Between war and peace, autocracy and democracy: where is the South Caucasus heading?

Georgia, long praised as a pioneer of democracy in the South Caucasus, recently passed an "agent law" based on the Russian model. The government is thus putting civil society under pressure - despite explicit warnings from its Western supporters. The political views of oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, who dominates the ruling party, are deeply authoritarian. This was recently revealed during one of his rare public appearances. Pro-European, democratic forces in Georgian society see the country's EU integration in grave danger and are sounding the alarm.
In Armenia, the authoritarian old elites, who were replaced by the 2018 revolution, are seeking a return to power with the help of Russia. They are relying on dissatisfaction with the policies of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. His government appears overwhelmed in juggling Russian coercion and European partnership policy and in its efforts to reach a peace agreement with Azerbaijan.
In Azerbaijan, the authoritarian President Ilham Aliyev is exercising his power unchallenged following his victory in the Nagorno-Karabakh war and the expulsion of the Armenians and is curtailing the remaining freedoms in the country at will. At the same time, Azerbaijan is working on its international image as host of COP29 in order to attract Western investors in the energy sector.
In this context, in a panel discussion with experts from Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, we were looking for answers as to what opportunities exist for democratic development and stable peace in the medium term and what role the European Union plays in the region.
With:
Robin Wagener, Member of the German Bundestag, Coordinator of the Federal Government for Inter-Societal Cooperation with the Southern Caucasus, the Republic of Moldova and Central Asia (tbc)
Andranik Shirinyan, Yerevan, Freedom House
Sopo Verzdeuli, Tbilisi, analytical platform Komentari
Participant from Azerbaijan (tbc)
Moderation: Walter Kaufmann, Head of Department Eastern and South Eastern Europe, Heinrich Böll Foundation