UK House Prices 2024 | An Economist's View
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- Опубликовано: 14 май 2024
- Talking property and housing markets, Phil Spencer is joined by property economist Dr. John Boyle a Property Economist, to discuss UK house prices in 2024 and the UK housing market.
At Move iQ we believe its important to discuss what's going on in the market with a range of different experts to help you make your own mind up about what you think's ahead - no-one has a crystal ball but everyone has an opinion.
We hope you find this informative and useful - you can use the time stamps below to skip to a topic of interest.
👉 VIDEO TIMESTAMPS ⏳
00:00 Introduction
02:13 Housing market sentiment
03:23 House prices
06:27 Don't ignore the headwinds
08:26 Housing market dynamics
10:36 Rent controls in Scotland
14:04 Affordability re-balance?
16:42 Renting long-term
18:34 Advice if you're moving in next 12-months
22:04 Downsizing
👉 Dr. John Boyle is Director of Research & Strategy at Rettie & Co
🔗 / john-boyle-38204631
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The UK 24 years ago interest rates a healthy 5.89 percent.
A one bedroom house £45k
A Big Mac meal £2.88
20 cigarettes £4.80
A litre of fuel 90p
Average wage £18k-24k per annum
Today…….
Something has to give it’s obvious.
a good time to be living.
The politicians sacrifice the currency every time the need to "pump up" the economy in the sort term. It is basically that.
No house price crash according to your in house economist. They where saying the same just before the 90s & 2008 crash. Doesn't mention the amount of businesses going to the wall are rife and with all these people coming off there cheap fixes over the next couple of years this recession will only get much worse.
Most economists seem to be way off with there predictions. If I was going to listen to any predictions from an economist it would be Peter Schiff.
Are you waiting for a house price crash? 🤣👍
Did House Prices crash in 2008? 🤔 Think I missed that.
Will happen after general elections
it will crash, matter of times, before tory go they will do it. whole of uk bankrupt
Don't forget all the old people dying soon and their houses flooding the market.....
Sometimes I think people are out of touch with reality, I know more and more people who are getting in arrears with mortgages or unable to get on the housing ladder. I have even seen people move abroad as the UK housing is just getting silly. Even a cheaper house will cost a heavy monthly price in todays market. I have seen numerous reduction for housing in my area plus friends of mine in the building industry are saying new builds are not selling which is not surprising. Something has to give.
And thats because new builds are crap... as someone who builds them i can tell you theyre cheap awful quality structures that id be surprised if they stand for a decade...
And thats because the companies are greedy and the builders are forced to rush a crap job so they can try pay the bills... no time for pride in your work when theyve just dropped all our pay by 20% at the most expensive time to live in our lives, the whole systems a corrupt joke
Family of 4 buying a house for £330k. Mortgage = £1434 a month after a 15% £49,500 deposit.
We both earn 35k a year and left with £20 a month each after expenses, school clubs, insurance, car etc etc.
The UK is a mess!
Same house was £89k in 2009 and we both on 22k each back then.
It depends where you want to buy. Areas such as Bournemouth and Southampton prices are at least down 15% since 2022 peaks. Anybody in a larger property in the SE is probably in similar boat.
Prices are in general continuing to fall especially in the areas that went the most up during the pandemic.
The whole ‘property is my pension’ is BS as increases have not beaten inflation over the last 15 years! Doubtful they will again as Help to Buy has (rightfully) been canned, interest rates are high, economy is stagnant and high price ratios to income mean house prices are now very reliant on wages increasing but they aren’t due to fiscal drag . Which will continue because of high public debt.
Long story short house prices aren’t going anywhere and especially won’t beat inflation over the next 10-15 years. Housing is expensive and if bought in last 10 years is not an asset!
Having just sold a house in Bournemouth I can confirm this
Mark this post, I guarantee that won't be the case. Watch the market in the next two years. Despite all the opinions and fears, which we always get, prices will rise way beyond inflation. There are also going to he examples where that isn't true but generally it is
It depends on the property. Terraced 3 beds in soton are affordable for first time buyers and therefore go quicker.
100% I know 4 ppl in east London Essex area who haven’t been able to sell for 6 months, one in over a year despite dropping their prices by 10-20%. Can’t understand why the news keeps reporting house price increases. Guess it depends on the area I guess
@@oc1625 You're way off the mark, commercial property will nosedive first, then domestic soon after.
The greed on display is sickening
Hi Phil, always enjoyed your home/house series. Originally from Glasgow I now live in Toronto. Will watch this with interest
These economists are way out of touch. You just have to go out and see and you can see what is happening.
The whole interview is predicated on the tiresome presumption that in some way escalating property prices are good for the economy. Perhaps that might be so, for some sectors of society who have a vested interest in making money from property, as if were it were no more than a business.
I have personally, done well out of property, but nevertheless I would welcome a sustained drop in property prices over a number of years to the point where our young people and those on lower incomes, at least have a chance of buying property or paying a rent at a sensible price.
I believe it to be unfair to expect private developers to build social housing. Instead, I do think it the responsibility of the government to embark upon a wholesale programme of social house building. The cost would be substantial, but that is what taxes are for and if they need to be increased the cause is surely worthwhile!
One day, I hope that in the UK we might be able to develop a much more sophisticated attitude toward property, akin to many of our european neighbours who are preoccupied with the concept of the provision of a 'home' as distinct from the opportunity of making a fast buck!
It was the government that sold off the social housing to kick start a property boom that they have benefited from. The taxpayer should not have to build a load of new ones when taxes are needed for other things.Our young people will NOT be the beneficiaries of those new builds anyway 😳
I am in the downsizing Market and feel it an impossible task with no properties that will allow me to move down and free up the bedrooms and living space in my house.
depends what you want from life. i know someone bought much bigger house bigger mortgage no children because they have too many cars! why make life difficult. there are properties, just think of comfort and easier life
We are seeing biflation also known as cantillion effect. Debt based assets falling
What I don't understand with the rent for ever scenario is what happens when you are retired, how do you pay for rent when you are retired, and who wants to be in insecure housing when you are retired.
You get to live in a room in a shared house if you can afford it.
Personal decision. Usually young people rent for a few years as a couple
You have to take the cost of health care into account if you leave the UK and you might have heard of something called BREXIT that makes it difficult to live in Europe full time.
Such a good comment which I try tell my 30 years old mates who aren’t on the ladder and have become disillusioned
I often wonder what happens to renters when they stop working !
Thanks for your opinions and content always great to watch
This is interesting. Literally just watched an empirical analysis by PensionCraft. Adjusted for inflation house prices have only risen by 1.1% per annum compared to shares at over 5%. Only an average and there is cyclicality, the reality is unless get cheap mortgages, the investment case for buying houses is poor. We all have stories of success, but we are generally caught up with the obsession of housing in the UK. Time it right. Over the long run, housing is for lifestyle not an investment.
Much less competition in rental market as low stock will drive house prices skyward …..
They’ll be very few places that people can afford to rent especially on the south coast where property is extortionate plus no high paying jobs unless you commute to London
Unfortunately any economist that doesn't talk about house prices in real terms (not nominal terms) is not worth listening to. In real terms house prices are at 2013 levels. The problem is that your salary hasn't increased, that's why you can't afford to buy a property. It's simple maths, you don't need a PhD. Crunch the number and see for yourself, surprising this 'economist' didn't mention anything of the sort.
As a [parent of a late 20's and early 30's children, I don't see how house prices can stay high, there are few first time buyers as they can't get a mortgage, the most they can afford is £200,000 if they have a partner, one of whom will probably lose wages due to raising a family, so with this group not buying houses, the market can only move if it is the rich buying off the rich, a horrendous prospect for a good society.
And where will they be living then? With you?
Goggle adult children moving back home...
Government should have Help To Rebuild for young people to get on the property ladder - to buy derelict starter homes for a lower price and renovate them - similar to the redecorating budget given to those awarded social housing properties, but on an obviously bigger scale due to the cost
I have 2 houses, owned outright, one was inherited. I can't sell it, l've made it the cheapest locally comparable house by far, nothing is moving around that price. If l was to sell it & stick the cash in a high interest rate account for a year then that would be less than the rent l'll earn per annum when the tenants move in next month.
Phil, educate yourself on housing affordability in Canada…
Just sold my house of 20 years, protect your equity...
Pensio Craft data shows that in real terms after inflation, house prices in UK in 2004 were on average slightly above what they are now. Remember inflation last two years been 20%. House prices actually fallen during this time.
Yeah - its our wages that are shit
We should consider, if the UK birthrate continues to fall or remain low like many developed European countries, portions of the existing UK housing market may become unnecessary after a period of time as population reduces. The supply/demand situation could look quite different. Those who bought in a peak i would expect would be opposed to any large scale building plans which might now devalue their investment.
750,000 bed needing people came into the country last year. Do you have a spare bed for them, if not, then they will need to rent or buy.
@@laydownlaysall the doctors, architects and lawyers that sailed across?
In Plymouth just more overvaluing by estate agents is paralysing volume. especially this year. there are property commng on at 2022 prices and you just know they will not sell until they chop by 10%. The little that is sensibly priced sells well.
Looking forward to second home tax increases pushing HPs down in the Southwest as second homers fight to offload in Q4 24 to get out before Double council tax and Business CGT relief disappears in Apr 25.
Halifax Mar property prices dropped 1% month on month, not as bright as mass media said.
When will the house crash happen so property becomes affordable? Been waiting for nearly 20 years now.
lol, even if they crashed 30 percent it would have been cheaper to simply buy 20 years ago, if your waiting for a crash don't hold your breath..
20 years ago it will still expensive as I was earning just above the minimum wage.
Buy now anywhere. It's never going to be cheap
Why they dont mention that the real issue is that the regulation to build houses are too hard?. If you let companies to build they will build, but they cant with this regulation. If you artificially limit the offer of course you will have the prices going through the roof as soon as the demand increase.
Inflation (CPI) no longer includes fuel and food, so now you can call it the CP lie
Put it this way if house prices continue to rise owning a home is going to become a privelege for the few
Help to build
Help to sell
Hell to buy
Rent freeze
Rent cap
Perhaps it would be better if government butt out and leave it to good old supply & demand
There is a lagging effect with interest rate increases and cost of living increases, wages are not increasing with these increases the housing market prices in England are very overpriced and a correction is coming, simple economics 101
House asking prices in mid Sussex continue to be ridiculous. Some below average properties on for £5000/m2 😂 the estate agents that agree to this...🤣
Only seems ridiculous when the properties are out of your price range. Ofcourse you can look back over years gone by and pick out examples of overpriced properties. Over pricing isn't a new phenomenon. Obviously properties in general have been selling because the market on average across the UK is up 3% this year.
@@RabJ208 I assume you do understand how much £5k/m2 is?
@@nicktheengineer5976, 🤣👍
Landlords need to make a better margin, they need higher returns by increasing tax incentives. This will draw in more investment and will reduce, or at least level rental prices. When combined with strong legal protections for tenants this may cover all bases. Rent controls is Scotland will be about as successful as their other recent attempts at economic or social policy...
Pump Pump.
This is just guff
too many people and not enough houses to live in my money for the house prices is UP! and if renters think the new Renters Reform Bill is set to make their lives easier they're wrong ... many landlords will simply sell and or be super super fussy who actually gets to live in their properties ... renters expect hoops lots of them!
When you look at how much you actually pay back over 30 years houses 🏠 are possibly one of the worst investments ever and a complete f¥€king scam !! I am a home owner so I know 😅
Not a scam at all. It's cheap money. You could have always lived in a tree until you had saved up but you would have paid more. The difference between what you paid and what is worth today means you won so please stop pretending that you have been robbed.
A home isn't an investment, it's a home
It's all well and good coming out with a statement like that, but without context your statement is completely irrelevant and meaningless.
@@oc1625, anything that increases in value and that can be used to passeddown to future generations, is by definition an 'investment'.
Well it is a house, but passing down to the next generation when you pass away is hard. This depends on if it needs to be sold to pay for nursing home fees or the government takes because of inheritance, so all gone.
This guy has a PhD !! He doesn’t mention: ONS downgrading it’s house sales figures for the LAST 3 YEARS; the Bank of England’s static growth prediction for 2024; high taxes coming through in 2024; Interest rates to remain at current levels; 1.6M coming off their low fixed rate mortgage; Per capita GDP still FALLING; Wage growth FALLING; Resolution Foundation’s report on worst growth since WW2. Instead he talks about “cautious optimism” and “headwinds.” Sorry Phil; I appreciate you pressed him with some incisive questions but for me this guy has a vested interest in talking up the property market…. I don’t buy it.
I agree ☝️ that guy must be living in a parallel universe
Wage growth falling? Does that mean they're still going up?
@@FoobsTonYes, but not in real terms by exceeding the real inflation rate.
I don't understand the "tax on landlords" causing supply issues. If landlords sell, someone will buy, either to live or rent. Property doesn't go away, but property prices go down. New properties being built to invest, will change to build to supply new home ownership. I'm sure the property buyers won't just shut up shop. But removing the landlord profit taking, should benefit the potential buyer, and decrease inequality
Serco will buy them for the newcomers courtesy of british taxpayer.
We could always build council houses at affordable rents...just sayin
The government sold the ones we had. They also sold our gold. And now they've sold our country.
The housing market is global and hedge funds muscle in where they can. Given world population is set to increase by 25% by 2050 by a lowball UN estimate the appetite for housing is insatiable given the huge numbers migrating from overpopulated high fertility countries in the global south. You may not be able to afford a house in the UK but some cash rich business or individual needs somewhere to park their money. Look what happened to Vancouver.
The problem with the property market is far to much speculation? Buy-to-let, international investors, Banks, land bagging house builders pushing the price of land up so new builds are ridiculously overpriced.
Unfortunately nothing going to change for the future?
In my humble opinion the only way to change is a new property valuations at today’s market value for council tax
Rates 100K 1%
150k 1.5%
200k 2%
250K 2.5%
300k 3%
350k 3.5%
And so on? that will stop escalating property valuations and land bagging house builders.
Thanks for sharing
I won’t be downsizing as my property is my future pension. I have no dependents, in fact as a couple we will be upsizing again before the end of the year. I don’t see why prudent financial planning should be stigmatised or a stick to beat us with.
It’s a future pension but yet you want to upsize? And house prices haven’t beaten inflation for 15 years, much better off investing in the stock market and a work place pension!
@@pleaseentername. Invest in the stock market no thanks. As for a workplace pension I have already retired. My wife however has not, she has a workplace pension. It’s absolute shite, she only uses it because of salary sacrifice and her companies large donation. I never had a workplace pension, they did not exist when I started work in the 60’s. I invested in my property and my skills. Run my own Business Intelligence company. I am still a director of it. You giving advice without knowing someone’s financial position is very dangerous. I suggest you desist.
be careful how much value you stack into your property. as you say you have no kids you only get 650k inheritance tax allowance not the 1mil you get if you have kids. Just make sure you spend it all before you due to keep it of the tax man at 40%!!!
@@tourrhythmgolf-3to1 You understand nothing. All assets transferred to my wife have a spouse exemption. That means cash, main house, life insurance and all other assets. She will be left very very very well off. I have told her leave nothing spend the lot. Will be difficult to leave zero assets. She will have a £1 million allowance on her death ( correct until 2028 or if the next Government changes it)if she wants to leave anything to anyone.
@classicraceruk1337 You are incorrect if you have no direct descendants ( sons and daughters) the one of you that survives (assuming you are married) will have 650k IHT not 1M.
Im sure Gary (of Gary's economics) would have something to say abiut this. The middle class is dying. The inequality / wealth divide in the country will continue to get worse and will ruin the country for the benefit of the few. And no doubt the latest scape goat will be to blame (immigrants? Left? Right? Etc) when in reality. Recommend everyone check out Gary
Ask yourself. The government gave out £16k per person during the pandemic. If you've not gained 16k. Where has that money gone?... see Gary for answers.
People are losing homes because they can't afford repayments so of course its going to crash
Charlie's followers are waiting for this big 35% drop. Lol
And, seeing it slowly reaching this in many areas. I've seen 15-50% drops in different areas. All you have to do is look at the number of reduced properties on Rightmove!
@@NO-ahr-jee-BAHR-jee, where?
@@NO-ahr-jee-BAHR-jee, you don't seriously believe Charlie's nonsense do you?
@@RabJ208I only believe what I see with my own eyes, and have been doing my research for a long time. Examples I've saved include Norfolk (29.4%) drop of £125K (detached); -13% Lowestoft; 7% Colchester; -20% Beverley; Shropshire -17.6%; North Yorkshire -12%; Devon -8%, so yes I see it is possible -35% if the economic situation worsens. Not every area will see house price falls, of course, but many going that way with fewer sales.
@@RabJ208Charlie isn't saying everywhere will drop by 35% and that it will be sudden. I've witnessed a slow, but steady fall in all sorts of houses, top end to bottom. Some are still selling for sure, but only 2% of the ones I've saved have sold in around 250 houses. That's very few sales over many months. People just can't afford to buy, so something has to give and it is.
Rent forever = You will own nothing and be happy.
💤
This channel has destroyed Phil’s credibility for me.
Sadly, I agree. He seemed a genuine guy, but I no longer trust his housing market 'spiel'.
@@NO-ahr-jee-BAHR-jee, you trust Charlie instead? 😆
Yep, charlie has no vested interest in prices dropping or going up@@RabJ208
Crazy prices aren't lower.
Why do economists ignore debt? Seems so dumb to me.
Brits are high income earners , should be able to withstand
Down
😂 this really is 🦄 material. Just total and utter bollocks. This is far far far worse than 2007. Speak to people on the ground Valuers, estate agents and they will tell you it’s a car crash.