I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises of plummeting stocks which were once revered and i don't know where to go here out of devastation.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financlal future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?
’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
If you look at Asia, they protect their own people. As a foreigner, you're not allowed to own land that's why they're doing so well. In singapore thailand philippines ..... .Canadian government have sold canadians out
100%! This shameful government has sold out to international interests. Canadian citizens need to come first and large monetary decisions need to come with referendum style voting, so that the people of Canada have the choice where their money goes...
Well, plenty of average Canadians profited handsomely as a result, and they aren't complaining. Or at least, they haven't until now. It's easy to blame the government, but imagine the yelling if they had tried to do something material about the situation. "Meddling in the free market? That's socialism! I have the RIGHT to be stupid and greedy (and I plan to make the most of it)!"
For sure. I know an agent whose probably 62, him and his real estate buddies owned 2 dozen townhouses. Now offloading one a year to watch out for capital gains
Find a way to improve your skills to make your way in the new market. Market will not come back down to people. Middle class will shrink of course. But the hardworking will survive. Lazy people who are stagnant and bitch and want a crash will fall further behind.
😂 I mean feels like it Granted yeah we need to try our best to do the best for ourselves and not give up - you will be further ahead regardless of how hopeless it seems now
Investors have been pulling out of Canadian real estate since the week after our first Mar 2 2022 rate announcement. An example is Canadian iShares REIT, symbol XRE. Week of Mar 13 2022 Price: $21.20 currently: $15.64 Down 26.23%
@@althunder4269 BC, Québec & the feds are bringing in "beneficial ownership" legislation that will no longer allow people to so easily hide behind a proxy or numbered companies. Iirc the federal one only applies to federally incorporated companies (which imo is stupid, but they may be limited in their reach because housing is provincial jurisdiction), but I guess it's a start.
Investors buying multiple properties is not really the problem. At the end of the day we are simply not building enough houses considering we have one of the fastest growing populations on the planet.
@@willt2036that's nonsense. OECD in 2021 estimated Canada had 1.3 million *vacant* residential properties. Average people just wanting a roof over their heads, and to pay their own mortgage instead of someone else's, aren't buying them and letting them sit vacant, "investors" are. It's parasitic.
I agree. I know some aunts was able to accumulate 9 properties working cash jobs, we definitely have a serious problem. Good for her but not for everyone else who is trying to buy a place called home.
The answer is pretty simple: the lack of decent investment products in Canada led to people using real estate for meaningful returns. In South America, you can find lower risk products at 17%/ year yield (personal experience) so no need to rely on real estate.
Couldn't a foreigner move their capital there and live off of that? Assuming they have a million dollars or more. That seems like an exceptional return.
@amineaiffa I'm from Brazil and with a 1M, yes you can. However, things can turn south really quick. Very unstable! Even more than here after 8 years of the communist party.
@@TruuthMan-1what’s the alternative? Continue to let the banks gamble in the housing market? Maybe a couple banks should fail to bring the others in line
The banks would get bailed out, borrowers would go under. Liberals are merely trying to kick the can until Conservatives win so they can blame them for the impending crash@@TruuthMan-1
No government would want that on their watch. Then they'd get the blame and then they wouldn't get re-elected. That's all they care about. The election and keeping their place at the trough.
Fk banks they shouldn't have approved these over inflated home priced back when they were 190k - 220k with allowing these mortgages in the first place.
You are correct. Greed is the main reason and the real estate agents giving misinformation mostly among their own community. For example, last two weeks price rose on massive propaganda interest rate coming down. All these happens but government not performing its part is the main problem. First the taxation should be on family income, second first home for family should be lower taxes, rate, and property tax, with second steep increase. House is basically for living government took it as way to earn income to make money for unnecessary spending like throw aways. Now if us dollar collapse entire western economy will be destroyed for years to come.
This was a great video and commentary! Very insightful, backed up by good data and make sense. Thank you Jon for your service, even being so kind as to dispense guidance to the greedy investors out there! :)
Great video and great timing. I got a flyer in the mail today that read "I'm looking to buy houses in your neighbourhood. I'm an experienced house flipper and investor". I texted them back and said "stay out of our neighbourhood!" Not cool.
never saw this, but multi development style developers (single fam home condo townhouse, commercial, and more have public members as investors; buy whole homes for eg and build 2 homes on land, or buy whole block and build townhomes.
Flipping/investing is backfiring in our neighbourhood. A run down home originally sold for around $1.36 million to flippers on an exclusive street in Burlington, Ontario. The home was updated and has been on the market for 18 months and they refuse to lower the $2.4 million price tag. Another home around the corner sold for $1.9 million (about $200,000 more than what it was worth) during the peak of the pandemic and it sat vacant for a year with no buyers or renters. Where do investors get the money to carry these properties? Seems like crappy business model to me.
Benjamin Graham stated that Mr Market has 2 states. Greed or Fear. We have had a prolonged state of greed. If the government is not corrupt, we will move into unprecedented fear within a short time. Things will be affordable when that happens, and I am supremely confident that we are on the brink of total fear
Government needs to eliminate mortgage rate interest wright off for the investment properties. Because of this everybody gets lured into being a property investor. Only This way we will be able to see housing inventory come back in the market.
Very nice - easy to understand inventory sources. Will keep my out out on the upcoming recession/downturn and look forward to the videos that keep us informed as/when this happens and the opportunities to get into house again.
Foreign investment in Canadian real estate must be permanently BANNED in Canada due to housing crises, affordability and cost of living, and inflation/ debt bubble crises. Domestic Investment in real estate must also be RESTRICTED for decades. Priority: the home supplies should be available for FIRST-TIME buyers and NOT (domestic or foreign) Investors.
I assume you mean for buyers who intend to owner occupy, not just first-time buyers? I'm waiting to re-enter the market as a second time buyer and I just want a home for myself!
I agree with most of the points you made, but it there is one main point I see differently. The speculators that buy multiple homes and expect an increase in the value of the asset will not experience this going forward and since real estate in a stable market is not a liquid asset it will be difficult to unload the homes at prices they may be expecting and take a loss. If a speculator is losing on one house they are proportionately losing on all their houses since this portfolio is not diversified, it is in one asset class and the asset class is illiquid. Pretty dangerous game of musical chairs. This means a lot of delinquencies and I believe that the research should also be spent on mortgage delinquencies going forward. More price decline is inevitable where the average family median income is $78,000/ year and a median house is $800,000. The numbers don’t add up.
Recently, CEOs of all major banks in Canada met in Toronto to see how much money they need to put aside for delinquent mortgages. Not so many delinquent yet and profits for all banks as you may have heard are in billions this past quarter. It wont go delinquent enough as banks are smart and offering 50+ year mortgages now which was unheard of before in Canada. People will just work hard, pay on all the interest and hold on to their assets as long as they can, hoping for lower interest rates. I dont see the coming any time soon TBH. Those who have to sell will and the prices will come down but not as much as some have hoped.
@@southhillfarm2795well, in a way the banks have manufactured an unlimited am mortgage: the HELOC. So while I get your point specifically, the product is effectively already out there.
Few talk about the impact on demand (and supply) as much as you do. You’re bang on. The share of investor purchases has increased, fuelled by easy money. Why wouldn’t you buy an investment property if all you’ve known in recent memory is capital appreciation. It’s a no lose proposition …. right? The result is first time home buyers get priced out and their share has drastically declined in recent years. The only way to a more balanced long term market for first time home buyers is disincenting investors. Limiting foreign students (and the rents they generate), Airbnb restrictions, vacancy taxes, and many more disinvites are needed to stem investor demand and give first time homebuyers a competitive advantage to investors and a return to normalcy.
Thank you so much! A reasonable analysis backed by actual numbers. I’ve been saying this for a while now. Demand spiked while immigration was halted in 2020 and 2021, so it obviously was something else that caused it. This whole idea that immigration was driving up demand started at the same time that interest rates were going up and prices were going down. While it has certainly affected rents, I think that this whole narrative was concocted by the RE industry as a way of driving FOMO once the frenzy started to falter. There was a podcast put out last year by Bloomberg that interviewed an expert who had conducted an extensive study on supply in the US RE market. Their conclusion was essentially similar to yours. In particular, demand from investors for Airbnb was the main culprit in driving up prices.
Spot on again, Jon. Change federal tax policy and voila - net positive supply - as I've stated previously. That 2025 chart of investors contributing 22% of 795,000 would skyrocket for both figures if the following legislation would be effected on Dec 31, 2025. NO new non-owner occupied purchases within CMAs of residential real estate AND any previously purchased non-owner occupied residential real estate attracts FULL business income upon sale (no more capital gains subsidy and no partial grandfathering). As you eloquently pointed out - it's a demand problem, stupid!
Thanks for all your informative videos on being the scenes in RE Jon. Could you do a video about all the houses being bought by corporations or hedge funds?
Thanks, Jon. This is what I’ve been thinking all along. That glut of STRs - Airbnb - needs to be accounted for. Too much debt swirling around out there. All makes sense.
Cap mortgages used on second or more properties. Builders, municipalities all want the extra monies made by building more homes. This does nothing for the demand issue. I agree demand is the issue.
It's artificially manufactured demand though, not true "supply & demand". I'm amazed that so many people think that we operate in a "free market" economy. It's not remotely a "free market". It's entirely manipulated (e.g. by interest rates and economic policies that allow people with capital to borrow against the equity in property #1 to buy property #2, #3, #10, etc., and tax policies that allow hefty write-offs, to effectively lock other people out).
Jon is no different than any other real estate agent, he's actually worse. He uses the numbers that suit his narrative and ignores the ones that don't. Just because he says what you want to hear doesn't make him honest or correct.
@@johnnylongstocking128 Numbers do not lie. Show one thing where he is wrong or not telling the truth so I can help you understand it better. Please show examples, we are here to comment and help one another.
@@Triggerman2505 he purposely left out that the national rental vacancy rate just hit an all-time record low. If there was this surplus of houses that simply wouldn't happen and rent wouldn't have gone up 25% in two years alone. His own chart talking about interest rates and inventory shows how wrong he is. Interest rates were trending up for a decade while inventory was trending down, yet he says the exact opposite or plays it off as seasonal. It's not.
@@johnnylongstocking128 ok, so let me explain better. National vacancy rate for rental properties is low indeed, but he is talking about the vacancy rate period. Rental rate is low because investors with vacant homes are either selling them or hanging on to them (ample cash flow) and NOT renting them. There are a lot of empty houses out there. This does not skew the numbers.
Can you explain the upcoming changes to Realtor commission fees? NOW would be the time to buy since buyers are going to have to pay more out of pocket to the agent in the future. NOW is not the time to sell
when you can borrow less then 2% and get a 3% return in growth then rent it out to increase your profits you can see how people get into the housing investment. If people could borrow hundreds of thousands and even millions at 2% interest to start a business on a 25 year loan you would see the money move elsewhere.
Thanks for doing this in depth analysis. Youre one of the few creators that uses hard data to prove how false the narrative from the media is. Appreciate the work!
Jon is no different than any other real estate agent, he's actually worse. He uses the numbers that suit his narrative and ignores the ones that don't. Just because he says what you want to hear doesn't make him honest or correct.
Why Government doesnt ban having more than one house as investment...These investors are pumping the market and wants everyone to rent rather than own...bunch of selfish chaps
Probably has something to do with 40% of Canadian MPs being landlords/"investors" and shareholders in REITs. The Cabinet Minister for Housing prior to Sean Fraser was shuffled out of his portfolio after it came to light he was a RE "investor". Gross conflict of interest, the lot of them.
Indeed thoi Canadian investors are controlling the market since they own many properties and could care less about others who can't enter the market. This is Canada, the country of monopoly.
Problem is the cost of building a new home sets the selling price for all homes. A new home builder expects to sell what they build for the costs plus labour & profit (their wages). When you purchase a preowned home you may spend a little less, but the price is more about replacement cost. A buyer is willing to spend a certain amount for a used home instead of paying the price for brand new. And the sellers need to make a certain amount in order to buy their next home. If the used home market drops drastically, then new home builders will not be able to sell their homes at what it costs them to build, so naturally they will stop building and the inventory will go down. Then what do you suppose will happen to the existing homes for sale (supply and demand)? Adding to that is the rapidly increasing price of land (again, supply and demand).
Another excellent video Jon! I’ll reach out to you in 2026-27 when I’m ready to buy your guidance here and on X for the past 2 years is the best I’ve seen overall among all RE agents in Canada
@@rosatipicks lol, 99% of RE agents /speculators will say that Time will tell. What’s best is enjoying 5.5% even 6% savings accounts that covers monthly rent, going on trips, enjoying life with no need for a heloc, VRM or any upcoming mortgage renewals. RE speculators and RE investors should try it out one day!
@@jmela1370your a fool. This is a bear market 🤦♂️ …..1 interest rate decrease and market will sky rocket. Why do you think boc for the last year did not lower rates? Wait until he does…
@@HT-bb1dd i love it when RE speculators call me a fool Your the one doing high risk RE gambling and you’ll probably be left holding a huge bad of debt lol That’s your problem so enjoy it daily! Answer a simple question: In 2008, the US did QE and massively lowered rates to save US RE that was massively in debt. Why did US RE prices still crash from 2009-11 if rates were lowered? FYI, mass immigration won’t save 🇨🇦 from this mess. In fact it’ll make the economy way worse as wages drop, participation rate drops and unemployment rises in next dew years. Plenty of supply exists
Hey Jon, do you have faith in the House Sigma absorption rate chart? A predominantly new build area named Langford here on Vancouver Island was 160.7% in Mar 2021. It's currently at 17.2%
we still get fliers offering to buy houses on cash not as much as last year but still some. crazy it feels like they dont care if they loose some money as long as they can get a fraction of whatever they put in. if so money launder might be the cause, foreign money maybe
The scary thing is is if investors stop buying, builders stop building and then the housing shortage gets worse. Rent rates then go higher. It will take 3-5 years to feel this scary crunch.
Incredible how many intelligent people I know, bought into the politically motivated narrative that the housing bubble was entirely driven by immigrants. As if swarms of these people were arriving (while zero aircraft were in the air during COVID), taking up the menial wage jobs that they typically begin in, and immediately buy a million dollar plus homes. Right. Sure, long term population growth is a contributing factor, but Canada has had continuous immigration driven growth since it’s inception. This is entirely an investor driven bubble as it was in 1989. Good work Jon!
One of the biggest issue is heloc ,i know many people that wouldn't be able to get second home without it and it is unfair gle those trying to actually wave that done have heloc option
Jon you said that investors on renewals will have negative cash flow and will sell their property but did you consider that rent in the last 3 years went up 30% and when interest will come back to 2% prices will go even higher
Renters can't print money. There is only so much that parasitic landlords can extract from their tenants - even relatively wealthy tenants - before they simply can't pay what landlords are demanding. When they can't pay, the Ponzi scheme we call "real estate" starts to collapse.
How much money is on wall street being invested into the real estate market. The average Canadian doesn't stand a chance when they are competing with Wall Street.
Senator Merkley in the U.S. recently proposed the "End Hedge Fund Control of American Homes Act" (SB.3402). Hedge funds will fight it tooth & nail but hopefully it passes and is duplicated here.
We are going through something similar to what we experienced in 2020. Many people and investors are waiting for interest rates to decrease to buy a properties. Housing prices and bidding wars will go up ⬆️
There is no real investment barrier between Canada and the US, Canadian can still buy US stocks for example. Canadian governments are just safe guarding the RE market so people are still willing to let their money stay in Canada with a lower but safer return. They know it from the bottom of their hearts that Canada has no other better investment interests left since it's already behind for technology and innovation 😢
As Warren Buffett has said many times in the past, it is hard to beat good US stocks in general. Imo, over the long haul I would strongly consider investing in US stocks.
@user-vi8ci2bi6b Exactly, people fear the risk from the stock market, which is reasonable. While RE market is purposely built to grow indefinitely, plus the heavy taxation over stock or GIC gains, the choice becomes clear...
@mrbbqlvr4274 yes, but the governments put heavy taxation over stock gains. It's clear to me that they are curbing as much money as possible into RE market which they can easily manipulate
When you refer to investors, are they not buying homes to put into the rental market? And what about investors who buy homes needing work,.getting the work completed & then selling to a family who cant do major repairs? Arent these both "good" things? Why are investors bad?
I have recently researched about your RUclips channel and I found your RUclips thumbnail as good but they're not eye catchy so that people can click on your video. As a graphic designer, I can make your thumbnail more eye-catchy and clickable. So may I redesign the thumbnail for you? Let me know. Thanks.
@@johnly7688 Because it drives up costs for regular people to own a home. Some people buy them up and become slumlords. Better for people to all be home owners. Incentivised to take care of your own property more so than a rental.
Issue is the gov screwed up and not build enough homes while letting in crap load of foreign students and wrong immigration ( we need skilled trades). But limiting RE investment? What's next, limit how many stores you open or how many cars you can buy per house to keep cost down? Thinking like this is what's killing our economy comparing to the U.S. slumlords has been around since beginning of time. Punishment and fines need to be more serious but that's not an investment issue but rather ethics.
I believe policies should be introduced to discourage investment in real estate wealth creation, specifically in flipping properties in a short period for exorbitant prifits. Introduce high capital gains tax when selling investment properties. Mortgage interest rates for investment properties should be higer than for properties who buy to live. This will discourage investing in real estate. It's worth to look into how Singapore's National Housing Policies created affordable housing for the midfle class. Singapore encourages investments into stocks and there's no capital gains tax when you make a profitnon your stock market portfolio.
Toronto/GTA is bringing in a whopping 20% anti-flipping tax, which should be duplicated across the country (not holding my breath just yet, unfortunately). Also look up Vienna, Austria. Probably the best 'social housing' program in the world.
Did you start your career in high school 😆great content as usual ,nothing but the truth !! The quality of agents in canada is 🤢, If all agents were like you canada would be heaven !!
The cost to build dropped from $400/sq ft during 2021 to 2023 to $150/sq ft today. The whole thing was a big psyop. All who played the game are at risk of losing big.
I don’t understand the concept of investors taking supply away from the market. Homes get built and rented out. Where is the supply being removed from the market? What am I missing? What does it matter if it is occupied by a tenant or an owner? Please explain I honestly don’t get the point. 😂
You aren't missing something, Jon is. It doesn't make sense because it's not a sound argument that Jon is making. There is a supply shortage and has been for decades. If there wasn't a supply shortage, we wouldn't see rent up 25% in two years and the vacancy rate at the lowest levels in history.
@@johnnylongstocking128The reason rent is up is because of excessive immigration and inflation. The number of houses is adequate for our population but greedy investors have taken over that supply and turned it into rentals. There is only a supply shortage because of investors. How many houses do you have?
@@althunder4269 I guess basic economics isn't your thing hey. Yup we have just the perfect number of houses, that's why you are living in your mom's basement unable to afford to buy a house.
Jon, do you think your theory here applies to Calgary? Calgary seems to buck the trend at every turn. Pundits say Calgary prices will never come down because of huge in-migration and the money here. What do you say to that? I love your analysis. Thanks.
When a recession progresses and worsens, oil prices will collapse again and Alberta will see a large outflow of people. This happens every 5 to 7 years. Builders work on a lag, so chances are, as people begin to leave the province during poor oil prices, inventory will actually just be completing. This usually causes excess supply on the market and some excellent bargains. Rinse and repeat. If you are wise, you will save capital during the boom time and purchase property during recession.
@@amineaiffa if Trump wins, and reopens the Keystone pipeline, it may be good for Calgary too and yield different results. I say this often but if Pierre wins, there will be more investment in oil and that will be good for Calgary. Waiting game!
@@Triggerman2505Trans Canada has completely given up on keystone. As of June 2021 it's completely dead. Even if Trump comes back Trans Canada is done putting money into it.
lol I love the phrase “when the next oil downturn comes” EVERYONE will leave Alberta”. This year Alberta will pass 5 million people ya people will leave but it’s a not the Alberta of 1980-90s. Where is everyone going to move too? Back to Toronto? and what buy a house for 2 million after buying at the peak in Alberta and taking a lose if you think it’s going to crash. give me a break.. pessimism at its finest. Good for everyone in Alberta stuck through the toughs times, future is bright. only province in Canada building a true rainy day fund.
But, here in BC the rents landlords can charge are headed into the stratosphere. In BC there are lots of demovictions, and tenants wind up on the streets, or in a tent in a park, or back with mom and dad. Long time residents are giving up on careers here and moving elsewhere while immigration continues apace, backfilling both rental apartments and buying up properties. I doubt investors will sell properties here b/c they can pass on higher mortgage costs to tenants and immigrants. Ditto developers who are finding the current market hot (you would not believe the rate at which condo towers are being built). Many immigrants are immune to higher mortgage costs b/c they simply buy with cash. The BC government has enacted legislation to curb speculation with an empty home tax, and is forcing municipalities to allow higher density development, but I do not see the bubble ending for 10 to 15 years unless immigration winds down. A study of grade 5 students showed that in our local elementary school 45% of the kids come from homes where the language spoken is not English.
I don't buy into that. There is definitely a supply issue in cities with big colleges and universities. Mainly fueled by international students. People buying houses to rent to the massive influx of students coming here, because there isn't enough student housing on campuses. Even some of the colleges/universities bought houses to turn into rentals. That in turn decreases the supply for people like me to find a decent sized house for gis family at reasonable prices.
So basically, you just wanted to say that investors will move out which will bring down the price, and new home constructions are already more than enough. 1st point seems correct, but for the 2nd point, you need to consider population growth in the last 5-10 years vs new construction.
it is the only country where investors are the villains. Too sad that people still dont want to understand the real issues. This country need more businesses rather than relaying on immigrants money.
It is funny to me...investor are providing homes for renters .... there is also a rental shortage... so these renters will be out on the street when the investor sells.... yes definitely a investor problem (sarcasm), I am sorry, it is a supply problem... not enough houses, these investors aren't leaving the houses vacant
@vishavjeetsingh6883 the "real issues" are Canadians have a serious housing & homelessness crisis, largely due to "investors" and unprecedented immigration levels without us having the infrastructure in place to support everyone. "Investing" in real estate isn't "a business" that produces anything for anyone except profits for the "investor". When the "investor" sells it puts more homes on the open market that average people can buy, and pay their own mortgage, instead of paying someone else's mortgage. @@tavishannis574 "Investors" do not "provide homes for renters". Renters "provide homes for investors" by paying their mortgages. And yes, very many are leaving their rentals empty. Canada has 1.3 million vacant properties. Both of you need to get it right. Housing is a Human Right, not an "investment asset".
Aa soon as prices come down investors will jump right back in and there we go again. Same thing with interest rates, as soon as they cut them, boom its our old friend inflation.
@@jonflynn I think real estate is preferable to most investors over Bitcoin because it's tangible and there will always be a need for homes. I think as soon as the numbers make sense again they will jump back in, UNLESS many of them get burned so badly that they're behind financially than most of us sitting on the sidelines. That would give us a window of time to get in there. I hope that's the case, but these investors are very crafty with debt so idk.
I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises of plummeting stocks which were once revered and i don't know where to go here out of devastation.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financlal future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?
’Aileen Gertrude Tippy’’ is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
If you look at Asia, they protect their own people. As a foreigner, you're not allowed to own land that's why they're doing so well. In singapore thailand philippines .....
.Canadian government have sold canadians out
100%! This shameful government has sold out to international interests. Canadian citizens need to come first and large monetary decisions need to come with referendum style voting, so that the people of Canada have the choice where their money goes...
@@thealbrights4169 The name canada will be changed shortly
Well, plenty of average Canadians profited handsomely as a result, and they aren't complaining. Or at least, they haven't until now. It's easy to blame the government, but imagine the yelling if they had tried to do something material about the situation. "Meddling in the free market? That's socialism! I have the RIGHT to be stupid and greedy (and I plan to make the most of it)!"
@@michaelepp6212 He’s talking about foreign Buyers, not Canadians.
Dah, most people figured that out 50 years ago..
Too many real estate agents owning 4, 5, 6 .7 homes..SMH..
For sure. I know an agent whose probably 62, him and his real estate buddies owned 2 dozen townhouses. Now offloading one a year to watch out for capital gains
Charge them a protection fee for operating in your neighborhood. They increase your cost of living. There must be a significant cost for that.
Let's not forget politicians who have the inside scoop on everything
@@milhouse8166 grab some matches
There is a RE Agent in Prince George BC who has 7 houses as Airbnbs. She is all upset because of BCs ban on Airbnbs outside of a principal residence.
THEY SHOULD INFACT INCREASE RATES
Ppl need to quit complaining and find a sixth job already
Pretty much where things are at
Find a way to improve your skills to make your way in the new market. Market will not come back down to people. Middle class will shrink of course. But the hardworking will survive. Lazy people who are stagnant and bitch and want a crash will fall further behind.
LMAO
Finally advice we can all use! :p
😂 I mean feels like it
Granted yeah we need to try our best to do the best for ourselves and not give up - you will be further ahead regardless of how hopeless it seems now
I always appreciate your straightforward analysis using data rather than emotion. Keep up thw good work!
Investors have been pulling out of Canadian real estate since the week after our first Mar 2 2022 rate announcement. An example is Canadian iShares REIT, symbol XRE.
Week of Mar 13 2022 Price: $21.20
currently: $15.64
Down 26.23%
Same with D.UN it hit $30 a few years ago now it's $15
Why can't there be a ban for few years on households/individuals buying new houses who already own 2 or more properties??
They'll just put it in someone else's name or in a numbered company.
@@althunder4269 BC, Québec & the feds are bringing in "beneficial ownership" legislation that will no longer allow people to so easily hide behind a proxy or numbered companies. Iirc the federal one only applies to federally incorporated companies (which imo is stupid, but they may be limited in their reach because housing is provincial jurisdiction), but I guess it's a start.
@@lynb1022look for the loopholes for pols's friends. laws for commons but not for the tops
Investors buying multiple properties is not really the problem. At the end of the day we are simply not building enough houses considering we have one of the fastest growing populations on the planet.
@@willt2036that's nonsense. OECD in 2021 estimated Canada had 1.3 million *vacant* residential properties. Average people just wanting a roof over their heads, and to pay their own mortgage instead of someone else's, aren't buying them and letting them sit vacant, "investors" are. It's parasitic.
Excellent work from a real Real Estate Professional.
I agree. I know some aunts was able to accumulate 9 properties working cash jobs, we definitely have a serious problem. Good for her but not for everyone else who is trying to buy a place called home.
The answer is pretty simple: the lack of decent investment products in Canada led to people using real estate for meaningful returns. In South America, you can find lower risk products at 17%/ year yield (personal experience) so no need to rely on real estate.
I agree
dont mortgage yourself to have an "investment" that you're relying on others to pay off.
I'm a legal South American here, and I approve this message 😂
Couldn't a foreigner move their capital there and live off of that? Assuming they have a million dollars or more. That seems like an exceptional return.
@amineaiffa I'm from Brazil and with a 1M, yes you can. However, things can turn south really quick. Very unstable! Even more than here after 8 years of the communist party.
They could crash the market if they wanted to. Raise interest rates to 10% and get rid of the CMHC.
The banks would go under so that won't happen.
@@TruuthMan-1what’s the alternative? Continue to let the banks gamble in the housing market? Maybe a couple banks should fail to bring the others in line
The banks would get bailed out, borrowers would go under. Liberals are merely trying to kick the can until Conservatives win so they can blame them for the impending crash@@TruuthMan-1
No government would want that on their watch. Then they'd get the blame and then they wouldn't get re-elected. That's all they care about. The election and keeping their place at the trough.
Fk banks they shouldn't have approved these over inflated home priced back when they were 190k - 220k with allowing these mortgages in the first place.
Really hoping house and condos drop 50% to make them affordable again.... 400 grand for an apartment is absolutely ridiculous
Thank you Mr. Flynn for the effort you put into educating us. Kind regards.
You are correct. Greed is the main reason and the real estate agents giving misinformation mostly among their own community. For example, last two weeks price rose on massive propaganda interest rate coming down. All these happens but government not performing its part is the main problem. First the taxation should be on family income, second first home for family should be lower taxes, rate, and property tax, with second steep increase. House is basically for living government took it as way to earn income to make money for unnecessary spending like throw aways. Now if us dollar collapse entire western economy will be destroyed for years to come.
This was a great video and commentary! Very insightful, backed up by good data and make sense. Thank you Jon for your service, even being so kind as to dispense guidance to the greedy investors out there! :)
Great video and great timing. I got a flyer in the mail today that read "I'm looking to buy houses in your neighbourhood. I'm an experienced house flipper and investor". I texted them back and said "stay out of our neighbourhood!" Not cool.
That is awesome!
never saw this, but multi development style developers (single fam home condo townhouse, commercial, and more have public members as investors; buy whole homes for eg and build 2 homes on land, or buy whole block and build townhomes.
Flipping/investing is backfiring in our neighbourhood. A run down home originally sold for around $1.36 million to flippers on an exclusive street in Burlington, Ontario. The home was updated and has been on the market for 18 months and they refuse to lower the $2.4 million price tag. Another home around the corner sold for $1.9 million (about $200,000 more than what it was worth) during the peak of the pandemic and it sat vacant for a year with no buyers or renters. Where do investors get the money to carry these properties? Seems like crappy business model to me.
Ive watched this 4 times. Same with last week. Damn I love this channel.
Too many investors buying and turning into rentals.
Then why is rental vacancy at the lowest level in history. Jon left that little bit of information out on purpose.
@@johnnylongstocking128
Because "would be" buyers are stuck in the rental market.
@@johnnylongstocking128Excessive immigration but you already know that. New immigrants don't buy houses they rent from "investors".
Home purchases are at like 20 year lows bud.
@@alessandroc47 only in Toronto, which is trending back up. Get your head out of the sand and look around.
Great info, your analysis is always insightful.
Benjamin Graham stated that Mr Market has 2 states. Greed or Fear. We have had a prolonged state of greed. If the government is not corrupt, we will move into unprecedented fear within a short time. Things will be affordable when that happens, and I am supremely confident that we are on the brink of total fear
Government needs to eliminate mortgage rate interest wright off for the investment properties. Because of this everybody gets lured into being a property investor.
Only This way we will be able to see housing inventory come back in the market.
you are right, and we need a new government to do that. Just Turd-hoe will just drive us down deeper.
Very nice - easy to understand inventory sources. Will keep my out out on the upcoming recession/downturn and look forward to the videos that keep us informed as/when this happens and the opportunities to get into house again.
Buying agents are still recommending people offer $50k over asking, then selling agents can say they got $50k more than asking price. What a racket!
It is
Yes everyone is pushing you to bid max approvals. It's a scam.
Well then you're commission based, that's just saying "hey I recommend you give me another thousand dollars please"
BOC must not I repeat must not cut mortgage rates .all rate cut does helps investors Buy more homes and condos and prices go up and up.
I Have been hearing this for last 10 years
10 years ago there was 6 months of inventory
Foreign investment in Canadian real estate must be permanently BANNED in Canada due to housing crises, affordability and cost of living, and inflation/ debt bubble crises.
Domestic Investment in real estate must also be RESTRICTED for decades.
Priority: the home supplies should be available for FIRST-TIME buyers and NOT (domestic or foreign) Investors.
I assume you mean for buyers who intend to owner occupy, not just first-time buyers? I'm waiting to re-enter the market as a second time buyer and I just want a home for myself!
I think the horse is out of the barn on that one.
@@juliecoo.k Yes, that's exactly what I meant.
Hope you find your dream home, after a significant market correction.
I agree with most of the points you made, but it there is one main point I see differently. The speculators that buy multiple homes and expect an increase in the value of the asset will not experience this going forward and since real estate in a stable market is not a liquid asset it will be difficult to unload the homes at prices they may be expecting and take a loss. If a speculator is losing on one house they are proportionately losing on all their houses since this portfolio is not diversified, it is in one asset class and the asset class is illiquid. Pretty dangerous game of musical chairs. This means a lot of delinquencies and I believe that the research should also be spent on mortgage delinquencies going forward. More price decline is inevitable where the average family median income is $78,000/ year and a median house is $800,000. The numbers don’t add up.
Great point, but thanks for the comment
Recently, CEOs of all major banks in Canada met in Toronto to see how much money they need to put aside for delinquent mortgages. Not so many delinquent yet and profits for all banks as you may have heard are in billions this past quarter. It wont go delinquent enough as banks are smart and offering 50+ year mortgages now which was unheard of before in Canada. People will just work hard, pay on all the interest and hold on to their assets as long as they can, hoping for lower interest rates. I dont see the coming any time soon TBH. Those who have to sell will and the prices will come down but not as much as some have hoped.
@@Triggerman2505 you will never see a 50 year mortgage.
@@southhillfarm2795well, in a way the banks have manufactured an unlimited am mortgage: the HELOC. So while I get your point specifically, the product is effectively already out there.
They add up for doughheads
Better Dwelling reported sometime in 2022 that investors grabbed up to 90% of the supply in some areas.
Jon, great video, thank you.
Glad you enjoyed it
Few talk about the impact on demand (and supply) as much as you do. You’re bang on. The share of investor purchases has increased, fuelled by easy money. Why wouldn’t you buy an investment property if all you’ve known in recent memory is capital appreciation. It’s a no lose proposition …. right? The result is first time home buyers get priced out and their share has drastically declined in recent years. The only way to a more balanced long term market for first time home buyers is disincenting investors. Limiting foreign students (and the rents they generate), Airbnb restrictions, vacancy taxes, and many more disinvites are needed to stem investor demand and give first time homebuyers a competitive advantage to investors and a return to normalcy.
Great video Jon! Thanks for keeping us informed with good honest data.
Thank you so much! A reasonable analysis backed by actual numbers. I’ve been saying this for a while now. Demand spiked while immigration was halted in 2020 and 2021, so it obviously was something else that caused it. This whole idea that immigration was driving up demand started at the same time that interest rates were going up and prices were going down. While it has certainly affected rents, I think that this whole narrative was concocted by the RE industry as a way of driving FOMO once the frenzy started to falter.
There was a podcast put out last year by Bloomberg that interviewed an expert who had conducted an extensive study on supply in the US RE market. Their conclusion was essentially similar to yours. In particular, demand from investors for Airbnb was the main culprit in driving up prices.
Thanks for the info and comment
Spot on again, Jon. Change federal tax policy and voila - net positive supply - as I've stated previously. That 2025 chart of investors contributing 22% of 795,000 would skyrocket for both figures if the following legislation would be effected on Dec 31, 2025. NO new non-owner occupied purchases within CMAs of residential real estate AND any previously purchased non-owner occupied residential real estate attracts FULL business income upon sale (no more capital gains subsidy and no partial grandfathering). As you eloquently pointed out - it's a demand problem, stupid!
Thanks for all your informative videos on being the scenes in RE Jon.
Could you do a video about all the houses being bought by corporations or hedge funds?
Was your voice as crisp back then?
Probably a lot more desperate sounding
@@jonflynn 😂😂
Thanks, Jon. This is what I’ve been thinking all along. That glut of STRs - Airbnb - needs to be accounted for. Too much debt swirling around out there. All makes sense.
Cap mortgages used on second or more properties. Builders, municipalities all want the extra monies made by building more homes. This does nothing for the demand issue. I agree demand is the issue.
It's artificially manufactured demand though, not true "supply & demand". I'm amazed that so many people think that we operate in a "free market" economy. It's not remotely a "free market". It's entirely manipulated (e.g. by interest rates and economic policies that allow people with capital to borrow against the equity in property #1 to buy property #2, #3, #10, etc., and tax policies that allow hefty write-offs, to effectively lock other people out).
Another excellent video with valuable and factual data.
Glad you enjoyed it thanks
Hi Jon, thanks a lot for your data and information.👍
My pleasure!
ill believe it when i see it. if its easier for ppl to get homes, they failed cause they want us on the street it feels like
Why is John the only realtor that understands this? Or will talk about it... all the other channels from toronto and vancouver are clueless
Everyone knows it. But they have money on the table.
Jon is no different than any other real estate agent, he's actually worse. He uses the numbers that suit his narrative and ignores the ones that don't. Just because he says what you want to hear doesn't make him honest or correct.
@@johnnylongstocking128 Numbers do not lie. Show one thing where he is wrong or not telling the truth so I can help you understand it better. Please show examples, we are here to comment and help one another.
@@Triggerman2505 he purposely left out that the national rental vacancy rate just hit an all-time record low. If there was this surplus of houses that simply wouldn't happen and rent wouldn't have gone up 25% in two years alone. His own chart talking about interest rates and inventory shows how wrong he is. Interest rates were trending up for a decade while inventory was trending down, yet he says the exact opposite or plays it off as seasonal. It's not.
@@johnnylongstocking128 ok, so let me explain better. National vacancy rate for rental properties is low indeed, but he is talking about the vacancy rate period. Rental rate is low because investors with vacant homes are either selling them or hanging on to them (ample cash flow) and NOT renting them. There are a lot of empty houses out there. This does not skew the numbers.
Can you explain the upcoming changes to Realtor commission fees? NOW would be the time to buy since buyers are going to have to pay more out of pocket to the agent in the future. NOW is not the time to sell
I’m going to talk about it this week. Big news
when you can borrow less then 2% and get a 3% return in growth then rent it out to increase your profits you can see how people get into the housing investment. If people could borrow hundreds of thousands and even millions at 2% interest to start a business on a 25 year loan you would see the money move elsewhere.
I always believed you would not know true house supply until the investment return yield was taken away.
Could STRs and housing that just stands empty be a factor in creating the "need for more housing"?
Yes those are a couple of the reasons for sure
Thank you for breaking things down in these videos, so much noise these days, it is a breath of fresh air to just see some common sense and facts.
Thanks for doing this in depth analysis. Youre one of the few creators that uses hard data to prove how false the narrative from the media is. Appreciate the work!
@17:49 Supply versus population
@19:32 demand problem
Great video of a broker with an honest data backed view.
Jon is no different than any other real estate agent, he's actually worse. He uses the numbers that suit his narrative and ignores the ones that don't. Just because he says what you want to hear doesn't make him honest or correct.
@@johnnylongstocking128You don't have to post this same text repeatedly. It's obvious you are a RE agent and you don't like the truth.
@@althunder4269 prove me wrong. Still not an agent, try again.
Excellent video & analysis! 👌🏼 Learned a lot on this one
It is also important to note that months supply is heavily manipulated because of sellers re-listing properties multiple times in certain cases.
Another great presentation, Jon.
Great comparison what’s happening in the US
Very interesting video. Once again, I really like your content.
Thank you very much!
The greedy will get there karma
A lot already are
Their.
Why Government doesnt ban having more than one house as investment...These investors are pumping the market and wants everyone to rent rather than own...bunch of selfish chaps
Probably has something to do with 40% of Canadian MPs being landlords/"investors" and shareholders in REITs. The Cabinet Minister for Housing prior to Sean Fraser was shuffled out of his portfolio after it came to light he was a RE "investor". Gross conflict of interest, the lot of them.
great logic thank you
Mr Jon
My question is when. You saying when bank selling the houses
Where and how to find and how to buy
Please make a full video on this topic
They're on MLS, you'll need a local realtor to set up a search
so from your research it looks like first-time home buyers should get into the market in 2026? Is that correct?
Very informative show. Thank u.
Indeed thoi Canadian investors are controlling the market since they own many properties and could care less about others who can't enter the market. This is Canada, the country of monopoly.
We prefer to call those spiking the demand as SPECULATORS.
Problem is the cost of building a new home sets the selling price for all homes. A new home builder expects to sell what they build for the costs plus labour & profit (their wages). When you purchase a preowned home you may spend a little less, but the price is more about replacement cost. A buyer is willing to spend a certain amount for a used home instead of paying the price for brand new. And the sellers need to make a certain amount in order to buy their next home. If the used home market drops drastically, then new home builders will not be able to sell their homes at what it costs them to build, so naturally they will stop building and the inventory will go down. Then what do you suppose will happen to the existing homes for sale (supply and demand)? Adding to that is the rapidly increasing price of land (again, supply and demand).
Good point, the price of land is the big variable.
Another excellent video Jon!
I’ll reach out to you in 2026-27 when I’m ready to buy
your guidance here and on X for the past 2 years is the best I’ve seen overall among all RE agents in Canada
Prices will be higher in 2027
@@rosatipicks lol, 99% of RE agents
/speculators will say that
Time will tell.
What’s best is enjoying 5.5% even 6% savings accounts that covers monthly rent, going on trips, enjoying life with no need for a heloc, VRM or any upcoming mortgage renewals.
RE speculators and RE investors should try it out one day!
@@jmela1370savings accounts of 5-6% don’t exist lol. Can’t out-save for retirement. Invest and save your money. Work hard and enjoy life.
@@jmela1370your a fool. This is a bear market 🤦♂️ …..1 interest rate decrease and market will sky rocket. Why do you think boc for the last year did not lower rates? Wait until he does…
@@HT-bb1dd i love it when RE speculators call me a fool
Your the one doing high risk RE gambling and you’ll probably be left holding a huge bad of debt lol
That’s your problem so enjoy it daily!
Answer a simple question:
In 2008, the US did QE and massively lowered rates to save US RE that was massively in debt. Why did US RE prices still crash from 2009-11 if rates were lowered?
FYI, mass immigration won’t save 🇨🇦 from this mess. In fact it’ll make the economy way worse as wages drop, participation rate drops and unemployment rises in next dew years. Plenty of supply exists
Hey Jon, do you have faith in the House Sigma absorption rate chart? A predominantly new build area named Langford here on Vancouver Island was 160.7% in Mar 2021. It's currently at 17.2%
we still get fliers offering to buy houses on cash not as much as last year but still some. crazy it feels like they dont care if they loose some money as long as they can get a fraction of whatever they put in. if so money launder might be the cause, foreign money maybe
The scary thing is is if investors stop buying, builders stop building and then the housing shortage gets worse. Rent rates then go higher. It will take 3-5 years to feel this scary crunch.
Sounds more like an Ontario problem.
Incredible how many intelligent people I know, bought into the politically motivated narrative that the housing bubble was entirely driven by immigrants. As if swarms of these people were arriving (while zero aircraft were in the air during COVID), taking up the menial wage jobs that they typically begin in, and immediately buy a million dollar plus homes. Right. Sure, long term population growth is a contributing factor, but Canada has had continuous immigration driven growth since it’s inception. This is entirely an investor driven bubble as it was in 1989. Good work Jon!
One of the biggest issue is heloc ,i know many people that wouldn't be able to get second home without it and it is unfair gle those trying to actually wave that done have heloc option
excellent, excellent analysis.
Jon you said that investors on renewals will have negative cash flow and will sell their property but did you consider that rent in the last 3 years went up 30% and when interest will come back to 2% prices will go even higher
Renters can't print money. There is only so much that parasitic landlords can extract from their tenants - even relatively wealthy tenants - before they simply can't pay what landlords are demanding. When they can't pay, the Ponzi scheme we call "real estate" starts to collapse.
A national analysis of the Canadian real estate market belies the fact that there are dramatic regional and city to city and differences.
Love it, great analysis.
16 k subs ! Let's gooo buddy
How much money is on wall street being invested into the real estate market. The average Canadian doesn't stand a chance when they are competing with Wall Street.
Senator Merkley in the U.S. recently proposed the "End Hedge Fund Control of American Homes Act" (SB.3402). Hedge funds will fight it tooth & nail but hopefully it passes and is duplicated here.
We are going through something similar to what we experienced in 2020. Many people and investors are waiting for interest rates to decrease to buy a properties. Housing prices and bidding wars will go up ⬆️
There is no real investment barrier between Canada and the US, Canadian can still buy US stocks for example. Canadian governments are just safe guarding the RE market so people are still willing to let their money stay in Canada with a lower but safer return. They know it from the bottom of their hearts that Canada has no other better investment interests left since it's already behind for technology and innovation 😢
As Warren Buffett has said many times in the past, it is hard to beat good US stocks in general. Imo, over the long haul I would strongly consider investing in US stocks.
I refinanced my mortgage in 2001.
Took a 110k out, put 50k of it in Microsoft.
It's now worth more than my house
@@StormshfterYou can't beat the S&P 500 it's better than real estate.
@user-vi8ci2bi6b Exactly, people fear the risk from the stock market, which is reasonable. While RE market is purposely built to grow indefinitely, plus the heavy taxation over stock or GIC gains, the choice becomes clear...
@mrbbqlvr4274 yes, but the governments put heavy taxation over stock gains. It's clear to me that they are curbing as much money as possible into RE market which they can easily manipulate
When you refer to investors, are they not buying homes to put into the rental market? And what about investors who buy homes needing work,.getting the work completed & then selling to a family who cant do major repairs? Arent these both "good" things?
Why are investors bad?
"...dying and whatnot..." 😂
As a cause of increased inventory.
🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
Dying from clot-shot
The flu that flew
I have recently researched about your RUclips channel and I found your RUclips thumbnail as good but they're not eye catchy so that people can click on your video. As a graphic designer, I can make your thumbnail more eye-catchy and clickable. So may I redesign the thumbnail for you? Let me know. Thanks.
I never thought that housing should be an investment.
Why not?
@@johnly7688 Because it drives up costs for regular people to own a home.
Some people buy them up and become slumlords.
Better for people to all be home owners.
Incentivised to take care of your own property more so than a rental.
Issue is the gov screwed up and not build enough homes while letting in crap load of foreign students and wrong immigration ( we need skilled trades). But limiting RE investment? What's next, limit how many stores you open or how many cars you can buy per house to keep cost down? Thinking like this is what's killing our economy comparing to the U.S. slumlords has been around since beginning of time. Punishment and fines need to be more serious but that's not an investment issue but rather ethics.
I believe policies should be introduced to discourage investment in real estate wealth creation, specifically in flipping properties in a short period for exorbitant prifits. Introduce high capital gains tax when selling investment properties. Mortgage interest rates for investment properties should be higer than for properties who buy to live. This will discourage investing in real estate.
It's worth to look into how Singapore's National Housing Policies created affordable housing for the midfle class. Singapore encourages investments into stocks and there's no capital gains tax when you make a profitnon your stock market portfolio.
Toronto/GTA is bringing in a whopping 20% anti-flipping tax, which should be duplicated across the country (not holding my breath just yet, unfortunately). Also look up Vienna, Austria. Probably the best 'social housing' program in the world.
@@lynb1022 BC is bringing in a 20% anti-flipping tax also which will be province-wide
Did you start your career in high school 😆great content as usual ,nothing but the truth !! The quality of agents in canada is 🤢, If all agents were like you canada would be heaven !!
Awesome as always
The cost to build dropped from $400/sq ft during 2021 to 2023 to $150/sq ft today. The whole thing was a big psyop. All who played the game are at risk of losing big.
Source?
cost to build single fam homes very high in bc at least
Engagement
Realtors and investors destroyed the housing costs
I don’t understand the concept of investors taking supply away from the market. Homes get built and rented out. Where is the supply being removed from the market? What am I missing? What does it matter if it is occupied by a tenant or an owner? Please explain I honestly don’t get the point. 😂
They’ve taken it away from the resale and new construction markets and given it to the rental market.
@@jonflynn then why is the national vacancy rate at a record low?
You aren't missing something, Jon is. It doesn't make sense because it's not a sound argument that Jon is making. There is a supply shortage and has been for decades. If there wasn't a supply shortage, we wouldn't see rent up 25% in two years and the vacancy rate at the lowest levels in history.
@@johnnylongstocking128The reason rent is up is because of excessive immigration and inflation. The number of houses is adequate for our population but greedy investors have taken over that supply and turned it into rentals. There is only a supply shortage because of investors. How many houses do you have?
@@althunder4269 I guess basic economics isn't your thing hey. Yup we have just the perfect number of houses, that's why you are living in your mom's basement unable to afford to buy a house.
How about a ten year tax moratorium to build purposely built rental housing?
Great idea, will take them about 5 years to implement and start breaking ground.
@@jonflynn You're probably right.
Buying *"pre condo sales"* is not "investing." Short Barclays Bank strong sell.
Jon, do you think your theory here applies to Calgary? Calgary seems to buck the trend at every turn. Pundits say Calgary prices will never come down because of huge in-migration and the money here. What do you say to that? I love your analysis. Thanks.
When a recession progresses and worsens, oil prices will collapse again and Alberta will see a large outflow of people. This happens every 5 to 7 years. Builders work on a lag, so chances are, as people begin to leave the province during poor oil prices, inventory will actually just be completing. This usually causes excess supply on the market and some excellent bargains. Rinse and repeat. If you are wise, you will save capital during the boom time and purchase property during recession.
@@amineaiffa if Trump wins, and reopens the Keystone pipeline, it may be good for Calgary too and yield different results. I say this often but if Pierre wins, there will be more investment in oil and that will be good for Calgary. Waiting game!
@@Triggerman2505Trans Canada has completely given up on keystone. As of June 2021 it's completely dead. Even if Trump comes back Trans Canada is done putting money into it.
lol I love the phrase “when the next oil downturn comes” EVERYONE will leave Alberta”. This year Alberta will pass 5 million people ya people will leave but it’s a not the Alberta of 1980-90s. Where is everyone going to move too? Back to Toronto? and what buy a house for 2 million after buying at the peak in Alberta and taking a lose if you think it’s going to crash. give me a break.. pessimism at its finest. Good for everyone in Alberta stuck through the toughs times, future is bright. only province in Canada building a true rainy day fund.
😂😂😂😂
The double digit price gains this year have begun.
You need to really go after banks and name names of loan administrators at these banks. Pure criminal behavior
But, here in BC the rents landlords can charge are headed into the stratosphere. In BC there are lots of demovictions, and tenants wind up on the streets, or in a tent in a park, or back with mom and dad. Long time residents are giving up on careers here and moving elsewhere while immigration continues apace, backfilling both rental apartments and buying up properties. I doubt investors will sell properties here b/c they can pass on higher mortgage costs to tenants and immigrants. Ditto developers who are finding the current market hot (you would not believe the rate at which condo towers are being built). Many immigrants are immune to higher mortgage costs b/c they simply buy with cash. The BC government has enacted legislation to curb speculation with an empty home tax, and is forcing municipalities to allow higher density development, but I do not see the bubble ending for 10 to 15 years unless immigration winds down. A study of grade 5 students showed that in our local elementary school 45% of the kids come from homes where the language spoken is not English.
I don't buy into that. There is definitely a supply issue in cities with big colleges and universities. Mainly fueled by international students. People buying houses to rent to the massive influx of students coming here, because there isn't enough student housing on campuses. Even some of the colleges/universities bought houses to turn into rentals.
That in turn decreases the supply for people like me to find a decent sized house for gis family at reasonable prices.
So basically, you just wanted to say that investors will move out which will bring down the price, and new home constructions are already more than enough. 1st point seems correct, but for the 2nd point, you need to consider population growth in the last 5-10 years vs new construction.
it is the only country where investors are the villains. Too sad that people still dont want to understand the real issues. This country need more businesses rather than relaying on immigrants money.
It is funny to me...investor are providing homes for renters .... there is also a rental shortage... so these renters will be out on the street when the investor sells.... yes definitely a investor problem (sarcasm), I am sorry, it is a supply problem... not enough houses, these investors aren't leaving the houses vacant
@vishavjeetsingh6883 the "real issues" are Canadians have a serious housing & homelessness crisis, largely due to "investors" and unprecedented immigration levels without us having the infrastructure in place to support everyone. "Investing" in real estate isn't "a business" that produces anything for anyone except profits for the "investor". When the "investor" sells it puts more homes on the open market that average people can buy, and pay their own mortgage, instead of paying someone else's mortgage.
@@tavishannis574 "Investors" do not "provide homes for renters". Renters "provide homes for investors" by paying their mortgages. And yes, very many are leaving their rentals empty. Canada has 1.3 million vacant properties.
Both of you need to get it right. Housing is a Human Right, not an "investment asset".
Aa soon as prices come down investors will jump right back in and there we go again. Same thing with interest rates, as soon as they cut them, boom its our old friend inflation.
Is that what happened when bitcoin went to $15k?
@@jonflynn I think real estate is preferable to most investors over Bitcoin because it's tangible and there will always be a need for homes. I think as soon as the numbers make sense again they will jump back in, UNLESS many of them get burned so badly that they're behind financially than most of us sitting on the sidelines. That would give us a window of time to get in there. I hope that's the case, but these investors are very crafty with debt so idk.
@jonflynn you can't compare bitcoin to real estate.
Prices have already dropped 20% - where are all these investors?@@milhouse8166