For anyone wondering where Thor and I are at or if there was any issue with this discussion. The way I see this talk is two damn good professionals sharing expertise and helping each other reach conclusions in real time. I am a marketing professional but I don't practice an exact science. I see Thor's perspective and his mindset is absolutely correct to wait and see tangible developments in his data before making decisions about his business - or saying with certainty that something is going on to his community. Everyone should take all information available and develop their own conclusions based on a combination of their own data, experience, and outside expertise - and that is exactly what Thor is doing. We are so polarized by media and drama that it's impossible for many to believe that two people with differing viewpoints can have a reasonable conversation and grow from it. I don't see this as a "Thor or Devin is right or wrong" issue. Thor and I are on opposite sides of the industry and in a rare position where we don't have anything to gain from each other, so this produced a genuine conversation. I'm on the same team as Thor and I think we're both driven to help the media and gaming landscape improve and want to see that happen. I'm honored Thor came to talk and he's a major force in improving the industry. Above all I hope people enjoy the discussion.
so you have verifiable information, but wont release it, THAT is stupid command someone to speak a certain way using streamer guilt, yours fuckin weird
Not on every subject, on a subject that they only have limited knowledge and understanding about the thing they are talking about. And to be fair, everyone is doing that. They don't have a smoking gun for nothing. If there are people that their revenue is going down, there are plausible explanations about that that doesn't fit the hypothesis presented. There's the Occam's razor.
Devin is like a scientist calculating a meteor's trajectory, double-checking with other experts (ad buyers) to confirm the math. Thor is a citizen in the impact zone who says, "I don't see a meteor, and maybe it'll burn up before hitting us." Both could be right-maybe the math is off, or the meteor dissolves harmlessly. But the danger lies in ignoring expert warnings and relying solely on personal observations (data).
From my understanding, his position is straightforward: perhaps something significant will happen, but for now, nothing has changed yet. And that "yet" is crucial. To be honest, he approached the discussion like a scientist, analyzing data to determine whether advertisers leaving the platform have had any measurable impact. According to his data, there hasn’t been any impact, YET. He’s not denying that things are evolving. He’s simply presenting numbers that show the impact has been negligible so far. Of course, we might see changes sooner rather than later, but who knows? At this point, it’s all speculation. You can hear opinions from multiple experts, but in the end, they’re still opinions. There's nothing more reliable than data to support a claim. As of now, no data suggests that streamers are losing a significant amount of money. That may change in the future, but again, who knows?
@@moitp2 this is incorrect, Pirate is saying the data doesn’t show an impact and Devin is telling him it’s impossible to see that impact at this moment because data doesn’t work in real time. Pirate software is intentionally using a red herring for engagement and to use it as a ‘gotcha’. The data may not show the impact right now as data works in the past but Devin is trying to tell him the data source itself has now completely changed (the advertising) and that Pirate is intentionally baiting engagement with saying there is no issue at all. There is an issue, it may not cause trouble but when there’s no money coming to Twitch, it will cause trouble, as we’ve seen previously. Pirate even admits there may not be but he refuses to change his statements as he knows it creates this spotlight on him. Remember: Pirate says to advertise yourself and get your brand out there by any means necessary.
@@chavo4207 "by any means necessary" is that an exact quote? sounds like that's what you feel he is saying. it implies he condones anything (including illegal or unethical actions) to spread your brand. i dont feel he would get away with spreading a message like that.
You realize Thor doesn't have access to any of that trajectory data right? He's not ignoring experts he's just pointing out that streamer data doesn't suggest anything wrong and other streamers saying otherwise is stupid.
Devin: “I sell the ads to Twitch, they’re pulling out and have told me that directly” Pirate: “My dashboard hasn’t changed so that’s not true” I would have ended the conversation there lol
Did you listen to him? You are all acting like all of this WILL happen, as if NOTHING will be done on Twitch's part or Amazons part. The adpocalypse would happen for sure, where advertisers pull out. BUT only if Twitch does NOT pull new advertisers IN, or convince ADL of doing something else, OR do something that will change the mind of ADL. Yea, this WILL happen if Twitch goes 'hand's-up' and does NOTHING. But you really gotta be stupid to think that they won't do anything.
@@HH-le1vi Well, kinda; he said there COULD be one soon. Problems is between Data projection and evidence, right? There exist no public data that would project an adpocalypse. On the other hand, there's evidence supporting that one MIGHT happen, which is still speculation at this point. Sure evidence points towards it, but without more, it's impossible to say for sure.
@@HH-le1vi I’ll agree to that but Pirate also would not change his ‘factual’ statement, at all. Devin even attempted to meet him half way by asking for an extra footnote of clarity attached to that, he absolutely refused because he knows what he’s saying isn’t actually a statement of fact.
@@nicki6355 an expert opinion can be used as evidence itself in some capacity and with the backing of the article, I’d say that expert opinion is thus reinforced with Devin. To be fair though, I’m a bit biased towards Devin, I find him very informative and entertaining so that could be a factor lol
Piratesoftware’s logic is frustrating. Like the news could announce that there a hurricane coming but since it’s dry outside his house right now, there’s no need to worry.
I agree but what it seems to come down to is a lack of information from Twitch itself. Thor's burrito graph shows he had to spend time to derive as much analytics as possible from the information he did get. The other additional thing is that Twitch is now starting to use tags (which let's face it is a lousy system, it relies on people being honest and not using them to meme), incorporating a trained AI model into the system would be much more effective with regards to demonitization, similar to RUclips's AI for demonitization. It looks for those things that equate to a condition that is not advertiser friendly or something that violates copyright (Content ID system)
hes not as smart as he thinks he is, and ive seen his code its average. 10 minutes in and thor says "theres no evidence of anything changing, just that it might change." people making moves around this issue prove things are already changing, it was just weak
I don’t quite understand Thor’s logic. Devin establishes that there’s a delay between advertisers pulling funding and the impact. If you wait for the strike, then it’s too late. I get not freaking out too early, but it’s almost worst to be blind and reactionary only when shit hits the fan. Devin didn't just see the bomb... he was in the room with the people who launched the bomb.
They're only speaking to their own experiences, neither are authoritive. Thor would be effectively lying if he parroted unverified information as fact.
Hes made a whole carreer about being confident about everything he says, i think its momentum at this point. Instead of giving his opinion, wich isnt a crazy one, and then accepting that he might be wrong, hes full throatedly confident from the get go because thats what hes used to
In what sense is Thor blind to the situation? He acknowledges the chance of this happening in the future hence the always be on multiple platforms etc. but you can't know if it will happen or not based on current data.
-i have first hand knowledge of a declaration of war against us and we have satelite photos of the enemy military base getting ready to attack - i dont see any soldiers in front of me, we are clearly not at war...🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️
People call pirate stupid, but he aint. He is bad faith. At the 13 minute mark he lets the mask slip by saying " if we all say this is happening, it will happen." He just doesnt want it to happen and therefor he says it isnt happening. He is just out there to defend twitch.
@@Charharr not for one with the ego of thinking he's better than one, or one that while being an indie also works for a publisher.... PS just happens to fall in both those categories
but there are people colluding right now to make the adpocalypse a reality, that much is true. When you say Pirate is "defending" Twitch you admit that you know some people are currently attacking Twitch, they just haven't been successful yet. Pirate certainly doesn't want to go against his own platform but he certainly isnt lying when he shows his data.
@@ronmexico7256 I think Thor in some areas is really smart like when he talks about hacking and all the work he's done in that space. But I think maybe after blowing up he's developed a bit of an ego because things like this come up and he speaks with such confidence about things it's clear he has very little understanding.
The combination of Thor being so confident even when hes wrong, and the stupid bass boosted filter to make his voice sound manly are such an oddly funny combination
Basically pirate is saying, I haven’t been personally affected by a decrease in advertising so it’s not happening and everybody else who is claiming they are affected are saying so for incorrect reasons. Granting him that, any decrease in advertising revenue would inherently be a lagging indicator of advertising spend being killed now. He is a smart enough guy to understand that. I don’t know why he’s digging in.
That isnt' what he is saying. What he is saying is that there is not currently an "adpocalypse" happening on twitch when people are claming that there is. The analytics for twitch don't support that it's happening right now and after the conversation, Devin agrees with him. And both of them agree that in the future, possibly the near future, one could happen.
@mapleworldorder I think the technicality that adverse effects are not yet visible is a concession that Devin made so that the conversation could remain productive. Pirate’s denial of any outside information meant the Devin wasn’t going to make any headway. Devin’s bomb analogy is appropriate in this case. I applaud Pirate not inherently appealing to authority but Devin’s insight into advertisers should be taken in good faith.
@@MaPleWoRlDOrder there is a lag of impact, think of it like shipping, you have things in transit (the ads) and you have the dock workers loading the shipments, well if the dock workers stop working, and stop loading shipping containers, the shipments already in transit will still arrive, it's just that once those shipments in transit (prepaid ad contracts) run out, there is not going to be magical shipments appearing out of thin air. Once the ads that have already been paid for run out, you will start to see the major impact caused by the people that have pulled out.
Didn't Devin already say that as buys for November has been effected in his last video? If anyone has some credibility to make up on this it's Devin not pirate software and I don't even like pirate: usually he talks directly out his ass
@colamity_5000 yes there is an adpocalypse. 11 of their biggest advertisers pulled out. They had to change community policies. These tags just stopped all hot tub and political comtent creators, who were some of the biggest creators, from getting 90% of their ad money. Therr is an apocalypse, they just stopped paying a huge chunk of people so they could pay their biggest ones.
@colamity_5000 Yes, he did, and yes, they have. The ad buys were affected, they were reduced, the issue is that there is still pre-existing fulfilments on the ads bought before that so it's not verifiable on the streamer level.
Yeah if I wasn't cooking with this video in the background I definitely would have clicked out early. The video is really good after that conversation ended.
The bomb example was the best way to explain it. After that the conversation was done. The affect has already happened, the event is already happening. You’re just waiting for the fallout. This is like him saying the stars still exist as he can see the light. Time delayed effects do not mean somethings not already happened.
This 2 1/2 hours boils down to Thor not trusting Devin's take that twitch is in the early stages of an adpocalypse. Add to that Thor posting on twitter, there is NO adpocalypse just trust me bro. Devin is speaking about advertisers moving away from twitch as a whole while Thor is speaking about individual streamers not losing advertising. Both of these things can certainly be true. Devin is suggesting a proactive approach to what he perceives to be an inevitable outcome while Thor suggests a passive approach. I fully agree with Devin when he says that Thor should probably be more clear in that he has no experienced a loss of advertising to his personal channel or the handful of individual channels he's looked at.
Thor's argument brings back memories to getting my degree in mathematics. "A set X is an open set, if and only if, for any element x in X, there exists a neighborhood around x, such that the neighborhood is a proper subset of X." Thor: The empty set is an open set. Since the empty set has no elements, the initial condition of an element existing is false, and thus the statement is vacuously true. Yeah I mean. Yes. Technically you're correct. But this is not useful. As the most hyperbolic example possible: Prime numbers are numbers that are only divisible by 1 and itself. Can you give me an example of something that isn't a prime number? Yes. A cat is not a prime number. - Totally, 100% true statement.
So, what would be a useful conclusion? The only conclusion is that we have not enough evidence to reach a conclusion. And that argument, on itself, meets the most stringent academic setting, but it doesn't satisfy the public, because the public wants guarantees that no one can offer. Instead, the public must be patient and see.
@@Braiam That depends on your definition of "evidence". An issue with Thor's analysis, even in that strict logical setting, is that his definition for "evidence" was wholly bad. It is objectively bad, frankly. He only allowed hard data to be considered evidence, when he had someone that literally buys and sells ads, telling him that people are pausing their purchases. If you extend Thor's logic, it implies the following. "Your boss tells you in writing, that for every hour you work, you will not receive any money. He doesn't have the money, and you're effectively being laid off. You decide that you need physical evidence of non-payment, to truly believe that your income will drop to $0. That data shows a different story, that you actually will be getting paid. So you wait 2 weeks to receive that paycheck, to verify the statement from your boss, telling you that you're not going to receive any compensation for working."
Its clopen bro ... chill... I'm a real mathematician here to tell u to chillax. The { } is clopen Also fun fact: the compliment of empty set is the whole real line (or whatever space u be using) ... and that is ALSO clopen. So bro... u are just seeing things all wrong. Wait what is this argument about again? Also thor uses a bass boost for voice. He is a sperg Also fun fact: the rationals are a countable union of closed sets The irrationals are the compliment of the above set.... a countable intersection of open sets. Try to picture those sets in ur head. I can. But that's cause I'm amazing Ok fine.... if u wanna visualize f sigma and g delta sets... look up Thomae's function
He was the co-host for trainwrecks podcast and once that ended devon kinda went back to his corner of the internet. Devon's always had a very specific type of analytic content not really all that popular.
Good talk about this. Always down to chat more. Updating the burrito index again at the end of the month and bringing it back to a standard thing for the community. So far we're seeing a 6% increase in adrev for November over October but we're not done with the month yet so it's incomplete data. We should chat again either at the end of the month or end of the year about what data comes through.
Assuming payouts to creators is directly correlated to ad spending monthly/weekly/daily or the like and not a static amount per quarter. Its not really crazy that the month containing black friday and cyber monday saw an increase in revenue november over october. This does not support your point.
@@skabadoo255 That's solved with seasonal adjusted analysis. Also, it would still prove his point, because advertisers would still have confidence in the platform to deliver business their way.
while I will never forgive you for cutting off Niarja and ruining my JF routes I agree we should keep having more awesome discussions for the betterment of the galaxy as a whole
Devin: there's a bomb over there Pirate: not until i check myself there isn't Devin: a hurricane is coming Pirate: nah i can see the sun out my window Lol
Wait I love that this convo happened (haven't listened yet but I heard pirate talking about it the other day and was really hoping Devin and Him would talk)
King Devin lets the jester beat the dead horse. then proceeds in lifting his kingdom by posting the whole darn thing. im so glad your back you rule with a kind iron fist.
It's a little different. The adpocalypse is more like a hurricane that people are complaining has hit their house and destroyed their roof before it has even made landfall or rained. He's saying "hey it might be termites or something else so research it because the hurricane isn't here." He's not saying the adpocalypse is 100% coming because he has seen journalists inflate issues before and until Devin has given him concrete evidence like saying Chase is pausing ads on the site, he hasn't heard any news site name a single ad that was pulling (honestly same here I just believed Devin before). Climate change in this situation is more akin to Twitch handling bans and politics becoming worse and worse. The greenhouse gasses are getting crazier and crazier as the political content borders more and more on the extreme and Twitch isn't properly managing any of it. The adpocalypse is just a mega storm that's bigger than usual due to the climate change in twitch that threatens to destroy the infrastructure and trust of twitch island.
Here's what i don't like, there's no scenario where Thor is wrong, if there is an adpocolypse he'll say that he just told to wait, and if there isn't hes right, there's no scenario where he raises a white flag and say, I'm wrong guys
I think it's better to explain it as "The nuke hit, but it didn't hit where I am. I will wait and see if the radiation will come downwind despite warnings as currently I do not see any immediate effects"
Also, he believes we should be seeing way more signs that a missile has been launched then what is currently present. I agree with this stance, we saw this with RUclips, that adpocalypse was not something that came out of nowhere.
more like, even if the nuke is launched it's not launched, cause he didn't see it. A PirateSchrodinger law, it's both launched and unlaunched util Thor observes it.
If anyone found the debate frustrating, stick around for the second half, at which point the conversation stops being combative and they have an interesting discussion of the twitch ad platform. This was my first exposure to PirateSoftware, and I ultimately came away with thinking he's an insightful and intelligent guy, even though I do think Devin is correct, given his experience.
@@Jackolantirn 1:09:40 onward roughly. Also, there are several more hours not included in this video (Devin said he's making a separate vid, or you can look up the twitch VOD) where PirateSoftware talks about his content strategy and how he went from ~400 avg viewers to 15000 in about a month, among other things.
Yeah, the rest of the comments surprised me. They're both just sharing their experience as businesses owners and agree that they're talking about different aspects of the same topic.
54:53 PS says "...The point that I will always make is: There is a potential for this, let's wait and see..." Devon specifically said that PS is coming from a place of authority and said "There is no Twitch Apocalypse" at the start of his post but everyone is going to take that as "There is no problem on Twitch" and PS just says that he "doesn't mean that and how is he supposed to know how anyone is going to take it" and "I said it plainly with no reading between the lines needed". If he just said the quote I started this comment with in that post then all would be dandy, but him not saying it makes it seem like the inferred "There is no problem with Twitch" is correct when people read PS's post because many people don't know how straightforward he is and that is why I think a lot of people are having a negative view on his post. I will also follow my own reasoning and state that I like PS, and a lot of people attack him for dumb reasons, but in this scenario I was annoyed that he didn't make it more clear in his post and knew people would make a lot of dumb negative comments toward him because of it.
Yeah even in his last statement on it after clarifying that 'nothing is happening' is not what he thinks, he goes back to 'nothing is happening' lol you can see Devon tempted to circle again but he lets it go.
It's time to double think about everything he says, cause it's not a mishap, it's done on purpose. Not the first time too. It feels like he's running a gigantic social experiment on his community and I'm weirded out that nobody notices it.
I feel like you would have to be very dumb to take "There is no Twitch Apocalypse" as "There is no problem on Twitch". It's like people are out to get him trying to read between the lines to find something that doesn't exist and crucify him over it.
devin the kinda guy to say 'don't you think you have a duty to communicate responsibly to your audience?' and then turn around and platform dan and be like 'yea I don't like how he communicates, but ya know what can you do'. like brotha eeewwwwww
As someone who was in the chat, that Dan guy was absolutely insufferable. I genuinely did not understand why he wasn't banned. The shit he was spewing was vile. I cannot imagine being friends with such a person who would come into my stream and just ruin the experience for hundreds of people with the most hateful, bigoted, crude behavior.
Yeah it's insane how they are on the same page with 90% of stuff and they both clearly understand where the other party is coming from and then comments are acting like one party is completely delusional.
I think Devin is right that majority will read it and think everything is fine. Thor is saying it correctly, but majority doesnt think as deeply as Thor about every word being said. So its better to say "Winter is coming" instead of "There is no sign of winter" Not everyone have firewood ready and is okay with it coming within 24 hours warning.
I don't enjoy the way PS treats a "potential situation", like yes people obviously shouldn't jump ship out of irrational panic... but like, wouldn't you want to educate and prepare yourself for the worst case? Nobody anticipates to get robbed or mugged at any given moment in public on a day to day, that's paranoia. It can still happen though, so why wouldn't you choose to be prepared for plausibility instead of being a victim to it?
the "ex-homeless guy" already forgot that for some people Twitch is their entire livelihood and they don't have spare money to invest and be fine in case they need to move. It's grossly irresponsible. Even if it would end up never happening, people definitely should be prepared for the possibility.
Yeah Thor clearly emphasized the importance of being on multiple platforms for this reason. He's well aware of the risk of it happening, he's just fed up with other streamers acting like they're already "getting robbed".
Can people realize that thor understands everything but he is against mass hysteria. For those comparing him to war deniers, his own career isn’t on the line. He is well prepared in the case of it happening. He simply doesn’t want to spread misinformation and cause hysteria.
No he's a narcissist who cannot admit when he's wrong. Just like with Stop Killing Games, stop idolizing this guy, he's not an authority on anything but his own game.
@@JohnnyUriah No, that's not true. They literally reach a middle ground conclusion to their original conversation, they they bothsay their goodbyes and then * carry on for another 90 minutes * which is then cut short to end the vodeo so they'll have talked for longer. No chance any of these thingns happen if he's "a narcissist". It was a genuinely good convo
Devin (scientist) saying there is a huge Tsunami hitting the shore in 3 days time. Thor on the beach, not currently seeing the effects saying we will see if the tsunami will hit me or will it weaken to the point where it's just a splash. Im surprised thor isnt a gambling man cuz i would not take those odds 😂
@dagowow Stop that, this has nothing to do with what I asked and I will not get thrown into this bullshit framing. I ask again how many times has Devin claimed Twitch was on its last leg?
lol PS says he speaks in the most direct way possible.... expect he does so in the most vague non direct way possible so that you can construe what he is saying any number of ways. He's not "speaking directly" he's being intentionally not direct in order to get across the message he wants while covering himself or he is one of the worst professional communicators of all time and has 0 ability to reflect on his own actions. Well we do know that the last part is true, hard to say for the rest
The logic itself doesn't extend reasonably to any arbitrary business decision. I make life decisions based on my income. Part of my income is variable and based on data, but I can't base all of it on data alone. Let's say I get paid bi-weekly. If my boss came up to me and said, "I'm reducing your hourly rate to $0. If you come in tomorrow and work, you will be paid $0." No reasonable person would wait for the data on this. By virtue of it being bi-weekly, if your boss said this right after payday, you're effectively going to be missing 4 weeks of income. 4 weeks you could have used to get a different job. At week 3, you can absolutely say, "There is no data driven evidence, that what my boss told me was the truth. The data is telling me that my payrate hasn't changed." - And that's an objectively true statement, fair enough. It's still bad analysis. Not all analysis is data driven, unfortunately.
It seems he was saying he's already prepared through constant diversification and advocates for doing so against any possible event, rather than any specific event. Even Devin mentioned he's likely going to be fine because of his size. Devin's comment about this hurting midsized, less diversified streams seems to be something pirate isn't interested in (at this moment). This seems somewhat valid, as if creators followed best practices, they would be prepared as well, so ps has taken a stance on how to protect yourself. On the other hand, Devin seems to either have more empathy for these smaller channels, or believes they're crucial for the overall health of the platform and it's worth it to take a more active role in protecting them. If you're making decisions for your own business in an unpredictable market, these are both valid lenses. (At an argument level, I'm not adressing the tweet) When i was an ad buyer, we thought pulling back too early might severely hurt performance for what seems like no reason. It's generally been a good idea to go all in while you can with extreme vigilance that things can change any second and respond accordingly. Secondarily, we watch for new opportunities to change what we're doing.
4:37 didnt Twitch stop doing the special contracts with top streamers in the 2021-2022 time frame? as in they ended this practice, its just now partnership.
Pirate is being a little too short sighted here. He agrees that you won't see anything until the ad spend for the current campaigns dry up. So, of course we'd expect to see little to no change in ad revenue NOW. His argument that there's no evidence from a streamer perspective is probably true, but it doesn't mean that the ad spend in the future isn't already down. He just doesn't know it yet. So, yes, he should care about this because it will effect his future revenue. This doesn't mean to stop using Twitch, but to diversify a bit so you don't get hamstrung.
I'm going to try and distill this easily. Is there an adpocolypse on Twitch, the answer is neither knows. A few advertisers have pulled out, for whatever reason, will they go back who knows. Could there be an ad drop, possibly, based on how many advertisers have left the platform and as the budget runs out. The real problem as Thor pointed out is that Twitch doesn't enough information to predict certain things. As for those streamers that have lost revenue, it is because certain tags automatically demonitize streamers. The advertisers have probably been bitching for awhile and now that they are pulling out that's when Twitch makes changes. Thor is correct that for the majority of streamers there is no adpocolypse and yes we will see these same people bitch in January because they themselves don't know what they are doing nor do they track or keep statistics of their business to help improve it. Devin is concerned that there will be an ad drop because he has clients that have decided to pull ads, but this is his business. He is looking at markets whereas Thor is looking at his specific business. Thor is correct to only look at hard data when making decisions, it is something of an outpoint to assume something is there when it may not be, that's a bad way to run a business. He can predict trends once they start occuring, if he is doing his calculations on a weekly and hourly basis (stream times can be variable so one has to look at the total hours per week and calculate the number of ads played and the revenue earned for that week. Having statistics monthly is too slow for a business a lot can happen in a month while your waiting for information. Devin statistics is how many clients does he have that are advertising where and since he is seeing them pull from Twitch he is able to predict a reduction in the future, not necessarily a large reduction but one nonetheless. I don't think Twitch will see it reliably until next March when ad revenues typically go up.
PirateSoftware is a guy who did QA at Blizzard, probably a couple of entry level Udemy classes on some popular programming languages, and is somehow known as a "dev bro." For those who don't know, you don't need any kind of education to do QA, nor Udemy, in fact. Any one of you can become a Dev Bro today! :D
Piratesoft is so disingenuous wtf. Gets called out and tries to weasel his way into being right anyways. "I meant currently" "can you agree that I'm right about just currently". Any reasonable person would see his tweet and think he's talking about the overall health of twitch.
So Pirate Software wouldn't leave his home knowing a category 5 hurricane was coming towards him and he's on beachfront property is what this sounds like.
He wouldn't leave his home, if random weather reporters and some neighbours started shouting there's a cat 5 hurricane coming. Not from the NHC, or the people out on the Sea where this supposedly is happening.
Well to be fair, it's not a great comparison because people can stream right up until they are getting no revenue, get hit with the revenue drop and they are not losing any more than they would of anyway, they would lose more by moving all their eggs to another basket early. He advocates people multi platform stream already so they should be prepared for a platform to take a hit always from his perspective, never put all your eggs in one basket.
Last night was a stream I would have gladly rewatched start to finish...sad to see it isnt available...hope they don't cut too much out of the reposts.
I'm 30 minutes in and agree on everything except for what to call the apocalypse. Devin says advertisers pulling out shows an adpocalypse is coming and PS says a reduction in ad revenue shows an adpocalypse is here. Both can be true and it's a semantic fight. Devin calls reports of the bomb dropping the adpocalypse and PS says the shockwave hitting is the adpocalypse.
What does your data say, about what Twitch is doing to prevent it, minimize it and/or circumvent it? Nothing. Does that mean that Twitch isn't doing anything? You'd be fkin stupid to think they are sitting on their ass whilst this is happening.
I believe that I've got the origin of the issue for the first half of this discussion Devin is watching the current Ad events and garnering data to the future TS is watching people saying that it's already happening (but it isn't). It takes weeks for ad policies to change, so if Asmon was the trigger for the event, it wouldn't be happening right now. Again, one is dealing with people saying that it's happening, and the other one is predicting based on what he's seeing from the other side (but that only will happen on the next weeks)
The problem here is that Devin doesn’t give a comparison to the behavior of advertisers during other “Twitch scandals”. There wasn’t a comparable situation provided in the past with Twitch that proves that the current behavior of certain advertisers will significantly reduce their ad spend in the long run. This is Thor’s point. Without a actual model that is based on real data from the past, you have to use current data and you can’t necessarily trust your predictions
For the first 40 minutes PS makes the argument that you can never say that someone is dying you can only say after the fact that someone has died because you never know they might not die some how, either your slightly wrong and they manage to live or you interfere and save them it doesn't matter, they weren't dying because afterwards we know that they didn't die.
They are talking about different things. Cause and Effect. Thor is talking about Effect. What people are claiming to be the symptoms of an Adpocalypse, aren't actually real (as of now). Devin is talking about Cause. It doesn't matter if the symptoms still haven't showed up, the effect will for sure take place since the cause is real. I understand both. I just think they should have come to this conclusion pretty early in the conversation.
They did. The problem at that point (and what they stay on for at least 30 minutes and I started tuning out after everything became circular), is Devin is saying Thor is mishandling how he is speaking to his audience by giving everyone a false sense of security by saying "There is no Adpocalypse." At the end of the day, it's argument over how something was said.
Really enjoying this conversation and really confused about the takes against Thor's viewpoint on the adpocalypse. Saying things like "he's denying that there's a bomb until it explodes" or "he wouldn't believe there's a hurricane until it hits his house" is a misread on what he actually thinks, which is that there *is* and advertising problem in general, but based on what he's researched and the data and information *he* has, it's not this huge adpocalypse yet.
You rarely see two people on the Internet have a disagreement, talk to both of eachother to reconcile, and come to a similar conclusion in an intelligent and communicative manner.
Strictly speaking what pirate is saying is true. there seems to be no apocalypse RIGHT NOW. What devin is saying though is that putting out a tweet saying there is no apocalypse gives people who read it the impression that nothing is happening and everything is fine. to which he responds. "I don't care about what happens in the future, what my data shows is that there is no apocalypse, so my tweet is correct."
What I don't get is why ad revenue for streamers not impacted by the tag bans isn't increasing right now. They should be getting a higher density of high CPM ads.
Also, why does the politics category need to be demonitized? There's nothing wrong with politics being monetized. The issue is that there's a small group fo streamers that are immune to ToS violation consequences and therefore have pushed further and further into hyper extreme rhetoric and content. THAT is what needs to be demonetized/banned
Thor is engaging with this topic in the most cringe way possible. It honestly seems like he's intentionally acting obtuse in order to win an argument. His entire point rests on him saying "well we just can't know anything, cause it hasn't happened yet". Devin then tells him that this is certainly going to happen cause there are numerous advertisers that have paused ads. Thor's response remains the same, which is "well it hasn't hit me yet, so it's not real". Nice man! Super good faith engagement with the substance of the conversation!!! Edit: Oh god, it gets even worse. Thor then makes the claim, "well I can't control how people will interpret my message, and technically I'm correct". Lil bro, if tons of people are misunderstanding your message, then maybe your message is just shit. Language is imprecise. Communication thru language always has tons of implications along with it. You'd never go ask a friend "hey, are you hungry" and then walk away when they answer yes. The obvious implication of that question is that you want to go eat with them. Your tweet is clearly implying that everything is perfectly OK with Twitch. There's evidence that it isn't. Choosing to ignore that evidence and then proclaiming that your statement is "technically" right is hollow and meaningless.
I completely agree with him about there’s a lot of influencers screaming ad apocalypse (or screaming wolf) but then when you look at their metrics it’s just false representation. I personally see under one influencers channel the same guy every once in a while talking about “twitch not paying him” to bait people to follow him but when you look at their metrics, it’s bought followers, bought viewers, no subs. So people are whining and crying wolf about these things 24/7 and it makes it hard to believe it when they scream it now.
And hes right about the adpocalypse isnt he? If your stopping pay to a huge chunk of creators, hot tub and political is 2 huge sections, just to pay other people cause 11 of your biggest advertisers dropped, that is an adpocalypse, right??
Lots of hate against Thor in the comments but I really don't think his perspective is that bad here. I think he's a bit off with how he sees the situation, but people are acting like he should be doing something drastically different when everything is hearsay at this point. Streamers lie to create drama all the time, and him being skeptical of that being the case here isn't illogical.
You platformed terrorists over here. Idiot of course there's an apocalypse coming. Elon sued twitch last night. Stop avoiding the left wing fgtry that got you here.
42:00 -ish.. That's the longest way of agreeing to disagree... (skip past that if you don't want to listen to 40 minutes of different twists on the same argument)
I do think that there are the issues in the comments about Thor not being an expert here and speaking like he is one BUT I think that's really important because I think a lot of the people making headlines and drama about the apocalypse have even less of an idea and they are making claims as if they are sure of it. I believe Devin Nash for sure but I also think a lot of content creators are acting based off of either emotion and limited data OR they are acting in bad faith to cash in on drama and content.
Honestly, Devin's point is more frustrating than Thors. There is a point somewhere in the first 20 minutes in this video where Devin makes the bomb analogy and he says that the bomb has already hit but that the shockwave isn't there. Previous to that analogy, Thor asked specifically if Devin has seen a 20-30% revenue drop, to which he said no, but that it is coming. In this bomb analogy, how would someone know exactly how strong the shockwave is gonna be based on the explosion that they saw? What if it was a 5% drop? (I don't think it going to be, but please follow the logic here) In this case, that wouldn't have been a ad apocalypse by Devin's own defined percentages. That is the problem. When you say that there is an adpocalypse coming, you are explicitly saying that a shock wave of X amount of strength is coming. And I don't think that it is possible to tell exactly by how much it is going to drop. We all expect something big, but we don't know. What if it is 18? That doesn't fit Devin's definition either, despite being a fairly noticeable number. We can go on and on with this.
I can't agree with thor's argument in the beginning of the video mostly because I trust devin's dataset more. And no, both can't be right at the same time.
Oh man. I'm a huge fan of PirateSoftware so this is disheartening. Because he's just... dumb here. Like he's being deliberately obtuse. "Is ad revenue down right now?" "Well no. That's not how it works. Once it happens it takes x amount of time for it to show for streamers." "So there's absolutely no change to ads on Twitch then." "Um, no. There is. A change has happened, and people will see the effect of that change x amount of time afterwards." "I have not noticed a change yet, therefore no change has happened." LIke... what? The shockwave is the perfect analogy. You can see the explosion, and the shockwave hasn't hit you yet. But Pirate's response is "Being able to see the explosion isn't relevant data. The only relevant data is the shockwave because that's what hits me personally." Just dumb.
![The Twitch Adpocalypse Has Begun [Explained]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/UR7arYyR5pk/mqdefault.jpg)
![The Twitch Adpocalypse Has Begun [Explained]](/img/tr.png)
For anyone wondering where Thor and I are at or if there was any issue with this discussion. The way I see this talk is two damn good professionals sharing expertise and helping each other reach conclusions in real time. I am a marketing professional but I don't practice an exact science. I see Thor's perspective and his mindset is absolutely correct to wait and see tangible developments in his data before making decisions about his business - or saying with certainty that something is going on to his community. Everyone should take all information available and develop their own conclusions based on a combination of their own data, experience, and outside expertise - and that is exactly what Thor is doing.
We are so polarized by media and drama that it's impossible for many to believe that two people with differing viewpoints can have a reasonable conversation and grow from it. I don't see this as a "Thor or Devin is right or wrong" issue. Thor and I are on opposite sides of the industry and in a rare position where we don't have anything to gain from each other, so this produced a genuine conversation. I'm on the same team as Thor and I think we're both driven to help the media and gaming landscape improve and want to see that happen.
I'm honored Thor came to talk and he's a major force in improving the industry. Above all I hope people enjoy the discussion.
so you have verifiable information, but wont release it, THAT is stupid command someone to speak a certain way using streamer guilt, yours fuckin weird
Very important to understand what the Dunning-Kruger effect is when listening to someone who speaks with full confidence on every subject
who you speaking about? thor or devin?
@@shrek1onDVD Thor
@@shrek1onDVD Asmongold 😂
@Inforcer47 That would be correct. I thought it was obvious 😅
Not on every subject, on a subject that they only have limited knowledge and understanding about the thing they are talking about. And to be fair, everyone is doing that. They don't have a smoking gun for nothing. If there are people that their revenue is going down, there are plausible explanations about that that doesn't fit the hypothesis presented. There's the Occam's razor.
Devin is like a scientist calculating a meteor's trajectory, double-checking with other experts (ad buyers) to confirm the math. Thor is a citizen in the impact zone who says, "I don't see a meteor, and maybe it'll burn up before hitting us." Both could be right-maybe the math is off, or the meteor dissolves harmlessly. But the danger lies in ignoring expert warnings and relying solely on personal observations (data).
From my understanding, his position is straightforward: perhaps something significant will happen, but for now, nothing has changed yet. And that "yet" is crucial.
To be honest, he approached the discussion like a scientist, analyzing data to determine whether advertisers leaving the platform have had any measurable impact. According to his data, there hasn’t been any impact, YET.
He’s not denying that things are evolving. He’s simply presenting numbers that show the impact has been negligible so far.
Of course, we might see changes sooner rather than later, but who knows? At this point, it’s all speculation. You can hear opinions from multiple experts, but in the end, they’re still opinions. There's nothing more reliable than data to support a claim. As of now, no data suggests that streamers are losing a significant amount of money. That may change in the future, but again, who knows?
@@SeyHan3232 me no rock see in sky. Rock in sky not real. You Devin not good. Bad Devin. I win debate Devin. Oga booga
@@moitp2 this is incorrect, Pirate is saying the data doesn’t show an impact and Devin is telling him it’s impossible to see that impact at this moment because data doesn’t work in real time. Pirate software is intentionally using a red herring for engagement and to use it as a ‘gotcha’. The data may not show the impact right now as data works in the past but Devin is trying to tell him the data source itself has now completely changed (the advertising) and that Pirate is intentionally baiting engagement with saying there is no issue at all. There is an issue, it may not cause trouble but when there’s no money coming to Twitch, it will cause trouble, as we’ve seen previously. Pirate even admits there may not be but he refuses to change his statements as he knows it creates this spotlight on him.
Remember: Pirate says to advertise yourself and get your brand out there by any means necessary.
@@chavo4207 "by any means necessary" is that an exact quote? sounds like that's what you feel he is saying. it implies he condones anything (including illegal or unethical actions) to spread your brand. i dont feel he would get away with spreading a message like that.
You realize Thor doesn't have access to any of that trajectory data right? He's not ignoring experts he's just pointing out that streamer data doesn't suggest anything wrong and other streamers saying otherwise is stupid.
Devin: “I sell the ads to Twitch, they’re pulling out and have told me that directly”
Pirate: “My dashboard hasn’t changed so that’s not true”
I would have ended the conversation there lol
Did you listen to him?
You are all acting like all of this WILL happen, as if NOTHING will be done on Twitch's part or Amazons part. The adpocalypse would happen for sure, where advertisers pull out. BUT only if Twitch does NOT pull new advertisers IN, or convince ADL of doing something else, OR do something that will change the mind of ADL.
Yea, this WILL happen if Twitch goes 'hand's-up' and does NOTHING. But you really gotta be stupid to think that they won't do anything.
Pirate software was saying there's no adpocalypse right this minute but there will be one soon. They both agreed on that sentiment.
@@HH-le1vi Well, kinda; he said there COULD be one soon.
Problems is between Data projection and evidence, right? There exist no public data that would project an adpocalypse.
On the other hand, there's evidence supporting that one MIGHT happen, which is still speculation at this point. Sure evidence points towards it, but without more, it's impossible to say for sure.
@@HH-le1vi I’ll agree to that but Pirate also would not change his ‘factual’ statement, at all. Devin even attempted to meet him half way by asking for an extra footnote of clarity attached to that, he absolutely refused because he knows what he’s saying isn’t actually a statement of fact.
@@nicki6355 an expert opinion can be used as evidence itself in some capacity and with the backing of the article, I’d say that expert opinion is thus reinforced with Devin. To be fair though, I’m a bit biased towards Devin, I find him very informative and entertaining so that could be a factor lol
Piratesoftware’s logic is frustrating. Like the news could announce that there a hurricane coming but since it’s dry outside his house right now, there’s no need to worry.
He is right that people shouldn't panic because when you panic is when you make mistakes.
I agree but what it seems to come down to is a lack of information from Twitch itself. Thor's burrito graph shows he had to spend time to derive as much analytics as possible from the information he did get.
The other additional thing is that Twitch is now starting to use tags (which let's face it is a lousy system, it relies on people being honest and not using them to meme), incorporating a trained AI model into the system would be much more effective with regards to demonitization, similar to RUclips's AI for demonitization. It looks for those things that equate to a condition that is not advertiser friendly or something that violates copyright (Content ID system)
Its more like he is saying "just cause somebody says it's raining outside doesnt mean a hurricane is coming"
hes not as smart as he thinks he is, and ive seen his code its average. 10 minutes in and thor says "theres no evidence of anything changing, just that it might change." people making moves around this issue prove things are already changing, it was just weak
but if the initial claim is that there is a hurricane just outside your house and you can check and see that there isn't, the """expert""" is wrong.
I’m glad other are starting to notice how confidently wrong Thor can be
I don’t quite understand Thor’s logic. Devin establishes that there’s a delay between advertisers pulling funding and the impact. If you wait for the strike, then it’s too late. I get not freaking out too early, but it’s almost worst to be blind and reactionary only when shit hits the fan. Devin didn't just see the bomb... he was in the room with the people who launched the bomb.
Right on the dot
They're only speaking to their own experiences, neither are authoritive. Thor would be effectively lying if he parroted unverified information as fact.
Hes made a whole carreer about being confident about everything he says, i think its momentum at this point. Instead of giving his opinion, wich isnt a crazy one, and then accepting that he might be wrong, hes full throatedly confident from the get go because thats what hes used to
In what sense is Thor blind to the situation? He acknowledges the chance of this happening in the future hence the always be on multiple platforms etc. but you can't know if it will happen or not based on current data.
There is no Adpocalypse in Ba Sing Se
-i have first hand knowledge of a declaration of war against us and we have satelite photos of the enemy military base getting ready to attack
- i dont see any soldiers in front of me, we are clearly not at war...🤦♂️🤦♂️🤦♂️
People call pirate stupid, but he aint. He is bad faith.
At the 13 minute mark he lets the mask slip by saying " if we all say this is happening, it will happen." He just doesnt want it to happen and therefor he says it isnt happening. He is just out there to defend twitch.
If PS is one thing, it's a corpo shill. Ironic for an "indie game dev"
@@CharharrLOL real
@@Charharr not for one with the ego of thinking he's better than one, or one that while being an indie also works for a publisher.... PS just happens to fall in both those categories
but there are people colluding right now to make the adpocalypse a reality, that much is true. When you say Pirate is "defending" Twitch you admit that you know some people are currently attacking Twitch, they just haven't been successful yet. Pirate certainly doesn't want to go against his own platform but he certainly isnt lying when he shows his data.
Manipulative is the word and it's not the first time he shows it
Devin - you have the patience of a saint.
You can see Devin slowly realize that PirateSoftware doesn't know what he's talking about
Yeah it’s an awkward conversation. Luckily Devin is a nice guy.
Thor’s confidence does wonders for anything he says. True or false you tend to lean towards whatever he’s saying if you don’t have prior knowledge
@@ronmexico7256 I think Thor in some areas is really smart like when he talks about hacking and all the work he's done in that space. But I think maybe after blowing up he's developed a bit of an ego because things like this come up and he speaks with such confidence about things it's clear he has very little understanding.
@@imnezu8940 Nah, he is clueless about hacking as well. Unless you treat social engineering as hacking. But his technical skills are pretty bad.
@@MrDarkoiV what makes you believe that this is the case
The combination of Thor being so confident even when hes wrong, and the stupid bass boosted filter to make his voice sound manly are such an oddly funny combination
It's crazy how he got all the streamers at Twitch con and other IRL appearances to apply the filter on his voice too!
@@cqpzg he voice trains
Basically pirate is saying, I haven’t been personally affected by a decrease in advertising so it’s not happening and everybody else who is claiming they are affected are saying so for incorrect reasons. Granting him that, any decrease in advertising revenue would inherently be a lagging indicator of advertising spend being killed now. He is a smart enough guy to understand that. I don’t know why he’s digging in.
That isnt' what he is saying. What he is saying is that there is not currently an "adpocalypse" happening on twitch when people are claming that there is. The analytics for twitch don't support that it's happening right now and after the conversation, Devin agrees with him. And both of them agree that in the future, possibly the near future, one could happen.
@mapleworldorder I think the technicality that adverse effects are not yet visible is a concession that Devin made so that the conversation could remain productive. Pirate’s denial of any outside information meant the Devin wasn’t going to make any headway. Devin’s bomb analogy is appropriate in this case. I applaud Pirate not inherently appealing to authority but Devin’s insight into advertisers should be taken in good faith.
@@MaPleWoRlDOrder there is a lag of impact, think of it like shipping, you have things in transit (the ads) and you have the dock workers loading the shipments, well if the dock workers stop working, and stop loading shipping containers, the shipments already in transit will still arrive, it's just that once those shipments in transit (prepaid ad contracts) run out, there is not going to be magical shipments appearing out of thin air. Once the ads that have already been paid for run out, you will start to see the major impact caused by the people that have pulled out.
Pirate is yapping and setting himself up to hold zero accountability when everything Devin says comes true
Didn't Devin already say that as buys for November has been effected in his last video? If anyone has some credibility to make up on this it's Devin not pirate software and I don't even like pirate: usually he talks directly out his ass
@colamity_5000 yes there is an adpocalypse. 11 of their biggest advertisers pulled out. They had to change community policies. These tags just stopped all hot tub and political comtent creators, who were some of the biggest creators, from getting 90% of their ad money. Therr is an apocalypse, they just stopped paying a huge chunk of people so they could pay their biggest ones.
@colamity_5000 Yes, he did, and yes, they have. The ad buys were affected, they were reduced, the issue is that there is still pre-existing fulfilments on the ads bought before that so it's not verifiable on the streamer level.
when has Devin ever been correct? 😅
Except ad revenue is returning to streamers now unless you do politics or anything adult oriented
This convo gives "There is no war in Ba Sing Se" vibes, at least up until the 1:09:30-ish mark
I was so close giving up after 30 min, that was infuriating. Glad I stayed because the last 1h45min was an interesting conversation to listen in on.
Yeah if I wasn't cooking with this video in the background I definitely would have clicked out early. The video is really good after that conversation ended.
Piratesoftware’s argument comes down to “If the tornado didn’t hit my house there wasn’t a tornado.”
The bomb example was the best way to explain it. After that the conversation was done. The affect has already happened, the event is already happening. You’re just waiting for the fallout.
This is like him saying the stars still exist as he can see the light. Time delayed effects do not mean somethings not already happened.
yes, and the issue is that there are only about less than 10 people that have claimed to actually see a bomb dropping but they havent taken pictures.
This 2 1/2 hours boils down to Thor not trusting Devin's take that twitch is in the early stages of an adpocalypse. Add to that Thor posting on twitter, there is NO adpocalypse just trust me bro.
Devin is speaking about advertisers moving away from twitch as a whole while Thor is speaking about individual streamers not losing advertising.
Both of these things can certainly be true. Devin is suggesting a proactive approach to what he perceives to be an inevitable outcome while Thor suggests a passive approach.
I fully agree with Devin when he says that Thor should probably be more clear in that he has no experienced a loss of advertising to his personal channel or the handful of individual channels he's looked at.
Thor's argument brings back memories to getting my degree in mathematics.
"A set X is an open set, if and only if, for any element x in X, there exists a neighborhood around x, such that the neighborhood is a proper subset of X."
Thor: The empty set is an open set. Since the empty set has no elements, the initial condition of an element existing is false, and thus the statement is vacuously true.
Yeah I mean. Yes. Technically you're correct. But this is not useful. As the most hyperbolic example possible: Prime numbers are numbers that are only divisible by 1 and itself. Can you give me an example of something that isn't a prime number? Yes. A cat is not a prime number. - Totally, 100% true statement.
So, what would be a useful conclusion? The only conclusion is that we have not enough evidence to reach a conclusion. And that argument, on itself, meets the most stringent academic setting, but it doesn't satisfy the public, because the public wants guarantees that no one can offer. Instead, the public must be patient and see.
@@Braiam That depends on your definition of "evidence". An issue with Thor's analysis, even in that strict logical setting, is that his definition for "evidence" was wholly bad. It is objectively bad, frankly. He only allowed hard data to be considered evidence, when he had someone that literally buys and sells ads, telling him that people are pausing their purchases.
If you extend Thor's logic, it implies the following. "Your boss tells you in writing, that for every hour you work, you will not receive any money. He doesn't have the money, and you're effectively being laid off. You decide that you need physical evidence of non-payment, to truly believe that your income will drop to $0. That data shows a different story, that you actually will be getting paid. So you wait 2 weeks to receive that paycheck, to verify the statement from your boss, telling you that you're not going to receive any compensation for working."
Its clopen bro ... chill... I'm a real mathematician here to tell u to chillax. The { } is clopen
Also fun fact: the compliment of empty set is the whole real line (or whatever space u be using) ... and that is ALSO clopen.
So bro... u are just seeing things all wrong.
Wait what is this argument about again?
Also thor uses a bass boost for voice. He is a sperg
Also fun fact: the rationals are a countable union of closed sets
The irrationals are the compliment of the above set.... a countable intersection of open sets.
Try to picture those sets in ur head. I can. But that's cause I'm amazing
Ok fine.... if u wanna visualize f sigma and g delta sets... look up Thomae's function
this based boosted pirate guy doesn't seem to quite understand what Devin is saying.
That isnt Pirate software his voice isnt bass boosted enough
Dudes whole persona is a meme
Man where did you come from? I saw a lot of you in 2019 and the algorithm has blessed you again
He stopped streaming on twitch out of protest.
He was the co-host for trainwrecks podcast and once that ended devon kinda went back to his corner of the internet. Devon's always had a very specific type of analytic content not really all that popular.
@@GypsumGeneration ahh
He's doing a road to 1 million subscribers thing so he's making a lot more content now than before
Good talk about this.
Always down to chat more.
Updating the burrito index again at the end of the month and bringing it back to a standard thing for the community.
So far we're seeing a 6% increase in adrev for November over October but we're not done with the month yet so it's incomplete data.
We should chat again either at the end of the month or end of the year about what data comes through.
Assuming payouts to creators is directly correlated to ad spending monthly/weekly/daily or the like and not a static amount per quarter. Its not really crazy that the month containing black friday and cyber monday saw an increase in revenue november over october. This does not support your point.
@@skabadoo255 That's solved with seasonal adjusted analysis. Also, it would still prove his point, because advertisers would still have confidence in the platform to deliver business their way.
Love you Thor!!!! Awesome to see two bright people discuss a platform they both care for.
you sucked lol
while I will never forgive you for cutting off Niarja and ruining my JF routes I agree we should keep having more awesome discussions for the betterment of the galaxy as a whole
Devin: there's a bomb over there
Pirate: not until i check myself there isn't
Devin: a hurricane is coming
Pirate: nah i can see the sun out my window
Lol
Retarded analogy.
Wait I love that this convo happened (haven't listened yet but I heard pirate talking about it the other day and was really hoping Devin and Him would talk)
Missed the second half of the convo, thanks for uploading this.
Round two of Devin losing his admiration for yet another content creator
Which was round 1
King Devin lets the jester beat the dead horse. then proceeds in lifting his kingdom by posting the whole darn thing. im so glad your back you rule with a kind iron fist.
22:30 it's like fighting someone who doesn't think human cause climate change is real. "since it hasn't effected me RIGHT NOW it must not be real"
It's a little different. The adpocalypse is more like a hurricane that people are complaining has hit their house and destroyed their roof before it has even made landfall or rained. He's saying "hey it might be termites or something else so research it because the hurricane isn't here." He's not saying the adpocalypse is 100% coming because he has seen journalists inflate issues before and until Devin has given him concrete evidence like saying Chase is pausing ads on the site, he hasn't heard any news site name a single ad that was pulling (honestly same here I just believed Devin before).
Climate change in this situation is more akin to Twitch handling bans and politics becoming worse and worse. The greenhouse gasses are getting crazier and crazier as the political content borders more and more on the extreme and Twitch isn't properly managing any of it. The adpocalypse is just a mega storm that's bigger than usual due to the climate change in twitch that threatens to destroy the infrastructure and trust of twitch island.
Here's what i don't like, there's no scenario where Thor is wrong, if there is an adpocolypse he'll say that he just told to wait, and if there isn't hes right, there's no scenario where he raises a white flag and say, I'm wrong guys
Jason would never admit he's wrong regardless. He'll just find a way to make it sound like he was right all along.
@@ReformedOrthodoxRabbiClinton he's already done it, his argument is framed in a way where there is no way he's unequivocally wrong
What PS is saying is that even if the Nuke is launched, you don't know if it will actually detonate upon impact.
I think it's better to explain it as "The nuke hit, but it didn't hit where I am. I will wait and see if the radiation will come downwind despite warnings as currently I do not see any immediate effects"
Also, he believes we should be seeing way more signs that a missile has been launched then what is currently present. I agree with this stance, we saw this with RUclips, that adpocalypse was not something that came out of nowhere.
@Coryameta Also, the YT apocalypse shifted the meta, it never killed the platform or anything like that.
more like, even if the nuke is launched it's not launched, cause he didn't see it. A PirateSchrodinger law, it's both launched and unlaunched util Thor observes it.
Pirate Software's partner manager is monkaShaking at this video 😂
If anyone found the debate frustrating, stick around for the second half, at which point the conversation stops being combative and they have an interesting discussion of the twitch ad platform. This was my first exposure to PirateSoftware, and I ultimately came away with thinking he's an insightful and intelligent guy, even though I do think Devin is correct, given his experience.
Timestamp?
@@Jackolantirn 1:09:40 onward roughly. Also, there are several more hours not included in this video (Devin said he's making a separate vid, or you can look up the twitch VOD) where PirateSoftware talks about his content strategy and how he went from ~400 avg viewers to 15000 in about a month, among other things.
Their conversation after the Twitch bits was even better. Was listening to these two for a long time last night.
Yeah, the rest of the comments surprised me. They're both just sharing their experience as businesses owners and agree that they're talking about different aspects of the same topic.
that was the best "wait, lemme get the popcorn" stream EVER !
54:53 PS says "...The point that I will always make is: There is a potential for this, let's wait and see..."
Devon specifically said that PS is coming from a place of authority and said "There is no Twitch Apocalypse" at the start of his post but everyone is going to take that as "There is no problem on Twitch" and PS just says that he "doesn't mean that and how is he supposed to know how anyone is going to take it" and "I said it plainly with no reading between the lines needed".
If he just said the quote I started this comment with in that post then all would be dandy, but him not saying it makes it seem like the inferred "There is no problem with Twitch" is correct when people read PS's post because many people don't know how straightforward he is and that is why I think a lot of people are having a negative view on his post.
I will also follow my own reasoning and state that I like PS, and a lot of people attack him for dumb reasons, but in this scenario I was annoyed that he didn't make it more clear in his post and knew people would make a lot of dumb negative comments toward him because of it.
Yeah even in his last statement on it after clarifying that 'nothing is happening' is not what he thinks, he goes back to 'nothing is happening' lol you can see Devon tempted to circle again but he lets it go.
It's time to double think about everything he says, cause it's not a mishap, it's done on purpose. Not the first time too. It feels like he's running a gigantic social experiment on his community and I'm weirded out that nobody notices it.
I feel like you would have to be very dumb to take "There is no Twitch Apocalypse" as "There is no problem on Twitch". It's like people are out to get him trying to read between the lines to find something that doesn't exist and crucify him over it.
devin the kinda guy to say 'don't you think you have a duty to communicate responsibly to your audience?' and then turn around and platform dan and be like 'yea I don't like how he communicates, but ya know what can you do'. like brotha eeewwwwww
As someone who was in the chat, that Dan guy was absolutely insufferable. I genuinely did not understand why he wasn't banned. The shit he was spewing was vile. I cannot imagine being friends with such a person who would come into my stream and just ruin the experience for hundreds of people with the most hateful, bigoted, crude behavior.
Made me so happy when I tuned into stream to see you both discussing this instead of malding at eachother on Twitter. Great example set!!
Yeah it's insane how they are on the same page with 90% of stuff and they both clearly understand where the other party is coming from and then comments are acting like one party is completely delusional.
I think Devin is right that majority will read it and think everything is fine. Thor is saying it correctly, but majority doesnt think as deeply as Thor about every word being said.
So its better to say "Winter is coming" instead of "There is no sign of winter" Not everyone have firewood ready and is okay with it coming within 24 hours warning.
One wants to use mental gymnastics and the other raw data.
I don't enjoy the way PS treats a "potential situation", like yes people obviously shouldn't jump ship out of irrational panic... but like, wouldn't you want to educate and prepare yourself for the worst case?
Nobody anticipates to get robbed or mugged at any given moment in public on a day to day, that's paranoia. It can still happen though, so why wouldn't you choose to be prepared for plausibility instead of being a victim to it?
the "ex-homeless guy" already forgot that for some people Twitch is their entire livelihood and they don't have spare money to invest and be fine in case they need to move. It's grossly irresponsible. Even if it would end up never happening, people definitely should be prepared for the possibility.
Yeah Thor clearly emphasized the importance of being on multiple platforms for this reason. He's well aware of the risk of it happening, he's just fed up with other streamers acting like they're already "getting robbed".
Can people realize that thor understands everything but he is against mass hysteria. For those comparing him to war deniers, his own career isn’t on the line. He is well prepared in the case of it happening. He simply doesn’t want to spread misinformation and cause hysteria.
Which is the responsable thing to do devin nashes job is to not only predict these outcomes but to warn people and i think both perspectives are fine.
Bingo, thank you
No he's a narcissist who cannot admit when he's wrong. Just like with Stop Killing Games, stop idolizing this guy, he's not an authority on anything but his own game.
@@JohnnyUriah No, that's not true. They literally reach a middle ground conclusion to their original conversation, they they bothsay their goodbyes and then * carry on for another 90 minutes * which is then cut short to end the vodeo so they'll have talked for longer. No chance any of these thingns happen if he's "a narcissist". It was a genuinely good convo
Devin (scientist) saying there is a huge Tsunami hitting the shore in 3 days time.
Thor on the beach, not currently seeing the effects saying we will see if the tsunami will hit me or will it weaken to the point where it's just a splash.
Im surprised thor isnt a gambling man cuz i would not take those odds 😂
Devin has made the claim Twitch is on its last leg how many times now???
@@Coryameta when was the last time twitch made a profit
pls respond
@dagowow Stop that, this has nothing to do with what I asked and I will not get thrown into this bullshit framing.
I ask again how many times has Devin claimed Twitch was on its last leg?
@@Coryametapls respond
@@Coryameta pls respond
lol PS says he speaks in the most direct way possible.... expect he does so in the most vague non direct way possible so that you can construe what he is saying any number of ways. He's not "speaking directly" he's being intentionally not direct in order to get across the message he wants while covering himself or he is one of the worst professional communicators of all time and has 0 ability to reflect on his own actions. Well we do know that the last part is true, hard to say for the rest
The logic itself doesn't extend reasonably to any arbitrary business decision.
I make life decisions based on my income. Part of my income is variable and based on data, but I can't base all of it on data alone. Let's say I get paid bi-weekly. If my boss came up to me and said, "I'm reducing your hourly rate to $0. If you come in tomorrow and work, you will be paid $0." No reasonable person would wait for the data on this. By virtue of it being bi-weekly, if your boss said this right after payday, you're effectively going to be missing 4 weeks of income. 4 weeks you could have used to get a different job. At week 3, you can absolutely say, "There is no data driven evidence, that what my boss told me was the truth. The data is telling me that my payrate hasn't changed." - And that's an objectively true statement, fair enough. It's still bad analysis. Not all analysis is data driven, unfortunately.
It seems he was saying he's already prepared through constant diversification and advocates for doing so against any possible event, rather than any specific event. Even Devin mentioned he's likely going to be fine because of his size. Devin's comment about this hurting midsized, less diversified streams seems to be something pirate isn't interested in (at this moment). This seems somewhat valid, as if creators followed best practices, they would be prepared as well, so ps has taken a stance on how to protect yourself. On the other hand, Devin seems to either have more empathy for these smaller channels, or believes they're crucial for the overall health of the platform and it's worth it to take a more active role in protecting them. If you're making decisions for your own business in an unpredictable market, these are both valid lenses. (At an argument level, I'm not adressing the tweet)
When i was an ad buyer, we thought pulling back too early might severely hurt performance for what seems like no reason. It's generally been a good idea to go all in while you can with extreme vigilance that things can change any second and respond accordingly. Secondarily, we watch for new opportunities to change what we're doing.
A river in Egypt
Underrated comment!
4:37
didnt Twitch stop doing the special contracts with top streamers in the 2021-2022 time frame?
as in they ended this practice, its just now partnership.
Nice of you to platform a small up and coming streamer ❤
Pirate is being a little too short sighted here. He agrees that you won't see anything until the ad spend for the current campaigns dry up. So, of course we'd expect to see little to no change in ad revenue NOW. His argument that there's no evidence from a streamer perspective is probably true, but it doesn't mean that the ad spend in the future isn't already down. He just doesn't know it yet. So, yes, he should care about this because it will effect his future revenue.
This doesn't mean to stop using Twitch, but to diversify a bit so you don't get hamstrung.
I'm going to try and distill this easily. Is there an adpocolypse on Twitch, the answer is neither knows. A few advertisers have pulled out, for whatever reason, will they go back who knows.
Could there be an ad drop, possibly, based on how many advertisers have left the platform and as the budget runs out.
The real problem as Thor pointed out is that Twitch doesn't enough information to predict certain things.
As for those streamers that have lost revenue, it is because certain tags automatically demonitize streamers. The advertisers have probably been bitching for awhile and now that they are pulling out that's when Twitch makes changes.
Thor is correct that for the majority of streamers there is no adpocolypse and yes we will see these same people bitch in January because they themselves don't know what they are doing nor do they track or keep statistics of their business to help improve it.
Devin is concerned that there will be an ad drop because he has clients that have decided to pull ads, but this is his business. He is looking at markets whereas Thor is looking at his specific business.
Thor is correct to only look at hard data when making decisions, it is something of an outpoint to assume something is there when it may not be, that's a bad way to run a business. He can predict trends once they start occuring, if he is doing his calculations on a weekly and hourly basis (stream times can be variable so one has to look at the total hours per week and calculate the number of ads played and the revenue earned for that week. Having statistics monthly is too slow for a business a lot can happen in a month while your waiting for information.
Devin statistics is how many clients does he have that are advertising where and since he is seeing them pull from Twitch he is able to predict a reduction in the future, not necessarily a large reduction but one nonetheless. I don't think Twitch will see it reliably until next March when ad revenues typically go up.
PirateSoftware is a guy who did QA at Blizzard, probably a couple of entry level Udemy classes on some popular programming languages, and is somehow known as a "dev bro." For those who don't know, you don't need any kind of education to do QA, nor Udemy, in fact. Any one of you can become a Dev Bro today! :D
Give him some credit, it's not like dad worked for Blizzard and got him that QA job.
Erm his dad literally worked at Blizzard dude did you know that?!
Stream title "Going to war with Iran in a hottub with Joe Biden"
Damn. Two of my top 10 channels chillin' together.
Piratesoft is so disingenuous wtf. Gets called out and tries to weasel his way into being right anyways. "I meant currently" "can you agree that I'm right about just currently". Any reasonable person would see his tweet and think he's talking about the overall health of twitch.
It's true. There is no Adpocalypse when Kai runs 12 ad's every 15 minutes back to back 🤣
So Pirate Software wouldn't leave his home knowing a category 5 hurricane was coming towards him and he's on beachfront property is what this sounds like.
He wouldn't leave his home, if random weather reporters and some neighbours started shouting there's a cat 5 hurricane coming. Not from the NHC, or the people out on the Sea where this supposedly is happening.
Well to be fair, it's not a great comparison because people can stream right up until they are getting no revenue, get hit with the revenue drop and they are not losing any more than they would of anyway, they would lose more by moving all their eggs to another basket early. He advocates people multi platform stream already so they should be prepared for a platform to take a hit always from his perspective, never put all your eggs in one basket.
Last night was a stream I would have gladly rewatched start to finish...sad to see it isnt available...hope they don't cut too much out of the reposts.
I'm 30 minutes in and agree on everything except for what to call the apocalypse.
Devin says advertisers pulling out shows an adpocalypse is coming and PS says a reduction in ad revenue shows an adpocalypse is here. Both can be true and it's a semantic fight.
Devin calls reports of the bomb dropping the adpocalypse and PS says the shockwave hitting is the adpocalypse.
“I don’t have the data so the data objectively doesn’t exist showing I’m wrong”
Wild
What does your data say, about what Twitch is doing to prevent it, minimize it and/or circumvent it?
Nothing. Does that mean that Twitch isn't doing anything? You'd be fkin stupid to think they are sitting on their ass whilst this is happening.
Thor doesn't say anything remotely close to this.
''There is no war in Ba Sing Se''
Having a conversation with different view points done right.
I believe that I've got the origin of the issue for the first half of this discussion
Devin is watching the current Ad events and garnering data to the future
TS is watching people saying that it's already happening (but it isn't).
It takes weeks for ad policies to change, so if Asmon was the trigger for the event, it wouldn't be happening right now.
Again, one is dealing with people saying that it's happening, and the other one is predicting based on what he's seeing from the other side (but that only will happen on the next weeks)
Move fast Nash good job uploading I'm watching the VOD right now. You need to update the youtube VOD play list.
The problem here is that Devin doesn’t give a comparison to the behavior of advertisers during other “Twitch scandals”. There wasn’t a comparable situation provided in the past with Twitch that proves that the current behavior of certain advertisers will significantly reduce their ad spend in the long run. This is Thor’s point. Without a actual model that is based on real data from the past, you have to use current data and you can’t necessarily trust your predictions
I wish more ppl would talk and listen and do this cause you both were coming to similar conclusions, just from very different perspectives.
I'm only a little bit of the way in but I'm getting frustrated no one has used the analogy of a tornado watch vs a tornado warning
For the first 40 minutes PS makes the argument that you can never say that someone is dying you can only say after the fact that someone has died because you never know they might not die some how, either your slightly wrong and they manage to live or you interfere and save them it doesn't matter, they weren't dying because afterwards we know that they didn't die.
yo!!! 2.5 hours??? let’s go dude
They are talking about different things. Cause and Effect.
Thor is talking about Effect. What people are claiming to be the symptoms of an Adpocalypse, aren't actually real (as of now).
Devin is talking about Cause. It doesn't matter if the symptoms still haven't showed up, the effect will for sure take place since the cause is real.
I understand both. I just think they should have come to this conclusion pretty early in the conversation.
They did. The problem at that point (and what they stay on for at least 30 minutes and I started tuning out after everything became circular), is Devin is saying Thor is mishandling how he is speaking to his audience by giving everyone a false sense of security by saying "There is no Adpocalypse." At the end of the day, it's argument over how something was said.
Really enjoying this conversation and really confused about the takes against Thor's viewpoint on the adpocalypse. Saying things like "he's denying that there's a bomb until it explodes" or "he wouldn't believe there's a hurricane until it hits his house" is a misread on what he actually thinks, which is that there *is* and advertising problem in general, but based on what he's researched and the data and information *he* has, it's not this huge adpocalypse yet.
100% I've never heard PS before, but I had no major disagreements in this conversation.
No the forest fire hasn't hit the big city yet. By the time it gets there it's already devoured the forest and surroundibg towns.
You rarely see two people on the Internet have a disagreement, talk to both of eachother to reconcile, and come to a similar conclusion in an intelligent and communicative manner.
"Advertisers have pulled ads" is information, not data. If that results in an actual fall in ad revenue, then that will be data.
PirateSoftware makes a very strong case for Dunning-Kruger, kinda sad was really starting to like his content.
Strictly speaking what pirate is saying is true. there seems to be no apocalypse RIGHT NOW. What devin is saying though is that putting out a tweet saying there is no apocalypse gives people who read it the impression that nothing is happening and everything is fine. to which he responds. "I don't care about what happens in the future, what my data shows is that there is no apocalypse, so my tweet is correct."
11, Devin lays it out in NO UNCERTAIN terms ads are being pulled, Thor goes on to deflect, thete dont waste your time.
there is no war in baa sing tse type shit fr
This was such an amazing conversation!!
What I don't get is why ad revenue for streamers not impacted by the tag bans isn't increasing right now. They should be getting a higher density of high CPM ads.
Because theres less ad money.. we already know atleast 11 of their large advertisers pulled, remember?
@@georgeforeman1097 yeah that's what I was thinking but I wanted both of them to address this in case there was another explanation.
Also, why does the politics category need to be demonitized? There's nothing wrong with politics being monetized. The issue is that there's a small group fo streamers that are immune to ToS violation consequences and therefore have pushed further and further into hyper extreme rhetoric and content. THAT is what needs to be demonetized/banned
There is no war in Ba Sing Se
Thor is engaging with this topic in the most cringe way possible. It honestly seems like he's intentionally acting obtuse in order to win an argument. His entire point rests on him saying "well we just can't know anything, cause it hasn't happened yet". Devin then tells him that this is certainly going to happen cause there are numerous advertisers that have paused ads. Thor's response remains the same, which is "well it hasn't hit me yet, so it's not real". Nice man! Super good faith engagement with the substance of the conversation!!!
Edit: Oh god, it gets even worse. Thor then makes the claim, "well I can't control how people will interpret my message, and technically I'm correct". Lil bro, if tons of people are misunderstanding your message, then maybe your message is just shit. Language is imprecise. Communication thru language always has tons of implications along with it. You'd never go ask a friend "hey, are you hungry" and then walk away when they answer yes. The obvious implication of that question is that you want to go eat with them. Your tweet is clearly implying that everything is perfectly OK with Twitch. There's evidence that it isn't. Choosing to ignore that evidence and then proclaiming that your statement is "technically" right is hollow and meaningless.
Wait a software engineer claiming authority outside their expertise and insisting they are still right?
Am I on one of my work meetings?
I completely agree with him about there’s a lot of influencers screaming ad apocalypse (or screaming wolf) but then when you look at their metrics it’s just false representation. I personally see under one influencers channel the same guy every once in a while talking about “twitch not paying him” to bait people to follow him but when you look at their metrics, it’s bought followers, bought viewers, no subs. So people are whining and crying wolf about these things 24/7 and it makes it hard to believe it when they scream it now.
And hes right about the adpocalypse isnt he? If your stopping pay to a huge chunk of creators, hot tub and political is 2 huge sections, just to pay other people cause 11 of your biggest advertisers dropped, that is an adpocalypse, right??
Lots of hate against Thor in the comments but I really don't think his perspective is that bad here. I think he's a bit off with how he sees the situation, but people are acting like he should be doing something drastically different when everything is hearsay at this point. Streamers lie to create drama all the time, and him being skeptical of that being the case here isn't illogical.
You platformed terrorists over here. Idiot of course there's an apocalypse coming. Elon sued twitch last night.
Stop avoiding the left wing fgtry that got you here.
42:00 -ish.. That's the longest way of agreeing to disagree... (skip past that if you don't want to listen to 40 minutes of different twists on the same argument)
I fucking love these convos
they are both right, and best way is middle ground
Blew Devins's mind! With the ban blocking sub renewals
I do think that there are the issues in the comments about Thor not being an expert here and speaking like he is one BUT I think that's really important because I think a lot of the people making headlines and drama about the apocalypse have even less of an idea and they are making claims as if they are sure of it. I believe Devin Nash for sure but I also think a lot of content creators are acting based off of either emotion and limited data OR they are acting in bad faith to cash in on drama and content.
2:13:10 yeah the 5% goes to processing...they originally wanted to do 100% but then figured out it would cost then like 20 cents a sub
Honestly, Devin's point is more frustrating than Thors. There is a point somewhere in the first 20 minutes in this video where Devin makes the bomb analogy and he says that the bomb has already hit but that the shockwave isn't there. Previous to that analogy, Thor asked specifically if Devin has seen a 20-30% revenue drop, to which he said no, but that it is coming. In this bomb analogy, how would someone know exactly how strong the shockwave is gonna be based on the explosion that they saw?
What if it was a 5% drop? (I don't think it going to be, but please follow the logic here) In this case, that wouldn't have been a ad apocalypse by Devin's own defined percentages. That is the problem. When you say that there is an adpocalypse coming, you are explicitly saying that a shock wave of X amount of strength is coming. And I don't think that it is possible to tell exactly by how much it is going to drop. We all expect something big, but we don't know. What if it is 18? That doesn't fit Devin's definition either, despite being a fairly noticeable number. We can go on and on with this.
I can't agree with thor's argument in the beginning of the video mostly because I trust devin's dataset more. And no, both can't be right at the same time.
He should switch from ferrets to ostriches.
Is PirateSoftware intentionally being obtuse?
So PirateSoftware never knew what he was talking about? Kill me
PirateSoftware moved to BlueSky and said it was better than X 😂🤣
Oh man. I'm a huge fan of PirateSoftware so this is disheartening. Because he's just... dumb here. Like he's being deliberately obtuse. "Is ad revenue down right now?" "Well no. That's not how it works. Once it happens it takes x amount of time for it to show for streamers." "So there's absolutely no change to ads on Twitch then." "Um, no. There is. A change has happened, and people will see the effect of that change x amount of time afterwards." "I have not noticed a change yet, therefore no change has happened." LIke... what? The shockwave is the perfect analogy. You can see the explosion, and the shockwave hasn't hit you yet. But Pirate's response is "Being able to see the explosion isn't relevant data. The only relevant data is the shockwave because that's what hits me personally." Just dumb.