I think it’s kind of likely that they gave Slovenia and Armenia a bit worse ro because they will obviously qualify and they’ll give them a good ro in the final.
Even though she’s probably still going to qualify I feel bad for brunette being given the second slot but hopefully she gets a better spot in the final
@@han-oq6bo questionable its poor running order could mean it qualifies 5-10 place and then they might but it 1-8 in the grand final. Punishing a song that didnt do that well because they punished it in the first place. I hope they dont do this however as armenia is in my top 5
@@mc-cm4ze have you looked at what the producer has been doing with the final these last two years? Also if the uk managed 3rd in the 2nd slot in 2002, Armenia can do better than 5th here.
They had to put Denmark first to separate Denmark’s Breaking My Heart and Cyprus’s Break a Broken Heart, surely 😅 Also even though the semi-final starts at 5am for me in Australia, I’m definitely going to be up and voting my heart out for Romania, with such a bad spot in the running order they’ll need all the help they can get.
I never try to predict qualifiers. I've watched Eurovision for over 30 years, and every year there are shock non-qualifiers, and thus shock qualifiers. I'm still holding on to the hope that all Nordic entries makes it to the finale, though. 😅
thats one of the joys though. it would be nice to get 10 right one time, but otherwise the fact that it seems so impossible is a testament to how fun and unpredictable things are
Tom you’re so good at this. Year after year. Please keep it up, I check out lots of reactors/analysts and you’re just the best. Excited for your semi 1 vid. Love from Kilkenny
@@ESCTom hahahaha! Good one, my middle name is James so I was freaked out by your telepathic powers for a moment and then I got it. Got a spare eur100,000 going for my athletes foot treatments by any chance?
Although a strange choice, I really don't think Armenia will have any problems qualifying as long as she can pull off the live (which I have no doubts that she can)! Can't wait to hear it live im obsessed with her song
I think the fandom is overrating Future Lover. It's been NQ material for me from the minute I heard it. I'm predicting it will be the shock NQ (but I won't be shocked by it)
@@KevinMCombes It was my number 1 or 2 from the minute I heard it. Hauntingly beautiful and experimental. And I'm not Armenian btw, I'm Scandinavian :)
ha ha ha all the boxes!! hilarious! can I maybe suggest trying a cook book holder? having said that I do prefer your more exciting "Random Boxes" artistic installation!
The results of this semi are honestly going to be more interesting to me because it is just so open. Any one of these songs could come with a surprise package that impresses everyone and gets through (.... except for San Marino).
Yeah that's exactly what I want to happen. I want one country to come out of absolutely nowhere with an unbelievable package like my lucky day did and show that anyone who comes with an amazing idea can qualify.
For me, it was a no brainer either putting Australia OR Slovenia last. Bit strange not to put Belgium first. Romania doesn't have the best spot and the Albania/Lithuania section is understandable but will confuse people. Greece seems to have been given one of the best slots.
This is the semi with the surprises for me: never thought Denmark would open (2 Scandinavian openers, eh?), I'm shocked they put Armenia in 2nd because that song has a lot of buzz (perhaps mostly from other Armenians?) and I would've seperated Lithuania and Albania as they are the only two "slower" songs in that half.
It looks like they put the songs which are lower in the odds in the better positions to even out the chances. Only Romania got the short straw - low in odds and weak position. I like this running order.
To specify, we can vote ones per entry, in Denmark. We can vote 16 times in the semi in total, because there's 16 entries. But we can't vote more than one time for each entry. 🙂
I read somewhere the Danish head of delegation said they would be bringing the biggest show by Denmark in a few years. Which considering they had a giant chair in 2019, might mean that they have another big prop planned. Then the no. 1 draw would make more sense. It also suggest Armenia would not be bringing much props, maybe going for a more classical ballad staging.
Finding this semi pretty underwhelming if I'm being honest Tom My certainties to qualify will be Georgia, Australia, Austria. As for everything else..........it will depend on their staging and live performances. I really do think that everyone, except San Marino, has a shot at making the final. Maybe not the quality of semi 1 but i think definitely more unpredictable
I think it was you that mentioned something about how the San Marinese voting will be handled. Something to do w/Cyprus. Where have you seen this? I haven't heard anything about it. Given they don't have a unique phone system (piggyback on Italy's) can't they just move them to ESC app only voting (with telephone numbers registered wot their +378 dialing prefix)?
I think the person who gave me that information was incorrect. San Marino doesn't normally have a televote because it's too small, so they use a jury. Because their jury was rigging last year they needed to go to the televote aggregate of other countries have similar voting patterns. In that case they partially used the televote from Cyprus, but that's not a regular thing
I actually predicted 8 of the songs from both semi finals, which is more than I expected haha! Denmark as opener surprised me too! And Slovenia was for me the perfect closer, but australia is nice too
One thing ive observed over the last few years, I think since 2014 is that 1 of the openers or closers hasnt qualified. I think its usually been 1 doesnt qualify and the other 3 do but purely for fun and guessing a potential nq, I think Denmark is the most likely out of the openers/closers to nq. You were pretty spot on with your semi 2 runinng order, particularly the 2nd part of the first half onwards. We dont know the stagings planned for the songs but yeah, quite surprised about Ireland and Greeces draws in particular. Sad for Malta 😭. People arent happy with Armenia being 2nd but you can understand after a favourable position last year and a semi ballad this year, its not mad that they chose it to be 2nd.
Depends on if you are looking at jury and televote combined or only televote. If the later then the televote has sent both the opener and the closer through these last few years. The only exception being Armenia 2019 where she didn't qualify with either jury or televote.
And also Azerbajain 2018 now that I think about it, but that shows that we simply can't expect the qualifiers and such to be as per usual because the juries just aren't there. So is going to be interresting to see and later analyse after the final when we get all the points.
So my two cents on Denmark starting: the singer is super famous on tiktok and the ebu might hope their audience will tune in and see the whole show then. Its plenty of international people mostly in Asia. New markets.
Looks like a pretty fun semifinal, even if there aren't that many songs I really care about. Fantastic draw for Australia, one of my three faves here, and great to finish the show with a blast. Estonia has done OK for the first half, Slovenia not ideal but I'm confident that they will be strong enough. I'm surprised by Armenia in second spot but I can follow your explanation and think she's strong enough to qualify too. For Romania I guess this is the kiss of death, I don't see this qualifying unless he pulls something extremely spectacular out of his hat. I already predicted Greece will qualify, and still think it will do so. And I'm sticking to my opinion that Poland won't.
10 and 11 being so bad are not to do with ad breaks. That after songs 6 and 12 usually. Though ironically it does look like it will be after 5 and 10 this year.
Yeah matter of fact, Azerbaijan qualified in 10th with 100 and something points from the jury and 0 from the televote, I never liked fade to black but that's iconic
Riley will qualify. I don't understand why people are sleeping on it & making it borderline... It's a bop! He's hugely popular, has over 10+ million followers & now "rest of the world" gets to vote; increasing his chances even further.
I understand he's popular, but like, is he popular with people who watch ESC or are his fans watching for him... absolutely possible, but who knows. For me this is one of the worst songs this year, the way his voice is distorted is just unpleasent for me. If "people are sleeping on him" maybe they just feel like I do
I still have Slovenia as borderline, given their history and I don't think that slot has helped- they are woeful in the televote. Lithuania and Poland will get the 12 and 10 from UK. I hope Dilja won't be forgotten but am very worried.
I don’t want be a*hole here, but I laughed so hard when Armenia got the 2nd slot. Belgium is a better opener tbh! And I’m really excited for Greece qualifying.
im still feeling quite safe about Cyprus for now. theyre first half but got a good 1st half draw. For ICeland, i think it comes down to the staging. they need to improve it a lot
As a dane im nervous now. Cause starting the show. Some people might come in to late to the start of the show. And Reiley really has to stick out now. And im affraid our song is not strong enough to be remembered and will be forgotten when all 16 songs has been on. So im nervous for Denmark this gonna be anorther year we not gonna do it. And its a shame. Cause its a weak Semi-Final and our song is radio friendly and decent. So like i said the draw didnt help us any bit.
Well from what I've heard from the other Danes here, apparently they're going to be bringing quite big staging this year and they're being quite ambitious. Which is definitely different from last year where they had the laziest possible staging that they lifted from Dansk MGP
Looking at this my prediction for qualifiers is Armenia Cyprus Iceland Greece Slovenia Georgia Austria Albania Lithuania and Australia. The ones in the first half I'd put borderline and maybe swap is estonia for iceland and second half albania for poland but I do think denmark romania belgium and san marino are pretty dead in the water at this point
Thanks to the rest of the world vote, i can join in from Canada this year! 🇨🇦 Out of curiosity, how do you usually allocate your votes? Do you have a method? By the way thanks for these videos, being very new to Eurovision it's been helpful to hear from an expert!
Well I'm not sure how many times you're going to be allowed to vote. From most countries it's 20 Votes maximum and you have to pay for each of them. although some countries only allow you to vote for each country one time (denmark does this). Personally I go throw some votes towards my favourite to make sure that they're safe, and then my other votes are mostly strategically on someone who I think might be a borderline qualifier
The worst that could happen is that Romanian diaspora votes for Romania and Qs lol (most likely to happen so don't be that surprise) the same applies for Armenia.
I know it might not be a whole lotta people I feel like the Faroese diaspora will help both Iceland and Demark and that those two countries will also help each other out, will it be enough? idk but they will surely help each other. I also feel Poland should be pretty safe having UK, Lithuania (which will vote Poland higher than they will vote Estonia) and Ukraine voting in the semifinal unfortunately. And Romania has Spain which is twelve points guaranteed. If they don't make it through it will be the first year that they have Spain voting in their semi but they're not making it through, cause historically, every time spain voted in Romania's semi they qualified, and every time Spain didn't vote, they didn't make it.
If the organizers were trying to dispel myths on 'bad' spots surely they would have put Norway at 2nd and Malta 1st cuz Alessandra would qualify no matter the place
Well I think it's a minor priority, but I think they're aware of it considering that delegations will definitely be complaining to them about the running order. But their main priority is the show and making sure that it is entertaining. And Norway makes most sense as an opener because it's the opening song for the entire competition
as in semi 1, ad breaks are probably going to be after songs 5 and 10... I think Denmark and Belgium are qualifying, both are energetic songs which is a favour to televoters. I personally don't see Armenia and Romania qualifying. If there were juries present Armenia might have, but on televote alone in this case... meh, dunno. Romania has no chance in hell. Estonia has a killer ballad this year, probably one of the best. It'd be a shame if it didn't qualify. Cyprus has my favour to qualify but it'll rely on whether he can deliver the song live. Greece is probably a no-brainer altho personally I'm not a fan of the song. Iceland I think will be the Nordic that doesn't make it... out of all the Nordics songwise it isn't wowing. Poland, well... unless she delivers it live she might have a small chance but I doubt Poland will make it through. Slovenia might be a surprise qualifier here, being just before a break! it might also just be Indie enough for UK voters to dial their number. Georgia, imho are OUT. It's basically a lot of drums and shouty vocals. Juries would deffo kill it, but I doubt enough televoters will bother. San Marino... bye... Slovenia has their ticket. Although it's not common, it has happened before that 4 songs in a row made it through and I hope that's the case for Austria, Albania, Lithuania and Australia. Out of those I'm most confident about Austria and Australia. The toss of the coin will be between Albania and Lithuania. If Albania doesn't make it I guess Iceland or Armenia both have a chance. But overall those would be my choices...
Its's funny, that Austria this year has again number 13, in terms of the starting order. I hope, this year number 13 will be more lucky, for Austria, as last year (to me "Halo" was the better song, but unfortunately with a very bad live performance and staging. I hope, that "we" (from Austria), don't make the same mistake again, as last year 🙂
I loved Halo and even though the staging wasn't best, I was sure it would qualify TT last year it was my biggest regret of all the songs that didn't qualify...
@@martakeska5297 I think the same, that Austria was robbed of the final, last year. Of course Pia Maria did not sing very good, but here Semi Final performance was clearly her best performance of all her live performances
@@roylu8553 I loved how excited she was - it was clear she was so happy to be there, she wasn't very experienced then, am I right? I always appreciate it when performers on Eurovision stage are fans of ESC themselves - even if their vocals aren't best and their stage fright is visible. I'd rather have more artist that aren't 'the best' but appreciate the fact they got the chance to perform, then those well-experienced artist who don't care that much
@@martakeska5297 It was her very first live performance and there didn't even exist any song or live performance from Pia Maria, before the ESC. I also loved it, when Pia Maria was so happy, when the song finished; that was quite cute 🙂
Is the polish diaspora usually active? I hope not, not for Blanka. I know the romanian diaspora is never active and we have 1 milion people in all of the big 5.
I'm from Poland and to be honest, I don't think they're active at all. The only song in the past 10 years or so I could imagine getting votes from diaspora was "My Słowianie", even though it was cheesy and the performance cringy AF - but it was something Polish people abroad might actually like xD Most didn't qualify at all as they were either shitty/boring or just too weird/bad for big stage (Tulia Fire of love - I actually liked it but I wasn't surprised at all it didn't qualify; it sounded much better in studio version sung in Polish only). The ones that qualified and did quite good in the final were only Michał Szpak and Ochman last year and they were just good songs, not my favorites, but good quality and well performed.
It kind of pisses me off that they so clearly favoured Australia (again), particularly over Slovenia which has a crappy RO for the third semi in a row. It's like they have certain countries they want to protect at all costs (more about this when you post your semi 1 video, regarding Netherlands vs. Switzerland). And Greece, so uninteresting but so lucky *sigh*
I disagree strongly about Estonia. Think it's an easy qualifier. Add in the juries in the final and it's a contender for victory. Here's my qualifiers in order. 1. Australia 2. Austria 3. Estonia 4. Georgia 5. Cyprus 6. Armenia 7. Slovenia 8. Lithuania 9. Albania 10. Belgium
I don't agree with your view on Romania. Almost all the songs are boring. Romania will stand out. I don't see 3rd as bad. Plus, Armenia who comes before is overrated, the song is slow, only gets good by the end with the Armenian part and we've only seen the music video, who knows what they'll do on stage. And the song after, Estonia, is a boring ballad. Nice voice and all, but I don't see televoters going crazy over it. Theodor said the staging will be like nothing you have seen before in Eurovision-he wants it to be memorable in Eurovision history, so he won't go safe and simple I think, which is good in this semi IMO. Anyway, time will tell, this is only my televoter opinion/prediction.
@@anieladom7285 yes.....and I find it funny that before the running order was announced a lot of people were predicting Romania in 2nd spot because it was the "death spot". Now that Romania is in 3rd, now all of a sudden, it's the third spot actually the "death spot"-after we've heard about 2nd on and on. Lots of comments saying, no it's actually the 3rd lol. Mm-hm, sure. Running order does not matter much. If the song is likeable on the night, it will be voted from any position. This whole running order death spots thing is silly. Especially when you have only 16 songs in an already weak, boring semi. 10 songs less than in the final where it's packed.
@@ДикийАлекс-р8и You're the delusional one thinking NF staging and running order will affect Theodor in the weakest semifinal ever. The televoters will love him!!!
I'm 100% sure Austria, Armenia and Georgia will qualify
Armenia has qualified from the 2nd twice. In 2010 and 2015, coming 6th in the televote twice
I think it’s kind of likely that they gave Slovenia and Armenia a bit worse ro because they will obviously qualify and they’ll give them a good ro in the final.
Even though she’s probably still going to qualify I feel bad for brunette being given the second slot but hopefully she gets a better spot in the final
oh yea if she qualifies she is guaranteed a much better spot in the final
@@ESCTom what if she gets first half in the grand final
@@HailTheHordes 9 - 13th probably
@@han-oq6bo questionable its poor running order could mean it qualifies 5-10 place and then they might but it 1-8 in the grand final. Punishing a song that didnt do that well because they punished it in the first place. I hope they dont do this however as armenia is in my top 5
@@mc-cm4ze have you looked at what the producer has been doing with the final these last two years? Also if the uk managed 3rd in the 2nd slot in 2002, Armenia can do better than 5th here.
Australia finishing off this semi final is epic!!! I'm so happy 😊
They had to put Denmark first to separate Denmark’s Breaking My Heart and Cyprus’s Break a Broken Heart, surely 😅
Also even though the semi-final starts at 5am for me in Australia, I’m definitely going to be up and voting my heart out for Romania, with such a bad spot in the running order they’ll need all the help they can get.
I never try to predict qualifiers. I've watched Eurovision for over 30 years, and every year there are shock non-qualifiers, and thus shock qualifiers.
I'm still holding on to the hope that all Nordic entries makes it to the finale, though. 😅
thats one of the joys though. it would be nice to get 10 right one time, but otherwise the fact that it seems so impossible is a testament to how fun and unpredictable things are
I'm so happy about Australia closing! 💚💛
You are doing a FANTASTIC job this season. Probably most professional analyst out there. ❤
Thank you Marcepan 🥰
Estonia is such a great song with such an interesting and unique message. I hope it makes it through Alika is an incredible vocalist.
Im so happy that Australia is closing!!! 🇦🇺
Fun fact: If Armenia qualifies from spot 2 again, that is officially a three-peat for them (see 2010 and 2015).
I think Belgium will go through instead of Denmark seeing the running order. I am happy for Australia, I am more confident they will make it.
Now, I’m sure Australia will qualify because they close the semi. 👏👏
Tom you’re so good at this. Year after year. Please keep it up, I check out lots of reactors/analysts and you’re just the best. Excited for your semi 1 vid. Love from Kilkenny
Thank you DJ 🥰
@@ESCTom hahahaha! Good one, my middle name is James so I was freaked out by your telepathic powers for a moment and then I got it. Got a spare eur100,000 going for my athletes foot treatments by any chance?
Although a strange choice, I really don't think Armenia will have any problems qualifying as long as she can pull off the live (which I have no doubts that she can)! Can't wait to hear it live im obsessed with her song
The absolute shock I had during semi 1 when they kept announcing countries and not Ireland
omg i know. ill talk about it tomorrow but its a bit 😑
@@ESCTom can’t wait for the video!
your speed >>>>
I don't care why internet is so crazy about Armenia's second place right now. I see so many sad and angry comments, but Armenia is safe no matter what
Fr we should all be outraged for malta
I think the fandom is overrating Future Lover. It's been NQ material for me from the minute I heard it.
I'm predicting it will be the shock NQ (but I won't be shocked by it)
@@KevinMCombesfrom all the languages you spoke the language of truth lol
@@KevinMCombes It was my number 1 or 2 from the minute I heard it. Hauntingly beautiful and experimental. And I'm not Armenian btw, I'm Scandinavian :)
I love it so much but I’m actually scared for it
I will vote for Armenia, I love the song. ❤️💙🧡
Thankyou 🇦🇲❤️
ha ha ha all the boxes!! hilarious! can I maybe suggest trying a cook book holder? having said that I do prefer your more exciting "Random Boxes" artistic installation!
yea i might try that too, but they tend to tilt back quite far. Id love to find something i could hang it on, but that doesnt swing 🤔
The results of this semi are honestly going to be more interesting to me because it is just so open. Any one of these songs could come with a surprise package that impresses everyone and gets through (.... except for San Marino).
Yeah that's exactly what I want to happen. I want one country to come out of absolutely nowhere with an unbelievable package like my lucky day did and show that anyone who comes with an amazing idea can qualify.
For me, it was a no brainer either putting Australia OR Slovenia last. Bit strange not to put Belgium first. Romania doesn't have the best spot and the Albania/Lithuania section is understandable but will confuse people. Greece seems to have been given one of the best slots.
Greece - Victor Vernicos - absolutely my biggest grower of the moment
I'm happy for Belgium. it wil stand out in the middle of what is probably the slowest half of the season.
This is the semi with the surprises for me: never thought Denmark would open (2 Scandinavian openers, eh?), I'm shocked they put Armenia in 2nd because that song has a lot of buzz (perhaps mostly from other Armenians?) and I would've seperated Lithuania and Albania as they are the only two "slower" songs in that half.
It looks like they put the songs which are lower in the odds in the better positions to even out the chances. Only Romania got the short straw - low in odds and weak position. I like this running order.
Yea it kind of blows it even more wide open
And Malta.
To specify, we can vote ones per entry, in Denmark. We can vote 16 times in the semi in total, because there's 16 entries. But we can't vote more than one time for each entry. 🙂
Aaaaah ok interesting. Thanks for clarifying. I like that as a rule
Do you think if Sweden draws 1st half for the final that they’ll give Loreen the no.2 spot to dispel that myth? 🤔😂
Omg could you imagine? There would be several spontaneous combustions around Europe
With Sweden's Martin Österdahl running Eurovision? That has a snowball's chance in hell of happening. 😄 (I'd like to see it, but there's no chance).
@@ESCTom Has Sweden ever got 2nd spot either in semis or final?
Tom got the first 5 correct, I just had to re-order the magnets from my prediction comment: 1:🧲💔 2:🧲🔔 3:🧲🕺 4:🧲🌉 5:🧲🍫 ...
Denmark will have a big staging according to some source and maybe that's the reason EBU put them first.
I read somewhere the Danish head of delegation said they would be bringing the biggest show by Denmark in a few years. Which considering they had a giant chair in 2019, might mean that they have another big prop planned. Then the no. 1 draw would make more sense. It also suggest Armenia would not be bringing much props, maybe going for a more classical ballad staging.
Finding this semi pretty underwhelming if I'm being honest Tom
My certainties to qualify will be Georgia, Australia, Austria.
As for everything else..........it will depend on their staging and live performances. I really do think that everyone, except San Marino, has a shot at making the final.
Maybe not the quality of semi 1 but i think definitely more unpredictable
I think what it lacks in song quality, it makes up for in a nail biting qualifier announcement, which will have lots of surprises
I think it was you that mentioned something about how the San Marinese voting will be handled. Something to do w/Cyprus. Where have you seen this? I haven't heard anything about it. Given they don't have a unique phone system (piggyback on Italy's) can't they just move them to ESC app only voting (with telephone numbers registered wot their +378 dialing prefix)?
I think the person who gave me that information was incorrect. San Marino doesn't normally have a televote because it's too small, so they use a jury. Because their jury was rigging last year they needed to go to the televote aggregate of other countries have similar voting patterns. In that case they partially used the televote from Cyprus, but that's not a regular thing
I actually predicted 8 of the songs from both semi finals, which is more than I expected haha! Denmark as opener surprised me too! And Slovenia was for me the perfect closer, but australia is nice too
I wouldn’t count out San Marino yet. The have a good spot plus a revamp of the song is coming
i have to say as a decent hardcore fan. I had NO idea about that greek kid and his heritage XD
One thing ive observed over the last few years, I think since 2014 is that 1 of the openers or closers hasnt qualified. I think its usually been 1 doesnt qualify and the other 3 do but purely for fun and guessing a potential nq, I think Denmark is the most likely out of the openers/closers to nq.
You were pretty spot on with your semi 2 runinng order, particularly the 2nd part of the first half onwards.
We dont know the stagings planned for the songs but yeah, quite surprised about Ireland and Greeces draws in particular. Sad for Malta 😭.
People arent happy with Armenia being 2nd but you can understand after a favourable position last year and a semi ballad this year, its not mad that they chose it to be 2nd.
Depends on if you are looking at jury and televote combined or only televote. If the later then the televote has sent both the opener and the closer through these last few years. The only exception being Armenia 2019 where she didn't qualify with either jury or televote.
And also Azerbajain 2018 now that I think about it, but that shows that we simply can't expect the qualifiers and such to be as per usual because the juries just aren't there. So is going to be interresting to see and later analyse after the final when we get all the points.
Waiting for your analysis of semi 1, that's way juicier
will do tomorrow, there isnt enough time to get it out tonight and id rather do a bit of analysis and film with better light
@@ESCTom Thanks, I wondered where it was. Looking forward to it.
I had to google Cillian Murphy and Victor Vernicos, this startled me😳 Obviously I was little behind with the Eurovision joke news🙈
Don't feel bad, I went directly to Google too 😅
So my two cents on Denmark starting: the singer is super famous on tiktok and the ebu might hope their audience will tune in and see the whole show then. Its plenty of international people mostly in Asia. New markets.
Looks like a pretty fun semifinal, even if there aren't that many songs I really care about. Fantastic draw for Australia, one of my three faves here, and great to finish the show with a blast. Estonia has done OK for the first half, Slovenia not ideal but I'm confident that they will be strong enough.
I'm surprised by Armenia in second spot but I can follow your explanation and think she's strong enough to qualify too. For Romania I guess this is the kiss of death, I don't see this qualifying unless he pulls something extremely spectacular out of his hat.
I already predicted Greece will qualify, and still think it will do so. And I'm sticking to my opinion that Poland won't.
The boxes work well!
i kept hitting them with my elbow 😅
@@ESCTom I didn't notice. But I did notice that wonderful wedding portrait on the wall behind.
I definitely think Gustaph is going to be bringing some platforms with him based on this a bit like the NF staging
Hoping Iceland and Belgium will go through
10 and 11 being so bad are not to do with ad breaks. That after songs 6 and 12 usually. Though ironically it does look like it will be after 5 and 10 this year.
Are you going to do Semi final nr 1 as well?
Yea but tomorrow cos by the time I film and edit it would be 11pm which is a bad time to release a video
@@ESCTom okay
I can't imagine any of the countries in SF2 having big props tbhs.
yep me either. i thought Armenia might but i guess not if theyre in second
UK voting in this semi will help Lithuania but sadly also Poland. If Blanka sings like she did in nationals she may be 16th.
There's no way Poland will qualify!
Last year 04 in semis were Switzerland and Azerbaijan, both ballads and both did very poorly in televote…
Yeah matter of fact, Azerbaijan qualified in 10th with 100 and something points from the jury and 0 from the televote, I never liked fade to black but that's iconic
Riley will qualify. I don't understand why people are sleeping on it & making it borderline... It's a bop!
He's hugely popular, has over 10+ million followers & now "rest of the world" gets to vote; increasing his chances even further.
I understand he's popular, but like, is he popular with people who watch ESC or are his fans watching for him... absolutely possible, but who knows. For me this is one of the worst songs this year, the way his voice is distorted is just unpleasent for me. If "people are sleeping on him" maybe they just feel like I do
@@Elessar543 They have tuned the vocoder down already, look up melfest sweden😁
That's very stupid , Emma from Makta had 57 million views of a song in Italy and didn't qualify
I still have Slovenia as borderline, given their history and I don't think that slot has helped- they are woeful in the televote. Lithuania and Poland will get the 12 and 10 from UK. I hope Dilja won't be forgotten but am very worried.
I don’t want be a*hole here, but I laughed so hard when Armenia got the 2nd slot.
Belgium is a better opener tbh! And I’m really excited for Greece qualifying.
hey Tom, i'm just starting to have a feeling that both Iceland and Cyprus will be forgettable and pull a NQ
im still feeling quite safe about Cyprus for now. theyre first half but got a good 1st half draw.
For ICeland, i think it comes down to the staging. they need to improve it a lot
If your song is good you shouldn't care where you are put, you could put previous winners 2nd and they would still win
yea but its pretty difficult to come with an awesome song every year
As a dane im nervous now. Cause starting the show. Some people might come in to late to the start of the show. And Reiley really has to stick out now. And im affraid our song is not strong enough to be remembered and will be forgotten when all 16 songs has been on. So im nervous for Denmark this gonna be anorther year we not gonna do it. And its a shame. Cause its a weak Semi-Final and our song is radio friendly and decent. So like i said the draw didnt help us any bit.
Well from what I've heard from the other Danes here, apparently they're going to be bringing quite big staging this year and they're being quite ambitious. Which is definitely different from last year where they had the laziest possible staging that they lifted from Dansk MGP
Georgia and Ukraine will give votes to Armenia in that SF.
description :D
ooops. thanks, ill do it now
Looking at this my prediction for qualifiers is Armenia Cyprus Iceland Greece Slovenia Georgia Austria Albania Lithuania and Australia. The ones in the first half I'd put borderline and maybe swap is estonia for iceland and second half albania for poland but I do think denmark romania belgium and san marino are pretty dead in the water at this point
Thanks to the rest of the world vote, i can join in from Canada this year! 🇨🇦 Out of curiosity, how do you usually allocate your votes? Do you have a method?
By the way thanks for these videos, being very new to Eurovision it's been helpful to hear from an expert!
Well I'm not sure how many times you're going to be allowed to vote. From most countries it's 20 Votes maximum and you have to pay for each of them. although some countries only allow you to vote for each country one time (denmark does this). Personally I go throw some votes towards my favourite to make sure that they're safe, and then my other votes are mostly strategically on someone who I think might be a borderline qualifier
Is semifinal 1 coming soon?
ill do it tomorrow morning ❤️
It’s getting pretty hard for Romania to qualify 😭
Romania could be in 8th and you guys would still say it's a NQ. The televoters will love it.
@@anka6356 I hope that qualifies more than anything but at this point they really need a memorable staging (Croatia style)
for me RO is 1st
@@anieladom7285cool story bro
@@kaisersoze7328 Yeah really cool. For me RO is second only after Italy. Great song!!!
The worst that could happen is that Romanian diaspora votes for Romania and Qs lol (most likely to happen so don't be that surprise) the same applies for Armenia.
I know it might not be a whole lotta people I feel like the Faroese diaspora will help both Iceland and Demark and that those two countries will also help each other out, will it be enough? idk but they will surely help each other. I also feel Poland should be pretty safe having UK, Lithuania (which will vote Poland higher than they will vote Estonia) and Ukraine voting in the semifinal unfortunately. And Romania has Spain which is twelve points guaranteed. If they don't make it through it will be the first year that they have Spain voting in their semi but they're not making it through, cause historically, every time spain voted in Romania's semi they qualified, and every time Spain didn't vote, they didn't make it.
For Romania it's also UK. Lots of Romanians there.
@@anka6356 it's much more polish people in the uk than Romanians, the biggest Romanian Diaspora in Europe it's in spain
@@teddytete.mp3 I checked and, for what is worth, last year Romania got 12 points from Spain and 7 from UK in the semi (televote).
@@anka6356 that just proved my point, the uk televote will probably give 12 to Poland or Lithuania
@@teddytete.mp3 7 points is still a lot given the song that year, was my point.
You seem to have forgotten last year's winner on your chart
what chart are you talking about? can you tell me the timestamp pls?
I think Belgium and Albania will make it through.
If the organizers were trying to dispel myths on 'bad' spots surely they would have put Norway at 2nd and Malta 1st cuz Alessandra would qualify no matter the place
Well I think it's a minor priority, but I think they're aware of it considering that delegations will definitely be complaining to them about the running order. But their main priority is the show and making sure that it is entertaining. And Norway makes most sense as an opener because it's the opening song for the entire competition
as in semi 1, ad breaks are probably going to be after songs 5 and 10...
I think Denmark and Belgium are qualifying, both are energetic songs which is a favour to televoters. I personally don't see Armenia and Romania qualifying. If there were juries present Armenia might have, but on televote alone in this case... meh, dunno. Romania has no chance in hell.
Estonia has a killer ballad this year, probably one of the best. It'd be a shame if it didn't qualify.
Cyprus has my favour to qualify but it'll rely on whether he can deliver the song live. Greece is probably a no-brainer altho personally I'm not a fan of the song. Iceland I think will be the Nordic that doesn't make it... out of all the Nordics songwise it isn't wowing. Poland, well... unless she delivers it live she might have a small chance but I doubt Poland will make it through.
Slovenia might be a surprise qualifier here, being just before a break! it might also just be Indie enough for UK voters to dial their number.
Georgia, imho are OUT. It's basically a lot of drums and shouty vocals. Juries would deffo kill it, but I doubt enough televoters will bother.
San Marino... bye... Slovenia has their ticket.
Although it's not common, it has happened before that 4 songs in a row made it through and I hope that's the case for Austria, Albania, Lithuania and Australia. Out of those I'm most confident about Austria and Australia. The toss of the coin will be between Albania and Lithuania.
If Albania doesn't make it I guess Iceland or Armenia both have a chance. But overall those would be my choices...
I am in full panic mode for Slovenia at this point. It’s such a bad spot
Within this bunch? They're safe, no worries.
@@BodyAndSol96 listen, I hope you’re right. But I’ve been burned before, lol
For a bad song... heard it before
Hope Austria qualifies cuz they got the same spot last year and didnt make it
Its's funny, that Austria this year has again number 13, in terms of the starting order. I hope, this year number 13 will be more lucky, for Austria, as last year (to me "Halo" was the better song, but unfortunately with a very bad live performance and staging. I hope, that "we" (from Austria), don't make the same mistake again, as last year 🙂
I loved Halo and even though the staging wasn't best, I was sure it would qualify TT last year it was my biggest regret of all the songs that didn't qualify...
@@martakeska5297 I think the same, that Austria was robbed of the final, last year. Of course Pia Maria did not sing very good, but here Semi Final performance was clearly her best performance of all her live performances
@@roylu8553 I loved how excited she was - it was clear she was so happy to be there, she wasn't very experienced then, am I right? I always appreciate it when performers on Eurovision stage are fans of ESC themselves - even if their vocals aren't best and their stage fright is visible. I'd rather have more artist that aren't 'the best' but appreciate the fact they got the chance to perform, then those well-experienced artist who don't care that much
@@martakeska5297 It was her very first live performance and there didn't even exist any song or live performance from Pia Maria, before the ESC. I also loved it, when Pia Maria was so happy, when the song finished; that was quite cute 🙂
@@roylu8553 And now I love her even more
Why are Australia leaving??
Their contract ends this year. I would guess they’re signing a new one but the news about it is coming way later than usual
EBU, this may not be the best year to try to make the running order have low impact lol
Is the polish diaspora usually active? I hope not, not for Blanka. I know the romanian diaspora is never active and we have 1 milion people in all of the big 5.
I'm from Poland and to be honest, I don't think they're active at all. The only song in the past 10 years or so I could imagine getting votes from diaspora was "My Słowianie", even though it was cheesy and the performance cringy AF - but it was something Polish people abroad might actually like xD Most didn't qualify at all as they were either shitty/boring or just too weird/bad for big stage (Tulia Fire of love - I actually liked it but I wasn't surprised at all it didn't qualify; it sounded much better in studio version sung in Polish only). The ones that qualified and did quite good in the final were only Michał Szpak and Ochman last year and they were just good songs, not my favorites, but good quality and well performed.
About Blanka, it's really popular in Poland now, heavily promoted and played on radio all the time but I don't think it's popular abroad at all
@@martakeska5297 Popular due to Warner Music heavy pushing. I don't think foreign ESC fans like the talent-less person representing TVP this year lol
@@victoryacan I really hope they don't, that's the worst entry we've had since ... omg 2005 I suppose...
Don't understand believe in Austria, when they always flop with live and staging
One of Austria girls was vocals flat in Croatia 2020 selection
@@АлексейЗаботкин-т1х *serbia, teodora is serbian
Belgium "secret diamond"? It's more the "shite on the night". Belgium haven't sent a song this bad since Witloof Bay
Even San-Marino deserve to qualify more than Bejba
Basically it is handicapping. Logical really.
Well one thing is for sure. It’s going to make for one hell of an unpredictable semi final
It kind of pisses me off that they so clearly favoured Australia (again), particularly over Slovenia which has a crappy RO for the third semi in a row. It's like they have certain countries they want to protect at all costs (more about this when you post your semi 1 video, regarding Netherlands vs. Switzerland). And Greece, so uninteresting but so lucky *sigh*
I disagree strongly about Estonia. Think it's an easy qualifier. Add in the juries in the final and it's a contender for victory. Here's my qualifiers in order.
1. Australia
2. Austria
3. Estonia
4. Georgia
5. Cyprus
6. Armenia
7. Slovenia
8. Lithuania
9. Albania
10. Belgium
Reiley is possibly the worst even producer chosen opener ever
Second semi is so weak and boring so i don't care who will qualify except Austria and Australia :P
I don't agree with your view on Romania. Almost all the songs are boring. Romania will stand out. I don't see 3rd as bad. Plus, Armenia who comes before is overrated, the song is slow, only gets good by the end with the Armenian part and we've only seen the music video, who knows what they'll do on stage. And the song after, Estonia, is a boring ballad. Nice voice and all, but I don't see televoters going crazy over it.
Theodor said the staging will be like nothing you have seen before in Eurovision-he wants it to be memorable in Eurovision history, so he won't go safe and simple I think, which is good in this semi IMO. Anyway, time will tell, this is only my televoter opinion/prediction.
one of the songs that really stands out from the crowd. it will qualify
@@anieladom7285 yes.....and I find it funny that before the running order was announced a lot of people were predicting Romania in 2nd spot because it was the "death spot". Now that Romania is in 3rd, now all of a sudden, it's the third spot actually the "death spot"-after we've heard about 2nd on and on. Lots of comments saying, no it's actually the 3rd lol. Mm-hm, sure.
Running order does not matter much. If the song is likeable on the night, it will be voted from any position. This whole running order death spots thing is silly. Especially when you have only 16 songs in an already weak, boring semi. 10 songs less than in the final where it's packed.
@@ДикийАлекс-р8и You're the delusional one thinking NF staging and running order will affect Theodor in the weakest semifinal ever. The televoters will love him!!!
Armenian 🇦🇲💪👍👍 winner 100,%
Where is semi final 1 running order analysis? 🥲
Just filmed it. Will upload later
Armenia 2nd if they dont qual im about to start a war She is my wife just she is shy to say its offcial 🫣