2%. There is so much debt in the system, combined with structural deficits, that the bond market will demand higher and higher interest rates in order to fund the debt. Buy gold and bitcoin!
*As I see it, from all the talking heads I’ve watched* The fundamental assumption of technical analysis is that there are historical patterns that allow us to make predictions about future…stock price movements for instance. But stocks (and houses) aren’t traded in a vacuum. Humans trade them. So while human behaviour has an element of predictability because pattern seeking has enabled us to survive, there is nothing that says the external conditions (society, the economy, the weather!) in which humans trade stocks or buy houses, will remain the same, yet this is a requirement of technical analysis - that external factors remain the same (or close). You can give me all the technical analysis you want telling me house prices are going down, but then we get an external shock and interest rates drop and they go up instead. So your chart might make sense but the real world rarely conforms. Technical analysts will say “but that rate drop fit within our theory” but the reality is that there is a lot of backward looking justification for successes and failures and any theory that can explain anything and everything is more akin to astrology than science. I would submit that TA is not worth much because external factors can be pulled in to explain its failures so most of it isn’t internally consistent or coherent to begin with.
Jon has been using his supposed technical analysis, which he has no qualifications to make, for years now saying a crash is just around the corner. He is always saying you just have to wait 12-18 months longer. Then in 12-18 months he will say the same thing again.
They talk about low unenployment but these guys dont mentioned the part time jobs / government jobs thats being filled ... There is a reason why you see big lines for jobs and every other person you talk to is unemployed
does technical analysis ever work for housing? it really only works in the stock market because traders use it. chicken or the egg situation. housing is completely different and i don't believe it has ANY relevance at all for predicting the future prices. prove me wrong.
Technical analysis requires a leap of faith with one closed eye. It’s not about stocks vs houses, people move in herds in either case when someone gives them a reason (a good chart). It’s about the fact that history is a one way street- it doesn’t repeat, although it does rhyme. Given the existence of Black Swan events etc etc the idea that TA has predictive power is laughable. But yes, if you tell enough people to buy or sell many will follow the herd….until they don’t. So…TA works, until it doesn’t. But because it doesn’t contain within herself an explanation (until after the fact, which is easy) *why* its predictive power ends, it is nothing better than astrology.
@@davidhughes6048 i cant imagine more than 1% of this market referencing technical analysis when buying or selling. the only reason it can SOMETIMES work with stocks is the transactions take a second vs weeks... and day traders use it to decide entries or existing. thats not how it works with housing. seems like hogwash and theres no data supporting it as a reliable metric.
What everyone should comprehend is that no matter how unaffordable home prices are, the system cannot tolerate the austerity and deflation required to bring back prices to affordability. To do so is political suicide. The only way to implement austerity is to manufacture an enemy and blame the belt tightening on him.
That's why they're orcastraiting a slow bleed by only setting rates at 5%. I bought my house for $128k in 1996. The fellow I bought it from bought it for $116k in 1981. They are creating stagnation over a long long period untill wages catch up.
Because many stupid "economist" and realtors have been saying for more than one year rate will go down, the rate should jump to 5.5 or 6 to give the proper message to all the people who live with debts instead of work.
Why do you change your so called technical analysis every time it doesn't fit your narrative? Last year it was all about the head and shoulders model. That ended up wrong so now you just don't talk about it anymore?
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The distress for banks was a farce; what we have experienced in the past 2 years is a result of a system that has worked incredibly well. The Fed just had to tighten credit to cool the economy.
What about the Fed lending program for banks that was said to ease financial tensions after the domino effect from Signature and Silicon Valley bank?
Yeah, that sufficed, but what really helped the economy was rising immigration that helped even out the mismatch between open jobs and people looking for work.
I agree. Rising productivity is manna for central banks, allowing faster growth without inflation because each hour of work yields more goods and services at the same cost.
I’m indifferent. All I really do care about is what assets and securities will drive the Santa Rally? It is upon us, folks. I have a $100k portfolio, and I have a friend who has grown theirs to over 30% with the recent rallies. He is up 4% this month alone!
I might sell to the tune, but not without the approval of my broker as usual since 2022. With eyes and ears on Wall Street, I have raked in 140% on a managed portfolio currently worth $315k run under a hedge fund by Desiree Ruth Hoffman.
2.7% says a corrupt government process of determination on inflation. Try finding what goods and services have been included and or excluded in the factoring basket of goods. It's a shell game at Stats Canada
Agreed. A lot of cherry picking. Also inflation refers to the inflation during current quarter. Doesn't factor in the prices that went up post-covid.
When I heard 2.7% I almost choked on my $18 bacon
It’s man made fake numbers, I don’t see any damn cent is decreased on any of the house hold items
Cars, houses, food all up, not sure where 2.7 comes from
@@faisal-ca…..With negative interest rates in Europe and insolvency in many pension funds, there’s a reason they locked down businesses and pumped money into the economy…..now we’ve got inflation…..imagine that 🤔.
You need to have a $10,000 bet with Ron Butler.
This!
A bet or a bat?
Ron's bet is that they'll get cut before end of the year.
Yup, that's what he said but not sure the exact timing
@@yr1520exactly buthead barely said anything. A cut before end of year is barely a prediction so who cares. If they do cut once or don't it won't really influence the market. It's a prediction a loser would make
Ron Butler is running a 10k bet on interest rate cuts happening this year
5 more rate decisions this year, you'd have to be stupid to take this 1-sided bet and Ron the CON knows this
Let him. How much of a cut? .25? Anybody can “predict” that in 7 months.
I think they will in the fourth quarter possibly.
I think Tiff is itching to cut and feels the pressure to do so. But I think he will just cut 0.25 in June or July and not again till next year
Jon doesn't have the 10k to bet with in the first place.
The US fed runs the show. Whatever they do, the rest of the countries will do
Thank you. I also find it “cute” how people think bank of Canada can make independent decisions.
BoC raised rates before the fed did, and paused before the fed did. They will cut before the fed does. Bet@elinicfurniture6860
Many years ago, on the Bank of Canada website, they admitted that they take out and add-in different goods and services to calculate the inflation rate, based upon how far off the real inflation rate is compared to the target inflation rate. In other words, they play with the calculation to manipulate and misrepresent the actual inflation rate.
look at the shadow stats website for what inflation should historically be. It is way higher than 2.7%
The 1980s inflation formula gives an inflation rate double of what they report today
Take out shelter and the inflation rate for April is at 1.2 percent. With the certain increase in shelter cost, the economy damn near needs to be deflationary for BoC to meet their lower end of the target. The game they are playing is straight insulting.
Agreed, perhaps NO cuts in 2024.
I would be shocked if no cuts came in 2024; however, I would say that they will come later than sooner.
So, how are those predictions going gentlemen? Have we learned anything about the danger of predictions?
If BOC cuts rates will do more harm than good.house price will go up and up . Leave the rates up it's the only way for house prices to come down .
I agree.
I find your assessment of subjects related to real estate are thoughtful , measured and accurate. It’s so refreshing to hear information that is not sensationalized and put forward to get a reaction. Click bait ) . I really appreciate and enjoy your content , thank you and keep up the good work .
The BOC wants rates at 5% ,and they want it to stay there , this will bring stability to the country and financial system !
except stability to the country and financial system would kill the need for CBDCs, which is the #1 most important item on BoC agenda and Trudeau's marching orders from up above.
Not true, Canada is piling the debt. What helps eating away debt is inflation running a little hotter.
It will stay at 5% until 2025 we ll get to 4.5% in 2027
@@aalampara7853show your work on rates being 4.5% in 2027, would love to see how you came to that conclusion
What a lot of us forget is that these factors/movements are financial oppertunities/strategies to some...
But for others it's emotionally destabilizing, demoralizing, and rage inducing. It's causing desperation, and history has shown us time and time again what happens when the back bone of a country loses all patience and hope. The consequences last generations. I pray things are corrected before we have to face those consequences.
It’s almost as if it’s being done deliberately hmmm
Thanks Jon, I do appreciate your videos!!! Keep doing them!
Still is big deception from Realtor John about the trend.
All world stock markets all time record high TSX,Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, Gold price , copper price and aluminum doubled, All US and Canadian RE markets record highs except BC and Ontario.
Did you see bitcoin $70 k US.
Currently the 4 bed detached house in Oakville -Ontario is down about $500 K from March 2022.
Yes they ruined the Spring 2022, Spring 2023, Spring 2024 BUT next Spring 2025 Crash???? Really before the Soccer World Cup in 2026 in GTA?
Right Now is the Bottom in RE in Ontario until July 2024.
With GDP currently 0.4 percent is good and cuts until 2 negative GDP numbers for recession? What is that knowledge of economics?
Interest rates are usually about the current inflation which is 2.7 percent.
Affordability is easy fix if they put 40 years amortization as UK and Australia.
Thank you for being straight up in how you see things. You don't have to be and will unlikely be right about all the projections but the facts/stats are helpful and your realistic tone is what our country needs, and many need to hear sharply through their wishful thinking.
Everyone is expecting a rate cut so im on the other side of the boat they will hold for now
How’s that leaky boat doing?😂
Someone at RBC is spinning against you today. A lot of us are having a hard time right now and just trying to stay in the game. It will get harder but this is not my first recession rodeo. When this is behind us you will be doing a lot of business sir. Makes me consider moving to Niagara.
I’m in Central Southern Ontario.
I listen to 680 News and CFRB 1010 Toronto, Ontario.
According to the radio on Thursday, May 30th, 2024.
680 News was saying the Bank of Canada was going to Cut Interest Rates.
O my god, Inflation is still going on. This will prolong inflation. We need to get those rates up to 10 to 14% kill off inflation.
It was Harper after 2009 that kept rates low which was a big mistake, causing hyper house prices.
The rates should have be going up 1.0 to 1.5 percent a year so by 2020
They would have been back at pre 2008 levels 10 to 12 percent.
The Government created this mess by holding rates at 1.88% for 10 years.
Now we are in a period of hyper inflation with everything from house to food to cars.
Wrong.
Looks like the Canadian 5 year treasury bond has already gained back 90 percent of where it was at before the CPI and inflation report yesterday. What a difference a day makes. So much for any rate cut.
We have been saying it for last one year. No rate cut unless housing crashes over 20% in a year. And those cuts would be temporary even so they will bounce back again in few months. BOC should not lower rates unless frauds are blocked. We need a system for not allowing mortgage frauds happening so easily.
So basically the only way to bring down the cost of shelter is to remove homes from investors and put them on the market....wonder if canada has any more tricks ie capital gains....etc up their sleeves
BINGO,you want to be an "investor" try the STOCK MARKET..NOT RES.HOUSING..
@@mikebowers7719 Without "investors", the housing stock would be half of what we have today.
Jon, what do you advise to homeowners who have the ability to purchase a home now? Wait for assets to soften, or proceed if it's affordable to them?
In this current economy (high rates, high home prices) if you have excess cash, would you pay down a mortgage balance or acquire an investment property?
The analysis of this issue is too polarized on both sides. There are valid arguments for both hold and cut. Something that continues to be missed in most analyses is that the most recent inflation reading reflects the effect of interest rates 18 - 24 months ago. This is largely because many sectors make pricing and workforce decisions well in advance and for a fiscal year at a time. So 2.7% headline CPI reflects an overnight lending rate of 3.75% in Oct 2032, only mildly restrictive. It is entirely unknown how quickly inflation will fall from this point on, but the rate of change will increase quickly until mid-to-late 2024. One perspective that is worth considering is that 1 - 3 % inflation does not truly constitute price stability from a technical perspective. In a productive, competitive, balanced economy, the cost of many goods and services in real terms should not be increasing, actually. A productive, competitive, balanced economy should be delivering 0% price growth or price declines in real terms due to innovation improvements in efficiency. The idea that 1 - 3 % inflation constitues price stability misrepresents inflation as lower than it really is when the quality of goods produced is taken into account. Just because something costs more does not mean that the productive output of an economy has increased. So GDP is not necessarily a reliable indicator of the performance of an economy. The output gap (% of unused current and potential capacity of businesses) is a much more reliable indicator and is below the historical average. Unused output capacity is a sign of weakness. Some weakness for a short period of time is alright but should not be allowed to linger. Due to supply-demand imbalances, I do not see that freehold detached house peices can fall in the next 3 years. Unlike most industries, residential real estate development is asset light and can easily scale down its output to respond to lower demand. That is exactly what builders and investors have done: stop building single detached. The increase in listings this spring does not indicate any easing in supply-demand conditions but rather a market lull that will eventually be broken. And a balanced market of 53% SNLR does not spell disaster for house prices. Keep in mind that if restrictive policy can only keep the SNLR at 53%, then neutral policy will result in a seller's market. Ex-shelter inflation was 1.2%. there is a limit how long they can wait before they have to cut. The BoC has admitted they will not be able to bring shelter inflation down with a restrictive policy rate. Our economy has been weak for a very long time. It is not healthy or desirable to bolster GDP with outsized, sometimes non-prodictive, spending on housing. If the economy as a whole were productive, competitive, and balanced, shelter inflation, goods inflation, snd services inflation would be in much closer alignment, which would drastically reduce price swings and the frequency and intensity of easing snd tightening cycles. Bottom line: improve the underlying health of the economy and re-calibrate lending rates to a new neutral to allow for productivity improvements.
I like your assessment, I believe there is a political angel to the decision.
Love your videos! So much information well summarized.
Bang on, with your worry about the BOC jumping the gun on rate cuts... I do hope (as you) that they can let things slow to a point where any action they take eg: lowering rates, is the reinforcement (as it is meant to be) of a rapidly slowing economy and the attempt at slowing the decline, rather than, concerns of perception or Media.
Outstanding analyse Jon! And I believe the same that rate won’t even though I’m on a variable rate. There is so much more in play de-globalisations of the marchandise market. 🎉 I believe the BoC will act independently and adjust rates as they see fit. The current narrative is really impacting young families trying to enter the market, reminiscent of when I entered the market in 2006 and had to relocate for work in 2008. This trend will undoubtedly benefit the banks' revenue and performance for the coming decades.
Please take a look at Jeff Rubin's latest book, "A Map of the New Normal." I've watched all his interviews, and he believes the BoC will maintain higher rates for longer due to de-globalization.
Yes, you are right. I am pretty sure, no rate cuts for now. How it come down inflation, when the prices go up.😮
I tend to agree with your analysis of the figures . Collectively, we are seeking changes that seem to be beneficial to us NOW. I. too, believe that responsible money management will require a bit more pain. Responsible is the key word.
There are other factors like government spending and what the FED is doing south of the border, the BOC has to consider these factors that they have no control over.
Increase the Central Bank's 'deadband' zone. Instead of reacting to it from 1-3%, extend that further out to 0-6%? Something like that. Make the 'deadband' larger
I hope there's no cuts. But I don't think the BOC has the courage to hold. There's too much political and public pressure.
It is not just about Canada, that BoC is reluctant to cut the rates, it is about growing global geopolitical tensions and brewing conflicts all over the world that could impact the global supply chains, global energy supplies, and global security.
Bank of Canada is preparing the country and the public for the worst-case scenario, a "War Economy".
All NATO and Western nations' Central Banks prepare the countries and their economies for possible ongoing conflicts.
Defense/security spending will be going up and so the government's deficits and taxes.
BoC is in direct contact with government officials, the Ministry of Defence, and Canadian Security officials and they get their daily briefing about ever-evolving geopolitical situations.
The BoC governor is also in direct contact with NATO nations' central banks to coordinate their monetary policies in case of full-scale conflict.
The possibility of the rate cut is increasingly diminishing due to the developing geopolitical situations on the ground in Eastern Europe and West Asia.
There won't be any possibility of rate cuts, after the 2024 US Presidential Election in November, things might take a different turn, the global Inflation may skyrocket as it did in 1972 and 1976 during the Vietnam era which led to 1980s high inflation and drastic rise of interest rates.
Bank of Canada will be looking for Paul Volker 2.0 to come in and clean up the inflation mess once again.
The current BoC governor has been unable to control his own created inflation, he has no clue.
Again, NO RATE CUTS for 2024, 2025, and 2026, even if there are one or two, it will be short-lived and the rates will be jacked up again to a much higher level than the current one.
High interest payment is what drives up the shelter cost, and discourages the household consumption lol, NOT the $800k~$2M housing price if you look at how the CPI was calculated
And yes, the high housing price will hit the mortgage payment, but again, it is homeowners who actually keep paying the high interest contributes to the higher shelter cost in the CPI basket. It is the massive supply that will eventually kill the real estate price especially for condos. We will be seeing the condo prices going down as the interest rate goes down at the same time
I’ve even heard chat about when the rates do start coming down, it could get to a 200 basis point cut relatively soon.
Is that silly talk or does a significant rate cut seem more likely than a modest 25-50 basis point reduction?
Reducing interest rates is akin to adding fuel to the persistent fire of inflation. I often liken inflation to our blood pressure. The inflation, or blood pressure (BP), skyrocketed due to an unprecedented amount of money being printed (Quantitative Easing or QE). Then, the medication (higher interest rates and Quantitative Tightening or QT) managed to lower the BP (inflation to 2.7). We understand that our BP should ideally be 120/80, which equates to a 2 percent inflation rate. Now, picture this: the doctors (or so-called experts) are suggesting that it’s okay to start eating red meat again. We all know the consequence - the BP will inevitably rise (inflation will swiftly increase from 2.7 percent to 3 percent and higher..). The BOC is aware that it needs to maintain higher interest rates to stabilize the market, and then it needs to persistently keep the rates high (four hundred basis points) to ensure the economy’s well-being. BOC's message is very clear, its the delusional low rate addicts who want more booze..
Garth Turner blog today is saying 1/4 percent rate cut in June. I think he's wrong on that (like he is on everything else).
Garth has been consistently wrong. I stopped reading his blog as his writing is too inflammatory and don't really trust people when they write that way. I just find I get irritated after reading his stuff. You can tell he worked in the media.
@@sw8281 What gets me is he will say something that turns out wrong then he gaslights and says he never said it or that's not what he meant or that was the "consensus at that time" so he dodges responsibility for presenting false information. He also seems to have turned more left-wing over the last few years.
Garth Turner had Nortel as a steal at $70 per share in 2001. Hasn't been right since. Ignore that guy.
And yet, the irony here is….
@@davidhughes6048 the irony is he was calling for a rate cut 6 months earlier.
Excellent, Jon - thanks.
Appreciate your insight and honesty great info John.
I’m in southwestern Ontario and we are selling our home, do you think prices will go down much?
Yes, about 10,000 dollars
Looks like they would do anything to protect their precious homeowners and investors, while continuing to prop up the housing market
Unfortunately and reluctantly, I have to agree with your analysis. 👍🏽😩
Love your crystal ball and fortune telling skill. Thanks!
Keep the rates high as that will increase supply to accommodate the buyers waiting on the sidelines.
If BOC cuts the interest rate, inflation may come back up and Canada will need to go back to square one. They did not do a good job in the past and this is what we are facing today, there is basically no free lunch.
A few sources in Canada/US seem to agree ~70% odds for incr (0.25 bps) Jun/Jul and two by or in Q1/25 (slightly) before US. Sml select few know. We’ll see. PTB good at keeping all guessing Lol. Inflation sticky. Edit: see LT plan.
We will see what the market says about rates going forward. The government needs to sell a lot of debt. The rates for that debt are set in an auction process as the lenders bid the rate based on the risk(s) they perceive. The BoC can play within a small parameter but if they set rates outside lenders appetites, they risk becoming totally irrelevant.
In a Fiat currency regime, the BoC can buy the whole Canadian treasury curve if they want to keep yields low and turn our dollar into confetti.
So this didn’t age well.
Exactly. As Yogi Berra said “it’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future”.
We will see what happens in the next month. I am very interested what the new capital gains taxes will do in the lead up to June 25, 2024. Since there has been an outsized increase in investor owned properties in the last decade it's possible for these investors to save capital gains and cash in near the top if they off load before June 25. I wonder if this new policy will have a big impact on housing stock will wait to get full June figures to really know.
BoC will cut AFTER the new capital gains tax goes online, not before. July provides a dead RE market to cut rates in, so that'll be my guess.
I have a hard time believing BoC cares about the asset prices after what they did & said during the pandemic. What they have to watch closely to at least pretend they are doing their job right this time that they are in focus is the unemployment rate, CPI, federal reserve, and how loud the screams of housing unaffordability are. They can't justify cutting yet but they probably will have a reason by the end of summer, at least a 0.25 cut and wait.
Prices in eastern Canada are still high, is it possible to fall? I live in Prince Edward and I want to buy a house would you advise me to wait a little bit beyond Julay
Just win the lottery and leave Canada 🇨🇦
I agree
Montreal, Quebec City, Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg are full of affordable homes. Only Vancouver and Toronto are expensive because they are more desirable.
$650,000 is affordable? 😂😂😂
@@That90sShow this is 2024 not 2004. People where already paying that much 20 years ago in Vancouver. You can buy a brand new 3 bedroom 3 bathroom townhouse for under 500k in Winnipeg which is very affordable
@@Observer168
It's not affordable. Take the median salary, and you'll understand why.
@@Nemija East Indians and Chinese immigrants were buying $500,000 homes in Vancouver with normal salaries even 20 years ago. They found ways to make it more so educated people can certainly make it work. My parents came to Canada with absolutely nothing and were able to buy real estate with normal jobs. That was 20 years ago when homes were $500,000 each.
@@Nemija The average Canadian salary in October 2023 as deduced from Labour Force Survey (LFS) was approximately $64,850 per year.
According to the 2021 Canadian Income Survey (CIS), the average income in 2021 was $53,100, and the median income was $40,500.
Among large Canadian cities, Calgary had the highest average income of $60,000, and Montreal had the highest median income of $41,600.
Among populous Canadian provinces, Alberta offered the highest average and median income of $57,600 and $41,300.
Toronto and Calgary can be ranked as having the highest and second-highest income inequality, while Quebec and Atlantic Canada are regions with the highest income equality.
When you understand the goal is to get everyone out of home/land ownership, you will understand that rates are not going down after the biggest acquisition of debt in our lifetimes. They jack you up on the drug, then pull the punchbowl away (rates going higher). Most people will lose their homes.
Any predictions on Cambridge housing?
flip a coin.
I want interest rates INCREASES. Prices need to come down and by A LOT. The housing increases in the maritimes have just been completely bonkers considering our wages are way lower.
Inflation is over 10% thats the bottom line....now what they do is up to them.
They did cut the rates though!😉
CPI has to get to 2.5% before any cuts
If history is to repeat itself, when inflation rises, interest rates go up, and deficits balloon. So all else being equal, higher inflation means higher interest rates - meaning ever deeper deficits. This is vicious feedback loop with interest rates, inflation, and deficits. More inflation, more deficits. More deficits, higher inflation thus higher hard asset prices. Most homes in Canada have very little leverage. Even if interest rates go to 20%, it won't bother most home owners at least not enough to create a fire sale to drop prices materially across the board. We've lived through this in the seventies / eighties. Of course, should that happen today, it would trigger an inflationary depression which the world has never seen.
BOC won't cut RATES as he is smart now.
Sorry, what?
I’m confident that interest rates will go up, no down.
Unemployment rates is very high.
liked it, great analysis!!!
BOC drops rates before the US, supposedly our dollar will take a dive...
Not so long ago....The experts were saying that negative interest rates were possible. Wellllll!!!!! As a non expert,I am telling you that a prime rate of 15% is very possible.
Another "Like" for Jon Flynn. The spring real estate market was a bust. My target on the national average residential price is $575,000 which is considerably less than where we are The Canadian real estate pumpers on RUclips will have you believe that all is well and now is the best time to buy because as soon as the BoC reduces rates by 25 basis points, people will be lined up to buy homes. LOL CREA will keep pumping the "hype" and many folks ae pinning their hopes and dreams on rate cuts. I'll say again that I don't expect any rate cuts in 2024.
I agree the BOC shouldn't lower rates.....but they probably will
Misleading information. Excluding shelter costs, inflation is at 1.2% for the month of April. Within shelter, mortage interest cost alone is up 24.5% and won’t drop meaningfully until the market flushes out most of the cheap mortgages taken pre 2022. With the current inflation measures, maintaining the policy rate is greatly inflationary on its own.
I predict a rate rise in fall early winter.
Unemployment was kept low due to the amount of jobs from government, which is not ideal for economy
Real gdp is up but gdp per capita is down for the past 6 quarters. Also, why are you ignoring the massive head and shoulders pattern forming on the 2 year bond and 5 year bond yield charts?
The only thing that doesn’t make sense is how unemployment is so low when there are so many people being jobless and looking for any jobs to survive, how valid are these unemployment data and the new 90,000 jobs thats being created and boasted around.
Hello Jon,
is 5% down payment better than 20%? My wife is asking, Kinda crazy question but still she wants an answer from you but not from anyone haha
Guess didn’t age well.
I agree with you on interest rates, they will not go down the way some people think! Being a Landlord and having a high interest rates and one or two bad tenants, it is a combination of disaster for a owner. Who is a landlord of private own properties? is Government and they made rules sided with tenants. Tell us what kind of capitalist country is this, when they do not allow free rental market? If someone does not pay you , takes for every to get hearing and then they favour to a tenant, with payment program and you wait again another time again and again. But bank is running system like capitalism should. This is why is shortage of apartments and why is so expensive to rent. I'm a landlord for 40 years and it is the most shit bossiness you can be in!
Then sell. Shelter shouldn't be a business
If the BoC's top priority is to maintain the value of money (assuming they are actually referring to the Canadian dollar) then they should not cut rates. The $CAD is hovering around a very pathetic 73¢. While some say a low $CAD is good for exports, it's actually not because exporters use the low dollar as a crutch to disincentive efficiency, productivity and innovation. Meanwhile, anything we import, which is just about everything, costs more. Also, no matter what the BoC does, they also have to contend with a completely insane and irresponsible federal government that likes to spend money like drunken sailors. It's called fiscal dominance and it means that monetary policy is overpowered by government spending.
Anybody claiming a weak dollar is good for exports is an idiot
You have no idea at the rate people are being laid off. Trudeau government is trying to keep up by adding government jobs. I fear that if BOC miss the right time to start cutting then they might have to cut fast which will be dangerous for economy. So I feel that BOC should cut only 25 basis point in August and see the effect before next cut. I also believe that June is too early. Anyways most of the people are already broke which can be seen by a little visit to food bank.
Totally agree, I would like to see the Bank stay on course of hitting 2% inflation targets for a few months before cuts begin.
The pennant you showed looks a lot like a bull flag instead of bearish pennant
Yeah, cause the shape a bunch of numbers on a piece of paper make changes everything. 😂
The bank just cut rates
When don't they say "everything is contained" and all the other boiler plate bullshit? 😡😡😡😡😡😡😡😡
Rates are coming down starting next month. This gov wants to inflate away their debt,
Inflation has been under 3% for 2 months, time to slash interest rates. 😂😂😂
Ummm....nope.
GDP numbers were revised last month and cam out flat they are NOT positive lol, you would lose 10 000 $ against Ron Butler
Inflation will never go back to 2%. There is so much debt in the system, combined with structural deficits, that the bond market will demand higher and higher interest rates in order to fund the debt. Buy gold and bitcoin!
Gold is up 530% in CAD over the last 20 years. 26% a year.
lol, technical analysis is hilarious. It has the rational underpinnings and predictive power surpassing even astrology!
Can you explain more?
*As I see it, from all the talking heads I’ve watched* The fundamental assumption of technical analysis is that there are historical patterns that allow us to make predictions about future…stock price movements for instance. But stocks (and houses) aren’t traded in a vacuum. Humans trade them. So while human behaviour has an element of predictability because pattern seeking has enabled us to survive, there is nothing that says the external conditions (society, the economy, the weather!) in which humans trade stocks or buy houses, will remain the same, yet this is a requirement of technical analysis - that external factors remain the same (or close). You can give me all the technical analysis you want telling me house prices are going down, but then we get an external shock and interest rates drop and they go up instead. So your chart might make sense but the real world rarely conforms. Technical analysts will say “but that rate drop fit within our theory” but the reality is that there is a lot of backward looking justification for successes and failures and any theory that can explain anything and everything is more akin to astrology than science. I would submit that TA is not worth much because external factors can be pulled in to explain its failures so most of it isn’t internally consistent or coherent to begin with.
Jon has been using his supposed technical analysis, which he has no qualifications to make, for years now saying a crash is just around the corner. He is always saying you just have to wait 12-18 months longer. Then in 12-18 months he will say the same thing again.
No cuts…
No rate cut
They talk about low unenployment but these guys dont mentioned the part time jobs / government jobs thats being filled ... There is a reason why you see big lines for jobs and every other person you talk to is unemployed
does technical analysis ever work for housing? it really only works in the stock market because traders use it. chicken or the egg situation. housing is completely different and i don't believe it has ANY relevance at all for predicting the future prices. prove me wrong.
Technical analysis requires a leap of faith with one closed eye. It’s not about stocks vs houses, people move in herds in either case when someone gives them a reason (a good chart). It’s about the fact that history is a one way street- it doesn’t repeat, although it does rhyme. Given the existence of Black Swan events etc etc the idea that TA has predictive power is laughable. But yes, if you tell enough people to buy or sell many will follow the herd….until they don’t. So…TA works, until it doesn’t. But because it doesn’t contain within herself an explanation (until after the fact, which is easy) *why* its predictive power ends, it is nothing better than astrology.
@@davidhughes6048 i cant imagine more than 1% of this market referencing technical analysis when buying or selling. the only reason it can SOMETIMES work with stocks is the transactions take a second vs weeks... and day traders use it to decide entries or existing. thats not how it works with housing. seems like hogwash and theres no data supporting it as a reliable metric.
What everyone should comprehend is that no matter how unaffordable home prices are, the system cannot tolerate the austerity and deflation required to bring back prices to affordability. To do so is political suicide. The only way to implement austerity is to manufacture an enemy and blame the belt tightening on him.
That's why they're orcastraiting a slow bleed by only setting rates at 5%.
I bought my house for $128k in 1996. The fellow I bought it from bought it for $116k in 1981. They are creating stagnation over a long long period untill wages catch up.
@@Stormshfter What you described above would be the best possible outcome.
Guess you were wrong
Actually BOC is taking his paycheque from Canada but working for US fed and following US😂😂
Because many stupid "economist" and realtors have been saying for more than one year rate will go down, the rate should jump to 5.5 or 6 to give the proper message to all the people who live with debts instead of work.
Have a high intrest rate and bring real estate down.(it is very very high)
If they cut rates in June they will be raising in Sept. lol.
this didnt age well lol
Predicting interest rates without mentioning lag effects?
Don’t bet against Ron butler unless you want to lose 10 thousand dollars
Jon doesn't have 10k to bet with in the first place.
Why do you change your so called technical analysis every time it doesn't fit your narrative? Last year it was all about the head and shoulders model. That ended up wrong so now you just don't talk about it anymore?
I’m getting you a prize for top commenter. Head and shoulders is still at play since it was the earliest prediction for breaking to the downside.
@@jonflynn is that how say you were wrong? You still really struggle with saying that don't you.
No rate cuts this June, big crash coming. Keep renting
nice
to the moon? it's the dollar losing buying power.