Why Are House Prices Not Crashing?
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- Опубликовано: 11 ноя 2023
- UK house prices rose last month, defying months of predictions that the market would collapse. What is going on?
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So.. are we just not going to discuss the prime product placement?
Haha i see how it looks like that..
You probably wont believe me but it 100% is not product placement, there was another section I cut out the video because it had an error in it that gave context to the prime (scroll below you will see comments about it)
My sons like prime, I can’t stand Logan Paul because of the crypto zoo thing. I will pin this comment as I am sure a few people will wonder why there is a random bottle of prime in the video. Maybe me claiming my distain for Logan will prove it is not paid promotion.
I don't think Prime rely on personal finance channels for publicity tbh...
@DamienTalksMoney I'm so used to seeing adds for it now, and it is in premium eyeline locations in every shop. It's made me so cynical that I just can't believe anyone actually drinks it.
I'm glad you cleared that up and pleased I was mistaken.
So not only do you want to have access to Damien's IP, you also want to ensure he can't make a few bucks from it. So what even if it was a product placement. Petty people like you are exactly why content creators get exasperated and give up.
@@brootusx
I don't think many people do, in Europe anyway, judging by the hundreds of pallets of the stuff I see advertised for sale, cheap, because it's going out of date 😁
I had no idea it was anything to do with Logan Paul though.
I also have no idea who Logan Paul is though.
I feared a housing crash due to people buying homes above asking prices with little equity. If prices drop, affordability and potential foreclosures may arise, worsened by future layoffs and rising living costs. I want to invest more than $300k, but I'm not sure on how to mitigate risk.
Consider reallocating from real estate to stocks. Severe recessions offer market buying opportunities with caution, as volatility can yield short-term trading prospects. Not financial advice but it may be wise to invest, as cash isn't ideal in this period. I simply adopted the service of an advisor early 2020 amid covid-outbreak, and so far, I've attained my most measurable financial milestone of $650k after subsequent investments.
Hi, please could share more insight for someone who has been in the red for too long? Also I could use some referral, how do I reach the expert that assists you? Is she consistent?
@@roddywoods8130 The adviser I'm in touch with is (Marisol Cordova). She works with Merrill Lynch near my old office so I see her often to discuss my business. You can use something else. for me, her strategy works hence my result. She provides entry and exit point for the securities I focus on
Yeah must be that and deffo not importing over a million people every year...
You cover complex, boring but essential topics and do so in an informative and effective way. You’re a very gifted communicator, Damo, power to you.
Thank you so much, this is lovely feedback! Honestly I needed to hear this
Not boring to everyone. I find it educational and insightful and puts things into perspective for me.
A lot of people still on low fixed rate mortgages, more and more will come off them and that's when it will hurt. Mine is expected to go up by over £300 next spring.
The reason prices aren't falling is the same reason that house prices have gone up for decades, demand outstrips supply. I know demand has reduced but there is still a huge lack of supply.
Also, the build costs have gone through the roof, (no pun intended), so not enough new stock coupled with high build costs, means prices head north.
@@garylake1676 Agreed and more people in search of homes should also head North, where they will get much more for their money.
Centre bank digital currency is far more worrying for all of us.
2 years ago, experts said prices were going to CRASH.
I said they were going to be wrong back then. People said we were stupid for buying a larger house at the “peak”.
Guess what…except for rubbish homes that were selling for a huge premium 2 years ago simply because nothing was on the market, good homes have stayed stable or seen growth.
Never bet against the housing market. If 2008 didn’t kill it, then nothing will.
Having listed twice this year, buyers are offering 15 to 20% below asking prices even if reduced to reflect downward trend. My home is outright owned. You are right I can wait several years so I am not motivated.
The knock on effect is that there are not many homes available to purchase. It makes sense for some people to wait.
If you sell at 15 percent below and then buy at 15 percent below then you can get on and move without loss,provided you are not buying a materially cheaper house (where loss on yours would be more than saving on next)
The trend is that first time buyers don't want to be spending hundreds of thousands on a property they are unlikely to pay down, let alone pay off.
Its buyng the right home too- not easy when you see houses 100k more expensive but worse than the one ur selling. Just because its nearer a station or city centre etc
Before I ever became a first time buyer, many years before I bought my own home, when I lived at the family home with my parents, I worked full time and though it was a low paid job, I paid my parents a small rent and after that saved every penny I could to put towards a good deposit on my first home. I saved a hundred pounds here and there for over ten years. Then finally at the age of 34 I decided to buy my first home. It was at this point that the wisdom of what I had done became apparent. I managed to buy my three bed semi detached house with such a high amount of deposit that the outstanding mortgage amount is so low it runs out at a current repayment of £250 pcm. Plus I have a single person mortgage despite only being on a wage of £28k per year.
My advice to anyone young out there is to think of your future early and start saving deposit money asap towards your own home if that is your goal. It is no good taking on a 95% or 90% mortgage on a £300k+ house.
INVEST the money, saving isn't enough
Yes, but, invest in what? It's a very big but.@@adsadam1
What was the price you paid then?
whats wrong with taking out a 90% mortgage on a 300k house if you can comfortably afford the repayment? dont be short sighted not everybody earns 28k at the age of 34
@@mssbed enjoy making the bank rich and staying poor lol
Not many people understand but the price to build a house has doubled in the last two years. There isn’t going to be any affordable homes unless the government pays for them. Every single developer is renegotiating their 106 because the costs don’t stack up. The new building regs are extreme and will add another 15% to build costs. Utilities have trebled in the last year. Funding costs have doubled over night. None of these higher costs are going to return back. House prices will double in the next five years.
Situation isn’t helped by politicians like Starmer nostalgically lionising his parents experience of receiving an affordable property in the 1970’s and thinking he can naively do the same. Skipping over the inconvenient cost of full fill cavity insulation to walls, roof and foundation that where not required in the 70’s along with other costs such as CIL and the incoming nutrient neutrality.
Buddy I am not going to watch the full video but I am going to say this.
The true reason house prices are not and will not fall fast is because all us sellers are in the same boat we can not go lower until other houses drop in price to buy after this one BUT that is the same for the other people selling so everyone is in a stalemate no one can afford to take less for their house if they can not buy a follow on property pretty simple really.
I wouldn't worry about going too far with editing of your videos Damien. I watch you because you are real and talk sense !!
Thank you Eamon really reassuring feedback this.
hear hear!
Agreed, you do a sterling job but if taking some pressure off by outsourcing is viable and helps you create the same level of content with an improvement to quality of life then I’m all for it, really valuable resource.
I live in a small village in national park. Houses here usually sell within 2 weeks of going up for sale. There are two good quality 3 bed houses, both renovated, both with views across open countryside, that have been on the market for 7 months. One is grossly overpriced, but the other is an absolute steal at £300K. No interest. People now can't afford £250K+ mortgages at 7% rates, and sellers are so used to sky high prices, they're unwilling to sell considerably lower. No doubt some of them won't be able to afford as they'd find themselves selling for less than their current outstanding mortgage.
Great work. I very much appreciate your balanced analysis. Especially the last part when you say that the only market which matters is the one where you live or want to buy.
Houses can't reduce in price when the value of your currency is decreasing
This is an interesting point, in dollar terms the market has already crashed
Exactly, tho most folk who where born or who live inside the U.K. fail to realise this simple economic fact has become for better, or worse ‘normalised’ for the last 45 years.
Gradually expanding easily available credit to compensate, and observance of the rule of law has allowed the U.K. to avoid becoming a European Argentina
/\ your mate down the pub
@@Jdmess9 It’s nice to have mates 👍
Can, and have many times.
The whole idea of motivated sellers and the comparison with overpriced coconut water is so relatable. It's crazy how the average prices can be deceiving.
Yeah mate you think you can trust the average but actually consider how hard it is to say what ‘average’ is when it comes to houses
I laugh at some of the clearly rip off chancer prices even on Amazon. I bought a roof cover for a robot mower for 50 and another guy wants 170 both on amazon tsssk !
I know it's a contentious topic, but it would be good to have a video that considers the effect of net immigration on house prices.
True. He mentions demand and supply... but not the 500k net migration into the UK propping up demand
Yep. It's a key component
Respect the lag. Markets as liquid as housing have huge inertia. They will collapse, just a matter of time. Inertia also carries price further past the meme so expect a better discount. Unemployment will be the driver
I've been watching this for 30 years. No crash coming. Just a slow down and slight decline before another massive price jump. I mean, which governments are looking to produce an oversupply of housing? None. Any increase in supply is temporary at best. Governments are motivated to ensure housing remains a good investment. This is what voters who matter want, such as those who own their home outright. Politicians pay the poor and those without homes lip service while making decisions which ensure that housing prices will remain unreasonably high globally. And as long as we have humans in charge this is the way things will continue to be. The only real way out of this is through a painfully slow process of increasing density.
If you think we can force things to be different, then you should be aware that we've already tried in modern times. China is the example of what not to do. You can't force this issue while humans are in charge. As long as humans are in control, we're not seeing any housing crash any time soon. Not except for wars, disasters, and small pockets which experience temporary change.
But also, people will keep predicting a crash. Month after month. Year after year. "No really guys, the crash is coming this time! So get ready to buy that home you gave up on!"
I have seen so many crashes predicted and the sad part is it puts some people off buying. Roll forward and years later they are still paying rent because the crash never materialised and suddenly prices have made the purchase unaffordable for them.
One of the main reason housing hasn’t collapsed, as you mention, is that unemployment hasn’t risen alongside interest rates. Even the modest unemployment raise is usually with the younger generation who aren’t home owners to begin with, and likely weren’t potential buyers anyway. Because older homeowners aren’t losing their jobs - that reduces supply.
My mate works in weinerburger brick factory up north and they usually hold around 6 million bricks per week with the maximum around 24 million they now have stock piled around 15 million and they told everyone in the factory they are getting laid off in January and are switching off two of the kilns cause they make more money selling the gas back to big gas companies, builders can’t afford to do developments because of the inflation which all this effects the supply people think houses will crash but knowing this I can only see them increasing! There needs to be radical change from the top down to the way we think about housing
I think the numbers have yet to come through for unemployment. Certainly for my employer they're shedding most of their contractors and consultants. This is now feeling free with the likes of PWC and the other major Consulting firms beginning to cut their workforce. The major impact of unemployment will only just begin to kick in.
@@liamsheridan3814my guess would be is the likelihood of this, is it will force house prices up even further if there are no new ones are being built and the population is expanding at the rate it is
@@liamsheridan3814 intresting insight into new builds
it will come unfortunately. My company said that they won't hire anyone until 2025
You are by far the most informative youtube channel on topics like this. You explain things so clearly and without bias. I know I can always trust your perspective. Keep up the great work and thank you very much.
This is such good feedback thank you!
i agree with you....great content.
I totally agree, exactly what I was thinking and I’ve watched a lot on RUclips. No scaremongering just facts and a sensible explanation, no bias or speculation, just his honest view given the facts. 👍
143k subs and growing, and now looking for an editor! "Look at my boy, he's grown up so fast!" - I remember being here right near the beginning, when you had less than 5k subs! Well done chap. Keep it up.
You are a legend for watching my content for that long! Some of the older video were a bit ropey haha
@@DamienTalksMoney - Ropey, sure, we got to see who you really are. Keep it up - love from the TungstenCrumpet.
Anecdotally I’ve seen more and more reductions showing up on Rightmove in the area I’m looking to buy in. My thoughts are sellers are holding out as long as possible to eke out the last of the market highs
I have relatives that were pressured to sell this year when getting their place valued to sell next year so I think estate agents know what’s coming as well. Hard to tell buyers their 3 bed is not worth half a million though
You don't know how right you are. Ever since the Credit Crunch, house prices went berserk and have been inflating crazily ever since, and are yet to correct. They will correct hard.
@@Carl-hs420atbh most of the price increase has been since 2019-20 if you look at the historic indexes. It’s likely directly linked to the money printing over covid be that quantitive easing or borrowing because if you look at the historic money supply the recent changes in both seem correlated. A bit thing to note is apparently the money supply is decreasing so the crash is still to come
Impressively straightforward analysis.
If a property is selling at the same price it was 2 years ago, then it has dropped in value by significant amount, because of inflation. If everything has gone up by 20% over the last 2 years, but properties have remained the same price then they are 20% cheaper than 2 years ago.
If you factor for inflation then house prices have already come down a fair bit. But we don't want the actual headline prices to fall much otherwise a lot of people will be mortgage prisoners and that will mean the whole housing and construction industry will basically grind to a halt along with jobs.
When you realise you should bought property after the 2008 crash instead being 9 years old
🤣🤣🤣🤣 this comment
I was 12, I had no excuse.
Your forgetting the government kicked the can down the road by having at least a 12 month delay before repossessions process can start. This is the sole reason why house prices haven't fallen off a cliff but as the time moves on and the economy doesn't improve there is going to be a tidal wave of repossessions coming. By 2025 I expect to be in the middle of the crash think it's way too soon to say why haven't house prices fallen because everything takes time.
I want to buy a BMV property and looked at 3 auction houses in Oct and Nov. I saw ZERO BMV deals and a lot when way above. Until the liquidity is drained there will be no crash
I for one am shocked that importing over a million people a year causes house prices to increase. No one could ever have predicted this.
Absolutely great video and sum up.
Really great statement at the end about your own area and pseudo experts. This is why I trust you; you’re very aware of bias and how much of a game this all this.
I've been looking for a house in the north west and we noticed that there are loads of houses for sale in all the seaside towns. Our theory is that a number of people have looked at sea level rise projections, and they've decided to sell up while they still. My parents live in the river valley in Preston, and they've already had house insurance companies being funny about insurance - potentially those on the coast have experienced something similar.
Thanks Damo, great video.
You need to have a look at the listings you show for prime, that was a 12 pack so only slightly overpriced compare to supermarkets which is fair for an amazon seller really
That’s a "prime" example of me not reading the title properly…
If you look at the third listing down, you will see 2 bottles for £18, which is the one I should have used. I hope the example still makes sense. One of the main reasons I want to get an editor is to have a second pair of eyes to spot silly errors like this.
heh 'prime' example lol@@DamienTalksMoney
@@DamienTalksMoney hah, I see what you did there.
This is the honest of Damien, he’s happy to highlight a mistake and pin this post, Sometimes we miss things. Keep up the content creation Damo - complex topics in laymans terms is invaluable for investing today. 🤘
2:00 explains why there's a difference between 'character properties' and normal houses on the market, the character property sellers won't reduce their price & just remove the house from the market if they can't get their price.
I wish we could see an average house price excluding London. Including it skews the numbers massively.
Just bought my first house this month. I expect to lose some value in the next year or so but I think it'll work in the long run. People living longer, people living apart longer, 500k immigration into the UK last year, gov under delivering on new homes. I also think cheaper first homes are going to be less susceptible too price volatility. A necessary good rather than a luxury. That being said, during the viewing process I saw so many people overpricing their houses because they bought it brand new at a premium in 2019 and didn't want to realise a loss
it won't lose any value next year, start tracking the value growth. it will happen. besides, you'll build equity by paying off the mortgage.
I wouldn't worry about devaluation, wage increases are going to prop the market up, rent is so high buying is the sensible option which will keep the market at least steady for now.
Net migration (immigration-emigration) was actually 745k last year too so even higher than you thought.
Inflation will massively prop up incomes too as people get pay rises.
These two things together massively boost demand and purchasing power. As soon as interest rate pressure declines expect the market to rocket off again.
I think the higher prices during covid play a massive part in why current prices arent falling. People who bought over priced houses 2/3 years ago that are now having to sell, will not accept making a loss and therefore holding out, to at least break-even to get their deposit back and pay off the mortgage.
I went to view a house listed for £135k which has been up for 5 months, they would not accept any offer below this and after looking at sale history they had purchased the house for £132k in 2020
Current prices are tumbling. Do more research.
@@andymaidment111
willing it to happen doesn't make it true...
@@ontheslide2339comments like Andy’s make me laugh……bless them ! 😂😂😂 that age bracket act like they’re the first ones to have it difficult to get their first home……they’ll grow up at some point hopefully !
Damn hasn't considered this. I did notice where I live in the South West that a hefty chunk of houses were last sold 2-4 years ago. Never came to a rational conclusion as to why but this makes sense.
@@andymaidment111are they ek
Great video. Agree with your analysis in every aspect
Thank you!
There is time lag for property sales reporting and the reduction in prices is a gradual decline rather than going off the cliff. Perhaps, selling at a reasonable market value will hopefully encourage sales but taking into account remortgage rates no-one is on a rush to get out of a fixed deal just to move into a larger home. It is a complicated situation but the first time buyers are wary.
Very sensible, statistic based and honest perspective!
Sign of a successful RUclips channel enough money to invest in an editor 👌 nice going, can't wait to see how it evolves
Sign of a man who is struggling to do it all himself lol, i will only take on an editor if i think they can improve the channel (which i don't think will be hard) then leaves me to focus on the important stuff which is research and scripting
The reason prices haven't come down yet is because the delay in data. We had our offer accepted in July but we're only going to exchange 30th November, so our house price wont be in the data until the end of the year. I think we're the last wave of people paying full price, the house prices will officially start falling over the next 3-6 months when sales agreed from September onwards start to complete.
Officially, we will see declines until March 2024, and then an increase. Prices will go up after the Autumn Statemant (possible Stump Duty cut) and the movement will start from mid-December when the bank rate will be closer to 4.5%
@@user-og7jg4js6u ..but that is all conjecture and 'possibles' though. You can guess that that it will pan out like you say, but nobody really knows.
Brilliant analysis. Explained cleanly.
Thank you
Always on point. Great video. 💪
The main reason is the government has pressured lenders to not repossess houses (previously a lot would be in the courts by now)
That may be so but prices are still collapsing in the real world.
Not BTL borrowers. That could be the “sub prime” moment. In the US, it’s commercial mortgages and auto finance that’s creaking and could cause huge losses for banks. It’s expected that the FED will have to resume QE and reduce interest rates rapidly. Too little too late is the likely outcome.
that's true. Now banks don't want to repossess your house, it simply wouldn't be "woke" in this ESG era, Compare that to the nineties when they were hungry to reposess. The chancellor has introduced rules that they cannot even start repossession proceedings for 12 months
This is my first of your videos and I like you, man. You come across as grounded and relatable. Keep it up!
Look at rent levels. Up 30% in some areas. Also, look at new at new build houses. Cost a fortune due to rising costs of materials, labour and taxation. There is a basic cost to have a roof over your head, be it old or new, rented or bought with a mortgage (rented from the bank..)
Sounds like you live near me. I am 300m from the beach, commuting distance from Liverpool and Manchester too. Bought in 2019. Has doubled in value, but more importantly, my return on investment is around 50% a year. As you say " know your local market" is good advice. The rest of the country doesn't matter. Can help with the video editing, will fill in your form :) Keep up the great work. You are way better than any fully loaded TV production on the economy.
Very well balanced video. The analogy with Prime was brilliant and the way you've explained how the number of transactions can affect the average is better than anyone I've seen so far. Keep up the good work!
Unless they build more homes, house prices will continue to be unaffordable.
The only issue with that is, when a new home is built they’re also built to have “premium” pricing. So you’re paying a lot more for a new build in comparison to an already existing home which pushes up the average house price even more.
01:50 in the sellers defence, they are selling it at £2.33 a bottle (£27.99 for a 12 pack) so yes he’s marked it up, especially if you include postage, but not quite the ridiculous amount you’re making it out to be.
Yeah bit of an error on my point (see the pinned comment) i should have used the example 2 listing down where someone is selling it for £8 a bottle.
Good video. My area, very stubborn sellers not accepting falling prices altho listed 8 months ago and not reducing prices altho’ making profit of 35k when he bought 8 years ago. When will this change never know
too much hassles dealing with houses for renting. I just care for the one I live into, and since I need a roof, I am not particularly stressed about market fluctuations.
Unless you have a large enough portfolio that you can afford to have others do it for you.
House prices in Exeter, Devon have remained high with a huge demand on the few houses which are being sold for slightly less
So impressed that you’re not already using one! Any tips for getting better at video editing?
Just started a channel so looking to try and improve my videos going forward
Excellent content if I may say.
Some highlighted you need to factor in sellers who give you cash back that means reduction
Thanks Damien,very logical and makes a lot of sense to me👍
Thank you Richard!
in the long term providing you have impartial professional advice buying is always cheaper than renting and once rates have decreased fix for 10 years so your cost is fixed, unlike renting where the rent goes up annually and your landlord can evict you by pretending to sell
South Wales selling had to drop over 15 grand to sell.
I would suggest you look into the 18.6 year real estate cycles Damien
Excellent video. Love how you explain stuff. Great presentation and clearly a lot of work goes into scripting your videos.
Thank you so much! Have a great Sunday
The calm before the storm hope you’re well
Top notch synopsis
Thank you!
I look in my area of interest and almost all properties look like they were owned or are owned by elderly people. Very few new build and renovated properties.
house builders dont want to let go of greed.
My observation, folks in one state sell their million dollar acre and move where acres are cheaper. Real estate agents in new states fleece "out of stater" by raising property prices double which seems fair to million dollar acre guy but sucks for locals looking to buy who knows prices are inflated. Oklahoma real estate agents are bad about this!!
Agree 100 % with you Damian.
The mortgage arrears figures may be skewed by far fewer first buyers in recent figures compared to 2009. It is these people who will have the largest principles to pay.
Biggest thing you're missing, is the devaluation of currency. If your house price hasn't increased by the rate of inflation, it has devalued.
Recently bought my first home and the area and condition of the property relative to list price was totally reliant on a motivated seller, they're moving into independent living accommodation and that's also made it a much quicker process than I'm sure a lot could expect. I was extremely lucky to get it, price was around 25k cheaper than next doors price from a few years ago.
Great video. There needs to be more content like yours with balanced views that aren't full of people claiming to know everything. And good luck finding an editor and increasing the rate of your PRIME time RUclips content.
Actually if you take inflation into account the £ is losing 8% or so a year in buying power, so even if prices don`t change over a year house values will have fallen in line with inflation.
Property is brought with £'s, you can either afford it (may need a mortgage) or you can't.
Even 2008 could hardly be described as a property crash. Not like the late 80's.
I agree 2008 didn’t make much of a dent in the value of my property at the time. I think it was new builds that got hit the hardest but like you say nothing like crashes in 80s early 90s
Whilst you are right in one respect, I moved in 1996 making very little profit on my existing house which I had owned for 8 years, but brought a much larger one that previously I would have been unable to afford. That house I sold 16 years later for exactly 3 times its cost when I traded up again.
Smart people see opportunities when others only see problems and reasons not to do things. I made far more money from property than I ever did working.
This has to be one of the best, if not the best, objective, balanced and unbiased overview of the current state of affairs within the property market currently available online. It is clearly on a gradual slide and is likely to continue given the BOE narrative and recent economic activity across the nation. But that doesn't mean it is all total doom and gloom as the crash wannabees report and neither does it mean there will only be a 5% nominal drop from top to bottom as reported by those with a biased agenda due to their participation and reliance on a solid property market.
It is always best to become an expert in your area and use a variety of sources to help inform you of important decisions. I don't know what will happen but my best guess is that 2024 will, overall, be worse than 2023 for most people as the coming year is when I believe we will see more company failures, less availability of jobs, more people losing jobs, rate rises really biting and the butt of overall financial failure before recovery begins its slow path from 2025 onwards. The snowball has not stopped rolling. It might even just be starting to accelerate before a thaw sets in properly.
It is good to see balance. Well done.
You summarised my view of thing better than i did thank you very much for getting involved in the comments.
Part of it for me is the dramatic language used by the media; Prices "crash" "plummet" "soar" etc, none of which reflectthe way prices really change.
please can you look into the 18.6 year property cycle same history seems to be happening again
There's a lot of terraced houses up for sale or going to auction on my partner's street (Bury, Lancashire) out of 40 or so houses on the street 6 are going to auction and one has been up for sale for at least 8 months, and seems to not be moving at all, these are all at the lower end of the market, in poor repair two up, two down terraces with a back yard. All of those going for auction have come up in the last three or four weeks and were buy to let. I'm assuming that the landlords of these properties are going to auction as it's their quickest route out of the market and that they are getting out as the interest rates have hit them. The houses all have/had tenants who have/are moving on to... somewhere. I'm not sure what I'm trying to say, but it concerns me is that there are a lot of people, just on one street in one town, who are stuck, they can only just afford to rent, have no prospect of being able to afford to buy and are at the whim of a fickle, overpriced market and are forced to live in poorly maintained properties. I own my own house outright and I have decent investments, I was lucky enough to have lived through periods and been in situations which have allowed me to end up where I am, it's not all been easy but it feels a damn sight easier than things are right now. I am really concerned about the state of the property market and the effect it's having on people and the economy, things have to change somehow.
You should talk to Charlie Lamdin. He has a deeper insight into what's going on. Current prices are probably lower than you think.
He's a fool
There are a few other things. For one the property market is warped due to house flipping. Where houses are converted into temp accommodation. Some councils are spending 20% of thier budget on emergency accommodation. These properties sell for more. Then there is the inflated prices. Due to renting. I think long term, people will be forced into cheaper areas. So we will have a lot of job vacancies but high unemployment. Which with certain jobs u r seeing now. You can longer afford to live near London and be on less than 45k or you may as well move to another part of the uk. Do a job for 22k a year and collect benefits. It's way cheaper.
Please don't show anything outside your window, years ago a youtuber did that and a stalker appeared outside his door with her luggage, and he lived in apartment, she could still figure out which one and which floor base on the trees.
I did it when it was dark! but yeah i think you are right i shouldn't be showing anything. Thank you for the genuine concern
@@DamienTalksMoney I once post a photo of my cat sat next to the window, I couldn't see a thing due to the light, but my FB friend somehow adjust the light and see the corner of the photo showing tiny part of the street view and ask me if I lived near xxx... Some ppl have skills and time we can't imagine...
This is the problem with the folk that say ‘that’s why it’s an average’. Normal houses (2 to 3 bed) outwith the south east are not dropping from what I see. I bought a new build in 2016 for 250k. Same house type is being sold on an estate other side of a small town in Scotland just went from 300k to 330k due to build costs. Ex council or smaller houses are selling within weeks and for above asking.
In a situation where the cost of food, energy, transport, and everything else is increasing, the fact that house prices are stagnant means they're falling, the fact that nobody's acknowledging this means theres a lot of people with their head in the sand
It's a spiral. People spend more on the house payment and a car payment. Then they have less money to spend it in normal things like food and having fun. Then the producers of every product that isn't house or car, cut down their production because nobody is buying it. So they lay off the workers, who now have even less money. Etc...
Good analysis. Nice one Damien. We've currently seen a nominal fall of approx. 5% and a real terms fall of about 15%. The central case is now a peak to trough nominal fall of 10-12% and a real fall of 25-30%. It would take a major recession to see a 30% nominal fall.
Yep agreed, I said 10% a long while ago nominally and I think most people miss the ‘real’ impact when discussing property
Lol I can't think where there is a beach anywhere in between Liverpool and Manchester. Runcorn has a shore line kind of but not what I would call a beach, Warrington only has canals. 😋
My guess is Southport area. Commutable to both Manc and Lpl, beach, plenty of retirees.
Also need to consider what proportion of properties for sale are probate cases that are owned outright and motivated to get the highest price possible
Thinking about properties available due to excess deaths from covid and cost of living energy crisis
Quirks and features!!
House prices don’t crash when sellers decide to hang on and not sell until the high interest rates start to drop resulting in less on the market which keeps value afloat. And even more simply people can’t afford to move house right now again resulting in less for sale.
Nice video very clear
When the price of something doesn’t go in the direction that it ‘should’, it is providing you a very valuable piece of information. Probably best to step back and listen.
U.K. house prices are about to go off to the races.
Something very similar is happening in America except they have fixed rate mortgages. Every one who bought a house pre rate hikes are not selling since your payments will go up at least 1k. Folks that want to sell and buy a new home are discouraged with high rates. We are at a stand still people with homes can’t sell and those that want to buy can’t afford. Sadly it’s looking likely that it will take a spike in unemployment to bring down home prices
I work for a private bank. Something is spooking the banks and government out. In the past 8 months the entire tone and focus has changed plus we keep being told micro economics are concerning investors as debt is increasing and savings are disappearing.
They also are now seeing a surge in defaults and missed payments.
But we're told we have enough to weather the storm for a short to mid term but no one is telling us what is short and mid term!
Supply and demand
Its as simple as that 🎉
I've seen house prices decrease in London lul. From outrageous prices that nobody can afford to slightly less outrageous prices that nobody can afford...
In my area, properties around 250-300k were selling literally in days, although since late September, prices haven't dropped, but the rate of sale has dramatically slowed.
Where I live people even delist it after some reductions , that are visable then relist with a diffrent estate agent but appears on the same web site (rightmove ) but now without the reductions so it looks new on the market with a new listed from date hmmmm...
I recently sold a pre- war semi I was a co owner of .And made sure the only people I was dealing with were in a position to buy. So least time wasted . ( cash buyer or motgage approved , not in chain and near asking price ) it lasted a 3 days before a property developer got it but it was priced to sell for a full refurb .
I like your analysis 👍
Thanks!