Why TRAVINCAL is THE BEST for High Rune farming? | Diablo 2 Math
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- Опубликовано: 24 авг 2024
- / inner_alchemy_gaming
Theorycrafting / Math, probabilities
PS. First travi run after uploading this video dropped an "Um" rune...
Edit: With 7 council minions, odds are 1/447 to get Mal+ rune
Love how my man just got straight to the point no intro just listen up "If you farm Travincal ..." 0:00 Love it bro, thank you for the great analysis great job explaining all of this.
I second this!
was thinking the same thing
Did he say jah rune? Hard to understand, and with CC on it said Chang lol. It's very possible tho, Last season I played I got Ber randomly off the Council w/o even trying.
I didn't know there were videos on RUclips that don't start with "Hey guys..... Sorry that I didnt upload a video for.... Many people asked me if I could make more gaming videos.... Here is an update about my other projects.... And this is the story how I met your mother.... So lets talk about Diablo 2...."
respect!
normal people: this is insane.. why would you do this?
D2R players: so you're telling me there is a chance?
There is? ;) xDDD
Did 5 days of travi runs with and item find grief/enigma barb...nothing
10baal runs a jah rune Drops. Rng is rng... :(
I got a jah after like 500 runs. Worth it.
@@randomclod385 i am above 2k runs :) sur was highest rune than ist. Not much more
@@Genoz1d agree. All my HRs were from random mobs. Not a single one from bosses or mini bosses. One of radaments skellys dropped my ber. A cham from a normal enemy before andariel. Just crazy
There is a major flaw in the logic for rune drops as well. You cannot simply "sum" the rune drops together into a single probability as some are part of the same "Runes TC", and the require recursive use of tables.
For example if you look at the Monstats file for the council members they drop from the "Council (H)" TC.
The "Council (H)" TC has 3 "picks". Since we are only looking at the chance to get a rune, of the available items in this TC it can only drop runes from the "Act 4 (H) Good" TC pick.
The chance of a single pick from "Council (H)" being the "Act 4 (H) Good" TC is 3/55.
The chance of a single pick from "Act 4 (H) Good" being the "Runes 16" TC is 14/130.
From here it gets messy, as the runes tables are recursive. Each "Runes X" TC has a pick of two runes in it (with the exception of Runes 17 which only has a Zod), with the 3rd pick being a new pick from the "Runes X-1" TC. This means you cannot simply get the sum of probabilities of all runes between Runes 12 - Runes 16 because the probability of a Runes is dependent on the probability of failing to pick a rune from the previous rune table.
So if you managed to get a "Runes 16" pick, the chance of having a pick that is Mal+ means you need to get it from the Runes 12, 13, 14, 15, or 16 TCs, which is ~ 1/76
If you multiply the chances together from the previous picks you can get your chance that a single pick from a council kill will net a Mal+ rune:
(3/55)(14/130)(1/76) == 1:12938
Since you have 3 picks from each Council Kill, and each Trav run gives you 8 kills, you will have 24 picks per Trav run.
The probability of a single pick being mal+, per Trav run would then be:
1 - (1 - (1/12938))^24N
Where N is the number of Trav runs you do.
To have an 80%+ confidence you would need to do 868 runs
by "8 kills" u mean there are 8 council members in trav? Actually there is always 11members total! Also if u consider horking(50%) that would be 16,5 so 49,5picks? Thats like 0,38% each run with hork?
Travincal seems really profitable for my hork barb i really think those probabilities for runes are off, and every streamer i watched that farmed travi many hours daily got better results.
@@Fifus92 Ah. yeah you are right I was going of the 5+3 you listed in your video. Yes if you consider horking you would get on average 49.5 picks per trav, which that would essentially take 200+ runs off our expected outcome with 80% confidence. The numbers listed from the Silospen can be misleading because I believe they appear to be with a 63% confidence, which isnt even within 1 standard deviation.
There is no denying trav is great, esp for a hork barb. I have a dedicated GF/MF Hork Barb for trav myself. I just suggest that when giving predicted number of runs it would be more realistic to either tabulate the runs against a specific confidence, or list what your given confidence is with your results.
@@AhafTheArab not my video! :) I agree with u, also thanks for ur comment it was really helpful!
@@AhafTheArab Could u explain this bit a little more? "So if you managed to get a "Runes 16" pick, the chance of having a pick that is Mal+ means you need to get it from the Runes 12, 13, 14, 15, or 16 TCs, which is ~ 1/76 " I want to figure out a chance for Vex+ - how exactly you came up with 1/76 ?
Already calculated all of that for p3. Cham comes 1 in 7432 runs (this is already assuming you kill all 11 council members), my calcs confirm that. 1/7432 is your base chance for Cham, it is in my C3 cell. Now I want to calculate "Chance for that rune or better" as: =1/(1-(1-C3)) -> here it's gonna be obviously the same, only one rune is present. But if we will go one step down to Jah (1 in 4955), then the new Jah+ calc is like this: 1 - (chance of not hitting the Cham) * (chance of not hitting the Jah), in my Excel it looks like this:
= 1/(1-(1-F3)*(1-F4))
So every rune adds one more bracket section. Following this schema all the way till Mal+, it's gonna happen 1 in 286 runs. With 55% hork, 1 in 185 runs. If you want to translate these numbers to p1 / online -> multiply them x1.375 since this is the bonus of Trav council members chance for "Good" category when you lower their NoDrop from p1 to p3.
Your number seem to align with mine if you divide it by 33 (I know you should do it like 1 minus (12937/12938)^33, but it's an almost perfect approximation), then divide it by 1.375 for p3 and you arrive at 285, which is almost the same as my 1 in 286.
Under 1000 runs i dropped a jah,vex and a ber. Thank you. This video is gold
Bro, this is a great video. I’ve come back to it several times to affirm why I run trav over and over again. Your credentials and case are very convincing. Sometimes the monotony gets to me. I found 2 jah and 1 ber so far.
Always open the chest behind Meph, it's a super chest.
Yep. I got Gul and Lo from that chest. A buddy got a Ber.
Yeah i also got a ber from that chest but have been looking for jah for 2 months now several hours a day but no luck yet 😁
Probably the best analysis of the mathematics involved in drop chance for runes. Love the video
There have been many more than this already, just posted on the forums :)
This is actually an excellent lesson about calculating probability in mathematics. It can be used very effectively for education. Well done.
This is actually a really excellent comment. It can be very useful for deciding if this video is very educational. Thanks so much! 🤔
@@t.jasonkittell2916 Don't you have better things to do?
Best viewer friendly statistically supported D2 farming advise Ive viewed and listened for my D2 farming guide reference.
No bullshit, scattered concepts while being straight to the point with conciseness.
Saved your video and you have my sub
after watching this video i did trav for almost a week with hork barb, this is what i found during that span.
notable runes:
2x cham
1x jah
1x sur
1x ohm
2x vex
1x gul
3x ists
6+ mals
2x um
2puls
6+ lems
notable uniques:
2x SOJ
1x 28 ar maras
2x tals ammy
3x shakos
2x oculus
2x war travs
True, my bot find CHAM and SUR for now
@@d2rbot450d2r got bot now?
I already do everything you've suggested (and I found a BER from mephy and a LO from the council, as well as 3 MAL runes from random mobs in Arcane, on the way to the Countess, etc.), but you've done a phenomenal job explaining. Subbed :D
Dude. You are a freaking legend. You cut right to the point, no bull crap, and the content was amazing. Instant subscriber.
Very good probability distribution my man. I wish you had never revealed this but someone else would have done it anyways so I'm glad at least you've done it VERY professionally. 5/5
Just wanted to make a post here, after watching this video i decided to grind Trav / Meph to level from 91-92. I am currently 1/3 of a bar from leveling and the highest rune i have got is a LEM. I did not track how many runs i have completed, but i believe it will be around 550-600 (I did math based on XP per run & how much XP is required from 91-21).
RNG can be a bitch.
Creeping up to 100 runs with no mid or high runes :(
Dude, I can't thank you enough. This video saved my gameplay. Last night in just 1 hour of Farm I managed to drop SUR and VEX (Travincal only). Plus some other rare drops with a certain exchange value. Using the set with the highest damage possible and 120% MF just to have some chance of SOJ (you never know).
I've never seen an analysis as detailed as this. I hope you make more videos. You take it to the next level.
I would love to see a comparison for H Cows chance to drop Mal+
Density is crazy there, you're just sacrificing the TC level for Uniques but they're not runes so doesn't matter for the Odds of Mal+
Everything has been already researched in that topic. Number 1 is LK all the way till Ber. Number 2 is Trav with a hork barb. Cows are #3 and come somewhat close to Trav only when you are looking for a Zod (which can drop directly on Cows). But still Cows are behind Trav.
And for runes all the way up to Ist, Countess is the best.
Everything I see about LK is Players 7 running the superchest.
I'm on BNet only so can't do that and random maps too.
Ignoring LK it would be cool to at least see a X cows over Y time comparison to Trav in the style of this video instead of just pure drop chance being LK chests, trav, cows
Went to a baal game that was full. Created a cow level and killed the first group and a Lo dropped.
@@MatiKosa LK is good but so god damn boring. Cant do it.
@@markmauk8231 Fully agree. It's mind numbing.
This is why I primarily only do Meph, Trav, and Lower Kurast Chests. Occasionally add Andariel, Countess, Cow King, and Pindle for some variety. It sucks that you have game creation delay still so Trav only makes you wait. Great information!
i think u can skip LK in multiplayer if u only play solo
Well done, good video, I was of the same thought as you because maths and numbers does buzz through my mind constantly. And another thing to add to this. For anything thats not a sorc . For example Hammerdin,, Travincal is the absolutely the best, always same spot , takes no time to charge there from WP. Rinse and repeat
As a blizz sorc it's quite easy. Just buzz around and pew pew and then tele stomp/static the cold immunes for your merc
Your delivery of information is confident and i r ally like to learn through your videos. I wish you uploaded more diablo content, id love to see you break down more of this game!
Thank you for sharing it. Aditionally, council members use to drop nice items and a ton of gold that can be used to gamble.
Loved the video, been playing diablo for 12 plus years and i still watch these videos hoping I will find out something new, was nice to have a video where someone goes more in depth with actual numbers and probabilities...look forward to the next video!
So the best chance in the game to find a high rune is still a totally absolute horrific shit chance. Awesome!
Trevinkle
Another fun thing is, I got a couple MAL runes... out of the things like chests/dead bodies that lie around from the Travincial waypoint to the Council resides. Another thing is me and a friend both run Travincial on a Hammerdin... all you do is grab a "Nokozan Relic" necklace which gives you +50% Fire Resistance and +10% Max Fire Resistance... if you want top that off with a "Dwarf Star" Ring which gives 15% Fire Absorb and 85% Fire Resistance with 15% Fire Absorb the Hydras are not a thing you need to worry about. But try to get your Cold and Lightning Resistance up too... there are some of them that do Cold and Lightning damage and they can do a ton damage otherwise.
Then all you do is start in Act 3, run up to the waypoint, teleport up to Travincial, run up to the entrance... spam Hammers... loot... log out, rinse, lather and repeat.
Also why log in at Act 3, when you always start at the Docks? Some people say you should port to Act 4 so you run less to the waypoint. Thing is... if you join/try to join... a game in D2R you get a timer on you, for about 60 seconds. If you not start at the docks... me and my friend are always TOO QUICK DONE... and the server gives us the usual bs message. So we start at the Docks and it is just right.
We "shotgun" Travincial... in one minute. We log in, teleport up, Hammer the Council, log out and are in another run in about 60 seconds.
You could start in A4, hit Eldritch and maybe Shenk, then do Trav..!
@@ericomfg Yeah you could do a quick Pindle, as Paladin activate your Redemtion Aura... deals with the skeletons on the ground. When you're in Act 5 already... shank Shenk then do a Eldritch and then Travincial.
However for me running just Travincial takes... if I run it slow enough, 60 seconds, long enough to pop into the next game. It is a quick, boring, and tiring task... that makes you want to stop bothering with Diablo 2 Ressurected.
This is some good shit. Its literally the first time i have hit subscribe within 2 mins of listening to author. Keep this shit up dude very very helpful, not only in helping people understand but it actually gives some hope in finding something too. bravo!.
Very cool and informative. Thank you for putting this video together.
Subscribed and I hope to see more!
Solid explanation , of all my 1k runs AT , pit , cows for runes specifically , i recall trav as one of the MUST farm place for high runes. Thanks and keep up the good work.
I think is just a matter of dont stay on town, i got sur/vex for council members next to mephisto, ohm/jah/ist/um from cows , ohm from chaos sanctuary, Lo from pindle, you have to farm and farm and doesnt spect anything, the drops will come. (i always play on p1 battlenet)
really? cause i log in game and dont play. i just hate playing the game. i just want to look at the character screen lobby
What build you farm with?
Or sit in trades lol.
You take the luck from all of us who droped single gul, 2 puls, 1 mal and 2 ums since release. Gg 😂
@@johnrehak No, he just killed 1000 times the mobs you guys did
Saw this video, made a frenzy horking barb, went farming and got a Sur (after about 300ish runs). Thanks!!!
Update: Add SOJ, Vex, Gul, 2 Mals, Shako, 2 Andy Visages, Wartravs, and a bunch of mid-runes. Is very very good (after roughly 1200 runs)
Another important thing is that these LOVE to drop jewerly. I have seen many unique ammulets (all but maras) and rings (all of them), droping almost one magic ring per run.
Also, that Kiras'guardian + Guardian angel was an amazing tip. My merc rarely ever dies, only when some monster has convition aura and I cant spot it to kill it first.
Add Lo and Cham, the rarest rune to the mix as well
seeesh my guy,anyother level content g.Thats why i hate ppl that are amazed by dubronsi,MrLamaSC etc.Their guides,are infformative and stuff,but this one is way way better,and in depth.And look at that.600 follower.Respect my guy keep it up.
Watched this video, did a bunch of trav runs (couple hours), found an Ohm, then made a Call to Arms. Mind blown. Looks like trav is my new favourite running spot. Thanks for the vid!
I'm not a Quantitative Analyst by profession and I don't casually run "SAS statistic" on my work computer :) I am merely a lowly player but I'm fairly sure you can't just multiply odds like that. According to your logic the odds determine a fixed number of runs to ensure that nodrop for the specific rune becomes 0.
Let me explain. You multiply the drop chance with 3 for 3 council members. That is basically 3 kills. According to your math your chance in 3 kills is 3 times higher. Now if you multiply by a number of runs (say 557) your nodrop chance for that specific rune would become 0. So essentially we determined that in 557 runs you WILL get the rune (nodrop for that rune being 0 right?).
Now as far as I know probability doesn't work like that. Each kill is a new lottery draw. It looks like you made the mistake of comparing it to buying lottery tickets for the same draw. If you buy the total of 1 million tickets for a draw you win all prizes. But if you buy 1 ticket in 1 million consecutive draws your 'nodrop' will not become 0 (chance to win=1).
Initially I just laughed but I'm trying to be respectful and explain but you're misleading the viewers. I can only hope your calculations at your job are not input for any important decisions like finances, insurance, or god forbid, biology / medical fields.
Regarding the introduction, it's awesome that you got a cool job, but you gain trust and impress people by providing accurate and real content, not by stating some sort of titles and how serious RL job you have. This is not 2001, a lot of us playing are d2 veterans that have a real job not unlike yours.
More videos like this please! Super resourceful and filled with insight. Thanks
Subbed 1 minute into the video. This is the content I try to fill my soul with at 7am. Thank you
Just wanted to share my results of running Travincal for the past 5 days.
Out of exactly 1200 runs so far, I've obtained 5 runes that are Mal+: Cham (32), Ist (130), Lo (535), Ohm (618), Ist (636). The number in parenthesis indicates the run I got the rune on. Evidently, the first 650 runs yielded fantastic results. I got especially lucky on the third day, acquiring a Lo, an Ohm and an Ist on the same day. But the next 550 runs yielded practically nothing in the high rune department, the highest being a Lem.
I guess I'll keep running to see when I'll finally break my present unlucky streak. But I've to say the RNG in this game is really crazy. You seem to alternate between periods of extremely good luck and periods of the absolute worst luck.
Did you get any jah or ber runes
This has been my drive for studying math for 20 years.
This is the intelligent, calculated information I’m looking for. Subbed, man, and I don’t even know what type of content you make lol
Appreciate the straight to the point nature of your video. I started running Trav exclusively instead of other areas when I farm on bnet solo maybe a few weeks ago. In the last few days I've seen a few gheeds, a maras, Vmagi, Ber, and Cham, tons of mid runes like Amn to Fal (and too many low to mid utility uniques to list). You also net quite a bit of gold for gambling (maybe 20-50k per run from just piles) Trav is the way to go.
In single player games?! I've done like 400+ in FULL lobbies and have not gotten a single rune above Amn yet!
Damnit, RNG!
@@anms_brk I did about 4-5 and dropped a ber on bnet. Gotta love rng haha
Bro! I started to do some of these runs just to test and within 17 runs I got a OHM... new fav run thankyou!
This is a great video! Thanks for sharing your work.
Man this is a really good videos dude. You can explain it so damn well. I hope for some more videos like this ! keep it up man !
This video was insanely helpful. Council has been something I've had to skip for a while. Thank you!
Damn not only are you knowledgeable about this but passionate! Yelling at us like a preacher!
I'm compelled to obey and will start doing trav... I PROMISE!
I know you are not posting as much anymore but this video is exactly what the Diablo community needed. I can confirm with absolute certainty that travincal is the best rune farming spot in only a week and a half I walked away with 3 gul runes, a mal rune, an ist rune and a Cham rune (which might not be the most valuable but certainly the odds are extremely low of snagging one)
I watched your video, logged into D2R, went to Trav and on my very first run I found a fk*** 29 Maras!!!
Thanks for the advise dude! :D
Update: 1 Ist 1 Gul 1 Vex in around 3 hours of farming ;)
Just got Vex,Gul,Sur and a SoJ in about 175 runs yesterday. Having an Item find barb helps alot with the 51% Find item.
true barb is the best class for trav farm
Absolutely unreal luck, but GL. 51% is quite low, 55% is optimal.
My biggest luck was like Lo on first run of the day and Ohm ~10runs later
1:500 odds doesn’t mean you’re guaranteed a drop every 500 runs.
Every time you kill a mob there is a 1:500 chance of dropping a high rune.
It’s combinatorial, not a permutation.
In a permutation after you killed a mob the odds would be 1:499 and after killing 250 mobs the probability would be 1:250, etc.
Very nice video, we can feel that you like calculating odds&probabilities, which can make people so addict to such games :)
loved this video. subbed. would love some more math/quant analysis on other data in the game. its fun to think about!
as someone with a stats degree, i appreciate you clarity and rigorous process
I started farming Travincal at the beginning of this video. Got an Ohm at 20min mark. approx 23 runs.
I had mixed feelings about Travi, but feelings mean nothing when a man slaps you in the face with facts... So, I decided to run just travi + durance (council members and meph only) all day and on run number 113 I got a Sur rune (I know, I'd prefer a Lo - more fg, but I can't complain). I also found Arachnid on the 83rd run from meph. The odds are I won't get anything for another 500 runs, but I'm determined to farm Travi now. Thanks bro!!
@Max Payne Well, he says in the vid that on average you should get a Mal rune after almost 600 runs. Don't forget that when you go travi + durance you kill 15 Council Members each with increased chance of rune drops. I got sur after 113 runs, so that's 113*15 = I was very lucky, yes.
Best Video! Keep them coming, I appreciate your hard work.
Every time i watch a video like this brings me hope, once I go looking for hr’s I become disillusioned and disheartened.😂
It would be interesting to see you post a video proving this analysis, you know like 1000-2000 runs. Because I can tell you I've done thousands of runs since seeing this video, and its just not true or accurate.
Me and a buddy use to joke about Blizzard having no concept of basic math. Look at the cube recepies to upgrade runes. They just had to throw in a gem as well after the low runes or it would be "to easy". There are calculations about how much effort it would take to upgrade runes from El to Zod and, well I doubt the universe are old enough to make that possible. No need to nerf by requiring gems as well.
You failed to realize that there is a big difference to what looks good on paper, and what is good in reality. The reality is that it's very difficult to keep up a good pace farming Trav for a long time. I'm an old timer and I will tell you flat out that public MF and public CS games will outfarm solo Trav horking by at least 200%.
There are youtube videos out there where 1000-2000 travincal runs were completed with the results of the rune drops.
Found a Sur rune within a couple of hours of changing over to these runs. Thank you for the excellent vid
Been farming trav all week. Easily 6 or 7k runs. My finds were 3 ist. 2 mal, 1 vex. 1 ohm. 1 sur. 1 cham. And last night, I got a Jah
Farming on what player difficulty?
@@Torswan I'm on console. So players 1. Hell
@@yungossan379 While I appreciate the input, mathematically, this doesn't add up. 10080 minutes in a week. Divide that by game limit (1.5 minutes) = 6.7k runs.
This isn't account for sleep, eating, shitting, or work. Shave off 8 hours a day for normal human stuff, 16 hours of play time, no break. Looking at about 4.42k runs.
I've been farming trav hard for like 8 hours a day for the past 3 days and have only seen a Mal. I don't doubt you got these runes but I think you might be misrepresenting how long you've played for. And others who read your comment might be mislead / disappointed.
That being said, I want your luck =)
A really good way to farm trav is with a geared frenzy barb, find item essential gives you 2x the drops hence 2x the rune drop chance.
find item is only about 50% success, so less than that.
@@gummypepsiify yeah, more like 1.5x
Barbs also the best mf and gf character I almost aways do a frenzy barb for trav eldrich shank and pindle aways find my best drops this way
More than 50% - Find Item actually always drops like it's on Players 7
You can check the latest vid on my channel to see how my Frenzy barb kills the council :) 55% hork barb will give you 1.55x the drops.
well you have inspired me to try trav runs on my zealer. 3rd run in and dropped Ohm. great timing.
great analysis and thank you for bringing your skills into your passion for d2
Trav is my go-to farming spot. I clear it in under a minute, and do hundreds of runs at a time. Over the last two weeks I got x3 Mal, Pul, Um, lots of Hel, Dol, a bunch of lower runes, and just last night, my first Sur! I've also got x2 Gheed's, x2 Raven Frost, Reapers Toll, and x4 skill Grand Charms.
Blizz sorc? Or a different build? I feel like there's too many immunes and you end skipping a lot ..
i got Jah , cham e 2 VEx there in 4 days lol. sick farming spot
@@takiitopotato2507 Zeal Paladin. Their immunes are usually fire and lightning. Ismail Vilehand is the only one that will spawn with physical immune sometimes, but my mercenary has Reapers Toll which has chance to cast Decrepify.
Great video my dude! Nice info and fun to get into the details!
Travincal has giving me Jah, Ber, 2 Sur, 2 Gul, 2 Um, Mal and alot of jewelry in around 500 runs. Occulus and so on. All on players 1. I know ive been very lucky, but still! Trav are fast and easy to get to with like a hammerdin! 👍
The odds of all these dropping in 500 runs is pretty much 0.
@@kennethgriffin5761 Got my GF as witness. Wouldnt make something like that up! Been extremely lucky! Not quite sure about the amount of 500 runs but not far off!
Some people have all the luck...I've done 1000 runs and all I got was 1 Ist, and not even a single unique worth more than a Pul or so.
Thx the calculation. I have to do the travi runs endless, as i see. But ONE thing is sure for me: if the "Issue Occured simulator 4" (alias D4) will not contain an inside trading system (like d2jsp or something similar) with an inside trading currency, i will really neglect the buy option.
I always farm Mephisto and always clear council members on my way to him in Durance of Hate L3. They drop particularly nice items and runes. I just had my first Ber and Oculus from them.
Great idea! And don't forget the chest your best bet for a HR.
@@darkwitch8648 you referring to LK?
@@thickening4036 He talk about the super chest behind mephisto.
Got a Lo rune because of you, thanks!
This is great data, but I don't recall you once including the number of players in a game and how that effects high rune drops.
Yeah, this is an important detail that seems completely missed. Is he doing single player with p8? How much do the chances change with fewer players since it's not realistic to have consistent p8 trav runs on bnet?
@@Jadenity He´s playing battlenet, p1. The results are also for players 1. (You can see it in the website were he got the data from) But yes, thats something he should have mentioned in the video, as it changes the odds quite a bit.
im just playing PD2 but this video is a gift for every D2 player. cheers n love u all
Phenomenal video man, thanks a lot great information
wonder where cows fits into this from a density and speed perspective.
#1 - LK p7 (valid for single player only)
#2 - Trav with a hork barb on p3
#3 - Cows on p5 done in around 5 mins
Cows are way worse than Trav, but noticably better than other places.
dope video, I love how deep you can dive into this game if you really want to
Thanks for taking your time and making this video. Convinced me to slam my head against the council! :P
0:10 No it doesn't mean that if you do 557 runs you will get a drop... that is just the chances. The chances of you getting a drop in the number of runs the odds "say" you're "supposed" to get the drop is only about 2/3 or roughly 68%. Think about flipping a coin. You're "supposed" to get a heads in 2 flips on average, but then list out all the possible flips you could get. "Tails tails" "tails head" "head tails" "head head", so only 3/4 of the possibilities result in you getting the heads you were "supposed" to get in 2 flips. As the possibilities go up that fraction will shrink until it approaches roughly 68% at a minimum.
I like doing arcane sanctuary on games with 4+ people. So far I've found Gul,Mal, 2 vex, Sur, Ber and Cham just popping chests and killing ghosts in arcane.
Silly question, do they have to be in the same area as you or can they just be in the same game for it to work?
@@Thorocious just in game
@@Thorocious There is a difference between player numbers and party size. The no drop chances only improves on odd numbers of players. E.g. two players in the game but in the same area (as close as they also get experience from killing mobs) gives the same no drop chance as three players in the game but on different areas. So if you want to split mf farm you are interested in 3, 5 or 7 players.
Really good vid straight to the point and explained perfectly
This is awesome content. Great presentation and explanation. Thank you for your work sir.
Excellent breakdown. Subscribed!
Dude, this is a cool upload. Where are you from? The accent sounds.. Swedish? In that case, fan så coolt.
I thought there are 11 council members in trav, Ismail Vilehand + 4 of his minions, Geleb Flamefinger + 4 his minions and forever alone Toorc Icefist?
Great video exactly what I was looking for. Cows have been pretty decent to me but you almost have to be in a game with other people and I'm not all about the super speed running I like to take my time and look at all the possible items lol
this was enlightening you're doing good work,sir
Man..! No joke I watched this earlier and have been grinding Trav and Mephistop the last 3 hours and just got a Jah!!! Have literally never got a Hr drop in my life!
Congrats bro 😁
Great video dude appreciate all this excellent information.
Love this. Now we need to know the difference clearance speed would make to the probability, because everyone says rune drops are also directly connected to clearance speed.
what?? LOL never heard of this before.
Loved this video, thanks.
Never thought about pull drop rates into a spread sheet, do some calculation and make a sensible decision for rune hunting. Nice Job!
thanks for ur time to save our time :)
Subscribed. Appreciate your expertise.
Probability doesn’t work with 1/557 chance means 557 runs guarantees 1 rune. It means you have 557 individual chances to get that tune tune with a very small chance.
You could get lucky at run 3. Or run 1806. There is not set number of runs that will guarantee a drop. It’s just probability.
Which often leads to profanity.
Also no valid comparison to say it's the best farm.
17:23 you should also open the chest behind. It take no time and increase also the odds for high runes.
Agreed. That is a super chest, like those in LK that are so popular. Always pop that chest.
It's the best spot for me. I've found 2 LO's and an Ohm recently, andI don't play much at all.
I love your scientific approach to the game:) Greeting from Prague
Love the statician angle on d2 drops... this perspective, while more complicated, is actually so much more relevant
The mans on point 100%, Full game trav and the side members near meph and I've run it all day "Full games" going to have to say I've found 3-4 hr's and some nice mid tier runes so far. Good Video and well explained :)
I have wanted to do this math so many times, but I always chicken out cause I’m not super great with that kind of math! Great video!
This is next level nerdy, and I fucking love it.
Because after 70 travincal runs I got 3 x Tal, 2 x Ral and 1 x Amn. So yeah - farm travincal, it's awesome, if you are lvl 20 in hell travincal ofc
You do an excellent job. Thank you.
Great job man, great video
I like the math stuff tbh. Appreciate the video
Excelent explanaition bro.. you are so clare... new sub..
That’s what i’m looking for, thank you.