Using Numbers To Determine 2023 NBA MVP
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- Опубликовано: 15 ноя 2022
- I hired a scientist to develop an insanely smart mathematical program to determine the 2023 NBA MVP.
How does it work?
Who’s the MVP?
How much am I going to bet at the casino?
Reach Our "Data Scientist" on Instagram:
@zakberliner1
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Hey everyone, I’m Zak! I did the modeling and math work for this video, so let me know if you have any questions or clarifications about our analysis.
Personally having looked at the past 40 years, only VORP, BPM, WS/48 and to a lesser degree PER matter.
Being a top 4 seed is all that is needed in this advanced statistics era that we're in given Jokic and Westbrooks wins.
Luka is the MVP so far but the biggest threats are Giannis and Curry. Tatum in with a shout to build his case for the next season.
@@JuicyCharon Definitely agree on the stats, with the addition of usage, as well as PER. But usage of course doesn’t tell the whole story with guys who are big APG guys like Jokic.
Yeah, aside from the occasional seasons where a guy has been just too good to comprehend, it seems that players have to be on the higher seeds to win. I was very surprised when my modeling wasn’t saying seed was a significant variable, but I think that’s because I had expanded to finalists, not just winners.
@Zak Berliner I don't seed matters that much. The thing that matters is WS/48 and its likely the person that has the highest in this statistic is likely to be winning alot of games that season. That's why seed is fine for a person who wins WS/48.
Usage doesn't matter unless you pair it with Pace.
In the video, he discusses the percentage of the time the model was correct over the past 13 seasons. That stat is very clearly in-sample, therefore meaningless to indicate the accuracy going forward, or just the accuracy, at all. It's trivial to develop a model that's 100% accurate in-sample. You could have done a k-fold or something to avoid that. Having said that, if you kept looking at the accuracy of the model to refine it, then all of that effectively becomes in-sample, as well.
@@joek5078 You make some great points. I agree that a k-fold would be really beneficial for validating the accuracy of the model, and should've been an analysis that I did. With that said, I do feel that in-sample validation has value in assessing the goodness of fit of the data used. It was another means of assessment I used, along with the Lack of Fit, RMSE, R Squared, and other values that were analyzed to check the models.
It feels like a Jxmyhighroller video, but it's confusing because of Kawhi. 😂
the program had to use Kawhi's 2020-2021 season stats because of his injury last year. In 2021 season he ranked extremely high in advanced statistics.
This is why i added the back half of the video to explain the discrepancy between RAW data and common NBA knowledge.
Shoutout to the page for all the work that went into this video. 👏🏾
thanks man!! I started the video in the PRE Season so it took nearly two months of scripting, editing and producing
@@HenryHoops your hard work is noticed.👏🏾
This is interesting but I actually have Steph as my dark horse for mvp. He’s still in his (late) prime and hes putting up impressive numbers coming off a finals mvp. The only thing currently holding him back is team success but as the season progresses his team will advance in the conference.
Another thing is that the media hates Steph cause he been the main highlight the past 8 years winning all them damn finals
I got money on steph
Kawhi didnt really dominate and I hate to say it, but Steph Curry looks like he has a realistic shot as he is efficient as ever, scores throughout the whole game including clutch time and has an insane impact on the warriors net rating. But its still way too early to predict something reliably as there is still so much time for players to rise or fall.
Just the fact that the simulation had Kawhi Leonard tells me how flawed of a program it is... Giannis has a great probability but Joel gets his MVP this year
good catch - remember the program is using previous season stats and last time Kawhi played he had some of the best advanced stats in the game.
I accounted for this later in the video but basically It doesn't know he's going to be on load management all year.
But be honest, if kawhi comes back healthy today he definitely still has a shot to win MVP.
@@HenryHoops he definitely could but I don't think we'll ever see Kawhi play even 65% of regular season again. As always, GREAT FUCKING VIDEO Henry👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
Yeah, I thought about not including him in the analysis, especially since no player has won the MVP after not playing the previous season. He’s just so good at his peak, and the Clips are pre-season title favorites, so I figured I might as well keep him! I used the data for his last “healthy” season, 2020-2021.
Luka will win and Embiid will finish 2nd again lol
@@ssor2816 probably 🤦♂️🤭
Bruh I’m so shocked how low and underrated this guy is hoping he’ll make it far
Fun fact : If one of Luka , Jokic, Giannis trio win MVP that would be 5 years in a row a non-american would win, just think about it how everybody always talked about NBA best league , USA players are the best etc etc and now we living in an era where Europeans dominate the league
embiid as well
@@jirehtan He is African not European :)
@@fullfradi95 Embiid working on his France citizenship
@@fullfradi95 he is not american tho..
Tatum in the corner
1000% Jokic is a run away MVP. of 2023
Nope
WHAT ABOUT TATUM?
The season isn’t even over yet. Some players will average less when the season is over then they are averaging now
coming back to check jus to be happy about the nuggets leading the western conference 🤣
Rose deserved his MVP stop the hate. Rose led his team to 62 wins mostly without his 2nd and 3rd best teammate while Lebron's stacked team only won 58. Lebron even admitted Rose deserved it
Rose absolutely deserved his MVP. We’re not trying to say that he didn’t. It’s just that, solely from an individual statistics point of view, LeBron had better stats. But that’s where the narrative (LeBron was the defending MVP, Rose massively improved), popularity (everyone outside Miami and the James family hated LeBron that year, Rose was a gritty hometown hero), and perception of the team (LeBron was on The super team of the moment, Rose led a group of scrappy guys to an even better record) come into play.
@@zakberliner7926 I think even without the narratives you said and just seeing how Rose carried an injury riddled Bulls team to 60 wins and the 1st seed is enough to push his case for MVP.
Rose was literally the definition of an MVP because without him and how injury riddled they were then I have no doubt that the Bulls would be top 3 in the lottery but even without Lebron, I think the Heat would still be in the playoffs.
He earned it
Rose is the worst MVP in nba history
@@BlueBolt Facts Rose is the 2nd worst MVP ever in my opinion behind Steve Nash. I mean he averaged 25 points a game with low FG%, low 3pt percentage, low steals, no blocks, wasn't known as a lock down defender in fact he was looked at as the opposite and as the weak link in Chicago's great defense. Rose's rebound numbers were average for his position and we're nothing amazing, his assists were average for his position and nothing amazing. He averaged what 7 assists? Draymond averages more assists then that, Pascal Siakam was averaging as many assists as that before his injury. 26-30 points, 9-12 assists, 6-9 rebounds and 2 steals + better shooting percentages would've been a lot more impressive. D.Rose along with Nash had one of the lowest PER's in MVP history. LeBron had better numbers then Rose in nearly every category. Everyone knows Rose winning that MVP was a freebie because the voters got tired of voting for LeBron year after year. But the reality is LeBron was the best player and the most valuable player and he deserved it that year. The MVP is kind of a joke since MJ should have way more then 5 MVP's, LeBron should have more then 4 MVP's, Kobe and Shaq sure as heck shouldn't have 1 MVP while someone like Steve Nash has 2. Its a joke award because the voters get it wrong so often. They vote based on recency bias/story/narrative way too often and out too much importance on teams regular season record now.
I know that in 2020 i was watching the olympics at my grandmas House .
I was shocked to See His country Beat France
Let's Go Giannis💪
Loved giannis
Looking at this one month ahead now , as of Dec 30th 2022 , I really think it's eaither joker , Luka or Greek and no one else....
Who’s here after kd and Kyrie got traded
I wanted more info on the MVPs you got wrong more recently like the Harden then Gianni's first would of loved to see who the program said should of won.
where is bucks on standing now?
Jokic has a lot of good players around him.
Arron Gordon, MPJ, Jamal Murray....
Name the 3 players the Bucks have the can match that for Gainnis
100%...plus Bruce Brown and KCP have been excellent additions. This vid is not aging very well for obvious reasons. Denver dominated the Clippers, Suns, The Griz and the Celtics. They are the best team in the NBA right now. We still have half the season so hopefully the Nuggs will keep their winning ways. As far as Jokic winning his 3rd MVP in a row, he's on track for a 3-peat mid-way through the 2023 campaign.
Jrue Holiday, Kris Middleton, Brook Lopez
U keep saying 20.9 points instead 29.9 points but ur doing great besides that
You’re missing bostons amazing run and Tatum winning MVP and brown finishing top 5😤😤😤😤
Hey I’m the lifetime fan of Boston Celtics but Tatum doesn’t deserve to be an MVP because last year Boston should win the Championship but he made sooooo much turned overs and he’s not a very good dribbler ok
To save you guys some time it’s Giannis that wins 😂
MV3
I agree with you 💯 %....Giannis all the way
No Joel , No Ja Morant no Zion?
The last 9 mvps have led the league in PER.
Embiid isnt even mentioned? you lost me
This didn’t age well, but still good video
So how Embiid won it?
No one notice that he said westbrick?
Overthinking it. Only a few advanced statistics matter. VORP, BPM, WS/48 and a lesser degree PER.
All the Mavs need is a top 4 seed in the west and Luka will be MVP as long as he keeps this production.
Also having the scoring title also helps
Seeds don't matter much nowadays, it's majorly about how the media projects some players. The league is so loose with officiating that so many players are averaging crazy numbers. If only they started calling travels and other basic fouls like they used to in 90s, we will see the player averages drop. But ofc, it helps the league when there are many stars and superstars.
i vote for kd
Eating your words about the nuggets now huh?
To save everybody’s time it is giannis
Sorry but I feel you kinda wasted this video with KD and Kawhi, I think Luka and Giannis because of their dominance, what Luka lacks on defense he's all around better on offense but the Bucks are one of the top teams. Luka needs more help though in a tough western conference, after that I have Curry over Tatum because the Celtics have a great team and would be a playoff team without him. Curry is also having arguably his best season and then I have Anthony Davis.
The players and coaches should be at least 60%, Media experts 30. Fans 10%. Computers can’t vote. They just do narrow analysis. Let’s allow a computer program to chose our presidents.
You seem to be very biased about Jokic
I hate the modern NBA. It's a different game. Almost a different sport. No defense and 3 point chucking. Over weight Euro players are Thriving. Scoring is way up. Defense and rules against traveling, carrying are not enforced. The Euro step is traveling in 85% of the cases. Joker would be a reserve player in the 90s. He probably wouldn't make the all star team.
Jokic doesn’t have 3 mvps😂
3 consecutive mvps? u mean 2
Curry?
Update:Joel embiid won mvp🎉
Embiid vs luka Giannis out
@Zak Berliner …Yes you missed something. Joel Embiid!
Not ja or steph
Jokic wins.
Jokić win
No nö luka bro what is mather with you bro 23 years old common...
8:00 MVP isn't the best player, stop the 🧢
This didn’t age well
The Nets record is garbage so KD isn't really in the mix with the top guys, he's like #5-6. So he's out of it. Kawhi? Come on why are we talking about Kawhi, he hasn't even been playing? He has no chance. Jokic? Jokic is out of the MVP race this year, he's only averaging like 20 points, his numbers are way down with the return of Murray and Porter. When Murray and Porter are healthy Jokic turns into a shell of himself because he stops being as aggressive, Murray and Porter start chucking and the Nuggets don't run their offense through Jokic as much and then suffer as a team as a result.
Statistically Luka is the MVP, but his teams record is kinda eh. That means #1 right now should be Giannis, #2 Luka, #3 Curry, #4 Tatum, #5 Embiid, #6 KD. Curry is quickly rising, if his team keeps winning like this then he is the MVP. How can he not be? Curry's MVP season where he was the unanimous MVP is considered one of the greatest MVP seasons of all time and this year he's putting up even better numbers across the board then he did during that MVP season. He's also on pace to break his own single season 3 point record. He's averaging 32, 7 and 6 while shooting 50/40/90 shooting percentages! That's insane. On top of that he has like a 32 PER right now which would be good for top 5 PER's all time. What Luka is doing is crazy, but his shooting percentages are pretty eh. His field goal percentage isn't super high, his 3pt percentage is still really low and the lowest of his career and his free throw percentage is still really low for a player of his caliber. If Luka just shot 35-40% from 3 and 80% from the free throw line then he'd be averaging 40 points right now. He really needs to work on his 3 ball and his free throw shooting. They should not be this bad, especially for a European player. It's weird. It's like God put all of Lebron's skillet and 3 point/free throw shooting abilities into Luka's body, minus LeBron's athleticism. Luka's got that low percentage LeBron 3 ball/free throw shooting. Those things are easy to work on and improve on so I don't know why Luka is having such low 3pt and free throw percentages still when he's in like his 4th year now?
"Jokic turns into a shell of himself", your "analysis" is a joke
@@tupacandeazyefan No considering this Jokic's numbers are down this year when he's playing with Murray and Porter this year, I'd say my analysis is pretty spot on. He's still averaging incredible numbers, 25, 10 and 9 but his 3 point and free throw percentages are down and last year he was averaging 27, 13 and 8 without Murray and Porter. So his scoring was higher, he grabbed more rebounds without them, he had better shooting percentages without them. If you look at Jokic's numbers without Murray and Porter the last 3 years they are way higher and better when they are not on the floor and the Nuggets actually have a better record as a team when the offense is revolving solely around a high usage Jokic and when Murray and Porter are not playing. The numbers don't lie. Not saying Denver is a better team without Murray and Porter because they have t been able to do crap in the playoffs without them and they went to the Western Conference finals not long ago when they had a heathy Jokic, Murray and Porter all playing together. It's starting to look like Porter and Murray have declined drastically and it's looking like they aren't ever going to be much better then what we've seen from them. It's possible their peak could already be behind them..But it's a statistical fact that Jokic plays way better without Murray and Porter and that he had way more big high scoring games and .ore triple doubles. Last year Jokic had 19 triple doubles, so far this season we are about half way through the season now and Jokic only has 7 triple doubles. So he's on pace to only have 13-14 of them this year. Still an amazing amount and still could enough for 1st or 2nd most in the league behind Luka. But the reality is that Jokic without Murray and Porter playing is on a when different level. That's because Murray dominates the ball a lot, meaning the offense runs through Jokic less when Murray is on the floor. And then Murray and Porter both take shots away from Jokic. So it's just common sense that Jokic would have better numbers when he's not playing with them and doesn't have to share the ball or the offense with them. The weird thing is the fact that the Nuggets have a better record as a team when it's just Jokic and when Murray and Porter are injured and not playing.
@@tupacandeazyefan Also Jokic is in the MVP race but he doesn't really have a chance unless he gets his scoring up. Also if you look at Jokic's numbers from 2017-2020 when he was playing with Murray and Porter you'll see that his numbers are way down. He normally averages only 20-24 points when Murray and Porter are both healthy and playing heavy minutes. Right now they are not themselves and are not playing heavy minutes so it hasn't effected Jokic's numbers too much, but earlier in the season when they were playing more minutes Jokic was only averaging like 20 points, 9 rebounds and 8 assists the first 10-15 games of the year.
It’s giannis
All I know is MJ should have more MVPs, LeBron should probably have at least one more MVP, an Gainnis should Be a 3x MVP going fonhi 4th!!!...... I don't know how jokic has won 2 in a row over Gainnis!!! Plz make it make sense!
Edit: let me say that the year 🌹 won!! He deserved it
Exactly. Somebody had to say it👏
The model is trash. Kevin Durant and kawhi Leonard have near zero percent chance to win mvp.
Based on my model, it would be
Luka, curry, jokic, Giannis in that order.
yours is also trash you put curry on list while he is played less like kawhi does...
If Giannis wins, it wont be 3 times in the same decade. He won in 2019. and 2020. So far, Jokic is the only guy who won MVP award in this decade.
2020 is definitely part of this decade
@@jakeharrison207 nope, decade starts with 1 not with zero. Thi decade started in 2021. and it will end in 2030.
@@eddiewrathchild2016 simply wrong
@@jakeharrison207 when did 21st century started? 2000. or 2001.?
@@eddiewrathchild2016 why did you jump from decade to century.