Don’t miss your chance to hire Tony Seba for your event or conference! Simply contact Champions Speakers to secure your top speaker: champions-speakers.co.uk/contact
@@TheRealSnakePlisken Our most critical problem is climate change whose primary solution is emission-free energy. Tony's been easily the most influential analyst of the transition to clean sustainable energy bar none. His predictions have been amazingly accurate and his analysis of technology disruption has changed the way we think about our future.
I came here from @ElectricViking channel to say this speech by Tony Seba is incredibly insightful. The individual technologies and their individual trajectories are very predictable. Observations like Moore's Law are obvious in isolation. But Tony's insight of looking across many technologies and predicting when they will combine into a single disruptive event, that's genius. Speeches like this make me optimistic for the future. Global energy supplied by renewables such as solar. Electrified transport. Autonomous vehicles. It will be obvious to everyone in hindsight but after watching this speech, it is obvious in foresight as well.
This material should be considered essential viewing for all present and future policymakers. It will equip them with the necessary knowledge to navigate the emerging global economic landscape effectively.
I would prefer that they just stop being policy makers. Let's get rid of policy makers. People who control our lives with the threat of force from the state.
THIS material should be BANNED, with an explanation of HONEST engineers. Before it's too late. Read my answer above. I have children and would not want to see the live in a Mad Max world....
@@panan7777 This might be a good idea. Banning something usually increases its spread. Of course the idea of banning something is abhorrent in any open democratic society. I wouldn't want to live in more of a policed state than we already do. I can see all kinds of political and economic forces at play that would attempt to make us slave no matter the system we live under, but lets keep it out in the open so we at least have a chance of controlling the inevitable.
I would be interested to know about any areas that looked like they were going to be disruptive but failed. You can make lots of predictions for disruption and at a later date cherry pick those that worked out. I find all this interesting / exciting and scary in equal measure.
The most important question is, how can it be managed that all the benefits reach the average citizen and do not lead to the phenomenon that rich people get even richer and the majority of people do not benefit much. Look how much progress we had in the last 60 years, but while even a usual worker could feed a family back then, today that is barely possible.
Then, mostly MEN added VALUE, today you have millions of mostly women, holding high, USELESS degrees, adding zero or even subtracting the value. Add the vastly overblown social security for just about everybody that will not work, millions of "refugees", crazy green policies, sucking TRILLIONS worldwide and money gets tight. Because of this policies the EU is falling apart. If still looks good from the outside, but google: Poor German retirees and be VERY surprised. Also: EU healhtcare falling apart. Vote some more for Democrats and good times will be just a distant memory. Hint: See the pictures from California and companies running out. Wealth is NOT infinite and must be constantly replenished.
You are on point with the rich getting the “transition”. There aren’t enough minerals, materials, and processing ability to provide the Transition to everyone, and by everyone, I mean the other 7 billion of the current 8+ billion people in the world. Tony cherry picks, then skews his stats. Great briefing. I love it. But the situation is much messier, more dire, and with much more collateral damage [pollution, blight] than he will ever admit.
Florida has enacted legislation to ban non animal meat sales . Maybe the farmers watched this video and said "Holly Crap", we've got to talk to our lobbyists.
What is needed is new, cheap but super strong, super light carbon based building materials for things like cars and all kinds of other goods. Make it out of poop and CO2. The strongest, lightest thing I can think of is graphene, pure carbon. The next revolution? Based on frequency interaction self assembly? Possibly.
Best done in space, in a weightless environment. When metals bond here on the surface, the process takes too long and there is separation, so no perfect bonds and we get metal fatigue, cracks etc, rust, a huge problem for us. The worst person you can think of who speaks about this, is David Adair. He describes the whole process and he did so 30 years ago. You guessed it a "whistleblower", from the conspiracy UFO crowd,
The Saudis know better than anyone when the oil supply will seriously decline. They own the biggest oil field, Ghawar. According to data they released, Ghawar production has declined from 5 million barrels a day to 3.8 million barrels a day.
I'd take it as a strong warning for the West (although his wording is "leapfrog the west"). What country is best positioned on all levels? 5g/6g networks, electrical transition (both electricity production and distribution), battery development, electric car,... What country wins the most from completely automating industrial processes and product development (almost doesn't exist anymore in the West) Don't think it's a coincidence this Western visionary has a Chinese wife.
In Europe where I live, in 15 years we will still debating on whether to 'invest' in nuclear tech that will be 50 years old or compensate with gas. China will have completely transitioned. Look at the impact of energy cost on production (ask Germany without Nordstream). China will have control over solar panels worldwide, is already the leader in atomic energy production (both fission and fusion), the cost for electricity will be half of that in the US.
I think everyone should be aware of the PF industry and what scientists are thinking. These things are not value-neutral. Nor is the ultimate gain of human beings the goal. Not if current events are any evaluation. Some addressing of these issues would be good.
Nothing is truly value-neutral; it would be helpful if you would state the issues you perceive. The "ultimate gain of human beings" -- i.e. benefit to humans (?) -- is not the goal? What IS the goal, then?
I can tell you now PFCA will destroy the NZ economy and many similar economies. if this were true and were to play out. He has not factored in food security. Centralised food production in factories mean a clear military target. 80% of farmers will go bankrupt according to his papers. He has not factored in societal disruption occurring now. His tech bets have proven correct but he remains silent on the geopolitics of what happens next.
1. solar as main power source and store excess power in the form H2 gas and NH3 and have sufficient amount of biomass, natural gas or even coal as backup. 2. Nigerian tapioca is vastly under utilized, vis-a-vis, biogas or biofuel. Add fast growing plants like Napier grass to this list. 3. Turn coal into grey H2, NH3 or methane - with carbon capture built-in. 4. High Temperature Heat Pump (HTHP) for industrial processes is under utilized. ...quite a few others in transport as well.
Corn sugar is uncool, high fructose corn syrup on the ingredient label. When I was body building I remember..wait it was a food combing diet.Sugar impedes protein digestion or absorption,don’t remember which.Maybe both.
As for food, we don't need another food industry driven food disaster like high fructose corn syrup. We need nutrition proven to be long term desirable and safe. There is a lot more to good nutrition than a handful of proteins. We need to make these decisions with the benevolent highest interest of humanity and the planet in mind. This cannot be rushed. I have no idea how to put together such a group of knowledgeable people. Our government / industry controlled system does not allow it.
Cultivated or PF meat and dairy will probably be safer than than today’s animal products. Basically identical to the real thing but without the antibiotics, the e-coli and the salmonella etcetera.
No one can fight the inevitable. Either you leapfrog or support the evolutionary process or you get crushed. What you can do is try to slow it down. But that would cost money and ruin economic chances you would have had, embracing the change.
They know that one day their oil will run out. Therefore, they know that they have to plan for the future now, while they still have the financial muscle to do something about it. These disruptions will give them less time than they thought they had.
The only reason BYD can sell such cheap cars, and the reason EV's are selling well in china is because it is a National Project with subsidies for manufacturers and buyers. China decided to go all in on the EV because the amount of time and research to gain just a technological parity with ICE engine design and manufacturing would prevent any real export volume, or demand abroad let alone at home and that would prevent china from establishing a significant automotive industry with multiple big manufacturers. The EV automotive industry was the CCP's solution to substitute the massive hole the housing market crash has left in there economy. Because EV's were relatively new to virtually all the major traditional brands and are technically simpler Chinese companies could start without being a century behind and maybe even gain a competitive advantage in the EV market globally. So there is also a sort of nationalistic angle to EV's in china that doesn't exist anywhere else. I really doubt any of this would happen this fast, comparing the horse to the car is not the same as ICE to EV. EV's are at best an alternative they don't hold some overwhelming advantage and in fact they actually are a worse form of transportation and come with a bunch of drawbacks. This has always been pushed for environmentalism and is being mandated, that didn't have to be done to force people into buying cars over horses. Apart from that The governments in the west would have had to start planning and building infrastructure upgrades a decade or more ago for a true significant transition to EV's. People generally don't want EV's especially not now. Charging at home isn't available to everyone. Autonomous cars once again have some major issues, that I don't see there being a way to millions of those cars on the road without a major external networked system being developed and built that allows cars to negotiate and talk to each other. The need for them and advantage of them just isn't great enough to justify the risks without it all being codified in law ahead of time. The combustion engine was a technology that was required to exceed to the limitations of horses especially when it comes to trucks and heavy equipment. the benefits of autonomous cars and EV's are mostly things that would be nice to have, more so with EV's whose benefits are all external to the Customer, with major sacrifices on the part of the customer Especially when you that customer is living in North America.
Xi has put in some serious efforts to solve the 'bad air' problems in Chinese cities, hence the EV route or 'imposition'. It's also strategic, as hydrocarbon fuel would have to be imported, whereas electric power can be either solar, nuclear or coal - all local. There are quite a few alternative solutions to EV while staying green, H2, DME and various other hybrid systems in between. Reason also why hybrid is gaining popularity over EV as it has a 'sound' backup system in case battery runs flat. It also has the advantage of doing away with the traditional gearbox in some designs, a tad less mechanical complexity.
How much subsidies do the fossil fuel industry get? 1 in 5 new cars sold last year were evs. The biggest selling car last year was the tesla model y. Yes sales wen't down in quarter 1 of this year. But that has been the same for years with sales lower than q4 of the year previous.
You are basically right, any major transition takes decades, starting from generation, infrastructure, adaptation and manufacturing. The solar boom in California for rooftop systems is over with NEM 3.0 and EV sales have dropped in most places when subsidies were reduced. I doubt that any of these predictions will be true as they have been almost always wrong in the past. No one has ever predicted the future which feels good.
TCO (total cost of ownership) is much better for EV´s like Teslas Model 3 and Y and some other EV´s on the market. Now we talk about the lower mid segment of the market and the compact car segment is just starting to get conquered by EV´s. Just talk to people that have an EV. The fact that the infrastructure is not well developed does not mean that this cannot happen. Now it is just becoming profitable to run a charging network, the more EV´s sold the more profitable it becomes and with that more chargers will be deployed. If you can charge at your supermarket while shopping it is even more convenient then to search for a petrol station, drive the detour and have to spend the time to fill up. Charging is just plugging in and plugging out, when you come back, it is much faster than filling in petrol, when you do it during other activities.
Why is there a dearth of verifiable background information for this word salad expert? Taking history and positing it as prescience is disingenuous and smacks of leftist idiocy. Farts are more informative.
Funny that, indeed. Well, Tony did write an article at Forbes in 2011, but the Concentrated Solar Power companies he was lauding are identified in this 2020 article in GreenMedia titled: America’s Concentrated Solar Power Companies Have All but Disappeared If you do a Wiki on the company SolarReserve you can see the outline of how these failures are folded into other companies in a sort of nested fashion; with United Technologies Corporation being involved with SolarReserve, and then UTC itself being merged with Raytheon in 2020. It's not to say that there isn't some value in the patents, but it does sort of reveal that Tony in 2011 had at least one of his eyes on a distraction in an attempt to prove his disruption thesis. I guess if ya throw enough darts you'll hit a bullseye once in awhile. The cost-curve of Photo-Voltaic panels may be one of those if someone figures out mitigation of hail damage.
What energy is used to make solar? What energy is used to make batteries? What energy is used to make EVs? What is the status of the tech that turns nuclear energy into liquid fuel and how efficient is it? How will we derive the minerals needed to build this transformation and what type of energy will these equipment use? Seems like a rich people project, and not a human transformation, which is required to solve the actual problem…climate change. And BTW, solar is not working in Germany…ask Germans. Superpower my ass. Clock is ticking.
Nuclear, Oil, and Gas deregulation will be used as an accelerator for the power draw of AI, which will be used to figure out high bandwidth solar power
Don’t miss your chance to hire Tony Seba for your event or conference! Simply contact Champions Speakers to secure your top speaker:
champions-speakers.co.uk/contact
Tony Seba is the most important public intellectual of our time.
Now THAT is a bold statement.
@@TheRealSnakePlisken Our most critical problem is climate change whose primary solution is emission-free energy. Tony's been easily the most influential analyst of the transition to clean sustainable energy bar none. His predictions have been amazingly accurate and his analysis of technology disruption has changed the way we think about our future.
I came here from @ElectricViking channel to say this speech by Tony Seba is incredibly insightful. The individual technologies and their individual trajectories are very predictable. Observations like Moore's Law are obvious in isolation. But Tony's insight of looking across many technologies and predicting when they will combine into a single disruptive event, that's genius.
Speeches like this make me optimistic for the future. Global energy supplied by renewables such as solar. Electrified transport. Autonomous vehicles. It will be obvious to everyone in hindsight but after watching this speech, it is obvious in foresight as well.
Me too! And I feel much better facing the world.
This material should be considered essential viewing for all present and future policymakers. It will equip them with the necessary knowledge to navigate the emerging global economic landscape effectively.
Agreed
Although our policymakers
Focus on anything but reality leave alone what’s awaiting us at our doorstep
I would prefer that they just stop being policy makers. Let's get rid of policy makers. People who control our lives with the threat of force from the state.
THIS material should be BANNED, with an explanation of HONEST engineers. Before it's too late. Read my answer above.
I have children and would not want to see the live in a Mad Max world....
@@panan7777 This might be a good idea. Banning something usually increases its spread. Of course the idea of banning something is abhorrent in any open democratic society. I wouldn't want to live in more of a policed state than we already do.
I can see all kinds of political and economic forces at play that would attempt to make us slave no matter the system we live under, but lets keep it out in the open so we at least have a chance of controlling the inevitable.
It is remarkable how spot on he was with so many predictions.
Great talk Tony....Thank You! Be good!!
I would be interested to know about any areas that looked like they were going to be disruptive but failed. You can make lots of predictions for disruption and at a later date cherry pick those that worked out. I find all this interesting / exciting and scary in equal measure.
The most important question is, how can it be managed that all the benefits reach the average citizen and do not lead to the phenomenon that rich people get even richer and the majority of people do not benefit much. Look how much progress we had in the last 60 years, but while even a usual worker could feed a family back then, today that is barely possible.
Then, mostly MEN added VALUE, today you have millions of mostly women, holding high, USELESS degrees, adding zero or even subtracting the value. Add the vastly overblown social security for just about everybody that will not work, millions of "refugees", crazy green policies, sucking TRILLIONS worldwide and money gets tight.
Because of this policies the EU is falling apart. If still looks good from the outside, but google: Poor German retirees and be VERY surprised. Also: EU healhtcare falling apart.
Vote some more for Democrats and good times will be just a distant memory. Hint: See the pictures from California and companies running out.
Wealth is NOT infinite and must be constantly replenished.
@@panan7777 Joe wants 100% import duties on EV's. Trump would do the same. So we all get a 100% tax on our transportation before we get a discount.
You are on point with the rich getting the “transition”. There aren’t enough minerals, materials, and processing ability to provide the Transition to everyone, and by everyone, I mean the other 7 billion of the current 8+ billion people in the world. Tony cherry picks, then skews his stats. Great briefing. I love it. But the situation is much messier, more dire, and with much more collateral damage [pollution, blight] than he will ever admit.
must watch
Florida has enacted legislation to ban non animal meat sales . Maybe the farmers watched this video and said "Holly Crap", we've got to talk to our lobbyists.
Greenwave Technology Solutions, Inc. (GWAV) an undervalued stock to buy
Sounds like a Great Reset for humanity!
Now where have I heard that before...? 🤔
What is needed is new, cheap but super strong, super light carbon based building materials for things like cars and all kinds of other goods. Make it out of poop and CO2. The strongest, lightest thing I can think of is graphene, pure carbon. The next revolution? Based on frequency interaction self assembly? Possibly.
Best done in space, in a weightless environment.
When metals bond here on the surface, the process takes too long and there is separation, so no perfect bonds and we get metal fatigue, cracks etc, rust, a huge problem for us.
The worst person you can think of who speaks about this, is David Adair.
He describes the whole process and he did so 30 years ago.
You guessed it a "whistleblower", from the conspiracy UFO crowd,
We want to see the slides, not zoomed into his face and far away pan shots.
I wanted to see his lovely wife 2 :( @11.53
Certainly don’t want to see audience members.
Search for "Ramez Naam", he shows similar slides about similar subjects.
U should have attended the event
Remarkable, my comment is removed...
Telling the Saudis that oil will be obsolete 😂
The Saudis know better than anyone when the oil supply will seriously decline.
They own the biggest oil field, Ghawar. According to data they released, Ghawar production has declined from 5 million barrels a day to 3.8 million barrels a day.
I'd take it as a strong warning for the West (although his wording is "leapfrog the west"). What country is best positioned on all levels? 5g/6g networks, electrical transition (both electricity production and distribution), battery development, electric car,... What country wins the most from completely automating industrial processes and product development (almost doesn't exist anymore in the West) Don't think it's a coincidence this Western visionary has a Chinese wife.
In Europe where I live, in 15 years we will still debating on whether to 'invest' in nuclear tech that will be 50 years old or compensate with gas. China will have completely transitioned. Look at the impact of energy cost on production (ask Germany without Nordstream). China will have control over solar panels worldwide, is already the leader in atomic energy production (both fission and fusion), the cost for electricity will be half of that in the US.
I think everyone should be aware of the PF industry and what scientists are thinking. These things are not value-neutral. Nor is the ultimate gain of human beings the goal. Not if current events are any evaluation. Some addressing of these issues would be good.
Nothing is truly value-neutral; it would be helpful if you would state the issues you perceive.
The "ultimate gain of human beings" -- i.e. benefit to humans (?) -- is not the goal? What IS the goal, then?
I can tell you now PFCA will destroy the NZ economy and many similar economies. if this were true and were to play out. He has not factored in food security. Centralised food production in factories mean a clear military target. 80% of farmers will go bankrupt according to his papers. He has not factored in societal disruption occurring now. His tech bets have proven correct but he remains silent on the geopolitics of what happens next.
How can you help Africa ,particularly Nigeria benefit from this disruption, We have the resources but we do not have the technology. I am in on this.
1. solar as main power source and store excess power in the form H2 gas and NH3 and have sufficient amount of biomass, natural gas or even coal as backup.
2. Nigerian tapioca is vastly under utilized, vis-a-vis, biogas or biofuel. Add fast growing plants like Napier grass to this list.
3. Turn coal into grey H2, NH3 or methane - with carbon capture built-in.
4. High Temperature Heat Pump (HTHP) for industrial processes is under utilized.
...quite a few others in transport as well.
Hire Ibitayo Ibikunle of Motorola fame to assist Nigeria's transition
Basically you telling me to sell my horse? What will be next? Pocket size computer?
Corn sugar is uncool, high fructose corn syrup on the ingredient label. When I was body building I remember..wait it was a food combing diet.Sugar impedes protein digestion or absorption,don’t remember which.Maybe both.
FFIE to the moon
As for food, we don't need another food industry driven food disaster like high fructose corn syrup. We need nutrition proven to be long term desirable and safe. There is a lot more to good nutrition than a handful of proteins. We need to make these decisions with the benevolent highest interest of humanity and the planet in mind. This cannot be rushed. I have no idea how to put together such a group of knowledgeable people. Our government / industry controlled system does not allow it.
Cultivated or PF meat and dairy will probably be safer than than today’s animal products. Basically identical to the real thing but without the antibiotics, the e-coli and the salmonella etcetera.
👍👍👌⚡️✅🤗
Because Google execs were on Apple’s board. This is what fueled Steve Jobs anger.
Sheiks listening very carefully so that they can do everything in contrary
No one can fight the inevitable. Either you leapfrog or support the evolutionary process or you get crushed. What you can do is try to slow it down. But that would cost money and ruin economic chances you would have had, embracing the change.
They know that one day their oil will run out. Therefore, they know that they have to plan for the future now, while they still have the financial muscle to do something about it. These disruptions will give them less time than they thought they had.
The only reason BYD can sell such cheap cars, and the reason EV's are selling well in china is because it is a National Project with subsidies for manufacturers and buyers. China decided to go all in on the EV because the amount of time and research to gain just a technological parity with ICE engine design and manufacturing would prevent any real export volume, or demand abroad let alone at home and that would prevent china from establishing a significant automotive industry with multiple big manufacturers.
The EV automotive industry was the CCP's solution to substitute the massive hole the housing market crash has left in there economy. Because EV's were relatively new to virtually all the major traditional brands and are technically simpler Chinese companies could start without being a century behind and maybe even gain a competitive advantage in the EV market globally. So there is also a sort of nationalistic angle to EV's in china that doesn't exist anywhere else.
I really doubt any of this would happen this fast, comparing the horse to the car is not the same as ICE to EV. EV's are at best an alternative they don't hold some overwhelming advantage and in fact they actually are a worse form of transportation and come with a bunch of drawbacks. This has always been pushed for environmentalism and is being mandated, that didn't have to be done to force people into buying cars over horses. Apart from that The governments in the west would have had to start planning and building infrastructure upgrades a decade or more ago for a true significant transition to EV's. People generally don't want EV's especially not now. Charging at home isn't available to everyone. Autonomous cars once again have some major issues, that I don't see there being a way to millions of those cars on the road without a major external networked system being developed and built that allows cars to negotiate and talk to each other. The need for them and advantage of them just isn't great enough to justify the risks without it all being codified in law ahead of time. The combustion engine was a technology that was required to exceed to the limitations of horses especially when it comes to trucks and heavy equipment. the benefits of autonomous cars and EV's are mostly things that would be nice to have, more so with EV's whose benefits are all external to the Customer, with major sacrifices on the part of the customer Especially when you that customer is living in North America.
Xi has put in some serious efforts to solve the 'bad air' problems in Chinese cities, hence the EV route or 'imposition'.
It's also strategic, as hydrocarbon fuel would have to be imported, whereas electric power can be either solar, nuclear or coal - all local.
There are quite a few alternative solutions to EV while staying green, H2, DME and various other hybrid systems in between.
Reason also why hybrid is gaining popularity over EV as it has a 'sound' backup system in case battery runs flat.
It also has the advantage of doing away with the traditional gearbox in some designs, a tad less mechanical complexity.
How much subsidies do the fossil fuel industry get?
1 in 5 new cars sold last year were evs. The biggest selling car last year was the tesla model y.
Yes sales wen't down in quarter 1 of this year. But that has been the same for years with sales lower than q4 of the year previous.
You are basically right, any major transition takes decades, starting from generation, infrastructure, adaptation and manufacturing.
The solar boom in California for rooftop systems is over with NEM 3.0 and EV sales have dropped in most places when subsidies were reduced.
I doubt that any of these predictions will be true as they have been almost always wrong in the past. No one has ever predicted the future which feels good.
TCO (total cost of ownership) is much better for EV´s like Teslas Model 3 and Y and some other EV´s on the market. Now we talk about the lower mid segment of the market and the compact car segment is just starting to get conquered by EV´s. Just talk to people that have an EV. The fact that the infrastructure is not well developed does not mean that this cannot happen. Now it is just becoming profitable to run a charging network, the more EV´s sold the more profitable it becomes and with that more chargers will be deployed. If you can charge at your supermarket while shopping it is even more convenient then to search for a petrol station, drive the detour and have to spend the time to fill up. Charging is just plugging in and plugging out, when you come back, it is much faster than filling in petrol, when you do it during other activities.
Sorry but very dumb cameraman. 😵💫
Why is there a dearth of verifiable background information for this word salad expert? Taking history and positing it as prescience is disingenuous and smacks of leftist idiocy. Farts are more informative.
Funny that, indeed. Well, Tony did write an article at Forbes in 2011, but the Concentrated Solar Power companies he was lauding are identified in this 2020 article in GreenMedia titled: America’s Concentrated Solar Power Companies Have All but Disappeared
If you do a Wiki on the company SolarReserve you can see the outline of how these failures are folded into other companies in a sort of nested fashion; with United Technologies Corporation being involved with SolarReserve, and then UTC itself being merged with Raytheon in 2020. It's not to say that there isn't some value in the patents, but it does sort of reveal that Tony in 2011 had at least one of his eyes on a distraction in an attempt to prove his disruption thesis. I guess if ya throw enough darts you'll hit a bullseye once in awhile. The cost-curve of Photo-Voltaic panels may be one of those if someone figures out mitigation of hail damage.
What energy is used to make solar? What energy is used to make batteries? What energy is used to make EVs? What is the status of the tech that turns nuclear energy into liquid fuel and how efficient is it? How will we derive the minerals needed to build this transformation and what type of energy will these equipment use? Seems like a rich people project, and not a human transformation, which is required to solve the actual problem…climate change. And BTW, solar is not working in Germany…ask Germans. Superpower my ass. Clock is ticking.
Nuclear, Oil, and Gas deregulation will be used as an accelerator for the power draw of AI, which will be used to figure out high bandwidth solar power
The food shit needs to be outlawed
You can have your own 3D COW PRINTER.