PART 1: Where will the ACC Schools End UP? FSU | Clemson | Miami | ACC | B1G | SEC | Realignment
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- Опубликовано: 11 мар 2024
- WildUte of the College Football Mafia joins us to discuss the likely new homes for each of the ACC schools' if/when the ACC implodes. In part one of this series, we discuss Florida State, Clemson, and Miami.
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Where do you think FSU, Clemson, and Miami will end up?
Hopefully SEC but anywhere better than ACC
Not in the SEC
FSU Alumni/Boosters mostly want Big10.
In the ACC.
Not in the ACC or SEC
You can’t say Clemson feels like an SEC school but not FSU. If Clemson goes SEC there partner would probably be FSU
It’s bc Clemson isn’t really a fit in the Big10 more than FSU isn’t a fit in the SEC. FSU would be coveted for either Big10 or SEC, whereas Clemson is more of just a fit in the SEC.
FSU isn’t going to the SEC. They’ve moved their focus to the AAU and academics. They’ve already rejected an invite years ago because of the SEC grind. They’re wisely choosing an easier path once again.
@@jansonroberts2616oh I got it. I just saying that the SEC would desire FSU, not necessarily that FSU would choose to go there. It’s pretty obviously that FSU is locked into the Big10 based on everyone reputable that covers the team.
Agreed. FSU is an obvious fit in the SEC, but they are focused on the Big 10.
I’m a few years teams will be complaining about being in a conference that is too big and they aren’t getting to play their primary rivals.
Conferences are way too big. It's ridiculous.
Interesting way to put some science around total subjectivity
Haha, thanks. Very little actual science, but it was a way to visualize our gut feelings on it.
Take the emotion out of it and use your business acumen. Why would the SEC take another school within 2 hours of Atlanta. 10 years ago, Clemson was a doormat.
Use this as a test for your school. Imagine they win 2 championships then go 4-8 for 5 years straight. Are they still a major brand or relevant? If not, they aren’t P2 worthy. If Clemson, goes a few years with a bad record, will they still be wanted by P2?
FSU, in addition isn’t needed by either. There are school presidents that would vote against them in the BIG for not being AAU. Coaches don’t vote, Presidents do. The SEC doesn’t need them because of UF. They have the major player in Florida. If anything, they could go after Miami. Different market, academics, brand.
Let’s not kid ourselves, “feel” isn’t getting you in a conference where money drives decisions. They could care less about what a campus or fans feel like.
SEC could snatch up UNC, UVA and the BIG could possibly take FSU and ND if they agree to come along. If they don’t take FSU, don’t be surprised if it’s Miami and GT….or Colorado. The real question is what if ND stays or joins the ACC? They have friends there now.
Great point on Clemson! There's a chance that both the Big 2 pass on them and they end up in the Big 12. If that happens, it'll be too bad realignment didn't happen a few years earlier when they were more relevant.
The big 10 has already told FSU that they have a spot for them!
They must have, otherwise why would they do everything in their power to get out of the ACC.
I don't think all 3 of them will be in the Big Ten. I think 2 of them: Florida State most likely will. Clemson or Miami will be too. The one who doesn't get in between Clemson and Miami could be in the SEC.
Miami has an impossible mountain to climb in regard to the SEC. They’ll be throwing everything they’ve got at trying to gain a B1G invite.
Miami is going to big 10 with Florida state
It's always felt like FSU and Clemson would go together (much like how all the other major realignment moves have gone in pairs lately), but I'm coming around to the idea that Clemson might not go to either of the P2.
Prediction. Utah guy says Utes to the BIG
Surprisingly no. He's much more realistic on Utah's chances of getting in.
I don't see it happening...maybe in five to ten years
Don’t think so unless Utah wins an FB Natty and B1G goes to 24 schools.
FSU going B1G, ND also, FSU obtaining AAU status
Yeah I realized we never even discussed AAU. I think it's less important than we once thought, but can't be overlooked. Good point.
AAU is very important to the Big 10. FSU's application to the AAU has been rejected many times. Florida, Miami and South Florida are AAU members. @@saturdayswarriorbyu
@@saturdayswarriorbyu, I don’t think that AAU membership EVER STOPPED being important to the Big Ten. If you look at the schools they added ( PSU, Nebraska, Rutgers, MD, USC, UCLA, Wash, Oregon), the schools they are rumored to have pursued in the past (UVA, UNC, GT; Stanford & Cal), and the schools they turned down (Texas & Oklahoma as a pair), they have NEVER taken a school with AAU (note: Nebraska had it at the time of admission & only dropped it after admission to the conference)
They are building research facilities right now. FSU is moving in that direction AAU or not. AAU is imminent in my opinion.
@@gnorley, FSU to the AAU may be imminent, but that DOESN’T MEAN the the Big Ten university presidents will view them as equals.
Besides, it’s important that the SEC add FSU & Clemson. They CANNOT let the B1G add FSU, Clemson, Notre Dame, & 3 other of the best ACC brands. If that happens, it’s hard to argue that the SEC is on the same level at the Big Ten with all of those brands in the Big Ten.
When you add the fact that Clemson & FSU are the best cultural fits (low endowment state universities with football first athletic programs) for the SEC, those two moves just make sense to me.
I believe that FSU is pushing talk about going to the Big Ten to raise their leverage with the SEC. If FSU is seen as desperate to get in the SEC, they lose their leverage for a 100% share when they move.
It’s like dating someone else to make the person you actually want to date jealous….
Conference footprint no longer matters for viewers as the conference networks and streaming services are nation wide now. It’s all about the value of the brands matchups and viewership.
The ideal way to go that I see is the B1G and SEC expand to 24 teams each. Then a 3rd best of the rest conference 24 team is created with the left over Big 12, ACC and PAC 2. They would be at 22 teams and have a chance to add in a couple top G5 teams in. That would be ideal for all of those left over schools to get a big TV contract with strong competition.
This may happen, but I think the Big 12 gets raided in the process.
@@saturdayswarriorbyu It doesn’t matter who gets raided exactly. We know the B1G and SEC would get the schools they want from the Big 12, ACC and PAC 2. It would just be a wise choice for the left overs to band together for the stronger competition, larger footprint, and viewership. It is a lot more appealing for network to offer the conference of left overs a good contract and payout with 11-12 matchups of decent brands on weekends of in conference play. This would be the best way for schools like Wake Forest, BC, and Syracuse to get a deserving thanks for playing with the Florida State, Clemson, UNC type of universities that move up to the top 2 conferences. They get the life raft to not be in an ACC that just becomes another G5 conference if they don’t blend with one. I get that you don’t want to see the Big 12 become the B tier Super Conference, but that wouldn’t just be a survival move that would be a successful move for every power 5 school to get payout they deserve and play at a competition level they deserve. No doubt a super sized conference of leftover power 5 schools could still land some punches on the B1G and SEC from time to time.
For what purpose such a large, wide and diverse Tier 2 conference? Diluting the rivalries and increasing travel would likely net negative over smaller regionals.
Hope to the Big . SEC has dealt under the table for entitled Alabama to get a play off game. The BIG 10 pays a little more. Miami & FSU will play every year regardless.
.
You got the B1G for who -FSU?
LOL, under the table? Really?
@@jansonroberts2616 Really , and the lost in the playoffs after stealing a spot. You can't argue with a fact .
Not true the big 10 pays less because it more schools. Why would fsu want to play washington an oregon. Good luck with travel. I still say fsu clemson nc Virginia to sec
@@trevezford83 Not really any further than Ohio State flying. Northern teams are easy , much easier than SEC.
No one thought OU could be split apart from OSU or CAL from USC.
It happened. So did UW from Wash St and UO from Oreg St.
If anything has been learned from realignment legislation will not stop anything.
If it comes down to a Big 10 or SEC invite for one school or being forced to the Big XII because of legislative ties you know they will allow the split.
And truthfully none of the four teams are above the Big XII. NC is the best of the four and they are on the same level as KU
I do think they'll ultimately split. It's just going to be a pain to do it. But too much money and the future of the programs is on the line.
You also realize that the ACC will drop contracts as soon as FSU leaves for the B10.
Miami to stay in the crap boat left in the ACC? Not!
Miami may not have a choice. They aren’t valuable honestly. No champs since big East, no stadium, can’t want the acc ever, fans suck it’s bad for them
@@jenifersantinole Ignorant statement. If you think a school's value is defined by recent football success, you have no clue.
@@jakenunya1587 Well, let me tell you what I do have a clue about…….Miami voted for the expansion of the ACC over the objections of FSU, Clemson and UNC. And they voted for the ACC to file suit against FSU to prevent them from leaving. So, one could quite reasonably expect Miami to stay in the ACC. You can’t oppose a fellow member’s desire to leave and then say “wait for me”. I have zero respect for them. F**king losers.
@@jenifersantinole Miami was one of the schools that voted for the ACC to take action against fellow member FSU. Where else did the ACC get 10 votes? I challenge any Miami fans to prove me wrong.
IF it comes apart, or waters down to a much reduced contract, Miami could find the B12 a step up. That would be enhanced if a few other schools also make that jump. UCF is right up the road. Other ACC schools would be closer than the current fit in the B12. So there are options and variables in this move. ACC will devalue with every team that leaves. FSU being the biggest one.
I’ve gotta disagree on your take on Clemson not being the same brand as the Seminoles, and I would assume it would be because of probably being a kid in the 90’s and early 2000’s. In Clemson, that’s a brand with 3 natty’s, 27 conference titles, 6 playoff appearances, 50+ bowl appearances, and a school in the Top 15 all time in wins, but to mention the ratings factor where, with the exceptions of this year, going back to 2015 (as far as you can find the numbers) Clemson has pulled better ratings, generally in the top 10 in the country.
I do think both Clemson and FSU got to the Big 10 and with full shares.
And the conferences look at this things too. I'm sure Clemson isn't working this hard to get out of the ACC without some reassurance they'll find a better home.
~11:30 CLEMSON is ~1% chance to go B1G or BIG12 each.
FSU remains ~10% chance to new BIG12.
I think Clemson's fit with the B1G and their value to the SEC are questionable. I think they have a real chance of falling through the cracks. But I do feel like, with as hard as they're trying to get out, they must have some assurances.
@@saturdayswarriorbyu Recent reporting is that CLEMSON has been allied with UNC for some time. Since FSU's scorched earth tactics have likely killed any SEC lingering interest, CLEMSON's chances improve.
No ACC remainder picks the new BIG12 over a viable ACC rebuild.
I get the feeling you guys know each other...
@@saturdayswarriorbyu 7460 is a proven fool, fraud and troll who changes handles and mass deletes his old posts. His current handle is designed to confuse himself with me, and he constantly misstates my positions out of stupidity or design.
More and more "experts" and others are now predicting an ~48-team total breakaway, which I have been discussing for over 2 years.
7460 is also too stupid to know the difference between an opinion/error and a lie. The earlier provided percentages are clearly personal good faith estimates. I don't fault others for stupidity; I do fault for fraud and trolling.
One part you guys are missing is Notre Dame …. B1G will take teams in pairs … If the B1G takes FSU & Clemson, then I can promise you they will grab Miami with Notre Dame … the Miami - Notre Dame rivalry was very huge & the NCAA played a part to cool it down because it was getting to big of a rivalry for both schools
I agree with this. I think being a ND rival bodes well for Miami. Pretty soon all of ND's major rivals will be in the Big 10.
The chance of CLEMSON ending in the B1G is next to zero. Adjust predictions accordingly.
I think clemson fsu nc an virginia go to sec. Remember vegas put out odds a few years ago saying fsu is favored to be the next team to join sec
It's certainly plausible, but I still lean toward them going to the Big 10.
Don’t rule out ND to the SEC, rumors whispering.
Shhh, it’s a secret.
Really? The rumors I am hearing is that they are about to join the CFL.
Lmao
I can only imagine the Big 10's reaction if they do 😂
Maybe WSU and Ore St join as well
Yeah, I think they'd definitely at least be in the conversation for a rebuilt ACC.
When are you going to post part 2? I don't see it...
I'll get it up this afternoon. It looks like it'll be 4 parts in total.
There will be 3 more videos where we cover all the ACC schools.
I can’t see Clemson going to the BigTen.. it is not an AAU school.. same for FSU.
UMass, Sam Houston State, and Akron to the SEC. Heard it here first,
😂
At this point, why are some still considering an FSU move to the SEC? It’s never going to happen.
The SEC may try to protect its backyard, but that could just be fan speculation.
If FSU comes in at 100 percent conference payout, that would be a problem.
Why?
No team added before the next media deal won't get more than a half share, except maybe Notre Dame, but even they aren't a lock to get a full share.
@@troywest7045. ND is the only named school in the B1G media deal.
@@troywest7045 Are you for real? FSU would get exactly the same deal as newcomers USC and UCLA got, full share. FSU generates more revenue than over half of the B1G schools do. And Fox desperately wants to have an entree into the 3rd largest state in the country.
It depends. FSU is obviously desperate to get into one of the big 2 and may not get an invite from the SEC. They won't be negotiating from a position of power. So it's not about what they deserve.
FSU + UNC to the B1G... because it's the helmet sticker conference
What's funny is that's a realistic a scenario as any.
I don't think you guys understand the SEC. Similar to the BYU/Utah rivalry, in the SEC almost every conference matchup is a big rivalry. As an LSU fan our rivals are Miss, Miss State, Arkansas, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, and A&M and soon to add Texas. SEC fans like to travel but don't want to travel too far (drive vs fly). Because FSU and Clemson have similar fan bases, the best landing spot for FSU and Clemson is the SEC. For sure getting big teams from the south would be highly desirable from the BIG, but I think the more likely candidate for the BIG is Miami, GT, and ND. I think the North Carolina and Virginia schools are interesting but NC is the only real draw from that group. I guess Vir would be the most valuable unclaimed team after that. The rest are hoping for a B12 invite. I like Pitt, Louisville, NC State, Duke, GT, and Miami to the B12.
FSU and Clemson make the most sense in the SEC, but very little about realignment makes sense anymore. I do like that the SEC states at least boarder. I do think they'd like to expand their footprint.
Why are you taking a dump on Miami? You must be pretty young and don't know better, or you have a very short memory. Come on, man. Before there was Nick Saban's Alabama, there was Miami. We won 5 national championships in the last 40 years, and played for 9. That's right, Miami has appeared in nearly a quarter of all the national championship games in the last 40 years and you think they end up in the big 12? Haven't you ever heard of Jimmy Johnson? Yeah that was a few years ago but these things come and go in cycles. Also, give me a break about rivalries. You don't think Miami - FSU and Miami - Florida Gators are big rivalries? Miami's rivalry with Florida is bigger than LSU's for obvious reasons, just ask anyone in Gainsville.
I just want to sit by and laugh at FSU when they struggle in the big ten ( could very well happen once Texas, Bama, UGA, OU, better coached UF, and Ohio St plants a flag in their recruiting region) and their traveling fans closest conference partner is in the state of Ohio 😂… they’ll be begging the Big 12 for membership within a decade..
@@ronelite582 LMFAO! FSU filled up the Big House in 1991 before FSU even won a title. FSU fans are all over the country.
Everyone already recruits FL. Ohio State, Texas, Bama, etc.
FSU isn't going to be begging to join the Big 12. You're thinking of Duke. But a mistake someone like you would make.
@@ronelite582 A school that has more top 10 finishes than all but two schools in the B1G would struggle? Really? A team that has finished in the top ten the past two years would struggle against Rutgers, Maryland, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan State, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, USC, UCLA and Northwestern? Their only real competition would be Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Oregon and Washington and they could hold their own against them. Penn State is 1-12 against top ten teams under Franklin. Washington was 4-8 before DeBoer and may fade again now that he is gone. Michigan may not sustain itself now that Harbaugh is gone. You need to know more about college football before posting.
There's no restructured ACC that's happening. Those top 3 will be gone when they get free. After that, there's no combination that gets any relevant money for the ACC.
So what, they all go to the American?
There’s no relevant money now. Hence the top schools leaving.
@saturdayswarriorbyu I'm not sure at this point. But with the B1G and SEC taking huge portions and the Big 12 probably getting a bigger cut with a depleted ACC. A depleted ACC will have a difficult time getting schools that will get more tv money. It'll be tough.
Then the BIG12 is already at non-relevant money. If the ACC "only" lost 3, it should easily survive as a peer Tier 2.
Here's the problem with all of this. The B1G got a huge contract without FSU...the ACC got a bad deal with FSU....why would the B1G need FSU. The same holds true for all the other teams in the ACC. The B1G and the SEC secured their huge contracts without those teams. Why would they need them now? They don't.
For an even bigger contract DUH!!!
They may decide they don't need to grow anymore, but I think there's still a lot of money to be gained, and FSU brings you a big brand in a big state that happens to be in the heart of your top rival's territory.
SEC maybe doesn't, but the B1G absolutely does. Because there is no chance this ends with a P2. The conference realignment movie ends like Highlander - there can be only one. Eventually, the SEC and B1G will pick each other's teams off to form one mega conference, one sole survivor. And as it stands, the SEC has far better brands than the B1G. The only way the B1G comes anywhere close to the SEC in terms of brands under its umbrella is if it makes a clean sweep and adds all of Notre Dame, Miami, FSU, UNC, and Clemson.
If the B1G sits pat and does nothing, then the SEC eventually will be coming for Ohio State, Michigan, USC, Penn State. That's why the B1G has to expand.... to survive.
@@TallyHo850 By bringing in teams that couldn't command a bigger contract with the ACC? Get real. Those teams have proven their worth with the ACC contract. Duh? Yea...you are thinking as a duh.
@@saturdayswarriorbyu There is no more money to be gained until at least 2030. That's 5 years from now. FSU has screwed the pooch. The SEC nor the B1G need to add anyone now. Those ACC schools don't command enough to bring them in as a full share....even a half share would probably be off the table. Why would either add a team until the new contracts have expired?
Big 10 doesn’t want the Hurricanes
You want to bet? Because having a spot in South FL to (1) feature your teams, (2) broadcast on Orlando, Ft Lauderdale, Miami, & Tamps tv markets, and (3) gain inroads into recruiting South FL players for all of the existing B1G teams sounds REALLY good to this B1G fan.., The B1G LOVES to add brand name sports programs w/ AAU membership that are in premiere tv markets. Every school they have added checks at least 2 of those boxes and the U checks ALL THREE…
I actually think the Big 10 probably wants them more than the SEC.
20:26: I don’t see FSU and Miami going to the same conference and I think the Big Ten will value FSU more than the SEC will, so it’s FSU to the Big Ten and Miami to the SEC. I don’t think Clemson controls their own fate because the real fight is going to be over UNC; I’m 50%-50% Big Ten-SEC for UNC and Clemson unless NC State has to go with UNC (then it’s 80% Clemson to the Big Ten and 0% UNC/NC State to the Big Ten). The Big Ten doesn’t have much room to expand and I don’t think the SEC needs to match the Big Ten move for move by adding schools that don’t make sense for the SEC.
I think the Big Ten would prefer Miami over FSU
@@user-vp1uw3qc4cThat’s fair. I think this is a case of FSU being less valued to the SEC compared to how much the Big Ten would value getting into Florida. Miami, meanwhile, is a different part of the Florida market than the SEC really exists in.
@@user-vp1uw3qc4cplease don’t think it shows the size of your brain 😂😂😂😂Miami doesn’t even have a stadium an did you hear there not even having a official spring game so stop thinking 😂😂😂
I go back and forth a which the B1G would rather have (that is if they don't want both). From what I've heard, the SEC isn't interested in Miami, but they should be. FSU feels more like a B1G team, but Miami is already AAU, in a market with a lot of B1G alum, and is another ND rival. But if the B1G goes with FSU, and the SEC passes on Miami, could they land in the Big 12?
@@saturdayswarriorbyu I think they both end up in the same conference, because the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. The rivalry game for one, and also, whichever conference controls two of the big three (Florida, FSU, Miami) controls the state of Florida. Say the B1G took only one of Miami or FSU, then I would argue that Florida is still an SEC state because you have one, we have one, and the one we have is the flagship.
FSU to B1G
Why you wanna beat up on IU, Purdue, Northwestern, ILLINOIS, Iowa , Minnesota, and Nebraska , FSU Are not even have a conference rivals , unless you counting on Maryland to be something, Big 10 is good for hockey but for football the money is SEC with better competition
4 letter word why not SEC: ESPN
@@wendykozdras5471 This is a family friendly site. There is no call to be using four-letter words here.
I think it's the most likely. Doesn't seem like SEC wants them.
Clemson is Nebraska 2.0. They don't have a natural recruiting ground (Atlanta is 120 miles / 2 hours away) and will struggle to remain relevant and consistent - we started seeing the cracks in the program the past two years. I hope the B1G passes on Clemson.
It's crazy to think both of the Big 2 could pass on them, but it's in the realm of possibility. But they're trying pretty hard to get out, so I would think they must have a pretty good sense of their chances of getting in.
@@saturdayswarriorbyu I think it would be interesting if y'all did an episode of three of the most likely scenarios of where teams could end up / what each conference could look like relative to each other. E.g., Scenario 1: the Big Ten adds FSU and Miami, the SEC adds Clemson and UVA, and the Big 12 adds Louisville and Pitt, etc.
FSU and Clemson should be in the SEC. Too bad we live in clown world now.
We have to accept that realignment doesn't make sense anymore.
Yall are so biased .. unquestionable !!!
Everyone is biased. What's your issue that we think schools will end up going to the Big 12. People said the same thing about the 4 corner schools.
You guys are clueless.
Please enlighten us.
I don't agree that the Big XII wants FSU - that would be a 5% chance to the Big XII only if all other options fall through. Legacy Big XII fans look at FSU as another Texas and nobody wants that drama from a prima donna. Frankly, FSU can kick rocks. Agree with landing spots for Clemson and Miami. Clemson is the only school that might be a cultural fit with the Big XII with their ag background and rural feel, but think ultimately they land in the SEC. Most people don't know that Clemson is out in the sticks near the Georgia border and the closest major city is almost an hour away in Greenville.
Maybe they don't want FSU, but I can't imagine they would pass on them. But I don't think we'll ever find out, because I think they end up at one of the other 2.
Notwithstanding FSU poison, the BIG12 has no bigger football brands. I can't imagine the BIG12 not taking the risk.
Leave Miami right where they are in the ACC. They deserve the ACC and everything that comes with it. Hell they never won an ACC Championship since entering the ACC......yeah I get Championships🥱....last once well over 20 years ago
If one of the Big 2 shiny take Miami, I can't see the Big 12 passing on them if they have the chance.
One could argue that MIAMI is the primary cause of the ACC's current situation. It demanded CUSE/BC, which resulted in VATECH/PITT as well. MIAMI immediately started ti decline, and none of the former BIGEAST schools have performed to any reasonable expectation as things stand.
Nevertheless, MIAMI must ignore that going forward.