How to win 56% of your second serves
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- Опубликовано: 24 мар 2023
- Get "The New Rules Of Singles" here: bit.ly/42OXJMS
The “old rule” of second serves was to hit it at your opponent’s backhand, which makes sense because that’s typically the weaker side…
But new analytics show that winning second serve points comes down to a specific 1-2 punch combination where you aim your weaker second serve at a very unconventional target to set up your next punch…
The one that knocks out your opponent. Do this right and you’ll increase your win percentage on second serves from 44% to 56%... 
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I appreciate the effort put on this. For sure there are many things that can be helpful. I find it more like guidelines than rules, perhaps the word rules make it sound definitive when I don't think it is.
I'm also, as others, conflicted with the use of these statistics, and how it assumes probabilities behind that data. On top of my believe that this can't hold true to lower levels, lets say 3.5 or below, some of the conceps are hard to hold true with this statistics for 4.0, 4.5 players, where I think I belong.
At my level, I can, with overall success, direct the ball in 2nd serve returns of my FH. If opponent keeps on serving second serve to my FH, eventually I'm having a feast, and for sure returns won't go only to their forehand. If they do good kick serve or consistent serve to my BH, I'm definitely in more trouble, I get stressed, etc. There will be others though that are more confident than me with BH. Conversely, if I serve 2nd serve to some opponents to their FH, they'll frie me in the spot. If I keep variety of location in my serves, yes, there are some opponents where serve to the right hand will be more effective, not only because serve plus one but because they are too close the ball, they are stepping back when hitting, etc...
Point is, it will depend on each circumstance. Imagine a scenario where people are overall following these rules. Through time, statistics will change, and thus the probability too.
So net, to me these are great guidelines and insights, solid work in my perspective, though not definitive. Saludos!
if you're winning 75% of first serves you get in 75% of the time, you're better off going for 2 first serves :)
Hey! just to share that the Federer/Nole match you mentioned in this and other videos was 2019, not 2018. Saludos!
Hi thank you for making those wonderful videos and they are very helpful - just wondering as a lefty myself, which playbook/book would you recommend for me to get if I would like to improve my match performance? Reason I am asking as I found a lot of RUclips videos out there usually have very limited context on righty playing against lefties or vice versa... Just wondering if there is one tailored for the lefties Thanks in advance :) Cheers
Ho will , i wrote another comment but it's gone..? Iam a big fan of your channel, it inspired me on my begginins. I wanted to ask you before buying , what about absolute stadistic numbers? , i.e if you win 50 % of 10 forehand points(5 wins) , and 50% of 100 backhand points (50 wins)in a match, relative winning in porcentages need to be explained taking that in account ¿right? How are you considering this to only talk about % in analisis?. I wait for your answer today please for the last day offer.. Thanks
I love the statistics and am interested in these strategies and investing in your product but as a leftie it would be cool to know if you have statistics about specific strategies that arent for right hand vs right hand.
I'm lefty too! In this case, you'd reverse things. Deuce court serves go more T or body backhand to get the return to boomerang to your forehand. Ad court serves wide to the backhand for the same reason. In this case you get the best of both worlds, serving to their weaker shot and having it boomerang back to your stronger shot.
@Fuzzy Yellow Balls Nadal been doing it his whole career. Is nothing new for lefties.
But ur not taking into account that the receiver is surprised at the forehand. Whereas if now most ppl will serve to the forhand, then perhaps serving to the backhand will become more surprising hence yield better results
It's all in the mix. The score may be a factor when hitting a second serve to the FH and God knows the quality of the returner is a factor. There are too many variables for these diagnostics to be applied in a cookie-cutter fashion. Hitting just under half of the second serves to the FH seems to be the detail needed. I am quite sure when novak uses all this stuff it is far more nuanced and detailed than the RUclips videos we are watching in order to promote the book sales
If I’m left handed playing a righty then I presume I still wanna serve at the backhand here?
I don't think this is a good way to use statistics. It doesn't dig deep enough into why they worked. Frequency and timing should factor into why it unfolded. As well as other things.
For example, the risk in changing direction off certain shots from certain positions.
Those are patterns that can work at times and it is probably good to have them in mind. They may be more successful in general than other but each match is a story per-se. Also, clearly if you are always using the same patterns once they become predictable they lose their effectiveness. So, I agree with you the way they are presented is a bit generic and also too hyped.
this data make no sense if the oponent player playes forehand 2 times better than backhand or viceversa ,so u also need to take into consideration if his backhand is better than his forehand then its stupid to serve on that side.
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I think its a matter of what you can do with the ball that would be coming back. It ofcourse does depend on your level and opponents level. Most of the time the ball thats hitting the backhand returner will be hit with a slice. Depending on how high you kick and also how deep the return is. But i get your point there are a lot variables to consider but these %s are general that could be handy in a match situation where you feel like you might want to try something different. Still wouldnt pay for it though
There are just so many variables to consider for a real match. Plus players adjust all the time during the watch. Such stats for me are just nice to know instead of offering insights to alter my tactics.
So if im lefty is the opposite
Good question- not sure these strategies work for lefties.
is this analysis valid for all the levels? You are talking about statistics of Pro players and i have to say top 20 players. What about a Junior, Future or even club player?
This conflicts with the other “new” rule to attack the forehand in the first 4 shots. This rule says the server is more likely to win a return to his forehand??
Same thought. Especially considering that for many non pro second serve can be quite weak
Exactly, that is indeed a contradiction of sorts. I noticed that right away and I have a few other issues regarding all of this. I think they are at least as much about promoting their version without enough admission of and attention to the nuance aggregate.
Context is king. I think these concepts are worth consideration, but truly the real goal is VARIETY. You can't just hit all your 2nd serves to the forehand and expect to win...you'll get killed once they figure it out, if your opponent is any good. As a part of a varied attack, or as shown as maybe 40% of where you hit your 2nd servers, then fine, but you better have the other ones too. Also, realistically considering your own strengths and weaknesses is paramount. Like is your second serve good enough to hit it forehand and not get killed. Or better yet, is YOUR serve to the backhand so good that it draws more errors to do that. Every single match is different. These are concepts to try, based on some other peoples stats, including Novak Djokovich, who is in no way a good approximation of a club player. Both his second serve and his ability to deal with an opponent's return of his second serve to either wing is not equivalent to us hacks at the club level. Try these concepts. See what works. Keep the good, change the bad, and continue to improve elements of your game in addition to attempting conceptual ideas.
Pro tip- only watch minutes 5-10. The rest is just a commercial….
Are these statistics based upon ATP level? I can imagine these percentages would be different at 4,5 5.0? level or is this not the case?
It ABSOLUTELY is different. Comparing ATP level second serves to 3.5, 4.0 second serves is comparing apples to walnuts. I've never been thrilled by this Australian gentleman's use of statistics based on videos of his I've seen since 2019. He often makes apples to oranges comparisons, he makes declarative statements based on extremely surface level analysis of selective slices of data that overemphasize one aspect of a shot while completely avoiding him address other important factors. EG- how many 2nd serves actually result in a serve +1 scenario? How many club players actually attempt a serve+1 vs "just get it in" on their second serves? Does the "serve +1" definition here include aces and return errors? Or is it only considered a "serve +1" if the opponent successfully returns it and then you hit the winner?
Because if it doesn't include aces and return errors, it isn't a true estimation of how effective serving to BH vs FH on the second serve really is. They COULD have included this in the data, but the focus on the exact term "serve+1" makes me skeptical. It may very well be that serving to the FH has the best overall result for 2nd serves for club players, but you can't tell that from the data presented here; all the data (presented here) actually shows is that ATP players from 2019 had a 45% success rate on second serves in serve+1 scenarios by serving out wide to the FH.
Ya that's one of the things Craig looked at, do the numbers hold up at lower levels of play, and yes, they do. There are some differences here and there, but not much. For example, 70% of rallies on the pro tour are 4 shots or less. Even in the 12s, where the serves aren't powerful, 55% of the rallies are still 4 shots or less.
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Yeah does this book work for lefties or do we reverse everything?
Warning this is a scam. I purchased a lifetime access last year and I was not given access to their videos at all and what I emailed and called them countless times without getting a response. They just want to get people’s money.
Hey I’m sorry you’re having trouble accessing the content. If you go to our website, Fuzzy Yellow Balls for com, there’s a chat box where we can get you up and running. Please let me know if that works.
I'm a lefty so non of these apply to me?
It does! Check my other comment about reversing things.