If you're a Nebula subscriber, make sure to watch my "When Will China Invade Taiwan?" video after this one. If not, sign up for $2.50/month and watch it over a month before it's available on RUclips! go.nebula.tv/polymatter
Well, after getting all the necessary monopolized technologies and skills, I believe the US would still defend Taiwan, but with much less incentives. I believe, eventually the US would get bored and re-establish relations with China, but after years, while the Chinese are known for their leadership's commitment to whatever they do. Simply, the US would certainly defend Taiwan, but up to a rational/economical point/limit
@@Omer1996E.C Taiwan is a de facto independent country and a very important part of island chain of defense. That is for sure. I think the key for Taiwan to maintaining the status quo is to enhance the forces and become a permanent neutral country as Switzerland does, which can guarantee that Taiwan has the ability to avert the crisis and hurts caused by conflicts between two superpowers.
@@jacktam7673 that's hard, Taiwan is definitely not like Switzerland, it's a historical part of China, so the Chinese government would be ready to lose alot just to gain Taiwan, even if it wasn't for their semiconductors. The US won't defend them for too long for sure, it follows it's interests, the US isn't just led by ideological individuals, but interest seekers
@@Omer1996E.C Firstly, in terms of history, Chinese people really like to use the phrase “from antiquity “. But they never define the so-called “antiquity”. According to their logic, we are all the descendants of African apes, we’re all Africans?🤡 sorry no offense. Secondly, what if China really occupies Taiwan? It is not just the problem of semiconductors. It’s the problem of geopolitics for US and allies! That must be the nightmare of the world and US. US will not just wait and see.
The peace is maintained by "being ambiguous enough that both sides can interpret the terms optimistically enough to their satisfaction". That is a beautiful single-sentence explanation to a very complex topic, thank you so much for this channel.
@@sanriosonderweg no it is very important to the U.S any way you look at it. it is morally right to uphold the status quo because it keeps the world as peaceful as possible and secondly it is economically important to the U.S because both China and Taiwan are big players in the U.S economy. It is literally America's business in every sense of the word.
@@sanriosonderweg America entered into its current arrangement from a state of alliance with the Republic of China (Taiwan). It is very much in America’s business to ensure the fair treatment of the ROC.
If you look at the historical record, the PLA hasn't had much luck winning anything other than land battles with overwhelming human waves... so back in the day, a well dug in army could really defend a small stronghold. True, today Kinmen would probably fall in hours, but that is no surprise given how the PLA has modernized. Also in 2022 we could not shoot down a small DJI drone that was flying above the outpost, but that was more because weapons use was not authorized for fear of starting an international incident.
@joeyliao8937 not just kinmen. China's military could take all of taiwans outlying islands(kinmen,matsu,pratas,penghu and any islands that taiwan has in south china sea)
I would hope, considering Chinese propaganda's insistence that you're really just lost family, that they'd simply roll in and go "See? China now." If there were a real attempt at defending it, though...
This is one of the best videos on the geopolitics of the China-Taiwan conflict I’ve ever seen. It summarizes and delivers neatly what think-tanks and academics have been saying on this issue for the past year or two, but through a much more accessible medium. Thank you PolyMatter!
Indeed. Between Real Life Lore, Polymatter, Wendover Productions, Caspian Report and Kamome, we can be reliably saturated with high quality geopolitics content.
@@Encolasalthough Real-life lore used to have more of a unique approach. While all the other channels you listed feel like quality production, real life lore has succumbed to a boring audio book of Wikipedia pages
@@yeetandrepeat4251 Used to watch, I’ll need to revisit. But I think that’s more in the mega projects category, which also has a number of great channels
As a Chinese born American, thank you poly matter to bringing this issue to our eyes. You have such a rich perspective telling these amazing stories! Keep on going!
Both sides are becoming confident in winning such a war. So WW3 is probably going to happen. The question is when, not if. Even with US investing trillions and trillions into the war, it's still unlikely to win. China still could win, but the cost would be enormous.
Watching this immediately after Real Life Lore’s video is a trip. Seems there’s a lot weighing on China these days. Either way, looking forward to this one.
@@danzwku this one here, which goes into detail about China’s current demographic crisis and it’s implications on the country’s future, potential invasion of Taiwan, etc. He uploaded a couple hours ago. ruclips.net/video/KiaukPUV6Hg/видео.html
@@Blastoise9000Having watched RLL for years now, this China video is based more for clicks and likes than actual unbiased content. His upload schedules give it it away. For every 3 legitimately insightful videos, there will be 1 video catering for public narrative. Works well though
China has to deploy at least one million soldiers to invade Taiwan in a naval amphibious invasion that would make the 1944 Normandy invasion look like a milder one.
Quite possibly much more than that, doubtful most ships would make it to the beach and Taiwan has been preparing the handful of viable landing spots for decades now
Normandy was easy compared to this, as after 1943 it was clear that the war would go on, it wont be a blitz anymore and that long war would not be in the favor of Nazi's. Before the soldier landed on normandy it was clear that which side as momentum which side the tide of war has turned who would win. In case of China's attack the amphibous assault would happen when the opponent (taiwan) would be strongest not the weakest compared to taiwan. The war would start by an amphiboius assault, It would be 10x times more difficult than Normandy then compare the terrain and weather, ocean behaviour etc
@@avinashtyagi2 Forces on both sides lack any real battle experience, and much of Chinese tech is just reverse engineered from stolen blueprints and documents, etc. We won't know exactly how it will go, but if the bases are fully established on the nearby Japanese islands just off the northeast coast of Taiwan, it could be a very costly prospect.
I think South Korea and Japan will prompt USA to oppose China's potential unilateral changes to the status quo. Otherwise, USA might as well say goodbye to their dominance in the Pacific.
Yes. Due to the recent uptick in Chinese aggression, the US, Japan, and South Korea have entered a mutual defense treaty against what is essentially their common enemy. The US already had mutual defense treaties with Japan and SK respectively, but a tri-lateral joint cooperation between these two Asian countries are quite profound given their history. While I'm here, the Philippines have also expanded their cooperation with the US, allowing them to operate several key bases there, with a sizeable uptick in forces that are stationed there. This is also huge. There are other players in the region as well, including AUKUS for example, where Australia and the UK is also involved, thanks to direct Chinese meddling in Australia. Oh and don't forget Vietnam and Malaysia. China is making enemies all over SEA, and similar with Ukraine and NATO, has become the single biggest selling-point for growing cooperation with the US in the Pacific region.
@@Pouncer_FoxThe smartest move for China is to start to make non-aggression military pacts with South American and Middle Eastern countries . The US has made plenty of enemies there.
You've got to be kidding. Even if they have Taiwan and easier access to the pacific, do you really think China, with its *BROWN WATER NAVY* have even the faintest hope of unseating the US Navy?
Japan & South Korea are already working on mending their complicated relationship. They have a history that is problematic but they need each other and they really have a lot in common if they can move on from the past. They are also both very concerned with two major aggressive countries in the region, North Korea & China. Vietnam is officially neutral but they are also working with the US to some capacity because they will want US help if part of China's aggression is towards Vietnam. And it's already well documented that Philippines is working with the US and expanded US troop and base presence in the country.
Great video man - I'm starting to get worse at following the news through conventional channels, but I know I can always count on a video from you to break down a topic in detailed, well thought out manner.
thanks for sharing objective information. as chinese background living in australia, taiwanese people are one of the most kindness and gentle people i ever came across. fingers cross there is no war between china and taiwan
Don't you think that Taiwanese are probably the most traitorous? You are enjoying your life in Australia while Australia is preparing to Bomb china and make it into a puppet regime with the narrative "hate the government". Where's East Timor in that?
Good general summary of the US's ambiguous stance on Taiwan... although I would argue its actually not that ambiguous. US allows Taiwan passport holders visa free entry into the US. That status alone puts Taiwan above many other US allies. I grew up in the US but spent summers in Taiwan and live here now. The main reason we don't fear invasion is, frankly, we know the US loves their iPhones way too much to allow China to control/shut down chip production. Biden understands this economic reality, that is why in addition to saying he would send troops to defend Taiwan, he also passed the CHIPS act. Also just a small side note, the main island of Taiwan is called Taiwan. Just like the Big Island of Hawaii is called Hawaii. "Formosa" is more like referring to Jakarta as Batavia or Myanmar as Burma
Why don't any of ye ask the much more relevant question: CAN the US stop China from taking Taiwan. And the answer to that question is NO. In Chinas backyard Chinese military rules supreme. US have no chance
it is not the iphones but the military interest in the worlds best chips available that ensures USA is going to defend taiwan - the US even has contingency plans to work with taiwan in an event that china tries an invasion - the first thing to happen if china were to be poised to take the island is that all the fabs would be destroyed and all of the important tsm workers would be airlifted to US ships and relocated to the US - china will never get their hands on the high end chip fabs (which is the real reason thewy want taiwan to begin with)
@@Zam_man all the military power shown by China in Taiwan was a response to USA approaching more and more by sea and building bases around, And looking at history, it's easier to the US try to invade China or provoke an attack by putting a suspicious amount of forces around China. Even if China do invade it. They have to do it 80x more to even come closer to the threat the US is.
@@Zam_man The US may if they have planned it in advance be able to destroy the factories before China can take them, but the first thing that China would do in an invasion would be a blockade, and if they were foolish enogh to get withing operating distance the destruction of the US pacific fleet. In other words US can't airlift anyone away as everyone would be shot down. The only reason the airlift worked in Berlin was because the US and the Soviets were not at war, the Soviets could have destroyed the airbridge if they wanted war and would from there been able to reach the beach of Normandy with little resistance, but what then? Similarly, don't assume that the US is in a position of strength here, it is not.
The chips can be eventually substituted and fab'd elsewhere. The bigger concern is allowing the PLA submarines free undetected access to the deep ocean, especially since the PRC's nuclear buildup indicates they're no longer interested in mere "minimal credible deterrence" ☢️
I don't think the clarification is meaningless. There are several possible scenarios of the war. China getting fait accompli before the US reacts, the US being not willing to fight, the US being unable to stop China despite the fighting, a costly war without significant gains, and of course disastrous defeat of China. The clarification makes it a bit more likely that the US will fight, which also means a higher chance of negative results. China will never have a 100% chance of a clean and cheap win, but there is bound to be a point where the potential gains clearly outweigh the risk and by every ship China builds and every piece of new gear the soldiers get this point is getting closer. The US has to make sure the risk is still high enough. Strengthening the navy, selling weapons to Taiwan, moving more forces into the region, international treaties and higher public commitment all make the risks of initiating the attack higher.
The real risk for china is not the US. Its every other nation in asia. China is diplomatically a pariah. If it demonstrates its willingness to use force for territorial conquest, that us a very clear sign for many of its neighbours that they could be next, abd rest assured, they will strike while china is at its weakest. Embroiled in a difficult amphibious invasion that is.
Russia will fight side by side with China against the US. So, it's highly unlikely the US will go to war with China, cause Russia and even North Korea will get involved. Russia and China are both nuclear powers, it would be a very big mistake for the US to make.
If I remember properly, China’s strategy is cultural and economic integration in Taiwan, which would cause the island to join them willingly. This attains’s China’s optimal solution without breaking the peaceful status quo. But they simultaneously need to make Taiwan uncomfortable enough to not seek independence. Tricky. As things are, China’s approach is long term at best. The environment just isn’t right for unification. I think a few things would need to happen for Taiwan to even consider it 1) a major disaster (like an earthquake) or economic depression cripples the Taiwanese economy 2) the current leadership totally botches the response, making problems worse - this means both businesses and people are upset 3) China’s economy is in really good shape 4) the USA doesn’t help Taiwan recover With sufficient cultural integration, this may create at least a unification movement within Taiwan. Essentially, things start to suck really badly, the government is making it worse, and the USA plays hands off. That may lead people to China’s open arms, so long as they sign away sovereignty. But that’s a pretty long shot
Yea, so this has been essentially the Chinese policy for decades, but Xi is rather impatient. He has explicitly come out and stated that if Taiwan doesn't change course towards unification soon, then he is going to consider military options. According to some projections, this could happen anywhere between 2025 to 2027. If you think about it, that's not long at all from now. Meanwhile, they are still doing some pretty nefarious things to sway public opinion, all the way to funding pro-China political parties, to paying local gangs to do their bidding, all the way to over-fishing around Taiwan to deny the locals of their ability to fish for food.
@@Pouncer_Fox I think calls of military intervention are a bluff. Taiwan is, quite frankly, very difficult to invade. China would blow a lot of international investments, diplomatic weight, and money vying for an invasion that might not even work. And that’s if the US doesn’t send troops! I thought Putin wouldn’t invade Ukraine because invading Ukraine would be stupid. Well, I was right about that second bit. Xi Jinping seems more intelligent than Putin. Less of a strongman, more of a politician. And he has the benefit of Putin testing the waters for him. Invading Taiwan would be the stupidest thing the PRC has done since opening up, maybe ever. Mao killing all the sparrows gives strong competition in terms of unforced errors. And of course Beijing is being very aggressive in their economic/cultural campaign for integration. These things don’t happen naturally. It’s more ethical than invading, but that’s a pretty low bar lol
@@52flyingbicycles For what it's worth, I really do hope you are right. My basic position is for China not to invade at all. But if they do, I hope Taiwan is doing everything they can to defend themselves.
Needs to happen, we all know one of the biggest reasons China wants Taiwan is for that super factory for microchips. We need to be able to compete with that going into our tech heavy future
@@WoahJustTakeItEasyMan China is not looking for Taiwan for that, microchips are just a business for the defense of Taiwan China seeks to annex Taiwan out of sheer anger pride, the fact that the communist party has failed to take down the previous government is annoying to guys like Xi Jingping, besides that it's the only thing that prevents China from being a complete maritime power
@@WoahJustTakeItEasyMan Invading to take over chip manufacturing facilities doesn't make much sense. A huge war would have a high likelihood of damaging those facilities beyond repair.
@@aliensinnoh1 it's just one reason of many, but it's absolutely a major asset they want under their control. Of course they also want the dominating force in South China sea, and they want the world to see them as a superpower that can project strength. But it's interesting how they were fine with the one china policy for decades, and now in our current microchip era... they have declared they plan to "reclaim" taiwan by 2027. Doesn't seem like a coincidence
Years ago, it would be a choice for the US to defend Taiwan or not. Today, it's a necessity as we rely on Taiwan for our computer chips that power everything we use, not just weapons. We also need to hold Taiwan to secure Japan and South Korea, and to prevent PRC from having easy and secretive access to the Pacific Ocean. So in effect, the US does not have a choice but to prevent Taiwan from falling into PRC's hands.
@@l34hanThat’s a completely different case. Ukraine doesn’t have access to the ocean easily therefore even if Russia gained complete control of Ukraine they couldn’t move so “secretly” without the EU and US knowing about it. If China gained control of Taiwan they would’ve easy access to international water. Get the big difference?
I cringe at the number of RUclipsrs who assume that U.S. intelligence hasn't already thought through every possible scenario offered in these admonishing videos. Johnny Harris does the same thing constantly. This is the same U.S. intelligence community that accurately predicted the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February, 2022, not the intelligence community that spectacularly failed to predict the outcome of the Iraq and Afghan wars 20 years ago.
I don't see how you see them so differently. The intelligence community (NSA, CIA, RAND) generally operates outside of political cycles. US intelligence really lacks HUMINT frequently (badly interpreted reports, lack of sources, etc), but satellite imagery and communications interception are absolutely second to none. The people doing strategic planning generally are sound as long as they have good inputs. This interplay is why a) the US correctly detected troop buildup and action plans for invading Ukraine b) the US missed the part where the Russian soldiers were way too busy selling military hardware for booze to bother doing regular maintenance on their vehicles and c) why the strategic assessment was that Ukraine would get quickly rolled over and that the best action available was to arm a predicted large, bloody insurgency. So the US intelligence was partially right; HOWEVER, that miss on the Russian troop/equipment quality meant that we missed the opportunity to ship them heavy weaponry immediately which would have really put a stop to this invasion quickly.
Okay why don't make a video on exactly what information you have from US intelligence on the subject matter...oh wait you have none except this retarded comment. Thanks bro! So useful! Why don't you go back to playing fortnite and hoping your streaming career will take off.
There's also the political appointees between the IC and President who filtered the information based on 43's interests and preferences, giving a rosy picture leading quickly to "Mission Accomplished".
If America is "overly aggressive" for "pushing for war", then I'd like to know what the Chinese Navy constantly harrassing Taiwan, the Phillipines, South Korea, and Japan is considered.
In fact, China's attitude towards reunification never changed. The reason why Taiwan can maintain its current situation is that in 1950, when the People's Liberation Army tried to land on Taiwan to end the war, China and the United States broke out in Korea, and the United States fleet entered the Taiwan Strait. This action made the landing impossible. In theory, the war is not over.In fact, the mainland has also formulated several offensive plans, but they have all stopped because of the United States.This also made China realize that it is impossible to bypass the United States to achieve a unified plan. So in the future, conflicts with the United States may occur before unified action
The fact that this video came out at almost the same time as RLL's and Not what You think's videos, on China and Taiwan.. and all are like ~20 mins long
I think Tw authority doesn't appreciate you guys.... i realized that they passed a bill to cut military retiree pension benefit.... perhaps time to wake up....
Ironically, when he says that foreign policy is being obsessed with the American perspective he continues to ignore the Chinese side. He is completely discounting any domestic Chinese motivation for escalation and exclusively focused on American actions changing the staus quo, it's a very odd take.
That being said with the release of the new American policy plan document thing, people now have an idea of what the US is setting up for. Thanks to the news cycle having the attention of a toddler it's their main focus atm
Unfortunately, this video makes the same fundamental mistake that so many others do: saying that Taiwan needs to “declare independence”. Taiwan does not need to do that. Taiwan (ROC) is already an independent nation. It has never been part of any other nation. Practically everyone in Taiwan supports the status quo, which is independence as the ROC, an independence we already have and our government has openly emphasized numerous times.
…do you know what a real country means? A group of people being together and say they’re a country doesn’t mean they’ve built a country. Two weeks ago Blinken said again, that US does not support Taiwan independence, and they support one-China policy. Taiwan doesn’t dare to declare independence, because the moment they do, the war starts, and they know it.
16:35 as a Taiwanese, I can tell you all that many Taiwanese were outraged when we heard about the laying mines and sea mines option a few years ago. US is basically asking us completely forget about our economy that heavily depends on exporting and transfer ports. Which country would dare send their cargo ships to our ports to trade with us? US is asking us to starve to death in our so called "porcupine fortress".
So we are asking Taiwan to be more like Switzerland or Finland? It is entirely possible for a country in a tense region to both fortify itself to the teeth and also retain economic power. And in fact, be filthy rich. Of course, there is a careful balance that has to be balanced IN THE SHORT TERM, but in the long term it can be done. Keep in mind this is a deterrence strategy, not something intended to be used. Yes, if war happens, then the strategy has already partially failed.
You are not smart to compare Taiwan with Switzerland, Finland or even Ukraine. These countries have NATO backup and can transport resources through land. Taiwan is an island and wouldn't even have enough food if a blockade happens. Also, it's a lot easiser for Switzerland, Finland, Ukraine to keep war refugees safe by leaving the war zone unlike Taiwan. Finally, don't forget that there is still an identity crisis going on in Taiwan, most people disagree with CCP but many still recognize their Chinese heritage. This reduces overall combat willingness as well.
In the hypothetical case that China resort to force to unificate twain or wherever they call the process, The taiwanese people think deserve to fight for their indenpence, I suppose the people there is concient it is not possible to win againt china, and a situation where usa and thier alliae send weapon just will increase the destruction.
What alternative do you propose? If china wants to invade it must do so in 15 years or give up any dream of doing so. So the threat if it exists must mitigated here and now.
I also doubt what will happen if that happen, but the problem u concern may have a solution. did u know they airdropped west Berlin for a year at 1948. anyway depend on yourself better than others@@cdub1059
@@nickyliu8762Japan considers this a threat to national security… so yeah they will get involved, shit happens when you attempt to attack another country.
@@zenpai5998 Japanese government does but the Japanese people are deeply pacifist and inward. It will be very difficult to get/force Japanese men to go out in the sea and fight the PLA.
@@bashtosmash03 Japan will just wait for the US to intervene and save them. It's a neutered country. They'll do everything the US asks of them except militarily join the war. Much of the young men spend all their free time on video games and anime, too scared to even ask a girl out. How many will pick up a gun and fight the PLA a sea away, the largest army in the world?
From the national security point of view, Taiwan is key to the US policy of containment. This is why the US is maintaining alliances with S. Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines. We want to contain the PRC's aggression by surrounding it with allies in the pacific, and abandoning Taiwan would basically let hell break lose.
What PRC aggression? I don't see the prc invading iraq or funding terrorism groups in the middle east? How many governments and leaders did the CIA topple and how many did their chinese equivalent did?
@@AlhussainbaLet’s be real here, China is incapable of invading anyone in this day and age, and invasion wouldn’t be beneficial overall, they can use diplomacy to get what they want. China did try to invade Vietnam but fail, and did reannex Tibet the moment it got the chance. America does it because it can absolutely get away with it, China doesn’t because they are incapable of withstanding the consequences. If China was capable of doing that they would certainly do what America does, probably worse things too.
@@Alhussainba The US has had its bad deeds, it's undisputable. But if you go to somewhere in East, SE or NE Asia, you will know that people there hate China to some extent for a reason. Not really breaking into your house and trying to kill you, but to the extent of frequently sabotaging your backyard and sometimes claiming it as theirs. And for a geopolitical point of view, the US stands a similar interest as them, that's all. I'm sorry about what the US did in the middle east, but I have to say that I don't like whenever people talk about China's agression, someone has to divert the topic pointing out that the US has done worse. Yes, but that doesn't rule out the fact that China IS getting more aggressive against its neighbors. And in those neighbors' perspective, that has to be dealt with.
As a Filipino, I don't like PRChina at all. Beijing funded the Commie NPA here that is still a problem even to this day. They took away what is rightfully tye Philippines under the UNCLOS and shot at out fishermen. No way I am going to accept those dirty Commies as anything close to friends...
As often with videos covering this topic, the subject of Taiwans elections is sorely missing. Something which is extremely important to understand the ebb and flow of Chinas aggressiveness and friendliness towards Taiwan. Taiwan is currently ruled by the DPP/“the green party”. One that generally moves towards independence (but very slowly). This pushes China towards aggression in an attempt to scare the people of Taiwan from voting for them, and to discourage DPP from moving towards independence. The problem is that China has painted themselves into a corner. Due in part to their aggression, the KMT party, which has been the one favouring the one china principle (though hypothetically under KMT, even if that’s completely unrealistic at this point), is increasingly becoming unelectable. To young people they’re seen as Chinas puppet. Perhaps righty so. The only way out of this vicious cycle is for China to change its attitude towards the DPP. Changing their level of aggression or diplomacy towards Taiwan based on the ruling party is simply not viable anymore. They would likely have much more to gain by continuing to strengthen economic ties even during times when DPP is the ruling party. It’d make it easier for KMT to be elected again, and it’d make Taiwan more economically dependent on China. DPP can’t and won’t declare full independence anyway. China has nothing to lose. Unfortunately the current leader of China is just not very bright. It’s well known that his judgement is extremely clouded by ideology and has surrounded himself with yes men. We just have to hope that the status quo can be maintained until he is gone.
Actually has a misunderstanding. During the last year local election, kmt take the control of 3/4 counties during the election. So actually taiwanese don't elects the kmt in president isn't mainly due to they dislike the perspective of kmt instead of the unpopular presidency canditates from kmt and chaotic presidency compaign
From a taiwanese point of view, people in Taiwan care more about domestic policy than foreign policy. So no matter the blue or green party wins, it does not imply whether we want independence or not
Operation Causeway was a US plan to invade Japanese-occupied Taiwan during WW2. They estimated that they would need 600 000 men to beat the small Japanese force and in the end, the plan was scrapped because they thought that it would fail and estimated that it would be easier to just invade the Japanese mainland instead. Taiwan is a natural fortress. The only way to take it would be to raze it to the ground with air strikes and missiles...but doing so completely and utterly defeats the purpose of conquering Taiwan in the first place so I really don't understand why so many armchair generals on RUclips think that this is even remotely a possibility. Russia also could have already ''won'' against Ukraine by just nuking it into the ground you know...but why would they? You're not gaining anything by ''conquering'' a country that way.
Well nuking would instantly make you the enemy of humanity , even the United states could not save face If they did something remotly close to that, let Alone anyone Else . Yes It would make the soil unfertile for economic activity but you are missing the """glory""" and gaining political Grace internaly, no matter How destructive the policies in the New acquired territories would be .
However the destructive Nature of It would only be nullified If It were quick and decisive, as the war drags on It becomes increasingly harder to see good in a supposed pyric victory
It isn't really the economic benefits of taking the island that make it enticing. Despite being "communist", its nationalism that keeps the CCP popular and in power. Once and for all ending the Chinese Civil War and having a China unified under one state would massively boost credibility for the CCP, as well as shattering the US strategic position in the region, allowing free access to the Pacific with fewer chokepoints. Also, this largely discounts the fact that there are still Chinese Nationalist elements in Taiwan. The DPP hasn't washed away the idea that Taiwan is a part of China, especially among older people. The question is whether or not those Chinese nationalists will be able to get over their grudge against the CCP and whether or not they can stay politically relevant as a demographic. If so, then bombing the island to pieces will not be so necessary. The Ukraine example is not comparable either. Ukrainians and Russians are far more different from one another than mainlanders and Taiwanese. The vast majority of Taiwanese people were moved in by the KMT after they lost hold of the mainland to the CCP. They were not remotely democratic until the 80s, and their critical economic position as the microchip capital of the world didn't arise until around that time too. So yes, the threat of CCP invasion of Taiwan is real.
"defeats the purpose of conquering" It does not, as in a last resort. The land is China, if it takes 20years to repopulate is not a big deal, that it is now China for the next 4980 years is more important to PRC.
Correct: Japan did not “occupied” Taiwan, Japan has full sovereignty over Taiwan since 1895馬關treaty, until Japan gave up sovereignty over Taiwan at 1945. Since then Taiwan legal status is “undecided “, and subsequent ROC occupation government has ruled the island for 70 years without legitimacy and sovereignty over taiwan. The most important question should be asked is that where do US stand when 23 million innocent people one the island, who has been victim of geographical power conflict for over 400 years and continued to fell under threats of either massive genocide unseen in history or slavery camp that made Xinjiang labor camp seemed naive in the future. Taiwan strait is not only threshold to peace over entire pacific country union, but also the life line of US strategic interests over half of the globe. And let’s not forget 60% of world trade cargo go through Taiwan strait and its nearby ocean, once taiwan falls under prey of invasion, regional blockade and subsequent sanctions would easily crash down global economy, with rest of the world facing economic impact unseen in history and a unstoppable autocracy regime who wishes to replace US.
I think they will! They are building capabilities in the region and Japan especially has also been improving its defence industry. Ultimately, no neighbour of China wants to see them gain a foothold in the region due to the nine-dash line and territorial ambitions. As we are currently seeing in Ukraine, a so called big power needs support to keep up momentum because if not well…things go south pretty quickly.
I have a better question: Will China even attempt an invasion of Taiwan? Looking at the current state of the Russian military, it would not surprise anyone if China were in a similar state. Although the fact that the US becomes closed or weak is still very big
What's wrong with the Russian military.....I think you need to understand the nuanced reasons why Russia invaded Ukraine and Russia has successfully attained those aims ....Russias intention was never to conquer Ukraine....Russia wanted the Donbas region...they failed to capture Kyiv and force Ukraine into a humiliating treaty but they quickly realised that and pulled away and focused on the donbas..If the Russian military was in such a sorry state as pro western media would have us believe, I don't think they would be supplying aircraft to Mali or sponsoring coups in Sudan or holding off the counter offensive, or even successfully crushing a mutiny within hours....Prigozhin knew what he was facing and he got scared and for someone who fought in Bakhmut ,that's saying something. I'm not pro Russia but the media constantly moves the goalposts when talking about Russias goals in order to create a narrative that the Russians haven't achieved anything...Bakhmut went from a non important city, to a ruin that would be useless, to a city of zero strategic value again ,but Ukrainians are attacking and attacking bakhmut again and if they advance it's referred to as a strategic city but if they are repelled the media says they are feeling for weaknesses at the Russian front ,I mean which is which
The weird thing about this discussion is how it's laser focused on Beijing and DC. What almost never comes up: what do the Taiwanese want? That, theoretically, should be what's driving the discussion.
Well, it's not unification with China, and unfortunately they don't have enough guns to voice opinions that people will actually hear out further than that 😅. I think if you did polling, minus the whole "if we say independence, China might invade tomorrow" issue, the Taiwanese would generally prefer to be independent and just live their lives and do their own thing from what I've read of interviews.
@@JMurph2015 Just think about it, what would the Taiwanese gain from this? They would suddenly not have a democracy, or free speech, freedom to travel etc.... Right now they live better than any Chinese could ever.
I always find myself thinking “What is this world leader doing?! They’ve just made a comedic blunder that has destroyed years of progress!” But when I actually look deeper into these questions I almost always realize that those decisions make a lot of sense given the current circumstances, we always laught at world leaders, but most of these people are actually geniuses in their field.
The little things would make a difference here. Stockpiling food and fuel, increasing military conscription, and preparing ship denial defenses are what Taiwan should be focusing on and the US should help them do it. And if Taiwan declares independence the US should back it. If China is smart their response to this will be economic rather than militaristic. Cutting off trade, denying visas, etc.
And the US will. Although this video does not discuss, there are many other entanglements that make Taiwan's democracy a security must for places far away as Australia.
U.S can't back their independence as PRC only allows countries to choose one, no way U.S would ditch diplomatic ties and embassies in a country that is 1/6th of the planet.
Normally i agree with almost everything on polymatter videos, except in this one. Chinese aggression towards Taiwan is not unique nor it’s only conflict related to territorial disputes. The whole 9 dash line in the South China Sea, the board conflicts with India , and Taiwan show an overall hostile attitude towards its neighbors as a whole and this is why US rhetoric has been much more aggressive. It’s no longer a Taiwan China issue it’s a China south East Asian problem with the potential to put into the first and second island chain.
Do your homework first. Do you even know who drew those lines?! Chiang did that and the US endorsed that! Only after the CCP took over the Mainland, the US' position on the South China Sea began to change. Fun fact: Taiwan did not recognize the arbitration because those lines were drawn by your beloved Chiang Kai-shek😂
I really want a full history of the civil war that lead to the split, any and all treaties signed by the two parties, and how each side views those. Is the war over? Is it a ceasefire? Something like Korea? Most videos take one side or the other, mostly based on which side they want to take today, and project those arguments back in time.
Two go to dates: 1894 and the Republic of Formosa - pre 1600 when, according to oral history, Beautiful Sweet Potato Island was populated and ruled by 19 city states.
Nothing has been signed or resolved. The PRC and ROC governments are technically still at war with one another. Yet two way trade is over $400 billion a year.
Well the fact is the ROC and KMT were both founded in China back when Taiwan was part of the Japanese empire. They did not even originally claim Taiwan because Taiwan was Japan's territory. The Chinese civil war began when Taiwan was part of the Japanese empire, and most of it was fought while Taiwan was part of the Japanese empire. So the Chinese civil war initially had absolutely nothing at all to do with Taiwan. When the ROC/KMT lost to the communists in China and fled to Taiwan in 1949, they oppressed the Taiwanese for 4 decades as a military dictatorship imposing martial law and the Taiwanese generally preferred Japanese rule over the ROC/KMT dictatorship. So it is absolutely nothing like Korea, because Taiwan and China are historically separate (only ruled together for 212 years under the Manchurian Qing dynasty) - and the Taiwanese people were actually oppressed by the ROC foreign government in exile. The ROC was a foreign oppressor to the Taiwanese The ROC in Taiwan should get some credit for becoming democratic in the 1990's, but that was really only because Taiwan-born politicians forced them to end their military dictatorship and democratize. The Taiwanese have since voted the KMT party (originally from China) out of power more often than not, replacing it with the homegrown Taiwanese DPP party (actually founded in Taiwan)
@@hc434 We repeat: According to the best interpretation of oral history, Beautiful Sweet Potato Island, before 1600AD, was governed by 19 city-states who have common ancestors with the King of Tonga. Perhaps the King of Tonga should decide the sovereignty over Beautiful Sweet Potato Island!
@@SewolHoONCE that is one of several options which would make a lot more sense than giving control to the CCP which has never controlled Sweet Potato Island for even 1 nanosecond in history
I have written this in what feels like a hundred billion comment sections now but I'll say it again here. An invasion of Taiwan is not as easy as a decision being made in Beijing. China can't (successfully) invade Taiwan at this moment and they very very frustratingly know it. Because their navy is lacking the one thing needed more than anything else to carry it out. Troopships. They have troopships but the number they currently have is enough to deliver just enough troops so as to be overwhelmed and crushed very quickly. And they're not likely to have the proper number for some time because they're too busy building aircraft carriers that break very easily and other surface warships that are over matched the second they leave port by the navy of the United States. And before someone suggests Airborne landings- No. This isn't D-Day in 1944. Any attempted Airborne landing by the PRC would get more than half their drop ships blown out of the sky 4 seconds after breaching Taiwanese airspace. So an invasion is just not in the cards for the PRC anytime soon. Because a failed invasion would be a thousand times more damaging diplomatically than militarily.
The real question is could China actually invade Taiwan and successfully take it over? Taiwan is basically a floating fort/aircraft carrier with US aircraft carrier islands all around.
Answer is no. The amphibious assault to claim the island would be suicide, and even if they manage to fight their way to the island, it’ll be Vietnam 2.0 given its terrain and vast network of underground bases in the mountains. If the Taiwanese people choose to fight, no nation could occupy this island
Contrary to other respondents, I truly think the answer is yes they can take it over. China can quite feasibly take control of Taiwan, but given the geography it will be with a heavy heavy cost. The real question isn't IF it can be done, it's questions of how long will it take and how much will it cost that matter in my opinion. The time it takes will determine the international response, and the toll(militarily, economically, etc) will determine when it will be worth it. .
@@prodigalsoniv48The assumption is always of a preliminary amphibious assualt, but what is not explained is why China would ever do this. Instead of committing to such a costly maneuver, what stops China from simply blockading Taiwan and sinking any U.S. ships that come to relieve it?
In PRC Constitution, Taiwan is Part of China, and PLA will "Defend every inch of China (Taiwan included) from foreign invasion", if US decide to build a military base in Taiwan, even if Taiwanese government accept (even asking US to build it military bases in Taiwan soil), PRC might interpreted as an "Foreign Invasion against Chinese soil"
When I was in the military, we would constantly have to chase China out of the territorial waters of other countries, where they didn't belong. If you want extremely in-depth academic information regarding what countries like Russia and China are doing; then I highly encourage using these useful resources, which have extensive reports: - Amnesty International - Atlantic Council - Carnegie Endowment - Cato Institute - Center for New American Security - Center for Strategic and International Studies - Foundation for Defense of Democracy - Helsinki Commission - Heritage Foundation - Hudson Institute - Human Rights Watch - National Endowment for Democracy - Royal United Services Institute - Stimpson Center - Wilson Center
add Asianometry to understand how UEV is not only the key to the 4th tech revolution, it explains how there is no way around the fact that the USA dep of Energy owns the company that sells the tech licenses( UEV LLC) which sold the license to ASML. #1 no way around this issue, #2 no way a to appease without giving up military compeditiveness #3 china cannot escape middle income without defeating usa hegemony in order to strong arm acess to UEV. point is, guaranteed us china war period. imo this is a secret kept tight to protect the markets.
The fact that we get free videos on RUclips by PolyMatter is truly a gift. 👍👍👍 May I remind you the forgotten fact that Native Americans population in their motherland, Continent of America before the European Colonizers arrived, was around 15 millions, while European population in their motherland, Continent of Europe was around 25 millions. Today, Native American population is 15 million, while the European population, in the Continents of America + Europe, is a staggering 'TWO BILLION'! A shockingly sad truth. In my humble opinion, it's about time to decolonize the Colonized lands, and return North/South America and Australia/New Zealand in Asia-Pacific to rightful owners Native American people and Native Asian-Pacific people. Remember, notorious global cardinal crimes the Christian West has committed, and benefited a great deals, such as Slavery & Colonialism had long been over, why on earth is notorious Colonization still lingering on, may I ask?
My jaw dropped as I read Native Americans population in their motherland, Continent of America before the European Colonizers arrived, was around 15 millions, while European population in their motherland, Continent of Europe was around 25 millions. Today, Native American population is 15 million, while the European population, in the Continents of America + Europe, is a staggering 'TWO BILLION'.. It is a shocking sad truth.
@@doubtingthomas9612 The West would commit and practice a great many cardinal sins, many of them knowingly, such as centuries-long global; - 'Colonization', - 'Genocide', - 'Slavery', - 'Colonialism', - 'Global Warming', etc which benefits them enormously for centuries worldwide; then they would initiate and take a measure to ban those practices worldwide, and take credit for it. [Note: Today's global warming is caused in large part by nearly two centuries of excessive coal burning, mainly in the West.]
Ambiguity and concessions encouraged Putin to attack Ukraine. If in 2008 Ukraine and Georgia had been given the same defence guarantees Sweden and Finland were when they announced their NATO candidacies, they would still be at peace and intact.
@@skirata3144 why? There is already small states which are not in nato and Putin doesn't conquer them. It's the existing of nato done 33% in justifying his conflicts.
The US has no legal obligation to defend Taiwan. It does have a _sacred_ duty to defend them, in the sense that with great power must come great responsibility, and if the US is going to become so powerful, then we DO have a duty of care to defend the weak from bullies.
@@GenocideWesterners My tax money will pay for missiles that will die for Taiwan. This will largely be an air and sea battle, and china doesn't have anything that can get within striking distance of a US asset.
Biden certainly has some moments. Some are good, and some, not so much. At least he's not a serial prevaricator like his predecessor. He only lies some of the time. ;)
5:24 Actually can we turn NATO into this arrangement? Of course I want America to protect Britain, Germany, Italy, and so on. But I feel we'd get more out of NATO if instead of a mutual defensive obligation, we just said "OK, we're the ones spending money, we call the shots. If we don't want to do something, we have the option of helping our ally but zero obligation"
@@Homer-OJ-Simpson not really. If you start attacking China, then it would seem partisan. The Mainland, Taiwan, and US have different lens on this issue. And frankly, the way American frame things often just makes the Mainland and Taiwan more skittish. He did a great job presenting the mainland and Taiwan perspective, and highlighted how different actions by different actors build on each other. If you want videos on attacking China and more tough rhetoric, you obviously would look elsewhere because that wasn't the point of the videos.
@@Wha2les " If you start attacking China, then it would seem partisan." This is what I call the false 'centrist' argument. Would you say the same about Adolph? Would you produce a youtube video detailing what he did with a 'centrist' angle? Would a totally not bias non partisan video of Adolph make both the Jews and Adolph look equal? I understand what your saying but I disagree. Playing right down the middle makes it look like both sides have equal arguments but that is dangerous and can lead to prop/agandda.
@@Homer-OJ-Simpson we are not talking about the morality of governments. Like the United States is the beacon of virtues? You tell me a government that is the untarnished beacon of virtue, and I'll buy you dinner or something. We are only talking about the territorial dispute of the unfinished Civil war in China. You can not blame the Mainland for wanting to complete its territorial claim on Taiwan. It's not like ROC doesn't have claims on Mainland China either. Both claim each other and the South China Sea, and ROC also claimed Mongolia too. Nor can you attack Taiwan for not wanting to unify with the mainland right now. After all, it is easier to give a society freedoms than to take it away. And Taiwan sees how Hong Kong is changing and they are saying no thanks. Those are the facts. Human rights record and all your other criticisms on China, US, etc doesn't matter. We are only in this mess because the CCP in 1949 wasn't able to cross the Taiwan Straits to conquer Taiwan after the KMT fucked up the war on the mainland. And if you look at all the insane logistics of D-Day, you would not expect them to. And that is why this problem exist. Your Hitler argument is irrelevant... Hitler wanted to take over Europe and disregard other countries sovereignty and eradicate people he didn't like. That is totally different than the China Taiwan issue. Taiwan was a part of China before 1890s when China lost Taiwan to Japan. Japan returned it after WW2 and was under Chinese territorial sovereignty when the KMT fled there in 1949. It's like saying if US have a civil war today, and the green party or whatever fled to Hawaii and govern it separately from Washington while maintaining everything else as American, it would be biased/partisan/whatever to say obviously US have an interest in reunifying with Hawaii... When it is perfectly rational.
Taiwan is a de facto independent country and a very important part of island chain of defense. That is for sure. I think the key for Taiwan to maintaining the status quo is to enhance the forces and become a permanent neutral country as Switzerland does, which can guarantee that Taiwan has the ability to avert the crisis and hurts caused by conflicts between two superpowers.
You just replied this to me too. While that's right, but it probably won't be the case for too long. And I replied there, so I'll wait for a reply again
Taiwan is part of China. The old imperials fled there back in the day, in response to the people revolting. Neither these folks or the folks on the mainland thought it was a separate country. Don't fall for propeganda like this. We're in the middle of doing another Iraq in the Ukraine as it is.
In my opinion America would most likely only defend Taiwan if they can repel initial attacks, long enough for media coverage to make Taiwan the main issue. Without public opinion I believe support will only be in material much like with the Ukrainian conflict. Though many of the ways America and the NATO block aid Ukraine would not be viable for a nation that may not be able to keep their own waters safe for aid shipments since they have no land routes, air based shipments would be far less efficient and difficult with the likely Chinese air and sea blockade that would make it a provocation for foreign aid to come through Taiwanese air space though I believe America would ignore Chinese threats to foreign shipments. Taiwan is valuable for their large share in computing production and hard for America to ignore but they most likely wouldn't use direct force to defend Taiwan as this will be an act of war from the Chinese perspective and if China is willing could lead to a full scale war in the Pacific region as a whole. Americas best advantage is the deterrence they have continually provided by tacitly given via military movements through the Taiwanese waters and joint training
If China could present the US with a fait accompli, then it would. The fact that it can't is the primary reason it doesn't want to do anything to Taiwan, as a losing war would demolish both pillars of the CCP's legitimacy (nationalism and economic growth.)
@@jackthorton10 When they are on the edge, they will resort to the most horrific forms of opression to maintain power. They can justify it with the typical "stability" line, as civil war is probably worse than stable dictatorship.
The more I think about the two Chinas / Taiwan issue, the more I think about how Chiang Kai-Shek, the Kuomintang and Imperial Japan really screwed up back then and indirectly created a Chinese superpower that we are facing today. Had Imperial Japan not invaded China, videos like this wouldn't exist.
I think there are some things in this that are a bit unrealistic, for example the thing about "China's fears". The PRC is already at a maximum level of distrust to anything the US does, what ever the US does, they will view it as some sneaky way of undermining them. The development in the last 10 years is also going in a bad direction with this, the PRC will ALWAYS assume that the US (and all of the west, and others too) are out to get them and to overthrow the communist party even. Things that might seem silly and exaggerated to us, might seem like the most obvious truth in China. And unlike the time from ~1995 to ~2015, the rhetoric inside the PRC is now set to a very highly agressive level of internal propaganda, and the majority of the population responds well to this. Since they are cut off from foreign information as most people don't use VPNs and feel they don't trust any non-Chinese information anyway, they are not worried, since they are informed that Europe and the US are in a state of internal warfare, no industry, a complete collapse of society and state power, this is what China feeds it's population, they feel VERY superior. So specially now that China's economy is starting to wobble and certain facts about their own society and economy can't be hidden from the middle class in the big cities any longer, they might do something that would normally be considered reckless, just to keep people placated and satisfied. If the living standars starts deteriorating ever further for the middle class people in the big cities, something must be done to stop disaffection. A small war, "We've had enough of the western provocations, our hand has been forced" and invading the islands off the mainland coast in a peaceful unification, where only troublemakers who resist and anti-communists get killed maybe only half of the islands populations. A win for peaceful China against the global American hegemony. This would be something that could keep many people in China satisfied. Specially the younger people of the middle class that have grown up on increasingly jingoistic propaganda it would even increase their happiness even with declining material conditions, food shortages, increasing brownouts, 30% youth unemployment they could be high on war, specially if there are few casualties on their side which is likely if they use all they have on these little islands, they'd be high and ecstatic over their victory even as their living conditions decrease. It's unclear how long you can be that high on national pride before it wears out and you need a new kick to forget the decreasing living conditions. And they would for sure be decreasing, because after something like that, western countries would NOT keep their preferential trade deals with China, and might even start with sanctions similar to or even stronger than those on Russia and embargoes on certain goods, this would of course hurt the Western economies too, but not nearly as much as it would hurt China, some big corporations that hadn't foreseen this at all might go under at that point, but many corporation would fairly quickly move their production base to other low cost manufacturing countries instead. This process of moving out production from China and thinking more strategically about dependencies has already started but in a slow way.
"Tomorrow feels like a better time to act than today" -- this is the calculus that's completely changing with China's demographic decline, and as a result of that, China's economy peaking. If there is general unrest within mainland China to the extent that rattles CCP's confidence in their ability to govern, then a Taiwan invasion is inevitable. Unfortunately, unrest occurring during a terminal economic decline is also inevitable.
@glowyboi7175Lol, you think America going to war to defend a bunch of Asians on the other side of the world would get a lot of public support? You clearly have never even been to the Western hemisphere. Most Americans don’t know what a Taiwan is.
Absolutely wrong lol, taiwan is the first domino in freaking WW3, everyone in asia knows this . If taiwan falls and america ignores it means china has been loosened from its chains China is already misbehaving and everyone is already on edge Even without china invading them just taiwans fall will mean china controls the south china sea and by default has colonised asia , Japan cannot allow this and will immediately attack to kick the chinese OFF Taiwan
This is a superb vlog. Perceptive and thoughtful. Thank you. In the back of my mind is the fact that Taiwan makes most of the worlds Chips. This must weigh heavily in the scale of things.
Thank you. It is difficult to come upon even-handed analysis of these sorts of issues these days. Most people do not seek understanding on these matters, so much as trying to persuade the viewer to dislike one side or the other.
Although I hate when people comment before watching the video, I know, without any doubt America will defend Taiwan if attacked. The geological responsibility that America holds with nations other than Taiwan requires maintaining it's sovereignty.
American will support taiwan independence and fight againts china? Probably yes, but will US will directly Involved with this conflict? Probably not, Remember that both china and US are nuclear nation, there is no history of both nuclear nation are directly attack each other, not even in the cold war, most of war is proxy. Just think, if US and Nato are not even dare to involved directly on ukraine war, why you still think that US will take direct force againts china?? Remember that war with china are far more costly that war with Russia
@@zack2804 Sure, we did colonize the Philippines a couple centuries ago but we are not imperialist today like China. They still warship Chairman Mao who's killed more people than Ivan the Terrible.
If you're a Nebula subscriber, make sure to watch my "When Will China Invade Taiwan?" video after this one. If not, sign up for $2.50/month and watch it over a month before it's available on RUclips! go.nebula.tv/polymatter
Well, after getting all the necessary monopolized technologies and skills, I believe the US would still defend Taiwan, but with much less incentives. I believe, eventually the US would get bored and re-establish relations with China, but after years, while the Chinese are known for their leadership's commitment to whatever they do.
Simply, the US would certainly defend Taiwan, but up to a rational/economical point/limit
@@Omer1996E.C Taiwan is a de facto independent country and a very important part of island chain of defense. That is for sure.
I think the key for Taiwan to maintaining the status quo is to enhance the forces and become a permanent neutral country as Switzerland does, which can guarantee that Taiwan has the ability to avert the crisis and hurts caused by conflicts between two superpowers.
About to watch it right now, excited ngl
@@jacktam7673 that's hard, Taiwan is definitely not like Switzerland, it's a historical part of China, so the Chinese government would be ready to lose alot just to gain Taiwan, even if it wasn't for their semiconductors. The US won't defend them for too long for sure, it follows it's interests, the US isn't just led by ideological individuals, but interest seekers
@@Omer1996E.C
Firstly, in terms of history, Chinese people really like to use the phrase “from antiquity “. But they never define the so-called “antiquity”. According to their logic, we are all the descendants of African apes, we’re all Africans?🤡 sorry no offense.
Secondly, what if China really occupies Taiwan? It is not just the problem of semiconductors. It’s the problem of geopolitics for US and allies! That must be the nightmare of the world and US. US will not just wait and see.
The peace is maintained by "being ambiguous enough that both sides can interpret the terms optimistically enough to their satisfaction".
That is a beautiful single-sentence explanation to a very complex topic, thank you so much for this channel.
I think only China is deluding itself by saying Taiwan is its province 🤡
And still it evades the base line issue, its none of america's business.
@@sanriosonderweg no it is very important to the U.S any way you look at it. it is morally right to uphold the status quo because it keeps the world as peaceful as possible and secondly it is economically important to the U.S because both China and Taiwan are big players in the U.S economy. It is literally America's business in every sense of the word.
It’s a Schrödinger armistice
@@sanriosonderweg America entered into its current arrangement from a state of alliance with the Republic of China (Taiwan).
It is very much in America’s business to ensure the fair treatment of the ROC.
It amazes me that Taiwan managed to keep a hold of these islands so close to the mainland
it was our intention to leave them unoccupied by PLA so they can serve as communication channels~
@@tianxiabai1185 Do you have a source for that?
If you look at the historical record, the PLA hasn't had much luck winning anything other than land battles with overwhelming human waves... so back in the day, a well dug in army could really defend a small stronghold.
True, today Kinmen would probably fall in hours, but that is no surprise given how the PLA has modernized. Also in 2022 we could not shoot down a small DJI drone that was flying above the outpost, but that was more because weapons use was not authorized for fear of starting an international incident.
Only due to US backing.
This civil war would have long been over and that chapter in Chinese history closed.
@joeyliao8937 not just kinmen. China's military could take all of taiwans outlying islands(kinmen,matsu,pratas,penghu and any islands that taiwan has in south china sea)
Many Taiwanese people, including me live and work in Xiamen. And it is funny to know that if war breaks out, I’m dead.
Warning! CCP regime is watching behind you 😎
I would hope, considering Chinese propaganda's insistence that you're really just lost family, that they'd simply roll in and go "See? China now." If there were a real attempt at defending it, though...
..谁跟你说的，真打仗你的待遇还会更好，因为有劝降作用懂吧
@@butterfly7562 Hello Chinese
I don't think anyone wants the war to continue
This is one of the best videos on the geopolitics of the China-Taiwan conflict I’ve ever seen. It summarizes and delivers neatly what think-tanks and academics have been saying on this issue for the past year or two, but through a much more accessible medium. Thank you PolyMatter!
It's a good day when both Real life lore and PolyMatter upload!
👀 Real Life Lore uploaded too? 🎉
Indeed.
Between Real Life Lore, Polymatter, Wendover Productions, Caspian Report and Kamome, we can be reliably saturated with high quality geopolitics content.
@@Encolasalthough Real-life lore used to have more of a unique approach. While all the other channels you listed feel like quality production, real life lore has succumbed to a boring audio book of Wikipedia pages
@@EncolasNeo, is another channel you may enjoy, quite similar to PolyMatter
@@yeetandrepeat4251 Used to watch, I’ll need to revisit. But I think that’s more in the mega projects category, which also has a number of great channels
"Sleepy villages" "100K people"
Wild to hear as a Norwegian.
Ha, yeah
Thats about half of yalls population
@@keyboardcommando7000 I hope this was a joke
As a Chinese born American, thank you poly matter to bringing this issue to our eyes. You have such a rich perspective telling these amazing stories! Keep on going!
Im pretty sure the dude is a Chinese American Econ student. Alot of his content focuses on China more than anything else. Love his content tho
@@darkgeneration100it's a major and interesting player on the global stage
@@darkgeneration100dude sounds so asian american its unreal
Family in US intelligence ay?
Both sides are becoming confident in winning such a war. So WW3 is probably going to happen. The question is when, not if. Even with US investing trillions and trillions into the war, it's still unlikely to win. China still could win, but the cost would be enormous.
PolyMatter and Real Life Lore making China related videos on the same day? It’s definitely a good morning.
Shushe ne hua che bing chilling bing chilling
Good mythical morning, some would say
It's NOT a coincidence
@@LuisSierra42:0
Not a coincidence at all bro
Watching this immediately after Real Life Lore’s video is a trip. Seems there’s a lot weighing on China these days. Either way, looking forward to this one.
He is being paid by China 😢
which Real Life Lore video?
@@danzwku this one here, which goes into detail about China’s current demographic crisis and it’s implications on the country’s future, potential invasion of Taiwan, etc. He uploaded a couple hours ago.
ruclips.net/video/KiaukPUV6Hg/видео.html
@@Uohhhh777 what? lol
@@Blastoise9000Having watched RLL for years now, this China video is based more for clicks and likes than actual unbiased content. His upload schedules give it it away. For every 3 legitimately insightful videos, there will be 1 video catering for public narrative. Works well though
China has to deploy at least one million soldiers to invade Taiwan in a naval amphibious invasion that would make the 1944 Normandy invasion look like a milder one.
Taiwan is part of China.
We just want to control the microchips.
Quite possibly much more than that, doubtful most ships would make it to the beach and Taiwan has been preparing the handful of viable landing spots for decades now
@@johnr797Military analysts have pointed out that Taiwan's defense forces are in great need of improvement
Normandy was easy compared to this, as after 1943 it was clear that the war would go on, it wont be a blitz anymore and that long war would not be in the favor of Nazi's. Before the soldier landed on normandy it was clear that which side as momentum which side the tide of war has turned who would win. In case of China's attack the amphibous assault would happen when the opponent (taiwan) would be strongest not the weakest compared to taiwan. The war would start by an amphiboius assault, It would be 10x times more difficult than Normandy then compare the terrain and weather, ocean behaviour etc
@@avinashtyagi2 Forces on both sides lack any real battle experience, and much of Chinese tech is just reverse engineered from stolen blueprints and documents, etc. We won't know exactly how it will go, but if the bases are fully established on the nearby Japanese islands just off the northeast coast of Taiwan, it could be a very costly prospect.
One of the most well-developed answers I've ever heard on a particularly complex subject! Thank you PolyMatter
I think South Korea and Japan will prompt USA to oppose China's potential unilateral changes to the status quo. Otherwise, USA might as well say goodbye to their dominance in the Pacific.
Yes. Due to the recent uptick in Chinese aggression, the US, Japan, and South Korea have entered a mutual defense treaty against what is essentially their common enemy. The US already had mutual defense treaties with Japan and SK respectively, but a tri-lateral joint cooperation between these two Asian countries are quite profound given their history.
While I'm here, the Philippines have also expanded their cooperation with the US, allowing them to operate several key bases there, with a sizeable uptick in forces that are stationed there. This is also huge.
There are other players in the region as well, including AUKUS for example, where Australia and the UK is also involved, thanks to direct Chinese meddling in Australia.
Oh and don't forget Vietnam and Malaysia.
China is making enemies all over SEA, and similar with Ukraine and NATO, has become the single biggest selling-point for growing cooperation with the US in the Pacific region.
@@Pouncer_FoxThe smartest move for China is to start to make non-aggression military pacts with South American and Middle Eastern countries . The US has made plenty of enemies there.
You've got to be kidding. Even if they have Taiwan and easier access to the pacific, do you really think China, with its *BROWN WATER NAVY* have even the faintest hope of unseating the US Navy?
Japan & South Korea are already working on mending their complicated relationship. They have a history that is problematic but they need each other and they really have a lot in common if they can move on from the past. They are also both very concerned with two major aggressive countries in the region, North Korea & China.
Vietnam is officially neutral but they are also working with the US to some capacity because they will want US help if part of China's aggression is towards Vietnam. And it's already well documented that Philippines is working with the US and expanded US troop and base presence in the country.
SK and Japan are junior allies to USA. when the time comes, the US will request resources from the two and others
Great video man - I'm starting to get worse at following the news through conventional channels, but I know I can always count on a video from you to break down a topic in detailed, well thought out manner.
thanks for sharing objective information. as chinese background living in australia, taiwanese people are one of the most kindness and gentle people i ever came across. fingers cross there is no war between china and taiwan
Don't you think that Taiwanese are probably the most traitorous? You are enjoying your life in Australia while Australia is preparing to Bomb china and make it into a puppet regime with the narrative "hate the government". Where's East Timor in that?
"If I'm curt with you, it's because time is a factor."
DA WOLFFE
Good general summary of the US's ambiguous stance on Taiwan... although I would argue its actually not that ambiguous. US allows Taiwan passport holders visa free entry into the US. That status alone puts Taiwan above many other US allies. I grew up in the US but spent summers in Taiwan and live here now. The main reason we don't fear invasion is, frankly, we know the US loves their iPhones way too much to allow China to control/shut down chip production. Biden understands this economic reality, that is why in addition to saying he would send troops to defend Taiwan, he also passed the CHIPS act.
Also just a small side note, the main island of Taiwan is called Taiwan. Just like the Big Island of Hawaii is called Hawaii. "Formosa" is more like referring to Jakarta as Batavia or Myanmar as Burma
Why don't any of ye ask the much more relevant question: CAN the US stop China from taking Taiwan. And the answer to that question is NO.
In Chinas backyard Chinese military rules supreme. US have no chance
it is not the iphones but the military interest in the worlds best chips available that ensures USA is going to defend taiwan - the US even has contingency plans to work with taiwan in an event that china tries an invasion - the first thing to happen if china were to be poised to take the island is that all the fabs would be destroyed and all of the important tsm workers would be airlifted to US ships and relocated to the US - china will never get their hands on the high end chip fabs (which is the real reason thewy want taiwan to begin with)
@@Zam_man all the military power shown by China in Taiwan was a response to USA approaching more and more by sea and building bases around, And looking at history, it's easier to the US try to invade China or provoke an attack by putting a suspicious amount of forces around China. Even if China do invade it. They have to do it 80x more to even come closer to the threat the US is.
@@Zam_man The US may if they have planned it in advance be able to destroy the factories before China can take them, but the first thing that China would do in an invasion would be a blockade, and if they were foolish enogh to get withing operating distance the destruction of the US pacific fleet.
In other words US can't airlift anyone away as everyone would be shot down.
The only reason the airlift worked in Berlin was because the US and the Soviets were not at war, the Soviets could have destroyed the airbridge if they wanted war and would from there been able to reach the beach of Normandy with little resistance, but what then?
Similarly, don't assume that the US is in a position of strength here, it is not.
The chips can be eventually substituted and fab'd elsewhere. The bigger concern is allowing the PLA submarines free undetected access to the deep ocean, especially since the PRC's nuclear buildup indicates they're no longer interested in mere "minimal credible deterrence" ☢️
I don't think the clarification is meaningless. There are several possible scenarios of the war. China getting fait accompli before the US reacts, the US being not willing to fight, the US being unable to stop China despite the fighting, a costly war without significant gains, and of course disastrous defeat of China. The clarification makes it a bit more likely that the US will fight, which also means a higher chance of negative results.
China will never have a 100% chance of a clean and cheap win, but there is bound to be a point where the potential gains clearly outweigh the risk and by every ship China builds and every piece of new gear the soldiers get this point is getting closer. The US has to make sure the risk is still high enough. Strengthening the navy, selling weapons to Taiwan, moving more forces into the region, international treaties and higher public commitment all make the risks of initiating the attack higher.
The real risk for china is not the US. Its every other nation in asia. China is diplomatically a pariah. If it demonstrates its willingness to use force for territorial conquest, that us a very clear sign for many of its neighbours that they could be next, abd rest assured, they will strike while china is at its weakest. Embroiled in a difficult amphibious invasion that is.
Russia will fight side by side with China against the US. So, it's highly unlikely the US will go to war with China, cause Russia and even North Korea will get involved. Russia and China are both nuclear powers, it would be a very big mistake for the US to make.
I cannot express how fast seeing you upload put a smile on my face
Thanks for the awesome content and great videos!
Top quality videos. Thanks for the research and being a trusted source.
If I remember properly, China’s strategy is cultural and economic integration in Taiwan, which would cause the island to join them willingly. This attains’s China’s optimal solution without breaking the peaceful status quo. But they simultaneously need to make Taiwan uncomfortable enough to not seek independence. Tricky.
As things are, China’s approach is long term at best. The environment just isn’t right for unification. I think a few things would need to happen for Taiwan to even consider it
1) a major disaster (like an earthquake) or economic depression cripples the Taiwanese economy
2) the current leadership totally botches the response, making problems worse
- this means both businesses and people are upset
3) China’s economy is in really good shape
4) the USA doesn’t help Taiwan recover
With sufficient cultural integration, this may create at least a unification movement within Taiwan. Essentially, things start to suck really badly, the government is making it worse, and the USA plays hands off. That may lead people to China’s open arms, so long as they sign away sovereignty.
But that’s a pretty long shot
Yea, so this has been essentially the Chinese policy for decades, but Xi is rather impatient. He has explicitly come out and stated that if Taiwan doesn't change course towards unification soon, then he is going to consider military options.
According to some projections, this could happen anywhere between 2025 to 2027. If you think about it, that's not long at all from now.
Meanwhile, they are still doing some pretty nefarious things to sway public opinion, all the way to funding pro-China political parties, to paying local gangs to do their bidding, all the way to over-fishing around Taiwan to deny the locals of their ability to fish for food.
@@Pouncer_Fox I think calls of military intervention are a bluff. Taiwan is, quite frankly, very difficult to invade. China would blow a lot of international investments, diplomatic weight, and money vying for an invasion that might not even work. And that’s if the US doesn’t send troops!
I thought Putin wouldn’t invade Ukraine because invading Ukraine would be stupid. Well, I was right about that second bit. Xi Jinping seems more intelligent than Putin. Less of a strongman, more of a politician. And he has the benefit of Putin testing the waters for him. Invading Taiwan would be the stupidest thing the PRC has done since opening up, maybe ever. Mao killing all the sparrows gives strong competition in terms of unforced errors.
And of course Beijing is being very aggressive in their economic/cultural campaign for integration. These things don’t happen naturally. It’s more ethical than invading, but that’s a pretty low bar lol
@@52flyingbicycles For what it's worth, I really do hope you are right.
My basic position is for China not to invade at all. But if they do, I hope Taiwan is doing everything they can to defend themselves.
@@Pouncer_Fox yeah I hope they don’t invade either. The war would be totally senseless and destructive.
If so then their strategy is failing spectacularly.
Thank you Polymatter. Keep up the great work.
After the escalation of the CHIPS act, I had the same question. Thank you for making this video!
Needs to happen, we all know one of the biggest reasons China wants Taiwan is for that super factory for microchips. We need to be able to compete with that going into our tech heavy future
@@WoahJustTakeItEasyMan They wanted Taiwan way before semiconductors were even a thing
@@WoahJustTakeItEasyMan China is not looking for Taiwan for that, microchips are just a business for the defense of Taiwan
China seeks to annex Taiwan out of sheer anger pride, the fact that the communist party has failed to take down the previous government is annoying to guys like Xi Jingping, besides that it's the only thing that prevents China from being a complete maritime power
@@WoahJustTakeItEasyMan Invading to take over chip manufacturing facilities doesn't make much sense. A huge war would have a high likelihood of damaging those facilities beyond repair.
@@aliensinnoh1 it's just one reason of many, but it's absolutely a major asset they want under their control. Of course they also want the dominating force in South China sea, and they want the world to see them as a superpower that can project strength.
But it's interesting how they were fine with the one china policy for decades, and now in our current microchip era... they have declared they plan to "reclaim" taiwan by 2027. Doesn't seem like a coincidence
Seeing a lot of Taiwan videos posted when I'm in Taipei for study ;P Let's hope the status quo is maintained for the sake of all
Journalists: Taiwan Issue?
US: Schrodinger's cat
Journalists: Understandable, have a nice day.
That's called "deliberate strategic ambiguity" kiddos.
Years ago, it would be a choice for the US to defend Taiwan or not. Today, it's a necessity as we rely on Taiwan for our computer chips that power everything we use, not just weapons. We also need to hold Taiwan to secure Japan and South Korea, and to prevent PRC from having easy and secretive access to the Pacific Ocean. So in effect, the US does not have a choice but to prevent Taiwan from falling into PRC's hands.
Did US also prevent Ukraine from Russia to secure NATO members and prevent Russia from having easy and secretive access to Europe?
@l34han we did until we had a mush for brains president and putin sees how weak we are now.
@@valor9996covfefe
@@l34hanThat’s a completely different case. Ukraine doesn’t have access to the ocean easily therefore even if Russia gained complete control of Ukraine they couldn’t move so “secretly” without the EU and US knowing about it. If China gained control of Taiwan they would’ve easy access to international water. Get the big difference?
@@valor9996 Crimea was invaded under Trump lol
Superb, nuanced analysis.
I find this quite an informative video! Thanks for posting this!
I cringe at the number of RUclipsrs who assume that U.S. intelligence hasn't already thought through every possible scenario offered in these admonishing videos. Johnny Harris does the same thing constantly. This is the same U.S. intelligence community that accurately predicted the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February, 2022, not the intelligence community that spectacularly failed to predict the outcome of the Iraq and Afghan wars 20 years ago.
I don't see how you see them so differently. The intelligence community (NSA, CIA, RAND) generally operates outside of political cycles. US intelligence really lacks HUMINT frequently (badly interpreted reports, lack of sources, etc), but satellite imagery and communications interception are absolutely second to none. The people doing strategic planning generally are sound as long as they have good inputs.
This interplay is why a) the US correctly detected troop buildup and action plans for invading Ukraine b) the US missed the part where the Russian soldiers were way too busy selling military hardware for booze to bother doing regular maintenance on their vehicles and c) why the strategic assessment was that Ukraine would get quickly rolled over and that the best action available was to arm a predicted large, bloody insurgency. So the US intelligence was partially right; HOWEVER, that miss on the Russian troop/equipment quality meant that we missed the opportunity to ship them heavy weaponry immediately which would have really put a stop to this invasion quickly.
Okay why don't make a video on exactly what information you have from US intelligence on the subject matter...oh wait you have none except this retarded comment. Thanks bro! So useful! Why don't you go back to playing fortnite and hoping your streaming career will take off.
There's also the political appointees between the IC and President who filtered the information based on 43's interests and preferences, giving a rosy picture leading quickly to "Mission Accomplished".
Being a geopolitical youtuber myself, I admit this was a great video, you are an inspiration! ❤🙏🏼
Yes! Aditya you make great stuff too
@@asr4327polymatter and Aditya rathore r both gems 💎
Why are you admitting it? Plenty of room for quality geopolitical youtubers.
An excellent & objective analysis!!
If America is "overly aggressive" for "pushing for war", then I'd like to know what the Chinese Navy constantly harrassing Taiwan, the Phillipines, South Korea, and Japan is considered.
Undermining US security guarantees
+Bick stick diplomacy.
Fun fact. Taiwan claims South China Sea as well.
The Monroe Doctrine with Chinese characteristics
Defending the sovereignty of the Chinese people of course.
In fact, China's attitude towards reunification never changed. The reason why Taiwan can maintain its current situation is that in 1950, when the People's Liberation Army tried to land on Taiwan to end the war, China and the United States broke out in Korea, and the United States fleet entered the Taiwan Strait. This action made the landing impossible. In theory, the war is not over.In fact, the mainland has also formulated several offensive plans, but they have all stopped because of the United States.This also made China realize that it is impossible to bypass the United States to achieve a unified plan. So in the future, conflicts with the United States may occur before unified action
This is one of the most balanced and fair assessment I’ve heard. In fact most of your videos are.
The fact that this video came out at almost the same time as RLL's and Not what You think's videos, on China and Taiwan.. and all are like ~20 mins long
i know right. It's a good morning for all of us
polymatter really uploaded just in time for my workout routine
I recently learned that my grandfather fought in Kinman in 1949 and 1950, and with that I am currently doing my military service in Taiwan.
感謝您服兵役，台灣會需要你！
If war does happen, don't die for American LGBT terrorist arms dealers. Taiwan should not make the same mistakes as Ukraine.
@@locomotive9000 what? No we’d be dying for our homes. Not everything is about America.
@@vschmerzhow about u guys just united with Mainland China, since u guys r both Chinese and avoid the death and destruction of Asia.
I think Tw authority doesn't appreciate you guys.... i realized that they passed a bill to cut military retiree pension benefit.... perhaps time to wake up....
Great video! Best graphics of any channel.
You're at least half the reason I got a Nebula subscription Evan 👍
Ironically, when he says that foreign policy is being obsessed with the American perspective he continues to ignore the Chinese side. He is completely discounting any domestic Chinese motivation for escalation and exclusively focused on American actions changing the staus quo, it's a very odd take.
Lmao “China’s provocation”. You speak like Taiwan is on the coast of Florida instead of China.
I feel like it could be an odd take because Chinese escalation is the more common discussion topic
@@lu544
Go back to school you fool.
That being said with the release of the new American policy plan document thing, people now have an idea of what the US is setting up for. Thanks to the news cycle having the attention of a toddler it's their main focus atm
@@lu544 it isn't and it never was, according to USA
Always amazing videos…. Thank you for the content
What is amazing about them?
Unfortunately, this video makes the same fundamental mistake that so many others do: saying that Taiwan needs to “declare independence”.
Taiwan does not need to do that. Taiwan (ROC) is already an independent nation. It has never been part of any other nation. Practically everyone in Taiwan supports the status quo, which is independence as the ROC, an independence we already have and our government has openly emphasized numerous times.
…do you know what a real country means? A group of people being together and say they’re a country doesn’t mean they’ve built a country. Two weeks ago Blinken said again, that US does not support Taiwan independence, and they support one-China policy. Taiwan doesn’t dare to declare independence, because the moment they do, the war starts, and they know it.
It implies that we are somehow a part of China(PRC) and we need to leave them when we were never a part of Communist China to begin with
Constitutionally, mainland China is still part of ROC. I think the independence declaration means to change that in constitution.
@@FF-qo6rb yes
不對喔，在中華民國憲法上中國大陸依然屬於中華民國
而且以經濟層面來講，如果我們繼續這個國號，未來共產黨倒台後，我們將會繼承明清以來的龐大外債
我記得光是對美國的債務就超過幾億美元，更別說對其他國家的債務了
台灣是一個歷史不久的國家，我們的外債非常之少，你是否能夠想像當一個小小的島嶼背上十四億人的債務，那會是什麼情況嗎？尤其我們現在少子化
你是一個聰明人，請站在經濟層面上好好為我們的國家思考，我還年輕可不想背上巨額債務😂😂😂
Honestly the way that America has managed to manipulate both sides into peace is a masterclass in high level plays. Respect.
Honestly you are the reason I subscribed to nebula. You are my favourite creator and I really would like to meet you and shake your hand
16:35 as a Taiwanese, I can tell you all that many Taiwanese were outraged when we heard about the laying mines and sea mines option a few years ago. US is basically asking us completely forget about our economy that heavily depends on exporting and transfer ports.
Which country would dare send their cargo ships to our ports to trade with us? US is asking us to starve to death in our so called "porcupine fortress".
So we are asking Taiwan to be more like Switzerland or Finland?
It is entirely possible for a country in a tense region to both fortify itself to the teeth and also retain economic power. And in fact, be filthy rich. Of course, there is a careful balance that has to be balanced IN THE SHORT TERM, but in the long term it can be done.
Keep in mind this is a deterrence strategy, not something intended to be used. Yes, if war happens, then the strategy has already partially failed.
You are not smart to compare Taiwan with Switzerland, Finland or even Ukraine. These countries have NATO backup and can transport resources through land. Taiwan is an island and wouldn't even have enough food if a blockade happens.
Also, it's a lot easiser for Switzerland, Finland, Ukraine to keep war refugees safe by leaving the war zone unlike Taiwan.
Finally, don't forget that there is still an identity crisis going on in Taiwan, most people disagree with CCP but many still recognize their Chinese heritage. This reduces overall combat willingness as well.
In the hypothetical case that China resort to force to unificate twain or wherever they call the process, The taiwanese people think deserve to fight for their indenpence, I suppose the people there is concient it is not possible to win againt china, and a situation where usa and thier alliae send weapon just will increase the destruction.
What alternative do you propose? If china wants to invade it must do so in 15 years or give up any dream of doing so.
So the threat if it exists must mitigated here and now.
I also doubt what will happen if that happen, but the problem u concern may have a solution. did u know they airdropped west Berlin for a year at 1948. anyway depend on yourself better than others@@cdub1059
Taiwanese had been wondering this question for 50 years now
And the answer is always a resounding maybe.
The question is not whether US will defend Taiwan, is whether Japan will.
And if Japan does, US won’t be far behind
Buddy, Japan won't do shit without U.S. consent. After all, it's not Japan, that is entertaining naval bases in Okinawa, Hawaii and San Francisco.
@@nickyliu8762Japan considers this a threat to national security… so yeah they will get involved, shit happens when you attempt to attack another country.
@@zenpai5998
Japanese government does but the Japanese people are deeply pacifist and inward. It will be very difficult to get/force Japanese men to go out in the sea and fight the PLA.
@@VR36030and the Japanese public would be okay Taiwan being invaded? They will be the next one for China Numba 1.
@@bashtosmash03
Japan will just wait for the US to intervene and save them. It's a neutered country. They'll do everything the US asks of them except militarily join the war.
Much of the young men spend all their free time on video games and anime, too scared to even ask a girl out. How many will pick up a gun and fight the PLA a sea away, the largest army in the world?
I took your class on Skillshare….question: how do you make the map graphics in your videos? Thanks!
8:05 love how you make this presentation easy to understand for the layman. Thank you😂
From the national security point of view, Taiwan is key to the US policy of containment. This is why the US is maintaining alliances with S. Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines. We want to contain the PRC's aggression by surrounding it with allies in the pacific, and abandoning Taiwan would basically let hell break lose.
What PRC aggression? I don't see the prc invading iraq or funding terrorism groups in the middle east? How many governments and leaders did the CIA topple and how many did their chinese equivalent did?
@@AlhussainbaLet’s be real here, China is incapable of invading anyone in this day and age, and invasion wouldn’t be beneficial overall, they can use diplomacy to get what they want.
China did try to invade Vietnam but fail, and did reannex Tibet the moment it got the chance.
America does it because it can absolutely get away with it, China doesn’t because they are incapable of withstanding the consequences. If China was capable of doing that they would certainly do what America does, probably worse things too.
@@Alhussainba The US has had its bad deeds, it's undisputable. But if you go to somewhere in East, SE or NE Asia, you will know that people there hate China to some extent for a reason. Not really breaking into your house and trying to kill you, but to the extent of frequently sabotaging your backyard and sometimes claiming it as theirs.
And for a geopolitical point of view, the US stands a similar interest as them, that's all.
I'm sorry about what the US did in the middle east, but I have to say that I don't like whenever people talk about China's agression, someone has to divert the topic pointing out that the US has done worse. Yes, but that doesn't rule out the fact that China IS getting more aggressive against its neighbors. And in those neighbors' perspective, that has to be dealt with.
@@tung-hsinliu861 The US killed more innocent people - alone million civilians in Vietnam - than China will ever do
As a Filipino, I don't like PRChina at all. Beijing funded the Commie NPA here that is still a problem even to this day. They took away what is rightfully tye Philippines under the UNCLOS and shot at out fishermen. No way I am going to accept those dirty Commies as anything close to friends...
As often with videos covering this topic, the subject of Taiwans elections is sorely missing. Something which is extremely important to understand the ebb and flow of Chinas aggressiveness and friendliness towards Taiwan.
Taiwan is currently ruled by the DPP/“the green party”. One that generally moves towards independence (but very slowly). This pushes China towards aggression in an attempt to scare the people of Taiwan from voting for them, and to discourage DPP from moving towards independence.
The problem is that China has painted themselves into a corner. Due in part to their aggression, the KMT party, which has been the one favouring the one china principle (though hypothetically under KMT, even if that’s completely unrealistic at this point), is increasingly becoming unelectable. To young people they’re seen as Chinas puppet. Perhaps righty so.
The only way out of this vicious cycle is for China to change its attitude towards the DPP. Changing their level of aggression or diplomacy towards Taiwan based on the ruling party is simply not viable anymore. They would likely have much more to gain by continuing to strengthen economic ties even during times when DPP is the ruling party. It’d make it easier for KMT to be elected again, and it’d make Taiwan more economically dependent on China.
DPP can’t and won’t declare full independence anyway. China has nothing to lose. Unfortunately the current leader of China is just not very bright. It’s well known that his judgement is extremely clouded by ideology and has surrounded himself with yes men. We just have to hope that the status quo can be maintained until he is gone.
Actually has a misunderstanding. During the last year local election, kmt take the control of 3/4 counties during the election. So actually taiwanese don't elects the kmt in president isn't mainly due to they dislike the perspective of kmt instead of the unpopular presidency canditates from kmt and chaotic presidency compaign
KMT is a dead party. I’m Chinese and I don’t even think KMT will ever again win a presidential election.
投票能獨立那為什麼不讓烏克蘭烏東四州獨立還有蘇格蘭威爾士北愛爾蘭西班牙加泰尼亞美國阿拉斯加獨立？既然投票就能獨立為什麼當年美國會爆發南北戰爭？想要插手中國內戰你們這幫殖民者最好玉石俱焚的思想準備！
From a taiwanese point of view, people in Taiwan care more about domestic policy than foreign policy. So no matter the blue or green party wins, it does not imply whether we want independence or not
@@rainboworiental9521 No, Taiwanese local election was always domestic focus. The presidential election was the opposite.
If you look at first island chain you will get the point
Nice summary of ins and outs of Taiwan Strategic Ambiguity policy related matters and events. Quality work from the guys at Polymatter. 0:09
You really put in a lot of effort on your videos.
Let's just hope that this is question we never have to find out the answer to
Operation Causeway was a US plan to invade Japanese-occupied Taiwan during WW2. They estimated that they would need 600 000 men to beat the small Japanese force and in the end, the plan was scrapped because they thought that it would fail and estimated that it would be easier to just invade the Japanese mainland instead.
Taiwan is a natural fortress. The only way to take it would be to raze it to the ground with air strikes and missiles...but doing so completely and utterly defeats the purpose of conquering Taiwan in the first place so I really don't understand why so many armchair generals on RUclips think that this is even remotely a possibility. Russia also could have already ''won'' against Ukraine by just nuking it into the ground you know...but why would they? You're not gaining anything by ''conquering'' a country that way.
Well nuking would instantly make you the enemy of humanity , even the United states could not save face If they did something remotly close to that, let Alone anyone Else .
Yes It would make the soil unfertile for economic activity but you are missing the """glory""" and gaining political Grace internaly, no matter How destructive the policies in the New acquired territories would be .
However the destructive Nature of It would only be nullified If It were quick and decisive, as the war drags on It becomes increasingly harder to see good in a supposed pyric victory
It isn't really the economic benefits of taking the island that make it enticing. Despite being "communist", its nationalism that keeps the CCP popular and in power. Once and for all ending the Chinese Civil War and having a China unified under one state would massively boost credibility for the CCP, as well as shattering the US strategic position in the region, allowing free access to the Pacific with fewer chokepoints.
Also, this largely discounts the fact that there are still Chinese Nationalist elements in Taiwan. The DPP hasn't washed away the idea that Taiwan is a part of China, especially among older people. The question is whether or not those Chinese nationalists will be able to get over their grudge against the CCP and whether or not they can stay politically relevant as a demographic. If so, then bombing the island to pieces will not be so necessary.
The Ukraine example is not comparable either. Ukrainians and Russians are far more different from one another than mainlanders and Taiwanese. The vast majority of Taiwanese people were moved in by the KMT after they lost hold of the mainland to the CCP. They were not remotely democratic until the 80s, and their critical economic position as the microchip capital of the world didn't arise until around that time too.
So yes, the threat of CCP invasion of Taiwan is real.
"defeats the purpose of conquering" It does not, as in a last resort.
The land is China, if it takes 20years to repopulate is not a big deal, that it is now China for the next 4980 years is more important to PRC.
Correct:
Japan did not “occupied” Taiwan, Japan has full sovereignty over Taiwan since 1895馬關treaty, until Japan gave up sovereignty over Taiwan at 1945. Since then Taiwan legal status is “undecided “, and subsequent ROC occupation government has ruled the island for 70 years without legitimacy and sovereignty over taiwan.
The most important question should be asked is that where do US stand when 23 million innocent people one the island, who has been victim of geographical power conflict for over 400 years and continued to fell under threats of either massive genocide unseen in history or slavery camp that made Xinjiang labor camp seemed naive in the future.
Taiwan strait is not only threshold to peace over entire pacific country union, but also the life line of US strategic interests over half of the globe.
And let’s not forget 60% of world trade cargo go through Taiwan strait and its nearby ocean, once taiwan falls under prey of invasion, regional blockade and subsequent sanctions would easily crash down global economy, with rest of the world facing economic impact unseen in history and a unstoppable autocracy regime who wishes to replace US.
I think they will! They are building capabilities in the region and Japan especially has also been improving its defence industry. Ultimately, no neighbour of China wants to see them gain a foothold in the region due to the nine-dash line and territorial ambitions. As we are currently seeing in Ukraine, a so called big power needs support to keep up momentum because if not well…things go south pretty quickly.
America has hyped these things. China will never attack them with force. Everyone is not like America invading countries for Thier resources
People cheering Russia forgot that Analyst before the war said Russia would Overrun Ukraine in 1 month at best. It's been more than a Year now.
*Battlefield 4 Loading Music Starts Playing*
Love your videos so much PolyMatters!
I have a better question: Will China even attempt an invasion of Taiwan? Looking at the current state of the Russian military, it would not surprise anyone if China were in a similar state.
Although the fact that the US becomes closed or weak is still very big
What's wrong with the Russian military.....I think you need to understand the nuanced reasons why Russia invaded Ukraine and Russia has successfully attained those aims ....Russias intention was never to conquer Ukraine....Russia wanted the Donbas region...they failed to capture Kyiv and force Ukraine into a humiliating treaty but they quickly realised that and pulled away and focused on the donbas..If the Russian military was in such a sorry state as pro western media would have us believe, I don't think they would be supplying aircraft to Mali or sponsoring coups in Sudan or holding off the counter offensive, or even successfully crushing a mutiny within hours....Prigozhin knew what he was facing and he got scared and for someone who fought in Bakhmut ,that's saying something. I'm not pro Russia but the media constantly moves the goalposts when talking about Russias goals in order to create a narrative that the Russians haven't achieved anything...Bakhmut went from a non important city, to a ruin that would be useless, to a city of zero strategic value again ,but Ukrainians are attacking and attacking bakhmut again and if they advance it's referred to as a strategic city but if they are repelled the media says they are feeling for weaknesses at the Russian front ,I mean which is which
They will if they want our island, and if they come, they will fail.
The weird thing about this discussion is how it's laser focused on Beijing and DC. What almost never comes up: what do the Taiwanese want?
That, theoretically, should be what's driving the discussion.
Well, it's not unification with China, and unfortunately they don't have enough guns to voice opinions that people will actually hear out further than that 😅. I think if you did polling, minus the whole "if we say independence, China might invade tomorrow" issue, the Taiwanese would generally prefer to be independent and just live their lives and do their own thing from what I've read of interviews.
They want what the media tells them to want, just like everywhere else.
@@JMurph2015 Just think about it, what would the Taiwanese gain from this? They would suddenly not have a democracy, or free speech, freedom to travel etc.... Right now they live better than any Chinese could ever.
@RohankrishnaB yes because even party members don't have free speech.
I always find myself thinking “What is this world leader doing?! They’ve just made a comedic blunder that has destroyed years of progress!” But when I actually look deeper into these questions I almost always realize that those decisions make a lot of sense given the current circumstances, we always laught at world leaders, but most of these people are actually geniuses in their field.
Not only that, but the leaders are hopefully surrounded by a lot of smart people, who can advise the leaders
It's amazing how nothing was said in over fifteen minutes.
Does a tree falling in the woods make a sound if you're not listening?
Great report
The little things would make a difference here. Stockpiling food and fuel, increasing military conscription, and preparing ship denial defenses are what Taiwan should be focusing on and the US should help them do it.
And if Taiwan declares independence the US should back it. If China is smart their response to this will be economic rather than militaristic. Cutting off trade, denying visas, etc.
And the US will. Although this video does not discuss, there are many other entanglements that make Taiwan's democracy a security must for places far away as Australia.
U.S can't back their independence as PRC only allows countries to choose one, no way U.S would ditch diplomatic ties and embassies in a country that is 1/6th of the planet.
Normally i agree with almost everything on polymatter videos, except in this one. Chinese aggression towards Taiwan is not unique nor it’s only conflict related to territorial disputes. The whole 9 dash line in the South China Sea, the board conflicts with India , and Taiwan show an overall hostile attitude towards its neighbors as a whole and this is why US rhetoric has been much more aggressive. It’s no longer a Taiwan China issue it’s a China south East Asian problem with the potential to put into the first and second island chain.
Do your homework first. Do you even know who drew those lines?! Chiang did that and the US endorsed that! Only after the CCP took over the Mainland, the US' position on the South China Sea began to change. Fun fact: Taiwan did not recognize the arbitration because those lines were drawn by your beloved Chiang Kai-shek😂
"Everyone may be called comrade, but some comrades have the power of life and death over other comrades."~Thomas Sowell
He vote have the same power but that doesn't mean your have the same influence like Bill gates.
Thanks for the very convincing video!In the future coverage of Taiwan, and US/Sino geopolitics, perhaps you can consider including South China Sea?
I really want a full history of the civil war that lead to the split, any and all treaties signed by the two parties, and how each side views those. Is the war over? Is it a ceasefire? Something like Korea? Most videos take one side or the other, mostly based on which side they want to take today, and project those arguments back in time.
Two go to dates: 1894 and the Republic of Formosa - pre 1600 when, according to oral history, Beautiful Sweet Potato Island was populated and ruled by 19 city states.
Nothing has been signed or resolved. The PRC and ROC governments are technically still at war with one another. Yet two way trade is over $400 billion a year.
Well the fact is the ROC and KMT were both founded in China back when Taiwan was part of the Japanese empire. They did not even originally claim Taiwan because Taiwan was Japan's territory. The Chinese civil war began when Taiwan was part of the Japanese empire, and most of it was fought while Taiwan was part of the Japanese empire.
So the Chinese civil war initially had absolutely nothing at all to do with Taiwan.
When the ROC/KMT lost to the communists in China and fled to Taiwan in 1949, they oppressed the Taiwanese for 4 decades as a military dictatorship imposing martial law and the Taiwanese generally preferred Japanese rule over the ROC/KMT dictatorship.
So it is absolutely nothing like Korea, because Taiwan and China are historically separate (only ruled together for 212 years under the Manchurian Qing dynasty) - and the Taiwanese people were actually oppressed by the ROC foreign government in exile. The ROC was a foreign oppressor to the Taiwanese
The ROC in Taiwan should get some credit for becoming democratic in the 1990's, but that was really only because Taiwan-born politicians forced them to end their military dictatorship and democratize. The Taiwanese have since voted the KMT party (originally from China) out of power more often than not, replacing it with the homegrown Taiwanese DPP party (actually founded in Taiwan)
@@hc434 We repeat: According to the best interpretation of oral history, Beautiful Sweet Potato Island, before 1600AD, was governed by 19 city-states who have common ancestors with the King of Tonga. Perhaps the King of Tonga should decide the sovereignty over Beautiful Sweet Potato Island!
@@SewolHoONCE that is one of several options which would make a lot more sense than giving control to the CCP which has never controlled Sweet Potato Island for even 1 nanosecond in history
Yes
I have written this in what feels like a hundred billion comment sections now but I'll say it again here. An invasion of Taiwan is not as easy as a decision being made in Beijing. China can't (successfully) invade Taiwan at this moment and they very very frustratingly know it. Because their navy is lacking the one thing needed more than anything else to carry it out. Troopships. They have troopships but the number they currently have is enough to deliver just enough troops so as to be overwhelmed and crushed very quickly. And they're not likely to have the proper number for some time because they're too busy building aircraft carriers that break very easily and other surface warships that are over matched the second they leave port by the navy of the United States.
And before someone suggests Airborne landings- No. This isn't D-Day in 1944. Any attempted Airborne landing by the PRC would get more than half their drop ships blown out of the sky 4 seconds after breaching Taiwanese airspace. So an invasion is just not in the cards for the PRC anytime soon. Because a failed invasion would be a thousand times more damaging diplomatically than militarily.
The fact that your comment has no likes or replies is a crime.
@@vschmerz Thank You
Maybe...
The real question is could China actually invade Taiwan and successfully take it over? Taiwan is basically a floating fort/aircraft carrier with US aircraft carrier islands all around.
Definitely not
Answer is no.
The amphibious assault to claim the island would be suicide, and even if they manage to fight their way to the island, it’ll be Vietnam 2.0 given its terrain and vast network of underground bases in the mountains.
If the Taiwanese people choose to fight, no nation could occupy this island
Contrary to other respondents, I truly think the answer is yes they can take it over. China can quite feasibly take control of Taiwan, but given the geography it will be with a heavy heavy cost.
The real question isn't IF it can be done, it's questions of how long will it take and how much will it cost that matter in my opinion. The time it takes will determine the international response, and the toll(militarily, economically, etc) will determine when it will be worth it. .
🤣 China can't even handle India
@@prodigalsoniv48The assumption is always of a preliminary amphibious assualt, but what is not explained is why China would ever do this.
Instead of committing to such a costly maneuver, what stops China from simply blockading Taiwan and sinking any U.S. ships that come to relieve it?
In PRC Constitution, Taiwan is Part of China, and PLA will "Defend every inch of China (Taiwan included) from foreign invasion", if US decide to build a military base in Taiwan, even if Taiwanese government accept (even asking US to build it military bases in Taiwan soil), PRC might interpreted as an "Foreign Invasion against Chinese soil"
PRC will say what it wants to say. Why fixating on PRC lolstitution?
This channel will always be here
When I was in the military, we would constantly have to chase China out of the territorial waters of other countries, where they didn't belong.
If you want extremely in-depth academic information regarding what countries like Russia and China are doing; then I highly encourage using these useful resources, which have extensive reports:
- Amnesty International
- Atlantic Council
- Carnegie Endowment
- Cato Institute
- Center for New American Security
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Foundation for Defense of Democracy
- Helsinki Commission
- Heritage Foundation
- Hudson Institute
- Human Rights Watch
- National Endowment for Democracy
- Royal United Services Institute
- Stimpson Center
- Wilson Center
Thank you for your insight :D. Very insightful and considerate to include sources.
Smacks of US imperialism.
Enforcing the UN convention of the Law of the Sea, which the US hasn't signed itself. No hypocrisy here...
What resources would you recommend for in-depth academic information regarding what countries like the USA and the UK are doing?
add Asianometry to understand how UEV is not only the key to the 4th tech revolution, it explains how there is no way around the fact that the USA dep of Energy owns the company that sells the tech licenses( UEV LLC) which sold the license to ASML. #1 no way around this issue, #2 no way a to appease without giving up military compeditiveness #3 china cannot escape middle income without defeating usa hegemony in order to strong arm acess to UEV. point is, guaranteed us china war period. imo this is a secret kept tight to protect the markets.
Bro just spend 15 minutes talking about the ambiguity 😂
The fact that we get free videos on RUclips by PolyMatter is truly a gift. 👍👍👍
May I remind you the forgotten fact that Native Americans population in their motherland, Continent of America before the European Colonizers arrived, was around 15 millions, while European population in their motherland, Continent of Europe was around 25 millions.
Today, Native American population is 15 million, while the European population, in the Continents of America + Europe, is a staggering 'TWO BILLION'! A shockingly sad truth.
In my humble opinion, it's about time to decolonize the Colonized lands, and return North/South America and Australia/New Zealand in Asia-Pacific to rightful owners Native American people and Native Asian-Pacific people.
Remember, notorious global cardinal crimes the Christian West has committed, and benefited a great deals, such as Slavery & Colonialism had long been over, why on earth is notorious Colonization still lingering on, may I ask?
Hell yeah!
A gift?
My jaw dropped as I read Native Americans population in their motherland, Continent of America before the European Colonizers arrived, was around 15 millions, while European population in their motherland, Continent of Europe was around 25 millions.
Today, Native American population is 15 million, while the European population, in the Continents of America + Europe, is a staggering 'TWO BILLION'.. It is a shocking sad truth.
Europe for Native Europeans,
Africa for Native Africans,
America for Native Americans,
Asia-Pacific for Native Asians-Pacific islanders.
@@doubtingthomas9612 The West would commit and practice a great many cardinal sins, many of them knowingly, such as centuries-long global;
- 'Colonization',
- 'Genocide',
- 'Slavery',
- 'Colonialism',
- 'Global Warming', etc which benefits them enormously for centuries worldwide; then they would initiate and take a measure to ban those practices worldwide, and take credit for it.
[Note: Today's global warming is caused in large part by nearly two centuries of excessive coal burning, mainly in the West.]
Off topic: that thumbnail is soooo goood 🎉🎉🎉 it gave me an aesthetic experience 😊😊😊
Bro, is there any business strategy playbook? Could you please make a video about it. Why some business win and fail.
Ambiguity and concessions encouraged Putin to attack Ukraine. If in 2008 Ukraine and Georgia had been given the same defence guarantees Sweden and Finland were when they announced their NATO candidacies, they would still be at peace and intact.
or probably if there wouldn't be nato at al
@@Iv4Bez - nah.
@@Iv4BezIf NATO wouldn’t exist the Baltics would most likely have been returned to Russia a long time ago.
Georgia is very much intact
@@skirata3144 why? There is already small states which are not in nato and Putin doesn't conquer them. It's the existing of nato done 33% in justifying his conflicts.
The US has no legal obligation to defend Taiwan. It does have a _sacred_ duty to defend them, in the sense that with great power must come great responsibility, and if the US is going to become so powerful, then we DO have a duty of care to defend the weak from bullies.
Lmao you say this with zero self awareness, it’s hilarious
Are you going to die or will your son die for Taiwan ?
@@GenocideWesterners My tax money will pay for missiles that will die for Taiwan. This will largely be an air and sea battle, and china doesn't have anything that can get within striking distance of a US asset.
I would die to protect peoples freedoms, its not worth living in a world where dictators get to decide the fate of billions
@@pewpewlazers5702 nigga where you guys at then in Afghanistan or Yemen? What about your partners in SA or Israel occupied Palestine?
This is one of the most based Biden moments in the history of Biden moments
Biden certainly has some moments. Some are good, and some, not so much. At least he's not a serial prevaricator like his predecessor. He only lies some of the time. ;)
5:24 Actually can we turn NATO into this arrangement? Of course I want America to protect Britain, Germany, Italy, and so on. But I feel we'd get more out of NATO if instead of a mutual defensive obligation, we just said "OK, we're the ones spending money, we call the shots. If we don't want to do something, we have the option of helping our ally but zero obligation"
Dropping a couple hundred nukes on the island is far more practical than a costly amphibious invasion.
Brilliantly presented without partisanship and with the right amount of nuisance.
For the most part. It still seems to go easy on China like many of his videos.
@@Homer-OJ-Simpson not really. If you start attacking China, then it would seem partisan.
The Mainland, Taiwan, and US have different lens on this issue. And frankly, the way American frame things often just makes the Mainland and Taiwan more skittish.
He did a great job presenting the mainland and Taiwan perspective, and highlighted how different actions by different actors build on each other.
If you want videos on attacking China and more tough rhetoric, you obviously would look elsewhere because that wasn't the point of the videos.
@@Wha2les " If you start attacking China, then it would seem partisan."
This is what I call the false 'centrist' argument. Would you say the same about Adolph? Would you produce a youtube video detailing what he did with a 'centrist' angle? Would a totally not bias non partisan video of Adolph make both the Jews and Adolph look equal?
I understand what your saying but I disagree. Playing right down the middle makes it look like both sides have equal arguments but that is dangerous and can lead to prop/agandda.
Go further in depth please.
@@Homer-OJ-Simpson we are not talking about the morality of governments. Like the United States is the beacon of virtues? You tell me a government that is the untarnished beacon of virtue, and I'll buy you dinner or something.
We are only talking about the territorial dispute of the unfinished Civil war in China.
You can not blame the Mainland for wanting to complete its territorial claim on Taiwan. It's not like ROC doesn't have claims on Mainland China either. Both claim each other and the South China Sea, and ROC also claimed Mongolia too.
Nor can you attack Taiwan for not wanting to unify with the mainland right now. After all, it is easier to give a society freedoms than to take it away. And Taiwan sees how Hong Kong is changing and they are saying no thanks.
Those are the facts. Human rights record and all your other criticisms on China, US, etc doesn't matter.
We are only in this mess because the CCP in 1949 wasn't able to cross the Taiwan Straits to conquer Taiwan after the KMT fucked up the war on the mainland. And if you look at all the insane logistics of D-Day, you would not expect them to. And that is why this problem exist.
Your Hitler argument is irrelevant... Hitler wanted to take over Europe and disregard other countries sovereignty and eradicate people he didn't like. That is totally different than the China Taiwan issue.
Taiwan was a part of China before 1890s when China lost Taiwan to Japan. Japan returned it after WW2 and was under Chinese territorial sovereignty when the KMT fled there in 1949.
It's like saying if US have a civil war today, and the green party or whatever fled to Hawaii and govern it separately from Washington while maintaining everything else as American, it would be biased/partisan/whatever to say obviously US have an interest in reunifying with Hawaii... When it is perfectly rational.
Taiwan is a de facto independent country and a very important part of island chain of defense. That is for sure.
I think the key for Taiwan to maintaining the status quo is to enhance the forces and become a permanent neutral country as Switzerland does, which can guarantee that Taiwan has the ability to avert the crisis and hurts caused by conflicts between two superpowers.
You just replied this to me too. While that's right, but it probably won't be the case for too long. And I replied there, so I'll wait for a reply again
Can't be neutral if you've still never signed a peace with the ccp
The problem is that Taiwan can't really ever defend itself fully. Neutrality is a death sentence for it's democracy.
Taiwan is part of China.
The old imperials fled there back in the day, in response to the people revolting. Neither these folks or the folks on the mainland thought it was a separate country.
Don't fall for propeganda like this. We're in the middle of doing another Iraq in the Ukraine as it is.
@@Kronos_LordofTitans indeed, they'll be subordinates to either of them
taiwan should put a giant billboard of winnie the pooh on kinmen island, just for the sake of taunting
Great content!
In my opinion America would most likely only defend Taiwan if they can repel initial attacks, long enough for media coverage to make Taiwan the main issue. Without public opinion I believe support will only be in material much like with the Ukrainian conflict.
Though many of the ways America and the NATO block aid Ukraine would not be viable for a nation that may not be able to keep their own waters safe for aid shipments since they have no land routes, air based shipments would be far less efficient and difficult with the likely Chinese air and sea blockade that would make it a provocation for foreign aid to come through Taiwanese air space though I believe America would ignore Chinese threats to foreign shipments.
Taiwan is valuable for their large share in computing production and hard for America to ignore but they most likely wouldn't use direct force to defend Taiwan as this will be an act of war from the Chinese perspective and if China is willing could lead to a full scale war in the Pacific region as a whole.
Americas best advantage is the deterrence they have continually provided by tacitly given via military movements through the Taiwanese waters and joint training
If China could present the US with a fait accompli, then it would.
The fact that it can't is the primary reason it doesn't want to do anything to Taiwan, as a losing war would demolish both pillars of the CCP's legitimacy (nationalism and economic growth.)
Two pillars on a already precarious domino stack
@@jackthorton10 When they are on the edge, they will resort to the most horrific forms of opression to maintain power.
They can justify it with the typical "stability" line, as civil war is probably worse than stable dictatorship.
The more I think about the two Chinas / Taiwan issue, the more I think about how Chiang Kai-Shek, the Kuomintang and Imperial Japan really screwed up back then and indirectly created a Chinese superpower that we are facing today. Had Imperial Japan not invaded China, videos like this wouldn't exist.
I think there are some things in this that are a bit unrealistic, for example the thing about "China's fears". The PRC is already at a maximum level of distrust to anything the US does, what ever the US does, they will view it as some sneaky way of undermining them. The development in the last 10 years is also going in a bad direction with this, the PRC will ALWAYS assume that the US (and all of the west, and others too) are out to get them and to overthrow the communist party even. Things that might seem silly and exaggerated to us, might seem like the most obvious truth in China.
And unlike the time from ~1995 to ~2015, the rhetoric inside the PRC is now set to a very highly agressive level of internal propaganda, and the majority of the population responds well to this. Since they are cut off from foreign information as most people don't use VPNs and feel they don't trust any non-Chinese information anyway, they are not worried, since they are informed that Europe and the US are in a state of internal warfare, no industry, a complete collapse of society and state power, this is what China feeds it's population, they feel VERY superior.
So specially now that China's economy is starting to wobble and certain facts about their own society and economy can't be hidden from the middle class in the big cities any longer, they might do something that would normally be considered reckless, just to keep people placated and satisfied.
If the living standars starts deteriorating ever further for the middle class people in the big cities, something must be done to stop disaffection.
A small war, "We've had enough of the western provocations, our hand has been forced" and invading the islands off the mainland coast in a peaceful unification, where only troublemakers who resist and anti-communists get killed maybe only half of the islands populations. A win for peaceful China against the global American hegemony. This would be something that could keep many people in China satisfied. Specially the younger people of the middle class that have grown up on increasingly jingoistic propaganda it would even increase their happiness even with declining material conditions, food shortages, increasing brownouts, 30% youth unemployment they could be high on war, specially if there are few casualties on their side which is likely if they use all they have on these little islands, they'd be high and ecstatic over their victory even as their living conditions decrease.
It's unclear how long you can be that high on national pride before it wears out and you need a new kick to forget the decreasing living conditions.
And they would for sure be decreasing, because after something like that, western countries would NOT keep their preferential trade deals with China, and might even start with sanctions similar to or even stronger than those on Russia and embargoes on certain goods, this would of course hurt the Western economies too, but not nearly as much as it would hurt China, some big corporations that hadn't foreseen this at all might go under at that point, but many corporation would fairly quickly move their production base to other low cost manufacturing countries instead. This process of moving out production from China and thinking more strategically about dependencies has already started but in a slow way.
我觉得这里面有些东西有点不切实际，比如“美国的恐惧”。美国已经对中国所做的任何事情都处于最大程度的不信任，无论中国做什么，他们都会将其视为某种暗中破坏他们的方式。过去10年的发展也朝着不好的方向发展，美国将始终认为中国想搞垮他们，甚至推翻美国世界霸主，西方领袖的地位。在我们看来有些愚蠢和夸张的事情，在美国可能看起来是最明显的事实。比如间谍气球事件。
Let me guess, you know the situation on the ground is China is deteriorating because of channels like China Uncensored?
"Tomorrow feels like a better time to act than today" -- this is the calculus that's completely changing with China's demographic decline, and as a result of that, China's economy peaking. If there is general unrest within mainland China to the extent that rattles CCP's confidence in their ability to govern, then a Taiwan invasion is inevitable. Unfortunately, unrest occurring during a terminal economic decline is also inevitable.
Great video! Just a heads-up of for future videos: the J in Beijing is really pronounced like a J. It's Bay-Jing, not Bay-Shing.
I have to imagine that supporting Taiwan would be reasonably, if not overwhelming supported in the US if China invaded it.
Intervening in a civil war??
Not likely because many US citizens would be having their money stolen only to be used for war on some archipelago that belongs to China.
Yes, it would be very supported...until the economic ramifications hit. Same way Ukraine was supported...until gas prices started to rise.
@@skp8748this is no longer about a civil war and most Americans don’t see it that way anyways.
@glowyboi7175Lol, you think America going to war to defend a bunch of Asians on the other side of the world would get a lot of public support? You clearly have never even been to the Western hemisphere. Most Americans don’t know what a Taiwan is.
It's pretty easy. As soon as Taiwan isn't economically significant to us, we won't defend them
Might want to Google first island chain. If you think this is about Taiwan's economy then you don't understand the situation.
Absolutely wrong lol, taiwan is the first domino in freaking WW3, everyone in asia knows this .
If taiwan falls and america ignores it means china has been loosened from its chains
China is already misbehaving and everyone is already on edge
Even without china invading them just taiwans fall will mean china controls the south china sea and by default has colonised asia , Japan cannot allow this and will immediately attack to kick the chinese OFF Taiwan
@@beng1540 which is why China needs to bring Taiwan into their fold, that chain needs to be destroyed
This is a superb vlog. Perceptive and thoughtful. Thank you.
In the back of my mind is the fact that Taiwan makes most of the worlds Chips. This must weigh heavily in the scale of things.
I wouldn't call this a vlog at all but otherwise I completely agree.
Yep Taiwan is surviving off of its computer chip industry.
@@LiosProsum Yup and, so is the rest of the world and that is the point.
06:08 - 🤣The pronunciation of the first vowel makes the difference between 'analysts' and 'analists'.
Thank you. It is difficult to come upon even-handed analysis of these sorts of issues these days. Most people do not seek understanding on these matters, so much as trying to persuade the viewer to dislike one side or the other.
Although I hate when people comment before watching the video, I know, without any doubt America will defend Taiwan if attacked. The geological responsibility that America holds with nations other than Taiwan requires maintaining it's sovereignty.
America's interests for maintaining a colonial foothold in Asia greatly outweighs the risks of a third world war. Simple as that.
American will support taiwan independence and fight againts china? Probably yes, but will US will directly Involved with this conflict? Probably not, Remember that both china and US are nuclear nation, there is no history of both nuclear nation are directly attack each other, not even in the cold war, most of war is proxy.
Just think, if US and Nato are not even dare to involved directly on ukraine war, why you still think that US will take direct force againts china?? Remember that war with china are far more costly that war with Russia
@@zack2804 Sure, we did colonize the Philippines a couple centuries ago but we are not imperialist today like China. They still warship Chairman Mao who's killed more people than Ivan the Terrible.
@@zack2804colonial war? What are you smoking???
@@vschmerz What are you smoking? I didn't say anything about a colonial "war".