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Taiwan is part of China. Imagine Azores not being part of Portugal as they are all ethnic Portuguese much like Taiwan are ethnic Han Chinese. I'll never understand the people of Taiwan who'd rather side with a genocidal nation known as the U.S versus their brothers. Just rightist logic I guess, a little bit like Ukraine.
As a Taiwanese, I thank videos like these to raise awareness about our situation. I hope we never go to war. Too easy for people without anything at stake to talk whatever shit they want just to sound smart. It's way more tougher to stay alive and prosperous while surrounded by a hostile "neighbor", along with an ambiguous, opportunist "friend". If you want to see what Taiwanese people are up against, just go through the comment thread under this post. I hope yall have a good day, good life, and never need to face the possibilities of war.
Don’t worry your fine China an amphibious assault in the modern day with cruise missiles and artillery would be suicide also they lack landing craft and if they tried to press their super tankers into service they would be sitting ducks.
There's a well-known saying ' attacking Taiwan is less wiser than buying Taiwan, buying Taiwan is less wiser than deceiving Taiwanese and deceiving Taiwanese is less wiser than intimidating Taiwanese ' that is widely circulates in Chinese communities. It has been regarded as the best guiding principle by Chinese communists that subduing the enemy without real fighting and now they are committed to launching the cognitive battles and develop the nets of the collaborators in Taiwan.
China basically has nothing Taiwan wants in the context of becoming a new sate of China. How do you sell no democracy and censorship along with a fascist king? You don't at best you can try to undermine it but even then.
Propaganda financed by amurikens coming in nicely. Prepare for another war. Here in Europe we're fed with ameriken policy in our soil and I wish we became closer to the Chinese who have a proven record of being honorable.
You think Bidens weakness and compromise will not be exploited? I think pre 2024 election they kick it off... why was purchase of China's 2 first aircraft carriers purchased from Ukraine? Any U.S. involvement? Talking politicians or children of? I would be curious.
I think the only timeline China has is when they are 100% sure that they can invade Taiwan successfully, they will invade; however, the timeline is not 100% set and China definitely does not want to send money and troops to the battlefield. This is the worst investment to China's POV. Peaceful unification with spending the least amount of bucks is what China's aiming for.
They will invade if Biden gets reelected. Biden has no shady deals in Taiwan and America is already exhausted sending aid to Ukraine. Biden has every reason not to protect Taiwan and every other country in the world will not send aid to Taiwan if the US refuses to do so.
@serriajohn Taiwan is a separate country. And liberation would imply they are oppressed. Taiwan is more prosperous than mainland China on virtually every metric. It would be hard to argue they would need liberating. The Uyghurs, the Tibetans and the Hong Kong people on the other hand…
Do you realize a salvo of missiles fired from China can make 2021 supply chain issue a trivial problem compared to chip shortage with Taiwan attacked? China doesn't need to invade and conquer to hold the world hostage.
@@hwong1776For what benefit? The US and Taiwan both have contingency plans to destroy semiconductor plants and make them unusable when China invades. If the Ukraine is anything to go by, the west will simply cut off banking in China like they did with Russia, and what happens next? War is lost.
A small correction about the party control timeline. While the DPP did win the presidential election (for the first time), the Kuomintang still had control over the legislature, heavily limiting the power of the DPP. You can see the difference in 2016 when they won both the presidency and the legislature and started doing actions they have been talking about for a long time.
@@eruno_ So true. DPP kind of ditched Taiwan independence and went to take the ROC flag kind of becoming KMT under Chiang Chin-Kuo's days. Where as KMT essentially devolved into CCP and are helping them spread propaganda everyday.
While I understand what you’re saying - I lived in China from 2004-2006. China in its current and economic and social circumstance, with Xi as it’s leader is not the same as prior administrations. That said, I don’t feel this is imminent - but the likelihood increases with decoupling and deepening social/economic/political troubles/crises.
This is a text-book prisoners' dilemma. Both China and US prefer peace, but they are more afraid of losing a war. Neither can trust the other to not prepare for war. Therefore, both will prepare for war. As both side building up militariy capabilties, hostilities escalate and the prospect of war become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Mutual destruction will be the most likely outcome.
It Is not. China does not want to fight with America. It Is America who wants hegemony and wants to contain China. The situation benifits US weapon industry.
@@AanandBajajBecause the one that initiate the war enjoy the benefit of surprise, which increase its chance of winning. It might also expect the other to back off because the high costs of war.
At what time in history has the US preferred peace? 84 coups in 70 years...that's across approximately 64 countries. Now the game is proxy wars...have some dupe and paid for shill die for you so you gain the financial reward from resources theft and financialisation. Check Ukraine for a great example of this model.
It seems unjust that these events are often presented as isolated incidents without any explanation of their underlying causes. I'm genuinely curious about the motivations behind the positive and negative actions taken during the KMT and DPP timelines. After all, there's almost always a cause driving every effect, and it's unreasonable to make evluations of intent without expanding on the topic even if its brief.
this video seems to imply that whenever Taiwanese vote for DPP they are brought closer to war. That's literally CCP (and to a similar degree KMT) propaganda talking point.
The Capital doesn't like to explain, that's why it spends millions if not billions in keeping it's population below average IQ. The moment we start to rationalize, we'd immediately drop Capitalism for Socialism,
@@danielcaldwell1110agreed. So many people being exploited by corporations and the ultra wealthy, while voting for parties and policies that perpetuate this exploitation because "socialism bad, capitalism good". As if the only two options are extreme economic inequality under capitalism, or fuckin North Korea/China.
I feel like not enough emphasis is put on the abject failure of “one country, two systems” and the breaking of the Sino-British treaty, big reasons why the idea of peaceful unification went out the window. It’s basically impossible for Beijing to convince Taiwan of anything unless the government changes trajectory rapidly.
there was no treaty for the handover. HK has to be return to China because the lease expired. the one country 2 system is a domestic law of China, China as a soverighty country has the right to change it law. in fact the national security law was already written before 1997. China simply choose not to enforce it. yet the western narrative lied to create a false impression that Beijing change it promise to HK. that was never the case, both because China didn't promise anything, it was just recieving a territory at the end of it legal lease, and the creation of these law were all made well before the handover.
Correct mistakes: this is a civil war between Chinese Mainland and Taiwan, China. So there is no claim of invasion. Both sides are separatist regimes, and whoever wins will inherit the Chinese orthodoxy.
@notri... can you explain the failure? as far as I know: because of the violent protest, china introduce security law which is softer than what UK & US have.
@@lagrangewei Why lie about basic things that can be easily Googled? There was of course a treaty outlining the handover and subsequent regime that Hong Kong would enjoy. It was the Sino-British Joint Declaration of 1984. It was ratified by both countries on 27 May 1985 and was registered at the United Nations by both governments on 12 June 1985. And it was in that document that had the PRC promise to uphold and keep Hong Kong Basic Law unchanged for at least 50 years after 1997 and establish the One-China-two-systems policy.
@@serebii666 "Why lie about basic things that can be easily Googled? " Because @lagrangeWEI doesn't use google. When he gets on VPN it's for youtube, not google. Or they are paid to state fake info.
@@josef7731we aren’t “f_cked 💀” there’s a difference in their hardware looking tough vs actually tough. Russia is a great example of that. Plus Chinas navy, Air Force, army, and rocket force, all work individually for some reason and not with each other. Use Ukraine as example, China would probably be worse too as they have no combat experience
Taiwan would have scrubbed “China” from its official name decades ago, except the PRC threatens to invade whenever the Taiwanese move to make the change. You are claiming/implying that “China” being in their official name is an expression of the will of the Taiwanese people. In reality “China” being in their name is actually an expression of the Taiwanese people’s aversion to being the target of violence. It is also an expression of the PRC’s evil. The global community of nations has been far too forgiving of these sorts of PRC transgressions. The PRC has long deserved to be heavily sanctioned.
I always find the comment about how one can't know how good the PRC military is because it hasn't fought a major war since 1979 a bit disingenuous, because it is never applied to everyone else in East or South East Asia, for whom the same claim is also true. The South Korean military hasn't fought in major war since Vietnam. Japan hasn't fought anything since 1945. ROC forces haven't also fought any major engagements since the 1950's, really. And yet their ability to fight is never questioned in the same manner.
US training vs commie man meat wave...all our allies are part of the greatest military doctrine in the world. Ukraine had our help and incorporated our doctrine and training methods after 2014. Equal arms and no nukes...Russia would be part of ukraine rt now.
I teach English to students in China and there's an aspect of this that Evan has mentioned before, but didn't come up in this video and bears repeating: Much of what Xi says about foreign policy is the equivalent of campaigning, if he had to stand for election. He's better at some things than others, but one thing he is absolute Jedi-level master at, is bundling his own agenda with national patriotism. With this in mind, a case could be made that neither the construction of the model in the desert, nor the release of the video showing how it was attacked, were intended for non-domestic consumption.
Taiwan is not a country, Taiwan's real name is Republic of China. Taiwan is only a province of it. Do not fooled by this propaganda.PRC and ROC are at civil war. There is no peace agreement from both side.
This makes a lot of sense. I noticed long ago that the Taiwanese issue is central for the CCP and hence for China as we know it today. I think some party officials are not as willing to reunify with Taiwan by force, but they must constantly bring up the topic to have internal order in China, and they will ultimately need to actually go for it if they feel like they need to.
Seeing how it goes, China has been threatening invasion and throwing red lines all over the place for decades now and they didn't invade. But if the CCP says "We'll never invade we love Taiwan Taiwan is a country :)" that's when people should get real worried
If the people of Taiwan dare to declare an independent country, no one can stop it when it perishes, because it is too close to China and too far away from the United States, so it can be blocked and attacked at will.😂
What red lines? The ones you were running away all over the place from since decades ago? You're the one too scared already to declare independence and cut off.
It is an excellent video on China/Taiwan relationship, better than any other videos on youtube on this topic. But it is sitll missing an important part(likely intentionally): the role of US in this relationship. It is quite clear China does not want a war, Taiwan does not want a war, but anyone with some intelligence can see the US is really wanting a war in the taiwan strait. US will not fight for Taiwan, it will give up Taiwan but will sanction China and isolate it from the world economy, like it did to Russia. it sees this as an opportunity to deter China from overtaking it as the most powerful country. This is the reason you see all those war predictions, they really want it.
Both cases of chinese plan are true. China does not want a war, wars are costly. They'd rather install a puppet regime and integrate them through that process. However if they can't install a puppet regime war is more profittable for them in the long run than waiting them out. Specifically now more than ever since they have lots of problems in their future which will stem mainly from their population collapse. Once they reach that stage (about 2050) they can't take Taiwan. So they have a window of opportunity. Either install a puppet regime, invade them or never be able to capture taiwan. Why would they announce it to people? No amount of stealth technology would prevent adversaries from spotting the collection of forces around taiwan. Russia's attempt to hide it was seen for months called out weeks before. So there is no down side. But why announce it? because it benefits their wolf diplomacy. It makes them look strong to their people. It has the downside of putting a time limit but there is already a ticking bomb (population collapse). Can they win this invasion? Depends on western intervention and how far they want to go but if they have learnt their lessons from russia's failed invasion, it's to level the fuck out of taiwan's each military installation and decision making body before any attempt is launched. Which means yes they can succesfully hit ground but holding is a different topic. It'd be the afghanistan of china though more likely end in success than a literal invasion of afghanistan. This shouldn't even be a possible scenario. Even if this damages their economy, it would damage world economy so much more because of microchips. TSMC produces 70-90% of the high performing chips.
As long as China doesn't invade Taiwan (and that means bloodshed), I say let them try to install a puppet regime that may or may not happen in the next 30 years.
Nobody wants war. But hope is not a strategy. It takes time to prepare and the best prevention is a good defense and the best defense is a good offense. At the same time, I can see China using it to try to distract their population from their domestic and international issues. In 2019, they had 3.7 million tourists and 2023 they had 50,000! China needs to be careful that their saber rattling distraction doesn't paint themselves into a corner where they force themselves to lose their precious and most valuable asset, young sons. Their population will start to be cut in half within 10 years and like Russia, they cannot afford to lose their future. War with Taiwan will put fuel to their economy that is currently on fire like Maui.
Correct mistakes: The civil war between Chinese Mainland and Taiwan, China has not ended, so there is no talk of invasion. Both sides are separatist regimes, and whoever wins will inherit the Chinese orthodoxy. For national unity, chips are of no value.
Is there some type of state department grant to produce content like this, or is this just part of the propaganda wing of the US government passing itself off as if it were independent creators? Honestly, hard to say. The intense level of anti-china propaganda lately has been insane, and it's rapidly racing towards cold-war level anti-soviet propaganda..
Yeah and imo, I say only polymatters Videos about China are the most informative and non biased ones, real life lore is awesome but his videos about China aren't really correctly informative.
Exactly as we've been seeing constant videos and news about Russia invading Ukraine... and nobody believed that... and it was to no end, and it was always next week ... until it actually happened, and then none of us was laughting anymore. Do not underestimate irrational dictatorships.
One issue tho is that military hardware and ammunition don't have an infinite shelf-life. If China is going to commit to such high levels of war material production they have to have a plan to use it, if not for just the sake of internal or regional defense which I find to be unlikely. Power projection on a worldwide level is not a cheap thing to undertake, neither is expending all branches of a countries armed forces simultaneously while investing in a space program, stealth fighter programs, propulsion research and drone warfare. One might say it's to increase foreign export sales but we all know the Chinese don't have a lot of customers lining up to buy their stuff. One might also point out that China is pumping out unproven military hardware at an unsustainable rate, and without a solid plan to put any of it to real-world use would be a very bad investment. Yes, large militaries make a country look strong. It also makes a huge difference when it comes to who the military higher-ups want to be in charge of their nations economy and foreign policy. However no nation can print money from nothing, and no nation...not even one as dishonest towards outsiders as China...can just keep producing more and more military hardware that then ends up largely out of commission from a focus on production over maintainence because numbers are what gets the bonuses and praise. It's something that played a large role in the eventual downfall of the soviet union and if China doesn't backtrack it to some degree they're going to be in a similar boat sooner or later...assuming they don't invade Taiwan before all those shiny new tanks and destroyers rust away 1st.
tl;dr you're just crying that the country has anything at all since Mao won against you. Smaller economies still exist without collapsing despite making less stuff.
Well let's just hope that the failure of the Ukraine War has put off China from invading Taiwan, especially considering that amphibious landings are one of the most difficult operations to execute.
Especially when you consider that it is highly likely that the US will get directly involved due to strategic interests. (microchips) The fact that the US is persuing a generational leap in both ground and ship based fighters, and deploying a palletised system for deploying ASMs in bulk should tell you what our projected level of involvement will be.
@@bohba13 Lol I suppose that the Taiwanese threat to destroy their own microchip facilities in invasion is not only a deterrent against China but also a chain to pull in the US as well haha
@@MemoryofSouthVietnam it's a given that if a war starts those factories are basically done. Those things are not coming out of the war in one piece not matter who wins.
Great video but I really wish you'd do more of a conclusion rather than just go straight into the nebula promo but I get why you do it. Videos always feel like they end so abruptly, I get whiplash
I think this is actually the best part of this channel, presenting numbers quote and facts, doing less comentary. At the end of each video you will have a conclusion yourself.
Correct mistakes: The civil war between Chinese Mainland and Taiwan, China has not ended, so there is no talk of invasion. Both sides are separatist regimes, and whoever wins will inherit the Chinese orthodoxy. For national unity, chips are of no value.
I am Taiwanese. The China air fighter invade the border of Taiwan everyday.Thepurpose of China's invasion of Taiwan is to build Taiwan into a military base for future wars against Japan and the United States, and to serve as a springboard for China to break through the first island chain defense line. Taiwan and Japan are strategically located as a community with a shared future. It is necessary for the two countries to cooperate in the military and establish a military alliance.
The ending of the semiconductor monoploy while great news for so many of us, is a serious risk for Taiwan as the huge economic motiive to preserve itself with other’s help will be gone. Hopefully morals, the statragitic limiting of the CCP, and the rise of economic ties in other areas will be enough to maintain and grow Taiwan’s ties with others.
Not all investment is going outside Taiwan. The bulk of TSMC investment is still in Taiwan and TSMC is by far the leading edge manufacturer of semiconductor, especially high end ones (like 90% of the market). What TSMC is building in Arizona will manufacture 3nm which is currently the bleeding edge. But it is a factory being built to manufacture today's top of the line chips, so it ain't gonna be bleeding edge when it comes online in like 2024. Factories in Taiwan are slated for 1nm. In total, TSMC makes about 2.7 million wafers per month (wafers which then go on to be "cut" into smaller parts that then are the heart of the product). Arizona will make about 100k of that. Tho that 2.7 million likely does include a lot of the lower end chips as well, the us production is still not mammoth.
The most advanced ones will still be made in Taiwan. Korea is closest to catching up there but still need to figure how to mass produce them at Taiwan’s capacity. On Arizona, Americans need to realize the amount of Taiwanese experts they need just to build, maintain, and operate the factory because America outsourced all that know-how and experience to Asia decades ago. Then we talk about work ethic and culture, it’s a huge gap before you’ll be able to supersede Taiwan in mass production. You don’t just work a comfy 9-5 and sitting there watching the ASML machine do everything.
I do feel like Americans are a little bit too certain about war after Ukraine. It’s important to understand war would be economically disastrous for China. Not to say it’s impossible, but as of now China can’t win easily and war would be against china’s interests.
China's extended covid lockdowns were also economically disastrous. It's very unwise to make predictions based on rational behavior out of a government who unanimously broke tradition and reelected xi for an unprecedented third term. Unanimous being the key word here.
By many accounts, not even the Russian military believed they were invading Ukraine - they assumed they were gathering as a show of force, and a reminder, not a full invasion. Then the orders came down to move in, and things quickly fell apart. With everyone taken so far by surprise, it's no wonder everyone's wondering if Xi is going to make a similarly unexpected - and inadvisable - decision.
China has avoided taking a stand on invading Taiwan because they've always believed that Taiwan would eventually reunify with China. That's why they were happy when the One-China policy was agreed to. However, as Taiwan loses its connection with mainland China, and younger people become more and more disillusioned with the CCP, the chances of peaceful reunification go down every year. China's actions in Hong Kong were probably the final straw. Taiwan has a presidential election in January 2024, and if you look at opinion polls, the KMT is in 3rd place behind the DPP (who are in first) and a new party called the TPP, pushing for a centrist alternative. Based on all that, it's clear that the people of Taiwan have little interest in peaceful reunification anytime soon, so Xi is going to have to face facts that his propaganda is wrong. Combined with the fact that China's military is stronger than America's in certain ways, they could very well invade, probably not in 2024 or 2027, but almost certainly by 2049.
fun fact that most taiwanese are unaware that Tsai supported and donated money to the HK protest as she was on the blink of losing her re-election. The fact that the riot got out of hands in HK got her a huge swings of votes. dont believe me? look at the numbers during the 2020 election, Han guo yu was at least 10% ahead of her
@@ftu2021 The same cannot be said for the 2022 local elections, where DPP lost to KMT and TPP in mayoral and magisterial positions, which made Tsai resign as party head. I don't know if her party could win 2024 presidential election. I overheard from my dad who sometimes watch Taiwan news channels that DPP has been poorly handling the economy and domestic issues like rising costs of living.
@@ftu2021 I've seen the opinion polls, Han was beating Tsai by a huge margin as late as early 2019, and the KMT won a massive victory in the 2018 local elections. I don't know how I feel about Tsai donating to the Hong Kong protests, but if she did, she might've done an amazing political move, as China's crackdown means the DPP is unlikely to lose a presidential election anytime soon.
14:15 Well, I don't know about that. I mean, what's prohibiting from each and any general then to claim war is imminent each month of each year till 2049 and beyond? I mean, since you can't "rule out" ANY day of the year China might invade, the logical conclusion of this line of thought is that it would be a real scandal every time any day was omitted. If 2023 is seen as "realistic" - we're already more then half passed this - then any other date could be seen as realistic as well. So you could come up with ANY date at all, and it would always be a real scandal if you would not say it's possible? Makes no sense. Then NO predictions for a given year are necessary anymore, just say "any date is possible" and you'll always be right without needing another headline.
The problem I see that is holding China back is three fold: 1. They lack the transports necessary to attempt this invasion, it's why the action has been referred to as the "Million Man Swim". As it stands most of China's fleet is short range ships that lack the ferrying capacity to actually conduct this invasion. They simply can't get enough soldiers across the water to get there. 2. A significant amount of China's oil comes via a single pipe in the Indian Ocean with the rest being shipped through a single waterway. It would take a minute fraction of the US navy to camp out over that pipe or restrict access through the straight to China to cut off the majority of China's oil. 3. Ukraine. The successful defense of Ukraine coupled with the widescale sanctions & boycotts have demonstrated to China that they are not guaranteed victory and the price of the effort will likely cripple them. Russia can weather the storm to an extent but China's economy is far more reliant on the international market. They would essentially doom themselves. Could they still invade? Sure. Will it be successful? Probably not. But at least in this way we can see the few things that are likely holding China back.
What's holding china back is why invading Taiwan just to destroy it. Taiwan doesn't hold resources like Ukraine do, they don't even have fresh water. The chips factory doesn't do any good if you destroy them. And the resources spend on war can easily create their own chips. What china wants to do is unify with taiwan peacefully, may take centuries if it has to. This won't work if Taiwan claim indepdent. So everyone was happy with the status quo until American gets invovled.
Taiwan is not a country, Taiwan's real name is Republic of China. Taiwan is only a province of it. Do not fooled by this propaganda.PRC and ROC are at civil war. There is no peace agreement from both side.
A fourth point to be added, is China is living its most prosperous moment in history, since the republic was founded. It will not make sense to attempt such an adventure that might lead them to disaster, as you mentioned. They are expected to become the world's number 1 economy by the coming decade. They will be stronger and more powerful than the US. So they want to wait until that day to attempt any military operation in Taiwan. But of course the US knowing this will try to provoke the Chinese into an attack on Taiwan right now, so the US can put all of its allies against China, just like they are doing to Russia because it would be perfect for the US to weaken China militarily and economically at present time.
@@User-jr7vf I agree somewhat in that China has 0 motivations to risk their highly successful moment on an attempted invasion of Taiwan but there are a wide range of problems facing China that will likely hold it back from becoming the leading global economy, political maneuvering by the west aside. China would still need to build up a massive quantity of ships, infrastructure, secure an oil source that doesn't require shipping to the country, while dealing with the myriad of growing issues it has. It just doesn't seem realistic that the time will ever line up that China will be in a "good" position to invade.
As a Chinese mainlander, I hope there’ll be no war between the two sides. However, sometimes certain things are very difficult to prevent and can be quite inevitable.
It's easy to avoid. All the barbarians in Beijing need to do is accept that people in a country that owes them nothing don't want anything to do with them.
@@willyang4487 you'd be surprised at how little effort it takes to do nothing. And that's all the barbarians in Beijing need to do to avoid a war. Nothing.
@@bobs_toys We'll unify soon or later. Anglo schizos can complain and speculate all you want, but unity is inevitable. Violence is not necessary, the status quo will be preserved until they're fully integrated economy and then the walls come down. Taiwanese aren't stupid and will concede once the benefits outweigh the negatives.. This is ultimately just a political dispute. It's not a race war like how the Anglos despise the Chinese.
@@bobs_toys With the mainland Chinese doing nothing, I see the US increasing its influence and presence in Taiwan more and more, to the point that it becomes a real threat to China's security and stability. In other words, we will have a Russia-Ukraine 2.0.
I think Chinese aggression against Taiwan is inevitable. They have been wanting to take Taiwan for decades, and the political debt has been piling up. Each generation of China's politicians have been increasingly raised with the thought that Taiwan must be conquered, and so they will feel obligated to make it so. What once was meant to distract from domestic issues, is becoming a military mandate.
US, UK, Russia promise China that Taiwan will belong to them after WWII. the West need to honor it committment and comply with the UN resolution on "one china".
Taiwan is not a country, Taiwan's real name is Republic of China. Taiwan is only a province of it. Do not fooled by this propaganda.PRC and ROC are at civil war. There is no peace agreement from both side.
1:38 , as soon as hear the word "invasion" and "neighbor", I know you either did not study the history of the dispute over Taiwan or you are deliberately misleading the audience to believe Taiwan is a different country from China. Taiwan is a China's government in exile, technically Taiwan is China! There is a Chinese civil war that has not officially ended yet, no matter what happens next between the mainland and Taiwan is a Chinese internal affair. Please leave it to the Chinese people to settle it.
I think they should ask the people if they won’t to unify or not and accept the outcome. But I agree this is a China affair and no one has the right to interfere.
The biggest gap between China and the United States is the submarine, followed by aircraft carriers, destroyers such as combat ships, but the gap is the smallest, and even in the technical level is still ahead.
"敢于斗争" means "dare to fight" in English. "斗争" implies fighting or conflict. A term like "奋斗" is more commonly used for "struggle" in the sense of overcoming adversity or some internal force; the most (in)famous example being the Chinese translation of "Mein Kampf."
Ambiguity has to be exploited either way. More weapons to Taiwan, more focus on the South China Sea. It works in reverse too, and is just as required. Then again everyone thought Russia invading Ukraine would never happen and was crazy... except for the USA which go it right.
Considering the US has got plenty wrong before, and is the other major party held responsible for the war in Ukraine in the first place, saying they 'got it right' is disingenuous. Like an insider trader getting the movement of a particular stock right.
@@ArawnOfAnnwn saying "America bad" is far easier than actually thinking about it isn't it? Because that and actual research would reveal that this is not about America, it's about Russia and it desperately trying to prove itself as still a great power that rightfully controls eastern europe, according to their official channels they show actual Russians, instead of the ones for retarded or fascist westerners
From 1958 to 1979, the CCP attacked the small island of Taiwan - Kinmen. Kinmen is 6 kilometers away from China, while Taiwan is 277 kilometers away from Kinmen. The most intense battle was between August 23 and October 5, 1958. The ground artillery fired 100,000 to 200,000 rounds for the first time, and then fired 1,000 rounds every day. Then it was not until January 1, 1979, the day of the establishment of diplomatic relations with the United States, that the shelling was stopped.
@@JohnDorian-j7x in geopoliticis, the term "deterrence" is usually used by the more vulnerable party to... "deter" conflict initiation from the dominant party. In this case, the dominant party is citing "deterrence" to "deter" the vulnerable party from... ???
@@ulamss5 I don't agree with "usually used by the more vulnerable party" part of your definition of deterrence. For example, the US's number one name in the game for the past half century has been "deterrence". Every nation can practice deterrence no matter how small or how large (in terms of power disparity). Or do you mean the irony of it? ie, the fact that a small nation is standing up to a big nation?
The current concern is that China might launch missile strikes against Taiwan and the US at any moment, without necessarily invading. That's why Taiwan views any flight incursion into its Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) as a potential attack. I'm not convinced that American or Taiwanese forces, along with their allies, are always fully combat-ready. After an initial strike, an aerial campaign might ensue, and after several months, a land invasion of Taiwan could take place. No one anticipated Hitler's invasion of Poland. Everyone was aware of the war preparations, but the specifics of when and how were uncertain. The same could be true for China. They might inflict significant losses and establish an aerial denial zone, preventing US forces from approaching. I can't predict the outcome of a blitzkrieg-like scenario. However, what I do believe is that if it were a prolonged war, the US and Taiwan would ultimately prevail, much like the Allies did in 1945.
Taiwan has never been recognized as a country by the international community. In fact, decades ago, it was still competing with the mainland for the title of legitimate China. Its full name is ROC (Republic Of China) and Taiwan is just the name of an island. I know that many people here like to compare it with Ukraine, but obviously, these are two completely different situations.
@@PlautusScipio it cant really be recognised as an independent country. If it is, then which is the real China? Taiwan lays claim to the chinese mainland, and China lays claim to the island of Taiwan. To recognise both is to recognise neither.
@@PlautusScipio Yeah, purely for practical and political reasons. They cant remain the worlds darling if its revealed that their ruling party was a dictatorship till the 90s and that they have their own, more expansive 9 dash line. Taiwan isnt who you think they are. America is the best publicity agent in the world, just look at how clean they made Israel look for decades.
@@PlautusScipio If countries were distinguished by their intentions and purposes, there would not be only more than 200 countries in the world, nor would there be such a stable international situation.
Even though "90% of the world's largest ships transit through the Taiwan Strait" the alternative route does not necessarily involve taking the longer route through Indonesia. After all, having passed through the true chokepoint of the Strait of Malacca, northbound ships could sail to the east of Taiwan. Or are you assuming that closing the Taiwan Strait would necessarily involve blockade of the Strait of Malacca?
China must think twice the consequences of blockade Taiwan Strait. If no Middle East crude oil can reach the shore of China, what would be the outcome?
@@johnyan836 Yup. That's why they are stockpiling Russian oil. The Hudson Institute recently uploaded a video called "China Prepares for War: A Timeline". War would be folly, but we should never underestimate what authoritarians will attempt in order to cling to undeserved power.
@@johnyan836 There are overland routes. China isn't an island, Taiwan is. And btw, so is Japan...Also closing the Strait of Malacca necessarily involves either getting the approval of half a dozen countries in the region - who would be voting against their own interests as it would hurt their economies more - or forcing them to comply, thereby involving half a dozen neutral countries in your war. Also looks incredibly cowardly to do that just to avoid entering the lion's den and fighting them yourself.
Thanks for making these videos rising the problems we're facing daily. As a citizen currently in my 20s, the era of rapidly changing "friendliness" of PRC consists almost whole of my life. I never thought of anyone out of Taiwan could fully understand the fear and other matters we're up against, since its really a special situation; but if you are in those parts undergoing similar conflicts, I wish for your best luck, and if you are reading this, also thanks for giving a little care. Why not go check out comments and replies of this video's comment section? Maybe these Simplified Chinese comments cant let you have a grasp of how we are viewed as "traitors", "dogs", and other nasty things, simply due to the fact that we THINK we're an independent country. But after all you can't really blame them, when thats whats their education taught them, also what there whole society have in mind.
This is about China vs the US more than it is China vs Taiwan. Taiwan just so happens to be caught in the crossfire of this crippling China and U.S. relationship. TSMC, the Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturer is incredibly important to the U.S. It supplies chips to the most important American tech giants, AMD, Apple, Nvidia, and Qualcomm. There's a reason why they sanctioned Huawei to protect American companies at home, and now they desperately need TSMC in order to control the semi-conductor industry and it benefits the American tech giants. The U.S. is afraid of global competition because the U.S. won't be the #1 world superpower if they fall behind other nations whether it's technology, space or military. A war between China and Taiwan is a very unpopular opinion for most Chinese and Taiwanese citizens, it will end in disaster for both countries, similar to Ukraine vs Russia and the Israel-Hamas war. Unfortunately, the U.S. is heavily pushing this China vs Taiwan war agenda/propaganda because it will help the U.S. stay as the #1 world superpower once China crumbles financially from the war. And to the white-washed Taiwanese, no the U.S. does not care about your people, most Americans see Asians as Asians and not Taiwanese. The U.S. government only cares about what's beneficial to them back in America. Remember, the U.S. is the current world police and it wants to stay that way. U.S. will actually profit from this war as they will sell military equipment and personnel to Taiwan. U.S. will have complete domination over the entire world once China crumbles.
1. In 1894, Japan invaded China and Korea, the Qing govt of China was defeated and signed the [Treaty of Shimonoseki] to cede Taiwan Island to Japan. 2. During the WW2, at the Cairo Conference held in 1943, China requested the transfer of Taiwan's sovereignty back to China after the war. This content was included in the [Cairo Declaration] and later reiterated in the [Potsdam Proclamation] that it should be implemented. 3. On 14 Aug & 2 Sept 1945, the Emperor and govt of Japan issued the [End War Edict] and [Japanese Instrument of Surrender] respectively, Japan surrendered and accepted the [Potsdam Proclamation]. The Japanese troops in Taiwan surrendered to KMT General Chiang Kai-Shek, Taiwan re-entered the territory of the Republic of China (ROC). 4. Soon after that China civil war broke out between KMT and CPC, the KMT was defeated and fled to Taiwan. However, due to US's intervention, the CPC without a strong navy at that time has no ability to unify Taiwan. The CPC then established the People's Republic of China (PRC) in 1949. Since then, both sides constitutionally claimed itself being the legitimate government of China, which consisted of Mainland China+Taiwan Island in its entirety. 5. In 1971, UN Resolution No. 2758 ruled that the PRC had obtained the representation rights and all legal rights originally owned by the ROC in the UN. That means the PRC is China's only legal govt under international law, and today the PRC also become China's only legal govt recognized by 180 countries around the world, including the USA. "The USA recognizes the Government of the PRC as the sole legal Government of China. Within this context, the people of the USA will maintain cultural, commercial, and other unofficial relations with the people of Taiwan." Joint Cummunique on the Establishment of Diplomatic relations between the PRC and the USA (16th December 1978). As such, the ROC has no more embassy in America, UK, France, Japan, Germany, Italy, etc, and they were replaced by PRC embassies in these countries. 6. Therefore, according to international laws, international diplomatic reality, and the wishes of the overwhelming majority of the combined 1.4 billion people from both sides, the PRC has every rights to protect its sovereign integrity. To demonstrate how legitimate China’s claim of sovereignty in Taiwan, think about this: It’s more legitimate than the three Baltic countries’ territorial claims: Most of the republics of the former Soviet Union signed the Alma-Ata Declaration, which clarified the boundaries of the signatory countries and thus effective under international law. The three Baltic states Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania did not sign the Almaty Declaration. Moreover, they declared their independence before the disintegration of the Soviet Union, and they did not sign confirmation documents with the Soviet Union at that time. If no one disputes the territorial claims of the Baltic states, why there’re disputes in China’s rights over Taiwan? 7. Today, the government in Taiwan is no more than remnants of China’s former government. There’s zero difference if in 1949 the remnants had fled for Jiangxi, Jiangsu or Hunan, instead of Taiwan. They are all a part of China in exactly the same way. They did not automatically become another country just because the remnants fled there. If some remnants of the China former government had fled to the United States, would the United States have become the ROC as well? 8. Taiwan has never been an independent country by itself, NEVER, in any history records. Yes, Taiwanese have their own passports, but Hong Kong and Macao people have their own passports too, but they are still a part of China. If Catalonians decides to print their own passports today, that doesn’t mean Catalonia is an independent country tomorrow. 9. If Taiwan decides to go for independence, just like Catalonia or Scotland is trying to, it’s all China’s domestic matter. It has nothing to do with other countries. But the US has been sending billions worth of arm weapons to Taiwan. In 1962, the US sent missiles to Turkey & Italy, and in response, the USSR sent missiles to Cuba, and the Cuban Missile Crisis broke out. World Superpowers never allowed another country sending strategic arm weapons CLOSE to their borders, let alone WITHIN its regions like the US is doing to Taiwan which is WITHIN China. The PRC has been EXTREMELY patient with Taiwan govt: As long as Taiwan doesn’t declare independence, Mainland China has been at peace with it. 10. The PRC makes no secret of the desire for an eventual reunification, but it prefers to do it in a peaceful way. In China’s school text books, Taiwanese are called “compatriots”. Mainland China is Taiwan’s biggest importer of Taiwanese products. There are hundreds of thousands of Taiwanese working in Mainland China. Mainland China has been working on reunification with Taiwan through trades, notably the “Three Direct Links” initiatives. At one stage, under Taiwan leader Ma Ying-Jeou, Mainland and Taiwan were very close. The US noticed that trend and covertly supported the DPP to gain power. The US also orchestrated the Sunflower Student Movement in 2014, to sabotage the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement (CSSTA). Since The US puppet Tsai Ying-Wen came into office, separatism has been the main theme. It’s an open secret that Taiwan is America’s trump card over China when China catches up to the US’ economy, just like how America knocked Japan into 3 decades of stagnancy (Plaza Accord agreements) after Japan’s economy was catching up fast with America. The Anglo-America Empire has been using the “divide-and-conquer” tactics throughout histories. For example, Iran-Iraq, Iran-Saudi, Serbia-Kosovo, Russia-Ukraine, Europe-Russia, India-China, Mainland China-Taiwan, India-Pakistan, Gaddafi-NTC, Maduro-Guaido, Putin-Navalny, Al Assad-The Kurds, Al Bashir-South Sudan and many more. The DPP banned media in Taiwan which favor reunification, and created propagandas against Mainland China so that the young Taiwanese dislike Mainland China. Pelosi visited Taiwan in Aug 2022 against sternest warning from Beijing, to provoke a Chinese civil war, after which Mainland China surrounded Taiwan with battleships. In Apr 2023, McCathy’s acceptance of Tsai’s official visit to the USA, further escalated tension across the straights. 11. The US forced Taiwan to setup a TSMC plant in Arizona, scheduled to complete by 2024. This effectively robbed the crown jewel of Taiwan’s economy, which contributes to over 30% of Taiwan’s GDP. After the completion of the TSMC plant in Arizona, the US could even sabotage TSMC factories in Taiwan, to control world’s chip production, just like how the US sabotaged Nord Stream pipelines to control energy supply to Europe. After which, Taiwan will be even more dependent on agricultural export to China. The US is not helping Taiwan, its only interests are: Selling weapons to Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Australia and getting them to fight a proxy war against China in Taiwan, just like how it’s using EU countries to fight a proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. And to steal TSMC over to the US before Taiwan is destroyed.
Crazy talk. Taiwan is not and has never been part of the PRC. They have no right to invade another foreign country. The PRC might be recognized as the legal government of China, but Taiwan isn't part of the PRC. PRC is the legitimate government of China, while ROC is the legitimate government of Taiwan. This is the status quo and the reality, regardless of the propaganda spread by Xi and his CPC goons, or what anyone else says or think. The people of Taiwan live completely free and separate from the PRC.
The passports of Hong Kong and Macau say the People’s Republic of China. Have you seen the words People’s Republic of China written on the passports of Taiwan?😂😂 Taiwan's passport says TAIWAN😊
In addition, you are talking nonsense. TSMC accounts for 7.3% of Taiwan's GDP. TSMC has a total of more than 30 factories, and Arizona only accounts for one of them! And in the future, its output will only account for less than 5% In addition, the United States is building a factory at the same time! There are 3 to 4 more advanced factories in Taiwan that are about to be completed
You should have also mentioned about chinese conflict with India and its willingness to allow bloodshed at Galwan after 40 years of peace. CCP is a dangerous force and cannot be taken lightly keep in mind the same party killed 35 million people under Mao for its own glory.
Were China rational, they would take Afghanistan first. It has a major fraction of the world's reserves of lithium, which Chinese industry needs. There is no other serious military competitor interested in Afghanistan any more. The public can therefore simply be put in camps like the Xinjiang and Tibetan populations already have been - America and Russia did not do this, but it is a strategy that China is already familiar and comfortable with. Taiwan by contrast is a tiny territory not even connected with China. It is plagued by typhoons and earthquakes, and possesses no natural nor man-made resources that China doesn't already have a lot of. What does China gain if they take Taiwan? Only a strategic military position holding the fulcrum of the first West Pacific island chain, and destruction of the global semiconductor supply chain, which is nearly the only major supply chain sector in the world economy that China does not yet dominate. The only explanation for why Chinese leaders claim to care so much about Taiwan, is to hurt other countries and to get revenge on the Taiwan population. The revenge is from being embarassed all these years that a small slice of Chinese population has been able to live so much better than them simply by not sharing China's racist and totalitarian ideology. Have you ever had someone who is offended by your mere existence, who demands you dead or enslaved and will accept no coexistence, and where there is nothing you can do to make them calm down? That is Taiwan's predicament.
We should also be wary of India's ambition to annex Bhutan and Nepal, because they have already annexed Sikkim and now control parts of Bhutan and Nepal.
@@ramk2443ur whole India is protected by gorkhas since it's birth in 1947 and u think u can invade Nepal?Without gorkhas in Frontline there would be no arunanchal and ladakhand Kashmir occupied by India.Also if ur army can u can try to invade Nepal.We like to see ur missiles and tanks .Nepal fought off east India company the superpower of it's time what is India??u think since u r nuclear u can invade and capture Nepal,u can't bcoz u don't know the weight of our blood
Double standard that anything China does is not a threat, and they're not responsible for escalation. But everything anyone else does is a threat and escalation is totally the other people's fault. "Doing more harm than good."
This is a very interesting and thought-provoking video about the possible scenarios of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. I appreciate the analysis and insights from the experts and commentators, as well as the historical and geopolitical context provided by the video. I think this is a very important and complex issue that affects not only the people of Taiwan and China, but also the regional and global stability and security. I hope that the tensions can be resolved peacefully and diplomatically, and that the rights and interests of all parties can be respected and protected. I also hope that the international community can play a constructive role in supporting dialogue and cooperation, and preventing conflict and violence. Thank you for making this video and sharing it with us. 👍🏻😊
Whatever logic you want to argue on how difficult it is to invade Taiwan, one thing is true. Any country can only wage a war when they have more young people in the age group 15-35. If a country wages a war when they don't have demographics on their side then that country will die within 100 years provided there is no immigration. Ask any German who lived through 1960's and 1970's how many young men they saw on streets, they will tell you. Russia still has not recovered from WW2 with more women in their country than men. With Ukraine war it is only going to get worse. With China their window of opportunity is open until 2030. They already have population decline and it is only going to get worse in the coming years. And Xi Jinping is in a hurry as he knows he can't sit on the throne forever and keep saying same old phrase of "peaceful reunification" at every party Congress. I don't think he will easily get a 4th term without something moving in the direction of taking over Taiwan. This decade didn't start off well for the world with COVID and I am damn sure China will not allow it to end without an attempt at taking over Taiwan.
Americans, who know little about Taiwan, seem to forget that a Declaration of Independence requires a constitutional amendment and referendum. Taiwan would not quickly declare independence, it’d be a slow process. Arguably, the PRC isn’t the only thing preventing a deceleration of independence.
The only two forces preventing full institutionalisation of Taiwanese republic are CCP (with military force) and their local lackeys KMT (with political force). KMT would sell their own family for Chinese money.
I doubt Taiwan would be able to declare independence easily. Not with the Kuomintang sitting in the Legislative Yuan and wanting the Republic of China to continue existing & maintaining status quo.
China is in a tough spot, which by association, puts us all in a tough spot. China needs to speed up its timeline for retaking Taiwan, because of their upcoming population bubble. Conversely, they’re not in the best position to invade: their only domestic-built aircraft carrier isn’t operational, they lack higher-ranked experience with command and control, and they have never been involved in any conflict, meaning their doctrine has never been tested.
It's also important to mention that Taiwan's population is also falling off a cliff. With both countries facing population decline, it's just a struggle of who can handle the issue better.
If there are currently 1.4 billion people in China's current territory, then they can absorb a lot of "population collapse" before it becomes a problem. For example their population can shrink by 95% before they even reach the current population density of Russia, and Russia is a powerful country. Shrink by 97% and China might reach the population density of Australia - but Australia too is a country well able to stand up for itself on the global stage. China's population has room to "free fall" for centuries before that situation would arrive - and in the current world environment, their neighbours are collapsing even faster, so there is still nothing for them to worry about.
@@AsusMemopad-us5lk what you said only makes sense if the population reduces uniformly and the whole society executes a “planned retreat” in a super organised fashion. The reality is the society is aging, there aren’t enough young people. The portion of low-productivity capital-hogging population (old people) becomes higher and higher, and it makes a reboot harder and harder. Staffing becomes harder because there are less working age ppl, more resources are consumed towards aged care, reinvestment is harder as most capital would be held by the ever greater proportion of population, who aren’t as interested in spending or investing. None of this helps promote having kids for the young people; and given its a authoritarian xenophobic state, it’s not exactly attractive to migrants either. It’s a long dark downward spiral. The country who has dealt with similar issue the best so far was Japan. But Japan has its ‘sponsor’, it has its excellent image, it has high tech and reputation of quality, it has excellent quality of life. But even Japan, it has stagnated for three decades now with no clear end in sight. China is doomed. (Unless a few extremely major changes happen or are forced upon them)
About the possibility of the dam being a target for missiles, concrete dams work just by being really heavy and impervious to water. Assuming the dam was built to its specifications, you can fire Taiwan's entire missile arsenal at it within 24 hours, and then repeat this for _10 years_ by conjuring missiles out of nowhere and it would still be fine. This is assuming of course no one cut corners on construction (I seem to remember China's own missile silos allegedly not being able to open their own doors, so who knows what corners were cut on other infrastructure projects).
I never seize to amaze at Americans double standard. I hope China will fight for Taiwan as hard, at Abraham Lincolnb and US fought for secession states. And I also hope, as Russian, that Russia will help China.
The CCP has spent trillions of dollars preparing for a war with Taiwan and the West, with a military build up exceeding the Nazi level build up that preceded WWII. China was in no danger of being invaded by any of its neighbors when it began this build up, which means its purpose is invasion of its neighbors. Its belligerence has sacrificed its future economy with its largest customers, with decoupling the result. For the CCP, the economic progress and success of the Chinese is a distant priority to the CCP's continued holding of power. The CCP's preparations will culminate in the next 12 to 18 months, at which time war becomes inevitable. Authoritarians don't spend trillions of dollars preparing for war, and then don't go to war.
The US spends more on its military every year than China and Russia combined. That is reason enough for China to increase its spending when they have the prosperity to do it. Remember that China is encircled by American military bases and allies. Most of the rhetoric coming from Beijing is just for local consumption. War with the US and coalition of the willing would be suicide for the PLA. Xi would never risk that over Taiwan. That being said, leaders often make stupid choices - like the Japanese attacking US in WW2, US invading Afghanistan, Russia in the Ukraine.
all depends on how the China-US economy stalemate plays out. if you keep on closing the gap between you and your opponent in economy and military as it has been for the past decade, time is always on your side. however, whether China can keep this trend or not has its uncertainties. that points to the statement at 6:31 being wrong. China's best hope is keep acquiring more substantial military assets than the US with military expenditure at lower % of GDP thanks to higher purchasing parity and closing tech gap. As long as it continues, the US will have to provoke really hard for a war or face the inevitable inability to defend Taiwan.
From some recent interview to China citizens, reunification war is hugely unpopular because most of citizens don't believe that they need a war between two Han races for that. So if they need to do a war, they have to do it very fast before civilians responded.
It doesn't matter. The government will do anything they want to do regardless of what civilians think. Most of us hated the zero covid policy but they still tortured us for three years and killed many people including children. And I feel most people detest President Xi but you could not stop him to change the constitution and make him a life-long emperor. Another example is the one-child policy that lasted for decades that they killed some second already-born kids brutally. That said they will try them best to let us think that Taiwanese are Taidu(like Nazi) and we need to liberlize them. Russian civilians are less brainwashed and their internet is much freer but civilians's response is still not stopping Putin. So I'm not very optimistic about it.
I have half Chinese blood in me, but i don't consider China as my homeland at all. My homeland, my citizenship is the country where I'm born from. Not the country where my race are from.
Do you really understand this period of Chinese history? In 1895, the Qing Dynasty was forced to sign the Treaty of Shimonoseki and cede Taiwan Province to Japan. In 1912, the Republic of China replaced the Qing Dynasty (the regime fell, and ROC inherited everything from the Qing Dynasty, including Taiwan Province, which the Qing government was forced to cede to Japan). After Japan's defeat in World War II, the territories plundered and colonized by Japan before were returned to all countries. In 1945, the Republic of China took back Taiwan Province, which was forced to cede to Japan in 1895. This is also the origin of why Taiwan is now called the "Republic of China". At this time, Taiwan is only a province under ROC. Afterwards, there was a civil war between the two political parties in China (the civil war between the Kuomintang and the Communist Party). The Communist Party took control of the mainland, and the Kuomintang was defeated and fled to Taiwan Province. By 1949, with the support of most Chinese people, the PRC was established in the mainland and replaced the ROC (the regime fell, and the PRC inherited all of the ROC, including Taiwan Province. Just like the ROC inherited the Qing Dynasty). But there is no denying the fact that the former government that fled to Taiwan Province was in power on the island under the banner of ROC. At this time, China formed two governments: the former government and the new government. Those who support independence in Taiwan will confuse the situation by describing it as two countries, often confusing sovereignty and governance rights. So far, the territorial scope of the two constitutions are intertwined. In 1971, United Nations Resolution 2758 restored the People's Republic of China's seat in the United Nations representing China. So far, the PRC government has received international recognition and has become the only legitimate government of China. After that, Chiang Kai-shek and the subsequent illegal former governments continued to be in power in Taiwan Province under the banner of ROC to this day. To be precise, they are still in a state of civil war. Some time after that, they also threatened to counterattack the mainland. At that time, their economy was much better than that of the mainland and they had strength. But now mainland China is the second most powerful country in the world, and the strength gap between the two sides is huge. They knew there was no hope of counterattack. The political interests of those in power would be shaken if they were unified. It's like asking Elon Musk to give up being the CEO of Tesla and become a car mechanic. Who would be willing to do that? ? Therefore, politicians all advocate Taiwan independence. They revise and delete Chinese history in their education system. And educate Taiwanese youth so that their subconscious minds think that Taiwan is a country. Is this considered brainwashing? ? ?
Why a country would invade other country in 21st century? Is China going to disappear from the map because of Taiwan or what? They can't exist without invading someone? Pls explain it to me I can't just get it.
1)The video overlooks a significant portion of the Taiwanese population that advocates for immediate reunification. Several political parties, including the KMT, have incorporated this goal into their charters. 2)The video fails to mention Taiwan's previous desire for reunification. Some in Taiwan changed their stance after recognizing China's growing strength, believing that if China remained weaker, Taiwan would not have pursued independence. 3)The video neglects to highlight Taiwan's constitution, which clearly states that both the mainland and Taiwan are parts of China. This implies that Taiwan's push for independence goes against its constitution. The DPP has contemplated this move but has hesitated, likely due to its implications. 4)The video omits the fact that the international community, including the US, does not officially recognize Taiwan as a sovereign nation. The US's stance isn't necessarily grounded in fairness but could be a strategic move to counterbalance China's influence. Without Taiwan as a buffer, China's growth might have been even more rapid, challenging the US's global position.
Per a survey conducted in July, 2022... 1.3% of Taiwanese want immediate unification with the mainland. Another 5% want the status quo and a move toward unification. In comparison, 5% want immediate independence and 25% want to maintain the status quo and a move toward independence. And the KMT absolutely does not advocate unification. They firmly advocate the status quo, viewing both independence and unification as a negative. So... Bullet point number one is just blatantly false. Taiwan did have a brief flirtation with unification, but it was never very strong. It peaks at around maybe 20% advocating unification. But China's brutal treatment of Hong Kong showed them that Beijing's word cannot be trusted and the popularity of that idea dropped like a lead anchor. The constitution states that there is only one China and it is headed in Taiwan and that the People's Republic of China is an illegitimate state. That doesn't mean the people of Taiwan have any desire to become part of the PRC. The US doesn't recognize Taiwan, correct. Yet the US pumps weapons into Taiwan and has legal documents that obligate it to defend Taiwan from any aggression. And no, Taiwan is not buffering China's growth. Taiwan is tiny. They are not a major threat to China. China was never going to take the US's position in the world.
@@jarynn8156 First off, the data you're referencing is current, not from when everything actually went down in 1949. The context of that time is super important in determining whether something was right or wrong. For instance, if you swipe someone's stuff, it doesn't magically become yours two decades later. Back in '49, both the Communist Party (CPC) and the Kuomintang (KMT) viewed mainland China and Taiwan as part of the same nation. So, even then, Taiwan was seen as a piece of China. Also, for decades, Taiwan has been aiming to retake the mainland. So, there's been a longstanding push for unification. Looking at Taiwan's constitution, even though it refers to the ROC, it still sees the mainland and Taiwan as one united entity. They're viewed as inseparable. Lastly, the U.S. labels Taiwan as this unsinkable aircraft carrier. We've got this well-known strategy where we use Taiwan to counterbalance China. It's no secret: the U.S. is aware of it, China gets it, the U.S. knows China gets it, and vice versa. Seems like you might be the last to catch on.
Very interesting how the interests of a 'significant portion of the population' suddenly doesn't matter when _you_ don't agree with it. Now you've shifted the goal post and it's a matter of what you _personally_ think is right and wrong - based on what people thought in 1949 and during the martial law years? No, don't act like that 'context' has any relevance in 2023. It's just you using outdated data to justify your interests. @@useranonymous2369
In theory, it's easy. All they have to do is agree on something and stick to it. In reality, neither side wants to make concessions they don't have to make it, and there can be no trust.
Many Taiwan people don't think of themself as Chinese. part of the reason is the autocracy CCP government and their rudely policy, part of the reason is the taiwan people Stockholm Syndrome miss miss the Japanese days
For military reasons I don't believe that China will just decide to invade Taiwan. It would not be easy as Taiwan has spent many years setting up defenses. China knows that in order to invade Taiwan they will have to defeat the western naval and air forces in the China seas. They will have to do this first as they would not want to open up two fronts. If they are successful in achieving this goal they would not immediately invade Taiwan. They would throw up a sea and air blockade around Taiwan for a long period of time. They could take Taiwan without an invasion.
You two idiots are so funny, if the Chinese government and people decide to use force, who would dare to interfere? What's more, this is a civil war between "two Chinas". Their civil war is not over yet. Learn more about Chinese history. If the United States dares to intervene, it will be an "invasion" of China. what do you think? Are the Chinese afraid of war? Decades ago, they had nothing and dared to fight the West led by the United States with broken guns in the Korean War. At that time, the West had everything, and it couldn't beat China! ! ! What do they have now Do you think he is weaker than Russia? 😂😂😂, the so-called war experience is just a fantasy. In the 21st century, with the help of science and technology, there is nothing that humans cannot do. . . A big country with a population of 1.4 billion+! The world's largest industrial capabilities, nuclear weapons, warships, aircraft carriers, atomic bombs, nuclear submarines, fifth-generation fighters, space stations, landing on the moon, actually landing on Mars (currently only the United States and China have achieved it), and the Beidou system (no worse than the GPS system). . . . what do they have Randomly mobilize an army of tens of millions or even hundreds of millions. All kinds of weapons will be produced like an assembly line, just like the current "world factory" production. Tens of millions, hundreds of millions of Chinese troops are fighting with these weapons, and Superman, the United States, and Spiderman in Marvel are all afraid! !
Taiwan is not a country, Taiwan's real name is Republic of China. Taiwan is only a province of it. Do not fooled by this propaganda.PRC and ROC are at civil war. There is no peace agreement from both side. There is no "invade" at all. Just like the US can not invade the texas.
@cf-yg4bdIf China's military success depends on it preemptively striking US ships and bases, then I would say this conflict won't happen. Can you imagine the big trouble the Chinese would put themselves in by doing this? It would be Pearl Harbor 2.0. Not only that, it would also mean war with other countries, since the US bases are located in countries like Japan and the Phillipines. This action by China would trigger a massive response from the US and allies, not only military but also politically. China would face isolation from important countries, which are American allies, because such action by China would give the US officials all the excuse/justification they need to not only put all of its military might against China, but also to convince their allies to go against China. What are you thoughts??
Fun fact. I'm from Germany and I work for the Brüggen company. Anything coming from Trader Joe's which contains cereals is actually produced by us. According to what I heard they don't do anything by themselves just let others produce
@@wenyichen5515 They said no Trader Joe's in sight at the start 🌚 I don't know if they have stores or so it's not a German brand but yeah I see these packages every day at work
This certainly sounds good too, but I think its still worth considering more reliable options like traditional businesses such as cannafarm ltd, for example.
I'm irish I know the feeling the feeling of your country not being whole and the shameful practically melancholy feelings you can have towards it, Tiawan and China situation really confuses me I don't get why they're feeling are this strong
Because Taiwan used to be an inherent territory of China, but after it was occupied by Japan, it never returned due to various reasons of World War II, so now there are various disputes. In fact, it is also the reason for the competition between China and the United States.
Thing is, the more China raises pressure, the less attractive Taiwan will be for investment. The more critical industries will be pulled out of Taiwan - and young educated Taiwanese are following.. until there are only those left who won't make a stance against "reunification".
It's kinda like a guy glaring at another guy and putting both of his fists up to roll them around like a boxer And the saddest thing is the vast majority of America literally won't care because our politics are only concerned with the most impossibly vain unimportant dribble baby shit possible.
I paid for a year subscription to Nebula but the user interface is terrible and Nebula has no public chat feature for for user discord, it doesn't even have a basic like or dislike button. I loved the idea of supporting a platform made by and for creators but Nebula has forgotten that creators are just one side of a coin, on the other side are the users who also need support and recognition which creates the community needed for Nebula's success. As Nebula is right now, I can't recommend it and I will most likely cancel my subscription. Love your videos though.
This guy literally just said "no" and didn't elaborate why. You just disagreed and you don't even know why, no counterarguments, nothing. Who's the armchair analyst now?
You need to stop pretending being a peace maker. The US had and continues to have full initiative on TW issue and kept causing troubles all over the years. At the same time you treat us as invaders? What hypocrite!
So, no mention of the decades long Civil War? The fact that the Chinese Republic once ruled the mainland? The fact that Chaing, who ruled on Taiwan for decades, never gave up on returning to the mainland even on his deathbed? The fact that 2 million people crossed the strait when the Republic failed? The fact that the PRC side had actually attempted to cross the strait but failed and met a US naval intervention. There's a reason the "reunification" has been consistent between every leader. To them, the war with the Republic isn't over, and the Americans are in the way. I don't support the war, but I can see why it's going to happen.
Also, they can't possibly change their tone. To do so would be to agree to lose all possibility of regaining the island territory. The pressure the US is putting on them to accept Taiwan as China but separate from China is the exact same strategy the Soviet Union used against the Republic early on following the 1911 revolution with Mongolia. That Mongolia would be China but independent within China. That was until the Soviets just took the opportunity to roll their troops in and defend Mongolian independence. Not because they thought Mongolia deserved it, which they do. But because it was in their best interest to have a buffer state between them under their control. And supposedly, in exchange for recognizing Mongolia, the Republic was given the promise that the Soviets would at least not aid the CCP in the Civil War. Which, of course, they did anyway. So they know what will happen if they casually accept those terms. They will lose the island. And they will totally lose control of the seas around them that they depend on. The economic pressure will also not end. If it was chess, they would be checked pretty hard. And sure, iyou want them to lose, you can argue it's a good thing. But they want to win this competition, so they will push back where they can.
Correct mistakes: this is a civil war between Chinese Mainland and Taiwan, China. So there is no claim of invasion. Both sides are separatist regimes, and whoever wins will inherit the Chinese orthodoxy.
Fun fact: The Taiwanese island of Kinmen is only about 3 km from mainland China. If Taiwan comes under the US dominance, this would mean that the US could put a base with nuclear weapons 3 km from mainland China. Remember what happened when the Russians wanted to put nukes in Cuba (as a result of the US putting nukes in Turkey), and imagine what would likely happen if the Chinese wanted to put their nukes in Mexico. When the Solomon Islands (~2,000 km away from Australia), entered a security policing agreement with China, the Australian media went totally ballistic about China "threat".
0:01: 🔍 China's military base in Inner Mongolia features a replica of Taiwan's Presidential Office Building, raising concerns of an invasion. 3:38: 🔍 China's growing military strength and assertiveness towards Taiwan raises concerns about the possibility of war. 7:17: 🇹🇼 The relationship between Taiwan and China has fluctuated based on the ruling political party in Taiwan, with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leading to increased tension and the Kuomintang (KMT) promoting engagement. 10:15: 🤔 China's position on Taiwan is ambiguous, with indications of both peaceful unification and a willingness to fight. 14:04: 💥 The military's mission is to prepare for every contingency, even unlikely ones, but the problem arises when this mindset escapes the Pentagon and warnings lose their institutional context, carrying undue credibility. 17:14: 🇹🇼 China aims to slowly wear down Taiwan's will to resist through uncertainty and insecurity, while America's pessimism risks doing China's work for it. Recap by Tammy AI
@@belnonaodh1520 Oh yeah? Like how the UK supreme court just determined that any further Scottish independence referendum will be "illegal" in 2022 because they KNEW the Scottish will succeed next time?
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Ahh so that's why the intro felt familiar.
so it's outdated lol
Taiwan is part of China. Imagine Azores not being part of Portugal as they are all ethnic Portuguese much like Taiwan are ethnic Han Chinese. I'll never understand the people of Taiwan who'd rather side with a genocidal nation known as the U.S versus their brothers. Just rightist logic I guess, a little bit like Ukraine.
Hawaii should be independent, not Taiwan.
@@danielcaldwell1110 ok "Daniel" "Caldwell" sounds super legit
As a Taiwanese, I thank videos like these to raise awareness about our situation. I hope we never go to war.
Too easy for people without anything at stake to talk whatever shit they want just to sound smart. It's way more tougher to stay alive and prosperous while surrounded by a hostile "neighbor", along with an ambiguous, opportunist "friend".
If you want to see what Taiwanese people are up against, just go through the comment thread under this post. I hope yall have a good day, good life, and never need to face the possibilities of war.
Wish you peace and prosperity from Czech Republic
The only way to avert war is for the ccp to collapse... unfortunately or fortunately.
I believe in the One china Policy, But the "one China" should be Republic of China. Not Peoples Republic of China.
Don’t worry your fine China an amphibious assault in the modern day with cruise missiles and artillery would be suicide also they lack landing craft and if they tried to press their super tankers into service they would be sitting ducks.
@bruh_rick Do you think that they really cared about us Taiwanese?
There's a well-known saying ' attacking Taiwan is less wiser than buying Taiwan, buying Taiwan is less wiser than deceiving Taiwanese and deceiving Taiwanese is less wiser than intimidating Taiwanese ' that is widely circulates in Chinese communities. It has been regarded as the best guiding principle by Chinese communists that subduing the enemy without real fighting and now they are committed to launching the cognitive battles and develop the nets of the collaborators in Taiwan.
Well, Chinese communist dictatorship has to be destroyed one way or another.
Smart. Took the US 60 years of outright aggression before they learned that one
China basically has nothing Taiwan wants in the context of becoming a new sate of China. How do you sell no democracy and censorship along with a fascist king? You don't at best you can try to undermine it but even then.
事实上作为一个中国人从来没有听过这句话 As a Chinese,I swear I had never heard of that😶
How's that been working for China? Taiwanese aren't intimidated by the Chinese...
I've been living in Taiwan all summer and the sharp increase in videos on Taiwan in the last 3 months has been noticeable at the very least
Propaganda financed by amurikens coming in nicely. Prepare for another war. Here in Europe we're fed with ameriken policy in our soil and I wish we became closer to the Chinese who have a proven record of being honorable.
As a South african I picked up the same tone over the last 2 years but the global lenses where kinda already on Taiwan before
It provides masturbation material for the anti-China brigade, and an easy way to gain views and likes.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
You think Bidens weakness and compromise will not be exploited? I think pre 2024 election they kick it off... why was purchase of China's 2 first aircraft carriers purchased from Ukraine? Any U.S. involvement? Talking politicians or children of? I would be curious.
I think the only timeline China has is when they are 100% sure that they can invade Taiwan successfully, they will invade; however, the timeline is not 100% set and China definitely does not want to send money and troops to the battlefield. This is the worst investment to China's POV. Peaceful unification with spending the least amount of bucks is what China's aiming for.
They will invade if Biden gets reelected. Biden has no shady deals in Taiwan and America is already exhausted sending aid to Ukraine. Biden has every reason not to protect Taiwan and every other country in the world will not send aid to Taiwan if the US refuses to do so.
Do you think that CCP was even 10% sure before they pushed the UN force back to 38 degree line when then?
an independent and prosperous taiwan will outlast the corruption and idiocy of the mainland communist party
Cope
@serriajohn Taiwan is a separate country. And liberation would imply they are oppressed. Taiwan is more prosperous than mainland China on virtually every metric. It would be hard to argue they would need liberating.
The Uyghurs, the Tibetans and the Hong Kong people on the other hand…
I don't think people realize how difficult Taiwan is to take.
do people realize how ez it would be to send Taiwan into the stone age?
Do you realize a salvo of missiles fired from China can make 2021 supply chain issue a trivial problem compared to chip shortage with Taiwan attacked?
China doesn't need to invade and conquer to hold the world hostage.
As difficult as it would be to suppress and pacify South-East Asia in order to enforce a blockade of the Malacca Straight
@@hwong1776For what benefit? The US and Taiwan both have contingency plans to destroy semiconductor plants and make them unusable when China invades.
If the Ukraine is anything to go by, the west will simply cut off banking in China like they did with Russia, and what happens next? War is lost.
@@hwong1776 You mean its easy to make Taiwan into like the current China?
A small correction about the party control timeline. While the DPP did win the presidential election (for the first time), the Kuomintang still had control over the legislature, heavily limiting the power of the DPP. You can see the difference in 2016 when they won both the presidency and the legislature and started doing actions they have been talking about for a long time.
At this point DPP are basically like KMT. DPP are too afraid to declare independence.
@@eruno_ So true. DPP kind of ditched Taiwan independence and went to take the ROC flag kind of becoming KMT under Chiang Chin-Kuo's days.
Where as KMT essentially devolved into CCP and are helping them spread propaganda everyday.
Sooner or later, the KMT will lose its control over the legislature too. Just mark my words.
@@willyang4487 The DDP has had the legislature since 2016. The gap closed a bit in 2020, but the DDP still has majority
This is just factually false. DPP has maintained control of the legislature (and all three branches of the central government) since 2016.
While I understand what you’re saying - I lived in China from 2004-2006. China in its current and economic and social circumstance, with Xi as it’s leader is not the same as prior administrations. That said, I don’t feel this is imminent - but the likelihood increases with decoupling and deepening social/economic/political troubles/crises.
😂😂As a Chinese, I just want to say that it's a good thing for you idiots to go abroad, and it's better for the country if the garbage goes away.
This is a text-book prisoners' dilemma. Both China and US prefer peace, but they are more afraid of losing a war. Neither can trust the other to not prepare for war. Therefore, both will prepare for war. As both side building up militariy capabilties, hostilities escalate and the prospect of war become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Mutual destruction will be the most likely outcome.
It Is not. China does not want to fight with America. It Is America who wants hegemony and wants to contain China. The situation benifits US weapon industry.
but why will one side even go to war iff the costs arre too high?
@@AanandBajajBecause the one that initiate the war enjoy the benefit of surprise, which increase its chance of winning. It might also expect the other to back off because the high costs of war.
@@chi-jenyang9752 This is only true if you disregard cooperation as a posibility. Something both poo countries share.
At what time in history has the US preferred peace? 84 coups in 70 years...that's across approximately 64 countries. Now the game is proxy wars...have some dupe and paid for shill die for you so you gain the financial reward from resources theft and financialisation. Check Ukraine for a great example of this model.
It seems unjust that these events are often presented as isolated incidents without any explanation of their underlying causes. I'm genuinely curious about the motivations behind the positive and negative actions taken during the KMT and DPP timelines. After all, there's almost always a cause driving every effect, and it's unreasonable to make evluations of intent without expanding on the topic even if its brief.
this video seems to imply that whenever Taiwanese vote for DPP they are brought closer to war. That's literally CCP (and to a similar degree KMT) propaganda talking point.
The Capital doesn't like to explain, that's why it spends millions if not billions in keeping it's population below average IQ. The moment we start to rationalize, we'd immediately drop Capitalism for Socialism,
@@danielcaldwell1110
Yes Chinese population is very dumb, they believe that Taiwan belongs to them even though they never controlled it.
@@danielcaldwell1110agreed. So many people being exploited by corporations and the ultra wealthy, while voting for parties and policies that perpetuate this exploitation because "socialism bad, capitalism good". As if the only two options are extreme economic inequality under capitalism, or fuckin North Korea/China.
Socialism doesnt work and I say this as someone from a country in crisos because of it.
I feel like not enough emphasis is put on the abject failure of “one country, two systems” and the breaking of the Sino-British treaty, big reasons why the idea of peaceful unification went out the window. It’s basically impossible for Beijing to convince Taiwan of anything unless the government changes trajectory rapidly.
there was no treaty for the handover. HK has to be return to China because the lease expired. the one country 2 system is a domestic law of China, China as a soverighty country has the right to change it law. in fact the national security law was already written before 1997. China simply choose not to enforce it. yet the western narrative lied to create a false impression that Beijing change it promise to HK. that was never the case, both because China didn't promise anything, it was just recieving a territory at the end of it legal lease, and the creation of these law were all made well before the handover.
Correct mistakes: this is a civil war between Chinese Mainland and Taiwan, China. So there is no claim of invasion. Both sides are separatist regimes, and whoever wins will inherit the Chinese orthodoxy.
@notri... can you explain the failure? as far as I know: because of the violent protest, china introduce security law which is softer than what UK & US have.
@@lagrangewei Why lie about basic things that can be easily Googled? There was of course a treaty outlining the handover and subsequent regime that Hong Kong would enjoy. It was the Sino-British Joint Declaration of 1984. It was ratified by both countries on 27 May 1985 and was registered at the United Nations by both governments on 12 June 1985. And it was in that document that had the PRC promise to uphold and keep Hong Kong Basic Law unchanged for at least 50 years after 1997 and establish the One-China-two-systems policy.
@@serebii666 "Why lie about basic things that can be easily Googled? " Because @lagrangeWEI doesn't use google. When he gets on VPN it's for youtube, not google. Or they are paid to state fake info.
let's hope this never happens
Sadly it's just a matter of when 💀 (We are so fucked.)
It would be funny tho!!
Don’t worry it won’t happen under my watch
@@josef7731we aren’t “f_cked 💀” there’s a difference in their hardware looking tough vs actually tough. Russia is a great example of that. Plus Chinas navy, Air Force, army, and rocket force, all work individually for some reason and not with each other. Use Ukraine as example, China would probably be worse too as they have no combat experience
hopefully Taiwan will surrender and there won’t be a damned war
Doesn't it sound funny that a country on the other side of the world opposes the merger of two countries that are both called china
Taiwan would have scrubbed “China” from its official name decades ago, except the PRC threatens to invade whenever the Taiwanese move to make the change. You are claiming/implying that “China” being in their official name is an expression of the will of the Taiwanese people. In reality “China” being in their name is actually an expression of the Taiwanese people’s aversion to being the target of violence. It is also an expression of the PRC’s evil. The global community of nations has been far too forgiving of these sorts of PRC transgressions. The PRC has long deserved to be heavily sanctioned.
It sounds more funny that a country is trying to annex another independent sovereign country it never controlled and frame it as "unification".
I always find the comment about how one can't know how good the PRC military is because it hasn't fought a major war since 1979 a bit disingenuous, because it is never applied to everyone else in East or South East Asia, for whom the same claim is also true. The South Korean military hasn't fought in major war since Vietnam. Japan hasn't fought anything since 1945. ROC forces haven't also fought any major engagements since the 1950's, really. And yet their ability to fight is never questioned in the same manner.
Because the PRC is the presumed aggressor, and invading is almost always harder than defending.
US training vs commie man meat wave...all our allies are part of the greatest military doctrine in the world. Ukraine had our help and incorporated our doctrine and training methods after 2014. Equal arms and no nukes...Russia would be part of ukraine rt now.
and how taiwan is an impenetrable fortress because look at afhagnistan.
@@clivestaples244 US military training doesn't mean combat experience. Watch and listen to his video.
@clivestaples244 the sad part is you are probably stupid enough to believe your own crap.
Just wanted to note that the sponsor Nebula is fantastic, even if it's a bit slow at times. Lots of interesting content that is well made.
I teach English to students in China and there's an aspect of this that Evan has mentioned before, but didn't come up in this video and bears repeating: Much of what Xi says about foreign policy is the equivalent of campaigning, if he had to stand for election. He's better at some things than others, but one thing he is absolute Jedi-level master at, is bundling his own agenda with national patriotism. With this in mind, a case could be made that neither the construction of the model in the desert, nor the release of the video showing how it was attacked, were intended for non-domestic consumption.
Taiwan is not a country, Taiwan's real name is Republic of China. Taiwan is only a province of it. Do not fooled by this propaganda.PRC and ROC are at civil war. There is no peace agreement from both side.
This makes a lot of sense. I noticed long ago that the Taiwanese issue is central for the CCP and hence for China as we know it today. I think some party officials are not as willing to reunify with Taiwan by force, but they must constantly bring up the topic to have internal order in China, and they will ultimately need to actually go for it if they feel like they need to.
Seeing how it goes, China has been threatening invasion and throwing red lines all over the place for decades now and they didn't invade.
But if the CCP says "We'll never invade we love Taiwan Taiwan is a country :)" that's when people should get real worried
If the people of Taiwan dare to declare an independent country, no one can stop it when it perishes, because it is too close to China and too far away from the United States, so it can be blocked and attacked at will.😂
台湾不是一个国家，甚至因为中国共产党他们被踢出联合国
What red lines? The ones you were running away all over the place from since decades ago? You're the one too scared already to declare independence and cut off.
This is an excellent video. Actual nuance in a RUclips story.
It is an excellent video on China/Taiwan relationship, better than any other videos on youtube on this topic. But it is sitll missing an important part(likely intentionally): the role of US in this relationship.
It is quite clear China does not want a war, Taiwan does not want a war, but anyone with some intelligence can see the US is really wanting a war in the taiwan strait. US will not fight for Taiwan, it will give up Taiwan but will sanction China and isolate it from the world economy, like it did to Russia. it sees this as an opportunity to deter China from overtaking it as the most powerful country.
This is the reason you see all those war predictions, they really want it.
Both cases of chinese plan are true. China does not want a war, wars are costly. They'd rather install a puppet regime and integrate them through that process. However if they can't install a puppet regime war is more profittable for them in the long run than waiting them out. Specifically now more than ever since they have lots of problems in their future which will stem mainly from their population collapse. Once they reach that stage (about 2050) they can't take Taiwan. So they have a window of opportunity. Either install a puppet regime, invade them or never be able to capture taiwan.
Why would they announce it to people? No amount of stealth technology would prevent adversaries from spotting the collection of forces around taiwan. Russia's attempt to hide it was seen for months called out weeks before. So there is no down side. But why announce it? because it benefits their wolf diplomacy. It makes them look strong to their people. It has the downside of putting a time limit but there is already a ticking bomb (population collapse).
Can they win this invasion? Depends on western intervention and how far they want to go but if they have learnt their lessons from russia's failed invasion, it's to level the fuck out of taiwan's each military installation and decision making body before any attempt is launched. Which means yes they can succesfully hit ground but holding is a different topic. It'd be the afghanistan of china though more likely end in success than a literal invasion of afghanistan.
This shouldn't even be a possible scenario. Even if this damages their economy, it would damage world economy so much more because of microchips. TSMC produces 70-90% of the high performing chips.
As long as China doesn't invade Taiwan (and that means bloodshed), I say let them try to install a puppet regime that may or may not happen in the next 30 years.
Nobody wants war. But hope is not a strategy. It takes time to prepare and the best prevention is a good defense and the best defense is a good offense. At the same time, I can see China using it to try to distract their population from their domestic and international issues. In 2019, they had 3.7 million tourists and 2023 they had 50,000! China needs to be careful that their saber rattling distraction doesn't paint themselves into a corner where they force themselves to lose their precious and most valuable asset, young sons. Their population will start to be cut in half within 10 years and like Russia, they cannot afford to lose their future. War with Taiwan will put fuel to their economy that is currently on fire like Maui.
Correct mistakes: The civil war between Chinese Mainland and Taiwan, China has not ended, so there is no talk of invasion. Both sides are separatist regimes, and whoever wins will inherit the Chinese orthodoxy. For national unity, chips are of no value.
@@dtsai "Nobody wants war" reminds me of that book, "war is a racket".
@@dtsai Europe and the United States' struggling economies are the key factors in the decline of foreign tourists
Lol the amount of "when will China invite Taiwan" videos I've seen the last few months from various RUclipsrs
Is there some type of state department grant to produce content like this, or is this just part of the propaganda wing of the US government passing itself off as if it were independent creators? Honestly, hard to say. The intense level of anti-china propaganda lately has been insane, and it's rapidly racing towards cold-war level anti-soviet propaganda..
Along with the "30 days for Chinese Collapse" ones
Yeah and imo, I say only polymatters Videos about China are the most informative and non biased ones, real life lore is awesome but his videos about China aren't really correctly informative.
Doom and gloom gets the most attention
Exactly as we've been seeing constant videos and news about Russia invading Ukraine... and nobody believed that... and it was to no end, and it was always next week ... until it actually happened, and then none of us was laughting anymore. Do not underestimate irrational dictatorships.
One issue tho is that military hardware and ammunition don't have an infinite shelf-life. If China is going to commit to such high levels of war material production they have to have a plan to use it, if not for just the sake of internal or regional defense which I find to be unlikely. Power projection on a worldwide level is not a cheap thing to undertake, neither is expending all branches of a countries armed forces simultaneously while investing in a space program, stealth fighter programs, propulsion research and drone warfare. One might say it's to increase foreign export sales but we all know the Chinese don't have a lot of customers lining up to buy their stuff.
One might also point out that China is pumping out unproven military hardware at an unsustainable rate, and without a solid plan to put any of it to real-world use would be a very bad investment. Yes, large militaries make a country look strong. It also makes a huge difference when it comes to who the military higher-ups want to be in charge of their nations economy and foreign policy. However no nation can print money from nothing, and no nation...not even one as dishonest towards outsiders as China...can just keep producing more and more military hardware that then ends up largely out of commission from a focus on production over maintainence because numbers are what gets the bonuses and praise. It's something that played a large role in the eventual downfall of the soviet union and if China doesn't backtrack it to some degree they're going to be in a similar boat sooner or later...assuming they don't invade Taiwan before all those shiny new tanks and destroyers rust away 1st.
身为中国人感觉你的担心很可笑，你根本不了解中国，更不了解中国军事，你的认知仅限于西方媒体告诉你的
U wrote too much. Less is more.
tl;dr you're just crying that the country has anything at all since Mao won against you. Smaller economies still exist without collapsing despite making less stuff.
Well let's just hope that the failure of the Ukraine War has put off China from invading Taiwan, especially considering that amphibious landings are one of the most difficult operations to execute.
Especially when you consider that it is highly likely that the US will get directly involved due to strategic interests. (microchips)
The fact that the US is persuing a generational leap in both ground and ship based fighters, and deploying a palletised system for deploying ASMs in bulk should tell you what our projected level of involvement will be.
@@bohba13 Lol I suppose that the Taiwanese threat to destroy their own microchip facilities in invasion is not only a deterrent against China but also a chain to pull in the US as well haha
@@MemoryofSouthVietnam when you have a military as tech-heavy as the US that's probably the case.
@@MemoryofSouthVietnam it's a given that if a war starts those factories are basically done. Those things are not coming out of the war in one piece not matter who wins.
You put too much faith in Xi Jinping's intelligence and rationality.
Great video but I really wish you'd do more of a conclusion rather than just go straight into the nebula promo but I get why you do it. Videos always feel like they end so abruptly, I get whiplash
I think this is actually the best part of this channel, presenting numbers quote and facts, doing less comentary. At the end of each video you will have a conclusion yourself.
TLDW: The best approach for Taiwan and the US is to keep calm and carry on.
The US doesn’t want calm it wants to sell weapons
@singpoopthroawaydid you even watch the video?
@singpoopthroaway tell pelosi to stop traveling to taiwan to get insider news to trade on
Correct mistakes: The civil war between Chinese Mainland and Taiwan, China has not ended, so there is no talk of invasion. Both sides are separatist regimes, and whoever wins will inherit the Chinese orthodoxy. For national unity, chips are of no value.
taiwan will likely try to calm down, but US will try very hard to make taiwan the ukraine 2.0.
I am Taiwanese. The China air fighter invade the border of Taiwan everyday.Thepurpose of China's invasion of Taiwan is to build Taiwan into a military base for future wars against Japan and the United States, and to serve as a springboard for China to break through the first island chain defense line. Taiwan and Japan are strategically located as a community with a shared future. It is necessary for the two countries to cooperate in the military and establish a military alliance.
笑死
以前国民党在南昌被打下来过你知道吗？没有飞台北上空已经很客气了
This is so ridiculous.
那我們的軍機為什麼不把共軍機打下來啊😢
@@SatelliteTorifune 打下来正好美国可以拿你当肉盾？借刀杀人
We may not know when and if China will invade Taiwan, but there is a lot of semiconductor investment taking place outside the island now !
The ending of the semiconductor monoploy while great news for so many of us, is a serious risk for Taiwan as the huge economic motiive to preserve itself with other’s help will be gone. Hopefully morals, the statragitic limiting of the CCP, and the rise of economic ties in other areas will be enough to maintain and grow Taiwan’s ties with others.
Not all investment is going outside Taiwan. The bulk of TSMC investment is still in Taiwan and TSMC is by far the leading edge manufacturer of semiconductor, especially high end ones (like 90% of the market).
What TSMC is building in Arizona will manufacture 3nm which is currently the bleeding edge. But it is a factory being built to manufacture today's top of the line chips, so it ain't gonna be bleeding edge when it comes online in like 2024. Factories in Taiwan are slated for 1nm.
In total, TSMC makes about 2.7 million wafers per month (wafers which then go on to be "cut" into smaller parts that then are the heart of the product). Arizona will make about 100k of that. Tho that 2.7 million likely does include a lot of the lower end chips as well, the us production is still not mammoth.
The most advanced ones will still be made in Taiwan. Korea is closest to catching up there but still need to figure how to mass produce them at Taiwan’s capacity.
On Arizona, Americans need to realize the amount of Taiwanese experts they need just to build, maintain, and operate the factory because America outsourced all that know-how and experience to Asia decades ago. Then we talk about work ethic and culture, it’s a huge gap before you’ll be able to supersede Taiwan in mass production. You don’t just work a comfy 9-5 and sitting there watching the ASML machine do everything.
会不会是美国和中国合作一起抽空台湾呢
I do feel like Americans are a little bit too certain about war after Ukraine. It’s important to understand war would be economically disastrous for China. Not to say it’s impossible, but as of now China can’t win easily and war would be against china’s interests.
Ukraine was against Russia's interests too.
Putin...fafo.
China's extended covid lockdowns were also economically disastrous. It's very unwise to make predictions based on rational behavior out of a government who unanimously broke tradition and reelected xi for an unprecedented third term. Unanimous being the key word here.
如果中国战败
中国以后会做什么？
我相信中国会全力以赴的报复美国！
By many accounts, not even the Russian military believed they were invading Ukraine - they assumed they were gathering as a show of force, and a reminder, not a full invasion. Then the orders came down to move in, and things quickly fell apart.
With everyone taken so far by surprise, it's no wonder everyone's wondering if Xi is going to make a similarly unexpected - and inadvisable - decision.
China has avoided taking a stand on invading Taiwan because they've always believed that Taiwan would eventually reunify with China. That's why they were happy when the One-China policy was agreed to. However, as Taiwan loses its connection with mainland China, and younger people become more and more disillusioned with the CCP, the chances of peaceful reunification go down every year. China's actions in Hong Kong were probably the final straw. Taiwan has a presidential election in January 2024, and if you look at opinion polls, the KMT is in 3rd place behind the DPP (who are in first) and a new party called the TPP, pushing for a centrist alternative.
Based on all that, it's clear that the people of Taiwan have little interest in peaceful reunification anytime soon, so Xi is going to have to face facts that his propaganda is wrong. Combined with the fact that China's military is stronger than America's in certain ways, they could very well invade, probably not in 2024 or 2027, but almost certainly by 2049.
fun fact that most taiwanese are unaware that Tsai supported and donated money to the HK protest as she was on the blink of losing her re-election. The fact that the riot got out of hands in HK got her a huge swings of votes. dont believe me? look at the numbers during the 2020 election, Han guo yu was at least 10% ahead of her
@@ftu2021 The same cannot be said for the 2022 local elections, where DPP lost to KMT and TPP in mayoral and magisterial positions, which made Tsai resign as party head.
I don't know if her party could win 2024 presidential election. I overheard from my dad who sometimes watch Taiwan news channels that DPP has been poorly handling the economy and domestic issues like rising costs of living.
@@ftu2021 every time there is an election some thing goes down like the "twice" girl's apology or assassination attempt on ah bien.
@@TechieWidget dpp and cpc has a lot in common. screw the local economy but able to stay in power by making chinese and taiwanese hate on each other
@@ftu2021 I've seen the opinion polls, Han was beating Tsai by a huge margin as late as early 2019, and the KMT won a massive victory in the 2018 local elections. I don't know how I feel about Tsai donating to the Hong Kong protests, but if she did, she might've done an amazing political move, as China's crackdown means the DPP is unlikely to lose a presidential election anytime soon.
14:15 Well, I don't know about that. I mean, what's prohibiting from each and any general then to claim war is imminent each month of each year till 2049 and beyond? I mean, since you can't "rule out" ANY day of the year China might invade, the logical conclusion of this line of thought is that it would be a real scandal every time any day was omitted. If 2023 is seen as "realistic" - we're already more then half passed this - then any other date could be seen as realistic as well. So you could come up with ANY date at all, and it would always be a real scandal if you would not say it's possible? Makes no sense. Then NO predictions for a given year are necessary anymore, just say "any date is possible" and you'll always be right without needing another headline.
When he said “sponsored by China Actually” I was like 😳😳😳😳😳
The problem I see that is holding China back is three fold:
1. They lack the transports necessary to attempt this invasion, it's why the action has been referred to as the "Million Man Swim". As it stands most of China's fleet is short range ships that lack the ferrying capacity to actually conduct this invasion. They simply can't get enough soldiers across the water to get there.
2. A significant amount of China's oil comes via a single pipe in the Indian Ocean with the rest being shipped through a single waterway. It would take a minute fraction of the US navy to camp out over that pipe or restrict access through the straight to China to cut off the majority of China's oil.
3. Ukraine. The successful defense of Ukraine coupled with the widescale sanctions & boycotts have demonstrated to China that they are not guaranteed victory and the price of the effort will likely cripple them. Russia can weather the storm to an extent but China's economy is far more reliant on the international market. They would essentially doom themselves.
Could they still invade? Sure. Will it be successful? Probably not. But at least in this way we can see the few things that are likely holding China back.
What's holding china back is why invading Taiwan just to destroy it. Taiwan doesn't hold resources like Ukraine do, they don't even have fresh water. The chips factory doesn't do any good if you destroy them. And the resources spend on war can easily create their own chips. What china wants to do is unify with taiwan peacefully, may take centuries if it has to. This won't work if Taiwan claim indepdent. So everyone was happy with the status quo until American gets invovled.
Taiwan is not a country, Taiwan's real name is Republic of China. Taiwan is only a province of it. Do not fooled by this propaganda.PRC and ROC are at civil war. There is no peace agreement from both side.
A fourth point to be added, is China is living its most prosperous moment in history, since the republic was founded. It will not make sense to attempt such an adventure that might lead them to disaster, as you mentioned. They are expected to become the world's number 1 economy by the coming decade. They will be stronger and more powerful than the US. So they want to wait until that day to attempt any military operation in Taiwan.
But of course the US knowing this will try to provoke the Chinese into an attack on Taiwan right now, so the US can put all of its allies against China, just like they are doing to Russia because it would be perfect for the US to weaken China militarily and economically at present time.
@@User-jr7vf I agree somewhat in that China has 0 motivations to risk their highly successful moment on an attempted invasion of Taiwan but there are a wide range of problems facing China that will likely hold it back from becoming the leading global economy, political maneuvering by the west aside.
China would still need to build up a massive quantity of ships, infrastructure, secure an oil source that doesn't require shipping to the country, while dealing with the myriad of growing issues it has. It just doesn't seem realistic that the time will ever line up that China will be in a "good" position to invade.
As a Chinese mainlander, I hope there’ll be no war between the two sides. However, sometimes certain things are very difficult to prevent and can be quite inevitable.
It's easy to avoid.
All the barbarians in Beijing need to do is accept that people in a country that owes them nothing don't want anything to do with them.
@@bobs_toys that’s pretty “easy” for you to say lol
@@willyang4487 you'd be surprised at how little effort it takes to do nothing.
And that's all the barbarians in Beijing need to do to avoid a war.
Nothing.
@@bobs_toys We'll unify soon or later. Anglo schizos can complain and speculate all you want, but unity is inevitable. Violence is not necessary, the status quo will be preserved until they're fully integrated economy and then the walls come down. Taiwanese aren't stupid and will concede once the benefits outweigh the negatives.. This is ultimately just a political dispute. It's not a race war like how the Anglos despise the Chinese.
@@bobs_toys With the mainland Chinese doing nothing, I see the US increasing its influence and presence in Taiwan more and more, to the point that it becomes a real threat to China's security and stability. In other words, we will have a Russia-Ukraine 2.0.
I think Chinese aggression against Taiwan is inevitable. They have been wanting to take Taiwan for decades, and the political debt has been piling up. Each generation of China's politicians have been increasingly raised with the thought that Taiwan must be conquered, and so they will feel obligated to make it so. What once was meant to distract from domestic issues, is becoming a military mandate.
after taking taiwan china can't use taiwan as their boogieman
US, UK, Russia promise China that Taiwan will belong to them after WWII. the West need to honor it committment and comply with the UN resolution on "one china".
It it beacuase If they successfully take Taiwan they will go down in history as the peaople who finally reunited china
Taiwan is not a country, Taiwan's real name is Republic of China. Taiwan is only a province of it. Do not fooled by this propaganda.PRC and ROC are at civil war. There is no peace agreement from both side.
IF more than When.
Russia teaches us that bluffs turn into reality
Agreeed
1:38 , as soon as hear the word "invasion" and "neighbor", I know you either did not study the history of the dispute over Taiwan or you are deliberately misleading the audience to believe Taiwan is a different country from China. Taiwan is a China's government in exile, technically Taiwan is China! There is a Chinese civil war that has not officially ended yet, no matter what happens next between the mainland and Taiwan is a Chinese internal affair. Please leave it to the Chinese people to settle it.
I think they should ask the people if they won’t to unify or not and accept the outcome. But I agree this is a China affair and no one has the right to interfere.
@@parveskoyes9937 Thank you!
I’m sick of seeing these charts showing Chinese vs US Navy fleet vessel counts. It’s not about numbers with ships it’s about tonnage and armaments😂
The biggest gap between China and the United States is the submarine, followed by aircraft carriers, destroyers such as combat ships, but the gap is the smallest, and even in the technical level is still ahead.
This topic has been on my mind a lot and this channel has a really special perspective! Thanks from Utah for staying vigilant. :)
"We will have Taiwan!"
"When will we have Taiwan?"
"To gulag with you!"
Somewhere in ccp politburo, probably
If you can’t be vague like us, then you’re a fake and fraud to the Chinese cause
Chinese politicians know what's going on. I doubt they'd need to ask at this point.
That would be funny ha ha.
Interesting how over youtube's life the titles go from "Could China ever invade Taiwan"
To
"WHEN will China invade Taiwan" 👀
"敢于斗争" means "dare to fight" in English. "斗争" implies fighting or conflict. A term like "奋斗" is more commonly used for "struggle" in the sense of overcoming adversity or some internal force; the most (in)famous example being the Chinese translation of "Mein Kampf."
Why not emphasis love, peace and cooperation? Must the "dare to fight" be injected in the blood of Chinese people ~ the peace loving people.
@@johnyan836 The peace-loving people who support a government who routinely threatens war against the almost 24 million people who live on Taiwan?
This is in the video 13:04
@@johnyan836 because it's pep talk to the military. what kind of military in the world talks about love and peace? grow up
Excellent presentation with insight to the what ifs!
Ambiguity has to be exploited either way. More weapons to Taiwan, more focus on the South China Sea. It works in reverse too, and is just as required. Then again everyone thought Russia invading Ukraine would never happen and was crazy... except for the USA which go it right.
所以你支持乌克兰人屠杀俄罗斯人
Considering the US has got plenty wrong before, and is the other major party held responsible for the war in Ukraine in the first place, saying they 'got it right' is disingenuous. Like an insider trader getting the movement of a particular stock right.
@@ArawnOfAnnwn saying "America bad" is far easier than actually thinking about it isn't it? Because that and actual research would reveal that this is not about America, it's about Russia and it desperately trying to prove itself as still a great power that rightfully controls eastern europe, according to their official channels they show actual Russians, instead of the ones for retarded or fascist westerners
From 1958 to 1979, the CCP attacked the small island of Taiwan - Kinmen. Kinmen is 6 kilometers away from China, while Taiwan is 277 kilometers away from Kinmen. The most intense battle was between August 23 and October 5, 1958. The ground artillery fired 100,000 to 200,000 rounds for the first time, and then fired 1,000 rounds every day. Then it was not until January 1, 1979, the day of the establishment of diplomatic relations with the United States, that the shelling was stopped.
Bro, in two weeks I’m moving to Taiwan.
Don’t scare me like that. XD
They see Taiwan as its own. Probably won't use more force than necessary to re-unify with them, so you're probably safe.
That's great until it becomes a protracted war.
How can you afford it? Most young people in Taiwan can barely afford a "shoebox" apartment. Same story in places like Hong Kong and Korea.
@@J_X999在其他城市买房子很便宜
@@Li.Meng.aren't you a Chinese how did you bypass the firewall.
It's funny to see "deterrence" used in this context
Why?
@@JohnDorian-j7x in geopoliticis, the term "deterrence" is usually used by the more vulnerable party to... "deter" conflict initiation from the dominant party. In this case, the dominant party is citing "deterrence" to "deter" the vulnerable party from... ???
@@ulamss5 I don't agree with "usually used by the more vulnerable party" part of your definition of deterrence. For example, the US's number one name in the game for the past half century has been "deterrence". Every nation can practice deterrence no matter how small or how large (in terms of power disparity). Or do you mean the irony of it? ie, the fact that a small nation is standing up to a big nation?
The current concern is that China might launch missile strikes against Taiwan and the US at any moment, without necessarily invading. That's why Taiwan views any flight incursion into its Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) as a potential attack. I'm not convinced that American or Taiwanese forces, along with their allies, are always fully combat-ready. After an initial strike, an aerial campaign might ensue, and after several months, a land invasion of Taiwan could take place. No one anticipated Hitler's invasion of Poland. Everyone was aware of the war preparations, but the specifics of when and how were uncertain. The same could be true for China. They might inflict significant losses and establish an aerial denial zone, preventing US forces from approaching. I can't predict the outcome of a blitzkrieg-like scenario. However, what I do believe is that if it were a prolonged war, the US and Taiwan would ultimately prevail, much like the Allies did in 1945.
Great essay of fantasyland.
Lol every time a commercial flight takes off from Southern China it "violates Taiwan's ADZ".
@@doom2avatar I'm talking about military aircraft.
@@jul1anuhd
Judging by your 'essay' I don't think you do.
Don't sweat it bro...Taiwan already has nukes. Same with Japan and S. Korea. Wait for the reveal and winnie's Pikachu face.
Taiwan is amazing ❤
RealLifeLore, Wendover and now you in a span of 15 minutes
same for me 😊
Almost like those videos where all the news networks talk about the same thing.
@@randomdude8877 To be fair, RLL and Wendover are made by the same guys.
@@vincenttt8289 Not really, they're friends but different people.
does polymatter actually speak/read chinese? just curious
I highly doubt that
Why does that matter? Did he get something factually incorrect that could have been caught otherwise?
@@JohnDorian-j7x just curious as to how he conducts his research
just cia talking points
@@JohnDorian-j7x Guess which side the English sources are heavily biased towards?
Taiwan has never been recognized as a country by the international community. In fact, decades ago, it was still competing with the mainland for the title of legitimate China. Its full name is ROC (Republic Of China) and Taiwan is just the name of an island. I know that many people here like to compare it with Ukraine, but obviously, these are two completely different situations.
Its not recognized officially to appease China. Everyone knows that for all intents and purposes it is an independent country.
@@PlautusScipio it cant really be recognised as an independent country. If it is, then which is the real China? Taiwan lays claim to the chinese mainland, and China lays claim to the island of Taiwan. To recognise both is to recognise neither.
@@Imbalanxd I dont think Taiwan is as fixated on being the "real" China anymore, they just want to maintain independence.
@@PlautusScipio Yeah, purely for practical and political reasons. They cant remain the worlds darling if its revealed that their ruling party was a dictatorship till the 90s and that they have their own, more expansive 9 dash line. Taiwan isnt who you think they are. America is the best publicity agent in the world, just look at how clean they made Israel look for decades.
@@PlautusScipio If countries were distinguished by their intentions and purposes, there would not be only more than 200 countries in the world, nor would there be such a stable international situation.
Super insightive video
Even though "90% of the world's largest ships transit through the Taiwan Strait" the alternative route does not necessarily involve taking the longer route through Indonesia. After all, having passed through the true chokepoint of the Strait of Malacca, northbound ships could sail to the east of Taiwan. Or are you assuming that closing the Taiwan Strait would necessarily involve blockade of the Strait of Malacca?
China must think twice the consequences of blockade Taiwan Strait. If no Middle East crude oil can reach the shore of China, what would be the outcome?
@@johnyan836 Yup. That's why they are stockpiling Russian oil. The Hudson Institute recently uploaded a video called "China Prepares for War: A Timeline". War would be folly, but we should never underestimate what authoritarians will attempt in order to cling to undeserved power.
@@johnyan836 The result would be that China would destroy all refineries on American soil with intercontinental missiles
@@johnyan836 There are overland routes. China isn't an island, Taiwan is. And btw, so is Japan...Also closing the Strait of Malacca necessarily involves either getting the approval of half a dozen countries in the region - who would be voting against their own interests as it would hurt their economies more - or forcing them to comply, thereby involving half a dozen neutral countries in your war. Also looks incredibly cowardly to do that just to avoid entering the lion's den and fighting them yourself.
@@ArawnOfAnnwn
Why vote when there are aircraft carrierS.
Thanks for making these videos rising the problems we're facing daily.
As a citizen currently in my 20s, the era of rapidly changing "friendliness" of PRC consists almost whole of my life.
I never thought of anyone out of Taiwan could fully understand the fear and other matters we're up against, since its really a special situation;
but if you are in those parts undergoing similar conflicts, I wish for your best luck,
and if you are reading this, also thanks for giving a little care.
Why not go check out comments and replies of this video's comment section?
Maybe these Simplified Chinese comments cant let you have a grasp of how we are viewed as "traitors", "dogs", and other nasty things,
simply due to the fact that we THINK we're an independent country.
But after all you can't really blame them, when thats whats their education taught them, also what there whole society have in mind.
至于为什么你们会被称呼为叛徒或者其他什么，还是那点你们忘记了你们真正的身份，而中华民族从来都不是对于执迷不悟的在外族欺压同胞时助纣为虐，为虎作伥的人有任何容忍。 从古至今皆是如此。 至于你们是独立国家还有中国的正统性？ 民可载舟亦可覆舟，得道者多助，失道者寡助。 有鉴于你们民国在大陆执政时期的严重糟糕表现，人民选择在土共与你们进行传统的争夺天命时帮助土共，并最终获胜，你们被赶下海流亡台湾，当了美国人的傀儡，成王败寇，按照历史上一贯的规矩你们失去了正统性。 就介么简单
当然我也很好奇是什么让你们即使是在黑帮横行、黄赌毒俱全毫无安全感可言。 失去大陆念在同胞份上的惠台输血政策后经济就收到重创，民进党天天给你们引进各种好东西：莱猪，福食等等这么一个不做人的政党你们还能忍得下去？ 为什么你们还对民进党忠心耿耿？ 说实在的，我很好奇其中原因，可以给我讲讲你们为什么会这样，别跟我说又是没半点独立思考的脑子和动手查各种资料的动手能力，僵尸见了都不咬的绿脑怪那套摸黑的东西，
希望你能让我看到点独派的新的见解
If I don't have to check every "back door" under the rule of CCP, I'd not mind the "unification". But the reality is ... ? I am a Taiwanese, BTW.
@@johnyan836你是台湾人可以大大方方电说繁体字，我相信你也能看懂简体字，中国只是想接回自己的孩子，台湾现在对于美国来说就是一块想要占有的殖民地，目的就像当年侵略朝鲜一样，只不过吃了朝鲜的亏，知道硬的不行来软的，现在好多台湾同胞已经被洗脑了，也包括你
The world is not ruled by what you think.
This is about China vs the US more than it is China vs Taiwan. Taiwan just so happens to be caught in the crossfire of this crippling China and U.S. relationship. TSMC, the Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturer is incredibly important to the U.S. It supplies chips to the most important American tech giants, AMD, Apple, Nvidia, and Qualcomm. There's a reason why they sanctioned Huawei to protect American companies at home, and now they desperately need TSMC in order to control the semi-conductor industry and it benefits the American tech giants. The U.S. is afraid of global competition because the U.S. won't be the #1 world superpower if they fall behind other nations whether it's technology, space or military.
A war between China and Taiwan is a very unpopular opinion for most Chinese and Taiwanese citizens, it will end in disaster for both countries, similar to Ukraine vs Russia and the Israel-Hamas war. Unfortunately, the U.S. is heavily pushing this China vs Taiwan war agenda/propaganda because it will help the U.S. stay as the #1 world superpower once China crumbles financially from the war. And to the white-washed Taiwanese, no the U.S. does not care about your people, most Americans see Asians as Asians and not Taiwanese. The U.S. government only cares about what's beneficial to them back in America. Remember, the U.S. is the current world police and it wants to stay that way. U.S. will actually profit from this war as they will sell military equipment and personnel to Taiwan. U.S. will have complete domination over the entire world once China crumbles.
4:23 this is innacurate when looked at through tonage the us is waaaay ahead because china counts even a canoe as a “warship”
1. In 1894, Japan invaded China and Korea, the Qing govt of China was defeated and signed the [Treaty of Shimonoseki] to cede Taiwan Island to Japan.
2. During the WW2, at the Cairo Conference held in 1943, China requested the transfer of Taiwan's sovereignty back to China after the war. This content was included in the [Cairo Declaration] and later reiterated in the [Potsdam Proclamation] that it should be implemented.
3. On 14 Aug & 2 Sept 1945, the Emperor and govt of Japan issued the [End War Edict] and [Japanese Instrument of Surrender] respectively, Japan surrendered and accepted the [Potsdam Proclamation]. The Japanese troops in Taiwan surrendered to KMT General Chiang Kai-Shek, Taiwan re-entered the territory of the Republic of China (ROC).
4. Soon after that China civil war broke out between KMT and CPC, the KMT was defeated and fled to Taiwan. However, due to US's intervention, the CPC without a strong navy at that time has no ability to unify Taiwan. The CPC then established the People's Republic of China (PRC) in 1949. Since then, both sides constitutionally claimed itself being the legitimate government of China, which consisted of Mainland China+Taiwan Island in its entirety.
5. In 1971, UN Resolution No. 2758 ruled that the PRC had obtained the representation rights and all legal rights originally owned by the ROC in the UN. That means the PRC is China's only legal govt under international law, and today the PRC also become China's only legal govt recognized by 180 countries around the world, including the USA. "The USA recognizes the Government of the PRC as the sole legal Government of China. Within this context, the people of the USA will maintain cultural, commercial, and other unofficial relations with the people of Taiwan." Joint Cummunique on the Establishment of Diplomatic relations between the PRC and the USA (16th December 1978). As such, the ROC has no more embassy in America, UK, France, Japan, Germany, Italy, etc, and they were replaced by PRC embassies in these countries.
6. Therefore, according to international laws, international diplomatic reality, and the wishes of the overwhelming majority of the combined 1.4 billion people from both sides, the PRC has every rights to protect its sovereign integrity. To demonstrate how legitimate China’s claim of sovereignty in Taiwan, think about this: It’s more legitimate than the three Baltic countries’ territorial claims: Most of the republics of the former Soviet Union signed the Alma-Ata Declaration, which clarified the boundaries of the signatory countries and thus effective under international law. The three Baltic states Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania did not sign the Almaty Declaration. Moreover, they declared their independence before the disintegration of the Soviet Union, and they did not sign confirmation documents with the Soviet Union at that time. If no one disputes the territorial claims of the Baltic states, why there’re disputes in China’s rights over Taiwan?
7. Today, the government in Taiwan is no more than remnants of China’s former government. There’s zero difference if in 1949 the remnants had fled for Jiangxi, Jiangsu or Hunan, instead of Taiwan. They are all a part of China in exactly the same way. They did not automatically become another country just because the remnants fled there. If some remnants of the China former government had fled to the United States, would the United States have become the ROC as well?
8. Taiwan has never been an independent country by itself, NEVER, in any history records. Yes, Taiwanese have their own passports, but Hong Kong and Macao people have their own passports too, but they are still a part of China. If Catalonians decides to print their own passports today, that doesn’t mean Catalonia is an independent country tomorrow.
9. If Taiwan decides to go for independence, just like Catalonia or Scotland is trying to, it’s all China’s domestic matter. It has nothing to do with other countries. But the US has been sending billions worth of arm weapons to Taiwan. In 1962, the US sent missiles to Turkey & Italy, and in response, the USSR sent missiles to Cuba, and the Cuban Missile Crisis broke out. World Superpowers never allowed another country sending strategic arm weapons CLOSE to their borders, let alone WITHIN its regions like the US is doing to Taiwan which is WITHIN China. The PRC has been EXTREMELY patient with Taiwan govt: As long as Taiwan doesn’t declare independence, Mainland China has been at peace with it.
10. The PRC makes no secret of the desire for an eventual reunification, but it prefers to do it in a peaceful way. In China’s school text books, Taiwanese are called “compatriots”. Mainland China is Taiwan’s biggest importer of Taiwanese products. There are hundreds of thousands of Taiwanese working in Mainland China. Mainland China has been working on reunification with Taiwan through trades, notably the “Three Direct Links” initiatives. At one stage, under Taiwan leader Ma Ying-Jeou, Mainland and Taiwan were very close. The US noticed that trend and covertly supported the DPP to gain power. The US also orchestrated the Sunflower Student Movement in 2014, to sabotage the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement (CSSTA). Since The US puppet Tsai Ying-Wen came into office, separatism has been the main theme. It’s an open secret that Taiwan is America’s trump card over China when China catches up to the US’ economy, just like how America knocked Japan into 3 decades of stagnancy (Plaza Accord agreements) after Japan’s economy was catching up fast with America. The Anglo-America Empire has been using the “divide-and-conquer” tactics throughout histories. For example, Iran-Iraq, Iran-Saudi, Serbia-Kosovo, Russia-Ukraine, Europe-Russia, India-China, Mainland China-Taiwan, India-Pakistan, Gaddafi-NTC, Maduro-Guaido, Putin-Navalny, Al Assad-The Kurds, Al Bashir-South Sudan and many more. The DPP banned media in Taiwan which favor reunification, and created propagandas against Mainland China so that the young Taiwanese dislike Mainland China. Pelosi visited Taiwan in Aug 2022 against sternest warning from Beijing, to provoke a Chinese civil war, after which Mainland China surrounded Taiwan with battleships. In Apr 2023, McCathy’s acceptance of Tsai’s official visit to the USA, further escalated tension across the straights.
11. The US forced Taiwan to setup a TSMC plant in Arizona, scheduled to complete by 2024. This effectively robbed the crown jewel of Taiwan’s economy, which contributes to over 30% of Taiwan’s GDP. After the completion of the TSMC plant in Arizona, the US could even sabotage TSMC factories in Taiwan, to control world’s chip production, just like how the US sabotaged Nord Stream pipelines to control energy supply to Europe. After which, Taiwan will be even more dependent on agricultural export to China. The US is not helping Taiwan, its only interests are: Selling weapons to Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Australia and getting them to fight a proxy war against China in Taiwan, just like how it’s using EU countries to fight a proxy war against Russia in Ukraine. And to steal TSMC over to the US before Taiwan is destroyed.
Crazy talk. Taiwan is not and has never been part of the PRC. They have no right to invade another foreign country.
The PRC might be recognized as the legal government of China, but Taiwan isn't part of the PRC. PRC is the legitimate government of China, while ROC is the legitimate government of Taiwan.
This is the status quo and the reality, regardless of the propaganda spread by Xi and his CPC goons, or what anyone else says or think. The people of Taiwan live completely free and separate from the PRC.
they won't listen
The passports of Hong Kong and Macau say the People’s Republic of China.
Have you seen the words People’s Republic of China written on the passports of Taiwan?😂😂
Taiwan's passport says TAIWAN😊
@@Wang54321 You failed to understand point 8
In addition, you are talking nonsense. TSMC accounts for 7.3% of Taiwan's GDP. TSMC has a total of more than 30 factories, and Arizona only accounts for one of them! And in the future, its output will only account for less than 5%
In addition, the United States is building a factory at the same time! There are 3 to 4 more advanced factories in Taiwan that are about to be completed
That fake building for military exercises is the state equivalent of a woodoo doll
You should have also mentioned about chinese conflict with India and its willingness to allow bloodshed at Galwan after 40 years of peace. CCP is a dangerous force and cannot be taken lightly keep in mind the same party killed 35 million people under Mao for its own glory.
Were China rational, they would take Afghanistan first. It has a major fraction of the world's reserves of lithium, which Chinese industry needs. There is no other serious military competitor interested in Afghanistan any more. The public can therefore simply be put in camps like the Xinjiang and Tibetan populations already have been - America and Russia did not do this, but it is a strategy that China is already familiar and comfortable with.
Taiwan by contrast is a tiny territory not even connected with China. It is plagued by typhoons and earthquakes, and possesses no natural nor man-made resources that China doesn't already have a lot of. What does China gain if they take Taiwan? Only a strategic military position holding the fulcrum of the first West Pacific island chain, and destruction of the global semiconductor supply chain, which is nearly the only major supply chain sector in the world economy that China does not yet dominate.
The only explanation for why Chinese leaders claim to care so much about Taiwan, is to hurt other countries and to get revenge on the Taiwan population. The revenge is from being embarassed all these years that a small slice of Chinese population has been able to live so much better than them simply by not sharing China's racist and totalitarian ideology.
Have you ever had someone who is offended by your mere existence, who demands you dead or enslaved and will accept no coexistence, and where there is nothing you can do to make them calm down? That is Taiwan's predicament.
@@AsusMemopad-us5lk 国家领土统一
你想知道为什么
就请你问问美国总统林肯
至于你说的集中营那是你们白人的专利
我们中国并没有
We should also be wary of India's ambition to annex Bhutan and Nepal, because they have already annexed Sikkim and now control parts of Bhutan and Nepal.
@@howgorindia could annex Bhutan and nepal anytime in the last 70 years like china did to Tibet but never did so 😊
@@ramk2443ur whole India is protected by gorkhas since it's birth in 1947 and u think u can invade Nepal?Without gorkhas in Frontline there would be no arunanchal and ladakhand Kashmir occupied by India.Also if ur army can u can try to invade Nepal.We like to see ur missiles and tanks .Nepal fought off east India company the superpower of it's time what is India??u think since u r nuclear u can invade and capture Nepal,u can't bcoz u don't know the weight of our blood
PolyMatter: Sponsored by “CHINA” 2:46
Me: WTF
PolyMatter: “-Actually”
Me: 😅
Why is everyone making videos about Taiwan?
The Deep State wants war
It's essentially cold-war 2 propaganda. This type of stuff was being fed to the public constantly about the soviets before the 90s.
Double standard that anything China does is not a threat, and they're not responsible for escalation.
But everything anyone else does is a threat and escalation is totally the other people's fault. "Doing more harm than good."
This is a very interesting and thought-provoking video about the possible scenarios of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. I appreciate the analysis and insights from the experts and commentators, as well as the historical and geopolitical context provided by the video. I think this is a very important and complex issue that affects not only the people of Taiwan and China, but also the regional and global stability and security. I hope that the tensions can be resolved peacefully and diplomatically, and that the rights and interests of all parties can be respected and protected. I also hope that the international community can play a constructive role in supporting dialogue and cooperation, and preventing conflict and violence. Thank you for making this video and sharing it with us. 👍🏻😊
no international can decide China's boarder and land
@@lxue5518 Lol you're replying to a banal and probably AI-generated comment. He's just advertising his channel.
I hope the war never happens.
Whatever logic you want to argue on how difficult it is to invade Taiwan, one thing is true. Any country can only wage a war when they have more young people in the age group 15-35. If a country wages a war when they don't have demographics on their side then that country will die within 100 years provided there is no immigration. Ask any German who lived through 1960's and 1970's how many young men they saw on streets, they will tell you. Russia still has not recovered from WW2 with more women in their country than men. With Ukraine war it is only going to get worse. With China their window of opportunity is open until 2030. They already have population decline and it is only going to get worse in the coming years. And Xi Jinping is in a hurry as he knows he can't sit on the throne forever and keep saying same old phrase of "peaceful reunification" at every party Congress. I don't think he will easily get a 4th term without something moving in the direction of taking over Taiwan. This decade didn't start off well for the world with COVID and I am damn sure China will not allow it to end without an attempt at taking over Taiwan.
Americans, who know little about Taiwan, seem to forget that a Declaration of Independence requires a constitutional amendment and referendum. Taiwan would not quickly declare independence, it’d be a slow process. Arguably, the PRC isn’t the only thing preventing a deceleration of independence.
The only two forces preventing full institutionalisation of Taiwanese republic are CCP (with military force) and their local lackeys KMT (with political force). KMT would sell their own family for Chinese money.
I doubt Taiwan would be able to declare independence easily. Not with the Kuomintang sitting in the Legislative Yuan and wanting the Republic of China to continue existing & maintaining status quo.
China is in a tough spot, which by association, puts us all in a tough spot. China needs to speed up its timeline for retaking Taiwan, because of their upcoming population bubble. Conversely, they’re not in the best position to invade: their only domestic-built aircraft carrier isn’t operational, they lack higher-ranked experience with command and control, and they have never been involved in any conflict, meaning their doctrine has never been tested.
Correction: they have, just not at scale or not recently
It's also important to mention that Taiwan's population is also falling off a cliff. With both countries facing population decline, it's just a struggle of who can handle the issue better.
If there are currently 1.4 billion people in China's current territory, then they can absorb a lot of "population collapse" before it becomes a problem. For example their population can shrink by 95% before they even reach the current population density of Russia, and Russia is a powerful country. Shrink by 97% and China might reach the population density of Australia - but Australia too is a country well able to stand up for itself on the global stage.
China's population has room to "free fall" for centuries before that situation would arrive - and in the current world environment, their neighbours are collapsing even faster, so there is still nothing for them to worry about.
你说的对 中国并没有进行过战争中国是个爱好和平的国家
美国一直在侵略别的国家
中国和美国谁是邪恶的国家？？
@@AsusMemopad-us5lk what you said only makes sense if the population reduces uniformly and the whole society executes a “planned retreat” in a super organised fashion.
The reality is the society is aging, there aren’t enough young people. The portion of low-productivity capital-hogging population (old people) becomes higher and higher, and it makes a reboot harder and harder. Staffing becomes harder because there are less working age ppl, more resources are consumed towards aged care, reinvestment is harder as most capital would be held by the ever greater proportion of population, who aren’t as interested in spending or investing. None of this helps promote having kids for the young people; and given its a authoritarian xenophobic state, it’s not exactly attractive to migrants either.
It’s a long dark downward spiral.
The country who has dealt with similar issue the best so far was Japan. But Japan has its ‘sponsor’, it has its excellent image, it has high tech and reputation of quality, it has excellent quality of life. But even Japan, it has stagnated for three decades now with no clear end in sight.
China is doomed. (Unless a few extremely major changes happen or are forced upon them)
About the possibility of the dam being a target for missiles, concrete dams work just by being really heavy and impervious to water. Assuming the dam was built to its specifications, you can fire Taiwan's entire missile arsenal at it within 24 hours, and then repeat this for _10 years_ by conjuring missiles out of nowhere and it would still be fine. This is assuming of course no one cut corners on construction (I seem to remember China's own missile silos allegedly not being able to open their own doors, so who knows what corners were cut on other infrastructure projects).
I never seize to amaze at Americans double standard. I hope China will fight for Taiwan as hard, at Abraham Lincolnb and US fought for secession states. And I also hope, as Russian, that Russia will help China.
but US must "spread" democracy by taking them out.
"Nuh uh"
russia is in a stalemate with a second world country armed with western hand me downs wtf can they do against usa
The problem is that the People's Republic of China (ruled by communists) is a genocidal-racist slave state compared to Republic of China.
The CCP has spent trillions of dollars preparing for a war with Taiwan and the West, with a military build up exceeding the Nazi level build up that preceded WWII. China was in no danger of being invaded by any of its neighbors when it began this build up, which means its purpose is invasion of its neighbors. Its belligerence has sacrificed its future economy with its largest customers, with decoupling the result. For the CCP, the economic progress and success of the Chinese is a distant priority to the CCP's continued holding of power.
The CCP's preparations will culminate in the next 12 to 18 months, at which time war becomes inevitable. Authoritarians don't spend trillions of dollars preparing for war, and then don't go to war.
The US spends more on its military every year than China and Russia combined. That is reason enough for China to increase its spending when they have the prosperity to do it. Remember that China is encircled by American military bases and allies. Most of the rhetoric coming from Beijing is just for local consumption. War with the US and coalition of the willing would be suicide for the PLA. Xi would never risk that over Taiwan.
That being said, leaders often make stupid choices - like the Japanese attacking US in WW2, US invading Afghanistan, Russia in the Ukraine.
@@sommmeguy Last time I checked uhhh China is encircled by uhh mongolia, russia, india and kazakhstan.
@@workoutandread Okinawa, Pyeongtaek (SK), Manila, Australia. Also, Guam.
The news media needs to stop being so alarmist.
all depends on how the China-US economy stalemate plays out. if you keep on closing the gap between you and your opponent in economy and military as it has been for the past decade, time is always on your side. however, whether China can keep this trend or not has its uncertainties.
that points to the statement at 6:31 being wrong. China's best hope is keep acquiring more substantial military assets than the US with military expenditure at lower % of GDP thanks to higher purchasing parity and closing tech gap. As long as it continues, the US will have to provoke really hard for a war or face the inevitable inability to defend Taiwan.
From some recent interview to China citizens, reunification war is hugely unpopular because most of citizens don't believe that they need a war between two Han races for that. So if they need to do a war, they have to do it very fast before civilians responded.
It doesn't matter. The government will do anything they want to do regardless of what civilians think. Most of us hated the zero covid policy but they still tortured us for three years and killed many people including children. And I feel most people detest President Xi but you could not stop him to change the constitution and make him a life-long emperor. Another example is the one-child policy that lasted for decades that they killed some second already-born kids brutally. That said they will try them best to let us think that Taiwanese are Taidu(like Nazi) and we need to liberlize them. Russian civilians are less brainwashed and their internet is much freer but civilians's response is still not stopping Putin. So I'm not very optimistic about it.
If they don't do it soon they never will.
I have half Chinese blood in me, but i don't consider China as my homeland at all. My homeland, my citizenship is the country where I'm born from. Not the country where my race are from.
"tell that to the Covenant", to quote Sergeant Johnson, UNSC Marine, Halo
You are lost, don’t hate your mother like that
@@jerry19484My great-great-great grandfather was German. Am I German?
You can be proud of being Chinese but you don't have to support the CCP.
@@chaosXP3RT slightly. Your sense of identity should match proportionally. If it doesn't, you're coping somewhere
Do you really understand this period of Chinese history?
In 1895, the Qing Dynasty was forced to sign the Treaty of Shimonoseki and cede Taiwan Province to Japan.
In 1912, the Republic of China replaced the Qing Dynasty (the regime fell, and ROC inherited everything from the Qing Dynasty, including Taiwan Province, which the Qing government was forced to cede to Japan).
After Japan's defeat in World War II, the territories plundered and colonized by Japan before were returned to all countries. In 1945, the Republic of China took back Taiwan Province, which was forced to cede to Japan in 1895. This is also the origin of why Taiwan is now called the "Republic of China". At this time, Taiwan is only a province under ROC. Afterwards, there was a civil war between the two political parties in China (the civil war between the Kuomintang and the Communist Party). The Communist Party took control of the mainland, and the Kuomintang was defeated and fled to Taiwan Province.
By 1949, with the support of most Chinese people, the PRC was established in the mainland and replaced the ROC (the regime fell, and the PRC inherited all of the ROC, including Taiwan Province. Just like the ROC inherited the Qing Dynasty). But there is no denying the fact that the former government that fled to Taiwan Province was in power on the island under the banner of ROC. At this time, China formed two governments: the former government and the new government. Those who support independence in Taiwan will confuse the situation by describing it as two countries, often confusing sovereignty and governance rights. So far, the territorial scope of the two constitutions are intertwined.
In 1971, United Nations Resolution 2758 restored the People's Republic of China's seat in the United Nations representing China. So far, the PRC government has received international recognition and has become the only legitimate government of China. After that, Chiang Kai-shek and the subsequent illegal former governments continued to be in power in Taiwan Province under the banner of ROC to this day. To be precise, they are still in a state of civil war.
Some time after that, they also threatened to counterattack the mainland. At that time, their economy was much better than that of the mainland and they had strength. But now mainland China is the second most powerful country in the world, and the strength gap between the two sides is huge. They knew there was no hope of counterattack. The political interests of those in power would be shaken if they were unified. It's like asking Elon Musk to give up being the CEO of Tesla and become a car mechanic. Who would be willing to do that? ? Therefore, politicians all advocate Taiwan independence. They revise and delete Chinese history in their education system. And educate Taiwanese youth so that their subconscious minds think that Taiwan is a country. Is this considered brainwashing? ? ?
Why a country would invade other country in 21st century? Is China going to disappear from the map because of Taiwan or what? They can't exist without invading someone? Pls explain it to me I can't just get it.
1)The video overlooks a significant portion of the Taiwanese population that advocates for immediate reunification. Several political parties, including the KMT, have incorporated this goal into their charters.
2)The video fails to mention Taiwan's previous desire for reunification. Some in Taiwan changed their stance after recognizing China's growing strength, believing that if China remained weaker, Taiwan would not have pursued independence.
3)The video neglects to highlight Taiwan's constitution, which clearly states that both the mainland and Taiwan are parts of China. This implies that Taiwan's push for independence goes against its constitution. The DPP has contemplated this move but has hesitated, likely due to its implications.
4)The video omits the fact that the international community, including the US, does not officially recognize Taiwan as a sovereign nation. The US's stance isn't necessarily grounded in fairness but could be a strategic move to counterbalance China's influence. Without Taiwan as a buffer, China's growth might have been even more rapid, challenging the US's global position.
Per a survey conducted in July, 2022... 1.3% of Taiwanese want immediate unification with the mainland. Another 5% want the status quo and a move toward unification. In comparison, 5% want immediate independence and 25% want to maintain the status quo and a move toward independence. And the KMT absolutely does not advocate unification. They firmly advocate the status quo, viewing both independence and unification as a negative. So... Bullet point number one is just blatantly false.
Taiwan did have a brief flirtation with unification, but it was never very strong. It peaks at around maybe 20% advocating unification. But China's brutal treatment of Hong Kong showed them that Beijing's word cannot be trusted and the popularity of that idea dropped like a lead anchor.
The constitution states that there is only one China and it is headed in Taiwan and that the People's Republic of China is an illegitimate state. That doesn't mean the people of Taiwan have any desire to become part of the PRC.
The US doesn't recognize Taiwan, correct. Yet the US pumps weapons into Taiwan and has legal documents that obligate it to defend Taiwan from any aggression. And no, Taiwan is not buffering China's growth. Taiwan is tiny. They are not a major threat to China. China was never going to take the US's position in the world.
@@jarynn8156 First off, the data you're referencing is current, not from when everything actually went down in 1949. The context of that time is super important in determining whether something was right or wrong. For instance, if you swipe someone's stuff, it doesn't magically become yours two decades later. Back in '49, both the Communist Party (CPC) and the Kuomintang (KMT) viewed mainland China and Taiwan as part of the same nation. So, even then, Taiwan was seen as a piece of China.
Also, for decades, Taiwan has been aiming to retake the mainland. So, there's been a longstanding push for unification.
Looking at Taiwan's constitution, even though it refers to the ROC, it still sees the mainland and Taiwan as one united entity. They're viewed as inseparable.
Lastly, the U.S. labels Taiwan as this unsinkable aircraft carrier. We've got this well-known strategy where we use Taiwan to counterbalance China. It's no secret: the U.S. is aware of it, China gets it, the U.S. knows China gets it, and vice versa. Seems like you might be the last to catch on.
Very interesting how the interests of a 'significant portion of the population' suddenly doesn't matter when _you_ don't agree with it. Now you've shifted the goal post and it's a matter of what you _personally_ think is right and wrong - based on what people thought in 1949 and during the martial law years? No, don't act like that 'context' has any relevance in 2023. It's just you using outdated data to justify your interests. @@useranonymous2369
I really like all Chinese (from mainland and Taiwan), and hope they can get level headed and resolve their issues peacefully.
In theory, it's easy. All they have to do is agree on something and stick to it. In reality, neither side wants to make concessions they don't have to make it, and there can be no trust.
Many Taiwan people don't think of themself as Chinese. part of the reason is the autocracy CCP government and their rudely policy, part of the reason is the taiwan people Stockholm Syndrome miss miss the Japanese days
@@长弓洪丰是这样吗？大多数台湾人是承认自己是华人的。只不过英文上的chinese泛指中华人民共和国的公民。
这就好比二战时你如何在英文里区别纳粹德国公民和德意志人？
@@长弓洪丰 least offensive nationalist bot comment
Tyranny and level headedness do not go hand in hand. Nobody can make peace with a tyrant like the CCP
For military reasons I don't believe that China will just decide to invade Taiwan. It would not be easy as Taiwan has spent many years setting up defenses. China knows that in order to invade Taiwan they will have to defeat the western naval and air forces in the China seas. They will have to do this first as they would not want to open up two fronts. If they are successful in achieving this goal they would not immediately invade Taiwan. They would throw up a sea and air blockade around Taiwan for a long period of time. They could take Taiwan without an invasion.
You two idiots are so funny, if the Chinese government and people decide to use force, who would dare to interfere? What's more, this is a civil war between "two Chinas". Their civil war is not over yet. Learn more about Chinese history. If the United States dares to intervene, it will be an "invasion" of China. what do you think? Are the Chinese afraid of war? Decades ago, they had nothing and dared to fight the West led by the United States with broken guns in the Korean War. At that time, the West had everything, and it couldn't beat China! ! ! What do they have now Do you think he is weaker than Russia? 😂😂😂, the so-called war experience is just a fantasy. In the 21st century, with the help of science and technology, there is nothing that humans cannot do. . . A big country with a population of 1.4 billion+! The world's largest industrial capabilities, nuclear weapons, warships, aircraft carriers, atomic bombs, nuclear submarines, fifth-generation fighters, space stations, landing on the moon, actually landing on Mars (currently only the United States and China have achieved it), and the Beidou system (no worse than the GPS system). . . . what do they have Randomly mobilize an army of tens of millions or even hundreds of millions. All kinds of weapons will be produced like an assembly line, just like the current "world factory" production. Tens of millions, hundreds of millions of Chinese troops are fighting with these weapons, and Superman, the United States, and Spiderman in Marvel are all afraid! !
Taiwan is not a country, Taiwan's real name is Republic of China. Taiwan is only a province of it. Do not fooled by this propaganda.PRC and ROC are at civil war. There is no peace agreement from both side. There is no "invade" at all. Just like the US can not invade the texas.
@cf-yg4bdIf China's military success depends on it preemptively striking US ships and bases, then I would say this conflict won't happen. Can you imagine the big trouble the Chinese would put themselves in by doing this? It would be Pearl Harbor 2.0.
Not only that, it would also mean war with other countries, since the US bases are located in countries like Japan and the Phillipines. This action by China would trigger a massive response from the US and allies, not only military but also politically.
China would face isolation from important countries, which are American allies, because such action by China would give the US officials all the excuse/justification they need to not only put all of its military might against China, but also to convince their allies to go against China. What are you thoughts??
0:54 I was about to say that it reminded me of Kijong-dong...
Fun fact. I'm from Germany and I work for the Brüggen company. Anything coming from Trader Joe's which contains cereals is actually produced by us. According to what I heard they don't do anything by themselves just let others produce
This is what you call "climbing up the supply chain". I'm failing to see any connection between your comment and the context though.
@@wenyichen5515 They said no Trader Joe's in sight at the start 🌚 I don't know if they have stores or so it's not a German brand but yeah I see these packages every day at work
@@hansudowolfrahm4856 Yeah it’s just a store for groceries, I don’t think they produce anything themselves.
This certainly sounds good too, but I think its still worth considering more reliable options like traditional businesses such as cannafarm ltd, for example.
I'm irish I know the feeling the feeling of your country not being whole and the shameful practically melancholy feelings you can have towards it, Tiawan and China situation really confuses me I don't get why they're feeling are this strong
Because Taiwan used to be an inherent territory of China, but after it was occupied by Japan, it never returned due to various reasons of World War II, so now there are various disputes. In fact, it is also the reason for the competition between China and the United States.
Okay but its an insane shame that the phrase "dare to fight" has such a negative association to it because holy hell thats a raw line
Thing is, the more China raises pressure, the less attractive Taiwan will be for investment. The more critical industries will be pulled out of Taiwan - and young educated Taiwanese are following.. until there are only those left who won't make a stance against "reunification".
It's kinda like a guy glaring at another guy and putting both of his fists up to roll them around like a boxer
And the saddest thing is the vast majority of America literally won't care because our politics are only concerned with the most impossibly vain unimportant dribble baby shit possible.
Gotta keep them blabbering about skin color and sexual preferences.
I paid for a year subscription to Nebula but the user interface is terrible and Nebula has no public chat feature for for user discord, it doesn't even have a basic like or dislike button. I loved the idea of supporting a platform made by and for creators but Nebula has forgotten that creators are just one side of a coin, on the other side are the users who also need support and recognition which creates the community needed for Nebula's success. As Nebula is right now, I can't recommend it and I will most likely cancel my subscription. Love your videos though.
Can't we just be friends
The PRC doesn't have friends.
Spoken like a true armchair analyst
How specifically so?
This guy literally just said "no" and didn't elaborate why. You just disagreed and you don't even know why, no counterarguments, nothing. Who's the armchair analyst now?
Sure Wumao
It doesn't matter it they will or won't. We have to act like they will, otherwise we will become so weak that it will happen.
You need to stop pretending being a peace maker. The US had and continues to have full initiative on TW issue and kept causing troubles all over the years. At the same time you treat us as invaders? What hypocrite!
So, no mention of the decades long Civil War? The fact that the Chinese Republic once ruled the mainland? The fact that Chaing, who ruled on Taiwan for decades, never gave up on returning to the mainland even on his deathbed? The fact that 2 million people crossed the strait when the Republic failed? The fact that the PRC side had actually attempted to cross the strait but failed and met a US naval intervention. There's a reason the "reunification" has been consistent between every leader. To them, the war with the Republic isn't over, and the Americans are in the way. I don't support the war, but I can see why it's going to happen.
Also, they can't possibly change their tone. To do so would be to agree to lose all possibility of regaining the island territory. The pressure the US is putting on them to accept Taiwan as China but separate from China is the exact same strategy the Soviet Union used against the Republic early on following the 1911 revolution with Mongolia. That Mongolia would be China but independent within China. That was until the Soviets just took the opportunity to roll their troops in and defend Mongolian independence. Not because they thought Mongolia deserved it, which they do. But because it was in their best interest to have a buffer state between them under their control. And supposedly, in exchange for recognizing Mongolia, the Republic was given the promise that the Soviets would at least not aid the CCP in the Civil War. Which, of course, they did anyway. So they know what will happen if they casually accept those terms. They will lose the island. And they will totally lose control of the seas around them that they depend on. The economic pressure will also not end. If it was chess, they would be checked pretty hard. And sure, iyou want them to lose, you can argue it's a good thing. But they want to win this competition, so they will push back where they can.
awww man nebula grrrrr 😭😭😭 ill guess i have to sub eventually lmao
As a Taiwanese, this is the most accurate and well summed video of this issue I have seen. Very informative and comprehensive.
Correct mistakes: this is a civil war between Chinese Mainland and Taiwan, China. So there is no claim of invasion. Both sides are separatist regimes, and whoever wins will inherit the Chinese orthodoxy.
The video seems to only once again shown KMT are traitors of Taiwan.
Fun fact: The Taiwanese island of Kinmen is only about 3 km from mainland China. If Taiwan comes under the US dominance, this would mean that the US could put a base with nuclear weapons 3 km from mainland China. Remember what happened when the Russians wanted to put nukes in Cuba (as a result of the US putting nukes in Turkey), and imagine what would likely happen if the Chinese wanted to put their nukes in Mexico. When the Solomon Islands (~2,000 km away from Australia), entered a security policing agreement with China, the Australian media went totally ballistic about China "threat".
No
@@robbykurnia9671 Yes
@@befeleme obviously you do not understand the origin of the conflict
@@robbykurnia9671 Obviously, you have no idea what you are talking about.
Taiwan is independent
0:01: 🔍 China's military base in Inner Mongolia features a replica of Taiwan's Presidential Office Building, raising concerns of an invasion.
3:38: 🔍 China's growing military strength and assertiveness towards Taiwan raises concerns about the possibility of war.
7:17: 🇹🇼 The relationship between Taiwan and China has fluctuated based on the ruling political party in Taiwan, with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leading to increased tension and the Kuomintang (KMT) promoting engagement.
10:15: 🤔 China's position on Taiwan is ambiguous, with indications of both peaceful unification and a willingness to fight.
14:04: 💥 The military's mission is to prepare for every contingency, even unlikely ones, but the problem arises when this mindset escapes the Pentagon and warnings lose their institutional context, carrying undue credibility.
17:14: 🇹🇼 China aims to slowly wear down Taiwan's will to resist through uncertainty and insecurity, while America's pessimism risks doing China's work for it.
Recap by Tammy AI
These are all good times for Poly ''The Recycler'' to sell his nebula bs.
Please pay more attention to Scotland and Catalonia, we are the ones who really need independence, we are oppressed.
They don't even want to talk about you.😅
Guess why they don't talk about these, do you think they really care about Taiwan's independence?
Actually Scotland had a referendum and voted to remain within the UK in 2014. Shame that that's a foreign concept to communists
@@belnonaodh1520 Oh yeah? Like how the UK supreme court just determined that any further Scottish independence referendum will be "illegal" in 2022 because they KNEW the Scottish will succeed next time?
china red dragon year is 2024 :) that's when they attack.
Sure about that? Lol
You are obsessed with china I don’t know any other RUclips channel with this much obsession 😅 btw your content is amazing ❤❤