The Kwan pick almost won me my fantasy league, and turned me on to one of my new favorite players. Thanks Bailey, if the Wander Boys win the league next season I'll make sure to mention you in my victory speech.
Should add a team you overall like and don't like to each video as well. Not necessarily indicative of a specific player, but the season-long performance of the entire team.
injuries make that a huge crapshoot. unless you have a bold prediction like “the white sox will finish over 10 games back” or “seattle will win 90 games” there’s not a lot to say about a team that literal dozens of outlets haven’t already said in more depth. since the foolish baseball/bailey brand is so analytically driven i’m fine with it staying player focused as that allows him to paint with less broad strokes.
Your Kwan pick was honestly one thing that got me excited about this season for the Guards, as I hadn't seen much of his Quackron Ducks season in 2021. Kwan's first week of the season OBP proved your pick of him by itself. It also validates a lot of your picks because you value both feel, and under the hood stats, in similar description to how some scouts looked at Kwan, and how Cleveland's baseball writers now rave about him!
When I had the Guards at 90 wins in preseason, that success hinged much on my idea that Kwan and Richie Palacios were going to be on the opening day roster and both be a kind of missing recipe in front of and behind Jose and Franmil. Thought Kwan would be a staple #2 in the order and Palacios’ bat would play nice behind Franmil. Franmil and Palacios were not contributors the the teams’ success at all lol
Look, I'm not saying Bailey is personally responsible for Steven Kwan's success... But Bailey is personally responsible for Steven Kwan's success and I'll die on that hill.
Cleveland did incredibly well for a team full of basically kids with the 3rd lowest payroll in baseball. Future looks bright for them. Kwan and Spongebob were hitting like they'd been there before in the postseason.
Bailey - you got to check out Ke’Bryan Hayes for your hitters to like next year. He battled injuries this year and recently said that when he actually was playing, he was playing through a painful back issue. Despite that, he was 85th percentile in average exit velo. If he gets right this off-season, he’s gonna break out. That’s not even to mention his defense - 99th percentile in OAA and literally tied for 1st in defensive WAR on Baseball Reference. The man put up 4.3 bWAR with an 87 OPS+
there’s a lot to give you pause in his numbers, too. some of the worst barrel, ISO/xISO, slugging, and expected slugging rates among qualified hitters since 2021. bats around .200 against breaking and offspeed. he’s been pretty much the same hitter for two years, and that’s been good for 85-90 wRC+ across a pretty large sample size. his glove is world-class, and he more than earns his spot in the lineup, but it’s a “hitters i like” list, not “position players i like”
I grew up about 20 minutes away from Anderson and played against him in high school. Dude was absolutely disgusting even with a relatively basic pitch combination. Very sad for how this year went for him, I’m always rooting big for him and hope next year can be more like 2021. Thank you for the great video as always, Bailey!
It's wild that we even thought Kwans contact approach wouldn't translate like, yea a guy who NEVER SWINGS AT BAD PITCHES, slaps the ball around and never strikes out won't translate to the majors. Dude is an absolute stud.
@@78TBGAMER we kinda need someone who will do great when the rest of the team isn't and kelenic seems to be the opposite of that. he was doing great while the m's were stalling. ive been defending him for two years but i don't see myself doing it next year.
@@stevendiaz7633 you don’t move on from a guy you designated as the savior of the franchise after two rough years unless there are serious personal issues. They’ll stick with him as long as they have club control
"But I'm gonna keep it real with ya--I'm _starving_ out here" - This is the candor and candidness baseball reporting so sorely lacks. Good on ya, Bailey.
Ya know, I like how even tho you’re part of Braves country you still show highlights or Braves players striking out when discussing pitchers. Just nice to see you not be a biased fan in that regard
Alex Cobb vs. Patrick Sandoval is such a mystery. They had almost identical numbers in every respect, just Cobb gave up a few more hits and Sandoval walked a few more guys. Damn near same number of baserunners allowed, yet Cobb’s ERA is almost a run higher. Baseball is weird
@@DooDooDaddyTV i mean i can't really see why he wouldn't honestly. i'm saying this as a white sox fan, so you know i'm unbiased lol. he's got great hitting and stellar fielding, no reason not to have him top 3. something in his favor over guys like rutschman is his longevity, and something he's got over pena is consistency. he won't win because jrod had a better peak and played for a similar amount of time (+ HR derby lol), but i wouldn't even be mad if he ended up pulling an upset somehow
You were pretty spot on with your dislikes. It is much more difficult to pick players that’ll drop off than to predict a player that is doing well who will keep doing well.
I think your Tyler Stephenson pick deserves two thumbs up. His momentum for the season was so good but kept getting stopped by injuries. When he would come back from the IL he would pick right back up like nothing happened.
I'm remaining cautiously optimistic about Jared Kellenic next season. Those numbers are ROUGH, don't get me wrong, and although the isolated numbers from September/October are better, he was also decent last September before being abysmal this spring. All that being said, the main reason I'm not writing him off is that slowly, steadily, his plate discipline is improving. It's hard to tell just from looking at stat sheets, but as September and October progressed, he was swinging at garbage less and less. His strikeout rate remains bad, to be clear, but even over the course of the playoffs his discipline was visibly improving. Also, he hits a lot of grounders, and although they're hit hard, they're usually pulled straight into the shift. He's gonna benefit a lot from the shift being banned. So, yeah. Wouldn't bet money on him being great next year, but I think he could manage good.
Damn, first time I've ever seen Bailey's face and I gotta say. The voice doesn't match the face I had in my head. But man you are awesome as shit!! Keep up the dope ass baseball content!!!
I just discovered your channel, so I have not seen your 2022 predictions or your videos from earlier years yet. If you want another chance at a Bailey next year, look at lefthanded pitcher Bailey Falter of the Phillies. He got a few starts when other starters were injured or ineffective, with mixed but improving results, except when facing the Braves.
5 hitters I like for 2023 are Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. I may have gone a bit conservative on the picks though.
I hope Adley makes the list next year, him or Henderson. I also think that F. Bautista makes an even bigger splash next year if he can get his fastball more under control this offseason.
I don't think Adley is a good candidate for a breakout prediction because he had a great rookie season and looks to continue performing well next year. Pretty straightforward expectations for him.
you mightve made a video about it already but i think a great video idea would be about how good the yelli and belli mvp race was and how much they fell off shortly after. how often do they make commercials about the MVP race? (good attempt at marketing baseball for once)
Truth be told, Seeing Ian Anderson's Decline this Season, and knowing that you picked him as a Dislike, Really Pains Me. His 10-6 Record showed that he still had flashes of what he could be, but to see him demoted to the Minors and have his Season End on the IL made me question if the Braves... and myself... pulled the Demotion Trigger too soon. I doubt he would've been effective at all in the Postseason had he remained in the Majors, but considering his demotion happened in August, I wonder what could've been had Atlanta given him another 2 Months to prove that he had not left his best years behind in 2021. As for Donaldson, I still think that part of his decline has to do with OVERBEARING expectations that the Yankees 'Faithful' likes to throw on their Players. I mean, consider the Players that the Yankees have dumped only for them to rebound when they left the Big Apple: Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, Luke Voit, Gio Urshella, etc. So Really, I feel as if Donaldson is just another statistic in the 'Unreasonable Expectations for Yankees Players' bandwagon. Lastly, for Soler, I hate to see him struggle in a Marlins Uniform AND get shut down for the Season due to injury. However, this could be a boon for him soon, if the Marlins decide to sell him. He's owed $15M in the 2nd Year of his Contact, and I'm confident that Miami might get cutthroat with him if he doesn't perform. Braves Country IS potentially looking at swapping a DH out.... Overall, I'd say you did a pretty good job this year. A lot of your picks were great, surprising and disappointing, but I don't think any of your original takes were egregious. Keep up the Great Work Man! Always love these kinds of Videos.
Great video as always. I think the Kelenic pick wasnt very courageous at all. If anything, it would have been courageous to predict him to do well. He was really really bad last year, and i dont think he'll ever work out there. Look for him to absolutely break out in another system though, SF STL NYY or KCR is my guess based on not really anything
@@RiMan27 I mean its hard not compare him to Julio obviously, but what if in another 2-3 years he turns into JP Crawford value? Still a great piece to have on a team.
Honestly I know that he’s not a rookie anymore but I feel like a strata deserves to be on the list of breakouts the man 20 something RBIs last year played very little team out this year as a full-time second baseman and killed his is the nominee for the silver slugger award I mean can’t complain right
The Kwan pick almost won me my fantasy league, and turned me on to one of my new favorite players. Thanks Bailey, if the Wander Boys win the league next season I'll make sure to mention you in my victory speech.
I went on a 12 game winning streak to win my league
Kwan almost won you a league how? Cmon man stop it
Funny you say that because he was the reason I won mine
@@damonsantore2345 go look at his stats for the last month of the season
@@damonsantore2345 his stats would show how
*Bragging to his high school friends*
“Yeah I pretty much nailed Ian Anderson”
Should add a team you overall like and don't like to each video as well. Not necessarily indicative of a specific player, but the season-long performance of the entire team.
This is a stellar idea.
Seconded
100 likes already, I feel special. C'mon Bailey, PEER PRESSURE PEER PRESSURE
injuries make that a huge crapshoot. unless you have a bold prediction like “the white sox will finish over 10 games back” or “seattle will win 90 games” there’s not a lot to say about a team that literal dozens of outlets haven’t already said in more depth. since the foolish baseball/bailey brand is so analytically driven i’m fine with it staying player focused as that allows him to paint with less broad strokes.
@@ARMTOAST seattles won 90 games back to back so that prediction isn’t horrible lol
Nah you deserve at least three thumbs for Steven Kwan man. Top prospect analysts missed him!
Your Kwan pick was honestly one thing that got me excited about this season for the Guards, as I hadn't seen much of his Quackron Ducks season in 2021. Kwan's first week of the season OBP proved your pick of him by itself. It also validates a lot of your picks because you value both feel, and under the hood stats, in similar description to how some scouts looked at Kwan, and how Cleveland's baseball writers now rave about him!
When I had the Guards at 90 wins in preseason, that success hinged much on my idea that Kwan and Richie Palacios were going to be on the opening day roster and both be a kind of missing recipe in front of and behind Jose and Franmil. Thought Kwan would be a staple #2 in the order and Palacios’ bat would play nice behind Franmil. Franmil and Palacios were not contributors the the teams’ success at all lol
Look, I'm not saying Bailey is personally responsible for Steven Kwan's success...
But Bailey is personally responsible for Steven Kwan's success and I'll die on that hill.
Kwan’s post season was nuts! He seriously could not get out by the Yankees. Super fun to watch and hard to root against. I’m optimistic for Cleveland!
His defense was amazing during the season.
Cleveland did incredibly well for a team full of basically kids with the 3rd lowest payroll in baseball. Future looks bright for them. Kwan and Spongebob were hitting like they'd been there before in the postseason.
Bailey - you got to check out Ke’Bryan Hayes for your hitters to like next year. He battled injuries this year and recently said that when he actually was playing, he was playing through a painful back issue. Despite that, he was 85th percentile in average exit velo. If he gets right this off-season, he’s gonna break out. That’s not even to mention his defense - 99th percentile in OAA and literally tied for 1st in defensive WAR on Baseball Reference. The man put up 4.3 bWAR with an 87 OPS+
He definitely is gonna break out next year. He’s shown flashes of elite hitting before and his defense is always elite
there’s a lot to give you pause in his numbers, too. some of the worst barrel, ISO/xISO, slugging, and expected slugging rates among qualified hitters since 2021. bats around .200 against breaking and offspeed. he’s been pretty much the same hitter for two years, and that’s been good for 85-90 wRC+ across a pretty large sample size.
his glove is world-class, and he more than earns his spot in the lineup, but it’s a “hitters i like” list, not “position players i like”
Is it just me or is Hayes not an under the radar guy at all. Like I'm sure bailey is already very well aware of what he's been doing.
He could definitely have an all star worthy year next season. The pirates need it.
problem is he mostly hits the ball on the ground. if he figures out how to get better launch angle, watch out
I grew up about 20 minutes away from Anderson and played against him in high school. Dude was absolutely disgusting even with a relatively basic pitch combination. Very sad for how this year went for him, I’m always rooting big for him and hope next year can be more like 2021. Thank you for the great video as always, Bailey!
Great video. Steven Kwan had one of the best rookie seasons of all time! Like top 25 I think. Incredible year
It's wild that we even thought Kwans contact approach wouldn't translate like, yea a guy who NEVER SWINGS AT BAD PITCHES, slaps the ball around and never strikes out won't translate to the majors. Dude is an absolute stud.
This man is the Scott the Woz of baseball and I cannot mean that more positively
Kelenic didn't bat over .180 in any single month this season. As a Wisconsin guy, I'm rooting hard for him but what a rough start to his career.
He did do better in Sept/Oct. Before that his OPS was .453. In Sept/Oct he had a .713 OPS.
@@78TBGAMER we kinda need someone who will do great when the rest of the team isn't and kelenic seems to be the opposite of that. he was doing great while the m's were stalling. ive been defending him for two years but i don't see myself doing it next year.
He has been terrible in the pros. He looks confused. His defense was okay during the playoffs. I would move on from him.
@@stevendiaz7633 you don’t move on from a guy you designated as the savior of the franchise after two rough years unless there are serious personal issues. They’ll stick with him as long as they have club control
@@brianhill2171 agreed and for his sake I hope the kid figures it out
Steven Kwan is 4 thumbs up, as I am also giving up 2
"But I'm gonna keep it real with ya--I'm _starving_ out here" - This is the candor and candidness baseball reporting so sorely lacks. Good on ya, Bailey.
I would like to start a GoFundMe to get Bailey more thumbs for a more accurate rating system.
ngl as a Rockies fan I wheezed when I saw you picked Austin Gomber like I totally forgot you did
I'm so happy that Kwan did so well this year. I'm happy Oregon State got him and Adley a CWS win.
Ya know, I like how even tho you’re part of Braves country you still show highlights or Braves players striking out when discussing pitchers. Just nice to see you not be a biased fan in that regard
Thank you for Kwan!!!!!!!!!! Drafted him with my last pick and it was the greatest value pick of all time
Alex Cobb vs. Patrick Sandoval is such a mystery. They had almost identical numbers in every respect, just Cobb gave up a few more hits and Sandoval walked a few more guys. Damn near same number of baserunners allowed, yet Cobb’s ERA is almost a run higher. Baseball is weird
as a guards fan, that kwan pick stresses me out pre-season bc as a cleveland fan, i was worried about a jinx, so thank goodness i was wrong
Kwan better finish top 3 in ROTY and win a gold glove this year. This dude was INSANE to watch. Always on base and always making a play in LF.
it'll probably be jrod, him, and adley
@@broncos435 Perfectly fine for me! As long as he's top 3
@@DooDooDaddyTV i mean i can't really see why he wouldn't honestly. i'm saying this as a white sox fan, so you know i'm unbiased lol. he's got great hitting and stellar fielding, no reason not to have him top 3. something in his favor over guys like rutschman is his longevity, and something he's got over pena is consistency. he won't win because jrod had a better peak and played for a similar amount of time (+ HR derby lol), but i wouldn't even be mad if he ended up pulling an upset somehow
The Javier pick aged well just the wrong year
The FAT L Bailey took on his Cristian Javier pick is definitely balanced by hitting on Ian Anderson taking a big step back this year
You were pretty spot on with your dislikes. It is much more difficult to pick players that’ll drop off than to predict a player that is doing well who will keep doing well.
I think your Tyler Stephenson pick deserves two thumbs up. His momentum for the season was so good but kept getting stopped by injuries. When he would come back from the IL he would pick right back up like nothing happened.
Steven Kwan I predicted would breakout this year. All my research is based off the fact I played against him I'm high-school haha
I'm remaining cautiously optimistic about Jared Kellenic next season. Those numbers are ROUGH, don't get me wrong, and although the isolated numbers from September/October are better, he was also decent last September before being abysmal this spring.
All that being said, the main reason I'm not writing him off is that slowly, steadily, his plate discipline is improving. It's hard to tell just from looking at stat sheets, but as September and October progressed, he was swinging at garbage less and less. His strikeout rate remains bad, to be clear, but even over the course of the playoffs his discipline was visibly improving. Also, he hits a lot of grounders, and although they're hit hard, they're usually pulled straight into the shift. He's gonna benefit a lot from the shift being banned. So, yeah. Wouldn't bet money on him being great next year, but I think he could manage good.
Bailey just don't miss 🤷♂️
Other than the 5 misses in 2022
@@teleduff1037 we ignore those
Imagine what the Twins could’ve been this year with a healthy rotation of Ryan, Ober, Maeda, Gray and Paddack
I said "what the fuck was that" out loud at that slider at 1:00. Also, will we be getting a Big Boy Baseball Awards Pt. 2 this year?
“imma keep it real with ya, im STARVING out here” was hilarious oh my god 11:21
Kwan hit was pretty crazy always enjoy seeing these
I’ve been waiting on this video since the playoffs started
Giants fan here, Alex Cobb was ridiculously unlucky last year and the poor defense absolutely contributed to that.
Kwan would almost certainly be rookie of the year if not for Rutschman and JRod, man was a beast
Ober solidarity, Bailey. Give yourself a thumbs up!
the Kwan was officially hit
Just watched that video yesterday to see how it came out. You’re just a guru like that
Don't be so hard on yourself, I used this video and your Foolish 50 in my fantasy draft and I won the league, so thank you!
Now I need you to do a video of what your TAR (thumbs above replacement) is
Damn, first time I've ever seen Bailey's face and I gotta say. The voice doesn't match the face I had in my head. But man you are awesome as shit!! Keep up the dope ass baseball content!!!
Have to admire the transparency!
your Pat Sandoval pick made me go after him in fantasy. I was able to flip him in my keeper league for Bryan Reynolds too
I just discovered your channel, so I have not seen your 2022 predictions or your videos from earlier years yet. If you want another chance at a Bailey next year, look at lefthanded pitcher Bailey Falter of the Phillies. He got a few starts when other starters were injured or ineffective, with mixed but improving results, except when facing the Braves.
Steven kwan became my favourite player so quick
Was I the only one who was looking forward to this video all year?
I got Kwans autograph he was a really humble guy even when he was tearing it up love that guy
5 hitters I like for 2023 are Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. I may have gone a bit conservative on the picks though.
It feels like almost every baseball youtuber is a braves fan
I hope Adley makes the list next year, him or Henderson. I also think that F. Bautista makes an even bigger splash next year if he can get his fastball more under control this offseason.
I don't think Adley is a good candidate for a breakout prediction because he had a great rookie season and looks to continue performing well next year. Pretty straightforward expectations for him.
Finally, someone actually picked Kwan
you mightve made a video about it already but i think a great video idea would be about how good the yelli and belli mvp race was and how much they fell off shortly after. how often do they make commercials about the MVP race? (good attempt at marketing baseball for once)
Truth be told, Seeing Ian Anderson's Decline this Season, and knowing that you picked him as a Dislike, Really Pains Me.
His 10-6 Record showed that he still had flashes of what he could be, but to see him demoted to the Minors and have his Season End on the IL made me question if the Braves... and myself... pulled the Demotion Trigger too soon.
I doubt he would've been effective at all in the Postseason had he remained in the Majors, but considering his demotion happened in August, I wonder what could've been had Atlanta given him another 2 Months to prove that he had not left his best years behind in 2021.
As for Donaldson, I still think that part of his decline has to do with OVERBEARING expectations that the Yankees 'Faithful' likes to throw on their Players.
I mean, consider the Players that the Yankees have dumped only for them to rebound when they left the Big Apple:
Sonny Gray, Jordan Montgomery, Luke Voit, Gio Urshella, etc.
So Really, I feel as if Donaldson is just another statistic in the 'Unreasonable Expectations for Yankees Players' bandwagon.
Lastly, for Soler, I hate to see him struggle in a Marlins Uniform AND get shut down for the Season due to injury.
However, this could be a boon for him soon, if the Marlins decide to sell him. He's owed $15M in the 2nd Year of his Contact, and I'm confident that Miami might get cutthroat with him if he doesn't perform. Braves Country IS potentially looking at swapping a DH out....
Overall, I'd say you did a pretty good job this year. A lot of your picks were great, surprising and disappointing, but I don't think any of your original takes were egregious.
Keep up the Great Work Man! Always love these kinds of Videos.
Christian Javier was 2nd in K/9 in the AL behind Ohtani this season. He's been a vital piece in Houston's rotation.
You were both fair and entertaining. Thanks for that.
Bailey we need a new video for the clutchest home run in postseason history according to win probability added
this is exactly what i needed to start my day
Bailey you totally missed an opportunity for a Love Sosa joke when you covered Edmundo
Been waiting for this
2:34 LMAO i thought the catcher smacked the bat out of his hand
TY FOR THE FANTASY POINTS ON SANDY!!!
FOOLISH BAILEY END OF SEASON CONTENT LETS GOOOOO
Great video as always. I think the Kelenic pick wasnt very courageous at all. If anything, it would have been courageous to predict him to do well. He was really really bad last year, and i dont think he'll ever work out there. Look for him to absolutely break out in another system though, SF STL NYY or KCR is my guess based on not really anything
You were on Kwan super early. Didn't you mention him in one of your minor league stat sheet scouting videos last year?
Real Oregon State Baseball fans know Kwan is the legend
Saw that Pujols homer off Gomber and it was beautiful. Really sad to see Gomber struggle after he left St Louis
The Arenado trade looks like an even bigger loss for the Rockies than everyone thought at the time, and that's really saying something.
Damn- I wanted you to be so wrong about Jared Kelenic. I still think JK has the physical tools to be a plus major leaguer.
I agree, just needs to get out of his own head…
@@RiMan27 I mean its hard not compare him to Julio obviously, but what if in another 2-3 years he turns into JP Crawford value? Still a great piece to have on a team.
HE DOES!!!
Bailey you’re great wish you still played for the braves they needed you in the post season
you should definitely do a pre season umpire rating
You should’ve given Soler a no grade. A 95 ops+ in only 72 games does not warrant a thumbs down
4:15 "Maybe I'm just the number one hater in Major League Baseball."
Gotta counter the positivity in Foolish Baseball somehow.
Hey Bailey, was wondering if you would consider doing a team standings prediction before each season.
Where are 2022s Big Baseball Boy Awards?
FOOLISH 50 REACTION SOON LETS GOOO
You missed the Opportunity to say "I feel Kwan-ored". 😆
When will foolish 50 come out???
Cute video Foolish
This guy has ESPN baseball analyst written all over him. Well done!
Nice work...we call him Killer Kwan
How can anyone trust a man who hates the mariners
as a Reds fan, I can't wait to see how a healthy Tyler Stephenson does this coming season!
Sosa played good in Philly though.. if he played like that all season, this would have been a good pick.
Honestly I know that he’s not a rookie anymore but I feel like a strata deserves to be on the list of breakouts the man 20 something RBIs last year played very little team out this year as a full-time second baseman and killed his is the nominee for the silver slugger award I mean can’t complain right
Hey Bailey. When do you react to the foolish 50?
How does Bailey keep looking younger?
Bailey why didn’t you just check all of Sosa’s batted balls? You would’ve seen his max exit velo was a major outlier
You should've checked Average Exit Velocity instead of Max EV for all hitters in the first place.
Kwan became one of my fave players because of you. Love supporting asian americans in baseball.
Donaldson just doesn't look as scary without a beard
I'm just assuming that's why he fell off offensively
Oh the Javier pick was dismal
Kwan Academy on foolish baseball
Kwan reminds me of Pedroia alot actually.
O'Neil Cruz big breakout next year??
I really wished you were wrong about jarred, i think he still can do great things one day (watch my short kelenic edit please)
2:47 pause😂
Steven Kwan such an op pick
4:15 I thought Josh was the #1 Hader in baseball?
I give this video one thumbs up
Sandoval is going to be so so so very nasty next year