Thanks for the vid. If regulatory credits is a free market, a potential buyer could negociate a low price given Nio's current balance sheet and stock price. If Nio needs money, at current share price, issuing more shares is not the best. So if selling reg credits is Nio's only source of financing, the buyer would be in a better position. Flip side: if the ballance sheet and/or share price improves, Nio would have the upper hand in a negociation
This is great news Marcel! Thanks for the video and Happy Thanksgiving! I say it would be good to use these on they're 2026 note.. I think they paid 1/3 so far. Or, maybe burn shorts on a earnings call! 😃🤙 sneak attack!
Good stuff 👍 Hey Marcel! Im one of your subscribers. Thanks for the great job you are doing 🙏 I’m an advocate for Nio as well and have been since IPO. Just thinking of the unofficial registration numbers especially for Onvo. Just thinking because they are weekly numbers so the ones, 1000 unregistered that you brought up, may not be included the last week numbers? Maybe intentionally by the competitor, what do you think?
Don’t get it. As NIO is only producing in CN they can also just sell certificates in CN. Ist that right? In CN there is already a high penetration of EV ->weak demand for certificates? Are there any numbers of other CN OEM selling this in China like XPENG or Geely? This might bring the answer…
If they had regulatory credits, they would likely be using them. Given the scrutiny they’re facing over their bottom line, it doesn’t make much sense for them to hold onto those credits instead of using them.
Can you make a video about battery swap, according to my napkin calculations, each swap station on average, they swap 15 times a day. These swaps include free swaps
" Nio said it and Mastercard will work together to provide more value-added services to users worldwide, helping the company expand and grow its business in global markets."
Maybe NIO will try to win over better sentiment during COP29 to raise their 1 credit to 1 ton of carbon offset as one example. So if I were NIO, I wouldn't focus on disclosing credits awarded now until regulators start realizing the higher carbon offset through NIO imo. Which could shock wallstreet without being considered insider trading.
Hi Marcel, I greatly enjoy your videos and research and appreciate the detail and insight you contribute to the 'Nio world'. I was wondering if you could address the proverbial 'elephant in the room' - that being: Why is NIO management building out the Firefly that will NOT BE ABLE TO USE THE EXISTING SWAP STATION INFRASTRUCTURE OR BATTERY PACKS?! YES I know the target market is primarily for Europe and perhaps the rest of the world - but so what? They are already building out the legacy NIO and ONVO power swap stations in Europe and soon for the rest of the world, so why would they want to start an entirely unique power swap station and battery pack infrastructure dedicated ONLY TO FIREFLY ??? Not only that, but why would they want to limit Firefly sales to countries OUTSIDE CHINA??? Just imagine IF Firefly becomes more popular than either Nio or Onvo? Wouldn't it be smart if management left the door open for DOMESTIC SALES (inside China) so Firefly could utilize the ALREADY EXISTING and EXPANDING Nio/Onvo Powerswap station infrastructure? Having a unique battery pack for Firefly would not necessarily be a problem IF they made it available for swapping at EXISTING Nio and Onvo powerswap stations by adapting those powerswap stations to accommodate Firely size batteries. Furthermore, this will only CONFUSE potential buyers about NIO AND ONVO power swap stations and battery packs being entirely NON COMPATIBLE with FIRELY. A better plan would have been to build out powerswap stations at the beginning of the buildouts with the FORESIGHT of anticipating different sized battery packs for different types of vehicles. That WOULD have ensured a universal compatibility with ALL types of battery pack vehicle. FRANKLY THEIR THINKING ON THIS WAS and IS NOT LOGICAL. This seems like a colossal BLUNDER and I firmly believe Nio will do great harm to their company by trying to do this. They are already on thin ice trying to ramp up the EXISTING powerswap infrastructure and trying to convince new buyers of the future relevance of powerswap stations vs. the coming soon to be mainstream SOLID STATE battery packs with twice the range, half the weight and a 10 minute 80% capacity charge time. They MUST do an 'about face' and redesign Firely to be fully and universally compatible with EXSITING powerswap station infrastructure - or MODIFY EXISTING NIO/ONVO Powerswap stations to become UNIVERSAL SWAP STATIONS that can accept not ONLY Firefly, but also ALL OTHER MODELS coming in the future. By making Firely and ALL their vehicles - in addition to the Powerswap partners vehicles - FULLY UNIVERSAL AND COMPATIBLE with EXISTING and FUTURE Powerswap Stations.... .... they have a chance at making their Powerswap Stations the 'gas stations' of the future. Failure to do this, will ensure the failure of that vision.
There is a mistake in your chart with other revenues, in Q1 2022 other revenues were US$105.1 million not the 195 million in your chart and Q4 2021 was 107 million usd! What is nice to see is that other sales made up a larger chunk of the revenues in percentage: 2019(5,8%), 2020(6,5%), 2021(8,1%)(spike with credits??), 2022(7,2%), 2023(11,4%)
Im still confused on who will buy a not so cheap firefly EV that does battery swap, yet there isnt a single battery swap station for the brand. To build one out will take years and millions of $$. Madness 😅
I agree. It is MADNESS! It absolutely ridiculous that they are not modelling the Firefly on the NIO/ONVO Swap platform! WTF!! This is a STUPID STUPID MISTAKE and probably a deal breaker for me to get into this stock unfortunately because I do like the NIO/ONVO Battery swap platform strategy. Unless management do a MAJOR RETHINK on the whole separate and unique Firefly swap station buildout plan, they are going to inadvertently sink this company with unnecessary and unsustainable debt. Very poor management decision with Firefly. Very very disappointing.
@barr96 could be they'll use the Catl swap station for firefly. Firefly will be a competitor to smaller luxury brands like MB, Mini, I'm sure it will be priced under Onvo which will be still quite affordable, but not in the byd price bracket.
In my opinion, instead of spending all this money developing Onvo and Firefly subbrands (and a Nio Phone), they should have focused only on the Nio brand and made it more affordable and practical. Even legacy offers RWD versions of their cars. They could have done this with the Et5 and offer a cheaper base version. Also the problem with Nio cars is their practicality and efficiency. Onvo is more efficient and has more space inside. So as of right now Onvo is not crushing the market. It's just eating into Nio sales. And they're even developing a firefly brand... How is this going to ever compete with BYD? It's a bit disrespectful towards Nio users. They basically build a cheaper Nio car under a different brand name that can also battery swap.
nio stock isn't higher because it was selling a PREMIUM PRICED car that actually sold very well for a car in that segment. Now it has introduced ONVO the FIRST AFFORDABLE battery swapping vehicle at $28K! to be followed by FIREFLY an even more affordable. 2 MINUTE BATTERY swaps are the future!
@@i6power30🤡🤡 500kwh charging 😂😂 maybe in the lab, in real life people struggle to get +150 kwh if there is just half full of cars at the charging station.
@i6power30 first if 500kW charging is available, second you charge your battery at that power rate just do a simple math on the internal loss in the battery and how is going to damage the battery. Simply charging at 500 kW, the internal loss is 25 of charging at 100kW!
Marcel what is your opinion on Nio making Firefly non swappable. I think this could be a good response to the competition and could improve the bottom line. It also makes sense for overseas markets, EU would probably impose a minimal price cap on Chinese EVs, so super cheap Firefly is not an option. I hope the Nio management could consider this option.
from the images you can clearly see that the firefly car has a high wheelbase, I presume higher than 2.9 metres, despite the car being small in size, I believe around 4.2/4.3 metres, so it could be able to use the Onvo baas stations
The small swap stations are for the partner brands as well. Even if firefly starts out with a few swap stations and builds from there, then it's evs are still upgradable, franchise and petrol companies can pay for some of them.
Based on the other sales trend, it certainly seems to be the case of NIO not selling it yet and piling them up. Hope we see it in the report soon sending the other sales to over $600 million +
Just another speculation: May be these regulatory credits are not sold on a regular basis but handed over towards the Hefei local government as part of an agreed compensation for the bail out in 2019?
The graph makes it clear they are selling the regulatory credits as they go along. I assume the big spike it when they sold credits they had been hoarding before. Come on man
I only see "other sales" going up in sync with the cumulative fleet, as it should since more people are buying "other services". What I don't see anymore - since a long time, are those spikes by credit sales, like in the past.
It's normal that China is not doing well, the US government attacks them with tariffs, sanctions and bans in the technology sector and short attacks by investment institutions and they have a real estate crisis that they are overcoming over time. China will be a winning country in the future, whether the US government wants it or not.
![Noob To Max With DRAGON REWORK In Blox Fruits [FULL MOVIE]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/LnBMOinoOvA/mqdefault.jpg)
Thanks for the vid. If regulatory credits is a free market, a potential buyer could negociate a low price given Nio's current balance sheet and stock price. If Nio needs money, at current share price, issuing more shares is not the best. So if selling reg credits is Nio's only source of financing, the buyer would be in a better position.
Flip side: if the ballance sheet and/or share price improves, Nio would have the upper hand in a negociation
We reached 50,000 subscribers. Well done. I have been watching since middle of year 2020, almost 4 1/2 years time.
Very interesting and informative. Thanks Marcel.
This is great news Marcel! Thanks for the video and Happy Thanksgiving! I say it would be good to use these on they're 2026 note.. I think they paid 1/3 so far. Or, maybe burn shorts on a earnings call! 😃🤙 sneak attack!
If not carbon credits, what other sales they could have made? It would be good to know from the management if they are hoarding carbon credits.
Love the data 📈 Marcel
Interesting point
Thank you Marcel. Can't help feeling something big is coming soon
I agree on this
Thanks Marcel and happy Thanksgiving to all Nio fans
Hey Marcel, hope you time to make more Nio video, hopefully before or after Nio's day. Thanks in advance
Looks like a surprise quarter is coming maybe this quarter maybe one of the big quarters next year. Looks like they are sitting on the credits.
Good stuff 👍 Hey Marcel! Im one of your subscribers. Thanks for the great job you are doing 🙏 I’m an advocate for Nio as well and have been since IPO. Just thinking of the unofficial registration numbers especially for Onvo. Just thinking because they are weekly numbers so the ones, 1000 unregistered that you brought up, may not be included the last week numbers? Maybe intentionally by the competitor, what do you think?
Don’t get it. As NIO is only producing in CN they can also just sell certificates in CN. Ist that right? In CN there is already a high penetration of EV ->weak demand for certificates? Are there any numbers of other CN OEM selling this in China like XPENG or Geely? This might bring the answer…
Thanks for all the updates
If they had regulatory credits, they would likely be using them. Given the scrutiny they’re facing over their bottom line, it doesn’t make much sense for them to hold onto those credits instead of using them.
Maybe they are trying to burn shorts, the Onvo EO did recently come out to say NIO doubters beware.
Can you make a video about battery swap, according to my napkin calculations, each swap station on average, they swap 15 times a day. These swaps include free swaps
Thanks friend
" Nio said it and Mastercard will work together to provide more value-added services to users worldwide, helping the company expand and grow its business in global markets."
NIO is saving the credits for big surprise.
💪🏻🇨🇳
Agreed!
If nio hold onto the carbon credits, it stops other car makers faking greenness, and will have to actually build evs.
Maybe NIO will try to win over better sentiment during COP29 to raise their 1 credit to 1 ton of carbon offset as one example. So if I were NIO, I wouldn't focus on disclosing credits awarded now until regulators start realizing the higher carbon offset through NIO imo. Which could shock wallstreet without being considered insider trading.
Hi Marcel, I greatly enjoy your videos and research and appreciate the detail and insight you contribute to the 'Nio world'.
I was wondering if you could address the proverbial 'elephant in the room' - that being:
Why is NIO management building out the Firefly that will NOT BE ABLE TO USE THE EXISTING SWAP STATION INFRASTRUCTURE OR BATTERY PACKS?!
YES I know the target market is primarily for Europe and perhaps the rest of the world - but so what? They are already building out the legacy NIO and ONVO power swap stations in Europe and soon for the rest of the world, so why would they want to start an entirely unique power swap station and battery pack infrastructure dedicated ONLY TO FIREFLY ???
Not only that, but why would they want to limit Firefly sales to countries OUTSIDE CHINA???
Just imagine IF Firefly becomes more popular than either Nio or Onvo?
Wouldn't it be smart if management left the door open for DOMESTIC SALES (inside China) so Firefly could utilize the ALREADY EXISTING and EXPANDING Nio/Onvo Powerswap station infrastructure?
Having a unique battery pack for Firefly would not necessarily be a problem IF they made it available for swapping at EXISTING Nio and Onvo powerswap stations by adapting those powerswap stations to accommodate Firely size batteries.
Furthermore, this will only CONFUSE potential buyers about NIO AND ONVO power swap stations and battery packs being entirely NON COMPATIBLE with FIRELY.
A better plan would have been to build out powerswap stations at the beginning of the buildouts with the FORESIGHT of anticipating different sized battery packs for different types of vehicles. That WOULD have ensured a universal compatibility with ALL types of battery pack vehicle.
FRANKLY THEIR THINKING ON THIS WAS and IS NOT LOGICAL.
This seems like a colossal BLUNDER and I firmly believe Nio will do great harm to their company by trying to do this.
They are already on thin ice trying to ramp up the EXISTING powerswap infrastructure and trying to convince new buyers of the future relevance of powerswap stations vs. the coming soon to be mainstream SOLID STATE battery packs with twice the range, half the weight and a 10 minute 80% capacity charge time.
They MUST do an 'about face' and redesign Firely to be fully and universally compatible with EXSITING powerswap station infrastructure - or MODIFY EXISTING NIO/ONVO Powerswap stations to become UNIVERSAL SWAP STATIONS that can accept not ONLY Firefly, but also ALL OTHER MODELS coming in the future.
By making Firely and ALL their vehicles - in addition to the Powerswap partners vehicles -
FULLY UNIVERSAL AND COMPATIBLE with EXISTING and FUTURE Powerswap Stations....
.... they have a chance at making their Powerswap Stations the 'gas stations' of the future.
Failure to do this, will ensure the failure of that vision.
There is a mistake in your chart with other revenues, in Q1 2022 other revenues were US$105.1 million not the 195 million in your chart and Q4 2021 was 107 million usd!
What is nice to see is that other sales made up a larger chunk of the revenues in percentage: 2019(5,8%), 2020(6,5%), 2021(8,1%)(spike with credits??), 2022(7,2%), 2023(11,4%)
Im still confused on who will buy a not so cheap firefly EV that does battery swap, yet there isnt a single battery swap station for the brand. To build one out will take years and millions of $$. Madness 😅
I agree. It is MADNESS! It absolutely ridiculous that they are not modelling the Firefly on the NIO/ONVO Swap platform! WTF!!
This is a STUPID STUPID MISTAKE and probably a deal breaker for me to get into this stock unfortunately because I do like the NIO/ONVO Battery swap platform strategy.
Unless management do a MAJOR RETHINK on the whole separate and unique Firefly swap station buildout plan, they are going to inadvertently sink this company with unnecessary and unsustainable debt. Very poor management decision with Firefly. Very very disappointing.
You'd have to think if they did build costly Firefly swap stations, why would they come out and say profitability by 2026?
@4sky so what swap stations are firefly to use? 😀
@barr96 could be they'll use the Catl swap station for firefly. Firefly will be a competitor to smaller luxury brands like MB, Mini, I'm sure it will be priced under Onvo which will be still quite affordable, but not in the byd price bracket.
In my opinion, instead of spending all this money developing Onvo and Firefly subbrands (and a Nio Phone), they should have focused only on the Nio brand and made it more affordable and practical.
Even legacy offers RWD versions of their cars. They could have done this with the Et5 and offer a cheaper base version.
Also the problem with Nio cars is their practicality and efficiency. Onvo is more efficient and has more space inside.
So as of right now Onvo is not crushing the market. It's just eating into Nio sales. And they're even developing a firefly brand... How is this going to ever compete with BYD?
It's a bit disrespectful towards Nio users. They basically build a cheaper Nio car under a different brand name that can also battery swap.
They don't want to cheapen the Nio brand as they want to keep it high end. Making a sub brand seems like a good (long term) way to do that.
I wonder if they should maybe sell the credits to do more swap stations?
nio stock isn't higher because it was selling a PREMIUM PRICED car that actually sold very well for a car in that segment. Now it has introduced ONVO the FIRST AFFORDABLE battery swapping vehicle at $28K! to be followed by FIREFLY an even more affordable. 2 MINUTE BATTERY swaps are the future!
No one cares about battery swapping now that there are 500kw charging stations
@@i6power30really showing your ignorance there bud.
@@i6power30🤡🤡 500kwh charging 😂😂 maybe in the lab, in real life people struggle to get +150 kwh if there is just half full of cars at the charging station.
@i6power30 first if 500kW charging is available, second you charge your battery at that power rate just do a simple math on the internal loss in the battery and how is going to damage the battery. Simply charging at 500 kW, the internal loss is 25 of charging at 100kW!
When this company starts buying back shares against shorts and analysts .to protect their shares value. Or release good news
Just a matter of time , when NIO get envo deliveries up to 20k per month we will be looking very good.
Great info. I new nothing of this. Hope this helps a lot
Hope so!
Wow great work.
Is Xpeng report showing that they are selling these credits?
Marcel what is your opinion on Nio making Firefly non swappable. I think this could be a good response to the competition and could improve the bottom line.
It also makes sense for overseas markets, EU would probably impose a minimal price cap on Chinese EVs, so super cheap Firefly is not an option.
I hope the Nio management could consider this option.
from the images you can clearly see that the firefly car has a high wheelbase, I presume higher than 2.9 metres, despite the car being small in size, I believe around 4.2/4.3 metres, so it could be able to use the Onvo baas stations
@@raffaelerossi6173 the problem its the width
The small swap stations are for the partner brands as well. Even if firefly starts out with a few swap stations and builds from there, then it's evs are still upgradable, franchise and petrol companies can pay for some of them.
I think traditional automakers don’t need to buy these from NIO anymore because they are not selling that much vehicles.
Based on the other sales trend, it certainly seems to be the case of NIO not selling it yet and piling them up. Hope we see it in the report soon sending the other sales to over $600 million +
😂😂
Just another speculation: May be these regulatory credits are not sold on a regular basis but handed over towards the Hefei local government as part of an agreed compensation for the bail out in 2019?
No
The graph makes it clear they are selling the regulatory credits as they go along. I assume the big spike it when they sold credits they had been hoarding before. Come on man
I only see "other sales" going up in sync with the cumulative fleet, as it should since more people are buying "other services". What I don't see anymore - since a long time, are those spikes by credit sales, like in the past.
How about not paying suppliers over 295 days? Is this practice normal in China?
Good for NIO, more working capital during the time where the money is still with them. If the supplier accept those terms, its fine ...
Im disappointed with NIO. China is garbage. The company seems to make great cars . I think the company should move .
lol . Are you a joke ?
Why so many hates on a country?!? I was there many months and met many great people. Chat GTP is also propaganda machine.
It's normal that China is not doing well, the US government attacks them with tariffs, sanctions and bans in the technology sector and short attacks by investment institutions and they have a real estate crisis that they are overcoming over time. China will be a winning country in the future, whether the US government wants it or not.
@@luckarlracism is the underlying issue.