How does the Ukraine war compare to the 2003 Invasion of Iraq and 1941 Operation Barbarossa?
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- Опубликовано: 25 мар 2022
- This video talks about the first month of the war in Ukraine, comparing Russian military performance with that of historical examples from 1941 and 2003; Operation Barbarossa and Invasion of Iraq, respectively. Just why is Russian military doing poorly? This video offers some answers.
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It baffles me that half the comments are calling Binkov a Russian shill while the other half are simultaneously calling him Western propaganda. Maybe it’s neither and he’s just making a video for our entertainment
Let's combine that and say he's a Western Russian propagandist. He only posts from the perspective of Bryansk and Pskov.
He's definitely making a video for our entertainment as much as he's making it to earn a few bucks... As far as his analysis is concerned, I wouldn't call it pro Russian or pro NATO. I would simply call it false, wrong and disregarding many factors... Saying that the Russian military would somehow magically change their tactics and reverse the fortune of war, is nonsense. It doesn't matter which tactics they use, Russian military has got deep rooted command&control problems regarding their high level officers as well as their NCOs. Then there's also an abysmal level of troop training, simply disasterous. Logistics can be improved, but the lack of modern weapon systems needed for the combined arms maneuver warfare and a bad leadership, are things that can't be mended within a month or two. Especially given the massive blow that Russian economy and society are experiencing because of the economic sanctions imposed by the West..
If what he said or show arent same like What "Western Media" reporting, they all will branded him as Pro-Russia supporter. Like i said, i never ever trust west media report after 2003 Iraq War alot Fake News
We are back to propaganda wars now. Yes, he is (afaik) not a military analyst, and yes, some of his comparisons are... interesting. But it is a youtube video, it can be wrong, and that will not kill anyone. Shows how high tensions are running right now, as if either side could make themselves win by arguing in the comment section of a video...
@@markbrisec3972 You don't know what you are talking about. The Russian army is not structured like the US army. There are no NCOs in the Russian army, which is why you have officers dying on the front lines. And the reality of the situation is that Russia is not using its full military might. It clearly has issues with its ground forces because the personnel it sent in were neophytes, not having the necessary training or experience to effect Russia's goals. Urban warfare favors the defenders because it enables a much smaller force the ability to fend off a much larger invading force.
Americans had air superiority almost instantly in 2003...that is by far and away the biggest difference. Everything else pales in comparison of importance to that imo!
They also didn’t take anywhere near the same losses.
BUT:
they where also hyper- careful about own casualties! That is a even bigger contrast to Russia of 2022.
(And Ru hat disputed air superiority up day one.)
Iraq was also not supported by the Russians, which makes a huge difference
Like in 1991 Iraq’s massive army was turned to scarp by air power
The U.S has a better trained Air Force and larger SEAD/DEAD capability period.
I don't get how people think binkov is pro Russian. He is more or less saying Russia screwed up and are in a situation much closer to one that saw the invader fail rather than succeed.
Because people are going crazy from all the anti-Russia trend in the news just like the anti-Trump trend prior.
Fu*k the media basically.
Special Operation Clusterfuck Tactics
Phase 1: getting your ass kicked on your way in
Phase 2: getting your ass kicked on your way out
I think a lot of Russia's problems also bears resemblance to the failed Operation MARKET GARDEN in WWII. Field Marshal Montgomery anticipated weak resistance in Holland but became bogged down as his armored column was forced to move down a single axis of attack that favored the defenders. I think we're seeing a similar situation in Ukraine with the Russian army, due to weather/mud conditions being confined to the main roads and therefore easy pickings for light infantry mounting hit and run attacks with AT weapons.
Yea also refusing to believe local intel that German armour was in the area. Putin and Monty only hearing what they want to hear.
@K Yeah, the allied assault lost twice the troops in half the time of this invasion. Talk about an unmitigated disaster put into proportion.
RU Doctrine is Fundamentally different than Western Allied Doctrines.
Deep Operation/Deep Battle
is very Flexible Operationally, secretive of true objectives , and Very scary to defend and attack agaisnt.
the most successful Military operation of ww2 was operation Balgration,
where they destryoed the German Field Military entirely.
using Deep Battle Doctrine.
Educate yourself and search up Deep operation/Deep Battle Doctrine
by all accounts especially by German, US officers and Analysts Deep operation doctrine is very formidable.
The only similar thing between this and market garden was both were fighting Nazis🇺🇦🇩🇪
@@megacomments4947 That will be remembered as the most ridiculous justification for Adolph Putins war. There aren’t any “Nazis” in a nation led by a Jewish President whose ancestors died in the Holocaust. It proves either Putin is stupid, or he thinks the rest of the world is populated by idiots. Thankfully Ukraine will be the end of the Putin regime.
And remember, Binkov may talk about *real* wars, but only *hypothetical* peace can bring us all together.
truer words have never been spoken. at least not at the end of a Binkov video ;)
Nice remix on his closing statement.
I miss the days when Binkov only talked about hypothetical wars 😢
I miss the days of media not lying about everything
@@GorfLlubz that's literally never happened
According to the Fazzists in the Kremlin and their 'constituents', it's not a war but a 'Zpecial Operation'....
@@mrsnrub282 you are so brave for that comment
@@mrsnrub282 oh you're in for a treat
Funny that the comments are split into people shouting "Russian propaganda," others shouting "Western propaganda," and armchair generals.
That's how Russian propaganda works, they try to accuses you of the opposite to sow confusion, it's similar to their "what about you" strategy. Anyone who watched this can see this was a pro invasion video, apparently he lives in Russia which is why he can't refer to it as an invasion.
"war is Hell".
@@jimmiller5600 Innocent people don't go to hell.
@@Dagreatdudeman unless they don’t believe in god
@@dufflitplaysgames7406 Which god? Asking for a friend.
From my understanding the initial Russian strategy was to take airports during the initial stages and use them as a base from which to launch attacks as well as supply its forces. This would explain both leaving so many troops behind, as well as why they had such a shockingly low number of supply trucks when Russia's own numbers suggest they can only really supply up to about the distance Russia reached in the first 3 days of the attack.
However by that 3 days it had become quite clear that strategy was not going to work, and intel reports suggested that Russian leadership had suggested a change in strategy. From this point forwards we see a stark difference in tactics and a much more conventional style of combat for Russia which has long since focused on building an assembly point, moving up slightly, repeat (since USSR era in fact).
With this the comparison with WW2 Hitler's attack on Russia is valid, but in my opinion it is the wrong comparison. Instead the view of Germany making great progress initially and then slowing down also fits - they had stretched their supply lines and were literally incapable of feeding their troops that far from home. This is mirrored with Russian troops having raided food stores and the like in the Ukraine war. The outcome however seems less certain, Germany was literally incapable of doing better as they didn't have the fuel, didn't have the trucks, couldn't feed their horses, and so on. Russia has enough fuel and trucks, just not in the right areas. It would be possible for Russia to fix the issues, but in war obviously nothing is ever that simple and other issues could come about to stall Russia (for example Ukraine putting mines on roads or dealing drone strikes to convoys).
In any case I find it fitting that Russia's main problem to a swift Russian victory was Russia themselves in not preparing nearly enough trucks to exploit those first few days.
Ukraine is running out of fuel and ammunition, and not enough guns.
Plus Russia is bombing the hell out of Ukrainian supply lines and convoys.
@@eliasziad7864 Did you, by any chance, confuse Ukraine with Russia?
@@matisek7923 No.
@@alikaraahmet5050 Typical for Turks to be saying that about wahmen
@@eliasziad7864 Then I would advise making your misinformation at least somewhat believeable. Or if you actually believe what you're typing, try getting a MRI scan, I'm quite sure they would find brain damage.
One thing everyone seems to neglect during analysis is factoring in the effects of corruption on the Russian army readiness. Just how much money was spent on fictitious training, maintenance and supplies? What % of the military budget is materialized as opposed to siphoned and embezzled at the various levels of command?
As is, without corruption, the Russian military budget is a major issue plaguing the Russian military.
A lot of it is spent on stuff that has no bearing on the current conflict. The USA spends more than 60B USD just maintaining their nuclear weapons. Russia’s total military budget is around 70B USD. Even accounting for cheaper labor, lower acquisition, and lower readiness the Russians are spending a lot on stuff that doesn’t matter.
@@kurousagi8155 Mostly on stuff that will never go into full-scale production (see: T-14 and Su-75 Checkmate/Femboy)
@@discipleofdagon8195 I think my least favorite Russian military project has to be that dreadful Poseidon nuclear drone torpedo. Who thought that was a good idea? That’s possibly the most stupid idea I’ve ever heard of.
Меньше чем в альянсе соевых мальчиков из НАТО
@@kurousagi8155 Ah yes because filling the ocean with radioactive debris is SUCH A GOOD IDEA
i always find it funny when "armchair generals" claim that ukraine was unprepared, just because nobody (neither ukrainian politicians nor the media) yelled "the russians are coming". they had many weeks to prepare and knew what was coming.
it would have been stupid to intercept an infasion army directly at the border (superior enemy forces, fresh, with short supply lines)
ukraine had many years to restructure the military. the command structure, the composition of the army, the tactics are for the fight against a superior infasion army . no head to head mass battles. but for defense of key positions. attack supply lines as effectively as possible with as few casualties and resources as possible.
the army is experienced in combat (years of fighting on the eastern border). she is well trained in this planned warfare (western instructors). the military fights in the exact manner and tactics they were trained for.
The Russian army, in turn, is forced to fight a battle for which it is (for the most part) untrained.
the enemy does not give them the big battles on a broad front. and the whole thing with too few troops for this infasion, ohh..sorry...
"most idiotic military operation".
with poorly trained soldiers, bad officers, bad material, absurdly inadequate supplies and the assessment of the enemy from the "lu-lu land" no matter how the world assesses the russian army now, one thing is clear, russia's army is the second best... in Ukraine..
greetings from an
"armchair general" ;)
Addendum:
I intentionally didn't address the question of who would win (militarily). Too much fog of war... too much probaganda from all sides... I'm not a general or a military strategist... I don't have a magic crystal ball.
Don't forget the state of the art NATO intelligence(ARTEMIS, E3 AWAC, satellite imagery and other electronic warfare). Russia was already an overglorified third world shithole trying to find relevance in the region and now they pretty much signed their death warrant with this invasion.
Agreed. I love the Pro-Russian comments that insist everything is going according to plan. I don't know how this one will end up, but I doubt the Russian war plan was "advance rapidly for a week, then stall in place for a month while Ukrainians take potshots at our armored vehicles".
In other words, Russia is getting their asses handed to them no matter how Binkov spins it.
spins it? how?
There was no spin. He ligit said the numbers didnt add up interms of what they hoped to achieved. I get that Binkov is a [literal] puppet but this channel has never been a propoganda mill so idek where and why ppl keep pushing that narrative
@@JS_Gaiserik only person that russian TV is allowed to show
@@ADB_UWIM_2807 I usually find him very impartial when it comes to analysis but this one seems very biased towards the Russians.
@@foxtayle683 Sadly that is the case. Watched nearly all of his videos but that one is just pushing Russian side. I hate that he cant be impartial. Just downright sad.
Ah yes, RUclips comment sections, where we have only the very best armchair generals discuss the situation. Thank you, Binkov, for continuing to shed a mature outlook on an ever-evolving war, I greatly appreciate your insight.
and Binkov is an actual general?
@@teddyd.5074 a fictional one lol. He still conveys information accurately though.
Assuming Binkov doesn't play 24/7 play Hearts Of Iron and War thunder and considers it as expertise
@@matsin3967 so... No?
@@teddyd.5074 he’s not an actual general lmao he’s a fucking puppet 😂 how sad is it that you’re trying to find an argument in which someone thinks a puppet is an actual general
And remember, it is not an economic war at Russia. It is just a special economic operation.
Exceptional financial constraints*
It's stupid foreign policy on the part of the US imo.
That's why you guys are complaining about gas prices?
"special economic operation" so same wording from the west ever since they deployed missiles in the east to "defend against iran"
nothing new there
Binkov: hypothetical wars
Me: not anymore Binkov .. not any more :(
People, Binkov isn't taking sides, he's explaining the military situation as it was in the time. Chill.
No he is not. He is making mistakes.
He isn't, he purposely decided to shit on Iraq and ignore the important circumstances that made Iraq not put up a large fight against the US, he did that to glorify US forces and make it seem that Iraq and Ukraine are similar although Ukraine wasn't heavily sanctioned for 12 years, Ukraine didn't have to fight the largest coalition since WW2, Ukraine wasn't isolated from the world for 12 years, Ukraine didn't have a tyrannical leader hated by almost everyone for 32 years, and there are many many more differences that would make it stupid to compare the 2 wars.
I’m surprised that Binkov didn’t compare the invasion of Ukraine to the Soviet invasion of Finland in 1939.
Haha and saying Ukraine is more like soviet example... If that were true then Ukraine would have suffered more losses, which isn't the case!
@@averdadeeumaso4003 We have no idea how many losses Ukraine has had.
@@downwiththethiccness9406 just by visual confirmation in publicly available sources there's roughly 3 to 4 : 1 ratio.
LOL look at all the ret4rds getting super offended at the fact that Binkov used Iraq invasion as one of the comparisons. The Ukraine invasion is wrong, but the illegal invasion of Iraq was just as bad, if not worse, and MUCH more civilians died in Iraq. To get all triggered over this comparison really says a lot about who you are and your hypocritical motives. xD
@@DoctorM42 russia way more losses than ukraine
"Binkov may talk about hypothetical wars"
The war: "wait what?"
The training and weapons supplied to Ukraine is making a huge difference. Iraq was invaded after 2 decades of harsh sanctions and with next to no outside military support.
Not to mention US already had experience with invading Iraq during the first Gulf war and destroyed a bunch of their military assets during that first conflict. Russia really thought they were close to the US in an offensive war lmao
“Javelins, you told me they only had spears”
Putin yelling at the head of the KGB
I'd say the right comparison would be the Winter War, except against a much bigger Finland (the USSR was 50x more populous than Finland, Russia is "only" 3x more populous than Ukraine) and much more foreign military aid. Attacking during the rasputitsa forces the Russians to be channeled through predictible corridors so it's similar to finnish forest roads, while Russia displays some baffling levels of incompetence.
You know what? Nobody even had thought about the winter war, maybe it will happen the same thing? that Russia will just trow human waves and be humiliated by a stupidly costly victory?
Its worse than Winter War? idk
@@thebrazillianguytm2186 the potential of sending human waves is limited, Russia hasn't even started any mobilisation and has to court some foreign mercenaries while Ukraine has been mobilised for a month, meaning over time Ukraine will get a numerical superiority. So contrary to the Winter War, Ukraine has the potential of exhausting the amount of troops that Russia can send. Especially if the casualties report are accurate, Russia's offensive might collapse within a few months.
this is no finish war lol. they might have some incompetence in some field but it's mostly just amplified by media that pro Ukraine.
also note that stalin literally just want to do stupid manuever like germany basically goes against his general suggestion at the time to attack finland.
@@rikuahonen8281 that was before sanctions. They already managed to cripple Russia's main tanks factory in the Urals, shortage of chips.
@@thebrazillianguytm2186 again with the horde myth 😭😭
Binkov is not talking about hypothetical wars anymore
wait till he starts talking about fake peace separating us furthur.
Remember when Binkov spoke about hypothetical wars? Yeah... I miss those times too :(
In 2003 the US invaded a country who's military was almost destroyed in 1990 by the biggest coalition since WW2 and weakened by more than a decade of sanctions, no fly zones and airstrikes. Iraq was abandoned by it's friends in 1990 and was helpless in 2003.
What friends?
It’s really an inversion with Ukraine. In 2014 Ukraine’s military was in such horrible shape that Russia might have been successful in invading the whole country if it wanted to. But over the last 8 years Ukraine’s military has undergone such a radical transformation that they have managed to keep the Russians from fulfilling their goals so far. Regardless of who wins, Russia is doing inexcusably poor.
@@jdawg8487 I guess even the US is embarrassed at Russia's performance.
@@psychohist Iraq's traditional allies, Russia France Jordan Egypt Poland Germany etc
It amazes me how Binkov decided to not mention that at all.
Tho I get what he's doing.
I was one of those who was completely wrong about how things would go just before it happened. Turns out the flat terrain doesn't hide tanks from UAVs and they get stuck in the mud if the go off the main roads.
Video was clearly made two weeks ago
Deploying the 5 star generals in the comment section
Very funny to see all this comments about Binkov's supposed favortisme to his "home country" aka Russia because of the name of the channel.
They are croatian, not Russian or else. There is no favoritism, actually their videos are pretty oriented to be impartial, as historial/military observer should be.
Even if they where Russian, this video is clearly from a neutral perspective. Grow up guys.
But you can also spot comments made by poutine supporters, I dont know if I should laught or cry.
Crazy leftist and right wingers: “There is no middle ground nor neutrality!”
Exactly. It's a fairly balanced perspective. He clearly states the Russians underestimated the Ukrainians and that the 'front lines' are not as they may appear...sometimes it's just a line drawn.
Some of the people on here really can't pay attention to details.
The amount of propaganda in these comments is honestly entertaining.
Russians: "They were supposed to greet us as liberators..."
Americans: "First time?"
@Iron Pilled II: Martial Futurism definitely not their first time. as the saying goes "Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me."
The US went into Iraq and took out their ruthless dictator Saddam, Zelensky is not a dictator; big difference.
Didn't Suddan say the say thing when he invaded Iran as well?
America did carpet bomb all in their wars, Russia never did .
But in the media they always mention children, women and elderly . For the cattle to follow
@@YeeLeeHaw you mean that the US took them black oil and raped and kill them civilians Saddam was dictator yes but zelinsky is your toy you Americans are living into fairytales really
You didn’t even really touch on some of Russia’s most shocking failures that took me off guard… they’ve demonstrated total incompetence with their logistics that frankly boggles the mind, they never informed much of their armed forces what they were even setting out to do, and very severe corruption has become abundantly apparent as their vehicles all show signs of decay and their missiles have had bizarrely high failure rates. Throw in the enormous casualty count and dwindling supply of guided missiles just for kicks.
This has the biggest faceplant of an invasion we’ve seen in ages, at least from a large nation… Russia best cling to those nukes, as it has just revealed itself to be a paper tiger in every other meaningful way and will have reduced itself from great power status to a mere vassal-state of China in the near future.
I agree, they “best cling to those nukes”. I’d be surprised if their nuclear forces aren’t plagued by the same maintenance & corruption problems. For all we know, they may only have 1000’s of nukes on paper.
Like holy shit it's incredible how everyone believed they were of similar strength to the USSR. It's almost disappointing. It's great the Ukrainians have a damn good chance of victory though.
The failures really are shocking, they're a HUGE embarrassment for the Russian military and their defense companies. So much of their "new" equipment has been captured intact, so many of their munitions are duds, you can bet on the West getting their hands on all of it and will find every weakness to exploit.
Another shocking discovery is that so many of their missiles, drones, comms, Electronic Warfare, and most platforms considered advanced, is all of the Western electronics inside of them. Hell, the situation with their communications gear alone is such a gigantic failure the Russian forces are having to resort to using open comms from cheap Chinese radios or by stealing Ukrainian civilian's phones.
This really is a huge shock to the whole world, the only real threat Russia posses are their nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, which I hope and pray they don't use.
Russia is on its way of becoming China’s Canada
@@thiccchungo1041, until Chia decides it want the eastern part of Russia, then China will take over the whole eastern part of Russia even if they have to fight for it.
When people talk about the 2003 invasion of Iraq they need to remember that Iraq and the Iraqi armed forces were practically destroyed before the US/UK even entered the country. Much of Iraq's military had been destroyed in the 1991 battles as was much of the country's infrastructure, and although key Republican Guards Divisions got off, in the aftermath of war, Iraq was largely disarmed. That included the infamous WMD programmes. Weapons inspectors crawled over every square inch of Iraq after the defeat in Kuwait. From 1991 - 2003 Iraq had been subjected to the most severe economic warfare, even reducing the people to starvation. The oil for food programme did not improve the Iraqi government's cash position. What little funds Saddam had needed to be used for political patronage to keep his regime in place. Anyone knowing these facts should have been well aware that there was no way Iraq had rebuilt its WMD programmes. Those belonged to the period of the Iran-Iraq war when practically the whole world queued up behind Saddam to help him fight Iran. During this period Saddam received lavish funding from Gulf autocracies, notably Kuwait, the USSR supplied his armies well, France supplied his air force, Germany provided pesticide plants which could be used to produce chemical weapons, the UK supplied dual use technology such as machine tools for manufacturing arms, and the US provided satellite intelligence. By the time of the 2003 invasion little real resistance could be expected, all this had gone, along with little money to fund an army. The overall effect of US policy on Iraq was to destroy 50 years of economic development. It was a wrecked country that was invaded in 2003. I expected the campaign to last two weeks, about the time it would take to move through and secure the country. It took three, because of the politically loyal Fedayeen groups which tried to put up some stiff resistance in places.
Great analysis. Some Western media tried to compare the two thus creating a picture which shows American military superiority over Russian military and at the same time, to present a false picture of Russian military in this conflict.
NATO has been training 5 battalions of Ukranians every year since 2015. NATO countries have been giving financial, political, diplomatic and military aid to Ukraine for years. Just like you said, Iraq was a beat up country, with heavy sanctions destroying the population and military capability of its forces.
@@MrGolov-te5eb I agree with your comments.
Western narrative try as much as they can to not mention these facts, just like Binkov here, because they want to glorify American forces and Ukraine’s while both Iraq and Ukraine are devastatingly different.
yeah i hope you'll find those WMDs one day
a corrupt pm crash his planes into his country buildings and tell that iraq have WMDs and there is still to this day donkeies that believe this shit
“no civilian population to get in the way”
While compared to Ukraine that is true, I don’t think we should take USAs word for this one. It was more a case of “no civilian population to report”.
honestly in 2003 that wasnt really the case. of course there were civillians killed of that i have no doubt, but at the same time the civillian presence in 2003 WAS very slim. I think people conflate iran/afghanistan numbers of civis being killed with 2003 when it simply wasnt the same.
Big difference to note as well is that in 2003 not everyone had a smartphone unlike today. Every person is a journalist. Russia knows this as well and I think casualties are uncomparable. USA could hide so much at the time, Russia can't hide much.
Not really, it's a literal desert. There's zero reason for anyone being there
@@mrcaboosevg6089 In 2003 Iraq had a higher population than Ukraine today.
Civilians did die during the 2003 Iraq Invasion. However, because the Iraqi military largely surrendered, the collapse of the Iraqi government was swift and did not devolve into a long protracted war like we see in Ukraine today. Civilian deaths in Ukraine was minimal until Ukrainian troops started resisting and Russia had to bring up its artillery and started laying siege on Ukrainian cities.
Another possibility would be "yes men" appeasing Putin, saying what they believed he wanted to hear
This seems highly likely. It happens with Dictators. Hitler, Saddam, and likely Putin, (history will tell) had people telling them what they wanted to hear.
Like everyone in the comment only wanting to hear that Russia is loosing and commenting the same shit multiple times.
In Iraq, logistics was a major factor along with coalition forces consisting of many countries. Also Fallujah alone had over 15,000 coalition troops vs about 5,000 insurgents. Vehicles running out of fuel wasn't common. Air power along won't win much without those on the ground identifying targets. In the US, all branches of the military have aircraft with the USAF, USN and USMC having majorities of the fixed winged aircraft.
It took 2 or maybe it was 3 times US Army had to try to take fallujha , they dont show you but alot of times yankees Got their Ass handed to them
Becose of russians wars, price in our shop is high⤴
Dont buy or sell to russians, then you buy from them you SPONSORing russians world wars🙈🙉🙊
In Syria, Libia, Mianma, Africa, Venesuela...
True. In adition of poor morale and bad logistics in this conflict the russians have the problem of lacking close air support and even close armor support because of those stingers and javelins .As a result they call artillery and as it's more inacurate , the civilians suffer more .
Friends that were deployed during Iraqi Freedom described it as a clusterf*#k initially, as the intelligence said they’d be battling the Iraqi army. Instead they were fighting irregulars. The difference here is they had contingencies to deal with them and good logistics. Even so, the irregulars began to target supply lines after the main bodies had passed. Still, quite a feat to advance over 300 miles in 20 or so days, smoking Saddams cigars and pissing in his gold toilet soon after. I still think it was a waste of good American lives and money, just stirred up a many thousand years old hornets nest.
Russia lacks the logics to invade a country on its own borders….. That so embarrassing. …That like if US true d invading Mexico, and got stopped at Tijuana.
The USAF came in Iraq like a hurricane and dropped that rain and cleared the way for the ground operations. You dominate the sky's you'll dominate the ground.
that hurricane bombed the shit out of the civilians
@@rinneganitachi4840 yes, ofc they did🤣
@@manifestaphillips3574 and the deaths of Iraqis make you laugh?
Should have compared it to the winter war
Binkov may talk about real wars but only hypothetical peace can bring us together
Thanks for reminding everyone how upside down the world is
I'd say this more resembles the Winter War than the given examples.
Yes. Very much so. Except I would argue that Russia is even in a worse position here than back then. Russia doesn't have the capability of fielding as overwhelming force here as they were able to against the Finns. The Ukrainians actually outnumber the Russians at this point in time.
Perhaps a combination of both the Winter War and the First Chechen War.
No not really.
@@KainWT Yeah but Ukraine has suffered 30k casualties and 15k dead. Their conscripts are ill experienced and are not combat ready.
@@eliasziad7864 I assure you the Russians have suffered far more military casualties than has Ukraine
For whatever reason, I always thought that Binkov was Russian
I would rather compare war of 2022 in Ukraine to a Soviet invasion of Finland in 1939.
Russia won that one, they can win this one, too. Слава России!
@@equalityforever302 Finnish winter war was maybe Pyrrhic victory at best for soviets, if you look at the casualties. Its very-very far from what they did during operation Bagration. And Ukraine is no "special military operation", its an aggression, just like 2003 unlawful invasion of Iraq was.
And remember Binkov, this war isnt hypothetical, so only real victory can bring us peace alltogether.
In some ways I agree with this assessment, in others I do not. But one thing seems to be already becoming obvious, russians have not drawn any conclusions from what is happening. Therefore, we will see more burning tank columns, torn-up supply vehicles, more infantry abandoned to the mercy of fate and more than one downed aircraft, whose pilots are told that air defense was suppressed in Ukraine in the first days of the war. But the main question is why is this happening at all?
This so-called operation made sense only in the event of the complete surrender of Ukraine. Getting such resistance, even in those cities that were considered pro-Russian, should have forced even the most stupid politicians and generals to turn on their brains. The occupation of such territory will require a huge number of people, equipment and time. They will also have to deal with guerrilla warfare all over the country, from Kharkov to Lvov. If the calculation was to force Ukraine to sign some papers regarding the status of the Russian language, or not joining NATO, then Russia can be congratulated on the complete failure of its diplomacy. Ukrainians at any moment will break any agreements and treaties signed at gunpoint, and no one can even blame them for this.
I think the worst consequence of this war is the amount of armchair military experts it spawned who completely disregard the economic and political consequences like these. Russia’s international standing is tarnished, it’s economy is fucked, all of its adversaries are more United than ever, their partner in crime is now getting looked at suspiciously looked at because they support them, and they won’t be able to hold onto territory without extremely high costs.
@@arsgoetiashlomoh8303 Yeah, i agree. I said at the start that the best that Russia could hope for is a Pyrrhic victory. and that is if they managed to take the country within a month. Even if they win the war, they are doomed as a country.
@@arsgoetiashlomoh8303 You just described why I thought he woudnt invade.Still doesnt make sense that he did.You can also add Finland and Sweden probably joining nato as a result.
Well they would capture huge gas reserves.. at the same time as losing all their gas customers. Genius!
@@robertjohnston8531 Frankly, this whole story with large gas reserves that supposedly exist in Ukraine is a bit exaggerated. We have quite promising sources of shale gas, but nothing more. Gas reserves in Russia make up about 20% of the world's total. Based on this, I doubt that it is a matter of resources.
It would be wrong to judge Russia's performance by comparing it to invasions such as Iraq but from what I have seen so far, my issues are:
1) Their equipment is old and not maintained. MRE's and field dressing dated from 1978 just kills it. My guess is that this is due to rampant corruption within the military/MOD
2) They can't conduct combined operations. This is due to a lack of training and it's why they're losing so much armour. You need to screen armour with light infantry to protect them from people hiding in a bush with ATGM's such as NLAW/Javelin. Not to mention covering it with air defence to protect from air attack hence these Turkish drones are causing havoc
3) They can't operate both their air force and air defence systems in the same area for fear of shooting their own side down which comes from a lack of data fusion capability.
4) They have terrible morale
5) Their logistics are atrocious
6) They seem to have no real sense of what they're doing both on the theatre and battalion level
7) They don't seem to have well trained NCO's who can react and adapt to changing circumstances in real-time. This is due to a lack of training again and it's why they're having to send their generals and high ranking officers so close to the front which is causing them to get killed. I believe they've lost 7 generals and 8 high ranking officers which is unheard of in such a short space of time
8) They clearly don't have secured comms covering their entire force which is why they're having to use mobile phones which are being intercepted for us to listen to
Nailed it thoroughly. Just beware of pro-Russia fanboys who are now going to try to justify all of this
Russians have logistics, but they didn't prepared it
Russians have low morale only because they don't want to fight against brother people
@@arty5876 LOL, good one
@@arty5876 so afghans were brothers to Russians in 1980s? They seems to have pretty low moral than too. Same on Chechnya. Chechen’s are not Russians most of them were Muslim. Huge moral loss first few months of first Chechen war. This has nothing to do with brothers. Low moral comes from leadership and progress of the battle and war. If Russians took over half of ukraine by now with low casualties their moral would be huge
i like how your comments section is a battleground as well LOL
Yeah, it's kind of strange but intriguing.
I am somewhat unsure if the extremely pro-Russia comments are by paid propaganda trolls, or by Russian state consuming expats.
Most seem sort of hurried and slap-dash, as if they get paid by the comment ... If they get paid in rubles, that might explain it. They need to work at least twice as hard now :)
@@erikbleckhorns2303 putin did nothing wrong lol
I'm so confused about why people think he's pushing forth Russian propaganda... Especially when he's stating that Russia's intelligence and assessments in Ukraine were all incorrect and woefully ignorant
Because it uses a really bad map and says nothing about the complete incompetence of the Russian army. Bad intel aside, they have staggering loses (not mentioned in the video), untrained and undereuiped soldiers, and no plat whatsoever.
because there are brainwashed westerners
@Pluto N. Uranus was thinking that myself
@@player276 Did you read the title? This video is looking to compare and contrast the war in Ukraine to past wars, not do a deep dive on Russia's military shortcomings. It did what it said on the tin.
@@player276 He's not even using that bad of a map. Check out the maps the British Defence Intelligence sector publishes or simply check out the live ua map
If only this war had remained hypothetical
Was waiting for content on this topic, cheers
Actually a pretty balanced and nuanced look at the war. Of course most of the comments calling it Russian propaganda are making these accusations without even watching the video.
I feel the problem now is Ukraine has very little capability to launch large scale coordinated counteroffensives to relieve those encirclements and sieges. Social media coverage is filled with Ukrainian micro victories but is missing the bigger picture. Ukraine is supplied with a lot of defensive weapons that could inflict heavy casualties on Russian offenses, but a strong shield doesn't win you a fight, you need a sword to kill your enemy. Sure it's possible to wait for the enemy to die of exhaustion, but Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq took over a decade to exhaust the United States and that's also a decade of lost economic development and constant suffering.
Big counter offensives is how the Vietnamese wiped out most of their own irregular forces. The 'shield' and a lot of patience was really all that was needed. And the US has the largest economy ever to fuel them. Russia is a poor country with a bloated military. Big Ukrainian counter offensives would be extremely costly. I don't think it would be worth the loss of Ukrainian manpower when Russia almost definitely can't keep a war like this going like the US can.
all ive been seeing so far is russia losing. not just in social media, mainstream media had also been portraying the war this way. weird how reality on the ground is so different to what the media tells us.
the civilian interviews are interesting though. patrick lancaster had been interviewing civilians in mariupol. seems like the russians(and ukrainians) have already defeated most of the ukrainian military and azov forces in that city. the media doesnt report this at all. ukraine military will definitely try to besiege mariupol and capture it. they will probably fail, but i bet media will report the opposite saying russia is losing mariupol. the civilians say most of the fighting between both sides is artillery with some aircraft. infantry battles were reported only rarely. the fighting was mostly shelling. artillery duels between both sides.
Ukraine doesn’t have to mount big offensives, they just have to hold and bleed the Russians as they are doing. With every abandoned Russian tank and BMP the Ukies get resupplied with weapons they are familiar with. The Russians are running a de facto resupply stream for Ukrainian forces.
They have counterattacked pretty successfully NW of Kyiv. Partially cut off something like 10k Russians.
The war isn't happening in a vacuum. With all the sanction Russia is getting it's economy is rapidly deteriorating. War is incredibly expensive, and the Cremlin would not be able to continue the invasion for a long time. From a strategic point of view the russian had to win fast, or lose the war. And they lost it.
I remember in the first few days, the Russians had reached the main Kyiv agglomeration, with desperate urban warfare within Kyiv on Peremohy avenue close to the zoo. That is 5km from downtown. Everything looked lost, and the Russians took control of a strategic hydro dam on the northern outskirts of Kyiv. But they were pushed back within the week. This was arguably the most critical turn of events.
Lol, russian forces were never close to downtown, the closest they were to downtown is 20km at the hardest times.
The fight that happened on Peremohy avenue - their saboteur sleeper cell attacked military unit quarters and got decimated by city defense force.
@@user-mb4xy2cz3t Thanks for the details. It looked brutal.
@@user-mb4xy2cz3t it looked really bad from the other side of the world in Kyiv. But after 48 hours even from this distance you could tell the Airborne and others would never meet up with the armored columns in time, and not much longer to know Russian armor would never enter Kyiv.
I hope you will share your opinion with me. I see two possible outcomes. The least likely is another 2012 “peace” with lines drawn close to where they are now. But I think the more likely outcome is a two year war ending with the liberation of all Ukraine.
How do you see it?
One was a well trained, well equipped, well lead and well motivated professional fighting force.
The other is a bunch of conscripts lead by corrupt generals using outdated equipment and tactics.
One thing is that out of the 9 "proper" general staff members of Russian army (that is colonel-generals and generals of the armies) who all were very successful in Syria only 1 has been proven to take part in Ukraine's invasion (Gerasimov). While 2 others retired and 1 is on current deployment in Kazakhstan it is utterly perplexing why Russia didn't engage its 5 most senior and efficient commanders yet and instead deployed 20-something major and lieutanant generals who are junior and did not participate in Syrian campaigns.
And Gerasimov got taken out too
Torture of Russian prisoners of war by Ukrainian soldiers
ruclips.net/video/xIEk2_T1Ks0/видео.html
@@BillyTubememe Good catch, but not that Gerasimov though. Killed one was Vitaly, 1 star major general. The big dog is Valery Gerasimov 4 star army general and chief of staff.
I am trying to piece it together and find some logic behind Russian isolation of their senior leadership from warfare.
@@terro3842 true true.
Good luck with piecing stuff together. It's a mess. If you find something, please share!
More Iraqis actually fought than expected. They surrendered in greater numbers during Desert Storm. The US units were told to prepare for mass surrenders during the 2003 war, and ended up having to fight more than planners initially expected.
More Iraqis fought in 2003 in comparison to 1991 numbers
But the inital Iraqi resistance was still very low especially with the bad infrastructure after 12 years of sanctions
So no Ukraine has a much better situation than Iraq also Iraq faced the most powerful airforce and army with Britian, Poland, Australia and many other nations *INCLUDING UKRAINE ITSELF* ironic i know
Ukraine on the other hand is facing Russia alone and Ukraine gets Military intelligence and weapons from super powers something Iraq didn't have
And on top of all that Russian strategy is very bad so Ukraine is lucky
@@KingdomRepublic
I made no comment about Ukraine or it's situation. I'm merely pointing out that the Iraqi resistance in 2003 was greater than encountered during Desert Storm, and that he incorrectly states the nature of the Iraqi resistance.
@@counttrackula1289 Everything in the video is being analyzed in comparison to the Ukraine War. And yes, maybe some troops in Iraq did resist, but nowhere near the same scale as the Ukrainians.
That said, Iraqi Army by 2003 was a mere shell of what ot was in Desert Storm. If I remember correctly, it's military had actually since shrunk. That means less troops available to surrender.
Also, Iraq suffered much higher casualties in 1991 than they did in 2003.
@@taoliu3949 Again, you're making points and arguments that weren't a part of my comment.
But to address your claims, there were more enemy combatants in Baghdad in 2003 than Ukrainian fighters in Kyiv. More military hardware in an around Baghdad as well.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Baghdad_(2003)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kyiv_(2022)
The biggest difference is the Americans were able to make it to their objective. The Russians broke down and ran out of supplies before they could.
He still mischaracterized the resistance in Baghdad, as yourself has at this point.
@@counttrackula1289 ??? Your comment itself is a direct response to the video, which talks about the Ukraine War and compares it to the 2003 Invasion.
Iraq had more troops defending Bagdad than Ukraine in Kiev, but the same goes with US/Russia. Troop ratios were roughly proportional. And like I said, Iraqi resistance was minimal compared to Ukrainian forces. Iraqi troops largely surrendered/deserted after 6 days of combat. They did not fight for every inch of the city like the Ukrainians did in Kiev. US troops were also able to successfully encircle Baghdad and conducted weeks of bombardment before conducting their assault.
Got to love the Commiboo's in chat clinging on to whatever they got left.
They spent half as much time walking fuel to the front line as they try to propagandize the west they may have won by now.
And what do you cling on?
Are you trying to cancel them commiboo's like you cancelled JK Rowling?
People were saying Russia could be in Kyiv in 2 days and Berlin in 1 week.
Ukrainian Nazis mock and kill Russian prisoners of war ruclips.net/video/iP8dpXlbG5Y/видео.html
For the sake of justice, russian have been in Kyiv, but they got their @$$ kicked 😂
@@ilkinShakh ran like gringos in kabul
Having 500 kilometers more Frontage than Barbarossa but 3 . 5 million Less men then Hitler is quite an achievement . Add the fact that mobilized Ukraine after 1 month already has a 2 to 1 and increasing numerical superiority and is operating on the Strategic inner line and the outcome is clear.
I know he only had so much time but I wish he also compared the Afghanistan army in terms of corruption. Although not to the level of higher up military leaders corruption, is still pretty bad.
It’s like a weed that infects everything and we’re seeing it unfold before our eyes. Trucks with poor tires due to lack of maintenance, more modern tanks with decades old ammo, expired MRE’s and literal cardboard replacing what was supposed to be explosive resistant armour on its side, vehicles running out of gas, etc… This isn’t something that can be fixed quickly. It would require a purge of all corrupt officials which I don’t believe Putin is capable of.
ruclips.net/video/wf9jGzOnO28/видео.html
Dictator Putin CREATED all those corrupt generals. Oh the irony!
#Putin4DenHaag
Ukraine isn't lesser corrupt, than Russia
@@arty5876 Well, at least Ukraine can still fight. Russian army can only fight against civilians.
“Remember Binkov may talk about hypothetical wars but real peace will bring us together”
No not this time, this one was real.
I hadn't given enough attention to researching the beginning of this war. I was probably like many others who took much at face value but recently channels like this have helped me come to my own conclusions. Now I study so much more. I love these RUclips channels! Thanks for the clear picture of the Ukrainian war in terms of the beginning up until recently.
I commend how unbiased this video was , really interesting assessment !
Binkov among many others making these military scenario videos assumed Russians to be quite highly trained, pretty well organized and in close parity to NATO, but this war has been a case of every single one of those points being proven false.
tbh Binkov’s credibility has taken a huge hit with this war. Watching this video, the map in the beginning isn’t even correct, Live Map probably has the most accurate map for the war, many of those “encircled pockets” don’t look that quite encircled when looking at actual events, Chernihiv has supply lines and Ukrainians have pushed Russian forces away from many positions, like Mykolaiv, Irpin and Makariv. The Estonian soldier RUclips channel seems more informative for the events on this war.
@@MysteriousKaos I think it’s because these videos take time to animate, so they have to make rough drawings with conflicting information, I’m guessing once this is all over their map quality will go back to its usual standards
Nato and Europe was actually concerned about Russia 🇷🇺 Invading them America also This is not the Soviet Union Russia Military is a bunch of Crap even Cheap China is Laughing at Russia
@@MysteriousKaos binkovs analysis of how an invasion might play out was the most accurate one I saw on the internet. Imo, it increased his credibility.
It just looks like most people here are emotionally invested in Ukraine, so don't like to beleive anything positive about the Russian military.
@@yayayayya4731 Oh ,please tell me what positive you find in russians?
One thing i disagree with: Ukraine not being prepared. Ukraine was immensly prepared for the attack. As a fact, ukraine has stated (doesn't need to be true) that it knew that the invasion would happen since november. Arestovych also predicted this attack years ago. Why the progress was so fast in the first days? Because no major city is at the front line, only small villages.
Documents from NATO and Ukrainian govt confirm that Ukraine was preparing a massive operation against separatist republics with the support of NATO. Russia would've had to sit back and watch its people be slaughtered.
Ukraine has been after all bombing and killing civillians in donbass for 8 years.
@@StefanHaasbroek Yes, because its a war that russia started.
@@unatco6554 No lol. The things the MFA of Russia posted were just bullshit. They were about relocating some battalions to near Lviv. Thats in the west of ukraine. Stop believing russian propaganda.
@@fleekrushyt9410 LMAO they were relocating 200k troops to the Donbas just because? Coulda said the same for Russia and many did. Its just too bad that Russia saw through the ruse first. Eastern Ukraine WILL be Russian and the west will be powerless to do anything about it.
Russian logistics. LMAO. That's why they're shipping 50 year old trucks to the Front on rail cars.
Those 50 year old trucks are probably better built than most crap that is built today in this economy of planned obsolesce.
Rail cars are the best way for logistics in that region as it gets extremely muddy in that region for most of the year
Non-existent logistics.
@@skitidet4302 Not Soviet trucks.
@@H7B2ify Is that why Russians are trying to use roads? The first thing Ukraine did was blow up all of the rail links in the north. Russia simply cannot project power beyond 90 miles. It's a paper bear with crap command and control, and not nearly enough logistics units to support itself.
Heard a rumor that the biggest weakness of Russian Tanks is they have the hots for Ukrainian Tractors and follow them anywhere.
I read a single ukranian tractor single handedly took out 8 Russian tanks and two Russian helicopters in the last week
These people are warriors 💪
Ukrainian tanks are also very fond of massively surrendering to Russian tractors! ruclips.net/video/-nowxyQkTKs/видео.html
Taking territory in a war is usually the easy part. The hard part is often controlling and keeping the territory that was taken.
Well russians didnt even made it beyond the "easy" bit :D
Mass rallies in support of Ukraine take place every day in occupation Kherson. Almost none of the local authorities agreed to cooperate with Russia. And so absolutely in all parts of Ukraine. Russia wanted to destroy our country in a couple of days, but everything can end up with Russia destroying itself with this war. And i hope on it.
@@NeuroScientician - True. That's why put the word "usually" in the my comment.
Even with a assumed poor Ukrainian military readiness, tanks not having enough fuel merely DAYS into the war, Russian units not even knowing where they're in Ukraine or that they're no longer in a military exercise and they're now in a REAL war, etc etc is just ridiculous on the Russian military end.
I guess Putin valued counter intelligence and surprise more than keeping his soldier informed. It is a pretty stupid line of logic but it is a line of logic.
You have to remember much of what you see in the News cycle does not reflect the reality on the ground, most strategic organizations have admitted that it's likely that "It's a training exercise and we don't know where we are" is Standard Denial for Russian troops, a way for soldiers to avoid personal responsibility for wrongdoing. We've also seen quite a lot of Ukrainian propaganda surrounding Russian troopers, there are many cases where Ukrainian militia and even regulars have taken photos of their defectors or even unrelate civilians and claimed them to be Infiltrators.
Ive been listening to their comms ( unsecured) they're fucked and troops seem to be turning on commanders in mass
@@joshcovey9558 No wonder so many of their military commanding officers gets sniped.
We were in Baghdad nocking down Saddam’s statue in 3 weeks, not even close.
This. The first 2 hours of the Iraq war had way more action than the total current Russian invasion, due to the volume of participants. With a plan. With understated power. In current wars, having a large amount of soldiers doesn't prevail over tech. NATO got a chance to try every toy they had and refine them 20 years ago. Other potential global aggressors have not had this opportunity and even though they may have some kind of effective tech, I doubt that on the whole they would be dominant in a current battle vs a seasoned group of enemies.
And that war was every bit barbaric and unjustified as russias invasion.
Bush and putinboth will rot in hell
AFTER starving Iraq for 13 years and buying off their commanders.......after the statues are gone the real JHDs come
@@emilegriffith1473 NATO is more barbaric than Russia can ever be. It's like, Russia is a kitten compare to NATO being a leopard.
@@elmermatthew6796 how is NATO barbaric?
This one was not so hypothetical, bit it was great to hear you're take on it Binkov!
I think the bigger issue going forward is an endgame that is acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine. Even with reduced war goals, I can not imagine that Russia wants less than:
1 - Ukrainian Neutrality
2 - Water for the Crimea
3 - Recognition of Crimea and the Donbass Republics
4 - Extended borders in the Donbass and perhaps Crimea (to ensure water supply)
The problem is that from Ukraine's standpoint:
1 - Sure, but what is the security guarantee going forward? UN Peacekeepers would that be enough?
2 - Sure, as long as I can bill Russia for the water.
3 - Maybe, but this was in place unofficially before the war.
4 - No way.
I think security guarantees and territorial integrity are huge stumbling blocks to peace.
Edit: I forgot to add....Russia is on a time clock here. Sanctions are going to get worse over time. Unless something changes Ukraine could theoretically wait out Russia and let it collapse economically while stalemating it militarily.
Problem with negotiations with Russia is that no one trusts a si gle word that comes out of Russian mouths and any agreement with them is seen as worth less than paper its printed on.
I think Russia would want a land corridor between Crimea and the Donbass Republics too. Something Ukraine would not want to give.
Your last point about the sanctions is not entirely accurate.
It’s like this. Russian oligarchs still have control of their wealth. Yes, some real estate and yachts are captured but these weren’t cash flowing enterprises. The cash flowing enterprises are secret. This means Russia can still sell the oil it must and gain materials through its control of Central Asia and relationship with China. This means that Russia can still bombard Ukraine while it reconstitutes its forces. The sanctions have to assault banking enterprises in the west, to stop the cash flow.
Your idea about a peace treaty is what would de-escalate the conflict. However only the USA can back Zelinsky for peace. And I am not sure what the USA agenda in fact is.
Mainstream media says that Ukraine is winning and holding Russian back. If you examine what is actually going on, Russia has achieved key objectives in the East and now going into phase 2 of their plan. The longer Ukraine wait for a deal, the less land they will have in the end for negotiation.
recognizing fake republics, Crimea and occupied lands would be the last thing Ukraine would ever do
Some considerations:
Note that the German army in 1941 was mainly an infantry force marching on its own two legs, limiting the scope of potential envelopments created by the relatively few panzer and motorized divisions, while the Russian army in 2022 is not only motorized but basically completely mechanized. Still, the Germans managed to advance a lot further back then than the Russians are doing now. Frankly, comparing army size and airforce ratios, I simply do not understand why the Russians have failed to create numerous encirclements, not least regarding the major Ukrainian troop concentrations in the Donbass - which may or may not have been grouped to invade the two breakaway republics prior to the Russian invasion - basically by cutting the country in two halves from north to south by now.
A better comparison than the initial stages of Barbarossa might in fact be the numerous Soviet Army offensives fought in the Ukraine in 1943 and 1944, for example the 3rd or 4th Battle of Kharkov. And yes, in early 1943, Operation Star, which was launched on the 2nd of February, largely following the same axis of advance as the Russian 2022 invasion, managed to take Kharkov on the 16th, while the Russians today are still struggling to encircle the city, more than a month into the campaign.
regarding your first paragraph
Ukrainian combat readiness and the soviet's in 1941 is not comparable
also individual groups (hell even single soldiers or pairs) can do far more damage to advancing forces than a similar sized formation could do in 1941
I think the encirclements are struggling because the mechanised forces have to advance along the roads. Of which there aren't many. This of makes them easy targets for nlaws.
Plus morale is terrible and combined arms is really difficult.
@@JD-wf2hu Roads were even worse during Operation Barbarossa.
@@rodi8266 You're right about the combat readiness. In fact, I don't think the two situations make for a very great comparison. Yes, small numbers of infantry can do greater damage to armored fighting vehicles today than in 1941, but that has basically been the case since the 50's, and especially with ATGM's since the 1960's. The answer is to use indirect fire and combined arms tactics in close co-operation to mostly suppress/neutralize the threat beforehand. The open terrain of the Ukraine should have provided the Russians with ample opportunity to do so. Had they moved and operated as expected on a tactical battlefield, that is.
@@Rattlepiece sure, but small teams of dudes on motor bikes couldn't stop tank columns. Or if they could the Russians didn't have any. It's not so much the quality of the roads as the predictability they cause.
I suspect though that morale is the largest single factor. The Nazis had high morale, modern Russia certainly does not.
The best analisis so far. From a tactical point of View.
Remember winning the war is one thing Russia, winning the peace is another, when the people of the country you occupy hate you.
All Ukraine needs to do is not loose.
Russia is wowfully unprepared for this type of conflict. It's armed forcess simply aren't organised and resourced for it.
What? For one Donetsk and Luhansk will be independent and they already love Russia. Crimea has already been part of Russia for years at this point and there’s no problem there. And then the rest of Ukraine will either still be ruled by Zelensky if he agrees to peace terms or Russia will install a new leader for Ukraine after the war. I guess theoretically there could be a civil war afterwards in the western part of Ukraine but everywhere else will be fine
@@MrFredstt firstly Russia cannot take Kyiv, it's tried and failed, so no new government. Secondly tho break away regions are still not under the full control of Russia. And thirdly Russia simply hasn't got the armed forces to take and hold Ukraine. It would need 400k to be an occupation force, and be prepared to spend lots of blood and treasure in the process. Of course the rest of world will continue to supply food, medicine, weapons and other resources to enable Ukraine to keep resisting, so effectively pitting the resources of the world against Russia, a country with a failing economy, which in GDP terms is the size of Canada, Italy or Texas.
about a year ago binkov made a vid that said that Russa could make it into france if they went to war with nato.
When?
@@MartinRichardi About a year ago... as he said.
Yea I’ve always personally thought if they did Poland and maybe eastern Germany/polish border is as far as they would of got before being stretched to far. Binkov was very biased to Russia in my opinion.
If this is the video I am thinking of it was the Wasaw Pact in the 80s, not modern Russia. Kind of a difference there, drop bear.
I digress, while I would have never said something like that given Russia's population is on par with Japan and they clearly are behind technologically... if you had asked me how a Russian invasion of Ukraine would go before this year I would have said Russia stomps within a month with less than 5k casualties.
This entire experience has been eye opening. It is like Russia has learned nothing watching western countries wage wars over the past 30 years and are still stuck in a cold war era mentality. And they really have no excuse for it.
@@michaeledmunds7266 i mean what video? Also he posted a video a month ago, predicting this
I literally can not understand how Russia is failing to score even Air Superiority (which is below the total Air Supremacy which I expected).
It's called Stinger. And the even better StarStreak is on it's way.
When every aircraft you fly below 5000 ft gets 5 stingers thrown at it it gets tough
russia achieved air superiority. Just because your trashy media says otherwise, doesnt mean its true.
Ukrainian aircraft are not fighting Russian ones, so Russia does have air superiority. They do not have air supremacy because of stingers.
@@silgen No its called Kub and S-300 Ukraine has in their arsenal
"Binkov may talk about hypothetical wars"
You may need to update that outro
Binkov talked about real war. 🤭
IMO the Russians lost their window of opportunity in 2014, back when the Ukrainian army was still relatively small and had just older equipment and very few combat-ready formations. Between then and now, the USA has pumped a lot of money and training into the Ukrainian army, waiting to inflict an Afghanistan 2.0 on Russia.
Yea and America’s sanctions?
@@kkkhan7052 Russia has already built financial alternatives together with China. USA is going to sanction itself into a corner and reduce the relevance of the Dollar by going after everyone who is opposed or non-aligned to them.
Poland, Lithuania and UK was providing training... not as you claim USA. And Russian army was as bad in 2014 as it is bad in 2022. If they suck so badly after 8 years of preparation and extra ground that they managed to control for so long how would they do any better in 2014?🤣
Yes Ukraine lost its Soviet era training and its using NATO know how today, but Russians incopetence were as great or ever greater in 2014...
@@kkkhan7052 Russia did impose sanctions. On Biden's dad and a couple of other officials.
Exactly my thoughts
The problem is a very old Russian issue: Fear of telling the leader bad news. I think it started with Ivan the terrible who had a habit of shooting the messenger and have continued with Tsars and Soviet leaders and up to Putin.
Intelligence and generals were likely afraid to tell Putin the real situation and told him that the Ukrainian people would welcome the Russians as liberators when in fact the opposite were the truth so Russia planned according to that.
History is filled with leaders and generals who acted on wishful thinking. Monty's "Market garden" during WW2 were such a case and so were the German "schlieffen plan" during WW1. Reality have a habit of crushing plans based on wishful thinking though.
Russia have gotten themselves bogged down in a war that could take years while getting their economy crippled by Western sanctions. And it is pretty hard to pull out and still stay in power for Putin as things are now.
I don't think Putin is insane or stupid but he acted on information that wasn't true and he expected the west to react the same way they did after he invaded Krim. The only possible way I could see him getting out of this now is to pull back his troops to the 2 areas he claimed he was to "liberate" and to get some kind of cease fire.
Russia is good at developing new arms but they have been bad to actually produce things like the Su-57 due to a poorly managed economy and massive sanctions does not help there at all. The extreme cost of this operation mean they are running out of vital arms like cruise missiles and can't replace them.
In short: The Russian economy wont stand this for long. Western investors are pulling out at a speed we haven't seen since Castro took power over Cuba in the 50s, Russian exports are shrinking and even Germany seems to be trying to get rid of their reliance on Russian gas.
Russia could eventually defeat Ukraine but the cost of doing so would be immense and the cost to occupy Ukraine would be immense. They are also risking a new revolt in Belarus and their own economy to collapse.
“Kick the door down and the whole rotten house falls” -Putin ironically
In this case they kicked the door, went in. And the house falled on them
@@luismarcialvergaradiaz5363 lolololol 😂 “Boris hold my vodka”
@@luismarcialvergaradiaz5363 More like a spiked club made contact with their faces
How can you win a war when your army is the 3rd strongest in Ukraine behind the farmers.😆
1st class thoughts and counter points.....thankyou for sharing
I think a better comparison would have been the Winter War.
The more time elapses the more time Ukrainian conscripts have to train under battlefield conditions and the more effective they become. The situation is becoming increasingly difficult for Russia.
Same for Russian conscripts, and Plus Russia bombs training centers killing hundreds.
Or the more they get hit by missiles while they train in the field the less they want to fight.
@@abroralibekov6924 at the Moment, the ukr Art is much more deadly ;)
-
And u are right: rus soldiers don't lose there will there will to fight.
There did not had that will right from the beginning 😋
@@eliasziad7864 Russia didn't mobilize yet. Until they do every minute is a minute Ukrainian reservists are trained and organized while Russian are not.
@Robert Kruse Or the Russian soldiers were instructed that in case you get caught, say that you were told that we have millitary exercises and not war. That makes the Ukrainians feel bad for you and not treat you badly in captivity.
I guess the hardest part of being an Autocrat is to get accurate intel given to you. (Staring at China too)
so true
Shooting the messenger is a well-known phenomenon in Russia.
@@cacogenicist Are you talking about the potetially poisonned Ukrainians negotiators? Haha I really doubt it's the Russians though.
Funny world we live, of all the strategic analysis videos I could find here on YT the one presented by a frog sock puppet is one of the very best.
Russia isn't just fighting Ukraine. They are fighting Ukraine with half the world's economy supporting it and cutting off Russia.
It's not the first time they are doing something similiar.
Which is effecting the western economy worse than Russian one
US vs RU remove nukes, RU would last 5 to 10 days, if they lucky....
Yeah they are the real killers!
Has the USA won any wars in the last 60 years?
@@lino9222 if their top military officials are to decide alone without the care for civilian lives, the US can obliterate multiple countries simultaneously even without the use of nuclear weapons.
@@lino9222 Yes.
- American intervention in North-West Pakistan
- Operation Ocean shield
- International intervention in Libya
- Operation Observant Compass
- American-Led intervention in Iraq
- American intervention in Libya
- Intervention in Haiti
- Kosovo War
- Gulf war
- US invasion of Panama
- Iraqi no-fly zone enforcement
- Tanker war
- Bombing of Libya
- Invasion of Grenada
- Korean DMZ conflict
- Dominican civil war
After 1962.
In battles outside of Russia certainly, but the invasion of Russia by the USA would not be possibly.
Had the Iraqis been given advanced anti tank and anti air missiles, the US would have struggled a lot more
On top of that, had the Irakis were not under sanctions for a decade, it would be basically impossible. The US destroyed the entire Iraki infrastructure in the first gulf war.
@@RMMLz Iraqi are low skilled as well
@@rogue__agent5884 WTF are you talking about? This isn't a frickin game. I'd like to see how 'high skilled' you are when you have nothing but a rifle against tanks helicopters, missiles and fighter jets. Take your racism elsewhere
@@masterblaster4784 wtf are you talking about
Iraq military was low skill with outdated equipment
Wtf does racism have to do with anything?
@@rogue__agent5884 You said Iraqis were low skilled, not the Iraqi military. Calling Iraqis low skilled is definitely racism
Very good analysis.
Jan 2022: Russia has the second most powerful Army in the world.
Mar 2022: Russia has the second most powerful army in Ukraine.
If that were true, the Russians would have been pushed out by now
@@sergiobarrio328 2nd best doesn't mean insignificant.
@@sergiobarrio328 not how it works.
Name me any other war between nations where the attacking force has a 32% chance of their Generals dying in the AO
aka 1/3 of their generals died, Jesus christ
@@charnq4766 Those are just the ones confirmed so far. We havent gotten into whether there are deaths that have gone unreported
Some medieval wars maybe where even the kings went onto the battlefield.
@@RandomGuy9 those were usually captured and ransomed
Men stop trying to justify it you were the one predicting sweeping victories before it all started
Honestly, Everyone predict a sweeping victory like what happened at Crimea. Even US offer Zelensky asylum. Which we all know made the Most badassest quote from this conflict "I Need Ammunition, Not a Ride"
Looking at the treatment of Ukraine by Russia over just the last century it is hard to see why anyone would think Ukraine would welcome the return of Russian oppression and exploitation willingly. ... Go back across the centuries of the unique Ukraine culture starting before Russia existed and it's even harder.
HOI generals coming in hot
Comment sections of this dude's videos are always full of such bullshit from all sides that I think these people are trying to match Twitter in toxicity, not that they will manage to, but they certainly are trying.
The Iraqi military had previously been weakened during the original Gulf War which made it easier for the US to invade in 2003.
Also, neither Iraq or Afghanistan had international support when they were being invaded. Ukraine on the other hand, has received weaponry and training from the US and NATO for 8 years.
Therefore, the Afghan and Iraqi resistance to invasion is more impressive.
Unlike the U.S, Russia is literally invading their neighboring country, which leaves no excuse to why they are having such logistical issues. The west only started sending in more aid once it was clear Russia wasn’t going to steamroll Ukrainian forces. 200+ Russian Wagner mercenaries were obliterated by u.s forces a few years ago. U.S air and naval dominance is unmatched.
@@therant311 Most of the aid came before the war. so you are wrong.
@@tetraxis3011 Most of the aid that came before the war was training. Western countries REALLY turned Ukraine's military into a fighting force. If Russia is struggling this much against ukraine, I doubt it would hold any water against an equal western country.
@@tetraxis3011 but not on the level that of today
I agree but if Iraq and Afghanistan kicked America ass eventually then Russia will not stay long in Ukraine even if they win
I was considering the closing line: "Binkov may talk about hypothetical wars..."
Well, dear Binkov, you can change that now: the war is hypothetical no more, it's a fact.
This is why I love RUclips, it's such a gold mine of true and honest information! General puppet hand here is a veteran of 1000 wars, gold mine! Comment section is full of majors and lieutenants, battle hardened arm chair veterans, so much knowledge and experience can be gained here!
the perfect comment doesn't exist -
The single most bizarre conflict of the modern era - utterly confusing - nothing but intentional disinfo and obfuscated truth for 4 weeks now
I've never seen anything like it - there isn't a single aspect of this war I get, on any side
From unsupported armour to arming civilians - the whole thing is one massive, confusing mess
Maybe in a decade or so the victors can write an excellent history on how they were correct
As it always has been
@@Doomer1984 you know it ❤🍻
Missed the most important part of all of these 3 wars.
Communications.
In 2003 the US successfully destroyed the communication-centers of Iraq. That made resistance basically impossible.
Barbarossa was aiming for Russian communications as well.
The Russians in Ukraine forgot that. People literally stream videos of Russian troop movements on their phones. The national guard units that raid behind enemy lines can literally watch their targets on Instagram.
excellent analysis