Dr. James E. Hansen in Conversation with Paul Beckwith
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 25 ноя 2023
- Dr. James Hansen, former Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and Adjunct Professor at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, joins Paul Beckwith in a discussion about his recent work.
This video was recorded on November 13th, 2023, and published on November 26th, 2023, and represents the opinions of the discussion participants.
“Global Warming in the Pipeline,” a groundbreaking paper challenging the conservative estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and emphasizing the urgency of the climate crisis is the main focus of the conversation. The details of the paper are delved into focusing on the rapid and potentially exponential increase in ice melt rates and the associated risks of major climate disruptions.
The discussion then shifts to a recent letter published by Dr. Hansen, where he declares that global warming is accelerating and questions the viability of the goals set by the Paris Agreement. The conversation explores the role of aerosols, particularly the reduction of sulfur in shipping fuels, in contributing to the observed warming acceleration.
The Earth's energy imbalance, the potential role of missing Antarctic sea ice, and the anticipation of alarming events in the near future are brought up in addition to the critical need for informed decision-making to address the accelerating climate challenges.
James's upcoming work on sea level rise and his book, "Sophie's Planet," which aims to make climate science more accessible to a broader audience, are mentioned as the conversation closes.
Links:
- Global Warming in the Pipeline
academic.oup.com/oocc/article...
- An Intimate Conversation with Leading Climate Scientists To Discuss New Research on Global Warming
• An Intimate Conversati...
- Conservation Science and Advocacy for a Planet in Peril: Speaking Truth to Power (Book: Amazon)
www.amazon.com/Conservation-S...
- Ice Melt Sea Level Rise in Temperatures
acp.copernicus.org/articles/1...
- Eemian (wikipedia)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eemian
- Goddard Insititute for Space Studies - Global Climate Modelling
www.giss.nasa.gov/projects/gcm/
- How We Know that Global Warming is Accelerating and that the Goal of the Paris Agreement is Dead (pdf)
www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailing...
- International Maritime Organization
www.imo.org/
- ClimaX
www.erasmusclimax.net/home
- Does rising methane signal a 'great transition' in climate?
earthsky.org/earth/rising-met...
- Analysis: How low-sulfur shipping rules are affecting global warming
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-...
- Sophie's Planet: A Search for Truth About Our Remarkable Home Planet and Its Future
www.amazon.ca/Sophies-Planet-...
- Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?
openatmosphericsciencejournal...
Special Guest:
Dr. James E. Hansen - former Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, is an Adjunct Professor at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, where he directs the Program on Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions. Dr. Hansen is best known for his testimony on climate change to congressional committees in the 1980s that helped raise broad awareness of the global warming issue.
Program Host:
Paul Beckwith - Climate Systems Scientist. Professor at the University of Ottawa in the Paleoclimatology Laboratory as well as at Carleton University.
Video Production:
Charles Gregoire - Electrical Engineer, Webmaster and IT prime for FacingFuture.Earth & the Climate Emergency Forum; Climate Reality Leader.
Heidi Brault - Video production and website assistant, Organizer and convener, Metadata technician, COP28 team lead for the Climate Emergency Forum & COP Team organizer for FacingFuture.Earth; BA (Psychology); Climate Reality Leader.
Our Website:
climateemergencyforum.org/
Attributions:
Background Music:
- Title: Through the City II
- Author: Crowander
- Source: Free Music Archive
- License: CC BY-NC 4.0
Image and Video: climateemergencyforum.org/ass...
James Hansen worked so hard on humankind's behalf, suffered so much abuse from Republican administrations and oil industry propaganda sources, and he will live long enough to verify that the worst case scenario he tried to prevent is exactly what humankind gets. Thanks for your efforts nonetheless.
Justice
The same ones hiring police to harass the Indians trying to save what they can.
♉♉♉♉
How can you be so sure?
No he won't, the climate and humankind will be fine 50 or even 100 years from now. We're far more likely to destroy ourselves due to war and strife than due to a slightly warmer planet and a higher CO2 concentration which isn't necessarily bad. More people die from cold than from warmth, and more CO2 causes plants and trees to grow more. Looking forward to a nice and warm future together with my children, while laughing about the hysterical people who used to predict doom and disaster until they were proven to be wrong.
Paul beckwith & James Hansen. Awesome.What strikes me most is this: James is smiling a lot, he is happy, he is fascinated by his science. And then suddenly all of his happynes disappears from his face, his tone of voice. That's when he mentally connects and talks about what humans have done and what to expect. It happens a few times throughout. Kind of impressive and scary at the same time.
Whatever be the fate of climate Earth , one's gotta appreciate James's Indiana Jones taste in hats :)
its okay, somewhere somehow, someone will survive in an underground bunker fiiled with canned peaches, ready to re-emerge and start a new world
These are the most conversations on the planet right now. 26,000 views? Really?
It is what it is.
Sometimes I still have trouble accepting what's happening. I understand why so many would rather keep their heads buried in the sand, but I think all-in-all I'd rather know the truth about what we are facing even if there is nothing we can do about it now. And... I'm still holding out hope for that miracle. Who knows.
Hopeium ! The population of Africa is accelerating and they all want Western lifestyles; that means Foss Fuels ans GHG's aplenty ! How you going to stop them modernizing ?
For every bad thing you could list, I could list at least one good thing.
The planet is not going to die. Humans are not going extinct.
Yes, we're in an extinction event, but compared to some of the changes in the geological history of our planet, it is still miniscule.
People need some realism.
@@lorrainegatanianhits8331we’re pumping c02 into the atmosphere ten times faster than the petm extinction event, we’re definitely on our way to extinction
Great Interview, wonderful to hear James Hansen and Paul together!
Thank-you and agreed.
Well done Paul. Thank you & James.
Thanks, Paul and the rest of ya’ll!
Thanks so much for your support
"The Faustian Bargain," indeed. Super discussion, thank you!
You're welcome
or for the less well read "between a rock and a hard place"
Today I spent 2 solid hours with a mike standing on a sidewalk at the beginning of the left side of an 3-400 meter avenue of increasing changing. Green to bright gold leaves of 200 year old ginkgo trees. Streams of 20something with the occasional silver haired characters with faces of disinterest in the messsage I was serving out with a time limit of seconds, for them to pass me by…”the governor of your city is going to cut down your trees”. That’s all the time I had in the moments they. Passed. I had a pamphlet explaining everything about the harvesting of the trees and the switch of the parts of the park, and valuing of a hotel, twin office towers, a indoor cricket. Pitch combined with a shopping malll, in addition to an expanded baseball stadium, crowded next to a Third office tower, surrounded by tennis courts, walking and bicycle paths, alll within a 75 acre area. I retain the stream of disinterested faces, hundreds and hundreds of bored faces…
The exponential factor rears it's ugly head...I could certainly envision a time that these feedbacks and other consequences lead to frighteningly fast changes..The likes of which we haven't seen yet, and life's ability to adapt becoming more and more questionable/unlikely..The tree of knowledge coupled with a civilization that celebrates and rewards greed, ego and violence is a recipe for disaster..It just seems impossibly unlikely that we can overcome the consequences that we are creating..I'ts a perfect storm...
It's fake. You've been fooled by fake science. Higher co2 is vital for a healthier greener climate. Low co2 is a road to desertification and death
Hansen sounded the alarm more than thirty-five years ago. Is he being listened to now?
no.
For years Guy McPherson was talking about how aerosols were suppressing temps. Buckle up. And like @CandC68, I've followed Paul (and Jim Hansen) for years. Thank you, Paul and Dr. Hansen, for this interview.
Guy McPherson is not to be trusted. Paul Beckwith and James Hansen are.
Hansen was decades ahead of GMP on the masking effects of aerosols, publishing on this in the 1980s. GMP learned of it from Hansen.
@@janebrown7231 So? He never said McPherson did the original research. He said McPherson was talking/warning about the dangers of so called global dimming for years, which is true & he was warning more than everyone else, including Hansen.
You sound a lot like the conspiracy theorists, always telling people that "it is coming".
It usually never does.
@@lorrainegatanianhits8331It's not 'coming' - you are correct.
It's here.
Brace for impact.
The key aspect of this interview that is mostly misunderstood and ignored is the economics of atm ghg re-sequestration and lack of scalable tech... But we could all start by the complete cessation of large hardwood felling and planting more trees; for what little time we have remaining on this now very beleaguered Earth. The 'three-legged stool' approach is therefor an imperative that must be embraced by every single human being... I wonder how that would work-out (?) Given the human propensity to think *anthropocentrically* - that is; seeing and thinking through human-centred existence.
I don't think we have enough time left. The exponential function is at play within the biospheric system dynamics.
However, perhaps, akin to someone gaining 'faith' at the end of their (faithless) life... Humans could seek a more appropriate spiritual understanding and learn to worship their biosphere instead of reading, listening and proselytising archaic belief systems based upon archaic understanding of nature. One could argue we are in the 3rd Age of Enlightenment (Renaissance), therefore REALITY should become the ONLY 'religion' or spritual communion and that reality is the BIOSPHERE.
Drop all the mumbo-jumbo... Consign the scriptures to the historical shelves of libraries categorised under 'archaic philosophy' and embrace a new BIOCENTRIC approach to existence.
But alas.... Old habits are hard to kick...
Congrats Paul and crew, you landed the big one! Looking forward to the interview but not what I'm going to hear.
Great news from a scientific understanding viewpoint, with fascinating confirmation of decades long observation and calculations, plus new news on aerosol impacts, methane releases, and the speed of “change” in Climate Change that we can all observe w our naked eyes this year and next few. No fun to say “I told you so. . . “ but we’ve always known nobody gets out of here alive - so LIVE with Love and full of Life, as best you can.
Thank goodness for both of you. The well-intended curbing of shipping aerosols points out the bargains we will have to make with all of the geo engineering projects being suggested & unforeseen blowbacks.
Aerosol dimming is known and the consequences were not unforeseen by some number of scientists, that is for sure. More on the way as industrial civilization cleans itself up a bit...
If I raise these issues with most of my neighbours or long standing friends - people argue with me and dispute this information and even the science. Even in my university where I've taught for nearly 40 years many people are just not taking the immense severity of what we are facing seriously enough - I am thankful for the activists working in groups like Extinction Rebellion (XR) and Just Stop Oil (JSO). It is a hard road and an uphill struggle we have ahead I fear. Most politicians and captains of industry are locked into fossil fuel dependency and growthism.
It's probably more appropriate to be grateful for those of us who did our damndest as climate activists during the 70s, 80s and 90s, when there was still time to make a difference.
JSO and XR cannot make the slightest difference now, except that if JSO had its way globally, we would all be dead within a very short time.
Correct, people either don't want to hear or talk about this.
@@janebrown7231 An unkind comment. Maybe because many of them were not even born? Whether they will make a difference or not, they are doing their best. Which is all one can do. So allow me to change your opening sentence: "We should also be grateful to those of us..."
I'm kinda .. err _totally _*_had_*_ it_ with these look away folks. If they don't wanna know, just wait and find out, and don't come back whining _nobody's said it would get _*_this_*_ bad_
Rather devote my time to positive stuff, enjoy nature, build communities. Would like learn to grow food or learn basic metallurgie, which in future could be very useful.
@@janebrown7231 "If JSO had their way..." There's no world where JSO is shaping policy. They're an activist group; they're meant to move the Overton Window while bringing attention to the issue. There's only so much we can legally do at this point. Thank you for your work in activism.
Lemmings to the precipice led by fools ignorant of science.
Thanks, Gentlemen. Both of you have, and continue, to try and alert the global public to our collective predicament, despite being mostly ignored or downplayed by mainstream propaganda media...
My entire family refuses to accept the evidence as proof. They won’t even remove the batteries from the garbage items they “throw away”. They negate my efforts 4-fold.
-I give up
I wonder if the reason there are no pitchforks in the streets carried by people who get it is that we're all surrounded by people who don't.
Excellent addition to reading Dr Hansen's paper and Paul's earlier review. Critical information of our time.
thanks for the video and breakdown of information.
Thanks so much for your support
Thanks so much for this everyone. We all owe you a pint.
Brilliantly lucid. Sadly a lot more of these public explanatory explanations are required. No-one that I know is cognizant of who the IPCC are or that they are starting/have been doing for some time, to back-peddle. The current crop of Politicians are absolutely useless in this context.
excellent discussion. thank you.
You're welcome
Two thumbs way up. We should have listened to James in the 1980s. We should hear him now. We need to do everything we can right now. Transition to 100$ clean electricity. Electrify everything ASAP, particularly autos and trucks. Accelerate the transition of agriculture to lab meats, shrink the herds drastically, and return the grazing lands to the Wild. Start radically strengthening infrastructure particularly the electric grid. Radically improve dwellings especially the existing stock and switch to heat pumps for heating.
You will have an awful lot of angry farmers, everywhere !
Yes, but in order to have the appropriate policies, as Dr. Hansen said over and over in his longer (but less happy and lucid) interview on Climate Chat, the US needs a third party pushed by youth and lacking financial support by special interests. A revolution. He also used the pejorative term 'big green' and pushed next generation nuclear as our main hope. All this was the flip side of the coin that reads, 'we're cooked'.
Thanks Paul, well done for creating the forum.
Thank you Paul and James. And congrats on an excellent video Paul. I actually felt quite happy for you as it was clear that although the content of the interview is dire - you were genuinely in your element with a respected colleague. I know much of your research, studies and thinking might be quite isolating for you at times and pretty heavy going considering your understanding of whats happening. It meant alot to watch you, in parts, enjoy this discussion with a fellow scientist.
Beckwith interviewing Hansen - in the big leagues now, Paul!
gets much hotter nowadays in central california with lack of clouds lately.
Best quote, "we should be working with China instead of ..."...muchas gracias Jim, Paul, Regina ..
Yes yes yes !
both of these men have all the info that dr guy mcpherson has and hansen is just as smart as guy but they both lack the courage to draw the obvious inevitable conclusion. this is the last type of denial
Great interview! It's so nice to see these two guys talking about what is going on with rapid warming from aerosol loss. It is such an important part of the next decade.
We have life and death decisions ahead. If we don’t have accurate models that can inform us about decisions, we need to respond with great caution.
I think the IPCC put a weight on sulfur aerosols of +0.5°C - +1°C. If our recent reductions have some involvement with recent warming, we should be replacing ground based aerosols with atmospheric releases in the stratosphere.
It might also be a good idea to retain some coal burning as a strategic plan to spead out the cooling effect.
So glad James was meeting with the Chinese. He is absolutely right about working with others instead of maintaining unhealthy relationships.
cheers monkeytfist
Really? What did you think of Dane Wigingtons Documentary called The Dimming and his weekly videos and all the comments and the fact it’s happening globally and has been for 80 years?
Epic interview.
I look forward to reading Hansen's new book, Cenozoic references and all! And thank you both for this insightful talk.
This'll be a good one!
Thank you for conducting this interview in a public forum. It is helpful to hear JEH on the paper he published, as well as the research leading up to it. What a ship of fools we are sailing on!
25:47 "Boy it looks like we're doing an enormous inadvertent experiment." ... remember, acid rain, lately few mention that sulfuric acid formed by sulfur emissions rains down causing health and environment harm.
Gotta weigh one harm against the other
@@obsoleteopticstrue. Negative death trends from warming and cleaning air... documented, decades of historical data.
Forests and lakes degraded by acid rain.
Vs
Projections of severe enough drought to affect half or whole continent(s)
Speculation of what would be our practical wet bulb limit
Speculation on what society will or will not accept wrt behavioral modification, eg siesta or more nocturnal school and business hours.
If you notice the Revisionism... they play down that dangerous levels of Volcanism will also consist of Sulfur, that changes down then up in Temps is bigger picture not just the Up
▪︎oh and lest we not forget that warmer Polar springs helping Ozone Layer while battery acid injected into Stratosphere is expected to shred O3 back to 1990 nadir 😮
You caught the big fish Paul. Gotta accept that Business as Usual is baked in because global leaders don't have the will to enforce reductions in greenhouse gas emissions (mainly because of pursuing strategic & socio-economic short-term goals).
Therefore, reflective geoengineering appears to be a (looming) option & therefore a UN-funded "big think tank" to address such options is seriously overdue? Such a think tank could also vigorously address lateral thinking on innovative chemistry options for direct air capture (which would not require the impossibly huge infrastructure needed for such as Climeworks).
Followed Paul for years. As I mentioned at his channel, he is like the proverbial canary in the mine. He is not alone in spending his efforts to warn us. How can we not respond rationally to what is presented by all the scientific community?
Is Brian Cox correct that the most likely cause of human extinction, stupidity?
i don't think stupidity as much as greed combined with the christian belief man should rule nature...
when did Brian say that?
Brian Cox is very much mistaken is that he incorrectly attributes free will to the human species, the lack of free will rendering human intelligence irrelevant. This is not to suggest that the human species is intelligent since any objective examination of the species renders the intelligence claim absurd.
"Immortal Idiots" forget about 'greed' and 'psychopaths' They are Idiots in first place - of course.
ruclips.net/video/TGr8bMTSD4s/видео.htmlsi=C_xx52TC-XvOzId3
Hi, Paul,
putting SO2 into the stratosphere is a busted flush. It mops up hydroxyl ions which are part of the pathway for the breakdown of methane. Extending the half life of methane is about the last thing we need. Think of a better idea.
Somebody who knows what he's talking about! What's the scariest thing about Stratospheric Aerosol Injection? Probably Termination Shock ..... or maybe the fact that its proponents talk about it being "affordable" - its cheap in monetary terms but will be catastrophic in terms of its environmental impacts.
@@finishedarticle7953 The choice will be to geoengineer or get ice-free earth. Our descendants will be making that decision few hundred years in the future when effects of global warming become catastrophic.
SAI is terrible idea but first I heard of the methane angle
Do you have any data to back up your claim? It’s important to get this right.
Having followed this issue for decades, ever since working in Antarctica in support of NSF, back in the late 70s 80s, I’ve understood the seriousness of how earth and humanity will be impacted, but considering the economic impact priorities of those in power, like the Koch brothers and other capitalists, as they distributed all the mis, dis and outright lies to continue business as usual, in face of the projected looming climate disaster, it leave little doubt in my opinion, that when all is said and done, there will always be more said than done, which will leave most of humanity to fend for themselves, as warfare and conflicts will likely become the norm as the ruling classes around the world use technology to maintain their control on resources, and power, to sustain their opulence lifestyle, and wealth, as they adapt to a changing world climate, believing that once the world population decreases to a resource sustainable level, the climate will in time normalize, as geo=engineering is employed to lower co2 and other greenhouse gases, the arrogance of those in power will be our undoing, which 8n time they will come to understand, unless war escalates to a nuclear confrontation….anyways thank you Dr Hansen for your many years of futile attempts to being awareness to this issue, I’m sure you don’t remember me but I remember you, Peace !
Well the Nuclear War will cool the planet ,eventually, with all the dust and smoke projected into atmosphere.
In the meantime : www.antarctica.gov.au/news/2015/hidden-oceanic-gateway-may-be-melting-totten-glacier/
Glad against geoengineering
Thank you. I, too believe that is the plan by the group of movers and shakers whose favourite novel is Atlas Shrugged.
The Godfather Himself
This interview is a major one.
So much pure science and scientific arguments that explains why we are at this point and what are the key causes that we (or at least IPCC) are missing.
Excellent interview, thank you.
You're welcome
Thanks so much for your support
A Great Conversation with added perspective. Thanks Paul
“Most impressive is the work of Citizens’ Climate Lobby…If you want to join the fight to save the planet, to save creation for your grandchildren, there is no more effective step you could take than becoming an active member of this group.”
- James Hansen
Thank youuuuuu
You're welcome
Thank you so much for your support
Heh... even before I watch it... the two of them together!
Amazing huh. When I spoke to James Hansen at the COP in Spain in 2019, he didn't know who Paul Beckwith was.
Fantastic interview, Paul! Much appreciated.
Thanks for listening
Then what makes parents and educators choose NOT to inform, and certainly NOT to prepare, all upcoming generations about what these (their own) children will be facing, both concerning climate catastrophe, and also with ALL of the proto-societies which they will be partaking-in as severely breaking down?!? 🙁
I WILL NEVER REGRET firing the faculty of the Master of Arts in Sustainable Leisure Management Program from Vancouver Island University - and also the World Leisure Organization! ~ Simply because THAT WAS the right thing to do as a powerful act of advocacy for your own children (but more importantly, for the entire Biosphere*)!
Professor-Marty.
*As an "Homo sapien," I possess an ECOcentric Worldview!
Uh, why did you fire them? I don't follow.
Big time important issues!
Fine interview. Thank you both
Thank you so much for your support.
Good job Paul !
The comment about the sulfur by Paul is questionable. I perceived his attitude about it to be cavalier. I could be wrong, but hasnt there been studies of the sulfur resleased from trading ships between us and europe contributing to weather pattern changes that affected the broughts in Ethiopia? 38:57 like these things have consequences
And that acid rain thing, lately nobody's mentioning that sulfuric acid formed by the sulfur emissions rains down causing health and environment harm.
I suppose its like medicine. When you are sick you should take it if the benefits outweight the side effects? Is that still the case here?
Colder world is an arid world
Droughts and ag failure is built in. Small price to pay for profitable ski lodges
@@patricklincoln5942I really do not think so. 200 years of SAI vs 500y for vegetative uptake of CO2. I'll lean the slow and safe passage
@@patricklincoln5942 but that's what I mean. We know it will have side effects but who gets to determine which side effects are worth it and which aren't. The global north might think the sulfur idea is good because they side effects might not affect them as much, but people living in the horn of Africa would be affected by droughts and that is a no go for them. I think that's what disturbed me about Paul's comment, or even your comment using the analogy of medicine. It is all misleading, cuz there are real consequences behind these actions, so it should be minimized or dismissed.
James Hansson is the top scientist in the field climate science. Yet he's gotta watch what he says in interviews or his title to his book or paper he even says as much I'm sure he could really scare the ba gee us out of people unchecked . You can see his fear when he connects what's happening and happening more frequently
Great work Paul! 20 years ago I organized a conference (and a booklet of it) with Stephen Schneider in Geneva University where I was studying. Same great level. Yet I am amazed to see how many new things James brings in during this conversation. Listening to you describe and explain scientific articles is a great way to stay afloat of this not-so-easy topic. As governments lie to us on so many things, many start thinking they also do on climate, an hurdle we really don't need. Keep-up the great work!
Many thanks Paul and Dr James Hansen..Great interview and thanks for sharing all this amazing information with us. We appreciate you both.
Wow, the editorial board censored them! Perhaps the title was too scary for the IPCC? Science modified by politics is no longer science, it's wishful thinking. What will their wishful thinking make of direct measurement showing us only half the heat entering the atmosphere is leaving? Perhaps the implications aren't clear to some of them, perhaps they have vested interests they feel they must protect... There is no escaping the reality. Next year will be hotter. And the year after. And so on. No matter what we do to mitigate the damage, the inertia is unstoppable. We're headed for seriously unpleasant changes for everyone on the planet. That much is inevitable. So much for politics.
Critical information and great interview, thank you
Thank-you and you're welcome
Outstanding interview! Thanks!
You're welcome
Thanks so much for your support
So Hanson does not think that the temps will not fall back their prior El Nino levels - and if they do - will we see admission of error ? Just curious since I like that method that predictions are tested to validate or not scientific theories.
If the temps resume prior levels - then his particulate theory is not even dust in the wind.
What I don't understand is that the aerosols have a short half life of a few weeks or months so why would the warming effect caused by their reduction take place over decades instead of months? In other words we should already have seen the full effect of the reduction.
Thermal inertia. The forcing caused by ending their replenishment ramps up to full force in a few weeks, but that new, additional forcing has a lot of air, and especially sea, to warm up, so it takes a while. Just like emitting greenhouse gasses.
it takes about 40 years for co2 to reach its peak temp. the aerosols slow but dont stop the heating.@@robertcartwright4374
🙏 for great interview. We should be terrified of AMOC collapse as early as 2050. Given many, (most?) climate models are proving to be too conservative, we are at the proverbial eleventh hour. Yes, the superpowers must put aside the cold war nonsense, there is no time to lose.
They’re more interested in hot war profits. And time was up well before the changes became so rapid that anyone working with plants or nature could see the terrifying truth of the matter. For me working in horticulture and on a reforestation project that was in 2016. I’ve been tracking dramatic tangible and visible changes every year since.
To the point that I’m now amused when climate scientists finally note discovery of conditions that I was aware of and dealing with years ago. Therein lies the difference between those working on the subject with computers and those of us, with a front row seat, working with the living world.
So, what about the hot war, currently underway? Her is the long term:
www.antarctica.gov.au/news/2015/hidden-oceanic-gateway-may-be-melting-totten-glacier/
Collapse before 2100 is low confidence
Are the national representatives at COP 28 paying any attention to your findings?
A quality guest, a quality informative show.
Thanks for the cogent and terrifying information. We're sleepwalking into disaster.
Sadly I don't think we are sleepwalking there. We are making deliberate steps.
♉♉♉♉♉♉
Great job.
That thing about sucking CO2 out of the atmosphere.... We dug up Carbon, not carbon dioxide. So the oxygen in the CO2 is from the atmosphere. For every one carbon atom trapped, it will trap two atoms from the atmosphere.
I just checked:
The atomic mass of carbon is 12.
The atomic mass of oxygen is 16.
So CO2 capture takes 2.6 times as much from the atmosphere as it does returning carbon underground.
CO2 capture is not a solution at all!
Bruh... that is a damn fine point... I think the geologic CC method releases O2 [as does vegetative] but direct sequestration is an issue
Oh and O2 has been declining I think even before Oligocene Cooling started reducing biosphere production
If cleaner shipping fuel causes at least 1W/m^2 energy imbalance rise, then the needed whole shutdown of fossil burning will rise that imbalance much more.
We may need SO2 seeding of the upper atmosphere to keep our planet cool enough. Like adding SO2 (or components that makes it) to our aeroplanes. Balancing sulfur levels (or other cloud seeding elements that are not as harming as SO2) in the atmosphere while having ghg reductions is a key element for the somewhat balanced climate.
While doing this we may shutdown fossil burning with lesser impacts on aerosol cooling. We have to stop emitting more heating greenhouse gases to the atmosphere as soon as possible.
We have passed 2C limits of ghg's vs. palaeo records. Also energy imbalance shows this clearly as direct measurement. We are on loaned time waiting temperature to rise. 10-20 meters of sea level rise on current levels is coming, with rate unknown (WMO/IPCC palaeo ghg levels, 12-20m by 2300 by state of arctic report).
And actions on governmental level are not there. Even too weak pledges are failing at 85% rate. One main reason is letting fossil firms to fill their money on politicians. Also politicians keeps on flushing subsidices on fossil fuels that are killing our planet. Governmental actions are directing climate toward well above 3C warming, likely even over 4C.
Adding SO2 breaks down hydroxyl ions, reducing breakdown of methane.
@@drpetesudbury8562 Damned if ya do Damned if ya don't.
Thanks for a great interview and for the editing with the additional info.
You're welcome
Actually the Last Glacial Maximum kicks off with a bunch of volcanic activity happening. Including the last Supervolcano eruption on Earth. The Oruanui eruption of Mount Taupo, New Zealand. I'd love to hear these two discuss that.
While Mount Takahe VEI 7 eruption in Antarctica is a prime suspect for ending the LGM.....
Both asociated with feedback mechanisms.
Im slowly realising I need to read more books.
Thanks for this interview. I wish I could understand what's happening in our climate system myself or see/experiment with these models. Our problem is that climate chage has become a political issue now. Back when James testified before Congress it had such a big impact.
Tim Palmer has some good talks explaining dynamic systems.
... A good place to start on this subject is James Hansen's own book ' Storms of my Grandchildren ' ~ 2009 Bloomsbury Press ...
Congrats Paul!
A Rock star interview 👏
Excellent. Thank you so much. Reality check for sure. This year will tell us everything we need to know…
Paul Crutzen mentioned thr sulfate dilemma. After listening to this discussion I suggest to re-introduce sulfur in shipping fuels immidiately and to mske shipping routes wider.
Are you related to Eveline/Linz? Lost contact and have a project of relevance in this context...
thanks, i consider James Hansen as the most influent climat scientist
Yes, Eric Rignot always has his fingers in the hottest pies;
-- SLR
-- Glaciology
-- Comparative spectroscopy for glacier speed and reversing grounding lines
-- Glacial retreat and collapse
-- Fractured ice-cliffs and ice-melt caverns inside glaciers.
Other than Alps as water source (for the richest population of Earth) can you explain benefit of glaciers anywhere?
Doubtful an end of annual snowpack anytime soon...
Quite a thought provoking interview with Dr Hansen.
13:42
James: Yeah, but you know, you should note that. So there are papers that have been
13:48
written about that. They look at the change in the sulfur emissions and they estimate
13:53
a one tenth of one watt effect. Well, there's about an order of magnitude discrepancy
14:01
with what we're observing. So it's just an example, I think, of where the modeling
Paul, you mentioned some months ago that ocean stratification is increasing so maybe more energy stays close to the surface. Can you quantify this effect? Now, Antarctic ice was really reduced last December /January...April, right? So I understood that reduced Antarctic ice last year caused increased ocean surface warming in the spring 2023, and it subsequently had an effet on air temperature. What do you think?
A discovery of similar magnitude to the ozone hole and another symptom of #OurPredicament.
Nice work Paul and James. Thank you. To be honest, with the quality of the political system as it is, the ignorant people on wrong positions, and the private interests, simply there is not hope to overcome this obstacle with the climate change.
We live in Holland a few meters below sea level.
We measured a rise of 3 mm per year.
What ice sheets do we have to check?
I know that long ago we could walk to the UK and from Aboriginals we learned that they had to flee the water rise in Australia. They tell the story from mouth to mouth but it went fast they said.
Hmm his reaction when talking about the antarctic boe kind of strange. Maybe he didn't think of it or didint know. Idk just find the reaction off.
Amazing that Hansen still talks about saving the West Antarctic ice sheets when in conversation he clearly shows its gone 🤔
Its because there is uncertainty, and if you use geoingeneering with aerosouls you litterally could save the ice sheets for a relatively cheap price in dollars but there would be an additional costs in terms of changed climate.
The problem is not really that we (government) took the sulfur out of oceanic shipping. By the way, it cost the shippers billions of dollars to do that, either by buying more expensive, lower cost fuel, or by scrubbing the emissions. The problem is a combination of overpopulation and high energy consumption per person. Breed and greed.
Gladiators, be not afraid as the math is real.
Thank you Paul for the update and for the incisive back and forth between you and Dr. Hanson. If we have an increase in global warming due to decreased cloud albedos from the removal of sulfur from shipping fuels, what about using marine cloud brightening from tiny salt particles to increase the quantity and reflectance of the clouds produced by global shipping. If it works great! If it has bad side effects, it is easily and quickly stopped. If I remember correctly Paul, you had some good videos on this idea. I guess it would be time to get the mentioned international shipping association onboard as they seem to have a lot of clout in their industry.
Yeah, I was surprised he went with sulfur instead of marine cloud brightening.
The problem with the Climate Forum is it doesn't pose enough solutions to the problems. It's just negative sensationalism. The truth is unless we stop talking and start doing things to reduce our ecological footprint we are all wrecked. 'A little less conversation and a little more action' should be the motto.
Here's a playlist of all our Solutions videos: ruclips.net/p/PLTD-F8Igr8KOeHDYV6xIXkkQMy8mvsPZL
Besides, James it would be great if US and China collaborated to save our climate. They could easily do so if they agreed on producing and buying long-lasting, reparable goods instead of 10 times more junk. The need for electricity , transport, storage and ressources would be much reduced.
Brilliant discussion
Great interview, Paul.
Thanks so much
Superb interview Paul.
I wonder if there could be a way to facilitate a public debate between James Hansen and Michael Mann?
So boy, it looks like we're doing
25:50
an enormous inadvertent experiment and we'd better do our best to understand exactly
25:59
what that's doing to the aerosols, to the clouds, and to the planet's energy balance
Great info! Thnx. Please tell me how I'm wrong here: Why not seed the stratosphere with light reflecting aerosols buying us enough time to draw down GHGs by regreening deserts. 10 tons per acre per yr is being sequestered each year, per acre in systems that practice certain types of soil regenerative ag. Soil holds a lot of carbon. Half of the carbohydrates, fats and proteins that a plant makes from atmospheric carbon using photosynthesis is redirected to its roots as root exudates. This feeds microbial communites which in return feed the roots with the nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and a host of other nutrients. That carbon stays in the soil as long as you don't plow.
Building soil is easy to do, and could draw down atmospheric carbon to pre-industrial levels over a period of a hundred years or so if enough carbon deficient soils were regenerated. It's doable.
Check out Geoff Lawton's work in Jordan. He demonstrates how it can be done by regreening a 10 acre piece of salty desert into a self sustaining oasis that didn't even need to be watered after 3 years. Amazing stuff.
I think it's doable.
Something has to be done and it can't be energy intensive or high cost/high tech. Natural based solutions are likely the only answer in GHG drawdown.
What say you?
Did Jim Hansen ever look into Ye Tao's work? What's his opinion on the MEER project?
This was a really informative interview. I'll share it on my Facebook page, but I doubt anyone will watch it.
Sad but true. Information is less entertaining than misinformation
What is this cut at 8:32? Doesn't this statement refer to another study (Hansen J, Sato M, Hearty P et al. Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 C global warming could be dangerous. Atmos Chem Phys 2016;16:3761-812)?