POKEMON MARKET SATURATION - Are Alternate Arts Just As RARE as Gold Stars?
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 29 июл 2023
- #pokemoncards #pokemonalternateart #dannyphantump #pokemontcg #pokemonreprint #pokemonrestock #pokemoncardmarket #pokemoncardinvesting
In today's video, we continue down our rabbit hole determining how many Pokemon Card Alternate Arts have been printed. While there is no way to determine how accurate these numbers are, comparing them to chase cards of the past can be extremely important and encouraging information. Are Alternate Art Pokemon Cards really just as rare as Pokemon Gold Stars? Let's talk about it!
Join this channel to get access to perks:
/ @dannyphantump
Follow me on Instagram - / danny.phantump
Follow me on Twitter - / danny__o
Shop the Colosseum - www.pkmncolosseum.com
Our Bulk Form - www.pokecolosseum.com 
Игры
I love my Pokémon collection, even though it’s not worth much. It’s nice to just appreciate it besides looking at the value of the cards. 10 years ago I was buying Ex packs for 10-18$, and I thought that was expensive. It’s crazy how collecting cards is today.
Same, you can really get discouraged looking at the price of your collection or vice versa
Great breakdown. A really interesting discussion about the longevity of the hobby based on historical data of the old “chase” cards. It’s fun to look at my collection and have an idea of how many others are out there.
amazing data analysis!! so thankful for everything you are doing to share information with the community!
Awesome video man. Don’t worry about it being like the wax era guys, that time was awful due to high printing plus it didn’t have a variety of cards. There was no chase cards besides rookies and there was tons of them. Spot on for many collectors we just like seeing our collections retain value, not in it to make money but it does suck when prices go way down and you see your collection devalue.
Great past 2 videos man, I love the math and being able to see how it all lays out. Thanks for all the hard work!
Awesome video Danny! Very much agree that love of the hobby should come first. Love of the hobby is what will take you long term with these sets and if value arises down the line then it is just icing on the cake.
Awesome video, Danny! :)
You play the goofball role well Danny but I'm onto you. You are as sharp as they come, man. This vid was great! Your ability to explain the subject matter concisely yet keeping it easily understandable is second to none.
Love your videos as always danny! Pokemon hasnt died down for me but you're one of the few poketubers I still watch
I've learned so much from the last 2 videos. Great info and very concise. Keep it up!
man your video topics are always so interesting and helpful 🙏🏽
Absolutely crushing with these data dives. Gives a very clear understanding of what we are dealing with and allows for people to make confident decisions!!
Really solid work! I love these videos
Woahhh thank you for the insightful data analysis!!! Love videos like these!
These past two videos have been amazing!!!! Thank you Danny!😊
My wife and I opened a single box of PE, and honestly, we did not feel like we got anywhere close to a good value for our purchase.
Spent $120 at our LCS on the box and got about $50 in pulls out of it. I fully understand and expect some "fun costs," but $70 of fun cost meant it wasn't fun at all.
Thank you for this input and outlook into this topic bro 👍
absolutely love this. thank you for the vid sir. truly good info for the pokemon community
awesome video!
What has to be considered as well is how much gets destroyed as well in floods fires ect...but thanx so much for such detailed math and info Danny!!
Loved the video Danny!
Wow this was very informative, thank you!
Another amazing video thanks danny
Wow amazing video man keep it up !!!
Great information! I have been collecting again since 2020 and its so enjoyable to shit back and look through all my binders full of beautiful art. There like mini master pieces. Lol
Nice info!
I am still trying to find that sweet spot in my collection. I had a big issue with values initially, now I just buy what I want, learning to skip products and focus it down was so important.
Danny, I hope you continue pumping out videos using this data! You’ve worked on collecting the data for years and you can do a ton a great and useful content from it like your last two videos. It really should be your most watched video for the content it provides. Something that may not be quite as interesting, but would be useful is to change one (or a few) of your major assumptions in the last video, I.e., the percent of English cards. You assumed 70% (seems reasonable!), but could do quick recalculations in Excel for 55% and 85%. It would be extremely unlikely the numbers were less than or greater than 55% and 85%, respectively. Therefore, you could have a range of how many alt arts from a set were printed and be quite a bit more confident the actual values falls within that range. I look forward to seeing what’s next! You’re crushing it!
I love videos about the dark ages of pokemon. Always interesting to see the eras I missed
These videos are awesome Danny! Thank you for all your hard work
The only thing I question is that 2b were printed each year from 2006-2010. I have heard D&P and HGSS were slightly more popular than ex era, so maybe sets from 2004-2006 were less printed than sets from 2006-2010. Who knows. But, this is a great video. Been watching your channel for a while, and the content keeps getting better.
Wow impressive data analytics! Thank you!
Love this video Danny!!!! This was very eye opening, I am super excited about this hobby :) thanks for all you do God bless!!!
Great video, Danny. There are so many cards, but like you said in the long run, it is not many. So 200k of one card is not many in a place like NYC or California, and over the years, it gets to be less.
These breakdown videos are awesome!
Thanks again Danny!
Hey Phanny! THANK YOU!
thanks for sharing!
These two videos were awesome! What I've been wondering is what drives prices within the same set of chase cards. Looking at some of the older sets you highlighted the values vary between the 2 or 3 gold stars of a particular set. The same thing can be seen in the chase cards of today. If there is theoretically the same number of each why is Umbreon selling for twice as much as rayquaza? Is it popularity or playability?
Thank you Danny for all the time and effort you put into helping everyone enjoy the hobby. I barely got back into the hobby about 2 months ago. I was captivated by the nostalgia. However, shortly after, to be honest, I too was looking up how to make a quick buck with this hobby on RUclips. It's channels like yours, and videos such as this one, that really allowed me to take a step back and just enjoy the hobby for what it is. Rather than just see it as a get rich quick scheme 😅 thank you
Really interesting videos lately Danny. I would’ve thought there were much more alt arts printed and much less gold stars. While I’m sure the numbers are off slightly, I think you nailed it with the assumptions you made. Great stuff!
As always, we love your breakdowns and insights. Thanks so much Danny.
Here again. Friday's video was great. This one is 🔥
The best data analysis for pokemon youtube here
Another great video Danny! I’ve been picking up a lot of Alt Arts lately because many of them seem super undervalued.
just got back from my trip today. Time to binge some analysis videos
It’s good to have an idea of the population and how rare they are. I haven’t started collecting back in the gold star days, but guess different eras have its own chase.
This build up of knowledge for future me is incredibly grateful Danny ❤
my trainer gallery binder gunna age like fine wine
Mine too hopefully. Also been picking them up in PSA 10 as some are really cheap
love this video!
Prof. Phantump, at it again! I only got back into collecting a year ago so this is all such valuable perspective
Like number 150 ❤ We like it a lot xD Again a great vid Danny! Enjoy Man and big hello from Cracow❤
This is a great video as it hits some very key points in being a collector. If your buying in just because you may hit a big hit you will spend more than that hit is more than likely before you get it. You should enjoy what you invest in!
To this day one of my favorite collection pieces is a Gold star Gyarados I pulled from a random 8-pack box as a kid. Fun video, Danny
It'll be interesting to see how these hold up over time
I just pulled out my Sun and Moon cards the other day and was blown away by some of the growth… Full art trainers I was picking up for $5-$10 are now $80-$150
I’m tempted to unload. But I don’t know if the era will see the same growth if I were to reinvest into some newer cards…
Very inspiring video for me. I have a few hundred alternate arts in my collection and have been see sawing on selling them. I am going to hold for now to see how the market goes in the next 5-10 year love the hobby. It just took over a bit. Time to step back and enjoy what I got.
Love the work done in this video. Just wanted to recommend not using exact numbers when presenting your conclusions based on estimates. When the answer gets more specific, sometimes it looks like the data is less reliable, especially when you're dealing with estimates and unknowns as the initial data point.
great video Danny, a logical perspective to the modern vs vintage debate, refreshing to hear compared with some of the fear mongering out there
I like taking this data and comparing it to magic reserve list cards with known print runs :)
Your so smart bro. My pockets are not ready for what you just started
I really like this information I know it may not be exact but it kinda gives you an idea of what is out there
something i always point out to people is that alt art vmaxes are 3 times harder to pull than gold stars were. this means they would need to print 3 times more product overall for their to be as many alt art vmaxes as their were gold stars at release. add onto that the fact that theirs far more alt art vmaxes in sets than their were gold stars and you start to realize that they would need to print about 10 x more product to have as many individual alt art vmaxes as their were individual gold stars when those sets were released. so for example for their to be as Manny umbreon vmax alt arts at the release of evo skies as their were gold star charizards when its set released their would need to be 10 x more evolving skies product in total released than their was dragon frontier product. that said this does not take into account the decade of gold star charizards being damaged thus making mint copies extremally rare and valuable today. due to grading alt art vmaxs will likely never be as rare as gold star Charizard's are nowadays.
Finally, someone that is making accurate statements around here. Bingo.... you have nailed it. Danny is on point and so is your comment.
This is what the people want to know!! You are the MAN DANNY!! 🔥🔥
I have not gotten through the entire video but to compare them to gold stars I think is tough. Gold stars are fewer than 200 for most of the PSA 9’s. Based on that alone and then looking at the 10’s even comparing the printing then to now I don’t think there’s a comparison. I love alt arts and think they are very collectible and rare despite print numbers, BUT old grails will never be matched in rarity. Maybe if everyone sleeved and protected them but based on the actual populations nothing can tough Shinings, Gold stars and Crystals… great video though way more analytical than most videos. That’s why I love your content. 😎🙏🏼
Ty for the vid.
Still waiting to hear from Danny about winning the 151 booster box. Hopefully hear back soon 🙏 so happy I won!
I won a championship path etb from him awhile back and I had to email him. I sent something on ig and than 2 emails. I did eventually get it.
Danny is a great guy! If you won, you will 100% get it :)
Its all sorted, he emailed me back 🤗 Such a great guy!!
Even if it's just an assessment, it's clear a lot of thought and work were put into it. Good job Danny
i really remember there is much less cards than 2b printed in 2006. I was playing back then, and honestly, the prices and the cycle we get for everything back then are gutterball low.
There is a reason why SR Alakazam, and SR Gyarados from 10 years ago in the XY era sets, are not even close to their RSE era Gold Star counterparts that are from 20 years ago (that is if I am trying to look at RSE Gold Star by comparison 10 years ago)
Low overall Quantity, and low population is the reason why Gold Stars spike to near plateau during the pandemic.
im surprised by how in line these were.
The junk wax card market in the ’90s didn't have the internet. Everything has a value these days even if it's microscopic.
Always been a collector only, but recently started playing the tcg and appreciate the cards way more.
The dark ages of pokemon is right when I went into college. Makes sense lol
This might be the best video on the Alt art market ever created
My Japanese binder is only made out of SAR SR UR and AR and gotta be honest i prefer the AR's they are just as good looking if not better then the acctual 'rares' plus some are getting in the price range of the SR's i really love them
Danny I think you need a series on market analysis. Categories: Hype Posts, Business Tips, Market Analysis, Speculation, Pack Openings. It would also be nice to see you get out of your domain and make videos of your interacting with others in the hobby.
I do want the gold star cards byt i see how they are sooo pricey its crazy! Definitely something to work up to. Thanks Danny for all the content! 😊
You should sell your Excel sheets! Hahah that's some nice data, Danny
I'm having a hard time focusing on the value of Crown Zenith cards. I still have over $500 of singles to buy to complete that set, and that's AFTER spending over 400 bucks opening sealed product. 😵💫
20 years ago I just gave my collection away. Very sorry, now that I've been sucked into the Pokemon world again.
Anytime is a good time to get back into Pokémon. You’re never to old and it’s never to late.
Without even watching, I think as far as pull rates, Alt Arts (especially when you pick specific ones) are much harder to pull that Gold Stars. BUT, the fact they've printed much more product than during the EX Era, really is what's driving the rarity of Gold Stars. Just the sheer size of modern sets has made pull rates so much more difficult.
Also cards got ruined and destroyed, that doesn’t happen very much with modern
Makes sense to me.😊
I wanna time travel to early pokemon so i could appreciate them more
Because we're all keeping our cards nice, there will be waaaay more alt arts than there are gold stars that remain in good quality. I think the alt arts will be slow to move because of all the well-kept copies in existance.
Gold stars are incredible. I wish I was opening more packs back then, but I’m close to having them all now
Hoping for a win next friday
Great video, resubbed.
I never bought gold star vintage cards because I know that they were so overprinted. I own other vintage cards that are low pop but to each their own. Like you mentioned though they probably weren't taken care of nearly as well as we take care of alt arts today (now that everyone knows about grading). I think Pokemon did a great job from a business standpoint printing these SWSH alt art sets to the masses BUT also having multiple secret rare slots per set to make it just as difficult (if not more difficult) to pull the chase cards.
How did you get these numbers? Did you get them from a website or by yourself? If you get them from a website, would you mind telling us what the website is? If you get these number yourself, would you mind explaining your methodology?
Thanks ❤️ 😊
I collect lv X and prime cards because those were popular when I was playing competitively as a kid, plus the art is really unique in that the card art started to breach the border of the art's frame. Thanks to the popularity of the "pokemon waifus", it seems that lv X and primes are getting a backseat in terms of market value (this also means I can get PSA 9 Lv X for half the price compared to a year ago). I'm told that vintage cards are going down in value and popularity, and I'm curious to hear your thoughts as to why that is.
Vintage will not go down in my opinion, it will never be reprinted and the hobby is only growing! And some of the old art is truly awesome “skyridge” ect.
Shhhh! 😉
As someone who has been in the hobby during both of those times, I think it boils down to this..... I don't think that modern is just going to take vintage and absolutely run it into pennies, but vintage just doesn't interest the new players and kids. I'm 37 years old, and I'll be quite frank, there is a select amount of vintage I like "Neo", "LV X", and "Japanese Team Rocket and Gym" cards. I just think that as time passes, kids aren't going to care about the over priced more basic looking cards of 20 years ago. I lived through that era and personally, I am not the biggest fan of them either. I just think its something over time that will dwindle but it will always hold a similar value but the items that increase in price will be more selective and a much more slow and gradual place. If I was 10 years old now and seen a 1998 Charizard from base set compared to the Alt Art Charizard V from Brilliant Stars, I'd choose the one from Brilliant Stars 100 out of 100 times.... that is what you are seeing now days and will continue to happen as time goes along.
@@JaneDoe-sv1mk I think this outlines the reasoning very well for me, well said. The art on even just the commons and uncommons are phenomenal compared to the vintage cards. I love the base set for nostalgia, but the amount of effort put into making new cards look good is incredible. I think that also plays into the appeal for people getting into the hobby. Alt art vmax card arts compared to base set charizard (as you already laid out) are going to get the attention of new hobbyists and kids much more easily.
I love Alt arts, Rainbow, and Gold honestly.
Danny Einstein phanny very nice bro 😎
Can I go back in time and pick up one of every gold star for my collection please..... I came back to pokemon too late 😭
I agree with everything in this video. I think the numbers look correct as I have done quite a bit of research on numbers as well as opened an absurd amount of pocket monster product during the Sword and Shield Generation. I've opened cases by the truck load of booster boxes, collection boxes, sleeved boosters, pack lots, and random sleeved boosters all bought from big box stores, distributors, online stores, and LGS's. 1st) Alternate Art cards are absolutely rare as all get out .... I can't even begin to state how rare these cards are. I've opened up a booster box of evolving skies with 3 alt arts in one box, and I've opened up a case of evolving skies and gotten 2 alternate arts in the entire case. 2nd) Pokemon isn't just in the areas they were in a decade ago, they have become global and in regions you wouldn't expect. I was speaking with a Chinese customer that had bought both English and Japanese singles off me just this past week. 3rd) The junk wax era was overran with an absurd amount of suppliers, printed into oblivion, and also the counter-fitting that hit that market during the 90's of the "Signed" or "Autographed" product that was in the market was almost all of the market. There were a few individuals that counter fitted so much of the high end rarity product that if you own something from the 90's that was to be signed by let say Mark McGuire or Sammy Sosa, before he went bright, it's almost guaranteed to be fake.
The value of these cards will rise, and rise exponentially, trust me. Give it 5 - 10 years, these alt art cards will be the Gold Star cards of 10 years ago. No doubt in my mind.
I believe full arts and alternate arts are drastically different rates. If you use the actual pull rate of 1 in 220 or whatever, the numbers in the low 5 digits.
What about the large stack of moonbreons that were stolen?
Thanks!
Super fascinating if it's true. As you say, gives me hope for the long-term value of modern. I mostly collect modern since that's when I started the hobby. I've been hoping it isn't a fool's errand to collect mostly modern...
🤡
Gonna spend even more time!
The hobby will always be there if people enjoy collecting their favorite card. The value should be based upon what the collector is collecting and what they are willing to pay for it. I enjoy my collection and want it to grow.