Chaos in the Climate Casino
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 23 мар 2024
- The Climate Emergency Forum welcomes Dr. Eliot Jacobson, a retired professor turned climate researcher. The discussion delves into the complexities of the 1.5-degree IPCC global average temperature goal.
This video was recorded on March 4th, 2024, and published on March 24th, 2024, and represents the opinions of the discussion participants.
In the detailed dialog provided, Dr. Eliot Jacobson, a retired professor turned climate researcher, delves into the complexities of the 1.5-degree IPCC global average temperature goal and the challenges in accurately measuring temperature anomalies above the pre-industrial baseline. He criticizes the varying methods used by different sources to calculate these anomalies and highlights discrepancies in reporting, emphasizing the need for a more standardized approach to convey this crucial information.
Furthermore, Dr. Jacobson discusses his own analysis based on Copernicus data, revealing a higher rate of warming at 0.3 degrees Celsius per decade compared to previous estimates. This leads him to assert that the current temperature anomaly is around 1.38 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline, indicating a faster pace of warming than commonly acknowledged. He predicts that at this rate, the world is likely to surpass the 1.5-degree goal by 2028, highlighting the urgency of addressing climate change.
The discussion also extends to how insurance companies are grappling with escalating risks due to abrupt weather changes, hinting at broader societal implications and challenges posed by a rapidly changing climate landscape.
Links:
- Advanced Advantage Play
www.amazon.com/Advanced-Advan...
- The Blackjack Zone
www.amazon.ca/Blackjack-Zone-...
- July 2023 sees multiple global temperature records broken
climate.copernicus.eu/july-20...
- Paris Agreement
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_A...
- Global Warming in the Pipeline and Earth's Energy Imbalance (CEF Video)
• Global Warming in the ...
- Copenhagen Accord
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copenha...
- United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
unfccc.int/resource/docs/conv...
- No 1.5 Without Intervention (CEF Video)
• No 1.5 Without Interve...
- Explaining Extreme Weather Events from a Climate Perspective
www.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/ams...
- Texas on Fire (CEF Video)
• Texas on Fire
- International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interna...
- Monitoring the ocean heat content change and the Earth energy imbalance from space altimetry and space gravimetry
essd.copernicus.org/articles/...
- Contemporary Casino Table Game Design
www.amazon.com/Contemporary-C...
- Climate Confusion
skepticalscience.com/Climate_...
Special Guest:
Dr. Eliot Jacobson - is a retired professor of mathematics, computer science, as well as a casino industry consultant. He has authored four books, three on casino games and one poetry book. Since retiring in 2017, he has become well known in the climate world as a climate researcher appearing recently on CNN, as well as many climate oriented programs with a large number of followers on Twitter.
Regular Panelists:
Dr. Peter Carter - MD, Expert IPCC Reviewer and the director of the Climate Emergency Institute
Paul Beckwith - Climate Systems Scientist. Professor at the University of Ottawa's Paleoclimatology Laboratory as well as at Carleton University
Panelist & Video Production:
Charles Gregoire - Electrical Engineer, Webmaster and IT prime for FacingFuture.Earth & the Climate Emergency Forum; Climate Reality Leader
Video Production:
Heidi Brault - Video production and website assistant, Organizer and convener, Metadata technician, COP team lead for the Climate Emergency Forum and Facing Future; BA (Psychology); Climate Reality Leader
Our Website:
climateemergencyforum.org/
Attributions:
Background Music:
- Title: Through the City II
- Author: Crowander
- Source: Free Music Archive
- License: CC BY-NC 4.0
Image and Video: climateemergencyforum.org/ass...
#climatescience #climatecrisis #climateresearch
When a person has a terminal illness, it is a profound wrong for the doctor to lie and say, “Oh, you’re gonna be fine.” It denies to patient’s need to have their grief, heal their relationships, assess and make peace with their lives, including….finding gratitude for the life they have lived.
true, I hear Guy McPhersons Words shining through
@@thunderstorm6630I don’t follow McPherson. Left Nature Bats Last years ago after he blew up a several relationships unnecessarily, in my opinion.
The patient doesn't want to hear it.
@@user-hz6vm7xh8mIn this case, I agree with you.
@@thunderstorm6630 Haven’t followed him for years.
I personally respect "doomers" for their brutal honesty.
I thought the "birthday" was going to be the 200th anniversary of Joseph Fourier stating that CO2 warms the planet.
I think Eunice Foote may have discovered Carbon dioxide traps the earths heat.
An accelerating rate of increase implies an out-of-control runaway train type of situation.
The talk at the beginning of this video about a constant temperature raise per decade fails to understand the basic fact this is a non linear problem. The rate of change is x^n not x+n.
Best comment in this field. Peace!
This is why I use people as my indicator, now. Whenever someone notes there's a difference from what they remember, I ask them when that memory is from. It seems universal that we're able to notice year over year change, now, which means we're heading into month-to-month, which bleeds into a constant, accelerating catastrophe
Mother Nature tells Climate Change: "Hold my Beer"
He says beware of strong drink 🍸 ! 💒💝
We live in Oklahoma USA and we just had the warmest winter ever. It also appears that Oklahoma is the eye of a weather pattern for the North American continent. Very strange weather.
Has anyone had another Vertical Atmospheric River Rapids besides Greenland?
Here in Montana we just had 30 days of below zero and the coldest March on record.
@@mrs.seaturtle66allen78here in Kentucky the winters are very warm and last much longer all the way up to early November before it starts getting colder
"We are in the middle of the first phase of total chaos." You forgot the obligatory "faster than expected".
And he's supposed to tell us what we need to do to keep going as usual.
I celebrate Eliot Jacobson for his uncompromised, mercyless proclamation of the predicament humans impose onto Earth. Compared to him, people like Paul and Peter appear as if they were still in the "bargaining" phase of grief, while Eliot not only has accepted, but looks right in the face of the storm.
Very glad you had my friend (I wish he was) and defender of life on... Dr Eliot Jacobson. Well done Eliot.
He was a great guest.
We're probably above 2degrees C, if you calculate from the true baseline, of 1750.
when can we collectively accept our fate like the characterrrs in the final scene of "don''t look up?" and move on to the important things/people
That's what I've been wondering for years. When do we put all this meddling down and just enjoy the time we have left, ideally and justifiably funded by the wealth that ensured our extinction. I just want a few months as a human where the people I love understand why I've been avoiding planes, cars, and burning fuel more generally.
How refreshing it is to behold such honesty, on this grim subject. Thanks for the total absence of sugarcoating
At least for the entirety of the first half! I have to return later for the remainder.
Glad you enjoyed it!
Bravo à vous et merci beaucoup.
@@ClimateEmergencyForum new to your channel. We can thank the government powers that be for much of our climate now. Weathermodificationhistory.com may be of great interest to you. #CirrusCloudsMatter #cirruscloudsmatter
The first rule of gambling with our one and only home in the Universe: the house ALWAYS wins.
And never argue the odds with a math professor/ casino expert
The problem we are running into trying to forecast this stuff in my untutored opinion is that the numbers are changing so fast that the conditions on the ground can’t keep up and therefore Paleo climatic data has limited use even in abrupt changes
I'm wondering if any scientist has done a best-fit exponential curve model for the long term temperature actuals instead of the "linear model" that is currently being discussed? I would love to hear the parameters if available.
I am with Peter here!, why not go with the ocean, the ocean is the master of earth climate change. Thanks!!
I just watched someone sinking ships near Iraq and Yemen. What is testing all these nuclear weapons, computer storage facilities, oil spills and platforms, deep sea dredging, and huge ships being bombed and sunk, going to do to the ocean? It can't be good.
The Sun. No sun, no heat. Tell me I am wrong.
Currently I see two types of people described like this. You are tied to a railroad track with no hope of freeing yourself and you can hear the train coming. One type of person will turn around to see how close the train is and the other will not. Unfortunately the latter is the prevalence. Those with good news will always be preferred over bad news even if the bad news is true and the good news false.
You can always hope that the brakeman will save you, but once you know that the company has ordered all train employees to just run people down because stopping cuts into profits - then hope disappears. Climate is a function of capitalism and that is why it's hopeless.
GLOBAL WARMING IS GOOD NEWS IF YOU RESIDE IN SIBERIA. ❤
Too late for co2 removal.
The percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere is 0.04%. It's went up by 0.01% over the last 30 years. Oh, guess what, the earth as a result is now 20% greener. Wow. What a horrible thing that is. I can not believe that people are actually buying into them demonizing a vital element of human life. Carbon Capture. lol. You know that if the percentage of CO2 falls below 0.02% plant life begins to die. And guess what happens then people? This is the biggest con job in human history. Of course if you can get people to wear useless masks, follow arrows and stand on dots, I guess you can make them believe anything.
We are already at 2.3 above with methane factored in.
How do you get there? I'm serious. I am between 1.98 and 2.08
@@pokemon42jodeldodel97No it is exactly 1.9876
Best CEF episode yet, excellent panel of experts
Thank you so much for your support!
There have been so many best episodes - I cannot thank you enough for the *_straightforward science and context_* you always gift us with.
@@earthsystemThank you - much appreciated!
Agreed 👍
I don't think even the house wins in this casino.
"As long as humans have been around" is a key point. I started watching "Climate: A Movie" this morning. It's a climate change is nothing to worry about video.
One of the arguments was that the earth was much warmer, CO2 much higher and life more abundant during the dinosaur time.
What is missed is the the dinosaur species didn't recover because the earth never did return to the temperatures that existed when they roamed.
The cooler temperatures are more friendly to warm blooded mammals, hence the reason humans could evolve into existence.
Regardless of how long in takes, if the earth returns to the dinosaur temperatures, humans go extinct or are pushed to the poles.
56 million years ago earth was not at all like now, eat that banana lol
Our species is great at cognitive fogginess that warps and distorts any facts so they can fit whatever story we like or believe. We are masters of the false equivalency too! Comparing and contrasting things that have so much more depth and nuance and so can’t be accurately compared, that’s what social media is built on these days.
IMO "social" media energizes emotional feelings, and dulls logical consideration of facts and consequence. Social behavior ~== herd instinct.
I too made the mistake of watching that film. “Lies, damned lies, and statistics.” It’s true that there are people making profits from perceived alleviations of the threats, but that doesn’t invalidate the reality of the threat.
ecocentrichomestead6783 Hi, it's not the temperature, it's the rate of change that's the problem. Species are unable to move location and/or to adapt in such a short time frame as we humans are creating by our biogeoengineering of the planet on timescales of decades not millenia.
Don't worry, just shift the baseline again and it's all good. We can keep indulging the 1.5 degree fantasy.
“In this era of people just making stuff up” said with no sense of irony 😂
Delta 2.1 degrees C average in the year 2030 is my prediction.
"And you won't hear anybody else saying that."
Guy McPherson, Andrew Glikson, and Peter Carter don't exist then I guess
Exactly! I've challenged both these fellows before b/c they always finds some way to discount or demean GMcP who has been truth telling way before and way more clearly and boldly than both of these hopium dealers. Beckwith is much the worse of the two. They love hearing the sound of their own voice. We're beyond 2C already and we won't make it past 2030 so all this recalculation of the decadal rate is empty nonsense.
When people call me a doomed I just check my clock and I can tell it's their nap time.
I just watched a documentary on Greenland there used to be pine forests there. A large area in Greenland never gets above freezing and the mountains average 10-12 thousand feet high. If we are warming it's manageable. Getting rid of all gas powered vehicles in America will not do anything. This is more about money and power than climate change.
“You can do the math, right?”
No, that’s the reason I’m here.😂
Humans deserve EVERYTHING that is coming our way.
I agree 🥳
Not only humans...all the other life on the planet also is in the same boat as us.
Agree with the last point, what did the other animals do to deserve this, eh?
@@edtremblay6694 non human life is more innocent, it is the conscious and moral human animal that can deserve the consequences of their actions.
What about the babies and children that have to grow up in this environment but had no bearing in it's making? I'm only 17 but I work with kids (pre-k and kindergarten) and it's heartbreaking knowing what they might have to deal with even by the time they get to my current age.
All the hopium that exists or can exist cannot change the math of 2+2 = 4. Sorry folks but 2+2 will never equal 3. Thanks Elliot!!!
Can it at least equal 1.5? Pretty please?
@@quertiqr Not even 3.999999
we’re past 2 degrees c already
Depends on when you consider the 'pre-industrial' baseline to have ended.
Good. Less heating needed and less CO2
@@markarchambault4783 Does it, though? It feels like we're bickering over the intensity of the fire consuming the building we're all trapped in, questioning the alarms going off because they were made in China. "Shit's on fire, yo"
I've heard 3.5c starting from the late 1700's.
Just a quick comment about insurance companies, I have been reading the text of the 900 page 2025 project and I just ran across their agenda for government emergency insurance coverage for high risk locations. From what I can tell, they plan to eliminate that option. If this is implemented through a possible conservative presidency (trump heeded many of their policy suggestions in his previous term) there will likely be no recourse for millions of Americans caught in climate disaster scenarios.
That's not going to matter. Earth will not be inhabitable much longer.
I live in Florida…. No insurance cause it’s astronomically priced.
If my house blows apart in a Hurricane… I’ll be pulling out the sticks and rebuilding a tiny house with what’s left.
Come on , there are loads more important things to worry about on the front pages like NIKE HAVE MESSED WITH ST GEORGES FLAG. we are truly dumb as ,,,
If AMOC shutdown happens in 100 years, then Europe is fine. Global warming at the same period of the time is nearing that number by 2100... Current trend is toward 3-5C warming. And adding more rapid land area warming, that may mean 5-10C warming minus whatever AMOC shutdown does (4C drop in temp? leading to 1-6C local warming across Europe? In many places we have passed 2C local warming already...).
But yea, overall changes that occurs for these events would be devastating for everyone. Even if temperature balances, the weather does not. And rest of the world warms even more making too many places hostile for 36,5C based life.
8.2 BILLION is the number our fellow earthlings are concerned with…human centrism is why WASF
🔥🔥🌏🔥🔥
What about New Zealand? I have family there, should we make the effort to move there, for my 4 year old..?
Depends on your family already there. Will they help you settle in, will they help you through hard times? What about family here? Is there an immigration fee or minimum available funds? One million comes to mind. From a decade ago. Maybe it’s different with family already there. Good luck. 🍀 Maybe check out New England instead.
Wow, that'd be a great opportunity if you managed it. I foolishly passed up the chance in the 70s and now it's nearly impossible.
I knew then it'd be the last, best place to be but didn't consider they'd close the gates so soon.
I wish you the best of luck.
Thank you Dr. Jacobson et al. for an Outstanding CEF presentation. 53.09 minute video. That means 3,185.4 seconds. Multiply times 12 Hiroshima bombs that we are heating the global oceans. Bottom line: 37,224.8 bombs just released during the length of your excellent discussions. Mind-boggling....
I can't comprehend this mindless continuance heat output. I barely travel anymore, never by plane. A few months of purple carrot food boxes turned me vegan (so tasty and energizing), Walking through a Target is gut wrenching, i shop THRIFT-Store. I am unable to be part of the hypnotized human species. Shows like Climate Emergency Forum connect me with my actual species: people unchained from herd instinct.
My ancestors are herbal medicine doctors on my mother's side, they would predict weather as well . they've been doing it for 500 years before i came to life. My grandfather was a professor of bio chemistry.
In Australia it is good to learn how the native used plants. There are also naturalised plants from Europe and Asia you can use.
I thought you were going to give us some insight on what they thought or something lol
Listening for the second time. Much to understand here.
the assumption of a linear rate of warming is already fatal
Casino generate tons of co2 every year
A very interesting discussion.
Hope is how you accept your demise.
Hope was the only great evil that did not escape pandoras box.
Excellent
Thank you so much 😀
Thank you so much!
The Met in the Met Office stands for Meteorological not Metropolitan!
Thanks to you all , myself living in West Virginia is my safe spot
Thank you so much for your support.
I really don't understand how anyone can say the planet has warmed by 1.whaterver. the artic has warmed by how much in comparison? It's way more than the 1.5 degrees. Probably closer to 8 to 10 degrees. The north and south poles are the going to be the biggest driver of global heating.
The poles are a net heat sink. The tropical seas ( and to a land to a lesser extent) is the driver. Pity these super-duper sophisticated climate models bring it all down to a single arbitrary useless number.
I hope some day the models will consider that the earth is 70% ocean and 30% land, that the tropics 0-30, the mid latitudes 30-60 and the polar regions 60-90 are quite different as is day/night and clear/cloudy sky. We can handle 2*3*2*2 = 24 indicators/metrics to give us an idea what might be happening, where and when.
talking about global sea surface temps... i was in Costa Rica a few weeks ago. I used to live there 4 years ago, went back to the same place. Uvita / Dominical beaches.
walking the shoreline with feet in the water, the sea water felt like luke warm bath water. it was unmistakably WARM. granted it was sunset time, and it was cloudy and raining at the time, but the water was WARM rather than cold. It wasnt like that when i live there 4 years ago. i remember then, it wasnt cold, it was a comfortable temp, maybe hinging on warm-ish. but now, it is unmistakably WARM. not good
concerning risk you should invite Frederike Otto , she has done some very valuable work on risks of climate events with her new research field attribution studies, she is at Emperial College London
Yes, they're all highly paid at Imperial to keep this narrative going 🤑🤑🤑
We've already blow through the 2.c global average from the 1750 baseline for quite sometime!
Really? Last I checked we exceeded 1.5C in 2024
I could understand concern for ocean temperatures if it went up 15° more, but I (and I bet most people) can't see a difference between say 85°F and 87°F. Both are just a nice warm day.
Can y'all explain what would happen if oceanic temps. go up 10°, and do you think people should stop using fossil fuels and start driving EVs?
EVs were never going to fix anything. It was just a selling point to market more cars. Mining and producing the batteries alone would take a huge toll on the climate.
The only real way to fix the car problem is to radically change our public transportation networks entirely from the ground up, anything else is just a bandaid
98.6 and 102.6 aren’t so far apart. But one says you’re okay 👍 and the other means you’re sick 🤒.
The difference between frozen depths of a glacial period with a mile of ice over NYC and the balmy interglacial we enjoy today - well maybe yesterday really - is a near 10 C.
@@christinearmington I don't think we need to be concerned with global warming.
A warmer Earth would be better than the climate today. Proof of this ---
There are more people living in the small Island of Hawaii than people living in freezing cold Alaska.
Doncha' think? 🤔
Wow. The lack of awareness is astonishing.
Haha...I like the question 👍
I'm not sure about the term "fossil fuels" though 🤔
Yeh...EV's everywhere...that'll solve it all 🤣
We don’t need anymore data what we need is more preparation and action.
I personally agree with you absolutely. My only realisation is that it takes all sorts and these people have allowed us all into their world of data and science. Unfortunately, very few of them will do anything action wise. ScientistsRebel is one such group taking action and making preparation. The action side is driven largely by the XR and JustStop-Oil, Letze Generation of the A22 group. Other people are organising what comes "simultaneously-afterwards" such as Deliberative democracy of some sort on a cross border basis. The only thing to do is to join one of these groups and be a part of the solution. To put our individual selves in service to life. Individually we can do very little.
Great stuff. Thanks all
You're welcome and thanks.
Thanks!
The paper that Pual refers to at 32:00 or so with the ice extent increasing in the northern hemisphere due to AMOC shutdown is by Rene van Westen I presume. Note that they calculated the AMOC shutdown effects while not taking into account the warming! It was just a model experiment on the isolated AMOC effects. You have to add in the warming. That may change things and confirm Paul's opinion, but it would not be news to the authors of the paper :)
I haven’t read the paper, but this is a question that’s been considered for years. I’m pretty sure that Paul even addressed it. Even with the Heinrich events we can trace in the past, to apply those results to the current situation you have to factor in the 50% extra co2 in the atmosphere plus the heat retained in the oceans. 🌊
I always find it curious that the most obvious, yet rarely discussed aspect of our existential conundrum is over-population. We homo sapiens are literally "eating the Earth alive" by our sheer unsustainable numbers. But an ever-growing "consumer base" is GREAT for business, aint it! Ultimately in will be our own cultural myths and greed that will be the progenitors of our own demise.
There are also religious extremists purposefully making as many kids as they can possibly pop out.
The outright desire of total greed of the global corporate elites and their ilk, and not the total world population only the top 1 percent, is the problem. Deliberative democratic means would bring a halt to this greed and both assist with mitigation and adaptation to minimise the inevitable severe harm now underway in the world and accelerating.
Don't be a neo-Malthusian! Try to imagine this world first without yourself in it. “Self-deport [from planet earth],” as Mitt Romney used to say. Then see if you still think overpopulation is the problem. Sure, one can solve global warming by eliminating 6 billion people. But you are probably betting against the 6 billion from the global south. You’d be surprised by the resiliency of the world’s poorest. I’m much more worried about western nations that will self-implode because their political systems cannot handle even a 1% drop in GDP. The industrialized west is in far greater danger than developing nations when it comes to global warming. Industrial farming practices will collapse in our lifetime. There will be mass hunger in America.
Check out Bill Rees ;-)
Population control as a concept has been loaded with historical baggage related to racism, eugenics and even genocide. As a black person myself, I do not believe that 'managed population control' is necessarily connected to any of those ills. In fact, it is high-consumption, Western, nations who most need to reduce their populations.
Per capita consumption is so much higher in Western nations than in the global south. Furthermore, raising living standards in poorer nations is the best way to naturally limit their rates of population growth because better educated, wealthier women tend to produce fewer children.
What about the bombing and sinking ships, computer storage cooling systems, oil spills and platforms, and testing of nuclear weapons, doing to the ocean? It can't be good. What about the Cascadia faultlines in the Northwest? The astronomical amount of energy and heat going into the ocean, every second? That's worse than I imagined. I knew it was bad, but the way you guys explain it, it is crystal clear. What are we doing? I learned about the marks on the cards and know how to read them. I was raised in Vegas and was taught gambling and card games before I could read or write. My mind loves puzzles. They call it "Counting Cards" but my mind can't help but know and figure out what cards have been played and what cards are left in the deck. I have been studying climate change and my mind can't help but add up the damage. Thank You All for sounding the alarm. It's so frustrating, to show people proof that this is happening and there are things we can do to minimize or even reverse the damage and the people who can change it don't care because of profits and greed.
When CO2 sequestration is commercialized, then there is no profit incentive to STOP emitting CO2. The more profit that can be made from CO2 emission will create opportunities to profit from CO2 sequestration. CO2 sequestration will not stop or curtail CO2 emission, it will have the effect of promoting it. We should not treat the symptom, we should treat the source (CO2 emission).
Jevon would be so proud 🤦♀️
Who was it that was recording global sea surface temperatures in the 1850’s ? Nobody.
Benjamin Franklin was measuring the temperature of the Gulf Stream in the 1700s.
33:45 Ocean warming is accelerating - yes -but last year it made a JUMP. Which is a different equitation. LOL mistake: *equation
Why did no one mention that IPCC predictions are entirely based on models, excluding “hot” models? Data that are not incorporated in a model has no effect. This has weighted predictions towards lower temperatures.
Hope isn't a strategy Mr. Host. It doesn't work for individuals going to casinos or participating in online gambling and it isn't working for humans.
The Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI) was only about 4 Hiroshima Bombs (HB) per second 20 years ago. It has increased to over 10 HB per second, more recently. It currently is about 10HB per second, amounting to 1 Million HB DAILY! It is difficult to predict the many effects of this global warming. BUT, 1 Million HB DAILY is huge obviously leading to bad effects!
Should be called Climate Extremes. Here in the Southern Interior BC, we just lost our grapes, asparagus, roses, sequoias, and other plants. It was the minus thirty plus Polar Vortex lasting for so long that did it. Back a bit, the Heat Dome happened with the 47 degree heat blasting scorcher session. With the drought, the salmon die… along with the birds, bees, and bears. The wildfires burnt 170 homes on the North Shuswap Shore. Still, the clearcutting of the forests has increased with demand, plus urban sprawl car-culture crap, tearing down a scenic Kault Hill for a freeway. Then there is rampant industrial agriculture wiping out biodiversity, mostly for meat consumption habits. It’s a pain, and we haven’t learned to change the destructive path humans are on.
Straightforward and honest thank you.
You're welcome and thank-you.
We have surpassed the tipping point in regards to global temperature increase. Nothing we do from here will change that. So, in regards to EVs and ‘green energy’, tell our governments to ‘F OFF’ and let us enjoy the few good years we have left!
If you're looking for a climate refuge, the best place on the planet is probablyTasmania, which is stabilized by having a warm continent to its north and a cool one to its south, makes plenty of its own food, and has no earthquakes of other geological problems. Getting here is problematic in that Australia doesn't make immigration easy, but there's a back door - New Zealand. NZ offers a lot of immigration paths and has a treaty that permits its citizens to live and own property anywhere in Australia as long as they want ...
If you go to NZ it will be as resilient as Tassie, but NZ has geysers which are more exciting.
There's a new term that may alter your opinion of Tasmania and New Zealand being safe havens: "SMOC", the Southern Ocean equivalent of AMOC.
Setting off nuclear bombs sped us up quite a bit
The technological, numerical infatuation of our contemporary scientists tell the numerical truths of current reality, but even they often seem to miss the profound lunacy, the unimaginable foolishness of our contemporary human "endeavor". The suicidal bent of the human species is a terrible thing to behold - if you can can see it.
Yeah. Rogue groups control us.
Persistent westerly winds have also dragged the current in one direction for over 20 years, increasing the speed and size of the clockwise current and preventing the fresh water from leaving the Arctic Ocean. This decades-long western wind is unusual for the region, where previously, the winds changed direction every five to seven year.
Scientists have been keeping an eye on the Beaufort Gyre in case the wind changes direction again. If the direction were to change, the wind would reverse the current, pulling it counterclockwise and releasing the water it has accumulated all at once.
"If the Beaufort Gyre were to release the excess fresh water into the Atlantic Ocean, it could potentially slow down its circulation. And that would have hemisphere-wide implications for the climate, especially in Western Europe," said Tom Armitage, lead author of the study and polar scientist at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.
Fresh water released from the Arctic Ocean to the North Atlantic can change the density of surface waters. Normally, water from the Arctic loses heat and moisture to the atmosphere and sinks to the bottom of the ocean, where it drives water from the north Atlantic Ocean down to the tropics like a conveyor belt.
This important current is called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and helps regulate the planet's climate by carrying heat from the tropically-warmed water to northern latitudes like Europe and North America. If slowed enough, it could negatively impact marine life and the communities that depend on it.
"We don't expect a shutting down of the Gulf Stream, but we do expect impacts. That's why we're monitoring the Beaufort Gyre so closely," said Alek Petty, a co-author on the paper and polar scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.
The study also found that, although the Beaufort Gyre is out of balance because of the added energy from the wind, the current expels that excess energy by forming small, circular eddies of water. While the increased turbulence has helped keep the system balanced, it has the potential to lead to further ice melt because it mixes layers of cold, fresh water with relatively warm, salt water below. The melting ice could, in turn, lead to changes in how nutrients and organic material in the ocean are mixed, significantly affecting the food chain and wildlife in the Arctic. The results reveal a delicate balance between wind and ocean as the sea ice pack recedes under climate change.
"What this study is showing is that the loss of sea ice has really important impacts on our climate system that we're only just discovering," said Petty
News Media Contacts
Rexana Vizza / Matthew Segal
Jet Propulsion Laboratory Pasadena Calif
818-393-1931 / 818-354-8307
😴
I'm at 8min writing this comment. If we take the 1.5 C and we assume that we are able to switch away from fossil fuels that would mean no SO2 in the atmosphere (or way less). In the Ipcc summary for policymakers 2021 they show a cooling through SO2 of about 0.4 C. Also if the Arctic sea ice is gone they assume this happens at 1.5C constantly we get another 0.2 to 0.3C on top. So in my opinion we are not at 1.38C right now but at 1.98 to 2.08C. Please tell me I'm wrong.
I am about 45 minutes in. Where you put the baseline does change the slope. There seems to be a lot of ideas about where to start, but seem to imply a steady state to compare to after the start. Thinking this would measure human influence. But the real baseline would be almost impossible to establish. The world has been warming at various rates since the current ice age maximum, and will continue to do so until the end of the ice age thousands of years from now. A real baseline would be what the readings would be without human influence and it is not steady state. So without a good reference, we must be flexible and try to be ready for a range of outcomes and not do anything drastic based on problematic projections.
Thousands of years? We are already at the end of a typical 10k year interglacial period. Back in the 1980s “they” we talking about a cooling trend. Maybe that would take thousands of years to fully descend into another glacial period, aka ice age. But the earth is overcoming the cooling trend. Disastrously and rapidly thanks to 50% extra co2.
What happens to higher temps around a biosphere or if they are . The issue needs to be seen prior to satellite and after . The equation is why as much as how . Imo
Prof. Jacobson has set the bar high for reporting on the current state of our climate - next time ask him about the MEER project
Good idea. We've had Dr. Ye Tao on several programs.
What is the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning, from a critical mass of exhaust fumes, 24/7, for years?
Thought climate is a 30 year average, learned that it is single heavy rainfall and warm ocean due to el nino …
category 6 hurricane coming
Parts per million sets the conditions for earths energy balance/ imbalance. PPM should be the top story of every news everywhere.
It's the dial on the oven. There's huge difference between 280° and 420°-500° (depending how/where/what you're measuring). How we ever convinced ourselves we could touch the dial in the first place and get away with it is what boggles my mind
Experience is ecologically interacting.
Memory is collecting evidence.
Thinking is preventing problems.
three years if not before
Bravo à vous et merci beaucoup.
De rien et merci
Merci infiniment !
21:14 That"s a strange statement. I don't feel this to be correct. I read of many climate scientists calling for emission reduction.
Yeah, I agree. That has no basis in reality and I can't imagine why he said it.
MEER Reflection Framework is simple.
Very informative session. Keep up the great work
Thank you so much for your support!
Scaling up carbon capture would cost $2 trillion a year for at least 10 years, maybe 20. Do you really think there enough government willing to take the political cost of voter backlash to this amount of spending. There might be only when it will be too late to make a difference. Solar moderation is another untested technology that would cost trillions to be effective, even if viable.
CO2, carbon dioxide? Plant thrive on this
Not when it gets too hot, they don't.
Look at how well the plants on Venus are doing.
Coming off a many year drought, Ashland, Or. Our winter @ 27,000 ft experienced far greater rainfall.
What were you doing at 27,000 feet?
Reminds me of the “scientific” debate in 1490 - How far is it to the edge of the ocean
What created the well documented Altithermal?
Love Elliot. It used to be a major topic that the original baseline in the first IPCC report was 1750...
Conservatively thats +0.3-0.5C to the average...so 1.9C ish...
Madness
Paul I know you did mention this
Talking about "actuarial assessments" as they pertain to the viability of insurance companies! Really? It terrifies me when I hear intelligent people avoiding the "no-brainer", blatantly-obvious crux of our impending disaster. This entire conversation scares me as much as ocean acidification, species loss, and wet-bulb temperatures!
Eliot: Nowhere in Canada.. then go on to outline 3 areas in the US on the Canadian border where the climate is very similar and where there are other very good reasons to live there ????
LOL @ Paul still clinging desperately to hope in the form of CDR & SRM
If tossed into the ocean after a capsize, would you keep swimming toward land as long as strength allowed? Paul would.
@@earthsystemI agree. There's too much at stake.
For me sometimes hope hurts, right? Sometimes there's less pain to give up hope
@@earthsystem with no land in sight, how would one know which way to swim?
Direct air capture is the same as bitcoin mining. It sucks up electricity, preventing the electricity from replacing fossils, increasing air pollution, CO2 & fossil mining.
What can individuals do?
Join Extinction Rebellion
Watch a few Tony Heller videos and you’ll see the chaos of the past weather and climate.
Most US state temperature records are still from the early 1900’s. The IPCC finds no trends in extremes; so nothing to worry about.
😂😂😂
@@Jc-ms5vvis that all you've got? How about an intelligent response?
potholer54 has dismantled Heller several times by citing actual scientific publications.
Eliot says it so well.
It was great having him on our program.
@@heidibrault1313 I wish Eliot had given Paul his hope synthesis on the perils outlined in the Pandora story as it is compelling to consider the suffering hope can bring on top of a predicament.
Sorry to tell you but Canada is not all towns in the woods. Over 80% of the population live within 150 miles of the US border and mainly in large urban area surrounded by mixed forests and farmland. Seattle and Portland also experienced the Heat Dome as did Vancouver.
Algo boost! a crystal flute boom
Crystal flute boom is an amazing combination of words. I really like that a lot!
Our planet is very sick, I fear the big C, when diagnosed, ALL the doctors remarks with any complaint you have, is, that's how it goes, I think we have reached this point.
The planet is fine only humans are sick
Dr/Prof. Eliot Jacobson, a breath of fresh air in humanity’s polycrisis, a real Doomer you can believe in, and if you find him too depressing, can I suggest listening to Peggy Lee’s song “ Is that all there is” and thereafter at every opportunity party like there’s no tomorrow, for one day there won’t be🤔