Analysis of Titan -- a great time to buy? | Akshat Shrivastava
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- Опубликовано: 27 май 2024
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TITAN stock recently gave a 12% fall.
This is the same stock that helped Mr. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala make crores in his wealth.
Is it an opportune time to buy?
Watch the video till the end to understand the analysis:)
PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS NOT AN INVESTMENT ADVICE. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE
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In person meet-up karke kya hoga bhai. Wha pe bhi HDFC Bank aur HUL hi kharidne bolloge aap 😂
t's vital for influencers to openly disclose their income sources through their affiliated companies, including branding, with regulatory bodies like SEBI enforcing this practice. Guys, avoid relying solely on commentary when making buying or selling decisions. Remember, statement like 'I'm creating an educational video; I won't be making purchases' exactly how the perception is build . Stay informed and make independent choices. When evaluating investments, consider factors such as Titan's business model, expansion plans, leadership reputation, and M&A activity. Strength of its competitors. Growing your money is your responsibility 🌱💰. Others may profit through branding and affiliate companies 📈💼.
Summary
1. Over value
2. (38-40)% correction
3. P/E- 84 very very high.
I think you’re wrong there will be a substantial rise in Titan stock value in the near future everyone knows that . Do better .
I agree 💯
Few Points to Ponder on your Analysis:
1. Category Creators will generally lose share but maintain a dominant position. Point is are they still at the forefront of growing the branded jewellery category and if they are more than 2/3 the share, that's good. Other players coming will grow category. This category is all about trust and newness. Huge scope still to unlock in Tier 2/ Rural etc.
2. They may not be dominant in other segments but if they are in top 3 of those segments, they are building a good portfolio. Jewellery apart, contribution of other businesses is on the rise.
3. Margins arent a function of gold price growth alone. Check data of years when gold prices werent as bullish. Doesnt show the same trend.
4. Agree on your valuation point but PE Seems in line with sector. Comparing with other sectors may not be the best one.
5. Financial Performance has been good and recent gold price surge will add to it.
Titan don’t buy gold! It use lease gold! That why it has high ROE and ROCE!
You are play valuations game! Why not focus on growth game?
There are 2 major reasons for titan growth:
1. Underlying asset of Titan is gold. If gold price increases, their asset valuation increases.
2. Titan is able to pass the inflation to the customer. The making charges of gold jewellery is some percentage of gold price (lets say 20%). If gold price increases then making charges also increases. Inflation is automatically pass over to customer without any problem . This does not happen in FMCG and consumer durable company.
One minor reason:
There are uptrends in HNWI in India. And also people are buying luxury items. This leads to increase their sales and profit.
So going forward Titan's growth may slow down a bit but it will keep on growing next 5-10 years.
This is my own prospective. You may not be agree with me.
point 1 is not valid fully, Titan always leases gold and never buys it. If you lease a house and its value increases you pay more on lease not less. Plz do correct analysis or you will lose money in the market
Also people are not buying watches anymore
100 pe is the reason with just 15% growth 😊
Looking at the dumbness of the comments of the "member" community guys, really reflects his target audience. Bhakts
First of all Rakesh Jhunjhunwala didn't invest in Titan thinking of it as a Jewellery business.. it was a Watch company.
Business from Jewlerry grown up from Watch segment.
Today Titan is well diversified.. with caratlane, Taniera etc.
Well analysed as always. I've seen a lot of newbies enquire as to whether or not it is too late to buy assets especially BTC, ETH, litecoin and maybe XRP...most having the intention to hodl these assets. I would say we should prep for all scenarios as the market has always been unpredictable. So boring that new type of analyses are coming out monthly from all analysts and youtubers. I must say trading offers far more benefits than just holding, I will advise traders esp newbies to have orientation of trading before they get involved in it. I accept things are changing and have to be reconsidered by time.... but not just that fast like these analysts and youtubers are doing. I've managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3B'tc to a decent 21B'tc in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to McDweny, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape..
Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing him been mentioned here also Didn’t know he has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, I'm in my fifth trade with him and it has been super.
I was skeptical at first till I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome. I can't say much
I'm new at this, please how can I reach him?
he's mostly on Telegrams, with the user name.
*@McDweny*
6th May, 2024 - Titan - 3284 - next 5 years it will be at least 6568 (6th May, 2029)
Sensible approach towards Titan.I appreciate your calm and detailed explanations.thanks Akshat.
Brilliant explanation Akshat bhai 🙏🏻...mujhe thoda bura toh lag raha tha ki maine aaj 3 stock buy kar liya lekin it's OK. Over allocation nahi kiya. Aap ka sochne ka tarika bahut sahi hai...Mai toh aise socha hi nahi pata. Ab sikh jaunga ...Thank you 🙏🏻
Friends Our Friend is teaching the analysis we have two choices either learn how to analyse or accept the analysis results but no side way comments , Last few decades in market no body opens the discussion , last few years only I am seeing the mouth in the better brains , So no negative comments pls 🎉
Of lately, Akshat has been being wronged so many times by the market and seems to be biased in his videos. That's the reason ppl are loosing interest in this channel. There's a smell of conflict of interest in his videos recently. Sorry, but that's true.
I agree here …. Biased to Indian Banks
As expected we went down a little but AWMKPX keeps everything strong and in place. These guys really know how to be convincing and the preparation all the years was so well done. Nothing will change in 2024 and nothing will come close to this incredible smart one. True believers for AWMKPX will have a good year
Titan works on gold on lease model. Gold prices have no inventory gain impact
I think u are highly wrong to compare with HDFC. Business model and quality of management is quite different. Titan grew not because of Jhunjhunwala but it's quality of product. It took gold on lease which has its competitive advantage.
Many analysts are reviewing Titan as a gold company. There's a term for this which is called product or market myopia where a business thinks they manufacture cars instead of thinking that they facilitate travel. Titan is not a gold company as you think, it's a fashion accessory company. If gold is trending in India, it will sell gold jewellery and if tomorrow lab grown diamond starts trending, it will sell that. Titan has not married itself to gold. This can be understood by knowing that it leases the gold to safeguard itself from fluctuations in gold prices plus moving towards diamond and stone jewellery.
Nice one - Please make full video on this... Thanks
In previous videos u said always book profit from the stocks consistent manner. Accordingly i sold-out 90 nos of Titan at 3800 levels. Thanks Arshat, ❤ now I can again buy Titan gradually, thanks again ❤
Good analysis:
Stay informed: Stay updated on financial news, economic indicators, and company performance.
thanks for making this, Last year learned from you and did my own analysis and bought Titan, now at 25% profit....
will buy in every 10% drop till these wars continue and world stays unstable.
The index has given over 50% return. So actually you have underperformed
Are u selling
@@yerramallaswetha738 not selling but have plan to buy in every 10% drop for 3 time. and I don't expect to make 50 - 100% from jewellery stocks, 30% is ok for me.
Beautiful analysis, Thank you
Congrats for new mic or whatever the changes you have done. Your voice is now much much soothing.
Great Insight Akshat. Thank you 🙏
Titan gold lease par leta hai to gold double hone se usko koi fayda nahi hota.. Titan making charges %of gold amount pe charge karta hai so uska revenue ese increase hoga.
Unfair business analysis.
Due to Q4 results + elections, stock is down.
All global brokrage in their commentry -
Jefferies has hold rating, target price 3500
UBS has a 'Neutral' recommendation, target price 3900.
Goldman Sachs has buy rating target price 3950
Nuvama has hold rating, target price 3867
Emkay Global has buy rating, target price 4150
Kotal has neutral rating, target price 3600.
They are not the analysts. They are the "praise the stock/company" persons.
It’s very highly valued. Don’t love your stock and learn to dump when needed.
100 pe 😊
Thanks bro. Good work. Rational analysis👏
It has fallen by 15 percent since January how can you be so wrong
On Weekly basis he analysed
@@mayurjagtap2591 i missed the part where he mentioned that
His % of fall will be based on his convenience
I've executed the averaging strategy 200 times with HDFC, and now I'm finally in the profit zone! 😅
If you learn 1000 books about stock and explain all this details. Just all thing we need in stock market is only 2 things when to enter and when to exit if you become master in that you can earn like anything
Very good analysis. Me too had same thought today.
you can make video on explaining the P/E and other ratios using titan as case study and how these ration r directly and indirectly related. Also this will help in doing analysis of other stocks for early stage investors.
Thanks Akshat for giving good analysis on Titan. When the risk looks too high and the rewards look to be minimum then better to avoid for time being.
I have a fairly large holding of AMS66P. And 90% or it is because I believe in the asset itself. Its actually the chain that makes me want to dev on top of it and learn Haskell.
Titan commenced jewelry business post 2010, it was a watchmaker prior to that, so do your research before making an a#s of yourself😊
Nice analogy sir
CAPEX bhi Kiya h Titan ne, they are opening stores across the world like the US. I am not debating it but Titan will easily double in the next 5-6 years. But right time pe entry Leni padegi ya phir strategic SIP karni hogi.
Great video. I am ballsdeep for AWMKPX and love your review for that as well
I think Titan(Tanishq) is more of a design company and thus making charges on jewellery make a significant portion of its earnings. Also, It works primarily on a gold leasing model rather than buying actual physical gold. So gold prices in my opinion do not have huge impact on it (I may be wrong). The current fall is due to high expectations from it (reflected inhigh PE) which it did not meet. Similar thing has happened with Dmart in the past.
People check time on mobile phones rather than wrist watch these days.This point provides some hint regarding future price of Titan.
Fun fact - Titan owns a controlling stake in one of the pioneers of lab grown diamond based out of USA
I have watch the video in which they said titan do not buy gold, they lease it. So they should not have much impact on gold price. Also, they can enter lab made Dimond, so this will actually help them increase sale
Thank for the details, i kindly request your analysis on the motilal ocs
2:41
This is exactly what Akshat Shrivastava is drawing since 2021, i think soon he might become a better artist than an investor! 😂
It's not that entire banking sector is suffering since 2021
ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, SBI, IndusInd Bank, Canara Bank, Federal Bank shares have shot up 300 to 800% since Covid
Depends on your finances . 1000$ in AMS66P is 4000 AMS66P if it goes to 50% of ath in 2024 thats a 600% gain. If it goes equal to ath . Its a 1200% gain.
Titan dominates the luxury jewellery market, which is growing much faster than the mass market today. As Indian rupee is going to be depreciated Gold prices will continue to go up.
It will go up but not by that much
Good pointers. I find your advice very genuine n authentic
Akshat .. titan does not buy gold .. it leases . There is a difference
Titan doesn't make money from Gold price appreciation, infact they buy Gold on Lease and makes payment only after the gold has been sold based on the quoted market price that day, so Titan doesn't have to worry about Gold price fluctuation, they are generating most of the profits from making charges on Jwellery.
Thank You Akshat Ji.. Please Make detailed analysis of Asian Paints similar to Titan
at point 7:11 in the video can you please tell where did you get this data
I think the way there is a drastic increase in global debt, there is a high chance that more dollar will be printed by the US govt which will lead to depreciation of US dollar and overall many dependent currencies internationally. This might lead more people to continue shifting their investments into safer assets like Gold which might lead to increase in its value and that leading into increase in Titans stock as well. Correct me if I'm very wrong here.
Sir very good🙏 discussion
Thanks for the learning!
Titan CFO ne khud kaha hain ki market main aur jo competitor hain woh hat jaayege tab margin improve hoga aur management ki aisi nagative baat stock ko aur niche leke jaayegi
If gold businesses are doing / has done good , why is it that ' Rajesh exports ' stock has performed so poorly?
It has nothing to do with gold price. At least study business model o Titan
Titan is not only into jewelry it's in many segment including watches to be major
Watch is too small
Isse yeh nahi pata ki Titan doesn’t hold gold reserves, it follows a lease model , aur yeh apne aap ko analyst kehta hai
Yup he is sharing his view. So please do respect the view. It's up to u for further research
Its not view its trying to defend your actions.
There is a basic flow in this analysis.Titan dosent buy gold so they dont get any inventory benifits.
Good video but titan usually does not Hold gold. It takes on rent.
On what basis Hdfc bank and Titan are comparable? Illogical comparison
Just few days in 2024 seems like AWMKPX did everything right to make sure we will have a very green and strong year and who knows how far that road will go, finding a good one has never been that easy and yet there will be 80-90% or more not having the knowledge at the right time. Maybe my words will help some to understand what is going on
Please analyse us stocks for future investing
I always combine Fib analysis with my trading with Trade The Pool prop account.
7:27
Akshat Shrivastava, if u say that u r betting on HDFC Bank only because of it's 4 years time correction
Why did u invest in HDFC Bank shares during Mid 2021 when it was over 1,550 rupees & there were NO time correction seen in that stock
If u argue that it's becoz of its valuation for which u hv invested in HDFC Bank during Mid 2021 when it was around 1550rs to 1600rs, i would say the valuation of HDFC Bank during 2021 was definitely not undervalued, in fact overvalued at a PE ratio of 29.75 & Price to Book (PB) of 5.10 during 2021 compared to Axis Bank around 22.20 PE ratio & PB ratio of 2.10; IndusInd Bank around 22.50 PE & PB ratio of just 1.70
Now fast forward to 2024, ICICI Bank shares are up over 120% & IndusInd Bank shares are up around 100% since 2021
Whereas HDFC was at 1,600rs in 2021 & currently around 1520rs, which is a loss of 5%
Hi how to join member community and its charges
Retail stocks like Dmart, Trent always attract high valuations.
I am hodling AWMKPX only because that has the right foundation to it
Dear akshat titan take their gold on loan and fully hedge they don’t hold inventory in books hence I don’t see they will have significant gain from gold price
Thanks
Why dont you use log scale when looking at long horizons of time?
Justified.... market share is going to decrese sharply
Neh……. Macro is that jewelry business will get more organized and titan will continue to grow at least along the nifty with a good possibility of an outperformed. So Fit to add on.
Now in south India....there are many players like Malabar, lalitha,GRT, Kalyan....it is difficult for titan to rely only on gold jewellery business
The same story you told for polycab.. after the fall it rallies more than 50%.. I missed it
Yes u r correct, always put money on horses running not sleeping
Technically you are right sir
should i hold hdfc bank it's been 4 years no growth
Got in at AMS66P at $1 but will be holding it till $50. Even at that price market cap is reasonable for its tech.
Akshat, annual sales of Gold in India aprox $80billion. Titan slaes are about $5billion & market cap is $28billion. Gold prices will continue to rise due to geopolitical situation, growing GDP will drive consumption of Gold (more from branded cos). So, this is a temporary reaction. Titan is a safe bet and should deliver 12-15% yoy
If Titan PE is more what about Trent PE. So PE is not the only criteria for determing valuation
Good Analysis
Is good to buy kalyan jewellery shares before results date??
My preferred stock is #NVDA at my Trade The Pool stock prop account.
Your views on Angel one and energy stocks
Titan is not holding gold it takes gold in lease
Hi Akshat , Just wanted a clarification Market cap of a company will automatically increase if the price of the share increases. So how can Market Cap be a factor in defining future course of a share??
Valuation comments- OK
Market cap- dependent on Gold price - Not a very sound logic.
1 lac to 3 - possible but 3 to 6 - not possible - no logic not backed by figures but impressions
You are describing AMS66P on ethereum. It checks all the boxes and has perfect price for entry this weekend.
HDFC bank breakout is being promised by akshat for a very long time .
😂😂😂
Karega karega. Stock Market hai.. 1700 kahi nahi gaya.
It is a good stock and is at good valuation so breakout can happen anytime in next 7 quarters so buy it as delivery and hold, but for that hdfc has to stop posting flat results as well and as a customer of 16 years I have to say their service level is not where it was
😂😂
I am not promising. I am explaining the logic. Now it is your call what you do with it.
Might not happen , all large banks in US have pe close to 10..so
Titan is overvalued as of now. Fair price will be 2500-2600 range. Titan will fall more because of results and current economic conditions.
Solution is use robot order or put alarm simple
Good to accumulate.
Do you think if Titan is able to increase its share in other business(ie diamond, fashion and other jewelry)they have much larger pie to address and hence can grow its stock over the next few. years.
Do we have any video or course for cryptocurrency
It would be great if you could provide some analysis on Trent Ltd. i.e mass fashion segment
Sir super. Neevu beligge help tharane market behave madthide. Neevu use madi indicator bagge ondu video madi sir please.
Ivnu helo mukkal stocks ulta ne aagadu😂😂😂
TItan ,Asian Paints amd other high PE stocks are due for PE contraction and it will take a very long time and such stocks will remain sideways during which the profits and Earning per share may double in next 5 years but the stocks may not give commensurate returns.
Example. ❤ ASIAN paints has EPS of Rs 56 and PE approx 50. Even if the EPS is 80 in 2027 the atock price qill be 3200 at a PE of 40 in 2027 !!
Tiatn ❤ has PE of 80 even if the EPS doubles in 4 years ( from 40 to 80) the stock price will not and at best touch 3200 ( PE 40 ) in 2027 !
❤❤❤❤❤