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Hey, from Ethiopia. I've been your viewer for a while and I think you are the best. I do see some things missing on your report as I am Ethiopian and have a good knowledge on the issue. - The main reason Ethiopia do now want to sign the treaty with Egypt is because they want to include a colonial era treaty that divides the water only between Egypt and Sudan. That is a big no for Ethiopia. - Egypt uses the Nile for growing things such as cotton and rice that require lots of water for export. In the mean time we Ethiopians are unable to feed our own people neverminded exporting .... - The Blue Nile in Ethiopia is a collection of smaller revers that can be diverted easily, we can use that strategy in worst case. Both Ethiopia and Egypt have only one way to win, negotiations.
I am a bit confused, Egypt would face a drought only during filling phase, right? After the dam is filled Ethiopia would have much less control of the drought as the dam reservoir would be the limiting factor, and actually it could be used as opposite, as the water flow would became more stable trough the year during normal production. And for Ethiopia to cause drought would also mean to decrease or even stop its energy production, and that is a huge chunk that will became more and more indispensable as its economy grow. In the end to have the dam is a net positive to all involved, as long as it is not "weaponized". Am i missing something?
Of all the channels in YT that tackles on geopolitics, a channel from the Caspian is the one that always made me stay and tuned in for every video and topic!
This is why I love geopolitics, such a simple issue over a dam but underneath it's filled with complex political intrigue and major consequences for all parties involved.
As someone who lived in UK, South Korea, Japan, China and now in Australia, I would never understand the psychological instability of having nation's major water source being located outside of its own borders... In every countries I lived, they always had their major water sources completely within their borders but looking at the map of Africa, holy shit! that not the case for so many nations actually... I guess that's the difference between borders that evolved naturally over the centuries of struggles vs borders that were artificially drawn overnight. LOL
My great great grandfather was the water sheriff during a tense time in our local history. My family still say "Whiskey's fer drinkin, water's fer fightin". Good luck, Nile river inhabitants.
@@sanjeevdandin9350 Essentially what is meant by the saying is that alcohol is something consumed. Drunkards are known to become violent. But the thing that men fight over is access to water. Such as this situation.
I believe that instead of an open conflict, there will more likely be a proxy war of sorts in Ethiopian Tigray region. Cairo will most likely supply weapons and such to Tigray in order to divert funds and attention from Grand Renaissance Dam.
Well the tigray have already have strangely advanced small arms and the seem to not be running out of ammunition, someones probably already supplying them whenever Sudan do Egypt nobody really knows , the tigray conflict isn't given justice in the video, it's draining the countries funds rapidly and the government has raised taxes as a result, it was said to be a short war that would crush the freedom fighters but it's been months and the Ethiopian army has been pushed back
Egypt would never aid the Tigray , as Eritrea (Tigray's worst enemy) is a strategical ally of Egypt. Also the Tigray can't do anything about the dam since it has already been filled.
Or it can wait for the dam to be built, then just bomb it and wait for Ethiopia to make the next move. Ethiopia will not be able do any major damage to Egypt, they don't have financial power to sustain a conflict
@@theolonius8865 saltwater desalination :) it indeed works as is seen in Israelian case but it produces salt water brine (high salt concentration water) that can damage marine environment important for fishing plus the process is energy dependent.
@@evilmonkeyfromchriscloset1211 egypt has huge natural gas in their sea so they dont need money for financing the problem is they just dont solve this problem and even doing 70 billion$ modern city for 6 million people.xD
@@f.b.lagent1113 While mostly a white elephant, the *Qattara depression dam* project might be a solution. The biggest issue is cost. Either Ethiopia could help with that project, or Egypt could just cover some of the economical loses for the slower filling of the dam. There is options. Being honest, people here in the comments is just picking sides, pointing fingers and labeling them as _"evil";_ but only either for the religion of one, or the color of the skin of the other.
@@rexcolt9742 you're right, I don't understand how our collective problem solving got this bad. Probably incompetent leadership is mostly to blame for why we can't control our emotions and stay rational.
i saw a documentary years back called "the future of water". they covered the topic of how countries are constructing dams along the nile and threw in a side comment on how this could negatively affect Egypt if they dont come to a solution. just seeing the thumbnail gave me the answer to that statement. highly recommend the series - 3 episodes
Egypt uses 80% water from Nile for cotton farming which is water intensive plant. Egypt needs to learn from nations such as Israel for effective/efficient water using technology, Desalination Techniques, etc.
The 2nd filling failed, they intended to fill 13.5 billion cubic meter of water, and they end up filling 3.2 billions. All amount of water behind that failure project that started 10 years ago has succeeded to fill total amount of 8.2 billions, and yet ZERO watt of electricity. Way to go Ethiopia. Let’s see if this project will survive this year flood.
@@josephkhalil1149 if ethiopia wants to finish egypt. Deforestation will finish the nile..not the dam..if egypt think they can stop ethiopia they better not think...I have seen rivers dry..I guess if ethiopia wants to cripple egypt they will just destroy the source of the nile...the dam has no harm
@@OptimusWombat do people like you actually watch the video and have insights to share, or are you just here to criticize strangers for criticizing other strangers for posting stale memes?
Super cool but that'll result in famine and drought somewhere else...they should invest in solar and tidal. Hell they should go all in on desalination tech and be the water source for all of Africa
@@jacobkobald1753 that's true but Egypt can't infringe on Ethiopia sovereignty by international law Ethiopia can build whatever it wants inside its territory besides Egypt threatening military action against the dam would only result in minor delays until the dam is complete
@@JimboShogun0686 not really there were multiple international treaties signed by Ethiopia regarding the Nile and its share from it so why tf should I care about their sovereignty when they have broke all of those treaties and are threatening us publicly, daring us to use military action? Be careful what you wish for I guess
Honestly the ongoing Tigray conflict could be a region where Egyptians arms flow into Tigrian hands to further destabilize the Ethiopian federal government. President Abey was too rash in starting a war within his own nation even though he could have avoided it.
that wouldn’t work cuz it would lose an ally(Eritrea) and flood sudan with refugees . that isn’t smart at all especially with the fat egypt doesn’t have a team big enough to do something like that.
Lmao your funny the war was inevitable the TPLF literally attacked a military and brutally butchered and tortured the soldiers and also TPLF tried to invade a neighboring region. And here you are saying he could’ve avoided it, you better be joking
Any Ethiopian citizen expects their leader to protect the integrity of their country from attacks internal or external. This was an attack and he made the right move to pursue the weyane junta and neutralise them
one can hope... but water wars are a thing predicted since ancient time... Turkey vs Irak/Syria China vs India (and most probably, other states of the Indochina peninsula) Ethiopia vs Egypt Ukraine vs Russia (cutting the canal that provide Crimea with water) and probably more...
World Bank should fund nuclear power plants which will provide equivalent energy to the Renaissance Dam in return for not building the dam that will havoc Egypt. This way Ethiopia can develop and we avoid a war and refugee crisis.
The Nile situation sounds like a Sword of Damocles hanging over everybody's heads. It feels like the past few years have pushed back global peace efforts, and that is damn depressing.
China is a mass production country, the will probably opt to sell weapons and militairy equipment to both sides, whatever path Egypt or Ethiopia chooses China always wins
I feel like the place of battlefield matters the most. Even if Ethiopia ultimately wins the fight, it might not win the war as it has to defend itself from external as well as internal threats
Egypt case is no better the local devid between militarists and the Muslim brotherhood is shown through out the region but the main battlefeild is Egypt, also dont forget the islamist insurgencies in sinai, both countries face external and internal threats
@@A.D.540 i am an arabic speaker who follows the local news covererage all the time, to simply shrug it off as islamist powers have fleed the region is naive to say the least, the muslim brotherhood still challenge sisi coup and have a sizable population that is growing each passed day who support it doing so, the extremists in sinai are attacking egyptian military posts by the hundereds each month... egypt have its own challenges and its not in a better position than ethiopia
@@evanmedi6144Egypt has an absolute control over its territories. Except maybe for section C and D in sinai (which is under firm control as well but not as safe) where no significant military equipment can enter according to the peace treaty. The muslim brotherhood is almost non existing in political scene today. Ethiopia on the other hand is at a full on civil war + it's a federal state to begin with. They're no comparison here. Side note: since we're talking about battlefields, Egypt has two Mistral Class helicopter carriers which are litterly a mobile army. One of which is already deployed near djibouti. Also Egypt has rafal fighter jets that can be fueld while flying. Egypt has the 13th most powerful army in the world while Ethiopia doesn't even make it to top 60 let alone its exhaustion from inner conflicts. I don't wish for a war and it's most likely not going to happen, but if it does, it's not even a fair fight.
It is highly unlikely that these two nations will ever go to war. I think the war sentiment is mostly a western point of view. Yes, there are legitimate concerns but a war will most negatively impact Egypt as it will give Ethiopia the perfect excuse to disrupt or even sabotage the water flow.
True, Egypt cant move the source of the Nile from Ethiopia, but Ethiopia can divert the flow of water to another direction if the GERD is bombed. Who loses more then? Egypt. But both would suffer in such a scenario. The talk and threat of war is not very wise.
@@millevenon5853 How would you be better of off/without your head? That's Nile to it's sources. We Africans should be as wiser as our ancestors than Eurovision erosions. Just sayin.
@@millevenon5853 And also, it is just a Dame, they not holding the whole water or something the Western media hating on. They calling us poor, why they against us when we try to be ourselves, then???
@@millevenon5853 but those aren’t really major rivers. The Blue Nile is a huge river in Ethiopia. Also, remember that Ethiopia is now landlocked, as it lost access to the Red Sea after Eritrea left.
Kenya is a piece of shit country plus Egypt lost battles yes but not wars plus this war is going to be totally different no more horses are being used for wars. By the way Egypt is not going to go near Addis abba Just the dam
It was the British indeed, during colonialism. Egypt’s borders were different before that it included parts of Libya north of Sudan and parts of Palestine
@@Thanagor525 During colonization Egypt’s borders included all of the Sudan both North and South Sudan was part of Egypt reason the colony was split up was because of civil unrest in what is now Sudan.
As long as the video has nothing to do with Middle east they are good. Anything middle east related touching/associated with Islam, his vids are a joke... Just like this one.
No, every video he makes is not a master piece. Look at his analysis of Ethiopia from just before the civil war started. He completely failed to notice any movements on political or social level that would alarm him about a conflict and his whole narrative is peachy.
As an Ethiopian, I honestly don't see Ethiopia surviving 3 years, if that at all. The PM's job is more like walking on a tightrope over The Grand Canyon, that's on fire, whilst doing back flips. From what I've seen and heard, it's the closest thing to impossible that the Tigray region decides to stay with Ethiopia after the war is over. Ethnic tensions in many other areas, notably Oromia have also just been getting worse. It's very likely these regions will side with Egypt out of spite.
Eventho the stakes are low for Ethiopia to collapse but even if it happens with regards to the Nile it doesn't really matter what the other states say or do. Majority of the water around 74%, Originates from a region named Amhara. And the dam is bulit in a region called BGR Metekel, which is historically Amharas land having the highest Amhara population. So with regards the Nile is more of Amhara vs Egypt thing, so if other states secede it wont bring that much change especially once the construction is completed.
I bet you thought Ethiopia wouldn’t last a week when the Tigray war lasted.The government has demonstrated that it could win the war 8 months ago when it captured mek’elle in less than 3 weeks if it was not for international pressure the government wouldn’t have backed away.Remember Ethiopia is under US sanctions so the tight rope I see here is walking the line between the US and China who are both competing for interest ,but the US particularly who is giving Ethiopia a hard time by undermining our national security.
There is no free-flowing river in Suadi Arabia, Eqypt must look at the alternatives because today is Ethiopia tomorrow is Sudan's swelling needs. Innovation will propel them and dependency will destroy them.
Well if Ethiopia is buying French equipment it's through private corporations (that could easily be German or any other nation) with little to no government interference. Arm deals (including planes) on the other are largely negotiated by government even when the contractor is a private corporation. So it's not really that France is playing both sides (or any of them for that matter) but she has arm deals with many nations including Egypt and Ethiopia happen to have chosen a French company for some of the equipment they're buying and probably chose other companies for other equipment from other nation (that don't seem to matter because the country they originate from isn't selling weapons to Egypt?).
Ethiopia remained unconquered during the partition of Africa defeating any European army that came and Egypt has changed hands a lot nd they still think they can beat Ethiopia???
Lets see where the first water war breaks out. Is it Turkey vs Iraq and Syria, Ethiopia vs Egypt, Uzbekistan vs Tajikistan or the biggest one yet, China vs India and Indochina.
@@irishmerit They won’t try anything as long as the feds are around. Putting it bluntly they don’t have the balls so it’ll stay as at most, an embargo war that the feds will likely intervene in anyway.
Shirvan (I hope I'm spelling that correctly?) - I am so impressed with the depth, detail, and historical and geopolitical insights you deftly manage to package in these consistently bite-sized explainers. I'm going back & watching all your videos starting from a decade ago to help me better understand what was happening then and the origins of what is happening now. I'm especially grateful for your attention to your home region of the world, which we neither hear nor understand enough of in the US. Thank you, thank you, thank you.
The statements of there is no treaty between Ethiopia and Egypt and the lack of UN laws for such situations are incorrect. There is a treaty that has been mediated by UK but Ethiopia brings excuses that it is old... There are also International laws for rivers which are used by different countries downstream. Actually what Ethiopia is doing isn't perfectly legal.
Dude Why don't you tell that to your puppet masters who utilize the Colorado River 100%. and you bitch about when we take 13.5 billion cubic meters out of the 74 billion we give you.
Sudan and Egypt signed the paper your talking about Ethiopia never signed anything because she was not colonized. Your leaders where always sleeves for Westerners and still are.
@@nathanpolk2523 no this amir guy is a weirdo who does not understand geo politics Egypt would never attack Ethiopia a country with 100 million potential destabilizing migrants
I think it would be kinda ironic because there’s a good chance if conflict broke out the Israelis would support Egypt considering the history the irony would be noteworthy
I don't see it happening. Israel can't really pick sides in this conflict since it maintains relations with both countries for different reasons. besides that, the US will probably make sure that they sit down and not intervene
Yes, the peace deal with Egypt is a vital interest for Israel (and by extension, avoiding complete political instability in Egypt). Friendly relations with Ethiopia, less so. Israel would probably prefer not to choose a side, so for that reason, their junior partner in Washington would be required to intervene to separate the two sides (Egypt and Ethiopia).
A chaotic egypt wouldn't help israel, there would be refugees and dangerous players taking advatnge. This could be an opportunity for Israel to ally with Egypt and provide eachother with national security. Egypt might allow Israel to have palestine.
This repost is mostly hype. Ethiopia will fill their dam and Egypt will continue to receive their water down the Nile River. This conflict is like two bald men fighting over a comb.
I am Egyption and I hope Ethiopia and Egypt will reach an agreement that will please both parties and together give the middle finger to France that tries it's best to prove its self and that is the sign of weakness of the French they want to appear in every scene
Well if Ethiopia is buying French equipment it's through private corporations (that could easily be German or any other nation) with little to no government interference. Arm deals (including planes) on the other are largely negotiated by government even when the contractor is a private corporation. So it's not really that France is playing both sides (or any of them for that matter) but she has arm deals with many nations including Egypt and Ethiopia happen to have chosen a French company for some of the equipment they're buying and probably chose other companies for other equipment from other nation (that don't seem to matter because the country they originate from isn't selling weapons to Egypt?).
Well Ethiopia hasn’t cut of their water supply lmaooo. It’s literally just a power move by Egypt. If the Ethiopians did they would be fucked by the entire world.
It's Ethiopia's water supply too. Both sides should be allowed to use it reasonably. When Egypt was filling their own Aswan Dam they did essentially the same as most of Egypt lies downstream from Aswan.
They should be grateful Ethiopia is filling the Dam as slowly as they are doing and keeping them updated. By international laws, Ethiopia is doing absolutely nothing wrong. Egypt has a dam on the Nile to make it more ironic. Egypt's lack of preparation and innovation has nothing to do with preventing Ethiopia from making decisions to lift its people out of poverty. Sorry Egypt, you are not the rulers of the Nile, whatever pre-colonial deals Egypt signed have nothing to do with an independent and sovereign Ethiopia. Egypt should just go do one!
Man! Ethiopia *Can't* fill the dam faster than this, it's not they are filling it slowly!😂 the dam haven't even generated a single watt even after the second fill, what are you talking about!
@@sh9dw Exactly, it hasn't generated a single watt even after the second fill for one reason: Its being filled SLOWLY. Ethiopia is within its rights to fill that thing in one rainy season, but they have morals and wouldn't do that. Egypt should stop throwing its toys out the pram and realize it doesn't own a River that originates in Ethiopia
@@desmondjombe307 that is so funny, because it looks like i follow up your Official's more than you do! Ethiopian president said in last October that the dam will generate electricity in 12 month your Minister of Irrigation said in last April that Ethiopia will generate electricity in August. Ethiopia couldn't fill the dam successfully nor generate electricity. it's not that Ethiopia is filling the dam slowly!
The Ethiopian economy has been grown for years and they absolutely need extra electricity from the dam to keep this growth in coming years. I don't see they will stop the construction.
@@w8stral what religious angle?, Orthodox Christianity and Islam are well represented in all the major tribes of Ethiopia, the conflicts in Ethiopia have been mostly ethnic/regional.
I read an article many years ago titled "The Blue Gold." It was referring to water, and how it was becoming a rare commodity. Turkey is doing to Iraq and Syria what Ethiopia is doing to Sudan and Egypt; and same problems in the region where you'll find Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
@@unknowninfinium4353 One of Uzbekistan's major waterways starts in Tajikistan and Tajikistan wants to dam that river which will cause water shortages in Uzbekistan. So a war there is likely to happen soon
I guess it's meme but wtv. If Ethiopia is buying French equipment it's through private corporations (that could easily be German or any other nation) with little to no government interference. Arm deals (including planes) on the other are largely negotiated by government even when the contractor is a private corporation. So it's not really that France is playing both sides (or any of them for that matter) but she has arm deals with many nations including Egypt and Ethiopia happen to have chosen a French company for some of the equipment they're buying and probably chose other companies for other equipment from other nation (that don't seem to matter because the country they originate from isn't selling weapons to Egypt?).
Egypt needs to watch its step. If they damage the GRD, what is to stop the Ethiopians from doing the same to the Aswan High Dam? If they blew that up, Cairo would be gone, and Egypt would cease to exist as a country. Long term, there will be almost as much water flowing in the Nile after the GRD is filled as there was before. Little of it will be used for agriculture, almost all will make electricity, which should kick start the Ethiopian economy as well as the economies of neighbouring countries, and reduce both external and internal conflicts; people who are prosperous or perceive that they have the chance to achieve prosperity are less likely to fight each other than they are to do business together.
Ethiopia's military is vastly weaker than Egypt's. Egypt can defend themself militarily, Ethiopia can't. Also Ethiopia sells itself terribly internationally. Your representatives in interviews about the dam boil down to "we can do what we please" and in a conflict Ethiopia would have few friends.
Ethiopia doesn't have the capability to launch such an attack the most advanced aircraft in their inventory is 90s su27 and they would get shot down by air defenses before they get close
@@MahdiShibly Its simple, understand how the flood flow, from where to where. Answer is the flood will flow from to Sudan then to Egypt. Now let explain you how it works #1. If you blow up GERD then flood wipe Sudanese Dams and Egypts large Aswan Dam. Then Cairo will wiped into red see. No flood is coming toward Ethiopia. Any way Egypt has not capable enough to blow the GERD and the defiance systems waiting Egypt's air craft to turn into ashes. If Egypt lucky enough to blow the Dam Ethiopia will add some spices on the river at the end of Ethiopia boarder. You know what I mean
Yea very clever, if anyone is to go as low as poisoning the water the world would start to join in, not to mention the water from Ethiopia flows through Sudan dummy.
Its not the first dam in Africa built on a river shared by many countries - Limpopo, Zambezi and other rivers have the same shared heritage. Mozambique needs Zambezi, but that has not stopped the building of Kariba Dam upstream from Mozambique. The GERD has been filled for two years in a row now and Egypt has not been affected. There is water in Egypt and electricity is available. Now everyone can see the data(truth in fact) against fears and anxiety (emotions). This is the reality. 77 billion cubic water goes into the blue Nile from rainfall. Ethiopia says it needs 13.5 billion. The rest will go to Egypt and Sudan.
Date: 30 mar, 2021 ( now as my typing : 30 Oct,2023) two years and 7 months later.. Nothing happened .. Too quiet. And the Dam 's filled up to 4th Stage, 125 metre high.
1st Ethiopia Contributes 86% of Nile water and that is a FACT and has 48.27 % Access to electricity in 2019 while Egypt has 99% Access to electricity, the way I see it the Nile is well enough for all countries it's just we don't have to be Greddy about it and expect Ethiopia to sign a deal which is not mutually beneficial, but no one can tell Ethiopia to stop filling the dam.
Interesting that in the story of the opera Aïda by Giusseppe Verdi, Egypt wages war on Ethiopia - and hence the forbidden love between the Ethiopian princess Aïda and the Egyptian prince...
@@williamkamau1167 Depends on which dynasty was in charge. If it was the Nubian Dynasty, then yes - Black Egyptian Prince. I think the story probably took place in an earlier dynasty, but the opera's story is fiction anyway. In the opera, the conquered Ethiopians were enslaved...
There is no way to hit the damn without causing major floods, and there is no point to damaging the damn to become non-operational because the damn will continue to fill up.
@@Peter_Sokunbi desalination plants won't be allowed by us europeans, sorry, mediterranean sea is also us, egypt cannot turn it into a sterile salamoia, they better just reduce their pops
The Turkish military is squeezing Egypt between Libya, Sudan and Ethiopia. I hardly doubt Egyptians can do anything when Turkey is in full support of Ethiopia 🇪🇹
Egypt best choice would've been Somalia, but they failed Somalia and didn't support them in 2006, they should have deployed troops to Somalia in 2006 to prevent Ethiopia Israel USA to invade Somalia
@@xamael1989 Well, from a political point of view, Ethiopia has almost no political support. Turkey cannot get involved in a lost cause. On the other hand, Egypt has the support of the Arab countries and even some Western countries, including the US. The US. has strategic interests with Egypt, so it's so difficult to blame Egypt in case of military action. From a military point of view, everyone knows that the military balance between Egypt and Ethiopia is not in Ethiopia's favour. The Egyptian army is ranked number 13 in the world, according to global fire. So, Ethiopia's situation is very difficult, in case of a confrontation with Egypt.
Egypt has no legal grounds to attack Ethiopia over the Nile since Ethiopia is not a signatory to any Nile convention. Ukraine has completely cut off water from Crimea, yet Russia has not waged war against them.
Ukraine cut off the water because Russia started a war and annexed Crimea in the first place You wouldn't really like your neighbour cutting off the municipal water pipe and using all of it for himself, would you ?
@@vishalgiraddi5357 Nobody would like that obviously but that isn't to say it is unlawful. They've all the rights of action on rivers within their borders. Ethiopia can cut off to Sudan and Egypt legally, Turkey can cut off to Iraq and Syria. It is a cruel leverage but it exists unfortunately.
Hah! Legal grounds! When your entire economy and even life is at stake, legal niceties are so much hot air. Egypt would have the support of the entire Arab world and most of the Muslim-majority countries. The ruling group in Ethiopia are Christians, which basically means they are on their own.
@Zeyad Zestro Only what flows through your borders are yours technically. You can wage any war you want to my country, it is a regional power that missed fighting anyway.
@@aratirao9007 thanks for the recommendation. I'm not a dedicated geopolitics watcher as I come from a country with many internal problems which is not always directly effected by current events. I watch Caspian Report because Shirvan's presentation is level headed, interesting, balanced and actually quite relaxing, he and his team should be awarded for the research they do into history, culture and politics and the insights they bring across. I'll check out your channel, but I will continue watching Caspian Report. thanks
Talk is cheap. It is not weaponry but bravery. Egypt had seen our might before and will get another biting if it tries war. We say “bring it on, it wouldn’t even take a 6 day war with us.”
@@xstshepo the US has gone a long way to get to that mark, lots of immigration and natural growth over the centuries, but having a population growth of over 100 million people in only 30-50 years??? Holy shit man, that must be a Guinness world record or something lol
@Basleal S people are so spoiled they believe because media headlines broadcast 92% negative media all the time (even if the topic is supposed to be positive) in the US and like somewhere around 70% in Europe. I wished people could calm the fuck down on everything and think rationally, most people in the US/other 1st world countries hasn't experienced anything "bad" before, neither have I. Literally only thing getting people is mental health problems but I mean, all the stories I have heard from 3rd world countries makes me believe that most people are pussies
@@Thenoisyoneyes it affects egyptian population alright. And the comparison is on point, because the problem is not the squabble btwn two poor nations, its the dam as a tech to produce energy and its consequences on rivers
@@mohamedlababidi9042 only 40% of people I. Ethiopia have electricity. They need to build damn to create energy for their people. Why would you chose Egypt over people in Ethiopia. Did the egyptians help Ethiopia in Energy recourses? They don't. Now who are they to demand them to stop building damn. That will benifiting their own people
As it has been spoken by one far greater than us, so it shall be. 5 The waters of the river will dry up, and the riverbed will be parched and dry. 6 The canals will stink; the streams of Egypt will dwindle and dry up. The reeds and rushes will wither, 7 also the plants along the Nile, at the mouth of the river. Every sown field along the Nile will become parched, will blow away and be no more. 8 The fishermen will groan and lament, all who cast hooks into the Nile; those who throw nets on the water will pine away. 9 Those who work with combed flax will despair, the weavers of fine linen will lose hope. 10 The workers in cloth will be dejected, and all the wage earners will be sick at heart.
@@Afalaa You people are fucking delusional. The US is the largest oil producer in the world and out of the 23 oil companies in Iraq only 2 are American. Not to mention, that organ harvesting is not that profitable at all when considering the expenses/lack of buyers and overall poor business model relative to many conventional models.
Great video, thank you! I know you have given Ethiopia a lot of attention recently, but an update on the war in Tigray and possible other internal conflicts would be awesome. Either way, well done!
Would have to go into the Muslim issues and Caspianreport does not touch such subjects even though it is THE DRIVING force in most of the middle east conflicts currently.
Ethiopia doesn't want a deal, Egypt made a deal already that gives Ethiopia 100% of the targeted electricity during the normal flooding years and 80% of the electricity on the drought years (if any) but Ethiopia refused to sign it although USA and EU see it as a fair deal. Ethiopia still procrastinating till today after nearly a decade of negotiations. All I can say is that either Ethiopia cooperates and that would be a win-win situation or Ethiopia will be the only loser, it will not end well for them.
U really think a deal tailored by US/EU is a win win deal? Think again pal! Ethiopia declined the deal for a reason! The last thing Egypt and Ethiopia wanna do is create a military confrontation. Had it been a win win deal, Eth would be the first one to sign it!
@@bamlaktadele3457 it was not tailored by US and EU, they were just observers and it really doesn't matter who makes the deal if it is a fair one. Ethiopia claims the main purpose of the dam is electricity production yet they refuse to sign the deal that gives them what they wanted without inflicting a major harm on Egypt. Ethiopia has clearly showed their bad intentions on that conflict, they wanted to use the dam as a political tool against Egypt which Egypt will never accept and they will have every right to defend the existence of more than 100 million of people. Ethiopia is the side who will decide how this mess will end, a deal with everyone is a winner or a conflict in which the very existence of Ethiopia as a unified nation will be at stake.
Shouldn't Europe support Egypt here? If they thought the Syrian refugee crisis was bad, stopping a potential Egyptian migrant crisis should be in their best interest. In the worst case scenario, 10s of millions of desperate Egyptians might try to cross the Mediterranean within just a few years. There is no way Europe could deal with this.
Turkey is developingf Hisar type Air Defense Systems. There is a good chance to test them by supplying Ethiopia with such system. It is going to be more than a potent response to Egypt's politics.
Turkey’s army manufacturing is not all that plus Egypt trains day and night for such thing not to mention turkey doesn’t like to bother mighty Egypt because turkey will not dare to challenge mighty Egypt especially in such sensitive matter like the water which means life to Egypt. Turkey can’t do nothing in this case . plus most of turkey’s army manufactured weapons are not originally Turkish.
Turkey is trying to win Egypts side because of its Interest in the eastern Mediterranean gas. They would not anger Egypt in such a sensitive topic cause that would just strengthen the already strong. Egypt-Greece-Cyprus alliance. Plus Damaging relations with Egypt means damaging relationships with Rich Arab Gulf Countries like the UAE and Saudi which Turkey can't afford rn cause their economy is sinking
@@mazenlatif6722 There is nothing mighty about Egypt. Israel bashed Egyptians every time they fought. Also Turkey already has bad relations due to Libya.
@@enesbilgin937 Yeah sure, Rank 10th militarly, The strongest power in Africa, defeated Israel and took sinai in one day, Defeated the crusaders, One of the oldest civilizations, I wonder what's mighty about it...
I may not be well versed in geopolitics and how they work, but i find the situation strange indeed. It is understandable that Ethiopia would utilize their part of the waterways to bring electricity and power to rural regions, that makes sense. But at the same time, could potentialy screw over the neighbouring countries agriculture. Have they even considered it? By all means, egypt have all the right to keep that from happening.
Territories and resources. Tale as old as time But in this case, territories as in sovereign holdings that only the holder wants, but vital resources stays the same
To put simply the Ethiopian federal government doesn't give a crap, they constantly say we should peacefully resolve the situation and then walk off as soon as the part about a bidding treaty in talked about, they literally did this btw when Washington was involved and negotiations were on D.C, it's heavily speculated that the damn has a second purpose other than the electricity which is getting water Rights concections from Sudan and Egypt, or forcing Egypt or Sudan to pay for water, this has been a genuine talking point brought up the the most recent negations, and was flat out refused by both Sudan and Egypt Essentially this damn is a big screw you to Sudan and Egypt, although it did have serious benefits for Sudan by preventing flooding, the Sudanese actually supported building the dam in the beginning until the Ethiopians constantly refused the binding treaty which made the Sudanese partly switch sides although the benefits of flood prevention still make it so they haven't completely opposed the damn
@@ziadhaithemamin1431 Well Ethiopia hasn’t cut off their water supply andn never will lmaooo. It’s literally just a power move by Egypt. If the Ethiopians did they would be fucked by the entire world. Sudan doesn’t just get flood protection but also electricity to buy. If the Egyptians destroyed the dam it would cause sever flooding in Sudan leading to them joining the Ethiopians side.
Egypt doesn't want to held at gunpoint with water. I completely understand this and Egypt will have support over this. It's the same with India and China and the tug of war between the mountains of Tibet and surrounding nations. They hold the keys of water security in the biggest nations in the world
Exactly , people think India China are fighting for brahmaputra river but actually they are fighting for the mountains which melts to form the river , having Himalayas India can easily defeat China and USA combined such is the strategical value of Himalayas
having secure water does not in any way mean india can somehow defeat china or usa singly, let alone the two of them combined. tibet has no major industry or resources, nor can it support many people, it give water and thats pretty much it. Also, india is never gonna get control of tibet, china is far stronger than india, the disparity is way larger than between egypt and Ethiopia, an actual attempt on tibet might see india lose entire states.
@@mxn1948 China couldn't even hold on to the few kilometers it sneaked into in the Indian Himalayan region and had to pull back it's military...nor has China managed to capture a single kilometer of East Indian Arunachal Pradesh...and has only claimed to taken 2km of Bhutan's land in Doklam and that too was only because of lack of Bhutanese enthusiasm to support India defending their own territory....India won't likely win in China, but to say China will take "entire states" in India is stupid too and won't be the same as 1962 Indo-Sino war..
Pal Ethiopia might not have negotiated like they got equal rights to the dam but from the outset Egypt was negotiating in bad faith and tryyto uphold the treaties with the colonizers they broke when they nationalized their dam and the suez as what gave them the right to control all water that flows into and out of the Nile. When it was brought to their attention Egypt itself had made the treaty null and void they proceeded to pull out a treaty from the time of the mahdi war which they had also made null and void when the suez was nationalized. The dam is not feed from both of the main Nile tributaries just one thus the biggest issue has always been upstream countries having the right to build dams in their own land instead of the reduction of the water flow. Even in the fastest models to fill up the dam the water to people was not in danger but the one going to the farming sector was to some degree. That said Egypt has a limited amount of rainfall and due to the long links between the Upper Nile civilizations and the river it is understandable why Egypt might feel it rightful and unquestionable owner of the Nile but it rescinded that right the moment it gave international bodies the right to mediate in their affairs.
@@GAndreC Build a hundred dam!, all we need is coordination and co-operation and don't sell the water!, we need a biding agreement between the three countries!
Ethiopia filling that damn as fast as feasibly possible was likely a shrewd call. It has now become a weapon an attack could trigger floods from and in that respect is more important that the army that sits behind it. They have generated their own trump card. As long as they aren't dicks about it I think everyone should settle down over time - actions speak louder than words.
To all Ethiopians .. you havent yet tried the Egyptians brute force .. we are ready to use it whenever we need to .. we support the rights of our brothers in Ethiopia to get a more developed civilization and we are on the path of finding new ways and solutions for our already existing water shortage problems .. we will not allow your rising to be on the expense of our historical rights .. we talk the talk and we can walk the walk .. any conflict with egypt will end badly for Ethiopia and the neighboring countries in the region and by the way although Egypt alone is fully capable to conquer Ethiopia in a matter of weeks.. Egypt will not fight alone .. we have our Arab brothers who are more than ready to fight with us any time .. dont forget Egypt is the leader of the Arab Nations .. like it or not this is a fact.. you have been warned several times .. we Egyptians still dont want this war. Totally preventable if you comeback to your sense. An Egyptian.
"To all Ethiopias...you haven't yet tried Egyptian brute force" Lol you guys have lost two wars against us(battle or gura and battle of gundet) if your country is strong then why did It lose against a country which is 36 times than Egypt? Bro keep yapping okay
Since they already started filling the dam, doesn't Egypt already have water shortages? If not why is it going to get worse in the future and has not already happened?
Egypt didn't have water shortages because Ethiopians couldn't fill the dam successfully in both phases! Moreover have a look on what the hydroelectric dams that were build by Turkey did to Iraq!
@@sh9dw the fuck are you talking about the damn has filled significantly there were no water shortages because we have had 2 concurrent having rain reasons
@@FreedomFox1 because the rainy season this year was much more than normal. That made down stream nations not get affected by GERD. The problem is what if there is a dry season? There is no legal binding to Ethiopia to allow water to flow down stream if there is a dry season. They will use thay water to produce electricity. Egypt and Sudan just want a legal binding where if there is a dry season, Ethiopia is legally bounded to get water downstream and not hog it all for electricity.
@@FreedomFox1 1) As mentioned above, Ethiopia has failed to reach their target filling range for 2 straight years. As a result, almost no effects on the nile were observed. The tensions are sprawling because Ethiopian delegations are refusing any kind of deal that imposes a limit on the dam, thus basically telling the Egyptians to go fuck themselves. 2) This goes beyond the current issue of possible water shortages. The dam is a key to Egypt's livelihood in the future since its a strong leverage point that can be exploited at any time. 3) The whole process is simply a stunt pulled by Abiy's government to try and gain regional and global legitimacy through aggressive powerplay, and bullying Egypt is exactly how they succeed. In fact Abiy's government is hoping Egypt will destroy the dam as it would easily accelerate the unity of all the different factions, something that even Abiy himself has struggled with.
What?! Why so one-sided ? ETHIOPIA had signed treaty of 1929 as a free nation !! ETHIOPIA didn't possess the land which they are now using for the ETHIOPIAN dam until they signed this treaty of 1929 which stated a share of water for each country !! There is an international law for international rivers !! Egypt has the right to demand respect of international law and has the right to defend itself when it's being denied its legitimate rights
Even the dam is built, the water still comes down and is shared with other countries. I do not see any problem for Ethiopia to build a dam to generate electricity. The loss of water by a reservoir is very limited. I can safely say that the downstream will still get 85% of the original water volume.
@@CN_SFY_General Egypt accepts the dam to exist but it's very big so Egypt doesn't want it to be filled in less than 7-10 years to keep getting water in those years enough to live.. You are just trying to miss lead people here.. I really wonder why?!
@MR MAN bias opinion ?! me?! 🤣🤣 It's funny because I stated only facts while you wasted your time already to share your bias *opinion* - This piece of land doesn't belong to Ethiopia if it doesn't recognize treaty of 1929. - Water of an international river doesn't belong to Ethiopia, in all cases.
@@Idleo 7 years or 5 or even 3 years to fill the reservoir can be discussed. The most important factor is the quantity of water that is kept to fill the reservoir. If the quantity is less than 20% of the original flow without any dam, it's acceptable.
Ethiopia is the owner of the water that contributes 87% to the river what #Egypt and #Sudan they contribut to the river is is 0%. So if the Egyptians and Sudanese are wise they should cooperatate with Ethiopia for its peace and stablity not its distraction.
Ethiopia as a nation state doesn't own it - the river has been there since before the creation of these states. People will suffer because of Ethiopia's actions - I'm shocked at the dehumanizing rhetoric in some of these comments.
@@PlRATE Ethiopia gonna destroy itself with this dam after it destroys Egypt and Sudan. Kinda like turkey and Syria. Syria got destroyed and now turkey suffers from them. Turkey’s Economy has fallen and Syria is destroyed. If Ethiopia is gonna use this dam and ruin Egypt they will also ruin themselves.
✔ The first 100 people to go to www.blinkist.com/CaspianReport are going to get unlimited access for 1 week to try it out. You'll also get 25% off if you want the full membership.
Did you travel back in time?
@AileDiablo p
English subtitles please, I need that to watch your video
Hey, from Ethiopia. I've been your viewer for a while and I think you are the best. I do see some things missing on your report as I am Ethiopian and have a good knowledge on the issue.
- The main reason Ethiopia do now want to sign the treaty with Egypt is because they want to include a colonial era treaty that divides the water only between Egypt and Sudan. That is a big no for Ethiopia.
- Egypt uses the Nile for growing things such as cotton and rice that require lots of water for export. In the mean time we Ethiopians are unable to feed our own people neverminded exporting ....
- The Blue Nile in Ethiopia is a collection of smaller revers that can be diverted easily, we can use that strategy in worst case.
Both Ethiopia and Egypt have only one way to win, negotiations.
I am a bit confused, Egypt would face a drought only during filling phase, right?
After the dam is filled Ethiopia would have much less control of the drought as the dam reservoir would be the limiting factor, and actually it could be used as opposite, as the water flow would became more stable trough the year during normal production.
And for Ethiopia to cause drought would also mean to decrease or even stop its energy production, and that is a huge chunk that will became more and more indispensable as its economy grow.
In the end to have the dam is a net positive to all involved, as long as it is not "weaponized".
Am i missing something?
"French planes could end up bombing French equipment" nice words
They would still blame the Germans for it
Nice words.
Catchy words.
but shallow words.
🟤SERCH ADITYA RATHORE- HE ALSO MAKES INFORMATIVE CONTENT LIKE CASPIAN REPORT
@@SL383 Why shallow?
that’s what smart countries do
Of all the channels in YT that tackles on geopolitics, a channel from the Caspian is the one that always made me stay and tuned in for every video and topic!
Amrit Sengupta and Caspian are probably the two best
also "Bad Times Good Times" is a good channel
I’m always so hyped when he drops a video !
Do you guys have more suggestions for other geopolitics channels? I'm trying to learn more about the subject.
@@CarbonMatrixify Does Amirit Sengupta cover regional politics or global? I dont mind regional politics just curious.
Last time I was this early South Sudan wasn't even a country!
Wild and sudden Sudan and S. Sudan appears, unexcepted but also expected considering the topic
Next time you comment, Ethiopia will be 10 countries.
🔷SERCH ADITYA RATHORE- HE ALSO MAKES INFORMATIVE CONTENT LIKE CASPIAN REPORT
@@bakr6405 Ethiopia is not banan republic!
@@downunder8883 It is actually the best example of a banana republic
This is why I love geopolitics, such a simple issue over a dam but underneath it's filled with complex political intrigue and major consequences for all parties involved.
Less stressful than watching local and national politics.
you are actually saying i love how conflicts occur between humans that can lead to disasters. wow talk about high level of humanity.
As someone who lived in UK, South Korea, Japan, China and now in Australia, I would never understand the psychological instability of having nation's major water source being located outside of its own borders...
In every countries I lived, they always had their major water sources completely within their borders but looking at the map of Africa, holy shit! that not the case for so many nations actually...
I guess that's the difference between borders that evolved naturally over the centuries of struggles vs borders that were artificially drawn overnight.
LOL
@@PrideDefiler intelligent valuable observation
@@yahiaaymen7876 People can enjoy the macabre, because the macabre is interesting. get over yourself.
My great great grandfather was the water sheriff during a tense time in our local history. My family still say "Whiskey's fer drinkin, water's fer fightin". Good luck, Nile river inhabitants.
So one has to fight water to make whiskey eh?????!!!😅🤣
Sadly not much whisky available in those nations.
yer olpop is ney coconut
@@infidelheretic923 maybe not whiskey but they love alcohol in Ethiopia.
@@sanjeevdandin9350
Essentially what is meant by the saying is that alcohol is something consumed. Drunkards are known to become violent. But the thing that men fight over is access to water. Such as this situation.
I believe that instead of an open conflict, there will more likely be a proxy war of sorts in Ethiopian Tigray region.
Cairo will most likely supply weapons and such to Tigray in order to divert funds and attention from Grand Renaissance Dam.
@Salah Al-din Ayyubi But Egypts needs to act because Water is a basic necessity.
Well the tigray have already have strangely advanced small arms and the seem to not be running out of ammunition, someones probably already supplying them whenever Sudan do Egypt nobody really knows , the tigray conflict isn't given justice in the video, it's draining the countries funds rapidly and the government has raised taxes as a result, it was said to be a short war that would crush the freedom fighters but it's been months and the Ethiopian army has been pushed back
It definitely is a poxy war.
Egypt would never aid the Tigray , as Eritrea (Tigray's worst enemy) is a strategical ally of Egypt. Also the Tigray can't do anything about the dam since it has already been filled.
Or it can wait for the dam to be built, then just bomb it and wait for Ethiopia to make the next move. Ethiopia will not be able do any major damage to Egypt, they don't have financial power to sustain a conflict
The coming water wars will look back on this as a prelude.
For real
Pakistan is out of water 100 mil. refugees soon
@@johnh23z the nukes will be flying before the decade is out
Just when 2020 was a surprising year, we get 2021... Next 2022 elections in U.S
Water wars! 💧
I remember when water wars were just fiction
When was it fiction? Pakistan and India have been fighting over water for 70+ years.
@@KatariaGujjar I feel like those two will fight over anything
Mad max was scripture not fiction! I’m joking of course but damn.
@@reneroux2391
The endpoint is always the water, how to share it, and who controls the source.
Water is more important than land
Well, it sucks to see a whole nation depending on a river that springs 3 countries further.
@Tuhin maybe use oil for water salign techonolgy
@@theolonius8865 saltwater desalination :) it indeed works as is seen in Israelian case but it produces salt water brine (high salt concentration water) that can damage marine environment important for fishing plus the process is energy dependent.
@@evilmonkeyfromchriscloset1211 egypt has huge natural gas in their sea so they dont need money for financing the problem is they just dont solve this problem and even doing 70 billion$ modern city for 6 million people.xD
@@evilmonkeyfromchriscloset1211 Israel is only 7 million yk
You're not gonna desalinate saltwater for 100 million..
@@yuussee israel supply a large amount of area with the water AND surrounding countries like jordan, gaza etc.
Let's hope they can settle it peacefully. The nile stretches a long way...
I dont think Ethiopia is aiming to strongarm Egypt.
They could help Egypt to look for alternate sources of water.
@@rexcolt9742
you’d assume there would’ve already been an alternative option for water before this conflict even began.
@@f.b.lagent1113
While mostly a white elephant, the *Qattara depression dam* project might be a solution.
The biggest issue is cost.
Either Ethiopia could help with that project, or Egypt could just cover some of the economical loses for the slower filling of the dam.
There is options.
Being honest, people here in the comments is just picking sides, pointing fingers and labeling them as _"evil";_ but only either for the religion of one, or the color of the skin of the other.
@@rexcolt9742 you're right, I don't understand how our collective problem solving got this bad. Probably incompetent leadership is mostly to blame for why we can't control our emotions and stay rational.
@@rexcolt9742 I say let it be settled like old days, let the strongest be the victor. Whether one wants to surrender is another story.
Shout out to the french for playing both sides.
Shoutout to the French always making money on any sides, regardless, since early 1950s-ish
M-m-m-money
Classic France moment
Either way they win
@@deadmartian3271 outstanding move
Interesting that you mentioned the rate of the Nile River's flow. It's not something that most people typically consider.
Well said,
Seriously ! Without the Nile Egyptian government could decide a military mitigation of its population more a long term solution
I know i'm a bit a late but could tell me why rate of river flow is important or send me a video explaning it?
Girl are you reason behind Egypt-Ethiopia tensions?
Because daamn.
ahh so you are a man of culture too
nice one hahahaha ;)
Booo
@@aratirao9007
i watched it, his content is shit.
That was so shitty it circled right back to being amazing and then circled right back to being shitty again.
The first of many water wars to come I'm sure.
water is needed
Im affraid so..
The prospective contest in the Himalayas is gonna be freakin' crazy.
🟪SERCH ADITYA RATHORE- HE ALSO MAKES INFORMATIVE CONTENT LIKE CASPIAN REPORT
Hardly the first, but certainly a major one.
i saw a documentary years back called "the future of water". they covered the topic of how countries are constructing dams along the nile and threw in a side comment on how this could negatively affect Egypt if they dont come to a solution. just seeing the thumbnail gave me the answer to that statement.
highly recommend the series - 3 episodes
How can there be a negative integer of episode...? Idiot.
@@gxlorp lmao why are you so mad? I guess you dont know you can use dashes as a break or pause in a sentence....
Egypt uses 80% water from Nile for cotton farming which is water intensive plant. Egypt needs to learn from nations such as Israel for effective/efficient water using technology, Desalination Techniques, etc.
Looks like fallout “Resource wars” will become a real thing but instead of oil it will be water and food that we fight over.
The whole middle east has oil, but no water/
You know it’s gonna be a good day when Caspian Report releases new content
The content is good, but the day... not so good for Egypt and Ethiopia !
Sometimes is full of false information based on rumours and blogs
🔹SERCH ADITYA RATHORE- HE ALSO MAKES INFORMATIVE CONTENT LIKE CASPIAN REPORT
Filling the dam as quickly as they did was the smartest thing the Ethiopians could have done. Now they can fill it more slowly to prevent war
I don't see why egypt want to attack Ethopia if they have already filled much of the dam..
The 2nd filling failed, they intended to fill 13.5 billion cubic meter of water, and they end up filling 3.2 billions. All amount of water behind that failure project that started 10 years ago has succeeded to fill total amount of 8.2 billions, and yet ZERO watt of electricity. Way to go Ethiopia. Let’s see if this project will survive this year flood.
Egyptians should blow it up consequences be damned.
Actually Ethiopians not even close to be that smart !!
You will see what's gonna happen to them just 4 thinking miss up with Egyptian Pharaohs 🇪🇬
@@josephkhalil1149 if ethiopia wants to finish egypt. Deforestation will finish the nile..not the dam..if egypt think they can stop ethiopia they better not think...I have seen rivers dry..I guess if ethiopia wants to cripple egypt they will just destroy the source of the nile...the dam has no harm
"I am altering the deal. Pray I don't alter it any further."
But the princess and the wookie. Damm it!
🔴SERCH ADITYA RATHORE- HE ALSO MAKES INFORMATIVE CONTENT LIKE CASPIAN REPORT
Do people like you actually watch the video and have insights to share, or are you just going here posting stale memes for strangers?
@@kemkopi do people like you actually watch the video and have insights to share, or are you just going here criticizing strangers for kicks?
@@OptimusWombat do people like you actually watch the video and have insights to share, or are you just here to criticize strangers for criticizing other strangers for posting stale memes?
I see Egypts point but Ethiopia is trying to modernize its infrastructure while dealing with internal problems
Super cool but that'll result in famine and drought somewhere else...they should invest in solar and tidal. Hell they should go all in on desalination tech and be the water source for all of Africa
@@jacobkobald1753 that's true but Egypt can't infringe on Ethiopia sovereignty by international law Ethiopia can build whatever it wants inside its territory besides Egypt threatening military action against the dam would only result in minor delays until the dam is complete
Ethiopia needs to break up. Amhara colonization needs to end
@@JimboShogun0686 true but since when does international law matter anymore. The u.s proved it was useless when they invaded Iraq
@@JimboShogun0686 not really there were multiple international treaties signed by Ethiopia regarding the Nile and its share from it so why tf should I care about their sovereignty when they have broke all of those treaties and are threatening us publicly, daring us to use military action? Be careful what you wish for I guess
Honestly the ongoing Tigray conflict could be a region where Egyptians arms flow into Tigrian hands to further destabilize the Ethiopian federal government. President Abey was too rash in starting a war within his own nation even though he could have avoided it.
that wouldn’t work cuz it would lose an ally(Eritrea) and flood sudan with refugees . that isn’t smart at all especially with the fat egypt doesn’t have a team big enough to do something like that.
Lmao your funny the war was inevitable the TPLF literally attacked a military and brutally butchered and tortured the soldiers and also TPLF tried to invade a neighboring region. And here you are saying he could’ve avoided it, you better be joking
Any Ethiopian citizen expects their leader to protect the integrity of their country from attacks internal or external. This was an attack and he made the right move to pursue the weyane junta and neutralise them
Maybe they are already supplying them
🔷SERCH ADITYA RATHORE- HE ALSO MAKES INFORMATIVE CONTENT LIKE CASPIAN REPORT
Make a video on how the prime minister of Bangladesh dismantled democracy and became a dictator.
ruclips.net/video/a6v_levbUN4/видео.html al jazeera did a bit was pretty informative.
You mean Canada?
🟨SERCH ADITYA RATHORE- HE ALSO MAKES INFORMATIVE CONTENT LIKE CASPIAN REPORT
At least, better than the opposition.
i hope this region can peacefully resolve this issue
one can hope... but water wars are a thing predicted since ancient time...
Turkey vs Irak/Syria
China vs India (and most probably, other states of the Indochina peninsula)
Ethiopia vs Egypt
Ukraine vs Russia (cutting the canal that provide Crimea with water)
and probably more...
Yeah, don't hold your breath.
@@dwaynethecuckjohnson2.08 okay Dwayne
Bahahaha, doubtful
World Bank should fund nuclear power plants which will provide equivalent energy to the Renaissance Dam in return for not building the dam that will havoc Egypt. This way Ethiopia can develop and we avoid a war and refugee crisis.
The Nile situation sounds like a Sword of Damocles hanging over everybody's heads. It feels like the past few years have pushed back global peace efforts, and that is damn depressing.
China has assets in Ethiopia. We'll see how they react.
"Egypt's alogance goes blom blom"
China has the same if not eay more assets in Egypt
⚪SERCH ADITYA RATHORE- HE ALSO MAKES INFORMATIVE CONTENT LIKE CASPIAN REPORT
They will do nothing other than stop any wars. China benefits from Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia.
China is a mass production country, the will probably opt to sell weapons and militairy equipment to both sides, whatever path Egypt or Ethiopia chooses China always wins
Wow! What a well-balanced and accurate analysis of a very complicated issue. Impressed once again!
I feel like the place of battlefield matters the most.
Even if Ethiopia ultimately wins the fight, it might not win the war as it has to defend itself from external as well as internal threats
Egypt case is no better the local devid between militarists and the Muslim brotherhood is shown through out the region but the main battlefeild is Egypt, also dont forget the islamist insurgencies in sinai, both countries face external and internal threats
@@evanmedi6144 Islamist have fleed and are seprated dont have any power in middel east.
@@A.D.540 i am an arabic speaker who follows the local news covererage all the time, to simply shrug it off as islamist powers have fleed the region is naive to say the least, the muslim brotherhood still challenge sisi coup and have a sizable population that is growing each passed day who support it doing so,
the extremists in sinai are attacking egyptian military posts by the hundereds each month...
egypt have its own challenges and its not in a better position than ethiopia
Egypt will not be able to successfully wage a victorious war in Ethiopia it would eventually hurt them more.
@@evanmedi6144Egypt has an absolute control over its territories. Except maybe for section C and D in sinai (which is under firm control as well but not as safe) where no significant military equipment can enter according to the peace treaty. The muslim brotherhood is almost non existing in political scene today.
Ethiopia on the other hand is at a full on civil war + it's a federal state to begin with. They're no comparison here.
Side note: since we're talking about battlefields, Egypt has two Mistral Class helicopter carriers which are litterly a mobile army. One of which is already deployed near djibouti. Also Egypt has rafal fighter jets that can be fueld while flying. Egypt has the 13th most powerful army in the world while Ethiopia doesn't even make it to top 60 let alone its exhaustion from inner conflicts. I don't wish for a war and it's most likely not going to happen, but if it does, it's not even a fair fight.
It is highly unlikely that these two nations will ever go to war. I think the war sentiment is mostly a western point of view. Yes, there are legitimate concerns but a war will most negatively impact Egypt as it will give Ethiopia the perfect excuse to disrupt or even sabotage the water flow.
True, Egypt cant move the source of the Nile from Ethiopia, but Ethiopia can divert the flow of water to another direction if the GERD is bombed. Who loses more then? Egypt. But both would suffer in such a scenario. The talk and threat of war is not very wise.
@@mandandi Ethiopia has plenty of rivers too. So it would be better off
@@millevenon5853 How would you be better of off/without your head? That's Nile to it's sources. We Africans should be as wiser as our ancestors than Eurovision erosions. Just sayin.
@@millevenon5853 And also, it is just a Dame, they not holding the whole water or something the Western media hating on. They calling us poor, why they against us when we try to be ourselves, then???
@@millevenon5853 but those aren’t really major rivers. The Blue Nile is a huge river in Ethiopia. Also, remember that Ethiopia is now landlocked, as it lost access to the Red Sea after Eritrea left.
BEFORE EGYPT GOES TO WAR WITH ETHIOPIA THEY NEED TO KNOW ETIOPIA HAS NEVER LOST A WAR EVER SINCE BIBILICAL TIMES, LOVE FOR ETHIOPIA FROM KENYA.
AMEN
Respect from the us
Well technically they did lose a war though.
The Ethiopians lost a war with Italy, becoming temporarily occupied right before WW2.
Kenya is a piece of shit country plus Egypt lost battles yes but not wars plus this war is going to be totally different no more horses are being used for wars. By the way Egypt is not going to go near Addis abba Just the dam
Okay let's not forget eritreas independence war
The man who drew Egypt's map had a great fond for geometric shapes
He was simple
A straight line
Must be British.
It looks like a fez.
It was the British indeed, during colonialism. Egypt’s borders were different before that it included parts of Libya north of Sudan and parts of Palestine
@@Thanagor525 During colonization Egypt’s borders included all of the Sudan
both North and South Sudan was part of Egypt reason the colony was split up
was because of civil unrest in what is now Sudan.
Shirvan, every video you make is an absolute masterpiece and I wish I had money to give to your Patreon.
As long as the video has nothing to do with Middle east they are good. Anything middle east related touching/associated with Islam, his vids are a joke... Just like this one.
@@w8stral just like his russia videos, like russia is trying to take over the world
🔲SERCH ADITYA RATHORE- HE ALSO MAKES INFORMATIVE CONTENT LIKE CASPIAN REPORT
No, every video he makes is not a master piece. Look at his analysis of Ethiopia from just before the civil war started. He completely failed to notice any movements on political or social level that would alarm him about a conflict and his whole narrative is peachy.
@@w8stral so Islam is a joke?
As an Ethiopian, I honestly don't see Ethiopia surviving 3 years, if that at all. The PM's job is more like walking on a tightrope over The Grand Canyon, that's on fire, whilst doing back flips. From what I've seen and heard, it's the closest thing to impossible that the Tigray region decides to stay with Ethiopia after the war is over. Ethnic tensions in many other areas, notably Oromia have also just been getting worse. It's very likely these regions will side with Egypt out of spite.
Where do you think the ethiopian refugees will go
@@hm.7959 Perhaps Sudan or Djibouti, mostly Sudan though.
Eventho the stakes are low for Ethiopia to collapse but even if it happens with regards to the Nile it doesn't really matter what the other states say or do. Majority of the water around 74%, Originates from a region named Amhara. And the dam is bulit in a region called BGR Metekel, which is historically Amharas land having the highest Amhara population. So with regards the Nile is more of Amhara vs Egypt thing, so if other states secede it wont bring that much change especially once the construction is completed.
I bet you thought Ethiopia wouldn’t last a week when the Tigray war lasted.The government has demonstrated that it could win the war 8 months ago when it captured mek’elle in less than 3 weeks if it was not for international pressure the government wouldn’t have backed away.Remember Ethiopia is under US sanctions so the tight rope I see here is walking the line between the US and China who are both competing for interest ,but the US particularly who is giving Ethiopia a hard time by undermining our national security.
I never said that, and I'm mostly talking about a post-war scenario.
There is no free-flowing river in Suadi Arabia, Eqypt must look at the alternatives because today is Ethiopia tomorrow is Sudan's swelling needs. Innovation will propel them and dependency will destroy them.
📀SERCH ADITYA RATHORE- HE ALSO MAKES INFORMATIVE CONTENT LIKE CASPIAN REPORT
Egyptians are lazy they cannot innovate
France : I was a businessman doing business
Well if Ethiopia is buying French equipment it's through private corporations (that could easily be German or any other nation) with little to no government interference. Arm deals (including planes) on the other are largely negotiated by government even when the contractor is a private corporation. So it's not really that France is playing both sides (or any of them for that matter) but she has arm deals with many nations including Egypt and Ethiopia happen to have chosen a French company for some of the equipment they're buying and probably chose other companies for other equipment from other nation (that don't seem to matter because the country they originate from isn't selling weapons to Egypt?).
I see people in the comments saying "wHy dOnT EgyPt jUst dESaliNatE seA WaTeR?"
It's because It's tremendously expensive
🔺SERCH ADITYA RATHORE- HE ALSO MAKES INFORMATIVE CONTENT LIKE CASPIAN REPORT
It's also not healthy, It contains high amount of minerals
Israel can.
@@beye2519 Yeh, Every country needs a powerful military, Especially knowing that ww3 is near
@@SoundSpeeding israel is much richer than any other countries in the region.
Ethiopia remained unconquered during the partition of Africa defeating any European army that came and Egypt has changed hands a lot nd they still think they can beat Ethiopia???
Lets see where the first water war breaks out. Is it Turkey vs Iraq and Syria, Ethiopia vs Egypt, Uzbekistan vs Tajikistan or the biggest one yet, China vs India and Indochina.
It'll get ugly that's for certain.
How about California vs. Nevada in the US ?
@@irishmerit They won’t try anything as long as the feds are around. Putting it bluntly they don’t have the balls so it’ll stay as at most, an embargo war that the feds will likely intervene in anyway.
@@irishmerit Throw in Hoover Dam for a free for all.
China vs India could easily escalate to a ww3, so I hope to god it won’t happen.
The toddler in me laughing at all these Dam negotiations
@Tinsae Tsegaye Do you know jokes? Seems like you dont. what a shame, this deserves a wooosh.
"Dam" as in Damn negotiations?
If not i don't get It.
The fact that tinsae tsegaye deleted their comment is just hilarious
Shirvan (I hope I'm spelling that correctly?) - I am so impressed with the depth, detail, and historical and geopolitical insights you deftly manage to package in these consistently bite-sized explainers. I'm going back & watching all your videos starting from a decade ago to help me better understand what was happening then and the origins of what is happening now. I'm especially grateful for your attention to your home region of the world, which we neither hear nor understand enough of in the US. Thank you, thank you, thank you.
Im Ethiopian and oromo in ethnic but ever body here is stand with our pm Dr abiy .. #its my dam 🇪🇹🇪🇹🇪🇹🇪🇹🇪🇹🇪🇹🇪🇹🇪🇹
It's your dam and you will draw with it
The statements of there is no treaty between Ethiopia and Egypt and the lack of UN laws for such situations are incorrect.
There is a treaty that has been mediated by UK but Ethiopia brings excuses that it is old...
There are also International laws for rivers which are used by different countries downstream.
Actually what Ethiopia is doing isn't perfectly legal.
Dude Why don't you tell that to your puppet masters who utilize the Colorado River 100%. and you bitch about when we take 13.5 billion cubic meters out of the 74 billion we give you.
Sudan and Egypt signed the paper your talking about Ethiopia never signed anything because she was not colonized. Your leaders where always sleeves for Westerners and still are.
@@Cinemacllips Puppetmaster, coloroda river?? What the heck are you talking about? Im not Egyptian nor American you moron.
Because they did not consult Ethiopia when signing the treaty and we don't accept a colonialism treaty
M. Karbaschi could you provide a link to this treaty mandated by the UK with regards to the blue Nile and Ethiopia
Its not 13 million cubic meter, is 8-8.5 million cubic meters. That’s why egypt didn’t strike it until l now…
Do you think they will blow it up next year during the next filling
@@nathanpolk2523 Well Egypt went for war when it came to land, it will definitely go for war for water.
@@nathanpolk2523 no this amir guy is a weirdo who does not understand geo politics Egypt would never attack Ethiopia a country with 100 million potential destabilizing migrants
@@ephemeraljaunt there is Also 100million migrants going to Europe from egypt if there is no water… 🤷🏽♂️
13:58
Egypt has already won Sudan and both countries are on the same side for this matter
🏮SERCH ADITYA RATHORE- HE ALSO MAKES INFORMATIVE CONTENT LIKE CASPIAN REPORT
It doesn't mater really, if they feel like they have they wouldn't complaining they know better
@@xamael1989
I don't know if it's because of my IQ drop or something else, but I didn't understand anyword you said 😂😂😂😂
@@shakalalalalkh1098 this must be the case its okay to dumb
"Deals have a peculiar quality -- they tend to change over time.
Which brings us to today's sponsor, HONEY"
missed opportunity
Had me cracking up loll
The only real option on the table is to accept the fact of the matter, we don’t give a dam
I think it would be kinda ironic because there’s a good chance if conflict broke out the Israelis would support Egypt considering the history the irony would be noteworthy
I don't see it happening. Israel can't really pick sides in this conflict since it maintains relations with both countries for different reasons.
besides that, the US will probably make sure that they sit down and not intervene
Ethiopia is a better ally of Israel. Israel sent defense equipment to Ethiopia
Yes, the peace deal with Egypt is a vital interest for Israel (and by extension, avoiding complete political instability in Egypt).
Friendly relations with Ethiopia, less so.
Israel would probably prefer not to choose a side, so for that reason, their junior partner in Washington would be required to intervene to separate the two sides (Egypt and Ethiopia).
A chaotic egypt wouldn't help israel, there would be refugees and dangerous players taking advatnge. This could be an opportunity for Israel to ally with Egypt and provide eachother with national security. Egypt might allow Israel to have palestine.
@@MasterGhostf if egypt becomes another syria or afghanistan then israel will be in danger of islamic jihadists.
Another fascinating, fact filled, thoughtful and rational video. Çok teşekkür ederim! Çox sağ ol! Merci, and thanks!
This repost is mostly hype. Ethiopia will fill their dam and Egypt will continue to receive their water down the Nile River. This conflict is like two bald men fighting over a comb.
"Two bald men fighting over a comb". The title of the war between Eritrea and Ethiopia (1998-2000)
Precisely.
@@jayo7812 80% or more of nile river coming to Egypt comes from blue nile originating in Ethiopia
You r so nieve
I am Egyption and I hope Ethiopia and Egypt will reach an agreement that will please both parties and together give the middle finger to France that tries it's best to prove its self and that is the sign of weakness of the French they want to appear in every scene
الحل الوحيد اللى ربنا يخليك دولة منبع بس الظاهر ربنا بيكرهنا
As a Ethiopian I completely Agree.
@@ahmadfathy7994 استغفر الله
9:03 France: I was a businessman doing business
Well if Ethiopia is buying French equipment it's through private corporations (that could easily be German or any other nation) with little to no government interference. Arm deals (including planes) on the other are largely negotiated by government even when the contractor is a private corporation. So it's not really that France is playing both sides (or any of them for that matter) but she has arm deals with many nations including Egypt and Ethiopia happen to have chosen a French company for some of the equipment they're buying and probably chose other companies for other equipment from other nation (that don't seem to matter because the country they originate from isn't selling weapons to Egypt?).
If someone cut of my country's water supply I would see it as an act of war.
Try living down stream from China pal. Then you know the meaning of helpless.
Yeah China tries to do that to India as well.
Well Ethiopia hasn’t cut of their water supply lmaooo. It’s literally just a power move by Egypt. If the Ethiopians did they would be fucked by the entire world.
@@lif3andthings763
This is naivety, Egypt will not wait until someone cut their water off!
have a look on similar situation between Turkey and Iraq!
It's Ethiopia's water supply too. Both sides should be allowed to use it reasonably.
When Egypt was filling their own Aswan Dam they did essentially the same as most of Egypt lies downstream from Aswan.
They should be grateful Ethiopia is filling the Dam as slowly as they are doing and keeping them updated. By international laws, Ethiopia is doing absolutely nothing wrong. Egypt has a dam on the Nile to make it more ironic. Egypt's lack of preparation and innovation has nothing to do with preventing Ethiopia from making decisions to lift its people out of poverty. Sorry Egypt, you are not the rulers of the Nile, whatever pre-colonial deals Egypt signed have nothing to do with an independent and sovereign Ethiopia. Egypt should just go do one!
Man! Ethiopia *Can't* fill the dam faster than this, it's not they are filling it slowly!😂
the dam haven't even generated a single watt even after the second fill, what are you talking about!
@@sh9dw Exactly, it hasn't generated a single watt even after the second fill for one reason: Its being filled SLOWLY. Ethiopia is within its rights to fill that thing in one rainy season, but they have morals and wouldn't do that. Egypt should stop throwing its toys out the pram and realize it doesn't own a River that originates in Ethiopia
@@desmondjombe307
that is so funny, because it looks like i follow up your Official's more than you do!
Ethiopian president said in last October that the dam will generate electricity in 12 month your Minister of Irrigation said in last April that Ethiopia will generate electricity in August.
Ethiopia couldn't fill the dam successfully nor generate electricity. it's not that Ethiopia is filling the dam slowly!
The Nile flows from the south to the north means Ethiopia has more rights than Egypt historically we link the Nile to Egypt
The Ethiopian economy has been grown for years and they absolutely need extra electricity from the dam to keep this growth in coming years. I don't see they will stop the construction.
IN fact, they will build many more dams. Then there is the religious angle which Caspian report always ignores.
@@w8stral there are no major religious conflicts in Ethiopia and no religious extremists
@@w8stral what religious angle?, Orthodox Christianity and Islam are well represented in all the major tribes of Ethiopia, the conflicts in Ethiopia have been mostly ethnic/regional.
well, they'll stop it when egypt blows it up, simple as.
@@lordteapot9740 yeah and then the water will come down sweeping through Egypt. Wise move, no?
I read an article many years ago titled "The Blue Gold." It was referring to water, and how it was becoming a rare commodity.
Turkey is doing to Iraq and Syria what Ethiopia is doing to Sudan and Egypt; and same problems in the region where you'll find Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
China and pretty much every country around its border.
Care to elaborate on Uzbekistan and its surrounding area?
makes even more sense why turkey wants to avod a kurdish state at all costs. the euprate flows through mostly kurdish majority areas....
@@unknowninfinium4353 One of Uzbekistan's major waterways starts in Tajikistan and Tajikistan wants to dam that river which will cause water shortages in Uzbekistan. So a war there is likely to happen soon
You have all the time to use oil money for irrigation and water resources
The war of Nile. I'm calling it
the first nile war. If you're a pessimist
@@jimpickins7900 at least it not at Balkans
🔷SERCH ADITYA RATHORE- HE ALSO MAKES INFORMATIVE CONTENT LIKE CASPIAN REPORT
@@jimpickins7900 damn
I am going to put down a 1000 dollars the Ethiopians win with my friend he is betting on Egypt
Egypt couldn't beat Israel + the west with soviet help and other countries Egypt should be the one to tread lightly
Bros really ignoring the October war 💀
other countries: only sides with one country
chad France: i play on both sides so i stay on top
I guess it's meme but wtv. If Ethiopia is buying French equipment it's through private corporations (that could easily be German or any other nation) with little to no government interference. Arm deals (including planes) on the other are largely negotiated by government even when the contractor is a private corporation. So it's not really that France is playing both sides (or any of them for that matter) but she has arm deals with many nations including Egypt and Ethiopia happen to have chosen a French company for some of the equipment they're buying and probably chose other companies for other equipment from other nation (that don't seem to matter because the country they originate from isn't selling weapons to Egypt?).
Egypt needs to watch its step. If they damage the GRD, what is to stop the Ethiopians from doing the same to the Aswan High Dam? If they blew that up, Cairo would be gone, and Egypt would cease to exist as a country. Long term, there will be almost as much water flowing in the Nile after the GRD is filled as there was before. Little of it will be used for agriculture, almost all will make electricity, which should kick start the Ethiopian economy as well as the economies of neighbouring countries, and reduce both external and internal conflicts; people who are prosperous or perceive that they have the chance to achieve prosperity are less likely to fight each other than they are to do business together.
💿SERCH ADITYA RATHORE- HE ALSO MAKES INFORMATIVE CONTENT LIKE CASPIAN REPORT
Ethiopia's military is vastly weaker than Egypt's. Egypt can defend themself militarily, Ethiopia can't.
Also Ethiopia sells itself terribly internationally. Your representatives in interviews about the dam boil down to "we can do what we please" and in a conflict Ethiopia would have few friends.
Ethiopia doesn't have the capability to launch such an attack the most advanced aircraft in their inventory is 90s su27 and they would get shot down by air defenses before they get close
Care to explain how Cairo would be gone and Egypt would cease to exist as a country?
@@MahdiShibly Its simple, understand how the flood flow, from where to where. Answer is the flood will flow from to Sudan then to Egypt. Now let explain you how it works #1. If you blow up GERD then flood wipe Sudanese Dams and Egypts large Aswan Dam. Then Cairo will wiped into red see. No flood is coming toward Ethiopia. Any way Egypt has not capable enough to blow the GERD and the defiance systems waiting Egypt's air craft to turn into ashes. If Egypt lucky enough to blow the Dam Ethiopia will add some spices on the river at the end of Ethiopia boarder. You know what I mean
Can't wait to hear 24/7 news about the 2025 Egyptian Ethiopian War
Can't wait for war to become a broadcasted entertainment lol.
Not in the West. Might make the news for a few days but the war would go pretty much completely unreported after that.
@@roberthoward9500 oh no we will.
A war in Egypt would make the last migrant crisis look small, and it would threaten to close the Suez canal.
The third Ethiopian Egyptian War.👀☝🏿
@@mouktaralbert7062 If we count all the succesor states of Egypt and Ethiopia (Axum, Abyssinia etc...) then there has been more than 3 wars.
Forget about the military power, Ethiopia can turn 100 million Egyptians into mummies without using a single weapon. Ask me how.
hooowww lol
If war breaks out Ethiopia could simply pollute and contaminate the downstream portions of the Nile. Something you armchair Generals need to consider.
The Nile is already polluted and contaminated enough
Nile aint clean lol
A few pieces of trash is entirely different from a hostile military force actively trying to poison the river.
@@kundasam4173 agree but in that process they'll antagonize sudanese too.
Yea very clever, if anyone is to go as low as poisoning the water the world would start to join in, not to mention the water from Ethiopia flows through Sudan dummy.
The moment the dam was proposed I felt like things would just continue to get more tense
Its not the first dam in Africa built on a river shared by many countries - Limpopo, Zambezi and other rivers have the same shared heritage. Mozambique needs Zambezi, but that has not stopped the building of Kariba Dam upstream from Mozambique.
The GERD has been filled for two years in a row now and Egypt has not been affected. There is water in Egypt and electricity is available. Now everyone can see the data(truth in fact) against fears and anxiety (emotions). This is the reality.
77 billion cubic water goes into the blue Nile from rainfall. Ethiopia says it needs 13.5 billion. The rest will go to Egypt and Sudan.
@@mandandi
We have been affected alot
Correction please...
3:39 - the great dam is in North West of Ethiopia 🇪🇹 ... not in North East ... !
📀SERCH ADITYA RATHORE- HE ALSO MAKES INFORMATIVE CONTENT LIKE CASPIAN REPORT
Date: 30 mar, 2021 ( now as my typing : 30 Oct,2023) two years and 7 months later..
Nothing happened .. Too quiet. And the Dam 's filled up to 4th Stage, 125 metre high.
Still waiting 😂
1st Ethiopia Contributes 86% of Nile water and that is a FACT and has 48.27 % Access to electricity in 2019 while Egypt has 99% Access to electricity, the way I see it the Nile is well enough for all countries it's just we don't have to be Greddy about it and expect Ethiopia to sign a deal which is not mutually beneficial, but no one can tell Ethiopia to stop filling the dam.
@Zeyad Zestro So Egypt is allowed dams but not Ethiopia hmm
Who stopped Ethiopia to have 99% access to electricity ??
Made us wait ages. Bring more videos Shirvan!!
Hope both can reach an agreement instead of chaos The comparison between Eithiopia and Egypt is meaningless Egypt is almost from the top 10 list
And no one wants a war. Egyptians suffered in the past two years of Economic reformatories, and no one wants to through that in the window
@@shakalalalalkh1098 Egypts economy is doing better than Ethiopias one since forever lmao
This sounds like a job for Aquaman!
Interesting that in the story of the opera Aïda by Giusseppe Verdi, Egypt wages war on Ethiopia - and hence the forbidden love between the Ethiopian princess Aïda and the Egyptian prince...
@Super Bad tell me one time Egypt won a war?
Aida Ethiopian Princess was sought by a "Black Egyptian Prince"..... NOT Arab Egypt.....True or False.😜
@@williamkamau1167 Depends on which dynasty was in charge. If it was the Nubian Dynasty, then yes - Black Egyptian Prince. I think the story probably took place in an earlier dynasty, but the opera's story is fiction anyway. In the opera, the conquered Ethiopians were enslaved...
@@crnel All indigenous Egyptian dynasties were Black silly.
@@listenup2882 North Africans are not black unlike Sub-Saharan Africans, silly.
There is no way to hit the damn without causing major floods, and there is no point to damaging the damn to become non-operational because the damn will continue to fill up.
They should just spend their money and time to build disalination plants
@@Peter_Sokunbi Yes, but because they are military regime, they will rather buy jets. How otherwise would ruling generals get their share of bribes?
@@Peter_Sokunbi desalination plants won't be allowed by us europeans, sorry, mediterranean sea is also us, egypt cannot turn it into a sterile salamoia, they better just reduce their pops
@@EUenjoyer You know that's impossible
Land invasion is also possible. They might want to take over the dam and slowly deconstruct it.
The Turkish military is squeezing Egypt between Libya, Sudan and Ethiopia. I hardly doubt Egyptians can do anything when Turkey is in full support of Ethiopia 🇪🇹
Ethiopia's position is so difficult politically and militarily. Time to face the reality.
⬜SERCH ADITYA RATHORE- HE ALSO MAKES INFORMATIVE CONTENT LIKE CASPIAN REPORT
Egypt best choice would've been Somalia, but they failed Somalia and didn't support them in 2006, they should have deployed troops to Somalia in 2006 to prevent Ethiopia Israel USA to invade Somalia
@@mohamedmostafa1375 can you state more dacts please difficult in what sense i would for you to elaborate more on this
@@xamael1989
Well, from a political point of view, Ethiopia has almost no political support. Turkey cannot get involved in a lost cause. On the other hand, Egypt has the support of the Arab countries and even some Western countries, including the US. The US. has strategic interests with Egypt, so it's so difficult to blame Egypt in case of military action.
From a military point of view, everyone knows that the military balance between Egypt and Ethiopia is not in Ethiopia's favour. The Egyptian army is ranked number 13 in the world, according to global fire. So, Ethiopia's situation is very difficult, in case of a confrontation with Egypt.
Build the dam. Egypt it's time for you to just go away you got no water.
Egypt has no legal grounds to attack Ethiopia over the Nile since Ethiopia is not a signatory to any Nile convention. Ukraine has completely cut off water from Crimea, yet Russia has not waged war against them.
Ukraine cut off the water because Russia started a war and annexed Crimea in the first place
You wouldn't really like your neighbour cutting off the municipal water pipe and using all of it for himself, would you ?
@@vishalgiraddi5357 Nobody would like that obviously but that isn't to say it is unlawful. They've all the rights of action on rivers within their borders. Ethiopia can cut off to Sudan and Egypt legally, Turkey can cut off to Iraq and Syria. It is a cruel leverage but it exists unfortunately.
Hah! Legal grounds! When your entire economy and even life is at stake, legal niceties are so much hot air. Egypt would have the support of the entire Arab world and most of the Muslim-majority countries. The ruling group in Ethiopia are Christians, which basically means they are on their own.
@Zeyad Zestro Only what flows through your borders are yours technically. You can wage any war you want to my country, it is a regional power that missed fighting anyway.
@Zeyad Zestro Not interested, you can fight for nile all you want.
As a correspondent, I rank this guy up there with Alistair Cook, only he does the whole world, rather than just America.
Yeah, he gives a good overview of regional power dynamics that most western news agencies gloss over or ignore completely.
⚪SERCH ADITYA RATHORE- HE ALSO MAKES INFORMATIVE CONTENT LIKE CASPIAN REPORT
@@aratirao9007 thanks for the recommendation.
I'm not a dedicated geopolitics watcher as I come from a country with many internal problems which is not always directly effected by current events.
I watch Caspian Report because Shirvan's presentation is level headed, interesting, balanced and actually quite relaxing, he and his team should be awarded for the research they do into history, culture and politics and the insights they bring across.
I'll check out your channel, but I will continue watching Caspian Report.
thanks
@@otherpatrickgill bro serch Aditya Rathore he is very good journalist
የኢትዮጵያ አምላክ አብሮን ነው።
What?
@@kgsniper4850 it means Ethiopia's God is with us
True for millennium
@@meharigetanehtemachu8933 based,
@@meharigetanehtemachu8933 based
Talk is cheap. It is not weaponry but bravery. Egypt had seen our might before and will get another biting if it tries war. We say “bring it on, it wouldn’t even take a 6 day war with us.”
Also dumbass its about weaponry and bravery thats why Egypt will absolutely dominate Ethiopia
@Xerius that's because the US help them, if it was only Egypt and Israel that would be an easy win for egypt but USA have to be involved in it 🙄
@@yaabro663 Egypt was funded by the Soviets and it still lost. Israel fought 7 Arab countries which had 10 times more people and won.
The population projections for both countries are horrifying.
They know how to breed
@albert einstien Guess what, having more kids is not the solution to overpopulation.
@@theluckyegg3613 same for USA 300 million
@@xstshepo the US has gone a long way to get to that mark, lots of immigration and natural growth over the centuries, but having a population growth of over 100 million people in only 30-50 years??? Holy shit man, that must be a Guinness world record or something lol
@@andresduques2013 Not really the Arab nations and the Chinese are the greatest
in terms of population growth.
Their war would be perfect to continue the trend of 2021 for being an awful time
Literally everywhere in 3rd world: *always bad time*
@@flying0possum Speak for your self
@Basleal S people are so spoiled they believe because media headlines broadcast 92% negative media all the time (even if the topic is supposed to be positive) in the US and like somewhere around 70% in Europe. I wished people could calm the fuck down on everything and think rationally, most people in the US/other 1st world countries hasn't experienced anything "bad" before, neither have I. Literally only thing getting people is mental health problems but I mean, all the stories I have heard from 3rd world countries makes me believe that most people are pussies
*EGYPT:* **BUILDS DAM IN THE NILE**
*ETHIOPIA:* **ALSO BUILDS DAM IN THE NILE**
*EGYPT:* You weren't supposed to do that!
Dumbest comparaison possible but ok .
Look at this dumb comparison
Egypt's dam doesn't affect Ethiopia's water share but Ethiopia's dam does limit Egypt's water share
@@Thenoisyoneyes it affects egyptian population alright. And the comparison is on point, because the problem is not the squabble btwn two poor nations, its the dam as a tech to produce energy and its consequences on rivers
@@mohamedlababidi9042 only 40% of people I. Ethiopia have electricity. They need to build damn to create energy for their people.
Why would you chose Egypt over people in Ethiopia.
Did the egyptians help Ethiopia in Energy recourses? They don't. Now who are they to demand them to stop building damn.
That will benifiting their own people
As it has been spoken by one far greater than us, so it shall be.
5 The waters of the river will dry up,
and the riverbed will be parched and dry.
6 The canals will stink;
the streams of Egypt will dwindle and dry up.
The reeds and rushes will wither,
7 also the plants along the Nile,
at the mouth of the river.
Every sown field along the Nile
will become parched, will blow away and be no more.
8 The fishermen will groan and lament,
all who cast hooks into the Nile;
those who throw nets on the water
will pine away.
9 Those who work with combed flax will despair,
the weavers of fine linen will lose hope.
10 The workers in cloth will be dejected,
and all the wage earners will be sick at heart.
Greetings from Egypt 🌷🌷🌷
Omg! Your from egypt that's so cool!! I love you guys history! ❤
@@yaabro663 Thank you so much, you’re so lovely 😇
@Johannes Peace and Love 🇪🇬❤️🇪🇹
@Johannes I really pray our countries can get along and work together. We should be partners. God make rational minds prevail.
Rule of Acquisition 34: War is good for business.
Kkkk....
Arms deal
Ngo's stealing oil & minerals
Organ harvesting & much more
I couldn't agree with you more.
Quark also said that peace is good when noone has a clear advantage
@@christianwhittall5889 Thats rule 35. Its easy to get them confused.
@@Afalaa You people are fucking delusional. The US is the largest oil producer in the world and out of the 23 oil companies in Iraq only 2 are American. Not to mention, that organ harvesting is not that profitable at all when considering the expenses/lack of buyers and overall poor business model relative to many conventional models.
Great video, thank you!
I know you have given Ethiopia a lot of attention recently, but an update on the war in Tigray and possible other internal conflicts would be awesome.
Either way, well done!
I would love updates on the Tigray situation from Caspian Report! His attention to detail is incredible
Would have to go into the Muslim issues and Caspianreport does not touch such subjects even though it is THE DRIVING force in most of the middle east conflicts currently.
@@Hollywood2021 I live in Ethiopia, you can ask me any question regarding my country and I can tell you whats actually happening.😁
@@dagi135 no you can’t
@@Freddy-ih4xo I'm just trying to help😁
We need the fallowing video 2 years later please 😮
Moralist: you support Egypt or Ethiopia?
Businessman: i support the conflict.
Among most local people:
Realist: I support peace
Businessman: I support peace
Ethiopia doesn't want a deal, Egypt made a deal already that gives Ethiopia 100% of the targeted electricity during the normal flooding years and 80% of the electricity on the drought years (if any) but Ethiopia refused to sign it although USA and EU see it as a fair deal. Ethiopia still procrastinating till today after nearly a decade of negotiations. All I can say is that either Ethiopia cooperates and that would be a win-win situation or Ethiopia will be the only loser, it will not end well for them.
U really think a deal tailored by US/EU is a win win deal? Think again pal! Ethiopia declined the deal for a reason! The last thing Egypt and Ethiopia wanna do is create a military confrontation. Had it been a win win deal, Eth would be the first one to sign it!
after all the progress Ethiopia made they now push Egypt into a corner they can only get out with violence .... unbelievably stupid ....
🔴SERCH ADITYA RATHORE- HE ALSO MAKES INFORMATIVE CONTENT LIKE CASPIAN REPORT
@@bamlaktadele3457 it was not tailored by US and EU, they were just observers and it really doesn't matter who makes the deal if it is a fair one. Ethiopia claims the main purpose of the dam is electricity production yet they refuse to sign the deal that gives them what they wanted without inflicting a major harm on Egypt. Ethiopia has clearly showed their bad intentions on that conflict, they wanted to use the dam as a political tool against Egypt which Egypt will never accept and they will have every right to defend the existence of more than 100 million of people. Ethiopia is the side who will decide how this mess will end, a deal with everyone is a winner or a conflict in which the very existence of Ethiopia as a unified nation will be at stake.
Ethiopia would kick Egypt’s ass
Shouldn't Europe support Egypt here? If they thought the Syrian refugee crisis was bad, stopping a potential Egyptian migrant crisis should be in their best interest. In the worst case scenario, 10s of millions of desperate Egyptians might try to cross the Mediterranean within just a few years. There is no way Europe could deal with this.
Egyptian crisis would be bad, but a dam will not cause a crisis while a war would. That's why the Europeans will be against any military action
The Egyptians should flee to fellow Muslim Arab countries
Tell that Pharaoh that the God of Israel is the God of Ethiopia !
Turkey is developingf Hisar type Air Defense Systems. There is a good chance to test them by supplying Ethiopia with such system. It is going to be more than a potent response to Egypt's politics.
Turkey’s army manufacturing is not all that plus Egypt trains day and night for such thing not to mention turkey doesn’t like to bother mighty Egypt because turkey will not dare to challenge mighty Egypt especially in such sensitive matter like the water which means life to Egypt. Turkey can’t do nothing in this case . plus most of turkey’s army manufactured weapons are not originally Turkish.
@@mazenlatif6722 yes! Agree
Turkey is trying to win Egypts side because of its Interest in the eastern Mediterranean gas. They would not anger Egypt in such a sensitive topic cause that would just strengthen the already strong. Egypt-Greece-Cyprus alliance. Plus Damaging relations with Egypt means damaging relationships with Rich Arab Gulf Countries like the UAE and Saudi which Turkey can't afford rn cause their economy is sinking
@@mazenlatif6722 There is nothing mighty about Egypt. Israel bashed Egyptians every time they fought. Also Turkey already has bad relations due to Libya.
@@enesbilgin937 Yeah sure, Rank 10th militarly, The strongest power in Africa, defeated Israel and took sinai in one day, Defeated the crusaders, One of the oldest civilizations, I wonder what's mighty about it...
I may not be well versed in geopolitics and how they work, but i find the situation strange indeed. It is understandable that Ethiopia would utilize their part of the waterways to bring electricity and power to rural regions, that makes sense. But at the same time, could potentialy screw over the neighbouring countries agriculture. Have they even considered it? By all means, egypt have all the right to keep that from happening.
Territories and resources. Tale as old as time
But in this case, territories as in sovereign holdings that only the holder wants, but vital resources stays the same
Also, not only Egypt is getting the end of this bad news
To put simply the Ethiopian federal government doesn't give a crap, they constantly say we should peacefully resolve the situation and then walk off as soon as the part about a bidding treaty in talked about, they literally did this btw when Washington was involved and negotiations were on D.C, it's heavily speculated that the damn has a second purpose other than the electricity which is getting water Rights concections from Sudan and Egypt, or forcing Egypt or Sudan to pay for water, this has been a genuine talking point brought up the the most recent negations, and was flat out refused by both Sudan and Egypt
Essentially this damn is a big screw you to Sudan and Egypt, although it did have serious benefits for Sudan by preventing flooding, the Sudanese actually supported building the dam in the beginning until the Ethiopians constantly refused the binding treaty which made the Sudanese partly switch sides although the benefits of flood prevention still make it so they haven't completely opposed the damn
Isn’t it disingenuous to say a country that gives 80% of the water not to use it.
@@ziadhaithemamin1431 Well Ethiopia hasn’t cut off their water supply andn never will lmaooo. It’s literally just a power move by Egypt. If the Ethiopians did they would be fucked by the entire world. Sudan doesn’t just get flood protection but also electricity to buy. If the Egyptians destroyed the dam it would cause sever flooding in Sudan leading to them joining the Ethiopians side.
Egypt doesn't want to held at gunpoint with water. I completely understand this and Egypt will have support over this. It's the same with India and China and the tug of war between the mountains of Tibet and surrounding nations. They hold the keys of water security in the biggest nations in the world
Exactly , people think India China are fighting for brahmaputra river but actually they are fighting for the mountains which melts to form the river , having Himalayas India can easily defeat China and USA combined such is the strategical value of Himalayas
@@VivekKumar-rb7zk 🟡SERCH ADITYA RATHORE- HE ALSO MAKES INFORMATIVE CONTENT LIKE CASPIAN REPORT
You don't have a say what a country do with its territory. You can negotiate, even PAY just as people need to pay to cross the Suez canal.
having secure water does not in any way mean india can somehow defeat china or usa singly, let alone the two of them combined. tibet has no major industry or resources, nor can it support many people, it give water and thats pretty much it.
Also, india is never gonna get control of tibet, china is far stronger than india, the disparity is way larger than between egypt and Ethiopia, an actual attempt on tibet might see india lose entire states.
@@mxn1948 China couldn't even hold on to the few kilometers it sneaked into in the Indian Himalayan region and had to pull back it's military...nor has China managed to capture a single kilometer of East Indian Arunachal Pradesh...and has only claimed to taken 2km of Bhutan's land in Doklam and that too was only because of lack of Bhutanese enthusiasm to support India defending their own territory....India won't likely win in China, but to say China will take "entire states" in India is stupid too and won't be the same as 1962 Indo-Sino war..
Turn Egypt to glass.
Pharoah’s wrath!!
Sudan 🇸🇩 is like guys I’m sitting 🪑 rt here
Sudan has its own problems after The US split it in half
More like sheikh's wrath.....they'll do noothing
@@sankh4914 That's what the turkish troops were saying when they passed the red lines sisi put
For Your Information; the second filling of the dam only reached 4 BCM, making the the total reservoir capacity 9 BCM and not 18!
Pal Ethiopia might not have negotiated like they got equal rights to the dam but from the outset Egypt was negotiating in bad faith and tryyto uphold the treaties with the colonizers they broke when they nationalized their dam and the suez as what gave them the right to control all water that flows into and out of the Nile. When it was brought to their attention Egypt itself had made the treaty null and void they proceeded to pull out a treaty from the time of the mahdi war which they had also made null and void when the suez was nationalized.
The dam is not feed from both of the main Nile tributaries just one thus the biggest issue has always been upstream countries having the right to build dams in their own land instead of the reduction of the water flow. Even in the fastest models to fill up the dam the water to people was not in danger but the one going to the farming sector was to some degree. That said Egypt has a limited amount of rainfall and due to the long links between the Upper Nile civilizations and the river it is understandable why Egypt might feel it rightful and unquestionable owner of the Nile but it rescinded that right the moment it gave international bodies the right to mediate in their affairs.
Really? How do you know? Because the Egyptian media said so? :-D Okay, believe whatever makes you feel comfortable.
who says u or your country media
🟫SERCH ADITYA RATHORE- HE ALSO MAKES INFORMATIVE CONTENT LIKE CASPIAN REPORT
@@GAndreC Build a hundred dam!, all we need is coordination and co-operation and don't sell the water!, we need a biding agreement between the three countries!
Ethiopia filling that damn as fast as feasibly possible was likely a shrewd call. It has now become a weapon an attack could trigger floods from and in that respect is more important that the army that sits behind it. They have generated their own trump card. As long as they aren't dicks about it I think everyone should settle down over time - actions speak louder than words.
They failed on the Second filling, and you forget that Egypt has the high dam that will protect her from flood danger
@@3araab1 I did not know this about Egypt, thanks.
@@user936 that is because it's not true lol.the dam will literally end egypt
@@3araab1 Lol what ? the dam will literally end egypt
watch the video from 8 minute it was sucessful
To all Ethiopians .. you havent yet tried the Egyptians brute force .. we are ready to use it whenever we need to .. we support the rights of our brothers in Ethiopia to get a more developed civilization and we are on the path of finding new ways and solutions for our already existing water shortage problems .. we will not allow your rising to be on the expense of our historical rights .. we talk the talk and we can walk the walk .. any conflict with egypt will end badly for Ethiopia and the neighboring countries in the region and by the way although Egypt alone is fully capable to conquer Ethiopia in a matter of weeks.. Egypt will not fight alone .. we have our Arab brothers who are more than ready to fight with us any time .. dont forget Egypt is the leader of the Arab Nations .. like it or not this is a fact.. you have been warned several times .. we Egyptians still dont want this war. Totally preventable if you comeback to your sense.
An Egyptian.
"To all Ethiopias...you haven't yet tried Egyptian brute force"
Lol you guys have lost two wars against us(battle or gura and battle of gundet) if your country is strong then why did
It lose against a country which is 36 times than Egypt? Bro keep yapping okay
Since they already started filling the dam, doesn't Egypt already have water shortages?
If not why is it going to get worse in the future and has not already happened?
Egypt didn't have water shortages because Ethiopians couldn't fill the dam successfully in both phases!
Moreover have a look on what the hydroelectric dams that were build by Turkey did to Iraq!
I’m wondering the same thing. If filling the reservoir hasn’t caused problems then why is Egypt preparing for war?
@@sh9dw the fuck are you talking about the damn has filled significantly there were no water shortages because we have had 2 concurrent having rain reasons
@@FreedomFox1 because the rainy season this year was much more than normal. That made down stream nations not get affected by GERD. The problem is what if there is a dry season? There is no legal binding to Ethiopia to allow water to flow down stream if there is a dry season. They will use thay water to produce electricity. Egypt and Sudan just want a legal binding where if there is a dry season, Ethiopia is legally bounded to get water downstream and not hog it all for electricity.
@@FreedomFox1 1) As mentioned above, Ethiopia has failed to reach their target filling range for 2 straight years. As a result, almost no effects on the nile were observed. The tensions are sprawling because Ethiopian delegations are refusing any kind of deal that imposes a limit on the dam, thus basically telling the Egyptians to go fuck themselves.
2) This goes beyond the current issue of possible water shortages. The dam is a key to Egypt's livelihood in the future since its a strong leverage point that can be exploited at any time.
3) The whole process is simply a stunt pulled by Abiy's government to try and gain regional and global legitimacy through aggressive powerplay, and bullying Egypt is exactly how they succeed. In fact Abiy's government is hoping Egypt will destroy the dam as it would easily accelerate the unity of all the different factions, something that even Abiy himself has struggled with.
What?! Why so one-sided ?
ETHIOPIA had signed treaty of 1929 as a free nation !!
ETHIOPIA didn't possess the land which they are now using for the ETHIOPIAN dam until they signed this treaty of 1929 which stated a share of water for each country !!
There is an international law for international rivers !!
Egypt has the right to demand respect of international law and has the right to defend itself when it's being denied its legitimate rights
Even the dam is built, the water still comes down and is shared with other countries. I do not see any problem for Ethiopia to build a dam to generate electricity. The loss of water by a reservoir is very limited. I can safely say that the downstream will still get 85% of the original water volume.
@MR MAN sounds like you have no argument & no logic which explain why Ethiopia has no right to hurt other nations by mega projects
@@CN_SFY_General Egypt accepts the dam to exist but it's very big so Egypt doesn't want it to be filled in less than 7-10 years to keep getting water in those years enough to live..
You are just trying to miss lead people here.. I really wonder why?!
@MR MAN bias opinion ?! me?! 🤣🤣
It's funny because I stated only facts while you wasted your time already to share your bias *opinion*
- This piece of land doesn't belong to Ethiopia if it doesn't recognize treaty of 1929.
- Water of an international river doesn't belong to Ethiopia, in all cases.
@@Idleo 7 years or 5 or even 3 years to fill the reservoir can be discussed. The most important factor is the quantity of water that is kept to fill the reservoir. If the quantity is less than 20% of the original flow without any dam, it's acceptable.
Ethiopia is the owner of the water that contributes 87% to the river what #Egypt and #Sudan they contribut to the river is is 0%. So if the Egyptians and Sudanese are wise they should cooperatate with Ethiopia for its peace and stablity not its distraction.
No they can simply bomb the dam and nothing Ethiopia can do about it
Ethiopia as a nation state doesn't own it - the river has been there since before the creation of these states. People will suffer because of Ethiopia's actions - I'm shocked at the dehumanizing rhetoric in some of these comments.
@@TronUse999 bombing the dam is a suicide.
@@PlRATE Ethiopia gonna destroy itself with this dam after it destroys Egypt and Sudan. Kinda like turkey and Syria. Syria got destroyed and now turkey suffers from them. Turkey’s Economy has fallen and Syria is destroyed. If Ethiopia is gonna use this dam and ruin Egypt they will also ruin themselves.