Reform UK's 'best chance to win a seat' is in the next by-election, says pollster | LBC
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- Опубликовано: 25 мар 2024
- "It's prime Reform UK territory."
Rishi Sunak is facing another by-election after Scott Benton resigned as an MP. Mr Benton, the MP for Blackpool South, was already facing a recall petition and potentially a by-election after MPs approved a motion to suspend him from the Commons for 35 days.
In December, the Commons sleaze watchdog found that he had committed an "extremely serious" breach of Parliamentary rules and recommended that he face a 35 day suspension.
He was caught by an undercover newspaper sting offering to lobby ministers on behalf of gambling investors.
In a resignation statement he said: "It's with a heavy heart that I have written to the Chancellor this morning to tender my resignation as your MP.
Deltapoll's Joe Twyman explains to Andrew Marr what it all means.
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So they are going for thick white and old. Sounds illuminating
Sounds like a typical labour supporter.
The older and poorer the electorate, the less opportunity they had to a university education when they were young.
Aye, Labour have gone downhill
Correlation between lack of educated electorate and strong Brexit support obvious.
I have seven degrees and voted for Brexit. One of my degrees is a Masters in Political Philosophy. Next question.
You ask your university for a refund.
@@aion5837 it was a statement he was making not asking a question. I’d have thought one of your degrees might have imparted that knowledge.
@@aion5837 Okay, using the knowledge gained during your 7 degrees, as well as the knowledge of everything that has happened since then, how do you think Brexit is going? Are there any of the expected Brexit benefits which maybe didn't work out quite as well as was hoped?
@@aion5837Trump University?
Why would a constituency with a largely old poor population vote for a bunch of tax cutting billionaires?
That’s the $64k dollar question. The Right has always been skilled at persuading the poor and uneducated to vote against their best interest. Their weapon of choice is FEAR.
Because they're tax cutting billionaires that hate minorities
Because that is precisely what they did when they voted for Brexit.
@@Ribod o e bitten twice shy?
Because they are as thick as 2 short planks
They won’t though, but it will still put the wind up the Tories. Expect silliness.
If this is such an unusual constituency, along several parameters, I don't quite see how it is so essential for Labour to win. Surely a more mixed, broadly representative constituency would be more valuable as an indicator of Labour's popularity?
As we saw in 2016 the higher cuts to local services due to austerity the more likely they were to vote for brexit. But I think that constantly l ying to the electorate is not the magic wand reform thinks it is anymore. I think Labour taking it back is much more likely.
Never seen in the same room as Joe Lycett
Imagine living through 14 years of Tory chaos and incompetence and venality, and thinking: "You know what? The answer to all my Tory-created problems is to vote for Reform."
It's people with your exact attitude why so many people voted for Brexit. . . I.e, Sneering and thinking you know better than others.
@@robertwilliams2323 In fairness, thinking we know better than others is why we all vote.
As opposed to the uniparty
If Blackpool votes Reform it really has given up on itself
Their Tory MP, who lost the whip , said the poor don’t deserve a holiday..
The poor going on holiday is the basis of Blackpools economy!
Having been to Blackpool I would say they gave up a long time ago
@@Israelipropaganda . The British people gave up on Blackpool. Some people seem to think we should ban foreign holiday and force people back to Blackpool.
English seaside town, look at Clacton, Boston and Skegness. All right wing areas, if Reform get in in this by election it isn't a disaster because it's one less Tory on the government benches
Voting Labour would be even worse. Imagine voting for a party that supports the lazy and the fake disabled.
After being bitten by Brexit and Johnson surprised anyone would fool for something similar in a different guise like Reform.
I live in Blackpool Scott Bentons keen Facebook supports are saying they will vote Reform. I expect they will just not vote in the by election or in the general election in October.
We really taking THESE con people seriously????
They voted Tory last time , why would they change , after all they got Brexit done,
They did and no Unicorns appeared, now they might vote for the Unicorn Party
They didn’t vote Tory, they voted “Boris”.
@@adamfrancissmith5511 are you saying they like to be lied to,
@@lindsaybelderson7735 plus sunny uplands,
Many of them claim that Brexit has never happened and all we got was BRINO. This despite the fact that all the leading economic powerhouses are highlighting daily the economic damage that has been done by Brexit.
Funny that, because locally, everyone is planning to vote green
"Everyone" lol
@@Dynasty1818 Apart from Benton
Hope not hate, vote tactically
and still could not get in the frame....
30% turnout and Liebour will call it a great victory and ringing endorsement.
If you vote reform it's a vote for Johnson and his past cabinet don't forget the red bus and party gate
Labor is gfc , wars in the Middle East and mass migration.
Reform is the way forward
Didn’t they say that about that one Ben Habib lost spectacularly?
People still feel abandoned by Labour ,people do not trust either labour or the tories ,it would not suprise me at all if reform get a lot of votes ,lets hope there are still enough sensible people that see reform for the tories that they are.
Hero to some, gammon to many.
Spoken like the true outsider you are.
Classic red wall? I'm sorry are we pretending red wall wasn't a thing until the distant past of 2019.
it also the constituency with the most donkeys per square mile than any other in the UK.
Why? It’s a one off. Labour are ahead in the polls becuase moderate Tory voters are flipping to them. Why put them off by joining the competition to get the votes of nutters?
Let reform have them.
Blackpool is almost a monument to an earlier, happier, simpler time. As a young child growing up in Liverpool in the 70's I have fond memories of a week's summer hols in a boarding house with my mum but even then you could feel that it was pretty frayed at the edges - and I guess it was, because mum was a young, divorced primary school teacher and we were pretty poor, and it was what she could afford. I've not been back in all of those 40 years, but I can imagine that anyone that could get some qualifications and some aspirations would make a bee-line out of there, leaving behind a vanguard of left behind nostalgics, not dissimilar to their brethren down the east of England. At least the latter could imagine ( delusionally ) that they were on nodding terms with the better classes once they saw all that positive equity in their right to buy council houses and could afford to put mock tudor cladding all over them. Blackpool and places like it never got a look in.
Reform has no chance - most are fed up with far right BNP type parties. They should be confined to the dustbin of history.
People are getting really worried about Reform, Reform is the way forward
@@annealbrecht396 😂😂😂😂😂
@@annealbrecht396 Reform PLC is a big step backwards.
@@annealbrecht396Not really, voting Reform kicks the Tories out, the enemy of my enemy is my friend ig. Economically it'd be slightly better but not by much, mainly because they'd actually govern unlike the toxicity of the Tories, however socially it'd be much worse
Why should they be? Cause a weakling from the left says so. They should come back and will do wether you like it or not.
The idea that Reform could win Blackpool South - even in a by-election - is nonsensical. Reform will never win a seat under their own steam - they might hold a seat temporarily if the Conservative MP defects but that is all. They might just beat the Conservatives to second place in this by-election but they will come nowhere near winning.
Not sure why you think so. UKIP won two seats in by-elections.
@@kincaidwolf5184 They were both seats where the Tory MP had defected to UKIP and called a by-election confident they could win with their personal vote. Both seats went back to the Conservatives at the following general election. In neither case were Labour in with a chance of winning the seat unlike this time. Reform will be lucky to gain more than 20% in any seat anywhere, even with a defecting Conservative MP.
Is the "red wall" really for constituencies that only started voting Labour around the time when Blair came in?
Well, you get the representation you deserve. You want people looking after your interests, then best check out what they'll actually do for you. Is getting rid of immigrants and giving breaks to the rich going to put money in your pocket and preserve your rights?
Reform won't come remotely close to winning this seat, so i dont know why the analyst would put this forward as an indicator of their future performance. They don't have the ability to do well in by-elections and their best chance to win seats will be during the general election. Even then it will be difficult as this is the nature of the first past the post system.
For it to be classed as a success for them I would expect them to perform at least as well as their national polling, which is about 15% or so. There are some demographic advantages in this seat for them but not nearly enough to overpower apathy, lack of awareness, tactical voting and the better resources and voter information available to the major parties.
The best and most balanced comment I’ve read on here. Even coming 2nd will be a tall order. The one factor that will alter the percentages is a Farage return before may 2nd. That should be worth a few percentage points, but even then it would be tight for 2nd as it would still represent an almighty swing away from the conservatives.
Agreed. They absolutely tanked in Rochdale and Tice threw a hissy fit
I Q reducers 😳🤔.
Predicting the lowest voter turnout ever in the next election
I'd be surprised, a lot of the "they're all the same, I won't vote" types will scrawl their mark under Reform.
Why ? Tories just too embarrassed to show their faces.
I predict they won't win a thing and tice will throw his toys out of the pram again
He will do a Trump the election was stolen from us
@@alanpage3973 Isn't that what the remain deludes do, Ah we need another vote just to confirm it , the bus swung it, old people shouldn't have been allowed to vote , people didnt know what they were voting for , let 14-year-olds have a vote . Zzzzzzzzzz Zzzzzzzz. . Anything to change the outcome
Reform UK is the best option in order to save this country. Make Britain Great again 👏🏽
Labour have Wales firmly under their thumb so no change there !
Becuase the Welsh vote for it?
In the same way the Scots vote SNP.
The English find it strange both don’t vote like England.
@@johnrussell3961 The English don't understand why anyone wouldn't want to be like them. Ability to see themselves as others see them not their strong point.
REFORM ALL THE WAY 🇬🇧
All the way to the bottom of the barrel
@@michaelcoward1902 your name suits you.
@@michaelcoward1902 Silly little man.
Itis a vey. Poor are and a labour type population. Labour will walk this no doubt. Reform should come second with Tories wiped ot hopefully. Reform will do better in general election.
A vote for reform is a vote for some of the Tories that caused this problem just because they moved party doesnt mean there going to change
But you'd vote Labour no doubt, thinking anything will change, which is hilarious.
They've zero chance.
What a load of patronising tosh!
Delta pol, one of the worst polling companies!.
Please vote reform
Why?
@@neilmachon9828 Are you OK?
Reform 🎉🎉🎉 always Reform
Because apparently 8 years of dithering, waging endless culture wars and cycling through scapegoats wasn't enough for some.
@@michaelcoward1902 vote reform
Nice One Mr mc 'Oward
@@neilmachon9828 vote reform
Being ‘more conservative than the Conservatives’ doesn't give the Tories much angle of attack on Reform. With Labour happy to munch popcorn and enjoy the right-wing division, Reform has pretty much had a free pass so far.
White British? Maybe white English is more accurate. Get it right people. Freedom for Scotland. We want our independence and to end the union with England. Roll on our own Republic of Scotland! 🏴🇪🇺✌️
You only speak for ‘you’ not ‘we’
@@gerardmackay8909recent polling and historic election results show that the vast majority of Scotts want independence.
If they held another indyref tomorrow, it'd be an almost certain thing.
A united Britain has been a huge success for us. Don't break it up just because we have a bunch of clowns in Westminster.
@@stevep4131 a huge success for who? Scotland, Wales and NI are massively behind England in terms of economic opportunities. Why should the people of Scotland, who vote massively in favour of the SNP, have their votes diluted by two different countries who's opinions largely do not apply. Imagine if it was the other way, where Scotland had a higher representation of the vote, and the SNP were in charge of the UK. Would you feel represented or that the government had your interests as an English person at the forefront of their policies?
I'm saying this as an English person, too. I love Scotland, it's a beautiful country with its own culture and history. They should have democratic autonomy.
@@XAVR_ Britain has been a huge success for the British people - stability, rule of law, prosperity and democracy. On the world stage it was a huge force in bringing slavery to an end and a big help in defeating fascism
Of course Any democracy is just an approximation to an ideal democracy. You can chuck criticisms against any democracy.
As a northerner I understand the resentment against Westminster. A lot of money has been spent on London which should have been invested in the north. But lets not break up a winning combination on petty resentments or nationalism..
Basically - lets fix what we have. It was daft enough leaving the EU without fragmenting further.
Guys it's been nearly 10 years and it's all done now stop talking about leave vs remain voters it's not what any of us care about anymore it's done move on we have, it's the economy, the state of public service and our crumbling infrastructure that really matter to us at the moment
May just be linked mate...
The ENTIRE bogus Reform platform is based on Brexit not being ‘done properly’ and they are the ones who will stop the immigrants (illegal and legal it doesn’t matter as long as they stop the brown people coming in). Of course how ‘Brexit voting’ a constituency is matters regardless of whether the vote was 8 years ago or not. This issue will never be ‘done’ for a generation or more.
The problem is it's not anywhere near done it's the reason we are in this mess how do you fix the economy by creating trade barriers exports bring in the money to fix public services and infrastructure and drives the economy
It’s their acceptable bigotry. Can’t despise someone for their background unless they’re white and northern.
It's so done that the tories keep undoing Brexit to prevent all the damage they were warned about in the first place
8 years and the bigots are still crying over Brexit .... 😂😅 .
Waiting for the big splash reshuffle when Penny Mordaunt replaces nowhere man, Ritchie Sunak.
Oh dear, Andrew sounds somewhat excited at the mere suggestion that Labour might not win a by-election. Showing his true blue colour?
"A seat". 20 years of loony left wing Labour, after we only just got over their last period in government.
To be fair that 40 per cent majority deserve everything thats coming.
Are you seriously suggesting that everything is better now than it was in 2010?
@@mickreaddin4979 You mean when finances were unsustainable (IMF) and we faced the worst financial crisis since ww2.
Can't beat a tory for bad performance
@@seamuspadraigsanders431 Our finances are in even worse shape now, but you think we're in a better position? Really?
@@mickreaddin4979 Not just I think we're in a better position world markets do also, which is why we were able to borrow so much money, also the reason Starmer has been offering favours for world markets not to cut us off in 6 months time come the worst most unqualified government in British history.
Basically saying only thick people will vote reform lol
The breakdown of the demographics bears that out.
So the same type of people that vote Labour but with the extra swing for lazy and disabled.
Vote reform