WOMD 102 l Current Watch Market Analysis: Patek, Rolex, AP, Richard Mille & More
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- Опубликовано: 7 сен 2024
- New Grey Market Episode: "My Plan to CRUSH $130 Million in Sales in 2024"
• How I'm Going to Sell ... -~-
While the coronavirus keeps most of us indoors, business hasn't stopped. Has the pandemic changed the state of the watch market? Sure but not necessarily in the way you think. In Episode 102 of What’s On My Desk (WOMD), Adrian and I are going to give you guys an updated market analysis and discuss how and why this is a buyer's market.
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While everyone is scared shitless, we're busy buying stock that's now available at prices it never has been before. So, we're not panicking but you can go ahead, if you chose to. ;) This is a market correction.
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To all you doom and gloomers out there give me a break!. So if this is the end of the world or the year you're spending it watching a watch video. Get a life. Be positive, dream on your next watch, get creative and watch your hands!
YES, THANK YOU! Finally someone who is trying to keep it positive! :) I appreciate you! 🤗
sure we are positive but REALITY often hurts.
Tyrr good thanks to the ytytttttt toyttttttttttttttttyytyy awesome morningttyttttrt try t uy Tyler tytttttttyttttttype tytdd Ted tytttttttyt
Yeah ty
Strongly disagree with you guys. You guys reminded me of the scene in the movie titanic where the band kept playing music to keep the passengers calm. The titanic represents the watch market you guys are sounding like the band right now.
lol i could not have said it better
I wonder too. Rolex watches used to keep their value thanks to Rolex always raising prices every few years or sometimes yearly. So used watches were pulled a bit up, but still below or at retail mostly. Except the Daytona. But 10 years ago, Rolex were mostly available right away in stock at the AD....why wouldn’t they return to that? Maybe that’s a possibility too....if demand dies down, this could happen. Rolex will still be ok. Grey market too, just insane profits for private flippers will be gone.
They are clueless. Businesses just dont go back to normal. We could have 20% unemployment. Depression numbers. The Chinese, the flippers, the new rich, youtubers, and the recent milenial watch collector propped the watch business up since about 2016. Its gonna disappear real soon. In 2016 I could buy any SS Rolex I wanted (except daytona) at a discount. And used models like a Explorer II 5 digit cost me $4,000. About half retail. The pain is coming.
@@koolpep milenials have short memories. I grew up in the 1980s. From 1985 to 2016 you could get any stainless steel sports model in the case at a 10-15 % discount. Except Daytona. Fact. Used models traded 1/2 the retail or lower. Fact. The bubble started in late 2016. Fact. My buddy bought a sub in summer 2016 with a 10% discount. Fact. Milenials experience with Rolex is based on the last 4 years. Fact. Milenials and RUclipsr are dumb. Don't think like a milenial RUclipsr.
@@jimmyv.495 Exactly, same as I remember it. You bought a Rolex with a discount and you more or less retained that value and yes, they were readily available most of the time.
10million unemployed in the US because of Corona. "this will blow over"
This will not blow over for years
A huge percentage of them are temporarily unemployed until this blows over.
Rona!,
@Geoff Gyro 1 year minimum
Not to be judgemental and rude. But people that are unemployed right now are either teachers, or public workers. Yes they are consumers and yes they can buy big ticket items like expensive items, but it is not likely. For example, how many of these time pieces do you own? Are you laid off work right now? Whats your income? Can you even afford one of these pieces? I am not wealthy by any means but this info is for people who can actually afford these watches.
You guys are totally focused on watches and you are not paying attention to the global economy and the impact of this pandemic. Many businesses will fail, many assets have lost significant value because of the uncertainty, unemployment, devastating effects in tourism etc. To say this is just a "virus" and not a recession is an ignorant statement.
The best watch youtuber you are Sir. I wish I had your optimism. 2008 was a banking crisis, today it is a people crisis, a social crisis. It will take more than just few weeks to bring the economy to pre Corona situation.
Great show, a live show selling watch? Why not. It is worth the try.
Thanks Roman and Adrian for sharing.
I believe that this is going to be worth than 2008. We just have been only a few months through this and you can see how much the markets are affected . I can guaranty that the watch market is going to crash badly. But not only the watch market also all the markets.Watch and see! The Buyers time just begun! Anyway I love your videos!
I wish they are right, but from my end it's pretty epic and this is when people still have money in their pocket from unemployment and sba loans.
well this comment didnt age well lol
Guys I would request everyone to show this man some respect ... he has made it to this level after seeing a financial crisis in 08 ... he is nice enough to tell it like it is ... even if we disagree with him ... we shouldn’t hate on him for being optimistic or trying to get sales (that is his business) ... respect the man for who he is ... which is honest and blunt with us all ... he tells it the way he sees it ... and we should thank him for this
Please correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't you entirely selling something for more than you buy it for? Be it 5%, 10% or the retail standard of c30% How are you different from the flippers? It's all business surely?
Roman. Really enjoyed your take on the current state of the market. You’re absolutely right to be buying when ‘others are fearful’. However, you will be proved wrong if you believe things will recover quickly. I’m in Europe (UK) and we are all in lock down. No one goes out and our economies are going to really struggle. Wait until you’re forced to close your business and you’ll realise it will 12 months before things return to the new normal. But keep the videos coming as we need something to pass the time!
There won't be a normal until a vaccine is available.
16:55 this is not a global recession? hmmm sure...
What do you expect him to say??
If he said that the market is gonna go down further and it virus wont go away for a long time, then who is gonna buy watch from him? Everyone keeps waiting for price to drop further and how he make money?
So ya, he needs money to survive, he needs to lie, give him a break
I'm ready to buy and will be keeping an eye on on the market. All my tenants are are pensioners, health workers and others are government employees. The rents are still coming so the money is there. People haven't woken up to the fact that we are in deep sh*t and it will get worse before it gets any better. In a few months it's going to get bat sh*t crazy. No pun intended!
Hey roman and adrian thanks for the video! I’m a pilot and from an aviation perspective it will take a little time before our works starts running again cause even if a country like china or the states starts to lift the travel bans, the routes will still be closed for different countries depending on their respective situations. This might dismay some of your potential buyers from getting something from across the world when theres no assurance when they’ll get the product to their country. Another point I’d like to say we dont know what the relationships between countries will be after all of this e.i. Today japan just announced its willing to pay the Japanese companies operating in China to move their businesses away from China ($2billion by the government). What happens if the U.S does the same. Its a different world we are all entering in the next few months everyone stay safe.
You point out that the Rolex hype started among dealers (grey market), others picked up and they started trading among each other. Also new people coming in the industry (grey market) to get a piece from the pie. Haven't we arrived at a situation where demand among dealers is high but not so much among consumers due to the prices? Meaning that Dealers are still happily shuffling the pieces among each other adding margins left and right but these pieces do not actually end up at the consumer. If this is the case then aren't we literally in a bubble?
Love the video!
I have lived through the 1989 earthquake (SF). 1990's recession. Dot com boom & bust. 2008 recession. This is the first time in maybe 25 years that my tenets cannot pay the rent. May not be able to pay rent for several months. Think about that. This is very different. People are losing there jobs here in SF Bay Area. More layoffs coming in May, including local municipalities.
Never say never. Never say impossible.
Stay safe and best of luck.
Mark S I was in Petaluma CA when the 1989 earthquake hit. It was crazy.
agree, my tenants also can't pay rent. this is likely a deeper and longer recession than most people anticipate
All the tenants not paying rent and a government ‘relief’ on rent will have a domino effect on the housing market and just create another crisis on top of the ongoing one. On the other hand, prepare for a shopping spree when that happens
At close to 17 million US unemployment claims in the past few weeks, who in their right mind would be buying this stuff. What’s worst is people are clogging the system as aren’t getting their money.
agree. not only usa...the world...jobless
I don’t think (or hope) people who live from paycheck to paycheck are in the market for luxury watches in the first place.
@@nda6228 You're right, but those aren't the only people impacted. A lot of middle class people who would consider a 5-10K milestone watch (say, a Rolex for simplicity's sake) now won't. The RM customers likely won't change, though. ^^
A market in this stuff allows Roman to keep his staff employed.
Andromahlius I agree with you to a certain extent but I reckon even if those people you’re talking about got the Rolex off their bucket list there would be another 100 who would happily take their place and put the money up
I would't pay over retail to begin with, hopefully it will be easier to get pieces that actual watch people want to buy, not fly by night flippers. For people like Roman, always business wether the prices are over or under list, all the same as long as you can get through the adjustment.
I disagree and this is not just a virus alone. It’s a combined various things and all shares real estate watches will plummet as ppl need to cash out for necessities
Sales across the board and a good deal will be 40-60% correction is fair
@@dkking83123 couldn't agree with you more, you shouldn't buy any luxury item for at least a month or two.
In the words of Karen Carpenter..... "It's only just begun"
Wow... So you're saying that Rolex Authorized Dealers have been selling watches to Grey Market sellers for Over List price and that's what has caused shortages to the Collector customers ? Gotcha !
TZOID08 Yeah thought the same thing. that’s bombshell at 7:15.
Wasn't this common knowledge?!
Only the truly rare and exceptional will survive this global event in terms of cars, art and watches. The rest are going to take a major dump and people are going to have their fingers burnt badly.
All those who jumped into the game in the last few years out of pure greed will panic and dump everything they have onto the market in the next few months.
This will be the biggest market reset in recent history made worse by economies printing monopoly money by the day out of desperation.
SR absolutely correct 👍👍. Stay safe !
And I can’t wait! A buyers market:)
auxmike I agree but where will we find the lowest rock bottom prices on an AP or Hublot? Chrono 24?
How long would you wait and who would you buy from?
Buy from luxury bazaar,
You're welcome
Roman that's a Brilliant idea giving your viewers access to some "early bird specials" do it!!!
I hope you’re right. I fear you’re wrong.
I just watched a clip by 'the economist' and they were saying that for the first time ever we have no supply and no demand...on top of terrible working capital shortages. Timing wise I think you are being a bit optimistic, but it will rebound at some point. I do like the live show idea, but won't be buying at the moment.
What is that dude wearing? Looks like a batman costume.
John Wayne 🤣🤣🤣
Yes I Am! It’s a Nike Vest. Go pick it up @ footlocker.com :)
@@adriantaskin Respect, Adrian.
I loved this episode guys! Felt like a podcast while I was retouching photos :) Stay safe and keep your heads high!
The Opus 5 and the Lange Tourbillon are a dream!
You guys seriously have to sit further apart from each other. You not taking this virus seriously. I am in the UK and our brave key workers are dying (young and old, this virus does not discriminate) trying to save people and keeping us safe! Keep safe guys!
Definitely a buyers market. I bought a new piece two weeks ago and am eyeing up another one. We shouldn't use the term 'market correction', it implies that it was was wrong. We should use 'market cycle' instead. As we all know, all markets go up and down as affected by real world situations. Thanks guys, great video as always.
THEY sound like the orchestra on the Titanic, still playing while it SANK!
After all, when the apocalypse comes you can't eat a Rolex or wipe your ass with an AP.
people will dump their AP for TP
After 2 days, try telling the time on an iphone when the apocalypse comes ;-)
I was soooooo waiting for this video! Love the videos Roman!
Keep up the great work and stay safe!
I think you guys should take a look around. This is much worse than 08 much much worse. The full effect have not hit us yes. So yes the housing marked and everything will take a major hit and so will you guys. I hope for the best for you all. But stop telling less informed people to keep buying this stuff just to get rid of your inventory. If you had any business sense you would sell sell sell and sit on a pile of money ready when the marked turned. And i think thats what you are doing. And now you are trying to sell the leftovers to your followers. good luck
Foilmagnet That phone call about the incoming Rolex shipment felt staged to me.
I think direct to consumer online is a future. I've been selling online for a 5 years now, and been thinking of is next
Aloha Guy,
I hope you are well and safe.
I can only speak on Rolex because have I’m a collector and a stock/economy investors.
I believe the Rolex market will come down to pre-2016 levels which in context, is 80 to 90% of retail after using the watch for over a year or so. Is fantastic!!! If you look at the history, Rolex 100 years plus. Rolex has never sold watches at MSRP and the very next moment got a high premium on the Gray market. You have to understand that the last three years has been an economic perfect storm. Everyone and everything went up. Generally speaking.
Now this could be the black swan moment.
Current state, the economy was already slowing and the watch market slowly declining. Now with a combination of unemployment in the last three weeks, 17 million people filed in the US alone. Who knows globally. It’s going to take one to two years of employment before people start buying again. I’ll speak for myself, I was going to buy three pieces however now I cannot justify $45,000. Maybe only buy one or none. I know many people are faced with that reality.
People try to compare the stock market with the watch market. but it only goes one way down with material things. If the stock market goes down really badly, people lose their jobs and material things go down. Especially luxury items. When the stock market comes back, by that time everybody starts work again. Nobody’s buying a watch in their first month of employment. I believe the watch market with never recover to those heights but nothing wrong with pre 2016 watch prices. That was a fair market for both dealers and consumers.
Just saying, thank you and have a wonderful weekend
since i believe that we ll have negative gdp for a few years world wide, i think this will be much worth than 08, but i hope u r right and i m wrong
Wolfgang Koellerer They know it’s worse. This is a video made to move product. They’re panicking.
This is a time like no other. What if Asia dumps their toys on the market? That's a lot of toys and I would think a high percentage would be Rolex.
The Swiss made a remarkable recovery from the quartz crises. The pandemic will likely affect luxury goods like no other.
Currently, the risk is getting moved around, it's gotta get managed properly. Side note, good chance debt to GDP will double for most countries and tripling for a handful of others * hope i'm wrong on this side note. Fasten your belts, reckless days are over.
“Never” affected never this or that is dangerous assumption
Worst words ever: this time it’s different.
Any good deals at minus 40-60% secondary market prices high, let us know. Otherwise wont bat an eye.
Note that am still willing to pay above retail for popular models, but they have to be down 40-60% from their recent highs.
Wow great video as usual Roman . Love the positivity about the evolution of this crisis on your industry and being positive is the DNA of a successful business owner 👍 However I’m not sharing that optimism people buying watches are just following the buying project they had before the crisis mentality are beginning to change and doesn’t matter how rich or passionate about watches we are we’ll surely be impacted by increase in Taxes (specially in EU ) and shares values and dividends for investors. Here in Europe restructure plans are coming in all sorts of industries this crisis is real and terrible imo . I wish you the best and hope I’ll still be able to pick up some watch at good price soon
A buyers market? Give me a break bro. A buyers market is when the use watches start selling under retail value as long the watches still 3k or more over retail value it’s still a sellers market, a simply economic. I’ll advise people to wait and see how all this develops, most of the people that bought at a hype have lost their jobs and had nice jobs , but lived paycheck to paycheck, now they have to pay rent and have no jobs they will dump the watches on the market, the AD that hide the watches to make more money on the gray market have to pay rent and employees and have no gray market buyers , so I bet than in a few months you’ll be able to walk into an AD and see SS Rolex inside, used and Brand new .
Sorry Roman you are wrong on this one
I can’t help but feel your opinion on market is biased because you’re sitting on a lot of inventory of luxury items. Luxury items are always first to suffer in economic downturn. I know You are doing your part to calm people in a sudden economic stop.
I'm scared, and i aint buying shit till this blows over, and i don't see that happening anytime soon. See you next year hopefully. ugh
A RUclips live of you giving Adrian a fade would be hilarious! Roman the Barber!
I like the live RUclips idea - but you were talking about consumer sentiment - and while I've been buying up to about two weeks ago, I'm holding off now, for one simple reason - I want to make sure I'm still healthy and not sick for next month or so. (For me, unlike many others, it's not a cash flow issue since I'm working and being fully paid.) Then, if I'm still alive, I'll probably celebrate by buying watches!
davidc5191 Smart man. Stay safe!
@@eyeheartsushi2212 And it's really hard stopping my finger from pushing the "Buy" button, especially as I see watches I'm following being sold!
davidc5191 Well if it’s a watch that is hard to find, you just might have to push that BUY button.
Videos with Adrian are the best! This bantering and forth is great, not to mention the awesome pieces. Thanks for offering a break from the mess going on around us, and stay safe out there
YES.
I like the RUclips idea. I know you would include some history and trivia too. Win Win.
Stay healthy.
you are most likely right that the market will be purged to let only the dealers who make their profits from the margins on sales and that the upper end of the market will always be there (because the ultra-wealthy will still have lot of disposable income). but you might be misled to think that it is a temporary difficulty. The recession will be deep and hit economies worldwide.
U are happy with the correction ? How about the clients u sold to at the peak market ?
It is clear the current strategy of shutting down large parts of society is not sustainable in the long-term. The social and economic damage would be catastrophic.
What countries need is an "exit strategy" - a way of lifting the restrictions and getting back to normal.
But the coronavirus is not going to disappear.
If you lift the restrictions that are holding the virus back, then cases will inevitably soar.
You guys are sitting 2 close. Need to self distance, stay stay safe guys love your content
Looking at how rough he handles his watches I wouldn't buy anything from him
I feel sorry for the people who are in a tough situation, but think the many people that are into collecting high-end luxury watches are still well-off even in the pandemic situation. Well they can normally spend 40k++ usd easily on these expensive watches, that means are well established and many still gladly spend more money when the watch market prices become lower. In Asia markets, many unique models surely took a hit, but all the hot ss models can still be sold easily... Btw, keep up the great work, Roman.
If there's panic, panic first. Other than that, buy when blood runs through the streets.
The Musical chairs of Greed has been fueled by False rumour and now the Music has stopped and wont restart for the foreseeable future...
I do agree that guys like you shouldnt panic, but what I think you guys got wrong is timing..this is not the peak(economy wise).. it is just a beginning, the peak will probably be in few months from now, dont take this corona situation too lightly
name changes They know real well what’s going on. They’re just misleading people because they have to move product.
Eye Heart Sushi possible
I don’t have a relationship with an AD and the flippers closed me out of Rolex. I wasn’t going to pay a premium over retail and most models weren’t even available to me. The Rolex dealer by me, pre pandemic had diamond encrusted watches that were horrible.
What would happen if Rolex started selling online?
Wow!
In Europe quite a few RDs do already. Also preowned watches !!
watching this a year later, reading all the comments suggesting you guys are full of sh*t, now look at the state of the industry. You were on the money! Thing no one understands is the pandemic simply widened the wealth gap, and without travel and all the life style luxuries that come with it, people with money turned to something else to spend on ... watches. I love this channel, because your analysis is usually pretty accurate.
Love the idea of the "LuxB RUclips marketplace."
Well done Roman, great show and first to give a real market situation.
Greed and Fear , just normal market emotion.
I think you are a bit optimistic on severity of decline
Deals and profits in normal business are not happening .
I was thinking about a platinum watch , now need to keep staff salaries going.
Watch on a serious back burner.
Keep trading and best of luck.
Great advice recently bought a 116613 lb was bit concerned but now happy to hold 🇮🇪👍
Week : 51 commit to positive thinking .
I will admit to my mind for mental consumption only thous idea and thought that heal , bless , inspire and strengthen me .
Great videos as always. Love those AP chronographs! are the prices on the AP chronograph with silver dial u showed 21k with tax or without? because on chrono24 the prices start from 23-24k and up. Hopefully u can answer my question. 👍
Adrian "we'll see how that fade works out" 😂
Success makes everyone delusional and this video is perfect proof. At least you have other investments to keep you afloat as there is a good chance Luxury Bazaar will file for bankruptcy within the next year.
I appreciate these videos, I am going to be hopefully starting my website for my entry into the watch game next year. This is what I want to do for the rest of my life, I’m 27 and I just learned this year what I really want to do for the rest of my life, and it’s Luxury goods, but specially watches. I love timepieces and find them true works of art. I hope to meet you soon Roman! Realistically maybe within 2 years I’ll be a able to meet you threw a show or on the street. Again thank you for these videos brotha!
This is an epoch defining moment. Nothing will be the same. Why?
- millions thrown out of work overnight, and their jobs will not come back in a hurry because they depend on being able to be closer to other people than two metres
- gig economy workers stamped flat and out of the economy for the next year - back home to mum and dad with no money
- things are already so tough that our UK luxury watch outlet (Watches of Switzerland) is 'pre-selling' popular new Rolexes to punters on the promise that 'you can come get it when the lockdown is over'. Errr, could you post it? No, apparently not. And it sounds like they'll only take card payment through third party payment sites that seem to invalidate your credit card protection rights. You might think that's 'just in case' they go bust in the meantime, obviously there's no way to know. Paul Thorpe might not smell a rat (love those tatts Paul, you seem to have more every time I see you), perhaps he's right in that careful statement. Whatever, I'm on the list for a Batgirl, for me, not to flip, really like that piece, but if they were to call me today with those terms I'd have to say no thank you. Anyway, where was I...? Oh yes...
- a US healthcare system that could have been designed to make this maximum impact on your population and economy (I'm in the UK) - it's a horrific consequence of the way you guys have systemically locked the poorest away from healthcare (and no, our NHS ain't perfect, but it's fighting this virus way better than a system that demands $2,000 to investigate a head ache (which happened to me, in South Carolina in 2010, been there, done that))
- a virus that couldn't have been engineered much better to f*** up economies (not saying it was, despite the Wuhan hysteria, although I do believe the Chinese took active steps to export it, closing the province to internal movement but allowing flight from the city out to other countries - living up to that Chinese aphorism about crisis/opportunity)
- the US empire (empire as in global $$$ hegemony and the safeguarding of the seas for global trade that the US took over from us post WW2 - thank god, we were shagged out and on our last legs) is now facing an existential survival moment - literally your version of the 1956 Suez Crisis (look it up, and what the US did to properly take global power from the UK, now the Chinese want to do the same to you)
- very likely a full on and no holds barred trade war with China (you guys are printing trillions to prop up economies around the world, becoming the world's central banker, and no way that doesn't come with conditions - but how does China fight back?), a trade war to dwarf what's come before and in an election year with a desperate incumbent because it's all about the economy, stupid (Bill was right, and the Donald knows it)
- and probably fuelled by accusations of a) the Chinese exporting the virus after covering it up and b) the CCCP's policy of Uighur genocide (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_re-education_camps#External_links) which will come to light properly in the next few months although the policy of detention without trial, forced re-marriage (rape) and forced organ donation (murder) is already very well known at national government level and has of course been ignored, just as in with the Nazi genocide of the Jews was until it couldn't be ignored (mainly because the Chinese own most of our 'retired' politicians as powerful lobbyists)
- and, worst of all (yeah, I know I'm going on, but it's complex, right?), the following combination of circumstances:
1. A crisis crash (obvs, right?)
2 A cyclical crash that we've been holding off with money printing since 2008
3. A systemic crash because we've been holding it off with money printing since 2008 after brewing that problem over the previous 20 years through ever increased profit from debt
History never repeats, but it does a lot of rhyming. Look at the years 1929 to 1932. Depression - which is what we face now, not just the recession you hope will be averted in a couple of weeks from now. There were five (count 'em) optimistic bull markets in the course of one long bear one way bear elevator to hell in those three years, and if you bought into any one of those 'dead cat down the stairs' bounces you got f***ed. If you're buying stocks that depend on people freely moving around and associating, that's a brave move sir, and I doff my cap while running in the other direction. I ain't buying anything that depends on the old way of life. I'm buying gold miners, VR companies (home entertainment, right?), hydrogen power for the new transport economy ('cause it sure as hell ain't batteries alone), and I have a lot of gold put away against bank crashes.
And banks. Yeah, let's talk about banks ba-by. Banking rules say that government debt is a free ride on the balance sheet. Banks don't have to hold assets to counteract that debt (unlike every other debt). How convenient! Governments do that so that banks will buy their bonds and keep them funded to expand the state. What happens when governments decide that they don't need to borrow any more, but just turn on the money printing taps to the max - wait, they already did, it literally happened yesterday in the UK! - and say 'we print whatever it takes to avoid the abyss'? What happens when the government decides that there's going to have to be a debt jubilee ('debt 'forgiveness') for everyone? No more mortgage! Yay! No more car loan! Woohoo! The likely outcome is a) strong inflation of the type we last saw in my country 50 years ago and quite possibly b) banking defaults because that forgiveness will really be aimed at wiping out previous government debts and wiping the slate clean for governments. Debt held in huge amounts by the banks! And when your bank fails because of this 'necessity', you think there'll be a bail-out?? Nah. Get ready to hear the words 'bail-in'. Which means that if you have money in the bank, the bank uses it to re-capitalise and you get bank shares. Trust me, once you put money in the bank, it (legally) ain't your money. It belongs to the bank and they give it back when you want it *if they have it*. You'll keep enough to live on, but the hard earned savings you were storing up? Will be gone. Look up the Cyprus bank crash of 2010 and see what happened. And trust me, the ability to perform a bail in is already on your statute book. I know it's on ours, because I looked it up on the UK government website. There in black and white.
OK. *Stops with the Archie Luxury voice * (f*** I don't like that guy). I don't want to come across too Cassandra. Of course a new normal will emerge from the ashes of the next two years. And there'll be strong money to be made on the other side. Expensive timepieces might be 'a thing' that continues (I hope so, I love 'em). But there's a deep pit of cold lumpy dog shit to wade through first. The analogy I like the most is that the last 20 years have been like the long 'Edwardian summer' of 1900 - 1914 (an idyllic time, it seemed) before the hell of WW1, followed by the Spanish influenza, ironically). They were great while they lasted, but they were fuelled by funny money and a huge global banking con trick. Get ready for helicopter money, crushing inflation and a nasty long depression that'll see large swathes of the population living on state handouts (which will have to be increased because they need to be enough to live on, not just a subsistence while you go get the next job). When times are tough most people just stop spending. F***, I'd love to buy that Royal Oak I been coveting for the last few years. Why didn't I shell out for it last year when I had good money coming in? I was salting it away in preparation for the seven hard years (seven fat years, seven hard years, right, it's a Joseph thing) I saw coming. And now I'm guessing I could buy it for two thirds the price if I haggled hard enough. But would I get a wedge out of the safe to do so? Nup. I'm going to need that money just to live/just in case.
Enough. You'll probably disagree. Most successful entrepreneurs succeed not from innate genius (or just being smart enough to see the opportunity) but because they take the risks the rest of us shy away from. Perhaps your risk taking will pay dividends, and in that case I really will doff my cap here in the tinfoil hatted corner of my bunker :-).
Other opinions are of course available. Mainly from the people whose net worth depends on us all keep on drinking the kool-aid right up to the moment they put us in the box and waltz off with our money. I recommend the films Margin Call and The Big Short (and more so the book Fly Boys) to illustrate the levels of venality and downright mendacity that's in play among the people who make this shit up and sell it to 'us'. Buyer beware.
Good luck all.
Anthony Riches Your comment was certainly educational. Thank you.
I want to thank Roman for all the work you guys do. I think around 2010 dad told me hey check out LuxuryBazar and a few years later he bought a Florida Panerai (still never worn it lol ) I think you guys were first who opened the doors for digital watches retailing back before anyone else did and thank you for doing a great job.
I think watches with price and condition would be great. A real problem with other sites is that they don’t mention condition or service history. Thanks Roman .
Fellas! your Honesty is priceless! the Knowledge you guys share is Amazing. Appreciate your time doing these stuff for your viewers.!!!
I’m going to hang tight. Market won’t bottom out until Covid peaks and businesses start to open. Even at that point it’ll take months for values to level out.
I do dispute that this is worse than the 2008 crash. That affected banks and mortgages. The economy slumped because of fear on spending. This has shut down all businesses. So people who aren’t working for months wont have the liquid income to purchase toys.
So many good deals! Just picked up a Navitimer Olumpus Quantième calendar and moon phase for 3600usd with full service like new..!
Would like to see a sales chart by month 1/2020 through 7/2020 vs past 3 years rolling monthly.
Had to comment again.. datograph perpetual tourbillon for under 200 is insane. Good pickup, and nicest piece on your desk imo
saw u on Michael´s channel and it was so informative. I´m 18 and I got interested in watches like 8 months ago. My dream watch is the Audemar Piguet Skeleton. I can't afford it yet but hopefully, that will change in the future. U got a new viewer with these informative videos. U really know much about watches since u have 17 Years of experience (if I'm not incorrect). Much love from Austria
Busted up, "I know how to do a fade" love it!
PLEASE EVERYBODY PANIC AND SELL EVERYTHING. I'm totally not shopping for a new watch btw. *cough*
Andromahlius 😂😂😂
Every dealer-produced video is the same. Dealer: “Now is a great time to buy.” Comment section: “No, man, it’s gonna drop more.”
Roman, and other dealers like him will continue to maintain and sustain in the long run. Small time flippers, and other dealers that can't afford to sit on inventory, are going to suffer serious cash flow problems, and get murdered in the coming months when they go into full panic dump mode. The one good thing that might happen because of all this is that flippers won't be sucking up all the hot watches from the ADs anymore, especially after having their collective asses handed to them during this crisis. These flippers serve no other purpose than jacking up prices for the end consumer into the stratosphere. ADs need to get back to taking care of their retail clients who actually wear the merchandise that they purchase. My 2 cents...
You are spot on.
I could watch you two all day . I just got called out for my fake AP on your Facebook page lol I paid 500 for it . I just can’t afford 50,000 or 45,000 . My new car cost that much . Anyways I’ll get there one day . Roman that gold AP is beautiful man .
I really enjoyed this video. I believe that we will bounce back quickly; we just won't bounce back to quite as high as we were before. That part will take time. I'd love to see you display some models that are for sale at the time of the video. Thanks for staying positive.
Who are you kidding Roman, this crash is going to be much worser than 2008
I have a man dilemma. I am torn between 2 watches. AP offshore 26470 (Elephant) vs AP. 15710 Diver(bleue). FYI Same price. Love them both, but want to keep it longer and don’t lose to much money
In my experience younger people are starting to notice that a Rolex will get you attention on the street, at school, in the club and on IG. I see people wearing a Rolex but I know they don’t have decent furniture at home. Where a nice watch was something you bought when u already went on holidays to nice places, when u already drive a nice car, when u already have a decent set of nice sneakers and everything else. Than you bought a nice watch because u can afford it. These days people think of retaining value or making some money first because they see other people doing it too. So a lot of people put a good amount of there savings in a watch but would cry if the market would take a nosedive. There are so many nice watches that as a watch enthusiast are definitely worth the money. Too bad there are a lot of people than only know Rolex, Patek’s and everything else that’s hot now. That for me indicates that a lot of people can’t actually afford an expensive watch...
Watches Sneakers I agree with you. I once read someone comment that you shouldn’t buy a Rolex if you can’t afford to buy 4 of them. He kind of had a point.
Slightly off topic but does anyone know what type/ brand of clear plastic box is used to hold that Ressence watch @ 33:00?
You don't ask your barber if you need a haircut. I hope for the best for your business but I think covid 19 going to have a bigger impact than you think. I am sure you will be able to pick some great watches at good prices in a few months. Hope I am wrong. Thanks for the positivity it refreshing to hear right now.
Jeffrey Johnson Tim Mosso agreed with a commenter on one of his videos that the real deals will be 2 or 3 months after businesses reopen so you’re probably right.
The RUclips show is a great idea ... maybe do it when the market is hot and not now
Love this episode! I can watch this twice
Bro you guys sound like your trying to fool yourself, and your hateing on the new guys doing big deals! Come on man the new guys will not get weeded out don’t hate it looks bad to say people are “suffering” clearly your suffering saying someone else is suffering I’m not hateing I’m just being real
Hi Roman and Adrian
It was a pleasure as always seeing the video and the in depth and honest content that you guys put up.
I loved your idea for having the live you tube channel for selling (but frankly it doesn’t even need to be a live feed !) I feel live videos have certain limitations and obviously they can’t have Ian’s inputs in post shoot editing etc ! The concept of having your selling channel or video is fantastic so pls go ahead with that and I wish you guys loads of success 😊🤞🏻
Be safe guys ! Warm regards as always Prashant S
Another great video. Total honesty as always. I also really liked that it was longer than usual, as everything was explained in detail. 👌
The title of this video should be "Two COVIDiots in Denial"
What should you do if you're in their position? You would say the same
Interesting to rewatch this after a year. Much has changed and yet some things the same.
Nice to see you're still uploading, and genuinely hope you, family and all your work colleagues are keeping well.
Your candor is refreshing! Wonderfully, you are an optimist! Thank you so much for sharing your perspective!
Yes a QVC episode live would be great, 10k, 5k , 2500k would be AWSOME! Maybe a first responder discount ,
Wait for Christmas everything will be 50 pc cheaper! This isn't going to be a Quick fix I am afraid!
Going back to look at the analysis of the past few months and I'm enjoying this content... not done watching the video yet (2nd time) but this should be republished in some sort of... "lets take a look at what was said 4 months in" segment but in long form again. It may help us all... always look forward to just the facts from a market stand point.
The music has stopped and there is a lot of folks out there without a chair!
I commented at the start of February on mainly exotic car channels about luxury watches and cars and how they'll be affected by the pandemic! I stated back then initially you'd see a price drop in these items, Rolex, Ferrari etc etc because of people getting scared at the start before things get bad! ✓ that happened! Now we're in it the market has lowered and now you have the people who didn't flog their watches, cars,handbags etc who are sh"tting themselves because they have lost jobs, are at risk of losing houses, can't pay mortgages and can't keep their business afloat! Thus they are beginning to flog and offload said items to literally put food on the table and keep a roof over their heads! So the market will keep dropping the more people offload these luxury items for whatever cash price they are offered!! Now when we start coming out of this and the mortgage, business rate holidays etc finish you'll have a flood a tsunami of people flogging high end watches,cars,hand bags etc to get every scrap of money they can to pay said mortgages, business rates to save both!! To make matters even worse you have the flippers who bought a load of watches on finance thinking there going to make £5k per watch and now know they're in for a big lose on each watch, they will sell up at a big lose, grey market dealers who hold onto loads of stock will have the same problem... It all =significant big value reduction! Any watch dealer who tells you otherwise, remember they have an agenda, and vested interest to try and make out that isn't going to happen because it affects their business!! Remember that!!! I forsee and forecast Rolex Daytonas standard steel, black,white face being available for £10-12k, GMT master batman,batgirl going for around £8k-£9k, Hulks about the same and submariners going for around £7k-£8k! As for patek, AP etc I expect to see drops of about £20k because the market is going to literally be swimming with all of them! I've already seen a batman for sale at £10,500!!!!!