as a ukrainian, if we give our 12 points to poland (for obvious reasons) i'll be very disappointed. what gives me hope is that jann is currently going utterly viral on our social media so some people will definitely remember him and poles asking not to vote for poland because of the riggery. also i see similar reactions that rafał got in 2021, after all, the diaspora & neighbour countries actually need to like the song (and what's more important, the context behind the entry and the artist) to vote for it.
Unfortunately, many viewers are unaware of the context of Polish pre-selection, Blanka’s video is one of the most reviewed and disliked, yes, but dislikes are hidden from view by youtube. I’ve already met opinions like wow, Poland’s song is so popular🙃 and the girl is beauty. It may actually qualify and all the mess around Polish entry may even promote it🫤 Sure, I’ll be disappointed in this case, particularly when TVP keeps silence, pretending everything’s fine.
I go to the comments trying to find an Estonia 🇪🇪 fan, but it's been hard, so I'll come out and say I've got Estonia as number 2/3 (swapping positions with Norway). Honestly I listened to this song so many times on repeat when the songs for Eesti Laul came out. Also her voice is incredible, as detailed exquisitely by Honest Vocal Coach. I don't see this not making Top 5 in this semi final and hope it reaches Top 10 in the final. Honestly underrated song by community and odds, that should do well in the competition!!!
As a Polish person, I don't expect a big diaspora support. I feel like any person that checks Polish news websites & social media circles has probably heard about this. Weeks after the NF, I feel like the atmosphere has cooled down, the locals most likely forgot about it for now, but the enthusiasm is not there. Come May, they'll probably remember what our 💞beloved💞 broadcaster did. However, I feel like she still has a chance for votes from abroad IF she manages to improve her vocals and the whole performance (staging, choreo etc.) will go through a massive upgrade (with the team we have I'm not sure what to expect tbh, it could still be dreadful😅). The thing in her favour is that this semi doesn't have any girl bops and not many upbeat songs in general. I'm also really rooting for Romania 🇷🇴. I might cast a few votes for him if the staging is good 'cause I really enjoy the song and have a soft spot for theatre kids 😅
Really hoping Iceland and Romania make it to the final, Dilja has some amazing vocal range and all Theodor has to do is fix that staging, when he was performing all by himself I was honestly blown away
As a Pole, I've noticed most people (of all age groups) who are active on social media/the internet are aware of the what has happened during the NF. I can honestly say younger people are not going to vote for Blanka, but unfortunately a lot of older people like the song and defend it (mostly people who enjoy listening to disco polo and people who only care about having a pretty girl on the stage). Honestly I will be very disappointed if the song qualifies :(
It's really humorous to me how Reiley has really dominated the "young" vote conversation when he was actually born the same year as Andrejs (Latvia vocalist), La Zarra (allegedly), Mae, and Jimoh (Ukraine vocalist). AND he's older than Victor, Theodor, Alessandra, Alika, Diljá, Remo, Brunette, Noa, Iru, Tural and Turan (Azerbaijan), Kārlis (Latvia drummer), Mārtins (Latvia drummer), Blanka, Bojan (Slovenia vocalist), Kris (Slovenia guitarist), Jan (Slovenia guitarist), Andrew, both Teya and Salena, and Albina. Wow.
That's because he's like me.... I'm in my mid thirties but you would think I'm about 28-30 I'm sure..... also I'm an introvert he's an introverted type of a person either.... but on the stage of pre-parties it's more seen he's older.
My predictions very rarely work out, but I'm putting Estonia as a dark horse. I think they'll bring a really strong package to Eurovision and the ballad community will eat it up. It's got some powerhouse competition, but I believe in the power of the little guy!
Great to see not only your well researched and knowledgeable analysis, but also to see you so actively responding to comments. One thing I can maybe add is experience of seeing Voyager live for 20 years - I can guarantee that they will bring it! Super competent live; excellent musicianship and full of energy. Shame that instruments aren't played live, that would definitely sort things out in Voyager's favour!
I hope you are right, I just love that song (and I was born in Australia so a bit biased but other years the Australian songs havent convinced me much) 😅
thank you for still having hope for romania😭🙏 i honestly think that this is one of the best songs we have sent lately, and theodor is such a great guy! i'm really considering voting this year since i live in the netherlands now, i really want him to go through to the final😅
well since I did this video, i heard that hes training 7 hours a day right now and he's got a big show planned. So im hoping that he will be one of the rehearsals that will make him go up in the odds
I reckon he's the most underrated song of the season. I really liked his song when it came out and his performance before 'the mess' was very charismatic and focused on himself.
@@ESCTom Yes, he did say in an interview they're rehearsing 7-8 per day, I heard him. Now, maybe not every day, but he is working hard according to what I've been able to gather.
Tom you are the best Eurovision commentator and analyst. Period. So thoughtful and really able to separate personal taste from your predictions. And Amen to the gym comment 😆
As someone who likes Icelands entry, it's 99.9% because I like Diljas energy and find her breath control super impressive. Hearing the singers breath a lot is basically one of my pet peeves, and Diljas manages to keep her breath out of the mic while moving around quite a bit. I just gotta respect that lol And if they stage it right, I think it could get that "girl power" appeal that I don't think any other entry here has. So maybe that's a bit of a plus for her. And I also hope Romania gets through. The staging was bad, but the song is okay and I find Andrei so impressive for someone so young.
yea like iceland will hopefully look completely different than it did in the national final because those visuals really dated the song for me. Whereas if it had like a much more innovative or modern stageing concept it could completely change how I view this song personally. so im hoping they elevate this massively
I would say 'definite yes' for Slovenia because those guys ALREADY have a staging concept and GREAT live energy. I have seen some clips of Brunette live and she seems to be more of a rapper than a singer so it could be a borderline yes. With Cyprus, it's more a borderline or likely yes since Andrew is still having problems singing live. There's still a problem there that the song could be dragged down by. As we saw in Australia decides, Voyager have the most experience out of most bands this year and the song is great with many things for different people, as well as the connection that they have live with working class and middle class people, meaning it's definite yes. We know they staging can be amazing and it will only be elevated from last year since this is Eurovision. Denmark has a HUGE following meaning that the worldwide televote will give him the most support and as a zoomer, i can really relate to the song - watch him improve the staging and vocals live. With Iceland, the British will support the song as it's the kind of thing we like and whist the song is weaker, Dija is a great performer. We will have to see those live. If Syster can qualify, Dija can qualify. I'd say Denmark is borderline or likely yes and this will surprise people, whilst Iceland is borderline yes or borderline no for me. Lithuania is ANOTHER song that is being slept on. I think a lot of young people will support the song, especially women who can relate to the song - another one that can resonate with the British. I personally think it would have been a 100% definite yes if the jury were involved but because of that i'd say a likely yes or borderline yes. For me, it trumps Belgium in terms of a great vocals with vocal accompaniment piece. Estonia's song will wow people - it's definitely the best ballad of this year and the Estonian reaction will be the Eurovision reaction. Romania's Theodor is amazing but the staging will be improved. He needs to have pyro and tons of lighting performances at the end, like portugal's stage show - if it's like the previous performance of Theodor, it could be a borderline yes. I think he'll connect with the audience with his voice. I think Albania's song will go down well in the family shows and a lot of ordinary people who aren't part of the fanbase of Eurovision who are on their own. The song is about unifying the family and encouraging love (hence the name 'duje') which COULD resonate with the people. Albina WON'T be bringing her family so the staging will be much better. I would say a borderline no or borderline yes. I think the music video changed my perception of this. It's got a better chance than last year. Poland could enrage the fandom by borderline qualifying as most people wont hear or frankly care about the story with the national final and Blanka WILL improve. There's definitely a bunch of slower songs in this semi final so Blanka COULD make the show more fun.
Alika stan reporting for duty! My favorite ballad of the year by far, I think/hope fans are quiet on it because it's been out forever. I know it's been discussed to death, but Jann would have been a definite qualifier from this semi. I don't think Blanka has a strong enough vocal or an interesting enough song.
omg yes Jann would have been 1000000000% yes. The polish disapora would have put him through, but he wouldnt have needed it. He would have been Top 3 in the semi easily
Alika is my #1 (despite having been an Ollie and M Els fan). If there is not enough buzz about her, it is because we are just waiting to see her blow the socks off the competition at the big stage. She has boatloads of charisma; I hope people get such vibe from her.
If Poland makes it to the final I'm gonna miss the juries im the SF. Imagine Sekret missing out on a spot in the final because of them and Solo advancing THANKS to their absence😢
You obviously have not checked the voting patterns. Greece has a lot of friendly countries in this semi that traditionally vote for them. Cyprus, Armenia( super friendly), Georgia(always), San Marino(always), Romania (always), Albania( they always vote for Greece). Moreover Victor is half Danish and Denmark is in this semi. If you do the math, hypothetically speaking, and after having seen the patterns, it is really difficult for Greece to not qualify. Statistically, Greece has many more countries that vote for them traditionally, rather than Cyprus. I am saying this because you already counted points from Australia to Cyprus, sth that should not be taken for granted. It is a very friendly semi for Greece. So my suggestion would be to put Greece to likely yes or borderline yes. If this is your personal taste, then it is fine, but if it is supposed to be an objective prediction, then it is likely wrong, at least for Greece.
I am Estonia kind of person! This song is amazing to me (although I might be already an older audience) - very emotional, sung perfectly, I hope it will go through! Well, Polish diaspora will probably not vote. IF (and I stress - IF, because I know it's not happening) US diaspora voted - they would vote for her a lot, because they follow TVP almost religiously (not all of them, of course, but most). BUT UK diaspora is a little bit different. Jann is trending on the Spotify charts there (And I wish him only the best, but I am pretty sure Polish diaspora had to do something with it :D ), they quite often disagree with TVP, so they are more conscious of the situation. And still - there are people that do like this song (in many countries), cause it is like a summer holiday bop for them. Blanka can't sing live. No matter the song - it will flop.
Also I love that you have never heard of a family band when to me, the most famous family band is the Kelly Family, which is from Ireland (but got big in Germany) 😂😂
@@ESCTom They did live in Ireland, for a while at least. Have you never heard of "Fell in love with an alien" & the other hits? That seems so unlikely, they were so HUGE. Also, no Irish family band? Clannad with Enya would like to have a word!
Slight correction with Australia at 15.50 - the UK are voting in semi 2 :) I mostly agree with you but semi 2 is so open, I could see pretty much anyone qualifying! It'll come down to giving a great performance. I personally love Iceland and Denmark - I would love for this to be the first year since 2014 where we have all the nordics!
I really really support Theodor despite The Mess, the song is actually really good and that sultry rocky jazzy feel has a nieche in Romania with Mihail and Jean Gavril, look them up, he's not just messing around in the ether, just because we are all blinded by The Mess it doesn't mean it's a bad song and that he is a bad singer. I would not be surprised if we don't qualify after the hate, but I really love Theo and I loved him from the beggining.
I think Greece is borderline qualifier. They have the easiest draw with all their voting allies able to vote in this semi, they have 30-40 points locked in at this point. With good staging, they are picking up some lower top 10 points, so reaching the 50-60 points required for qualification. Also, I just don't think it's a song that the fandom appreciates, but I can see the general public liking it much more.
Hoping Diljá, Iru and Joker Out deliver and all three enter. Iceland really gives me the same vibes i felt with Med Haekkandi Sól when nobody thought they could get in and they did at the end! Also Slovenia being so low on the betting odds is really weird, how is a song on the 30th place there but on every single ranking i've seen they get top 10, i just dont get it. (They just got up to 23rd, nice!) And Georgia really needs to qualify, hoping it gives them the push they need and start delivering! Great video!
Unless she drastically improves her live singing, I (born in Poland living in Germany)would not understand who would vote for someone so bad at live singing. Not even the majority of Poles living outside of Poland , would vote for someone like her. Brooke+Pia Maria didn't have the best live vocals last year and even if the jury would not have been there they wouldn't have made it to the grand final because they didn't get enough votes from the public
It's so hard to predict this semi final. Everything can happen and I think 21-26th in the final all will be from this semi final and maybe 1 direct finalist. My predictions: I think will qualify 100% 🇸🇮 Slovenia (will probably close the semi and has potential to win this semi) 95% 🇬🇪 Georgia (I think the staging will be really good and remarkable, has potential to be the best ever result of Georgia) 95% 🇦🇲 Armenia (The singer is really good and she knows how to present it, I feel like they will stage this epic) 90% 🇦🇹 Austria (If it was just about the song a sure qualifier but Austria is not famous with staging. If they stage bad this can flop so badly just like last year. But these singers seems like they know what they are doing so I feel confident about Austria this year) 90% 🇱🇹 Lithuania (A sure qualifier for me, it will be big with juries in the final. Lithuania always does so well with televote. I don't understand why people underestimate the potential of this song) 80% 🇩🇰 Denmark (Cmon Denmark did with less, this is perfect for younger generation and there is a big amount of votes coming from this age range) 70% 🇦🇺 Australia (My only concern is that it is just televote based semi but I see them qualifying this year. I am also sure that the end of the staging of this song will be a moment with all those lights) 60% 🇨🇾 Cyprus (They are so lucky that they are in this semi. Same with Greece they also have Georgia, Armenia and Albania loves to vote for them too and Australia will give some points too for sure) 55% 🇦🇱 Albania (From here it is so hard to predict. Everyone is borderline yes/no in this semi. They are the only ethnic song in this semi but I still see them making through) 55% 🇬🇷 Greece (They will qualify just because I think points from Cyprus, Albania, Georgia, Armenia, Denmark (the guy is half danish), UK and maybe Belgium will be enough for them no matter the staging) I think won't qualify %45 🇪🇪 Estonia (Just here because other countries are able to do better in just televote semi) %40 🇧🇪 Belgium (If this qualifies I wouldn't be shocked at all. It is just last year Israel didn't qualify and it is kinda same vibe) %40 🇵🇱 Poland (If this qualifies I wouldn't be shocked as well but this year Polish diaspora won't be there voting for her) %35 🇮🇸 Iceland (In televote unfortunately I just see she is getting forgotten and I love this song :( %5 🇷🇴 Romania (It is not strong enough to qualify) %0 🇸🇲 San Marino (Just no) I'm sorry for the long comment when I start I can't stop 😂 Love these detailed videos
16 is not too young to go to Eurovision. Nadav Guedj performed amazingly for Israel in 2015 with "Golden Boy". I was shocked to discover he was only16; he acted like a true pro.
Well this is interesting, in Italy if you are under 18 you cannot perform or show yourself on TV after midnight, so its a problem for example Sanremo that goes on for 4 Hours! Difficult for a minor to partecipate. In fact Mr Rain who came third had kids singing with him, in the final performance they were not there! I thought maybe Eurovision had a similar rule?
I think this semi will have 2 shocking qualifiers, romania being one of them because if he made some changes (such as wearing a nice suit, having a dark coloured backdrop, dropping the backing vocals), the song in itself is not terrible (also diaspora), and probably albania because of the diaspora and because of the family element. I think only one of the baltics will get through and im afraid or austria pulling a 2022 2.0, where the studio version is loved by everyone but the staging and live vocals dont make the most sense. edit: actually since spain, uk and ukraine are voting that semi, i think romania and poland will benefit from that a lot. sorry albania, but theres already so many bands this semi
My early prediction for this semi: Definite YES: Austria, Australia, Cyprus Likely YES: Armenia, Estonia, Georgia, Lithuania, Slovenia Borderline YES: Iceland, Poland Borderline NO: Albania, Belgium, Denmark, Greece Definite NO: Romania, San Marino Rooting for my Borderline Nos to get better ofc, there's still time.
I vote Poland down because she can't sing live, I doubt she can improve it that much until the ESC happens. I (born in Poland, living in Germany) loved Ochman last year (he had a great voice) and now they're sending her to ESC? It looks like Poland have not anyone who can sing better. I think it's a shame for the Polish people to have someone like her representing Poland, even if they don't know anything about the scandal and live abroad
For me, the only ones I care about qualifying are Australia, Slovenia and Estonia (I have apparently not talked about it a lot but I think it's great!). All three of them stand out so much and offer such great quality, they're head and shoulders above the rest in this semi. Tbh, the rest all leave me quite indifferent. Even Austria who everybody seems smitten with; I think it's a good and fun song, but don't really care what happens to it. You know already that I don't like Georgia (I think it will qualify though), and Cyprus... it's a good song and he's yummy, but that's about all there is to it. I agree with you 9/10; the only difference is that I think Greece will qualify and Poland won't. Poland's song is absolutely dire, so I don't think she stands a chance even in this semi and even with people not knowing the back story. And Greece's song is decent enough.
I'll only watch SM1, because I feel hate song Solo. of course, I don't want to see Poland in the final. hmm... oddsach is 12 (NQ), but 50/50 %. Disco polo is as unloved as it is loved. She is planning to dance break - no comment. My Q: Australia, Estonia, Slovenia...
As a Pole I really really hope Blanka won't qualify 😥 Its been so long since preselections but Im still angry and disappointed. I hope we take some actions to raise awareness about what happened so less people would vote for Poland like some Twitter hashtags. But it still doesn't change the fact that most of the eurovision viewers are just unreachable. I think that most Poles abroad want to vote for their country no matter what song is sent. As much as it hurts I agree that our chance of qualifying is huge and I cant wait for the news on TVP how we achieved an international success thanks to them😡 Anyway there are so many great songs so Im gonna move on somehow😂 Great video as always👌
@@ESCTom yeah, that is exactly whats gonna happen. They already stated blanka receives a lot of the hate from their opposition and it's because opposition is jelaous / angry they are not in charge. They won't care second semi final is nowhere near as good as the first one so even the most trash song might qualify if some lucky shit happens. Anyway she just can't qualify, there is just no way she can
I have put poland through based on excatly what you have said 😂 Unfortunately majority of people won't know about the controversy. It's so insulting considering Poland cheated last year in the semi finals. Hence the reason why no jury voting in the semis this year.
I'm Polish and I almost feel like we don't have a representative this year, weird feeling, kinda like in 2021 but worse. I hope that TVP won't be in the final but I wouldn't count them off. There will be a revamp, I also have a feeling that she will sound a bit better at ESC because sound mixing in our national final was terrible. When it comes to the staging I'm pretty sure that her music label will put a lot of money into it. Diaspora tho? I doubt that she will get many points from them. she has the same reputation as Rafał, both are perceived as TVP pupils, both aren't good vocally ...
Disregarding the nf rigging, Solo is a bad song. It sounds boring and like its from 2017, she cant sing the song (despite it being a really easy song), the performance needs a lot of work because its a complete mess
@@ESCTom While I agree that the mixing was bad, watching other performances of the song (which she's been doing for the last four months) it doesn't sound particularly good in any of them. The Polish diaspora seems to also be very vocal about the NF rigging. But I still do agree that this could be a very unfortunate shock qualifier
Polish jurors satisfied with such an assessment of the representative of TVP? You should sink into the ground, in a country of 40 million, choose such a mediocrity. Shame , stop corruption !!!!!!!!
I highly doubt poland will qualify, her vocals in the national final were probably some of the worst i have seen in the past 10 years for eurovision its absolutely atrocious
@@ESCTom she even sounds badly with full playback and good sounding, the only why to improve that is to give her strong backing vocalist who would sing louder then she: ruclips.net/video/R_NE6SllqRs/видео.html Still I can’t believe they chose her, the whole NF was so weak, even though no professional juror would have do that. Dominik, Alicja, Jann, Felivers were simply better.
I agree with 9 out of 10, only picking Iceland instead of Denmark. But my personal pick for the last spot would be Denmark over Poland, even though I'm Polish. And also, Australia needs to close the 2nd semi. It's a great closing song. It would be also a great choice for the closing spot in the final, far better than the UK. If it's in the 1st half it would also be a great pick for the opening spot, so similar to Czechia last year. :)
Austria, Slovenia, Cyprus & Australia are the only 4 definite qualifiers, imo. Greece should also go through (Cyp, Arm, Geo, SanM, Rom, Alb traditionally vote for them). All the rest will struggle to go through.
I could see Greece qualifying personally. At least in terms of style, the song stands out in the semi (especially if it has a good placement - I could see either this or Iceland closing the first half) and for me the song has that acoustic pop charm. The song is a huge Grower personally and I could see eurovisionfans warming up to the song ahead of the show. Plus, he's a cute 16 year old boy. Teenage girls will vote for this. The way I see it is, if Sweden can come 5th with 'If I Were Sorry' back in 2016, why can't this do just as well. 'If I Were Sorry' was a weak song in a very strong final, and it still did great (yes, it was Sweden and they were hosting, so they had a lot going for them). 'What They Say' is arguably a much better song so it has every chance to also do well.
one thing ill say about "If I were sorry" is that despite the fact I didnt really enjoy the song, it was very successfully commercially. It was actually one of the Eurovision songs I heard played the most when I lived in China. I dont think Greeces song is as good, but yea ill keep an eye on this one. It had a very frosty reception, but general public might receive it better
@@ESCTom The radio I listen to here in Slovenia plays 3 songs over and over again. If I were sorry(sick and tired of hearing it at this point tbh), calm after the storm and sometimes euphoria. Also Rosa linn but she is more current.
Maybe it's wishful thinking, but Estonia is going to outperform Lithuania to the degree that Lithuania won't qualify. Alika is a contender for best singer this season, and she might soak up points from Lithuania and Iceland, who also don't seem to rely on overwhelming visuals (which is how Armenia and Georgia are going to qualify). I also really want Romania to qualify because it's a good coming-of-age song, which is an uncommon theme for Eurovision. A cleaner stage (does he really need four scarcely dressed dancers?), with Theodor as the main attraction will elevate the song for sure. Belgium might be a shock qualifier (never underestimate the power of a positive party vibe like last year's Moldova) or hit rock bottom with Poland and San Marino (who can actually perform, it's just the song that is jarring), there is no middle ground there.
i cannot stand the greek song, but i can see it qualifying just on the neighborly voting alone. cyprus easy 12 (which is used to calculate san marino's televote), the greek albanian diaspora, plus the historic connections with georgia and armenia. someone did a stat breadown of how lucky everyone got with the draw, and greece and cyprus ended up with the best assortment of countries BY FAR
Hi Tom. I'm new to your channel and loving it. I can't believe I have watched Eurovision all these years and didn't think to check out RUclips 🙃 keep up the great work, love from Australia - Go Voyager! 🇦🇺💖
Tom I've just found your channel and really like it, (first year I've gotten into NF season lol) but I really, really hope that you're wrong about Poland and Denmark qualifying as they are my bottom two songs! 😂
Thank you 🙏🏻 If theres one thing true I can tell you about SF qualifiers, it's that youll never get your top 10. Its never happened to me once since 2008. So we're pretty guaranteed that either Poland or Denmark will qualify now 😂
@@ESCTom Truth be told I at the very least somewhat enjoy every song in SF2 apart from them two and Cyprus so fingers crossed! I really hope Romania cleans up their staging because that's the song which I really like which has the highest chance of NQ'ing. My other favourites Austria, Slovenia and Australia are basically locks or at least 70% there in my mind. 🤣
Diljas' voice is enough of a reason for them to qualify! She'll make it, I don't understand why odds aren't in her favour. A wonderful performer it really saves the song.
I'd switch Iceland and Denmark tbh because Breaking my Heart just didn't sound good live And I think Estonia could be a shock non Qualifier because there are no Jurys in the semi Final
I feel like no song in this semi is more sure than the other to qualify. It is just so open! I think those that have an edge already is Cyprus with getting 12 from Greece and potentially also Albania and Australia. Slovenia because they just have such a charisma and stage present that they are definitely going to spellbound so many. Denmark because Reiley alone being Faroese will give him top points from Iceland and maybe also the UK in the form of the Scottish since I believe they have a sort of friendship with the Faroese (though I could be wrong) and the rest of the world vote if the South Koreans come through. Australia is going to stand out big time. And as much as it hurts to say, Poland probably has a chance too because Ukraine is voting in the semi. Austria seems obvious too, but I have to see how their staging will be before I chose to believe they'll go through 100% cause it can get messy quit easily if they do it wrong.
Agree with almost all you say. I don’t think there’s a connection between faroe and Scotland though, and scotlands population is quite a small % of the UKs population
The first semi-final has more potential top 10 songs in the final, the second final has more potential qualifiers. I think both Iceland (really lovely performance where you see her enthusiasm) and Denmark (demographic that could stan if he performs good) could go through. Why choose between those? The Poland story about the National Final seems pretty big with the amount of views for Jann + comments under the video of Blanco
Here's my analysis !! Definite yes - Austria, Slovenia, Lithuania & Belgium I am 99.9% sure that Belgium is finishing in the top 5 of this semi, especially if Gustaph opens the show Likely yes - Armenia, Australia, Georgia & Cyprus This is the most sure I've felt about Georgia qualifying in a WHILE Borderline yes - Greece & Estonia For some reason I feel like Greece will have enough support in this semi to qualify in 10th, but only if the staging is right. Otherwise it's out for sure Borderline no - Albania ...in case Greece doesn't qualify Likely no - Denmark, Iceland, Poland, Romania I actually love Power but I don't think people are gonna vote for it. I feel like there's always going to be *at least* one song that people like more Definite no - San Marino You're done.
Why doesn’t Lithuanian entry receive the same energy as Poland this year? Monika Linkyte did NOT win the public vote and is going to Liverpool because the jury put her first and she ALSO had friends and co-writers in the jury. Not many people know this but that is also not fair. The ratio between the 1st and the 2nd place wasn’t as massive as in Poland but it doesn’t matter as she wasn’t the one who won the public vote.
I’ve already spoken about it on other videos. Lithuania has always had the jury wins tiebreaker rule. I agreed that there shouldn’t be members of the jury who have connections with some contestants in the future, because it makes the competition look unfair
@@ESCTom yes I know you already spoke about and it was a very good video, I’m just mad about the unfairness when the jury is sending whatever they want and not what people want 😂
@ESC Tom I like you and your content, I get jealous and mad when you like things I don't like 😁 so, sometimes, I leave comments revealing my slight disappointment, but always love is there deep inside ❤️
The polish song is actually an alright song that under normal circumstances would be likely to go through in a semi as weak as semi 2. The problem is the backstory of the rigged national final that hangs over her, and also the fact that she cannot sing and literally talks her way through the whole song.
I just hope Just HOPE that poland gets a non qualifier this year. Even if the situation of the polish selection didnt happen, the song is pretty much radiotrash. Its lame, basic, and feels like its generated by AI
Okay, I agreed 100% with your prediction for Semi-Final 1, but this one, it ain't it for me. Greece has 12 points guaranteed by Cyprus and also Albania, Armenia, San Marino, Slovenia and Denmark (where Victor's dad is from) are all voting in this semi. You gotta really believe that Greece is not gonna receive any points from any other countries to argue that Greece might not get through, and it will still be borderline because they're gonna get about 35 points only from the countries I mentioned. Amanda did really bad with the televote on average last year (she finished in the bottom 5 of I think 12 or 14 countries) but she still got 12 points from Albania, 8 from Slovenia and 7 from San Marino (in the final)
@@mennmenn7428 You wanna tell me that people in Albania and Slovenia went crazy for Die Together while they're gonna hate What They Say? Furthermore, the fans' opinion about a song, especially before the rehearsals, doesn't determine its fortune. We've seen that in several occasions before. It's geopolitics and preferential vote what I was talking about to begin with. Voting patterns. And with this allocation draw Greece is close to qualification only with the votes of their voting allies. I don't think that anything lower than 11th place is mathematically possible. When it comes to quality, hands down I don't understand your complaint. Maybe Amanda's song was more direct because it has a more instant hook but I think that Victor's song has an equal level of quality (if not higher). Personal taste let it be, but is it quality we're talking about?
Greece will not get 12 points from those countries and if it does, it's high time that ESC gets cancelled. The Greek song is so weak that there is no way it deserves to qualify.
@@GianniDN I didn't say it's gonna get 12 points from all these countries. I said that it will get enough points from them to reach close to qualification zone and if it gets a few points from the rest of the countries (maybe around 10-15 points) it's gonna be enough for it to qualify. Just because you don't like a song or several people don't like it doesn't mean neither that it's weak not that it doesn't deserve to qualify. We will see how it goes in May.
Regarding casual viewers not knowing about Poland's national final: What if the commentators hint about it? They are not allowed to say anything negative about any entry, but the Swedish presenters are always giving shade to someone. I don't know about other countries though.
Last year Cyprus had a great song too band singer could not sin live on stage. Same happened to Romania in 2021. Those yeses could dip down in a blink of an eye
yea its possible. ive seen Andrew sing live a few times now though and hes a good singer. i think they also will have learned from their mistakes from last year
@@ESCTom Probably the world's most famous family band, and Irish! The name is derived from "family" of course! But I guess largely before your time. You'll surely be familiar with one of the family, Enya?
I think Gustaph can get the gay vote in the second semi-final. There's no other explicitly queer song in this semi-final and the lyrics really strongly resonate with LGBT identity. Could be enough to capture a fair amount of votes from enough countries
i think he just needs to bring the voguing from onto the stage! i was quote disappointed to see his live w out the dancers there (ik it was on the screen but it wasnt v impactful there), but hes clearly a strong singer so if he brings the camp staging for the competition i think he'll do well
It would be fantastic to see austria and slovenia back in the final and georgia I was like wtf at first but now I'm more like she snapped when she said "thing is known" so now I need it to go through. I have a feeling that greece will squeeze in but I hope my bejbe Blanka stays in the semis where she belongs, even thought that might be kinda krejsy
Definite NQ are Poland and San Marino, most likely Romania too, even though I’m one of his few fans lol. Albania too, although I really like the family vibe. That leaves one NQ spot, which I think will be between Greece, Belgium, Iceland and maybe Australia….although I really hope not, they’re one of my favourites. Denmark will quite likely get through, kids will vote for that.
im super excited to see what the running order will look like later, because right now i really cant call this semi at all. apart from a couple, i could see any of the countries in or out atm
The most famous family bands in the world: The Corrs from Ireland... also maybe The Kelly family, an Irish/American Group. Actually if you watch TG4 at all, you'll see loads of family bands. Not that uncommon in Ireland. Having said that Albania won't qualify with that song. Way too niche or not niche enough to do well.
I'm sorry but Iceland is definitely qualifying. the semi for me it's rather weak and open field, the one I like out of the semi are actually in my top 10; in descending order: Belgium "10", Denmark "9", Greece "6" and Iceland "3". for comparison 5 of the songs out of this semi are in my bottom 10. the rest I would like to see live.
I think with poland if it was the studio version it'd still struggle to get through as it's so basic but her live was so messy I got second hand embarrassment so I think even if people don't now about the rigging they still won't vote for it. and for belgium i do like him as a person but I can't really stand the song so i won't mind him getting through as long as he doesn't take iceland's place (love u dilja)
really hope Poland is NQ. Jann was stitched up. Shocking. Greece has its worst song in years. In this really weak semi, only song I see as top ten in final so far is Austria.
@@ESCTom Unlikely. The diaspora did not vote for Rafał in 2019, and he was only a bad singer. Blanka is a bad singer and a face of a huge corruption scandal. Poles abroad will not vote for her. I certainly wouldn't vote for her (I'm based in a country that votes in the 1st semi).
Thing with Solo, since the semis are all televote, I feel like all the die hard Eurofans won't vote for Poland just out of spite for the whole situation
Why the hell is alot against Denmark?!. And its like that EVERY Year! Stop it!. Its a good song. Its a weak semi-final. Denmark should go through. I Do agree its gonna be like a Borderliner. So 10,9 or 8th. Thanks Tom for believe in us.
For me it's a blatant attempt to court the K-Pop market and the voicecoder thing plus the fact that Reiley lied about being 20 (he is actually 25) just means that I find it really...manufactured, which is the opposite of what Eurovision is all about. I'm sure Reiley is a good guy but this song I just find personally irritating on many levels 🤷♂️
Iceland is my #1 in this semi (not that that says much) - I think I have it as #1 more so for Dilja and not really for the song at all. She’s an insane performer and her voice is killer. Can’t see someone with her stage prowess not qualifying from such a weak semi
Yesssssss, come through bloopers! I was hoping you'd add them at some point lol. Kinda agree with you on most of these, and sadly also on Belgium. I'm putting my heart aside and allowing my head to assume that this is a borderline non-qualifier, but in my heart I LOVE this song so I'm hoping and praying it qualifies. It'll really light up at the finale if it does and we could see a 'Laura Tesoro' surprise happen because its a party song. Like you, I feel for Blanka, but I genuinely hope upon hope that they don't qualify. There are far more worthy countries this year who played the game properly and fairly who deserve a spot in the finals (Belgium being one of them 😊). I just feel sorry for Blanka being caught up in it all. She can't sing for shit though. 😂
Belgium TOTALLY can make it through, and Belgium managed to do it the last 2 years when a lot of poeple thought they couldnt. Hooverphonic were 11th in televote then, but Jeremie was 10th. I think they should play the system and bring in a massive prop or something so that they have to put him before the ad break so that they can bring it in. otherwise he'll likely go first. I also think it would be clever to play up the LGBT+ staging, go even more into it and represent
@@ESCTom yes! They need to play up the voguing and go for that 'Legendary' feel. That is rooted in LGBT culture and is so current. Imagine an entire routine with dancers around him, dressed in haute couture outfits, voguing the house down?! So much potential
The funny thing is, whilst this is an open semi, I actually do have about 8-10 songs id quite like to qualify. Now onto the songs: Austria: Id imagine this'll qualify, i still think it could potentially have a similar fate to czechia (really well or really flop) because ive no idea how itll be staged. I do think it will qualify though. Georgia: This pretty much has to qualify, i think itll be staged well and she can definitely sing. Greece: I quite like this song (seem to be in the minority with this one). I think its 50/50 for qualification but i think staging could help. Armenia: I think that this will be staged well, i still think its maybe more of a jury song than televote. Still think it'll qualify. Slovenia: This feels like a definite qualifier. Tbh its kind of what i hoped Wild Youth would be 😭. It has its fans, theyre good performers, could be near the top of this semi. San Marino: Its aight but i think it sounds a bit amateurish. Probably the most likely to not qualify. Cyprus: I quite like this song, ik its generic,ik its mainstream but its well done and I love a bit of Falsetto. I hope its staged well because I want this to qualify (potential estonia 2022 of this year 👀) Belgium: This song kinda pisses me off, it sounds like 90s karaoke night. Didnt love the presentation in their selection. I think it could qualify but I kinda hope it doesnt 😬. Australia: This will probably be really good live, it feels like a stage performance song. Might surprise some people. Is the uk not voting in semi 2? Denmark: Think it could qualify,maybe not a guaranteed qualifier but certainly has a chance. Iceland: Kind of like a lithuania situation, great singer, the song isnt doing a whole lot. I think its likeable enough to qualify but it might not. Lithuania: Speak of the devil 😂. When I say this song does nothing for me, i think its quite dull, great singer though. Think it will qualify. Estonia: Quaaaality. Wasnt even my favourite of the selection but its low key frustrating to see no one ralk about this. Maybe complacency? Honestly, might be too harsh to say, I think it'd be a disgrace for televoters to not have this qualify because itd just cement the opinion that they cant enjoy or appreciate a quality ballad. This imo ( not just saying this coz I like it) should be a handy qualifier. Dont forget televoters had greece and the netherlands relatively low in their qualifiers last year (again kinda ridiculous given that they were prob along with Ukraine some of the best songs of that semi) Romania: Well the first thing to say, I really do not think this will open, itd be a very strange opener (especially with that staging👀). Dont expect it to qualify but its not a guaranteed no. I will say, i dobt actually hate the song, kinda a vibe and he performs it well. Albania: It might qualify, i dont find it particularly interesting. Are the family going to esc? (also Tom, the corrs 😂). It feels very ethnic musical theater performance. Poland: 💀 Low key, this mightnt be a deadsert non qualifier. I could see it squeak through. The song is aight i think but cyprus is better.
"That staging" will not be the staging presented in Liverpool for Romania. They are not stuck with that staging, they will change it. The artist already said it.
I really like Iceland this year (in my top3 this year). I think that vocals are great and song is good too. Only thing I'm worried about is the staging...but with an improvement...I think is a strong pack. What do u think?
yea i think its possible. like staging really can change how a song is viewed. There were so many visual aspects about the Songva staging that just dated the song - the flower visuals, her oversized jacked etc. Maybe if it had a total visual revamp, it would make the package seem less dated, and more high end and nostalgic
@@ESCTom Yeah, I can agree with u in that. I actually think that this song will enter in top10 after rehearsals and finally qualify...We will see :). Great video as always Tom, have been following u for some months and I really like your videos, keep doing this great job! Greetings from Spain
Polish scandal in my opinion is definitely more widespread than just Poland. I don't live in Poland and I have seen so many videos discussing this injustice and a lot Eurovision fans I have spoken to have had strong opinions about it. And we are not even talking about the horrible vocals she has shown. Poland is definitely not qualifying.
Hmm I could see Greece being borderline Q, they are getting points from Cyprus, Georgia, Armenia, Albania probably and maybe some from Denmark, since he's half-Danish. Plus can get something from some other countries and that could be enough, of course if the performance will be good overall. For Poland, I think that TVP scandal was too big to not reach people in diaspora, and they hate TVP (Rafal was from TVP and he didn't have diaspora vote), also let's be real, her vocals are.... terrible and I doubt she can work on it to sound good until esc. I think there are really small chances this will go to the final. Albania... Hm, well, I think you might have gone too much into analysis about the concept of the song, I think locals don't pay attention too much and just vote if they like it or not on the evening.. Albania is ethnic (only ethnic? song in the semi if I remember) and could get some diaspora votes, maybe even some Turkish diaspora votes, I think it could qualify.
I agree after my first 5 I was undecided who would go through. You said Italy cannot vote San Marino, I live in Italy, can I only vote in the final then? I want to vote Australia (where I was born😂) I am a bit scared they won't make it!
If we (Austria) don't qualify it's gonna be due to staging. Our delegation - much like Germany's - usually just "doesn't get it". A lot of older generation classical music and radio people. I have hope tho that the ladies are not gonna accept mediocrity
I agreed mostly on SF1 but here I think you got a lot of things wrong. In my opinion Belgium, Estonia are easy qualifiers - they are extremely powerful live. While Romania is 100% not qualifiying, I do not see how this song would have a fighting chance, even with good staging. Lithuania, Iceland is 50/50 - amazing vocals but the songs are not that impressive. Similar with Poland, Denmark - really depends on the staging, songs are radio friendly but not that great live. There not many countries to vote for Albania (balkan brothers), so I am also sure they wont qualify. Cyprus will qualify probably, but they are gonna be on the lower end. Greece close to qualifying. Everything else, yeah.
It’s nice of the magnets to feature Tom in their video
Thank you magnets! 🙏🏻🧲🙏🏻🧲🙏🏻🧲🙏🏻🧲🙏🏻
What you didn't mention for Poland is that they have only like 3 months to teach Blanka to sing, which is kind of a tall order
😂
its pia maria all over again
The shade is knee deep already 🤣 But true
she'll get the horny guys vote for being hot.
It All boils down to that, will people vote for the pretty face or for who can actually sing? 😅😅
as a ukrainian, if we give our 12 points to poland (for obvious reasons) i'll be very disappointed. what gives me hope is that jann is currently going utterly viral on our social media so some people will definitely remember him and poles asking not to vote for poland because of the riggery. also i see similar reactions that rafał got in 2021, after all, the diaspora & neighbour countries actually need to like the song (and what's more important, the context behind the entry and the artist) to vote for it.
Unfortunately, many viewers are unaware of the context of Polish pre-selection, Blanka’s video is one of the most reviewed and disliked, yes, but dislikes are hidden from view by youtube. I’ve already met opinions like wow, Poland’s song is so popular🙃 and the girl is beauty. It may actually qualify and all the mess around Polish entry may even promote it🫤 Sure, I’ll be disappointed in this case, particularly when TVP keeps silence, pretending everything’s fine.
I was thinking ur televote will go to Lithuania
Just LOVE Slovenia. They are so charismatic live
I go to the comments trying to find an Estonia 🇪🇪 fan, but it's been hard, so I'll come out and say I've got Estonia as number 2/3 (swapping positions with Norway). Honestly I listened to this song so many times on repeat when the songs for Eesti Laul came out. Also her voice is incredible, as detailed exquisitely by Honest Vocal Coach. I don't see this not making Top 5 in this semi final and hope it reaches Top 10 in the final. Honestly underrated song by community and odds, that should do well in the competition!!!
I really hope so too! Bridges is also my #1 🇪🇪😀❤️
As a Polish person, I don't expect a big diaspora support. I feel like any person that checks Polish news websites & social media circles has probably heard about this. Weeks after the NF, I feel like the atmosphere has cooled down, the locals most likely forgot about it for now, but the enthusiasm is not there. Come May, they'll probably remember what our 💞beloved💞 broadcaster did.
However, I feel like she still has a chance for votes from abroad IF she manages to improve her vocals and the whole performance (staging, choreo etc.) will go through a massive upgrade (with the team we have I'm not sure what to expect tbh, it could still be dreadful😅). The thing in her favour is that this semi doesn't have any girl bops and not many upbeat songs in general.
I'm also really rooting for Romania 🇷🇴. I might cast a few votes for him if the staging is good 'cause I really enjoy the song and have a soft spot for theatre kids 😅
Blanka is strong... Her song ranked fourth on the Eurovision playlist on Spotify. xD
@@OakSkyare you sure? publication 23 September...
@@OakSky she cant sing and she hates gays
Really hoping Iceland and Romania make it to the final, Dilja has some amazing vocal range and all Theodor has to do is fix that staging, when he was performing all by himself I was honestly blown away
As a Pole, I've noticed most people (of all age groups) who are active on social media/the internet are aware of the what has happened during the NF. I can honestly say younger people are not going to vote for Blanka, but unfortunately a lot of older people like the song and defend it (mostly people who enjoy listening to disco polo and people who only care about having a pretty girl on the stage). Honestly I will be very disappointed if the song qualifies :(
It's really humorous to me how Reiley has really dominated the "young" vote conversation when he was actually born the same year as Andrejs (Latvia vocalist), La Zarra (allegedly), Mae, and Jimoh (Ukraine vocalist). AND he's older than Victor, Theodor, Alessandra, Alika, Diljá, Remo, Brunette, Noa, Iru, Tural and Turan (Azerbaijan), Kārlis (Latvia drummer), Mārtins (Latvia drummer), Blanka, Bojan (Slovenia vocalist), Kris (Slovenia guitarist), Jan (Slovenia guitarist), Andrew, both Teya and Salena, and Albina. Wow.
that’s insane, he looks about 16 😭
He has such good skin he still looks like a baby 😂
That's because he's like me.... I'm in my mid thirties but you would think I'm about 28-30 I'm sure..... also I'm an introvert he's an introverted type of a person either.... but on the stage of pre-parties it's more seen he's older.
My predictions very rarely work out, but I'm putting Estonia as a dark horse. I think they'll bring a really strong package to Eurovision and the ballad community will eat it up. It's got some powerhouse competition, but I believe in the power of the little guy!
We all thought semi 1 was the bloodbath. But semi 2 will probably be the most nail-baiting semi, since its everyones game. Everything can change!
Great to see not only your well researched and knowledgeable analysis, but also to see you so actively responding to comments. One thing I can maybe add is experience of seeing Voyager live for 20 years - I can guarantee that they will bring it! Super competent live; excellent musicianship and full of energy. Shame that instruments aren't played live, that would definitely sort things out in Voyager's favour!
Example from 12 years ago. Same lineup, despite appearances! Language warning for the kiddies.
ruclips.net/video/b_Drb-cc3t4/видео.html
I hope you are right, I just love that song (and I was born in Australia so a bit biased but other years the Australian songs havent convinced me much) 😅
thank you for still having hope for romania😭🙏 i honestly think that this is one of the best songs we have sent lately, and theodor is such a great guy! i'm really considering voting this year since i live in the netherlands now, i really want him to go through to the final😅
well since I did this video, i heard that hes training 7 hours a day right now and he's got a big show planned. So im hoping that he will be one of the rehearsals that will make him go up in the odds
I live in austria and i vote for it 🎉🎉🎉
I reckon he's the most underrated song of the season. I really liked his song when it came out and his performance before 'the mess' was very charismatic and focused on himself.
@@ESCTom Yes, he did say in an interview they're rehearsing 7-8 per day, I heard him. Now, maybe not every day, but he is working hard according to what I've been able to gather.
i am from Poland and i really like the song, the message, and i appreciate that the song is not in english
for me its top 5 from sf2
Tom you are the best Eurovision commentator and analyst. Period. So thoughtful and really able to separate personal taste from your predictions. And Amen to the gym comment 😆
As someone who likes Icelands entry, it's 99.9% because I like Diljas energy and find her breath control super impressive. Hearing the singers breath a lot is basically one of my pet peeves, and Diljas manages to keep her breath out of the mic while moving around quite a bit. I just gotta respect that lol
And if they stage it right, I think it could get that "girl power" appeal that I don't think any other entry here has. So maybe that's a bit of a plus for her.
And I also hope Romania gets through. The staging was bad, but the song is okay and I find Andrei so impressive for someone so young.
yea like iceland will hopefully look completely different than it did in the national final because those visuals really dated the song for me. Whereas if it had like a much more innovative or modern stageing concept it could completely change how I view this song personally. so im hoping they elevate this massively
i agree she's probably one of the best vocally, just not sure if they public will get behind her
I would say 'definite yes' for Slovenia because those guys ALREADY have a staging concept and GREAT live energy. I have seen some clips of Brunette live and she seems to be more of a rapper than a singer so it could be a borderline yes. With Cyprus, it's more a borderline or likely yes since Andrew is still having problems singing live. There's still a problem there that the song could be dragged down by. As we saw in Australia decides, Voyager have the most experience out of most bands this year and the song is great with many things for different people, as well as the connection that they have live with working class and middle class people, meaning it's definite yes. We know they staging can be amazing and it will only be elevated from last year since this is Eurovision. Denmark has a HUGE following meaning that the worldwide televote will give him the most support and as a zoomer, i can really relate to the song - watch him improve the staging and vocals live. With Iceland, the British will support the song as it's the kind of thing we like and whist the song is weaker, Dija is a great performer. We will have to see those live. If Syster can qualify, Dija can qualify. I'd say Denmark is borderline or likely yes and this will surprise people, whilst Iceland is borderline yes or borderline no for me. Lithuania is ANOTHER song that is being slept on. I think a lot of young people will support the song, especially women who can relate to the song - another one that can resonate with the British. I personally think it would have been a 100% definite yes if the jury were involved but because of that i'd say a likely yes or borderline yes. For me, it trumps Belgium in terms of a great vocals with vocal accompaniment piece. Estonia's song will wow people - it's definitely the best ballad of this year and the Estonian reaction will be the Eurovision reaction. Romania's Theodor is amazing but the staging will be improved. He needs to have pyro and tons of lighting performances at the end, like portugal's stage show - if it's like the previous performance of Theodor, it could be a borderline yes. I think he'll connect with the audience with his voice. I think Albania's song will go down well in the family shows and a lot of ordinary people who aren't part of the fanbase of Eurovision who are on their own. The song is about unifying the family and encouraging love (hence the name 'duje') which COULD resonate with the people. Albina WON'T be bringing her family so the staging will be much better. I would say a borderline no or borderline yes. I think the music video changed my perception of this. It's got a better chance than last year. Poland could enrage the fandom by borderline qualifying as most people wont hear or frankly care about the story with the national final and Blanka WILL improve. There's definitely a bunch of slower songs in this semi final so Blanka COULD make the show more fun.
Give more details for Andrew Lambrou please
😊😊😊
Alika stan reporting for duty! My favorite ballad of the year by far, I think/hope fans are quiet on it because it's been out forever. I know it's been discussed to death, but Jann would have been a definite qualifier from this semi. I don't think Blanka has a strong enough vocal or an interesting enough song.
omg yes Jann would have been 1000000000% yes. The polish disapora would have put him through, but he wouldnt have needed it. He would have been Top 3 in the semi easily
Hey, I'm an Alika stan, Bridges is my Nr.1 since it won Eesti Laul :)
Alika is my #1 (despite having been an Ollie and M Els fan). If there is not enough buzz about her, it is because we are just waiting to see her blow the socks off the competition at the big stage. She has boatloads of charisma; I hope people get such vibe from her.
Estonia is my number 2 of the year, and it was my number 1 for the longest time until Vesna overtook her
I will be hartbroken if Romania doesn't qualify because I loved that song from the start. I really hope people will vote for it in the semifinal 😭.
Romania has got to qualify for sure if the staging gets changed. The song is amazing and Theodor is fantastic
If Poland makes it to the final I'm gonna miss the juries im the SF.
Imagine Sekret missing out on a spot in the final because of them and Solo advancing THANKS to their absence😢
You obviously have not checked the voting patterns. Greece has a lot of friendly countries in this semi that traditionally vote for them. Cyprus, Armenia( super friendly), Georgia(always), San Marino(always), Romania (always), Albania( they always vote for Greece). Moreover Victor is half Danish and Denmark is in this semi. If you do the math, hypothetically speaking, and after having seen the patterns, it is really difficult for Greece to not qualify. Statistically, Greece has many more countries that vote for them traditionally, rather than Cyprus. I am saying this because you already counted points from Australia to Cyprus, sth that should not be taken for granted. It is a very friendly semi for Greece. So my suggestion would be to put Greece to likely yes or borderline yes. If this is your personal taste, then it is fine, but if it is supposed to be an objective prediction, then it is likely wrong, at least for Greece.
It's true Romania doesn't have Moldova, but it does have UK and Spain. There is a considerable diaspora there and Romanians will vote.
I am Estonia kind of person! This song is amazing to me (although I might be already an older audience) - very emotional, sung perfectly, I hope it will go through!
Well, Polish diaspora will probably not vote. IF (and I stress - IF, because I know it's not happening) US diaspora voted - they would vote for her a lot, because they follow TVP almost religiously (not all of them, of course, but most). BUT UK diaspora is a little bit different. Jann is trending on the Spotify charts there (And I wish him only the best, but I am pretty sure Polish diaspora had to do something with it :D ), they quite often disagree with TVP, so they are more conscious of the situation.
And still - there are people that do like this song (in many countries), cause it is like a summer holiday bop for them. Blanka can't sing live. No matter the song - it will flop.
Also I love that you have never heard of a family band when to me, the most famous family band is the Kelly Family, which is from Ireland (but got big in Germany) 😂😂
theyre Irish American apparently, and no id never heard of them before they were mentioned to me in the comments here 😅
@@ESCTom They did live in Ireland, for a while at least. Have you never heard of "Fell in love with an alien" & the other hits? That seems so unlikely, they were so HUGE.
Also, no Irish family band? Clannad with Enya would like to have a word!
Also, don't forget Gagnamagnið! 😋
Slight correction with Australia at 15.50 - the UK are voting in semi 2 :) I mostly agree with you but semi 2 is so open, I could see pretty much anyone qualifying! It'll come down to giving a great performance. I personally love Iceland and Denmark - I would love for this to be the first year since 2014 where we have all the nordics!
ah yes, good correction. ok I feel even better about putting them as a QF now 😊🇦🇺
love that 2014 trivia too btw
insanely tough semi to predict
Semi 2 might be much weaker than semi 1, but also harder to predict as it’s so open
@@albertolopez209 yeah 100%
@@albertolopez209 This is something i remember from 2021. They said ''Semi-final 1 is stronger.'' but semi-final 2 songs got better ranking in final.
Yessss, DGT is my fav from semi 2! I really hope he qualifies and people stop hating on the song when they actually just don't like the staging
I really really support Theodor despite The Mess, the song is actually really good and that sultry rocky jazzy feel has a nieche in Romania with Mihail and Jean Gavril, look them up, he's not just messing around in the ether, just because we are all blinded by The Mess it doesn't mean it's a bad song and that he is a bad singer. I would not be surprised if we don't qualify after the hate, but I really love Theo and I loved him from the beggining.
I think Greece is borderline qualifier. They have the easiest draw with all their voting allies able to vote in this semi, they have 30-40 points locked in at this point. With good staging, they are picking up some lower top 10 points, so reaching the 50-60 points required for qualification. Also, I just don't think it's a song that the fandom appreciates, but I can see the general public liking it much more.
Polish diaspora won't vote for Solo, if they didn't even vote for The Ride
Hoping Diljá, Iru and Joker Out deliver and all three enter.
Iceland really gives me the same vibes i felt with Med Haekkandi Sól when nobody thought they could get in and they did at the end! Also Slovenia being so low on the betting odds is really weird, how is a song on the 30th place there but on every single ranking i've seen they get top 10, i just dont get it. (They just got up to 23rd, nice!) And Georgia really needs to qualify, hoping it gives them the push they need and start delivering!
Great video!
If Poland qualify, I'll be extremely sad
Unless she drastically improves her live singing, I (born in Poland living in Germany)would not understand who would vote for someone so bad at live singing. Not even the majority of Poles living outside of Poland , would vote for someone like her. Brooke+Pia Maria didn't have the best live vocals last year and even if the jury would not have been there they wouldn't have made it to the grand final because they didn't get enough votes from the public
It's so hard to predict this semi final. Everything can happen and I think 21-26th in the final all will be from this semi final and maybe 1 direct finalist.
My predictions:
I think will qualify
100% 🇸🇮 Slovenia (will probably close the semi and has potential to win this semi)
95% 🇬🇪 Georgia (I think the staging will be really good and remarkable, has potential to be the best ever result of Georgia)
95% 🇦🇲 Armenia (The singer is really good and she knows how to present it, I feel like they will stage this epic)
90% 🇦🇹 Austria (If it was just about the song a sure qualifier but Austria is not famous with staging. If they stage bad this can flop so badly just like last year. But these singers seems like they know what they are doing so I feel confident about Austria this year)
90% 🇱🇹 Lithuania (A sure qualifier for me, it will be big with juries in the final. Lithuania always does so well with televote. I don't understand why people underestimate the potential of this song)
80% 🇩🇰 Denmark (Cmon Denmark did with less, this is perfect for younger generation and there is a big amount of votes coming from this age range)
70% 🇦🇺 Australia (My only concern is that it is just televote based semi but I see them qualifying this year. I am also sure that the end of the staging of this song will be a moment with all those lights)
60% 🇨🇾 Cyprus (They are so lucky that they are in this semi. Same with Greece they also have Georgia, Armenia and Albania loves to vote for them too and Australia will give some points too for sure)
55% 🇦🇱 Albania (From here it is so hard to predict. Everyone is borderline yes/no in this semi. They are the only ethnic song in this semi but I still see them making through)
55% 🇬🇷 Greece (They will qualify just because I think points from Cyprus, Albania, Georgia, Armenia, Denmark (the guy is half danish), UK and maybe Belgium will be enough for them no matter the staging)
I think won't qualify
%45 🇪🇪 Estonia (Just here because other countries are able to do better in just televote semi)
%40 🇧🇪 Belgium (If this qualifies I wouldn't be shocked at all. It is just last year Israel didn't qualify and it is kinda same vibe)
%40 🇵🇱 Poland (If this qualifies I wouldn't be shocked as well but this year Polish diaspora won't be there voting for her)
%35 🇮🇸 Iceland (In televote unfortunately I just see she is getting forgotten and I love this song :(
%5 🇷🇴 Romania (It is not strong enough to qualify)
%0 🇸🇲 San Marino (Just no)
I'm sorry for the long comment when I start I can't stop 😂 Love these detailed videos
16 is not too young to go to Eurovision. Nadav Guedj performed amazingly for Israel in 2015 with "Golden Boy".
I was shocked to discover he was only16; he acted like a true pro.
yea he did great. he had 4 dancers on stage with him though. i think it definitely helps to have a team you rehearse with come with you onto the stage
Well this is interesting, in Italy if you are under 18 you cannot perform or show yourself on TV after midnight, so its a problem for example Sanremo that goes on for 4 Hours! Difficult for a minor to partecipate. In fact Mr Rain who came third had kids singing with him, in the final performance they were not there! I thought maybe Eurovision had a similar rule?
I think this semi will have 2 shocking qualifiers, romania being one of them because if he made some changes (such as wearing a nice suit, having a dark coloured backdrop, dropping the backing vocals), the song in itself is not terrible (also diaspora), and probably albania because of the diaspora and because of the family element. I think only one of the baltics will get through and im afraid or austria pulling a 2022 2.0, where the studio version is loved by everyone but the staging and live vocals dont make the most sense.
edit: actually since spain, uk and ukraine are voting that semi, i think romania and poland will benefit from that a lot. sorry albania, but theres already so many bands this semi
One thing I’ll say about Austria is that they are way better singers than pia from last year. So I’m much less worried for them
My early prediction for this semi:
Definite YES: Austria, Australia, Cyprus
Likely YES: Armenia, Estonia, Georgia, Lithuania, Slovenia
Borderline YES: Iceland, Poland
Borderline NO: Albania, Belgium, Denmark, Greece
Definite NO: Romania, San Marino
Rooting for my Borderline Nos to get better ofc, there's still time.
I vote Poland down because she can't sing live, I doubt she can improve it that much until the ESC happens. I (born in Poland, living in Germany) loved Ochman last year (he had a great voice) and now they're sending her to ESC? It looks like Poland have not anyone who can sing better. I think it's a shame for the Polish people to have someone like her representing Poland, even if they don't know anything about the scandal and live abroad
if romania's community temperature is overall cold, i will simply set myself on fire to warm the scene up :D
😂🔥
For me, the only ones I care about qualifying are Australia, Slovenia and Estonia (I have apparently not talked about it a lot but I think it's great!). All three of them stand out so much and offer such great quality, they're head and shoulders above the rest in this semi.
Tbh, the rest all leave me quite indifferent. Even Austria who everybody seems smitten with; I think it's a good and fun song, but don't really care what happens to it. You know already that I don't like Georgia (I think it will qualify though), and Cyprus... it's a good song and he's yummy, but that's about all there is to it.
I agree with you 9/10; the only difference is that I think Greece will qualify and Poland won't. Poland's song is absolutely dire, so I don't think she stands a chance even in this semi and even with people not knowing the back story. And Greece's song is decent enough.
Thanks for the support 🇦🇺
I'll only watch SM1, because I feel hate song Solo. of course, I don't want to see Poland in the final. hmm... oddsach is 12 (NQ), but 50/50 %. Disco polo is as unloved as it is loved. She is planning to dance break - no comment. My Q: Australia, Estonia, Slovenia...
As a Pole I really really hope Blanka won't qualify 😥 Its been so long since preselections but Im still angry and disappointed. I hope we take some actions to raise awareness about what happened so less people would vote for Poland like some Twitter hashtags. But it still doesn't change the fact that most of the eurovision viewers are just unreachable. I think that most Poles abroad want to vote for their country no matter what song is sent. As much as it hurts I agree that our chance of qualifying is huge and I cant wait for the news on TVP how we achieved an international success thanks to them😡 Anyway there are so many great songs so Im gonna move on somehow😂 Great video as always👌
yea thats the saddest part. If she qualifies, you just know that TVP are going to be like "See, we are right! we know what's best for Poland!" 🤮🤮🤮
@@ESCTom yeah, that is exactly whats gonna happen. They already stated blanka receives a lot of the hate from their opposition and it's because opposition is jelaous / angry they are not in charge. They won't care second semi final is nowhere near as good as the first one so even the most trash song might qualify if some lucky shit happens. Anyway she just can't qualify, there is just no way she can
I have put poland through based on excatly what you have said 😂 Unfortunately majority of people won't know about the controversy. It's so insulting considering Poland cheated last year in the semi finals. Hence the reason why no jury voting in the semis this year.
We can only hope blanka is gonna perform even worse in may so even those people won't vote for her hahah
I'm Polish and I almost feel like we don't have a representative this year, weird feeling, kinda like in 2021 but worse. I hope that TVP won't be in the final but I wouldn't count them off. There will be a revamp, I also have a feeling that she will sound a bit better at ESC because sound mixing in our national final was terrible. When it comes to the staging I'm pretty sure that her music label will put a lot of money into it. Diaspora tho? I doubt that she will get many points from them. she has the same reputation as Rafał, both are perceived as TVP pupils, both aren't good vocally ...
Disregarding the nf rigging, Solo is a bad song. It sounds boring and like its from 2017, she cant sing the song (despite it being a really easy song), the performance needs a lot of work because its a complete mess
the mixing in the NAtional Final was really bad. The acoustics will be much better in Liverpool and its not a hard song to sing
@@ESCTom While I agree that the mixing was bad, watching other performances of the song (which she's been doing for the last four months) it doesn't sound particularly good in any of them. The Polish diaspora seems to also be very vocal about the NF rigging.
But I still do agree that this could be a very unfortunate shock qualifier
Polish jurors satisfied with such an assessment of the representative of TVP? You should sink into the ground, in a country of 40 million, choose such a mediocrity. Shame , stop corruption !!!!!!!!
I highly doubt poland will qualify, her vocals in the national final were probably some of the worst i have seen in the past 10 years for eurovision its absolutely atrocious
The acoustics and vocal mixing in Liverpool will be much better so it’ll be much easily to hide her bad vocals there
@@ESCTom she even sounds badly with full playback and good sounding, the only why to improve that is to give her strong backing vocalist who would sing louder then she:
ruclips.net/video/R_NE6SllqRs/видео.html
Still I can’t believe they chose her, the whole NF was so weak, even though no professional juror would have do that. Dominik, Alicja, Jann, Felivers were simply better.
I agree with 9 out of 10, only picking Iceland instead of Denmark. But my personal pick for the last spot would be Denmark over Poland, even though I'm Polish.
And also, Australia needs to close the 2nd semi. It's a great closing song. It would be also a great choice for the closing spot in the final, far better than the UK. If it's in the 1st half it would also be a great pick for the opening spot, so similar to Czechia last year. :)
Swap Belgium for Poland and I agree with you
Also happy you have Cyprus as a definite
Austria, Slovenia, Cyprus & Australia are the only 4 definite qualifiers, imo. Greece should also go through (Cyp, Arm, Geo, SanM, Rom, Alb traditionally vote for them). All the rest will struggle to go through.
I could see Greece qualifying personally. At least in terms of style, the song stands out in the semi (especially if it has a good placement - I could see either this or Iceland closing the first half) and for me the song has that acoustic pop charm. The song is a huge Grower personally and I could see eurovisionfans warming up to the song ahead of the show. Plus, he's a cute 16 year old boy. Teenage girls will vote for this.
The way I see it is, if Sweden can come 5th with 'If I Were Sorry' back in 2016, why can't this do just as well. 'If I Were Sorry' was a weak song in a very strong final, and it still did great (yes, it was Sweden and they were hosting, so they had a lot going for them).
'What They Say' is arguably a much better song so it has every chance to also do well.
one thing ill say about "If I were sorry" is that despite the fact I didnt really enjoy the song, it was very successfully commercially. It was actually one of the Eurovision songs I heard played the most when I lived in China.
I dont think Greeces song is as good, but yea ill keep an eye on this one. It had a very frosty reception, but general public might receive it better
@@ESCTom The radio I listen to here in Slovenia plays 3 songs over and over again. If I were sorry(sick and tired of hearing it at this point tbh), calm after the storm and sometimes euphoria. Also Rosa linn but she is more current.
I really like both "What they say" and "If I were sorry" Both very pleasant, charming and genuine.
Both are for locals.
Alika is my number 1 this year
Maybe it's wishful thinking, but Estonia is going to outperform Lithuania to the degree that Lithuania won't qualify. Alika is a contender for best singer this season, and she might soak up points from Lithuania and Iceland, who also don't seem to rely on overwhelming visuals (which is how Armenia and Georgia are going to qualify).
I also really want Romania to qualify because it's a good coming-of-age song, which is an uncommon theme for Eurovision. A cleaner stage (does he really need four scarcely dressed dancers?), with Theodor as the main attraction will elevate the song for sure.
Belgium might be a shock qualifier (never underestimate the power of a positive party vibe like last year's Moldova) or hit rock bottom with Poland and San Marino (who can actually perform, it's just the song that is jarring), there is no middle ground there.
well because LIT and EST are in different halves, i could totally see both of them qualifying. i think theres space for 2 ballads to get through
i cannot stand the greek song, but i can see it qualifying just on the neighborly voting alone. cyprus easy 12 (which is used to calculate san marino's televote), the greek albanian diaspora, plus the historic connections with georgia and armenia. someone did a stat breadown of how lucky everyone got with the draw, and greece and cyprus ended up with the best assortment of countries BY FAR
Hi Tom. I'm new to your channel and loving it. I can't believe I have watched Eurovision all these years and didn't think to check out RUclips 🙃 keep up the great work, love from Australia - Go Voyager! 🇦🇺💖
Aww thank you Karina, glad you could join us 🥰
@@ESCTom Thanks Tom. I did have a question about the world wide televote, does this apply to both semi finals and the grand final?
Tom I've just found your channel and really like it, (first year I've gotten into NF season lol) but I really, really hope that you're wrong about Poland and Denmark qualifying as they are my bottom two songs! 😂
Thank you 🙏🏻
If theres one thing true I can tell you about SF qualifiers, it's that youll never get your top 10. Its never happened to me once since 2008. So we're pretty guaranteed that either Poland or Denmark will qualify now 😂
@@ESCTom Truth be told I at the very least somewhat enjoy every song in SF2 apart from them two and Cyprus so fingers crossed! I really hope Romania cleans up their staging because that's the song which I really like which has the highest chance of NQ'ing. My other favourites Austria, Slovenia and Australia are basically locks or at least 70% there in my mind. 🤣
Diljas' voice is enough of a reason for them to qualify! She'll make it, I don't understand why odds aren't in her favour. A wonderful performer it really saves the song.
Iceland usually struggles to qualify historically so odds might find it too risky to bet Iceland at the moment
Very boring song
I'd switch Iceland and Denmark tbh because Breaking my Heart just didn't sound good live
And I think Estonia could be a shock non Qualifier because there are no Jurys in the semi Final
I feel like no song in this semi is more sure than the other to qualify. It is just so open! I think those that have an edge already is Cyprus with getting 12 from Greece and potentially also Albania and Australia.
Slovenia because they just have such a charisma and stage present that they are definitely going to spellbound so many.
Denmark because Reiley alone being Faroese will give him top points from Iceland and maybe also the UK in the form of the Scottish since I believe they have a sort of friendship with the Faroese (though I could be wrong) and the rest of the world vote if the South Koreans come through.
Australia is going to stand out big time. And as much as it hurts to say, Poland probably has a chance too because Ukraine is voting in the semi.
Austria seems obvious too, but I have to see how their staging will be before I chose to believe they'll go through 100% cause it can get messy quit easily if they do it wrong.
Agree with almost all you say. I don’t think there’s a connection between faroe and Scotland though, and scotlands population is quite a small % of the UKs population
The first semi-final has more potential top 10 songs in the final, the second final has more potential qualifiers. I think both Iceland (really lovely performance where you see her enthusiasm) and Denmark (demographic that could stan if he performs good) could go through. Why choose between those? The Poland story about the National Final seems pretty big with the amount of views for Jann + comments under the video of Blanco
Greece also have Albania Denmark (kid is 1/2 Danish) possibly also Iceland, that's quite a lot of support
Here's my analysis !!
Definite yes - Austria, Slovenia, Lithuania & Belgium
I am 99.9% sure that Belgium is finishing in the top 5 of this semi, especially if Gustaph opens the show
Likely yes - Armenia, Australia, Georgia & Cyprus
This is the most sure I've felt about Georgia qualifying in a WHILE
Borderline yes - Greece & Estonia
For some reason I feel like Greece will have enough support in this semi to qualify in 10th, but only if the staging is right. Otherwise it's out for sure
Borderline no - Albania
...in case Greece doesn't qualify
Likely no - Denmark, Iceland, Poland, Romania
I actually love Power but I don't think people are gonna vote for it. I feel like there's always going to be *at least* one song that people like more
Definite no - San Marino
You're done.
Why doesn’t Lithuanian entry receive the same energy as Poland this year? Monika Linkyte did NOT win the public vote and is going to Liverpool because the jury put her first and she ALSO had friends and co-writers in the jury. Not many people know this but that is also not fair. The ratio between the 1st and the 2nd place wasn’t as massive as in Poland but it doesn’t matter as she wasn’t the one who won the public vote.
I’ve already spoken about it on other videos. Lithuania has always had the jury wins tiebreaker rule.
I agreed that there shouldn’t be members of the jury who have connections with some contestants in the future, because it makes the competition look unfair
@@ESCTom yes I know you already spoke about and it was a very good video, I’m just mad about the unfairness when the jury is sending whatever they want and not what people want 😂
@@GossipGirl770 in Denmark Reiley also did not win the televote.
Estonia is my first place so I'm one of the rare stans.
I love Power honestly because of the meaning of the song. I resonate strongly with the lyrics, and the song is super listenable for me
Totally agree. Except I will have Albania 🇦🇱 in Poland 🇵🇱 out 👍
ah lol we were so close to be exactly the same except for that last minute decision 😅
@ESC Tom I like you and your content, I get jealous and mad when you like things I don't like 😁 so, sometimes, I leave comments revealing my slight disappointment, but always love is there deep inside ❤️
😂❤️
The polish song is actually an alright song that under normal circumstances would be likely to go through in a semi as weak as semi 2. The problem is the backstory of the rigged national final that hangs over her, and also the fact that she cannot sing and literally talks her way through the whole song.
I just hope
Just HOPE that poland gets a non qualifier this year.
Even if the situation of the polish selection didnt happen, the song is pretty much radiotrash. Its lame, basic, and feels like its generated by AI
Okay, I agreed 100% with your prediction for Semi-Final 1, but this one, it ain't it for me. Greece has 12 points guaranteed by Cyprus and also Albania, Armenia, San Marino, Slovenia and Denmark (where Victor's dad is from) are all voting in this semi. You gotta really believe that Greece is not gonna receive any points from any other countries to argue that Greece might not get through, and it will still be borderline because they're gonna get about 35 points only from the countries I mentioned. Amanda did really bad with the televote on average last year (she finished in the bottom 5 of I think 12 or 14 countries) but she still got 12 points from Albania, 8 from Slovenia and 7 from San Marino (in the final)
@@mennmenn7428 You wanna tell me that people in Albania and Slovenia went crazy for Die Together while they're gonna hate What They Say? Furthermore, the fans' opinion about a song, especially before the rehearsals, doesn't determine its fortune. We've seen that in several occasions before. It's geopolitics and preferential vote what I was talking about to begin with. Voting patterns. And with this allocation draw Greece is close to qualification only with the votes of their voting allies. I don't think that anything lower than 11th place is mathematically possible. When it comes to quality, hands down I don't understand your complaint. Maybe Amanda's song was more direct because it has a more instant hook but I think that Victor's song has an equal level of quality (if not higher). Personal taste let it be, but is it quality we're talking about?
Greece will not get 12 points from those countries and if it does, it's high time that ESC gets cancelled. The Greek song is so weak that there is no way it deserves to qualify.
@@GianniDN I didn't say it's gonna get 12 points from all these countries. I said that it will get enough points from them to reach close to qualification zone and if it gets a few points from the rest of the countries (maybe around 10-15 points) it's gonna be enough for it to qualify. Just because you don't like a song or several people don't like it doesn't mean neither that it's weak not that it doesn't deserve to qualify. We will see how it goes in May.
Regarding casual viewers not knowing about Poland's national final: What if the commentators hint about it? They are not allowed to say anything negative about any entry, but the Swedish presenters are always giving shade to someone. I don't know about other countries though.
Oh, and my guesses:
Def. yes: 🇦🇹
Likely yes: 🇬🇪🇦🇲🇸🇮🇦🇺
Borderline yes: 🇨🇾🇱🇹🇩🇰🇪🇪🇷🇴
Borderline no: 🇧🇪🇮🇸🇦🇱
Likely no: 🇵🇱🇬🇷
Def. no: 🇸🇲
i can only speak for IRE and UK, but i would be 100000% shocked if they had any knowledge about ANY national final, let alone a specific one
Last year Cyprus had a great song too band singer could not sin live on stage. Same happened to Romania in 2021. Those yeses could dip down in a blink of an eye
yea its possible. ive seen Andrew sing live a few times now though and hes a good singer. i think they also will have learned from their mistakes from last year
I still have Cyprus 2022 as 5th favourite and its all in instrumental.
Nice analysis! Had a snigger at the Irish non-familiarity with the concept of family bands, though. Ever heard of Clannad? 😀
i recognise the name but dont know them 😳😭
@@ESCTom Probably the world's most famous family band, and Irish! The name is derived from "family" of course! But I guess largely before your time. You'll surely be familiar with one of the family, Enya?
oh wow, i did not know that enya was from Clannad! Ive only ever known her as a solo act. shes my fantasy pick to represent Ireland
I think Gustaph can get the gay vote in the second semi-final. There's no other explicitly queer song in this semi-final and the lyrics really strongly resonate with LGBT identity. Could be enough to capture a fair amount of votes from enough countries
yea i think going quite heavily into that strategy could be very clever and authentic to him too
i think he just needs to bring the voguing from onto the stage! i was quote disappointed to see his live w out the dancers there (ik it was on the screen but it wasnt v impactful there), but hes clearly a strong singer so if he brings the camp staging for the competition i think he'll do well
It would be fantastic to see austria and slovenia back in the final and georgia I was like wtf at first but now I'm more like she snapped when she said "thing is known" so now I need it to go through. I have a feeling that greece will squeeze in but I hope my bejbe Blanka stays in the semis where she belongs, even thought that might be kinda krejsy
Definite NQ are Poland and San Marino, most likely Romania too, even though I’m one of his few fans lol. Albania too, although I really like the family vibe. That leaves one NQ spot, which I think will be between Greece, Belgium, Iceland and maybe Australia….although I really hope not, they’re one of my favourites. Denmark will quite likely get through, kids will vote for that.
You mentioned 4 NQ but we've got 16 countries in the 2nd semifinale.
im super excited to see what the running order will look like later, because right now i really cant call this semi at all. apart from a couple, i could see any of the countries in or out atm
The most famous family bands in the world: The Corrs from Ireland... also maybe The Kelly family, an Irish/American Group. Actually if you watch TG4 at all, you'll see loads of family bands. Not that uncommon in Ireland. Having said that Albania won't qualify with that song. Way too niche or not niche enough to do well.
well id consider The Corrs different as it isn't intergenerational. I know people who didnt even know the Corrs were family
Yes! I wanted to mention the Kelly Family too! Tom's probably too young to remember them ;-)
@@leendertjanw7540 they still give concerts together(at least here in Germany)
@@ESCTom my sister didn't know that until recently! Love the corrs
i love your analysis
Thank you Ozzy 🙏🏻
I'm sorry but Iceland is definitely qualifying.
the semi for me it's rather weak and open field, the one I like out of the semi are actually in my top 10; in descending order: Belgium "10", Denmark "9", Greece "6" and Iceland "3". for comparison 5 of the songs out of this semi are in my bottom 10. the rest I would like to see live.
You should consider placing a bet on it now then because they're currently 14th in the semi-final odds so you could get a good return
I think with poland if it was the studio version it'd still struggle to get through as it's so basic but her live was so messy I got second hand embarrassment so I think even if people don't now about the rigging they still won't vote for it. and for belgium i do like him as a person but I can't really stand the song so i won't mind him getting through as long as he doesn't take iceland's place (love u dilja)
really hope Poland is NQ. Jann was stitched up. Shocking. Greece has its worst song in years. In this really weak semi, only song I see as top ten in final so far is Austria.
yea i really hope poland NQ too, but i think their diaspora will be the deciding factor, they have the power to put it in or out
@@ESCTom Unlikely. The diaspora did not vote for Rafał in 2019, and he was only a bad singer. Blanka is a bad singer and a face of a huge corruption scandal. Poles abroad will not vote for her. I certainly wouldn't vote for her (I'm based in a country that votes in the 1st semi).
@@ESCTom polish diaspora is likely to either ignore semi 2 or vote against solo
Thing with Solo, since the semis are all televote, I feel like all the die hard Eurofans won't vote for Poland just out of spite for the whole situation
But the thing is - what percentage are they per country?
@@ESCTom They may be a small fraction per country, but I think it'll add up.
You and I both have the problem of letting our eyes do the talking when we discuss Andrew Lambrou lmao
😂
Why the hell is alot against Denmark?!. And its like that EVERY Year! Stop it!. Its a good song. Its a weak semi-final. Denmark should go through. I Do agree its gonna be like a Borderliner. So 10,9 or 8th. Thanks Tom for believe in us.
For me it's a blatant attempt to court the K-Pop market and the voicecoder thing plus the fact that Reiley lied about being 20 (he is actually 25) just means that I find it really...manufactured, which is the opposite of what Eurovision is all about. I'm sure Reiley is a good guy but this song I just find personally irritating on many levels 🤷♂️
To me it is just too childish / tweenish. I'm too old for fifthy shades of hearts. It's catchy though.
Iceland is my #1 in this semi (not that that says much) - I think I have it as #1 more so for Dilja and not really for the song at all. She’s an insane performer and her voice is killer. Can’t see someone with her stage prowess not qualifying from such a weak semi
Yesssssss, come through bloopers! I was hoping you'd add them at some point lol.
Kinda agree with you on most of these, and sadly also on Belgium. I'm putting my heart aside and allowing my head to assume that this is a borderline non-qualifier, but in my heart I LOVE this song so I'm hoping and praying it qualifies. It'll really light up at the finale if it does and we could see a 'Laura Tesoro' surprise happen because its a party song.
Like you, I feel for Blanka, but I genuinely hope upon hope that they don't qualify. There are far more worthy countries this year who played the game properly and fairly who deserve a spot in the finals (Belgium being one of them 😊). I just feel sorry for Blanka being caught up in it all. She can't sing for shit though. 😂
Belgium TOTALLY can make it through, and Belgium managed to do it the last 2 years when a lot of poeple thought they couldnt. Hooverphonic were 11th in televote then, but Jeremie was 10th.
I think they should play the system and bring in a massive prop or something so that they have to put him before the ad break so that they can bring it in. otherwise he'll likely go first.
I also think it would be clever to play up the LGBT+ staging, go even more into it and represent
@@ESCTom yes! They need to play up the voguing and go for that 'Legendary' feel. That is rooted in LGBT culture and is so current. Imagine an entire routine with dancers around him, dressed in haute couture outfits, voguing the house down?!
So much potential
The funny thing is, whilst this is an open semi, I actually do have about 8-10 songs id quite like to qualify.
Now onto the songs:
Austria: Id imagine this'll qualify, i still think it could potentially have a similar fate to czechia (really well or really flop) because ive no idea how itll be staged. I do think it will qualify though.
Georgia: This pretty much has to qualify, i think itll be staged well and she can definitely sing.
Greece: I quite like this song (seem to be in the minority with this one). I think its 50/50 for qualification but i think staging could help.
Armenia: I think that this will be staged well, i still think its maybe more of a jury song than televote. Still think it'll qualify.
Slovenia: This feels like a definite qualifier. Tbh its kind of what i hoped Wild Youth would be 😭. It has its fans, theyre good performers, could be near the top of this semi.
San Marino: Its aight but i think it sounds a bit amateurish. Probably the most likely to not qualify.
Cyprus: I quite like this song, ik its generic,ik its mainstream but its well done and I love a bit of Falsetto. I hope its staged well because I want this to qualify (potential estonia 2022 of this year 👀)
Belgium: This song kinda pisses me off, it sounds like 90s karaoke night. Didnt love the presentation in their selection. I think it could qualify but I kinda hope it doesnt 😬.
Australia: This will probably be really good live, it feels like a stage performance song. Might surprise some people. Is the uk not voting in semi 2?
Denmark: Think it could qualify,maybe not a guaranteed qualifier but certainly has a chance.
Iceland: Kind of like a lithuania situation, great singer, the song isnt doing a whole lot. I think its likeable enough to qualify but it might not.
Lithuania: Speak of the devil 😂. When I say this song does nothing for me, i think its quite dull, great singer though. Think it will qualify.
Estonia: Quaaaality. Wasnt even my favourite of the selection but its low key frustrating to see no one ralk about this. Maybe complacency? Honestly, might be too harsh to say, I think it'd be a disgrace for televoters to not have this qualify because itd just cement the opinion that they cant enjoy or appreciate a quality ballad. This imo ( not just saying this coz I like it) should be a handy qualifier. Dont forget televoters had greece and the netherlands relatively low in their qualifiers last year (again kinda ridiculous given that they were prob along with Ukraine some of the best songs of that semi)
Romania: Well the first thing to say, I really do not think this will open, itd be a very strange opener (especially with that staging👀). Dont expect it to qualify but its not a guaranteed no. I will say, i dobt actually hate the song, kinda a vibe and he performs it well.
Albania: It might qualify, i dont find it particularly interesting. Are the family going to esc? (also Tom, the corrs 😂). It feels very ethnic musical theater performance.
Poland: 💀
Low key, this mightnt be a deadsert non qualifier. I could see it squeak through. The song is aight i think but cyprus is better.
"That staging" will not be the staging presented in Liverpool for Romania. They are not stuck with that staging, they will change it. The artist already said it.
I really like Iceland this year (in my top3 this year). I think that vocals are great and song is good too. Only thing I'm worried about is the staging...but with an improvement...I think is a strong pack. What do u think?
yea i think its possible. like staging really can change how a song is viewed. There were so many visual aspects about the Songva staging that just dated the song - the flower visuals, her oversized jacked etc.
Maybe if it had a total visual revamp, it would make the package seem less dated, and more high end and nostalgic
@@ESCTom Yeah, I can agree with u in that. I actually think that this song will enter in top10 after rehearsals and finally qualify...We will see :). Great video as always Tom, have been following u for some months and I really like your videos, keep doing this great job! Greetings from Spain
Hello! Here I am! The Estonia Stan that has rhe song in the top 3! 😌
HAI 👋🏻😊
Polish scandal in my opinion is definitely more widespread than just Poland. I don't live in Poland and I have seen so many videos discussing this injustice and a lot Eurovision fans I have spoken to have had strong opinions about it. And we are not even talking about the horrible vocals she has shown. Poland is definitely not qualifying.
omg how can it seem that an Estonian song just doesn't exist because no one talks about it?? isn't it too early to say such a comment?
I've seen a lot of love for it .... she will be fine it's just not my cup of a tea.
Hmm I could see Greece being borderline Q, they are getting points from Cyprus, Georgia, Armenia, Albania probably and maybe some from Denmark, since he's half-Danish. Plus can get something from some other countries and that could be enough, of course if the performance will be good overall.
For Poland, I think that TVP scandal was too big to not reach people in diaspora, and they hate TVP (Rafal was from TVP and he didn't have diaspora vote), also let's be real, her vocals are.... terrible and I doubt she can work on it to sound good until esc. I think there are really small chances this will go to the final.
Albania... Hm, well, I think you might have gone too much into analysis about the concept of the song, I think locals don't pay attention too much and just vote if they like it or not on the evening.. Albania is ethnic (only ethnic? song in the semi if I remember) and could get some diaspora votes, maybe even some Turkish diaspora votes, I think it could qualify.
24:45 I thought Kelly Family were Irish. I know they lived in Spain, but they were successful all around Europe.
id never heard of them before. apparently theyre American Irish
@@ESCTom Ok.
@@ESCTom they toured extensively in German in the 80s. They'd often sing for cash in front of the C&A in Kassel.
I agree after my first 5 I was undecided who would go through. You said Italy cannot vote San Marino, I live in Italy, can I only vote in the final then? I want to vote Australia (where I was born😂) I am a bit scared they won't make it!
Yea Italy have been allocated SF1, so you can vote in that but not in SF2. and then you can vote in the final as well
@@ESCTom oh I see! Normally I dont vote but this year I think I will give a few votes 🥰
24:42 you never heard of the Jackson 5 Tom? 😂
haha of course i have, but they are siblings, like The Corrs. and also that was in the 60s/70s 😅
4:13 -Candy Love- *Candy Music*
Lol I always get it wrong 😂
@@ESCTom 🍭🎶
If we (Austria) don't qualify it's gonna be due to staging. Our delegation - much like Germany's - usually just "doesn't get it". A lot of older generation classical music and radio people. I have hope tho that the ladies are not gonna accept mediocrity
well they definitely got it in the music video. those visuals were *excellent*. best music video of the year in my opinion
I agreed mostly on SF1 but here I think you got a lot of things wrong.
In my opinion Belgium, Estonia are easy qualifiers - they are extremely powerful live.
While Romania is 100% not qualifiying, I do not see how this song would have a fighting chance, even with good staging.
Lithuania, Iceland is 50/50 - amazing vocals but the songs are not that impressive.
Similar with Poland, Denmark - really depends on the staging, songs are radio friendly but not that great live.
There not many countries to vote for Albania (balkan brothers), so I am also sure they wont qualify.
Cyprus will qualify probably, but they are gonna be on the lower end.
Greece close to qualifying.
Everything else, yeah.
Gustaph will be in the final