Hi Alistair. As always, this whole thread is most thought provoking. I agree with your sentiments re. historical betting trends. What I have played around with is data that indicates in play field position. My reasoning being that if a horse is going to shorten up, to make these theories work, it needs to be one that races on (or near to) the pace. My fav play, used to be, was Dobbing a horse that was a genuine on pacer, ridden by S de Sousa and trained be Mark Johnstone. Almost always guaranteed a run for your money. In fact most of MJ's horses are always on pacers. I'm based in in New Zealand and in this part of the world most of Gai Waterhouse trained runners, particularly when ridden by Tim Clark, are almost a lay down misère to lead and keep on kicking.
The idea behind the 70% of past ten races rule when dobbing has been around for ages. I prefer more recent runs and if I had the time, I'd develop some sort of rating system that took that into account as well as consideration for the level of odds at which each dob occurred. I can't see myself ever getting round to that so I'll have to rely on my gut feeling, as usual 🤣
Just a question,/clarification, on oor willie you backed at decimal 6.0 which is 5/1 but you dobbed at decimal 3.0 which is 2/1, should the dob be placed at decimal 3.5 which is 5/2 which would be half of 5/1? Or is the correct dob strategy to half the decimal, I would be grateful if you could explain this
Decimal 6.0/3.0 is correct. If you use fractional odds when calculating your dob, you need to do some mathematical jiggery-pokery in order to include your stake. Base your calc on decimals and it is automatically included.
Hi Alastair, Just stumbled across your channel and I have to say how much I'm enjoying your insight and ideas. I have just started trading horses using a combination of Inform racing and BF Bot manager to automate. I have yet to dive into the World of DOBBING or should I say CHOBBING haha. Do you have any advice for selection process? I was thinking along the lines of my selection being minimum 6.0 12 runners or less with no clear favourite in the race with my selection being ranked in the top 3 of the master plus avg rating on inform racing speed ratings? Any advice you can give will be appreciated. You have earnt yourself a new subscriber! Good luck
Yes Rob, you should say "CHOBbing" 🤣 Welcome to the channel and thanks for subscribing. It's difficult to give a definitive answer to your question as any selection method can be a matter of personal taste and somewhat subjective. One can go down the route of form/course/jockey/trainer analysis and I have no doubt that success could be found down that route, but TBH, for me anyway, it's a lot of hard work and I suspect the number of selections would be reduced. Personally I tend to go for more of a scattergun approach in the knowledge that I'll hit the odd bad spell. In addition, there's lots of pundits etc with much more knowledge of the sport than me. So, as you have gathered, my main source is Napchecker but, depending on what I'm doing, I may look for confirmation via pace maps, in play price data etc It's important to remember that whatever your selection process, you will hit drawdowns and you need to be prepared for that.
@@betyourlife Thanks Alastair for your detailed reply. Much appreciated, I'm looking forward to going through some more of your videos. Keep up the great work
If your green up didn't fire even though your selection went on to win I suspect you haven't configured the green up's conditions correctly. A rule will only fire when all its conditions are met.
could u knidly set the data on what im trying to do upload it to the one drive. Im trying to back a horse before the race at say 6.0 get the stake back at 4.5 and green up for a set profit that what im trying to do but i cant figure it out. pleasse help
Sorry, I do not do personal requests like that. It would be never ending if I did and I simply haven't got the time. Besides, you'll benefit more if you do it yourself. To that end go to the CHOBbing playlist where you'll find a number videos detailing the automation process. Specifically look for the following titles: DOBbing With Insurance - Automated Green Up. DOBbing With Insurance - Alternative Settings. Setting Options For CHOBbing. CHOBbing Rules Optimisation. There's a few others in there but those should set you on the right path.
Oh no it's random thoughts time. Like you say it's all down to the selection process. Firstly, do I want to attempt this race? Number of runners, distance, is there a strong favourite? If I do want to be involved I could make a pick using: Expert* opinion. Napchecker. As an aside, how much ahead do we think the tipsters submit their tips? Should we only take notice on AW tracks in case the running has changed from what the tipster is expecting? Historical DOB ratings, X dobs in last Y races / time. Wisdom of the crowd. What's shortened in the last 5 minutes before off. Jockey / trainer currently hot? Form analysis. Is it also worth number crunching post racing to see if there's a better target than a flat 50%? Happy chobbing!
I'm having a bit of an issue with this. The trade is going in at 25% unmatched, but then it's trading out at I higher price. I've just had a race backed @ 5.5, but then traded out @ 5.7 even though the unmatched initial bet was correct.
Do you have an automated green up? If so, check the settings; make sure it has a condition that checks the market p/l is greater or equal to your target
@@betyourlife I suspected that might be the problem, have rewritten it and have added a rule that there's only 1 unmatched bet. Just testing as we speak. Thanks for the reply 👍
Typical. Find a vid with some genuinely original content but the audio is so bad there's no way of knowing what's being said. I have no idea what you were doing here but it looks interesting. It would be brilliant if you didn't record it while underwater.
Hi Alistair. As always, this whole thread is most thought provoking. I agree with your sentiments re. historical betting trends. What I have played around with is data that indicates in play field position. My reasoning being that if a horse is going to shorten up, to make these theories work, it needs to be one that races on (or near to) the pace. My fav play, used to be, was Dobbing a horse that was a genuine on pacer, ridden by S de Sousa and trained be Mark Johnstone. Almost always guaranteed a run for your money. In fact most of MJ's horses are always on pacers. I'm based in in New Zealand and in this part of the world most of Gai Waterhouse trained runners, particularly when ridden by Tim Clark, are almost a lay down misère to lead and keep on kicking.
The idea behind the 70% of past ten races rule when dobbing has been around for ages. I prefer more recent runs and if I had the time, I'd develop some sort of rating system that took that into account as well as consideration for the level of odds at which each dob occurred.
I can't see myself ever getting round to that so I'll have to rely on my gut feeling, as usual 🤣
Just a question,/clarification, on oor willie you backed at decimal 6.0 which is 5/1 but you dobbed at decimal 3.0 which is 2/1, should the dob be placed at decimal 3.5 which is 5/2 which would be half of 5/1? Or is the correct dob strategy to half the decimal, I would be grateful if you could explain this
Decimal 6.0/3.0 is correct. If you use fractional odds when calculating your dob, you need to do some mathematical jiggery-pokery in order to include your stake. Base your calc on decimals and it is automatically included.
Chob
Hi Alastair, Just stumbled across your channel and I have to say how much I'm enjoying your insight and ideas. I have just started trading horses using a combination of Inform racing and BF Bot manager to automate. I have yet to dive into the World of DOBBING or should I say CHOBBING haha. Do you have any advice for selection process? I was thinking along the lines of my selection being minimum 6.0 12 runners or less with no clear favourite in the race with my selection being ranked in the top 3 of the master plus avg rating on inform racing speed ratings? Any advice you can give will be appreciated. You have earnt yourself a new subscriber! Good luck
Yes Rob, you should say "CHOBbing" 🤣
Welcome to the channel and thanks for subscribing.
It's difficult to give a definitive answer to your question as any selection method can be a matter of personal taste and somewhat subjective.
One can go down the route of form/course/jockey/trainer analysis and I have no doubt that success could be found down that route, but TBH, for me anyway, it's a lot of hard work and I suspect the number of selections would be reduced.
Personally I tend to go for more of a scattergun approach in the knowledge that I'll hit the odd bad spell. In addition, there's lots of pundits etc with much more knowledge of the sport than me.
So, as you have gathered, my main source is Napchecker but, depending on what I'm doing, I may look for confirmation via pace maps, in play price data etc
It's important to remember that whatever your selection process, you will hit drawdowns and you need to be prepared for that.
@@betyourlife Thanks Alastair for your detailed reply. Much appreciated, I'm looking forward to going through some more of your videos. Keep up the great work
When you are researching your picks are you a Chobby Checker?
You leave my CHOBby Checker out of it! 😂
I still check for DOBs when deciding on CHOBs
IM TRYING IT IN SIM MODE ADDING TO GREEN UP FOR PROFIT BUT DOES IT GREEN UP CAUSE THE HORSE WON AND IT STILL NEVER GREEN UP ?
If your green up didn't fire even though your selection went on to win I suspect you haven't configured the green up's conditions correctly. A rule will only fire when all its conditions are met.
could u knidly set the data on what im trying to do upload it to the one drive. Im trying to back a horse before the race at say 6.0 get the stake back at 4.5 and green up for a set profit that what im trying to do but i cant figure it out. pleasse help
Sorry, I do not do personal requests like that. It would be never ending if I did and I simply haven't got the time. Besides, you'll benefit more if you do it yourself.
To that end go to the CHOBbing playlist where you'll find a number videos detailing the automation process. Specifically look for the following titles:
DOBbing With Insurance - Automated Green Up.
DOBbing With Insurance - Alternative Settings.
Setting Options For CHOBbing.
CHOBbing Rules Optimisation.
There's a few others in there but those should set you on the right path.
Oh no it's random thoughts time. Like you say it's all down to the selection process.
Firstly, do I want to attempt this race? Number of runners, distance, is there a strong favourite?
If I do want to be involved I could make a pick using:
Expert* opinion. Napchecker. As an aside, how much ahead do we think the tipsters submit their tips? Should we only take notice on AW tracks in case the running has changed from what the tipster is expecting?
Historical DOB ratings, X dobs in last Y races / time.
Wisdom of the crowd. What's shortened in the last 5 minutes before off.
Jockey / trainer currently hot?
Form analysis.
Is it also worth number crunching post racing to see if there's a better target than a flat 50%?
Happy chobbing!
I'm having a bit of an issue with this. The trade is going in at 25% unmatched, but then it's trading out at I higher price. I've just had a race backed @ 5.5, but then traded out @ 5.7 even though the unmatched initial bet was correct.
Do you have an automated green up? If so, check the settings; make sure it has a condition that checks the market p/l is greater or equal to your target
@@betyourlife I suspected that might be the problem, have rewritten it and have added a rule that there's only 1 unmatched bet. Just testing as we speak. Thanks for the reply 👍
Choc. Chob. Who the F is…
Typical. Find a vid with some genuinely original content but the audio is so bad there's no way of knowing what's being said. I have no idea what you were doing here but it looks interesting. It would be brilliant if you didn't record it while underwater.
I understand what is being said perfectly