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Doesnt take into account Risk of WAR and how countries would purposefully manipulate economies and industrial output to Crash societies (On Purpose) on an attempt to prevent future wars. (Look to China's current economic and societal collapse, which is both internally engineered by accident aka Communist Dictator/internal culture of corruption,... to outside Engineering from worlds countries removing businesses and manufacturing from China to other countries.) recent example (India Confiscated illegal Pakistan Nuclear Material shipment to China causing China to alter its Nuclear policy as it no longer has enough nuclear material for producing the nuclear weapons it was trying to threaten other countries with) While there is going to be (LOCAL) societal collapse and/or restructuring. it by far appears to be due to manipulation for specific end goals not by any lack of resources or too much of anything else.
Saying "oh hey society is predicted to collapse in 18 years" and following it up with "the first 1000 fans to sign up with this link get a free month of skillshare!" is some disconnected dystopian ish.
@@DigitalDissident LOL apparently you don't know what socialism is then. Biden has been a centrist his whole career - firmly in the neoliberal camp like all politicians.
Living through the birth of internet Living through the birth of social media Living through the acceleration of technology Living through the societal collapse
@@BarryBozeman Bottomfeeders love to keep the suicide rates up by spewing sensationalism, paramoia and disinformation. YOU GO GIRL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Everything is fine, Dude. You take the bait and call it truly divine. Covid's over, it's Spring! Let's chat!
Being part of GenX is, in part, witnessing how vibrant and pristine the world was (not long ago) to then observe humanity rapidly becoming an eX-lifeform (while possibly simultaneously seeing the collapse of not only society/civilizations worldwide, but also the collapse of the biosphere itself). Living in the Time of Dying (documentary, check it out)
@@sparkythancztwise Well informed folks are confident and smile. You are oned by paranoids who bait you and stoke the Paranoia Machine daily, Dude. Any education? Let's chat about your passion for doom and gloom...........
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Well learning carpeting, getting little garden to grow own food and getting some shooting courses will make your life much easier in the worst case scenario. Add fishing and hunting and you are more prepared than 80% of European population.
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what? skillshare has to be the perfect sponsor for this. theres probably courses on sustaining an own garden, repairing cars, electrical repairs, carpentry, first-aid, how to safely deliver babies, learning chinese....
Eh, I bet there are plenty of foraging guides and all sorts of off the grid tutorials on there. Better pick up those skills sooner than later! - THE END IS NIGH!
This has happened in New Zealand. A quarter of the population in NZ are elderly, and young people keep leaving due to the high stress of paying taxes to fund so many retired people, who insultingly own the rental property they live in because young people can't afford a house due to the high taxes and low wages they earn.
1/4 of the pop is nothing compared to the rest of the world. Come to Europe mate, we're surrounded by angry, well-off boomers who are even more entitled than gen z. Having lived in the USA for 5, then 13yrs in Germany (still here), the economic decline and high cost of living is becoming more profound since 2015's refugee crisis. One can feel the tense atmosphere now and everything and everyone feels like they're reaching their breaking point really really quickly. I. Grateful that I have chosen not to have children, because I fear that they may not have a safe and happy future. So yeah,The young kiwis will return home once they realise how lucky NZ has it compared to everywhere else.. 😉
The US economy cannot survive without continuous credit and debt creation. The FED will print more money and the average American will go just that much further in debt. Meanwhile, foreigners lust for the greenback. Their economies are in worse condition than the US... if that's even possible. Someone is going to be left holding the bag...
Gold might crash in a liquidity crunch, but many precious metal holders are prepared for this and unlikely to be forced sellers. The paper market would tank and possibly collapse. Hearing from an experienced investor who has overcome adversity is motivating. It can be scary when your portfolio turns red, but if you've invested in strong companies, stick to your goals and continue growing them
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
@@JosephineKenney Gold and silver is the way to go. Gold has had value for 6,000 years. Fiat currency will be worth as much as a roll of toilet paper when an economy crashes an we're on the way.
The biggest problem with humanity is the fact that we typically tend to be more reactive then proactive we wait until the last minute to fix big problems that could have been solved a long time ago
@@AGhostInTheMachine pretty much is. For example. We could solve 99% of conflict, world hunger and homelessness right now. But because people are too stuck in their own bs bubble they can't put their useless petty issues with others aside and are hellbent on servicing nothing but their own needs. Global warming could have been addressed 60+years ago so that we wouldn't even have to worry at this point. Instead we ignored it and now we are in a crisis. Humans are stooopid
I personally think that the collapse is more probable because we are more of a reactive society that waits till the last second to do something rather than being proactive. Political corruption and corporate won’t be going away and people are resistant to change, America is very guilty of that. The people who could have the power to make major decisions for the better aren’t really doing much and I feel as though we aren’t changing fast enough.
Being proactive is cool until deranged psychopaths get their turns with the controls.. or have had the controls for 100+ years.. or will continue having the controls..
We gotta take command of our corners by being exceptional and strong for any hope of our futures guys. Bad times strong men, good times weak men and cycle. We're sitting through the weak leadership, good luck team.
actually rapid change is what has caused empires to crash. the founding fathers knew this and designed our government so that they could not change too much too fast.
it's not about covid. it's the governments response to it, with all there planned economic destruction and spewing divisive propaganda and manipulating the heard
@@12ubix Who says those 70 year olds are experienced? Age does not equal experience at all. Telling someone to grow up for pointing out an obvious issue is stupid. Truth is we need a variation of ages in the government to represent all of us, that's the only way I see this system working in young people's favor as well as old.
@@janterri3539 maybe tens of years of experience in politics? Stop trying to play devils advocate to support an idealistic viewpoint. I bet you are the kind of person who complains about the existence of billionaires.
@@12ubix so there arent capable leaders under 60? why do you want senile leaders who would most likely die before they suffer from their wrong decisions and cant even think properly
Really stupid statement. At least in my country there is an economist/businessman who almost always right about what will be happening with the country in the foreseeable future. His predictions are 70%+ are on point.
I believe we can not only achieve this ahead of schedule, but also hit all four collapses: political, social, environmental, AND economic. Boom, extra credit.
@@calanjameshunt actually it's opposite..birth rate is less in developed countries due to advanced mentality and high education... underdeveloped countries breed like animals despite their poverty and that's why they never escape poverty
Here is the scary part that isnt talked about. When people refer to past civilizations collapsing, they are refering to a small part of the world, that is relatively isolated from other civilizations. Islotation meaning that they dont rely on other civilizations and empires to survive, and vice versa. Nowadays, when we talk about civilization collapsing, we are referring to a huge portion of the world collapsing, something that we have never seen before.
Well, there is the catastrophic collapse at the end of the Bronze age 3000 years ago, where a whole host of civilizations of the time all but ceased to exist entirely, not even leaving behind much record that they were there. The Mediterranean and what we now call the middle east were absolutely wrecked.
Or be in New Zealand as people visiting it say it's like it's still in the 1970s but with internet. Never been more grateful for coming from a "backwards" country. 😉
For anyone worried about this report, please keep in mind that data models cant even predict a days worth of weather accurately. Society is a much more complex model with so many moving parts that are influenced by human emotions (unlike the weather). As someone who works in data science, I highly suggest you to take any long term prediction with a grain of salt. We make very very specific data models to price products based on a small set of data points and most of them blow up as soon as they come into contact with real world data. Alarmism sells, nobody would care about a report which doesn't predict a catastrophe.
Sorry to rain on your parade but Limits to Growth the 30 year update clearly shows, that we have been very closely following the standard run scenario. I understand, that in 1972 you could be sceptical of LtG. How anyone today can not see how dangerously accurate the scenarios shown in the model are, is beyond me.
Forget your computer models. Common sense and simple observation show this is already happening. It's a forrest/trees thing. BTW: I majored in CS, but grew up in a very real world.
While "The Limits to Growth" did present a scenario in which global societal collapse could occur around 2040, it's essential to understand that this was just one of many potential outcomes modeled in the report. It wasn't a definitive prediction. Moreover, the intent of the study was more to stimulate thought and discussion about sustainable growth than to make precise forecasts.
Does Anyone Else Feel Like Everything Has Changed? There is also this feeling that the whole world is holding it's breath. Almost as though we are all waiting for some catalyst or sign or event that puts an end to this feeling of being put on hold. This vague unexplained unease. Everyone is disconnected from each other and there’s no longer any respect or tolerance for each other. No one likes to communicate in person anymore and everyone does things only for money rather than for purpose and meaning. We also have a loneliness epidemic.
I live in Japan and it’s easier to live a simpler life here. Walkable mixed-zoned cities, affordable prices, convenient systems, updated maintained infrastructure, and best of all: community-centric society. People are so nice to each other, it’s unbelievable. Finland and Japan even has the same suicide rate. Finland, the happiest nation on Earth!
There's a book called Fates Of Empires by Sir John Glubb in which he studied lots of failed societies, and found a pattern. We're just following along the cycle he discovered. One reason he mentions for this that the OP didn't mention....was that history is not truthfully taught. Since we constantly revise history, we can't escape the cycle.
History is meant to be revised as new facts are discovered, like a stash of letters from the civil war. However, if what you're teaching is mythology over history, therein lies the problem. Most Americans believe the mythology of their country but have a terrible understanding of what actually has happened.
@matt greene. So true. History that is taught, is nothing more than the beliefs and opinions of the victor, underpinned with an enormous serving of ego.
@@wesswise28 Technically, yes. It fell apart. The end of every society is a good or bad thing, depending on whether you believed in that society, or not.
MIT already predicted in 1972, in the Meadows report, the collapse for 2000. And nothing happened, no famines as they claimed, pollution decreased in developed countries, etc...
@@Frrolon , yeah well, 40 years of living and things have only gotten worse and worse and the very rational questions I had as a child as to WHY any of this happens in the first place have never been answered... Humanity is 🚮 so yeah, I have no hope. The few always ruin it for the many.
Wow, your paranoia desrves a visit to the psychologist on your birthday to explain that everything is fine, but you have been binge-watching sensationalism, paranoia and disinformation. So your views are negative and depressing.
@@Frrolon Or, pay one hundred dollars to a psychologist and get your confidence back. Cutting back on binge-watching sensational, paranoid disinformation also helps, Dude.
Social Collapse doesn't always mean post apocalyptic dystopia but rather that the currents social structures will either be incredibly inefficient or completely reformed
True, but I wouldn't bet money on the new social structure being good, especially when we're destroying the natural environment we depend on, and are depleting our resources.
@politicallyambiguous8424 also, especially when the people in charge of developing the new social structure dress like Emperor Palpatine and say things like, "You will own nothing, and you will be happy." Has 1984 been removed from the required reading?
@@Oklahomeless While I like the book 1984, I doubt our future dystopia will have much in common with Oceana except for mass surveillance and poverty. I think the future will be more like Elysium, with a capitalist elite owning everything whilst we own nothing. I think a neoliberal dystopia is more likely in our current world than a Stalinist one.
As someone who has worked with simulations before, this is the most critical question: How many times did they rerun the thing and the result was “nothing interesting” before the run that gave them the “the world is ending” result? EDIT: More analysis on the study below!
We've been on the same trajectory, without improvement, that has been predicted for decades. Same thing with climate change. Does the world need to explode before you take it seriously?
@@xuto2693 Have you read the study? it's a joke. The World3 model has been "re-calibrated" (i.e. changed to fit current data) several times, with the last one being 1990. Then the years are sampled in averaged 5 year periods, (suspiciously) ending in 2015. In other words, the study relies on a correlation on literally 5 data points. Even then, 3 of the variables are over the ridiculous "acceptance range" of +/-20%. The critical variable that defines the collapse (pollution) shows two data sources. The rates of changes (vital for a dynamic simulation) span a margin from -70% to 240% respect the "closest fit". Another suspicious result of the analysis included is that the original World3 had tipping points that are now in the past, and had not happened (ups!), but all three relevant scenarios (BAU2, CT, SW) are a very close fit to one another, and the tipping points are conveniently past 2020. $10 say that the World3 model will be reviewed sometime after 2025 and the tipping points will shift forward again to 2035. The idea that somehow the world hasn't changed significantly since 1972 is laughable at best (BAU literally stands for Business As Usual). Of course, if the article was published saying "All is good", it would not have appeared in the press...
@@armentumhominum9931 The devil is in the details. We continuously add new data into climate models to allow for predictions that see further in the future. This models give us a thin "cone" of possible futures that extends into the future, the further from the data end you want to predict, the bigger the cone. When this type of modelling is done correctly, the cone either maintains it's "angle" or it gets decreased (the model is improved). This shows that the original model had validity and keeps it's predictive power (for instance it lets you predict 50 years into the future within ~10% accuracy). The World3 model cone by contrast grows bigger with each revision, because the conclusion is pretty much set in stone (world collapse by 2040), but the timespan gets progressively shorter because so far, the world is not ending. When your predictive model does this, well, it's time to reconsider if you wanted to accurately represent the world or if you aimed for a certain conclusion and played with it until you got what you wanted...
@@theondono Interesting, thanks for the great reply. For real. I'm not a climate change denier, one don't need more than a pair of eyes and memory to see how drastically climate has and is changing. But I also remember the predictions that were taught in schools about climate and how they didn't come true. I think that anything that can be used to further political agendas, and power, it will be used, and climate seems to be one of the top issues used in that direction. Sadly.
I liked the "apartment vs. castle" statement. I visited the main ruins of a castle in Germany and, until the guide mentioned it, it never occurred to me just how COLD those joints got in the winter...
@@Falsk No, no, they used hot stones in the pans instead of fire to avoid accidentally burning down the bed even the castle. The stones ( when cooled off) could be used to defend the castle from the guys freezing outside.😁
@@crazyedo9979 well that is true concerning the pans, but they are also very hot, not something you want in your bed when you don't have control of your body:)
@@martinkent333 If only you were right. I see it in new policies. The globalists and big business have been emboldened to act against the public's best interests to empower/enrich themselves. It's human nature. Try educating yourself rather than assuming. Our doom is our ignorance to it before it's too late to fix it.
Technically, it was more like: Germany: It’s cold winter and we are freezing, we need to increase coal production. France: Wait just a minute, coal is strategic material used in war. I don’t feel comfortable with you having more coal. Germany: But winter. France: Tell you what, we make organization where we can share and more importantly track every coal and steel production so we can keep and eye, I mean organize better distribution for European industries. Germany: Sure. France: And lets make one for nuclear energy. So we can keep track of nuclear material and make sure it’s used for peaceful purposes. Germany: I wasn’t going to … aah, sure.
@@stafer3 except ... the EU is born out of the benelux, the union of Belgium, the Neherlands and Luxembourg which is why Brussels is still the capital of Europe, not Berlin
I was 20 when the Limits to Growth was published. I really did not expect our civilisation to endure until today. I am constantly gobsmacked at how résiliant and innovative humans are, but I’m not encouraged by the general ambivalence and ignorance of our world “leaders”. I’ll be ninety by 2040, if I’m lucky. I’m much more concerned for my children and grandchildren’s future. As they say, “There is no planet B.”
Dude, I'm going to be 32/33. I used to be terrified but now it's hard to feel much other than apathy with occasional anger. I'm an idealist even now though, I guess I have to be. Really though, there's three ways this could go. We either fight against this godawful system and emerge into a more rational and loving way of operating (that doesn't devalue the ecosystem and human life), become crippled by fascism, or some doomed mix of the two. At this rate, we can't predict which it'll be, but society's going to collapse alright. Try to enjoy it while it lasts, and remember, not all that is right is legal.
@@zer-atop3032 I don't value the lives of people who take pleasure in torturing innocent animals as my own. "Being a human being" is not defined by you, it is the entirety of what people do. ie, cutting the leg off a pup and throwing it off a bridge is also being human. I am tired of people pretending vapid concepts such as yours are somehow credible or even desirable.
Your thinking of a movie called good will hunting. It’s fictional. I can’t believe how stupid people are. I really hope an extinction event happens soon. I really really do.
Societies collapse because no population ever believes it could happen to them. Since they believe their system to be eternal, they never deviate from the "business as usual" model. Only when the collapse occurs do , they then scream "Why didn't someone warn us? Why didn't someone do something to stop this?", conveniently forgetting all the times they attacked anyone who dared say that "business as usual" was anything but the greatest path of all.
@@TheBoydTV His entire catalog should be required reading. Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to get back to stacking all the cargo I can get my hands on.
Then there is no worry of that happening to the Anglosphere nations who spend day and night crying 'the sky is falling' and screeching that everything is wrong and our worlds will end if only we don't change change change course.
@@marcuscook5145 Spoken like the weakest form of man that exists, a fascist. Capitalism's built in self-destruction mechanisms don't need any help from a nominal gay population or spoiled suburbanites.
Meanwhile politicians _know_ about all of this, yet are too busy pinning the public against each other and furthering their own agendas to actually do anything about it. I think it's also kinda gross that the critics who state "necessity is the mother of invention" is how we're going to solve these issues. Thing is they're not _wrong,_ humans as whole are notorious for ignoring problems until they're actually threatening something personal to them, it's just the apathetic attitude behind it that's gross.
@@koschmx Oh people absolutely suck, don't get me wrong. They're not excused for their behavior just because bad actors successfully pulled at their sensationalist heartstrings, but you can still put the blame on the skeezy politicians who have the knowledge and power to be able to do something about it and choose not to for whatever, most likely selfish, reasons.
@@w00tyd00d One theory which had been proven to have some truths claimed that the democratic party is funded by the Communist Party of China. The way the party is able to fund the democrats is by using American business’s that are owned by Chinese company’s as a loophole to donate money. The theory then goes on to claim that Chinas end goal is to subject America and permanently buy out all of its farmlands. Unfortunately it looks like the theory is true because I seen news reports of China buying American farmland.
Would love to see a comparison of the various economic doomsday theories of the 50s-80s and see how they've fared. I remember hearing my parents and their friends talking about them in the early 90s, and yet here we are.
I can partially answer that one since I was around back then. Was in High School in the late '60s, when the pollution (I mean all the poisonous ones, not just invisible CO2) was as bad as pictures of Shanghai, China today. You could only see a clear sky over NYC perhaps 2 or 3 days all year. The Hudson River was so poisonous you could die trying to swim in it. A lot of "Doomsday Scenarios" back then, all of which, except for the population explosion, got turned around faster than any model had predicted. There was no CO2 doom scenario at that time. This plays into what this video so well pointed out, that we as a species will always be surprised in the future, for better and for worse. Our scientific models today, even from the "finest minds" can turn out better and/or worse and we aren't as good at predicting all the insane amount of variables as we think we are when we create them.
Just because the descent downward has been slower than initially predicted, that doesn’t mean it isn’t happening. The shape of the middle class in the US has been on a downward trajectory since the 1970’s, I’d start there if you’re looking for a time line to study…
The worst attitudes to develop from this are: 1. It's no problem, so let's continue the status quo and 2. we're already perma-fucked, so let's continue the status quo.
Exactly. Humanity is a problem solving creature. They're at their absolute worst when they ignore their issues whether through willful ignorance or lazy nihilism. I work in medicine and I hate when people say, "blank has no cure." Bullshit, everything has a cure. We just haven't discovered or invented it yet. People need to mobilize faster, though. Fixing problems after they're in the critical stage causes so much damage that can be prevented by fixing them now.
One thing "experts" are pretty consistent at is being terrible at predicting long term changes. Everyone thought that the advent of industrialized warfare in the late 1800s and early 1900s made war between major powers too expensive and too deadly to actually happen large scale. Everyone thought that the destruction of societies, economies, and massive death toll of WW1 would make another war impossible. Everyone thought the development of nuclear weapons would make war impractical after WW2 since a conflict could quickly spiral until all life on earth would get wiped out and wed enter a new era of peace as large militaries became useless when 1 nuke could wipe an entire fleet, army, or city off a map. eve reyone thought the USSR was too big, too powerful, and too interconnected to ever collapse. Everyone thought Japans explosive growth would lead to them taking over the world and surpassing even America on the world stage. Everyone thought that after India gained independence they'd join the ranks of the USSR and US as a global superpower and lead the "third world" would would be a 3rd global empire like Allies or the communist world. Even as recently as the 90s many people thought that Germany would become a world power and start expanding their power just like before WW1 and WW2 into a 4th reich if East and West Germany reunited.
Our biggest problem is waste. We waste EVERYTHING. Clothing,food,water,energy. You name it and we waste it. If it doesn't fit or if it's broken, we just throw it away. Waste is by far our biggest issue
I agree with that but the base problem is overpopulation way too many consumers on the planet and the big money companies just get wealthier because the products they produce like you say get thrown away. There are just too many people on the planet.
To quote Historia Civilis roughly “On average there has been a great power conflict every 50 years all the way back to when clear superpowers existed and even before… with two BIG exceptions, after the Napoleonic Wars, and right now” Only two times where there was peace for an extended period of time, a none that lasted more than 100 years Edit: No we aren’t all gonna die soon, what I quoted is an observation of the pattern not a fundamental law of the universe, so calm down
The United States has had major conflicts every 80 years, approximately, since it first formed. 1780: revolutionary war, 1860: civil war, 1940: ww2, 2020: we’ll see what happens this decade I guess
"A lot of technological innovation these days is just major companies finding new and innovative ways for you to waste your time consuming advertiser content." - this is so true, disappointing, and frightening.
Don’t worry guys, I got this, I’ll stop the collapse. You will know I was successful with my mission when you wake up on January 1st, 2041 to a still functioning world.
Thanks Cody, I'm glad somebody has a handle on this... AOC has us dead in ten, MIT in twenty, so I'm going to put my faith faith in your capable hands & hold you to your mission goal.
So, a little extra bit for people who are curious : systems dynamics models are a bit different than the modern machine learning systems we generally picture today. they do not have the ability to be trained and learn, instead they are hand built, usually using multiple theories that are then chained together into bigger 'systems'. The 'historical data' bit is for hand validation, you run known datasets through it and see how well your theory does, then you have to hand make adjustments. It is still pretty heavily used today since it is much more explainable than ML, but requires a lot more up front work and is not as useful for things like recommendation systems (the core of search, advertising, and product/media browsing) so it gets a lot less attention.
With ML models, or any model for that matter relies on a human inputting the data. So a human would have to put in data for economic indicators like population, GDP etc, and ML model would still have human bias in it. For example the point the Aussie guy raised about the 1972 model not having climate change included. If for example ML technology was about in 1972 the researchers wouldn't have put in climate data into the model. If we were to build a model be it ML or whatever the flavour of the month is the model would have biases
@@ctb1977 Yeah. But that does impose remodelling every now and then, not dismissal of the whole thing. More often then not, when arguing about biases in models or data, what you argue about exhausts it's effect in the third decimal place.
I think we should remember that when a civilization collapses it doesn't always mean everyone dies immediately, it usually means people slowly migrate elsewhere.
It means people are going to die, slowly in horrible ways. Starvation, fires, weather extremes and changing patterns. While people might slowly migrate elsewhere that's not going to be an option for the poorest and most vulnerable. Which, to the corporatacy, I guess they're expendable.
Our civilization will collapse predominantly because of the fundamentally flawed economic preconceptions of unlimited growth divorced from physical resource constraints, as displayed on this channel.
This. But instead, society insists on operating on a mindset of, "we can just keep having exponential population and economic growth forever!" (Keep in mind that the global population had _doubled_ just in the last 70 years.) No. No we can't. A society that operates this way will eventually collapse in on itself.
my husband and I have discussed this extensively. It's one of the major pitfalls of capitalism as it currently exists. We've discussed that a collapse will likely wind up being that of how we gain resources, but the question is - will what comes after capitalism be better or worse? Who knows?
One thing I’m always critical of when it comes to the narrative of societal collapse in many of these predictions is the very same narrative of “Rising from nothing and returning to nothing”. If anything, it’s the opposite. Societies rise from other societies and they return to the societies that claim their legacy. Rome didn’t end with a “great cataclysmic collapse”, nor with the Ottoman conquest of Constantinople; Empires up to today proclaim to be the continuation of Rome, or of empires that came long before them, and to be honest, will probably continue on long after. Empires don’t crumble, they change. A lot of these narratives often forget that evolution doesn’t mean progress, it means change and adaptation.
When civilisations collapse, very little knowledge and information makes it through to the society that comes out of it. Technically societies do emerge from nothing back to nothing.
It will teach everyone a life lesson that excessive consumerism, continuing to elect corrupt and decrepit politicians, and widespread use of monoculture farming and other unsustainable habits by other industries is the ultimate bane triangle of humanity.
Monoculture? Really? When I look around I see everyone looking for or creating their own cultures. That lack of unity is more a problem than a mono culture. It is a fact that people who live in and around other like themselves contributes to happiness. That is why I eland is the happy place on Earth. Not without problems but compared to everyone else, especially the USA, they are very satisfied with life.
@@icestationzebra8636the United States is massive so applying a monoculture to assume everywhere is under the same material conditions is stupid. Cultures that are augmented to benefit different locations and not cause excessive harm is good thing yes
Guys, it's been a rough couple of years for humanity. We've been through a couple of defeats. It's good to finally be ahead in something. So keep up the good work everyone. Cheers!
I know that the world sucks right now, but if we just give up and resign ourselves to the belief that it's never gonna get better, then it's never gonna get better!
@J Maxx I see what you mean. I guess I'm trying to say that the response should be one of concern, but optimism that it can be averted, not one of inevitability. Of course, negative things can be and are reality, I'm not denying that, I'm just trying to say that being a doomer about it all the time isn't very productive. I probably could have worded that better.
I was at MIT economics at the time, and I met Prof Forester several times. You have to remember that the 70s were a time of huge commodity price increases. Many people, not just economists, extrapolated this out to mean that we would eventually run out of things. Later this became known as "peak oil" etc.I remember one paper that said we would soon run out of copper because the minimum minable grade was assumed to be 0.1%. None of this occurred. The '80s were a time a commodity price collapse. This was due to Increased production, tech driven substitution - all the usual things. Prices in real terms have never recovered. Great for us shorts. You should do a video on this whole era, the Club of Rome etc. It would go well with your wry delivery.
Sir, the same thing is being said for lithium. They are saying that we have not enough lithium to replace the batteries in Electric Vehicles. What an Irony! Might be our future generations have an answer.
it doesn't matter if the predictions are off by decades or even centuries. True, we might find new unexpected sources. But the fact is, as Elon Musk eloquently puts it, extracting non-renewable sources from a limited environment will inevitably lead to resource depletion, even if the timing of it is uncertain. That is just mathematics, if you keep subtracting from a finite number you will eventually reach 0.
I read about Peak Oil years ago and it was a startling concept. I even thought that it was imminent and things were going to get tough. That was 17 years ago. Granted, we have pandemics and product shortages, but the world certain writers envisioned (looking at you, James Kunstler) definitely hasn't come to pass.
The average person has never been so poor. Millions of families are struggling financially as living expenses hit the highest levels in more than four decades. Over 60% of our country lives paycheck to paycheck and about 40% earns poverty wages. Even after working all their lives, more than a quarter of older people have no savings and many believe they will never be able to retire in dignity, while around 55% of elderly people try to survive on an income of less than €25,000 a year. My primary concern is how to grow my reserve of €300k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains.
It's scary how true this message is. What steps can we take to generate more income during quantitative tightening? Also, on the contrary, how can we profit in times of quantitative easing? Where should we put our investment money now to better prepare for the future and a liquidity crisis?
As a new investor it's always great to hear from a person who has gone through all the difficult times and come ahead of it. It's unnerving to see your portfolio go from green to red but as mentioned if you have invested in quality names just have to keep adding to them and stay the course.
@@cuddyb9631 Right. I'm sure the idea of a coach sounds controversial to a few, but new study by investopedia found that demand for investment coaching sky-rocketed over 41% since the rona-outbreak till date. Based on firsthand encounter I can say for certain, their skillsets are top notch, I've built a solid 4 years+ working relationship with my coach, gaining rare but useful insights and after subsequent investing, accruing approx. $1.75m in savings thus far.
@@kaylawood9053 I have no Advisør at all and this recent dip which i feel was triggered by war resulting to inflation and so many other factors could hit my portfolio so hard. who would you recommend i seek out for in times like this?
Quick point about quantum computers seeing how you mention them; They're very good at certain specific tasks, but in 90%+ of tasks the heavily Moore's Law affected general purpose computers are used for, those general purpose computers are far better at it.
Not true. Quantum computers are at least as efficient as a standard computer and many times more in other tasks. The problem is getting a quantum computer to the memory of a normal computer is extremely difficult and expensive.
@@Joso997 It's not just high performance computing (what I wrote my master's thesis in), it's a small subset of it and thus even less relevant to anyone outside of the scientific community. Sure, there's breaking encryption, but that's just going to turn into a very lopsided cat and mouse game if they seriously go into it. Quantum computers can only effectively break encryption keys about as long as many qubits as they have. Using longer keys is trivial, but the difficulty of making a quantum computer increases exponentially with the number of qubits.
Hey, I don't know if you will ever read this but you were one of the most influential factors in me taking up economics as my degree at college. I would be studying BS Economics with major focus on mathematics, statistics and programming with minor focus on environmental engineering. Thanks to your amazing videos for making me fall in love the subject
Just a heads up to be careful with this channel. While at times EE is insightful, he's given a lot of bad takes lately with certain videos, often due to poor research. Money & Macro has a few response videos to those bad takes that can offer you a balanced perspective. In fact, I'd recommend not getting information from only one resource, but from multiple resources in order to ensure you're not getting a biased viewpoint about any particular subject - especially economic theory.
The guy didn't say "I use this as my Bible", the guy said "this channel gave me a fascination for economics, so now I'm learning it." ... That said, I just went and subscribed to that other channel, because, like the guy above but minus the college part, I, too, have gained a fascination for economics. So, thanks for sharing other sources.
World govts are colluding together at the expense of their own citizens to usher in new world order. Military checkpoints will be set up on us interstates for covid vaccination certification. Camps will be activated around the world. Police state/genocide is coming. New world order led by obama and pope francis is coming. Jesus christ is coming back for the rapture. Get ready. Dont believe the coming ufo alien abduction narrative
Just stumbled on this today - thanks for an interesting video. I used to do systems dynamics programming back in the 1980s-90s (I'm that old!) using a program called LISP, and we would do Monte-Carlo type repetitions (changing the input paremeters slightly many times, either to simulate some statistical distribution or on a planned theoretical basis) just like this study did (which I have NOT read or studied). Most people probably aren’t familiar with SD but it’s fairly easy to explain - think of a diagram with some variables in it, with lines with arrows following from one to another, where every variable has things it influences and things that are influencing it. There are a few things worth considering. First - obviously - is the model itself, barring some kind of external unmodeled shock, like a nuclear war. Also, the variables included, and how to measure them, as well as each one’s SD relationship with other variables (for example population, which is (relatively) fairly simple - how is it defined (including age demographics, gender distribution, health, education, etc?), how those are measured (people living, healthy people living, some statistical distribution of them, etc?), and what other measured variables are influenced by each, as well as what variables each influences (years of productive work, innovative capabilities, urban versus rural living, and so forth). Well, it can get very complicated and the theoretical SD models that preceed the programming often have mini-models embedded inside them. Sadly, SD models inevitably wind out to some steady state-stasis or go wildly out of control, both of which are outcomes are intuitively not very likely - you just have to follow the models out far enough to see this (apparently beyond 2040 for this one). The apex of SD modeling popularity was in the 1980s when we imagined that we were smart enough to capture enough variables and their relationships to actually understand how things would go. Time has largely shown that not to be the case. SD models are interesting, but probably mainly not for predicting how things will turn out but in thinking about the form of the model and - as we learn and observe - refining the model over time in understanding how things affect one-another. It’s VERY rare for a systems dynamics model to be able to make good predictions about the ‘future’ (although as I say I don’t know this one specifically.) Perhaps modern society WILL collapse in 2040, but if it does, I suspect it will be for reasons aside from those of this SD model.
UN is projecting europe's population peaks between 2025-2030, and somewhat rapidly declines afterwards. There's little in UN projections suggesting a mass european migration anywhere, as almost all the top tier countries have similar UN projections. The only ones who didn't was Britain and USA, shown to be "leveling off" instead.
@@devinfraserashpole4753 circlejerking about the US collapsing gives them something conveniant to direct their hate towards and give them an excuse to be lazy, useless assholes in society. Dont take statements like his seriously
"Worst case scenario? - Well then I guess it's time to learn how to forage food in the wilderness. Which you can right now with Skillshare" Greatest sponsor segue in history. Well done.
Quite so. Though, with severe resource depletion, there may be no wilderness left in 2040. At least, not enough to support all 10 billion people seeking out that wilderness.
EE: "Innovation today is basically major companies finding innovative ways for you to waste time on ad sponsored content. Yes, I know the irony that I'm part of the problem but, here you go, have an ad..." *Udemy advert plays *Skips ad EE: "What a good little consumer you are." 😂😂😂
It’s ok, the way these idiots are running things, Babylon will never let you retire. Downsizing and quitting is the only realistic way to take time to enjoy life at this point
Easy to answer: 2 or 3 generations have been sacrificed. Also the minimum wage is increasing a lot faster than the raises for $25 / hr that have almost stayed the same wage for 10 years.
It is a real shame that frugality and material efficiency is not valued. The only way that it can be valued in our economic model is if external costs are properly priced in. Most governments are resistant to doing this lest if affects our consumption driven model.
This reminds of the fact that the companies that pioneer and sell us our technology design it to be disposed of and replaced rather than repaired. They actively shut down and dissuade repair.
@@Mitzoplick best example I can think of are in-counter motors from the 50s or earlier, one motor for your blender, mixer, whatever! And all metal no breaky! Now? Get one of those things to last 10yrs I dare ya 🤣
@@EliteSniperTV The motors inside the cases of blenders, mixers, etc are themselves intact. But the plastic stick of a mixer broke, the blender glass jar broke and there was no spare available. Back in the 80's my dad had a lot of motors salvaged from apliances in his attic, and now I'm 49 and I already have my quote of perfect but useless motors, too.
Frugality is pushed for the people who have barely anything, where it's discouraged for people who own the majority of stocks and other forms of wealth.
One Mistake: Kings in wealthy nations during medieval times never ate cholera infested food. They also had enough servants for hot baths, fresh clothes, lit fireplaces in every room, or any other services you need. Obviously there were other problems (like their doctors still only knowing a fraction of what they do today).
Not only that, they inhaled much clearer air, used clearer water. Had more physical strength, skills. Life was simple for average folks but they needed sort of survival skills.
Yeah. It's a common misconception among economists especially. I always hear them saying the middle class is richer today than a king from the past. One could only arrive at this conclusion if they are subconciously pushing a 'Grow the Pie', 'Taxation is Theft' agenda. Being rich is about more than how many air-conditioners you can afford. It's about power. It's about literally owning people. It's about the ratio of the planet that belongs to them.
Elon is not the richest man on earth the richest men on earth Live in the Middle East because They don’t have to file taxes with there country so we don’t know there true net worth thy got generations and generations of all your money that entire countries are buying from them
Every generation blames the one before for their problems. Eventually you realize that it does nothing beneficial and begin to work them out for yourselves.
In aviation, we are trained to guard against 'excessive professional courtesy.' This principle encourages individuals of lower rank to speak up if they observe a mistake being made, regardless of the person's seniority, age, or level of experience. As a flight crew, our survival hinges on the practice of assertive communication. It is crucial that we pass down this mindset to the next generation to prevent them from being trapped in the same ineffective cycle that has hindered us. Striking the right balance is key - showing enough respect to be heard, while being articulate enough to persuade older, more established individuals who may be hesitant to relinquish power and status. As a community, if we can collectively recognize that we are pioneering a societal landscape unlike any before, we must embrace the realization that navigating this evolving dynamic is a continuous learning journey. None of us holds all the solutions, despite some feigning otherwise.
DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM AND GLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM, AND then a nice bowl of ice cream, and then MORE DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM AND GLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM..... YOU GO GIRL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Except the Baby Boomers are more responsible for dismantling America and selling the bits for profit than any other generation in the history of the country I don't care about them at all but they did do that
I remember learning that the average lifespan of a civilisation/society is about two centuries before there is significant upheaval. Post-colonial Western culture is on track to implode as it is right now.
makes sense. england and china are still up and running but they changed drastically over time , we haven’t changed much but our rules so i agree we are going to change how our government works really soon
What is the more frightening idea than the our civilization coming to and end is the fact that there are many in government working actively towards this goal.
Its not coming to and end per say. Just and end to the way we know it. I believe this is why they are doing the great reset. One world government. With one world governmnet how could it ever go broke. Its bad for us either way, it will be war either way and sooner than later. . I believe we can all agree that the u.s. cannot go on like it is.
I could see society, American especially, hitting a scenario roughly equivalent to Post WWII....Recycling was inherent, I still remember Mom, and Grandparents saving even bits of string, etc. You grew your own food and supplemented with the local market. I grew up as a child with this model.
Yes, I have a lot of magazines from the 1940s. In one Mag (either "LIFE" or "Newsweek"), people are told to bring used fat to the local Butcher who will PAY you for it. Butchers collected the fat and gave it to the government, to be made into gunpowder! WHO KNEW?
no offense but it seemed to people (especially those live in developing countries) that Americans have been living a rich life for so long that they have no idea what it means to "save" things
Number of push ups and sit ups I did - behind schedule Saving money for financial security - behind schedule Collapse of Western society- ahead of schedule! Oh boy!
"Economists are about as useful as astrologers in predicting the future (and, like astrologers, they never let failure on one occasion diminish certitude on the next)." - Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr.
Economists occupy the same knowledge niche as theologists from the middle age. While other subjects focus on specific topics, they encompass everything.
Resources are not entirely known due to some being " hidden" from calculation. I had a friend who worked in the oil fields in Texas in the 1970's almost all of those wells that struck oil were capped and not used. HE said their companies policy was based on the federal long game "use theirs first" at the expense of us paying more. The oil crisis was entirely a political game that was made at the expense of us.
IDK 🤔...... I remember hearing something similar about the "World's Oil - Fossil Fuel" running out? I'm calling BS ... Oil is a natural element created by the planet. Air, water, Volcano Maga and other elements are products of the Earth's life cycle. Fossil Fuel sounds misleading otherwise we could make oil out of people?
@@rarrodrig4703 Oil is a byproduct of dead organisms being cooked in layers of rock with large amounts of heat and pressure. Here’s the thing though… it takes a really long time for this process to happen (like millions of years) there is many problems with this. We don’t know exactly how much there is left or how the demand will be in the future or if the planet can “create” enough oil to keep up with us humans modern demands. Not to mention there are some who don’t want to step into the new electric age. Similar to how many old folks have problems going from the mechanical age to the digital age. We will be using dead old organisms (oil) for a while…….
@@rarrodrig4703 fossil fuel IS a misleading name for it, because many people think we get oil from dinosaur bones etc. We get oil mostly from ancient fern clumps and plant beds. All of the natural oil in the world is older than the first dinosaurs
This is some serious conspiracy theorising there? Just do yourself a favour and look up US oil production curve. I understand when someone does not get the fact, that we hit the global oil production peak. But the US crude oil peak is 50 years in the past. The fact, that in the US shale oils are being tapped now tells you how desperate things have become. Shales have an approximate 2:1 EROI as opposed to over 20:1 for petroleum. Think about that.
@ME This is actually a good question. First of all, crude oil was made "by nature" over millions of years. This "free" oil is used up to about 50% and the remaining 50% will be more and more expensive to extract. Now to make oil, you need organic matter, high pressure and time. If you do not want to wait another few million years, you need to increase the pressure and/or temperature, which requires energy. What this means is, that although we could produce oil "in a lab" (and we actually already do in biofuels) the EROI is extremly bad (if not negative). I know of two processes: crude from algae and biofuels from corn. It is argued that biofuel has an EROI of 0.8-1.2 ... even if it is positive, 1.2 is very low. You need about 350°C and 3000 psi to produce oil from algae. The EROI numbers I found on Algal Biocrude range from 0.12 to 0.35. While it might be reasonable to produce biofuel for product use (plastics, medicine, etc.), it is utterly impossible to use it in energy production and very bad as a fuel. If we exclude transportation and energy, we are still left with 40-50% of global oil going into other sectors ade 50% of energy currently from oil having to come from other sources. So TLDR; we can produce oil but it will not solve many of the problems caused by running out of oil.
Not to nitpick, but while Pompeii was destroyed...the rest of the Roman Empire went on its business. And when the western half of the empire dwindled away the eastern half kept trucking along for hundreds of years. Sure, the Spanish took control over the Aztec empire, but the civilization didn't revert into hunting and gathering. I can't think of a time in human history where there was a complete collapse of human civilization around the entire world so what makes this different in such a spectacular way? BTW, love the content and look forward to the next one. These are the comments of a fan
This is a global system chain. The pollution, exploitation, climate change, neoliberal control of the planet is almost universal here. We will all be affected in pretty drastic ways. Choose any point on earth and we can predict what the factors and pressures of this global collapse will bring.
1,200 BCE "invasion of the sea peoples" was a fairly catastrophic collapse of civilizations in the Mediterranean and middle east (for reasons still unknown). Perhaps not world-wide (India and China were too far away to be affected), but quite widespread. The big difference is that modern societies are MUCH more highly connected (and tightly coupled) across the world, so systemic problems in one region can be contagious in other areas too. An example is the recent supply chain issues, which have become virtually worldwide, as labor problems in one region become transportation backlogs, which turn into shortages of containers, which affect shipping worldwide (with feedback loops too).
They also had an intact environment to fall back on and reasonable population sizes that could be managed during a crisis. We don't have those luxuries anymore, our explosive population growth _necessitates_ modern farming technologies to keep alive (let alone happy), and our environmental destruction has destabilized many of nature's feedback loops. This collapse will be much more dangerous and destructive.
I came to say bronze age collapse, but 2 people beat me to it. In any case the bronze age collapse was so total that it nearly un-did the neolithic revolution. So it would take a serious confluence of incredible events but we could fall that far.
It's not going to happen overnight. It's already slowly creeping in. Cheap energy sources are slowly disappearing. Renewables only look cheap if we ignore they heavily rely on fossiles to get their raw materials out of the ground, to be built and deployed. We don't really need to debate it though. Time will tell if that's right or wrong.
The original question asked thousands of years ago was, "What do we need to ensure our survival?" The answer is the same as it always was, "a suitable world that can support life." Everything else is gravy.
Now define 'life' ... Since we're talking on the net, we couldn't do that without some communication device and energy, both of which 150 years ago were unimaginable and yet they lived (obviously!) ...
@@apostolosvranas4499 Did you know that up until a 150 years ago, when someone in your family died their body was usually discovered by morning. Now, for some people it can be weeks or even months before they visit them. Suicide rates are higher than they have ever been in history for children. Maybe the first question, when it comes to life is, what is quality? Sure you can call your mom on the other side of the world anytime of day, but how often do you hug her? Sure you can take your children to a movie, but when is the last time yo told then a story as you drifted of to sleep with them?
I read “Limits to Growth” back in the 1970’s. It had a couple of assumptions that didn’t play out. The primary one was that it assumed that the world would come to the level of prosperity that the US enjoyed in 1970, and that the resources to achieve that level remained constant. The amount of resources required to achieve 1970’s prosperity has dropped dramatically. We use less of everything to achieve higher living standards. On the third hand, that only pushes the dates into to future a few years.
@@sevenman9672 1) Mainly because employees want more money to risk dying of Co vid. It's not so much a labor shortage, as a shortage of people willing to work for chump change. ( *This is capitalism, businesses have no given right to cheap labor.* )
I'm glad some people are making this point. The historical record has shown Malthusianism to be wrong over and over again. I wish there had been a section on Julian Simon in this video.
I read "limits to the growth" some months ago. A key point in their final remarks I think is that evaluating the model results they envisaged a future where "some problems may arise, that don't have a technological solution" . A mindset change or shift then is needed, I believe this phrase is quite meaningful.
I work in tech and the tech industry is rife with the idea that technology can fix everything and that's not true , technology can fix a lot , it can make really complex calculations nearly instantaneously and process years worth of data in the past in seconds. But technologies limitation is humanity and if we run into a problem we as humans can't solve technology isn't magic which will miraculously solve it for us . It's the tragedy of relying on technology too much , technology can improve human lives but it can't become a replacement for the act of living as a human .
@@mariopot789 humanity is usually the weakest link within the systems that humanity creates. The beginning of transhumanism, is to improve the behavior and logic of the human element.
They really needed a sophisticated model to to predict that "some problems may arise without tech solution"? It really depends on the specifics of the problem. And time marches on even if there is no solution, so that means society will have to adapt. Mother nature always has a solution. One of the most obvious problems is overpopulation, which no nation wants to address because of the religious implications. In the past, wars, famine, and disease kept the population in check. We will likely deal with one or more of those on a large scale.
Technology is also often limited by the corporations that own it, so no corporation is going to develop tech that solves the worlds problems if it won’t make the corporation money. Until there are financial incentives or government regulation for corporations to make the world a better place with technology, technology will only serve to make the ultra-wealthy more wealthy.
A weak dollar can signal an economic downturn, making me to ponder on what are the best possible ways to hedge against inflation, and I've overheard people say inflation is a money-eater thus worried about my savings around $200k.
The stock market is a way to hedge against inflation. Most notably amidst recession, investors need to understand where and how to allocate funds to hedge against inflation and still make profits.
in my opinion, the impact of the rise or fall of the U.S. dollar on investments is multi-faceted but learning how to grow your money has never been easier than now that you can explore and experience a truly diverse marketplace passively by using a well-performing portfolio-advisor.
@@mayacho4910 The stock market is down 20%. Keeping my money in the bank could be no good but investing is riskier, I wish to find better value deals as asset prices keep decreasing but lack the skillset, mind if I look up your advisor? I admit this is the only way for amateurs like myself.
"Necessity is the mother of invention" is basically blind faith in technology. It can seem true because it hasn't failed yet, but when you are looking backwards from a place where civilization is prospering, of course it will always be true. By most definitions of necessity, the first time invention fails necessity would also be the last.
The problem is that soon an event called the "termination shock" happens and it's pretty much a series of events that cause a feedback loop and once it starts our already collapsing society will not be able do ANYTHING about it. P much billionares gonna flee the planet and as termination shock slowly kills of everyone they will watch from mars as earth goes into a runaway greenhouse and becomes venus 2.0 I mean who knows? Maybe the scorching venus was also home to a civilisation only to destroy themself eventually, i think that kinda explains why no aliens: Everyone kills themselfs via greediness before they could go into space in big numbers
You're wrong. Invention is the process of failure that leads to the result you very gladly enjoy. Inform about how tech you use work and how the world gets affected by it, there's no such thing as "blind" trust when you know how things work.
@@TheXxdaknessxX Well yes the problem is that our "failure" will be termaination shock and if it starts it's gonna become nearly imposible to stop and given the fact how selfish some people are combined with our greed, distrust and general divergence (leanguages and countries) the chanches of sucessfully preventing termination shock is imposible. So in a nutshell capitalism, greed, distrust = Termination shock guaranteed
I've been saying that for years! I agree. I'm 25 and seriously worried about the direction we are headed and have been for years trying to make a difference, but the whole industry is against us, and I'm laughed off as a hippy for caring. 🤦♂️
I'm 26 and I've been washing my hair with flour, making my oen toothpaste and collect my handwashing water to not use toilet paper anymore But while my neighbor says "meat is my vegetable" and the amount of garbage I pickup on the street it all seems useless... Since the end is near at least I will be able to live normally as I am now and won't have to do too many adjustments lol
You must be in the Arlington library in DC lone wanderer, get me that library catalog for my book the wasteland survival guide and there will be something in it for you, hugs and kisses Moira.
An apocalypse would likely instantly erase digital technology, all this data would become inaccessible. People don't appreciate enough how fleeting all this is.
"When are backs are against the wall, we will innovate." The thing is, while new innovations are needed, we have a lot of the tools we need already. We need a world that doesn't focus on profits. We need drastically less consumption, degrowth, and a simpler life style. We have a lot of things that could help solve problems but they don't work with our current economic system. Amazing video and details.
CS major here with a fun fact(tm): Moore's Law was not an observation or a prediction, it was an imperative--a production target for the company Moore worked for to double transistor count per unit price every 18 months.
We broke Moore's Law as soon as we invented Multi-Core CPUs. Because with Multi-Cores you can easily double your computing power, until other bottlenecks emerge. As Grace Hooper once said, an Electron can only go about a foot in a nanosecond inside of a vacuum.
I had a chance for a conversation with Jay Forrester, the MIT professor who developed the Dynamo simulation model used in this Limits to Growth study and the supervisor of the graduate students who produced it. He was not impressed. His problem was not so much the methodology as it was the quality of the data that was used to feed it. Apparently, though not surprisingly, it was woefully poor. And while this problem may have been adddressed in the intervening decades, it will never be solved completely. Thus, while the precautionary principle might well justify heeding the advice it gives, the model should never be taken as an oracle.
I believe that, according to this video our computing power and data input won't be advanced enough by the time a collapse happens anyway. To self analyze all living data beyond buying and selling to the point of becoming viable enough to be called an oracle? I mean with how advanced Tik Tok's tracking is, it could be partially possible in 10 years. The question is if humans will dictate decisions based off it's results regardless, but it's no different than market analysts trying to figure out everything today, just another tool.
@@SolidKnight64 There is a realm of the universe which no amount of data will ever capture, indeed science is methodologically designed to ignore. That is intention, arguably the most important attribute of a conscious mind. I will give you an example. No database in the world would be able to predict that Putin would invade Ukraine. It was so manifestly stupid!
Forrester also applied his modelling techniques to urban system dynamics to argue for cuts to welfare spending to motivate growth, in spite of the model's inability to simulate intra-urban inequality, and went as far as writing right wing columns based on this insight for an audience that didn't understand what he was doing... so talented mathematician and engineer as he was, I wouldn't take his word on economics
@@joshuavargas8279 This doesn't sound like the man I met, but I am prepared to believe you. The fact is, nobody really understands, although many profit by saying they do.
"As soon as humanity's back is against the wall..." the reactions to COVID and anthropogenic climate change seem to show that even if the innovation is there, the support for it and wide adoption is not guaranteed by a long shot.
You seem to have that backwards. The support for being pragmatic about "climate change" is very alive... as stupid as it may be. It is completely impractical as there are no innovations to make up the ground necessary, and there aren't even enough materials to make it remotely viable. It's all a joke. Enjoy.
@The Smith of Lies COVID response is a bit of a poor example to use. The reason is there are different interpretations of "back against the wall". There's no denying that the rate the vaccines were produced is outstanding, and had COVID's death rate been in the order of 50% everyone would have scrambled to take the vaccines and would have followed every other precaution. So, if we're all in agreement that our back is against the wall, we'll do amazing things.
The data doesn't suggest our back is against the wall in either case, and in fact suggests otherwise. There are problems but those are far from the most threatening to civilization.
@@failyourwaytothetop Doesn't take a high death rate for a disease to collapse a society as interconnected as ours. Without lockdowns, travel restrictions and vaccines, the virus would've already formed hundreds of widespread variants, some more deadly than others. We survived deadlier diseases in the past only because travel wasn't as widespread and common as it is today.
This is really weird to see just after starting Foundation. The president banishes the professor from MIT to a remote uninhabited, inhospitable island to record all of human history, so that it may build back faster and stronger.
The cleonic dynasty ends at the end of the season.....the foundation main goal is not to record history but to end the cleonic dynasty and free the empire
@@Ian-lh9di The purpose of the foundation is very much what is originally claimed, to shorten the intergalactic dark age, it's just that the intended method is a little different. Shame that the series changes so much from the books tho
@@thecryingsoul oh no I’m so upset to see that! The books are some of the best I’ve ever read but I haven’t seen the show yet! That makes me not sure I want to watch it, Game of thrones was bad enough.
@@jannd8170 My father, who is a bigger Asimov fan than I found the changes to be alright, so opinions will likely differ. I think my biggest issue with it more so has to do with the way these additions absolutely ruin the pacing of the (already fairly slow) books, and that much of the focus is taken from the foundation itself, and put on the showwriter's OCs instead
I feel like if societal collapse happens, it would be more due to the opposition to meaningful change rather than directly due to the 5 variables tracked (though, they are both heavily influenced by and heavily influence this) Germany was fine with closing down their nuclear power plants in the mid of global warming crisis. People often chose one much more damaging thing over the other much more efficient one due to being ill-informed, biased or intentionally miss-informed by interested or ill-informed parties
Nuclear power the single most expensive form of energy generation, and Tschernobyll was unbelievably disastrous here in Europe. Thousands lost their lives to radiation, and even more were born with disabilities cause their mothers got radiated while pregnant. Angela Merkel saw a historic opportunity to break the grasp of power providers on subsidies and took it. She is a studied physicist, its not a thing of ill-information. In addition to that, nuclear reactors are heavily reliant on cool fresh water for cooling, a ressource that will only get more expensive during climate heating. Climate change is a problem of overindustrialization, it cant be fixed with even more industrialization.
@@beerenmusli8220 you are the embodiment of stupid misinformation. Fuel costs can be given per kWh and tend to be highest for oil fired generation, with coal being second and gas being cheaper. Nuclear fuel is much cheaper per kWh. The disaster from all the combined radiation-caused incidents like chernobyl pales in comparison to fossil-fuel related deaths like black lung from coal mining. Finally, nuclear reactors are almost always built next to the sea where they can utilize the literal ocean to cool down their reactors. Stop lying just to push an agenda.
Yeah, that is why tech lagging is there. Irony is that they underegulate internet compare to nuclear and biotech and military. Plus, more medieval war.
Is a pity all the fear with nuclear energy. There is a lot of misunderstanding with what could be our ticket to the future. Starting with fission energy, and progressively move into fusion, and you have the ultimate energy source. And all that without mentioning all the advanced tech we couls create having a nearly unlimited and powerful energy source like nuclear fusion.
We'll get about 30% into the "business as usual" scenario before companies take notice that they're not making enough money, start raising prices, and further speed up the process.
which is what makes reshaping and assigning greater power to government important. if the people use the government to change the incentive structure of the economy, it will shape the way we operate our businesses so that it is sustainable and has the least impact on the environment. so reward good behaviour we as a society value at its core and punish damaging behavior. if we say we are already doing this, it needs to be done better and quicker whilst backed by science and facts.
@@christianlee7244 government is not designed for the vast majority of people. It's not our game to rig. It's rigged against us to keep us out What ur saying isn't wrong. But it's not for us. They give us these illusions but the truth is democracy is for the rich landowners and that's that.
The current state of the world is concerning, but hey, economic forecasting is like driving a car blindfolded and getting instruction from a person looking out the rear window.
good analogy, but it assumes economists are ignorant of history (good ones arent) and that human nature isnt predictably cyclical. meaning if youve seen enough occurrences of events in the past you can more accurately dictate future direction depending on desired outcome. still found your analogy humorous
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Well that kind of sucks
I'm calling bs, on all of it.
Doesnt take into account Risk of WAR and how countries would purposefully manipulate economies and industrial output to Crash societies (On Purpose) on an attempt to prevent future wars. (Look to China's current economic and societal collapse, which is both internally engineered by accident aka Communist Dictator/internal culture of corruption,... to outside Engineering from worlds countries removing businesses and manufacturing from China to other countries.) recent example (India Confiscated illegal Pakistan Nuclear Material shipment to China causing China to alter its Nuclear policy as it no longer has enough nuclear material for producing the nuclear weapons it was trying to threaten other countries with) While there is going to be (LOCAL) societal collapse and/or restructuring. it by far appears to be due to manipulation for specific end goals not by any lack of resources or too much of anything else.
Hey guys. If we work really hard, we can achieve that goal by 2030
Throw a brick though a window.
Assassinate a politician.
It's the little, everyday things you can do to help bring this world crumbling down.
Thats the spirit 💪
@@TheOpalHammer Wouldn't killing the right politicians halt the process of collapse?
#stretchgoals
@@cgm4379 killing right-_wing_ politicians
Saying "oh hey society is predicted to collapse in 18 years" and following it up with "the first 1000 fans to sign up with this link get a free month of skillshare!" is some disconnected dystopian ish.
Gotta eat in the meantime.
@@JBinFL Considering RUclips to be a job is hilarious.
@@meh3247 and yet here we are
@@meh3247 I don’t know man there’s plenty of people who thrive on RUclips. Fastest way to become a millionaire
@@kays8976 fastest ≠ safest
Maybe electing people who won’t be alive for society’s collapse isn’t such a bright idea
So true
Corrupt career politicians like Biden have been pushing socialist policies their entire careers
Good luck with that. They are in control
@@DigitalDissident LOL apparently you don't know what socialism is then. Biden has been a centrist his whole career - firmly in the neoliberal camp like all politicians.
Let's elect kindergarteners
Living through the birth of internet
Living through the birth of social media
Living through the acceleration of technology
Living through the societal collapse
Paranoia IS an adorable thing, eh?
dying as the Climate catastrophe makes life in the lower 48 impossible
@@BarryBozeman Bottomfeeders love to keep the suicide rates up by spewing sensationalism, paramoia and disinformation. YOU GO GIRL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Everything is fine, Dude. You take the bait and call it truly divine. Covid's over, it's Spring! Let's chat!
Being part of GenX is, in part, witnessing how vibrant and pristine the world was (not long ago) to then observe humanity rapidly becoming an eX-lifeform (while possibly simultaneously seeing the collapse of not only society/civilizations worldwide, but also the collapse of the biosphere itself). Living in the Time of Dying (documentary, check it out)
@@sparkythancztwise Well informed folks are confident and smile. You are oned by paranoids who bait you and stoke the Paranoia Machine daily, Dude. Any education? Let's chat about your passion for doom and gloom...........
"This video is brought to you by Skill, Share. Thanks to SkillShare you can [learn all of these cool things] which will be useless by 2040 according to MIT"
Well learning carpeting, getting little garden to grow own food and getting some shooting courses will make your life much easier in the worst case scenario. Add fishing and hunting and you are more prepared than 80% of European population.
@@MrGrizzzlik Learn to make your own EMPs and sword smithing to build essential weapons during tough times, and with my special code, get 70% off a 3 month philosophy course to prepare for an upcoming existential crisis.
what? skillshare has to be the perfect sponsor for this. theres probably courses on sustaining an own garden, repairing cars, electrical repairs, carpentry, first-aid, how to safely deliver babies, learning chinese....
@@valiantcashcow learning chinese 😆
Eh, I bet there are plenty of foraging guides and all sorts of off the grid tutorials on there. Better pick up those skills sooner than later! - THE END IS NIGH!
"So basically yeah the world is ending. Sponsored by Skillshare!"
This world has literally become a parody of itself at this point
Carl's Jr.
F*ck you! I'm eating!
Shut up, I'm mending
Truth.
@Sueadnecsa they probably have nothing to do with that
"Time to abandon ship" - General Grievous
This has happened in New Zealand. A quarter of the population in NZ are elderly, and young people keep leaving due to the high stress of paying taxes to fund so many retired people, who insultingly own the rental property they live in because young people can't afford a house due to the high taxes and low wages they earn.
Sounds like boomers are the same everywhere.
Yeah, us boomers are bastards.
Don't forget your batshit crazy politicans.
1/4 of the pop is nothing compared to the rest of the world. Come to Europe mate, we're surrounded by angry, well-off boomers who are even more entitled than gen z. Having lived in the USA for 5, then 13yrs in Germany (still here), the economic decline and high cost of living is becoming more profound since 2015's refugee crisis. One can feel the tense atmosphere now and everything and everyone feels like they're reaching their breaking point really really quickly. I. Grateful that I have chosen not to have children, because I fear that they may not have a safe and happy future.
So yeah,The young kiwis will return home once they realise how lucky NZ has it compared to everywhere else.. 😉
Sounds like a place I want to live, young people leaving and nice older people to actually socialize with
The US economy cannot survive without continuous credit and debt creation. The FED will print more money and the average American will go just that much further in debt. Meanwhile, foreigners lust for the greenback. Their economies are in worse condition than the US... if that's even possible. Someone is going to be left holding the bag...
Gold might crash in a liquidity crunch, but many precious metal holders are prepared for this and unlikely to be forced sellers. The paper market would tank and possibly collapse. Hearing from an experienced investor who has overcome adversity is motivating. It can be scary when your portfolio turns red, but if you've invested in strong companies, stick to your goals and continue growing them
It's often true that people underestimate the importance of financial advisors until they feel the negative effects of emotional decision-making. I remember a few summers ago, after a tough divorce, when I needed a boost for my struggling business. I researched and found a licensed advisor who diligently helped grow my reserves despite inflation. Consequently, my reserves increased from $275k to around $750k.
Thanks a lot for this recommendation. I just looked her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
The americans have the computer
@@JosephineKenney Gold and silver is the way to go. Gold has had value for 6,000 years. Fiat currency will be worth as much as a roll of toilet paper when an economy crashes an we're on the way.
The biggest problem with humanity is the fact that we typically tend to be more reactive then proactive we wait until the last minute to fix big problems that could have been solved a long time ago
Sounds like me with any homework/chore
Its called money ! everything costs money and no one wants to spend it on anything other than their own needs.
umm no, that's not the biggest problem with humanity
@@AGhostInTheMachine pretty much is. For example. We could solve 99% of conflict, world hunger and homelessness right now. But because people are too stuck in their own bs bubble they can't put their useless petty issues with others aside and are hellbent on servicing nothing but their own needs.
Global warming could have been addressed 60+years ago so that we wouldn't even have to worry at this point. Instead we ignored it and now we are in a crisis. Humans are stooopid
@@TempoTrack umm no, pretty much isn't
I personally think that the collapse is more probable because we are more of a reactive society that waits till the last second to do something rather than being proactive. Political corruption and corporate won’t be going away and people are resistant to change, America is very guilty of that. The people who could have the power to make major decisions for the better aren’t really doing much and I feel as though we aren’t changing fast enough.
Being proactive is cool until deranged psychopaths get their turns with the controls.. or have had the controls for 100+ years.. or will continue having the controls..
why does it say reply- but no replies? whose censoring that.
We gotta take command of our corners by being exceptional and strong for any hope of our futures guys.
Bad times strong men, good times weak men and cycle.
We're sitting through the weak leadership, good luck team.
actually rapid change is what has caused empires to crash. the founding fathers knew this and designed our government so that they could not change too much too fast.
Collapse won't happen. :3
The way Covid was handled is a good insight as to how screwed we are if something even more serious comes
If smallpox ever got out about half the human race would be gone in a couple of years, even though we have a vaccine.
If it was something that has high chance of killing you people would protect themselves. People understated covid
The way we handled covid is underrated. We were thrown an unexpected curveball, and we adapted. That's what humans are good at, adapting.
it's not about covid. it's the governments response to it, with all there planned economic destruction and spewing divisive propaganda and manipulating the heard
@@mrtony80 Underrated you say? Explain this.
"The irony that I am part of the problem. But here ya go, have an ad..." 😂 most excellent!!! Perfectly cheeky!
*THIS VIDEO IS A COMPLETE WASTE OF YOUR TIME*
Had no idea RUclipsrs could place their ads🤣🤣
@@isaacgomez6570I second that
to which that ad started with a guy with their hands up literally say "here I am, I'm an ad!" too funny 😂
@@kurtowen4817 got an inspirational automobile add. Sound funny though
Never let anyone make a decision if they won't personally suffer for being wrong.
Sadly, sticking Ukrainian refugees into office isn't feasible otherwise this really would work.
What do you suggest? Only elect inexperienced 30 year olds for important government positions? Grow up, the world doesn't owe you a thing
@@12ubix Who says those 70 year olds are experienced? Age does not equal experience at all. Telling someone to grow up for pointing out an obvious issue is stupid. Truth is we need a variation of ages in the government to represent all of us, that's the only way I see this system working in young people's favor as well as old.
@@janterri3539 maybe tens of years of experience in politics? Stop trying to play devils advocate to support an idealistic viewpoint. I bet you are the kind of person who complains about the existence of billionaires.
@@12ubix so there arent capable leaders under 60? why do you want senile leaders who would most likely die before they suffer from their wrong decisions and cant even think properly
My experience is that there's never been a group of science types as bad at prediction as economists.
Aside from epidemiologists... obviously!
Really stupid statement. At least in my country there is an economist/businessman who almost always right about what will be happening with the country in the foreseeable future. His predictions are 70%+ are on point.
@@1LERS1 what's his name?
@@lyfe918 Dmitriy Potapenko.
Economists are not science types. They do no science. They don't even do math. They do alternate history.
I believe we can not only achieve this ahead of schedule, but also hit all four collapses: political, social, environmental, AND economic. Boom, extra credit.
nothing is collapsing yet on an international scale. I do think we are heading for crisis, but not world ending
declining birth rates in all but third world countries also something to note
@@calanjameshunt huh? third world countries dont use birth control. cost of living is too high to have many children.
@@calanjameshunt actually it's opposite..birth rate is less in developed countries due to advanced mentality and high education... underdeveloped countries breed like animals despite their poverty and that's why they never escape poverty
@@13thmistral this aged like milk
Here is the scary part that isnt talked about. When people refer to past civilizations collapsing, they are refering to a small part of the world, that is relatively isolated from other civilizations. Islotation meaning that they dont rely on other civilizations and empires to survive, and vice versa. Nowadays, when we talk about civilization collapsing, we are referring to a huge portion of the world collapsing, something that we have never seen before.
Well, there is the catastrophic collapse at the end of the Bronze age 3000 years ago, where a whole host of civilizations of the time all but ceased to exist entirely, not even leaving behind much record that they were there. The Mediterranean and what we now call the middle east were absolutely wrecked.
The scary part is believing in any of this in the first place
Atlantis!
STOKING THE PARANOIA MACHINE! YOU GO GIRL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
@@MeargleSchmeargle Keep up the paranoia, cuz kids are as bored as you, Dude?
Useful information begins at 11:58
You're welcome
Thanks 💯
Thanks mate. I'll be almost 80 so... 🤷♀
Thanks
Arigato
If I could I would give you 1000 thumbs up! Thx a lot m8!
“When the end of the world comes, I want to be in Kentucky, because everything there happens 20 years after it happens anywhere else.” - Mark Twain
Or be in New Zealand as people visiting it say it's like it's still in the 1970s but with internet. Never been more grateful for coming from a "backwards" country. 😉
Man I loved nz. Granted it was as a long term tourist... not a resident...but it's great imagining the dream image is as I want to believe
Guess im good for another 20 years
Better in Kamchatka, they just never receive the news, they still think we are Empire.
I can live with that.
For anyone worried about this report, please keep in mind that data models cant even predict a days worth of weather accurately. Society is a much more complex model with so many moving parts that are influenced by human emotions (unlike the weather). As someone who works in data science, I highly suggest you to take any long term prediction with a grain of salt. We make very very specific data models to price products based on a small set of data points and most of them blow up as soon as they come into contact with real world data. Alarmism sells, nobody would care about a report which doesn't predict a catastrophe.
Yes!
Predicting anything is hard, and often predictions fail miserably
Sorry to rain on your parade but Limits to Growth the 30 year update clearly shows, that we have been very closely following the standard run scenario. I understand, that in 1972 you could be sceptical of LtG. How anyone today can not see how dangerously accurate the scenarios shown in the model are, is beyond me.
Forget your computer models. Common sense and simple observation show this is already happening. It's a forrest/trees thing. BTW: I majored in CS, but grew up in a very real world.
good comment. I agree 100% with the points you made. Alarmism does sell.
While "The Limits to Growth" did present a scenario in which global societal collapse could occur around 2040, it's essential to understand that this was just one of many potential outcomes modeled in the report. It wasn't a definitive prediction. Moreover, the intent of the study was more to stimulate thought and discussion about sustainable growth than to make precise forecasts.
Very sound commentary. But a part of me hopes it will all end in 2040 (even before then)
Exactly. Right now there are only a few things in modern society that we dont have alternatives for.
@@schooldunce6810 strange to be offended by that comment :/
@schooldunce6810 then you can look forward to living in the dark ages. Again! 😂 🤨
@schooldunce6810 propaganda. West is fine and mostly shielded from climate change
Does Anyone Else Feel Like Everything Has Changed?
There is also this feeling that the whole world is holding it's breath. Almost as though we are all waiting for some catalyst or sign or event that puts an end to this feeling of being put on hold. This vague unexplained unease.
Everyone is disconnected from each other and there’s no longer any respect or tolerance for each other. No one likes to communicate in person anymore and everyone does things only for money rather than for purpose and meaning. We also have a loneliness epidemic.
It’s the logical progression of individualism + capitalism
I live in Japan and it’s easier to live a simpler life here. Walkable mixed-zoned cities, affordable prices, convenient systems, updated maintained infrastructure, and best of all: community-centric society. People are so nice to each other, it’s unbelievable. Finland and Japan even has the same suicide rate. Finland, the happiest nation on Earth!
Exactly what I've been thinking since last summer
Get off the internet
@@joriankell1983 on it, following in Uncle Ted's and Pentti Linkola's footsteps.
There's a book called Fates Of Empires by Sir John Glubb in which he studied lots of failed societies, and found a pattern. We're just following along the cycle he discovered. One reason he mentions for this that the OP didn't mention....was that history is not truthfully taught. Since we constantly revise history, we can't escape the cycle.
History is meant to be revised as new facts are discovered, like a stash of letters from the civil war. However, if what you're teaching is mythology over history, therein lies the problem. Most Americans believe the mythology of their country but have a terrible understanding of what actually has happened.
@matt greene. So true. History that is taught, is nothing more than the beliefs and opinions of the victor, underpinned with an enormous serving of ego.
Is the Roman Empire a failed society just because it turned into many different countries?
@@wesswise28 Technically, yes. It fell apart. The end of every society is a good or bad thing, depending on whether you believed in that society, or not.
MIT already predicted in 1972, in the Meadows report, the collapse for 2000. And nothing happened, no famines as they claimed, pollution decreased in developed countries, etc...
"Here you go, have an ad."
"What a good little consumer you are."
I died a little.
Hes a savage for saying that lol
I sat through both ads and was praised!
@Dino Sauro shhhhh 🤫
Right when he finished saying “ad” I got an ad…
I want my fourth wall back 🤣
Two years later and things are only worse... I think a collapse is inevitable.
You speak with no hope, we are more than just humans we are a miracle of consciousness zoom out and seek survival
@@Frrolon , yeah well, 40 years of living and things have only gotten worse and worse and the very rational questions I had as a child as to WHY any of this happens in the first place have never been answered...
Humanity is 🚮 so yeah, I have no hope.
The few always ruin it for the many.
@@Frrolon Which is exactly what the Bible predicted my friend. But take hope in Jesus. He's your only hope.
Wow, your paranoia desrves a visit to the psychologist on your birthday to explain that everything is fine, but you have been binge-watching sensationalism, paranoia and disinformation. So your views are negative and depressing.
@@Frrolon Or, pay one hundred dollars to a psychologist and get your confidence back. Cutting back on binge-watching sensational, paranoid disinformation also helps, Dude.
Social Collapse doesn't always mean post apocalyptic dystopia but rather that the currents social structures will either be incredibly inefficient or completely reformed
True, but I wouldn't bet money on the new social structure being good, especially when we're destroying the natural environment we depend on, and are depleting our resources.
@@politicallyambiguous8424 true too
@politicallyambiguous8424 also, especially when the people in charge of developing the new social structure dress like Emperor Palpatine and say things like, "You will own nothing, and you will be happy." Has 1984 been removed from the required reading?
@@Oklahomeless While I like the book 1984, I doubt our future dystopia will have much in common with Oceana except for mass surveillance and poverty. I think the future will be more like Elysium, with a capitalist elite owning everything whilst we own nothing.
I think a neoliberal dystopia is more likely in our current world than a Stalinist one.
We do not have to comply but we need a parallel economy and the ability to stand up together and say no to the Agenda
As someone who has worked with simulations before, this is the most critical question:
How many times did they rerun the thing and the result was “nothing interesting” before the run that gave them the “the world is ending” result?
EDIT: More analysis on the study below!
We've been on the same trajectory, without improvement, that has been predicted for decades. Same thing with climate change. Does the world need to explode before you take it seriously?
@@xuto2693 Have you read the study? it's a joke.
The World3 model has been "re-calibrated" (i.e. changed to fit current data) several times, with the last one being 1990. Then the years are sampled in averaged 5 year periods, (suspiciously) ending in 2015. In other words, the study relies on a correlation on literally 5 data points. Even then, 3 of the variables are over the ridiculous "acceptance range" of +/-20%.
The critical variable that defines the collapse (pollution) shows two data sources. The rates of changes (vital for a dynamic simulation) span a margin from -70% to 240% respect the "closest fit".
Another suspicious result of the analysis included is that the original World3 had tipping points that are now in the past, and had not happened (ups!), but all three relevant scenarios (BAU2, CT, SW) are a very close fit to one another, and the tipping points are conveniently past 2020. $10 say that the World3 model will be reviewed sometime after 2025 and the tipping points will shift forward again to 2035.
The idea that somehow the world hasn't changed significantly since 1972 is laughable at best (BAU literally stands for Business As Usual).
Of course, if the article was published saying "All is good", it would not have appeared in the press...
@@theondono Don't they recalibrate Climate models all the time as well?
@@armentumhominum9931 The devil is in the details. We continuously add new data into climate models to allow for predictions that see further in the future. This models give us a thin "cone" of possible futures that extends into the future, the further from the data end you want to predict, the bigger the cone.
When this type of modelling is done correctly, the cone either maintains it's "angle" or it gets decreased (the model is improved). This shows that the original model had validity and keeps it's predictive power (for instance it lets you predict 50 years into the future within ~10% accuracy).
The World3 model cone by contrast grows bigger with each revision, because the conclusion is pretty much set in stone (world collapse by 2040), but the timespan gets progressively shorter because so far, the world is not ending. When your predictive model does this, well, it's time to reconsider if you wanted to accurately represent the world or if you aimed for a certain conclusion and played with it until you got what you wanted...
@@theondono Interesting, thanks for the great reply. For real.
I'm not a climate change denier, one don't need more than a pair of eyes and memory to see how drastically climate has and is changing. But I also remember the predictions that were taught in schools about climate and how they didn't come true. I think that anything that can be used to further political agendas, and power, it will be used, and climate seems to be one of the top issues used in that direction. Sadly.
I liked the "apartment vs. castle" statement. I visited the main ruins of a castle in Germany and, until the guide mentioned it, it never occurred to me just how COLD those joints got in the winter...
Yeah, the literally put fire in a pan under the blankets with them lolzzz
@@ezicarus8216 Wow, thank you for all that...genius that I am, some things never occur to me, LOL.
@@jimibones178 No with them, before going to bed, otherwise your risk burning your feet and possibly the bed:)
@@Falsk No, no, they used hot stones in the pans instead of fire to avoid accidentally burning down the bed even the castle. The stones ( when cooled off) could be used to defend the castle from the guys freezing outside.😁
@@crazyedo9979 well that is true concerning the pans, but they are also very hot, not something you want in your bed when you don't have control of your body:)
Is it only me or others too feel that things are uncomfortably changing very fast since last few years (post Covid) ?
Sensationalism owns you, Rube. Try educating yourself. Everything is fine, but you are stoked by sensationalism daily.
Thank you. Plz put down ur phone, friend and feed a pidgeon
@@davidwong723 DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM....
@@martinkent333 maga
@@martinkent333 If only you were right. I see it in new policies. The globalists and big business have been emboldened to act against the public's best interests to empower/enrich themselves. It's human nature. Try educating yourself rather than assuming. Our doom is our ignorance to it before it's too late to fix it.
"History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes"
- Mark Twain
"People who quote dead people aren't as clever as they think they are"
- Me
Wow, what a smart guy. He posted a quote, that`s barely related to the content of the video.
it's like poetry
Every time i see this quote on the internet I can't help but roll my eyes
@@grigorirasputin4871 the video is about economical collapse is it not?
"Why get hostile when you can get rich?" is literally the founding principle of the EU.
Considering how horrific WW2 was--and all the *other* warring that happened in Europe during the middle ages, that's probably a good idea.
Technically, it was more like:
Germany: It’s cold winter and we are freezing, we need to increase coal production.
France: Wait just a minute, coal is strategic material used in war. I don’t feel comfortable with you having more coal.
Germany: But winter.
France: Tell you what, we make organization where we can share and more importantly track every coal and steel production so we can keep and eye, I mean organize better distribution for European industries.
Germany: Sure.
France: And lets make one for nuclear energy. So we can keep track of nuclear material and make sure it’s used for peaceful purposes.
Germany: I wasn’t going to … aah, sure.
@@stafer3 ...good sarcasm...laconically speaking 👌👍
@@stafer3 "peaceful purposes", lets go with Uranium Breeder reactors instead... Yeah, I see it, very clear.
@@stafer3 except ... the EU is born out of the benelux, the union of Belgium, the Neherlands and Luxembourg
which is why Brussels is still the capital of Europe, not Berlin
I was 20 when the Limits to Growth was published. I really did not expect our civilisation to endure until today. I am constantly gobsmacked at how résiliant and innovative humans are, but I’m not encouraged by the general ambivalence and ignorance of our world “leaders”. I’ll be ninety by 2040, if I’m lucky. I’m much more concerned for my children and grandchildren’s future. As they say, “There is no planet B.”
Dude, I'm going to be 32/33. I used to be terrified but now it's hard to feel much other than apathy with occasional anger. I'm an idealist even now though, I guess I have to be. Really though, there's three ways this could go. We either fight against this godawful system and emerge into a more rational and loving way of operating (that doesn't devalue the ecosystem and human life), become crippled by fascism, or some doomed mix of the two. At this rate, we can't predict which it'll be, but society's going to collapse alright. Try to enjoy it while it lasts, and remember, not all that is right is legal.
@@totallyrealnotfakelifeadvi7547 Human life isn't nearly as precious as it is made out to be.
@@Antiteshmis If you're a human being, you should value other people's lives as your own
@@zer-atop3032 I don't value the lives of people who take pleasure in torturing innocent animals as my own.
"Being a human being" is not defined by you, it is the entirety of what people do.
ie, cutting the leg off a pup and throwing it off a bridge is also being human.
I am tired of people pretending vapid concepts such as yours are somehow credible or even desirable.
@@AntiteshmisThe great thing about being human is you can opt out any time you like. There’s the door, just see yourself out.
The forecast just got a whole lot closer than 2040.
MIT couldn’t even predict that their janitor was a genius, so my confidence is pretty minimal.
Haha, global famine and the collapse of society as we know it is Hilarious 😂
@@uncannyvalley2350 it is, and im tired of pretending it not. 🥲
@@uncannyvalley2350 meaning? can u expand?
We're you see funn I see and arrow pointing to the end times
Your thinking of a movie called good will hunting. It’s fictional. I can’t believe how stupid people are. I really hope an extinction event happens soon. I really really do.
Societies collapse because no population ever believes it could happen to them. Since they believe their system to be eternal, they never deviate from the "business as usual" model. Only when the collapse occurs do , they then scream "Why didn't someone warn us? Why didn't someone do something to stop this?", conveniently forgetting all the times they attacked anyone who dared say that "business as usual" was anything but the greatest path of all.
Society will collapse by 2015
The good times have created weak men. And thus, here we are.
@@TheBoydTV His entire catalog should be required reading. Now, if you'll excuse me, I have to get back to stacking all the cargo I can get my hands on.
Then there is no worry of that happening to the Anglosphere nations who spend day and night crying 'the sky is falling' and screeching that everything is wrong and our worlds will end if only we don't change change change course.
@@marcuscook5145 Spoken like the weakest form of man that exists, a fascist. Capitalism's built in self-destruction mechanisms don't need any help from a nominal gay population or spoiled suburbanites.
Meanwhile politicians _know_ about all of this, yet are too busy pinning the public against each other and furthering their own agendas to actually do anything about it. I think it's also kinda gross that the critics who state "necessity is the mother of invention" is how we're going to solve these issues. Thing is they're not _wrong,_ humans as whole are notorious for ignoring problems until they're actually threatening something personal to them, it's just the apathetic attitude behind it that's gross.
@@koschmx Oh people absolutely suck, don't get me wrong. They're not excused for their behavior just because bad actors successfully pulled at their sensationalist heartstrings, but you can still put the blame on the skeezy politicians who have the knowledge and power to be able to do something about it and choose not to for whatever, most likely selfish, reasons.
@@w00tyd00d Money. If it doesn't help their bottom line, or it hurts the bottom line of those who donate to them, they won't do it. It's that simple.
Do you REALLY think Lauren Bobert knows this? Margarie Talyor Green? Honestly?
And the US just decided to go "Let's just stop all environmental protection and do a bunch of crappy stuff to potentially put this in overdrive!!"
@@w00tyd00d One theory which had been proven to have some truths claimed that the democratic party is funded by the Communist Party of China.
The way the party is able to fund the democrats is by using American business’s that are owned by Chinese company’s as a loophole to donate money.
The theory then goes on to claim that Chinas end goal is to subject America and permanently buy out all of its farmlands.
Unfortunately it looks like the theory is true because I seen news reports of China buying American farmland.
"But here, have an ad... [ad].... what a good little consumer you are." Was great.
Would love to see a comparison of the various economic doomsday theories of the 50s-80s and see how they've fared. I remember hearing my parents and their friends talking about them in the early 90s, and yet here we are.
I can partially answer that one since I was around back then. Was in High School in the late '60s, when the pollution (I mean all the poisonous ones, not just invisible CO2) was as bad as pictures of Shanghai, China today. You could only see a clear sky over NYC perhaps 2 or 3 days all year. The Hudson River was so poisonous you could die trying to swim in it. A lot of "Doomsday Scenarios" back then, all of which, except for the population explosion, got turned around faster than any model had predicted. There was no CO2 doom scenario at that time. This plays into what this video so well pointed out, that we as a species will always be surprised in the future, for better and for worse. Our scientific models today, even from the "finest minds" can turn out better and/or worse and we aren't as good at predicting all the insane amount of variables as we think we are when we create them.
Yeah, here we are. Life was easier back then.
Since postmodernism we clearly are living in the end days. ;)
Mostly wrong and wildly so. Partially from lack of knowledge/understanding and partially from ideological biases.
Just because the descent downward has been slower than initially predicted, that doesn’t mean it isn’t happening. The shape of the middle class in the US has been on a downward trajectory since the 1970’s, I’d start there if you’re looking for a time line to study…
The worst attitudes to develop from this are: 1. It's no problem, so let's continue the status quo and 2. we're already perma-fucked, so let's continue the status quo.
Exactly. Humanity is a problem solving creature. They're at their absolute worst when they ignore their issues whether through willful ignorance or lazy nihilism. I work in medicine and I hate when people say, "blank has no cure." Bullshit, everything has a cure. We just haven't discovered or invented it yet. People need to mobilize faster, though. Fixing problems after they're in the critical stage causes so much damage that can be prevented by fixing them now.
No one wants to live in a real life version of The Road..
@@retrofunilike80sretro68 No, and unfortunately that is where the politicians are taking us.
Nah, the worst attitude is "the solution is to concentrate power even more."
One thing "experts" are pretty consistent at is being terrible at predicting long term changes. Everyone thought that the advent of industrialized warfare in the late 1800s and early 1900s made war between major powers too expensive and too deadly to actually happen large scale. Everyone thought that the destruction of societies, economies, and massive death toll of WW1 would make another war impossible. Everyone thought the development of nuclear weapons would make war impractical after WW2 since a conflict could quickly spiral until all life on earth would get wiped out and wed enter a new era of peace as large militaries became useless when 1 nuke could wipe an entire fleet, army, or city off a map. eve reyone thought the USSR was too big, too powerful, and too interconnected to ever collapse. Everyone thought Japans explosive growth would lead to them taking over the world and surpassing even America on the world stage. Everyone thought that after India gained independence they'd join the ranks of the USSR and US as a global superpower and lead the "third world" would would be a 3rd global empire like Allies or the communist world. Even as recently as the 90s many people thought that Germany would become a world power and start expanding their power just like before WW1 and WW2 into a 4th reich if East and West Germany reunited.
Our biggest problem is waste. We waste EVERYTHING. Clothing,food,water,energy. You name it and we waste it. If it doesn't fit or if it's broken, we just throw it away. Waste is by far our biggest issue
I agree with that but the base problem is overpopulation way too many consumers on the planet and the big money companies just get wealthier because the products they produce like you say get thrown away. There are just too many people on the planet.
Inceneration plants shall all be closed. They are an insane aberation. Landfill sites are litterally better in every way exept pollution
We need more Common Sense.
We could rename the word waste to cycléng
And get more interested in proper recycléng
If society does collapse it will be because of inequality, billionaires are getting richer, and the average person cannot afford a home.
Ahead of schedule, well done team 😃🙏🏼
Soylent Green anyone ?
@@g.m.5395 😄
@@iggiewalsh2237
Thanks Iggie 👌👍👏☺️
Getting the job done.
🤣
To quote Historia Civilis roughly
“On average there has been a great power conflict every 50 years all the way back to when clear superpowers existed and even before… with two BIG exceptions, after the Napoleonic Wars, and right now”
Only two times where there was peace for an extended period of time, a none that lasted more than 100 years
Edit: No we aren’t all gonna die soon, what I quoted is an observation of the pattern not a fundamental law of the universe, so calm down
The United States has had major conflicts every 80 years, approximately, since it first formed. 1780: revolutionary war, 1860: civil war, 1940: ww2, 2020: we’ll see what happens this decade I guess
I mean , at least the next major conflict will be the last one.
@@Robinjhoe1 you mean every one would be dead. 😥
Even then what about those other conflicts… and which countries are you considering and not considering .
L
@@jackdias9263 Two data points are simply not enough to see a pattern.
"A lot of technological innovation these days is just major companies finding new and innovative ways for you to waste your time consuming advertiser content." - this is so true, disappointing, and frightening.
But always has been the case.
Brought to you by Skillshare!
Corporations don't really innovate they just create a product that sell and stick to it
Corporations have always been like that. It's nothing new
The truth is only 5% of our society is really productive to sustain humanity. A the others is just consuming.
That ad placement was hilarious! Can't even be mad about that.
Don’t worry guys, I got this, I’ll stop the collapse. You will know I was successful with my mission when you wake up on January 1st, 2041 to a still functioning world.
Thanks Cody, I'm glad somebody has a handle on this... AOC has us dead in ten, MIT in twenty, so I'm going to put my faith faith in your capable hands & hold you to your mission goal.
keep being cute, lets see who laughs last
@@allthatmattersiscigars2312 bruh are you threatening to collapse society
Someone better post on this comment om 1st january 2041
@@snugglecity3500 That's part of Cody's mission, the post-action debrief. Notifications: Check!!!
So, a little extra bit for people who are curious : systems dynamics models are a bit different than the modern machine learning systems we generally picture today. they do not have the ability to be trained and learn, instead they are hand built, usually using multiple theories that are then chained together into bigger 'systems'. The 'historical data' bit is for hand validation, you run known datasets through it and see how well your theory does, then you have to hand make adjustments. It is still pretty heavily used today since it is much more explainable than ML, but requires a lot more up front work and is not as useful for things like recommendation systems (the core of search, advertising, and product/media browsing) so it gets a lot less attention.
With ML models, or any model for that matter relies on a human inputting the data. So a human would have to put in data for economic indicators like population, GDP etc, and ML model would still have human bias in it.
For example the point the Aussie guy raised about the 1972 model not having climate change included. If for example ML technology was about in 1972 the researchers wouldn't have put in climate data into the model.
If we were to build a model be it ML or whatever the flavour of the month is the model would have biases
ok, nerd
@@ctb1977 Yeah. But that does impose remodelling every now and then, not dismissal of the whole thing. More often then not, when arguing about biases in models or data, what you argue about exhausts it's effect in the third decimal place.
Oh the irony...
@@somenameidk5278 they can be simple or complex. it is just a particular method for building them.
Those set dates for the collapse of the civilization never worried me. As a Brazilian there is no way I'll be on time for it.
See this? This is why I hate being an Asian, I'D BE ON TIME FOR IT.
@@lokishalltear3517 LOL
Wow what a motivating video to see as I browse through youtube on a break from figuring out what I want to do in the future
Paranoia is so adorable! YOU GO GIRL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I think we should remember that when a civilization collapses it doesn't always mean everyone dies immediately, it usually means people slowly migrate elsewhere.
It means people are going to die, slowly in horrible ways. Starvation, fires, weather extremes and changing patterns. While people might slowly migrate elsewhere that's not going to be an option for the poorest and most vulnerable. Which, to the corporatacy, I guess they're expendable.
If the US collapsed, another world power would quickly take control
If is a global collapse, then where do we migrate to?
@@jackknifer1 we’ll go with Elon to Mars
Good point
Our civilization will collapse predominantly because of the fundamentally flawed economic preconceptions of unlimited growth divorced from physical resource constraints, as displayed on this channel.
The 'elite' already know this, hence the 'Great Reset'. Civilisation will collapse a lot sooner than 2040.
Talking about consuming yourself
This.
But instead, society insists on operating on a mindset of, "we can just keep having exponential population and economic growth forever!" (Keep in mind that the global population had _doubled_ just in the last 70 years.)
No. No we can't. A society that operates this way will eventually collapse in on itself.
@@AngryReptileKeeper Yes. The debt can't be hidden under the rug forever.
my husband and I have discussed this extensively. It's one of the major pitfalls of capitalism as it currently exists. We've discussed that a collapse will likely wind up being that of how we gain resources, but the question is - will what comes after capitalism be better or worse? Who knows?
One thing I’m always critical of when it comes to the narrative of societal collapse in many of these predictions is the very same narrative of “Rising from nothing and returning to nothing”. If anything, it’s the opposite. Societies rise from other societies and they return to the societies that claim their legacy. Rome didn’t end with a “great cataclysmic collapse”, nor with the Ottoman conquest of Constantinople; Empires up to today proclaim to be the continuation of Rome, or of empires that came long before them, and to be honest, will probably continue on long after. Empires don’t crumble, they change. A lot of these narratives often forget that evolution doesn’t mean progress, it means change and adaptation.
When civilisations collapse, very little knowledge and information makes it through to the society that comes out of it.
Technically societies do emerge from nothing back to nothing.
@@retrofunilike80sretro68 exactly...
A long and winded way of saying "liberal democracies changing into wasteland tribalism" mate...
@@retrofunilike80sretro68 what a stupid comment.
@@entropicpedro it's exactly wrong
It will teach everyone a life lesson that excessive consumerism, continuing to elect corrupt and decrepit politicians, and widespread use of monoculture farming and other unsustainable habits by other industries is the ultimate bane triangle of humanity.
Monoculture? Really? When I look around I see everyone looking for or creating their own cultures. That lack of unity is more a problem than a mono culture. It is a fact that people who live in and around other like themselves contributes to happiness. That is why I eland is the happy place on Earth. Not without problems but compared to everyone else, especially the USA, they are very satisfied with life.
@@icestationzebra8636 No education eh? You must enjoy being the smartest dude online.............................................
@@icestationzebra8636the United States is massive so applying a monoculture to assume everywhere is under the same material conditions is stupid. Cultures that are augmented to benefit different locations and not cause excessive harm is good thing yes
@@icestationzebra8636 Agricultural monoculture, dummy. I.e. farming only one type of crop in a huge tract of land
Guys, it's been a rough couple of years for humanity. We've been through a couple of defeats. It's good to finally be ahead in something. So keep up the good work everyone. Cheers!
💀
I know that the world sucks right now, but if we just give up and resign ourselves to the belief that it's never gonna get better, then it's never gonna get better!
@J Maxx I see what you mean. I guess I'm trying to say that the response should be one of concern, but optimism that it can be averted, not one of inevitability. Of course, negative things can be and are reality, I'm not denying that, I'm just trying to say that being a doomer about it all the time isn't very productive. I probably could have worded that better.
We try our best. I got my snacks and a chair. Let the fun begin.
@J Maxx stop with this climate alarmism we have bigger problems climate can wait
I was at MIT economics at the time, and I met Prof Forester several times. You have to remember that the 70s were a time of huge commodity price increases. Many people, not just economists, extrapolated this out to mean that we would eventually run out of things. Later this became known as "peak oil" etc.I remember one paper that said we would soon run out of copper because the minimum minable grade was assumed to be 0.1%.
None of this occurred. The '80s were a time a commodity price collapse. This was due to Increased production, tech driven substitution - all the usual things. Prices in real terms have never recovered. Great for us shorts.
You should do a video on this whole era, the Club of Rome etc. It would go well with your wry delivery.
We constantly work to eradicate forest and ocean life. We work for ecocide.
Sir, the same thing is being said for lithium. They are saying that we have not enough lithium to replace the batteries in Electric Vehicles. What an Irony! Might be our future generations have an answer.
We will die. Just look around. Trash everywhere.
it doesn't matter if the predictions are off by decades or even centuries. True, we might find new unexpected sources. But the fact is, as Elon Musk eloquently puts it, extracting non-renewable sources from a limited environment will inevitably lead to resource depletion, even if the timing of it is uncertain. That is just mathematics, if you keep subtracting from a finite number you will eventually reach 0.
I read about Peak Oil years ago and it was a startling concept. I even thought that it was imminent and things were going to get tough. That was 17 years ago. Granted, we have pandemics and product shortages, but the world certain writers envisioned (looking at you, James Kunstler) definitely hasn't come to pass.
The average person has never been so poor. Millions of families are struggling financially as living expenses hit the highest levels in more than four decades. Over 60% of our country lives paycheck to paycheck and about 40% earns poverty wages. Even after working all their lives, more than a quarter of older people have no savings and many believe they will never be able to retire in dignity, while around 55% of elderly people try to survive on an income of less than €25,000 a year. My primary concern is how to grow my reserve of €300k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains.
It's scary how true this message is. What steps can we take to generate more income during quantitative tightening? Also, on the contrary, how can we profit in times of quantitative easing? Where should we put our investment money now to better prepare for the future and a liquidity crisis?
As a new investor it's always great to hear from a person who has gone through all the difficult times and come ahead of it. It's unnerving to see your portfolio go from green to red but as mentioned if you have invested in quality names just have to keep adding to them and stay the course.
@@cuddyb9631 Right. I'm sure the idea of a coach sounds controversial to a few, but new study by investopedia found that demand for investment coaching sky-rocketed over 41% since the rona-outbreak till date. Based on firsthand encounter I can say for certain, their skillsets are top notch, I've built a solid 4 years+ working relationship with my coach, gaining rare but useful insights and after subsequent investing, accruing approx. $1.75m in savings thus far.
@@kaylawood9053 I have no Advisør at all and this recent dip which i feel was triggered by war resulting to inflation and so many other factors could hit my portfolio so hard. who would you recommend i seek out for in times like this?
A 12th century pauper wants to know your location
My own prediction would be closer to 2030
Too early
Stoking the Paranoia Machine! YOU GO GIRL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
@@robbenvanpersie1562 True paranoia is a beautiful thing and chicks dig creepy dudes, eh? Let's chat!
Quick point about quantum computers seeing how you mention them; They're very good at certain specific tasks, but in 90%+ of tasks the heavily Moore's Law affected general purpose computers are used for, those general purpose computers are far better at it.
I'd say 99.9% of tasks is more accurate
True but huge computing power is needed for that 1% of tasks
Not true. Quantum computers are at least as efficient as a standard computer and many times more in other tasks. The problem is getting a quantum computer to the memory of a normal computer is extremely difficult and expensive.
@@Joso997 It's not just high performance computing (what I wrote my master's thesis in), it's a small subset of it and thus even less relevant to anyone outside of the scientific community.
Sure, there's breaking encryption, but that's just going to turn into a very lopsided cat and mouse game if they seriously go into it. Quantum computers can only effectively break encryption keys about as long as many qubits as they have. Using longer keys is trivial, but the difficulty of making a quantum computer increases exponentially with the number of qubits.
@@LAG09 If you have studied this then you must know how pointless it is trying to predict what’s coming
At least the governments are ahead of schedule on something for once.
Brutal.. but accurate!
Right...they are paving the roads to our futures; happy to see many agree!
US, indian and chinese governments*
Hey, I don't know if you will ever read this but you were one of the most influential factors in me taking up economics as my degree at college. I would be studying BS Economics with major focus on mathematics, statistics and programming with minor focus on environmental engineering. Thanks to your amazing videos for making me fall in love the subject
Just a heads up to be careful with this channel. While at times EE is insightful, he's given a lot of bad takes lately with certain videos, often due to poor research. Money & Macro has a few response videos to those bad takes that can offer you a balanced perspective. In fact, I'd recommend not getting information from only one resource, but from multiple resources in order to ensure you're not getting a biased viewpoint about any particular subject - especially economic theory.
The guy didn't say "I use this as my Bible", the guy said "this channel gave me a fascination for economics, so now I'm learning it."
...
That said, I just went and subscribed to that other channel, because, like the guy above but minus the college part, I, too, have gained a fascination for economics. So, thanks for sharing other sources.
Congrats man, best of lucks ;)
Good choice, there is a global shortage of economists. Too many people swayed into studying B. Business instead.
World govts are colluding together at the expense of their own citizens to usher in new world order. Military checkpoints will be set up on us interstates for covid vaccination certification. Camps will be activated around the world. Police state/genocide is coming. New world order led by obama and pope francis is coming. Jesus christ is coming back for the rapture. Get ready. Dont believe the coming ufo alien abduction narrative
Just stumbled on this today - thanks for an interesting video. I used to do systems dynamics programming back in the 1980s-90s (I'm that old!) using a program called LISP, and we would do Monte-Carlo type repetitions (changing the input paremeters slightly many times, either to simulate some statistical distribution or on a planned theoretical basis) just like this study did (which I have NOT read or studied). Most people probably aren’t familiar with SD but it’s fairly easy to explain - think of a diagram with some variables in it, with lines with arrows following from one to another, where every variable has things it influences and things that are influencing it. There are a few things worth considering. First - obviously - is the model itself, barring some kind of external unmodeled shock, like a nuclear war. Also, the variables included, and how to measure them, as well as each one’s SD relationship with other variables (for example population, which is (relatively) fairly simple - how is it defined (including age demographics, gender distribution, health, education, etc?), how those are measured (people living, healthy people living, some statistical distribution of them, etc?), and what other measured variables are influenced by each, as well as what variables each influences (years of productive work, innovative capabilities, urban versus rural living, and so forth). Well, it can get very complicated and the theoretical SD models that preceed the programming often have mini-models embedded inside them. Sadly, SD models inevitably wind out to some steady state-stasis or go wildly out of control, both of which are outcomes are intuitively not very likely - you just have to follow the models out far enough to see this (apparently beyond 2040 for this one). The apex of SD modeling popularity was in the 1980s when we imagined that we were smart enough to capture enough variables and their relationships to actually understand how things would go. Time has largely shown that not to be the case. SD models are interesting, but probably mainly not for predicting how things will turn out but in thinking about the form of the model and - as we learn and observe - refining the model over time in understanding how things affect one-another. It’s VERY rare for a systems dynamics model to be able to make good predictions about the ‘future’ (although as I say I don’t know this one specifically.) Perhaps modern society WILL collapse in 2040, but if it does, I suspect it will be for reasons aside from those of this SD model.
UN is projecting europe's population peaks between 2025-2030, and somewhat rapidly declines afterwards. There's little in UN projections suggesting a mass european migration anywhere, as almost all the top tier countries have similar UN projections. The only ones who didn't was Britain and USA, shown to be "leveling off" instead.
Your paranoia frightens kids. Time for a psychologist, Dude! How far gone are you? Let's chat!
thx for the perspective.
@@benjaminmirt5029 DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM...... POORLY INFORMED FOLKS STOKE PARANOIA, PROUDLY!!!!!!!!! YOU GO GIRL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It's the phoenix event. 16th may 2040
It can take hundreds of years for an empire to collapse. Easy to see when looking at ruins, hard to see when you are in it as it happens.
And then there's Sri Lanka ... ruclips.net/video/10dcpgY8meQ/видео.html
The US says... Hold my beer.
Perhaps as technology speeds up, so do collapses. We’ll find out soon enough, I think.
@@joecrowaz The US is fine lol.
@@devinfraserashpole4753 circlejerking about the US collapsing gives them something conveniant to direct their hate towards and give them an excuse to be lazy, useless assholes in society. Dont take statements like his seriously
"Worst case scenario? - Well then I guess it's time to learn how to forage food in the wilderness. Which you can right now with Skillshare"
Greatest sponsor segue in history. Well done.
Not with wet-bulb temperatures, sorry.
Quite so. Though, with severe resource depletion, there may be no wilderness left in 2040. At least, not enough to support all 10 billion people seeking out that wilderness.
I read this at the exact moment he said this. Gave me a much needed laugh
EE: "Innovation today is basically major companies finding innovative ways for you to waste time on ad sponsored content. Yes, I know the irony that I'm part of the problem but, here you go, have an ad..."
*Udemy advert plays
*Skips ad
EE: "What a good little consumer you are."
😂😂😂
It was so smooth I watch the whole ad
Adblock browser
@@andrewradford3953 yeah I was gonna say, there was an ad? :0
Free will is an illusion we are constantly being manipulated by media, politics and advertisement.
@@meivenheaven then manipulation is an illusion.
We have a worker shortage and decling birthrates. But we have a housing crisis, and food costs are out of control.
Just my Luck! By the time I’ll be old enough to retire, our Effin Economy and Society will Collapse 🤦♂️
Who ever said that this society would allow you to retire?
It’s ok, the way these idiots are running things, Babylon will never let you retire. Downsizing and quitting is the only realistic way to take time to enjoy life at this point
@@LindaASJ I'm with you
Easy to answer: 2 or 3 generations have been sacrificed. Also the minimum wage is increasing a lot faster than the raises for $25 / hr that have almost stayed the same wage for 10 years.
I'LL be taking a dirt bath by then. Good luck. 👍
It is a real shame that frugality and material efficiency is not valued. The only way that it can be valued in our economic model is if external costs are properly priced in. Most governments are resistant to doing this lest if affects our consumption driven model.
This reminds of the fact that the companies that pioneer and sell us our technology design it to be disposed of and replaced rather than repaired. They actively shut down and dissuade repair.
@@Mitzoplick best example I can think of are in-counter motors from the 50s or earlier, one motor for your blender, mixer, whatever! And all metal no breaky! Now? Get one of those things to last 10yrs I dare ya 🤣
@@EliteSniperTV The motors inside the cases of blenders, mixers, etc are themselves intact. But the plastic stick of a mixer broke, the blender glass jar broke and there was no spare available. Back in the 80's my dad had a lot of motors salvaged from apliances in his attic, and now I'm 49 and I already have my quote of perfect but useless motors, too.
@@OgbondSandvol definitely! I meant also the one motor multi appliance efficiency, space savings and reliability
Frugality is pushed for the people who have barely anything, where it's discouraged for people who own the majority of stocks and other forms of wealth.
One Mistake: Kings in wealthy nations during medieval times never ate cholera infested food. They also had enough servants for hot baths, fresh clothes, lit fireplaces in every room, or any other services you need. Obviously there were other problems (like their doctors still only knowing a fraction of what they do today).
Not only that, they inhaled much clearer air, used clearer water. Had more physical strength, skills. Life was simple for average folks but they needed sort of survival skills.
Plus they had fraction of diseases from what we have today.
Sure, it’s good to be king. But he mentioned a castle. There are tons of castles in many European countries. Not many royal palaces though.
Yeah. It's a common misconception among economists especially. I always hear them saying the middle class is richer today than a king from the past. One could only arrive at this conclusion if they are subconciously pushing a 'Grow the Pie', 'Taxation is Theft' agenda. Being rich is about more than how many air-conditioners you can afford. It's about power. It's about literally owning people. It's about the ratio of the planet that belongs to them.
Elon is not the richest man on earth the richest men on earth Live in the Middle East because They don’t have to file taxes with there country so we don’t know there true net worth thy got generations and generations of all your money that entire countries are buying from them
Every generation blames the one before for their problems. Eventually you realize that it does nothing beneficial and begin to work them out for yourselves.
In aviation, we are trained to guard against 'excessive professional courtesy.' This principle encourages individuals of lower rank to speak up if they observe a mistake being made, regardless of the person's seniority, age, or level of experience. As a flight crew, our survival hinges on the practice of assertive communication.
It is crucial that we pass down this mindset to the next generation to prevent them from being trapped in the same ineffective cycle that has hindered us. Striking the right balance is key - showing enough respect to be heard, while being articulate enough to persuade older, more established individuals who may be hesitant to relinquish power and status. As a community, if we can collectively recognize that we are pioneering a societal landscape unlike any before, we must embrace the realization that navigating this evolving dynamic is a continuous learning journey. None of us holds all the solutions, despite some feigning otherwise.
@@Donkor640well said. The internet ain’t running short on self proclaimed geniuses with zero qualifications and stubborn opinions
DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM AND GLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM, AND then a nice bowl of ice cream, and then MORE DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM AND GLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM..... YOU GO GIRL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Except the Baby Boomers are more responsible for dismantling America and selling the bits for profit than any other generation in the history of the country
I don't care about them at all but they did do that
I remember learning that the average lifespan of a civilisation/society is about two centuries before there is significant upheaval. Post-colonial Western culture is on track to implode as it is right now.
makes sense. england and china are still up and running but they changed drastically over time , we haven’t changed much but our rules so i agree we are going to change how our government works really soon
average lifespan is 250 years, America just hit 246 and... well....
@@eter8212 Wasn't that study politically motivated and ignored data that contradicted their hypothesis?
Tell that to china
@@corbinh6972 keyword "average"
What is the more frightening idea than the our civilization coming to and end is the fact that there are many in government working actively towards this goal.
Its not coming to and end per say. Just and end to the way we know it.
I believe this is why they are doing the great reset. One world government. With one world governmnet how could it ever go broke. Its bad for us either way, it will be war either way and sooner than later. .
I believe we can all agree that the u.s. cannot go on like it is.
These politicians doesn’t care, they will probably die from old age before society collapse
@XRP Ripple go on...
@XRP Ripple you're pro XRP? That corporate coin? 🤮
@XRP Ripple so it's not as bad I guess.
I could see society, American especially, hitting a scenario roughly equivalent to Post WWII....Recycling was inherent, I still remember Mom, and Grandparents saving even bits of string, etc. You grew your own food and supplemented with the local market. I grew up as a child with this model.
I did too! The motto was waste not want not.
And have food scrap trucks
Yes, I have a lot of magazines from the 1940s. In one Mag (either "LIFE" or "Newsweek"), people are told to bring used fat to the local Butcher who will PAY you for it. Butchers collected the fat and gave it to the government, to be made into gunpowder!
WHO KNEW?
Only if energy is expensive, too expensive to use.
no offense but it seemed to people (especially those live in developing countries) that Americans have been living a rich life for so long that they have no idea what it means to "save" things
Number of push ups and sit ups I did - behind schedule
Saving money for financial security - behind schedule
Collapse of Western society- ahead of schedule! Oh boy!
"Economists are about as useful as astrologers in predicting the future (and, like astrologers, they never let failure on one occasion diminish certitude on the next)." - Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr.
Sounds like something a Libra would say. JK 😊
Interesting I’m assuming you’ve gone through the study would you like to explain the errors you found with their method?
@@Outlawzero Exactly.
Economists occupy the same knowledge niche as theologists from the middle age. While other subjects focus on specific topics, they encompass everything.
@@Outlawzero errors I've found: 1- they are never right about literally anything ever
Resources are not entirely known due to some being " hidden" from calculation. I had a friend who worked in the oil fields in Texas in the 1970's almost all of those wells that struck oil were capped and not used. HE said their companies policy was based on the federal long game "use theirs first" at the expense of us paying more. The oil crisis was entirely a political game that was made at the expense of us.
IDK 🤔......
I remember hearing something similar about the "World's Oil - Fossil Fuel" running out?
I'm calling BS ... Oil is a natural element created by the planet. Air, water, Volcano Maga and other elements are products of the Earth's life cycle.
Fossil Fuel sounds misleading otherwise we could make oil out of people?
@@rarrodrig4703 Oil is a byproduct of dead organisms being cooked in layers of rock with large amounts of heat and pressure. Here’s the thing though… it takes a really long time for this process to happen (like millions of years) there is many problems with this. We don’t know exactly how much there is left or how the demand will be in the future or if the planet can “create” enough oil to keep up with us humans modern demands. Not to mention there are some who don’t want to step into the new electric age. Similar to how many old folks have problems going from the mechanical age to the digital age. We will be using dead old organisms (oil) for a while…….
@@rarrodrig4703 fossil fuel IS a misleading name for it, because many people think we get oil from dinosaur bones etc. We get oil mostly from ancient fern clumps and plant beds. All of the natural oil in the world is older than the first dinosaurs
This is some serious conspiracy theorising there? Just do yourself a favour and look up US oil production curve. I understand when someone does not get the fact, that we hit the global oil production peak. But the US crude oil peak is 50 years in the past. The fact, that in the US shale oils are being tapped now tells you how desperate things have become. Shales have an approximate 2:1 EROI as opposed to over 20:1 for petroleum. Think about that.
@ME This is actually a good question. First of all, crude oil was made "by nature" over millions of years. This "free" oil is used up to about 50% and the remaining 50% will be more and more expensive to extract.
Now to make oil, you need organic matter, high pressure and time. If you do not want to wait another few million years, you need to increase the pressure and/or temperature, which requires energy. What this means is, that although we could produce oil "in a lab" (and we actually already do in biofuels) the EROI is extremly bad (if not negative). I know of two processes: crude from algae and biofuels from corn. It is argued that biofuel has an EROI of 0.8-1.2 ... even if it is positive, 1.2 is very low. You need about 350°C and 3000 psi to produce oil from algae. The EROI numbers I found on Algal Biocrude range from 0.12 to 0.35. While it might be reasonable to produce biofuel for product use (plastics, medicine, etc.), it is utterly impossible to use it in energy production and very bad as a fuel. If we exclude transportation and energy, we are still left with 40-50% of global oil going into other sectors ade 50% of energy currently from oil having to come from other sources.
So TLDR; we can produce oil but it will not solve many of the problems caused by running out of oil.
Not to nitpick, but while Pompeii was destroyed...the rest of the Roman Empire went on its business. And when the western half of the empire dwindled away the eastern half kept trucking along for hundreds of years. Sure, the Spanish took control over the Aztec empire, but the civilization didn't revert into hunting and gathering. I can't think of a time in human history where there was a complete collapse of human civilization around the entire world so what makes this different in such a spectacular way?
BTW, love the content and look forward to the next one. These are the comments of a fan
This is a global system chain.
The pollution, exploitation, climate change, neoliberal control of the planet is almost universal here. We will all be affected in pretty drastic ways.
Choose any point on earth and we can predict what the factors and pressures of this global collapse will bring.
1,200 BCE "invasion of the sea peoples" was a fairly catastrophic collapse of civilizations in the Mediterranean and middle east (for reasons still unknown). Perhaps not world-wide (India and China were too far away to be affected), but quite widespread.
The big difference is that modern societies are MUCH more highly connected (and tightly coupled) across the world, so systemic problems in one region can be contagious in other areas too. An example is the recent supply chain issues, which have become virtually worldwide, as labor problems in one region become transportation backlogs, which turn into shortages of containers, which affect shipping worldwide (with feedback loops too).
Yea - the above mentioned Bronze Age Collapse is something seemingly possible.
They also had an intact environment to fall back on and reasonable population sizes that could be managed during a crisis. We don't have those luxuries anymore, our explosive population growth _necessitates_ modern farming technologies to keep alive (let alone happy), and our environmental destruction has destabilized many of nature's feedback loops. This collapse will be much more dangerous and destructive.
I came to say bronze age collapse, but 2 people beat me to it. In any case the bronze age collapse was so total that it nearly un-did the neolithic revolution. So it would take a serious confluence of incredible events but we could fall that far.
The thing is, we aren't going to die when this happens, like if a giant meteor hits us. We are going to first struggle to live through it.
If I had 1 dollar every time someone talked about doomsday, I would be a billionaire.
And everyone else would be due to inflation
@@paxtoncargill4661 that's one way to destroy the rich
Edit-I know it won't destroy all of them, but I was just making a joke
@@Tzar1 and everyone else
If I had 1 cent for every time someone said the word “and” I would be a quadrillionaire
It's not going to happen overnight. It's already slowly creeping in.
Cheap energy sources are slowly disappearing. Renewables only look cheap if we ignore they heavily rely on fossiles to get their raw materials out of the ground, to be built and deployed.
We don't really need to debate it though. Time will tell if that's right or wrong.
The original question asked thousands of years ago was, "What do we need to ensure our survival?"
The answer is the same as it always was, "a suitable world that can support life."
Everything else is gravy.
Now define 'life' ... Since we're talking on the net, we couldn't do that without some communication device and energy, both of which 150 years ago were unimaginable and yet they lived (obviously!) ...
@@apostolosvranas4499 Did you know that up until a 150 years ago, when someone in your family died their body was usually discovered by morning. Now, for some people it can be weeks or even months before they visit them. Suicide rates are higher than they have ever been in history for children. Maybe the first question, when it comes to life is, what is quality? Sure you can call your mom on the other side of the world anytime of day, but how often do you hug her? Sure you can take your children to a movie, but when is the last time yo told then a story as you drifted of to sleep with them?
An anteater is gravy? You strange person.
The world does not support life. Life clings to the world.
but money is clearly more important
"Here you go, have an ad"
Me: "Ha, there's no way you can't do that"
Me a second later: '____'
It's nice when people manually mark ad points because it's usually in an area that doesn't interrupt the flow
Yo that psyched me out for a moment
Watching this after US election is scary
The thing I like about these "predicting models" is that they are often wrong.
More like "always wrong" 😂
And sometimes it's better wrong
What do you mean extrapolation can never take into account the ambient chaos of the world?
Just like religion lol
The thing with fascists is they only hear what they want to
I read “Limits to Growth” back in the 1970’s. It had a couple of assumptions that didn’t play out. The primary one was that it assumed that the world would come to the level of prosperity that the US enjoyed in 1970, and that the resources to achieve that level remained constant. The amount of resources required to achieve 1970’s prosperity has dropped dramatically. We use less of everything to achieve higher living standards. On the third hand, that only pushes the dates into to future a few years.
How come there's a 'labour shortage' then?
How come we experience inflation and not deflation as the rule?
...The gripping hand...
@@sevenman9672
1) Mainly because employees want more money to risk dying of Co vid. It's not so much a labor shortage, as a shortage of people willing to work for chump change.
( *This is capitalism, businesses have no given right to cheap labor.* )
I'm glad some people are making this point. The historical record has shown Malthusianism to be wrong over and over again. I wish there had been a section on Julian Simon in this video.
I read "limits to the growth" some months ago. A key point in their final remarks I think is that evaluating the model results they envisaged a future where "some problems may arise, that don't have a technological solution" . A mindset change or shift then is needed, I believe this phrase is quite meaningful.
I work in tech and the tech industry is rife with the idea that technology can fix everything and that's not true , technology can fix a lot , it can make really complex calculations nearly instantaneously and process years worth of data in the past in seconds.
But technologies limitation is humanity and if we run into a problem we as humans can't solve technology isn't magic which will miraculously solve it for us .
It's the tragedy of relying on technology too much , technology can improve human lives but it can't become a replacement for the act of living as a human .
@@mariopot789 humanity is usually the weakest link within the systems that humanity creates.
The beginning of transhumanism, is to improve the behavior and logic of the human element.
They really needed a sophisticated model to to predict that "some problems may arise without tech solution"? It really depends on the specifics of the problem. And time marches on even if there is no solution, so that means society will have to adapt. Mother nature always has a solution. One of the most obvious problems is overpopulation, which no nation wants to address because of the religious implications. In the past, wars, famine, and disease kept the population in check. We will likely deal with one or more of those on a large scale.
Technology is also often limited by the corporations that own it, so no corporation is going to develop tech that solves the worlds problems if it won’t make the corporation money. Until there are financial incentives or government regulation for corporations to make the world a better place with technology, technology will only serve to make the ultra-wealthy more wealthy.
predictive propaganda programming
A weak dollar can signal an economic downturn, making me to ponder on what are the best possible ways to hedge against inflation, and I've overheard people say inflation is a money-eater thus worried about my savings around $200k.
The stock market is a way to hedge against inflation. Most notably amidst recession, investors need to understand where and how to allocate funds to hedge against inflation and still make profits.
in my opinion, the impact of the rise or fall of the U.S. dollar on investments is multi-faceted but learning how to grow your money has never been easier than now that you can explore and experience a truly diverse marketplace passively by using a well-performing portfolio-advisor.
@@mayacho4910 The stock market is down 20%. Keeping my money in the bank could be no good but investing is riskier, I wish to find better value deals as asset prices keep decreasing but lack the skillset, mind if I look up your advisor? I admit this is the only way for amateurs like myself.
@@stellamoore720'BRIDGET MARY TUROW"
@@mayacho4910 I just found the professional’s web page and have already written her, thanks.
"Necessity is the mother of invention" is basically blind faith in technology. It can seem true because it hasn't failed yet, but when you are looking backwards from a place where civilization is prospering, of course it will always be true. By most definitions of necessity, the first time invention fails necessity would also be the last.
The problem is that soon an event called the "termination shock" happens
and it's pretty much a series of events that cause a feedback loop and once it starts our already collapsing society will not be able do ANYTHING about it.
P much billionares gonna flee the planet and as termination shock slowly kills of everyone they will watch from mars as earth goes into a runaway greenhouse and becomes venus 2.0
I mean who knows? Maybe the scorching venus was also home to a civilisation only to destroy themself eventually, i think that kinda explains why no aliens: Everyone kills themselfs via greediness before they could go into space in big numbers
You're wrong. Invention is the process of failure that leads to the result you very gladly enjoy.
Inform about how tech you use work and how the world gets affected by it, there's no such thing as "blind" trust when you know how things work.
@paul giles that's not how invention works mate
@@TheXxdaknessxX agreed
@@TheXxdaknessxX Well yes the problem is that our "failure" will be termaination shock and if it starts it's gonna become nearly imposible to stop and given the fact how selfish some people are combined with our greed, distrust and general divergence (leanguages and countries) the chanches of sucessfully preventing termination shock is imposible.
So in a nutshell capitalism, greed, distrust =
Termination shock guaranteed
I've been saying that for years! I agree. I'm 25 and seriously worried about the direction we are headed and have been for years trying to make a difference, but the whole industry is against us, and I'm laughed off as a hippy for caring. 🤦♂️
you are fine, when the colapse comes you will still be young enough to take care of yourself
Still- thank you for continuing to care.
The collapse can not be prevented, and it will come a lot sooner than 2040. Next year alone is going to be catastrophic for civilisation.
I'm 26 and I've been washing my hair with flour, making my oen toothpaste and collect my handwashing water to not use toilet paper anymore
But while my neighbor says "meat is my vegetable" and the amount of garbage I pickup on the street it all seems useless...
Since the end is near at least I will be able to live normally as I am now and won't have to do too many adjustments lol
Care all you like. The collapse will come regardless. It's what those that hold real power want. A deliberate global restructuring.
"If you're watching this, you have access to the internet"
*me in 2077 watching it in a post apocalyptic digital library*
You must be in the Arlington library in DC lone wanderer, get me that library catalog for my book the wasteland survival guide and there will be something in it for you, hugs and kisses Moira.
2198 Infoverse Gang represent!
Me from my homemade computer in a garage: another survivor?
An apocalypse would likely instantly erase digital technology, all this data would become inaccessible. People don't appreciate enough how fleeting all this is.
@@fleshworm entirely depends on the style of apocalypse, not that many will result in totally unrecoverable data loss
The fact that the MIT was pessimistic about technology should make all of us think deeply
"When are backs are against the wall, we will innovate."
The thing is, while new innovations are needed, we have a lot of the tools we need already. We need a world that doesn't focus on profits. We need drastically less consumption, degrowth, and a simpler life style. We have a lot of things that could help solve problems but they don't work with our current economic system.
Amazing video and details.
Exactly. We need BioSociety.
Socialism ftw?
What exactly do you mean by “a simpler life style”?
lets start with u... give all ur stuff away and quite work... live in a tent like the natives
@@marz8386 Thats nonsense. What would socialism achieve?
CS major here with a fun fact(tm): Moore's Law was not an observation or a prediction, it was an imperative--a production target for the company Moore worked for to double transistor count per unit price every 18 months.
Interesting
We broke Moore's Law as soon as we invented Multi-Core CPUs. Because with Multi-Cores you can easily double your computing power, until other bottlenecks emerge. As Grace Hooper once said, an Electron can only go about a foot in a nanosecond inside of a vacuum.
Then why is it so oftne mentioned as a prediction
the greatest predictions are ones that are self-fulfilling.
In fact, it was merely an observation, which ultimately became the driving factor. But it did not start out as an imperative - that is a flat out lie.
"worst case scenario: well I guess it's time to start leartning how to forage for food in the wilderness"
what wilderness?
I just checked with my crystal ball of speculation and it told me that society will collapse tomorrow. Thank you for your time.
I had a chance for a conversation with Jay Forrester, the MIT professor who developed the Dynamo simulation model used in this Limits to Growth study and the supervisor of the graduate students who produced it. He was not impressed. His problem was not so much the methodology as it was the quality of the data that was used to feed it. Apparently, though not surprisingly, it was woefully poor. And while this problem may have been adddressed in the intervening decades, it will never be solved completely.
Thus, while the precautionary principle might well justify heeding the advice it gives, the model should never be taken as an oracle.
I believe that, according to this video our computing power and data input won't be advanced enough by the time a collapse happens anyway. To self analyze all living data beyond buying and selling to the point of becoming viable enough to be called an oracle? I mean with how advanced Tik Tok's tracking is, it could be partially possible in 10 years. The question is if humans will dictate decisions based off it's results regardless, but it's no different than market analysts trying to figure out everything today, just another tool.
@@SolidKnight64 There is a realm of the universe which no amount of data will ever capture, indeed science is methodologically designed to ignore. That is intention, arguably the most important attribute of a conscious mind. I will give you an example. No database in the world would be able to predict that Putin would invade Ukraine. It was so manifestly stupid!
and then you said "thus..." ........
Forrester also applied his modelling techniques to urban system dynamics to argue for cuts to welfare spending to motivate growth, in spite of the model's inability to simulate intra-urban inequality, and went as far as writing right wing columns based on this insight for an audience that didn't understand what he was doing... so talented mathematician and engineer as he was, I wouldn't take his word on economics
@@joshuavargas8279 This doesn't sound like the man I met, but I am prepared to believe you. The fact is, nobody really understands, although many profit by saying they do.
"As soon as humanity's back is against the wall..." the reactions to COVID and anthropogenic climate change seem to show that even if the innovation is there, the support for it and wide adoption is not guaranteed by a long shot.
You seem to have that backwards. The support for being pragmatic about "climate change" is very alive... as stupid as it may be. It is completely impractical as there are no innovations to make up the ground necessary, and there aren't even enough materials to make it remotely viable. It's all a joke. Enjoy.
@The Smith of Lies
COVID response is a bit of a poor example to use.
The reason is there are different interpretations of "back against the wall".
There's no denying that the rate the vaccines were produced is outstanding, and had COVID's death rate been in the order of 50% everyone would have scrambled to take the vaccines and would have followed every other precaution.
So, if we're all in agreement that our back is against the wall, we'll do amazing things.
Covid is a joke to events that cause societal collapse.
The data doesn't suggest our back is against the wall in either case, and in fact suggests otherwise. There are problems but those are far from the most threatening to civilization.
@@failyourwaytothetop Doesn't take a high death rate for a disease to collapse a society as interconnected as ours. Without lockdowns, travel restrictions and vaccines, the virus would've already formed hundreds of widespread variants, some more deadly than others. We survived deadlier diseases in the past only because travel wasn't as widespread and common as it is today.
This is really weird to see just after starting Foundation. The president banishes the professor from MIT to a remote uninhabited, inhospitable island to record all of human history, so that it may build back faster and stronger.
The cleonic dynasty ends at the end of the season.....the foundation main goal is not to record history but to end the cleonic dynasty and free the empire
@@Ian-lh9di The purpose of the foundation is very much what is originally claimed, to shorten the intergalactic dark age, it's just that the intended method is a little different.
Shame that the series changes so much from the books tho
@@thecryingsoul oh no I’m so upset to see that! The books are some of the best I’ve ever read but I haven’t seen the show yet! That makes me not sure I want to watch it, Game of thrones was bad enough.
@@jannd8170 My father, who is a bigger Asimov fan than I found the changes to be alright, so opinions will likely differ. I think my biggest issue with it more so has to do with the way these additions absolutely ruin the pacing of the (already fairly slow) books, and that much of the focus is taken from the foundation itself, and put on the showwriter's OCs instead
@@jannd8170 i had to stop watching about halfway through the run :( i couldn't take it any longer.
Can we hurry it up a bit?
I have to wake up at 5am every day for work and I’d rather not.
I feel like if societal collapse happens, it would be more due to the opposition to meaningful change rather than directly due to the 5 variables tracked (though, they are both heavily influenced by and heavily influence this)
Germany was fine with closing down their nuclear power plants in the mid of global warming crisis. People often chose one much more damaging thing over the other much more efficient one due to being ill-informed, biased or intentionally miss-informed by interested or ill-informed parties
Nuclear power the single most expensive form of energy generation, and Tschernobyll was unbelievably disastrous here in Europe. Thousands lost their lives to radiation, and even more were born with disabilities cause their mothers got radiated while pregnant. Angela Merkel saw a historic opportunity to break the grasp of power providers on subsidies and took it. She is a studied physicist, its not a thing of ill-information.
In addition to that, nuclear reactors are heavily reliant on cool fresh water for cooling, a ressource that will only get more expensive during climate heating. Climate change is a problem of overindustrialization, it cant be fixed with even more industrialization.
@@beerenmusli8220 you are the embodiment of stupid misinformation. Fuel costs can be given per kWh and tend to be highest for oil fired generation, with coal being second and gas being cheaper. Nuclear fuel is much cheaper per kWh. The disaster from all the combined radiation-caused incidents like chernobyl pales in comparison to fossil-fuel related deaths like black lung from coal mining. Finally, nuclear reactors are almost always built next to the sea where they can utilize the literal ocean to cool down their reactors. Stop lying just to push an agenda.
@@beerenmusli8220 Nuclear is the future
Yeah, that is why tech lagging is there. Irony is that they underegulate internet compare to nuclear and biotech and military. Plus, more medieval war.
Is a pity all the fear with nuclear energy. There is a lot of misunderstanding with what could be our ticket to the future. Starting with fission energy, and progressively move into fusion, and you have the ultimate energy source. And all that without mentioning all the advanced tech we couls create having a nearly unlimited and powerful energy source like nuclear fusion.
We'll get about 30% into the "business as usual" scenario before companies take notice that they're not making enough money, start raising prices, and further speed up the process.
👀👀 lol I think they've already done that
ah so right now
That's the feedback loop.
which is what makes reshaping and assigning greater power to government important. if the people use the government to change the incentive structure of the economy, it will shape the way we operate our businesses so that it is sustainable and has the least impact on the environment. so reward good behaviour we as a society value at its core and punish damaging behavior. if we say we are already doing this, it needs to be done better and quicker whilst backed by science and facts.
@@christianlee7244 government is not designed for the vast majority of people. It's not our game to rig. It's rigged against us to keep us out
What ur saying isn't wrong. But it's not for us. They give us these illusions but the truth is democracy is for the rich landowners and that's that.
The current state of the world is concerning, but hey, economic forecasting is like driving a car blindfolded and getting instruction from a person looking out the rear window.
lol that's such a good analogy!
You could make a similarly worrying explanation of economics too.
good analogy, but it assumes economists are ignorant of history (good ones arent) and that human nature isnt predictably cyclical. meaning if youve seen enough occurrences of events in the past you can more accurately dictate future direction depending on desired outcome.
still found your analogy humorous
And yet weirdly, we keep managing to stay on the same course they're giving us. It's almost like...they're onto something.
@@spacecowboy776 that's right, at this point I'm pretty sure History indeed repeats itself, well mostly