My leaf is now 12 years old and about 60% of it's original capacity at just 60,000 miles. Thankfully I have a Tesla too and a 40 miles range second car is fine.
Brilliant. So I will hold on to my trusty Mitsubishi Outlander phev (4 years old) until I can call up self driven cab 😊 And save a ton of money in the proces 😃
I love how Tony Seba presents those transformations co clearly. A challenge thought comes to my mind with this particular one. Like Elon Musk was saying, that if today all cars become self driven - those who experience the driving fatalities as say family members, would first see the 100 thousand dead per year rather then the 900 thousand lifes saved. But I am optimistic, particularly as people learn that technology or not - everyone creates each of their life experiences through ongoing emotional, mental focus- we will get to the other side peacefully :-)
Yes, the price of oil briefly went negative, but it had nothing to do with electrification. It was because of a pandemic where everyone was under a lockdown and there were no cars in the street, or planes in the sky. Let’s not get confused here.
One of the new United Kingdom Labour government’s key manifesto pledges is to reach “zero-carbon electricity” by 2030. While this target is seen as mildly ambitious, the UK has already made significant progress in slashing fossil fuels while rolling out renewable power. Under the Conservatives, coal power has been all but phased out, falling from 40% of electricity generation in 2012 to near-zero in 2024, a long 12 years later. To meet its target, Labour will phase out gas twice as fast, from 29% in 2024 to near-zero in 2030.
Which won't happen. Gas-fired generation will still pay a big part in the UK fuel mix in 2030, because it doesn't matter how many wind farms you have, they don't generate when the wind doesn't blow and solar farms generate no power at night.
@@brendanpells912 There are many forms of energy storage, your logic is not inescapable in the least. For that matter, every society that has successfully decarbonized electricity generation in under a decade has done so through NUCLEAR ENERGY: France, Sweden, South Korea, Ontario Canada. S. Korea cut the cost of building nuclear plants 30% in real terms from 1971 to 2008. Distributed baseload: Nuclear can be put essentially anywhere removing the need for building significant transmission lines. Modular nuclear power supply can be perfectly matched to power demand in location and in time. The second of the Vogtle plant’s two reactors was 30% cheaper to build than the first because workers and project managers learned from their mistakes building the first reactor. Point Beach 1 & 2: 1100 Megawatts at less than $1000 per Kilowatt. Built is less than 3 years from 1968 to 1971. Build 10,000 of those plants. You can decarbonize America in under 5 years if you simultaneously build enough Point Beach 1 & 2 replicas. Scan all the valves and pipes and everything and duplicate it. Nuclear is the single source of power that can simultaneously scale to global levels of consumption, power the removal of the last 200 years of carbon, and most importantly fully account for its own compounding emissions. NRC standards set radiation level guidelines TEN THOUSAND times lower than science justifies, which is a primary source of nuclear’s expense. Nuclear power currently produces more than 50% of emissions-free electricity in the United States. BUILD NUCLEAR.
@@beautifulgirl219 As someone that has worked in a number of nuclear power stations over the years, including during the construction of Sizewell B, I agree 100%. That was supposed to be the template for a fleet of PWR stations and by now we should built another dozen. All sacrificed at the altar of privatisation.
@@brendanpells912 Electricity will be 100% renewable easily by 2030 with batteries and solar plummeting as Tony says. It's replacing gas heating in homes and other industrial heat use cases that will take a lot longer so you're right that gas will still be part of the fuel mix, just not for electricity.
Thanks for this important information Tony. Could you research into the future cost of living accommodations? As I see your predictions show many cost reductions, in transport, food, labor, intelligence, energy, but what could disrupt the cost of housing. My and most people's income is not increasing at the same rate as the cost of housing. I hope there is a disruption coming to fix this.
Don’t miss your chance to hire Tony Seba for your event or conference! Simply contact Champions Speakers to secure your top speaker: champions-speakers.co.uk/contact
We don’t want to believe that a lot of these things are possible in the near future. But imagine if you would have told someone 200 years ago that you would be able to carry a device in your pocket that could instantaneously call someone on the other side of the planet?
I wouldn't use the Ford Lightning as an example, if I were him. Ford just acknowledged that they lose ~$140.000 on each EV they sell: doesn't quite fit the cost curve, does it...
@@EnerGeezerSquirrel If you divide capital investments with the number of sold cars, you need to sell a lot to get a reasonable cost per vehicle. I suspect that is the case. Most legacy manufacturers are playing catch-up. That is really costly. Hence their need to suppress, delay and whatnot the bev's.
@@olepetersen3554 Agree with every aspect of OEMs' positions you state: was saying that (most all) OEMs don't adhere to the disruption profile, don't have and can't acquire the mental attitude to survive the catch-up costs or patience to execute that transition...which is why their goose is cooked. Q.E.D.: R.I.P. O.E.M.s.
@@EnerGeezerSquirrel It will be a bloodbath, as stated by the Electric Viking. It is enevitable, I think. We live in interesting times, at the Chinese say...
I understand the 100% tariff on Chinese-made EVs so the United States EV industry can compete. However, I think America should make an exception to this 100% tariff. How about any car that China can manufacture and sell retail for less than $13,000 in the United States would be exempt from any tariff?
Gravity as a phenomenon is widely acknowledged. However General Relatively is not the final theory concerning it. The field equations include Newton's gravitational constant which goes unexplained. The theory does not include an explanation of inertia. Mach's principle has not been included.
The mechanics of the car may be 1 million miles, but the interior certainly won't if these cars are used for TaaS. You get, maybe, 20000 miles out of the interior.
I say we need to embrace "very good" and stop obsessing about "perfect." Level 2 and Level 3 ADA systems are making cars much safer, and should now be an included safety feature in all cars. Level 5 "perfection" (FSD) is still way off in the future -no matter what E'loon keeps promising, year after year after year.
Actually if a car or truck or van is properly xared for it is not unusual to drive them for 250k miles without many problems. Do many care for their vehicles no they don't ..😊
Because that car is over 250,000 miles start to fall apart, even if their Engine or transmission is working fine whether it’s an electric car or an ice car. You still have to deal with that issue so the million mile thing.🤷♂️ I think that’s BS
Ok, let's say it is true that TAAS will be really cheaper than car ownership, ok! But what about public transport?! Will be cheaper TAAS than public transport in cities? And what about railways, darlin'?! Also, I have to mention that urban mobility (and not only that) should be *a complementary* system, in which all forms of transport have their roles, and *NOT* a winner-takes-all race-to-the-bottom. Thanks. 🙂
This is great but technically speaking gravity hasn't been settled science for 400years. There's been general relativity plus potentially quantum gravity.
Tony is wrong about Tesla FSD. It won't be as good as a human driver for a long time, well after 2030. He's quite naive about the difficulty of Level 5 driving, and how good Autopilot was in 2021.
Tesla's are 9 times safer than average Driver.??..........I am 1000 times safer than average driver.......I do not allow a computer to drive My car.................Paul
I love your work but I would not say the FSD is safer than the average american (sober) driver (and I've tried it myself for a month). At best it is on par with a teenager that it just had a few driving lessons. One day it will be safer but that is a few years from now.
The statistics of miles driven by thousand of Tesla cars over hundreds of thousands of miles show that Teslas in drive assist have much lower accident rates than just the driver without assist. I am not sure where Elon and Tony get their statistics that full FSD are 10 times better than industry averages but I believe them.
@@juliahello6673 Not in my experience. I had to take over many times in city situations just because it was doing erratic things that I would never do. It will actually become much more dangerous until it is totally perfect, because the better it gets the less attention the driver pays (you get bored) until it is too late to recover.
I'll give you that by itself, FSD as of April 2024 when we tried the free month, was not quite human level, yet. But it improved in unhuman-like manner mostly due to AI neuralnet data training. The rate of improvement is quite impressive. As with all SW, with each release it gets better. There is no limiting factor for FSD to be 10+X safer than the average human in a matter of iterations which may be 1 to 5 years. Notice I said *safer*. Sometimes I would take over bc it was driving too cautiously for my taste. It is always the rate of change that matters.
@@kbmblizz1940 I can agree that they have made *remarkable* progress in the last year. However, I think it will get very dangerous from now on, until it is perfect (or at least nearly perfect). Because we humans stop paying attention when something is pretty good, we start looking at our phones, etc. This is when serious accidents might happen (which could force the governments to shut it down, like they did with other companies). I can absolutely agree that it will get to near perfection in the next 5 years (if there are no serious accidents in the meantime).
I never subscribe to a channel if they ask for me to subscribe within the first few minutes instead of at the end. You never even made it a minute in. SO.....nope. Also wtf is this old talk reuploaded for?
Love Tony but he has no issue with us buying Chinese EVs. This is despite China being a hostile adversary to the US. The CCP has an industrial strategy to subsidize their car companies to sell EVs below cost because they want to drive US, Japanese, and European companies out of business. The fact that the market is being distorted (not a level playing field) is not covered in Tony's analysis.
love the predictions, but exaggerations reduce confidence in the credibility of the predictions: 1.6 m kilometer in a Tesla; show me one with the same driveline that have done that and 140 t.miles for ICE ? Hertz are not happy with there EV, its not black and white. 40k $ pickup supplies a home; Ford F-150 LightningPro cost 60k$ and all the stuff needed and installation 10-20 k$
![The Great Transformation [Part 1] - Patterns of Change, Key Technologies & #PhaseChangeDisruption](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/z7vhMcKvHo8/mqdefault.jpg)
Love your work! The world leaders need to wake up! Thank you Tony
He's extraordinary
My 10-year old Nissan Leaf, is still cranking along at 85% of its original capacity. - Think about that... -
And the Leaf is one of the EVs with the lowest quality battery. It really is a non-issue!
How long do I have to think about it?
I’m thinking that so is our, 10 years, 120 000 km, still 12 bars and about 90% SOH
My leaf is now 12 years old and about 60% of it's original capacity at just 60,000 miles. Thankfully I have a Tesla too and a 40 miles range second car is fine.
@@TheAegisClaw Are you located in a hot climate?
Brilliant. So I will hold on to my trusty Mitsubishi Outlander phev (4 years old) until I can call up self driven cab 😊 And save a ton of money in the proces 😃
That will probably coincide with the closure of so many filling stations that you will have every encouragement.
@@jeremydable2468 I look forward to it. Having our car standing idle 90% of the time really is a waste 😉
I suspect this is partly why Gas prices are being Pushed Higher and Higher, out of proportion to the Spot Price of Crude that it used to Follow!
I love how Tony Seba presents those transformations co clearly. A challenge thought comes to my mind with this particular one. Like Elon Musk was saying, that if today all cars become self driven - those who experience the driving fatalities as say family members, would first see the 100 thousand dead per year rather then the 900 thousand lifes saved. But I am optimistic, particularly as people learn that technology or not - everyone creates each of their life experiences through ongoing emotional, mental focus- we will get to the other side peacefully :-)
Why re upload this talk from two years ago?
10000 viewers might now be open to the possibilities suggested.
Not seen this one.
The self-driving car technology has not lived up to Tony’s forecast. Still ‘almost there’, but not quite.
"EVs are superior" - I agree - which is why I bought one - the world's best selling car - the Tesla Model Y.
The Model Y is absolutely fabulous- (TWO of our sons have one).
Yes, the price of oil briefly went negative, but it had nothing to do with electrification. It was because of a pandemic where everyone was under a lockdown and there were no cars in the street, or planes in the sky. Let’s not get confused here.
so that shows the sensitivity of the price to a drop in demand-whatever the cause,a pandemic or electrification
TaaS hasn't worked yet. For that reason, we are not seeing the pace of transition he predicted.
One of the new United Kingdom Labour government’s key manifesto pledges is to reach “zero-carbon electricity” by 2030. While this target is seen as mildly ambitious, the UK has already made significant progress in slashing fossil fuels while rolling out renewable power. Under the Conservatives, coal power has been all but phased out, falling from 40% of electricity generation in 2012 to near-zero in 2024, a long 12 years later. To meet its target, Labour will phase out gas twice as fast, from 29% in 2024 to near-zero in 2030.
Which won't happen. Gas-fired generation will still pay a big part in the UK fuel mix in 2030, because it doesn't matter how many wind farms you have, they don't generate when the wind doesn't blow and solar farms generate no power at night.
@@brendanpells912 There are many forms of energy storage, your logic is not inescapable in the least. For that matter, every society that has successfully decarbonized electricity generation in under a decade has done so through NUCLEAR ENERGY: France, Sweden, South Korea, Ontario Canada. S. Korea cut the cost of building nuclear plants 30% in real terms from 1971 to 2008. Distributed baseload: Nuclear can be put essentially anywhere removing the need for building significant transmission lines. Modular nuclear power supply can be perfectly matched to power demand in location and in time. The second of the Vogtle plant’s two reactors was 30% cheaper to build than the first because workers and project managers learned from their mistakes building the first reactor. Point Beach 1 & 2: 1100 Megawatts at less than $1000 per Kilowatt. Built is less than 3 years from 1968 to 1971. Build 10,000 of those plants. You can decarbonize America in under 5 years if you simultaneously build enough Point Beach 1 & 2 replicas. Scan all the valves and pipes and everything and duplicate it. Nuclear is the single source of power that can simultaneously scale to global levels of consumption, power the removal of the last 200 years of carbon, and most importantly fully account for its own compounding emissions. NRC standards set radiation level guidelines TEN THOUSAND times lower than science justifies, which is a primary source of nuclear’s expense. Nuclear power currently produces more than 50% of emissions-free electricity in the United States. BUILD NUCLEAR.
@@beautifulgirl219 As someone that has worked in a number of nuclear power stations over the years, including during the construction of Sizewell B, I agree 100%. That was supposed to be the template for a fleet of PWR stations and by now we should built another dozen. All sacrificed at the altar of privatisation.
@@brendanpells912 Thanks for your comment. Cheers!
@@brendanpells912 Electricity will be 100% renewable easily by 2030 with batteries and solar plummeting as Tony says. It's replacing gas heating in homes and other industrial heat use cases that will take a lot longer so you're right that gas will still be part of the fuel mix, just not for electricity.
Should post the date of this talk
Before Isaac newton we were floating around in zero G😂😂
Thanks for this important information Tony. Could you research into the future cost of living accommodations? As I see your predictions show many cost reductions, in transport, food, labor, intelligence, energy, but what could disrupt the cost of housing. My and most people's income is not increasing at the same rate as the cost of housing. I hope there is a disruption coming to fix this.
Don’t miss your chance to hire Tony Seba for your event or conference! Simply contact Champions Speakers to secure your top speaker:
champions-speakers.co.uk/contact
We don’t want to believe that a lot of these things are possible in the near future. But imagine if you would have told someone 200 years ago that you would be able to carry a device in your pocket that could instantaneously call someone on the other side of the planet?
The model 3 is now under 40k
I wouldn't use the Ford Lightning as an example, if I were him. Ford just acknowledged that they lose ~$140.000 on each EV they sell: doesn't quite fit the cost curve, does it...
@@EnerGeezerSquirrel If you divide capital investments with the number of sold cars, you need to sell a lot to get a reasonable cost per vehicle. I suspect that is the case. Most legacy manufacturers are playing catch-up. That is really costly. Hence their need to suppress, delay and whatnot the bev's.
@@olepetersen3554 Agree with every aspect of OEMs' positions you state: was saying that (most all) OEMs don't adhere to the disruption profile, don't have and can't acquire the mental attitude to survive the catch-up costs or patience to execute that transition...which is why their goose is cooked.
Q.E.D.:
R.I.P. O.E.M.s.
@@EnerGeezerSquirrel It will be a bloodbath, as stated by the Electric Viking. It is enevitable, I think. We live in interesting times, at the Chinese say...
Ford did announce the Lightning at order prices of 40K that is true but I think the averagw actual selling price is more like 85k to 120k ....
When and where was the recording taken?
I understand the 100% tariff on Chinese-made EVs so the United States EV industry can compete. However, I think America should make an exception to this 100% tariff. How about any car that China can manufacture and sell retail for less than $13,000 in the United States would be exempt from any tariff?
Gravity as a phenomenon is widely acknowledged. However General Relatively is not the final theory concerning it. The field equations include Newton's gravitational constant which goes unexplained. The theory does not include an explanation of inertia. Mach's principle has not been included.
The mechanics of the car may be 1 million miles, but the interior certainly won't if these cars are used for TaaS. You get, maybe, 20000 miles out of the interior.
For cheap robotaxis, you’ll get more durable interiors similar to what you’d see in a metro or bus.
I'm wondering if the heat / exhaust / fumes / vapor created by ICE.... Has been compared to the heat/fumes/vaporcreated by EVs?
EVs don't produce any fumes, and not much heat either. .
why??you looking for something to sniff after the ICE age??
Huh?
I say we need to embrace "very good" and stop obsessing about "perfect." Level 2 and Level 3 ADA systems are making cars much safer, and should now be an included safety feature in all cars. Level 5 "perfection" (FSD) is still way off in the future -no matter what E'loon keeps promising, year after year after year.
Actually if a car or truck or van is properly xared for it is not unusual to drive them for 250k miles without many problems. Do many care for their vehicles no they don't ..😊
Which is an expensive business, all that maintenance, and they still don't reach a million miles. Who wants to pay for a million miles of gas, too?
Because that car is over 250,000 miles start to fall apart, even if their Engine or transmission is working fine whether it’s an electric car or an ice car. You still have to deal with that issue so the million mile thing.🤷♂️ I think that’s BS
@ETOP911 High wear interior can be designed to be cheaply replaced. Battery can be reused. Current vehicles are designed for obsolescence.
The AI of today is pretty pathetic, because there is not enough training of any models with real data. 😂
Ok, let's say it is true that TAAS will be really cheaper than car ownership, ok! But what about public transport?! Will be cheaper TAAS than public transport in cities? And what about railways, darlin'?!
Also, I have to mention that urban mobility (and not only that) should be *a complementary* system, in which all forms of transport have their roles, and *NOT* a winner-takes-all race-to-the-bottom. Thanks. 🙂
Good talk but from years ago now
This is great but technically speaking gravity hasn't been settled science for 400years. There's been general relativity plus potentially quantum gravity.
why put up old material wheres the update or at least be honest about the video age?
lying about how long an ICE engine will last, im out
Tony Seba: ICEs can last only 200.000 miles.
Mercedes-Benz Cobra: *Are you sure about that?!*
you should tell that to Mitch McConnell sister in-law bull shit
Word, playa, word.
Tony is wrong about Tesla FSD. It won't be as good as a human driver for a long time, well after 2030. He's quite naive about the difficulty of Level 5 driving, and how good Autopilot was in 2021.
900,000 Tesla owners would be saved not plebs who can't afford Teslas and the payments that the rent seekers want 😂
Tesla's are 9 times safer than average Driver.??..........I am 1000 times safer than average driver.......I do not allow a computer to drive My car.................Paul
You are not 1000 times safer. Also, auto pilot requires human assistance. It is not by itself safe, but it makes a human a safer driver.
I love your work but I would not say the FSD is safer than the average american (sober) driver (and I've tried it myself for a month). At best it is on par with a teenager that it just had a few driving lessons. One day it will be safer but that is a few years from now.
FSD + driver is safer
The statistics of miles driven by thousand of Tesla cars over hundreds of thousands of miles show that Teslas in drive assist have much lower accident rates than just the driver without assist. I am not sure where Elon and Tony get their statistics that full FSD are 10 times better than industry averages but I believe them.
@@juliahello6673 Not in my experience. I had to take over many times in city situations just because it was doing erratic things that I would never do. It will actually become much more dangerous until it is totally perfect, because the better it gets the less attention the driver pays (you get bored) until it is too late to recover.
I'll give you that by itself, FSD as of April 2024 when we tried the free month, was not quite human level, yet. But it improved in unhuman-like manner mostly due to AI neuralnet data training. The rate of improvement is quite impressive. As with all SW, with each release it gets better. There is no limiting factor for FSD to be 10+X safer than the average human in a matter of iterations which may be 1 to 5 years. Notice I said *safer*. Sometimes I would take over bc it was driving too cautiously for my taste. It is always the rate of change that matters.
@@kbmblizz1940 I can agree that they have made *remarkable* progress in the last year. However, I think it will get very dangerous from now on, until it is perfect (or at least nearly perfect). Because we humans stop paying attention when something is pretty good, we start looking at our phones, etc. This is when serious accidents might happen (which could force the governments to shut it down, like they did with other companies). I can absolutely agree that it will get to near perfection in the next 5 years (if there are no serious accidents in the meantime).
I never subscribe to a channel if they ask for me to subscribe within the first few minutes instead of at the end. You never even made it a minute in. SO.....nope. Also wtf is this old talk reuploaded for?
Love Tony but he has no issue with us buying Chinese EVs. This is despite China being a hostile adversary to the US. The CCP has an industrial strategy to subsidize their car companies to sell EVs below cost because they want to drive US, Japanese, and European companies out of business. The fact that the market is being distorted (not a level playing field) is not covered in Tony's analysis.
love the predictions, but exaggerations reduce confidence in the credibility of the predictions:
1.6 m kilometer in a Tesla; show me one with the same driveline that have done that and 140 t.miles for ICE ? Hertz are not happy with there EV, its not black and white.
40k $ pickup supplies a home; Ford F-150 LightningPro cost 60k$ and all the stuff needed and installation 10-20 k$
Not 9 times safer ... 9% less likely to have an accident! Big difference.
I think he meant 9x safer.
480k miles per crash for human, 4.31 million miles per crash for human + autopilot. It’s in the slides he showed.
9x not 9 percent dude
Tony would have to stop repeating himself so often,
repeating himself so often, before I bothered to take him seriously, take him seriously.