Thanks for your latest keynote. I've been watching (and read your book) your keynotes for some time and several times in evolving versions and it's always a pleasure of enlightenment. And it makes me very optimistic and curious about the near future. I'm very thankful that I will witness this epic energy-revolution. Thank you for sharing your great work Tony!
Tony Seba indicated 5 Clean Disruption of Energy & Transportation: . 1. Batteries. 2. Electric Vehicles. 3. Autonomous Vehicles. 4. Ride-Hailing. 5. Solar. I wondered which company has all five disruption covered???? . Hmmm.... .
The rest is from the ancillary businesses: ICE parts suppliers, ICE dealerships, quick lube franchises, and people with large amounts of money invested in these companies. EVs - and Tesla is the driving force behind EVs - represent an existential threat to these companies, and they're not going to let a little thing like the truth stop them from disparaging Tesla.
Best hopeful news I have heard for the future in a long time. I do hope that by 2021 the oil consumption does drop that drastically for a multitude of reasons. Just 3 more years to hold on.
Some of the software advances coming in telepresence combined with AR eyewear (or even just using old fashion mobile devices, etc) will add to the auto driving services and allow professional workers (maybe other types as well) to effectively start their shift once they get into the car and end their shift when they get out after returning home for the day, allowing them to live 2-3 hours easily from a town or city (Cities like Sydney in Australia with not so good public transport and inflated (part government policy, part market conditions) house prices will benefit greatly and other cities and towns that are in a similar situation).
Tony add 5G cell service for self driving cars needs to be added into your speech. Faster data downloaded to the cars for the latest data on roads and other cars talking to each other.
They should also note that when fleets replace personal cars, during peak hours of demand like morning or evening, prices to transport might go up quite a lot. During the day it will definitely be cheaper but peak hours and amount of people traveling don't change and you still need those cars available.
I wondered that too...how does his model deal with rush hour demand. And how would on-demand cars reduce traffic congestion? How would the system deal with high demand days ie. Thanksgiving, Christmas, 4th July, etc.?
well imagine only if each car with 5 seats will be fully occupied, how many cars u will remove from trafic??.I deal with traffic every day at 5:30am and i find it stupid how a waste of energy , time , space is the daily driving with 1 person in each car. I think fleets can manage peak hours with different size of cars, it needs to start and then will develop solutions once they are moving on.Our life style needs to change period.
Sure. The car would drop the kids to school & you to work, no problem. Or a car will pick other kids up on the way to school, no problem. Or the car could pick up work colleagues on the way to work, no problem.
Good work Tony. Spot on .One point if the electricity going to be so cheap i think people will partly hang on to their electric vehicles so vehicle ownership will not die that soon.
How will this affect residential real estate in urban and suburban US? If urban centers are built up that will mean more supply than demand, so will quality housing become cheaper downtown? Since people will be autonomously driven from suburbia to downtown will that mean more people will move away from city centers? Will prices in both urban and suburban areas cool down?
Great work. I've seen this sort of trend forecasted by other very smart people too, from different perspectives. I stand convinced, and more so now, thanks to this lecture. I am a little skeptical though about a possible traffic heaven so soon. Most of us are still commuting at the same time. So, unless we start using individual short narrow track vehicles (twizzy like), congested we'll remain.
There is plenty of room on the roads now. Humans can't make a deal with a car 20 cars ahead to reduce congestion ( you go through light I am turning right). Add in a few less cars. And once congestion drops it drops faster as you spend less time on the road you spend less time on the road. The transition will not be pretty though.
Ah! Another one who gets it! It's not just because the American dollar is propped up by oil. think of it in the same way Tony Seba does It's a disruption. It's a convergence of various. circumstances. If the US economy is declining, even domestically, because they're stuck in the cycle, other economies, even those of "third world countries" around the world will be investing and benefiting from the green power revolution. A good example is Morocco, who are in the process of constructing solar facilities that may, within a few years, have sufficient power for the whole of Europe(!) If the project is completed and deals are done Morocco becomes an "energy superpower" Disruption! You can effectively apply this to many of the equatorial countries (who are quite often poor) but have a relative abundance of sunshine and often a lot of wind. It seems logical to me that the smart "first world powers" of today would be investing not only in their own infrastructure but that of these countries to benefit from the construction and ongoing power supply. Strangely enough, China appears to be doing just that. Of course once these projects come to fruition they will have not only excess money but excess power with which they can invest in clean transport systems. It's also been noted in Morocco that installation of these solar and wind facilities actually makes slight changes to the climate that increasing rainfall, great if you're in a desert! In the same way that the progress of EV's will be matched by the decline of fossil vehicles, doubling the speed of transition, the the power supply transition could happen extremely quickly.
The simple solution would be to mandate registration for alternative energy apparatuses and then to use the registration fees to create a demand for the American dollar that backs the value thereof. Indeed American alternative energy corporations can be forced to pay for the registration of all equipment, even that in foreign countries so long as they are headquartered or even do business in the United States. If foreign alternative energy companies are treated likewise by their governments and if these merge with American companies, then the result would be multinational alternative energy corporations backing multiple national currencies through the payment of registration fees...
Hi Hidden, sorry i'm late. The more simple solution.... when solar is cheaper direct, than transmitting ANY electricity (including solar), there's no need for a grid....
Wars for water are the hard way to get water. The presenter showcases how solar effectively doubles every 2 years and will reach 100% by around 2030. The growth will still continue though and the total output will continue to double every two years, one of those uses can be providing energy for massive desalination plants. Its way cheaper to build lots of absurdly cheap solar and desalination plants and just straight up convert ocean water to fresh water than it is to go to war and try to 'take' water. The cost of war is incredible and if people have a super cheap option to water they sure as hell won't go to war over it.
NO COMPETETION Electric scooter 5/- Rupees per charge - 100+ Km + Clean & Green. Vs Petrol Scooter 100/- Rupees per ltr - 50 km + Air & Noise pollution. Electric mobility is toooo big an oppurtunity. Never in one's life time such a fantastic grand oppurtunity can come second time. We should be all grateful & thankful to Our God's for putting us in the right place at the right time. Any entrepreneur should grab it with both hand. Imagine being in a country with world's max number of two wheelers & now they all have to all be 100% replaced in next 4 years. It can't get bigger. The pies so huge that it's on one's own capicity to claim as much. Nothing could be better for people who want to do something with sky's as your only limit. Lot of people ask me how.....Nothing will change in your life if you don't do something different from what you've been doing. The real game of numbers........ mind boggling. Two wheelers monthly sales in India is appx Fifty Lac vehicles new & pre-owned. Per day it's works out to 1.2 lac vehicles sold daily. That's a turnover of 700-900 crores rupees or 10-12 millions usd daily. Incredible India!!! Most people focus on the wrong thing; They focus on the result, not the process. The process is the sacrifice, it's all the hard parts; the trust, the sweat, the pain, the tears, the losses. *You make the sacrifices any way. You learn to enjoy them, or at least embrace them.* In the end it is the sacrifices that must fulfill you. Everyone wants to predict the future--But one can only "guess", the truth only time has the power to show.!!! Though "Nothing can stop an idea whose time has come" & rest assured "It is not the strongest that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change." & It's team work with dedication passion & focus.. We at Rissala - Evolet stand strongly behind the Government for this push to electric mobility & do our bit to make it a success. The greatness of a company is not in how much wealth it acquires, but in its integrity & its ability to affect the people & enviornment around positively. _Ever Grateful to the Indian Army, Cavalry & the Horses!!!_ It's important to Dream big. Make a Bindass Passionate team & get down to Action!! *Waafadari, Junoon aur Wishwaas* _Agar hai toh aur kuch ho na ho faraq nahi padta, aur yeh nahi hai toh aur kuch bhi ho faraq nahi padta._ *Loyalty, Passion & Trust -* _If these qualities are there, then nothing else matters, & if not there, then anything else does not matter._ Ally. www.evoletindia.com. _What would you attempt to do if you knew you would not fail?_ www.evoletindia.com.
Even with autonomous vehicles and uber business model, supply still needs to meet peak demand which dictates the fleet size. I am not sure how the fleet size can come down in the next decade or so.
The fleet comes down because the vehicles owned by the TAAS industry will drive 10 times as many miles per vehicle as the individually owned vehicles. So, you need 10 times fewer of those TAAS owned vehicles.
@@michelangelobuonarroti916 So what happens when large numbers of people call up for a ride a 7:30 to get to work and 5pm to get home? How would TAAS end rush hour traffic?
Jeff Detmer they will increase car number. 1 TAAS will not happpen in one day it will take years so they will know how many car they have to add 2 no more than 5 to 10 % people travel at any given time so they will still have to have 10 to 15% car. given that US has more than 800 car per 1000 people
I am fully with you. However, this disruption will cause big changes in society. You mentioned a few points. But will the people find easy new jobs or will be an economic depression hit some automobile producing countries? Germany for example only VW in my opinion will somehow survive. Mercedes and BMW could disappear like Nokia I am afraid.
How does his model deal with rush hour demand? And how would on-demand cars reduce traffic congestion? How would the system deal with high demand days ie. Thanksgiving, Christmas, 4th July, etc.?
Sure. The car would drop the kids to school & you to work, no problem. Or a car will pick other kids up on the way to school, no problem. Or the car could pick up work colleagues on the way to work, no problem. Peace Jeff.
@@petersparks7363 Nobody wants to carpool besides you don't need driverless cars to do that. All efforts to get people in the US to carpool on a large-scale have been abject failures
You answered this yourself. It doesnt have to be on a large scale. You may just find that a family can use just 1 car, then it drives home. Double peace.
I think most of this talk is exactly to the point, very interesting and important. I'm not confident that autonomous driving is mostly about computing power, or simulation, but I'll let that rest. My main concern is when Seba says that we don't need government, he assumes that we won't figure out other ways to use that oil. At $25, I'm pretty sure new ways of using that oil will emerge unless governments step in and say "sorry, we can't let that happen". Supersonic passenger transport comes to mind. If we let that happen on fossil fuels, it could quickly cancel the effect of clean disruption. We still need government to step in and prevent that.
dude, honestly f*ck the governments, cheap electric passenger flights are going to destroy any fossil fuel dinosaur crap without the corrupt idiots with power.
Good insights about back to the future. Thanks for the presentation about technology disruption, saving money not spent on gas and reduced carbon dioxide emissions.
We'll need to dump away the whole old school economy system and embrace a post-capitalist economy this next decade - Tony has hardly mentioned a revolution in AI in this talk (which was not the topic here) which is also about to happen and will cause a huge disruption by itself.
He should give some credit to Ray Kurzweil who has been saying similar things for decades and has an amazing track record at predicting the emergence of disruptive technologies.
@@FrancFern1 Tony Seba in 2018: From 2%, we need 6 more doublings for solar to be 100% of our energy. Ray Kurzweil at Google in 2009: Price performance of solar is increasing exponentially and should be roughly at parity with fossil by 2013 (was off by 2 years or so). Solar power production is doubling every two years, which less than 10 doublings to meet all the world's energy needs. The talk is here: ruclips.net/video/43zo82W7aPI/видео.html
Capatalism will save itself, is the message to corporate investors. If you have money and want to make more, go into EV and solar. If I were a capitalist, I would have Tony Seba on the payroll. Disruption? S-curves? Sure. Look at the accumulation of wealth winthin the top 1%, the increasing poverty, and global warming. We're at the clipping point right now. Following Tony Seba's line of thought, the solution would be coroporate investment in solar powered airco. There's another unsubsidized disruption in the making: the people who are not going to take it anymore.
So it goes for autonomous cars? So it goes for everything else in our world today. The 20's are going to be more disruptive to our social/economic/political model than the 1st industrial era was to the Feudal system that collapsed from it. Capitalism was born out of the ashes of that transition. It will not survive the next transition.
Actually aviation now compared to decades ago is a great example of what will become of manual driving cars, you will need good expensive insurance, harder to get licences, specific fuels and mix in some terrorism regulations and you have a hard to access but not impossible to access industry for on-road use, off-road (especially private property) should still be mostly un-regulated.
37:09 autonomous vehicle disruption - Waymo Lidar-based systems operating within geofenced areas in sunny southern climes - a year before Tesla self-driving chip, no-Lidar robotaxi announcement, moving into TaaS space, with hopes for real-world rollout by 2020.
If oil prices start to go down, then so will gas and diesel. In that case, the transition toward electric cars may be a bit slower than what Tony Seba suggests. After all, the high gas prices at the pump are a factor in the consideration of whether or not to buy an electric car. Also keep in mind that with higher EV prevalence, there will be more demand on electricity and thus, higher electricity prices, requiring more power plants. (There are some places where even roof solar panels are not yet economical and might not be even in the 2020s, as some homes have several natural gas appliances.) So.... Seba's estimates for EV adoption may be a bit sooner than what really happens.
Stalemate IB If people start transitioning to electric, gas will not be cheaper. Well, it will be for a very very short time at first. But it takes billions to pump that stuff out of earth, ship it, refine it, ship it again so many oil producers (fracking for example) will not be profitable and will go away. So there will naturally be less supply driving prices up. Saudis are probably going to be okay for a bit. Russia and Canada not so much when it comes to oil dollars.
Well, I get your point here, Dmitri. There is only so far down that the price of oil would go. It depends largely on the rates of change in demand vs. rates of change in supply, and yes, those ways of supplying oil that become unprofitable at a particular oil price will stop producing oil. But I think that the transition toward electric cars may nonetheless not go as quickly as Seba thinks.
Listen to what history has to say, 12 to 13 years. That is how long it will take. The question that needs answering is the start date??? Already started? Still to start? Which is it? My 2 cents, we have started and 1 maybe 2 years into this disruptive cycle. Home infrastructure in place and now can't wait to buy my first electric vehicle. Bring on the future.
Tony Seba started rudimentary versions of this presentation in 2010, possibly earlier. In 2010 he was predicting about an 8% decline in battery cost each year and expected a price of approximately $450 /kWh in 2018. As of November 2018 UBS, who are typically sceptical, priced the Tesla cell at $113 /kWh. It should be at $100 in the first quarter of 2019. Also remember it's not just an upward curve for evs it's a downward curve for ice vehicles as were seeing in the declining sales of certain well-known manufacturers when competing with the Tesla models.
It's a truth, that I assume, the disruption, in less than a decade, of ICE automobiles. But petrol will fuel ships (in wich, by the way, are those components of EV and AV transported from China, for instance) and planes still next decade and beyond i guess. And that is an important quantity to import from those countries the US "patrols", as Seba says. Of course i buy the idea of clean, free of congestion cities. But things are not that plain. I would be delighted to hear Seba on those two matters, air and water transportation
Disruption is already happening in every single way of transportation, just look at the new orders of electric ferries in Scandinavia or mass transportation like all the thousands of new electric busses being deployed around the world from Proterra to BYD and many others like electric land mowers and other appliances that normally are equipped with small two stroke ice... it’s happening much faster than anticipated.
+ Electric planes do already exist. If batteries decrease in density again it will become feasible in a not so far away future. I have already seen talks about electric planes being more efficient due to slimmer wings and smaller motors.
Boats can be electrified pretty easily, you already have companies starting doing that, and on the luxury market you have solar boats that produce more as they can use. Simply a matter of math and economy to know at some point container ships will be electrified, can happen very soon actually, my window of expectation would be 2025-2035 (probably more near 2035). But Tony Seba said oil demand would drop from 100 mill barrels a day to 70 mill barrels a day, so he left a lot of room for those sectors he doesn't expect to have switched over by 2030. Aviation already has small electric planes, especially used for training as they are so much cheaper in use. A prediction here is harder because it depends on energy density of batteries, a alternative you hear a lot is Hydrogen fuel for planes, once solar and wind make up for most the electricity there will be times where energy is pretty much sold at 0, so storing it in the form of hydrogen is always a option. But with crashed oil prices, there will be no high pressure economically for these 2 sectors to switch over. Eventually electric will drop costs of air and water transportation too, but it is further out so harder to predict (And this probably means it happens sooner as anyone expects now, because massive investments in electrification will spur technological advancements all over the board even where nobody expects it.)
@@sergerijkenberg7470 As I understand it: all the big ships, containerships, freight trains, etc. are actually all electric and so are some types of the biggest trucks. They generate electricity with diesel and the real engine is actually an electric motor, it's called the 'diesel-electric transmission' or 'diesel-electric powertrain'.
Al Chile namas estoy aquí por una tarea, Tiene mucha razón este men pero El hecho de que la tecnología seguirá siendo para la gente con mayores recursos económicos, eso jamas va a cambiar, por culpa del consumismo y de como los empresarios aprovechan esto para hacerse mas ricos y hacer mas pobres a los de escasos recursos. Hasta aquí mi reporte Joaquin
Otto cars are 5-10% city and 15-20% highway, average 13.5%. Electric car motors are as said, but the battery costs 19%, so the plug to wheel efficiency is 60-75% according to Tesla data I have seen. 75%/20%=3.75. Highway and 60/10= 6 city 3.75 to 6 times is actual. My new engine can beat electric and be par in efficiency, plus many other advantages. The question then is this: Is not an old 4 wheel car also outdated? Flying is the future due to road tax, tires and brakes. Road tax is the grid charge equivalent and tires are the major cost. Flying fuel becomes less than road costs. Flying will be cheaper than driving.
I drive an EV. My old Honda used to cost me about $120/ month for fuel. My Leaf is costing me less than $40/month. That is not including all of the money I no longer need to spend on tuneups, oil changes, transmissions, exhaust, Even the brakes last 20x as long. New Solid state batteries now being commerciallized by all the major players will be the death of the gasoline car. 10x the lifespan. 3x the energy capacity. Charge in under 10 minutes and can never freeze nor explode. No more cobalt and precious metals, 1/3 the cost of lithium to manufacture and easily adopted on exiting manufacturing lines with minimum retooling. Samsung plans it for phones next year and I know of 5 car manufacturers aiming for 2022.
@@davefroman4700 Did you even read my post? That $40/month is not including road tax and battery costs. Yes, old Otto engines are not great, but my new engine is much better than EV. No transmission either....
@@seaplaneguy1 There is no way that your new engine is better or more efficient than an electric motor - physics dictates that it is just not thermodynamically possible. An Alaskan airline is converting all their seaplanes to electric - this should interest you.
@@ahaveland Tesla claims 60% city and 75% highway. My engine will be par to that, plug to wheel (electric) vs pump to wheel. Very possible. Alaskan airline can waste their money. Good luck. They will need it.
@@seaplaneguy1 "Tesla claims 60% city and 75% highway" - Source? EPA gives MPGe of 126 vs 27 mpg for gas: www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=39769 Model 3 motor efficiency is >97%. Model S AC motor efficiency is 93%. Max thermodynamic efficiency of diesel is is 54% at optimum speed, but 45% in practice, and that is 30% more efficient than gasoline. Coal plants and diesel generators operate at close to their maximum efficiencies, so even a model 3 charged by a coal dominant grid is more efficient and produces less emissions than any gasoline car. You are simply wrong. Seriously, anyone buying a new ICE car today will be stuck with a lemon, as they will have almost zero resale value in just a few years.
Agree in pricicple with TaaS, although difficult to see fleet size come down. We still need a clean, reliable and safe energy source to charge EVs with and that is nuclear energy, which is not going away anytime soon if you want to get serious about climate change.
What's going to happen to those 1 bn cars that are on the roads today? Pity no-one talks about it. Right now, I can buy an old 1000-USD junk car and if it gets broken, I'll just buy another cheap one. This will keep the old rattling stinkers on the roads for decades to come (unless governments step in and ban them althogether). And then, if it's so simple to make an EV, I wish these old cars were gradually being converted into EVs - that would give people work and hence autonomy as well as save the environment from plundering it even more. Haven't seen any major automaker do that. Why?
That is only for the first 10 years or so. After that, you might have a few problems. If his predictions come true, cities will start removing parking spaces. Gas stations will go out of business. Car repair shops will disappear. Nobody will make the spare parts. So you will have your $1000 junk car, out of gas in the towing lot and you might have trouble starting the car when you go bail it out because something is broken and you have no way to fix it.
People will convert the frames of some classic cars to electric and autonomous if its cheap and people demand it. However, people are also likely to demand completely new platforms that don't look like cars today, for example, a meeting room or restaurant on wheels. Once all of the cars on the road are robotic and accidents disappear, the shape of vehicles can be completely redesigned.
They will mostly be scrapped. The same reason why you see so few cars from the 70s on the road today. Or typewriters, or VHS machines or old CRT TVs. Obsolete technology disappears very quickly. Even the $1000 beater car will be expensive to fuel, insure, maintain, and park. Your ability to get gas will diminish, your ability to fix it will diminish, the usefulness of the car will diminish as the places you want to go won't have parking and if they to parking your car there will be considerably more expensive than taking the driverless EV uber car. There will be small enthusiast groups and museums which keep them as historical artifacts but by and large the car will come to an end. However, I predict that when somewhere around 70-80% of the voters are using the driverless fleet services that restrictions on drivered cars will start to come up. Certain roads will be AV only, certain hours humans will be banned from driving. These will mostly come from the attitude that the humans on the road are causing the traffic congestion, get them off the road and everything moves faster. But when 70-80% of voters are on one side its next to impossible for a minority to win. Maybe they can buy time but they won't win.
I dispute the 10% car trade-in figure @20:10. I think people are selling old cars to carmax etc. and buying used cars of lower value. I don't think 10% of u.s. drivers per year are not buying personal cars. Most people i know have so many cars they are giving the old ones away!
There is a Climate Crisis. We need Climate Action. Individuals, politicians and corporations need to step up and reduce fossil fuel use. Go solar, buy an electric car, make your home or business more energy efficient.
NO COMPETETION Electric scooter 5/- Rupees per charge - 100+ Km + Clean & Green. Vs Petrol Scooter 100/- Rupees per ltr - 50 km + Air & Noise pollution. Electric mobility is toooo big an oppurtunity. Never in one's life time such a fantastic grand oppurtunity can come second time. We should be all grateful & thankful to Our God's for putting us in the right place at the right time. Any entrepreneur should grab it with both hand. Imagine being in a country with world's max number of two wheelers & now they all have to all be 100% replaced in next 4 years. It can't get bigger. The pies so huge that it's on one's own capicity to claim as much. Nothing could be better for people who want to do something with sky's as your only limit. Lot of people ask me how.....Nothing will change in your life if you don't do something different from what you've been doing. The real game of numbers........ mind boggling. Two wheelers monthly sales in India is appx Fifty Lac vehicles new & pre-owned. Per day it's works out to 1.2 lac vehicles sold daily. That's a turnover of 700-900 crores rupees or 10-12 millions usd daily. Incredible India!!! Most people focus on the wrong thing; They focus on the result, not the process. The process is the sacrifice, it's all the hard parts; the trust, the sweat, the pain, the tears, the losses. *You make the sacrifices any way. You learn to enjoy them, or at least embrace them.* In the end it is the sacrifices that must fulfill you. Everyone wants to predict the future--But one can only "guess", the truth only time has the power to show.!!! Though "Nothing can stop an idea whose time has come" & rest assured "It is not the strongest that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change." & It's team work with dedication passion & focus.. We at Rissala - Evolet stand strongly behind the Government for this push to electric mobility & do our bit to make it a success. The greatness of a company is not in how much wealth it acquires, but in its integrity & its ability to affect the people & enviornment around positively. _Ever Grateful to the Indian Army, Cavalry & the Horses!!!_ It's important to Dream big. Make a Bindass Passionate team & get down to Action!! *Waafadari, Junoon aur Wishwaas* _Agar hai toh aur kuch ho na ho faraq nahi padta, aur yeh nahi hai toh aur kuch bhi ho faraq nahi padta._ *Loyalty, Passion & Trust -* _If these qualities are there, then nothing else matters, & if not there, then anything else does not matter._ Ally. www.evoletindia.com. _What would you attempt to do if you knew you would not fail?_ www.evoletindia.com.
All that energy that is used by oil cars needs to be filled up by electric energy, where do you think that huge gap will come from? They will have to supply that electric energy by either using oil and transform it into electricity or new less efficient emerging energy technologies.
@@user-to2rf1rj5v, In addition China has started work on solar stations in space with power being beamed down to the surface by microwave. First station launch aimed for 2021.
oops! I guess tony never studied history. he makes the mistake of calling the car a technology disruption. he needs to learn about the great horse manure crisis of 1894. the car (in NYC) was the solution to a crisis, which is VERY different than a disruption.
The situation was a crisis for the urban commuter but for the horse breeder it was a financial jackpot. Accordingly one person's crisis is another person's cash flow. Thus the cancellation of one person's crisis can be the generation of another person's disruption...
He makes same mistakes that all who have believed in that technology will save mankind in someway have done. Poor people will always be poor and not have access to this next new thing how cheap it ever might be. Poor will get poorer and rich richer. Some may switch position but the fact remains. But this misstake has been made by many smart people over the centuries.
Unless there is an economic disruption: the Universal Basic Income where the money produced by the upcoming very advanced AI that will take our jobs is shared between everybody. But history told us that the money and power were controlled by small individuals yes, so it could make the huge majority poor.
This isn't true, when technology becomes cheap the poor people get it as well as the rich. Its why you would expect to see poor people own a cell phone today. The ride sharing services that the presenter mentions will be drastically cheaper than owning a car today so poor people will have access to that as well. The poor of the world are going to definitely become richer with this technology.
Thanks for your latest keynote. I've been watching (and read your book) your keynotes for some time and several times in evolving versions and it's always a pleasure of enlightenment. And it makes me very optimistic and curious about the near future. I'm very thankful that I will witness this epic energy-revolution.
Thank you for sharing your great work Tony!
Tony Seba indicated 5 Clean Disruption of Energy & Transportation:
.
1. Batteries.
2. Electric Vehicles.
3. Autonomous Vehicles.
4. Ride-Hailing.
5. Solar.
I wondered which company has all five disruption covered????
.
Hmmm....
.
Spot on. Well done Tony. Thank you for your insights and leadership on these issues.
Why hasn't this video gotten more views?
People resist change.
Thank you so much Mr. Tony Seba. Impressive lecture to all !!
Price pressures on oil and refineries from electric vehicles somewhat explains the FUD being written about Tesla.
The rest is from the ancillary businesses: ICE parts suppliers, ICE dealerships, quick lube franchises, and people with large amounts of money invested in these companies. EVs - and Tesla is the driving force behind EVs - represent an existential threat to these companies, and they're not going to let a little thing like the truth stop them from disparaging Tesla.
@Rick Deegan (F)ear (U)ncertainty (D)oubt ; basically a campaign to create a disinformation campaign to slow or halt the progress of something.
Best hopeful news I have heard for the future in a long time. I do hope that by 2021 the oil consumption does drop that drastically for a multitude of reasons. Just 3 more years to hold on.
An amazing presentation. For the first time as I followed the oil/gas hoopla, I get it. The wave is coming!
Last year Li-ion dropped 24% in price
Tony. Any thoughts on Tesla in particular? A video based on Tesla's Autonomy Day driving would be greatly appreciated. Thank you for this video
John Torri 👍
First time I have heard a great speaker giving the logic of calculations as being so important - Trump seen it? Thankyou Tony.
As always, an excellent video! Great update.
Best presentation I've seen of this so far. Keep up the good work! I'm sending this around to all my friends :)
Soon the price of solar will be less than the transmission of electric,
Some of the software advances coming in telepresence combined with AR eyewear (or even just using old fashion mobile devices, etc) will add to the auto driving services and allow professional workers (maybe other types as well) to effectively start their shift once they get into the car and end their shift when they get out after returning home for the day, allowing them to live 2-3 hours easily from a town or city (Cities like Sydney in Australia with not so good public transport and inflated (part government policy, part market conditions) house prices will benefit greatly and other cities and towns that are in a similar situation).
Tony add 5G cell service for self driving cars needs to be added into your speech. Faster data downloaded to the cars for the latest data on roads and other cars talking to each other.
Hey Tony. Could you publish your Slides? Thank you
They should also note that when fleets replace personal cars, during peak hours of demand like morning or evening, prices to transport might go up quite a lot. During the day it will definitely be cheaper but peak hours and amount of people traveling don't change and you still need those cars available.
I wondered that too...how does his model deal with rush hour demand. And how would on-demand cars reduce traffic congestion? How would the system deal with high demand days ie. Thanksgiving, Christmas, 4th July, etc.?
well imagine only if each car with 5 seats will be fully occupied, how many cars u will remove from trafic??.I deal with traffic every day at 5:30am and i find it stupid how a waste of energy , time , space is the daily driving with 1 person in each car.
I think fleets can manage peak hours with different size of cars, it needs to start and then will develop solutions once they are moving on.Our life style needs to change period.
@Cristian Yeah that's a good argument. Most people who go to work by car themselges might only occupy one seat, could easily fit few in one car.
Sure. The car would drop the kids to school & you to work, no problem. Or a car will pick other kids up on the way to school, no problem. Or the car could pick up work colleagues on the way to work, no problem.
Good work Tony. Spot on .One point if the electricity going to be so cheap i think people will partly hang on to their electric vehicles so vehicle ownership will not die that soon.
Dyson left the game in 2019, but agreed - others will follow...interesting vid!
How will this affect residential real estate in urban and suburban US? If urban centers are built up that will mean more supply than demand, so will quality housing become cheaper downtown? Since people will be autonomously driven from suburbia to downtown will that mean more people will move away from city centers? Will prices in both urban and suburban areas cool down?
Most downtowns are in an absolute housing crises right now. This could allow the development which could pop in and make the prices more affordable.
Great work. I've seen this sort of trend forecasted by other very smart people too, from different perspectives. I stand convinced, and more so now, thanks to this lecture. I am a little skeptical though about a possible traffic heaven so soon. Most of us are still commuting at the same time. So, unless we start using individual short narrow track vehicles (twizzy like), congested we'll remain.
There is plenty of room on the roads now. Humans can't make a deal with a car 20 cars ahead to reduce congestion ( you go through light I am turning right). Add in a few less cars. And once congestion drops it drops faster as you spend less time on the road you spend less time on the road. The transition will not be pretty though.
NTS. Note To Self.
Disruption starts at 10X.
😍😍😍
I thought it was at the age when we came to know xxx
It makes me wander what effect these trends will have on the American dollar that is propped up by oil? The effect could be harsh and deep.
Ah!
Another one who gets it!
It's not just because the American dollar is propped up by oil.
think of it in the same way Tony Seba does
It's a disruption.
It's a convergence of various. circumstances.
If the US economy is declining, even domestically, because they're stuck in the cycle, other economies, even those of "third world countries" around the world will be investing and benefiting from the green power revolution.
A good example is Morocco, who are in the process of constructing solar facilities that may, within a few years, have sufficient power for the whole of Europe(!)
If the project is completed and deals are done Morocco becomes an "energy superpower"
Disruption!
You can effectively apply this to many of the equatorial countries (who are quite often poor) but have a relative abundance of sunshine and often a lot of wind.
It seems logical to me that the smart "first world powers" of today would be investing not only in their own infrastructure but that of these countries to benefit from the construction and ongoing power supply.
Strangely enough, China appears to be doing just that.
Of course once these projects come to fruition they will have not only excess money but excess power with which they can invest in clean transport systems.
It's also been noted in Morocco that installation of these solar and wind facilities actually makes slight changes to the climate that increasing rainfall, great if you're in a desert!
In the same way that the progress of EV's will be matched by the decline of fossil vehicles, doubling the speed of transition, the the power supply transition could happen extremely quickly.
@@rogerstarkey5390 I am not sure if disruption is a strong enough word.
The simple solution would be to mandate registration for alternative energy apparatuses and then to use the registration fees to create a demand for the American dollar that backs the value thereof. Indeed American alternative energy corporations can be forced to pay for the registration of all equipment, even that in foreign countries so long as they are headquartered or even do business in the United States. If foreign alternative energy companies are treated likewise by their governments and if these merge with American companies, then the result would be multinational alternative energy corporations backing multiple national currencies through the payment of registration fees...
Hi Hidden, sorry i'm late. The more simple solution.... when solar is cheaper direct, than transmitting ANY electricity (including solar), there's no need for a grid....
Oil gone = petrol dollar gone. That will change everything including the forecast made in this lecture.
and no wars in the middle east.
@@onomatopoeia162003 yeah!!!
Just hope it doesn't turn in a war for water.
Wars for water are the hard way to get water. The presenter showcases how solar effectively doubles every 2 years and will reach 100% by around 2030. The growth will still continue though and the total output will continue to double every two years, one of those uses can be providing energy for massive desalination plants.
Its way cheaper to build lots of absurdly cheap solar and desalination plants and just straight up convert ocean water to fresh water than it is to go to war and try to 'take' water. The cost of war is incredible and if people have a super cheap option to water they sure as hell won't go to war over it.
Dec 2023 battery price hit 136usd/ kwh
NO COMPETETION
Electric scooter 5/- Rupees per charge - 100+ Km + Clean & Green.
Vs
Petrol Scooter 100/- Rupees per ltr - 50 km + Air & Noise pollution.
Electric mobility is toooo big an oppurtunity. Never in one's life time such a fantastic grand oppurtunity can come second time. We should be all grateful & thankful to Our God's for putting us in the right place at the right time.
Any entrepreneur should grab it with both hand. Imagine being in a country with world's max number of two wheelers & now they all have to all be 100% replaced in next 4 years.
It can't get bigger. The pies so huge that it's on one's own capicity to claim as much. Nothing could be better for people who want to do something with sky's as your only limit. Lot of people ask me how.....Nothing will change in your life if you don't do something different from what you've been doing.
The real game of numbers........ mind boggling.
Two wheelers monthly sales in India is appx Fifty Lac vehicles new & pre-owned.
Per day it's works out to 1.2 lac vehicles sold daily. That's a turnover of 700-900 crores rupees or 10-12 millions usd daily. Incredible India!!!
Most people focus on the wrong thing; They focus on the result, not the process.
The process is the sacrifice, it's all the hard parts; the trust, the sweat, the pain, the tears, the losses.
*You make the sacrifices any way. You learn to enjoy them, or at least embrace them.*
In the end it is the sacrifices that must fulfill you.
Everyone wants to predict the future--But one can only "guess", the truth only time has the power to show.!!!
Though "Nothing can stop an idea whose time has come" & rest assured "It is not the strongest that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change." & It's team work with dedication passion & focus.. We at Rissala - Evolet stand strongly behind the Government for this push to electric mobility & do our bit to make it a success.
The greatness of a company is not in how much wealth it acquires, but in its integrity & its ability to affect the people & enviornment around positively. _Ever Grateful to the Indian Army, Cavalry & the Horses!!!_
It's important to Dream big. Make a Bindass Passionate team & get down to Action!!
*Waafadari, Junoon aur Wishwaas*
_Agar hai toh aur kuch ho na ho faraq nahi padta, aur yeh nahi hai toh aur kuch bhi ho faraq nahi padta._
*Loyalty, Passion & Trust -*
_If these qualities are there, then nothing else matters, & if not there, then anything else does not matter._
Ally.
www.evoletindia.com.
_What would you attempt to do if you knew you would not fail?_
www.evoletindia.com.
Even with autonomous vehicles and uber business model, supply still needs to meet peak demand which dictates the fleet size. I am not sure how the fleet size can come down in the next decade or so.
The fleet comes down because the vehicles owned by the TAAS industry will drive 10 times as many miles per vehicle as the individually owned vehicles. So, you need 10 times fewer of those TAAS owned vehicles.
@@michelangelobuonarroti916 So what happens when large numbers of people call up for a ride a 7:30 to get to work and 5pm to get home? How would TAAS end rush hour traffic?
Jeff Detmer they will increase car number.
1 TAAS will not happpen in one day it will take years so they will know how many car they have to add
2 no more than 5 to 10 % people travel at any given time so they will still have to have 10 to 15% car. given that US has more than 800 car per 1000 people
Always inspiring your lectures!!!
I am fully with you. However, this disruption will cause big changes in society. You mentioned a few points. But will the people find easy new jobs or will be an economic depression hit some automobile producing countries?
Germany for example only VW in my opinion will somehow survive. Mercedes and BMW could disappear like Nokia I am afraid.
Think about millions of lives EVs are going to save. It's the way to the better place anyway
Amazing speech, thank you Sir.
How does his model deal with rush hour demand? And how would on-demand cars reduce traffic congestion? How would the system deal with high demand days ie. Thanksgiving, Christmas, 4th July, etc.?
This is the bigger Problem with his prediction: in a stated region 90% of the cars are used only during 3/24 hours.
Take a look on - The Boring Componay - .
Sure. The car would drop the kids to school & you to work, no problem. Or a car will pick other kids up on the way to school, no problem. Or the car could pick up work colleagues on the way to work, no problem.
Peace Jeff.
@@petersparks7363 Nobody wants to carpool besides you don't need driverless cars to do that. All efforts to get people in the US to carpool on a large-scale have been abject failures
You answered this yourself. It doesnt have to be on a large scale. You may just find that a family can use just 1 car, then it drives home. Double peace.
I think most of this talk is exactly to the point, very interesting and important. I'm not confident that autonomous driving is mostly about computing power, or simulation, but I'll let that rest. My main concern is when Seba says that we don't need government, he assumes that we won't figure out other ways to use that oil. At $25, I'm pretty sure new ways of using that oil will emerge unless governments step in and say "sorry, we can't let that happen". Supersonic passenger transport comes to mind. If we let that happen on fossil fuels, it could quickly cancel the effect of clean disruption. We still need government to step in and prevent that.
dude, honestly f*ck the governments, cheap electric passenger flights are going to destroy any fossil fuel dinosaur crap without the corrupt idiots with power.
will more investment in battery tech increase the cost reduction pace
love the red tie. keep up the good work been following your work for a few years now. you should get nobel prize
Good insights about back to the future. Thanks for the presentation about technology disruption, saving money not spent on gas and reduced carbon dioxide emissions.
We'll need to dump away the whole old school economy system and embrace a post-capitalist economy this next decade - Tony has hardly mentioned a revolution in AI in this talk (which was not the topic here) which is also about to happen and will cause a huge disruption by itself.
There is no revolution in AI. What we have now is a system of pattern recognition based on large sets of data. It's not intelligent in any way..
God bless you Tony sir.
If this scenario actually does play out a basic income or some sort of citizens dividend will have to be implemented.
He should give some credit to Ray Kurzweil who has been saying similar things for decades and has an amazing track record at predicting the emergence of disruptive technologies.
Could you please give a link or source?
@@FrancFern1 Tony Seba in 2018: From 2%, we need 6 more doublings for solar to be 100% of our energy.
Ray Kurzweil at Google in 2009: Price performance of solar is increasing exponentially and should be roughly at parity with fossil by 2013 (was off by 2 years or so). Solar power production is doubling every two years, which less than 10 doublings to meet all the world's energy needs. The talk is here: ruclips.net/video/43zo82W7aPI/видео.html
Capatalism will save itself, is the message to corporate investors. If you have money and want to make more, go into EV and solar. If I were a capitalist, I would have Tony Seba on the payroll. Disruption? S-curves? Sure. Look at the accumulation of wealth winthin the top 1%, the increasing poverty, and global warming. We're at the clipping point right now. Following Tony Seba's line of thought, the solution would be coroporate investment in solar powered airco. There's another unsubsidized disruption in the making: the people who are not going to take it anymore.
What happens to the people who make their living by driving?
Unemployment rates will skyrocket. That's why the talk of a guaranteed salary is gaining traction.
So it goes for autonomous cars? So it goes for everything else in our world today. The 20's are going to be more disruptive to our social/economic/political model than the 1st industrial era was to the Feudal system that collapsed from it. Capitalism was born out of the ashes of that transition. It will not survive the next transition.
Same thing that happened to people who stabled horses for a living.
52:13 what does it mean "IO vehicles"?
I guess it means "individual ownership".
Drive a model3 for 50 years 1 great car for life.....hmmm this is bad how?
What about aviation?
Aviation is coming, electric planes already exist. Not for intercontinental just yet but it will happen eventually.
There is also that idea from spaceX. If they are right about it costing somewhere between business and cattle class...
Actually aviation now compared to decades ago is a great example of what will become of manual driving cars, you will need good expensive insurance, harder to get licences, specific fuels and mix in some terrorism regulations and you have a hard to access but not impossible to access industry for on-road use, off-road (especially private property) should still be mostly un-regulated.
37:09 autonomous vehicle disruption - Waymo Lidar-based systems operating within geofenced areas in sunny southern climes - a year before Tesla self-driving chip, no-Lidar robotaxi announcement, moving into TaaS space, with hopes for real-world rollout by 2020.
It's gonna be fun to look at this in a few years and think how delusional we were
Do you mean conservative?
If oil prices start to go down, then so will gas and diesel. In that case, the transition toward electric cars may be a bit slower than what Tony Seba suggests. After all, the high gas prices at the pump are a factor in the consideration of whether or not to buy an electric car. Also keep in mind that with higher EV prevalence, there will be more demand on electricity and thus, higher electricity prices, requiring more power plants. (There are some places where even roof solar panels are not yet economical and might not be even in the 2020s, as some homes have several natural gas appliances.) So.... Seba's estimates for EV adoption may be a bit sooner than what really happens.
Stalemate IB If people start transitioning to electric, gas will not be cheaper. Well, it will be for a very very short time at first. But it takes billions to pump that stuff out of earth, ship it, refine it, ship it again so many oil producers (fracking for example) will not be profitable and will go away. So there will naturally be less supply driving prices up. Saudis are probably going to be okay for a bit. Russia and Canada not so much when it comes to oil dollars.
Well, I get your point here, Dmitri. There is only so far down that the price of oil would go. It depends largely on the rates of change in demand vs. rates of change in supply, and yes, those ways of supplying oil that become unprofitable at a particular oil price will stop producing oil. But I think that the transition toward electric cars may nonetheless not go as quickly as Seba thinks.
Listen to what history has to say, 12 to 13 years. That is how long it will take.
The question that needs answering is the start date???
Already started? Still to start? Which is it?
My 2 cents, we have started and 1 maybe 2 years into this disruptive cycle. Home infrastructure in place and now can't wait to buy my first electric vehicle.
Bring on the future.
@@DmitriGoncharov
Note that the Saudis are transitioning to clean energy themselves!
Tony Seba started rudimentary versions of this presentation in 2010, possibly earlier.
In 2010 he was predicting about an 8% decline in battery cost each year and expected a price of approximately $450 /kWh in 2018.
As of November 2018 UBS, who are typically sceptical, priced the Tesla cell at $113 /kWh. It should be at $100 in the first quarter of 2019.
Also remember it's not just an upward curve for evs it's a downward curve for ice vehicles as were seeing in the declining sales of certain well-known manufacturers when competing with the Tesla models.
It's a truth, that I assume, the disruption, in less than a decade, of ICE automobiles. But petrol will fuel ships (in wich, by the way, are those components of EV and AV transported from China, for instance) and planes still next decade and beyond i guess. And that is an important quantity to import from those countries the US "patrols", as Seba says. Of course i buy the idea of clean, free of congestion cities. But things are not that plain. I would be delighted to hear Seba on those two matters, air and water transportation
Disruption is already happening in every single way of transportation, just look at the new orders of electric ferries in Scandinavia or mass transportation like all the thousands of new electric busses being deployed around the world from Proterra to BYD and many others like electric land mowers and other appliances that normally are equipped with small two stroke ice... it’s happening much faster than anticipated.
+ Electric planes do already exist. If batteries decrease in density again it will become feasible in a not so far away future. I have already seen talks about electric planes being more efficient due to slimmer wings and smaller motors.
Boats can be electrified pretty easily, you already have companies starting doing that, and on the luxury market you have solar boats that produce more as they can use. Simply a matter of math and economy to know at some point container ships will be electrified, can happen very soon actually, my window of expectation would be 2025-2035 (probably more near 2035). But Tony Seba said oil demand would drop from 100 mill barrels a day to 70 mill barrels a day, so he left a lot of room for those sectors he doesn't expect to have switched over by 2030.
Aviation already has small electric planes, especially used for training as they are so much cheaper in use. A prediction here is harder because it depends on energy density of batteries, a alternative you hear a lot is Hydrogen fuel for planes, once solar and wind make up for most the electricity there will be times where energy is pretty much sold at 0, so storing it in the form of hydrogen is always a option.
But with crashed oil prices, there will be no high pressure economically for these 2 sectors to switch over. Eventually electric will drop costs of air and water transportation too, but it is further out so harder to predict (And this probably means it happens sooner as anyone expects now, because massive investments in electrification will spur technological advancements all over the board even where nobody expects it.)
@@sergerijkenberg7470 As I understand it: all the big ships, containerships, freight trains, etc. are actually all electric and so are some types of the biggest trucks. They generate electricity with diesel and the real engine is actually an electric motor, it's called the 'diesel-electric transmission' or 'diesel-electric powertrain'.
Al Chile namas estoy aquí por una tarea, Tiene mucha razón este men pero El hecho de que la tecnología seguirá siendo para la gente con mayores recursos económicos, eso jamas va a cambiar, por culpa del consumismo y de como los empresarios aprovechan esto para hacerse mas ricos y hacer mas pobres a los de escasos recursos. Hasta aquí mi reporte Joaquin
Google smartphone 1997? What are you talking about Google was launched in 1998. Also the iphone was $500 not $700
Otto cars are 5-10% city and 15-20% highway, average 13.5%. Electric car motors are as said, but the battery costs 19%, so the plug to wheel efficiency is 60-75% according to Tesla data I have seen. 75%/20%=3.75. Highway and 60/10= 6 city 3.75 to 6 times is actual. My new engine can beat electric and be par in efficiency, plus many other advantages. The question then is this: Is not an old 4 wheel car also outdated? Flying is the future due to road tax, tires and brakes. Road tax is the grid charge equivalent and tires are the major cost. Flying fuel becomes less than road costs. Flying will be cheaper than driving.
I drive an EV. My old Honda used to cost me about $120/ month for fuel. My Leaf is costing me less than $40/month. That is not including all of the money I no longer need to spend on tuneups, oil changes, transmissions, exhaust, Even the brakes last 20x as long. New Solid state batteries now being commerciallized by all the major players will be the death of the gasoline car. 10x the lifespan. 3x the energy capacity. Charge in under 10 minutes and can never freeze nor explode. No more cobalt and precious metals, 1/3 the cost of lithium to manufacture and easily adopted on exiting manufacturing lines with minimum retooling. Samsung plans it for phones next year and I know of 5 car manufacturers aiming for 2022.
@@davefroman4700 Did you even read my post? That $40/month is not including road tax and battery costs. Yes, old Otto engines are not great, but my new engine is much better than EV. No transmission either....
@@seaplaneguy1 There is no way that your new engine is better or more efficient than an electric motor - physics dictates that it is just not thermodynamically possible.
An Alaskan airline is converting all their seaplanes to electric - this should interest you.
@@ahaveland Tesla claims 60% city and 75% highway. My engine will be par to that, plug to wheel (electric) vs pump to wheel. Very possible. Alaskan airline can waste their money. Good luck. They will need it.
@@seaplaneguy1 "Tesla claims 60% city and 75% highway" - Source?
EPA gives MPGe of 126 vs 27 mpg for gas: www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=39769
Model 3 motor efficiency is >97%.
Model S AC motor efficiency is 93%.
Max thermodynamic efficiency of diesel is is 54% at optimum speed, but 45% in practice, and that is 30% more efficient than gasoline.
Coal plants and diesel generators operate at close to their maximum efficiencies, so even a model 3 charged by a coal dominant grid is more efficient and produces less emissions than any gasoline car.
You are simply wrong.
Seriously, anyone buying a new ICE car today will be stuck with a lemon, as they will have almost zero resale value in just a few years.
So oil wars will switch to lithium wars, or some other resource needed to assemble batteries.
Lithium can be easily recycled. Oil, not so much.
Not any more than we have iron ore wars.
thisblowsmymind.com/hemp-batteries-are-even-more-powerful-than-lithium-and-graphene-new-study-shows/
Agree in pricicple with TaaS, although difficult to see fleet size come down. We still need a clean, reliable and safe energy source to charge EVs with and that is nuclear energy, which is not going away anytime soon if you want to get serious about climate change.
Didn't you watch till the end? He covered how to power the cars (and everything else)
Nuclear is gone. Period. Check out the WNISR 2019 report and you will know why.
But all things that further is uncertain
Very interesting.
What's going to happen to those 1 bn cars that are on the roads today? Pity no-one talks about it. Right now, I can buy an old 1000-USD junk car and if it gets broken, I'll just buy another cheap one. This will keep the old rattling stinkers on the roads for decades to come (unless governments step in and ban them althogether). And then, if it's so simple to make an EV, I wish these old cars were gradually being converted into EVs - that would give people work and hence autonomy as well as save the environment from plundering it even more. Haven't seen any major automaker do that. Why?
That is only for the first 10 years or so. After that, you might have a few problems. If his predictions come true, cities will start removing parking spaces. Gas stations will go out of business. Car repair shops will disappear. Nobody will make the spare parts. So you will have your $1000 junk car, out of gas in the towing lot and you might have trouble starting the car when you go bail it out because something is broken and you have no way to fix it.
People will convert the frames of some classic cars to electric and autonomous if its cheap and people demand it. However, people are also likely to demand completely new platforms that don't look like cars today, for example, a meeting room or restaurant on wheels. Once all of the cars on the road are robotic and accidents disappear, the shape of vehicles can be completely redesigned.
They will mostly be scrapped. The same reason why you see so few cars from the 70s on the road today. Or typewriters, or VHS machines or old CRT TVs. Obsolete technology disappears very quickly. Even the $1000 beater car will be expensive to fuel, insure, maintain, and park. Your ability to get gas will diminish, your ability to fix it will diminish, the usefulness of the car will diminish as the places you want to go won't have parking and if they to parking your car there will be considerably more expensive than taking the driverless EV uber car. There will be small enthusiast groups and museums which keep them as historical artifacts but by and large the car will come to an end.
However, I predict that when somewhere around 70-80% of the voters are using the driverless fleet services that restrictions on drivered cars will start to come up. Certain roads will be AV only, certain hours humans will be banned from driving. These will mostly come from the attitude that the humans on the road are causing the traffic congestion, get them off the road and everything moves faster. But when 70-80% of voters are on one side its next to impossible for a minority to win. Maybe they can buy time but they won't win.
I dispute the 10% car trade-in figure @20:10. I think people are selling old cars to carmax etc. and buying used cars of lower value. I don't think 10% of u.s. drivers per year are not buying personal cars. Most people i know have so many cars they are giving the old ones away!
He said that 10% of the people who sold cars didn't buy new ones. He is not talking about everyone but only those people who sold cars.
55:00
There is a Climate Crisis. We need Climate Action.
Individuals, politicians and corporations need to step up and reduce fossil fuel use.
Go solar, buy an electric car, make your home or business more energy efficient.
Agreed! Stop analyzing - start acting, everybody! I already did so - started in 2006 -now emissionfree / plus-energy business - cheers from Bavaria!
you need to see your shrink
NO COMPETETION
Electric scooter 5/- Rupees per charge - 100+ Km + Clean & Green.
Vs
Petrol Scooter 100/- Rupees per ltr - 50 km + Air & Noise pollution.
Electric mobility is toooo big an oppurtunity. Never in one's life time such a fantastic grand oppurtunity can come second time. We should be all grateful & thankful to Our God's for putting us in the right place at the right time.
Any entrepreneur should grab it with both hand. Imagine being in a country with world's max number of two wheelers & now they all have to all be 100% replaced in next 4 years.
It can't get bigger. The pies so huge that it's on one's own capicity to claim as much. Nothing could be better for people who want to do something with sky's as your only limit. Lot of people ask me how.....Nothing will change in your life if you don't do something different from what you've been doing.
The real game of numbers........ mind boggling.
Two wheelers monthly sales in India is appx Fifty Lac vehicles new & pre-owned.
Per day it's works out to 1.2 lac vehicles sold daily. That's a turnover of 700-900 crores rupees or 10-12 millions usd daily. Incredible India!!!
Most people focus on the wrong thing; They focus on the result, not the process.
The process is the sacrifice, it's all the hard parts; the trust, the sweat, the pain, the tears, the losses.
*You make the sacrifices any way. You learn to enjoy them, or at least embrace them.*
In the end it is the sacrifices that must fulfill you.
Everyone wants to predict the future--But one can only "guess", the truth only time has the power to show.!!!
Though "Nothing can stop an idea whose time has come" & rest assured "It is not the strongest that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change." & It's team work with dedication passion & focus.. We at Rissala - Evolet stand strongly behind the Government for this push to electric mobility & do our bit to make it a success.
The greatness of a company is not in how much wealth it acquires, but in its integrity & its ability to affect the people & enviornment around positively. _Ever Grateful to the Indian Army, Cavalry & the Horses!!!_
It's important to Dream big. Make a Bindass Passionate team & get down to Action!!
*Waafadari, Junoon aur Wishwaas*
_Agar hai toh aur kuch ho na ho faraq nahi padta, aur yeh nahi hai toh aur kuch bhi ho faraq nahi padta._
*Loyalty, Passion & Trust -*
_If these qualities are there, then nothing else matters, & if not there, then anything else does not matter._
Ally.
www.evoletindia.com.
_What would you attempt to do if you knew you would not fail?_
www.evoletindia.com.
Do Meat. Isn't vegan best for everything? Doctors......Pharma. Whoa.
All that energy that is used by oil cars needs to be filled up by electric energy, where do you think that huge gap will come from? They will have to supply that electric energy by either using oil and transform it into electricity or new less efficient emerging energy technologies.
@@user-to2rf1rj5v, In addition China has started work on solar stations in space with power being beamed down to the surface by microwave.
First station launch aimed for 2021.
Have you ever thought about, that making gas out of oil, costs a lot of energy? A liter gas needs about 6kw/h
So, just count...
oops! I guess tony never studied history. he makes the mistake of calling the car a technology disruption. he needs to learn about the great horse manure crisis of 1894. the car (in NYC) was the solution to a crisis, which is VERY different than a disruption.
The situation was a crisis for the urban commuter but for the horse breeder it was a financial jackpot. Accordingly one person's crisis is another person's cash flow. Thus the cancellation of one person's crisis can be the generation of another person's disruption...
Crisis may be a trigger, in the end it's technology that moves everything forward.
EV = cheaper gas price
Only until the oil companies cant afford the energy to get the oil out, then there wont be any.
All the old ICE vehicles will be to cheap to throw away. Hahaha
Some of the things this guy said are gross exaggerations. A Tesla has well over 1000 parts.
Moving parts
try listening....
I believe his referring to the drive train not the total number of parts to make the car
He makes same mistakes that all who have believed in that technology will save mankind in someway have done.
Poor people will always be poor and not have access to this next new thing how cheap it ever might be. Poor will get poorer and rich richer. Some may switch position but the fact remains.
But this misstake has been made by many smart people over the centuries.
Unless there is an economic disruption: the Universal Basic Income where the money produced by the upcoming very advanced AI that will take our jobs is shared between everybody. But history told us that the money and power were controlled by small individuals yes, so it could make the huge majority poor.
This isn't true, when technology becomes cheap the poor people get it as well as the rich. Its why you would expect to see poor people own a cell phone today. The ride sharing services that the presenter mentions will be drastically cheaper than owning a car today so poor people will have access to that as well. The poor of the world are going to definitely become richer with this technology.
If what you said was true, nobody but the rich would be driving cars, or using smartphones, etc, etc, etc.....