📊 Semi-Final 1 Qualifier Prediction | Eurovision 2023
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- Опубликовано: 3 авг 2024
- I'm an Irish🇮🇪 Eurovision analyst, reactor and superfan from Dublin, Ireland.
Twitter: @EurovisionTom
If you want to support my work, you can buy me a delicious coffee ☕️ yum yum 🥰
www.buymeacoffee.com/ESCTom
These are my PRe-REHEARSAL Predictions for who will qualify from Semi Final 1 of Eurovision 2023.
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:34 Criteria for Making decisions
3:52 Sweden
4:39 Finland
5:15 Norway
5:48 Azerbaijan
7:27 Israel
8:56 Ireland
10:48 Serbia
12:25 Latvia
14:25 Czechia
15:37 Portugal
17:13 Moldova
18:12 Malta & Croatia
21:14 Netherlands & Switzerland
24:37 YOUR poll qualfiers
#ESC2023 #Eurovision #EurovisionReaction #eurovision2023 #EurovisionAnalysis
#Prediction #Semi-Final1 
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THE RETURN OF THE FRIDGE MAGNEETTTSSS
I really hope that Latvia can go through, they got a really bad draw and they haven't qualified since 2016, but the fact that the fans it has are really, really dedicated makes me hopeful that there'll be enough people willing to vote for it.
I wish the LAtvia delegation wouldnt leave it up to the fans though. I just want them to bring gorgeous staging and just take a spot, instead of hoping/waiting for others to screw up
even as a portugese im backing latvia
I will be in the "rest of the world" voting block, but I will be voting for Latvia as much as possible. :)
I’m British and totally supporting Latvia! It’s so atmospheric. Love how it starts slow and slowly builds
Really rooting for Moldova and Croatia to qualify 🥳
My personal top 10 that I WANT to qualify: Latvia, Malta, Portugal, Serbia, Azerbaijan, Czech Republic, Finland, Israel, Sweden, Switzerland.
Who I think will qualify: Croatia, Norway, Portugal, Serbia, Czech Republic, Finland, Israel, Moldova, Sweden, Netherlands/Switzerland (not sure between these two).
Obrigada, é só o que eu tenho a dizer. ❤agrademos por dar chance a nossa música, Portugal
I really hope Latvia will qualify!
Finland will slay! 🎉 🇫🇮 It is so unique, good feeling, dancing, perfect! ❤️🔥
I love Portugal ❤
I love her vocals, her stage presence is awesome😊 she's charismatic.......
Liverpool is in for a tsunami when she performs 😂🎉🎉🎉❤ her English songs are great 👍 ❤
Obrigada ❤
You mentioned that Serbian would understand the lyrics of Croatia's song but there's one more thing: the lyrics are so simple that all slavics understand 90% of it ;) And I think that Croatia might get a lot of points from Czechia too and if there were more slavic countries in the 1st semi-final, Croatia would be a 100% qualifier
ah ok very interesting point, so that helps them even more then
Croatian/Serbian and Balkans from Australia will vote too
Even I, with my poor knowledge of Russian, understood about 40% of Croatia's song
Reasons why I think Serbia is sure qualifier next to Scandinavians here:
First, Samo mi se spava in general taps into the same demographics as Konstrakta did last year (more artsy, intellectual, and the ones who would like to be seen as such). It's not as impactful as Konstrakta but it can attract more younger GenZ people, since it's angsty, electronic and visually flirting with things youngsters love (games and anime). Also I've noticed people ranking it high regardless of their overall taste. In a sense that it ends in personal top 5s equally among those whose top is Norway, Sweden or Israel and among those who put Latvia first. Therefore it makes me think that Samo mi se spava has universal appeal.
Voting vise, we also have Switzerland here, from where we usally get lots of points. I'd add here Malta too, since quite a lot (relatively to the Maltese population) people from ex-yu went to work there.
If I'm right about the first thought, we should do well with the Czechia, Sweden, Finland and Israel who gave us decent points last year in the Semi, and we managed to get even some in the Grand Final from Malta and Norway I think. So, if Luke manages to capture let's say half the attention Konstrakta had last year I think our qualification is non-disputable. I'd even say likely top 4, and I'd be surprised in anything below 7th.
I predict 20 points from Croatia and Switzerland combined, around 15 from Scandinavians, 4-5 Latvia, Czechia, Malta, and Israel, couple from Ireland and The Netherlands, and from the rest I'm not sure. Also, we can scrap something from big 3 since Konstrakta has got 7 from Germany and Italy, and 8 from France in Grand Final - there's no reason to think Luke will be completely ignored by them among handful of songs.
Btw, I'd love to see Azerbaijan and Malta qualifying over Norway and especially Israel. I know it's too much to ask so I'd be happy with Malta in and Israel out. And televoters can surprise sometimes (think Belgium and Iceland last year; some fans would say Moldova also, considering how they ranked it before).
israel will be at the final!!
How do you know , we have lots of Serbians in Malta ?
@@gilmourattard3625 I've seen it myself couple of years ago. Almost every restaurant between Sliema and St. Julian had someone from here working there. Even in Gozo I've seen a group of people rooting for Serbia in some sport event on TV. Beside that I also know some eurofans who moved there and got back after covid.
I don't think you understand how much I've missed these magnets
they missed you too 😅
There's a live version of Croatia's song out recently where the operatic elements seemed backgrounded and the song itself came through which it made a huge difference. Its a really rockin' tune! And the costumes were GREAT, gorgeous colours. I think if they rejig (as they'll be forced to anyway) and the audience is not being distracted by massive missiles, they're a lock for the final and I'd be pretty happy about that personally, because they represent Croatia's music scene in such a unique and authentic way.
Sure qualifiers:
1.Sweden🇸🇪
2.Finland🇫🇮 (could win semi 1)
3.Norway🇳🇴
Very likely:
4.Israel🇮🇱
5.Serbia🇷🇸
6.Croatia🇭🇷
7.Czechia🇨🇿
Should pass:
8.Moldova🇲🇩
9.Portugal🇵🇹
Battle for last place in finals:
10.Switzerland🇨🇭
11.Netherlands🇳🇱
Likely no:
12.Malta🇲🇹
13.Latvia🇱🇻
Very likely no:
14.Ireland🇮🇪
15.Azerbaijan🇦🇿
Oh my gosh, after this I'm a bit of scared, for Serbia 😢😢😢 I really hope that we will not be the shock non qualified 😳
But someone will be, this semifinal is so strong 😳 Hope that Luke will be able to get to the grand final 🦞❤️🤞🤞🤞🤞
I am scared too! But I think there is a greater chance it might be us (the Netherlands) instead of Serbia :)
@@RuddeyBoy90 im dutch and I honestly dont mind not qualifying if it means serbia can get through :)
@@rat9822 For every country in semi 1 I have reasons why they should qualify. It is very strong. And I think Serbia will surely qualify. I have no doubt about that. I even give the Netherlands a better shot at qualifying now since we perform in 14th. But we will see :)
Together with Alesia Michelle, you are my favourite Eurovision analyst ❤ hugs from Denmark!
Thank you Elsa 🥰, I love Alesia too
+1 - they go into depth, and always say something substantial and well informed and thought of, unlike those whose peak level of analysis is "this song does nothing to me".
@@igortirkajla8042 Exactly, they’re the best. I also suggest you to follow ThePeaceAround and Groot who do a more in-depth analysis on the musical aspect of each Eurovision song.
@@esc_george I wanted to add ThePeaceAround wwho I discovered recently. Groot is fine too, but when it comes to real unbiased as possible analysis, Tom is the best. Others are good to describe a song, but Tom actually does the data analysis so his predictions are the most grounded and reliable. He simply knows to differentiate "I want it to qualify" and "I think it''ll qualify". And that's the point where most of the others fail.
Yep by miles Tom is my favourite. From watching the comp since I was a child in the 80’s, no other reaction channel/Eurovision reactor comes close to his level of analysis, detail and knowledge (I’d have Matt from ESC United as my 2nd fave 😊)
I solemnly swear to vote hard for Latvia 🤚🏽🕯️😭 Let’s manifest it y’all!
Pretty much agree with everything you said. Really hoping for Latvia to get through as well but since I'm from Australia I can't vote in this semi :(
Love seeing the Nordics on top! Even though I am not the biggest fan of our own song or Sweden, it's cool to see our neighbors succeed and be fan favorites. Finland will be getting my votes in this semi, most likely ☺
There was a very funny viral tweet on Twitter of someone who posted that the contest should be held on the intersection of the three Nordic borders in Lapland next year 😂
@lillecathrine what don't you enjoy about Queen of Kings? 🤔
@@ESCTom Let's let Denmark host on behalf of the Nordics 😂 #PlotTwist
@@ESCTom Oof. Lol. That intersection probably still has 2 feet of snow in May. 😶😄 Funny idea though. 😊
@@MasterKnutA It's just not that special to me. I prefer songs that have something personal or emotional, or songs that are out of the box like Finlands song. For me it's just a basic pop song, nothing more or less. We might not have had any winner songs in MGP 2023, but yeah. It's just pretty mid-table stuff for what I like 🙂 I also don't think her vocals are the best.
I have to repeat what I said once: I love you ❤ You're such a sweetheart 💖, hugs and kisses from Serbia.
I will just copy-paste my general notes (sorry about the length 😅):
In no particular order within their groups.
DEFINITE Q's
🇫🇮 - fan favorite
🇸🇪 - fan favorite
🇮🇱 - seems to have celebrity status
LIKELY Q's
🇲🇩 - good vocals; catchy; intriguing visual concept; NS performance shows massive staging potential
🇱🇻 - good vocals; indie but accessible; subtle, classy NS staging; not particularity catchy which could be received as either interesting or boring
🇵🇹 - excellent vocals; girly bop adjacent but unique; staging has a lot of potential to be both fun and memorable; cabaret seems like it would be a polarizing genre within ESC
🇲🇹 - the only entry in this semi that screams "unbridled fun"; could be perceived as too simplistic
🇭🇷 - the only "weirdo" option; ESC audience loves weirdo entries, especially if they're done well; with a bit of polish this could be a quality weirdo; vocals are extremely grating live
🇳🇴 - a decent girly bop; has the advantage of being one of only two girly bops in this semi; sounds a bit dated
🇷🇸 - alone in its category; slaps hard; great atmosphere; memorable visual concept; EDM and his vocal style could be polarizing
🇨🇿 - catchy; epic chorus; promising visuals from the music video; dodgy NS performance; interactions between the performers could end up being of the Fulenn quality
LESS LIKELY Q's
🇳🇱 - with jury votes this would have a much higher chance of qualifying-they still might if their chemistry and vocals are rock solid, otherwise they will need Gandalf level staging wizardry
🇮🇪 - solid live performance; incredibly bland but not terrible; might have a chance if they go bagless and manage to pull off a mind-blowingly charming staging (there definitely won't be any charming going on if they decide to keep those bags);
🇨🇭 - see 🇳🇱 ; preachy lyrics are going to be polarizing
🇦🇿 - there's potential for some unique, quirky staging; indie but not nearly as polished or as accessible as Latvia; not catchy enough for ESC and I can't imagine Britpop having massive appeal among the modern ESC viewership
I completly agree with your list. Regardless if you like their songs or not, objectively speaking, those 10 countries will qualify (at the moment) based on how Eurovision works. Although in my personal prediction, I want Latvia to make it rather than the Netherlands
I love these videos you make so much, I get fully immersed haha
thank you Linda 🥰
im always worried people wont like it when im rambling about eurovision for 27 minutes so glad there are some who enjoy it 😂
Serbia No.1 ❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤❤
Hi from China! As soon as I see those different countries' flags' pins, I 'm pretty sure they are from China! hahaha We produce most of the world's souvenirs or accessories :)
haha yep and they were so cheap, it was one of the really cool things about living there. i remember i would see Instagram ads for something for $100 and then go on taobao and it would cost only $10 😂
Btw i am planning to record a review in Mandarin this year, so look out for that soon 😊
Nordic Domination 🎉🎉🎉
Great video!
thanks Danny 😂
LOVE INJECTED💫💖 omg one of my all time favs
I’m voting for Latvia this year because I want them to go through as well! Twinning lol
Croatia will go through. That song and performance are unforgettable and just pure Eurovision. Even if they don't get 12 from Serbia, and they likely will, they will still qualify. About Luke, artists on PzE finance their own performances, so this performance can only be elevated, by a lot, since Luke is not a well-established artist who has lots of money to invest in any single perofmance.
ah ok interesting, i didnt realise that about PZE
I wish I could vote in this semi, as half of my top 10 is here (Norway, Finland, Moldova, Serbia and Portugal) (the other five are Australia, UK, France, Austria and Belgium) and really wanted to push forward those songs. I hope those will qualify, the rest of the semi i'd like to pass to the final are Switzerland, Czechia, Netherlands, Sweden and Israel.
Unexpected qualifyer for me will be Croatia, it's so wacky and out there that it can be possible.
Welcome back to the fridge magnets!!!!!!! 😄😄
You’re such nerd and I absolutely love it! Thanks for a good and thorough video.
One thing I will say about Croatia, Let3 might just torpedo themselves by doing something to get themselves disqualified just to make a scene. If the rumours about them being forbidden from going with Severina are true (they originally did the male vocals for Moja Stikla, you can see them in the music video), then they're a real wild card XD
I dont know this Severina thing, can you explain it to me pls?
(could you write it in a new comment pls, because youtube doesnt notify me about replies, only 1st messages)
Tom, you the best. From Portugal. 🤫🤪🥰
Thumbs up for you, Tom! Yes, Luke reminds me of NIN, that's part of the reason I love him so much :)
I love your categorisation. Here is mine :)
Definitely yes: Sweden, Norway, Finland
Likely yes: Israel, Serbia (gosh, I hope he won't be the shock nq!), Netherlands, Moldova
Borderline yes: Czechia (I think this one will be much less popular with the genral public than with the esc fandom), Portugal, Croatia, Malta
Borderline no: Latvia, Switzerland
Likely no: Azerbaijan
Definitely no: Ireland
My guess for NQs: Ireland, Switzerland, Azerbaijan, Latvia....torn for the fifth.
I think Malta and Croatia will surprise, even though they're not popular in the esc community.
I would always give you thumbs up , because you have always good comments and you aren't mean towards songs that you dont care for that much...you are really objective yet respectful. Thumbs down are meaningless to give but harmful to a RUclipsr. So if the vlogger isn’t brutally mean, dont do that.
Thanks Krista, things are much better since RUclips started hiding thumbs down. Before that you couldn’t say a single negative thing about any song or you would have a 60 or 70% thumbs down ratio, even if you said it very nicely
Comment for engagement! ❤
🤗
Definately Q:
Sweden
Finland
Israel
Norway
Likely Q:
Switzerland
Croatia
Portugal
Netherlands
Possible Shock Q:
Malta
Latvia
Possible Shock NQ:
Czechia
Serbia
Moldova
Probably NQ:
Ireland
Azerbaijan
Yessssss The fridge magnets!!!!
You know it’s getting into the competition proper when they make an appearance!
Love these Analysis videos ❤
Great video new fan here! I thought we knew the performing order long time ago 😅
Excellent and thorough analysis. Agree with everything you say. Looking forward to semi final 2 thoughts.
I thoroughly enjoy these videos, great job Tom!
Thank you 🥰
Really love these deep dives
That's the best prediction I've seen. I 100% agree with everything. I posted on Facebook my prediction a couple of days ago and it looked exactly like that.
thanks dimos! 🥰
I hope that there are a couple of changes. I want some countries to come with some BIG ideas and shake things up
i don´t like Croatia´s song but because the song is crazy and against the war, the odds to pass to final are higher
Shock NQ for me would be Czechia for sure, the nf performance was way out of sync, if they don't clean it up they're gone. My q's are Serbia, Malta, Sweden, Finland, Netherlands, Moldova, Portugal, Azerbaijan , Croatia and Latvia. I dont need to see Norway, Czechia, Israel, Ireland or Switzerland again sorry not sorry
Thank you for Norway and Isreal. It's beyond me how grown up man (or any male, for that matter) can connect with any of the 2, let alone obsessing over them.
@@igortirkajla8042 Norway is childish and exhausting to listen to and israel is nonsensical drivel, kind of embarassed for fans of these 2
Norway is overrated for sure. The live performance wasnt even that good and the song is generic, very overdone by Eurovision standards. The only reason it will likely pass cause its Norway and vote brigading, not necesserily cause the song is good.
Great video Tom, as always!
Thank you 🥰
Let's just all vote for Latvia 20 times :)
Maybe next year…
I love these videos are so much, you're quickly becoming my favorite ESC RUclipsr. I can't believe you're under 10k subs!
Thanks Tappy! 🥰
Yea this is my first proper season where ive been able to get videos out in time. My previous seasons all my videos were usually very late cos of my work.
Great analysis that of course deserves a thumb up! 👍 It all makes sense to me what you said and how you ranked the entries. Well done and thanks a lot for all the work and effort you put into this. 👏 About the televotes from „rest of the world“: of course they will be presented all together, but will there be a possibility to see from which countries the votes came from in the end? I think it would be interesting to know in which parts of the world Eurovision attracts people.
im not sure, but i REALLY hope so cos i think that would be absolutely fascinating to see how different countries resonate with which entries. I am pretty sure they will release the details eventually
@@ESCTom Willing to know whether Spanish-speaking America approves of Blanca Paloma. I suppose they will prefer Loreen or Noa.
I love Portugal 🇵🇹 ❤❤
I can't wait to hear your opinion about 2nd semi-final qualifiers❤
just picking my 10 now
@@ESCTom I'm really interested in hearing your opinion about Poland's chances to qualify, cause I've been watching Eurovision for years, and I don't remember someone as hated by public (and by their own country at the 1st place) as Blanka now. Will this scandal burry her? We'll see
@@ESCTom do you know when the video will drop ?
I think it’s interesting that people think Croatia won’t qualify, for me it’s almost a sure qualifier. Not because I like it or anything lol
Great video.
Thank you Matija 🥰
Finland deserves the whole thing. Sadly not always does the best song win. (Coughs) loreen
i gotta agree with your prediction, it’s the same as mine :)) but i hope latvia finds its way through somehow, i’ll be heartbroken otherwise 😭
Germany, France and Italy are voting in this semi so Switzerland should get some points by default. Plus switzerland is like the only real esc ballad in this semi. So I think Switzerland has more chances to qualify compared to the netherlands. But it really depends on who gets the later spot in the running order.
Netherlands have nordics and Ireland
SERBIA GO IN FINAL, AND IN TOP 5 IN FINAL
Moldova is my favourite in this semi so really hope they Q they should do. An American reacting to the Semi 1 songs had the most positive reaction to Pasha and Loreen.
will you do another analysis of the My Eurovision Scoreboard changes since the last songs were released? would be really looking forward to it 😊
Love the Country Buttons btw, they look dope!!
Yeah definitely I'm working on the script and the statistics today so I'll have it by tomorrow
MY FAVOURITE VIDEOSSSS
I have a feeling that Malta will be able to sneak into the final. Generally speaking, the public goes for rhythmic, up-beat songs. I think both The Netherlands and Switzerland are at risk of non-qualification, given that they are not outstanding songs within their own genres anyways
Switzerland is a great song and I’d love it to go through.
Malta won’t qualify it’s terrible.
And I’d be happy to see Netherlands fall short since it’s a little beige for me
I still feel like Czechia is a likely qualifier. I agree that Vesna's national final performance wasn't the best, but I think that had more to do with the low budget nature of ESCZ and the bad stage than with their actual ability as performers. Obviously they need to improve, but Czechia has had a good recent record with staging (in my opinion at least) and I've seen some of their preparations from their Instragram which look like they're going to more closely mirror the music video. And plus being in the second half in a semi-final where only 5 countries get eliminated certainly doesn't hurt either.
Live performance can make a lot of difference, even if the song was meh/great in Music Video format.
I really hope Malta gets through 🙏🏻🇲🇹
it's a really fun dancing song 🎷🎤🥁🪩🕺🎉 and let's all be honest we all feel better in our sweater 😅❤
Great video and analysis, I reckon all these countries apart from Ireland and maybe Azerbaijan would qualify from Semi 2, I think if Malta who I fear might just miss out were in Semi 2 it would nearly be a dead cert.
Random thought, long term if televote only semi stays will be interesting to see if the big 5 do better with Jury than qualifiers as with not having worry about qualifying they can enter a more Jury bait song were as qualifiers would have had to try enter something with Televoting appeal.
yea thats a good point, that definitely could happen re big 5. tbh the televote is pretty fair, like good songs from any genre usually make it through.
Agree with Malta, i think it would QF from SF2
Malta has always struggled with the televote so I think with the new system they’re not going to qualify this year
Thanks..go Portugal 🇵🇹🇵🇹🇵🇹
Moi : Suède/Finlande/Norvège/Serbie/Azerbaïdjan/Israël/Moldovie/Pays Bas/Suisse/Tchéquie
Hurray for the magnets! You got a new one for Malta, with the coat of arms?
I can totally agree with this analysis. For my home country it is indeed the most risky year since Anouk (I was sure about the NQ in 2015), but I feel that they will stand out enough. Not a huge fan of the song but when I listen to all songs of the semi they always draw my attention.
I'll probably throw my votes towards Portugal and Latvia to make them qualify.
yes i did, as you remembered, the last one was basically just poland so i ordered a remake, i also optimistically ordered a new Slovakia one while i was there 😭
@@ESCTom well if that doesn't convince the Slovak broadcaster to return, I don't know what will!
Way better now ❤🇵🇹
Love ❤ Cha Cha Cha 🎉🇫🇮🇫🇮🇫🇮
I predicted the exact same qualifiers! I wasn’t really sure if I see Croatia or Latvia in the final but I decided to go with Croatia as well
Recently discovered your channel - I love your reviews! Keep it going!
Thanks Paul 🥰
Guys all contrys can vote❤ vote in Portugal 🇵🇹
Fridge Magnets are back! 🎉
Well, with Portugal it's already confirmed she'll be making improvements. She wants to keep the cabaret vibes of the performance but properly elevate it to the big stage at Liverpool and is already hard at work with plans. I'm also guessing the team behind the last 2 participations will be helping out to improve the staging.
If anything what will kill Portugal is the running order. They are almost guaranteed to be 2nd or 3rd. They need to separate the 4 bands and the two female voices in that half, there's no universe Norway won't be 6th/7th, for a myriad of obvious reasons, and it's pretty clear they'll open with Ireland/Malta, so that leaves Portugal having to land in those two spots to be able to better space out the acts. Also, guessing Croatia will be right next to it in RO and I'm betting that's more of a curse than a blessing.
I don't think Croatia will be right after Portugal or somesuch - both acts are in native language and as a producer you'd likely want to space those out between acts in English. ;) tbh I don't think getting spot 2 or 3 is necessarily bad for Portugal. Most acts in the first half aren't thát spectacular, with the exception of Norway.
Really interesting video! For sure we can say that the Scandinavian countries seem to have very strong songs, but could this maybe be a disadvantage for them? 3 strong songs from the same region if you choose only one??? I like Latvia the sound is quite different I would prefer them to go through instead of say Israel which I think is just a normal pop song, nothing special, but things can change in 2 months time maybe some of us will be sick of hearing the stronger songs and will actually vote something else.
in my Experience people don't really think like that. Plus considering that pop is the main music genre in the competition, the majority of songs that qualify will be from that genre
Love your videos and how analytical you are! Given the rest of world vote, does that mean we can vote in both semi-finals: the one where we are participating/Big 5/Host and the other as part of the rest of world vote?
Thanks Vithun.
No, from my understanding: being from IReland, I can vote in SF1 only. If I was still living in china though, i could vote in both SF as part of Rest of the world
It would be more accurate if you also use the televote rankings in the past years for comparison (since it's all televotes this year for sf)
yea ill see if i can do it for SF2 video. i was balking at the thought of having to go through 14 years of stats and there might be almost no difference
@@ESCTom Yea ik the thought of doing all that could be tiring haha... the difference will prob just be 2-3 songs ig
🚜🇭🇷🚀
Agree with the analysis! I agree with Switzerland, even though I really like the song, I do think it might not go through...
hello from.Ireland
No matter what the result, I just know I'm gonna be peeved that a really less competitive song from SF2 is going to take the place of one my top 20 this year.
Portugal ❤ Mimicat 😍🇵🇹
Tom. You should market the magnets.
ha i thought about it with the amount of requests, but id say it would be a total nightmare to get them shipped from China
Oh How I missed the magnets!!!! ❤
Love this analysis! Czechia is my top song this year ❤❤❤
I have the same li'l whiteboard at home. Cheap but handy.
Excellent analysis as always. At the moment, I have AZ, LV, MT, NL and HR out which means Ireland qualifies!
Yay, the return of the fridge magnets!
Perhaps you should start an import/export business in flag fridge magnets & ESC paraphernalia. You're in RoI, covering all of the EU & working together with someone in NI you got GB.
"I know how to hold this flag."
Proceeds to hold flag horizontal most of the time so it almost looks like the old Dutch flag; Oranje boven!(orange above)
And yes, i've learnt the difference between the flags of Côte d'Ivoire & Éire.
haha ill see, doing business is China is very cutthroat😅
Ery intresting video too watch m I do agree that Netherlands and Switzerland are risky I would put Serbia and Moldova as risking it , fingers crossed for my Malta
Yep. I agree with all of those qualifiers. I would be sad to see Latvia or Malta NQ but I think those songs just don't have the same appeal (especially Latvia which is a Grower rather than a showy song which will catch people's attention on the night).
Mimicat a Voz da Final ❤ Viva a Portugal 🎉.
Man.... I really want latvia to qualify.... It's such a good song.... I wouldn't mind if it kicked out Nederlands, don't really care much about that song....
Yeah, this seems accurate, but I will be Very upset to see Czechia and Latvia NQ. They're two of my favourite songs of the year. There's always at least one 😅
Here's an explanation about Severina comment. Let 3 were in Severina's Moja stikla video (ESC 2006). I was following Dora then and I don't remember anything about them being mentioned as back vocals. The guys that do sing and dance with Severina were from ensemble Lado and they were dancing parts of "Bunjevacko kolo". It was long time ago but I would definitely remember if they were supposed to be her backing vocals sinceI follow them for about 20 years.
ah ok thank you Damir for explaining it 👍🏻🙌🏻
@@ESCTom no problem. You're really doing a good job researching and making these videos, so anything to help a fellow true fan 😃
I think this year is easier to predict than last year barring some sort of wild happening
Switzerland is the best ballad this year, with the best lyrics, he's gonna qualify and not borderline
I absolutely love the magnets and I might cry if 🇨🇭 doesn't go through this has risen to my number 4 but my other 3 are definite qualifiers
oh wow i would not have called that that one would resonate with you
@@ESCTom love the lyrics aswell dont get the issue he's not advocating war he is literally saying that many of these soldiers do not want to be there as in Switzerland military service is mandatory
maybe having huge favorite in Sweden will actually lower amount of votes needed to qualify. it is very early to make most of predictions. I have Latvia as example with Triana Park or Ronela last year. even Austria last year. huge favorites who had bad live performances when it was important. In this light I am a bit worried for Czechia how will perform live. Serbia it seems can only have enhanced staging and better performance as Luke Black is an artist which showed only a part of him for national selection. Portugal perhaps? I wish they all can perform in the final. good luck
yes, having countries who get points from EVERYONE lowers the threshold for 10th place. The more spread out the points are, the more you need.
@@ESCTom that sounds as bad scenario for ballads this year
@@colinafobe2152absolutely. I believe that if Estonia was in SF1, they wouldn't qualify
@@ZvedeENG sadly yes
Hmm, you make some good points. Since most of the "bands" are in the first half, it's doubtful that all will qualify. I expect that possibly 1-2 bands will, and I think those will be Ireland possibly (Borderline) and Malta - I know these are not fan faves or anything, but comparing them to Croatia and Latvia they are more viewer-friendly and accessible. Latvia's song is mysterious and quite rocky near the end, whilst Croatia is just darn crazy and weird. Both of these will get niche voters but hardly ever enough to make it to the top of the lists.
I expect Norway ánd Portugal to go through, Norway is a Def YES, and Portugal I think is more artsy which will appeal to a different audience which is possibly larger than the rock fans or goof fans. In terms of native language songs it's either going to be Portugal or Croatia, not both..
In the second half there is a LOT going on. Sweden, Finland, Israel and Moldova I think are def YES qualifiers. That leaves Czechia, Netherlands, Switzerland, Serbia and Azerbaijan. Czechia is a fan fave, but personally I don't care much for it and I think the general public might not be charmed by their song either. Plus, given that they frankly have no neighbourial friends in this semi, I think CZ is a NQ. Serbia I think will make it through, though possibly borderline qualifier. That leaves Azer, NL and CH.
All three of those would be spaced out I think bcs they are all quite understated, ballady songs. I expect at least ONE ballad to make it through, since ballad lovers are also televoters. Netherlands has a good (jury-based) track record, and this year's song is a bit of a grower. Switzerland has been making waves in balladeering but were saved last year by juries, rather than televoters. In that light, I think Switzerland might have to bite the dust. NL ends up a borderline qualifier.
Azerbaijan is a bit of a wildcard. Normally, they are almost a sure qualifier. This year however, they've decided to send something different. Personally I like it, but I also notice that there are things about the song that I don't like as much. On top of this, Azerbaijan is the only country whose entry has to truly battle with both ballads as well as the uptempo songs, since it tries to be both. Hence, my prediction is that it may NQ.
My QFs: Ireland, Malta, Portugal, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Israel, Moldova, Serbia and Netherlands.
In the case I am wrong (which is likely), Malta might be replaced by Croatia and Netherlands by Switzerland or Azerbaijan.
some great points there
although i disagree about only 1 of Croatia or Portugal. I really dont think people at home care about foreign languages as an overlapping genre. from what ive seen from my Eurovision scoreboard stat videos, its that the main overlapping affecting each other seems to be music genre
@@ESCTom I meant that bcs Portugal and Croatia are in the same segment, it's more likely only one of these would qualify. I'm not a maths guy so I dunno if it is common or not, but that's just my gut feeling about it. :)
Portugal com Mimicat vai ser uma alegria e a eurovision vai estar de coração ❤cheio com Mimicat, Ai Coração ❤❤❤❤
Tom, can you explain how it is that we went from being the best at Eurovision in the 1990s to being utterly pants in the last decade?
Instead of expecting to win, it now would come as a surprise if Ireland 🇮🇪 actually made a Grand Final. What do we need to do differently?
The quality of the national final on the Late Late Show was generally amateurish and atrocious in fairness.
Hey Gavin, I went into quite a lot of detail about what is wrong here - ruclips.net/video/swRIkYA8FQ8/видео.html and to a lesser extent here
ruclips.net/video/oDqxpkSv-EI/видео.html
Not every country have the same rules with voting. In my country (Denmark) we can only vote one time per song. So the idea that you can vote twenty times for the same song to help it get through isn't neccesarily true for all participating countries.
Some countries can also use the ESC app, but that, again, isn't true for Denmark (unless our broadcaster change it up this year, but I highly doubt it). Maybe it's because Greenland and the Faroe Islands vote with us that they have different rules here. Who knows. 🤷
Anyway, my point was that not all countries have the 20 votes rule, so you can't necessarily count on that in your analysis. 🙂
Ah thats interesting, i just looked it up on the official website.
"Viewers can submit their vote by phone call, SMS or via the official app. They can vote up to 20 times. Voting tariffs are set by each Participating Broadcaster and will be presented on screen during the shows. *Exceptions may apply due to differences in national legislation*"
I had no idea that existed. Do you know if its just Denmark or any other countries?
@@ESCTom I don't, as I've only ever lived in Denmark. I've heard that some countries only have phone call votes, but that might just have been a rumor and/or no longer the case. I only know for certain that it's different in Denmark. Our speaker always start talking over the hosts when they explain the rules for how to vote, saying we can ignore what they are saying as the rules are different for us.