As am American living here in the UK, I have always been dumbfounded on the mortgage market here. 2yr -5yr (rarely ever fixed) and renegotiate multiple times over the course of the loan. Too much of the UK's wealth is tied up in real estate. In the US, many have a 401k or reasonable pension to rely on for retirement. So, many have been brainwashed into thinking the only way to wealth in the UK is through property. Then, sell up and downsize for your retirement pot. Any sizeable correction in UK housing will basically cripple a generation's retirement and lead to bigger issues.
I advise you to invest in stocks to balance out your real estate, Even the worst recessions offer wonderful buying opportunities in the markets if you're cautious. Volatility can also result in excellent short-term buy and sell opportunities. This is not financial advice, but buy now because cash is definitely not king right now!
You're correct! With the help of an investment coach, I was able to diversify my 450K portfolio across markets and produce slightly more than $830K in net profit from high dividend yield equities, ETFs, and bonds.
in 1990 I bought my previous house for 100k .... it started at 165k .. 3 years earlier and was a new build. My mate had bought a 1/2 share in a 1 bed for 70k ... within 400 yards of my 4 bed detached. In 1991 , my house was worth 83k and my mates house could be bought as a full share for 30k. It's happened before , it can happen again and what's left will be bought by the ones lucky enough to still have a job.
I like your content Darren but please go a bit softer on the clickbait titles, your audience is more intelligent than that and quite frankly it's off-putting
Good work Darren. What I would highlight is that it is in the best interest of Halifax & Nationwide to not draw a very bleak picture on property prices.
Here in Cumbria it has been the case for several months that properties come on the market & within a month are reduced by 10%-20%. This is not fantasy it shows up on Zoopla etc.. & yet we keep hearing that the housing market is doing ok. A buy-to let-property nearby is priced at about 65% less than an equivalent non-tenanted freehold property & it has been on the market 7 months. B2L is dying.
.5% per month ? Not a chance !! Most low-interest mortgages are now about to expire. It will be bloody. Buyers, keep your cool, there are bargains to be had. As for sellers, I’d get busy selling now !!!
The central bank raised rates at 0.25 every month, These declines will happen at a very slow rate, around 2 years to really adjust. Most people will sleep into this I feel
So you think homeowners, who even with higher rates, are still going to be paying less than equivalent rent, are somehow going to sell their property to renting buyers to pay more for their housing?
If I remember correctly the average mortgage debt in the UK is £127,000. If every single one of these mortgages were signed at bottom rates and will be remortgaged at the peak rate, we're talking about an average mortgage payment increase of £260 a month. This is an average, so there will be people with little to no increase and people with massive increases, but on average is £260. The most affected will be, of course, the buyers of the last 2 to 5 years. It hardly strike to me as an apocalypse...
This guy sold his home before the peak to become a tennant again. Every since he has been baying for a crash to vindicate his decision. A 25% rise is 2 years followed by a 5% correction in the next 2 years is hardly a crash
House prices to drop another 15% to 20% by end of 2024 especially south east & property over 700k . Its all to do with affordability & borrowing. Mid 2022 if you could afford £1k a month on a mortgage you could have borrowed 240k now you can only borrow £185k . Residential . Covid bonkers price increases & now long term higher interest rates are here for a long time . 1.5% mortgages a thing of history
wont be 0% interest rates again for a very long time, not in our lifetime. Inflation, high energy prices for the next generation and interest rates paints a grim picture, throw in the inevitable recession too and its going to be a blood bath in places
@@randomcomputer7248 one thing you cannot do is say never as no one can predict the future that’s what is so ridiculous about these videos and the daft comments
@@RobertGillontheinterweb Go boil your thick head and learn to read before criticizing others views. Point out where I said "never" please. Now what was that about daft comments ?
The massive crash that is imminent has not even started yet as House Builders & the financial industry are trying desperately to prop prices up. To sell and buy simultaneously will not be problematic but new buyers beware as whatever one buys will fall into negative equity within a matter of months. The blame falls on greedy house builders and foolish Government schemes.
If so, tiny and needs totally gutting that one. A larger comparable sold in December 22 at £335k and plenty other 3 bed detached under £350k completed in last 2 years. Looks like it was massively overpriced by the agent
@@RobertGillontheinterweb absolutely and the other one a bungalow 4bed in broadbottom was with purple bricks was 330k eventually went down to 260k and someone bid on that too
Don’t worry it’s called the Baider-Meinoff phenomenon the stats say that listings are just back at usual levels after being abnormally low during covid
Everyone is factoring in Inflation and Interest Rate Rises but no one is talking about the dreaded 'R' word.....Redundancies!!! The world is going to hell in a handcart and one thing that happens when business's start to panic is lay people off. We have shifted from a high wage, skilled economy to a low wage unskilled one, but with access to cheap credit over the last 10-15 years and the availabilty of work. Well, the cheap money has gone, interest rates we are being told will be higher for longer, and business's are getting the gitters with what is left of well paying jobs drying up. Personally, and may be wrong but where is there any good news for the housing market coming in 2024??
you know what??.... maybe some companies will fire en masse, others will do pay freezes but offer office shrinkflation....ie you worked 40 hours a week before....no pay rise, but you can have friday afternoons off, or 4 day weeks if you extend hours, or hybrid( for someone who commutes daily that would actually work quite well as less expense getting to the office)
benefit there to an employer is you can keep motivated and skilled staff should the work pick back up.Actually very important in some roles that require extensive training and staff have the better pick of places to ply their trade...not going to happen with hospitality though
@@bigmacntings7451 Some good points but when business's start looking at the bottom line a lot of sensible reasoning gets replaced with short-termism. I've seen plenty of very good and talented people get the boot. 1992, 2001 and 2008 all come to mind, and these were much less debt burdened times. Luckily at my age, getting a P45 may be the wake up call to retire gracefully!!
@@268dar Indeed it does fella, except sometime you get a Mike Tyson moment and get a smack in the face you never forget!! Always best to be prepared and avoid a very expensive dentist bill
House prices are high, but what's the alternative? Rents are at the highest too, and they keep increasing. Against the advice of everyone I know, I bought my home the past year at the very peak of the market. I knew it was the peak and I didn't care. I was able to fix a 3% interest rate for 10 years. Before, I was renting a one-bedroom, 22 square meters flat for £815 and I left just as the landlord increased the rent to £950. Now I'm paying £1,020 in mortgage for a two-bedroons, 70 square meters house with a 100 square meters garden. My old rental and my new home are perhaps 2 miles apart, and I live 25 minutes walking distance from the city centre. If, instead of a 3%, I got a 5.75% (which is the very peak interest rate) I'd be paying £1,550 for mortgage. The property beside mine (which is the same) is for rent at £1,350. If the alternative of buying is renting, it's just not worth it.
@@alistairrobinson3865 In my comment I only talked about price, but quality of life is also much better. For example, we can now have a pet, which was forbidden in rentals. More space, private garden, a house that is ours and we're free to change and improve... are all things to factor in.
love it! fair place - times are hard - set your stall out and think long term and reduce the blow - thank goodness for people like you - this chap is crazy he wants the crash {that wont.happen) - he planned for it all while sitting in rented accommodation on someone else’s risk - i hope they smash his rent up - its more his attitude to sellers tbh.
Dude knows about the market better than op and other guys. People keep saying hiking the interest would crash the house market, they ignore the rent is increasing too.
@@mejohnensor First, he sold his property. He needed an agency, and the agency alone wants a commission of maybe 1.5-2% of the selling price. He paid a solicitor. He then had to pay a company to move all his possessions and furniture out. He'll need a solicitor and inspectors to buy a new house and a moving company for the second time. He'll need to pay stamp duty. Then a new mortgage with all the relative fees. In the meantime he had to pay rent for a good couple of years, losing the chance of building equity. All of this exceeds £20,000 almost certainly . House prices have to drop a good 10-15% just for him to cut even. I don't understand why anyone would try to time the market risking the roof above their heads, betting on a (at least) 20-25% drop.
The figure to focus on is the unadjusted average cost reported which will continue to fall. No amount of property industry spin quoting average annual rates will change the trajectory in the slightest whilst interest rates remain at the current level.
Keep up the great work. This is not clickbait or boring. It's interesting to monitor the price collapse. I see comments criticising you or stating there is no crash, so I assume these individuals are panicking as they can now see that the crash is here and will continue for some time.
Am i missing something. Take his Ashford example. 3 bed houses appear to be on average around £325k to buy. Rent seems to be on average £1,400+. = 5.2% Return. Not too far off the best savings accounts you can get now. Hold it for a year or two, and it will be considerably better than the interest rate and houses prices will be back up meaning your return is even greater.
-5% during a period with 7% inflation is already pretty large real terms decrease, expect another 5% I reckon. Interesting analysis, geeky stuff, I love it
Have said this before but without an increase in supply, house prices won't fall as much as everyone is hoping, the rental market is still strong, construction is down and you're still comparing to peak time last year. A true comparison will be with Aug 24. Could also compare to pre COVID say AUG 19. Still think overall house prices long term e.g anything over 10 years will show YOY Increases.
rental market is only as strong as corporate financing allows people to be gainfully employed,and pay a nominal sum to the landlord/bank/mortgage company. In the olden days it was the rule of thirds. 33% is household running costs..ie mortgage,utilities,insurance 33% is general expenditure...ie food,transport/commuting,tv/phone/internet 33% is incidentals.........ie entertainments, maintenance,with a bit left over to treat the kids for an odd day out etc those balances are WAY overstretched right now.
from an investors perspective, is property going to make over 5% per year,risk free and tax free? if it will, then investment is go. if it will not, investment needs re-allocation to somewhere that will
im really not seeing any drops up north , maybe the odd property but thats only after the estate agents have strangled the very best they can get out of it for ages, theres no direct price drops im seeing
Worth a video is what Milton Friedman said, which is that at a certain point during a recession (which will come, forget yield curve inversion resetting and the meagre economic growth) that effective interest rates drop, continue to drop until they actually go up to infinite (and lending stops occurring). The bottom of the market may be at a point where lenders simply will not lend at, so buyers must time it to be before this point.
Meanwhile, Halifax is offering mortgages at sub-5%. From the article I found online: "with a 4.73% Homebuyer 5-year fixed rate with a £999 fee, and a 4.84% 5-year fixed rate with no fee, both up to 60% loan-to-value - and that 2-year fixed rate deals are also edging ever closer to 5%"
And Nationwide: "For new customers moving home, reductions of up to 0.45 per cent can be expected across two, three, five and ten-year fixed rate products up to 95 per cent LTV, including five-year fixed rate at 60% LTV with a £999 fee is 4.74% (reduced by 0.20%), five-year fixed rate at 90% LTV with a £999 fee is 5.25% (reduced by 0.15%) and three-year fixed rate at 60% LTV with a £999 fee is 4.99% (reduced by 0.45%)".
house prices picking up again. Oh what a shock. The "crash" ain't happening! Not while there's plenty of pent-up demand and your friendly Tory councillor or MP has ensured that demand will always outstrip supply. Massive amounts of net inward migration helps, regardless of what the MPs bleat about.
Don't forget prices quoted in the report are "seasonal adjusted", this is only meaningful in stable markets. Also I don't know of any published way that the real prices are adjusted. Now is the time to look at non-adjusted date and form your own view.
If values drop people won’t sell and builders won’t build. I know several people that have been told by their estate agents to hold onto their properties and building near me has slowed down or even stopped
in 1990 I bought my previous house for 100k .... it started at 165k .. 3 years earlier and was a new build. My mate had bought a 1/2 share in a 1 bed for 70k ... within 400 yards of my 4 bed detached. In 1991 , my house was worth 83k and my mates house could be bought as a full share for 30k. It's happened before , it can happen again and what's left will be bought by the ones lucky enough to still have a job.
The people trying to renew fixed rate mortgages will not be able to afford to pay the vastly higher mortgage repayments and will need to sell. New buyers cannot afford to buy equalling a mega problem. Builders will soon cease building and lay off staff as few new buyers , even though many are reducing asking prices . The panic has not set in yet , but as the daft schemes ; Help to Buy ; etc are dead in the water ; it is only a matter of time before the s… hits the fan sadly 😢
According to Foxton, in London there are 38 prospective tenants for every property on the rental market, which is massive. I agree with you, I don't see a crash. In the housing market is very easy to find information that confirm your bias: if you're looking for a crash you'll find tons of properties going down, if you're looking for boom you'll find tons of properties selling for high prices. For example, I can find lots and lots of downpriced properties in my area (£10-20,000 lower than just 6 months ago), but I also can find 2-bedrooms, 65 square meters new-builts for £600,000. This is why you should just rely on the bigger picture.
Any thoughts or predictions on interest rates on mortgages? First time buyer here, wondering what the implication of falling house price on interest rates are
The most important thing is to have a large as possible deposit and the willpower to resist the great looking bargains that first appear. The market is all about supply demand and affordability . The factors overlooked 33 years ago were greed & fear. House buyers were smiling as their home was going up in value each month by more than their monthly salary, and when the interest rates shot up they were giving their keys back to the banks. The fear then set in and Banks were instructing their surveyors and valuers to down value all properties , and anyone wanting to buy needed a very large deposit . As fixed rate mortgages expire many will not be able to afford the huge repayments . At the moment the Banks , Building Societies , builders are all conspiring to prop up prices in various ways. The bubble will burst by next may as springtime is historically a prime buying time of year and it is not going to happen 😢
@@keithclark3532 I’m looking to start viewing in April after years of building my deposit so fingers crossed I will find something I like in my budget.
Bit off topic as relates to rents but can anyone shed light on why a large letting agent would scam advertise a property for rent thats not actually for rent? Listed a false landlord registration number and property post code not on rental register. Its been listed on rightmove and on the market since 2nd Aug. They send application form via email but dont arrange viewings. Could it be pesky data harvesting? Can they be reported?
actually your thoughts do time quite well with government policy+ geopolitics. we've just had a few months of declining energy prices,interest rate pause,plus the Landlord EPC scrapping etc..enough to make people feel richer and speculators still gripping the slope of hope by the fingertips......now just last week we get the hamas situation(will probably escalate),and oil+gas etc go back up again, more inflation,more IR rises beginning of next year,which takes another 3 or 4 months to filter through to the real economy again....so spring 2024 is going to look brutal!
I think also christmas footfall in stores won't be looking at all rosy this year,so waves of unemployment to come as companies tighten their belts.(somebody else also said about the fixed rate deals ending)...if inflation+oil prices go up, then the swap rates go up in anticipation of further fiscal tightening....
If the average house price is 288,000 pounds are you really going to sit on the sidelines praying for a 10% crash just to save 28k over a 25 year mortgage period? My main concern would be what these politicians/ clowns are doing to interest rates because further increases will hurt buyers more than a slightly inflated purchase price.
Further interest rate increases or even just leaving them as they are will do more than just hurt buyers. Unless it goes back down in say the next year or two it'll result in thousands of repossessions and a nosedive in the economy. Such would be the extent it would cause massive civil unrest and possibly even a social revolution. That's why they will come back down.
When taking a mortgage out at current rates, a £28k saving is actually a £54k mortgage repayment when including interest payments over a 25 year period. And if its a 20% drop, (£56k) then the repayment required is equal to £108k. I don't particularly want negative equity and assuming I don't need to move then waiting 2-3 years is the equivalent of saving the entirety of someones annual salary for many years. Buying now means sacrificing the equivalent of multiple years of takehome pay. Interest rate hikes affect affordability / accessibility (demand) for both buyers and sellers.
looking back the average price of a house in october 2013 was £171,000, ten years later in september 2023, ten years later it is £278,000, that is an increase of £107,000, not bad as an investment and no rent to pay, I'm happy even if it goes down a bit as I will still have the same disposable money or even more as I have just put the rent up at my BTL's
Adjust it for inflation and you get a slightly different result - £171,000 in October 2013 is equivalent to around £260,000 in today's money. So about £20,000 in real value gained.
lets be honest, theres no logic can be applied to the price of a pile of bricks and mortar apart from the original materials and build cost, since it became the norm to think of houses as an investment rather than a home.
35% drop in asking prices maybe, when it all comes out in the wash actual sold prices will go down a bit, but they increased 25% during covid so they kind of have to seen as the average long term growth is just over 3%
@@jamiejones642 down 30% of what and where? If it’s 30% drops on asking prices I wouldn’t be surprised as the market turned in early 2022 but asking prices continued to increase and in some cases listing as still deaf to the market
House prices fall a bit after a period of very high increases. Wow how shocking! Actually, as usual, nothing shocking to see here from Mr clickbait. Hands up if you are a house owner and you are going to choose to sell up and join the totally dysfunctional rental market. Not expecting too many takers.
👋 I moved for a job in a much cheaper area. Sold our house for £5k over asking within 2 weeks of listing in January. Now renting which is costing us less than the interest we’re getting on our savings from our sale. We’re keeping an eye out for a bargain to buy but expect to wait at least until the new year to see what the Land Registry figures are. Hearing that mortgage surveys are often down valuing suggests that the market is “correcting” in many areas.
@@millythemidwife If you are getting more interest than your rental costs then you must have had a lowish (or no) mortgage. With a good block of cash to apply to your next purchase your strategy seems very sensible. Good luck.
I've been hearing that house prices are going to crash for the last 25 years. People who believed that narrative ended up renting all their lives..and regretting it.
And that one comment is the absolute truth. I know someone who believed this in the 90’s and sold to an investor. His 60k sale on a property now worth north of 300k with all the rent he has shovelled onto the pockets of his landlord. He would have been mortgage free by now. Ignore the market and just buy yourself a home to live in. Pay the mortgage off. Live a rent free retirement.
@@Marksavillmortgageadviser These are really some idiotic comments. I'm not saying that it's better to rent than to buy. All I'm saying is that now is the worst time to buy. You won't get richer by "saving" on rent in the next 1-2 years, but rest assured you can get huge bargains soon. Again, I'm talking about 1-2 years from now, not decades...
@@SycAamore I have worked in property for all my working life and one thing I have learned is buy rentals on yield without emotion and buy the home you want to live in a don’t even look at the market or the deal. Life is just too short and long term the property that is mortgage free when you finally repay it is 100% yours whatever it is worth. We bought in the last recession and in the 2021 boom. The former was a great price and a savage interest rate. The latter too high a price but it was the house we both wanted. We messed around with racehorses for a decade which skinted us so now I have a mortgage to age 75 but who cares. It is our home and that is all that matters. I am not even confident about these forecasts of mass price cuts. The rental market is pushing people into buying as rents are rising so strongly.
Monthly payment costs are all that matter in this current age. Terms will be manipulated to suit. 10x/20x doesn’t make a difference. I don’t agree with it, but car finance has been heavily driven this way. Houses the same. Keep those terms extending longer and longer. And other sneaky schemes on top
I’m moving house to get into top schools without continuing paying independent school fees. If the house I’m buying drops in price, so will the one I’ve just sold. Zero sum game for me. Also, in my experience during a price correction, the bigger houses (the ones I’m interested in) don’t come to market. Owners just sit tight and await a bounce.
Absolutely my experience of the housing market. I learned this the hard way 2009-2011 offering on multiple properties that were way overvalued but the owners didn’t need to sell. All these videos are working on the assumption that high mortgage rates will crash the market and that sellers are motivated. Reality is that 1/3rd of all properties are unencumbered and most mortgaged properties are low loan to value. People aren’t stupid they know that prices will continue to rise over time so if they don’t have to sell they just won’t
I love the grounded reality of this channel!!,Despite the recession, I no longer depend on Government Grants since I acquire $16,400 bi weekly profits.
March this year, I started an investment with Mr James , I invested $9000 which I went into his short-time trading and he helped me clear my Bank dept over $62,700.
Old people dying will bring more houses to the market. Remember there is a birth decline, so too many old people and not enough young people. This will result in an eventual increase in supply. These gains will be plundered once landlords realise they can't sell at a huge profit
One day maybe. However LEGAL migration was circa one million last year. A lot of those people are on good pay and all need somewhere to live. This is offset by 400K or so leaving the country but how many of those actually owned their home?
When financial institutions report any data like this with inflation or unemployment or whatever it's based on 12 month change. But that's really irrelevant all that matters is how far prices are off the peak and if they are continuing to fall down further or start rising back towards the peak.
These constant clickbait videos with only one topic of talking downhouse prices is getting tedious and is really off putting. Your gonna loose subscriptions and credibility if you keep continuing. You mentioned misleading headlines in this video, thats exactly what your own videos are doing. You can do better than this Darren .
10% - 15% drop over 2 years , big deal , we will go into recession due to all the other factors in the world , then they will have to drop interest rates, maybe not to what they were before but down to 2-3% and houses can gain 10% in month , its happened before and it'll happen again
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a shock is like 8% plus, anything else and it makes you clickbaity
As am American living here in the UK, I have always been dumbfounded on the mortgage market here. 2yr -5yr (rarely ever fixed) and renegotiate multiple times over the course of the loan. Too much of the UK's wealth is tied up in real estate. In the US, many have a 401k or reasonable pension to rely on for retirement. So, many have been brainwashed into thinking the only way to wealth in the UK is through property. Then, sell up and downsize for your retirement pot. Any sizeable correction in UK housing will basically cripple a generation's retirement and lead to bigger issues.
I advise you to invest in stocks to balance out your real estate, Even the worst recessions offer wonderful buying opportunities in the markets if you're cautious. Volatility can also result in excellent short-term buy and sell opportunities. This is not financial advice, but buy now because cash is definitely not king right now!
You're correct! With the help of an investment coach, I was able to diversify my 450K portfolio across markets and produce slightly more than $830K in net profit from high dividend yield equities, ETFs, and bonds.
@@mariaguerrero08 Would you mind providing details on the advisor who helped you?
CAMILLE ALICIA GARCIA maintains an online presence. Just make a simple search for her name online.
I located her, sent her an email, and scheduled a call; hopefully, she will reply because I want to start the new year off financially strong.
in 1990 I bought my previous house for 100k .... it started at 165k .. 3 years earlier and was a new build. My mate had bought a 1/2 share in a 1 bed for 70k ... within 400 yards of my 4 bed detached. In 1991 , my house was worth 83k and my mates house could be bought as a full share for 30k. It's happened before , it can happen again and what's left will be bought by the ones lucky enough to still have a job.
I like your content Darren but please go a bit softer on the clickbait titles, your audience is more intelligent than that and quite frankly it's off-putting
That's what I really dislike, decent quality content masked by title suggesting it's for idiots.
It is isn't it
Algorithms Harvey, Algorithms dear chap
Exactly what I've been thinking for weeks. Your comments are spot on.
@@lamb-chopsyou’re*
Good work Darren. What I would highlight is that it is in the best interest of Halifax & Nationwide to not draw a very bleak picture on property prices.
Here in Cumbria it has been the case for several months that properties come on the market & within a month are reduced by 10%-20%. This is not fantasy it shows up on Zoopla etc.. & yet we keep hearing that the housing market is doing ok. A buy-to let-property nearby is priced at about 65% less than an equivalent non-tenanted freehold property & it has been on the market 7 months. B2L is dying.
.5% per month ? Not a chance !! Most low-interest mortgages are now about to expire. It will be bloody.
Buyers, keep your cool, there are bargains to be had.
As for sellers, I’d get busy selling now !!!
The central bank raised rates at 0.25 every month, These declines will happen at a very slow rate, around 2 years to really adjust.
Most people will sleep into this I feel
So you think homeowners, who even with higher rates, are still going to be paying less than equivalent rent, are somehow going to sell their property to renting buyers to pay more for their housing?
Time in the market always beats trying to time the market
If I remember correctly the average mortgage debt in the UK is £127,000. If every single one of these mortgages were signed at bottom rates and will be remortgaged at the peak rate, we're talking about an average mortgage payment increase of £260 a month. This is an average, so there will be people with little to no increase and people with massive increases, but on average is £260. The most affected will be, of course, the buyers of the last 2 to 5 years. It hardly strike to me as an apocalypse...
This guy sold his home before the peak to become a tennant again. Every since he has been baying for a crash to vindicate his decision.
A 25% rise is 2 years followed by a 5% correction in the next 2 years is hardly a crash
House prices to drop another 15% to 20% by end of 2024 especially south east & property over 700k . Its all to do with affordability & borrowing. Mid 2022 if you could afford £1k a month on a mortgage you could have borrowed 240k now you can only borrow £185k . Residential . Covid bonkers price increases & now long term higher interest rates are here for a long time . 1.5% mortgages a thing of history
wont be 0% interest rates again for a very long time, not in our lifetime. Inflation, high energy prices for the next generation and interest rates paints a grim picture, throw in the inevitable recession too and its going to be a blood bath in places
@@randomcomputer7248 one thing you cannot do is say never as no one can predict the future that’s what is so ridiculous about these videos and the daft comments
@@RobertGillontheinterweb Go boil your thick head and learn to read before criticizing others views. Point out where I said "never" please.
Now what was that about daft comments ?
The massive crash that is imminent has not even started yet as House Builders & the financial industry are trying desperately to prop prices up. To sell and buy simultaneously will not be problematic but new buyers beware as whatever one buys will fall into negative equity within a matter of months. The blame falls on greedy house builders and foolish Government schemes.
Some houses in mottram Hyde have dropped from 450 to 375k then bid on and 330 down to 260 and bid on many more too realistic prices now coming back
I would ask you to prove that please
Was the £375k the 3 bed detached, Spout Green?
If so, tiny and needs totally gutting that one. A larger comparable sold in December 22 at £335k and plenty other 3 bed detached under £350k completed in last 2 years. Looks like it was massively overpriced by the agent
@@RobertGillontheinterweb absolutely and the other one a bungalow 4bed in broadbottom was with purple bricks was 330k eventually went down to 260k and someone bid on that too
@@mark196233 done so on comments below apparently someone asked the same question they knew one of the detached properties.
There appears to be far more For Sale boards around where I live in SE London/Kent. October is not usually a time houses are placed on the market.
Don’t worry it’s called the Baider-Meinoff phenomenon the stats say that listings are just back at usual levels after being abnormally low during covid
Everyone is factoring in Inflation and Interest Rate Rises but no one is talking about the dreaded 'R' word.....Redundancies!!! The world is going to hell in a handcart and one thing that happens when business's start to panic is lay people off. We have shifted from a high wage, skilled economy to a low wage unskilled one, but with access to cheap credit over the last 10-15 years and the availabilty of work. Well, the cheap money has gone, interest rates we are being told will be higher for longer, and business's are getting the gitters with what is left of well paying jobs drying up. Personally, and may be wrong but where is there any good news for the housing market coming in 2024??
you know what??.... maybe some companies will fire en masse, others will do pay freezes but offer office shrinkflation....ie you worked 40 hours a week before....no pay rise, but you can have friday afternoons off, or 4 day weeks if you extend hours, or hybrid( for someone who commutes daily that would actually work quite well as less expense getting to the office)
benefit there to an employer is you can keep motivated and skilled staff should the work pick back up.Actually very important in some roles that require extensive training and staff have the better pick of places to ply their trade...not going to happen with hospitality though
@@bigmacntings7451 Some good points but when business's start looking at the bottom line a lot of sensible reasoning gets replaced with short-termism. I've seen plenty of very good and talented people get the boot. 1992, 2001 and 2008 all come to mind, and these were much less debt burdened times. Luckily at my age, getting a P45 may be the wake up call to retire gracefully!!
The world is always about to go to hell in a hellcart and the world always bumbles on somehow
@@268dar Indeed it does fella, except sometime you get a Mike Tyson moment and get a smack in the face you never forget!! Always best to be prepared and avoid a very expensive dentist bill
Would be interested in seeing a video of how to analyse price movements by area.
House prices are high, but what's the alternative? Rents are at the highest too, and they keep increasing.
Against the advice of everyone I know, I bought my home the past year at the very peak of the market. I knew it was the peak and I didn't care. I was able to fix a 3% interest rate for 10 years. Before, I was renting a one-bedroom, 22 square meters flat for £815 and I left just as the landlord increased the rent to £950. Now I'm paying £1,020 in mortgage for a two-bedroons, 70 square meters house with a 100 square meters garden. My old rental and my new home are perhaps 2 miles apart, and I live 25 minutes walking distance from the city centre. If, instead of a 3%, I got a 5.75% (which is the very peak interest rate) I'd be paying £1,550 for mortgage. The property beside mine (which is the same) is for rent at £1,350. If the alternative of buying is renting, it's just not worth it.
Well done, aslong as it stacks up for you at the time it was the right thing. Doesn’t matter when you buy, only when you sell! 🙏
@@alistairrobinson3865 In my comment I only talked about price, but quality of life is also much better. For example, we can now have a pet, which was forbidden in rentals. More space, private garden, a house that is ours and we're free to change and improve... are all things to factor in.
love it! fair place - times are hard - set your stall out and think long term and reduce the blow - thank goodness for people like you - this chap is crazy he wants the crash {that wont.happen) - he planned for it all while sitting in rented accommodation on someone else’s risk - i hope they smash his rent up - its more his attitude to sellers tbh.
Dude knows about the market better than op and other guys. People keep saying hiking the interest would crash the house market, they ignore the rent is increasing too.
@@mejohnensor First, he sold his property. He needed an agency, and the agency alone wants a commission of maybe 1.5-2% of the selling price. He paid a solicitor. He then had to pay a company to move all his possessions and furniture out. He'll need a solicitor and inspectors to buy a new house and a moving company for the second time. He'll need to pay stamp duty. Then a new mortgage with all the relative fees. In the meantime he had to pay rent for a good couple of years, losing the chance of building equity. All of this exceeds £20,000 almost certainly . House prices have to drop a good 10-15% just for him to cut even. I don't understand why anyone would try to time the market risking the roof above their heads, betting on a (at least) 20-25% drop.
The real crash is only starting
The figure to focus on is the unadjusted average cost reported which will continue to fall. No amount of property industry spin quoting average annual rates will change the trajectory in the slightest whilst interest rates remain at the current level.
I don't see this event in the news headlines, I don't hear the screams. where are the bodies? 😐
Still expect another 20% drop from current prices
This doesn’t include cash buyers, wait for land registry prices.
Keep up the great work. This is not clickbait or boring. It's interesting to monitor the price collapse. I see comments criticising you or stating there is no crash, so I assume these individuals are panicking as they can now see that the crash is here and will continue for some time.
Still waiting for an answer on what percentage drop you are correlating as a 'crash'...
He's been saying prices are "crashing" for months.....bollocks.
He will be screaming crash right up to the point he buys his new house. Then he’ll be calling bottom 😂
a@@paulgrep3193 he's just clickbait
Am i missing something.
Take his Ashford example.
3 bed houses appear to be on average around £325k to buy.
Rent seems to be on average £1,400+.
= 5.2% Return.
Not too far off the best savings accounts you can get now. Hold it for a year or two, and it will be considerably better than the interest rate and houses prices will be back up meaning your return is even greater.
-5% during a period with 7% inflation is already pretty large real terms decrease, expect another 5% I reckon. Interesting analysis, geeky stuff, I love it
How about the serious time lag? Sept 2023 deal prices won't be told until 6-9 months down the road.
Have said this before but without an increase in supply, house prices won't fall as much as everyone is hoping, the rental market is still strong, construction is down and you're still comparing to peak time last year. A true comparison will be with Aug 24. Could also compare to pre COVID say AUG 19. Still think overall house prices long term e.g anything over 10 years will show YOY Increases.
rental market is only as strong as corporate financing allows people to be gainfully employed,and pay a nominal sum to the landlord/bank/mortgage company.
In the olden days it was the rule of thirds.
33% is household running costs..ie mortgage,utilities,insurance
33% is general expenditure...ie food,transport/commuting,tv/phone/internet
33% is incidentals.........ie entertainments, maintenance,with a bit left over to treat the kids for an odd day out etc
those balances are WAY overstretched right now.
I should say this is determined on NET pay.
Prices about to crash 💥
annual rate of decline slowing will not be reported as a decline!!....it will be masively spun as an improvement.
It has begun..
How about some analysis per region? Looking at overall prices ignoring the local factor, doesn’t help a lot if not investors.
from an investors perspective, is property going to make over 5% per year,risk free and tax free?
if it will, then investment is go.
if it will not, investment needs re-allocation to somewhere that will
im really not seeing any drops up north , maybe the odd property but thats only after the estate agents have strangled the very best they can get out of it for ages, theres no direct price drops im seeing
Worth a video is what Milton Friedman said, which is that at a certain point during a recession (which will come, forget yield curve inversion resetting and the meagre economic growth) that effective interest rates drop, continue to drop until they actually go up to infinite (and lending stops occurring).
The bottom of the market may be at a point where lenders simply will not lend at, so buyers must time it to be before this point.
So cash buyers can wait till when no mortgage is available
@@SilverWong-yo5iu yes, cash buyers should wait until the recession really bites - and liquidity in mortgage debt market drys up.
😂😂😂
So after any crash you care to mention when have they not recovered
Houses go up not down
Supply demand it’s not hard to get your head round
Meanwhile, Halifax is offering mortgages at sub-5%. From the article I found online: "with a 4.73% Homebuyer 5-year fixed rate with a £999 fee, and a 4.84% 5-year fixed rate with no fee, both up to 60% loan-to-value - and that 2-year fixed rate deals are also edging ever closer to 5%"
And Nationwide: "For new customers moving home, reductions of up to 0.45 per cent can be expected across two, three, five and ten-year fixed rate products up to 95 per cent LTV, including five-year fixed rate at 60% LTV with a £999 fee is 4.74% (reduced by 0.20%), five-year fixed rate at 90% LTV with a £999 fee is 5.25% (reduced by 0.15%) and three-year fixed rate at 60% LTV with a £999 fee is 4.99% (reduced by 0.45%)".
Three months have passed since my last comment. Now multiple lenders offer sub-4% mortgages. With a 40% deposit you can now get an interest of 3.84%.
house prices picking up again. Oh what a shock. The "crash" ain't happening! Not while there's plenty of pent-up demand and your friendly Tory councillor or MP has ensured that demand will always outstrip supply. Massive amounts of net inward migration helps, regardless of what the MPs bleat about.
Don't forget prices quoted in the report are "seasonal adjusted", this is only meaningful in stable markets. Also I don't know of any published way that the real prices are adjusted. Now is the time to look at non-adjusted date and form your own view.
"Twenty twenty free".
if you try buy your house back how much do you will pay today? is less or more the price you sell?
Once they settle near 3x the average annual earnings, the bottom will be in.
Really useful info 👍 Thanks
If values drop people won’t sell and builders won’t build. I know several people that have been told by their estate agents to hold onto their properties and building near me has slowed down or even stopped
in 1990 I bought my previous house for 100k .... it started at 165k .. 3 years earlier and was a new build. My mate had bought a 1/2 share in a 1 bed for 70k ... within 400 yards of my 4 bed detached. In 1991 , my house was worth 83k and my mates house could be bought as a full share for 30k. It's happened before , it can happen again and what's left will be bought by the ones lucky enough to still have a job.
The people trying to renew fixed rate mortgages will not be able to afford to pay the vastly higher mortgage repayments and will need to sell. New buyers cannot afford to buy equalling a mega problem. Builders will soon cease building and lay off staff as few new buyers , even though many are reducing asking prices . The panic has not set in yet , but as the daft schemes ; Help to Buy ; etc are dead in the water ; it is only a matter of time before the s… hits the fan sadly 😢
Another rise in November - what's driving the price increases? Large lockdown savings still there to use in buying property?
Looking at today's headlines, your Bang on again 🔥🔥🔥🔥
Any chance of some regional analysis?
Prices need to drop 30% at least stupidly over inflated which people believed
Yet massive queues exist for rental applications.
I don't see a crash. Owners will just hold rather than sell.
According to Foxton, in London there are 38 prospective tenants for every property on the rental market, which is massive.
I agree with you, I don't see a crash. In the housing market is very easy to find information that confirm your bias: if you're looking for a crash you'll find tons of properties going down, if you're looking for boom you'll find tons of properties selling for high prices. For example, I can find lots and lots of downpriced properties in my area (£10-20,000 lower than just 6 months ago), but I also can find 2-bedrooms, 65 square meters new-builts for £600,000. This is why you should just rely on the bigger picture.
Any thoughts or predictions on interest rates on mortgages? First time buyer here, wondering what the implication of falling house price on interest rates are
House prices don’t determine interest rates. I’m a FTB too, just get your deposit up to get the better interest rates from lenders.
The most important thing is to have a large as possible deposit and the willpower to resist the great looking bargains that first appear. The market is all about supply demand and affordability . The factors overlooked 33 years ago were greed & fear. House buyers were smiling as their home was going up in value each month by more than their monthly salary, and when the interest rates shot up they were giving their keys back to the banks. The fear then set in and Banks were instructing their surveyors and valuers to down value all properties , and anyone wanting to buy needed a very large deposit . As fixed rate mortgages expire many will not be able to afford the huge repayments . At the moment the Banks , Building Societies , builders are all conspiring to prop up prices in various ways. The bubble will burst by next may as springtime is historically a prime buying time of year and it is not going to happen 😢
@@keithclark3532 I’m looking to start viewing in April after years of building my deposit so fingers crossed I will find something I like in my budget.
Bit off topic as relates to rents but can anyone shed light on why a large letting agent would scam advertise a property for rent thats not actually for rent? Listed a false landlord registration number and property post code not on rental register. Its been listed on rightmove and on the market since 2nd Aug. They send application form via email but dont arrange viewings. Could it be pesky data harvesting? Can they be reported?
What postcode is this property
actually your thoughts do time quite well with government policy+ geopolitics.
we've just had a few months of declining energy prices,interest rate pause,plus the Landlord EPC scrapping etc..enough to make people feel richer and speculators still gripping the slope of hope by the fingertips......now just last week we get the hamas situation(will probably escalate),and oil+gas etc go back up again, more inflation,more IR rises beginning of next year,which takes another 3 or 4 months to filter through to the real economy again....so spring 2024 is going to look brutal!
I think also christmas footfall in stores won't be looking at all rosy this year,so waves of unemployment to come as companies tighten their belts.(somebody else also said about the fixed rate deals ending)...if inflation+oil prices go up, then the swap rates go up in anticipation of further fiscal tightening....
If the average house price is 288,000 pounds are you really going to sit on the sidelines praying for a 10% crash just to save 28k over a 25 year mortgage period? My main concern would be what these politicians/ clowns are doing to interest rates because further increases will hurt buyers more than a slightly inflated purchase price.
Further interest rate increases or even just leaving them as they are will do more than just hurt buyers. Unless it goes back down in say the next year or two it'll result in thousands of repossessions and a nosedive in the economy. Such would be the extent it would cause massive civil unrest and possibly even a social revolution. That's why they will come back down.
When taking a mortgage out at current rates, a £28k saving is actually a £54k mortgage repayment when including interest payments over a 25 year period.
And if its a 20% drop, (£56k) then the repayment required is equal to £108k. I don't particularly want negative equity and assuming I don't need to move then waiting 2-3 years is the equivalent of saving the entirety of someones annual salary for many years.
Buying now means sacrificing the equivalent of multiple years of takehome pay. Interest rate hikes affect affordability / accessibility (demand) for both buyers and sellers.
Civil unrest because houses are more affordable 😂
@@cybermuse6917 renting now is worse in most areas
If you're spending a million it makes a big difference
looking back the average price of a house in october 2013 was £171,000, ten years later in september 2023, ten years later it is £278,000, that is an increase of £107,000, not bad as an investment and no rent to pay, I'm happy even if it goes down a bit as I will still have the same disposable money or even more as I have just put the rent up at my BTL's
Adjust it for inflation and you get a slightly different result - £171,000 in October 2013 is equivalent to around £260,000 in today's money. So about £20,000 in real value gained.
Not dropping were I am, let's wait and see and I guess there are local variations
lets be honest, theres no logic can be applied to the price of a pile of bricks and mortar apart from the original materials and build cost, since it became the norm to think of houses as an investment rather than a home.
Thank you for the info 👌
35% drop is coming to a house near you.
Dream on. You're forgetting that inflation is 10% so real prices are already down 15% while wages are increasing and interest rates are falling.
35% drop in asking prices maybe, when it all comes out in the wash actual sold prices will go down a bit, but they increased 25% during covid so they kind of have to seen as the average long term growth is just over 3%
@@scottmyers9850dream on even though prices are already down 15%? Nothings really happened yet so 35% can happen very easily.
😂 houses are already down 30% where I live I'm hoping for a 70% drop 😂😂😂
@@jamiejones642 down 30% of what and where? If it’s 30% drops on asking prices I wouldn’t be surprised as the market turned in early 2022 but asking prices continued to increase and in some cases listing as still deaf to the market
My house went up again this month on zoopla. Despite certain characters praying for a collapse.
Thanks a lot for your information. I always enjoy watching your channel. We are lucky to have you.
Already over 300 company in construction only this year close their business.This is just only the begin the UK will down the economy in next 5 years.
Is housing market immune from the UK overall falling home price?
We could see an accelerated decline.
House prices fall a bit after a period of very high increases. Wow how shocking!
Actually, as usual, nothing shocking to see here from Mr clickbait.
Hands up if you are a house owner and you are going to choose to sell up and join the totally dysfunctional rental market. Not expecting too many takers.
👋 I moved for a job in a much cheaper area. Sold our house for £5k over asking within 2 weeks of listing in January. Now renting which is costing us less than the interest we’re getting on our savings from our sale. We’re keeping an eye out for a bargain to buy but expect to wait at least until the new year to see what the Land Registry figures are. Hearing that mortgage surveys are often down valuing suggests that the market is “correcting” in many areas.
@@millythemidwife If you are getting more interest than your rental costs then you must have had a lowish (or no) mortgage. With a good block of cash to apply to your next purchase your strategy seems very sensible. Good luck.
Uk is falling apart
Most of my UK friends
Leaving to Dubai or Canada
UK is falling
great info. it crazy to think though how to most people this information means nothing because most cannot even dream of owning a home!
Click bait again !!!
I've been hearing that house prices are going to crash for the last 25 years. People who believed that narrative ended up renting all their lives..and regretting it.
Very clueless comment indeed...
@SycAamore Says clueless renter.
And that one comment is the absolute truth. I know someone who believed this in the 90’s and sold to an investor. His 60k sale on a property now worth north of 300k with all the rent he has shovelled onto the pockets of his landlord. He would have been mortgage free by now. Ignore the market and just buy yourself a home to live in. Pay the mortgage off. Live a rent free retirement.
@@Marksavillmortgageadviser These are really some idiotic comments. I'm not saying that it's better to rent than to buy. All I'm saying is that now is the worst time to buy. You won't get richer by "saving" on rent in the next 1-2 years, but rest assured you can get huge bargains soon. Again, I'm talking about 1-2 years from now, not decades...
@@SycAamore I have worked in property for all my working life and one thing I have learned is buy rentals on yield without emotion and buy the home you want to live in a don’t even look at the market or the deal. Life is just too short and long term the property that is mortgage free when you finally repay it is 100% yours whatever it is worth. We bought in the last recession and in the 2021 boom. The former was a great price and a savage interest rate. The latter too high a price but it was the house we both wanted. We messed around with racehorses for a decade which skinted us so now I have a mortgage to age 75 but who cares. It is our home and that is all that matters. I am not even confident about these forecasts of mass price cuts. The rental market is pushing people into buying as rents are rising so strongly.
Forever mortgages will never be accepted. Nobody can afford a house 10x their salary, even though the banks want to trap you.
Monthly payment costs are all that matter in this current age. Terms will be manipulated to suit. 10x/20x doesn’t make a difference.
I don’t agree with it, but car finance has been heavily driven this way. Houses the same. Keep those terms extending longer and longer. And other sneaky schemes on top
Not much point in a forever morgage if you have to do all the maintenance. And if you don't have kids and retired what then
I’m moving house to get into top schools without continuing paying independent school fees. If the house I’m buying drops in price, so will the one I’ve just sold. Zero sum game for me. Also, in my experience during a price correction, the bigger houses (the ones I’m interested in) don’t come to market. Owners just sit tight and await a bounce.
Absolutely my experience of the housing market. I learned this the hard way 2009-2011 offering on multiple properties that were way overvalued but the owners didn’t need to sell. All these videos are working on the assumption that high mortgage rates will crash the market and that sellers are motivated. Reality is that 1/3rd of all properties are unencumbered and most mortgaged properties are low loan to value. People aren’t stupid they know that prices will continue to rise over time so if they don’t have to sell they just won’t
Super click bait and bollocks, soon to unsubscribe, please sort it out
Totally agree
Oh no you’re going to missed so much NOT bye bye Dave! 👋
Tara 👋
What? It’s okay to critique when somethings not right. Don’t blindly follow sub standard shit.
Haha, this guy sold his house and is paying rent waiting for the crash 😂
Nope. He sold and rented because there was fuck all to buy. So stop being a bell end. 😊 👋
He surely made a mistake but I admire the fact that he put his money where his mouth is, which is a quality I guess...
And if that happens as you say there will have been a whopping 10.25% fall in 2 years. It’s nowhere near as bad as I expected.
You’re the 🐐
People don’t believe all you hear. Price corrections happen.
Lad looks like an alien
says the warthog
@@wedocam your mam certainly like me troughing her snatch.
@@sebluketravis2438 sure thing little piggy
@@sebluketravis2438You're HOT
Give over ffs
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Wow that's a lot , How do you get that?
it's all thanks to Mr James Werden, he's trading strategies are the best
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Old people dying will bring more houses to the market. Remember there is a birth decline, so too many old people and not enough young people. This will result in an eventual increase in supply. These gains will be plundered once landlords realise they can't sell at a huge profit
One day maybe. However LEGAL migration was circa one million last year. A lot of those people are on good pay and all need somewhere to live. This is offset by 400K or so leaving the country but how many of those actually owned their home?
When financial institutions report any data like this with inflation or unemployment or whatever it's based on 12 month change. But that's really irrelevant all that matters is how far prices are off the peak and if they are continuing to fall down further or start rising back towards the peak.
These constant clickbait videos with only one topic of talking downhouse prices is getting tedious and is really off putting. Your gonna loose subscriptions and credibility if you keep continuing. You mentioned misleading headlines in this video, thats exactly what your own videos are doing. You can do better than this Darren .
Boo boo mate
House prices regularly drop 30%, it is just that some of the time it takes years and is masked by high inflation.
Lol you still pushing this crash none sense, you’re wrong, we have too many migrants for it to ever drop!
This guy should be dooms day spokesperson 😅😅😅😅 come on man!!
Ok I give up this is the most triggering channel on RUclips. It should be renamed Pseudostats. Or Quasiconomics. 😂
if government doesn’t intervene then house price will be normalised
10% - 15% drop over 2 years , big deal , we will go into recession due to all the other factors in the world , then they will have to drop interest rates, maybe not to what they were before but down to 2-3% and houses can gain 10% in month , its happened before and it'll happen again
In 2 weeks everyone is wiped out. I tried to warn everyone