Asking a real estate agent whether you should buy a home right now is like to asking an alcoholic whether they think you should have a drink lol. Homes in my neighborhood that cost around $450k in sales in 2019 are now going for $800k to $950k. Every seller in my neighborhood is currently making a $350k profit. Simply unreal. In all honesty, deflation is what we require. The only other option is for many people to go bankrupt, which would also be bad for the economy. That is the only way to return to normal.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; its best to offset some of your real estate investments and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes. If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
Personally, I can connect to that. When I began working with Sophia Maurine Lanting’ a fiduciary financial counsellor, my advantages were certain. In these circumstances, I would always advise getting professional help so they can steer you through choppy markets and just give you indicators and strategies for knowing when to enter and exit the market.
Sophia Maurine Lanting” is my adviser and she is highly qualified and experienced in the financial market. She has extensive knowledge of portfolio diversity and is considered an expert in the field. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
In Victoria area on Van Island. Avg houses are 1.2 million, average household income is 84k. Houses can only work at 300k or the economy collapses. It's collapsing
@@matta7215 A disconnect as extreme as seen here is not sustainable. Math wins, every time. Restaurants are closing, there are shitloads of closed business frontages - it is definitely on its way to collapse. Nationwide its even worse
Van Island is all of the rich people from Canada moving there to die. The weather is nice and it is pretty, there is no real jobs there outside of service and Government (including health, education).People move there with millions in their pocket and do not need a job and will pay what it costs for a house to avoid snow.
My grandfather was a very wealthy home builder, he told me back in 1980 to never count on your home equity for your retirement. The cost of housing will always be relative and you will always need a home of some kind.
The generation that owns all this equity doesnt understand inflation. They see the dollars go up and as long as they are rich relative to others like them they dont care. They will cave into the cash at their kids and their own expense
Keeping housing values high only benefits investors. It's irrelevant to home owners if values are high or low unless you're selling to move to other accommodation like an old age home or a rental. Any money I have saved was worth more when home prices were low.
I don't know what exactly to tell you, They are right and they are wrong... As long as things stay on this path, Which they seem to be prices will not go down, More will go homeless, More will give up.
@@AxeRyan-d6j - I think the prices will go down, but slowly because the Canadian government is making money off of mortgage-backed securities and so they WANT the prices to remain high and for more people to get into the market. That's why they lowered the qualifications. It's a Ponzi scheme that will crash. I'm avoiding buying or selling right now and putting everything extra into precious metals--esp. gold. It usually holds value and increases faster than real estate and is less volatile than stocks like the S&P.
You nailed it . I feel sad for the new buyers that are going to fall in this trap . That will pop the bubble for sure . The correction in Canada is coming … just like 2008 in Usa
Yes how about the government just stay out of the natural process of prices lowering. Prices jumped to ridiculous amounts during the freak event pandemic, this is an expected and realistic correction. Even if prices lower a bit more, those that owned homes years earlier will still make a good profit in the end, but I guess greed has no bounds unfortunately...
Some Watrous saskatchewan homes have been selling $10000 to $20000 less than asking price. Not much to choose from. Being sold mostly to alberta, and bc residents gathered from seeing licence plates. Prices of houses $250000 to $450000. Usually sold within one to three months.
As another presenter said, the American dream is to own a business, the Canadian dream is to own real estate. This is why the Americans are more prosperous than we are, and it's a great time to force the market towards a shift in priorities to correct this imbalance.
Exactly. But government overreach, corruption and tyranny allows this market manipulation. Theres a reason America became a free prosperous country and its called 1776.
@@jacob9583 that's correct. Exhibit A: Mélanie Joly. A very ordinary, untalented person if we are generous, that was elevated through nepotism. Now she is Canada's foreign minister.
Calgary market: I had a 2bd 2 bath condo and prices went up like crazy. I thought it was ridiculous and decided to sell it in May for $315k. It sold in 3 days, there were only 5 similar condos for sale in my area. Now, there are about 50 up for sale, and there is also a condo exactly like the one i had, just one floor higher, it was listed in July for $319k, didn't sell for two months. Now they dropped price to $299k, on the market for 33 days now. Inventory is rising fast, prices are going down for this segment for sure.
The RE is really insanely priced out in Canada, especially in Vancouver. People shouldn't focus on rate drops, focus on the price, RE is double and some are over double the price that they should be. What you get for your money is 💩 right now
That is totally a bearish pennant. It really is perfect. Unfortunately the gov't is hell bent on trying to stop the sector from correcting. We have owned are home since 2003 and are a year and a half away from paying off our mortgage and I still want to see a correction. It's really unhealthy for our economy to have such an emphasis on real estate.
Another great analysis and synopsis, Jon. Also, thanks SO MUCH for the blue lines on your graph that make review of the numbers MUCH easier. Crazy numbers, though, eh?
Great report, thank you for putting this together. Perhaps we should be asking who in the government is doing the deep thinking on the market manipulation? The politiciansare not smart enough to manipulate the facts, the media, and the public so these policies are either coming from bureaucrats or high-powered consultants. - none of whom have the public's best interests at heart. Imagine being a first time buyer, you have worked for the last 10 years to save a down payment you are now 30+ and with a 30 year mortgage, you will be 60 before it is payed off. On top of this you will have replaced the roof twice, worn out 3 cars and replaced all the major appliances. This is not the finacial future any sensible person would wish for.
Houses are a basic need, not an investment! Crash the house prices! They should be according to median wage of the region! What about the Moncton area? I feel like it's a buyers market.
The stats show its a buyers market by huge margins, yet prices go up. Why is that? Because sales to new listings ratio is a bad metric. It doesn't take into account all the listing where people just re-list at a different price. So there are a lot of listing that are just duplicates, triplicate, or maybe even more
Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger use a contrarian investing approach. They are fearful when people are greedy and greedy when people are fearful. Unwavering house prices denotes a state of residual greed. We have not entered a period of true fear yet. Markets only have 2 cycles. What else needs to be said?
Media thrives on bad news! What they don't want is misleading news/information. Be careful who you listen to? It's never a wrong time to buy your first house. Governments will always print money and devalue the dollar. which means in the long run prices will always go up.
About Montreal and the province of Quebec, it's probably Ontarian buyers moving in and keeping prices going up. I'm keeping an eye on Gatineau especially, the houses there used to be about 100k below Quebec City before pandemic, they are now 100k above.
@@rge9857 Indeed, a friend of mine bought one for 250K in... 2017 if I remember well? 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and one powder room. You"ll be lucky to get a 1 bedroom condo for that price in Gatineau today.
@@mr2_mike I know, right? They say it's the same in even Halifax these days. Do you also have spill over for BC? Or do they just move to the Okanagan Valley?
@@mariannerichard1321We do have BC spill over. Although, not as prevalent. I know of a few people that were from AB originally and moved to BC and now sold and are bringing their family to AB because they could sell and then buy in AB and be mortgage free. They typically have jobs already secured. It's the Ontario group that I'm not so sure they have a job to move for.
Its that time of the year John when market prices are low. Coming months should have higher prices and bigger sales volume with falling interest rates and govt incentives kicking in. Right time to get bargains.
Still speculators thinking the property prices won't ever fall. Once the unemployment kicks in they will start to fall. They had some of the largest price increases and they will not be spared when the crash kicks in Quebec.
Hi John, I am moving to Calgary with a wife and 2 kids. We would be first time home buyers and looking to enter the market. We are contemplating the idea of purchasing before we move there un Jan 2025. But looking at the data it seems like Calgary is at a peak and likely to start declining over the winter. Would you suggest renting for a short while and wait for the spring to purchase?
I’d be very cautious about purchasing in general. Spring Is usually the most expensive time to buy. Winter and summer are usually the cheapest. Don’t rush into anything that’s for sure
can you please add or talk about fort mcmurray and lolydminster alberta ? they have taken massive losses . i remember moving to fort mcmurray in 2016-2017 when a mobile home was 500k . they have lost 50% + since then .
Thanks jon for another great content Sellers not bringing there price down my neighbor listed his property around march still in the market not Selling but he refuse to bring his price down 😢
People have to realize that when inflation happens and their house goes up in value, they are actually poorer, not richer. They still only have the ability to buy 1 house of equal value to what they currently own - so no difference in wealth - and everything else in their lives - food, clothing, cars, energy is more expensive.
It's funny, the federal government think. Expensive homes = Better retirement. But you know what happens when housing is cheap? Property taxes are cheaper, with cheaper property taxes from lower cost people end up saving massive amounts of money per year on their home after they pay it off. Allowing them to save actual cash to put into real investments outside of housing. However, when you have expensive homes then you have higher property taxes, by definition. Higher cost = Higher taxes paid. Which means that if you want to make wealth in Canada you end up spending everything you own to just get a home. Then you have to hope that there is a market for you to sell at a higher level to make money. While if housing was cheap, that house would be paid off and the money saved from paying mortgages and taxes could be used to invest into Canadian stocks and companies. It's really a shame.
The massive drop in home prices is going to wipe out a lot of wealth. SO many ppl bought at extreme high, no matter what age ppl will have negative equity.
RE based economy is not sustainable. Canada must come out of this. It is good for Canada to ensure that home price comes down at least 30-40 % from here.
I am a twice home owner and I agree with you on that. The Canadian economy is being suffocated by this upper valuation of Canadian homes. Most people by now know someone who cant find a home (due to high cost) or someone or family who is going broke due to high cost of servicing jumbo size mortgages.
I took a drive through Dain City to see the fancy new bridge and development in the community today. Nice park space coming into form, looks amazing. I know you love stats so here’s some for you. In the new housing dev mid-transition to homeowner occupied, I counted 12/16 of the realtor signs were Indian names/headshots. I don’t recall Dain City being a burgeoning Indian community in my youth in the 90s/00’s. And of the remaining signs one was a Chinese name, and 3 Canadian names. Interestingly the Canadian names were limited to for rent/for lease signs only. I was wondering your thoughts on what this tells us about the real estate market in Niagara? As a young person in my 30s in Niagara it is crystal clear to me why I can’t afford to buy a home here. I think the locals would say we don’t need experts to tell us that. As far as I can see Indian investors from the GTA will be taking a disproportionate share of the losses should this market really go South, and that would be well-deserved punishment for driving up prices. There is also an alarming lack of basements being dug for the number of fully serviced lots ready to go. Will these be our future slums in Canadian society? You know my answer.
It seems the majority of our new subdivisions have been bought up from speculators/quasi investors from the GTA. This has driven up our prices as you stated and will take time to fix as people realize it’s not a get rich quick scheme anymore. Many will lose going forward
Edmonton might be more resilient with the $16 billion Dow plant upgrade that has kicked late last year. Many other large Billion $ projects kicking off around the same time. Hydrogen plants, pipelines, carbon capture...etc Unions here have been getting higher wages after about 10 years without any which should also support home prices
If people are smart, and can do it, they should sell now an look to another province with lower costs of housing. Get out of your mortgage if possible or sell before it comes due. That's what we did. No mortgage now and in Alberta. Check Saskatchewan, it's cheaper too.
I wonder how many people are getting pinched by the CRA on capital gains tax on flipping houses? I suspect these investors are not claiming, especially the international investors.
Translate to Fr for Que. Not very PC? 😂 Agree on most but do Cdns have a conundrum? Affordable homes/RE $ but also allow new gen of buyers (any age) to make a profit as a seller? Can we have it both ways? Most new buyers use $ made or equity on main prop to move up or leverage to buy investment RE. How to maintain affordability in line w/ avg income for new/future buyers and allow for profit? Role of layoffs, cost of living etc in prices? Who’s responsible for these? Edit: stats on younger home owners not selling but waiting to sell up?
The government started price wars, they also started the increase in assessments as it gives them more taxes on land tax as so far they screwed up with no capital gains on home sales
70% less student applications to canada the 1000 room rental is over. A glut of rental vacancies is soon to be.thatll knock the crap out of house and apartment values plus a lot less homeless 1 bdrm full suite will be 700 tops not 1700
Aside from the fact that these new gov measures branded as 'helping' first time buyers are themselves inflationary...can CMHC actually cover worst case loses when we go to new $1.5M cap? Nobody seems to be talking about that. Gov insured mortgages and low downpayment give me nightmares of Fannie and Freddie-style taxpayer bailouts...
Calgary here: RentFaster listings are reaching close to 8,000 vacant units. For-sale inventory is also rising, with price drops happening more often. With so many rental units vacant, why would out-of-the-province investors continue to buy real estate here? The day the recession officially starts, the oil will drop, bringing more pressure to the Calgary market. Many people are not aware of Calgary's boom and bust cycles.
Nor are they aware of fire seasons, -40 winters, flaking skin from dry air and the added cost for Costco sized body lotion, expensive groceries, lack of day care… the list goes on😂
Housing is a right. When will the politicians understand that? everyone should be able to buy or rent a home and have money for other stuff- bills, leisure, savings, etc. Hold each level of gov't accountable. Housing prices have to come down to be affordable. Prices are outright ridiculous thank to gov't and private sector collusion and scamming of the public.
Unemployment Unemployment Inflation and Hugher Amortization periods poor taxing rules. Why everybody is buying and the same house every year and gov doesn't stop this behaviour by taxing them (short term gain tax)....don't understand the logic of prices 5x times when jumbo rate cuts happen. This country is screwed
Hmmmm so to summarize, prices went UP again in GTA despite your predictions that they would decline. Once again. What happens if the price drop never comes?
Fortunately, Canada isn't the only country on earth. If you can afford a home in Canada, you probably are a professional of some sort. Take your talent and skill elsewhere, where you can afford a decent living.
Avg price is meaningless, in a weak market "better" homes sell as the middle class still have money compared to the working class. Why not do volume ie sum of all prices sold?
@@aiqueenla2786 The economy is fine, Too many people/companies screwing with the finances of it and other issues that can not be discussed on here. If we were not being taxed to death in every possible way by so many groups Canada would be a rich nation., and taxes go a lot deeper then just what the government puts out, A lot deeper, Taxes are theft.
Time to buy market shift coming soon in next year. Current price is almost bottom I don’t think any government allows price to crash. If prices started to crash more from here you will see more immigration that the instrument to control the crash 😂 better get in the market.
A real estate mortgage broker just announced on his RUclips channel condo market will crash, but small single family homes will go up in price next spring, his reasons are new mortgage rules and first time hone buyers will enter the market. I do not agree at all with his views, but could this have some truth in it?
Thing is when house prices drop then third parties like Black Rock pick them up, Or investors leaving the prices to go high again, And if insurance acceptance goes up then so will what a person can get for a mortgage and thus the prices as well in my opinion. It is all just a scam, But so is renting.
I'm wondering if alberta has more people going there because of how the pandemic panned out. Myself and others had the conversation to move back because of the sheet show our country became
One of the most briIIiant investing advice i have ever gotten on youtube came from watching an interview with *Julianne Iwersen Niemann* on CNBC. Indeed, A solid investment strategy is like a well-planted tree it can withstand storms and still grow strong.
I can only speak from my experience when I advise seeking professional advice. It looks like a smart bet if you don't know where to get an experienced one, but if you don't know anything about the market.
You did nothing wrong, Consider your equity, As long as the equity in your home is going up you are fine, If it drops, Sell and start again, You should not have to but as long as people keep opening that greed door things will not get better, and they are... Renting is just dropping your equity in some one else pocket and it is stealing from you, As I call it equity theft, Same are manipulated into believing renting is better, Same as some think having a condo is not just another form of renting. Trying times ahead.
Thanks Jon, here in Ottawa real estate Sales has picked up month over month by 11%. I’m with many others wishing prices would continue to drop, not sure that will happen around here.
@marcelmed4574 of course it will eventually pop, it's just they keep making policies to keep it high, when most are broke, then I guess their plan will have worked.
So many years hearing this, I’m giving up hope that prices will go down to sensible pricing with cheaper fixer upper and starter home prices. I do agree with you though I don’t have a lot of economic knowledge only that this country is a mess and it can’t possibly get better before a real recession hits us. And of course if we get rid of the global WEF infected politicians serving their demonic agenda.
i'm looking to buy in Ottawa at some point. My existing townhome has about 150k left on it for a mortgage, and i want to buy a 4bed 4 bath single family, those start at 800k... It is possible for me to buy the new house and put the existing house on rent but then i'd become a debt slave
!I recently sold some of my long-term position and currently sitting on about 250k, do you think Nvidia is a good buy right now or I have I missed out on a crucial buy period, any good stock recommendation on great performing stocks or Crypto will be appreciated!
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I don't really blame people who panic. Lack of information can be a big hurdle. I've been making more than $100k passively by just investing through an advisor, and I don't have to do much work. Inflation or no inflation, my finances remain secure. So I really don't blame people who panic.
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Asking a real estate agent whether you should buy a home right now is like to asking an alcoholic whether they think you should have a drink lol. Homes in my neighborhood that cost around $450k in sales in 2019 are now going for $800k to $950k. Every seller in my neighborhood is currently making a $350k profit. Simply unreal. In all honesty, deflation is what we require. The only other option is for many people to go bankrupt, which would also be bad for the economy. That is the only way to return to normal.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; its best to offset some of your real estate investments and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes. If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
Personally, I can connect to that. When I began working with Sophia Maurine Lanting’ a fiduciary financial counsellor, my advantages were certain. In these circumstances, I would always advise getting professional help so they can steer you through choppy markets and just give you indicators and strategies for knowing when to enter and exit the market.
I'd be glad to get the help of one, but just how can one spot a reputable one? How did you spot this Sophia ?
Sophia Maurine Lanting” is my adviser and she is highly qualified and experienced in the financial market. She has extensive knowledge of portfolio diversity and is considered an expert in the field. I recommend researching her credentials further. She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website… thank you for sharing.
In Victoria area on Van Island. Avg houses are 1.2 million, average household income is 84k. Houses can only work at 300k or the economy collapses. It's collapsing
Do you really believe that? Employment is high. Everything is continuing more or less as it always has. Yet it’s “collapsing” ??
@@matta7215 A disconnect as extreme as seen here is not sustainable. Math wins, every time. Restaurants are closing, there are shitloads of closed business frontages - it is definitely on its way to collapse. Nationwide its even worse
@@matta7215 uneducated will just babble on. We look at the real facts. These clowns just listen to RUclips to educate them.
@@matta7215 you mis-spelled "unemployment"
Van Island is all of the rich people from Canada moving there to die. The weather is nice and it is pretty, there is no real jobs there outside of service and Government (including health, education).People move there with millions in their pocket and do not need a job and will pay what it costs for a house to avoid snow.
My grandfather was a very wealthy home builder, he told me back in 1980 to never count on your home equity for your retirement. The cost of housing will always be relative and you will always need a home of some kind.
Good advice
The generation that owns all this equity doesnt understand inflation. They see the dollars go up and as long as they are rich relative to others like them they dont care. They will cave into the cash at their kids and their own expense
Keeping housing values high only benefits investors. It's irrelevant to home owners if values are high or low unless you're selling to move to other accommodation like an old age home or a rental. Any money I have saved was worth more when home prices were low.
Good point
But... but... but... my Realtor says now is the best time to BUY ?
Oh wait a minute..... my Realtor ALWAYS says that... Hmmmm ?
Ya their bad, no consenence
I don't know what exactly to tell you, They are right and they are wrong... As long as things stay on this path, Which they seem to be prices will not go down, More will go homeless, More will give up.
tell him/her to go away
@@AxeRyan-d6j - I think the prices will go down, but slowly because the Canadian government is making money off of mortgage-backed securities and so they WANT the prices to remain high and for more people to get into the market. That's why they lowered the qualifications. It's a Ponzi scheme that will crash. I'm avoiding buying or selling right now and putting everything extra into precious metals--esp. gold. It usually holds value and increases faster than real estate and is less volatile than stocks like the S&P.
@@AxeRyan-d6j As long as there's not enough new starts to meet demand people will always be willing to pay because you gotta live somewhere.
You nailed it . I feel sad for the new buyers that are going to fall in this trap . That will pop the bubble for sure . The correction in Canada is coming … just like 2008 in Usa
I can't imagine what Canada's economy will look like if these two lunatics stay in office for a few more years.
Unemployment will be rising as will inventory which will translate to lower rents (already being seen) and lower purchase prices.
😂 rents are definitely not lowering idk what ur smoking
Yes how about the government just stay out of the natural process of prices lowering. Prices jumped to ridiculous amounts during the freak event pandemic, this is an expected and realistic correction. Even if prices lower a bit more, those that owned homes years earlier will still make a good profit in the end, but I guess greed has no bounds unfortunately...
Some Watrous saskatchewan homes have been selling $10000 to $20000 less than asking price. Not much to choose from. Being sold mostly to alberta, and bc residents gathered from seeing licence plates. Prices of houses $250000 to $450000. Usually sold within one to three months.
Seem the same in North Alberta, a place just sold for 240, that was listed 485 🤷🏻♂️
As another presenter said, the American dream is to own a business, the Canadian dream is to own real estate. This is why the Americans are more prosperous than we are, and it's a great time to force the market towards a shift in priorities to correct this imbalance.
100%
Exactly. But government overreach, corruption and tyranny allows this market manipulation. Theres a reason America became a free prosperous country and its called 1776.
@@jacob9583 that's correct. Exhibit A: Mélanie Joly. A very ordinary, untalented person if we are generous, that was elevated through nepotism. Now she is Canada's foreign minister.
I feel like the American dream is to eat more hamburgers....
After the Americans gained independence the Brits made sure Canada stayed subservient. The population here has tended to be averse to innovation.
Calgary market: I had a 2bd 2 bath condo and prices went up like crazy. I thought it was ridiculous and decided to sell it in May for $315k. It sold in 3 days, there were only 5 similar condos for sale in my area. Now, there are about 50 up for sale, and there is also a condo exactly like the one i had, just one floor higher, it was listed in July for $319k, didn't sell for two months. Now they dropped price to $299k, on the market for 33 days now. Inventory is rising fast, prices are going down for this segment for sure.
where is your area pls? SE?
😮
The RE is really insanely priced out in Canada, especially in Vancouver. People shouldn't focus on rate drops, focus on the price, RE is double and some are over double the price that they should be.
What you get for your money is 💩 right now
Price is what you pay value is what you get
Price is what you pay; value is what you get.
@@anthonyfiorilli2309 Value is not worth the price!
@@anthonyfiorilli2309 a price can still be double what it should be...
@@anthonyfiorilli2309 Exactly, so you all are on the same page
That is totally a bearish pennant. It really is perfect. Unfortunately the gov't is hell bent on trying to stop the sector from correcting. We have owned are home since 2003 and are a year and a half away from paying off our mortgage and I still want to see a correction.
It's really unhealthy for our economy to have such an emphasis on real estate.
Very true
20 years of unrealistic low interest rates, greed is destruction
I agree
This is a perfect summary of Canadian housing market
Well the boomers won’t be able to sell them since nobody younger can afford them 😂
A home is worth what a buyer will pay. There will always be buyers but not at today's prices.
So they will rent them average 3 bedroom 2 bath house without basement apartment around 4 grand
It's very sad that younger can't afford but the government is fixing that problem, they are bringing in those that can.....
Don't worry, Trudeau will sell us out to foreign ownership, like he's doing with the rest of the country.
....and that's precisely why they are allowing mass immigration! BINGO!
I liked it before i even watched it. Looking forward to your updates.
Actually the algorithm will ignore your like. Like towards the end of the video. Cheers.
Another great analysis and synopsis, Jon. Also, thanks SO MUCH for the blue lines on your graph that make review of the numbers MUCH easier. Crazy numbers, though, eh?
Glad you like them!
Great report, thank you for putting this together.
Perhaps we should be asking who in the government is doing the deep thinking on the market manipulation?
The politiciansare not smart enough to manipulate the facts, the media, and the public so these policies are either coming from bureaucrats or high-powered consultants. - none of whom have the public's best interests at heart.
Imagine being a first time buyer, you have worked for the last 10 years to save a down payment you are now 30+ and with a 30 year mortgage, you will be 60 before it is payed off.
On top of this you will have replaced the roof twice, worn out 3 cars and replaced all the major appliances.
This is not the finacial future any sensible person would wish for.
Houses are a basic need, not an investment! Crash the house prices! They should be according to median wage of the region! What about the Moncton area? I feel like it's a buyers market.
That was what I always said, however many greedy people disagreed, without the basic needs, life is meaningless, the world has become so sad .
EXACTLY.....It's nothing more than a vote-buying SCAM.....for friends of gov;t!
You sound like an eternal renter
@@samoday2992 ....and you sound like an eternal opportunist and exploiter....while we're name-calling.
@@newlife956 is that supposed to have any substance? Keep paying your rent you peasant .
The stats show its a buyers market by huge margins, yet prices go up. Why is that?
Because sales to new listings ratio is a bad metric. It doesn't take into account all the listing where people just re-list at a different price. So there are a lot of listing that are just duplicates, triplicate, or maybe even more
Jon purposely uses misleading stats that fit his narrative.
Good point. What else do we use to measure the market balance though?
Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger use a contrarian investing approach. They are fearful when people are greedy and greedy when people are fearful. Unwavering house prices denotes a state of residual greed. We have not entered a period of true fear yet. Markets only have 2 cycles. What else needs to be said?
Excellent reporting & commentary.
Thanks
Hope u r wrong about the edmonton market, but by far the best analysis for real-estate!
Jon has been wrong on every prediction he has made. Don't count on him being right about Edmonton.
I noticed in mainstream media not a peep or poop about possibility of declining house prices in the near future.
They are doing everything they can to avoid reporting on the inevitable!
😂
Media thrives on bad news! What they don't want is misleading news/information. Be careful who you listen to? It's never a wrong time to buy your first house. Governments will always print money and devalue the dollar. which means in the long run prices will always go up.
That's why I avoid mainstream anything and get my news from the internet and RUclips with great analysts like Jon, Bald Guy Money, etc.
About Montreal and the province of Quebec, it's probably Ontarian buyers moving in and keeping prices going up. I'm keeping an eye on Gatineau especially, the houses there used to be about 100k below Quebec City before pandemic, they are now 100k above.
That's Alberta. Have never seen so many blue plates. Sadly they don't work they're here looking for re investments for others I think.
I bought my first home in Gatineau for $89,999 in 1991. Single family, 3 bedrooms, two bathrooms. Times have certainly changed.
@@rge9857 Indeed, a friend of mine bought one for 250K in... 2017 if I remember well? 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and one powder room. You"ll be lucky to get a 1 bedroom condo for that price in Gatineau today.
@@mr2_mike I know, right? They say it's the same in even Halifax these days. Do you also have spill over for BC? Or do they just move to the Okanagan Valley?
@@mariannerichard1321We do have BC spill over. Although, not as prevalent. I know of a few people that were from AB originally and moved to BC and now sold and are bringing their family to AB because they could sell and then buy in AB and be mortgage free.
They typically have jobs already secured. It's the Ontario group that I'm not so sure they have a job to move for.
Raising the CMHC limit to 1.5 mill, Capital Gains to 66% makes total sense if you plan on a currency reset 🧐
Thank you for the information! Appreciate the time and effort you put into this. Very informative!
Its that time of the year John when market prices are low. Coming months should have higher prices and bigger sales volume with falling interest rates and govt incentives kicking in. Right time to get bargains.
@@shanmarg and who can afford this besides importing wealthy people?
As I understand it, interest rates are not dropping because the bond market determines mortgage rates and it is pricing in future inflation.
Do you know why the price do not go down in Quebec
Still speculators thinking the property prices won't ever fall. Once the unemployment kicks in they will start to fall. They had some of the largest price increases and they will not be spared when the crash kicks in Quebec.
Month over month prices are up? Why is that? I thought prices in trreb and ITSO arr coming down?
Hi John, I am moving to Calgary with a wife and 2 kids. We would be first time home buyers and looking to enter the market. We are contemplating the idea of purchasing before we move there un Jan 2025. But looking at the data it seems like Calgary is at a peak and likely to start declining over the winter. Would you suggest renting for a short while and wait for the spring to purchase?
I’d be very cautious about purchasing in general. Spring
Is usually the most expensive time to buy. Winter and summer are usually the cheapest. Don’t rush into anything that’s for sure
Can you please try and analyze what's going on in Montreal next time? Thank you.
It would be interesting to also see the foreclosure % to arrears contrast
can you please add or talk about fort mcmurray and lolydminster alberta ? they have taken massive losses . i remember moving to fort mcmurray in 2016-2017 when a mobile home was 500k . they have lost 50% + since then .
Excellent
Informative
Fun watching 👀
Thanks 👍
Is the house on your screen for sale?
😅🤣😂
$1.2M
Thanks jon for another great content Sellers not bringing there price down my neighbor listed his property around march still in the market not Selling but he refuse to bring his price down 😢
People have to realize that when inflation happens and their house goes up in value, they are actually poorer, not richer.
They still only have the ability to buy 1 house of equal value to what they currently own - so no difference in wealth - and everything else in their lives - food, clothing, cars, energy is more expensive.
You are smart, Hope you become wise as well.
I made a wish to a genie to live in a million dollar home and the genie made my home worth a million dollars. I was duped😊
It's funny, the federal government think. Expensive homes = Better retirement.
But you know what happens when housing is cheap? Property taxes are cheaper, with cheaper property taxes from lower cost people end up saving massive amounts of money per year on their home after they pay it off. Allowing them to save actual cash to put into real investments outside of housing.
However, when you have expensive homes then you have higher property taxes, by definition. Higher cost = Higher taxes paid. Which means that if you want to make wealth in Canada you end up spending everything you own to just get a home. Then you have to hope that there is a market for you to sell at a higher level to make money. While if housing was cheap, that house would be paid off and the money saved from paying mortgages and taxes could be used to invest into Canadian stocks and companies.
It's really a shame.
The massive drop in home prices is going to wipe out a lot of wealth. SO many ppl bought at extreme high, no matter what age ppl will have negative equity.
Prices in Montreal and Quebec province are more reasonable, and are rising because Ontario buyers are overflowing towards Quebec province
the MoM Price Change charts are so much better with the lines
13:10 what should the ratio be for it to be in the buyers market?
Less than 40% buyer
40-60% balanced
Above 60% seller
How do you see Manitoba market? Thanks!
ty for ur work !
Welcome!
RE based economy is not sustainable. Canada must come out of this. It is good for Canada to ensure that home price comes down at least 30-40 % from here.
Exactly most real estate is an unproductive asset. Other than producing housing widgets, to fulfill basic needs.
It will happen over a few more years. This bear market is still going strong.
60% at least
I am a twice home owner and I agree with you on that. The Canadian economy is being suffocated by this upper valuation of Canadian homes. Most people by now know someone who cant find a home (due to high cost) or someone or family who is going broke due to high cost of servicing jumbo size mortgages.
@@MattJ3 🤣😭
Thanks for the valuable insights!
Thanks for another interesting video. toronto.
Thank you too!
$300k for a condo in guleph Ontario is not a buyer market. The real estate market is a farce.
Edmonton is still a sellers market?! I'll wait for it.
No report this week for Nova Scotia live in BC my house for sale in Halifax.
Numbers weren’t out for the video. Will have some stats next video
I took a drive through Dain City to see the fancy new bridge and development in the community today. Nice park space coming into form, looks amazing. I know you love stats so here’s some for you. In the new housing dev mid-transition to homeowner occupied, I counted 12/16 of the realtor signs were Indian names/headshots. I don’t recall Dain City being a burgeoning Indian community in my youth in the 90s/00’s. And of the remaining signs one was a Chinese name, and 3 Canadian names. Interestingly the Canadian names were limited to for rent/for lease signs only. I was wondering your thoughts on what this tells us about the real estate market in Niagara? As a young person in my 30s in Niagara it is crystal clear to me why I can’t afford to buy a home here. I think the locals would say we don’t need experts to tell us that. As far as I can see Indian investors from the GTA will be taking a disproportionate share of the losses should this market really go South, and that would be well-deserved punishment for driving up prices. There is also an alarming lack of basements being dug for the number of fully serviced lots ready to go. Will these be our future slums in Canadian society? You know my answer.
It seems the majority of our new subdivisions have been bought up from speculators/quasi investors from the GTA. This has driven up our prices as you stated and will take time to fix as people realize it’s not a get rich quick scheme anymore. Many will lose going forward
London Ontario is looking to creep up next to Vancouver pricing
Thanks Jon for the lines you added to the charts (they do help!) and for the great stats info! 😃
Glad you like them!
Edmonton might be more resilient with the $16 billion Dow plant upgrade that has kicked late last year. Many other large Billion $ projects kicking off around the same time. Hydrogen plants, pipelines, carbon capture...etc
Unions here have been getting higher wages after about 10 years without any which should also support home prices
spoken like someone who doesn't have a clue about the broad economy.
So there was always enough tulips.
If people are smart, and can do it, they should sell now an look to another province with lower costs of housing. Get out of your mortgage if possible or sell before it comes due. That's what we did. No mortgage now and in Alberta. Check Saskatchewan, it's cheaper too.
Have these changes passed?
No sarnia on tr charts?
Don't fight it...bears sound smart bulls make money.
Can you include the Maritime provinces in your report?
Thank you 🙏🏼 great, valuable info as always!
Hater bots are out..means you are directly over the target. 😊
Thanks
Dear Jon, is it worth buying condo in Toronto or it is better to buy in gta or even farther a townhouse etc.?
It all depends on your specific situation
@@jonflynn what are the factors to consider? Say as an example 650k target price with 20% down
Buy one in Brampton. Its only a 25-30 minute drive. And it outsides of the big city. Call Jon should you be interested. He can reach out to me.
it's better to leave unless you have a job that leeches off the population via the govt
@@CallPaula4RealEstate yeah I hear Brampton is *really* nice
Well said, thanks ❤
I wonder how many people are getting pinched by the CRA on capital gains tax on flipping houses?
I suspect these investors are not claiming, especially the international investors.
Good point
Translate to Fr for Que. Not very PC? 😂 Agree on most but do Cdns have a conundrum? Affordable homes/RE $ but also allow new gen of buyers (any age) to make a profit as a seller? Can we have it both ways? Most new buyers use $ made or equity on main prop to move up or leverage to buy investment RE. How to maintain affordability in line w/ avg income for new/future buyers and allow for profit? Role of layoffs, cost of living etc in prices? Who’s responsible for these? Edit: stats on younger home owners not selling but waiting to sell up?
Fun times are just beginning I hope.
19:25 maybe we need to translate this to French 😂😂😂
A price correction, so what. I still prefer living in big, safe and fun Toronto.
I'm starting to see the "mom and pop" we buy houses cash signs in Montreal again. Might explain the new high. Stupid investors yet again.
The government started price wars, they also started the increase in assessments as it gives them more taxes on land tax as so far they screwed up with no capital gains on home sales
Don't forget the banks who have through mortgages helped push prices past what people can really afford.
70% less student applications to canada the 1000 room rental is over. A glut of rental vacancies is soon to be.thatll knock the crap out of house and apartment values plus a lot less homeless 1 bdrm full suite will be 700 tops not 1700
Account for inflation and lost investment opportunity gains home prices down more like 35 percent in purchasing power in Windsor.
Good point
JUNIOR HAS A LARGE REAL ESTATE portfolio, so he will protect his investment at any cost.
Yep
Aside from the fact that these new gov measures branded as 'helping' first time buyers are themselves inflationary...can CMHC actually cover worst case loses when we go to new $1.5M cap? Nobody seems to be talking about that. Gov insured mortgages and low downpayment give me nightmares of Fannie and Freddie-style taxpayer bailouts...
Calgary here: RentFaster listings are reaching close to 8,000 vacant units. For-sale inventory is also rising, with price drops happening more often. With so many rental units vacant, why would out-of-the-province investors continue to buy real estate here? The day the recession officially starts, the oil will drop, bringing more pressure to the Calgary market. Many people are not aware of Calgary's boom and bust cycles.
Nor are they aware of fire seasons, -40 winters, flaking skin from dry air and the added cost for Costco sized body lotion, expensive groceries, lack of day care… the list goes on😂
Thanks for the info. I’m guessing the out of province investors are being misled.
Housing is a right. When will the politicians understand that? everyone should be able to buy or rent a home and have money for other stuff- bills, leisure, savings, etc. Hold each level of gov't accountable. Housing prices have to come down to be affordable. Prices are outright ridiculous thank to gov't and private sector collusion and scamming of the public.
Government is not your friend.
There are homeless shelters for those who think housing is a right.
@@rge9857 And the universe listened to you and will give you what
you deserve. so people don't need food, clothing and shelter in your investor world.
Unemployment Unemployment Inflation and Hugher Amortization periods poor taxing rules. Why everybody is buying and the same house every year and gov doesn't stop this behaviour by taxing them (short term gain tax)....don't understand the logic of prices 5x times when jumbo rate cuts happen. This country is screwed
Hmmmm so to summarize, prices went UP again in GTA despite your predictions that they would decline. Once again. What happens if the price drop never comes?
If price drops don’t come our currency will fail and we will have widespread civil unrest
Fortunately, Canada isn't the only country on earth. If you can afford a home in Canada, you probably are a professional of some sort. Take your talent and skill elsewhere, where you can afford a decent living.
Avg price is meaningless, in a weak market "better" homes sell as the middle class still have money compared to the working class.
Why not do volume ie sum of all prices sold?
When the economy is bad, I think it doesn’t matter what classes, companies will lay off to trim the costs as much as possible
@@aiqueenla2786 The economy is fine, Too many people/companies screwing with the finances of it and other issues that can not be discussed on here.
If we were not being taxed to death in every possible way by so many groups Canada would be a rich nation., and taxes go a lot deeper then just what the government puts out, A lot deeper, Taxes are theft.
Time to buy market shift coming soon in next year. Current price is almost bottom I don’t think any government allows price to crash. If prices started to crash more from here you will see more immigration that the instrument to control the crash 😂 better get in the market.
Are you a realtor?
@@jonflynn are you a liar?
banks are lowering rates because they are scared stiff to have to become a real estate depository.
A real estate mortgage broker just announced on his RUclips channel condo market will crash, but small single family homes will go up in price next spring, his reasons are new mortgage rules and first time hone buyers will enter the market. I do not agree at all with his views, but could this have some truth in it?
Crash is coming
Thing is when house prices drop then third parties like Black Rock pick them up, Or investors leaving the prices to go high again, And if insurance acceptance goes up then so will what a person can get for a mortgage and thus the prices as well in my opinion.
It is all just a scam, But so is renting.
I'm wondering if alberta has more people going there because of how the pandemic panned out. Myself and others had the conversation to move back because of the sheet show our country became
One of the most briIIiant investing advice i have ever gotten on youtube came from watching an interview with *Julianne Iwersen Niemann* on CNBC. Indeed, A solid investment strategy is like a well-planted tree it can withstand storms and still grow strong.
I can only speak from my experience when I advise seeking professional advice. It looks like a smart bet if you don't know where to get an experienced one, but if you don't know anything about the market.
Crap... just brought because sick of paying rent
A few months ago
You did nothing wrong, Consider your equity, As long as the equity in your home is going up you are fine, If it drops, Sell and start again, You should not have to but as long as people keep opening that greed door things will not get better, and they are... Renting is just dropping your equity in some one else pocket and it is stealing from you, As I call it equity theft, Same are manipulated into believing renting is better, Same as some think having a condo is not just another form of renting.
Trying times ahead.
Nothing is sinking
We r in middle of biggest real estate crash wake up
House selling in toronto %40-50 percent less
❤❤
The scammers are really spamming big time on here!
Paying an extra 100000 $ over the extra 5 years
Thanks Jon, here in Ottawa real estate Sales has picked up month over month by 11%. I’m with many others wishing prices would continue to drop, not sure that will happen around here.
@marcelmed4574 of course it will eventually pop, it's just they keep making policies to keep it high, when most are broke, then I guess their plan will have worked.
The massive price increase is on the way in Calgary very soon.
Don’t buy anything. The mother of all crashes is coming fast!
I wonder how big the next IR cut will be?
@@elim7228doesn’t matter how big the cuts are if people don’t have enough money to buy
Nope. 90-day mtg arrears are still only at 21 BIPS
@@elim722850 points in the rumour on YT.
So many years hearing this, I’m giving up hope that prices will go down to sensible pricing with cheaper fixer upper and starter home prices.
I do agree with you though I don’t have a lot of economic knowledge only that this country is a mess and it can’t possibly get better before a real recession hits us. And of course if we get rid of the global WEF infected politicians serving their demonic agenda.
i'm looking to buy in Ottawa at some point. My existing townhome has about 150k left on it for a mortgage, and i want to buy a 4bed 4 bath single family, those start at 800k...
It is possible for me to buy the new house and put the existing house on rent but then i'd become a debt slave
I would sell and buy, don’t let the debt burden you. If the rental market softens and your townhome sits empty you’ll regret it.
!I recently sold some of my long-term position and currently sitting on about 250k, do you think Nvidia is a good buy right now or I have I missed out on a crucial buy period, any good stock recommendation on great performing stocks or Crypto will be appreciated!
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