Record Number of VACANT HOMES, Bank Sales Increase AGAIN, 2024 Canadian Real Estate Market
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- Опубликовано: 10 июн 2024
- After a viral post on X about renting vs owning a home I analyze the data and monthly payment to show how unaffordable home ownership in Canada has become. We're now 2nd worst in the world for housing affordability. This weeks data includes new bank sale data and vacant home data from the Toronto Real Estate Boards and 20 other boards in Ontario.
Links/references:
creastats.crea.ca/en-CA/
rentals.ca/national-rent-report
/ 1785267579176538611
$700K for a glorified townhouse in Niagara Falls, ON? What the hell is wrong with the housing market in Canada? These sellers have listed their house at 2022 Peak Prices. All they need to do now to sell their house is to find a time machine and go back 2 years to 2022 to ensure that that the house will sell. LMAO.
🤔🤔🤔
I think once buyers stop buying it's inevitable for prices to stay where they are now.
Ponzi fiat-serfdom factory currency paradigm is in its terminal stage. Prepare accordingly. CBDCs will either “succeed” and permanently enslave the world or “fail” and put us in a greater depression.
Actually 700k is about the build price of a 2000sqft house. That might mean that it's not worth building in Niagara Falls. Or that this price is correct.
Use get one for 295k
YT deleting my comments.
Joke.
The rents have gone so high that nobody can afford to rent...let alone think about buying.
The rent is too damn high!
@@paulsammon538 Amen brother.
Plus landlords expecting 1 year up front. Disgusting!
75,000 vacant homes and people can't find a place to buy/rent.
Just the ones that are newly listed for sale. How many vacant homes driving up prices!?
Prices are too high, people can't afford.
@@aiqueenla2786over 6,000 sales in gta last month. Plenty of people affording it. 😮
From fellow landlords we believe renting is the best advice. Dont be stupid
there are a lot of "landlords' getting out of the business due to astronomical numbers of non paying and destructive tenants... the business is not for the faint of heart
@@tedebayer1
I do agree with you. It is a big risk having rentals but with big risk comes bigger reward. I live out in BC so I do feel for the landlords in Ontario. Hope things get better.
We decided to rent an apartment, we sold our single family home, downsized and rented a two bedroom apartment, financially for us it’s been a great financial decision especially as we travel in winter.
Bless you, enjoy life, it's too short to spend all of it on making banks rich 😇☺😇
Lock into those long term bond yields while they still exist.
we considered it, but honestly renting a 2 bedroom in our area would cost us more than our mortgage, property tax, insurance and utilities.
@@tedebayer1 Yes, I'm seeing the same in my area. You'd be paying $800+ more on renting.
Great points, Jon! I find it fascinating how defensive other agents get when you suggest renting is better than buying. For one, it's just an opinion, and currently, affordability is an issue in Canada. Sometimes rent is the best choice, especially if you can't afford the additional costs that come with home ownership. 👍😀
I have met many people who even today consider the house as an investment and think prices will rise, Canada's gdp is mostly relying on Real estate and immigration. Albeit it should rely on oil, natural gas, technology and what not. 🥲
Victoria BC. Room mate wanted advertised. In an 800sq’ apartment sharing with a couple and two cats for $1400. I’d rather pitch my tent than shack up with these parasites.
Great analysis - thank you Jon!
Prices will stay totally irrational, as long as the fed gov continues to do all it can to maintain high prices. How? Examples: 1) massive immigration; 2) demanding changes in terms of mortgage loans (amortization periods, payments etc); 3) Home Buyer's plan (from $35K to $60K); 4) purchasing Mortgage Backed Securities directly (something that the CMHC has warned against) first at $20B/year then to $40B/year and now at$60B/year) and the list goes on and on.
The RRSP contribution also went from 30 to 60 thousand dollars.
Your observation is absolutely perfect. It’s all government deliberate attempt to keep stimulating prices. Majority people in government are investors directly or indirectly, so clear a case of conflict of interest.
Great vid/post Jon. I have tried to explain to my boomer parents that if I bought today I would be paying more in just interest than my entire current rent but they just dont get it. Despite these numbers people are desperate to cling on to the home ownership dream even if the bank is charging way more than a landlord.
Agreed. Maintenance costs, property taxes, etc all add-up to make renting a much better financial decision. This is a natural consequence of a bubble in Canadian home prices. I believe we’re in for a significant price correction.
My property taxes, maintenance costs for in home, in a year, no where near what renting would cost our family, in the area we live.
Good honest summations! Thank you.
Hi Jon, 👍thank you for the data.
I came here from Market Mania. Thank you for your housing affordability presentation.
Rent is much cheaper than owning a house, but it is still high. It takes our family 3 incomes to be able to afford renting. It is ridiculous. I do hope the prices adjust closer to the real value of properties or majority of this country will end up homeless. In the best position are the people who bought their homes before the bubble and paid them off. The rest of us are just trying to stay afloat.😢
Many Thanks for these great content, Jon.
Very informative and professional, as always.
That is one HOPEFUL chart @10:52!! Thanks for another video. Been watching for two years (from the sidelines mostly, if you know what I mean ;) )
The vacant houses I see for sale are investment properties that have been flipped into duplexes with very high price tags! I believe no one can afford homes that are listed at 800k for 1000 Sq foot homes with basement apartments. Not many families I know want tenants in their basement. I know I wouldn't with 2 young kids!
2.4 Million views! That's crazy!
Great video Jon - thanks for posting.
Indeed
Thank you! You are batting a thousand!!
How many more years do we have to wait for your prediction a year ago that we would see 2018 prices in 12-18 months to be correct?
Dork
@@DTrent-uy1wl can't articulate a point so you resort to name calling. Classic!
@@johnnylongstocking183 are you waiting for a specific price by specific date? Are you seriously expecting prediction to happen all the time? That would not be a prediction if guaranteed 100%
This is great!
@@DTrent-uy1wl do you feel a little better now that you have gotten that off of your chest?
PLUS, there's the opportunity cost (lost interest income) on the $100k deposit, about ~$300-400/mo. Buying really makes no sense in most cases.
You forgot property tax as well,
Renting might be more affordable than buying but the cost of renting is so high that you can’t afford to save money in hopes to have a down payment for the future when the housing market comes down to affordable prices. I live in a small city of 50,000 and townhouses are selling for prices that 10 years ago you would pay for a single detached house with an acre of property. Something needs to give. God help our kids and grandkids of ever owning their own home
Trying to buy a half decent home in courtice Ontario.....and the prices are between 8 to 900 k .... unbelievable
I live in Courtice. It's sad how unaffordable everything is, whether you want to rent or buy. It's crazy, the house we own now and have been in for almost 30 years, would not even be an option for us to purchase now, if we were looking, as it would be too expensive for us.
From my observation as a realtor, the jump in vacant listings comes from the simple fact that sale of vacant property goes better and Landlords do everything to make Tenants to move out before they put it on the market.
I agree, tenants have too many rights now and if they decide not to move out or pay rent it takes way to long to evict them, so its way to risky to buy a property with a tenant in it.
Great analysis! Thanks for the hard work
Overtime I think rates will come down but house pricing will go up. They look opposites. And renting seems more attractive if you keep paying the same rent always, which seems more variable than the chances volatile interest rates. But it is more expensive.
In Vancouver, I've heard 50% of homes are mortgage free... so I don't expect a huge correction to ever happen in the Lower Mainland.
What if you put down 50% downpayment 5 Year fixed, 15 Year Amort and knock the hell out of interest with aggressive lump sum pre-payments?? Everybody is saying why would you pay so much in advance if you can invest that money elsewhere....
What do you mean by "Affordability will return"? House prices may go down a bit, but not much. It will be similar to 2008 except this time, the house prices will remain flat until such time that wages are equaled...essentially, when businesses decide to pay higher wages.
Thanks for your honest perspective, Jon, especially as a broker.❤
@Jonflynn-supportline24 Scam Alert
Hi John I am looking detached double garage house in Durham region and I have 750 k . Should I wait or buy it now . Thanks
Do you think Calgary market will also take a hit like this, only thing we have been seeing as supply shortage from last 4 years and no chance of migration slowing down while building can’t keep up, affordability is however also going out of window for more and more citizens everyday. What’s your opinion( I’m an investor). Thanks.
Seems like it will take just less than 39 years before affordability returns, unless we have the greatest new depression in history then less than 7 years
I been saying this in calgary! Look at any home in any neighbourhood for sale, and compare it to similar type home for rent in the same neighbourhood and you will quickly find out that rent numbers even though they ARE high, they are still cheaper than owning a home. Unless youre putting down over 20% downpayment of these properties you’re basically at a lost everything when you compare to simply renting.
Another solution, instead of buying a home, invest the money in GICs (5%) and pay the rent with them, so I did and the interest I receive covers much more than the rent I am paying.
If I consider 3000 per month rent, then 5% of 720k will be covering up for that. 🥲 Not sure in how many lives one can save that much 😖
GIC rates have plunged since January while bond yields have risen sharply. Only a total fool would buy a GIC over a long term bond or long term corporate bond.
@@parkerbohnn Plunged? Haven't they been hovering around 5% for over a year?
Don't you have to pay taxes on those gains, after everything I believe it only comes out to be 3.5-4% overall you made.
@@TT-fq7pl 5.20 down to 4.75 outside of GIC brokers yes plunged since January. One year and 2 year GIC's are for suckers that's why the rate is higher. Sane people only follow 5 and 10 year GIC's.
Fuel for thought for sure !
Can't find a place to rent. That's the problem. Too many immigrants. I'm not a Female punjabi vegetarian non drinker willing to stay in a bunk bed.
And what do you think how long will it take you talked about in the last few sentence (better affordability, lower house prices, lower interest rates etc)? 2-3 years, 5 or even more?
"Affordablity " how long will it take Br ? 5 years or
Real estate is Canada's one of main income source to the government and its shame that One of the best western democratic nation and biggest land living people can't afford to buy house in 2024 and loosing their houses too. Bad ☹️
Buying anything right now makes no sense. Rates need to drop down to 3% on a 5 year variable before it makes sense to buy. I'm a first time home buyer with cheap rent so background to my comment. Why Would anyone want to pay more interest than actual on the principle?
Vacant properties on sale - probably investment / speculative / airbnb properties that people are trying to sell before it is too late
I aint buddying up with anyone else in a home. Its my house. No renting to anyone. Its my space.
I totally agree with you analysis. Years ago we were told first 5years is interest on your mortgage!
i am quite sure that the proportion of the payment going towards the interest slowly goes down in a linear fashion over the life of the mortgage..but starts out at pretty much 100%
I found areas north of Gatineau very nice! Gracefield , Maniwaki and Bouchette
ALL WE need is interest rates around 8-10% and this mess will sort itself out really fast..
The government will do whatever it takes to avoid a crash so I think were in for a long ride to affordability with stagnant prices. Investors are getting out as there will be better returns in stock markets other than canada.
I sold my condo last year and have been renting. Mortgage came to trigger point so all my payment was interest. Plus maintenance fees, insurance and property tax. That monthly sum went out the window. I’m currently renting a newly renovated 3 bed house in Richmond BC for $3000. I got lucky on lower rent. It’s just a few hundred dollars more per month than owning and I get a huge upgrade in living standard. The house is probably worth about $2m. To own it, monthly payments would be double if I had $1m downpayment.
Pierre Pollieve made a great point in one of his videos about the distorted housing market in Canada. He compared housing prices in Niagara Falls, ON and Niagara Falls, NY. And, he asked one simple question, why are the housing prices on canadian side 3 times or 300% more than the the U.S. side on average, taking into account the exchange rate.
Yup, many people born after 1990 will NEVER be able to buy a house in Canada.
Yep, the house he was standing in front of on the Canadian side was my listing
Luke from Market Mania is right about Pierre. Things may get marginally better but we will still have the same core fundamental issues.
@@Picklemedia There won't be any change at all, except for a more hateful social policy.
The Swiss Bank UBS’ reported Toronto scored the highest in the world for the riskiest real estate bubble and that report was in 2022..
I agree, affordability will not be restored without a decrease in housing prices. I can't imaging wages and salaries rising to make it more affordable. So what does that mean for people who've bought homes in the last few years at these historically high prices? They will be pissed and for good reason
Affordability, Trudeau.'s gift to you.
Didn't have much to do with dipsh*t Turdeau so much as 'asleep at the wheel' Poloz the former BoC Governor who allowed the rampant fomo/speculative based Debt instrument ex[plosion on his watch leaving rates at ZERO for waaaay too long !
Don't worry folks! The real estate pumpers on RUclips will have you believe that now is the time to buy a home. If not now, then just wait till the BoC lowers rates by 25 basis points and the flood gates will open with bidding wars and people buying up all available inventory. LOL Prepare for the Great Canadian Real Estate Train Wreck coming to a neighborhood near you . Great work as always Jon!
I like it
yes its obvious how they are trying to entice people into buying, saying prices are still heading up up up, buy now!!..maybe they are worried the market will gently collapse.
Barrie ON, still have nice houses for sale, in a low budget, or some detached from 500k to 800k , not to far from Toronto, not too expensive, some places in gta , rent can go crazy, 3k for a basement, If you spend 3k on rent, you can spend on your own home.
buying a house anywhere in ontario right now is singing up for slavery. only thing id buy in this market is a trailer.
Yup. Zero tax liability which is sbout to finish off any home owner
Vacant homes numbers arise - Declaration of Vacant unit forms are being filled as expected. Also still it is not a bad option to choose ownership over renting. One does not have to go with a 4 bedroom house, just stick to your needs if required. Not to forget that rent is going to go up each year whereas the ratio of interest in your regular payments goes down with the amortization cycle. Also in the longer run, real estate is born to rise. It's another myth to expect lower home prices in a market where the gap between demand and supply is still increasing. It is not like the fact that people do have capital to invest or buy. It's just whoever is holding with patience, is a smart spender, and when the smart purchaser is going to rush into the market in 2025-2026, Boom you are back on track to Increase in prices with an Increase in demand.
Also you could make 5% on your downpayment from a high interest saving account
Inflation is 5%
you can check condollo for Montreal Statistics tho
being at the age where I am retiring soon and will be moving back to my home town, it makes no sense to purchase a home, due to the fact that your monthly mortgage payments contribute diddly-squat to the principal on the loan for the fist several years. Your equity in the home does not start to appreciate until several years have passed. At my age it's a no-brainer. I will rent in my new locale when I retire. I can't afford to buy something anyway.
We've been renting for twenty years. Trouble is finding enough bank accounts to hold $100k in each. Oh, and the fear that the banks will all go under and there's no deposit insurance in reality. Inflation is also a killer, owning a house you're keeping up with the market, houses we could have easily afforded ten years ago are now far out of reach (even with the cash).
Totally agree with you. I'm in the same boat where I don't want to buy an overpriced house, but then where do I park my money to keep it safe in case the banks go under (assuming the deposit insurance does take effect in reality). The equity market is also overinflated and I don't have the stomach for it given a recession is almost definitely coming/here. So confusing and scary all of this. What are you thinking of doing going ahead?
Knowone ever uses the real numbers it cost to own a home. That is how I shut people down right away who make a stupid comment like buying is always better. That time is long gone. I know many people who bought in the last 5 years that will be and are very sorry but rarely admit it. The time will come 10 years from now after paying massive amounts of interest, they sell and after all fees see what they are left with. Nothing wrong with owning, if you buy at the right time. In Canada, that time ended around 2017 ish. I will stay in my rent controlled apartment $1400/m and keep my wealth producing monthly dividends for me to retire early. This is coming from someone who has homes multiple homes in the past. We can all see Canada is screwed…. But John is right…. This will talk a long time to reach the bottom…… because so many “home owners” will sell their first child before giving in the keys. It’s ok….. popcorn 🍿 is ready 😂
Thank you for giving me hope Jon.
I am wanting to stay in Canada but I can't jusitify it as a non home owner.
Living in Calgary where there is no rent control it is very scary.
Rent control would have saved the landlords not the renters since 1980. Anyone who bought since 1980 lost their shirt. Edmonton is far worse for landlords.
Real estate investors and agents never seem to mention opportunity costs.
How much money are you losing by sinking your 100k in to the property instead of a GIC at 5%? You can’t pretend this opportunity cost does not exist. It’s guaranteed!
What is 5% of $100k compounded annually over a 60 month mortgage term? Add that to the cost of home ownership.
Let’s also not forget of the CHMC fees plus taxes. 4% charge upfront for absolutely nothing. 4% of 700k completely gone.
Now you want to cash in on your real estate investment? Well it’s not exactly a liquid investment by any standard. You will have to pay real estate fees plus taxes just to cash in.
Now where did you take the money for the down payment from? Your TFSA? Because all of your gains in that account were non-taxable. Your real estate gains on the other hand will be taxes (if it’s not principal residence).
Not to mention maintenance on the property and other dead costs paid towards absolutely nothing.
At the end of the day what it works out to is that your RE needs to be going up in value a certain % over time to make money. If it’s the same value or dropping over time you’re losing money.
own my house, paid off, monthly 433 property tax, 135 insurance, avg heat/hydro 200 for both, water 100 month avg. =/-1000 a month for 2300 sq f bungalow. I pass on renting., for now Right decisions at the right time always pay off.
Same... own, paid cash and just come here to see how people react to Jon's doomsday videos. I have come to the conclusion that "misery loves company" - a bunch a miserable sidelined buyers enjoying each others company hoping for a crash and wishing all those who are doing better, suffering. Market Mania is even worse. Perhaps the only enjoyable RUclipsr on this subject is Mark Mitchell - he provides real data in a funny way and leaves it to viewers to come to a conclusion. Sure, everything is overpriced but it does not mean the current correction will continue. Prices seem to have stabilized after dropping approx. 20%. Good for you and ignore the negative a daft comments suggesting they wish all current homeowners, mortgage/debt-free, crash and burn.
Good for you guys who own your own homes that are fully paid off. What you're missing is that the rent vs buy discussion and confusion is for new first time homebuyers. Buying just doesn't make sense when you can pay 2500-2700 in rent for a house for which you might end up paying close to 5000 in mortgage+property tax+maintenance+utilities and so on. You guys are lucky to have entered the market at a good time, most of the ppl now aren't.
With Property Tax, Home Insurance and in some cases neighborhood fees some people are paying 5,000$-7,000$ in mortgage. No doubt people are renting out rooms and basements to recover the cost.
Renting washrooms and garages too😂
@@bpatel4434@bpatel4434 Yeah, I have heard bathtubs are rented out in some areas as sleeping places for the night.
Prices will eventually drop if we hold the line. Interest rates to stay put, capital gains will take effect soon which will increase inventory slightly, and millennials are pissed off and making more noise that they missed the starting gun and have to live with their parents still well into their 30s and 40s..lol.. ugh. Keep up the fight.
They removed the cap gains from the new budget
I did the same rental vs buy analysis based on a $350k-$400k down payment, which would still result in monthly ownership costs being slightly higher than rent. And for a f*cking townhouse! This kind of downpayment affords one to buy outright a 3k sq ft house overseas in a city just as convenient and accessible with education on par to Canada's, but here still results in monthly carrying costs of under $3k on a house half the size. Stupid
It's INSANE to buy at these prices. Neverminding the opprotunity cost of my hard-earned cash being tied up in a pile of bricks, which instead currently earns $4k-$5k per month in a diversified portfolio, and is all liquid.
I'll never own a house, and my future self will thank me.
Canadians have themselves to blame for these shinanigans.
We have boc and trudoe to blame.... When Gov said go borrow and go buy they must take responsibility.
Landlords and 2nd homes selling investments / cottages is why increased vacant.
If you did the math and a localized area if you were rent locked 10 years ago or even 5 years ago you're better off staying where you are. Is the government keeps printing money then you're better off just 18 in and getting a house and never pay off the mortgage and sell it with the difference of always being in profit
our property taxes and home insurance together, could pay for six months of rent in most cities
It’s crazy
all facts of life these problems take some decades to get to normal may be it was lack of planning by related authorities in country
None of that stuff applies to Edmonton, AB.
This is the first year in many decades all the power of sales didn't come from Alberta. As is where is in Alberta.
I thought Alberta used judicial sale not power of sale?
Come live in BC the average rent is well over $3000 per month.
Where can one find bank listings ?
Hey John an avid viewer of your videos. I am in Toronto and making around 110k is there any option for me in Toronto/gta. I have down around 30k
I think once rates comes down and prices come down a bit you could get into a condo with reasonable fees
@@jonflynn thank you for the reply John, appreciate it
MTG rates won't drop much so if your planning on that your gonna be waiting years. Move out of the GTA and live within your means. Life is stressful enough not to worry about working to keep a house.
@christopherbarfoot8456 many jobs won't pay that much outside of the GTA
@@igboman2860 do you live in the GTA? I don't and there are tons of jobs in the jungle outside the city. It's not about how much you make it's manageable costs. Makeore in the city pay more. It's not relatable anymore.
Homeowners seem happier than home renters by a wide margin. So what does that say
Or how about the average homeowner net worth at retirement compared to a lifelong renter. The difference is massive
The costs of building is very high. Very little can afford it. Builders and investors stop and try escaping involving in the liabilities in this economic environment. Even the rent goes down, new comers especially the refugees families can hardly afford without help. How the government continues dumping in money with our money? The amount of population that needs help is enormous. It’s not just opening the doors. If you are serious, you plan and responsible for it. However, each government ones and go in around 4 years. The citizens have to take up all these and the future years to come (at least 10 years). If there is no responsibility in the action, our world will never be going better. What a mess !
You might throw in GIC earning with down payment.
Personally it all depends on down-payment!
Yup better off renting.... In a different country. Like one that doesn't torture it's citizens
Nice try realtors l hope interest rates hit 10percent it will straighten out their upselling sales tactics DA!🙈
Try Monaco and then Canada and Portugal seem like a big joke. So cheap.....
Canadian real estate is over over over priced .but Canadian government and real estate thinks otherwise.look at the big picture .34 years ago a bangalow house in Ontario use to be $200,000.how can Canadian government allowed this to happen . Canada has 2nd biggest land in the world and yet we dont have house.population in Canada is 3900000 million people.
LOL - you fell asleep. The population is 41 million and counting. It has not been 39 million for a couple of years and most likely never will be again.
People overpaid their houses and now giving up to banks , banks can’t sell them because their are still overpriced 🤑😵💫
DON'T RENT, YOU ARE PAYING SOME ELSES MORTGAGE , JUST DON'T JUMP ON THE HOUSING BAND WAGON LIKE ALL THE OTHER LEMMINGS, GO TO NEW BRUNSWICK
What’s your evidence housing market will drop? People said it will drop for years now 🤷🏻♂️
He doesn't have any. Look how bad his predictions for the real estate market have been. Not a single one has been correct.
He may be wrong but canada especially toronto vancouver most overpriced in the world & economy stagnant & inflation & int rates rates not dropping fast & quick enough..do the math
@@paulbadics3500 I guess you have never been to NYC, San Franciso, London etc. I think they would have something to say about real estate prices in comparison to Toronto and Vancouver.
Jon has been saying for years the market is going to crash. He puts out these cute little charts showing where prices are going, and they are never correct.
@@johnnylongstocking183the Dork strikes again lol
@@johnnylongstocking183you proved my point hahaha
With 30/40% of MPs owning rental property don’t expect much help from any elected politicians.
IF you can find someone willing to rent to you. Try renting a place to rent with 5 kids and a pet. Not so easy.
And they want 1 year rent up front.
Let the implosion begin,now we just need 900K to follow suit...
Every market carries a risk. Investors will take hit one time compared to families struggling in this high price environment
Ya but also you are on the hook for taxes and all repairs when you own
If you rent for almost half of what a mortgage costs in this present market, why not take the other half of your cash and invest it. That way when the market levels out and homes become more affordable (perhaps someday lol), you’ll have the money to apply to more principle rather than have it eaten up by the high interest payments.
I’m waiting for the stock market to tumble. Many will soon feel very poor, especially if their employer says good bye at the same time. This will be the catalyst, I think.
it's probably coming pretty quick here
Excellent points
In about 2 months if the fed pauses through june
PEOPLE DONT BUYYY KEEP YOUR MONEY. Let the real state agents shit their pants when they see no body is buying..
No, you’re not better off renting seriously my God no no no
You’re not better off buying either at least in Canada
Brace for a CRASH!!!
Nobody 'gets' it.... it's Real Estate/currency debasement based DEBT expansion...... go get a Peanut Buster Parfait and an Ice Cream Cone at DQ = $12.00
RIDICULOUS !
Should CAD continue to plummet, assets like RE will only continue to increase in value.
@@user-tr5zk8dj3t
NOPE !
You are missing the most important factor to Real Estate valuations.... that being prevailing Financial Conditions supportive of the valuations relative to "GDI" or 'Gross Domestic Incomes' available for Canadians under Canada's barely ~$2 Trillion dwindling GDP ..... are insufficient to service/maintain the Payments on the now $3+ Trillion combined Mortgage/Consumer DEBT imbalance.
BIG problem..... to the tune of a minimum $400B to $500B out 36-48 Months regardless of any BoC rate deviations from US Fed Policy ? and which represents still ~25% of the current $2.1 Trillion Mortgage imbalance alone ?
Simply put.... the debasement based DEBT expansion that has already occurred and resultant servicing GDI deficit..... is such that rates can not be lowered accommodative to supporting current valuations anytime soon without resurgent cpi core inflation.... and those excess instruments will have to attenuate one way or the other unless someone can pull a rabbit out their arse ?
Mortgage price chart says it all payments doubled from 2020-2024 😂