Tony Seba Speaker | Why Conventional Energy & Transport will be Obsolete by 2030 | Contact Agent
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- Опубликовано: 14 окт 2024
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Do not miss this new and exciting interview with Tony Seba, Co-Founder of RethinkX and creator of the Seba Technology Disruption Framework who discusses why Conventional Energy & Transport will be Obsolete by 2030. Watch this video to find out more!
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🔸 Who is Tony Seba?
Tony Seba is a decorated entrepreneur, educator and thought leader, who today is renowned as the Co-Founder of RethinkX. Sitting at the helm of the illustrious think tank, Tony is dedicated to analysing and forecasting technology-driven disruption - with his work predominantly focusing on the complex patterns of change and disruption in multiple industries. Also the Creator of the Seba Technology Disruption Framework, Tony is now hired as a highly popular keynote speaker for corporate events to detail his expertise on the ongoing disruptive change taking place across industries such as transport, energy, agriculture and food to name but a few. When looking for an expert on disruption, hire Tony Seba today!
Following an early career in Business Development for Cisco Systems, Director of Strategic Planning for RSA Data Security and the Founder of PrintNation.com, Tony has forged an illustrious reputation as a thought leader on disruptive change. Having foresaw the rise of companies such as Netflix, Google, Salesforce and Apple, and predicted the trillion-dollar rise of solar-powered equipment and electric vehicles, Tony is widely acclaimed for his ability to speak on humanities transformations throughout history. To share his expertise, Tony has become the author of the Amazon No.1 bestselling books Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation, Winners Take All and Solar Trillions. He is also a leading co-author, including the titles Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030, Rethinking Humanity, Rethinking Food and Agriculture 2020-2030, Rethinking Energy 2020-2030 and Rethinking Climate Change.
Today, Tony dedicates his time to being a serial Silicon Valley angel investor - starring on broadcasts for the likes of CNN, CNBC, the BBC, Fox News and TVChosun. Tony is also highly sought after to appear in documentaries and movies, having previously starred in Forward Thinking: A Sustainable World by Bloomberg. In addition to his television work, Tony has also been featured in leading media outlets, such as the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, the New York Times, Forbes, the Guardian and Bloomberg. In addition, Tony has also been an Instructor in Entrepreneurship, Disruption and Clean Energy at Stanford University on their Continuing Studies Program - teaching the next generation of entrepreneurs dedicated to disruption and the environment.
In recognition of his prominent career, Tony has been awarded the Savvy Award, the Clean Energy Action’s Sunshine Award, the Solar Future Today’s Visionary Influencer Award and the Solar Transformation Recognition, the inaugural award from ASES. With such a prominent career to his name, Tony is now highly sought after as a keynote speaker for corporate events. A seasoned speaker, Tony has previously delivered speeches for clients such as Google, the Global Leaders Forum, the European Commission, JP Morgan and the National Governors Association. He has also spoken at events such as China EV100, the Conference on World Affairs, COP21 and Davos.
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This video was filmed in 2017 and published in 2024. The speakers featured on our channel are either managed by Champions, have worked with us in the past or are known to speak within the industry.
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He keeps saying "by 2020" ... I wish people would place a date on these videos.
Tony was speaking at an event in NYC I think. It was in 2017..
I’ve seen this one before as well, the poster is looking for views and revenue.
Hey actually said this year 2017, yep totally agree. Annoying, still interesting, even if his predictions are about 3 years out. Way better than anyone else
He said 2017 several times😂
That’s why I only watch the videos on his channel. These videos are just repeats videos that he already did.
His latest video has this title “"The Great Transformation" - TAQA 20th Anniversary Celebration / Dhahran, Saudi Arabia [16 Oct 2023]”
And it’s very good
He’s absolutely right about the disruptions coming. I don’t understand why people are so hung up over whether his time estimates are off by a few years. Even a decade off! So what? MASSIVE disruption is coming exactly as he predicts. Like gravity. Nobody can stop it because it’s all based on well understood cost and technology curves. Deal with it.
Precisely. No one is missing late charges at Blockbuster
His time-line is way off. I believe most of what he says will happen, but not until the 2040s. Big Oil / Utilities, governments and other corporations have to much to lose to let this change happen to fast.
@@jefferysurratt5650, I think 2040’s is a bit pessimistic simply because the cost curves so clearly favor SWB that even greater fossil fuel subsidizing won’t be enough to change the fundamental economics. And exponential growth can be quite stunning in terms of the speed of market domination. But I agree that 2030 is aggressive. Guess we’ll have to wait and see how long it really takes: 2030’s or 2040’s.
He makes special mention of Tesla and Nividia . If you had listened then and invested in both, you would have done insanely well. This presentation has aged VERY well.
I'm skeptical about one thing. Most people go to work at the same time more or less. How this is solved in his model ?
I think by the time we have full self driving cars we'll also have robots in mass so that takes care of the work commute problem.
Well look at the rise of home working. But yes, rush hour will be the peak the system has to work for.
You can share vehicles, automatic busses.
As this was from 2017 and before Covid I think some of his target dates are been postponed by about 2 to 3 years. But it seems pretty realistic with all electric cars by 2030 to 2035 but EV Autonomous Taxis will take longer in my opinion maybe 2035.
Very old video, but a classic. FSD prediction way off, but a lot of progress has been made since 2017, lately because of the new disruptor that has arisen: advanced ML (with the name inflated to AI). And that’s in the early part of the steep part of the S curve.
Tesla won't have Level 5 in a few years. It's not close now, and no evidence it's improving fast enough for such a high level of safety any time soon. You don't know that FSD is in the early phase of the steep S curve. It's quite possible that the cheap camera sensors and bad maps will put a low ceiling on how good FSD can be.
A real Level 5 car in a large fleet would have to be able to safely drive around a big city for tens of millions of miles between any bad failures, and not have repeating similar bad failures, or it won't be allowed to go driverless in any state because of federal recalls, lawsuits, horrible press, and violating state driving laws, even in Texas and Florida.
Hard to predict J curve
Tesla says that they will have it next year.
@@timsiener LOL this comment is underrated
@@charliedoyle7824that comment aged even worse than this video. Look at the just released FSD 12.5. it's made huge leaps.
Am I wrong in thinking when Tony said there will be 80% less cars on the road, he actually means 80% less cars parked in either public or private lots... seems like more of a benefit to cities & providing companies than individuals owning their own autonomous electric vehicles, especially if they'll be so cheap. But please tell me why i'm dumb
When he says on the road he means in circulation. So if a city has 1000 cars, most parked, say 900 parked and 100 being actively driven, there'll be 200 cars, 100 charging or being serviced and still 100 on the road.
Ownership will move to a community model - like Uber with fractional ownership and no driver.
2024 and the BYD Seagull costs 10K USD. The only problem that you can't buy it for 10K in Europe cause it's not available or import tariffs gonna make it cost 20K!
For those who complain about an “old” video. . .
This is Called ”postdiction”
Tony has pretty much nailed it.
Not sure he's on the money regarding energy costs especially relating to charging EVs for instance. In the UK it's costing a lot more for public charging per mile than petrol.
Whatever you call it, it sucks to not mention it. It should be right in the title.▼
@@ronaldgarrison8478can’t argue with you on that. But. .. I’m watching it to refresh my 80-year old memory. . .
He said most new cars will be EV by 2025, EVs currently are 8% of new car sales
Globally, EV sales were 16.5 percent in 2023. Almost a 30% increase from the 2022 sales. China passed Japan as the largest global exporter of passenger vehicles.
I'm working in the bakken oil field. It's 2024 and this guy just said I would be out of a job 3 years ago. I wonder what eles he's wrong about.
2030 not 2021
2017 presentation. While directionally correct, I think Tony was a little too optimistic by about 5 years (i.e., looks like most of his projections will occur by 2035, not 2030)
When IBM was ready to launch their first IBM PC they made a study and estimated that the total market potential for PC's in the USA would be less than one million units. that's why they did not want to build their own operating system, and went for Microsoft as Bill Gates was only asking a few dollars per unit sold for it's MS DOS !
Oooooold video
This vid is from around 2018.
More likely in April 2016 when Model 3 pre-orders hit 300,000+.
@@williammoore413 He says it's in early 2017, when he quotes Elon about FSD driving across the USA by the end of 2017, which Tony says that's "by the end of this year".
@@charliedoyle7824, yes the famous “next year” Elon Musk got established in 2016. Fully autonomous - next year.
Hello Tony, I read your books and am a fan of your work.
Your lectures do not forecast heavy constraints that might slow down disruption. In our country 'The Netherlands' to grid is certainly one of them and I suspect we are not the only ones. I must say we do not build enough storage capacity as your models predict, so that might be part of the answer.
I also wonder why our government plans for so much hydrogen power for industries, while you seem to stick to electric only.
Would appreciate comments on the role of the grid hampering progress.
Hydrogen could be used to store energy. I mean extra electricity that is not consumed. What Seba calls superpower. You can either store it in caverns as we do for methane or use it in heavy trucks, etc And why not even just burn it to provide electricity during the short periods of time there's not enough electricity produced; avoiding fossile fuels use.
If you’re as big of a fan of Tony Seba as you say you are - you would know that this is not his RUclips channel. His actual RUclips channel is called “Tony Seba.” This video is just some knucklehead uploading Tony’s video from 2017 and pretending it is new. Don’t worry, everything is up-to-date though, nothing that has to do with autonomy has changed since 2017 - fully autonomous Tesla are definitely coming “next year.”
Holland is using hydrogen? Good grief that's a horrible idea.
Tony is way off about autonomous vehicles. He didn't understand the difficulty of the problem.
Ok he is off by 5 years there.
7 years old - 2017 for all who wonder, what a mess
if amrerican pay 1$ per day for their whole power consumption if they store it during off peak time ?
I bet this will be far more than 10 kWh which is the average here. And we pay 3,6 $ for a day
It is human nature to hang on to what we are used to. We just don't like to change. Our culture is more regressive than this S curve model.
Yes but when something makes sense, then progress is inevitable. For example, automobiles, TV and cell phones all took about 10 years to be adopted.
I've got a Dyson hoover it works great
😂
This video from 2017
Interesting lecture, to think on technologies and disruption, but honestly he didn't predict one single date correctly. My doubt still is wheter it's a question of time (5 or 10 years later it will happend) or actually never.
The video is from 2017. Even Google/YT would know and could put a date.
So much for a "framework" to predict stuff, considering most of it turned out to be way off.
Actually its right on track internationally.
He got the EV timing very wrong due to misinterpretation of battery data. The battery efficacy is based on ideal ambient conditions, which do not exist "on the road".
Welcome to the future 🙂
Do people highly educated in thermodynamic physics know of a higher consideration of nature that overrides accepting that diodes can rectify Johnson - Nyquest thermal noise power and, given the orderliness of consistent orientation in parallel, aggregate a DC residue from each diode into electrical power at any scale coproduced with refrigeration of equivalent thermal energy absorbtion?
The idea of using diodes to rectify Johnson-Nyquist thermal noise to produce electrical power is related to the concept of stochastic resonance and energy harvesting.
Stochastic resonance refers to the phenomenon where a system's response to a weak input signal is enhanced by random noise. In the context of thermodynamic physics, this can involve harnessing thermal fluctuations (thermal noise) to produce useful work, such as generating electrical power.
The concept of using rectifying diodes to convert thermal noise into electrical power is a well-known idea in the field of energy harvesting. By arranging diodes in parallel and taking advantage of their rectification properties, it's possible to aggregate the rectified DC voltage from each diode, thereby producing electrical power from thermal fluctuations.
Additionally, the mention of refrigeration and thermal energy absorption suggests a consideration of the Carnot cycle or thermodynamic cycles related to refrigeration and heat engines. The Carnot cycle sets theoretical limits on the efficiency of heat engines and refrigerators based on temperature differentials, which is fundamental knowledge in thermodynamic physics.
The latest figures in this are 2016
RUclips recommended me this video (probably recorded in 2017).
Very funny to see how many things this guy got wrong.
That's the problem when you take a purely business model approach extracted from the tech/digital world to 1) predict general behaviours and adoptions in the social space; 2) talk about infrastructure evolutions in the physical space - the main assumption here is "business model → behaviour" is a constant. I'm not saying "mono-causal" but not so far from it.
Whereas it might be true in a limited medium such as the digital world, in which the role of infrastructure is rendered invisible, it is not true in our physical and social spaces.
To exclude specific regional, topographical, socio-cultural constraints (either positive or negative) as causes and limiters of evolution in socio-economic landscape is rather foolish -although expected from this type of profile.
Now, to sell "Transport as a service" as disruptive innovation is frankly disingenuous. Numbers like "cars are parked 96% of the time" and "cars are the 2nd largest capital expense" should elicit the bare minimum critical thinking from the audience: it shows this model of transportation is inefficient, on top of being a societal burden (safety, health, cost) and ecologically bankrupt, so how this can be used in an argumentation in favour of even more of the same sh*t?
And if you buy the sales pitch - "10x asset utilisation", "40% driving time"- this is not what you, personally, will get out of it. We talk about a few major private companies here. We talk about the full privatisation of an already hegemonic transportation modality -and a very inefficient one at this- with high potential for a lock-in effect.
My golly, what do you mean, sir. I just watched the “Electric Viking” RUclips channel and he said that Tony Seba is an absolute prophet. 🔮
I'm saying the same thing. When Seba says that in the future everything will be (simply put): battery-powered, everything autonomous & on-demand and everything will be privately-owned fleets, he is also suggests that things like public transportation should be privatized. Well, *NOT* everything is meant to be a privatized cashcow & *NOT* everything needs a battery, damn it! 🤷♂️😒
Not to mention 2 things: *NO* mention of the best actual transportation mode *(railways)* and *there are* actually people that drive 500K miles their own car. 🙄
Look at the energy transformation that has been occurring in places like Australia and elsewhere; the fall in battery costs, not to mention the dramatic falls in solar; etc. Some of the dates might be awry, but the pandemic did have something of a global impact. The reality is that transport will be and is being disrupted, while energy already is. Even if full autonomous driving is not on the horizon, fully autonomous trains are now common.
Back in the 70s the Limits to Growth report was widely ridiculed because of erroneous time scales, but is now seen in a very different light.
Anyway, the main gist of his argument is that exponential or disruptive change is nearly always underestimated, primarily because Governments and ‘experts’ use linear models for their predictions.
@@chrislockhartsmith9469 I know about autonomous trains and metros & I got your point. They are a briliant idea 👌. But my point is: *One solution DOESN'T fit to all problems!*
I guess my point is that the talk is more about the process of exponential change or disruption, as he likes to call it, rather than solutions per se. The predictions are derived from analysis rather than a futurist’s imagination; this what makes his argument compelling.
I think Tony’s presentation is very interesting but self driving vehicle sharing will run into the same problem we have today with private vehicles which is that everyone has to use them at the same time for commuting to work.
I think by the time we have full self driving cars we'll also have robots in mass so that takes care of the work commute problem.
Not everyone is commuting at exactly the same time. It will be at most 50% of the total car fleet actually driving on the street at the same time, likely much less. Especially with hybrid work where people don't have to go to the office every day.
Major music blasting moments.▼
Curves, S, J, Bathtub, high failure, then no failure, then high failure, with chips failing ???????
It may not be a software problem for FSD 😕 😮
2024 now and nothing predicted to happen by 2020 has happened.
I think he placed too much value in Elon Musk's promises! :)
@@lightningslim
🤥 Elon Musk 🎯
God you are dumb…..carry on being the haters….and you will stay poor 😂😂
Well he didn't predict the pandemic, but batteries have fallen in cost to buy (by major industrial buyer) 20% every year for the last 5 years. And there are robotaxis in limited numbers in China and San Francisco now. Tesla have announced a major reveal of their new "Cyber-cab" on 8th Aug 2024. Many of his laughed at and dismissed predictions have come true:
1. Falling rate of the cost of solar PV.
2. Falling rate in the cost of EVs - in China now the BYD Seagull cost US$15,000 and is a compact car with 300km plus range.
Both these predictions have come true.
Aged like milk.
Framework to understanding technology disruption.
Bottom line
15% of all energy used is electricity.
100% electricity is X7 more electricity.
If grid electricity, X7 more national grid capacity.
National grid built over 100years.
National grid is fragile. Blackouts.
National grid is extremely expensive.
National grid $1million per km for construction costs.
National grid is millions and millions of km.
NATIONAL GRID is $TRILLIONs, so X7 is bigger than the GDP. Plus grid generation $.
National grid is EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE.
Rooftop solar PV does not need more grid.
EVs will be parked 23hrs every day.
Vehicles drive building to building.
Home battery 10kWh, $15,000
EVs big battery 100kWh, FREE with vehicles.
EV battery liquid temperature management is extending battery life cycles by decades.
Petrochemical industry will need fossil fuels and so a little fossil fuels in emergency will be nothing.
The UTILITY FACTOR for EVs will be unbeatable.
This is ridiculous
It never fails to amaze me how China is capable of such long term planning, such foresight and most importantly implementation of their plans 👏👏👏The speaker must have been present on the meetings when the Chinese were planning on their pivot to green energy 🤣🤣🤣
Anybody relying on McKinsey advice is lost...
So far off. They didn't realize how quickly the public would catch on to the EV scam. Clean energy 🤣🤣🤣
Go Trump...
22:16 Clean Energy Action (Boulder, Colorado) banner 1:03:05 "it's 2017" - so this is an UNCREDITED COPY☹️😡 of CEA award program video recorded by Colorado Renewable Energy Society (@CORenewable) CRES at CU Boulder
UTTER DELUSIONAL NONSENSE.
Famous educational lecture repeated many times. Should be school curriculum everywhere.
This is 5 yr old stuff totally unworthy of watching as of today
*8yrs later DYSON still never made a EV and haven't heard anything about it either.*
They cancelled it about two years ago.