UK housing market crash is "the end of the PONZI SCHEME" | Economics | The New Statesman
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- Опубликовано: 31 янв 2023
- Britain's property boom is a national exercise in self-deception, the biggest lie in the UK economy - Will Dunn
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Read Will Dunn’s piece here: www.newstatesman.com/economy/...
The New Statesman’s business editor Will Dunn speaks to Danny Dorling, Professor of Human Geography at Oxford University to explain the UK’s “housing con.”
Dunn argues that “the dizzying rise of the property market has offered a substitute” for economic growth.
For the youngest people in society, the housing market “dream”, according to Dorling has gone. Those who have just purchased property have simply bought “into the end of the ponzi scheme”.
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Watch next: Why the leasehold scam must end
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Already ended in the great country of Scotland 🏴
I feared a housing crash due to people buying homes above asking prices with little equity. If prices drop, affordability and potential foreclosures may arise, worsened by future layoffs and rising living costs. I want to invest more than $300k in houses but I'm not sure on how to mitigate risk.
You are not alone we can no longer afford our mortgage, wife wants us to travel or relocate/I am proposing cashing in, walking away and renting while putting the rest in the stock market.
If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets. It's better to hire a skilled financial planner especially if you're not one yourself. I hired one after my retirement pension took a hit in April due to the crash.
Sharon Ann Meny, just check her out. It's better to hire a skilled financial planner especially if you're not one yourself. I hired one after my retirement pension took a hit in 2021 April due to the crash.
Another reason it's less likely to happen that way is that there is already too much demand waiting to absorb that regardless of how everyone is panicking and calling the crash. Nobody was making this prediction in 2008, at least not the general public, as I indicated below. In the other comment, it was mentioned that the ownership rate peaked in 2004. As of today, we are at the median level, having previously peaked in the second quarter of 2020. It decreased by 3% over 4 years, from 2008 to 2012, going from 68 to 65 in the second quarter of 2020.
Because they are accustomed to bull markets, most people find it difficult to handle a decline, but if you know where to look and what to do, you can earn significantly. Yes, depending on how you want to enter and leave.
Given that we are not used to such volatile markets, the fact that the US stock market has been on its longest bull run in history helps to explain the widespread fear and enthusiasm. There are chances if you know where to look, as you noted when I earned more than $780k in the prior ten months. I hired a portfolio advisor because I knew I would need a solid plan to get through these difficult times.
It was run by Julie Anne Hoover, who I learned about and got in touch with thanks to a CNBC interview. Since then, it has served as the point of entry and departure for the games we have emphasized. A search on the internet can be done if tracking is necessary.
@@danieljackson87 It was run by Julie Anne Hoover, who I learned about and got in touch with thanks to a CNBC interview. Since then, it has served as the point of entry and departure for the games we have emphasized. A search on the internet can be done if tracking is necessary.
😂😂😂😂 OK believe that
I'm hoping there will be a housing crisis so I can buy cheaply when I sell a few houses in 2024. As a backup plan, I've been thinking about purchasing stocks. What advice do you have for choosing the best buying time? On the one hand, I continue to read and see trading earnings of over $500k each week. On the other side, I keep hearing that the market is out of control and experiencing a dead cat bounce. Why does this happen?
You're not doing anything wrong; you simply lack the expertise necessary to make money in a bad market. In these difficult circumstances, only really skilled experts who were forced to witness the 2008 financial crisis could expect to generate a large wage.
There are true professionals at the top of their game; I had the pleasure of dealing with one, and it turned out to be really helpful as they assisted me in restructuring my complete portfolio. Margaret Johnson Arndt, a well-known professional in her field who you may be familiar with, is none other than my advisor.
It is difficult to make exact projections for the housing market as it is still unclear how quickly or to what degree the Federal Reserve will reduce inflation and borrowing costs without having a substantial negative impact on demand from consumers for anything from houses to cars.
I recently sold my home in the Boca Grande area and am considering investing a lump sum into the stock market before the anticipated rebound, couple of folks have been discussing a potential May rally, speculating on which stocks may experience substantial growth during the festive season. Do you have any insight into which stocks these might be?
If you are new to the market, I recommend seeking professional assistance. The most effective approach to creating a well-organized portfolio is to begin with a professional who is knowledgeable about the turbulent yet profitable market.
Over the past three years, I have been working with an investment coach who has provided daily guidance on my investment decisions. With their expert analysis, I have realized gains of over 850k. Their insights have helped me avoid losses and capitalize on market breakthroughs, particularly during downtrends.
@@lipglosskitten2610 I'm intrigued by your experience. Could you possibly recommend a trustworthy advisor you've consulted with?
@@martingiavarini renowned for her proficiency and expertise in the financial market, ''Catherine Morrison Evans’’ my financial advisor, holds a broad understanding of portfolio diversification and is recognized as an authority in this domain.
I bought a house in France for 8k. I made the decision to jump ship when Brexit happened. I found a cheap house in rural France (online). I offered less than what they wanted, got it, left the UK when the pandemic hit, and lived in it for 1 year without electricity. Today (2 years later ) I have electricity in the house & running water. I have set up a small online business. I am not rich with money but Im rich with freedom. Take a leap of faith and trust your gut. Leave the sinking ship. Life is not for working it is for living. Love to you and peace x
Well done!
How did you get the right to reside there mate? Did you move before Brexit? Do have to renew a VISA?
So are you a French citizen now? How does that work?
Lovely 🌹 God bless you more Ameen
Good on you for being brave and doing something different
I studied Town Planning at UCL, graduated in 1995 only to find out the Govt had stopped Planning for new houses and left it to the private sector! I might s well have studied coal mining!
Yep they are ruining Exmouth……..
It could be worse. You could have studied Russian Literature at UCL.
*cough*
Here's a genius idea. Get a job in the private sector.
@@andybarnard4575 I emmigrated in 96! Cheerio UK. Happy negative equity for ever M8
@@brucemckenzie9351 Well done! I left in 93, but loved over priced shoe boxes so much I came back.
The current system is completely unsustainable. The only reason it continues 'as if' is lending and debt. Lending for healthcare, for homes, for education, and plain old credit cards. trouble is, when the bottom falls out, the lenders get bailed out and consolidated, and everyone else loses their shirt.
I can't feel it. Most people that get rich do so during a depression or recession. I've lived trough 2 of them. This is what happened. They took everyone's 401K's money. That's how they pay for it. People with 401K's are handcuffed to a sinking ship. Everyone else jumps ship.
Every person is affected by this directly or indirectly. Taking myself for instance, Investments or stocks still retain their values very much but I'm still at crossroads of deciding if to liquidate my $53k worth of stocks or hold on to them cos I'm scared they might lose value.
There are several reasons I have been investing under the counsel of an Advisor which are someone who sets asset allocation that fits my tolerance and risk capacity, investment horizon, present and future goals. ‘Eleanor Annette Eckhaus has provided all that and I don’t want to go into ROI on a public space like RUclips
You can look her up as she has an official webpage for consultations. Also, she is verifiable across various Financial Advisory bodies; like FINRA & SEC etc..
@@roddywoods8130 How can I reach this this person to invest?!
A young person starting out has no chance and so all the motivation evaporates. This will be an ill wind as they age. Strife, resentment, lethargy. When a nice
couple
one a firefighter one a nurse can not
even afford
a studio pit in an average place this is wrong, no kids as unaffordable, no happy
home. This society is sick. We need new leaders
Hit the nail on the head there, buddy. Politicians wonder why our reproduction rate is so low and steadily decreasing.... Whilst simultaneously doing everything they can not to address the gargantuan elephant in the room that is the proliferation of unproductive asset bubble wealth.
Wanna know why people aren't having loads of kids anymore? A big part of it is that more and more young/mid-aged people simply cannot afford to have and raise children because they are becoming more and more poor in terms of money, time and security. Free-reign of capital post-big bang has completely demolished people's ability to be able to follow the traditional life cycle in this country because all of a sudden they're not just having to compete with their neighbours, they're having to compete with global capital which has sank its parasitic hooks into the lifeblood of this country because generations of governments have allowed a huge housing bubble to run away unabated. Simultaneously, they've completely neglected almost every other area of UK society and economy because they assumed the housing bubble would roll on forever and always be there to cover the cracks.
We don't just need new leaders. We need a whole new system. Not just switching from FPTP to PR, but a complete reappraisal of what a society is, how it should function, who it should function for and how. We need a complete systemic change. A big BIG part of the problem in Britain is the class system which was never truly slain and I see the Royal family and the current political format of HoC, HoL & life peerages, I.E. reserve privileges institutions, as being a huge part of the problem.
Nurse or firefighter doesn't give you a free ticket of your a victim stay at your parents home
Why do you think they welcome in the hordes of young fit breeders.
spot on
I can speak to none of this, but as a foreigner who lived in the UK for almost a decade, I was disgusted by the standard of UK housing that I was contemplating to purchace. Desided not to, because of the mold everywhere. Instead I moved out of the UK.
Me too.
See ya ✋
@@wendywolfman I doubt it. I won't be going back.
@@wendywolfman Glad you are happy living in houses not meeting the standards for animals, 👌
Sam, most UK houses do not have "mould everywhere".
You know a Country is beyond screwed when the essentials to a life like Food Energy and Shelter are becoming more out of reach for more people Year on Year.
And how television and radio shows everywhere have constant cash machine competitions and lotteries.
You know a country is screwed when it's being run by tories.
@@lifelongred7056 Exactly. So many working class people voted tory in 2019. They got what they voted for 👍🏾
@Tiger No with Labour under Corbyn. Yes with Labour under Starmer.
We did take in over 500,000 extra unwanted people last year.
And built like 12,000 homes.
I bought a house 30 years ago at around 3 times my yearly salary, it was so cheep it was a joke!
30 years later having lost my house through divorce I'm looking at similar properties that now cost more than 10 times what they cost 30 years back, and equivalent rises in rental costs, yet my wages have increased just over double what I earned back then...
All this started under Margaret Thatcher with the big council house sell off and profiteering in the private sector, not to mention those buying housing as holiday lets and second homes.
Me personally........
I hope there is a colossal housing price crash!
houses are being repossessed more and more now, the council are happy to snap up homes for housing the migrants, communities destroyed and churches converted
you think the demand will crash? no., well, not unless people stop breeding.
Was your marriage worth it
Who told you to get married😂, more and more men are learning that marriage is a one way ticket to misery
You do realize if there’s a big crash and everyone goes broke you may not even have a job anymore?
I used to think everybody went broke during the Great Depression and other major crashes but they didn’t… Some made millions, I also thought everybody went out of business during these times but they didn’t, some went into business, there's always depression/recession for some people and there's always a good time for others, it's all about perspective.
First step is discovering loopholes to generate gains during volatility, It is very possible to retire big time from the current market condition without having to hold stocks long term.
most of these strategies and loopholes are better managed by experts and pros in the market, the average Investor on the other hand are left to suffer during a crash.
@@kaylawood9053 My advisor is Eleanor Annette Eckhaus You can easily look her up, she has years of financial market experience.
@@africanboi4542 please elaborate. Seems like very high risk and requires significant initial capital.
Yes it is fear tactics like this piece that make people panic and sell up. This happens time and time again. During a crash *HOLD* your property and your nerve!
Describing the housing market as a Ponzi scheme is spot on. 😊
There are winners and Losers in any Ponzi Scheme
it absolutely ISN'T a ponzi scheme. you need to learn a bit more about financial terminology if you think it is.
@@occamraiser ok
I’m sure you know far more than me. Well done.
@@chrislambert9435 there are winners and losers in every scheme. I’m pretty sure that those of us who have managed to invest in a house decades ago fell very much like winners, whereas the mostly young people nowadays really feel much like losers.
@@juliewake4585 The high value of any homes is caused by "Government" not by Private LandLords or Tenants. The Shortages and Price Hikes are caused by "Government" I put it to you if anyone does not know this in the UK, they must be smoking to much weed
The most ridiculous thing was the massive rise in the cost of houses during 2020-2021 at the height of the Coronavirus pandemic. To see values drop back to what they were at before then wouldn't be a crash - it would be a welcome correction.
''give me control of the money supply, I care not who makes the rules''.
Anything that isn't a increase = the sky is falling!! Doom Economics sells clicks and adverts. Don't bull into the BS of it all.
ACCORDING TO A RECENT STORY in the Eastern Evening News, there is “a crisis in affordable housing” in the UK. As in so many other contexts, the word “crisis” is political Newspeak for: “The government wants more money and power.” In this case, it is the Department of Housing and Development that wants housing subsidize, needless to say. This whole story is all too symptomatic of the Alice-in Wonderland world of contemporary liberalism in the UK. In that world, prices are just unfortunate barriers to be overcome by having the government make things “affordable.” There is seldom a thought that prices are conveying an underlying reality about costs and scarcity-a reality that is not going to be changed by throwing the UK taxpayers’ money around to make things “affordable.” Obviously, the more money you take away from taxpayers, the fewer things they will be able to afford, like having a one-income family, so that children can be raised at home instead of in day-care centers. But of course extreme Socialists would throw more money at day care too. Where all this money is coming from or at the sacrifice of what else is not a subject that interests them very much. Free-spending Labour party liberalism is like a dog chasing his tail and speeding up when he fails to catch it. Those who have for decades blithely loaded new costs onto housing in Norfolk-whether in the name of environmentalism, a Deer Park, zoning or other policies dear to the heart of Environmental-liberals-equally blithely ignore those costs as they ask taxpayers in the rest of the country to pick up the tab. Scare tactics are a standard part of this political exercise. We are told, for example, that home prices in the East of England may reach the point where they will be “well beyond the means of even much of the middle class.” Let’s do something revolutionary: Stop and think. If housing in Norwich rises well beyond the means of middle-class people, who is going to live in this City. Either new-and richer-people are going to move in to replace those who can no longer afford to live in Norwich or there are going to be a lot of vacancies. Anyone who has taken Economics 1 and remembers supply and demand knows that a high vacancy rate and rising rents do not go together. If the dire scenario of skyrocketing rents is to play out, somebody has to come in and replace those people who can no longer afford to live in Norwich-and the replacements have to be able to pay housing prices that are beyond what the middle class can afford. Are there enough rich people out there waiting to replace the current 136 thousand Norwichens And where are these rich people being housed today? Surely they are not living out on the streets or in pup tents. And if they vacate their current digs to move to Norwich, will that not create lots of vacancies elsewhere? Like much that appears in the liberal media, this Eastern Evening News is not news reporting. It is disguised advertising for government programs-and false advertising at that. Just a couple of years ago, my friend rented a two-bedroom apartment in a modern apartment complex with its own tennis courts and swimming pools. His rent was £450 a month. Was this a government-subsidized development? No. The freemarket price for such an apartment in the community where he lived just happened to be £450 a month. It was in one of many smaller towns around the country where liberals either haven’t gotten control or haven’t yet had time to drive up housing costs with heavy-handed environmental laws, zoning restrictions and the innumerable other ways that liberals blithely pile on costs for others to pay. A study of homelessness-The Excluded British by William Tucker-detailed the ways in which housing prices have been forced up by artificially created scarcities, many under pious political labels. In one of the hotbeds of environmentalism (thats Norwich) and other forms of liberalism-In Norfolk-the average price of a house rose five-fold in just one decade. Real estate agents say that housing prices depend on three factors-location, location and location. Perhaps they need to add: liberals, liberals and liberals.
@@Godonstilts So true. The stock market and property markets have been “about to crash” since 2009. It’s all clickbait.
This is the truth.
Property where I live would need to take a 20% hit right now it would be up by a more normal figure of 10% on early 2020. That's bigger than the crash in 2008-2009.
The increase between the beginning of Q2 in 2020 and late 2022 was almost entirely down to Londoners, 21st century yuppies and the upper middle classes in their luxury apartments and in towns and cities panic buying 4 bedroom detached houses (and dogs) with a garden in suburbia or rural market towns.
Look at the local market in places like Cornwall, North Wales, the Scottish Highlands, the Lake District during the series of Lockdowns. It wasn't normal buyer activity. It was the same ridiculous behaviour as those with the bog rolls and puppies, only from those with a wad of cash to wave around.
I'm from the UK, but left years ago. I live in rural Italy, a few minute's drive from a high speed train which can take me to Rome in 40 minutes and Florence in less than 2 hours. We live in a lovely small town, in a nice 3 bed house, and our mortgages is a tiny fraction of what it would be in the UK. It makes me so sad to look at the UK today... being a migrant and living overseas has its own challenges, and it's not for everyone, but the country has just been destroyed by extreme greed and wealth inequality. And then pushed into the stupidity of brexit just to secure the tax havens that support the entire industry of laundering the proceeds of corruption. Come on UK... time for revolution!!!
Wow thank you for sharing that perspective.
obviously everyone has a different perspective but I found it strange that it was actually those with the higest household incomes in the UK who wanted to stay inside the EU and overwhelmingly the lowest income voters who opted to leave.
You could either look at it and say well those poor people were all too stupid to understand what they were voting for, a common trope during the referendum or that they were mainly just rascists and hateful bigots who weren't overly upset at the threat of having no sandwiches or being told we would all get syphallis over night if we left, that as you say they were hoodwinked into essentially helping the extremly wealthy......... or you might ask why was it that all the wealthiest people in the UK wanted to stay in - probably as they were benefitting the most financially from being in, so did we really help them but voting to leave?
Don't forget the EU were giving huge tax deals to massive corporations such as Amazon and Glaxo SMith etc, which obviously had a negative effect on everyone and that at the time the unemployment rates were far higher in the EU than UK and that above all the main founder himself said that it should be big business not the people of the UK who should decide... which is the exact definition of Corporate Fascism
Well you are in Italy now, so the UK is not your business, you enjoy Italy! At the moment the wealthy people of the world are continuing to invest their money in new areas introduced during lockdown, that has led to high inflation, and normal working people, as always are paying for it all. This is the same everywhere.
"but the country has just been destroyed by extreme greed and wealth inequality"
I agree, but I think we disagree on the causes - "The People" are the greedy ones.
They're the ones chasing rainbows and paying all they can just so they can show an image of being well off.
No-one is forced into that. If you're sensible with your outgoings and seriously take on your financial responsibilities, have some patience while your mortgage is high in the early years then there's no reason you won't come out the other end all rosy. People want everything now. That's the main issue here.
"Come on UK...time for revolution!"
So easy to say when you've jumped ship ;)
Having said all that, I am slightly jealous of you ha ha! Florence, Rome. Did most of Italy last year. Fantastic! :D
Have you gone to see the old aqueduct? It's on the outskirts of one of the metro lines (Subaugusta I think). Worth a view!
Also, if you get the chance. San Marino. I was shocked by how lovely it is, but be prepared for walking up slopes!
@@Kababalax "that has led to high inflation"
No it hasn't. Brexit and Ukraine have led to high inflation.
I've been waiting for the "crash" for nearly 20 yrs, but it just keeps powering on. It's the biggest con in history, and as you say, so much wealth just tied up in property and diverted to paying mortgages. It could be put to so much better use. It's very depressing.
It should have continued seriously after the financial crash of 2008...but the government bailed out the banks and thereafter kept promoting money supply to inflate the housing bubble!
It's a Zionist plot to own the world
There's two major reasons there hasn't been a crash.
1. Few new homes are being built
2. The UK is a desirable place for people all over the world to live and invest
Brexit and the Tories have done considerable damage to the second point, which is why we're seeing the current decreases. If house building increases to meet demand the bottom will fall out of the market entirely.
It's coming. We have the second highest debt in the world that we can't even pay off.
Same here
Britain's ludicrously over valued property market is an excellent contraceptive.
which is disastrous for the future of the country.
Love that its crashing, cry greedy landlords 🤣🤣
@@CristanioPeweyyy what makes you think they will lower th rents.
Certain other shall we say denominations of people will still continue to proliferate hmmm.
😂🤣
I'm glad someone has finally addressed this. A family member bought their house for 320,000 in 2000. 2019 sold it for 900,000. That's 30,000 a year year on year appreciation. It's sucked money out of the economy that doesn't exist.
My property is worth less than it was in 2000.
@@MrGwaldo clearly they sold theirs at peak, you might have just missed on it
Location, location, location.
If only people don't flock to the same areas. Should we blame urban migration?
How has it sucked money out of the economy?
Jealous much?
Great presentation. I'm not an economist but in recent years I've been looking into how the economy works, and I'd figured out by myself that the 'get rich by buying a house' fairytale that we are sold in the UK did not make any sense when you looked at it in any depth. It's my belief that housing (like energy, water, public transport and medical care) should not be seen as a way for someone to make a lot of money, but as a basic human right of any developed successful civilised society. We have capitalised basic human rights and now we are paying the price.
Really? How is the NHS funded? Who pays the tradesmen who build and maintain your house? Is your grocery shopping free? You didn’t need to tell us you’re not an economist.
@@dzano17 What’s problematic about it? People aren’t going to provide goods and services for nothing. This isn’t some sort of Utopia.
This has stopped a lot of young people settling down and having a family, delaying it with both parents working full time and shipping the kid/s off to a nursery.
With lower birthrates maybe we will come back around to the idea that "UK needs more immigration to fill the gap" which some might say is ironic because maybe more people had some effect on house prices to begin with.
All speculation though for sake of conversation
I'm an RICS valuer. I go to high end sales offices and you will find a Chinese talking sale person or the developer has an office in Hong Kong and Beijing. They buy off plan without even visiting the site and pay in cash or on a small buy-to-let mortgage. I'm sure it's signed off by the government to prop the market up but it incentives the developers to build 4-5 bedroom houses and flats rather than family homes. Selling the British public down the river if you ask me.
And your fellow citizens ( ? ) are progressively more impoverished. Does that suggest your actions lack any moral framework, and greed is all that drives you? or not? And if not, justify yourself.
RCIS valuer?
@@terencefield3204 he's a valuer, not selling to Chinese
@@terencefield3204 Read his comment again you mong
So we should do what Canada have done and stop foreigners buying homes but of course they won't.
Imagine if essentials like water or food were priced as luxury, multi-generational investment assets in the U.K.
this really isn’t that dissimilar.
How often do you actually go to a butcher, a baker or a greengrocer?
Is there still any around in your area or do you order at tesco and have it dropped off?
@@IwillBwaiting Me? I'll go to the local if I can afford the prices. If I can't afford it, you'll see me in the supermarkets.
If there was a fixed supply of food then it would be priced that way. The rich would stockpile food for their own progeny and I really couldn't blame them for doing so. Of course people want their children and grandchildren to have places to live and as long as the population goes up then real estate will become a scarcer and scarcer resource.
Only thing to really do is reform zoning to allow developers to better meet demand and pray to God that population stops rising.
It only needs a readjustment in the value of the Pound & Euro. They can no longer afford Energy Prices - the reasons are obvious.
We not far off that
The Great Money Trick was explained in The Ragged Trousered Philanthropists, back in the 1920s……….but then it was used to explain how employers took money earned by employees away from them in rent of their tools, homes, fuel and so on, so that in the end, they had no wages left, and were completely owned by their bosses…….an important economic lesson!
Yes my dad encouraged us to read The Ragged Trousered Philanthropists when we were teenagers. Does anyone read it now I wonder?
Great book, actually changed my direction and thinking , it was actually ricky tomlinson that got me reading it ...all the best
Even private rent has become unaffordable as in a lot of cases your rent is far more than your monthly full time working wage. When I was younger the rent for a 3 bed house was £3 a week and that included water rates, that same house is now £1.300 a month and it does not include any bills. It has gone out of control and this has to stop, it cannot go on like this. It will burst and take a lot of people down with it.
People will be filing for bankruptcy, Government buys home that you live in because they can't just have thousands of people homeless on the street = government owns and controls your life
@@r.v6290 Our council has earmarked a few million to buy a few houses to house homeless families. That however is a drop in the ocean, loads of private landlords are selling up before the crash to get as much money as possible. Section 21 evictions are increasing. I have one of those, a no fault eviction, I have always paid my rent but now I have to leave my home and I cannot afford these sky high rents. I am waiting for the bailiffs to come and evict me as the council won't help until they do and I will loose everything I have worked so hard for. How far do you push people before they snap? As for bankruptcy , you have to pay for that as well.
£3 a week for a three bed house??? How old are you? Housing has always been comparatively expensive in England as far back as I can remember. People forget that houses were "cheaper" in the past but wages were a lot lower. Friends of mine who moved to London from the north in their early 20s mostly lived in squats or horrible shared places for years before they could afford anything halfway decent.
@@thedativecase9733 This was in 1978, as I am now 56 lol When I left home in the 80's my 3 bed house in Ramsgate was £35 a week so in the past 30 years I would say things have gotten vastly out of control as every year landlords put the rent up by astronomical amounts to cover the costs of their loans and remortgages plus they want spending money on top
I rented a 2 bed Victorian place in 2000 for £300, its £700 now
I remember watching a documentary about the council estates built in the '60s and '70s. What struck me was the difference in the attitude of the developers then and now; then, they were building with the community in mind, with amenities (shops, parking, pubs and restaurants) being built nearby so that the estates would become self-contained cities of sorts. It may not have turned out as well as they hoped, but many people who lived on these estates for decades talked about having life-long friends and neighbours. It is a real shame that these estates weren't maintained by the council, a lot of them have been demolished and the communities broken up.
The last things councils care about in this country, are people.
Not demolished - majority sold off by that psyhco Thatcher. I grew up on the St Helier Estate built by the London County Council in the early 1930s - they not only built quality brick homes with gardens but added decent roads, shops, community centers, parks/open spaces, multiple schools, etc. I live in Australia and the same has happened here.
Councils are just local "plantation" managers.
@@quercus8833 Maybe to you.
@@quercus8833 Some were bad brutalist projects, especially the 1960's maisonettes, flats and concrete high rise estates.
Other estates built directly after WW2, in the great rebuilding project, were very good brick council houses with good sized gardens and even brick sheds etc (at a time when there was very little money due to WW2, and they started to build the NHS). But Thatcher sold them off with the lie and promise that for every one sold they would build 2 more new social housing (affordable housing) council houses to replace those older ones that got sold and build up the social housing stock, but of course they never did. And still the Tories haven't built any affordable homes for rent or to buy.
This was wonderfully articulate!
I weep for the UK; so much money has been directed into non-productive investments that long term consequences are now inevitable.
Investors - putting money in, to get ever more money OUT.
Yeah like supporting Ukraine but not giving doctors and NHS staff pay rises. ITS GOING DOWN BBAD
@billbtc3697 When did you last see an actual real doctor?, our doctors surgery is practically empty. The many doctors in the partnership are working in rotation, but they still remain at home and draw full salary. Nurses are not underpaid, compared to normal working people.
I will agree that we give too much to many countries, all over the world, but that's better than having them all move to the UK, and swamping our facilities.
@@alannock1358 But they are still moving to the UK in huge numbers and swamping our facilities. We have an NHS in crisis, social care crisis, housing crisis, 2 million social housing waiting list, pensions shortfalls (they are delaying retirement age again), regional inequality, 2 decades of stagnant wages, schools literally in danger of collapse endangering children, ditto hospitals endangering patients, an energy crisis with most of our power stations due for decommission with no replacements in sight risking blackouts, we are out of burial space and very basic funerals are now unaffordable for many, Overflowing and outdated victorian sewers that were designed for a 1/4 of the population they are serving. Rising homelessness, food banks, and child poverty. Yet somehow we have the cash to spend £8 million a day hotelling refugees, £15 billion a year on foreign aid and until recently £10 billion a year building up poor EU nations during which time we were telling British nationals there's no money left to raise state wages, raise benefits, and there must be cuts to legal aid, housing benefit, bedroom taxes, and freezes on public sector wages.
@@resiplayerz Can't argue with a word you say.
I'm a student who lives in the postcode covered in this report, and know both streets well. The wealth/class inequality observed is stark and sobering. While I am not one of the least fortunate in this area of Oxford, I spend a lot of time pondering about how hopeless the current climate is, and it worries me when I will be looking into property ownership in the future. It most certainly will not be in Oxford city at all. This report is so well put together.
Think why cant you buy in your own town. Answer. unrestricted population growth 92% from other countries, and minimal housebuilding
❤
I think another factor in housing aspiration was hinted at towards the end of the film - people seem to want to isolate themselves from their community. A semi is better than a terrace, a detached house better than a semi, and a detached house with a huge garden means you rarely need to interact with neighbours. There is probably no corner shop or launderette nearby, so most of their food budget will get sucked into a huge Asda, which is a 5 mile drive away.
I have lived in a 2 bedroom terrace in Liverpool for the last 10 years. It was very cheap (relatively) at 70k but I was in my 40s before I had enough to deposit. The house is now worth twice as much, and I’ve been promoted quite a bit at work so I’m supposed to ‘climb up the housing ladder’. But the house I have is fine - no garden, downstairs loo, poor heating but in a vibrant multicultural area and I’m very happy to spend money at the local shops and businesses. My neighbours are youngsters renting (often working in the gig economy) older folk who’ve lived here all their lives and recently migrants from Eastern Europe and the Middle East. I’m meant to look around and see ‘decline’ but I don’t, I see life - I feel the decline when I walk around the posher parts of the city (and there are some) or the soulless drive-in ‘mall’ developments where these people buy their cold-pressed olive oil and corner sofa units.
I feel that all of it is driven by the property-porn we are subjected to on mainstream media channels - ‘ooh look how lovely it all is, no clutter, no chipped paint, no migrant children playing in the street, everything’s so automated we’ll never have to do anything again ever’. We have come so far from ‘ooh a clean secure home with a roof and water and power’ many seem to feel ripped-off when that’s all they get.
I don't think that's the truth. I mean for some, sure, but have you actually lived in UK terraced houses? I live in a terraced house in Oxford of all places, not too far from the area in this video. My bills are £2000 a month. My walls are paper thin, the quality is terrible and the space is tiny. I don't care that there are people living next to me, or that there are people outside on the street (much less random kids playing), nor have I ever known anyone who minds. It's the fact that I can hear my neighbour's telly clear enough to know what he's watching, my house cools and heats as if it didn't even have any walls, what with the terrible insulation, so my energy prices are sky high, about £400 a month in the winter. Mould grows no matter what I do, the windows let air through when closed and the smell of weed gently floats into the room every time I open them. The walls have massive cracks in them with paint chipping off if you shut a door a bit too hard. I would love to have a community with my neighbours, but they're mostly chavs, who vandalise the street, or druggies; the few normal ones keep to themselves because of this.
Sorry for hijacking your comment for this rant, but what you said really struck me as untrue. I, like many others, am working hard specifically so I can move somewhere where I'm not living on some kind of anthill, stacked together with others like sardines in a tin. It has nothing to do with not wanting to have a community.
“Where these ppl buy their cold-pressed olive oil and corner sofas” did it for me 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
@@tangerinestreet1512 It’s true for me mate - it’s called ‘regional inequity’, my mortgage is about the same as your energy bill. If my house was in London, it would be worth the best part of 1 million quid. I have mould too, and the smell of weed is never far away. I would not call anyone a chav, but there are unemployed people, office workers, builders and retired people. Perhaps it is a cultural difference and it’s not perfect, there are young thugs and vandals but those who rent stay long term, the ‘For Rent’ or ‘For Sale’ signs are infrequent - and I think communities only develop with time. Not far away there are several streets with community gardens which are beautifully maintained, again, row upon row of terraced housing built for Victorian dock workers.
I wasn’t suggesting we should expect to lower our standards of living, but rather that you don’t need a mansion to be comfortable and happy. I hope you can reach out to your ‘normal’ neighbours but watch out - in my experience the quieter ones are the ones to be wary of! 😉
@David Wanklyn I lived in flats before moving here, it was a nice feeling to have my own front door! Sometimes the lack of privacy drives me crazy - crying babies, couples rowing, traffic, men sawing through bits of wood on Sunday morning, I have to remind myself that that’s life. It can be both a benefit and a pain and I guess we have different tolerance levels for it, some of us very comfortable with large extended families who go on holiday together, others needing that quiet time. There is both here - as I write it’s 6.20 in the evening and I don’t expect any noise and I won’t play my My Bloody Valentine records as loud as I can - it’s like a social contract, but no-one talks about it, it’s just the done thing.
You see ‘life’ in more foreigners arriving. Oh dear. Good luck
Really touching a nerve with this! As a 30 year old I'm so discusted with the financialization of homes.
"financialization"
It's not a word is it.
@@PA-lf8sd neither's 'discusted' while you're about it
@@PA-lf8sd en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financialization
Most working class people when they retire, their private pensions will just go to wealthy landlords in rent, they won’t get the chance to own their own homes. Rich private landlords have snapped up most affordable properties. Absolutely disgraceful how this has been allowed to happen.
landlords need punishment.
@Dave it’s funny you mention economics because it’s actually the most fundamental principle of economics supply and demand. Currently the reason why house prices are high is because there is a high demand for houses yet not enough houses to buy. This is for several different reasons but mostly due to the population increase over the past few decades, property investors buying several homes to rent ( usually lower cost homes and turning them into hmo/ student housing) and the fact that we can’t put houses up quick enough to the population increase
@Dave so when the ultra rich own a large majority of lower value houses that makes the demand for lower value houses higher. That is the point I made, the houses that are being built deem 200k houses as affordable housing.
@Dave I think you’re not very smart. I’m talking about the price of a house (house prices), not rent. If most of the terraced houses have been brought in order to rent in a town, it makes finding a terraced house becoming available to buy more difficult to find meaning there is a high demand to buy low value homes yet the supply is low. This means that what used to be entry level homes are now 200k. You’re talking about renting too which is another reason why it is expensive to rent a house that is low value is because most of the terraced houses are being rented as hmos and student housing again meaning that the demand for low rent houses is high but the supply is low. I’m not sure how you don’t understand this. Like I said it is mixed in with multiple factors as well
@Dave landlords do effect the number of properties AVAILABLE, renting and buying are not seen as substitutes one is owning the other is leasing. A close example of a substitute in this example is wanting to buy a home and buy a flat instead
As an realtor , who refuses to work in the residential sector , i agree with every word they said .... Not just in Britain but also all over the world ...
Mid 2020 We paid 125k for a well built, well maintained, well insulated house on a solid commute line in an "unfashionable" area of the Midlands, on a minimum payment less than our rent, 50k less than the max mortgage we were offered (on bad credit rating on my side). Did not stretch for a "high yielding" first step. Currently comfortably overpaying to save on future interest, and I never intend to leave this lovely home - bit of a loft conversion in the next 5year remortgage, bit of a two-story back extention in the next one, plenty of space for everyone. My house price is where it was 4 months ago, because I didn't buy BS. Flex? Sure, I flex for taking a risk-conscious approach for the biggest damn investment of my life. If this country learns to not be again blinded by greed once the dust settles, maybe we have a good future.
I just relocated to London for work and lived most of my life in Dubai. I can assure you and by looking at the value of properties in London, they are ridiculous quality wise, bad value for money. The worst of all in the UK housing economy are the real estate agents who work as devils for sales and rent.
The buying and sales of properties in the UK should be performed without the inefficiency of middlemen using technology. If I throw in a random figure, the UK GDP could easily benefit 5% efficiency if real estate agents are knockout of the transaction processes and stamp duty which i fail to understand the deep value behind it.
There have been systems to automate the process but the 'industry' works against them.
Estate agents are a big proble. House prices in London are not indicative of the whole the UK, one main problem is the lack of new housing being built.
@@nicolajohnson1887 Lack of new housing….due to mass immigration
Relocated to London for work recently like you and I 100% agree with everything you said. Absolute dumps with paper thin walls advertised as "luxury" and parasitic rental agencies taking months to do basic repairs - only after you call them 10 times a day begging for it.
I was evicted from my London bedsit of 10 years this spring- where I lived on incapacity benefit (I am autistic). I have been homeless since. Stoke newington is being gentrified.
The horrific design aesthetic, outdated function and general disrepair of these properties and ex council homes priced at hundreds of thousands of pounds is insanity. And once you’ve paid the interest on your mortgage they cost hundreds of thousands more than that
And rent is dead money.
It's a real shame people live in areas of the country where houses are just stupidly expensive. My house cost me £92,000 for a 3 bedroom house with a decent garden. Ex council.
@@thedeathcake that’s very true as well
They should never have been sold and stayed as council houses.
@@andy_xtr3861 not necessarily, the proceeds should have been earmarked for new council housing stock though.
Really encouraging to see truth like this reach a mainstream audience.
There’s a new build being built near where I rent. Looked into the prices just out of curiosity. 1 bed flat, 53 square meters, starting from 730k. Who on earth would ever buy something at this price? I’m wondering how long this will all sit empty for. This is just ridiculous.
Those with extensive property portfolio's will just sit on empty properties - they can afford it.
I see it where I live (UK) - loads of properties, perfectly good to live in, just being left empty.
Sad state of affairs.
chinese blood money
The trouble is low interest rates everywhere has made the prices shoot up everywhere. The politicians clearly knew that it would increase asset prices but they were quite happy about it as that would keep their core voters happy. Younger generation is quite indifferent to politics and don't vote hence they can easily be ignored. The trouble is people don't see the downsides of higher property prices once they buy and want it go higher and higher. It is quite bad for the next generation who have wait longer and earner higher, people have to wait until 35-40 to buy one and start a family which is bad for nation due to lower or negative birth rate, less money to spend elsewhere after paying for mortgages ruining economy with that money sitting with the big banks.
Leverage fuelled speculation because of low interest rates is the cause of house price inflation. It only takes two wanna be amateur landlords bidding up properties to affect the future price in that street.
Estate agents don’t value, they guess, based on comparative properties, and what they think it’ll fetch. That’s another reason for run away prices, avaricious commission based estate agents pushing the ceiling at every opportunity.
Look at how a stamp duty holiday saw no drop in prices instead adding the discount onto the price, oddly paid over the mortgage, which means a former cash one off sum was rolled into more debt.
Higher interest rates spells disaster for over leveraged landlords who can’t pass on increased costs due to energy and food price inflation. Or they increase rents in the hope the government subsidies them through the benefits system paid to renters. In my view the middle have been, are, and will be, the biggest beneficiaries of the state due to these subsidies. Yet they deride not getting on, like they did, as they press the boot into the faces of those they’re robbing of the chance to get on. George Orwell, “Imagine a boot stamping on your face forever”.
no, low interest rates are just an excuse, not a reason. if "trickle down" really worked, as incomes of the highest earners increased they would spend more. they don't spend more even notionally let alone proportionally. this shows the nonsense to the whole agenda. low interest rates are the only practical response to the inevitable.
Not true, young people are highly politicised, but none of our major parties are speaking to them.
@@dickybannister5192 If low rates are not the reason then can we expect a 20% yoy price growth for houses now? If it was not for the low rates(0.1%) we or any developed country in the world would not have such house price growth during COVID.
Im just about in the 35-40, you have described me. Spot on
We get sucked into this vicious loop of material egotistical world that just forget to cherish the simple pleasures of this only short life we know we have 🙄
This...as a 28 year old I didn't realise quite how much I got sucked into this. I constantly hear parents constantly talking of how their house/estate is their "legacy" that they want to leave behind. I have only recently fully recognised how sad that notion is.
Vanity of vanities, the "modern world" and it's vanities
Yep its the old boomer ideology. Owning a home is pointless and its just been realized by millennials now.
What is more, people look at themselves as projects. They are unhappy about the need of constant improvement and they forget about living in the present. That's like a curse.
Yeah... So material, just wanting a place to live.
Even neanderthals had caves and make shift tents, it's illegal to wild camp in England.
Wanting a place to live without having to beg the King fir it and then pay your life's earnibg back in mortgage, rent and taxes isn't being vein or materialistic.
Wanting a mansion, 5 cars, billions in cash, and posting about it all on your facebook is being materialistic. See the difference?
Comrade from across the pond here. This was an eye-opening video. Sadly, I've always viewed renters in the U.K. as having far greater protections than we. The invisible hand of the free market seems to be choking out the entirety of the working class.
Anyway, in the U.S., when a landlord or leasing corp is "mortgaged to the hilt," the private market corrects itself by way of firesale to savvier capitalists. Since so few states have tenant laws with any teeth, the tenant is not considered in this process-- save for the notice taped on their door to vacate, etc.
We call it a "free market economy" and that sounds
nice. Sounds safe, innocuous. But what do you call a thing that has no regard for the lives it crushes, makes houseless, creates despair and suicide?
This is not sustainable. This is heartbreaking. Our governments break their backs to accommodate the wealthy while the working class is left to fend for itself. Marx and Engels called it way back in 1848, "Workers of the world, unite!" That's probably a good idea.
e: fixed my barbarian grammar
Marx and Engels are blasphemous swear words in the capitalist world. You mention them, and people get heart palpitations. But a lot of what they said was fair observation.
@@frusia123 Marx and Engels are more relevant now than ever, I think. Marx was such a prescient thinker, amazing to think that his published work started in 1848. Crazy.
You're right, you mention one of them in a convo and out come the knives.
As long as the people of the UK aspire to Home ownership, and as long as there are more people who aspire to ownership than there are homes for them, then the property market will not crash. Supply and demand. The market might fluctuate a little as interest rates make ownership even more unaffordable, but not more than that.
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been thinking about this for a while now. A good deal of property on my tiny island where I live is landlord owned. In the last property census 4.5k properties were vacant - yet new estates were being built - which doesn't really make sense. Most of the "vacant" property was bought by developers - presumably to refurbish - yet years later still stands vacant. It is a completely fake and horribly fictitious, inflated market. And frankly, we were lulled into the renting is better than buying fiasco (also because nobody could reasonably afford the inflated prices).
So you can afford to buy food at today's "inflated' prices??
This is THE issue of our time, housing prices trickle down and exasperate every other problem in society.
I am in uk about 10 years and it is disgusting how housing business is in this country.
I was thinking to buy a property, but now, never! It would be suicide! I have 2 renters on my home in my country. But my home has quality. Here in uk it would value millions. I hope this crisis cleans these owners...they have been stilling from tenants. Now i hope they calm down and the business stops for some years.
The house market in the UK is absolutely horrible!
Also, the quality control of new build is manage by a mafia! New build in the UK are made with paper. When I see kids who can afford to buy, buying a new build for 200k, I'm chocked by the standard of quality.
The UK used to have a higher standard than this.
Plus everything is made for the protection of the promoters businesses, nothing for the poor guy saving and working hard to buy a property.
The UK is a sinking ship! Except for politicians and a few people comfortable with money.
for a 500 000 you can get raffle-house 🤣🤣
then go home.
It's good to finally see someone saying what you have known for years. Thank you.
Homes should be for living in.
They ARE
Even landlords benefit from having people living in their homes.
Please take a minute to watch walkonthewildside's latest video with a German man who tried improving homes in Blackpool. It is shocking to see the barriers that have been put in his way.
We need a massive correction to bring prices back to their long-term trendline (and hopefully below) but it's hard to see how it's going to happen tbh. A short period of mild weakness gets jumped upon but each time it just turns out to be a short-term inflection point rather than a genuine trend change. I mean, where are prices back to after a few months of weakness? Not even a year ago. Smh.
Too big to fail
Sadly true. Simple truth is we're just not building enough places. We need property to plateau for an extended period to allow the wages to close the gap. Investors love volatility, and a crash will just unsettle finance for normal buyers and see foreign institutions weigh in.
Prices won’t go down by much Demand to big and costs on new buildings means there always by high
Is there anywhere decent a UK person (average no skills) can move to for less of the problems we have?somewhere with not a huge drop in standard of living
@@billytheripper4 up north is where I would look
The change from the income multipliers to affordability was the biggest screw up ever, and has been the biggest contributer to house price expansion. The FSC, CML have a lot to answer for creating this mess. Compounded by demand outstripping supply only made matters worse. The next big thing that will make the situation worse will be increased mortgage terms leading to lifetime mortgages. The only beneficiaries are the banks, BOE and the baby boomers. Everyone else will be screwed for a lifetime of debt.
I remember the 7:84 theatre company from years ago (named because 7% of the population owned 84% of the wealth) doing a play called 'The Great Money Trick'. Some of the words were 'Property, o property, that's the thing for you and me. Houses land and lots of cash, separate us from the trash'. (I've forgotten the rest)
That 7% should therefore be paying 84% of the tax! All taxes and not just income tax.
@@evertonfrancis640 Undoubtedly, and it's also good not to allow the gap between rich and poor to keep widening. The play was a satire, by the way, in case anyone thinks the words were in support of the 7%.
@@evertonfrancis640 What utility is there in taxing real estate as income? Explain please?
@@terencefield3204 Well, I never heard anyone suggest that but taxing land value has a lot going for it. Search this, it has been well studied and documented.
@@heliotropezzz333 If you earn above 30k you are in the top 1% of earners globally.
Should rich people support those worse off? If yes, how much of your personal salary will you send to them?
Danny Dorling, is a gem. More please!
The housing market Ponzi would have already collapsed if the only available mortgage were the good old 25 year re-payment, they have stopped a collapse by offering mortgages over longer periods and this will carry on until houses are so expensive new buyers will need life time deals.
All to get new buyers into the Ponzi, it defo is a Ponzi with lenders at the top and the government also at the top reaping capital gains.
Prices collapsed back in the 90s I experienced negative equity
It happens and people still need a home to live in
Fall if 20/30 % on the cards
I think people in UK are so naive,cos they believe everything the British press tell them.Firstly in Europe you can have a fixed rate mortgage for the term of the loan.Tge interest rates are very cheap The council tax is also very low.Rentsvare much cheaper too!Wake up people!!!!!
We pay a lot to protect our system. That’s why interest rates are low and are planned to be reduced. If Britain was a human our sleeves would be bustling with options.
Of course the British are ignorant, exploited, naive, arrogant, unaware of anything that could aid them. When was it other?
Portugal, Lisbon! Talk about a failed economic plan from a Government. For years they pushed the golden Visa scheme, every year 70-80% house purchases made by you guessed it... the Chinese.
Average wage in Portugal 1180 euros p/m
Average Lisbon house price 399,000.00 euros
The Portuguese people have no chance
So let's get some perspective and gain a bit of knowledge before we spout untruths!
@@slevinheaven Europe is not just Portugal and Lisbon so maybe do some research before spouting untruths!
@@taefravis 😂😂 here he is!
It's only people in England that think housing prices have gone up. If you adjusted it for the older UK CPI prices haven't kept up with inflation since 2008 and neither have wages. So what fills the gap? Debt. It's a ponzi scheme exactly like your title. Great video.
You need the same number of ounces to buy a house today as you did in the 60's.
It is the value of money that has fallen.
The point is wages haven't followed. A big scam.
The entire financial system is a ponzi scheme. Currency debased, no tangible value in fiat finance. And as for the genius idea of debt based financing, only an idiot would contrive such a system.
This nation is screwed, all we can do is wait for everyone to jump ship, and then go back to farming the land.
This nation will be a ghost town in 10 years. Someone should let the migrants know, and save them a journey, mayne they might leave a space on the boats back to France? 🤣😂🤣
I live in Australia, which is experiencing its own dilemma with housing. At least the UK has a properly managed public housing sector. Thousands of Aussies are now relegated to a park bench or worse. What people have not realised is that DEBT is an instrument of government control. They were unable to do anything about it.
That's the point Nina, we don't have a functioning social (public) housing sector. if you cant afford to rent, you're on park bench's and you probably wont last the next few months (at least in Oz the climate is warm and you have much MUCH less restrictions on planning, making it easier when it comes to tiny housing/alternate building methods, not to mention the fact you have much more usable space then we do (if comparing)
@@WGK90imagine being sent here as punishment. How times change!
There’s no public housing in the uk. Maggie gave them all away like jellybeans
I believe that allowing the Estates agents to sell houses on a blind bid is a part of the problem by increasing the house pricing way to much.
Basically you find a house you reall like they tell you they have 4 bids but don't tell you how much, to make sure you get the house you bid 250k,
and if those 4 other bids are 210, 212 , 215 and 220k you could of saved 29k by only placing an offer of 221k.
Hate estate agents with a passion....we all know what's going on. I'm sure they think it's monopoly money they are playing with. I'm into my fourth year of trying to buy a home and it's the estate agents that are the problem.
estate agents are traitors, always have sold us out for blood money
Thank you for this report. I'm really glad that you mention the social class system and how it has changed over the 20th century. There was a documentary in the wake of the Grenfell tragedy about the relationship between rich Notting Hill and neighbouring poor Notting Dale (where Grenfell tower stands), in West London. There was one statistic that I will never forget: the wealth disparity between the two areas was 1:150, the same as it was in the 19th century. But in the mid-1970s, when Grenfell tower was built, the wealth disparity was 1:25.
Notting Dale was historically the poorest area in London. I used to work near Grenfell Tower and know the Lancaster West Estate and surrounding area. I used to drink in The North Pole and The Pavilion.
Heineken
@@angelachanelhuang1651 Stella and Staropramen actually.
@@eightiesmusic1984 Was it cold drinking in the North Pole?
@@notmenotme614 Freezing. Don't give up the day job. Comedy is not your best skill.
The maket trend can turn around very quickly. In fact, the indexes often switch from a bear market to a bull market when the news is at its worst and the mood of investors is at its lowest point. I read an article of people that grossed profits up to $150k during this crash, what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist?.
When it comes to investing in stocks, one of the biggest mistakes investors can make is throw in the towel right when we hit a bear market bottom and the indexes find support and start to surge. I've been in touch with a coach for awhile now mostly cause I lack the depth knowledge and mental fortitude to deal with these recurring market conditions, I nettd over $220K during this dip, that made it clear there's more to the market that we avg joes don't know.
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I’d like to think we’ll have a property crash, but supply issues will stop a crash. The system failed when houses were treated as an asset.
They haven't risen "steadily" though, anyone who bought just before covid is about 30% up because everyone in inner city flats panicked and wanted a garden to sit in in the sunshine.
This is a correction of that abnormal surge. I'd expect prices to "crash" to be about 10 or 15% up on pre-covid, which will still show as a -10% or more, but reflects a more normal picture. Kinda sucks for those who are stuck on the spike and bought at the very peak, but there's no way we're going to dip below end of 2019/beginning of 2020 prices again. Anyone who bought before lockdown 1 is "safe".
Of course, hyperbolic media outlets will talk about a BIG CRASH if if dips by 10 or 15 percent, but this is a normal collection for an asset that ballooned unexpectedly and as a result of a behaviour that was tangible. Same with breeders scalping the price of puppies because families panicked and wanted a Lockdown Dog, they've already gone down to a more normalised pre-Covid level, and that's what is happening to house prices. The'll settle at 10 or so percent up from early 2020.
The -50% that 18 year olds and wannabe Landlords want so that they can swoop in is never going to happen.
japan had it
Since the eighties I have argued the right to buy scheme would create problems as new council housing was and Is not being built and private landlords have moved in and taken over good former council housing which they charge high rents for.
Not everyone can afford to get a mortgage some will always need council or housing association housing.
It baffles me that property is treated as an investment. You can only live in one house at once so why does it matter how much it costs.
And a simple fact. Renting over the long term costs the same as buying. But as most people are bad at math, they don't realise this.
Why is Gold, Silver and Crypto treated as an 'investment"? You cannot eat or drink it.
Your main residence is free of capital gains tax. Put the same money into almost any other asset and you’ll pay between 10% and 28% on most of the gains and income tax on any dividends. The favourable tax treatment is a huge factor in why property is such a popular investment and why prices are so high. Any party that tried taking it away would never get elected.
@@stevenhull5025 you can actually eat gold and silver.
Sadly this is a result of having a parliament where most MP's and those who set fiscal and social policies are all landlords with a property portfolio. This incentivises them to make decisions that increase the number of renters and make it more lucrative to own property and rent it out as a secondary (or primary) income.
This is simply untrue, it completely missed the simple point that there isn't enough housing being built to keep up with the population increase and therefore a very basic economic principle of supply not meeting demand. They almost touched on this when discussing council housing, which cost effectively provided millions of homes for decades and yet the level of houses being built hasn't increased much in decades. Now it's almost all the private sector and guess what happens if prices go down, they'll stop building homes as they can't make a profit. For this reason house prices can't just be halved and sustainably stay that level, unless all the builders, tradespeople & architects all want to take half pay too.. this just isn't how an economy works.
2022 saw the tail end of a very busy post-covid sales market with rediculous price increases, we then had a war on our doorstep, faced massive inflation especially in the energy sector and had massive interest rate hikes and STILL the market has only gone down by 3%.. if we were in a bubble that figure should be 30% given the above conditions. I do however fully expect it to go down up to 10% in low income areas of the uk this year, but it'll bounce back and go up again, it always recovers and continues and always will do until more homes are built.
This video is nothing but mis-informed scaremongering.
Typical left leaning narrative. but doesn't mention the heard of elephants in the room. Blair's stated policy to rub diversity in the noses of the British people, so they invited 7.5MIllion people in and didn't plan for it with extra housing,
@@jamesmc1272 I completely agree, if the borders close tomorrow our population stays virtually the same (31k natural increase in 2020) and builders can slowly catch up with demand, this or building far more houses is the only way to slow house price increases in the long term.
I despise our useless, selfish and corrupt politicians who allowed and orchestrated this situation.
Napoleon would have said that Britain is a nation of property speculators
I was born in Oxford. Can't afford to move out of my parents house at 35.
500,000 people arrived here last year that get priority housing over you.
Would be even worse under a Labour government.
@@TG-ts3xn we will soon find out :) Tories out!
@@gdwe1831 you sure will, labour loves uncontrolled immigration even more then the tories
Last time I checked, the house you live in doesn’t make money. If you think it does that is where you’re deluded. An investment is defined as something that makes you money. The house you live in is far from that, it’s a liability that costs money every month. So completely agree, those over stretched to buy the biggest house they can afford are potentially at risk.
“A house is to live in, not to rent out.” If we got back to something resembling normality on that front, then it might be better for us all?
Margret Thatcher's right to buy only benefited one generation, those people that were sitting in a great position and bought then pulled the ladder up behind them.
Life is all about good or bad timing, sometimes for a lot of people whatever you do or try you will always be pissing into the wind, pay well over the odds for the exact same thing.
Just another example of the Tory madness in absolving themselves of the nitty gritty of actually running vital resources for the good of all rather than just privatising everything.
Thank you and the professor for tying the pieces together. Two of the most important takeaways are (a) social housing helps keep a lid on house prices and renst and (b) how we have/are returned/returning to the pre-North Sea Oil Britain which was then built on class and now is built on money/assets. Brexit, the pandemic and now the cost of living crisis which have, between them, impoverished many Britons, are the most highly visible reasons. However, the role of 'blue-sky' thinking of government which turns out to have destructive long-term side effects should not be underestimated.
The structure of the UK is now more like the 1930s, Between the end of the war and the end of the 1970s we built millions of council houses and the private sector had to compete on price. We also built the NHS and dozens of new universities. Since Thatcher we created an economy of financial engineering, anti science, corrupt cronyism and rentier capitalism. Haves an have nots are poles apart, we also have a government that any 3rd world dictator would be proud of.
The wealthy home owners probably won't ever watch this as they know the government currently are in same boat as them and won't let their property wealth go down as well. So it will continuously keep cycling up for both of them, while most of the average household population who watches this can just wish there will be a crash or chance for us to get into that circle and then let the cycle continue. The solution actually is if no one owns the properties and we go back to a system of council homes and we rent from the government so there is no disparity or inequality, more money goes towards government and not private sector so it can be invested into healthcare, education, infrastructure etc. If you earn more then you can pay more rent on a bigger home and that's fair enough, but no one should own any homes or multiples homes then rent them out for personal gain. Properties should be for living and bring up families and not a private business venture to exploit people.
historically called unearned income
I'm 26. I have a deposit for a house saved up. It took me 4 years to get here.
The last year has convinced me not to buy a house. There's better things I can do with the money for now.
Danny is fantastic. I watched him for a few years now and he's never wrong.
Where do you watch him?
@@puccarts outside his window, obviously
He's wrong here.
Housing is not a Ponzi.
For the last 80 years the value of UK housing has been around a 40% of UK total wealth.
It still is. £6 billion out of £15 billion.
Ooops. £6 trillion out of £15trillion.
The only way for house prices to come down is if property becomes unappealing to foreign investors. Truss gave us a head start, but what you really need is
- at least one party being a British citizen in order to buy more than one house
- identity checks and proof of finance checks, even when buying fully in cash
The ability of foreign dirty money being able to be washed through British property is benefitting no one. Where is the money going? Certainly not back into the public.
There are 80,000 empty flats in London, worth £1 million plus. Mainly owned by Chinese investors.
Foreign investment strengthens the Pound Sterling substantially.
@@Mustafa-vz5kx Yet inflation and living standards is the worst of all advanced countries. The 'benefits' of becoming the banking world's laundromat doesn't seem to have been passed down to the general public.
Plenty of developed and developing countries require a purchaser to be a citizen, or have a hefty tax for being a foreigner wanting to buy. It protects their own from foreign investors.
@@stephfoxwell4620 not just a Uk problem though. My sister lives in Cyprus and the house opposite owned by a Chinese man who only bought it to obtain a visa and has never even been to the house never mind lived in it.
Heck why not just ban private landlord portfolios? Ban second home ownership too. Like should owning multiple homes be a commodity when people need a first home? It's crazy to me that the needs of the rich are put before the poorest. If more homes come on market, it drives prices down as there is more of them.
When I hear people say we've bought our own house I want to scream. What they're saying is, they've paid the deposit, got the key and a contract to keep paying some financial institution for the next 25 - 45 years. What they've really signed up to is a hire purchase agreement like when people bought a car or washing machine decades ago. When/if you stop paying they take it back. Simple as that. Your much beloved home will now become a "mortgagee sale"
Indeed. People call themselves home owners when they have barely payed their deposit. It's not your house, it's the bank's.
Wait 20 years and see who is better off
I'm a hippy and I've been telling people to live a life not a.lie. nobody gets out alive and nobody can take money! As you grow older you will need and want less and people.miss this completely....
Thank you for a very informative video. It feels like the housing pricing in the UK is unsustainable for people who live and work here, and actively contribute to the economy, not " safe heaven investors" just hoarding the land and properties... It is so messed up that owning a property has become a cult and is out of reach for the majority of the younger generation, so they have to postpone starting a family or chose not to, as having the security of affordable accommodation is vital. It would be interesting to see what is the total valuation of the UK residential market vs its GDP today.
good video but you have forgot property speculators, investors and groups that buy property in bulk to make returns for clients and also airbnb, and foreign rich holiday homes. its far far worse than even this video shows. but well done for calling it a Ponzi as it is.
illegal migrants driving social housing demand? i see it every day
It’s just a market with buyers and sellers. Less than 30% of owners have a mortgage so interest rates don’t affect them or force them to sell.
Councils sell their social housing to housing associations - which are fronts for Private Hedge funds etc. This should never be allowed.
Allowed? During the mid-late 1990's became compulsory that HA's borrow commercially at commercial rates instead of subsidy from the Housing Corporation. Over a very few years the boards of HA's became dominated by money men, and philanthropic principles of their origins were expunged in takeovers and boardroom coups as they became ever-larger private landlords with charitable status. It was an act of wilful vandalism and cruelty.
Exactly what's happening in Ireland. A 3 bed semi in a working class area is about 600,000,,€
ive never seen landlords as contributing towards economic production, they certainly serve a useful purpose when someone needs a place quickly or short term. However often landlords will outbid first time buyers on the property market. and then giving them the kind courtesy of being able to rent the same property that they wanted to BUY
Correct, I bought around 6 months ago, which in some ways was lucky, mortgage offers started to get pulled the day after I moved in. But I must have bid on 40 properties way over asking price, in the end even blindly without viewing it, just to see if it was possible to even have a bid accepted. Quite often I’d turn up for a viewing to see, a middle aged couple, with Hunter boots and a nice Barbour jacket leaving before me. Bare in mind this was for a low budget one bedroom flat. No chance they were planning to live in it!
@@NTL578 do u think the boomer landlords are targeting the most affordable homes? as margins prbly better on them low property price vrs amount they can charge for rent
@@quackcement yes they do my boyfriend parents have douzens of flats it pays their retirement pension.
But we need MORE landlords, because, get this, the more of them there are, the supply increases, and they will voluntarily lower their prices.
Sick joke. Its a tiny majority of people who actually need to rent, if housing was affordable they would straight up buy a house and just sell it when they needed to move. Like back in grandpa's day
@@billytheripper4 seems like a greed issue, less landlords mean that they want to charge an unreasonable amount to renters. they charge more because they can.
Try living in Devon, where local communities are disappearing and hundreds of households have been evicted by individuals owning BnBs and second homes. That racket - coupled with constant refusals to build affordable homes - is the reason for the housing crisis and rising numbers of homeless people. People with more money than sense are collecting available rental accommodation for their portfolio. All of those properties stand empty for most of the year and their owners contribute nothing but misery to the areas in which they buy.
we should ban buy to let, called unearned income previously
The 1970,s started all the race on house prices , purchased a new semi bungalow for £4,250 .00 , two years later sold it for £ 10, 250 and so it has gone on . At the start I was earning £23.00 a week .
The people of the UK are the frogs, but the water has been boiling now for so long I fear they will never jump out
This is the exact same esenario in Canada, this hold Ponzi scheme has lasted 30 years and they know this is the reason inequality is rising, but greed has made them blind. There will be a time when it will become unsustainable to keep the scheme
And Austalia and New Zealand.
People think that if they buy a house it will be a good investment for the future. However, if the sell they will still have to use most of the cash on another house unless they downsize and live in a rougher area. What I also noticed in London, expensive houses over a million don't sell quickly so the owners has to stay put forever.
we bought so that when we reached retirement we would be living rent free, that's why it makes sense to buy
Really interesting video. The spiralling cost of housing, and tiny supply of new housing currently in the UK, is something the mainstream media don't profile much, but it has to be one of the biggest aspects of the lives of the majority of the country's working citizenry, whose living standards are now under real pressure. The current governing party have been in power for more than 12 years, but I think they like the country, and especially London and the south east to have a low housing supply as it ensures rich people become richer, and that the working citizens are tied, in one way or another, financially to either a mortgage, or long-standing rental arrangements - both of which stifle an individual's, or a family's aspirations to own their own property.
The level of economic illiteracy here is extraordinary.
Housing in Britain has fallen in value in just eight years in the past 76. Prices since 1962 have doubled seven times in 60 years.
An average rise of 8% a year.
The cost of buying a house is no greater now,over 25 years, as a ratio to average income than it was in 2005 or 1990.
It is just that our society is more unequal.
Some people buy three houses, but 40% buy none at all.
I've been thinking that UK house prices were the most overpriced asset for most of my life. Whenever I did the maths it just didn't make sense to effectively rent from a bank with the extra responsibility of maintenance and without the benefit of being able to just give a months's notice when I wanted to move. What other asset is leveraged to 20 x the deposit by ordinary people and then further leveraged by the greedy to borrow against to buy even more so they can rent it out to those they have priced out?
I missed out on the opportunity to buy during the financial crisis by it happening precisely 2 weeks after I left the country for nearly 2 years in Australia, where it barely had an effect. I finally gave in and bought a modest flat last year almost certain that it would be the worst time and that my purchase would be the grain of sand that set off the collapse. That prices are only slightly off when mortgage rates have doubled is baffling to me. Who is buying and taking on such huge mortgages?
Cash buyers. Govt £ handouts during covid fell into the hands of the wealthiest. So what to do with this surplus cash? Give it to family to cash buy their first house or cash buy a bunch themselves building out a large portfolio to rent out. This video is spot on the housing market is a con.
Cash buyers dominate markets. But also fractional reserve banking system allows banks to print money to the high heavens...more specifically 10:1 which is insane and "bubblish". where's the pin, and more importantly Who's holding it?
Great to hear from Danny Dorling - his lectures are fantastic and his analysis is usually spot-on
Glad you enjoyed the video!
Only time will tell
There are 2 big problems which if the government wanted to, they could fix quite easily. 1 - Reform the Housing Act to make it easier for councils to build new housing stock as well as ending the “Right to buy” your council property, the latter is a big part of the reason why there is so little council housing stock available. 2 - Using the “Path of least resistance” principle to incentivise private housing building firms to build more housing that we actually need rather than what will currently maximise their profits, in other words use the tax system to tax larger properties (3/4/5 bedrooms) while at the same time offering tax incentives to build 1/2 bedroom properties for first time buyers, young people & those looking to downsize later in life as well as the much forgotten single person’s market (which nobody ever seems to mention). They also need to reform the current planning processes to make it easier for people to buy land that they can have their own property built on or even self-build on, the latter has to potential to be a massive boom industry for companies that design & build prefabricated buildings (I know it’s a dirty word, but methods & materials have moved on and improved quite a bit). Successive governments have missed opportunity after opportunity to reform & energise the way we build where we live.
We're kinda stuck buying this year as I took a job further north and moved in with family temporarily to help deal with another ridiculous cost; childcare - because the days of having a mortgage on a single unskilled income are also gone so we both have to work full time.
We're surprisingly OK - In the north east we get a 3 bedroom semi for £140k (8% below asking price) - with a 20% deposit and a mortgage of less than 3x our combined income means we can weather a crash. The original interest rate also dropped from 6% to 4.5%. - not great in the context of the last 10 years but lower than average historically.
But even then, the cost of living crisis means we have to budget carefully.
The people in real trouble are those who bought with 5% deposits at higher prices, and were relying on low interest rates in order to afford their ridiculously expensive homes. When those fixed terms come to an end you're going to see a huge wave of sales and repossessions.
The rental market sadly will remain lucrative because cash buyers will take advantage of the crash and they don't need to worry about interest rates. Yet another reason we need properly regulated and protected social housing.
I see a lot of Brits saying that prices won't come down because there's to many people invested in the scheme and housing shortages and such, but that belief is literally what underpinned the financial crisis in the U.S in 2008. No one thought that housing prices would fall because historically they hadn't, until they did. Now that belief was held in the U.S for overly optimistic reasons instead of the pessimistic reasons the British believe prices won't fall, but that doesn't change the fact that it's not a safe thing to believe. The thing about a belief based on constant positive growth in a particular market is that market doesn't have to collapse or even depreciate to destroy to system it supports. It just has to not grow. Just breaking even year to year in the housing market would unravel any future-based speculation completely. Then since those future markets are always vastly larger than the ones they are derived from, their failure triggers a near unstoppable domino effect.
We don’t have a crazy bond system which was based off insurance estimates. We’re in 2023 and economists are aware and will not partake in purposeful negligence. Don’t be scared. Don’t lose money based on fear buddy
I think it extremely unlikely that the UK housing market will do anything as simple as stay at 0% growth.
I have been saying for a long time that house prices were unsustainable, and Brexit is certainly going to exacerbate the damage of the bubble bursting.
And, of course, you have all that laundered money swilling around the streets of London and the SE, as well as the idiotic buy-to-rent market.
The money launderers will ju7st as readily up sticks and move on to another market, their laundering will take a hit, but it's all in the black, and laundering always loses a bit of the lucre, so who cares?
Then there's the buy-to-renters, and however much I feel I should be sorry for them, I can't. They've abused an abusive system and been directly responsible for warping the whole market. They've also been the demographic that has happily supported the UK's corrupting an d corrupt Tories.
And finally there's the millions who've been good Tories, believed their lies, believed they'd never be let down.
And all the while, not one of them could give a flying f*ck for anybody who was struggling.
Excuse me while I feel not an ounce of pity for any of them.
Historically house price won’t fall? Clearly you didn’t look too far in history. Back in the 80s in the uk we had a major crash with people getting stuck in negative equity and mortgage rates going up so high and so fast people take home pay was less than the new mortgage rate.
The problem over in the uk was removing housing costs from inflation measurement allowing banks to inflate the cost of housing without feeding into inflation and driving up wage demands. Couple that to letting the banks set their own reserve ratios meant the banks could borrow what they liked and lend as much as they liked to homeowners. With the flood of easy to come by and cheap cost loans the cost of housing speed upwards. This then locked in the need for cheap loans and so the entire market became unbalanced.
All of the above was caused by New Labour who’s policies led to the far greater crash in 2008 than it needed to be.
They also failed to build council houses because they wanted to inflate house prices because of the growth this caused and the artificial increase this brought. We have never recovered from 2008 and the tories have only made it worse with things like Help to buy and backing the lenders. The recent removal of stress tests on mortgage applicants is a desperate move and is tempting fate.
Both Labour and conservatives parties are totally inept and are completely unsuited for government.
Yes, ask the Japanese that saw 70% fall in apartment prices in Tokyo after their bubble!
Ah but... House prices only dipped a bit before quickly recovering after 2008..
Well as a Brit who, thank goodness, egrimated long ago, it was clear that the fraud of housing finance there has acted in a particular way.
This is what has happened.
The banks have created an asset class of real estate equivalent to bonds, but better. Bond prices move with the reciprocal of the rate, but housing does so when interest rates fall, but there is stickiness when they rise. This policy is deliberate, not accidental. Bankers employ the sharpest minds on the planet.
AN example.
After 2007/8, rates fell from about 7-8% down to .5-1.5%.
A fall multiple of about 5-6 times.
The cost to purchase real estate then rose by about 4 times.
The monthly 'affordability' (social fraud calculation) declined.
People then, at the margin, paid 4 x times the prior generation for real estate/ The property buyers thought, quite naively, (and were encouraged to do so!) about affordability per month, not their absurd indebtedness.
NOW
Rates are rising by about 400% to about 7% by next year.
Thus mortgage holders on these inflated asset values will soon be paying gigantic interest charges where they have to refinance rates, on assets that will offer pitiful returns of capital value from now for the next 25 years, given the permanently ruined state of the British non-economy.
Why did it happen?
Most Gentiles are not taught to understand compound interest. They are economically illiterate in the majority.
They have NO concept of value for money, intergenerational wealth, and are prey to a socialist state that removes almost all sense of personal responsibility, opportunity, indeed reality. A history of wide-spread ingrained poverty, lack of expectations, and their general level of education sets them as prey for clever rational well educated and opportunistic financiers
The hard truth about impoverishment and slavery.
In South London there is an agreeable suburb, built in the inter war period, by the name of Worcester Park. As one rides the train to the station there, a weathered sign on a shop building, there for over 50 years advertised that in that inter war period, a new house in Worcester Park could be purchased for about 250 pounds, with garage, 280 pounds. The mortgage was tax deductable with an appropriate endowment policy, which yielded a substantial gain at the end of the mortgage period. Not available now.
Then the single male annual wage was of the order of 120-140 pounds per year.
That is to say, a home there was priced at 2 x single male income. Male, since that is how a kinder society worked then.
Now, that home is priced at in excess of 9 - 10 times single average 'wage'.
Yet you are all told that you are better off than your grand-parents and great grand-parents.
You are lied to, Wholesale.
In effect, you are slaves if both of you have to take out whole-life mortgages for these little houses, and where you have the prospect of losing your home over that lifetime period if one of you becomes ill or dies.
Thus, in real terms, in hard practical terms, you are enslaved. You have, functionally, no liberty.
You have techno-junk, cheap, often quite poisonous food,
Yet you are no-more free than a slave. You MUST work ALL the time or your domestic economy or completely collapses.
And that is not slavery?
Really?
As a generality, Britian is a rentier economy. It has a dreadful housing stock, and as with all other aspects of British life, the grotesque price of all goods and services is a consequence of pitiful capitalisation, not infrequently sweated-labour hours and generalised, accelerating impoverishment.
Yet you all deny the reality.
Why? Can it simply be ignorance? No, something else is going on.
Where did you "egrimate" to?
@@tcm81 lovely places, with sane societies. No names, no pack drill.
@@terencefield3204 you are living there illegally?
@@tcm81 Why make that assumption. Just because he doesn't want to say?
@@davidcolin6519 No names, no pack drill, means if you don't give out names, they can't punish you. I read that as implying he was there illegally, or otherwise up to no good.
I think the video shoukd have also talked about the structural deficit in new houses and that it might be hard for a crash to happen as demand is high and supply limited.
As a younger person whose heading to 40 I see no chance of buying a house now. Or breaking myself through work to buy 1. rather do what another had said buy cheap abroad and jump ship, would probably be more peaceful
One consideration not mentioned for the oldest home owners is the assumption that it will be an inheritance, when the welfare state has been destroyed, and the equity from their homes will be soaked up by care costs.
As someone who has been homeless and has never owned a house. Renting is the ponzi scheme, a house is purchased to be used, not as an investment. That's what has f*cked up the economy.
It's called a loss leader. Just having your home enables other opportunities to open up to you.
You don't buy a pen or laptop because you can sell it for higher later on, you buy it to enable you to do other stuff that will better your life, as well as simply having the security of being responsible for your own home rather than a landlord deciding they want to sell before the market drops or have a family member they want to rent it to instead or any other reason you could find yourself being removed.
Not too mention the equity you can release from it if you ever need it.
Welcome to the planet. The other animals will exploit you. Find a way not to stoop to their level. Be human. Enjoy your stay.
My pops always said you can never lose in property. However, back in his day his house cost 40k. That property is now worth 280k after 30 years. I can’t imagine the same percentage return if i invest in property now. A 200k property won’t rise to 1.4m in 30 years
so true, Dont buy property. Who needs property. buy shares instead and try to beat the trading algorithms the large investors. Its easy. Share certificate are very useful, you can roll them up and use as pillows when you are sleeping outside because you have no property.
@@sal78sal you don’t live in investment properties either. So your point is invalid
@@danb7856 Yes but if the value of your investment falls dramatically, you still have a place to live. or rent out. Not so with shares or other types of investment.
@@sal78sal Then you end up in negative equity paying 3/4x a mortgage of what its worth. Unless you sell. Most lenders don’t allow you to live in your own buy to let anyway
@@danb7856 Thats a good point. You might be in negative equity but your are at least getting rent for them. And an ever increasing rent. The world over, be it Pakistan or London, people are paying about a third of their salary on rent. Thats a lot of money just for a place to live. So have a few such places is a very good investment indeed.