First mover advantage is gone! Competition is coming Elon is the Kim Kardashian of business They don't have enough products They are overvalued Etc. People will make up whatever they want to believe in. EDIT: this was sarcasm. The above points are nonsense. I did once hear the Kim Kardashian comment said by someone who owns a Ford dealership, may his business rest in peace.
For sure, anyone watching this and looking forward stands to do well if they invest. Not doing so is the difference between watching the people on the sailboat and being the people on the sailboat in 10 years.
@@GershonBenYitzhak Please show me who has "drive anywhere" L4 autonomy, never mind L5. Please tell me what the best selling passenger vehicle by unit volume will be in 2023.
Gordon J daniel The competition can't seem to produce significant numbers or make a profit, except for the Chinese EVs. Minor competitors that will never catch up.
I remember finding Tony here on RUclips back in the day. He confirmed what I was thinking with hard facts and graphs. So glad to see that not only was he correct... it came earlier than even he predicted and it's not done yet!
When I was a kid in the early 1960’s, EVERYTHING was brought to the block or delivered to the house. We had the fruit truck, the milk man, the ice cream man, the soda man, the egg man, the knife sharpener truck, the amusement park truck, (e.g. the Whip ride that cost a dime), the soap man, etc. It was an oil based economy when gas/diesel trucks were cheap enough to make economic sense for these businesses on wheels to drive around neighborhoods. I’ve been longing for years to have an AFFORDABLE electric truck business in which I could drive around through neighborhoods all day to deliver my goods and/or services, just like in the old days, but this time with clean energy. Tony, how soon do you see that being possible?
Impossible because people cost too much these days. How much would you have to pay somebody to deliver milk? Even if the transportation was free, no energy, no vehicle maintenance, no milk costs. What would it cost you per delivery?
I’ve lost family to distracted driving. Been watching the progress of autonomous driving for a while now because of the potential for saving lives. Excited for the full potential of this manufacturing movement.
It’s shocking how few actually watch this amazing information. I’m amazed, but it helps me to understand why most of the population is clueless about the inevitable disruption and it’s drivers.
The more I see and hear of Tony Seba's predictions for the future, the more I become convinced he is a time traveller. How else can anyone be so accurate with their view of what is to come??🕛
As I watch this series, you give me so many 'wait...what?' moments, I rewind and replay as I go along (maybe I'm slow), but I absorb more each time. This is so packed full of info and has given me much to think about and understand. I love new insight. Very thought provoking. Well done that man, thanks and all the very best for sharing your gift
This man's vision is giving hope, politics/ politicians will not fix it, I hope Tony is not wrong about food (CO2), transportation and energy. I just finished a book from his thinkTank, "brighter" by Adam Dorr. Fascinating, and again I hope they are rigth!
about 20 years ago, I read a book on the end of oil. The author was floored to see an electric car made in China which was supposed to sell for around $3500 and was going to revolutionize the industry (wonder what happened to it?). If we extrapolate the graph, forget $10,000 I'm waiting for the $5000 by 2030. And if you believe that (especially in this day and age of inflation) you're in for a surprise. At this moment, EVs are still more costly, a large adaptation rate will also increase the demand for lithium (which is up 900 % this year) class 1 nickel, copper. These metals are being used for grid battery storage so the demand is growing even more rapidly. Right now we are dealing with the disruption of the pandemic and the Ukraine war, but the one thing about ev adoption is that the used ev market is not looking good due to battery decline, there are cases of people buying a $14,000 used EV and then finding it needs a new battery for $11k oh and by the way it is not being made anymore. (There are other issues, look up "drive unit failure" on teslas). The previous part 1 there's a graph of the disruption of coal and a dropping curve. But it doesn't say why, other than implying that its the dropping cost of renewables - but in reality coal has been displaced by natural gas which is cheaper and much more efficient in peaking power plants. The self driving stuff is even more fanciful, for fun you can watch the videos of teslas crashing into stopped trucks or swerving to try to hit a passing cyclist until the driver actually has to intervene. Watch the NOVA episode on self-driving cars, and one of the computer vision experts working in the self-driving field (Martial Hebert) does not even want to predict how far away level 5 evs are. It is a long way away.
@arrdvarks33 kidding. Ice lasting 137k? My icev is a 2007 - at 275k, long paid off and still running (minimal maintenance) and btw I have a relative who took a cross country tour in his Tesla but halfway through it died. Something called a drive unit failure. My neighbour who is a service mgr at Tesla said, oh yeah, happens all the time and if not under warranty would cost him $25k. The other thing that is questionable is the used market. Used ice vehicles have a known value, but used evs - its questionable how good the battery is. Plenty of stories of folks buying an old ev needing to replace the battery at a cost of $11k (and sometimes they don't even make it). The thing about evs Tony doesnt mention at all is the high c02 emissions involved in the making of it. Sure it might have less moving parts, but uses a lot of special metals, rare earths, lithium cobals class 1 nickel, copper, chromium. Lithium was up 900% this year, and as demand increases there will be shortages and cost increases. It takes 7-10 years to go get a nickel mine going. Currently evs at 18million worldwide are 1% of the total vehicle fleet of 1.6billion. Which is nothing. Long way to go. It will be lucky to get 10% in 10 years.
Also foretells the death of SUVs. Since you rarely actually need a SUV, people will rarely hire them, and mid size cars will predominate. The same can be said for sports cars. When transportation is a commodity, you will buy based on price not based on hauling capacity, luggage space, or chick-magnet designs. Taxis aren’t sexy and most of them aren’t enormous. Many are of course minivans. Removing the driver will allow for somewhat smaller cars.
All of these Analysis is great. In regards to the gas part I believe it will spike. Gas is currently required not just for cars but to manufacture everything. The natural resources which need to be extracted for this transition also require tools which use large amounts of gas and mines which cause a lot of pollution. Those figures are during Covid which on large scale everyone stopped driving that’s an outlier.
More importantly, housing (imo) Big energy drain. Focal point for Construction energy, Solar, Battery, Comms, Transport, plus societal issues. (Then there's Mars habitat) . Expect a Boxabl type product, (or collaboration)
Thanks for joining the dots between Ukraine and the demise of fossil fuels. Russia is a bit sunlight poor, but there’s always wind. We should be gifting them wind tech.
Look up Amory Lovins Winning The Oil Endgame or Reinventing Fire He Has Talks On RUclips .He Came From The Same School (MIT) and Has Been Talking about these things scince the 80s and Earlier . Amory Not Only Joined Those Dots in 2005 He Layed Out The Solutions "Literally" For What Should Be Done.
F150 lightning with the right hardware in the house is more like 90.000 $. Teslas safety numbers is like comparing apples with Peaches. But othervise very good predictions and presentation.
Very interesting presentation but PLEASE hire someone to make decent slides and/or record this profesionally. The material is worth it and it’ll have a much greater impact!
Les cars on the road being much higher usage as people get used to transport as a service and no longer need individual ownership! All trade vehicles and agricultural will jump at EV power and length of service! Level 4 already approved in some Chinese cities. Maybe current Ukraine War will have huge effects on this direction of human travel??
I think the new trends are great and very well presented here, thank you Tony for carrying the colors for the new way of things to come and that are already here. I have one comment to make though when it comes to the ever-increasing use of AI/tech for art and creative efforts in general, formerly all human, now be-dazzling everyone with the robots doing it. This was sparked by your little aside about the AI painting you did in minutes with the snowcapped peak (I forget from where) in the background of San Fran. Very beautiful but let's not forget what generates aesthetic drive at the root and "what will never be the same again" if all the painters and musicians just bowed out and let the robots do it. I saw a video once of a wooden robot that someone had built to play classical guitar. It played absolutely perfect, every note and it was also...creepy as hell. I tried to imagine a concert hall full of people paying to see that robot sit there and step through all the classical pieces that were programmed into it. I think maybe the robot would have collected a few dents from empty bottles just for fun, unlike and accomplished classical-playing carbon unit. What's next? AI robots admiring AI robots? That has been predicted. So by all means let's go forward with the technology (even if we call it a "Hal 9000") to make life cleaner, cheaper, easier for the remaining carbon units, but let's not forget who is built to do what. After all, by the end of the century, the current carbon unit population will be about 50% of what it is now, so we don't need to worry about building TOO much of all this stuff. Unless the robots want to use it for themselves. Cheers.
🎯 Key Takeaways for quick navigation: 00:05 🚗 *Die Entwicklung der Verkehrsmittelbranche* - Die Kostenkurve für Elektrofahrzeuge und die Vorhersage, dass ein Elektrofahrzeug mit einer Reichweite von über 200 Meilen bis 2025 etwa 10.000 US-Dollar kosten würde. - Der rasche Fortschritt bei Elektrofahrzeugen und die Tatsache, dass sie schneller auf den Markt kommen als erwartet. - Der Übergang zu Elektrofahrzeugen in Flotten und die wirtschaftlichen Vorteile gegenüber herkömmlichen Verbrennungsfahrzeugen. 03:22 🌍 *Die Veränderung der Verkehrslandschaft* - Die steigende Nachfrage nach Elektrofahrzeugen und deren Anteil am Gesamtmarkt. - Die Bedeutung von autonomer Technologie und deren erhebliches Potenzial zur Verbesserung der Verkehrssicherheit. - Die bevorstehende Verlagerung von individuellem Autobesitz zu Transport als Dienstleistung (TaaS) durch autonome, elektrische Flotten. 11:43 💡 *Die Zukunft des Transportwesens* - Die Vision von Transport als Dienstleistung (TaaS) und die erwarteten drastischen Kostensenkungen im Vergleich zum individuellen Autobesitz. - Die Auswirkungen auf die Ölindustrie und die Herausforderungen, die sich aus dem Rückgang der Ölnachfrage ergeben. - Die geopolitischen Implikationen, die sich aus einem rückläufigen Ölmarkt ergeben und die Notwendigkeit einer strategischen Planung für die Zukunft.
Well done. Behind this operates the (observational) law of the learning curve: with every doubling of produced items, the costs (in constant $) will come down with 14%. The second was 14% cheaper then the first. Off course, only the 2 millionth is 14% cheaper then the first millionth. Even Moore's law of IC's "works" because of the (exponential) growth of sales. Chaotic behaviour - big fluctuations - of for instance prices, is just an indication of the coming "crisis" of the transition. Off course, everybody resists this - you can see how politician want to go back to a past that never existed. But funny enough, this just powers the transition. Putin's silly war - in the long run - does more to driving out oil and gas then any plan. As it happens, with every major transition - breaking of rules -, there's war associated with it.
Great presentation as always Tony! Can you please give your thoughts on EVTOL and how they with disrupt transportation, ie EVs, public transportation and commercial aviation?
Yes the idea of the warehouse will change with automatic ai electric cars. Every closet in a home could be distributed storage for the storage of the goods networks.
Mr. Seba, I appreciate your analysis of how individual car ownership will change like this. I am curious if you have looked into how public transportation would change with this? Public transit is so much more efficient at moving people, and if you take all infrastructure (roads, bridges, parking structures) it is much more expensive. I hope you look into how this can factor into the transportation part of your analysis in the future.
One thing: we do not have the road capacity to give people the right to drive these miles, they would be able to drive. My congratulations on the superb work dear Sir.
There will actually be fewer cars on the road because they'll be owned by fleets and each car will be on the road for 16 hours/day instead of 2 hours/day. You can't get 100,000 miles/year without the car being used for 10 hours a day at least.
@@ericdew2021 that reduces parking needs, but not actual road travel space unless we want to start turning our residential streets into through roads. CAS in Tony's prediction could be a solution to the last mile problem where rail transport does the largest portion of the journey. Not everyone would want to take it, but the hybrid model would be able to offer the greatest distances at the lowest prices and highest speeds.
@@markplott4820 the missing factor are walkable cities, where children grom 6 years od age can commute freely on their own. Like in civilized places in Europe.
Hertz pulled a brilliant move. They effectively put themselves in the running for a robotaxi fleet, by having lots of Teslas etc in their rental fleets, not only do they have longer-lasting cars to rent out, and cheaper ones that even Uber drivers can afford- they are robotaxi-prepared, once FSD comes available, they can switch it on and be a robotaxi provider (sorry to all those Uber hertz drivers). Planning ahead, to avoid being dis-intermediated..
That is very interesting! They are also partnering with Palantir to have software to track all their vehicles to be sure that are used to their maximum potential. That would fit in well with the robo taxis.
I can see the transportation infrastructure, and the energy infrastructure changing very clearly. I can see the lab grown meat structure, growing very rapidly a little behind the transportation and energy infrastructure. What is more opaque to me is the material infrastructure. When we look at man-made goods, a huge number of them are made from plastic or paper(cardboard). I’m aware of the MIT printed chitosan experiments that happened in 2019. But I don’t see ongoing work into the broad number of materials that will need to replace those that are currently petroleum (or tree) based. I haven’t seen Tony Seba, or anyone else dive deeply into that. Can anyone point me to a good resource for those materials and the early work on them?
I hate to go against him on TaaS, but while the tech may be there, and customers may quickly get used to riding without a driver, the insurance and regulatory environment will slow things way down. A phase-in process might help insurers and regulators get comfortable with level-4 self-driving (SD) cars for TaaS. Maybe 4 phases: 1. SD cars with safety drivers demonstrate for maybe six months that the car requires essentially no driver interventions in a particular service area. 2. SD car can drive EMPTY to deliver itself to riders - but a licensed and insured driver has to be verified to be in full control of the vehicle when any humans are on board. 3. SD car drives both empty and with passengers, but when there are humans aboard, a licensed driver still has to be in the driver's seat, ready to take control. Any liability of the licensed driver has to be well defined, whether is the driver or the fleet owner or a mix. 4. Full TaaS with SD cars, but a 'remote driver' must be able to immediately take control of the vehicle in unusual circumstances - e.g. pulling over if involved in a minor accident.
Hope it will cover AI and its exponential improvements. How that will effect medicine, health, materials, energy production and storage, advancing abundance for food and clean water for everyone. The near future will be fast and wild.
@@tonyseba Questions for Tony and the team. Will Tesla stop *selling* cars, run them in their own fleet and convert some factories to refurbish vehicles after 20 million x 20 years? (or sooner) . Tesla is building an ecosystem. With that in mind. Tesla *housing* seems logical? (It's a focal point for all they do?)
This hasn’t aged well, even only a year later: EV demand is tanking now that the early adopters all have one and other people are realizing how wildly impractical they are for many use cases (most apartment dwellers, for instance). Vis a vis fleet sales, Hertz just reversed direction on their EV investment, sold off half of them at a loss and fired their CEO for the blunder.
What is the most important issue? Food and water. Modern agriculture is linked with oil 3 ways. 1. Agricultural chemicals made from oil and gas enhance food production x3. 2. Farm machinery is diesel powered. 3. Transport to our local shops is also diesel powered. An oil crisis means a global food crisis.
here in India (we have the world's largest irrigable land), govt is going on war footing for EV tractors, solar off grid pumps for water supply, gas based nitrogen fertilizers, CNG / EV tractors, etc there are millions of e rickshaws (2000 USD 3 wheeled vehicles) which are used to carry upto 1000kg (2200 pounds) to city. Not to forget robust train network (90% electrified) and warehousing.
Here in Europe a normal small EV costs between 27-35k€. For example Opel Corsa 35,5k€. In think in the US its not so different. China its until now the exception.
If the cost of transportation is going that low, doesn’t it mean that the car market will fall from 120M to 30-40M globally or even less in the long term?
When self driving gets good enough, will we need airbags, bumpers, seat belts, etc? How cheap and what range will electric cars achieve when safety systems are replaced by sensors and software ?
They will remain for the foreseeable future. Accidents will reduce exponentially in proportion with the percentage of Autonomous vehicles, combined with intra vehicular communication. Tesla will run its fleet, they won't sell the vehicle (maybe they buy Hertz? 🤔) Very cheap. Range won't matter, the cab will Outrange the passengers and charge faster than they refresh. In extreme cases, you will book a "fast changeover" with a charged vehicle (rare), but the charge rate will be "3-4 hours drive in 10-15 minutes". You won't notice.
He overlooks a few points. Electric cars were driven worldwide by government subsidies, now that these subsidies have been removed, demand is shrinking rapidly. The prices for these piles of rubbish will therefore certainly fall. Apart from the fact that their electro-smog is extremely hazardous to health, they will probably only be a transitional technology to hybrid vehicles with e.g. hydrogen drive, just as the energy-saving lamp was a transitional technology from the light bulb to the LED lamp. I would also like to see the inclusion of inflation-adjusted data in the future. The fall in manufacturing costs was also possible in conjunction with falling commodity prices since the highs of 2011-12. We are currently running a deficit in energy and raw materials due to a lack of investment in the past. If the price curves here are not adjusted for inflation, they will probably look different in the future. I myself is specialise in the energy and commodity markets.
Hi Tony, thanks for the amazing video! Today's most advance chips seems to be hitting the limits of what is physically possible. Other technology, like quantum computing, is good at specific use case. So I guess my question is do you see computing power finally facing a strong noticeable slow down in growth rate? If yes, when will that happen? Thanks!
Typically in these kinds of situation, when the rate of change begins to flatline, a new, far more capable paradigm emerges. You can look at price/effectiveness graphs for different TV technologies for a reference. My guess is photonics will be the next computing paradigm, but we’ll have to wait and see.
Tony Seba amazing as always, love your predictions and agree with everything, I just think your TaaS S curve is overly optimistic.. 90% TaaS in 2030.. maybe in like California.. but no way it happens that fast in most of world.
While his TaaS curve for 2022 was overly optimistic back in 2017, he may still be on the mark for OECD countries by 2030-32. Once the first jurisdiction is approved for TaaS then the dominant fleet operator will flood that market, which will create a huge positive economic benefit for that market (Tony estimates $6000 per family p/a). The demand from all other jurisdictions will be massive, and the problem becomes simply how fast can the fleets scale, remembering that the TaaS fleet only needs to be
@@Gaja9314 No one has a save self driving car to sell right now. And i dont see that coming in the near future. Sebas energy predictions could fail too. In germany the debate for fracking gas and renewal of nuclear power has just started. Billions of dollars are invested in fossil fuels again world wide. Germany is burning more coal, because it has no other choice and still faces at least partial deindustrialisation. Without russian raw materials, energy and a healthy demografic structure ...no Energiewende. Which brings me to the real disruptor.....geopolitics.
I don't see how we will achieve 95% of EVs in 2030, while there are not charging stations enough for solving the "range anxiety" issue. In the most and significant economies of Europe, like Germany, the EVs adoption is still under 3%. While the gas station network grew up together with the cars replacing horses, the EVs are replacing combustion engines cars. In my opinion, the EVs are not a different system. It's just a improvement in efficiency from a older system, the Io combustion engine car. So, there's no time to wait for a charging station network. For the EVs to thrive we need almost to replace gas stations by charging stations at a rhythm fast enough for the quantity of cars we have in the modern world. Unless the technology creates a solution for the source of the energy for the EV. If the EV could generate the energy inside, that it needs to move, then the problem would be solved. I'm imagining this TAaS with 1,6 million Km power train lifetime, with maybe a small nuclear fusion reactor, generating electric energy enough for that range.😅
I think the way of not wanting to throw a brick at your screen is to accept that Tony will be somewhere in the region of 25-50% right… which is OK. He has missed the really big point completely. Autonomous EVs make mass transport solutions like trains and subways redundant and hard to justify from an environmental perspective as the CO2 emissions of an EV per mile are less than a seat in an EV.
![The Great Transformation [Part 3] - The #Disruption of #Energy](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/fsnkPLkf1ao/mqdefault.jpg)
![The Great Transformation [Part 3] - The #Disruption of #Energy](/img/tr.png)
![The Great Transformation [Part 4] - The #Disruption of #Food & #Agriculture](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/g6gZHbfK8Vo/mqdefault.jpg)
Thank You for making this information available to the general public via RUclips.
This should be required viewing for every college campus. Not sure how you can watch this and not want to irresponsibly funnel money into TSLA lol
First mover advantage is gone! Competition is coming
Elon is the Kim Kardashian of business
They don't have enough products
They are overvalued
Etc.
People will make up whatever they want to believe in.
EDIT: this was sarcasm. The above points are nonsense. I did once hear the Kim Kardashian comment said by someone who owns a Ford dealership, may his business rest in peace.
For sure, anyone watching this and looking forward stands to do well if they invest. Not doing so is the difference between watching the people on the sailboat and being the people on the sailboat in 10 years.
@@GershonBenYitzhak Please show me who has "drive anywhere" L4 autonomy, never mind L5.
Please tell me what the best selling passenger vehicle by unit volume will be in 2023.
Gordon J daniel
The competition can't seem to produce significant numbers or make a profit, except for the Chinese EVs. Minor competitors that will never catch up.
Ahmen Dillon.
Oh and I think @daniel Gordon is being sarcastic below. The tesla ship is taking off slowly, make sure you buy some cruise tickets.
Tony the savage: “They don’t care about going green, they care about that GREEN!” 😂
He stole my phrase! 🙁. Been using "There's green in green" for 5+ years! 😉
I remember finding Tony here on RUclips back in the day. He confirmed what I was thinking with hard facts and graphs. So glad to see that not only was he correct... it came earlier than even he predicted and it's not done yet!
It actually just started :)
Tony and Cathy Wood
When I was a kid in the early 1960’s, EVERYTHING was brought to the block or delivered to the house. We had the fruit truck, the milk man, the ice cream man, the soda man, the egg man, the knife sharpener truck, the amusement park truck, (e.g. the Whip ride that cost a dime), the soap man, etc. It was an oil based economy when gas/diesel trucks were cheap enough to make economic sense for these businesses on wheels to drive around neighborhoods. I’ve been longing for years to have an AFFORDABLE electric truck business in which I could drive around through neighborhoods all day to deliver my goods and/or services, just like in the old days, but this time with clean energy. Tony, how soon do you see that being possible?
Impossible because people cost too much these days. How much would you have to pay somebody to deliver milk? Even if the transportation was free, no energy, no vehicle maintenance, no milk costs. What would it cost you per delivery?
I’ve lost family to distracted driving. Been watching the progress of autonomous driving for a while now because of the potential for saving lives. Excited for the full potential of this manufacturing movement.
I was a volunteer fireperson. Our greatest fear was a gasoline tank catching fire. We didn’t carry any foam to put that out.
Awesome Tony. I can’t wait. You rock 🤘🏽Another genius of our generation.
Right on target yet again. Kudos Tony!
It’s shocking how few actually watch this amazing information. I’m amazed, but it helps me to understand why most of the population is clueless about the inevitable disruption and it’s drivers.
Great presentation, thank you big Tony!
The more I see and hear of Tony Seba's predictions for the future, the more I become convinced he is a time traveller. How else can anyone be so accurate with their view of what is to come??🕛
Knowledge plus logic
The only evidence he isn't a time traveler is that he didn't slam money into TSLA in spring 2019😂
Logic. Statistics.
Futurologist cum laude
He was wrong about oil demand
Thanks Tony!
Like ice burgs rolling over. These inevitable things happen faster than we can imagine.
Great analogy.
Awesome. Thanks for your work!
Superb stuff, thank you Tony for bringing us this inspirational view of the wonderful future that is ours to grasp!
Great work and presentation Tony!
Lol already awaiting SMR to make a vid on this. If you read this comment mate, send me some love 😝 but also thank you Tony for this part 2 👌
As I watch this series, you give me so many 'wait...what?' moments, I rewind and replay as I go along (maybe I'm slow), but I absorb more each time. This is so packed full of info and has given me much to think about and understand. I love new insight. Very thought provoking. Well done that man, thanks and all the very best for sharing your gift
Value per minute .... ty Tony you are gorgeous
Tony's predictions give hope for the planet and its other life forms as well as humans.
Tony plus Elon
This man's vision is giving hope, politics/ politicians will not fix it, I hope Tony is not wrong about food (CO2), transportation and energy. I just finished a book from his thinkTank, "brighter" by Adam Dorr. Fascinating, and again I hope they are rigth!
Solving the Money Problem will be jizzing over this content 😂
But Tony is the SOURCE of the info, not just a rehash.
Thank you Tony!
Absolutely fantastic
Outstanding work!!
about 20 years ago, I read a book on the end of oil. The author was floored to see an electric car made in China which was supposed to sell for around $3500 and was going to revolutionize the industry (wonder what happened to it?).
If we extrapolate the graph, forget $10,000 I'm waiting for the $5000 by 2030. And if you believe that (especially in this day and age of inflation) you're in for a surprise. At this moment, EVs are still more costly, a large adaptation rate will also increase the demand for lithium (which is up 900 % this year) class 1 nickel, copper. These metals are being used for grid battery storage so the demand is growing even more rapidly. Right now we are dealing with the disruption of the pandemic and the Ukraine war, but the one thing about ev adoption is that the used ev market is not looking good due to battery decline, there are cases of people buying a $14,000 used EV and then finding it needs a new battery for $11k oh and by the way it is not being made anymore. (There are other issues, look up "drive unit failure" on teslas).
The previous part 1 there's a graph of the disruption of coal and a dropping curve. But it doesn't say why, other than implying that its the dropping cost of renewables - but in reality coal has been displaced by natural gas which is cheaper and much more efficient in peaking power plants.
The self driving stuff is even more fanciful, for fun you can watch the videos of teslas crashing into stopped trucks or swerving to try to hit a passing cyclist until the driver actually has to intervene. Watch the NOVA episode on self-driving cars, and one of the computer vision experts working in the self-driving field (Martial Hebert) does not even want to predict how far away level 5 evs are. It is a long way away.
@arrdvarks33 kidding. Ice lasting 137k? My icev is a 2007 - at 275k, long paid off and still running (minimal maintenance) and btw I have a relative who took a cross country tour in his Tesla but halfway through it died. Something called a drive unit failure. My neighbour who is a service mgr at Tesla said, oh yeah, happens all the time and if not under warranty would cost him $25k.
The other thing that is questionable is the used market. Used ice vehicles have a known value, but used evs - its questionable how good the battery is. Plenty of stories of folks buying an old ev needing to replace the battery at a cost of $11k (and sometimes they don't even make it).
The thing about evs Tony doesnt mention at all is the high c02 emissions involved in the making of it. Sure it might have less moving parts, but uses a lot of special metals, rare earths, lithium cobals class 1 nickel, copper, chromium. Lithium was up 900% this year, and as demand increases there will be shortages and cost increases.
It takes 7-10 years to go get a nickel mine going.
Currently evs at 18million worldwide are 1% of the total vehicle fleet of 1.6billion. Which is nothing. Long way to go. It will be lucky to get 10% in 10 years.
We are looking forward to it
Incredible videos and information 👏 , thank you Tony, great work!.
Thank you for🤔 presentation, good thoughts🤔💭
The master of all transformation!
the one thing you are not predicting is the greed of corporations.
Is it greed or competition there will always be both. If there’s no greed there’s no motivation no competition there’s monopoly
Watching Tony is why I bought TSLA 4 years ago. Thank you Tony!!!
The great thing about these presentations is the context provided. Very nicely done.
Also foretells the death of SUVs. Since you rarely actually need a SUV, people will rarely hire them, and mid size cars will predominate. The same can be said for sports cars. When transportation is a commodity, you will buy based on price not based on hauling capacity, luggage space, or chick-magnet designs. Taxis aren’t sexy and most of them aren’t enormous. Many are of course minivans. Removing the driver will allow for somewhat smaller cars.
maybe 6 to 8 seater EV vehicles would dominate.
All of these Analysis is great. In regards to the gas part I believe it will spike. Gas is currently required not just for cars but to manufacture everything. The natural resources which need to be extracted for this transition also require tools which use large amounts of gas and mines which cause a lot of pollution. Those figures are during Covid which on large scale everyone stopped driving that’s an outlier.
Anyone else just waiting here? Seeing what Big Tony has got to say about transportation?
More importantly, housing (imo)
Big energy drain.
Focal point for Construction energy, Solar, Battery, Comms, Transport, plus societal issues.
(Then there's Mars habitat)
.
Expect a Boxabl type product, (or collaboration)
So happy to see this - please keep this channel active with updates!
BRILLIANT !- Thanks Bro !!!
Thanks for joining the dots between Ukraine and the demise of fossil fuels. Russia is a bit sunlight poor, but there’s always wind. We should be gifting them wind tech.
Look up Amory Lovins Winning The Oil Endgame or Reinventing Fire He Has Talks On RUclips .He Came From The Same School (MIT) and Has Been Talking about these things scince the 80s and Earlier . Amory Not Only Joined Those Dots in 2005 He Layed Out The Solutions "Literally" For What Should Be Done.
F150 lightning with the right hardware in the house is more like 90.000 $. Teslas safety numbers is like comparing apples with Peaches. But othervise very good predictions and presentation.
Fantastic!
Thanks Tony
@054:0 - "They say they care about green. They do care about this green" This is the truth about all clean tech! So well said.
Hi Tony. I have discovered your work via youtube, fascinating stuff. Keep up informing, very valuable for humanity and investing :)
Incredible Insights. Thank you Tony!
Brilliant thinking and presentation
Very interesting presentation but PLEASE hire someone to make decent slides and/or record this profesionally. The material is worth it and it’ll have a much greater impact!
Geely is connected to Volvo (who's producing the Polestar). Am trying to hold off w/ my VW Tiguan 2015 until hopefully I can buy a Geely.
Awesome. Just awesome.
😂 TIME TO GLOAT ,TONY 🤗💚💚💚
Les cars on the road being much higher usage as people get used to transport as a service and no longer need individual ownership! All trade vehicles and agricultural will jump at EV power and length of service! Level 4 already approved in some Chinese cities. Maybe current Ukraine War will have huge effects on this direction of human travel??
@Remodeling with Robert Crabtree Thought that was down to Putin??
I think the new trends are great and very well presented here, thank you Tony for carrying the colors for the new way of things to come and that are already here.
I have one comment to make though when it comes to the ever-increasing use of AI/tech for art and creative efforts in general, formerly all human, now be-dazzling everyone with the robots doing it. This was sparked by your little aside about the AI painting you did in minutes with the snowcapped peak (I forget from where) in the background of San Fran. Very beautiful but let's not forget what generates aesthetic drive at the root and "what will never be the same again" if all the painters and musicians just bowed out and let the robots do it. I saw a video once of a wooden robot that someone had built to play classical guitar. It played absolutely perfect, every note and it was also...creepy as hell. I tried to imagine a concert hall full of people paying to see that robot sit there and step through all the classical pieces that were programmed into it. I think maybe the robot would have collected a few dents from empty bottles just for fun, unlike and accomplished classical-playing carbon unit. What's next? AI robots admiring AI robots? That has been predicted. So by all means let's go forward with the technology (even if we call it a "Hal 9000") to make life cleaner, cheaper, easier for the remaining carbon units, but let's not forget who is built to do what. After all, by the end of the century, the current carbon unit population will be about 50% of what it is now, so we don't need to worry about building TOO much of all this stuff. Unless the robots want to use it for themselves. Cheers.
The market is ONLY disrupted by government intervention.
Tony is the G.O.A.T.
🎯 Key Takeaways for quick navigation:
00:05 🚗 *Die Entwicklung der Verkehrsmittelbranche*
- Die Kostenkurve für Elektrofahrzeuge und die Vorhersage, dass ein Elektrofahrzeug mit einer Reichweite von über 200 Meilen bis 2025 etwa 10.000 US-Dollar kosten würde.
- Der rasche Fortschritt bei Elektrofahrzeugen und die Tatsache, dass sie schneller auf den Markt kommen als erwartet.
- Der Übergang zu Elektrofahrzeugen in Flotten und die wirtschaftlichen Vorteile gegenüber herkömmlichen Verbrennungsfahrzeugen.
03:22 🌍 *Die Veränderung der Verkehrslandschaft*
- Die steigende Nachfrage nach Elektrofahrzeugen und deren Anteil am Gesamtmarkt.
- Die Bedeutung von autonomer Technologie und deren erhebliches Potenzial zur Verbesserung der Verkehrssicherheit.
- Die bevorstehende Verlagerung von individuellem Autobesitz zu Transport als Dienstleistung (TaaS) durch autonome, elektrische Flotten.
11:43 💡 *Die Zukunft des Transportwesens*
- Die Vision von Transport als Dienstleistung (TaaS) und die erwarteten drastischen Kostensenkungen im Vergleich zum individuellen Autobesitz.
- Die Auswirkungen auf die Ölindustrie und die Herausforderungen, die sich aus dem Rückgang der Ölnachfrage ergeben.
- Die geopolitischen Implikationen, die sich aus einem rückläufigen Ölmarkt ergeben und die Notwendigkeit einer strategischen Planung für die Zukunft.
Well done.
Behind this operates the (observational) law of the learning curve: with every doubling of produced items, the costs (in constant $) will come down with 14%. The second was 14% cheaper then the first. Off course, only the 2 millionth is 14% cheaper then the first millionth. Even Moore's law of IC's "works" because of the (exponential) growth of sales.
Chaotic behaviour - big fluctuations - of for instance prices, is just an indication of the coming "crisis" of the transition. Off course, everybody resists this - you can see how politician want to go back to a past that never existed. But funny enough, this just powers the transition.
Putin's silly war - in the long run - does more to driving out oil and gas then any plan. As it happens, with every major transition - breaking of rules -, there's war associated with it.
Surfin the S Curve......
I don't think my next car will be diesel🤔
Great presentation as always Tony! Can you please give your thoughts on EVTOL and how they with disrupt transportation, ie EVs, public transportation and commercial aviation?
Definitely need what Tonys smoking 😂
Yes the idea of the warehouse will change with automatic ai electric cars. Every closet in a home could be distributed storage for the storage of the goods networks.
Mr. Seba, I appreciate your analysis of how individual car ownership will change like this. I am curious if you have looked into how public transportation would change with this? Public transit is so much more efficient at moving people, and if you take all infrastructure (roads, bridges, parking structures) it is much more expensive. I hope you look into how this can factor into the transportation part of your analysis in the future.
One thing: we do not have the road capacity to give people the right to drive these miles, they would be able to drive.
My congratulations on the superb work dear Sir.
There will actually be fewer cars on the road because they'll be owned by fleets and each car will be on the road for 16 hours/day instead of 2 hours/day. You can't get 100,000 miles/year without the car being used for 10 hours a day at least.
@@ericdew2021 that reduces parking needs, but not actual road travel space unless we want to start turning our residential streets into through roads.
CAS in Tony's prediction could be a solution to the last mile problem where rail transport does the largest portion of the journey. Not everyone would want to take it, but the hybrid model would be able to offer the greatest distances at the lowest prices and highest speeds.
@@markplott4820 the missing factor are walkable cities, where children grom 6 years od age can commute freely on their own. Like in civilized places in Europe.
@@markplott4820 The question is; where people are happier. It turn out in the Nederlands children are the happiest, because of the autonomy they have.
5:49 "they care about green, this green 💸"
LOL hahaha.
Yes and Hertz is ordering Evs from Tesla, Gm and Volvo pledging 175000 evs within 5 years
Hertz pulled a brilliant move. They effectively put themselves in the running for a robotaxi fleet, by having lots of Teslas etc in their rental fleets, not only do they have longer-lasting cars to rent out, and cheaper ones that even Uber drivers can afford- they are robotaxi-prepared, once FSD comes available, they can switch it on and be a robotaxi provider (sorry to all those Uber hertz drivers).
Planning ahead, to avoid being dis-intermediated..
That is very interesting! They are also partnering with Palantir to have software to track all their vehicles to be sure that are used to their maximum potential. That would fit in well with the robo taxis.
Another point of having a long lasting car Ev or Ic.. Easier to re-sell, second hand market. And generally cheaper yo maintain.
I can see the transportation infrastructure, and the energy infrastructure changing very clearly. I can see the lab grown meat structure, growing very rapidly a little behind the transportation and energy infrastructure. What is more opaque to me is the material infrastructure. When we look at man-made goods, a huge number of them are made from plastic or paper(cardboard). I’m aware of the MIT printed chitosan experiments that happened in 2019. But I don’t see ongoing work into the broad number of materials that will need to replace those that are currently petroleum (or tree) based. I haven’t seen Tony Seba, or anyone else dive deeply into that. Can anyone point me to a good resource for those materials and the early work on them?
THANK YOU.
Thanks Tony! 🦾🚗
I hate to go against him on TaaS, but while the tech may be there, and customers may quickly get used to riding without a driver, the insurance and regulatory environment will slow things way down. A phase-in process might help insurers and regulators get comfortable with level-4 self-driving (SD) cars for TaaS.
Maybe 4 phases:
1. SD cars with safety drivers demonstrate for maybe six months that the car requires essentially no driver interventions in a particular service area.
2. SD car can drive EMPTY to deliver itself to riders - but a licensed and insured driver has to be verified to be in full control of the vehicle when any humans are on board.
3. SD car drives both empty and with passengers, but when there are humans aboard, a licensed driver still has to be in the driver's seat, ready to take control. Any liability of the licensed driver has to be well defined, whether is the driver or the fleet owner or a mix.
4. Full TaaS with SD cars, but a 'remote driver' must be able to immediately take control of the vehicle in unusual circumstances - e.g. pulling over if involved in a minor accident.
Okay, that was interesting! Will there be part 3?
Yes. Part 3 is coming over the next few days. Keep an eye on the channel. [EJ]
@@tonyseba Thank you, I really appreciate that!
Hope it will cover AI and its exponential improvements. How that will effect medicine, health, materials, energy production and storage, advancing abundance for food and clean water for everyone.
The near future will be fast and wild.
@@tonyseba amazing already 10k Tata Tiago ev in India , sold out on day 1
@@tonyseba
Questions for Tony and the team.
Will Tesla stop *selling* cars, run them in their own fleet and convert some factories to refurbish vehicles after 20 million x 20 years? (or sooner)
.
Tesla is building an ecosystem.
With that in mind. Tesla *housing* seems logical? (It's a focal point for all they do?)
How effectively can politics slow the transition in the US?
This hasn’t aged well, even only a year later: EV demand is tanking now that the early adopters all have one and other people are realizing how wildly impractical they are for many use cases (most apartment dwellers, for instance).
Vis a vis fleet sales, Hertz just reversed direction on their EV investment, sold off half of them at a loss and fired their CEO for the blunder.
What is the most important issue?
Food and water.
Modern agriculture is linked with oil 3 ways.
1. Agricultural chemicals made from oil and gas enhance food production x3.
2. Farm machinery is diesel powered.
3. Transport to our local shops is also diesel powered.
An oil crisis means a global food crisis.
here in India (we have the world's largest irrigable land), govt is going on war footing for EV tractors, solar off grid pumps for water supply, gas based nitrogen fertilizers, CNG / EV tractors, etc
there are millions of e rickshaws (2000 USD 3 wheeled vehicles) which are used to carry upto 1000kg (2200 pounds) to city.
Not to forget robust train network (90% electrified) and warehousing.
I've used Times Car Share in Tokyo, which I book through my iPhone.
Chinese prices though... in Europe there's no car below € 37k with > 320 km range.
16:30 Tony with all due respect, in 2020 there was the pandemic so naturally there would be a sharp decline
Here in Europe a normal small EV costs between 27-35k€. For example Opel Corsa 35,5k€. In think in the US its not so different. China its until now the exception.
Is there a part 3?
But no flying cars.. by this logic they would be here🤔
Double exponential is just exponential again.
Check the Bloomberg report about Oil displacement of 2- and 3-wheelers!
Hundred of billions combustion 2-wheelers are still on the roads worldwide!
and they are getting phased out based of purely economic reasons as well. I can buy a fancy 1500 USD electric 2W with touch screen here in India.
If the cost of transportation is going that low, doesn’t it mean that the car market will fall from 120M to 30-40M globally or even less in the long term?
When self driving gets good enough, will we need airbags, bumpers, seat belts, etc? How cheap and what range will electric cars achieve when safety systems are replaced by sensors and software ?
They will remain for the foreseeable future.
Accidents will reduce exponentially in proportion with the percentage of Autonomous vehicles, combined with intra vehicular communication.
Tesla will run its fleet, they won't sell the vehicle (maybe they buy Hertz? 🤔)
Very cheap.
Range won't matter, the cab will Outrange the passengers and charge faster than they refresh.
In extreme cases, you will book a "fast changeover" with a charged vehicle (rare), but the charge rate will be "3-4 hours drive in 10-15 minutes".
You won't notice.
Is there any video of him talking about his prediction 10years ago?
He overlooks a few points. Electric cars were driven worldwide by government subsidies, now that these subsidies have been removed, demand is shrinking rapidly. The prices for these piles of rubbish will therefore certainly fall. Apart from the fact that their electro-smog is extremely hazardous to health, they will probably only be a transitional technology to hybrid vehicles with e.g. hydrogen drive, just as the energy-saving lamp was a transitional technology from the light bulb to the LED lamp. I would also like to see the inclusion of inflation-adjusted data in the future. The fall in manufacturing costs was also possible in conjunction with falling commodity prices since the highs of 2011-12. We are currently running a deficit in energy and raw materials due to a lack of investment in the past. If the price curves here are not adjusted for inflation, they will probably look different in the future. I myself is specialise in the energy and commodity markets.
Meanwhile South Africa now have oil
Hi Tony, thanks for the amazing video! Today's most advance chips seems to be hitting the limits of what is physically possible. Other technology, like quantum computing, is good at specific use case. So I guess my question is do you see computing power finally facing a strong noticeable slow down in growth rate? If yes, when will that happen? Thanks!
Typically in these kinds of situation, when the rate of change begins to flatline, a new, far more capable paradigm emerges. You can look at price/effectiveness graphs for different TV technologies for a reference. My guess is photonics will be the next computing paradigm, but we’ll have to wait and see.
Why Tony does not deal with revolution possibilities with drones?
Tesla FSD V12.3 The Biggest Little Update in The World!
Rebellionaire
Is the slideshow available online?
Hey, oongawa, Tony Seba got tha powa! o/
Tony Seba amazing as always, love your predictions and agree with everything, I just think your TaaS S curve is overly optimistic.. 90% TaaS in 2030.. maybe in like California.. but no way it happens that fast in most of world.
Agreed, legislation hurdles plus strong contingencies on raw materials will likely slow down the s-curve and push 90% more around 2034.
I think you’re right. But I suspect by the end of the 2030s we’ll be discussing restricting human driving. Maybe by the mid 2030s.
While his TaaS curve for 2022 was overly optimistic back in 2017, he may still be on the mark for OECD countries by 2030-32. Once the first jurisdiction is approved for TaaS then the dominant fleet operator will flood that market, which will create a huge positive economic benefit for that market (Tony estimates $6000 per family p/a). The demand from all other jurisdictions will be massive, and the problem becomes simply how fast can the fleets scale, remembering that the TaaS fleet only needs to be
@@markplott4820 automated how? There can be no TaaS until self-driving cars are allowed on the streets..
@@Gaja9314 No one has a save self driving car to sell right now. And i dont see that coming in the near future. Sebas energy predictions could fail too. In germany the debate for fracking gas and renewal of nuclear power has just started. Billions of dollars are invested in fossil fuels again world wide. Germany is burning more coal, because it has no other choice and still faces at least partial deindustrialisation. Without russian raw materials, energy and a healthy demografic structure ...no Energiewende. Which brings me to the real disruptor.....geopolitics.
Freue mich 🇩🇪
I don't see how we will achieve 95% of EVs in 2030, while there are not charging stations enough for solving the "range anxiety" issue. In the most and significant economies of Europe, like Germany, the EVs adoption is still under 3%.
While the gas station network grew up together with the cars replacing horses, the EVs are replacing combustion engines cars. In my opinion, the EVs are not a different system. It's just a improvement in efficiency from a older system, the Io combustion engine car.
So, there's no time to wait for a charging station network. For the EVs to thrive we need almost to replace gas stations by charging stations at a rhythm fast enough for the quantity of cars we have in the modern world.
Unless the technology creates a solution for the source of the energy for the EV. If the EV could generate the energy inside, that it needs to move, then the problem would be solved. I'm imagining this TAaS with 1,6 million Km power train lifetime, with maybe a small nuclear fusion reactor, generating electric energy enough for that range.😅
Well in that case how aggressive do you think Russia will get?
Is it sad I’m waiting for Tony’s next vision what will disrupted.
🔥 #Disruption
I hope AI scientists and engineers focus their talents elsewhere, art is not a problem that needed solving.
Some people are pretty gullible
I think the way of not wanting to throw a brick at your screen is to accept that Tony will be somewhere in the region of 25-50% right… which is OK.
He has missed the really big point completely. Autonomous EVs make mass transport solutions like trains and subways redundant and hard to justify from an environmental perspective as the CO2 emissions of an EV per mile are less than a seat in an EV.