Professor Niall Ferguson on China's trade war with the U.S., whether Donald Trump will win a second term, and the political rest in Hong Kong. Broadcast on 2020.01.09.
Always a pleasure to listen Niall Ferguson … I don't always agree on everything what he says but he always makes me think or re-think my opinion about certain issues. Hope he stays in the game for many years to come ...
It is always entertaining to listen to Niall Ferguson - not because his insights are particularly profound but because he often encapsulates the latest American 'spin' on current events. *There is a deliberate mischaracterisation of current geopolitical tensions to minimise the extent to which America desires to preserve the current financial and economic system at the expense of the rest of the world, not just China.* This is *not* Cold War 2.0 or even rivalry between pre-WW1 Britain and Germany. This is all about the transition from 'unipolarity' to 'multipolarity' and how the unipolar power seeks to prevent this transition.
Me too, although my favorite is the War of the World series...absolute masterpiece - by the way, I think Ferguson is underestimating Sanders, what do you think ?
Great insight. Regarding Iran, the situation is as follows: Maximum pressure policy has worked well, but not the way president Trump had originally thought. Iranians will ultimately prefer to encounter the United States rather than submit to humiliating negotiation.
They wont - in my opinion, the Iranian government is much smarter than you seem to think...the Iranian elite doesnt have the same nihilistic mindset as the 19 hijackers or isis, that is to say, they are probably not so suicidal....They are also smart enough to know that a shooting war with America equals instant suicide and will probably trigger a world war. Which is evident by the milktoast token response to having their most important general killed on President Trumps order The ayatollah seems much more like a wannabe machiavellian snake. That is not to say that he doesnt genuinely believe in some extremely radical islamic principles (we can infer that by the theological essays that the published), but I would bet that he and the leadership of the revolutionary guard corps are not interested in the end of the world and they dont seem eager to throw away their life for some metaphysical bullshit either. In my opinion, the true enemy in the middle east remains wahabism, which has its origins in saudi arabia
We have schmucks like you in the U.S. They're called Trump supporters. When you think about it, Trump, Farage, and Boris are really all part of the same movement. At least they're all part of the same Russian intel operation.
@@perperson199 In the most gentle way possible, you say? How achingly polite, how very British of you. Well as we say here in the southern parts of the United States, bless your heart. But let's dispense with the faux pleasantries, shall we? So tiresome. Fascism has once again reared its ugly head in the world and the only question that matters is this: Which side are you on?
Sure hes a populist, but there would be no Brexit without Farage. He was the one who consistently pushed the Tories towards leaving the EU and held their feet to the fire during the WA negotiations. Considering his impact, its churlish to criticize his electoral strategy. And to call him an idiot says more about the speaker than Farage.
Hong Kong is Scottish? I don't think they have deep-fried Mars Bars or haggis. Much better food in Hong Kong. And a much better climate. As an Englishman, I have never been kicked in the face and spat on in Hong Kong.
I love the response to the question on Trump destabilizing the middle east...that presumens there is a stable situation to destabilize...These questions are typical of mainstream journalist (CNN, Bloomberg) perspectives and veiled criticism of anything Trump.
N. Ferguson may rattle as he will, it makes no difference. Suppose I am building an aeroplane. While I’m doing it, N. Ferguson is rattling that it won’t fly. I ignore him. I just keep on building my aeroplane, and it flies. The rattler keeps on rattling. So what? N. Ferguson may rattle as he will - don’t feed the troll. Paul Krugman said that too. N. Ferguson can’t stand that.
OPINION ARE LACED WITH BIAS, and this man's opinion is no different. Yes Hong Kong is not rules by the people of HK but by the Communist Party of China and that is all that matters ! CPC does not decide by counting heads but by the leaders of the Communist Party of China; these are the points that decide everything in China. The people of Hong Kong are not Chinese and they need to know who they are. Do you think 1.4 billion can be stared down by 7 million people of Hong Kong or do they think the USA and the west will help them fight off China ? However, the time for reckoning is upon us with this coronavirus; HK people will now need to find a means of making a living ! Let us see what the average HK family can expect post "rioting ?"
Shpira HR McMaster (who penned the “principled realism” National Security doctrine to which you allude) is at the Hoover Institute along with Niall and Ferguson has mentioned reading this so I’m sure he’s aware, he’s just trying to be entertaining
2008-2009 financial crisis was the transition point, prior to that point US helped China more, since that point China has been helping US more. The problem is Americans don't like to see the coming role changes. Sooner the US politicians reached consensus view China is the threat sooner the second phase could progress forward. Niall is shortsighted again. ChiAmerica is good for world.
*The interviewer (Jodi Schneider) is absolutely insufferable.* Her repeated snarky digs at Trump aren't appreciated except by her fellow media leftists. And maybe she didn't notice, but Prof Ferguson deftly ignored or refuted each one. Moreover, she should be the absolutely last to throw stones, given that her boss Bloomberg told his network - which she works for - not to investigate him or other Dem candidates.
*I have great respect for Niall Ferguson, but he's dead wrong on Nigel Farage.* Far from a "halfwit," Farage was pivotal, clever, and bold. For 3 years, Remainer Tories dominated Parliament and the PM was a Remainer Tory. Farage was one of the few voices arrayed against them and Remoaners in powerful cultural positions. Farage had just reconstituted the Brexit Party, and he was willing to gamble on another Tory - Boris Johnson - by standing Brexit candidates down in Tory districts. *Farage deserves far better from Niall.*
Always a pleasure to listen Niall Ferguson … I don't always agree on everything what he says but he always makes me think or re-think my opinion about certain issues. Hope he stays in the game for many years to come ...
I like the way he speaks, slow, focused and thoughtful.
Downplaying HK protests like faceless.
Always great to imbibe Nialls insights. Keep up the good work y’all
It is always entertaining to listen to Niall Ferguson - not because his insights are particularly profound but because he often encapsulates the latest American 'spin' on current events. *There is a deliberate mischaracterisation of current geopolitical tensions to minimise the extent to which America desires to preserve the current financial and economic system at the expense of the rest of the world, not just China.* This is *not* Cold War 2.0 or even rivalry between pre-WW1 Britain and Germany.
This is all about the transition from 'unipolarity' to 'multipolarity' and how the unipolar power seeks to prevent this transition.
Great insight following him from the days of Ascent of Money
Me too, although my favorite is the War of the World series...absolute masterpiece - by the way, I think Ferguson is underestimating Sanders, what do you think ?
Thanks for Uploading.
Niall Ferguson, great at looking back in history, absolutely terrible at looking and predicting the future
Can a bunch of super-rich people not rustle up a hands-free mic so he doesn't have to hold a mic all the time?
Great insight. Regarding Iran, the situation is as follows: Maximum pressure policy has worked well, but not the way president Trump had originally thought. Iranians will ultimately prefer to encounter the United States rather than submit to humiliating negotiation.
They wont - in my opinion, the Iranian government is much smarter than you seem to think...the Iranian elite doesnt have the same nihilistic mindset as the 19 hijackers or isis, that is to say, they are probably not so suicidal....They are also smart enough to know that a shooting war with America equals instant suicide and will probably trigger a world war. Which is evident by the milktoast token response to having their most important general killed on President Trumps order
The ayatollah seems much more like a wannabe machiavellian snake. That is not to say that he doesnt genuinely believe in some extremely radical islamic principles (we can infer that by the theological essays that the published), but I would bet that he and the leadership of the revolutionary guard corps are not interested in the end of the world and they dont seem eager to throw away their life for some metaphysical bullshit either. In my opinion, the true enemy in the middle east remains wahabism, which has its origins in saudi arabia
Funny that Ferguson is calling Farage a halfwit, having so thoroughly embarrassed himself in his assaults on Boris
We have schmucks like you in the U.S. They're called Trump supporters. When you think about it, Trump, Farage, and Boris are really all part of the same movement. At least they're all part of the same Russian intel operation.
@@ryanpatterson2774 May I ask, in the most gentle way possible, are you a troll or just an ignorant bigot ? One does wonder with people like you
@@perperson199 In the most gentle way possible, you say? How achingly polite, how very British of you. Well as we say here in the southern parts of the United States, bless your heart. But let's dispense with the faux pleasantries, shall we? So tiresome. Fascism has once again reared its ugly head in the world and the only question that matters is this: Which side are you on?
Sure hes a populist, but there would be no Brexit without Farage. He was the one who consistently pushed the Tories towards leaving the EU and held their feet to the fire during the WA negotiations. Considering his impact, its churlish to criticize his electoral strategy. And to call him an idiot says more about the speaker than Farage.
Building other people’s air bases is GOOD FOR AMERICAN BUSINESSES!
Hong Kong is Scottish? I don't think they have deep-fried Mars Bars or haggis. Much better food in Hong Kong. And a much better climate. As an Englishman, I have never been kicked in the face and spat on in Hong Kong.
I think he was being witty about the numerous Scottish place names in HK. Which the audience recognised through their laughter.
How do neither of them mention tariffs when they talk about China's economic situation
I love the response to the question on Trump destabilizing the middle east...that presumens there is a stable situation to destabilize...These questions are typical of mainstream journalist (CNN, Bloomberg) perspectives and veiled criticism of anything Trump.
BAD (Horrible) AUDIO!!! Needs filtering of “plosive consonants” (pop filtering).
N. Ferguson may rattle as he will, it makes no difference.
Suppose I am building an aeroplane. While I’m doing it, N. Ferguson is rattling that it won’t fly. I ignore him. I just keep on building my aeroplane, and it flies. The rattler keeps on rattling. So what?
N. Ferguson may rattle as he will - don’t feed the troll. Paul Krugman said that too. N. Ferguson can’t stand that.
Sort out your mikes!
OPINION ARE LACED WITH BIAS, and this man's opinion is no different. Yes Hong Kong is not rules by the people of HK but by the Communist Party of China and that is all that matters ! CPC does not decide by counting heads but by the leaders of the Communist Party of China; these are the points that decide everything in China. The people of Hong Kong are not Chinese and they need to know who they are. Do you think 1.4 billion can be stared down by 7 million people of Hong Kong or do they think the USA and the west will help them fight off China ? However, the time for reckoning is upon us with this coronavirus; HK people will now need to find a means of making a living ! Let us see what the average HK family can expect post "rioting ?"
Hes playing the flute here, a bit two faced.
I agree that “a Cold War IS A GOOD IDEA” even though disagree that we’re currently in a Cold War ...
IR theory, don Corleone? Its called realism? Yes thats pretty much EXACTLY what it says. LOL
Shpira
HR McMaster (who penned the “principled realism” National Security doctrine to which you allude) is at the Hoover Institute along with Niall and Ferguson has mentioned reading this so I’m sure he’s aware, he’s just trying to be entertaining
@@hugehairyfetus I was referring more to Kenneth Waltz...but yes, I am sure Ferguson is well aware of the entire canon.
2008-2009 financial crisis was the transition point, prior to that point US helped China more, since that point China has been helping US more. The problem is Americans don't like to see the coming role changes. Sooner the US politicians reached consensus view China is the threat sooner the second phase could progress forward. Niall is shortsighted again. ChiAmerica is good for world.
I think Niall will be wrong again, Chiamerica will survive even through Trump. But the role will be reversed compared with the time of 2006.
*The interviewer (Jodi Schneider) is absolutely insufferable.* Her repeated snarky digs at Trump aren't appreciated except by her fellow media leftists. And maybe she didn't notice, but Prof Ferguson deftly ignored or refuted each one. Moreover, she should be the absolutely last to throw stones, given that her boss Bloomberg told his network - which she works for - not to investigate him or other Dem candidates.
*I have great respect for Niall Ferguson, but he's dead wrong on Nigel Farage.* Far from a "halfwit," Farage was pivotal, clever, and bold. For 3 years, Remainer Tories dominated Parliament and the PM was a Remainer Tory. Farage was one of the few voices arrayed against them and Remoaners in powerful cultural positions. Farage had just reconstituted the Brexit Party, and he was willing to gamble on another Tory - Boris Johnson - by standing Brexit candidates down in Tory districts. *Farage deserves far better from Niall.*
Sigh. What a waste of questions...
Farage a half-wit? now come on, what an arrogant statement!!
Teddy - Farage seems to be getting what he has worked for over a quarter-century, so I don’t see how “half-wit” fits.
He’s turning into a left winger.
Niall Ferguson? A left winger? Impossible!