Tom Narayan, Lead Autos Analyst at RBC Capital Markets, and Craig Irwin, Senior Research Analyst at Roth MKM, debate the bull and bear cases for Tesla.
Actually Tesla does have multiple things that Toyota does not and one of those things would be a healthy amount of cash/debt ratio. However Toyota does also have something that Tesla does not and that's $130B debt.
“They don’t really have anything that Toyota doesn’t” Hmmm, how about one of the largest supercomputers in the world, a leading real world end to end nueral network, a large scale data engine from their fleet, monopoly over supercharging in North America while charging a +30 percent to all non teslas for recharging, and energy storage business growing 125 percent per year, bigger margins than the auto market and possibly bigger overall in the future, robotics company with a manufacturing and potentially ai moat, another growth wave from next generation vehicle on 2026…..
If Crag takes time machine to 2000 he would say " Apple is a phone company ! it doesnt deserve more than 5b valuation. Apple doesn't have anything Nokia has !!"
@@TheTruthiest You’ll be able to try it for free, (if you have a Tesla of course) there’s also people uploading videos all the time of fsd v12.3 it is amazing
@@TheTruthiest Musk/Tesla have been slightly arrogant with the name "FSD" but in the end of the day the same could have been said about "NACS" and look how that ended. Teslas charging infrastructure is THE North American charging standard now. The same will happen with FSD eventually. It's not if it'll happen but when.
Craig Irwin doesn't understand how FSD works. His whole take that FSD uses too much energy is complete garbage. Tesla is not compute constraint for AI data training and once the software is pushed to the cars it uses very minimal energy from the car. It's not like the car is connected with 4G to a datacenter or anything like that. Him mentioning Toyota and Boston Robotics is like him being stuck in 2014. Boston Robotics will fall behind other Robotic companies like Tesla and Figure because of lack of AI knowledge. Boston Robotics hard coded all the software but that is not the future. The future is AI training not 100.000 lines of code. Also they still use hydraulic actuators and I think that electric actuators are the future. Too bad for Irwin that he can't used the Apple Car card anymore. In the last years he always referenced that Apple would smoke Tesla but he can't push this anymore because there will not be an Apple Car.
This pretty much validates the field I should have pursued…. 2 so called experts, that make too much money, with opposite predictions on an amazing company that WSJ and big auto industry has hated for years, that are supposed to help guide investors…
That was actually a good debate, thanks for not inviting Gordon “I shout at the other person” Johnson again. Craig is the clear winner for me as he uses facts whereas Tom is just counting small businesses (as pointed out by Craig) like Energy (which can become a larger part of the profit in 2025/2026), FSD (take rate is 14% in NA, it’s still Beta and far from ready on L4/L5 level as Craig pointed out). There’s also no such thing as L2+, the definitions are clear and it’s a L2. Also note that Tom isn’t saying the truth because Nvidia has it’s Pilot system which is used by many large car makers (Mercedes, BYD, XPeng, Kia, Hyundai, Lotus, Jaguar, Iveco, Cruise, Li Auto, Zeekr, Great Wall Motor, Rimac, Nio, Lucid and some others, look it up on Nvidia’s website) that does those lane changes (BMW does these lane changes automatically even when you look at the mirrors) and exits.
4:34 he is wrong, mishaps don't happen on small roads. I've seen YT videos of Teslas going through stop signs and sheer luck that they didn't hit any one and others where it has swerved towards traffic. They aren't small roads and the driver has to take over suddenly. How many of those experiences do you want before you decide a human is better behind the wheel? I'd say 2.
lvl4 will consume as much energy as the electric motor? he should be talking about those dumb sensory suite cluster Fs. where did he pull this from? use fsd everyday. energy usage for fsd is marginal. tom needs to get on fsd v12. much better on city streets.
I don’t think he understand the way nueral networks work. The electric usage comes from the data center only while training the model, the actual computer running the model in the car locally just pulls normal electricity like any Normal computer chip. Just shows he has no idea how technology even works lol
WHAT TESLA HAS That Toyota doesn't. A global monetized fuel supply monopoly (superchargers). All BEV vehicles. Megapacks, growing faster than their cars and highest margin products, FSD getting better all the time, Optimus bot, Solar panel systems, Semi truck. Dojo AI super computer that will not only service Tesla's need but they can also rent out compute power the same way you and I purchase cloud services. Sales that are actually "growing"! Toyotas sales have been relatively flat the past decade.
The bull case for Tesla is all about software. Tesla cars are tin cans on wheels, junk quality and dropping margins. Car business is a low margin business. And Tesla still has to prove they are not just a car company. I will remain skeptical for now, but will consider buying at $120
what did craig aka 'Archie Bunker' knows about Tesla businesses...? i think the real archie bunker understands more about this best AI company... clueless.
Craig: "Tesla has nothing that Toyota doesn't." Reality: "The world's best-selling car, fat profit margins, OTA updates, Supercharger network, Mega Packs, BEV semis, FSD, giant fleet of cars sucking up real world data about how to drive, 45 second station time in factories, partnership with SpaceX, vertical integration, in-house battery production, rabid fan base,...on and on and on." Me: "The only thing more unhealthy than Craig's Tesla analysis is his appearance."
@@brunoheggli2888Like what? Toyota even publicly praised the model y as a “work of art” and now are following teslas footsteps with giga casting and assembly line process
It’s easy to say dumb s**t like that and get away with it because many people that don’t follow Tesla don’t have a clue. Mainstream media does a better job at misinforming than informing the public.
@@chakmissYou dont understand CEOs from Japan!They would never say anything bad about the competition!They will tak nice smileing and think"Oh the Tesla tech is nice we wont copy it we will improve it a lot make it more reliable and destroy them with the advantage of scale we will have at the perfect time"
@@chakmissLongterm thinking,quality,reliability,not rushing things to much,and not putting all of your eggs in one basket!Thats why Toyota had record numbers after record numbers!
Legacy automakers has shown ZERO ability to make EVs profitably. If you believe EVs are the future (just like iphone was) then its an easy buy. Then you get powerwalls, FSD and Robot for side kick.
This is just the beginning for Legacy auto makers. It took Tesla over 10 years to make a profit and that’s what government subsidies. The legacy auto makers are going to catch up sooner or later Tesla is nothing special.
Craig looks like he just showed up at the studio after an all nighter.
Yeah he looks like Elon but a lot poorer
I noticed these tesla bears always have this, tired guilty look
Actually Tesla does have multiple things that Toyota does not and one of those things would be a healthy amount of cash/debt ratio.
However Toyota does also have something that Tesla does not and that's $130B debt.
“They don’t really have anything that Toyota doesn’t”
Hmmm, how about one of the largest supercomputers in the world, a leading real world end to end nueral network, a large scale data engine from their fleet, monopoly over supercharging in North America while charging a +30 percent to all non teslas for recharging, and energy storage business growing 125 percent per year, bigger margins than the auto market and possibly bigger overall in the future, robotics company with a manufacturing and potentially ai moat, another growth wave from next generation vehicle on 2026…..
probably nothing..
Thank you for letting the people kniw
And coming out with new products that people actually really want like cybertruck and roadster
You’ve really drank the kool-aid!
@@maxpayne7419 instead of saying that, how about actually refuting my points. Otherwise you are just drinking the negative sentiment kool aid
If Crag takes time machine to 2000 he would say " Apple is a phone company ! it doesnt deserve more than 5b valuation. Apple doesn't have anything Nokia has !!"
One important word ..
SELL
Supposedly Irwins ranking is #4407 out of 4527 analysts, take from that what you will
Funny how Tesla went from a car company to a tech company and now back to a car company (with a bunch of competition) .
Media setting up narrative as they want when they want.
FSD can be super scary at times . Especially lane change when exiting freeways at speed.
I want to know what Ulysses and Joshua Graham have to say about this
Great conversation
Tesla has FSD and Toyota?
Tesla has FSD? That's news to me. I'll believe it when I actually see it
@@TheTruthiest You’ll be able to try it for free, (if you have a Tesla of course) there’s also people uploading videos all the time of fsd v12.3 it is amazing
@@TheTruthiest Musk/Tesla have been slightly arrogant with the name "FSD" but in the end of the day the same could have been said about "NACS" and look how that ended. Teslas charging infrastructure is THE North American charging standard now. The same will happen with FSD eventually. It's not if it'll happen but when.
Sales
man Fallout New Vegas lore is so confusing
what is craig's firm paying to get him on cnbc, his track record is remarkably terrible
Buy low sell high.
Buy low=Bearish
Sell High=Too Bullish(maybe).
0:18 “And it was at that moment he knew, he fu%*# up” - Morgan Freeman
Can he see? Blinked 100 times
Is Craig ok, he looks very different to the usual Craig we see. I hope his health is ok.
Craig Irwin doesn't understand how FSD works. His whole take that FSD uses too much energy is complete garbage. Tesla is not compute constraint for AI data training and once the software is pushed to the cars it uses very minimal energy from the car. It's not like the car is connected with 4G to a datacenter or anything like that. Him mentioning Toyota and Boston Robotics is like him being stuck in 2014. Boston Robotics will fall behind other Robotic companies like Tesla and Figure because of lack of AI knowledge. Boston Robotics hard coded all the software but that is not the future. The future is AI training not 100.000 lines of code. Also they still use hydraulic actuators and I think that electric actuators are the future. Too bad for Irwin that he can't used the Apple Car card anymore. In the last years he always referenced that Apple would smoke Tesla but he can't push this anymore because there will not be an Apple Car.
JIM CHANOS! Your time has come to short this thing!
Bring your buddy too
Do Toyota has even one giga factory?
This pretty much validates the field I should have pursued…. 2 so called experts, that make too much money, with opposite predictions on an amazing company that WSJ and big auto industry has hated for years, that are supposed to help guide investors…
Short term down I buy. Meta was down 2022 also sentiment related so see what’s their price now.
META was downright cheap though..
Belive in your fully American company ! EV has just started it takes time to replace 1 billion diesel cars around the world
That was actually a good debate, thanks for not inviting Gordon “I shout at the other person” Johnson again. Craig is the clear winner for me as he uses facts whereas Tom is just counting small businesses (as pointed out by Craig) like Energy (which can become a larger part of the profit in 2025/2026), FSD (take rate is 14% in NA, it’s still Beta and far from ready on L4/L5 level as Craig pointed out). There’s also no such thing as L2+, the definitions are clear and it’s a L2. Also note that Tom isn’t saying the truth because Nvidia has it’s Pilot system which is used by many large car makers (Mercedes, BYD, XPeng, Kia, Hyundai, Lotus, Jaguar, Iveco, Cruise, Li Auto, Zeekr, Great Wall Motor, Rimac, Nio, Lucid and some others, look it up on Nvidia’s website) that does those lane changes (BMW does these lane changes automatically even when you look at the mirrors) and exits.
NOT SURE
Bears never talk about the debt of auto companies compared to Tesla. Bears also don't want to talk about Tesla bot.
The debt you Tesla boys talk about is mostly financing, which they make money on.
4:34 he is wrong, mishaps don't happen on small roads. I've seen YT videos of Teslas going through stop signs and sheer luck that they didn't hit any one and others where it has swerved towards traffic. They aren't small roads and the driver has to take over suddenly. How many of those experiences do you want before you decide a human is better behind the wheel? I'd say 2.
Fsd is in a very early phase. Self driving will be 100 times better than reckless drivers in a few years.
Which version of FSD? That’s like saying I saw a Ford Pinto explode one time, so their 2024 F150 is trash.
Craig is credible.
lvl4 will consume as much energy as the electric motor? he should be talking about those dumb sensory suite cluster Fs. where did he pull this from? use fsd everyday. energy usage for fsd is marginal. tom needs to get on fsd v12. much better on city streets.
I don’t think he understand the way nueral networks work. The electric usage comes from the data center only while training the model, the actual computer running the model in the car locally just pulls normal electricity like any Normal computer chip. Just shows he has no idea how technology even works lol
Craig guy sounds as confident as his hair style
The bear lost me when he said that Boston dynamics is the humanoid robot winner 😂
the bear guy is right
Craig always say Tesla does not have what Toyota have
Yeah it's a bit tired like the egregiously overvalued phrase. Craig is a luddite who doesn't understand the Tesla business.
WHAT TESLA HAS That Toyota doesn't. A global monetized fuel supply monopoly (superchargers). All BEV vehicles. Megapacks, growing faster than their cars and highest margin products, FSD getting better all the time, Optimus bot, Solar panel systems, Semi truck. Dojo AI super computer that will not only service Tesla's need but they can also rent out compute power the same way you and I purchase cloud services. Sales that are actually "growing"! Toyotas sales have been relatively flat the past decade.
Telsa Bull just got kicked in the nuts. Its not a car company. What planet is this guy on. Do not assume these analysts are smart.
If Tesla doesn't have anything that toyota doesn't have, than why isn't toyota selling 1.8 million Electic cars, like Tesla.
Bears are looking sick. It's time for the Bulls.
Nah the bears have made a killing and will again after this short rise
@@angrybrit129 Ask Jim Chanos how has that worked out 😂
@@chakmiss they always losers but if you been shorting Tesla regularly you up well on ya money
Craig shorting Tesla since last 10 years.......
BITCOIN
The bull case for Tesla is all about software. Tesla cars are tin cans on wheels, junk quality and dropping margins.
Car business is a low margin business. And Tesla still has to prove they are not just a car company.
I will remain skeptical for now, but will consider buying at $120
Junk quality ??? do some research into the cars at least the Model Y won numerous awards for its safety alone
Boston Dynamics lolz
"fsd wont work beacouse the car consume too much energy " this is all his bearish thesis on autonomy , 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
what did craig aka 'Archie Bunker' knows about Tesla businesses...?
i think the real archie bunker understands more about this best AI company... clueless.
He compared Tesla to Toyota. 😂
Another dinosaur spotted.
Craig Irwin is about as nonsensical as they come.
Ha Craig is just a old act / same words for 10 years
This man has no idea what he is talking about
Craig: "Tesla has nothing that Toyota doesn't."
Reality: "The world's best-selling car, fat profit margins, OTA updates, Supercharger network, Mega Packs, BEV semis, FSD, giant fleet of cars sucking up real world data about how to drive, 45 second station time in factories, partnership with SpaceX, vertical integration, in-house battery production, rabid fan base,...on and on and on."
Me: "The only thing more unhealthy than Craig's Tesla analysis is his appearance."
Don't forget basicaly zero debt versus the most indebted company on planet earth..also the leader in robotics in reality. Craig LOL
Bear, “If they don’t miss, it changes nothing fundamentally”. 😂🤡
Well they did miss so there ya go.
@@gambee_ I haven’t sold so no miss here! Buy low sell high is the name of the game didnt you learn that already 🤣🤌🏼
@@gambee_ what happened 🤣🤣🤣🤷🏼♂️
It’s overvalued, sure, but to say Toyota has same as Tesla is ridiculous. Like wtf is this guy even talking about?
Toyota has better things then Tesla!
@@brunoheggli2888Like what? Toyota even publicly praised the model y as a “work of art” and now are following teslas footsteps with giga casting and assembly line process
It’s easy to say dumb s**t like that and get away with it because many people that don’t follow Tesla don’t have a clue. Mainstream media does a better job at misinforming than informing the public.
@@chakmissYou dont understand CEOs from Japan!They would never say anything bad about the competition!They will tak nice smileing and think"Oh the Tesla tech is nice we wont copy it we will improve it a lot make it more reliable and destroy them with the advantage of scale we will have at the perfect time"
@@chakmissLongterm thinking,quality,reliability,not rushing things to much,and not putting all of your eggs in one basket!Thats why Toyota had record numbers after record numbers!
Legacy automakers has shown ZERO ability to make EVs profitably. If you believe EVs are the future (just like iphone was) then its an easy buy. Then you get powerwalls, FSD and Robot for side kick.
Just get a powerwall from BYD!
@@brunoheggli2888 why not buy US products?
This is just the beginning for Legacy auto makers. It took Tesla over 10 years to make a profit and that’s what government subsidies. The legacy auto makers are going to catch up sooner or later Tesla is nothing special.