Tesla's "Extraordinary Break" / Rivian's New EV's / Panasonic's 4680's ⚡️
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- Опубликовано: 13 май 2024
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Bill and Brad: • Ep4. Tesla FSD 12, Imi...
Lars and Franz: / 1765830686785872176
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00:00 - FSD 12
3:43 - Tesla Leaves (Toyota)
6:36 - Alarming Data
8:11 - AK47 vs. CT
8:42 - Malaysia
9:13 - Retroactive Tariffs
11:47 - Giga Berlin
12:44 - Panasonic Considers Expansion
14:25 - Avoids Class Action
15:04 - Rivian R2
22:47 - Lars and Franz
22:58 - TSLA Stock Today
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*Disclaimer: I was a financial advisor with Edward Jones for a number of years. That said, I am not your financial advisor so please always do your own research and do not base your investment decisions on my videos alone.
#TeslaNews #RivianR2 #TeslaStock 
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Just one of those days, thanks for your patience!! What'd you think about the Rivian news?! I like the R2 but not really a fan of the design of the R3. Also, don't forget to check out DeleteMe if you're intersted here: joindeleteme.com/electrified - I'm guessing if you're a man and you're married your wife would love this one lol
Going through a mental divorce granted by judge ruled on grounds of failure to appear
Extra good episode.
I agree on the R3. It looks like the yugo came back. Yuck.
You are forgetting that it is not about Rivian vs Tesla, the ICE car market is too large just for the two. Just the Toyota RAV-4 and Corolla are formidable. Tesla and China paved the way for other automakers to catch up on more affordable EVs, the R2 platform is not too impressive. Lastly, the R2 two years from now would be too little too late as Tesla would have announced the next gen platform in 2025 and deliveries several months after.
How much progress has Tesla made on Dry cathode?
The FSD section was spot on. Imagine someone thinking they will catch up to a company whose cars can be corrected with natural human speech. NEXT LEVEL
actually end-to-end training is way easier to imitate than their previous approaches. Not only far less code to write, debug and test but data gathering and labelling is trivial by comparison, because instead of having people painstakingly label every road marking, street sign, construction works etc in hundreds of thousands of images, all you need to do is feed the human drivers action (accelerate / brake / turn wheel etc) as the model targets. In effect, Tesla has saved everybody else a bunch of time, since they can go for end-to-end without trying any of their previous approaches.
@@neaorin also with E2E the training system can define its own internal semantics instead of translating everything to what we like to see. Models do better this way as weights are more optimized
The AK-47 is an assault rifle shooting a larger high velocity military round. Tesla stated it would stop a 9mm round, and even shot it with a 0.45 caliber Tommy Gun. Never said it would stop large caliber rifles or high velocity military ammo. So it's just silly click bait by that guy.
I’m in Australia, It costs me over $100 to fill a Hyundai i30N, I love the car but I’m tired of being gouged at the bowser so an EV will be my next car.
It’s the total cost of ownership. Keep your car for 200k the cost per km driven including depreciation. Victoria has a 2 cents per km road tax. Also power is not free. You need 15 kw per 100km of electricity. If you have to pay 50 cents per kWh that is $7.5 plus ev road tax that is $9.50 per 100 km pus the EV suffer very high depreciation. Toyota hybrids use 3 to 5 lt per 100 km so approximately same cost without the worrying about expensive batteries needing to be replaced at about 10 years. So it’s a lot of research required. EV as a taxi is excellent. EV for retired person with own solar panels excellent. EV as high performance sports car excellent. However better to hire one for a while to see if you can live with it. To change America to EV you realistically need to build 20 times the current electricity grid. I’m including trucks here. Very complicated issue. Check the videos of people changing back to ice cars. So using feelings on what is best just really do your homework. Get vehicle that gets the job done economically. Including the finance payments per month.
@@davidwright1752 The high court quashed the road tax as it was un-constitutional, the Vic govt has to pay it back, I understand where you’re coming from but I tick a couple of your excellent boxes
suggesting that EVs depreciate faster than ice. r fraudulent. And are you suggesting maintenance cost is higher come on get real@@davidwright1752
Most of his claims are not valid@@JonNewell
The best strategy is to get a hybrid plug-in with 100 kilometer electric only range so you only have to turn the combustion engine on occasionally when you do long-distances@@davidwright1752
No apologies needed. You are doing the heavy lifting for the rest of us. Appreciate all you do and the untold time it takes to produce.
appreciate this greatly familia ❤
“Pull a ‘rabbit’ out of a hat” 🤣 The Rivian R3 looks like a 1982 VW Rabbit!
FCAI's statement, translated:
'Gas car prices will rise ' = buy now
'EV prices will fall' = wait to buy
Besides being false, as demand will fall for gas cars, it has a clearly implied message, which is in support of the gas car industry.
In the US gas prices low electrical charging prices high
I don't care. Next car I buy is an EV once it can get delivered.
@danharold3087 we know. (I'm an Aussie)
Also, because of the 'corruption' here (lobbying is non-transparent and completely legal), the fossil fuel industry runs the electricity system, keeping prices artificially stupidly high and slowing introduction of renewables as hard as it can.
They all forget the world is running out of oil in less than 47 years.
@@gregbailey45 "Dark money is a term used to describe the fossil fuel industry's use of secretive donations to non-profit groups. These donations can help utilities increase electricity prices, hinder solar schemes, and influence elections. Dark money can also fund misinformation about clean energy, promote nonrenewable resources, and undermine the transition to renewable energy"
Given how an ‘odd day’ might look at my house, I wish to extend my empathy to you, Dillon!
😂😂 haha my man - just a part of life, makes us grateful for the "regular" or good days!
That Rivian R3 looks great
Good take on Rivian. Reducing costs though ? Why didn't Rivian go with 4680, rather than a NEW form factor (4695)? Panasonic are close to manufacturing 4680s - and I believe it took them longer than they thought. (And who knows, when Tesla is ramped up to excess on 4680, Rivian could benefit.) Also, about the "Rivian adventure charging network". Why don't they team up with Tesla, and pay Tesla to install " Adventure Superchargers" ? That reduces the effort, cost and maintenance for Rivian. They need every bit of help they can get.
Just to be different from the big T.
@@gregbailey45 Egos on the line - we must be different ! But being different, in engineering terms, with untried tech can be costly, expensive and pricey...
Rivian is stupid not putting the charge port on the the right front or left rear. This would enable easier use of Tesla Superchargers.
But it is designed to use Rivian superchargers. They will install thousands across the country, at just over $1 million per installation. Rivian has money to burn for decades. It is in the "plan".
@@davidbeppler3032they literally only have about 9b in the bank and are burning 1.5b per quarter. So no, they do not have money for decades. They have money for about 7-8 quarters at best. Unless they raise capital
@@stevenvillarreal226 Clearly you do not know the plan. They have one. Nobody would spend that much money without one. They would go to jail for defrauding investors.
@@davidbeppler3032 I never said they didn’t have a plan. But their roadmap is clear. Cash burn is killing them while still losing $40k per vehicle on their high end trucks. So they have to turn a profit on those so they can start selling cars at $45k starting price. I really hope they can do it because their vehicles are awesome. But the road ahead will be tough
Agreed 100% on Rivian. Good luck to them, they need it badly.
I've come to really care that they succeed, love to see Lucid survive in some form too, but CEO doesn't seem to expect it based on his own salary.
Peter Rawlinson is *already cashing out.*
Rivian only needs about $500 billion to succeed. Anyone want to loan them the money?
Amen, best of luck!
Who pays $120k for a new Cybertruck and shoots holes in it? Same for people that trash it in the desert or drive it up to the windows in water.
You can't legislate for stupid.
Just for the sake of click baits! They have small brain syndrome 😂
What harm did it do? That ain't a Ford. The Cybertruck is fine.
It's not about the harm it's about the childlike silliness. @@davidbeppler3032
RUclipsrs who make more than 120k on their videos. It's called capitalism.
I had a MK2 GTI. The R3 is very nostalgic to me. Love that design.
Tesla has never stated the the CT is bullet proof against high power rifle bullets like from a AK-47!!
I doubt the guy can read, and his hearing is most likely affected by all that shooting practice, so he probably didn't pick that up.
Thanks 🙏 Rivian right rear charge port mirrors the left front one on their R1 line that fits their Adventure Network. Hoping Rivian can survive production hell and emerge profitable. Lotsa love to all ❤❤❤
why did every manufacturer in the world look where tesla put their charging port and put theirs totally opposite so their customers could never use the tesla network?
every ICE vehicle can gas up at every gas station, EVs have to be able to do that to convince the mass market. why are they fighting success.
NICE inclusion of how the US VC space is learning : they met with the Tesla AI/Autopilot team & these guys are bright enough to really get it. Thanks Dillon
Ockham’s Razor - The simplest solution is most often the best one.
I've been to the Ockham that William of Ockham (a/k/a Occam) is named after. It seemed a very simple village.
The best engineering is always elegantly simple.
Nope! "The simplest explanation of a phenomena is most likely the correct one."
@@BjorckBengt Yes - that is saying exactly the same thing; who are the “quotes” from. LOL!
@@mtxeer8838 NO, he is right. It's about explaining a phenomena NOT production
That is not an AK47. It is an AK variant that fires 9mm. AK47 shoots 7.62x39 which, like any rifle round, will go straight through.
Or a 7.7 mm
Or 5.56, which I have seen
Still rather have the SS than not. (pleased they didn't stick w 3mm SS, insanely thick and heavy)
I personally think stainless was a bad idea. Aluminum at 3mm would not be lightweight or bullet proof, but who needs that and it would solve the sharp edge issues.
you are more likely to be shot from a 9mm than anything else. Also bullet resistant is about angle and speed. 7.62x39 hitting the armor at a steep angle will still bounce off. hence tanks use sloped armor.
I had the same thought. How can people say it was a "mic drop" when they're doing the same thing Mary Barra and GM are doing? Keep introducing new models and new models even though they're not profitable.
Rivian is a nice looking vehicle.
Is it me or does the R3 look like a 70’s AMC Gremlin? 😂
The Gremlin is back. Good catch.
Good eye! hahaha Yeah and that AMC was about the ugliest car of era.
(my beautiful GF's mom had one, drove it a little)
Have you seen the first gen VW Golf?
Yugo.
@@MrbfgrayOh no, the Pacer was much worse!
Rivian is reworking their production, procurement, and improving their basic design for existing models. As they have indicated, if you had bothered to read up on their plans. They do expect to be at a positive margin by Q4 of this year. We will see if this holds up.
Their product is differentiated, and does advance Elon’s hope for more EV’s. Please stop support for the Tesla vs. Rivian (vs anyone else for that matter) agenda.
We are all in this together..
Your feelings are hurt by the truth?
Whoa Nedddie!
" Please stop support for the Tesla vs. Rivian (vs anyone else for that matter) agenda. "
You don't want people to compare companies and models? Why?
Seems Rivian has a snowball's chance in hell to surviving on their current trajectory. I believe the reason for the new SUV is to temp one of the legacy manufacturers to buy them.
Or Apple 🤔
@@GT-22nah, Apple just walked away.
@@gregbailey45 "nah, Apple just walked away."
Apple wouldn't see opportunity even if it kicked them in the face.
@@yourcrazybear I wonder then if Apple also figured out production is the hardest part and so that as the challenge Rivian is facing despite an amazing looking product.
@@GT-22"@yourcrazybear I wonder then if Apple also figured out production is the hardest part and so that as the challenge Rivian is facing despite an amazing looking product."
Well the difference is that Apple have plenty of cash. They also get synergy effects by implementing their software ecosystem into the cars.
I'm pulling for Rivian too. Hope they pull through.
21:47 Come on now, Rivian provided not just a pretty picture, but rolled out a prototype. Wall St loves a pretty trinket much more than a detailed breakdown of how you'll achieve actually delivering on promises around said trinket. When Tesla announces a launch event for the $25k model, the stock will run up... then promptly crash following the event just because... and probably remain low until they can no longer ignore the effect being observed in P/E from deliveries because Wall St is reactionary.
I'm increasingly reaching the conclusion that Wall St is simply the "public face" of a Stock / money/ power manipulation pyramid scheme.
.
Those at the top of that pyramid wish to stay there and they don't care how they do it.
Dillon thank you for this excellent episode "putting things into perspective."
Thanks for another informative episode Dillon
Great points about Rivian. Thank you Dillon.
I agree with you Dillen about Rivian! Would love to see them make it! Great video, thanks!!
Right?! What were they thinking putting the charge port on the rear passenger side! Horrible decision. I hope they change it to rear driver side.
Why not rear center or golden ratio point to improve connectability of range extender trailers?
Amazing! keep it up, good work.
Thanks for the videos!!!
Why oh why did you cut off that CT offroading clip right at the end 😭.
also nice takes on the rivian launch.
This is FSD genius. Give the engineer that figured this out a HUGE bonus. This is pure genius from all that is known.
Rivian has been working with Munroe to revamp their manufacturing design and processes to reduce cost.
I'll be waiting till Rivian comes out with the R2D2. :-)
On Rivian (and Lucid and others). The problem is scaling up. You can't bring the losses per vehicle down without massively scaling up. Only Tesla has managed that so far, even the OEMs like Ford, Stellantis and GM have found out that with their mediocre sales numbers they are still making losses. So it will remain to be seen, who from all these companies trying will eventually be able to sell large enough EV's without going bankrupt. Rivian certainly has big pockets, as has Lucid's sugar daddy ;-) I think if we're realistic, given that Tesla was once a couple of days away from bankruptcy (when Elon even reached out to Tim Cook) around Xmas time, in the current situation with so much more competition (back then there basically was none) even Tesla would run out of money. I also don't like the design of Rivian, looks like a Ford Bronco to me and the R3 is the ugly, old Renault design from the 1970's
Pay $1M/yr for dozens of *TOP tier* engineers instead of $150k for hundreds of very good engineers...at least for the real cutting edge stuff.
With reasonable comp and benny, a million a year MIGHT get you something like 3 really good engineers. Add a zero if you want a few.
Mid 2026 means late 2027 to start deliveries, 2028 before you can get one. The debt Rivian has is super scary. I hope they make it.
A body lookin truck shouldn’t be a option
@@sparkysho-ze7nm
?
They are not Tesla. They said early 2026 and I believe we will see it then. Feels like they gave themselves a lot of extra room to not miss that timeline
Although Tesla had losses for years, their COGS only exceeded the price of the car one quarter since going public. Tesla had losses due to investment. Rivian’s loses come from their COGS always exceeding the amount they can get for their cars. No company can survive on negative gross profit margins.
You are the man Dillon, thank you for your continued efforts to educate the world!
There should be a layer of “understand the rules”, meaning do as people do, mimic good driving, but also understand what road rules and signs are: if there’s No Turn on Red sign, FSD must understand what that means.
Just as you tell a baby
🥀 "This is a flower"
Then
🌸"This is a flower" (confusion?)
and
🌻"This is a flower"
.
As input increases, the system will "recognise" the similarity of "signs" and the general response to those (various) signs.
Well they would be forced to have a register of laws in all regions. Any language model AI could easily lookup the local laws and instruct the other systems in FSD on what's allowed.
Occam's Razor is that the simplest approach is the most likely scenario in play (the simplest explanation is the most likely one).
Optimization, the process of extracting the most performance in a particular application, more often than not is the more complicated task (like tuning an engine).
Depends on perspective.
Frankly, new EV models that do not have the charge port on left rear or right front should not be allowed to charge at Tesla chargers as take up 2 stalls to charge one car.
at least Rivian is producing vehicles the public likes and wants to buy. Tesla refusing to make a small, regular looking pickup. Such a vehicle would sell incredibly well.
Sure... that's exactly why Tesla Model Y is the best selling car in the world (of any type)
@@marcogpt but a small truck would sell well. Same with delivery van. Form a separate company, raise capital with an IPO, setup production and see if it is profitable.
Back when Tesla was only producing the Model S, the company was not profitable. However, they were making a profit on the cars since the COGS (cost of goods sold) was less than the transaction price that Tesla received. Dillon's discussion about Rivian seems to be confusing the profitability of the company with the actual profit or loss that Rivian makes for each vehicle sold. That number determines if increasing sales is helping the company to be profitable, or just increasing their losses.
OK
1) What is the COGS? (Historically)
.
2) Do the design changes ensure positive margin per vehicle?
.
3) What's the intended production volume?
.
4) What commitment do they have from "big backers" moving forward?
"Dillon's discussion about Rivian seems to be confusing the profitability of the company with the actual profit or loss that Rivian makes for each vehicle sold."
In what way? The margins on the cars do affect the profitability of the company.
"That number determines if increasing sales is helping the company to be profitable, or just increasing their losses."
Costs tends to be lowered with increased production volume.
@@rogerstarkey5390 Yes, I would like answers to these questions, especially the marginal profit per vehicle.
The Rivian R2 charge port location is the biggest flaw for me, but still will buy.
Software, it's good but it's not Tesla good. (my crude 2nd hand understanding)
16:30 I'd be accidentally brushing those ridiculous scroll wheels all the time, could be wrong that looks bad.
@@Mrbfgraymy thoughts too. They're way too big!
The location makes sense for street side charging. We’ve got a few where I live and they are always passenger side for parallel parking.
21:35 - that’s literally my first car, same colour!
Thank you Dillon. If Rivian did as well as you they would crush the Market. Your Channel is Exceptional... I never miss an Episode.
The believe Cybertruck was only said to protect against a 9mm/.45 cal handgun round, not a 7.62/39mm rifle round. I imagine a jacketed .357 @ 1,250-1,500 fps would probably zip right through also. Oh well, he got some clicks. That was the point.
The releases do look a lot better than the large OEM accouncements.
The R2 is a nice looking car, inside and out. My guess is it will either be way more than $45k or another money losing machine. Also, RJ looks like Steve-O.
Tesla didn't say they're leaving the FCAI at the end of the year.
They said they're leaving at the end of the financial year. Which in Australia is mid year/end of June.
R2 reminds me of AMC - VWGolf offspring?
Watched the "Franz and Lars" video on New Model 3. I learned that my (on order) RWD model has 2 additional bass drivers in the 9 speaker audio system. Chris at Totally EV (YT -No Subwoofer...) says Tesla told him they are 200mm (7.87") in each front door. This should deliver some great Bass, I think.
I think Rivian's rush to reveal the R3 was to show investors and the public that they're still moving forward with new development. They know everyone sees the financial challenges they have and they're hoping something fresh and new on the horizon will maybe change public perspective. In other words "hype".
I love that r3 design. Reminds me of my old rabbit convertible.
But I’m pretty skeptical we will see them by 2026. These guys need to buckle down and get cash flow positive pretty soon here!
Knew you would hit the data on this release from Rivian. What they've shown us is a cool vehicle, but they still need to turn a profit and cut costs drastically. Definitely hoping they can pull their own rabbit out of the hat, but like SMR have previously stated, the task is like climbing Everest, Backwards and blindfolded (or something to that affect)🤣 Great content as always. Keep it up!!
at 11:30 - thank you Dillon for stating that legacy auto cannot sell affordable EVs. Personally I don't care about some company's inability to compete. Did Ford or GM give a crap when they exported jobs? Nope - and they were already profitable - they just wanted higher profits. Execs where bonused millions for their moves.
21:36 that is a PEUGEOT 104 from 1972.
R2 looks like the old 4x4 Yugo
Meh. I think that thing is going to sell a ridiculous amount. I own a Tesla and honestly these rivian offerings seemed way more interesting to me than
There are no car manufacturers in Australia.
Rivian has a large showroom in New York City, just around the corner from Tesla's.
Around 9:30 did the EU elaborate on the "unfair" subsidies - or did they just make a statement to support taxing their citizens. "money flowing straight from the government to Chinese automakers" - sounds a lot like what the US government is doing. (Yes import taxes are passed to the consumer - YOU pay extra and GOVT pockets the cash - all as a favor to the industry that bribes them via "donations".
If they really wanted to punish them, they'd refuse to unload - but they don't - they want the cash.
Q: If China is willing to sell their products below cost - how does the consumer suffer? It's not about you. It's about protectionism.
Cost me $84 till fill my f150, I will never buy Detroit again, my next car will be a Tesla, who is 12 years ahead of Detroit
Light years ahead an pullin away @ lightspeed
24,500 kilometres into my ownership and I have spent $600 on electricity
It costs me about $12 to fill my model S for 400 miles.
Cost me $90 in gas a week for my Wrangler. Thats only going to and from work in town. 😂
In UK it costs me £70 ~$80 to fill Kia Sportage diesel. About 50 litres 11 imperial gallon.
£4 to do a day's work in MG 4 EV.
Hey Dillon, what's up with the video picture quality? Really seems to be getting fuzzy over past few episodes... otherwise great work as always, please keep it up! 😃👍🏻
16:26 Tesla Model S and X still have radar. In fact, they have a new Tesla developed HD radar.
Did Rivian Osborne the R2 by showing the R3?
Can someone do analysis on how many Amazon vans Rivian is producing each week and if their ramp is increasing.
This should be adding volume to the overall production and helping Rivian become profitable in the future.
If they can add other delivery companies like UPS, FedEx, or even USPS to their list of customers in the future that will help them increase volume and become profitable. Does Rivian make any money on the delivery vans they produce for Amazon The Amazon contract should provide a base of support for production and sales and should get more focus.
Rivian could become profitable with the according scale effects, but that is the question, is their R1 and R2 a product for the mass market? We will find out in some years.
Not yet, imho.
That was a 9mm AK pistol that uses CZ Scorpion magazines, not an AK-47, and not even a rifle cartridge.
8:18 This is definitely not an AK47. Probably PP19 which shoots 9mm.
The Chinese tariffs are a “both and” situation. Legacy automakers are pushing back, but China’s subsidies have artificially propped up these companies to avoid going under and even positioned them to dominate markets.
That guy with the cybertruck has several other videos where he shoots at the back-door!
I hope his yt channel is flowing with cash...
I’m rooting for Rivian because they build a great EV, but $45K is much too low for R2. It will cost them at least 60 to build it.
Bruh, model Y will be $37k or less ($30k after instant tax rebate) by the time R2 is out.
If they set the price too high, how do they sell
@@MrQuay03 You can’t sell it for less than it costs to build. If you do, prepare for bankruptcy.
That inexpensive Rician. Was that a Hugo they showed?
Could you find out from your guests how a disengagement is fixed without coding. I think you need lots of CORRECT examples of that disengagement scenario in order to 'retrain/force' it to override that disengagement example. How do they get DOJO to find the correct examples. Or do they do it another way?
you're on the right track - when a disengagement happens the fleet can send data to the hq to be trained and tesla uses neural nets on the cars to help determine what type of clips are chosen
Hi Dillon Loomis 22 from Trisha 🎉😊
Wait. The ak47 was chambered in what round? No chance the CT would survive with the traditional 762 round.
I hope Rivian can survive.
No matter how good FSD gets I will never pay 10k+ for it. Maybe 6k, the best price point would be for it to be a similar price point as the performance upgrade.
A higher price for commercial use of FSD makes sense though
Love the analysis as usual - but I do think your assessment of Rivian left out a few key details. First off - I think you skipped over a key detail regarding the fact that Rivian is shutting down all R1 production lines in June 2024 for major efficiency improvements specifically designed to decrease manufacturing costs per vehicle by up to 30%. This is likely the primary reason that Rivian announced conservative vehicle volume estimates for 2024 overall - because of the factory lines going offline for one month for major updates. Your reference to the $40k per vehicle number is against overall profit/loss IIRC - not actual manufacturing costs per vehicle - which is closer to $35k per vehicle at present. This might not seem like a big difference but it is. If we use the per vehicle manufacturing cost of $35k - or $115k total - and subtract 30% - that's 115k-34.5k=$80.5k - basically breakeven - and this doesn't include the savings from the 10% RIF that was recently announced. Just as a reminder, don't forget that Tesla laid off 10% of it's workforce in June 2022 and implemented a hiring freeze. Point being, EV manufacturers in particular periodically need to trim staff like this at least in part due to the increased manufacturing efficiencies being implemented over time - which typically requires less staff to design and maintain when implemented. With the R1 production cost savings coupled with the RIF savings - I think it's realistic we'll see per vehicle breakeven costs by end of 2024 for the R1 vehicles at least. I don't think we'll see overall per vehicle profits however, because Rivian has to invest into the Normal, IL manufacturing lines for R2 starting this year if they are going to have any hope of actually bringing the vehicle to market within two years time. Just my two cents on the Rivian topic.
The fact that solar panels in the US cost at least 4 times their cost anywhere else speaks to the likelihood that the US cannot produce anthing economically in this sector - let alone something as complex as cars, in which only Tesla has the advantage of significant economy of scale.
The other difference is that Tesla either never did or for a very short time lose money on the actual cost to produce the car COGS (cost of goods sold), it was just fixed overall costs such as the factory, infrastructure, charging network etc that they had to make back to become profitable overall. What went into the car itself as far as parts etc was still less than the selling price. Then over time and with scale they made even more profit per car to accelerate when they reached overall profitability. However with Rivian and many other competitors or all of them, their actual COGS is more than the selling price and still is except for maybe some chinese oems. So selling more at scale for tesla means overcoming those startup costs eventually, but if your cogs is higher than selling price like the others, the more you sell, the more you loose and you will never achieve profitability. In that case with the others Scale does not matter unless you can reduce the COGS costs.
Rivian's got all that funding from Amazon, and one would think that it could've used the vans they're making for Amazon as a learning tool to get their manufacturing prowess up to what is needed to make cars for the mass market. Apparently not.
Agree with everything you said -- and then bought a bunch of Rivian stock just in case they pull a Tesla out of their hat in the next 10 years...
The analysis of 'Rivian is losing $XX per car' while statistically correct is not a logical way to analyze the situation. The situation is analogous to Tesla in some ways, and there are some differences. Like Tesla, Rivian will never be profitable selling only their first-gen luxury vehicle; in fact, even today, Tesla would be broke selling just the Model S. The key metric is the marginal cost to produce the next vehicle (and the capacity of the plant). Also true that Toyota cannot make money on an ICE car selling 30,000 of them a year.
A better way to break it down would be to say 'Rivian spent XX billions engineering their first model and after that sunk cost it now costs them $XX per vehicle to build them.' And that marginal cost is on a generally declining curve with time (they get more efficient) and volume.
Rivian was always going to have to go down this road to a mare mass appeal car.
The notable things they're doing right include building a very good car right off the bat. For the most part, they're taking care of their customers when problems arise. Their partnership with Amazon is a big deal and potentially opens up a substantial market that they will be the leader in. Their leadership is not distracted by hobbies or by building additional side businesses and so far has not been on camera taking drugs, and they have largely refrained from other sideshows or picking fights with the SEC. I'm a big fan of adult leadership in the company.
Tesla has pulled of a very unusual success. Rivian might be able to do it, too.
Agree with your first point. Even Tesla is now making a loss per CyberTruck sold. I’m also rooting for Rivian - they will not match Tesla in size but we need them for competition.
Profitability, the invisible Elephant in the room...
that's not true AK-47. It's just a 9mm submachine gun that is based on AK, but it fires pistol round - 9mm same as average handgun, which is far from intermediate rifle round that AK fires. standard run of the mill 9 mm has an muzzle energy of about 500 J. AK round has energy of over 2 000 J
Getting a clearer picture of how Australia actually leads the world down the garden path..
That is not an AK-47.
Also, the gun in the video is firing 9x19mm pistol rounds, not 7.62x39 rifle rounds. HUGE DIFFERENCE.
Ak47 round is much stronger than the advertised 9mm (most common round)
Why is this even a conversation?
Rivian has to move faster. They need volume, yes it's higher risk.
One more knock on Rivians profitability…when Tesla was losing money, batteries were $500/kwh. Battery costs have dropped 80% as well as many other EV components. Do we expect another 80% drop in the next few years to help Rivian make up for their lack of profitability today?
Thats not an AK47. Its a sub machine gun that is chambered in a pistol caliber round. It might be based on the AK platform but is no where near as powerful as an AK which uses 7.62 or 5.45 rifle rounds.
It's not about being powerful, it's about the armour capabilities ability - 9mm is a larger caliber by diameter, so at a same muzzle energy it would produce less pressure in the point of contact.
@@Chamieiniibet Velocity determines ability to penetrate. Smaller diameter helps to some extent. Subsonic projectiles wont go through a cybertruck door but a 9mm going at 2000fps plus will zip right through.
@@magamike1800 1. Velocity is just one factor in the kinetic energy equation (mV²/2), which, in turn, is a factor in armour piercing capabilities, together with diameter and hardness.
2. Velocity is not directly determined by the bullet caliber, but the bullet weight, barrel, powder charge etc.
3. I said "at the same muzzle energy", which, for a lighter bullet, would mean a higher speed (see the E = mV²/2). That's why subsonic rifle bullets like 9x39 are heavy.
@@Chamieiniibet Yes.
around 21:00 when Dillon says Rivian announces a $50K car and stock rises - Tesla announces $25K car is stock drops... Could the market "assume" the $50K car has higher margins? Just sayin'
Hi Dillon Loomis 22 from Trisha 🎉😮😊
when Brad talks about FSD, adoption and penetration, I think of Woody Allen
Who is producing the 4695 Cells for RIvian or any one else.