#2 - Game Over or Reset? Mass Layoffs in VFX & Games, Hollywood Strikes, AI Takeover
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- Опубликовано: 8 ноя 2023
- Join us as we delve into the recent wave of mass layoffs in VFX and games. Beyond the industry specifics, we zoom out to analyze the broader economic landscape, aiming to demystify what's been happening behind the scenes.
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Layoffs are super sad.
Luckily I was never hired as a 3D Modeler to begin with. That spared me the trouble of dealing with being fired.
lol.
"Always look on the bright side of life"
_Life of brian_
Trying is the first step towards failure. The lesson is, never try.
@@typingcat you dont learn if you never try
hmmm...well said,@@typingcat
I am an outsourcer part of a huge multinational company and my boss told us in a meeting that our clients specifically told us NOT to use AI because of ethics and potential legal ramifications.
You might misunderstood. AI uses input data into it is self improvment algorithm. Now useing is nice word for stealing intelectual property.
good move honestly. Governments everywhere are becoming more agile and accurate in their tech lawmaking. Tech companies often use unethical methods to make money before the law can catch up, but it's such a visible thing, and so many lawyers have spoken out on how the web scraping method for training is definitely not legal even with today's laws, as well as the inability to copyright and make AI work your IP, it's pretty cut and dry not useful for large parts of a production, rather than background elements, fast asset creation, or concepting.
With due respect. I don't believe that you are that you claim to be
With due respect, you have no idea what you are talking about@@josuemartinez9688
@@josuemartinez9688 nah same thing happened at my bf's job, they literally send daily notifs about not using AI and they even fired some concept artist because of it
I can add a bit to the video game side after recently being made redundant, though given the terms of my redundancy it will have to remain vague and not mention of the company I worked for - other than it's a global AAA company.
Your comments about the COVID bubble, from what I and others could tell, is spot on. Like so many in the tech sector, big game studios rode that COVID financial high and didn't plan at all for the bubble to ever burst. They treated it as the new normal, and doubled down on a lot of things (projects, tools and hires... My studio had been on a hiring freeze for years and had finally got the green light to add a few more to the head count so we were no longer a skeleton crew). So, when the bubble did burst (and I have some information their that I can't share, that basically it's a market correction that are treating as a decline. No surprise that the COO and CFO still have their overpaid job despite not predicting what everyone else had: that COVID lockdown was temporary) it was a slow response from management, but ultimately to save money and appease share holders who start to see the value of their share drop, starts blanket statements of X% across the board to be made redundant.
Now, some of this also stems from the issue with AAA games for the current/last generation - so much money gets put behind these things, that studios need them to succeed (hence the constant next iteration of an existing title) but it also means that these titles get put under insane scrutiny from the higher ups in order to reduce risk and if one fails it puts massive pressure on other titles. This makes game dev a lot, lot harder - because, there are also times you're trying to hit KPI's based on metrics from a 3rd party that says they know the answers. The short of it is, risk mitigation tied in with the COVID burst and shareholder pressure, and prep for recession results in the layoffs.
Worst, is that certain projects that do well can get the team made redundant because the operating costs are higher in that studio's country than another, say India. Then the titles are shipped off to a new team to be made at a fraction of the price for it to die in a year or so (I hold no ill will to those studios, they're given a bad end of the stick too, they are given little time to learn how to make a game that they have had nothing to do with and keep the quality.)
Maybe I'm, jaded, but the best way to cut costs are the incredibly overpaid senior executives (I survived one redundancy where the complaint from the global head of our division was that our project that was in dev and slated to earn a lot of money had cost too much to dev (it happened around the same time as another hick-up in the studio's share price. Not only was their mismanagement a direct component of numerous flops and cost run overs, their punishment was to have only one of their portfolio's taken away, and when they were eventually let go due to more blunders it's a polite, save face golden handshake to another VP job), meanwhile it was the same as their salary, minus bonus and package details) that run these massive companies. Their pay is meant to reflect their risk, but every time stuff goes wrong, the first people to go are the people who actually make the games (we always said that they take the risk, receive the reward and we get shown the door if anything goes wrong. I can't think of a single exec running the actual show falling on their sword after making massive blunder after massive blunder).
As for AI's impact? Can't say too much, but it's is being used by various studios and there are sadly a LOT of people championing for it (from what I can tell, very few are artist and its mostly profit driven by ). There's a lot of legal involved about what can and can't be used, but before I was shown the door, one studio showed off how they're using AI to basically do the vast majority of concepting for assets for a game type that is heavily asset driven for monetization. More so, it was clear by the way that they were talking that the pre-production team that was dev'ing it with basically no artists wouldn't expand the team. So, its already being used to reduce head count and cheered for
Weird, I've been dabbling in 3D art and having a lot of fun, but starting to think it will remain a hobby or a most weak side gig stuff.
I am a mattepainter of 7 years currently out of work due to the lack of work in VFX right now. These strikes and the AI revolution really made me rethink of my career. Finally decided to transition away from the industry. The turbulant career, and add the ethical issues Generative AI presents; ultimately what made me seek a different trade. Everyone who find themselves out of work I would encourage you to look ahead and know you have options! Use this time to upskill, learn and continue to grow.
I'm really sad to hear that! Now that the strikes are over, hopefully this means there's more stability coming soon. Have you considered other specific career paths?
We can only hope for the best. As it stands if the economy continue like this entertainment industry will surely suffer. Less people will be willing to spend money on films and games. I am currently working as a compositor and skilling up to get into Archviz.
@@jirehpauloI was planning on becoming a concept artist in the future but was already attending archi uni. Now I'm very thankful I have this as a backup, and I'm currently also gearing up to learn arch viz and ai in this department as well. Sad fucking reality, but we're some of the lucky ones it seems
It's intresting that the Writers and Actors had a strike but VFX and Games are just sucking it up and getting layed off.
That's because writers, directors and actors are the oldest proffesions in the industry so they were established in a time were unions around guilds were a normal thing. The founder of Digital Domain has been a louder advocator of a unionized VFX industry but unfortunately nowadays is almost impossible to do something like that.
strikes tend to have the opossite effect, not always the best solution. value is subjective
and no one cares besides the ones affected it sucks
Fantastic, finally some level headed conversation that talks about the reality.
Edit: Maybe we need companies that create IPs instead of just being vendors?
i know! how good
Sadly it sounds weird to hear talk about economy without the conclusion being it's Trumps fault or it's Biden's fault.
@@midassnap9028 Likely cause neither of them are Americans.
@@MR3DDev Oh yea you're right.
I work in the industry but being a independent filmmaker and making money from clients has saved me through the strikes I never slowed down I always hated the idea of relying on a company w my fate.
Love the podcast. Massive econ nerd and 3d nerd so great to hear a good discussion of the industry as well as the economy.
You guys are so smart, and I truly enjoy listening to y'all, not just with CG stuff. You two are interesting.
Great breakdown of the current economic state of the world, vfx and game industries. Awesome episode!
Thank you!
I loved the first podcast I am excited to listen this one as well! thanks for the quality content guys 🙌🙌
Our pleasure!
Thanks for posting this and everything you guys are doing!
10:44 Henning says "Now the party seems to be over" but still has Halloween Decorations up !
I'm a complete hypocrite :D
🤣@@FlippedNormals
This was great. I really enjoyed hearing your thoughts on these topics. This has been the worst year In the 15yrs or so that I’ve been in mobile gaming
This kind of podcast is great! You guys should these more often! It is awesome to get an idea where the industries are going and what the industry people thoughts are on these things. Thanks for that!
I can attest to the statement about jobs in auxiliary industries! I'm a 3D artist that works in manufacturing and product rendering is a huge opportunity to fall back on. I'm not talking about super flashy animation but renders for individual products (like the ones you see on product listings on company websites or online stores). Products are always being released and companies always need people to make renders for them. Especially because 3D software renders a million times faster than CAD software. Much better and easier than making the engineers do it (I know because this is how I got my first job out of college 😁)
here in Montreal, the ''world'' capitol for video games....if your a junior artist, u WON'T get a job...if your not the BEST of the BEST!....this industry is so hypocrit, they say in surface that they want junior, but it's all BS!
I usually see a lot of takes on Twitter and on some websites with people using the data I have provided, and I typically don't comment or interact with those. But I'd like to take a moment to thank you for this more nuanced take and discussion on our current landscape. Also thanks for the shoutout to my website
Thank you so much!
Way deeper than I expected from an industry podcast! Very inspiring and informative chat. Thanks.
I say that: having someone doing the design and thinking about every little function its supposed to serve needs a human to think about AND refine. But as Artists (2D, 3D, Photography, Editing etc) we sure need to start becoming more independent than ever before if we want to keep doing what we do. Not everyone is gonna get fired over night. It´ll take time for sure. But everyone should prepare. First the Illustrators and the Photographers, next the 3D Artists. I´ll give it 2-3 years until the 3D model generators we have right now will be actually good and usable for Auto Rigging and Texturing. Especially the pipeline jobs inside of a AAA VFX production are under high risk. I love design, drawing, painting, sculpting and modeling. And I wanna keep doing that. Show your process. Tell your story. Let people know about the tedious work and suffering you had to go through that led to your final result. The human story behind something, that proves what we humans are capable of is something people will always relate to and root for. Your story is what gives your work value.
Your story is only relevant if you want to be an independent artist selling a product.
yea I wish it was like this but the game companies don't care about your story if a robut can do it for a fraction of the price and in a fraction of the time. Robuts!
BRILLIANT INSIGHT⚡️🎯🤙
hard times, create hard men. hard men make easy times. easy times create soft men. soft men make hard times. #stayhard
It's really not, it's more like denial.@@theone8625
Sometimes it seems like in the future, art will be made by artists for other artists within independent art communities, and the general public will simply gobble up whatever politically correct AI spewed garbage gets thrown at them. It's sort of like that already...
Politically Correct?
Stable Diffusion exists because none of its training is censored. If someone wants to generate a picture of Communists or Nazis, Obama or Trump it can do it.
LMAO that was always the case dude
Minus the AI part
yeah I agree .. its funny like for some people art is jut pushing pixels xDD .. o pushing paint .. xD. its a very simplistic and reductionistic ( and arrogant I could add.) behavior /thinking.. sadly I think we could only guess how this will affect humans .. but I also wonder .. why old /classic paintings have value ? why some millionaires learn a lot about art .. symbolism.. rhythm .. why there are so many books written about how some classic cars were a piece of art .. sometimes so advanced to their time .. inventing a machine that can throw at you beautiful images could be easily mistaken thinking its ''art'' its a very dangerous reductionism. and its sad. coz. ai its something so powerful and could really help humans .. but. why humans mistake things. I don't know . Sadly same things happening to humans in modern art galleries were by convenience or money ..
maybe in a few years people will fed up with ai super awesomeness .. maybe the problem. is thinking that time and money is what only matters .. ( a note .. IM saying money'' and not saying ''profit ''. . having profit is good .. maybe. the mistake is act first and think later? maybe. Ai was never created with the first goal to take out artists jobs/work, programmers, engineers, medics/diagnostics,.. web developers ..analists,..3d artists .. movie makers.. comic creators.. etc.. maybe its a part of something more bigger than that .. that would make more sense . I think ? :P apologies for this my Brian fart rant.
For real, corporate art has existed long before AI. Be glad you no longer have to subject yourself to clients and make art for yourself
Love the podcasts!
Great conversation and well needed!
you dont need the permission of a major company to be an artist. we can build our own things.
Working for a company allows specialized skills to create a product. If product is no longer in demand or can be made cheaper the business will adjust. Understanding phycology and trends is probably more important if you want to sell your art to the public. Good luck and always keep your drawing/notebook full.
One advice based on my experience the last 2 years. Despite the economy suck, look at negotiate things outside of salary, more time off, unlimited holidays, full paid maternity leave etc. Don't sit back and think your career can't advance because the economy is in decline. Everything can be negotiated. Also look into private salary/unemployment insurances. They provide a lot of mental stability, especially during tough times. Great video guys!
I'm happy to see you guys back. especially in this form, long form videos are the way to go. I was kind of hoping that the writers strike would continue, but I understand people have families and obligations. The systems as we know them seem to be crumbling, the people that do the bulk of the work see the least amount of benefits, yet the executives and managers rake in the profits.. Do you guys think that may have something to do with it?
Really good discussion with some great industry-wide insights. I’m learning that corporate greed and systemic greed are two very different things, and that just because you love the work you do doesn’t mean your employer will necessarily care… especially if profit and/or survival is at stake.
Yep. I had to pivot. Waited tables for a while, and now I'm doing industrial bricklaying. It's nuts.
I couldn't do either of those jobs, that's why I do security. In a similar but I just chose work where I basically don't have to do anything 99% of the time.
@@fernando3061 I worked as a 3d and 2d artist in a mobile game studio for almost three years. Then one day they just closed the whole game department and everyone got laid off. Bottom line is that sometimes it's easier to just go do a job that is hiring.
Fair point, that's why I'm finishing up my nursing pre reqs next quarter! I figure nursing will be a thing for a while, whereas I don't have a clue what's going to happen in 3D.@@keithparker5625
Great Video, Delighted to see Artists/Designers be vigilant of economic factors and data. Being aware of the subject matter allows us to plan for the future and look for potential solutions. The situation surround inequality is a driving force but there are dozens of factors involved making it more nuanced than blaming corporate greed.
I was dredding doing some work, and so I just watched a bunch of these podcasts as background noise, it helped me finish the project.. it wasn't even related to art lol.
Layoffs are for anticipation for newer tools and renegotiation for salary right? I'm guessing workload is going to be heavier and pay a lot less. I think this is the time to start supporting indie companies and crowdfund our games industry.
Right there with you. I'm only supporting indie devs from now on.
I can’t listen to this due to the absurd number of adds coming from RUclips. 😢 edit- thanks for uploading as an audio podcast. I continued the episode on Apple Podcasts. ❤
Man you aren't even kidding! It's been so bad on youtube this year I finally broke down and started using ad blockers. I'm sorry to all the youtubers that work hard out there but it's just out of hand anymore. And it's not like all those extra ads are even increasing the payout that goes to the content creators anyway.
thank you for discussing this. It's hard times :/
It's a bittersweet reality-I've noticed an uptick in contract opportunities lately, which is positive on one hand. However, the absence of the security that comes with a stable position within a company is undeniably stressful
Sr concept artist here--I feel like AI is woefully inadequate for 90% of production work. It's great for blue-sky type of stuff, but the majority of concept art is solving a ton of very specific problems related to design needs. The time it takes to find nuggets of gold among hundreds, thousands of generations would be better spent doing actual concept art.
That's great to hear honestly!
Super helpful conversation guys, thanks for the economic take
Glad you enjoyed it!
The games industry is extremely recession-resistant.
You are all early to 3D and real-time. The future is extremely bright for your exceptional talents.
Focus on your portfolio and you'll never have job fear again.
In 5 yrs tops i can click button and have 10 variations of a 3d model with good topology in 5 seconds
except salaries for 3d artists are usually below the national average in most contries with USA being the outlier that sometimes gives decent salary. extreme competition, high requirements both technical and artistical, low pay, high stress and workload, little job stability - you can be let go when the art is no longer needed for the project.
@@ergohash2517 Depends on what field you're in.
Low-level environment or prop work maybe.
Highly-skilled and available character artists are few and far between. We often pay a premium.
I don't see how that's a bad thing@@topy706
Very nuanced discussion. Been enjoying your talks these past few days, already watched a few of the videos! TAW CA '10 (or '14? anyways, one year before you guys) here. Cheers!
For reference there has been 6,000 jobs lost in gaming this year but tech has seen 240,000 jobs lost globally. Coivid, war in Ukraine, inflation, interest rates and the general cost of living it's tough out there. Poor company decisions doesn't help
Dont forget the new war in the Middle East and the upcoming war in Asia.
The one thing I hear nobody talks about on this topic is that actually all major triple A publishers are hoarding cash, in the billions. There is a chart I seen from CNBC to prove this, So with that said, yes interest rates are higher, cheap money is out of the picture, but many of the publishers are generating more profits than ever. Very different than the layoffs happening in 08. I personally think this is happening because companies know they manage their studios poorly and it's expensive to experiment with trying to create the new IPs in this expensive era of development. Also the market is shifting to push out more games as a service however most are not figuring out the formula. My personal opinion is that they are laying off staff and cutting projects to essentially hoard more cash to make aquistions instead of developing it on their own. They rather let numerous studios do all the experimentation on their own and buy up the few that are the next cash cows of business. They are definitely not hurting in terms of profits currently
Being in vfx for 20 years. This is the worst it has ever been. Vfx is a shitty industry with stupid ways from bidding and other things. The work wont come back the way most people think. Network tv is dead, the days of 22- 23 episodes are gone.no more comic book movies, no more disney shows really. Everything is scaled way way back. I think it will contract to back to 2009 levels. There will be no feast
It might have something to do with the strikes, productions on hold, schedules timetables.
Studios anticipate and so lay everyone off for a year, then can do a rehire/shuffle when the next round of (hopefully better) scripts start rolling in.
Ai still changes everything; many won't be rehired because of new tech and smaller teams due to automation.
In many ways the strike (though understandable) actually consolidates the studios control and gave then the space to plan and reset during a tumultuous time.
I don't think it's there, yet... But looking back to what happened to traditional animation. I don't think ethics are going to faze anyone in charge when AI does show up with something that could become a new standard, as long as it can save money.
The copyright thing probably won't even be an issue when big studios start building proprietary software for it.
hmmmmmm...also an interesting point. You guys are smart.@@flipletape9706
Exactly!!!! And AI can have independent artists doing their own thing.
@@rockon8174 Totally! I think it would be a great tool for that to be honest. I mostly do character animation and modeling, so it would be a game changer for me to be able to make personal projects without having to spend months on stuff I don't really care to be working on.
I''ve also been a musician for over 20 years, so making music videos on my own without having to hire a full crew would make my life so much easier. Because lets be honest, I couldn't dream of being able to afford that.
It would be a dream to me to be able to create content on my own on a more regular basis. And who knows, maybe even making a living out of it on its own. I'm so sick of working for studios on projects I barely even care about.
There's nothing unethical about AI.
When Cameras were invented, it took away 99% of reasons to hire a Painter. Yet it's not illegal to own one.
AI is basically a camera on steroids. Instead of clicking a button to record life, it creates it from scratch.
Its good to know, that you, guys, not lock you minds only to technical things, but touch those important subjects.
Good stuff guys!
I've worked as a 2d artist for some years and i'm thinking of a career change right now . Ai is probably not going to destroy all jobs , however it has already massively impacted the quality of the field in a negative way( much tighter deadlines, dead of creativity-basically you have to use ai and overpaint it to be competitive and extreme competitivines overall). The top 5-10% of the industry is safe and also a lot of the independent artists and creators , the rest of us are not doing that great, If you are a begginer and want to get in the industry or a junior artist i genuinely don't think it's worth it
Oh great. I just started 2 years in school in game art😅
@@ben_angeldobt get scammed by art school
@@topy706 elaborate...
im one of the junior artists are lucky enough that is still surviving. what i do is just don't do anything wrong and don't put myself in the line of fire, keep silent and not knowing anything (even though im very aware there are troubles) is the best approach for me.
@@ben_angel dont need art school just learn for free. and teachers will lie to you when you suck
thanks for the video
Youre spot on. I think the same here. Do you think its the start of a golden age for indivual storytellers?
The strikes are over, but VFX is on the backend of the schedule so there are many months to go before the gears will start turning for VFX.
No doubt, this will take some time
I just find it very odd that all of these companies didn't see financial stress at once. They're laying people off (me included) in succession. "Oh look, it's your turn to lay your employees off, Bill." "Okay thanks, Chuck!"
Instead, it's as if they're acting out of FOMO.
Sorry to hear about you being laid off! That really sucks:( You are beyond talented Bobby so hopefully you'll find something soon.
Dude....so what!?? You got skills, start marketing yourself and do your own thing!!!!!
Great talk
AI is so over-hyped right now; it's completely ridiculous. It'll have an impact on our work and our world, no doubt. But some people are going way overboard.
The ideas about AI will have more impact than AI itself will have...
@@garretthiggins2152 Man... The capital is what will have impact, not AI.
AI should be a way to help people and it will steal jobs, no doubt about that.
The thing is that people should have stability and help moving from jobs, but the capital prefers and needs them to be poor and prone to accept bad jobs.
Have a look around what's happening this past decades, people are getting poorer and capitalist crisis are each year worse than the last.
@@PedroLopes-xe8ux Universal Basic Income or a fundamental restructuring of / abolition of capitalist societies are the solution. In the meantime, where neither seems imminent, I understand why people fear AI- as being replaced will threaten their ability to stay fed and housed while not being forced into doing labor they don't wish to.
Its not realy overhyped, like it makes better work, faster and more accuratley. How do people compete? they dont.
We have build a thing that destroy us! More to come! Be smart!
People are saying to embrace AI to survive in the industry. But are we embracing our inevitable doom? It might not take all of our jobs right away but I believe it will take a big chunk within a decade.
It’s not about clinging to jobs it will take away, it’s about clearing new roads to the jobs it will create. People treat AI as a purely destructive force without acknowledging it will create more than it takes away.
@@dp2791 It is creatively destructive. By its very nature it can't create anything beyond what it is trained to.
@@dp2791new jobs? Really, you think AI could create a decent amount of jobs to replace those jobs it took away? And what kind of jobs would be? Let me guess, “almighty prompt engineer”? Man, I would love to have your optimism or whatever this kind of delusional perception of reality is, the life would be so easier.
@@agathalynx ok doomer, go cry on your bed, AI can and will have its benefits for artists, but if you wanna get stricken by depression instead of adapting, go ahead
love you guys
This video was too long and repetitive to watch so I copied the transcript and asked an AI to summarize it for me... But irony aside (yes, I did do that), some good info in this talk, so thank you!
I think the death of the industry is the birth of the indie designer. Someone who can do it all could use AI tools for rigging, UVing, etc to streamline the process to a point where they'd have enough time to focus on marketing and make something that ppl care about as opposed to talented ppl working on huge corporate blockbusters that are shoveled out sans soul or substance.
I appreciate the conversation about this stuff. It's been super easy to blame shitty companies when there are lots of compounded issues here. Make me feel at least a bit better that this will likely be a season in our industry and it will eventually pass.
i think the issues is still the companies fault, sustainable growth and expansion should be a large part of companies thought process. Peoples lives are being ruined by companies who have no thought in these areas. If normal every day people can see the possible issues then mega corporations/companies should be able to easily see it as well.
Times like this is also a great time to start something new.
To compete with the big guys, or just be amongst the indie crew studios and to make your own.
Let's have a look on a bright side of this situation. If AI can do the whole 3d model (I doubt it'll be as cool as professionals can do), it'll be much easier to create a game and realize ideas. Hence, many indi devs will make their wishes come true
for outsourcing is pretty hard to have portifolio pieces with your work
I would love to hear more about economy science on a similar level depicted here, can someone advice a course or a book please?
ruclips.net/video/PHe0bXAIuk0/видео.htmlsi=VLH_JbcY0caMGdAa
This is a great starting point
You guys have the ability to make your own stuff without a boss or middle man. Be gods in this digital space and spark your own flame. All the tools are before you to be great.
BRILLIANT! 🎯✊️⚡️
The only sensible comment I’ve read
I've said it before but beyond being extraordinarily unethical LLMs and generative AI is a fundamentally incomplete and insufficient technology and those that build their business around it are doomed to fail. They will get what they deserve, but the hard working employees that they lay off to attempt this grand experiment will not. The fact that this is such a popular idea will prove catastrophic, even apocalyptic for the global economy. A new great depression is on the horizon coming sooner than you think.
😂every human endeavor, a machine will and does... better
@@dedlunch Only if you are too lazy to learn.
@@gaho5624 professional sculptor 🙂
@@dedlunch than you, maybe.
😂😂😂😂 nope
Gotta disagree with the A.I and concept at for now at least. It can do it for sure, but no Art Director will take an AI generated portfolio and hire someone, even if the higher ups wouldnt care. Art Directors are artists and they want other actual artists on their teams. A.I just has a look and you can spot it a mile away.
If it was true. I read today from a Ubisoft worker that they have an art director now whose portfolio is full of AI shit.
You assume art directors can do art.
"I just has a look and you can spot it a mile away." True
Surely the point is that Art Directors would be using the generative AI themselves, rather than hiring and directing concept artists who use it? And who cares if AI art has an identifiable look? It's essentially just internal art, for decision making purposes. If the project eventually gets a 'making of' book, they can hire an illustrator to paint over the AI stuff.
@@Souleater44444 probably they need a guy like him who can differentiate what's true art from ai. Keep your friends close your enemies closer. No company which entirely relies on AI survives so is one which is not trying to keep up with tech. Generated 'art' Can work for a while but won't stand a chance against litigation. About time to polish your English to prompt a masterpiece. I guess the grammar we're taught at school is going to be decisive than a paint brush, a mouse or a tablet in the foreseeable future.
I can you’re the type to leave the pumpkins up until the new year
I would really love ai take over all the jobs. I would love to see all the chaotic situation, and of course the cry of a lot of people.
31:39 this. Exactly this.
I decided at the beginning of this year that I woas going to start working in the gaming industry this year. But after seeing all these layoffs throughout the year makes me think that might not be happening. Still trying tho...
Can you add Discord link to the description or on a pinned comment? I couldn't find it anywhere 🤔
Here you go!
discord.gg/3Xu4uXWPT5
ads every 5 mins is insane
Right now feels like a reset on the game industry.
56:50 i was one that had 2 really good jo s lined up right before all this. 1 was Microsoft i was hoing to be working some cool ar stuff in a small team, second was CNN/WB....i was going to accept and do both because Microsoft would have been hybrid which would have been perfect....both projects got X out because both companies had major layoffs. 😢😢😢😢
9:07 turkey mentioned WOOOOO!!!!
Auuuuuuuuuuuuu
🇹🇷 astım ben
No worry, China and India are hiring a lot of VFX artists.
All those people who were fired should get together and start their own company and compete against the AI companies. Just watch how those big companies will quickly stop being big once that happens. That's the only way to fight back against that AI theft nonsense.
also watermark(encrypt) our art before posting them online. It's possible to remove watermark but at least let these companies be conscious they are stealing when removing a label.
Ai will only make already soulless maximum profit driven games even worse.
we will just more and more lifless scammy games no one will play ...
AI helps People with absolutely no artistic maturity make artistic choices
It gives me shivers I swear
I'm in my final year of uni studying animation but specialised in CG modelling, this has made me terrified enter this industry, can anyone offer any advice or optimism?
It goes in waves where there are plenty of jobs and then few jobs. It was similar to people graduating in 2008. Keep focusing on a strong portfolio, develop your skills and stay in touch with the community and gain new friends online. Once the market picks up, you'll then be in a strong position:)
Thankyou for this reply, that makes me feel a bit better!
I graduated from animation in the wake of 2008. Didn't lead to the career I wanted, but I've survived as a creative for 15 years :) I've done games, music, web development, teaching, fashion, marketing, and probably more stuff I can't even remember. Currently teaching and starting an indie studio. It's been a turbulent and weird journey, never safe or comfortable, but I've loved it and still do.
@@FlippedNormals I graduated in the wake of 2008 and never ended up in any career I wanted. But I do often consider something I read in an old Zelazny novel a long time ago. To paraphrase it: 'There are two ways to define yourself. You can define yourself by your profession. Or you can define yourself by how to actually spend your time.' I spend most of my free time creatively. I write software. I compose songs. I draw, paint, and animate. I've even recently gotten back into 3D modeling. I make games just for fun. This is how I spend my time. And any time people ask me who I am and what I do I don't ever hesitate about what to tell them. On the other hand, my job is just a way to keep food on the table and a roof over my head.
Good to hear a sensible attitude to interest rates. The last decade and more rates have been appalling, very very bad low. Younger people have been deceived if they think rates will or should fall, they are still relatively low. Near free money to use leads to very bad decisions in companies and personal lives. Not like everyone was not told, rates had only one way to go back to normal and above hopefully. Most people's pay is excessive, and the spending habits they got too used too.
Art, is a hobby to do, a luxury product. Traditionally artists starved in garrets, not had well paid jobs. Doubtless been fun for those who have had such for some time but times change. Lots want to play as work, get paid for it. If you need an income, are younger, do something people 'need' not just like to have.
Holy fuck 2024 has not been better.
I got hired in the great covid boom. I was having money thrown at me. I bought a sports car. Thought I'd finally made it after ten years of being broke. Contract ended naturally. Now my wife and I have no job (both games industry).
I renewed my mortgage just before rates went up. I'd be in a cardboard box under a bridge right now if I hadn't.
Crap man :|
Thanks for discussing this important topic!
Thank you!
I think we kind of miss the point here turning it all to AI and human labor replacement. I am in the industry and I love doing it... They have talked about a lot of subjects regarding the current situation and what really got my attention is them mentioning one of the major problems in the industry: greed, micro management, ego, to what I add selfishness, hiring "relatives and friend buddies", sexual harrasment, jealousy... Name it. And those all are human weaknesses. Do not know what other people experiencess in the industry are but I have been in big studio structures and in small teams and these elements are always there and always persistant to the day I realise it is time to go. And this is sad indeed leaving job or being pushed to leave one way or another because it turns out it is never enought of you to do your job in quality and in time... You are never good enough and you need to play somebody's game othewise you are being kicked. So if AI or whatever can put a line to all this I am all in. And I do not think it is going to ruin the industry, maybe change it. And I believe in people and those willing to persue artistic careers, one way or another there is always a way to move on and do better.
Well, come to Argentina where last year the rent went up a 110 % :)
Not even think in buying a house.
You elected that crazy dude, I hope he's going to do well, parading with a chainsaw was somehow cool, ahah. Argentina looks like a cool place, half of the population has Italian heritage too.
@@gabrielegagliardi3956 Well, we will see I guess.
I'm one of those with Italian heritage. I just can't prove it yet so I can get my passport and fly away 🤣
@@MiguelPizzo Ahah, I'm Italian and In my mind I've always thought Argentinians were like our cousins/relatives. I still remember in the past when every Argentinan footballer had a double Argentinian/Italian passport because every European team were forced to use at least 8 EU players on the pitch.
@@gabrielegagliardi3956 And still happens I guess. That idea of having the double nationality never went away. Is the ticket away from here into the world!
If someone with the willing of share his/her nationality wants to adopt me and is reading this.. please, reach out!!! 🤭
Actors and writers strike agreements will last for 3 years then there will be another negotiation. How artists are supposed to make long term plans in this industry if even VFX and games studio can’t make a 1/2 years projection of their own revenues. You can’t have a massive layoff every two years and artists need to stop talking about emergency savings, you can’t have an emergency every 2 years
There some economist that don't share the idea of the origin of the current inflation, particularly in UK. The current inflation is not completely related with the covid as the concept of making the interest almost 0. It because two factors the stop of the production chain in China and the War in Ukraine. Increasing the interest rate won't have a direct effect in the inflation as we think, it will cause just the side effect, making the people poorer and probably it will increase the inflation futher in some sectores like renting and local shops. Because the insterest rate has increased, the mortgages also grow, so the cost of living of landlords grow too, that makes the inflation harder. The main reason of the inflation is the energy and the production chain and there are better options to reduce the inflation like Spain did with "la excepcion iberica" and more benefits. I would keep the insterest as it is or even bit lower and increase the benefits for normal people and not for big companies. Otherwise UK will stay in an eternal recession.
Most people wont survive this. Sadly the market is shrinking by 70-90% in the next 10 years. I saw in the comments one guy has start laying bricks. That will 100% be more profitable than staying in this industry.
To be fair, it's never been a safe field to work in. My first studio had their tax break end a year after I've started working there and moved across the country, which is further than crossing the Atlantic ocean. Could've moved there, but hard to do with a family. With no insurance that you'll get any work within months, or even years -- it involves constantly looking for new contracts in different places, if you can. Unless you get really lucky with a descent place to work that has high retention rates, and even then. People need a plan B, plan C, and even a plan D. It's just part of the game to deal with these things.
You will lay bricks for maximum 10 yrs then your back is so destroyed you wont be able to work at all 😔
I've been saying it for a couple years now but I guess I'll repeat it here since you hit the nail on the head - # learn2weld lol
Listening to you guys apologize for massive corporate greed is pretty difficult. The reason the world is in such a terrible state is because people don't have the strength or courage to confront that people are being shitty.
"Corporate greed" is why people invest in the company in the first place, to make profit from their investment, without it there are no jobs. Greed is an ethereal human trait, and mostly subjective because you don't have the complete perspective of any situation. "Greed" isn't going anywhere
@@devingaviria6389 What? Without corporate greed there are no jobs? There are no profits without greed? Wake up, dude. You're just saying and thinking exactly what they want you to think, and that's why everyone who isn't rich has a shit life right now, and everyone who becomes rich just does the same stupid greedy shit. It's world of little boys and girls instead of mature adults who can see what is right in front of them and identify it as bad.
@@WeAreCameron I just understand Reality better than you. you live in lala land, where resourse aren't limited and things are produced without people to produce them. not everyone can be rich nor do they have to be. Rich people have the ability to invest and they do because thats how they grow their money to even get rich or become richer. its the nature of business to be ambitious and want what can you get. And you as well want more for less. your no different then the corporate greeders, your just lazier and less ambitous. but you like to day dream.
@@devingaviria6389 Okay, well I'm just going to assume from your rhetoric and your personality that you're a very young person, because that will be more flattering for you than pointing out very obvious problems in the world that are being directly caused by corporate capitalism. I can tell from how you're talking that there is no amount of truth that will manage to seep into your mind-- you got that shit locked down airtight. Instead, I'll just go back to actually caring about other people and trying to make the world a better place. You go back to ... whatever the fuck you were doing.
@@WeAreCameron that other guy has a point though. do you really think you can change anything about the corporate capitalism?
There are a lot of things going on in the economy all at once - one of the biggest is that there's a demographic change in the US as the Boomers age out. They continue to hold the majority of the assets, but they aren't working or consuming like they were. Something has to happen to those assets, and it looks like what's happening now is that as the demographic profile shifts, society becomes more willing to invest in a different alignment of industries - a different social contract, use of technology, approaches to work and everything else. And that's happening in a geopolitical sense, too, with the economy reshoring a lot of stuff that was outsourced before. In some respects the national and legal frameworks can direct these changes, but they're also reacting to things. The people at the top of these large organizations are characteristically power-hungry and want a way to control more of something, anything. So the market is always built around incentives that make them supportive of the country and legal framework they're in, instead of, like, hiring an army and becoming drug warlords or something. What the government ultimately does for the market is to tell them, "if you pursue this, we'll make sure investment flows your way and we'll work out a legal framework that's convenient for you." And that brings a lot of the chaos into alignment and allows some kind of coherent national policy. It makes the political system, monetary system, and job markets work - imperfectly, but enough to be a reality for most of our lives.
But, when it's a broad structural transition like this, nothing goes to plan. Everyone has to change everything they're doing just to survive, and we're just waiting for the dust to settle. That's why the inflation picture is unpredictable and emerging with a different result sector-by-sector: often when it's a technology change, the only reason you didn't use it before was because it wasn't cheaper, it was higher quality, and if you tried to use it, the rest of the market would undercut you on price. And the steady low interest rate regime actually meant that very little had to change: all you had to do was borrow more and envision ever-bigger schemes to achieve a return on investment, which is how you get companies like Uber or WeWork. When everything's changing all at once, suddenly every industry is in a position to change their approach and use the new tech. And I can tell that this did change with AI, because, in recent threads I've seen on Reddit and elsewhere, the clients that would try to stiff illustrators before are still doing it, but they're doing it by saying, "oh I just want to see a pose sketch", because they need that data to feed into the AI to get the specific image they want. What the illustrators should be doing is upselling them to a course in using a camera and tracing over the photo, or maybe becoming "AI pose specialists" who provide stock data. Only half-joking. There's definitely a new role emerging around using that stuff in a professional capacity, but it's the kind of shakeup that means that some people will hang up the guns and another group will see an opportunity to sign on.
My entire business is crumbling because of all this went from having a good dinner at lear once a week to nothing Thank you also Flipped normals for giving artist a platform to grow I cant than you enough
What job or industry is it if you dont mind me asking?
I’m on my road to become a 3d modeler for the game industry, should I still keep going? This is what I love to do, but before starting in 3D, I learned 2 years of 2d art…was going to become a digital artist, but last year all AI software kicked in for 2d arts, and as they are getting better and better now, so the road is end for me. I really don’t know if this will happen with 3d modeling too..
I think you should learn to do everything, not only modeling, because AI can do modeling better, than humans, and in the near future the competition will be completely lost for humans. Learn technical and creative part for virtual production. The more you know, the more possibilities that you will be afloat.
Learn Unreal Engine
Don't get too bogged down on industry titles like "2d artist, digital artist or 3d Modeller", these are allocated by producers to label artists into strict roles to organise a pipeline of work. Focus on learning and expanding your art knowledge, if you find it fun and interesting then carry on. Don't worry about what industries require as everything requires art.
@@22cine Eh, not quite yet. A lot of it is waay too much hype, and people get confused because they read the word "AI" , and their frame of reference for this word is mostly from sci-fi, so they project a lot of non-existing stuff into it . If people look into what tremendous amount of data derived from humans, edited and redacted by humans it requires, how much power and resources it takes, how many programmers and scientists it takes to make these generative algorithms, it's more clear that there's nothing to be called ''intelligence'' behind it. It's mostly human made algorithms inspired by neuronal networks of the brain.
You'll be obsolete soon. Hope you have plan B.
My house now sells for almost 100k more then what we bought it for back in 14.
That’s why we won’t sell. The home we would want to buy next is ridiculously over priced. And the interest rates aren’t 3.7 like we got when we bought our house. Got to ride it out.
I honestly missed the flow of information from you guys, and not just technical about sculpting but some of the realities of the industry and your take of it. Now let's all focus on the actual question. Maya or Blender? jk, welcome back
Thank you! :D Its good to be back.
So you are both work for your Flip Normals enterprise, ..🔅
F.N. is the conection ?! ........... .
I thought the right guy is a guest in the past talks.😂
We started FlippedNormals together 10 years ago. At that time we were just getting started with making online tutorials and started selling some of them as well.
School was actually the connection
The game designer in me thinks who built this system it seems so dysfunctional. I dont know enough about this but why would you force a company to infinitely grow by making them beholdent to stakeholders. Why cant companies work without them? Genuinely just curious how it works and why its setup like this.
I think the way to survive the age of AI is a varied skillset,maybe being a generalist will make more sense in future
Who knows everything, is not good at anything.
@@Lord_Emmanuel that is true in case everything takes long time to be good at,if AI takes seconds to make a master piece art then an artist who learns fundamentals can create master level artwork with AI and not spend so much time to train his hand to follow his brain to draw,he then has extra time to learn animation,to learn film making and etc... Ai removes the need for immense practice to be good at something
I think AI is definitely bad for no creative "artists" in the industries and probably more prevalent to designers to an extent. Most jobs today in a commercialized way are just human calculators doing mindless manual labor rather than actually being a creative. Most likely if there is a job for human in the "art" industry it would be a director type with an "eye" for aesthetic and coming up with interesting new designs that AI has to learn or struggle to invent on its own. Less manual labor for the creative and more idea realization. And for non creative types in the industry it could aid in fleshing out their ideas by focusing more time and energy on generating the idea or concept rather than focusing on the draftsman aspect. Ultimately though i think you would absolutely need traditional education and practice so that you possess the fundamental groundwork and thorough understanding of what you are doing. So artist persuit is always going to be decades of polishing regardless just focused more on the creative aspect. In a way this is a natural culling of the oversaturated market of employees vying for a limited position that simply are getting by on the skill which is in demand for production rather than creative part.
i got railroaded out by HR, they probably had a quota to hit