Your Move OEMs...Who Will Survive?
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- Опубликовано: 23 ноя 2021
- Sandy gives a presentation on who will survive in the auto world.
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#China #Tesla #GM 
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My father worked building Pontiac's for 44 years. He bleed GM blue. He is not alive now and will not witness their demise. That would have bothered him greatly. In 2 days I am picking up my new Model Y. Given the fact he was a true car guy I know he would be impressed by my new Tesla. Miss you Dad.
And probably happy you bought a car designed in the US and mostly built in the US too. Honestly their first demise started about 10 years ago when they first had to be bailed out, should have never happened. Think of all the startups that could have been born had we let GM fail.
@@faisal181 and the sad part about the bailout 13 years ago was all the talk about “the new GM”. The Chevy Volt was trotted out as an example of their innovation. 13 years of half-hearted efforts it is too late and GM is gonna be gone soon.
@@kericks1991 GM had the EV1 electric car in the early 90's. Customers loved them but they took them back and crushed them. Fast forward to today, Ford's dealership are sabotaging the Mach E. Look at some of the purchase experience from people how bought the Mach E. GM doesn't have a clue and Ford is trying but the dealership cartel wants no part of the electric future.
@@jimindetroit9461 facts. I want to believe Ford can do it but they’ve got to reign in the cartel
The government kill Pontiac
"when a paradigm shift occurs, everyone starts at zero", interesting point
...except that one company that started 10 years earlier
Some have deeper pockets to start on
Good quote
Except the company that was smart enough to take notes before.
I’m from Glasgow, Scotland, where I’m guessing Sandy’s ancestors came from. When I was a young man (so not that long ago) we used to have one of the busiest rivers in the world for shipbuilding. The whole river looked like one giant yard. Today we have almost nothing, haven’t had for decades. The river is almost dead, with only one small, struggling commercial shipbuilder left. What went wrong? Well, many factors, but essentially it suffered from the same issues GM seems to be. Lack of foresight and clever management able to see the wood for the trees. I don’t know whether it’s fear, atrophy or just plain stupidity challenging the legacy automakers, but Sandy’s right - any kid in school will know better than they do where the global transport industry is heading.
Just look at the Brits. We were the number 1 manufacturers of motorcycles globally in the 60s, we had access to all markets and could have laid foundations for China and India.. the Japanese came along and wiped out our market share.. China will do the same to the US and European markets with EVs in 10/15 years..
China has trained engineers and scientists as their leaders, they’re going all out to rapidly grow and catch up. Theirs will be the green industrial revolution. It’s a double edged sword, the major powers will lose power and influence and China will push on green tech and make it cheap and probably help us transition globally to a cleaner planet eventually…
The only thing western powers can count on is our innovation and creativity that is stifled in China.. some how we need to out create China
@@eldictator1 Indeed, the Japanese took the Brit m/c industry out because their bikes were simply much better. Perhaps less stylish, but technically far superior with prices to match. I remember a mate of mine who got a new Honda 750 back in the 70s. I was insanely jealous!
@@eldictator1 I wouldn't count on China being content to be the global sweatshop, I don't think that's in their script at all. Unlike the Russian Soviets, who did stifle innovation, the Chinese are not. Look at how many Chinese billionaires there are - the CCP is allowing the private sector plenty of scope without allowing it to dictate the markets - as the west does. Meaning they can combine the benefits of longer term state direction and planning with the dynamism of short term capitalism. Their challenge will be to keep that together.
@@richardpluim4426 your words sound like insanity to so many. There is much truth in them
This is unbelievable! Someone involved in the ICE for decades to have this level of ... understanding (or should I say, enlightenment) is unbelievable.
Dandy is a visionary.
I don't care
Lol, perhaps owning some Tesla Stock is an incentive for the ‘understanding’
Yes Sandy using his eyes
YOU ARE 100% correct! China will prevail as the Japense did when they flooded the market with the Television. From that point on it was no stopping them from bringing autos to america
Ford where he used to work, has the highest recalls in the industry, not a very good resume' for Munro, if he was so important making policys, just another opportunist...and taking other peoples products apart and claiming to know what stuff costs, is bizarre, he has no idea what mfgs. have deals with suppliers for all the thousands and thousands of components that go into a car, it's nonsense..monster makers like VW and TOYota order 1 million lug nuts from a supplier is certainly getting a better price than some Tesla operation with hardly any production
"Don't save me any money! I can't afford it."
Great quote! I found this to be true when buying tools that I need to be reliable.
I buy only the top brand names like Milwaukee and Dewalt (Ridgid a times), but even those are MIC , mostly, Dewalt from Mexico, USA has outsourced manufacturing to China mostly, chasing the Dollar savings is the MBA job.
Or, as i like to say: i am not rich enough to buy cheap things
@@aurelio-reymilaorcabal9669 Milwaukee is neither owned nor made in the states (for the most part).
Maybe they do some research there and a few selected parts. Maybe...
or as my Dad used to say - Pay Cheap, Pay Twice. A mantra i've lived by ever since
My whole family is GM. I used to be the biggest fan but in just the past few years, their true colors started to become apparent to me. Now, looking to being one of the first in my family to go away from GM and take delivery of a Model 3. I see the writing on the wall. Their days are coming to an end. I'm jumping ship before I get stuck with a vehicle and brand that's no longer around.
That is terrific to hear from a former GM fan! My father-in-law (not technically) had worked for GM. Now getting his pension from them. But after an accident at 92 years old he finally stopped driving. Which means he is going to purchasing anymore GM's
I want a Bolt when they get cheap again, but it probably won't be my last car.
@@JohnDoe-mx1sq I heard the bolt is super hot. Like on fire! Just don't park it in your garage.
@@pornstarpat more newly sold BMWs have spontaneously combusted and been recalled for spontaneous combustion than Bolts. It also occurs at a higher rate in BMW. Similarly Hyundais from 2016 and 2017.
Don't go into comedy, those are shitty jokes.
Hey there, came from the same situation. I even went to Kettering (aka GMI) and have multiple friends who work for the big three. I bought a Tesla this year, I haven’t looked back. You won’t be disappointed, just prepare for ridicule from your family and friends. It’s worth it in the end if you’re happy. Just remember, Tesla is the company who improves safety of their cars with free software updates. GM tried to escape liability for a faulty spring in their ignition lock cylinder by saying that “Old GM” was truly responsible for multiple deaths.
It’s funny seeing Sandy predict gas will be 5 bucks a gallon in a year or two, ten months ago, then seeing it happened in 5 months after the fact. Much faster than even he thought it would happen.
"I'm going to try my best, not to swear, I can't promise anything." Man after my own heart.
You are a National Treasure Sandy! I wish there were people like you in charge of things.
As a Canadian, I'm very proud of this guy. He says it as it is!
America's economy would be booming if people like Sandy made decisions. Damn shame our leaders are bought and paid for by lobbyists.
@@outtarice As an American, I'm proud of him too.
As a non American, I'm proud of Sandy too
This is very good stuff and quite reasonable, if somewhat simplistic, at times. However, so much for Muskian, “reasoning from first principles, not analogy.” Chess v. checkers is pure analogy. Not that it is a bad thing, but it exposes the flaws in binary statements about reasoning. Sandy, I guess you should find more ways to reason from first principles.
Sandy you are a true patriot. From your little brother up north it hurts to see your country being divided and your government being ruled by OEM/OIL lobbyist. Yourself / EM and a few others see the the American tides reseeding and the Chinese tidal wave fast approaching and I truly believe once this happens people will forget when the Japanese took over the small car market back in the 70s. AMERICANS / PEOPLE WAKE UP>! outstanding work Sandy.!!!
Isn't sandy Canadian too?
@@chrisE815 I think he said Saskatoon.🇨🇦
@@aurelio-reymilaorcabal9669 Chatham Ontario.
Trained in Windsor Ontario, recruited to Detroit by Ford.
Sadly, the whitehouse is controlled by the woke mobs and Biden is not allowed to answer reporters’ questions
8:15 "When a paradigm shifts, success in the old paradigm will block your visions of the future". This is a powerful statement. Maybe it's just me but this seems to apply perfectly to politics as much as industry.
A True Demmingism!
The total debt chart is deceiving, it includes in-house financing.
The factor that inflates the Z score for TSLA is 1.6x(market value/total assets) = 1.6(1.1 Trillion/53 Billion) = 33
When you start with a faulty premise, you end with faulty conclusions...
Its ALL Done With Fluoride & Sulfate = Prozac FOOD IS The Drug
Thank you for this video Sandy - I worked at Tesla for 4 years, and as excited I am for Tesla to take over, I’m extremely concerned about the US and how the OEM’s lack urgency around moving to EVs will cost us millions of jobs. It’s extremely somber and your tone for this video was very appropriate. Crossing my fingers for a miracle but preparing for a very rocky decade.
Less than 3% of the adult full time working population are employed by the us automaking industry. 🤔
I think evs when you take into concert thing's like making batteries locally, motors/drive units,gearboxes inverters etc.
Will mean a similar amount of total automotive based jobs when the dust completely settles by around 2030.
The service&parts industry will definitely suffer though.
Especially suppliers of things like air filters, spark plugs, oil pumps,fuel pumps, oil filters, belts, hoses, timing chains,fuel injectors, catalytic converters, transmissions&filters etc. They will simply cease to exist, Bosch is a prime example of a former titan headed for the grave yard.
As none of those parts are needed for evs and no replacement parts either.
Your comments reminds me of horse people back during the advent of cars over a hundred years ago now. Just shows some things never change. We still have horses of course, except now those horses are for the well off and the cars are accessible for many people.
Prior to cars, the horses were for most everyone. But in 20 year's from the first capable cars. That was no longer the case. 🙂
@@4literv6 I don’t think you fully understand my comment.
@@farzyness so expound upon it further, Also why are you no longer with the ev leader?
Are you aligning more with diess who has publicly stated if they don't accelerate their ev transitioning speed it will cost them job's. 🤔
@@4literv6 if US automakers go out of business, it'll cause a cascading effect on the economy where multiple industries will be strained and folks in those industries will get laid off. If 3% gets laid off, then the upstream and downstream vendors and customers will be another 6-10%. That'll make 10%+ of the US economy out of work, which will cause them to spend less and the economy will grind to a halt. It's not just 3%. And the reason I'm not with Tesla anymore is because working there has made me financially secure, which is going to allow my wife and I to travel the world and pursue our passions, all thanks to Tesla.
@@farzyness meh lucid, rivian, Bollinger, atlis, tesla, lordstown with foxcons, and others me might not have even heard of, would just scale up further. Build out more new and efficient factories using more renewable energy&recycled parts making the cars even more sustainable long term.
Or they could also rehab existing cheap now defunct factories from the about to be dead oems right here and absorb most of those lost job's.
Again what you said reminds me of people who worked in the horse&carriage industries over 100+ year's ago.
Horses&carriages arent gone heck even metal workers and fariers exist still in some places. Just not used to transport people in mass anymore. 👍🏻
Oh and thank you for sharing about your tesla experience. I want to work for them quite badly. Have for year's now.
And the 2% labor figure included parts manufacturer's and dealerships. It might balloon more but it wouldn't be anything like what your numbers claimed.
Also you aren't taking into account the new incumbents either. Lots of battery factories going up now.
A lot of jobs coming for pure evs and battery cell construction, not currently on the books. Way to many variables but long term industry disruption always does that.
As a fellow 60+ from Melbourne Australia, thank you for being a beacon of reality. Love your work Stuart.
And as a 50+ also from Melbourne I think you are bang-on about the decline and clear bankruptcy of the majority of US and European automakers. Once markets get wind of the risk of China's big daddy pulling the plug on the western ICE makers access to their Chinese owned factories then their corporate bonds will be paying premiums they will never pay back and the decline will be rapid.
isn't it great for Australia to tie our fortunes to the US?
My face turned white when i started to realize just how bleak the situation is, i was always a tesla fan, but i never imagined that seeing the american oem's fail could bring america to the brink of national collapse... the world could lose the largest military peacekeeping force in existence and china could easily conquer the world, with a few outlying nations that might be able to resist long enough to make it a phyrric victory for china... i cant believe that in a decades time i and everyone else will be oppressed, censored, or silenced by china... god help us all.
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No doubting Sandy Munro's passion: evident in all his presentations, always interesting, gripping at times, great to have his contribution to the world! 😁👍🥇
Ford used to have a big banner hung in it’s engineering facility that simply said “70,000.” That was the design goal for miles to failure for every moving part. Then Toyota entered the marketplace and the banner came down. I wonder what anti-EV banner is hanging now and if Tesla will cause it to come down.
I am confused the Lightning and Mach-E are really great looking EVs. Tesla certainly motivated that. Isn't competition a good thing?
@@MrPhyrce Yes, it's generally a good thing for the consumer, but not necessarily for the companies themselves.
@@snowrocket companies come and go, that's the normal process as innovation and technology replace the buggy whips with remote controls. Whether society survives, let improves, is the question.
@@MrPhyrce The keyword there is "looking". Forget the specs or their emotional marketing and take a look at their actual sales ambitions and you'll see how much they don't want to sell them. Why? Because they think they can't afford to. And they're right. They're just several years too late to realize that it's not that they didn't have a chance to adapt, it's that they ignored it when they had it. They're screaming for subsidies and bailouts and I don't know how they'll manage. Best of luck to them and all of those who'll try to compete while carrying heavy investments into legacy production.
Ford is really behind BEV technology. They wouldn't put the Mustang or F-150 name at risk if they weren't.
"I get a little emotional"
"Try not to swear"
Yea. None of that please. Were here to watch sandy tear them a new one, not to be politically correct & get a gold star.
All jokes aside, phenomenal episode.
"...tear them a new one...", Animal Mother, Vietnam, Full-metal Jacket.
@@johnweiner "If God wanted you up there, he would have miracled your ass up by now, wouldn't he?"
I appreciate you are sticking your neck out here.
I'm a boomer approaching 67yr. Thanks for saying what's been on my mind a while. I get a lot of flack for pointing out reality since the alternate reality has been so well adopted. We are captive to the Structural Violence of an oppressive socioeconomic system & as captives we all suffer Stockholm syndrome protecting our captor out of fear (maintaining the status quo), because our livelihood & lives depend upon it. You called it a scotoma. That about covers it.
This sounds like it should actually mean something, but doesn't.
@@rickfanta4323 I guess understanding is in the mind of the beholder.
@@creatorgenerator1998 Or is fleeting, and isn't
How the hell is he sticking his neck out?
He is simply promoting a company that he has stocks in.
Sounds like you have a scotoma.
Prisoners dilemma
Thank you Sandy and the Munro Live team keeping it real and current. I leverage your research into actionable trends and ideas to help benefit folks I work with. God bless.
I believe that I saw the book "The Goal" on Sandy's bookshelf. Man, I love to see that! Sadly so few companies are truly using that knowledge.
I don't care
u should
The company I worked for in 1990s handed that book out to most of the worker on all levels. They pretty much ignored its teaching.
Sandy. You speak the truth.
I didn't see the VW group in your pie chart 😳😳
We like you, when you swear! Makes it authentic and the current situation calls for it.
#StopSilencingSandy 😂
But ... not the hard stuff!
Amen!!!
Dude is going senile...
Thank you for sharing this, Sandy. It takes true balls to be this honest in this day and age. Again, thank you!
Thank you . Your explanations and predictions are fairly well thought out and altogether presented as good PR for Tesla's future. There are however other feasible scenarios which could offer more competition for Tesla that are not considered. Car makers like GM , VW, Daimler, Japanese and Chinese car makers are not sleeping. They all remember the "annihilation of the big 3" as you stated it. Consequently, most of them are already begining to jump on the EV bandwagon. In addition, we have the challenge of producing enough electricity to charge all these cars. We are indeed in for an interesting time.
Munro has torn down and examined ALL of the other companies products. NONE of them are in the ballpark. The only ones who are catching up is BYD. And they have to get over the hump as a Chinese manufacturer to win approval. None of the other manufacturers are making money off of their EV's and will not be for quiet some time, due to a lack of volume. And secondly? 99% of all the businesses in history have failed to survive technology disruptions. Its never the incumbents that win.
Thanks Sandy. Would love to work for you but I’m 78. Was high tech running NASA’s worldwide sand box. First to automate GE engineering materials. Automated GE Aircraft Engines jet engine design. I’m good a coming up with new ideas even though I’m old as dirt. I’m pissed that we have no economical EV choices while Europe is in the process of getting flooded.
A life well spent. Thank you. :)
"no economical EV choices" - amen to that. Just look at the stuff that Fully Charged and Bjorn Nyland test drive. So much choice and at such an early stage in the EV transition. It's almost like something's preventing this from happening here in North America.
You sound like a very interesting person with tons of experience and knowledge. I'm Norwegian (but living in India right now) and in my city there are zero ev vehicles on the streets (Except for the electrical "rickshaws" that carry passangers). In Norway practically all new cars sold are EV's as Sandy also show in the video. Norway is a super rich country though so they can afford expensive toys.
@@larslover6559 In Norway Gasoline is $12/gal. Govt. incentives for EV are high.
Much respect sir!
As long as political parties are funded by outside interests they ARE beholden to those interests.
Business or union, it doesn't matter, it makes no difference.
Fund political parties from the public purse.
And call everything else CORRUPTION
THAT is the nuclear option for 'Merika ..and just common sense everywhere else 😂🤣
Governments only purpose in history has always been to control and appease the masses, while their value was forcibly extracted from them. Regardless of the social/economic/political system of their respective time periods. They have ALWAYS served those at the top of the economic ladders and always will. Its an illusion of freedom, within an invisible monetary jail cell.
How many parties do we fund? Equally? What if one person running has very different ideas - do we fund Nazi candidates the same as LBGTQ+ candidates? We should take the money out of what the politicians are managing that gets paid out. If government gives out less goodies, there is less incentive to buy their loyalty.
Brilliant. A man with vision and tells it in a way we can all understand. Wish I had met you 30 years ago. Thank you.
Professor Munro, you are the best. Straight to the point, no BS and all good knowledge. Please keep on making these informative videos. Thanks
This was such a perfectly executed performance by Sandy. Perfect and detailed analysis in an Oscar like video production. The scenes when Cory casually playing chess, while Sandy predicts end of OEM, had me dead.
Sandy truly brings some much needed legitimacy to the world's transition of sustainable energy.
and this is just the Automotive sector, not Superchargers, Megapack batteries, Powerwall, SOLAR, FSD Subscription, and Software as a Service.
@@HydrogenFuelTechnologies Hydrogen is dumb and will not be the future 😁
@@HydrogenFuelTechnologies Why do you feel you have to "shout" by writing in capitals. You'er only showing everyone how uncertain you are about what you say.
And to think he had quite the criticism of Tesla at first, If I remember right.
@@HydrogenFuelTechnologies Shut up and stop shouting!
Holy smokes. This was pretty deep on several levels. It’s really easy to see how much Mr. Munro cares.
@jrherita .. +1 .. An Authentic engineer at heart. . A class act Mr. Munro & Company..
I think you mean "manipulates" rather than "cares."
A direct link to The Electric Viking's video discussing the Altman Z-Score would have been useful. Especially in the notes... I've look through all of his videos, and I can not find a single one that is 12:30 long (so unless I'm blind [possible], or it's been removed - a direct link would be useful).
Jip cant find it either
I started clicking through Electric Viking's videos, hunting for him wearing the same shirt as shown in Sandy's video, but I couldn't find it either. He has hundreds of videos, so it's a losing battle unless Munro Live gives us a link.
This might be the link - ruclips.net/video/4E60S1EdJmU/видео.html
Agreed, I have been unable to find the specific video which Sandy shows at 5:23. The link shared (ruclips.net/channel/UCjzi56cxvmEDwjo1Bd2Yxpgvideos) goes to the channel and is certainly interesting. I'm now a fan of The Electric Viking. For future reference, Sandy starts a very interesting discussion at 20:45 about industry debt levels, and that is what the Altman Z-Score is all about. The chart at 21:55 is amazing! A very simple visual showing how different the positions are for the different players. Note - a good short video describing the Z-Score is available here => ruclips.net/video/zKR0IKWcHNw/видео.html
This video is so honest that it maybe used at a later time to educate people on the fall of the American auto industry.
No video required...We already know American car's SUCK! The last competitive American car was the Saturn; Sadly, even they fell prey to the "destroyer's"...
@@brentfarvors192 The last competitive American car was the Tesla.
@@jansix4287 Not really. Until you can boast that your models achieve 300,000 miles + before having major mechanical issues, you're NOT a successful brand...Tesla doesn't even sell after market parts; Once your warranty is up, you are Fk'd! Battery dies out of warranty? "That will be $30,000 please...!"
@@brentfarvors192 I’m not buying an EV anytime soon. 🤷
@@jansix4287 Good decision (for now)...
"Stolen Valor" Thanks for that !
As a Vet and an EE who lost my patents to MBA types, I took an early retirement (no pension, just investments) years ago and keep my I.P. to myself now.
Making millions for billionaires is just too redundant to be worth while
Through Continuous Process Improvement, pFMEA, and consistent Statistical Process Control, my global portfolio is now running lean and profitable, Thank you
The share of BEV in Germany in October 2021 is not 30% but 17,1%. Which is huge anyway. Sandy seems to have confused it with the growth of new registrations of BEV YoY in Germany, which is 32% higher.
Thanks Sandy this was informative spot on. We in the et have been sitting on or laurels too much for too long. Merry Christmas & keep pumping out the videos.
Showing up at a football game dressed to play baseball. 😂 Yup, that sums up the OEMs' approach to this shift. Great video, Munro team.
They keep bringing a knife to a gun fight!
I read a book called give me a break by John Stossel. I would read a chapter and get so upset I would have to put the book down and go cool off before I would pick it up and read the next chapter. This video was a little upsetting but contained so much information its going to take me a while to think through it all. Thanks for having the courage to say what needs to be said.
Thanks so much Sandy for sharing your really down to earth (and scarey as hell) predictions. Unfortunately I too believe that unless lots of us pull our fingers out, that will be the prognosis.
This was excellent. So many dynamics in play and to ponder. The remaining market potential is huge for first time buyers in China. In North America and Europe it is about fleet replacement, a longer journey. And spot on about mental scotoma will bring market failure in companies trying save what they have vs look at what they need to do. The famous last words of many an executive has been "how did that happen?"
Thank you for this. I appreciate that you didn't go down the "most americans will never buy an electric car or Chinese car and just laid it out there. Better cars will be built by others and as much as americans love to say they "never would" , but they always do. One thing to consider with american manufacturers are also "victims" of having to live almost exclusively with americans. While much of the world welcomes this change, we resist it, we even penalize those who try and move fast. Our attitude will last until the minute it doesn't, and at that point manufacturers will be stuck with products that nobody wants while people blame them for not providing the products they have said they wanted all along. Tesla wins at the moment because they really don't care what americans want, they have a vision for what they need to build. Other manufacturers may have a vision, but not the wherewithal to go into "the valley" in a strong enough position to deliver out the other side....
You're all killing it. We need this more than you know. Its incredibly important to hear this from Sandy and will go down in history.
No he won't go into history. Kids from today don't even know who David Bowie or George Michael was, while they're still a bit warm.
The US used to be the great innovator up till the 1970s, then it went downhill. Japan and Europe took over. Only innovative industry in the US left, was the weapons industry. Why? TAXES! Income taxes % got lower and the rich more and more sidestepped taxes. Some paying $0. No money, no innovation. Ask Sandy. The weapons industry were the only ones being funded enough to keep the momentum going. Pure capitalism was the way to go for the last century or so, but the power of the US is in competition and cooperation and 1: you forgot the cooperative part. And 2: when you were on top, you sat on your innovative butts. If you stop pedaling, you'll get overtaken. Add protectionism (Trump) and you will fall into the abyss. And it's even worse, cause with innovation come robots and AI's. With those comes job-loss. Robots will get better to the point human workforce is obsolete. This will (and has already) hit production jobs, administrative jobs, management and even designer jobs. There will be no work for at least a major part of the population. With today's US works ethics of 'working for your money' and social security (good as none), combined with their aversion against everything that even reeks of sharing wealth, half the country will starve. How's that for a revolutionary army? Maybe Elon Musk can be begged to deport them to Mars by that time? As the English did with the first Americans-to-be? And then after a few decades Mars will declare independency? History repeats itself?
A big part of the US population has grown afraid of the future, instead of embracing it. Hiding in their communities, armed to the teeth, crying over times long gone, not understanding that they need to recreate such times of plenty by rushing ahead and not by trying to keep things as they were. Cause, they were! Past tense, never coming back.
In 1976 while working at Chevron research, we had the production manger for GM gives a talk about the future of automobiles. I asked him why GM didn’t have any fuel efficient cars in the line up because of the oil embargo. He said there is no future in small fuel efficient cars, and asked if I would buy one. I said yes. Afterwards my boss asked why I asked such a dumb question. He said people will always want a big V-8, no one cares about saving fuel.
Europe raised gas taxes to reduce future vulnerabilities to oil prices. We also have smaller roads so small efficient vehicles always did well.
Hello Sandy, love your videos as always, even this repeat viewing at 11 months old, haha. How about you're doing yearly updates on Your Move OEMs? As many suspect, a good number of those OEMs' scotosis won't allow their making the right moves in time falling further behind slipping toward the event horizon of oblivion.
Sandy, I can only imagine the professional pressure you might be under from clients and/or OEM folks. You are the sunshine in dark places and the guy carrying the canary in the coal mine.
My family was fully GM subsidized back in the day. My dad was a lifetime company man. It's sad to see how the US car industry has fallen down on the job.
Please keep it up.
There's plenty of business coming their way.
The Canary is dead.
Don't forget that Tesla is part of the US car industry and it is leading the way for the rest of the world. So we don't need to feel sorry for our nation, just for the dinosaur OEM's who will be down and out in the next 10 years.
In case you didn't notice, Munro have a lot of clients in China now. He also mentioned that only the Chinese purchased his Tesla reverse engineering reports.
"The Hummer didn't sell at all" That's probably why GM wants to run with that. "Look, nobody wants EV's!"
Sofar their prices are absolutely nuts, range is a joke and you better look at maint costs closely. Find out what happens when you get a $inple flat tire
ruclips.net/video/Pm8wLjpHbnk/видео.html
The Real Meaning of Elon's Tweet Decoded.
Thanks Sandy. Truly great video, all the more so for the truly genuine delivery. Most of the Big Auto makers are dead men walking… they just don’t see it coming and the majority of the rest are struggling with systems that are inhibiting change. The Times They Are A-Changin'… someone wrote… Thank you Sandy, I hope someone who matters listens… but they won’t!
Thanks for a great presentation and for sharing your wisdom and insight. It is refreshing to hear an engineering rooted analysis and forecast, rather than marketing hype and talk without walk
Gotta love Sandy with his "no malarkey" approach. Hits like sandpaper. Thank you for making such an insightful channel!
Shotgun blast to scoffers!
Sandy “I’ve been asked to stay away from certain topics.”
Also Sandy “I predicted 9/11 even tho i sounded like a racist.”
🤣
Our love for Sandy is unconditional.
since it already happened, would've been nice if he expounded on that claim. lol
@@tenzinpassang4812 I'm sure Sandy knows a controlled demolition when he sees one, which points the finger not at a man in a cave but at a man in a house painted white 👀
@@RAFchurchlawford4469 can you please repost this in the comments, totally agree
Sandy,
Love to watch your honest and experienced analysis. I personally have been seeing the US auto industry in the same direction. The modern China is no longer the China that once existed during the Mao era; though some bad practices will still linger on for a while, the new generation of Chinese thinking certainly will catch many countries by surprise.
I'm looking forward to electric assist velocycles taking off. It will only really happen when the bigger vehicles get off the road or in cities when air quality gets bad but they are the most efficient vehicles ever.
The chinese aristocracy does not play chess, they play Go. A game that is exponentially more difficult and requires you to think many moves in advance.
They don't play go, chess or checkers. This is just idiots saying who's mind stops at their backyard fence.. They write their plans open to the public. It is called 5 year plans. Or China 2025. No mystic, no hidden tactics, blatantly open. They play pure American football. Front checking. Putting the the money on the line and let people run with the ball towards it.
@@larsradtke4097 They publish the five year plan, but they operate on a 100 years plan. If you do not have the vision of what the future can look like? You do not have the power to create it.
@@davefroman4700 hey that 70 year plan is also public to the open.
ruclips.net/video/TgpQxVCekgw/видео.html
This a reason to China success
@@WANDERER0070 oh suddenly people start to realize it is all open to the public, China basically screaming out what they are doing, but nobody listening: because China. It not in the white list media cartel.
I’m in management in the forklift industry. Yesterday I was standing in a pool of engine coolant and oil watching a rebuilt engine pump coolant out of the #2 spark plug hole. Today a customer put gasoline in a tier-4 diesel. The maintenance, repairs and filth of IC sucks. They have outlived their usefulness. It’s time for them to fade away and maybe occupy a few niches here and there at most.
Spot on! This is a comment from Europe, from a guy working in the automotive industry. And, I'm afraid, it could be worse for us. Much.
I use to work for FCA (now Stellantis) in Auburn hills MI and I was shocked by the complete lack of engineering in EV vehicle architectures. I talked to many of the MBA grad managers and, as Sandy has stated, they just didn't see the shift in consumer interest coming. I left FCA for this reason!
Came here for some entertainment and education. Let's have at it Sandy!
The logic in this video is incredibly easy to follow and sensical. I don’t doubt Elon has played chess from the get-go and continues to.
4D
Elon is playing Go. He gave up chess long ago
More of a case of here is some maths showing Tesla has money in shares but not in actual real money.
@@zagan1 true but also if Tesla were to liquidate they would then have real money equivalent to (+/- a few billions) the money in shares and hence still being the dominant auto manufacturer in market cap. In addition, If we were to compare debt, Tesla would come out a clear strength in that category.
Tesla is getting to the point that they are generating cash faster then they can spend it and their war chest keeps getting bigger. All while building 3 of the world's largest car plants and doing insane amount of R&D
I appreciate your wisdom Sandy. I’m thankful for Tesla and look forward to my Cybertruck. Looking at switching to a truck now but the cybertruck isn’t available yet… not sure how long I can wait…I’d get a model Y but a truck is more what I’m looking for…
This is excellent information. I hope the people who run things will act on it before it's too late.
That thumbnail deserves a lot more than the 1 thumbs up I can give. Very well put Sandy.
Thanks Sandy, Im sure the people that could benefit the most from your analysis are absolutely blind to it. Le sigh.
Anyway I feel privileged to be a subscriber to this channel.. I hope you all have a great thanksgiving. Thanks
Outstanding presentation. Most of the Build Back Better EV credit is about subsidizing the OEM's and constitutes padding the pockets of their managers before the implosion and they "run to Bermuda". We need to fund battery research; the JPL and NASA can get us there; but not private industry.
True, except that there are several US companies working on batteries. Yes, the federal labs need funds for R&D, but the private sector has a role to play as well.
You seem to be forgetting the research done on batteries & battery packs by Tesla, Rivian, Lucid & others.
@@TraditionalAnglican no I am not but there are many new and innovative battery innovations occurring throughout the world but without research funding there is the potential to miss out on tremendous gains. For profit organizations tend to focus on where they have spent their money. Funding to JPL for example does not have the same constraints and the finding would then be available to the market.
@@donzimmerman5829 - But JPL has constraints too & NASA has to deal with Congressional oversight (usually with a lot of pork barrel politics). Remember Solyndra? The government’s track record isn’t so good in this area, and most of the battery tech being developed in Colleges & Universities is either not mass producible or would take 5-8 years of further engineering & production prototyping to come up with mass producible batteries.
@@TraditionalAnglican Solyndra was a single investment that didn’t work out in a portfolio that posted an overall gain and a strong one too, although I don’t remember the exact number. Plenty of people thought Tesla would turn out to be a bad investment too. Right-wing media conveniently never mentions the portfolio’s overall gain, they manipulate their audience by cherry picking the bad investments instead. How convenient. I wish the Dems were better at marketing their successes.
yet another perfect intro to this. love your work. Thanks you so much!
Listening here from the UK it makes absolute sense; we had a massive motor industry here - once... thank you, very thought provoking.
Ironic, that the major brands from England are now owned by germans, except for Jaguar, and it was an english dude who saved VW after WW2, rebuilt the Wolfsburg factory, which the world's largest since it was first built...
This was some real talk here. The analogies and metaphors were spot on. I've been yelling this all over youtube on the pages of the various content providers I follow. While Tesla is an unmovable force at the moment it isn't stopping Chinese companies from expanding intocad many markets that will have them.
I'm not singing doom and gloom. It just is what it is. Companies like Ford and GM seem to live in a bubble when they talk about being the biggest EV maker in the world bit they have no clue.
They need tocget on a plane and go to China. Go to various countries in Europe, Australia and New Zealand and they will see that they have very little to no influence in these countries.
Showing up to the LA Auro Show with no EVs after while the president is blowing smoke up your bum about how you're the leader is some serious cognitive dissonance and it's no wonder why these big boys are in so much debt. Their hubris with be their demise if they don't pivot.
Only way to stop China, is to stop buying their products, but the problem is that almost all electronics come from China.
I spent some time working with VW in Wolfsburg. Having only worked in small companies, seeing the way they squander money sickened me. With rising costs, businesses simply cant continue to operate the way they did in the 80s and expect to be profitable. So yes, i agree with your assessment. These OEMs will have to adapt FAST or die, and I dont think they will be able to.
Great points to consider! There is some point on a scale when the tipping point is reached & this leads to the end of any possible smooth transition from ICE to BEV..... The future of Southeast Michigan is in the balance.
I don't mind the off-the-cuff episodes, seems more genuine. If we let the OEM automakers fail the first time around then we would already be through it and onto something better. 🤷♂️🤦♂️
Exactly, GM should not even be in the equation.
Obama saved GM and Chrysler. How is that wiring out? Remember solendra?
I am an MBA, and I know from experience that Elon is 100 % correct about my kind :)
You speak with much wisdom Sandy. I'd be pretty sure the Chinese automaker leaders are studying this presentation in detail, taking careful notes. Unfortunately, I'd also expect our legacy auto execs are trying hard to ignore it - just to make it to their golden parachute. btw. Did I imagine it or did POTUS call Mary Barra "Bary"; "Where are you Bary? Oh, there you are."
Hello Sandy, just came across your you tube channel, im based in the UK and Eu ,currently work for Tier 1 OEM, incharge of Quality APQP, we are moving rapidly into electronics supporting some EV programs, love your insight into the EV development , i am very impressed with your knowledge and insight into this growing industry what i have seen so far is very well presented , i may be in touch for some general advice
thanks and keep up the good work, regards tony
Love that you promoted the Altmann Z-score! As an engineer and biz grad, this is the best of both worlds, and to us retail investors, one of best tools on the workbench. Best to all of you!
The OEM’s that want to be in business in the next 5-10 years will listen to this and adapt.
I suggest everyone shorts the OEM’s that don’t. It’ll be a bloody few years of change.
Thank you Sandy! Your insights are accurate and alarming. “Alarming” is the word the big 5 should be reacting to. GM, Ford, Toyota, etc… ever heard of the “boiling frog analogy”, guess who’s the frog?
I really admire your honestly & sharing this important info.
Sandy, you are the voice of automotive reason. Thanks for your input. Greetings from Canada! :)
really love how you engaged with youtube during the pandemic. This stuff is just great!
I hope other experts of other fields follow your path. Its a great way to sell your knowledge while its still free for the public. gotta love the time we live in.
A lot of respect and pride for having honest, hardworking and simple people like you! Congratulations and a lot of health!
Rio Verde - GO Brazil
Thanks for the shout out Sandy, glad you found my reaction/photoshopping worthy of sharing. I'm completely gobsmacked by the arrogance of Barra and her ever growing lies. Stolen valor is a very good comparison for what she is doing. Your overall assessment on the OEMs is excellent, I agree wholeheartedly & I am positioned accordingly.
Waiting for that Imperium Skywell Teardown!!! This is going to be Epic!
Skywell is unknown car brand in china, let's see what they have
Sandy, you are about my age GM needs to drive past the Packard plant, go back to Flint and look at the hole, or Industrial avenue. Chevy plant that was the hole is gone, Buick is gone, Ternstead or Fisher Body gone. The UAW is corrupt and this president continues to disrespect Tesla Motors as if Tesla was Tucker Motor Company. Your prognostications are very interesting and I need another cup of coffee tomorrow to digest your slides.
Thank you for an interesting subject. Happy Thanksgiving.
Thank you. I need to watch this again. I got the overview and need to study the detail. Try to see what it means to me.
19:26 - "Hey boss! Put my Queen back on the right spot!"
He actually put it back one spot to the right. And the guy playing immediately put it where it was originally 😊
Another insightful video from Sandy. Thank you! I truly hope the US takes this seriously. For me the additional big appeals to Tesla are their direct to consumer model and software first approach.
That feeling when someone presents a lot of numbers and claims that intrigue you, then happen to talk about things you know very well, and it is, at best, extremely skewed.
Enjoyed the monologue - a lot of change happens by natural attrition and it looks like ICE auto is not immune. I think Corey was a bit upset that you wrecked his game - but a great metaphor for the game being played by the dinosaurs.
Nice positive and inspiring video, if your info is on twitter or RUclips as long as it's available, this is important and on as many platforms as possible, greater the audience the better.
Sandy sounds so nervous today. Don’t worry we support you!
How?
It was definitely hard for him to not swear and be emotional about how stupid the US government is being.
Sandy, your business will be hearing from mine soon. You have my deepest respect for standing up and taking this risk, you've done the right thing.
God bless you, brother. Common sense still lives with you. Sometimes degrees are just paper. I've experienced brilliant intellects who suffered from a lack of common sense. Life's experiences and lessons are more important than theories and suppositions.
Very well said Sandy!! Sad enough as the truth usually is!!! Love your videos, insight and knowledge.
Sandy, THAT was well done. I appreciate you putting that together to share with us. You've established your credibility with "the masses" thru this channel and kindly doing so many interviews. So even when you present uncomfortable info like this, it's credible and deserves our attention & consideration. You have mine...
Think I’ve got my last ICE vehicle. especially after a huge bill to replace a cam chain tensioner.
We've had our first EV 2.5 years now. At its first service six months ago they changed the cabin air filter and inspected the brakes and tyres. That was it. Next service is due in April '23.
@@johnrussell5245 currently we have a need to occasionally tow a horse in a trailer. It’s tempting to get a dedicated vehicle just for that and an EV for everything else. Especially as diesel is now about £1.50 a litre in the uk.
Very good information. Thanks for putting this together. Excellent work as always.
I got a question thought, what if any of the big 3 make a good ICE vehicle for about $16k to directly compete with electric vehicles?
Wouldn’t it comes down to price?
And yes, I’m not factoring maintenance into this… just initial cost
Thought provoking. Identified some of the trends affecting worldwide manufacturing and a number of fears.
Reminds me of the disjoint 70s.
Sandy, I would go one step further than the chess/checkers comparison. The Chinese are playing the ancient game of Go (Weiqi, Weichi) and it is played there from childhood and is like nothing we play in the West. Deep Mind's AlphaGo finally beat the game of Go Grand Master as the ultimate test of Artificial Intelligence after first beating the world's best chess champion. Tesla is the only company that can understand what they are up against and compete. VW is just waking up while all the other OEM's are sleep walking.
The Chinese are really playing "Go", the West just don't understand the depth of this game. ONLY superior AI like Tesla's Dojo is equipped to match the Chinese strategy. American Legacy Autos are in in a quagmire right now suffering the Innovators Dilemma . By the time they wake up to smell the coffee, it might be too late for them...
False. Oems doesnt even know the rulez of Go thus they wouldnt be able to play it
Yep, Herbert Diess is the only one at VW that understands whats going on, and VW‘s board of directors is going to ditch Diess for telling the truth. Sad.
Go is about capturing the board, China knows the game and they are going to capture the market for EVs
I was invited to BMW plant in Dresden couple years ago. The guy in charge EV (i3/i8 made there) arrogantly laughed at Tesla, laughed at their products. We (BMW customers invited to tour the plant) could not believe it. We knew back then that BMW had years to go to catch up with Tesla. BMW makes nicer Interieurs - OK - but when it comes to software, infrastructure, EV customers sentiment, image… Tesla is years ahead . Thats when I knew its over for BMW. You dont publicly underestimate your opponent and survive.
Very Best of your very best of all time! One factor missing from the graphs is that when the debt load exceeds a certain point, the company goes away suddenly. So, the 50-50 might occur quite suddenly, and possibly ahead of your schedule. (maybe in 2023?)
I think I saw Sandy blow his top clean off. But it was about 1 minute after the video ended so most of us didn’t see it. Great job Sandy and thank you for doing that video. You really care about the US and our future. This video needs to get out there.
“Who Cast The Biggest Shadow” chart sometimes just referred to as the “Shadow Diagram” Merch! munro-live-store.creator-spring.com/listing/history-of-lean-design