The New Space Race, SpaceX & Starship - Satellite constellations & Launcher Evolution
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- Опубликовано: 23 июл 2024
- For both military and civilian applications, launching satellites into orbit has long been both useful and incredibly expensive. But over the last decade, the costs to put payload into orbit have shrunk dramatically, driven by launchers like the SpaceX Falcon 9 & Falcon Heavy while the number of satellites in orbit has exploded.
And now, with tests proceeding with the two-stage Starship super-heavy, it may be that even cheaper access to space is on the horizon.
In this episode we explore why demand for orbital assets is increasing, how the US retook top spot in the Space Race, and what systems like Starship might mean for the future if they perform as advertised.
Patreon:
/ perunau
Caveats, Comments and Corrections:
All normal caveats and disclaimers apply
In particular - I note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions, judgements or evaluations.
For notes on costs and launch estimates - see notes further below.
Also see notes in description regarding nomenclature.
Readings and Sources:
RUSI - Jamming JDAM
www.rusi.org/explore-our-rese...
VICTUS NOX
www.ssc.spaceforce.mil/Newsro...
Q1 upmass by launch provider image from - x.com/BryceSpaceTech?ref_src=...
Space X smallsat rideshare program
www.spacex.com/rideshare/
PayloadResearch - The Starship Report
payloadspace.com/starship-rep...
Futron - -Space Transportation Costs: Trends in Price Per Pound to Orbit 1990-2000 (used as baseline for costs for older systems)
www.yumpu.com/en/document/rea...
U.S. Army on next-gen satcom
www.army.mil/article/249066/a...
USAF - The U.S. Air Force Transformation Flight Plan (2003)
apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA4...
DARPA contracting for DRIFT
breakingdefense.com/2023/05/d...
SpaceX launches NRO payloads
www.reuters.com/technology/sp...
SpaceX 2023 launches at a glance image
spaceexplored.com/2023/12/29/...
www.reuters.com/technology/sp...
Included video of the Singapore Satellite Industry Forum 2013
x.com/StormSurgeMedia/status/...
Reporting on PRC sat goals
www.defenseone.com/technology...
Satellite imagery for Ukraine
breakingdefense.com/2022/08/i...
The Space Industry After the Russo-Ukrainian War
warontherocks.com/2022/06/san...
Space X losing 40 sats
www.theguardian.com/science/2...
Ariane 6
phys.org/news/2024-06-europe-...
OneWeb taking the hit for cancelled Soyuz launch
spacenews.com/oneweb-takes-22...
BBC on India moon mission
www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-i...
Note on launch mass and cost per payload estimates.
Calculating the 'cost/price per KG' of a system can be difficult. Different launches involve different margins and additional (e.g. safety or national security) demand driven costs.
The manner in which project and related costs are rolled into launch costs or prices is also inconsistent across sources.
For this video, values should be treated as indicative and are generally based on a compilation of publicly available prices and launch data compiled by Jakub Janovsky (@Rebel44CZ) - out of necessity, some assumptions have been required (e.g. including estimating payload mass).
Unless otherwise noted, costs are based on prices for commercial launches.
Timestamps:
00:00:00 - Opening Words
00:01:21 - What Am I Talking About?
00:02:04 - Space Driven Advantage
00:07:10 - The Constellation Revolution
00:14:53 - The Constellation Escalation
00:19:01 - Capacity As The Commodity
00:23:29 - National Launch Programs: Russia
00:32:44 - Let's Talk USA
00:35:19 - SpaceX Path To Dominance
00:49:05 - Starship And Its Implications
00:55:57 - Other Players?
00:59:51 - The Way Forward
![Sean Rii, Karyon, Sharzkii - Taungule [My Love] (Official Music Video)](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/eJoMuypbSzQ/mqdefault.jpg)
I've been sitting on episode 2 in the space series for a while, but with the recent spate of tests and firsts I thought now was the time to go ahead with this one (ep 1 on ASAT here: ruclips.net/video/-xl0C6K2Nug/видео.html).
A few notes on this one beyond the obvious caveats, and they relate to questions of development and 'failing fast'
- Fast or affordable development for something is always going to be a relative statement. It's entirely possible for a project to be behind its stated goals and yet ahead of the rest of the industry - I think some of the systems in this video might fit squarely in that category
- Failing fast is also relative - and it's important to draw the distinction between wasteful and efficient when it comes to taking testing risks
- Rockets are a capital intensive, risky business - and trends can flip quickly (as the data presented shows on some of the major players out there), so keep in mind the level of uncertainty here
- No, none of this is financial advice
Perhaps I'm desensitised somewhat from working with projects for military equipment (which, you might say have the occasional tendency to experience delays, cancellations and failures) and consequently took those risks as given in this episode. They shouldn't be forgotten. Starship, Long March 9 and other future projects are not a reality until they work - so keep in mind both the implications of success and possibility of failure.
I also want to note I do sometimes use the term Starship interchangeably to mean either the second stage or combined first and second stage of the Starship + super heavy combo.
Thank you all for watching this slightly different episode, and we'll be back to the world of dedicated defence and defence economics matters next week.
Hi Perun, I guess SpaceX is Star Wars and Blue origin is Star Trek.
Are you going to drone on about this topic as well? 😁
I think SX stumbled into satellites only by chance. The goal was and is to give humanity a 2nd leg on Mars and somehow other companies wanting cargo capacity into LEO/etc buying flights would pay for the dev to get ships for and to Mars. And then One Web appeared and Elon must have done a quick calc and figured that he can beat them to their goal (creating a smallish constellation) and creating the income stream that will finance Mars.
So when will we get some data on launching battleships to Jupiter??? 😢
SpaceX … AHAHAHAHHAHA.
What a joke. All lies - no way to project them because they lie all the time.
Starship will NEVER deliver on those lies.
PowerPoints IN SPAAAAAACE
Heyooooooo
🐽🐷in🚀
Space Shuttle Columbia PTSD kicked in for that one...
I believe this to be Deep Dish Nine.
now all we need is some "lines on maps, in spaaaace". im not quite sure on how that works yet but i, believe.
"The amount of mass they have lifted into orbit has rocketed up." This man has no shame.
We love him for it.
The lord farquad joke didn't tip you off??
I laughed so hard when putin threatened to shoot down Starlink satelites and Elon just said: You are welcome to, we can put them up cheaper and faster then you can shoot them down, so go ahead, waste your rockets.
And it's even funnier that in the grander scheme of things, your typical Starlink satellite is only intended to be up there for five years before it's deorbited to be replaced with a newer, better satellite. Russia shooting them down would just accelerate that timetable by a few years, but we'll eventually be at the point where the entire Starlink constellation as it is now will have been deorbited and replaced with the larger, far more capable Starlink v2 satellites yeeted out of Starship's pez dispenser, and the cost of replacing those will be even cheaper than it is now.
bro called it Skylink
Skylink is an off brand…the Chinese knockoff
@@dziban303 but he mentioned Putin and Elon Musk so you probably know what he meant 🤡
@@dziban303 Edited. Thanks. I even googled it and it said it was correct, lol. Seems i wasn't the only one to get it wrong.
What can space do for you?
(Tungsten rods intensify)
RIP Covert Cabal… I’m dying. Poor guys. Money spent is money spent 😂
Ask not what space can do for you, but what you can do for space.
@@elijahsnow3119I can fill up space a little, I’m eating some beans.
So you have a super expensive system in space that even North Korea can take down? Great😂
RODS FFROM GOD MENTIONED!!!
Reverse Gell-Mann Amnesia: when you finally hear the broadcaster talking about something you know about, it's actually very impressive.
Yeah, it's nice to go through this multiple times with the same person, I was originally following Perun for his Dominions content before he started posting about defense economics, I remember holding my breath as I clicked play on his first Ukraine video fully expecting to have to unsubscribe from yet another entertainment content creator for subjecting me to a moronic take on geopolitical matters they didn't even begin to understand, but then being pleasantly surprised.
So much this
Fellow Angela Collier enjoyer?
I am a PhD candidate in Economics and when I first saw one of Perun's defense economics videos recommended to me by the algorithm in 2022 I realized quickly this guy understood economics. Then I showed my dad, who is a physician, his video about combat medicine in Ukraine and he said that it was spot on. Now I see him talking about SpaceX and once again, completely on the ball. This channel is special.
@@maxsilva11 Kind of love her ... in limited doses.
Someone's been playing too much Terra Invicta.
Not on the Perun gaming channel he hasn’t 😂😅
No such thing as to much Terra Invicta
No such thing. And Elon Musk CERTAINLY ISN’T Soren Van Wicke. Certainly. >_>
Great series you have started here.
He's training.
I worked at 12 hour shift and got off at 6 and have to be back there at 6. this is the entire reason I'm still awake
I'm hearing you. Finished a shift at 2200hrs and have to get up at 0545 hrs for a 0700 hr shift.
You fools! Save this episode for when you're at work and need the good noise
In which country and profession is it legal to work 12 hours?
@@nils9853 I have a snaking suspicion it's healthcare esp since it's the weekend. That or finance. Or multiple jobs.
@@nils9853 US, Automotive manufacturing. For me, at least I have the same exact schedule as OP (6-6). Its 3 days on 4 days off, then 4 on 3 off.
Usually when I see analysts from sectors outside space try to analyze the space sector they get a lot wrong - but not this time.
Perun has pretty much nailed it perfectly from describing the cost reductions in accessing space to their implications and even explaining why sovereign autonomy will mean many different countries and companies will continue to increase their involvement.
Great work Perun!
i think he is a bit too uncritical when quoting spaceX figures but yeah he isn't necessarily following that field closely.
@@namenloss730 Which figures are you referencing? The weight figures? The prices that are public?
I think the opposite, he has not nearly shown the game changer that is starshield. It allows to do the whole ISTAR, targeting, guidance and BDA loop for all air and navel targets and arguably even land targets. And do it 24/7 in real time with no real horizon.
@@namenloss730 agreed, healthy dose of skepticism is absolutely necessary when looking at prelim figures for _anything_ but *especially* products from you-know-who
@@leonfa259 the weight is speculative
the price considers profitability or short term market capture
@@dziban303 don't name him or his fanboys might attack us.
never mention that he exagerates a little bit
Space launch times need to be reduced to point demonstrated in 1977 where passengers hire the ship & crew in a bar. While they are strapping in, the copilot fires up the ship while the pilot is shooting at the bad guys. Pilot hops aboard, hatch closes, and spacecraft launches. None of this T-24 hours stuff.
To a degree, that's never going to happen. Fueling and systems checks simply take too long, it's a commercial plane's checklist X100, and there's not much room to winnow that down with chemical rockets. What can really help first and foremost is reliability. A major reason for the countdowns is so that anyone downrange can be notified or cleared in case the rocket goes boom and debris rains down. Launch 10,000 rockets without issue, and maybe that can be forgone.
That's fine, as long as you can avoid Imperial entanglements.
To be fair, they had to hurry
because the pilot shot a debt collector in the bar.
I agree that so long as we are still using external-combustion engines it will be difficult to accomplish.
@@psikogeek he should've gotten an award for doing so
great seeing this after the insane week in spaceflight that was this last week. Chinese lunar regolith recovery, Boeing Starliner, and Starship flight test 4 with the little flap that could. Awesome to get a Perun video on the now fast paced growth of the spaceflight market.
*The little flap that did.
@@piranha031091 Flaps*
Guarantee all four went through the same.
It's a tragedy when an analyst you rely on for good data and interpretation covers a field you happen to know a lot about, and you realise that they don't actually have a clue what they're talking about. THIS WAS NOT THAT TIME. :D
I know, right? Always got the sense Perun was telling it like it was... this confirms the hunch. Amazing.
Agreed. This gives me even more confidence about the veracity of the things Perun presents that I don't have any special knowledge of.
YES
lol u almost had me. Very good
Aaarrgghhh... Had me in the first half...
While the "new space" procurement method of "get payload to ISS" is an important factor, I also don't think one can overstate the importance of workforce competence and dedication, giving the best and brightest minds an inspirational goal and an environment free of bs and red tape. I've talked to so many SpaceXers who basically said something along the lines of "I worked for ten years at and we never launched anything, here I was designing parts that went into orbit in my first month. I will never go work anywhere else."
There's a real moral value in actually seeing your work being used. I can see definitely see people sticking to a company that actually works.
Do they also say the want to work for an actual engineer like Elon, or is that not a relevant factor?
@@7secularsermons Elon Musk was involved in the _design_ (style, requirements etc ...) of the Model S not at all in the engineering. *Please stop calling him an engineer.* He has never worked as an engineer and has no engineering skills or experience. *He* called himself an engineer (alot) and a founder of Tesla (he wasn't) while he was a promoter, fund raiser and manager.
Please learn about him _outside of his own (self) promotional materials_
@@7secularsermons I think that at this point Elon, personally, can be a factor in either direction. The culture he built, though, of constant iteration and real testing in order to enable rapid improvement, is what counts IMHO.
@@squireson he is an engineer many former and current spacex and tesla engineers attest to it, that you have a problem with his politics and want to discredit him for that is irrelevant.
People say to watch Perun at 0.75 speed to absorb the material better. I just tried that and I swear it sounds like he's talking to me like I'm an idiot.
"Thiiiis is hoow weee dooo waaaar, okay Billy?" 😂
However... I feel like an idiot and need to be talked to that way sometimes. So yeh that's sounding like a solid plan.
@@JosephKano Use custom 0.85 or 0.9. Much more natural haha. Cheers
I just pause regularly to take a minute to process things.
Starship’s idea of “when in doubt use more -dakka- propellant”, means that it’s almost enough payload to carry as much as perun carries the whole defense and technology education sector of the internet.
Kerbal Space Program + competent engineers = SpaceX
I wish I could respond with there never enough propellant. Unfortunately the tyrany of rocket equation prevents me.
@@TheFirebird123456 Just change the propellant to increase it. When it doubt use Nukes as the propellant!
Kerbal space program + competent engineers = ULA.
@@zibbitybibbitybop + a good leader.....
As a SpaceX and Perun fan, I can confidently call this one of the crossovers of all time
Thought the same! What's next, a Perun- SMOSH crossover? 😂
I am a Falcon fan. Such a great rocket.
I have my doubts with Starship though. I don't think it was a good idea.
@@Youbetternowatchthis Never bet against Elon! All who did lost big... REAL big!
@@st-ex8506 Solar Rooftiles, Tesla Semi, Tesla Roadster, Autonomous Driving comming next year every year. We can do it now, I promise. Tesla Bot, Neuralink we can do it now. I don't know. I'll aknowledge when the companies he invested in succeed but I'll doubt his promises without concern.
Starship did succeed in it's last flight, but I don't want to know how much the previous three failed attempts cost them. I mean they failed to open a door the flight before, and They seem to be nearly out of fuel when reaching orbit while empty. Maybe they didn't completely fill the tanks but still, I'll believe it when I see it.
@@st-ex8506Elon is a very very hated man
"I didn't hear no bell." - Starship 29
I was watching those reentry paddles cook through my Starlink terminal. It makes me wonder how many Starlink connections carried that video to my TV.
@@jeffcooper7258 If we're including Starlink ISL and the nearest ground stations for the Indian Ocean being in western Australia, probably five to six ISL links between Starship and a ground station (if the ISL linkage is dependent on orbital planes and the orbital plane used instead aligns with ground stations in Japan, then 7-8 ISL links), terrestrial internet linkage to SpaceX's video streaming setup, terrestrial internet linkage to X's video streaming servers, terrestrial internet linkage back to your Starlink point-of-presence, terrestrial linkage from there to the most ideal ground station, and then a single Starlink satellite relay between the ground station and your terminal, provided you're in an area close to a ground station.
(And mine, I'm also on Starlink, in north Idaho, so I'm really kinda doing these numbers based on what I'd get as I'm only about 30 miles from the closest ground station).
I used the Starlink Coverage Tracker to estimate ISL numbers and orbital plane proximity to ground stations since I don't know if the ISL links can jump between orbital planes or if it's limited to linking with other satellites on the same orbital plane.
i think the impressive part is the software
the body gave up but the brains made up for it
@@namenloss730 Yes. Their software control overcame the unexpected hardware damage. That is the most impressive part
@@syjiang At one point when it's getting close to the ground you can see how the nose dips to almost pointing straight down and the software compensates and manages to get it back into the position it's suppose to be in.
I was NOT expecting an episode featuring SpaceX. Am looking forward to watching this one!!
Sadly SpaceX program has one major point of failure. Musk.
@@HanSolo__looool, Imagine how delusional and how affected you are from Elon Derangement Syndrome to make a comment line this.
@@HanSolo__ Exactly, will be the death of Space X
SpaceX is a joke. Musk is a liar and a Nazi traitorZ
@@larswhitt1549 somehow its thriving right now since he has founded this company in 2002
Poor Aus with no space tech because firing stuff downward really doesn't get you into space.
Nose FE burn.
The Kiwi's have a launch site. Emutopia has a launcher gap.
Well, Rocket Labs is just next door and they are bringing out a mostly reusable rocket named Neutron which in my view is the best spaceship design out there - particularly if what you care about is rapid, cost effective reuse. Lots of Oz engineers work for them.
@@saumyacow4435 Gilmour Space Technologies is an Australian startup, due to launch their first rocket into orbit this year.
@saumyacow4435 lots of Americans too?
The Starship test flight was so insane. Hyped for its future.
There's a chance that they capture the first stage for reuse on the next flight. That will be pretty impressive. Apparently Starship touched down at almost zero speed which would make it catchable. The issue is likely whether they have adequate control over location. Grabbing Starship with a couple of arms makes for a smaller target than landing on a barge.
@@bobwallace9753 Small correction, it's the booster that will be the thing they try to catch. Catching starship comes later as it's landing profile is much more complex and will require more practice flights to get to a point where it can precisely target a small point.
The way you laid it all out, made me realize that what Space X has achieved so far is a lot more impressive than I thought it was. I hope they 10x that in the future, wonder what that would look like.
Reducing the projected unit-mass-cost of Starship by a factor of 10 would look like "Mars is the current hot vacation destination for rich people". Reduce it by another factor of 10 and it's "Robotic asteroid mining has become competitive with traditional ore extraction and smelting methods".
What spaceX achieved is beyond extreme impressive...
...issue is that Musk is a liability. As in he could face jailtime for fraud.
As such the real question is "will the powers that be care to salvage spaceX after the inevitable catches up with musk?"
@@andersjjensenExcept it’s never gonna happen.
@@GrahamCStrouse it already has. if you look at the price per KG on the space shuttle VS a falcon 9. its already 25x cheaper on the falcon 9. (2600$ per KG on falcon 9 to 65,000$ per KG on the space shuttle). really only needs a 4x price decrease for anders to be right with what hes saying.
@@GrahamCStrouseyou should volunteer to go to Mars, you can complain the whole way
One of my favorite RUclips analysts doing a deep dive on my favorite company is a real weekend treat.
Regarding the weight trade-offs of steel vs carbon composites. It's true that carbon composite is stronger than steel for a given weight, under normal circumstances. But these are not normal circumstances.
SpaceX uses something they call "deep cryo methalox". This means unlike others who chill their propellants to just below their boiling point, SpaceX chills theirs all they way down to just above the freezing point. They do this because colder propellant is denser and therefore they can pump more of it in the tank.
The ship's hull needs to handle anything from those extremely low temperatures (minus 218°C for liquid oxygen) all the way up to the inferno of reentry (there's a heat shield, yes, but I'm guessing the amount of heat that still gets through is significant). SpaceX did their homework and found out that across this range of temperatures, stainless steel actually has better strength to weight performance than carbon composites. So much better in fact, that using steel leads to weight savings. Partly because they get to use less material, and partly because they get away with using a less substantial heat shield.
Yeah, I recently watched an interview with Elon where he also mentioned that using stainless steel also makes it easier to keep the propellants pressurized without using an extra gas (e.g. helium). Deleting that entire system also reduces the overall weight of the rocket.
Sometimes you just need the advantages that steel offers over basically any other material
I've never been more excited to see a PowerPoint presentation. Perun is so interesting.
0:21 Nice to see Command & Conquer 3: Tiberium Wars get a reference. Great game.
Oddly specific since the ion cannon was a thing since the very first C&C game.
@@VikingKong. True, but he did mention orbital weapons which GDI did have from Tiberian Sun (drop pods) and C&C 3 had GDI using orbital bombardment artillery. Shockwave EMP shells anyone?
@@rhedosaurus2251it's kinda like mentioning the Millennium Falcon and someone else says "oh yeah I loved Solo!".
@@mechsquid2 Tiberium Wars is FAR more loved by its community then Solo is by that of Star Wars
@@rhedosaurus2251 to be fair. the americans in C&C generals also had a orbital weapon..sort of. that being the particle uplink cannon. wich uses a massive space mirror to blast a lazer fired from the ground at the enemy.
35:41 I wasn't aware that Mitsubishi Heavy Industries launched rockets, but I guess of course they do lol
As he (basically) said in his video on the Japanese defense industry, if it's happening in Japan then Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is doing a major part of it.
and Subaru makes telescopes
Giant conglomerates basically control the Japanese economy. It's a huge part of why Japan has declined so much. It's hugely inefficient and there's just no competition. Not to mention the political control they have too...
Whenever someone is confused as to why at least one of the megacorps in every scifi setting is invariably Japanese, I say it's because the writer was too afraid to actually put Mitsubishi in the setting.
Mitsubishi among other things owns the second largest commercial bank on the planet.
They Do Everything.
Help me Perun, I'm going Cold Turkey.
You can't get me hooked then cause a sudden withdrawal.
I'm a gibbering wreck man, you gotta give me something.
He's been ill, hoping for next week.
Perun talking about Starship... Be still my beating heart
Pokes Perun with a stick... "C'mon, drop a new PowerPoint already"
Me too!
I gotta recheck the channel update lol
@thelukesternater I came back for the same reason. He said he'd be back next week 1:03:18
Maybe his schedule is a little off due to fathers day?
@@_Twinkhe made a community post yesterday. He's sick, we'll get it Monday.
Apparently he's lost his voice so he's going to try and get the video out as soon as possible but he's going to try and take care of himself first
Babe wake up a new power point just dropped.
Don’t touch my penis!
oh how original, either this or "I'm a simple man, I see bla bla bla" 🥱🥱🥱
@@farminkyanother word for "unoriginal" is "classic" 😂
@@frankhaugen that could be a euphemism yes 🤣
God, 5hut up w/this hackneyed comment.
About to drive an hour to go hiking. Your timing is impeccable, Australian Defense Economics Powerpoint Man.
Try "Australian Defense Economics Powerpoint Titan" ;-)
@@irgendwieanders2121 ADEPT
SO SAY WE ALL!
@@pietpiraat1353 🤗
Thank you Perun.
You're amazing - generating one of these per week for 28 months. You manage humor and good intellectual content in everyone of them.
I've missed your weekly posts... but mostly hoping that you are safe and well.
He announced to Patrons that he's been ill, with his voice particularly affected. Hoping for next week.
Thanks for the update!
Hope he gets well soon.
@@statmonster I just dropped in to check on this as well. Best wishes. I miss your posts as well.
38:29 what makes this even funnier is that Europe's launch capability shortage got so bad they recently had to launch some of their aforementioned Galileo GNSS satellites on a SpaceX Falcon 9, because the Ariane 6 was coming along so well.
I actually think that was an overreaction because Europe has used ULA before and NASA has used arriane space for the James Webb so there's always been mutual Sharing of payloads
It will take longer for them, rocket tech is pretty much stagnating. They will eventually get their own rockets.
@@TheMagicJIZZ These are companies, Arianespace, ULA, and SpaceX. Anyone can pay them to deliver payload to orbit. Of course there are some limitations and launch platform and host country must agree for launches these companies do. In other words, it's a market.
What is interesting is that 5 years ago Elon Musk was doing a publicity tour in Europe and told a British interviewer then that the proposed Ariane 6 would not be able to compete with Falcon, so he didn't understand why they were going ahead with the design. I have yet to see any sign that Arianespace is even testing a reusable rocket.
This is a good example of why private enterprise - usually small up-and-coming companies - will always be the ones to innovate. For the established, government funded players, there's no upside to risk. They have guaranteed jobs, a guaranteed customer, and lots of political downside for making mistakes. All their incentives point away from experimentation and risk.
@@StereoSpace While your theory is sound, there are alternatives. For example China can use sort of vertical integration, because the economy there is different. Government funds it but they have similar control over it that Soviets did. Bit different though, as Soviets had competing design commissions, but you get the point. We don't fully know how China handles their program, but basically they also have customers already, themselves as the government. Maximum profit or marker share is not the goal here, the capabilities are, so different things can be optimized than payload cost.
So while countries and economies have these differences, their goals are different too. It doesn't mean that it necessarily kills innovation if government funds it or not. How much contractor hands are tied matters more, and let's not forget that SpaceX has reached this position they now have thanks to public funding and private investment both.
Sunday PowerPoint time is a "Go!" for launch!
SpaceX wasn't having failures with those crashes of Starship. They were making incremental progress. Everyone knew that they were likely to end in fire before the launches. But they were able to speed up production while at the same time testing new system. Every launch has been a success whether it be an advance or just getting an already out dated version off the pad and out of the way.
There are very well founded arguments that ground testing was insufficient, qnd significant test goals were missed on the first three launches, with the first onw being grossly negligent and incredibly dangerous.
Their progress so far is comperable to, but slower than that on Saturn V.
Fascinating - I must admit that I hadn't been paying attention - progress has been so quick I'm a little astounded - thanks Perun!
I've been following the space and I was still shocked seeing the raw numbers
Perun talking starship? Let’s goooo
lol how condescending are some of these critical comments. "Perun, if only you listened to my favourite RUclipsr that knows nothing about spaceflight, then you'd know the truth about SpaceX!"
LOL. Perun nailed the military, commercial, and science (including exploration) impacts of increased launch capabilities and laid out the big picture beautifully.
????
@@the_undead OP is referring to the anti SpaceX channels that know nothing about engineering but are also criticizing Perun
@@oompalumpus699 after having reread the comment I don't know what I was thinking but I was definitely misinterpreting the way this was worded
It occurred to me that Perun's "See you all... next week" has echoes of "Same bat time... same bat channel"
I think the implications of the new space race are that many Isaac Arthur videos will soon be categorized under "current events" instead of "futurism".
YEEEAA powerpoint man is talking spaceships
54:08 - By God, T-72s just catching strays out of nowhere, please stop Perun they're already dead
No. More... More! *MORE!!!*
Is Space X our timelines Weyland-Yutani? Perun investigates...
Given Weyland-Yutani where able to actually accomplish things, no.
@@ZontarDowimagine thinking that the only innovative space launch provider which is responsible for putting up more mass to orbit per year than everyone else on the Earth combined for a fraction of the cost of the competition can't accomplish anything. 🤡🤡🤡 you wanna hate on Elon? Go for it, plenty to hate him for. But thinking that SpaceX can't accomplish things is some serious alternate reality shit.
@@ZontarDow lol they are doing over 100 launches a year. China does 6% of Earth to Orbit Tonnage, the rest of the world 4%. Space X alone accounts for 90% per year, this number will only increase when the starship becomes operation which is very likely to by sometime next year.
@@TheNheg66 I have a bridge to sell you.
@@harshpandey3907 "Likely by sometime next year"? Musk himself has set it being operational in 2029, with SpaceX needing another 9 billion in capital from outside sources to cover the development costs above what NASA's contracts have given them to do it. And Musk is insanely optimistic beyond what is realistic when it comes to timelines. Starship entering service in the next 5 years is 0% likely, even if we presuppose the unrealistic idea that it ever will enter service.
"The Lords of Lift" "The Princes of Payload" i fucking love it.
Can I just point out what a mind blowing feat of human optimism it was that we were confident that we could shoot a roll of photography tape in a container from a satellite to Earth and recover it to use the photos.
One thing worth noting is that probably the biggest change since the shuttle has been that the cost-plus paradigm is mostly over, and contractors are expected to bid what they can realistically deliver at the price they bid. But much of the development cost, while more efficiently applied, is still shouldered by the respective governments. SpaceX absolutely would have failed before it had a single successful launch if the government hadn't taken a risk on them.
But it did succeed to the point, where it can deliver triple the launch capacity at only 30% higher cost of Soyuz, which was the unquestionable standard beforehand.
And less than half the launch cost is a very significant development to the exonomy of putting stuff into space. Significant enough it might be worth looking at industrializing space to mine Trojans for precious metals again. And once that happens, the world as we know it is over, and a century later we will have as many humans off earth as we have on it.
A few weeks ago I posted a few comments talkijg about how much your presentations have improved over the past few years. In that comment I attempted to identify how you improved in specific terms. After looking back at the older videos I realized that I had misidentified the specifics of how you had improved. As far as I can tell, you use the same transitions, the same style, and the same types of imagery, your presentations are largely the same in their base elements. I cannot tell the specifics, but you use all of those elements to a much greater effect in these newer presentations than it feels like you did in your older ones.
And yes, your audio quality has also improved greatly since the start.
That's all I had to say, love the presentations and I hope you feel better!
"it when to Kerbal space program of rocket design, when in doubt just add more booster" ... I died laughing. My man your video game references are peak comedy.
A full third of peruns subjects I think are going to be yawners… there are no yawners. This one in particular, turns out it’s my favorite so far.
Thank you sir.
In a world where nothing is certain, you can always count on Sunday morning Perun
Cheers 🍻
This statement didn't hold up. :(
@@Hale444 Eh, he posted that he was sick, we can give him a pass 🙂
@@Hale444It's the first time in several years that he's entirely missed an upload, I'm not complaining
Currently going through withdrawals from my Perun PowerPoint presentation addiction.
3:25 "no matter how slow your modern internet connection is, it's probably got a speed advantage over space mail"
Being a university student in Australia, I did an IT essay discussing how putting SD cards in a homing pigeon has greater bandwidth than ADSL
One more thing with the advantage SpaceX has: the barriers to entry are so big in this field - it's literally rocket science. It's not just programming a new app, but engineering a rocket, getting all the government permissions and then building the goddamn thing
Hey buddy, hope you’re getting well because I really miss your stuff.
I wouldn't have thought my 2 favorite topics that feature hours long video-essays will combine
somehow I get the feeling that Perun is a space and rocket enthusiast like me…. And I was like, yup! Makes absolute sense. Rockets are cool!!
"There's a broader obsevation to make here... that fear of failure or perceived failure can get in the way of exploiting failure as a tool to achieve success."
Well said. I really appreciate this way of looking at it, it's often difficult to succinctly explain the benefits of SpaceX's approach to testing to someone who is unfamiliar with how it works and only knows how NASA or other conventional space organisations have worked, often with the bonus of disliking the program only because of Musk being involved, whether he does significant work there or not.
Space is a rapidly evolving frontier nowadays and while I wish it was in better geopolitical circumstances, I hope that it will make for many long years of fascinating analyses yet to come.
SpaceX didint pointlessly lose falcons to engine ignition failiours, launchpad integrity failiours, attitude control system failiours etc. They lost them to insufficiencies in the self landing system, whicb was totally new and impossible to test at scale without being in flight.
Engine ignition failiour shouldnt evwn have been an option. They ahould have ignited the raptor array then tousand times in a simulator setup, and fixed whatever was causing the issue groundside.
What you ended up with instead is losing an entire test vehicle to a preventable issue, and a fix that wasnt thoroughly tested enough because of a repeatable ground test rack.
There is a good reason complex mechanical systems only enter working load tesring after extensive quality assurance in component testing, vecause ut has been thoroughly proben to be safer, more effwctive at finding and fixing issues, and more cost effective.
Just because musk comes from a software background where full prototype testing is quick painless and cheap, does not make it suddenly applicable to literal rocket science. Watch starship be delayed by an additional 5 years for thorough ground component QA testing after the first hivh profile in flight falioure of a live mission. Either that, or they will have to do it on their own.
The current launches are little more than fireworks.
Okay, funniest line by far. "The cheapest way to send something into orbit besides shooting a missile at a T-72."
Who needs Netflix when you have Perun's Powerpoints? ( listening & learning while devouring unhealthy amount of M&M's)
Worth adding that for all the time, risk, complexity, and cost of building the ISS, Starship can put than same volume into orbit on a single launch.
This means that if Vlad follows thru on his threat to remove Russian modules from the ISS, thereby killing it, SpaceX could effectively send up a Starship and just leave it there.
Watching this great Perun Content, on a Starlink Service here in Rural Australia, it’s been a game changer!
Time for my weekly PowerPoint session!
Nice one. Very impressive to go into history of spaceflight to set a foundation but not turn it into a six hour video. Informative, expansive, but concise. Well done
Can't wait for that third video, Starship's sheer ambition inspires a lot of ambitious concepts for its use
That Starship launch was awesome. Even better when you hear the crowd.
A Perun episode about SpaceX?! All my Christmases have come at once!!!
I love witnessing power-point thunder from the man down under.
If meetings at work were as good as these presentations, I would look forward to them.
One of the best Space documentation i have ever seen. The topic is very close to my heart, too. Thank you very much for this one.
Happy spacy Sunday foe everyone!
Never thought I would see a video from Perun on this subject... I love it.
Sitting here watching this in the literal middle of nowhere - using Starlink. Anyone who hasn’t used it cannot comprehend of how utterly world-changing these massive LEO constellations are going to be, and how world changing they have already been.
Perun is 4 days late on an upload and there is no update. First time I've seen this since the war started. I'm scared
He's ill. Flue or something. Nothing to worry about.
Was not expecting Lord Farquad to be a credible strategist
Literally refreshing every Sunday to catch new vid as soon as it gets realeased
This is probably my favorite video of yours, great job!
I hope you do another Space video that goes into detail over the sorts of things satellites can do in space and what they are currently capable of doing. Are they able to track targets in real time?
Yes & if you could launch heaver satellites with more fuel or refuel old satellites hell yes!
The Space Shuttle launched 135 times. It should have continued considering the failures were basically quality control oversights.
Some of the inherent safety issues of Shuttle could not be eliminated without a complete re-design.
No it should not. Cost is a failure all its own.
SpaceX is set to hit 135 this year alone and at one fifth the cost per kilogram. Perun talks bout it in the video
The Shuttle was a failure on almost every level. Its only actual success was that the orbiter was _mostly_ reusable. The rest of the craft wasn't, really, it could barely reach the lowest of orbits, and having to practically rebuild the 'reusable' bits made it more expensive with a slower launch tempo than an expendable rocket with a similar payload/lift capacity.
A Perun episode about Starship? O_O
I would like to point out that the Santa Maria, which carried Columbus to the new world, displaced around 150 tonnes, had an overall length of less than 20 metres, and a beam of around 5.5 meters.
So hypothetically if you gave a replica Santa Maria some folding mast to make it more compact, a Starship might be able to send it to Mars.
I would love it if SpaceX one day placed a replica Santa Maria in Martian orbit to sail forever.
Those of us old enough to remember the early days of the space race, got to see a lot of spectacular failures. Congress is so reactionary.
8-track tapes were invented by NASA to continuously record satellite data. My father worked on lunar orbiter.
I always remembered the bit in the movie The Right Stuff, where the Saturn V blows up again and again in visually spectacular ways...and they pick themselves up and do another launch until they got it right.
@@MM22966 The fk you talking about. One of the entire saturn series had a failure. ONE out of 32.
@@N0d4chi Didn't know the numbers. In the movie, there were multiple rockets blowing up in testing. Maybe I am getting it confused with Mercury/Redstone.
@@MM22966 Yea that was mercury it seems :D
@@N0d4chi Thanks.
Finally, the Terra invicta cross over the perun gaming folk were looking for
Wooo space series returns! And as someone working on a SAR sat loving the attention
Amd now my sunday is complete. Thank you perun!
This is like Christmas for me- my favorite defense econonics youtuber covering my favorite subject!
Always nice to get a bit of space-based analysis from powerpoint daddy.
Hope you're making the most of the long weekend to depressurise mate, cheers 👍
(same to everyone watching)
Rusha' tried to send a rocket to the moon but ended up bombing Belgorod 🤣
Another sterling presentation - Thanks Perun.
This is the episode I was waiting for, but never thought we'd get
A big game changer is the race to get back to the Moon... _and stay there._ Permanent Bases on the Moon will completely change logistics and the construction and launch of new space based equipment in various orbits.
Because while very large sensors and so on can be built on the Moon, it's orbit is not very flexible when it comes to observing specific points on Earth.
And then further on, there's the possibilities of resource gathering and "energy farming" of the Moon, with the race for He³.
So in a decade or so there will be a lot of attention paid to Mooning... 🌗
I presume this was just a really long buildup to a joke since the moon is essentially strategically useless.
Just in case you were serious, what could the moon possibly offer? It's 1000 times the distance from LEO. That means you need to make your sensors 1000 times as big (in linear dimensions so area goes as square) to collect the same amount of signal. Besides you need to deal with landing as well as launching now.
It makes sense for *telescopes* because they are looking out towards the essentially infinitely distant stars.
Resource farming is only useful because you need resources *on the moon* otherwise your better off just mining it on earth. And He3 just won't be part of a useful power cycle if we have to get it from the moon.
I’m all in on the mooning part, but it doesn’t involve any helium.
No chance, at most it’s going to be like ISS
Bunch of scientists and engineers with regular personnel reshuffle and resupply.
He3 is a pipe dream made by scifi writers who lived through the oil crisis. Energy on Earth is abundant. Clean energy is abundant. Why bother mining and refining regolith on the moon to send energy back to earth when you can set up some windmills, hydro-power, and fission reactors.
I agree with every part of what you just said except for the one about helium3. Helium3 could very well allow for nuclear fusion energy to be possible. I believe that 100 tones of this stuff could support the US energy grid for a year making the extraction of this material so lucrative that it may be worth shipping the stuff back here. Also it's only about 4 days of travel away which is far shorter than than several month to year long trips to and from other planets.
Space-dropping recon film and making sure it was recovered by the right side was a central plot point of "Ice Station Zebra".
Enjoyable episode, many thanks on the comprehensive update.
More of this, Perun! Thanks bud 🤘
I can hear Thunderf00t's smug chuckling about how Space X is still a failure in response to this video all the way here in Australia.
“You morons, you absolute morons”
Thanks for making the video
Holy crap, a Perun video on Starship? Now this I gotta watch. Super excited for this one.
The two subjects I watch the most RUclips videos about merge into one!
Great video as always, thank you🙏
Let's go, a Perun video on my Birthday, best present ever!!!
Happy birthday Bro🍀
Thank you for covering SpaceX without hyperventilating. Their achievements are amazing and exciting, and I'd imagine there is quite a bit about the way SpaceX contracts with the US Government that would be very interesting to try to replicate into other industries like Defense.
One thing you didn't cover that I think deserves some inspection: the relative payload cost of Starship and things like the B-52 or B-1. The payload nominally goes different places, but to motivate the comparison, consider the combination of AMaRV (small, precision guided, 100 G maneuverable American reentry vehicle that flew three times in 1979-1981) and Starship. Starship could put over 200 AMaRVs onto any battlefield on Earth in 45 minutes. AMaRVs could punch out ships, planes, tanks, artillery, deep bunkers and maybe even subs if they could be located. Reusability and rapid recycle mean that a pair of SuperHeavies and a half dozen Starships might deliver more AMaRVs in a day than the entire United States Air Force can deliver JDAMs in the same time period... with fewer interceptions, for much less money, using crews and equipment entirely based in the continental United States.
I guarantee China is thinking about this possibility and what it means for a Taiwanese invasion.
Perun, this was a REALLY good video! Congrats!
Thank you Perun.
You make Sunday evenings less dreadful