EARLY 2024 Oscar Predictions | March 2023
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 7 фев 2025
- We're back after a long hiatus. It's a new year with a new Scorsese, Nolan, Gerwig, and many more of your fav moviemaking friends.
Cole's music:
Spotify: open.spotify.c...
Apple Music: / high-voltage-jamboree
TWITTER:
/ expert_oscar
/ withbrotherbro
PATREON (bonus content + support the channel!)
/ theoscarexpert
LETTERBOXD:
letterboxd.com...
letterboxd.com...
DISCORD:
/ discord
The fact that we have films coming from Nolan, Scorsese, Fincher, Gerwig, and Villeneuve is nuts
Best director is gonna be a blood bath also miyozaki has a new film too
And probably only one of those names is getting into best director - Scorsese
In order of likelihood - Scorsese, Gerwig, Denis V, Nolan, Fincher
Last year we had movies from Spielberg, Cameron, Aronofsky, Eggars and Chazelle to look forward to. It's not that nuts
@@nms7872 yes only marty is safe both nolan and Denis could miss easily
Not to mention Scott, Miyazaki, Cooper, Aster, and two from Anderson
It is worth noting that we have had at least 1 non-English language film nominated for Best Picture for the last 5 years in a row (ROMA in 2018, PARASITE in 2019, MINARI in 2020, DRIVE MY CAR in 2021, and ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT in 2022). I suspect the streak will continue this year.
I agree! I just don't have enough of a strong feeling about one yet to call it.
I got to the end of the video. Two things: their top pick for foreign language film was About Dry Grass (or On Barren Weeds, as it might be called) which would also be my suggestion. They also said Drive My Car blew the doors open-because Roma is Cauron, well known, amazing trailer, and Minari is kind of in English really, and, hey, I finally saw All Quiet on the Western Front this week, and it was an English dub.
Will as quiet a foreign film as Drive My Car get nominated again? That is still exceptional. Drive My Car has a transcendent ending, followed by a pandemic present moment coda-the kind of effect that any filmmaker would like to pull off. I think that’s kind of what the Oscar experts are saying in shorthand when they say that even a master auteur like Ceylan has to produce his best movie to have a chance of Best Picture. All of his last three are great, so the criterion is something really outstanding,, like delivering the feeling of the last act of Drive My Car.
Glazer movie in English or German?
@@TheOscarExpert Cannes will give us a much better lay of the land for foreign this year
I don't know if a foreign film will get into Best picture category next year. They might replace it with a blockbuster movie like Barbie or Spiderman across the Spiderverse or if Elemental is spectacular, they might nominate an animation movie in the 10th spot.
Real interesting supporting cast for Oppenheimer; I didn't know so many The Color Purple actors and actresses were also going to be in that one too😛
"Must be a double feature."
Fantasia has incredible range!
Ha ha Warner Bros.
Suddenly the whitest cast of the year is looking a bit more diverse…
Haha it was an error, yeah
The Oscar Expert is the only person who will say “The movie is good. That’s what I was worried about”
These 2 love every movie they see. It's annoying.
They did this in March 2023 and 6 of their top 10 pics are in best picture, that's pretty impressive.
The video everyone waits all year more than the oscar itself
Really hoping that between How Do You Live? and Spiderverse, we get *something* animation-related going this year in the Oscar conversation.
Yeah and there could be other contenders like Super Mario, Chicken Run 2 and Elemental so who knows what happens + there is a beautiful looking new chinese movie called "Deep Sea" but I guess that one will go under the radar..
@@brijanwilson1888 SUPER MARIO
Agree.
I still find it strange that GDT's Pinnochio was so acclaimed, had Netflix backing it, and had an Oscar favorite right there in the title and it still only got into one category.
@@benjamintillema3572 Let's see what Chicken Run 2 from netflix can do this year but it'll probably get just one nominee too
Was the miyosaki movie
Miyazaki getting a best director nomination for his final film would be beautiful
Imagine if he won picture director and animated feature
Last year was my first full awards season following you guys and I had so much fun following the whole year. Hoping for a great year for movies this year 🎉
I remember that feeling. This is a fun ride!
Same here and now I’m obsessed with them and guild awards now lol
I would argue that the following could have a shot too:
- True Love (Gareth Edwards)
- Civil War (Alex Garland)
- The Bastard (Nikolaj Arcel)
- Wizards! (David Michôd)
- Hitman (Richard Linklater)
- The Royal Hotel (Kitty Green)
and just for fun I could throw "Chicken Run 2" in there too because who knows lol
D A W N O F T H E N U G G E T
I love watching these videos right after the Oscars just happened.
Barbie is definitely the biggest wildcard of the year. If it's as good as Lady Bird & Little Women, then it could absolutely be a Best Picture nominee.
The test screenings from the film were all overwhelmingly positive and it is anticipated to be a blockbuster. MATTEL CEO called it a cultural phenomenon last year in an interview.
It must be so good to be a box office hit in the first place with that 100 million dollar budget.
And everyone in the cast when asked about it immediately calls it the best script they've ever read - I think this could be HUGE
I can see it being a lock for production design, costume design, makeup and hairstyling nominations. If all goes well, then it could also get noms for picture, adapted screenplay, and possibly even best actress🤷🏽♂️
@@davidmitchell-baker1701 I’m not sure I take things like that to heart, what is the cast supposed to say about a movie they’re in that’s about to be released? “oh yeah, the script is shite”
This is literally the first time I’m learning that And and Poor Things are different movies. I thought he just changed the name because of Google showing the same synopsis and cast on both movies.
One of my favourite things about these early predictions for next year is the feeling of not knowing that a year from now who will be new Oscar winners. If you told me 13 months ago that Michelle Yeoh, Brendan Fraser, Jamie Lee Curtis and Ke Hey Quan aka Short Round were the acting quartet, I wouldn’t have believed you.
Always fun to go back a year later. The Zone of Interest was power ranked at 32, yet likely finished Top 5 in BP! You just never know.
Watching this back in January 2024 is pretty hilarious. The confidence in the color purple verses the lack of confidence in Oppenheimer. Oh man good stuff
I love your discussion about How Do You Live. It would be amazing if some of that push for animation to be more accepted critically and for Miyazaki to be celebrated with a Best Director nomination. Tonally it sounds like it might be more like The Wind Rises than Spirited Away but hopefully it has something of the magic of both and enough of its own uniqueness to dazzle. But we will see. I'm sure it will be absolutely full of heart and wonder.
One thing I wanna mention: I’m really hoping that Suzume no Tojimari and Makoto Shinkai will finally get their nomination for animated feature. It’s really weird that both Kimi no na wa and Tenki no ko got snubbed from the list. And I know that JP animation movies is a bit hard to get into the nomination shortlist unless if they come from a certain animation studio, but I’m just really hoping he could get nominated next year
I can see it being nominated if Best Animated Film this year is slimmer than most years. If reviews go over well for these movies, I can see Super Mario Bros., Elemental, Wish, Chicken Run 2, The Monkey King, How Do You Live, and ESPECIALLY Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse being strong nomination contenders as well.
Kimi no Nawa leans too much into romantic genre and has many plotholes. Meanwhile the recents Shinkai's is too enthusiastic to replicate Kimi No Nawa. So big no
Sadly, because Miyazaki is making a comeback this year I have a feeling Shinkai is going to be forgotten again.
Suzume is weird because its been out in Japan since last summer and only coming out in April. Idk how release dates work with the Best Animation category.
@@nwworrior28 I think there are special rules in regards to foreign animation.
You guys are pros man! Predicting 6 within your top 10, 7 within your 20 and also name checking the zone of interest in your 30s! Incredible
I read an early draft of the Air script and its definitely gonna be a crowd pleaser. I feel like if it does well at the box office and keeps momentum, we could see an acting nom and potential for picture
A bunch of reviews are already out since its SXSW premiere and they are all positive.
I have a fun little stat. Alexander Payne movies win screenplay if it's not filmed in Nebraska. He won for sideways, filmed in California and the decendants, filmed in Hawaii. From what I read, the holdovers is being filmed in Boston. So the holdovers could win because of this stat.
the thing the movie isn't written by the director and the academy lately is favoring directors who writes their own screenplays
🙃
Best Director: Hayao Miyazaki -How do you live?
Best actor: Colman Domingo- Rust
Best Actress: Fantasia - The Purple Color
Best Supporting actor: -Austin Butler -Dune Part II
Best Supporting Actress: Lily Glandstone -Killers of the flower moon
Hahaha
I'd love to see Scorsese win Best Picture and Director because he's directed some of my favorite movies of all time like Raging Bull, The Aviator and GoodFellas.
Only one win for Best Director feels wrong doesn't it?
This is off-topic, but if Beau is Afraid isn't fully horror I can hope to see some nominations
The Iron Claw is not as much of a Foxcatcher vibe as you think. It's WWE wrestling, not Foxcatcher wrestling. Also, the Von Erich's all died very young and tragically except for one member who is being played by Zac Efron. I definitely think it could be a sleeper hit. Could get some acting noms, but probably not a best picture.
Going 6/10 in Best Picture is pretty damn impressive. Even the other 4 are totally understandable predictions… Dune got pushed due to the strike. The Color Purple, Saltburn, and Air were like #11-#15 range. Only whiff imo was Dumb Money lol
Don’t forget, Colman and Buckley are coming with their new film ‘Wicked Little Letters’.
Have you guys considered releasing these as podcast? As someone who listens to your videos while multitasking I think it would totally fit
what is the difference between listening to a podcast and listening on youtube?
@@eternalmusic2736 podcast works better when not connected to WiFi.
54:16 - 55:08
The tale of the Von Erich family is one of the biggest tragedies in the history of professional wrestling. The story that surrounds them is that nearly every member of their family that was directly involved with professional wrestling died, whether it be from drug use or physical injuries or even suicide. The jarringly connected nature of these deaths have led many wrestling historians to refer to the family’s traumatic history as "The Von Erich Family Curse". Zac Efron plays Kevin Von Erich, the last surviving member of the original Von Erich wrestling family.
I feel like we’re overlooking Richard Linklater’s next movie Hitman which sounds very different from any other movie he’s made but I feel like it’ll surprise people. I’m definitely looking forward to that one
Next goal wins has been discussed for 2021,2022,2023. Filmed pre pandemic
Somethings not right here
Discourse on taika has changed so much from when this film was announced.
I hope it is great. This is the year of Michael Fassbender's comeback
"Something´s not right here"... yeah, they had to reshoot a large portion of the movie because Armie Hammer´s controversy and they recasted Will Arnett to take over his role.
We're getting to the point where a movie like 'Killers of the Flower Moon' will win because it's such an underdog story BECAUSE it's such an early overdog story.
Past Lives is my current bet for an early-release indie darling being pushed to a Best Picture nomination.
I haven’t seen the movie but considering Parasite and EEAAO, I would bet money Past Lives does well
A24 is absolutely going to push it
Thats impressive you got 6/10 best picture nominees
2024 Oscars
1. Oppenheimer (Universal)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Paramount/Apple)
3. The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
4. Maestro (Netflix)
5. May December (Disney/Hulu?)
6. Dune Part II (Warner Bros)
7. Asteroid City (Focus Features)
8. Past Lives (A24)
9. Poor Things (Searchlight)
10. Saltburn (MGM/Amazon)
Alternate: Napoleon (Apple)
2025 Oscars
1. Megalopolis (Paramount?)
2. Blitz (Apple)
3. The Piano Lesson (Netflix)
4. The Iron Claw (A24)
5. Bob Dylan Biopic (Searchlight)
6. Avatar 3 (Disney)
7. Joker 2 (Warner Bros)
8. Here (Sony)
9. Wicked (Universal)
10. Furiosa (Warner Bros)
Alternate: Back in Black (Focus Features)
Iron Claw will definitely get released this year.
On Wikipedia it says the film didn’t start filming until October 2022. The past A24 projects all got released a year and half after filming started. I’m thinking it could premiere at Sundance or South by Southwest next year. With a March release date like Everything Everywhere.
@@matthewkauerauf1886 It won't have a lengthy post-production. It will be a fall festival film with a Q4 release.
In much the way that Ruben Östlund was recognised for Triangle of Sadness to a larger degree than many expected at this year's Oscars with nominations for Original Screenplay, Directing and Best Picture, I would confidently predict that 2024 will be the year that the Academy recognises Ari Aster with Beau Is Afraid.
LOL
My predicted top 10 in no particular order:
1) Killers of the Flower Moon
2) Oppenheimer
3) Barbie
4) Past Lives
5) How do you live?
6) Spider Man: Across the Spider Verse
7) Saltburn
8) Poor Things
9) Beau is Afraid
10) May December
My 5 runner ups/potentials:
1) The colour purple
2) Asteroid City
3) Dune part 2
4) The Killer
5) Our Apprenticeship
this is the first time i’m hearing about dumb money. it sounds like a fun adam mckay movie, mixing the financial dramedy premise of big short with the stacked cast of don’t look up. fingers crossed that paul dano finally gets a much-deserved nomination
Yeah he get snubbed big time for The Fabelmans and Academy is rude for snubbing him for Love & Mercy.
Emma stone, natalie portman, margot robbie,kate winslet and zendaya for best actress lets gooooo
as someone who has read the book Dune, the second half is what makes the book a masterpiece so with denis i am not afraid
I think it's very important to keep in mind that in every year going back to 2012, there have been at least four films from first time nominees in the Best Picture lineup.
2022: 5/10 (All Quiet, Everything Everywhere, Top Gun, Triangle, Women Talking)
2021: 4/10 (Belfast, CODA, Drive My Car, King Richard)
2020: 7/8 (every movie except Mank)
2019: 5/9 (Ford v Ferrari, Jojo Rabbit, Joker, Marriage Story, Parasite)
2018: 6/8 (Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, A Star is Born)
2017: 5/9 (CMBYN, Get Out, Lady Bird, Shape of Water, Three Billboards)
2016: 7/9 (Arrival, Fences, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight)
2015: 5/8 (The Big Short, Brooklyn, Mad Max, Room, Spotlight)
2014: 6/8 (Boyhood, Grand Budapest, Imitation Game, Selma, Theory of Everything, Whiplash)
2013: 5/9 (12 Years a Slave, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Her)
2012: 3/9 (Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild
2011: 2/9 (The Artist, The Help)
2010: 7/10 (Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids are All Right, The King's Speech, Toy Story 3, Winter's Bone)
2009: 7/10 (The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Precious, Up, Up in the Air)
Only twice since the lineup expanded have we had fewer than four first-timers in the lineup. Of course anything can happen, but I think we should be putting more directors with no Best Picture nominees at least close to the top 10 here. I will say though you guys might've sold me on Barbie and I might have to more seriously consider that one.
Yeah I’m very much playing attention to this.
Every year early predictions usually fail to account for this, but it's also tougher to spot those first time movies early on.
Every winner since 2015 has also been part of this stat
@@TheOscarExpert True, it is always harder to spot those films at the beginning of the year; however, I think trying to find those films from directors who could pop in is a better strategy imo then just going "oh Empire of Light is from Sam Mendes, check".
also from 2008 in exception of birdman all BP winners comes from people who don't have a BP nomination in their belt
Just wanted to point out that even though Bones and All wasn't an awards contender, it's important to remember that Luca Guadanino was also behind Call Me By Your Name... which WAS an awards contender. The man knows how to put together a well constructed film, particularly around romance, which sounds like this is right up that alley. I think the success of it is going to come down to the script and whether its any good. That could kill any chance it has, but I suspect it is probably good. Also, Mike Faist is severely underrated as an actor - I'm actually really excited to see him doing more stuff.
I am curious though, why there was no Wonka on this list? Was that an oversight or do you think it's just not even worth mentioning?
Also I know there's a Bob Dylan biopic in the works, though I'm not sure if it's coming out this year or next. I've been curious about that too.
They talked about Wonka
Agree. Guadagnino is underrated, particularly with reference to people calling his movies baggy or overlong. It’s good that he’s not trying to make ‘an efficient genre piece’, but instead plays out a variety of moods, or gives the supporting characters something to do. So if Challengers is over two hours I think it will have serious scenes even if it’s primarily comic, or whatever.
a24 is bringing out SO many movies this year, I'm curious as to which one they're gonna bring out the big bucks for in terms of campaigning. is there a chance for Beau is Afraid?? I'm so excited already
When you guys were saying Barbie is a guaranteed box-office hit, that gave me a little bit of an In the Heights flashback. Very different movies, I'm just thinking the box office might not be a given just because it's fun. You still need a clear audience, and to me who the audience for this is remains a little unclear, because it's just completely different from anything that's succeeded at the box-office recently.
its for adults/teens but some people probably still think its for kids. it has a lot of anticipation/social media buzz and hype, so i think a lot of ppl will go see it
It’s audience is everyone. Gonna be a smash.
Y'all should have included Terrence Malick's new film 'The Way of the Wind'. It's a historical epic with Ben Kingsley and Mark Rylance. Definitely deserves to be up there
I'm too doubtful that it will actually release this year. It always seems to be a year later than everyone thinks with his films
Malick probably needs another 5 years to edit.
this might be wishful thinking but i think that if dune 2 ist really really good (+box office hit), it can win picture (+director for villeneuve)
it definitely can if it delivers even more than the last one
I really feel like The Super Mario Bros. Movie and Across The Spider-Verse are gonna be the favorite for Best Animated throughout the whole year and end up getting beat by How Do You Live.
I just imagine those Barbie actors talking to their agents like, “Why the fuck would I do Barbie!?!?” And then the second they find out who is writing and directing they just go like, “Oh shit! Fuck it I’m in!”
Also think you are underestimating The Iron Claw. The Von Erich story is some shit. I think it could easily make Best Picture. People don’t realize how interesting and absolutely fucked that story is especially in an industry that did a terrible job protecting the wrestlers. Efron will get a nomination.
Yes! A new video from The Oscar Expert! I love watching you lovely folks talk about the Oscars. It was really amazing to see "Everything Everywhere All at Once" win "Best Picture" this year! Keep it up with the great work. 😎❤️👏🏾
Nightbitch was my favorite book I read last year and I'm so excited for the adaptation! SO looking forward to Amy Adams turning into a dog and I'm very curious how they're going to do it / what they are going to do exactly! Also looking forward to Poor Things. I still can't believe that's being adapted!
Saltburn and May December sound great, too!
Any Adam’s Oscar
@Gabriel Castaneda Right?! That's what _I'm_ saying! The potential is definitely there with the role alone! but things have to be played right in terms of its release and any campaigning, and not get lost among other contenders.
I hope Barbie lands. Greta and Noah accepting an Oscar together would be an amazing Oscar moment
I saw Air at an early screening and it had great energy and vibes. The acting and directing is solid. Chris Tucker will be in the convo
Chris Tucker? Interesting. Does Viola Davis do enough to get a nom?
@@seankoontz4235 I think she does, but it’s a lot of phone acting. Most of the movie is actors talking into a telephone, brilliantly, but still
Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon and Dune: Part Two will be nominated for best picture. Beau is Afraid might be able to sneak in given Joaquin Phoenix’s performance. Next Goal Wins has a chance since Taika Waititi’s last film Jojo Rabbit was already nominated. The Killer from David Fincher releases in November, definitely a strong possibility after Mank, 3 years ago. Everything else is TBD right now. Maybe MAYBE MI: Dead Reckoning gets in as a technical entry, although Dune: Part Two will most likely have a strong hold after winning 6 Oscars last time in those categories.
Keep an eye out for Poland's animated feature "The Peasants'" made by the director of "Loving Vincent" in the same style but with Polish folklore instead. Not a best picture contender for sure, but if it submitted as international, I'd watch out for animated feature category.
Cobweb should be on the list. It is from the director of I Saw The Devil and it stars Song Kang Ho as a 70s film director who tries to shoot a perfect ending for a film. It may go to Cannes and the subject is kind of Oscar-baity
I literally got 70% scores on Gold Derby for anything that happened before Christmas without having seen any of the movies.
I love how many times they change clothes this needs a best editing nom
THE ZONE OF INTEREST AT 32 LOL
Taraji P. Henson, Danielle Brooks, Colman Domingo, Corey Hawkins, H.E.R., Halle Bailey and Ciara in Oppenheimer - updating my predictions now ;-)
Is it sad that now a days I look forward to the long months of predictions than the actual build up to Oscar night once the nominations have been announced? Love that you put it out this early!! ❤
Barbie for production design FOR SURE.
before even watching this video…
4 of the top 10 predictions will actually get nominated. The other 6 will miss this year or bomb with critics. 3 movies in the 11-20 range will get nominated, and the other 3 will come out of nowhere (and one of them will be a bafta save like all quiet)
True
ok, so 6/10. not too shabby boys lol
plus 2 more in the top 32, with the outliers being anatomy of a fall and american fiction, the 2 unexpected films that got in off of festival hype and momentum
Wouldn't be a surprise if How Do You Live? turn out as a masterpiece. Then having enough buzz for honoring Miyazaki's, and a momentum from Guillermo's push last year calling "animation is cinema", then who knows maybe it could get Picture, Director and Screenplay. Maybe even break history as the first to win the big prizes!
Man, I WANT Miyazaki in Director! I want it SO BAD! But I just don't think it'll happen because of the Academy's animation bias. Now if there is one director that can break that, it's Miyazaki, but I don't know if it will be THAT GOOD.
I'm putting my money on Ant Man 3, clearly the masterpiece of a generation
Same.
"Cinema" is not enough to describe it, it needs "it was in a cinema".
I’m also interested in what Gareth Edwards is doing with TRUE LOVE - I could see a cinematography nomination for Greig Fraser
I'm rooting for Christopher Abbott, Ramy Youssef and Jarrod Carmichael to get nominated
Margot Robbie basically bombed last year I just wish she redeem herself this year with Barbie
Last year was her annus horribilus.
Noticing the Color Purple Cast of Oppenheimer mistake, I also saw you had it listed as a Warner Bros film - very minor, but I've also sometimes forget Chris Nolan has moved on from WB and is doing his films with Universal now.
9:26 The Supporting Cast for Oppenheimer is the same as The Color Purple?! That's crazy!
Typo!
lol i think you forgot to change the supporting cast for Oppenheimer
Fantasia Barrino-Taylor !!!! she won American Idol in 2004 and she will be Best Actress in 2024.
Great stuff as always 🙌🏻
Just finished listening to High Voltage Jamboree and man what an insane journey that was. First song was a bit too much for me but Let's Go is so hypnotizingly good. And it ended on a very strong note as the last two songs were also very good!
Loved it! Definitely want to hear more music from The Weirdo Electronic Music Expert.
Here’s the list for next year
Killers of the flower moon (yes)
Past lives (yes with 2 noms)
Dune part 2 (delayed 😢)
Saltburn (no noms)
The color purple (1 nom for SAF)
Oppenheimer (obviously)
Poor things (yes)
Barbie (yes)
The holdovers (yes)
Air (0 noms)
Dumb money (0 noms)
Bob Marley biopic (next year)
May December (only SP :()
Maestro (yes)
Blitz (delayed)
The killer (0 noms)
Flint strong (delayed)
Asteroid city (nope)
Beau is afraid (nope)
Rustin (only actor)
How do you live (only animated feature)
Ferrari (nope)
Nightbitch (next year)
The bike riders (next year)
Challengers (next year)
Foe (nope)
The nickel boys (next year)
Lee (nope)
All of us Strangers (nope)
The iron claw (nope :( )
The boys in the boat nope
The zone of interest (yes)
The book of Clarence nope
Across the spiderverse only animated
About dry grasses nope
Priscilla nope
Here (next year)
Napoleon (3 noms)
Drive away dolls (delayed)
Next goal wins (nope)
The collaboration (next year)
Freud’s last session (nope)
El conde (only cinematography)
The wonderful story of Henry sugar (short film)
One life (nope)
11/45 didn’t come out in 2023
Shirley (next year)
Spaceman (next year)
Wonka (nope)
Joy land (nope)
Our apprenticeship (cancelled)
La chimera( nope)
The perfumed hill/black tea (2024, it sucks)
Long days journey into night (next year)
Mission Impossible dead reckoning pt1 (2noms yay)
John wick chapter 4 (nope)
Firebrand (nope)
Rob Pearce (next year)
The new boy (nope)
Caste/origin (nope)
Megalopolis (next year)
And/kind of kindness (next year)
The actor (next year)
Bottoms
Eileen
Fair play
Nyad (actress and supporting actress lol)
The only BP noms not on their radar was American fiction and anatomy of a fall, the winner of both screenplay categories lol
My strongest prediction is that Killers of the Flower Moon gets 11 nominations and either no wins or just one - the sole Supporting Actress win for Lily Gladstone.
i think it wins for supporting actress
you are saying the same about Past Lives that you said about Aftersun last year and that wasn't a big contender in awards season.. but who knows
Don’t underestimate the supporting cast for Oppenheimer lol. Esp looking at who some of these actors will be portraying (Florence Pugh, Robert Downey Jr)
I’ll be rooting for 2023 Color Purple. It would avenge the travesty of the shutout of the original Color Purple.
Great list/video! I feel like a lot of predictors, not just you guys, are forgetting about the new Spielberg though
He doesn't have any movies that are past pre-production right now
@@TheOscarExpert Hmm yeah I guess it makes sense then, I only mentioned it cause the Bullitt/Bradley Cooper casting announcement was 5ish months ago now and Spielberg has sped through production/post relatively quickly in the past
Could Robert Downey Jr. for supporting of Oppenheimer be a thing? I feel the movies has a lo of opportunities for being nominated director, actor, screenplay, editing, cinematography, score, p design, costumes
It has a lot of potential. I can see
Picture
Director
Adapted Screenplay
Lead Actor
Supp Actress
Supp Actor
Editing
Cinematography
Production Design
Costume Design
Sound
Visual Effect
Makeup & Hairstyling
Original Score
I would add these:
Pain Hustlers (Netflix)
D: David Yates
C: Emily Blunt, Chris Evans
Nyad (Netflix)
D: Jimmy Chin, Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi
C: Annette Benning, Jodie Foster
Black Flies (Open Road)
D: Jean-Stéphane Sauvaire
C: Sean Penn, Tye Sheridan
Fingernails (Apple)
D: Christos Nikou
C: Riz Ahmed, Jessie Buckley
Civil War (A24)
D: Alex Garland
C: Kirsten Dunst
Wizards! (A24)
D: David Michod
C: Pete Davidson, Franz Rogowski
Dream Scenario (A24)
D: Kristoffer Borgli
C: Nicolas Cage
Love Lies Bleeding (A24)
D: Rose Glass
C: Kristen Stewart, Katy M. O'Brian, Ed Harris
Priscilla (A24)
D: Sofia Coppila
C: Cailee Spaeny, Jacob Elordi
The Outrun
D: Nora Fingscheidt
C: Saoirse Ronan
The End (NEON)
D: Joshua Oppenheimer
C: Tilda Swinton
Mother's Instinct (NEON)
D: Benoît Delhomme
C: Jessica Chastain, Anne Hathaway
Handling the Undead (NEON)
D: Thea Hvistendahl
C: Renate Reinsve, Anders Danielsen Lie
Longlegs (NEON)
D: Oz Perkins
C: Nicolas Cage, Mika Monroe
The End We Start From
D: Mahalia Belo
C: Jodie Comer, Benedict Cumberbatch
Dogman
D: Luc Besson
C: Caleb Landry Jones
Anatomy of a Fall
D: Justine Triet
C: Sandra Hüller
Jeanne du Barry
D: Maiwenn
C: Maiwenn, Johnny Depp
The Dead Don't Hurt
D: Viggo Mortensen
C: Viggo Mortensen, Vicky Krieps
Monster
D: Hirokazu Koreeda
Red Island
D: Robin Campillo
Les Indésirables
D: Ladj Ly
The Old Oak
D: Ken Loach
The Beast
D: Bertrand Bonello
C: Léa Seydoux, George MacKay
Afire
D: Christian Petzold
The Teacher's Lounge (Sony Pictures Classics)
D: Ilker Çatak
The Persion Version (Sony Pictures Classics)
D: Maryam Keshavarz
Finalmente L’ alba
D: Saverio Costanzo
C: Lily James, Willem Dafoe
Femme
D: Sam H. Freeman, Ng Choon Ping
C: Nathan Stewart-Jarrett, George MacKay
The Miracle Club (Sony Pictures Classics)
D: Thaddeus O'Sullivan
C: Maggie Smith, Kathy Bates, Laura Linney
Joika
D: James Napier Robertson
C: Talia Ryder, Diane Kruger
They did mention Fingernails, The Outrun, Mother's Instinct, Priscilla and Nyad.. and some movies on your list won't release this year like Black Flies, Longlegs, The End we start from, The Old Oak and more..
Is joika this year
@@gabrielcastaneda9700 yes around October/November
@@brijanwilson1888 Black Flies and The Old Oak premiered in Cannes in May. The End We Start From will premiere at TIFF.
The Oppenheimer supporting cast ahahahah
the thing about the color purple is Warner will campaign 3 movies (Dune, Barbie and this)?
I hope Viola Davis will get a Oscar nom for Air next year bc she was so snubbed this last Oscar for the Woman King. Hope Angela Bassett will get a amazing movie role so she can have the Oscar statue in the near future.
Dune Part Two is sweeping EVERTHING 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Literally, this is the fourth year we see Next Goal Wins in this list 😆
Oppenheimer has exactly the same supporting cast as The Color Purple! Amazing coincidence! lol
I know right :D Christopher Nolan has finally acknowledged the existence of non-white acting talent after hiring John David Washington for Tenet.
@@pb.j.1753 It's about time! lol!
Great stuff. I could listen to you guys ramble on for a long time lol.
You guys are the best in the business by such a stretch.
THIS is going to be a great year for Joaquin Phoenix
It's wild to be that Emily Blunt hasn't even been nominated for an Oscar yet. Hopefully Oppenheimer can break that trend.
Hasn't done many oscar type films. A quiet place was close but horror gets shut out
@@nms7872
Young Victoria was nominated for three Oscars, but not for her performance.
Mary Poppins Returns get 4 nomination but no noms for Blunt (Which is a crime for me).
I literally have an ENTIRE list of what I could potentially see as Oscar nominations for 2024.
Barbie FOR sure, I don’t think it’ll get any acting nominations but for All the tech and director awards stuff it’ll get nominated. DUNE 2 for sure, I wonder if Timothee Chalamet will get a nomination seeing as though he’s in TWO major pictures coming out this year? I also think Florence Pugh and Dakota fanning will get best Actress nominations.
The Fanning girls are returning in a big way and I won’t be shocked if there names are on a ballot.
I think Pugh could nominated for Oppenheimer. She plays interesting and important character to Robert Oppenheimer.
I thing Bargie could also be nominated for original song if Dua Lipa writes the song. I know she will be having a cameo and I heard she is potentially writting the official song.
Barbie will sweep costumes
@@nicholas4662 I feel like blunt has a chance for Oppenheimer
It's a little concerning how Jordan Peele's films after Get Out got zero Oscar noms. I kinda feel the same about Fennell and Saltburn.
His films are a lot less Academy friendly then Fennell’s. I don’t see the connection here.
@@itspenn2 She has made one film so far.
@@pb.j.1753 So you’re concerned any time that a filmmaker makes a second movie?
@@itspenn2 No. What connects them is that their first Oscar-winning films were genre films (horror, thriller) that typically are not Oscar-friendly and Peele was not able to strike that chord the second and third time. Saltburn is also a thriller and I have doubts that it will perform as well as Promising Young Woman.
@@pb.j.1753 if it has acclaim and is baity enough it could do well my hunch tells me it's could be like the favourite
It's time for Scorsese to finally win his second oscar for Killers of the flower moon, and maybe a 2nd oscar for Brendan Fraser too.
No, second for Leo and first for Gladstone
Fraser's role is very small and not very interesting
No one will reward Fraser only after A YEAR since his win, be serious. They reward him, he’s done, they are much more actors that deserve their time too
I highly doubt that Fraser will be winning another Oscar anytime soon. This was a major comeback for him, and the narrative was strong for his chances. He won't have that to boost him next time, if there is a next time. Scorsese is a possibility, maybe Leo or Robert De Niro or Jesse Plemons. It's exceedingly rare for an actor to win back-to-back. Only a few have been able to do it: Spencer Tracy, Katharine Hepburn, Tom Hanks and Jason Robards (in support). Short list.
I’m not telling you that this will be in Best Picture but The Peasants is coming out and it’s by Loving Vincent people and also a painted movie
How to Blow Up a Pipeline is my entry for an early-year movie that surprises w/its stamina in the conversation
Oppenheimer below The Color Purple is hilarious in hindsight
I'm hoping for CREED III, Past Lives, Eileen, Emily, Bottoms, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Asteroid City, & Oppenheimer.
After TIFF, there will be some more contenders. Oscar nominees usually come out of thst festival 🙌
Like the talk about the Oscar’s so far ahead of time! I think the graphics said Oppenheimer was a Warner bros movie but i believe it’s actually a universal studios pic