New York Film Festival Spotlight selections that got Best Picture nominations: Maestro in 2023, Women Talking in 2022, and Dune in 2021. Only one per year and none got Director. It's a young stat, but something to keep in mind, because both Emilia Perez and Queer are in that selection.
Just wanted to mention that I don’t think Conclave was rejected from Venice. Barbera mentioned that there was a clash of dates and Focus probably wanted the Telluride premiere
One thing worth noting: Since 2008, all except 2 of the TIFF People's Choice winners have won at least one Oscar in an above-the-line category (Screenplay, Acting, Directing, Picture). The only 2 exceptions are the 2011 winner (WHERE DO WE GO NOW?) and the 2022 winner (THE FABELMANS). AMERICAN FICTION won this last year and went on to win the Adapted Screenplay Oscar. We need to pay close attention to what wins that award this year.
I kinda think Jacques Audiard could be like Ruben Ostlund. The Cannes audience likes him (look at their Palme wins), but the audiences are pretty divided on him and his film. And yet, even though people say “that seems like more of a screenplay/acting contender” he still gets nominated
It's something tuff to find out the favorites and then I realized that is just early September. Still, I always have this stange feeling that the movies you guys show in these predictions never feel like a good amount of movies, a deserved top 10 of the Oscars. But I feel like this every single year, it's a fact that the last two years we have strong contenders all over the year and earn favorites. So it seems a little like 2022, very difficult year to predict and a lot of contenders. I just don't remember when The Power of the Dog became the clear frontrunner. For now, I can't see a Power of thw Dog yet, so I look at these movies and still feeling strange. But I guess it will always be like that, we will became used to these.
Some of it yeah, but it almost feels like people (maybe the industry does this maybe not) were looking for a reason to not include it in above the line nominations because they went so overboard with Joker in 2019. It's more of a case where people are thinking "do we have to use up one of our slots on this again?"
We're along similar lines with 2 each from the Cannes/Venice lineups, except I have Almodovar instead of Corbet (depending on who wins the Lion) and then RaMell Ross over Villeneuve (I just don't think the hype from Dune 2 will last through the end of the year with this branch, also just avoiding predicting any of the IP/sequels here for now like Phillips, Scott, etc. until proven otherwise). I'm tempted to include Rasoulof as well but between the split Neon competition and the number of Cannes contenders, it would have to get in over Audiard but between Audiard's reputation and supposedly delivering a crowdpleasing work I feel he'd still have the edge.
My current predictions on the app (as of 23.8): *Best Director:* 15. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) 14. James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) 13. Ridley Scott (Gladiator II) 12. Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door) 11. Ali Abbasi (The Apprentice) 10. Edward Berger (Conclave) 9. Todd Phillips (Joker: Folie à Deux) 8. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) 7. RaMell Moss (Nickel Boys) 6. Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing) --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Luca Guadagnino (Queer) 4. Steve McQueen (Blitz) 3. Mohammad Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig) 2. Sean Baker (Anora) 1. Denis Villenueve (Dune: Part Two) *Best Original Screenplay:* 16. Rasmus Heisterberg and Joshua Oppenheimer (The End) 15. Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymis Filipou (Kinds of Kindness) 14. Justin Kuritzkes (Challengers) 13. Nick Payne (We Live in Time) 12. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) 11. Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvoid (The Brutalist) 10. Azazel Jacobs (His Three Daughters) 9. Jonathan Abrams (Juror No. 2) 8. Sean Wang (Didi) 7. Jason Reitman and Gil Kenan (Saturday Night) 6. Gabriel Sherman (The Apprentice) --------------------------------------------------------- 5. M*ke L*igh (Hard Truths) 4. Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain) 3. Mohammad Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig) 2. Steve McQueen (Blitz) 1. Sean Baker (Anora) *note that The Apprentice will immediately jump into the top 5 if it gets US distribution. *Best Adapted Screenplay:* 14. Rian Johnson (Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery) 13. Anthony McCarten (The Collaboration) 12. Barry Jenkins (The Fire Inside) 11. Meg LeFauve and Dave Holstein (Inside Out 2) 10. Todd Phillips and Scott Silver (Joker: Folie à Deux) 9. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez) 8. Peter Straughan (Conclave) 7. Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door) 6. Jay Cocks and James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Malcolm Washington and Virgil Williams (The Piano Lesson) 4. Justin Kuritzkes (Queer) 3. RaMell Moss and Joslyn Barnes (Nickel Boys) 2. Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing) 1. Jon Spaihts and Denis Villenueve (Dune: Part Two) P.S. look me up on The Awards Expert app @poihpio98 for more wrong predictions and even wronger favourites.
@@LiteraryPicks I'd rather not elaborate but not too long ago it was reported he did something I find so despicable that I refuse to grant him even a shred of my respect. It has to do with politics so I won't touch on it here.
@@poihpioakarp8845 Hi friend. Would you mind sharing an article of your findings? I cannot find any accusatory articles despite searching with key words. I would appreciate it
@@pb.j.1753but it’s honestly true, the scene with Paul manipulating the fremen might be one of the best scenes I have ever seen in cinema. No doubt this will be most people’s favourite film of the year (it will certainly be mine)
Oh Yeah Denis Villeneuve is winning Best Director 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 Dune has al least 8 memorable scenes that they define the potential win for Denis Villeneuve ✨️
2025 predictions currently Picture: Queer Director: Denis Villanueve Actor: Daniel Craig Actress: saoirse ronan Screenplay: Queer Adapted Screenplay: Sing Sing
I don’t know about that regarding The Brutalist. It does have a lot of things going for it that Oscar loves. Of course I realize it has to deliver on that and it may not but if it does I can see this being a shoe-in.
They snubbed Villeneuve for Dune 1 and they will do it AGAIN. It won 6 damn Oscars out of 10 nominations but the directors branch obviously doesn't give a damn about that franchise.
I think the quality of a lineup is what matters here. 2021 was a kind of tough year all things considered meanwhile you could argue 2024 is kind of lacking in options for Director slots. Edit: I also don't think Villeneuve is #1 I have Baker at 1 for Director atm.
Oscar noms morning wtf surprise (there’s always a few): Luca Guadagnino is nominated - for Challengers. About Queer: you guys tend to always make the argument that ‘this needs to be the director’s best movie in order for it to be recognized’. Guadagnino in serious mode has an obstacle in how good CMBYN is. If Queer is close to being as good, it will be a really top film.
My predictions (alphabetical) Best Director 1.Sean Baker-Anora 2.Steve McQueen-Blitz 3.Edward Berger-Conclave 4.Jacques Audiard-Emilia Perez 5.Luca Guadagnino-Queer Best Original Screenplay 1.Anora 2.Blitz 3.Emilia Perez 4.A Real Pain 5.Saturday Night Best Adapted Screenplay 1.Conclave 2.Nickel Boys 3.Queer 4.The Room Next Door 5.Sing Sing
@@Lamidemonami7891 His last three theatrical narrative films (Shame, 12 Years, Widows) launched in at least one of those - HIGHLY unlikely Blitz was withheld from them.
@@Lamidemonami7891Even though I don’t have proof because I am not able to hack into the mailboxes of the producers and Apple executives, I am not gonna be delulu and ignore this MAJOR red flag.
@@Lamidemonami7891I don’t have proof since I can’t hack into the emails of those involved. But I am not gonna be delulu and ignore this MASSIVE red flag.
Although Denis did a fantastic job with Dune pt 2. I think this is Sean Bakers year to win director. He deserves it. Also you guys are sleeping on Challengers. I can see it being nominated.
I don't even like The Substance and I still think Coralie Fargeat deserves to be in Director. She should have won Director and not Screenplay at Cannes in the first place.
If WB/Legendary/Villeneuve Films play their cards right _Dune II_ can pull a _Titanic._ Maybe even with Best Acting wins... Well, if the actors play their cards right too.
Sean Baker IS NOT A LOCK. I cannot wait for this thing to sink at TIFF. It is a IndieSpirit winner and I'm guessing a sole Screenplay nominee at Oscar.
Someone asked me what category does Yimoyhee Chalamet as actor fall under. The person said Timothee had a Capricorn stellium but in fact you go by Sidereal Sigl Ns which is more appropriate as Sidereal Signs represent a person:s karma in his profession and this is especially appropriate for actor who plays many roles so we want to analyze through Sidereal Signs. He has Sun. Mars and Jupiter in Sagittarius in the 5yh house. He has Mercury and Venus in the 6th house. He has Saturn in the 7th. He has Moon in the 8th. So he always switch hi conscious for roles that is essentially masculine in nature. But in case the role requires display of sorrow, he can become very emotional in nature. Asking him to playinfane roles like Little Women, he can become very playful and charming For roles that require him to depict the passing of events whatever hemdre like Fine or the Vampire show, he is very serious and dour Om Call Me By My Name because of his masculine consciousness ulatiom, he takes the lead in establishing the gay relationship but 5th house bring in Sagittarius he does it through books and book reading.
@pb.j.1753 You also wouldn't expect a woman having sex with a fish, a multiverse adventure or a pardory of Micheal Keatons career from the director of Babel & writer of Milk winning best picture & director Yet they all won so maybe Anora can follow that line
I know this sound pretty odd, but Queer represents a lot of the same trends that Coda, Parasite, and Shape of Water have. These all have a social movement (which should be obvious) that has resonated with millions of people. Because of this, I am 100% sure (only without seeing the trailer) Queer will win (best picture).
Gladiator II would have to be, objectively, the best film he's ever made and there's no way in hell that's happening. Gladiator II would need to be for Scott what Oppenheimer was for Nolan and then some for him to win.
Not having A Complete Unknown ANYWHERE in Best Director despite having it in Best Picture is a little crazy. Like, NOWHERE in the list? I don't think it'll get the Oscar nom at the end of the day, but it may very well get DGA. It's probably going to be very broadly appealing and popular.
He will never get a Director nomination. Mangold is not respected by the type of filmmakers who make up the Directors branch of the Academy. Even though FvF was in Picture, he wasn’t even in consideration for Director
Musical Biopics don’t really have the track record for Best Director noms. Some Best Picture WINNERS did not even get Director nominations, ask Argo, Green Book, CODA. The directors branch loves to do their own thing.
I think Mangold is too basic for the directors branch, he’s not an auteur like many previous nominees, also Complete Unknown is not getting Best Picture anyway so who cares.
not that competitive for this year best director lineup, Villeneuve's gonna take home an Oscar. It gonna do the same 'Life of Pi' Ang Lee scenario, like the most crafted movies takes best director. Predicted top five: Villeneuve, Baker, Berger, Kwedar, Guadangnino
Best Director 1. Sean Baker (Anora) 2. Luca Guadagnino (Queer) 3. Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door) 4. Edward Berger (Conclave) 5. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) Best Original Screenplay 1. Sean Baker (Anora) 2. Steve McQueen (Blitz) 3. Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain) 4. Justin Kuritzkes (Challengers) 5. Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold (The Brutalist) Best Adapted Screenplay 1. Justin Kuritzkes (Queer) 2. Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing) 3. Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door) 4. Jay Cocks & James Mangold (A Complete Unknown) 5. Peter Straughan (Conclave)
@@Lamidemonami7891 I think the Academy love music biopics. A lot of them are older and love Bob Dylan too I'm sure. I think they'll eat it up and want to reward Mangold.
@@SleepFan771 sorry but that’s non-sensical. When was the last time a director was nominated for a music biopic? How many Director nominations does James Mangold have? Do you not understand that the Directors branch is fundamentally opposed to recognizing Directors like Mangold unless their film is a top 3 contender (and I’ll bet you $100 to $1 right now A Complete Unknown won’t be anywhere near top 3). Like, sorry, but predicting him is just showing you’re not very knowledgeable about this sort of thing.
@@Lamidemonami7891 Directors can get nominated for the first time you know. I think most people's predictions will be wrong by later in the year anyways since the director's branch generally picks an international director with a film from a foreign language anyways. These are all just guesses now.
@@SleepFan771 yeah, Directors can get nominated for the first time for either being high brow/international filmmakers or for having their films in the top three for Best Picture. And you’re gone in the head if you think Mangold/A Complete Unknown is applicable to either category
I'm pretty confused by these guys' consistent downplaying of Blitz. McQueen's films are always in year-end top 10 lists and this looks like some of his most conventional material he's tackled, feels like a perfect match for Oscar chances to me. If its because of his work lately, well Small Axe was a miniseries and Widows was a genre exercise. The last film he made that was more awards tailored was up for 9 awards and won BP. What gives on the skepticism fellas?
I think we shouldn't undermine Sing Sing's chances of winning BP. Dune 2 is really really an achievement. But at the end of the day, i would get cozy with a feel good movie like Sing Sing.
ا Untill now Sing sing And Kind of kindness And Cate winslet film lee And The room next door for julian more Good trailers But the next door they will release it in decmber mean late in award seasion
@@yaeguuji1829 Who do you have at number one? I feel like we should know this if you're going to scoff at the obvious #1 at this point in the year being #1 on their lists.
Guadagnino is the number one director lock atm, over Baker. Guadagnino has the narrative of 2 excellent films in one year (assuming Queer is good) and Baker has things about him that could make him a target to get canceled, meaning he doesn't come along.
If we go about awarding and giving the Best Director Oscar to films that are technically well made and directed then Christopher Nolan and David Fincher should have gotten at least a half dozen Best Director Oscars each by now Oscar Expert but sadly only one of them has ONE! And no one has won a Director Oscar for a SciFi block buster SEQUEL duh. 😂😂😂😂
And before Lord of the Rings, no fantasy film had won for Picture, Director or Screenplay, but here we are. "It's never happened before" is not a solid standalone reason for saying something won't happen.
@@ClassicalMusic2002 that was a rare exception. Do you think the Academy awarded Nolan with the Dark Knight? Nope they awarded him with Oppenheimer even they didnt give it to him for Dunkirk. Do you think they would give it to Denis for a Part 2 of a scifi movie that is actually dragging and boring? All looks and posturing and unimaginative action sequences? LOL
@@pdgf oh ok, thanks for telling us all that your reasons against Dune II’s chances are based entirely on your dislike of the movie. Just because you found it boring and dragging doesn’t mean a majority of critics and audiences who loved it will turn their backs on it. Also “unimaginative” is just an objectively stupid take.
@@ClassicalMusic2002 let’s just wait if it gets all the top awards then, probably will win tech awards the first one but the top prizes hardly. It has to get an acting nom at least to be a viable best director and best picture candidate which it is NOT going to do lol but do keep on fangirling for this. It is a well made movie but dont get that blow you over and make you wet lol
Are you aware that film circles are the only people who've seen this movie? Besides, none of sean bakers movies have ever been big commercial hits (although they were all fairly cheap to make). This won't hurt awards chances though. It's a Palme winner and the first American movie to get that in 13 years. It is quite the guaranteed nominee in every category it is shortlisted for now
Haven’t seen Anora and I don’t think Villeneuve will ultimately win, but I have a very hard time seeing a bigger directorial achievement this year than Dune 2 so why is that a wild pick?
Have I seen Anora? .. No. Do I even need to see Anora to know without doubt that nothing in it approaches the craft of the direction of Dune Part 2? .. Also no.
absolute comedy hour at the Oscars if Denis isn't winning Best Director for Dune II. This whole "lord of the rings/peter jackson" argument doesn't work here. They shot those films back to back to back. Different books, different situation.
I'm actually surprised many people are rooting for Sean Baker, considering his zionist and right wing views Nor that matters regarding art, but i'm surprised
@@diaperwarfare5138 I mean we know this. Point to Tangerine however much you want but we have proof of his comments and likes proving that he’s got awful right-wing views
Go Denis Villeneuve 🧡
New York Film Festival Spotlight selections that got Best Picture nominations: Maestro in 2023, Women Talking in 2022, and Dune in 2021. Only one per year and none got Director. It's a young stat, but something to keep in mind, because both Emilia Perez and Queer are in that selection.
Just wanted to mention that I don’t think Conclave was rejected from Venice. Barbera mentioned that there was a clash of dates and Focus probably wanted the Telluride premiere
One thing worth noting: Since 2008, all except 2 of the TIFF People's Choice winners have won at least one Oscar in an above-the-line category (Screenplay, Acting, Directing, Picture). The only 2 exceptions are the 2011 winner (WHERE DO WE GO NOW?) and the 2022 winner (THE FABELMANS). AMERICAN FICTION won this last year and went on to win the Adapted Screenplay Oscar.
We need to pay close attention to what wins that award this year.
They know. That's why they're so Gung ho about Emilia Perez. They strongly believe it places there.
@@jurney3478 SATURDAY NIGHT strikes me as a film that can strongly place there too.
You guys are underestimating blitz , hard truth, all we imagine as light,
I kinda think Jacques Audiard could be like Ruben Ostlund. The Cannes audience likes him (look at their Palme wins), but the audiences are pretty divided on him and his film. And yet, even though people say “that seems like more of a screenplay/acting contender” he still gets nominated
yeah, that nomination for him in director was soooo weird and unexpected
Riding the Worm with Timmy... That would be a cool album title...
RaMell Ross is being so underestimated
The Room Next Door teaser was dropped . Looks interesting
I think Seed is gonna get the a separation Iranian original screenplay foreign nom combo
just no.
I think it's gonna be even bigger than that actually
@@poihpioakarp8845 I agree now
They’re representing Germany and since their campaign could be strong…I think Anatomy of a Fall or Triangle of Sadness package might happen
@@Mchannnel yep same (minus the acting nom that Anatomy had, that ain't happening for Fig)
It's something tuff to find out the favorites and then I realized that is just early September. Still, I always have this stange feeling that the movies you guys show in these predictions never feel like a good amount of movies, a deserved top 10 of the Oscars. But I feel like this every single year, it's a fact that the last two years we have strong contenders all over the year and earn favorites. So it seems a little like 2022, very difficult year to predict and a lot of contenders. I just don't remember when The Power of the Dog became the clear frontrunner. For now, I can't see a Power of thw Dog yet, so I look at these movies and still feeling strange. But I guess it will always be like that, we will became used to these.
Did Joker lose all his strength for the Oscars after the controversy with Joaquim Phoenix? It's a shame the awards work like this.
Some of it yeah, but it almost feels like people (maybe the industry does this maybe not) were looking for a reason to not include it in above the line nominations because they went so overboard with Joker in 2019. It's more of a case where people are thinking "do we have to use up one of our slots on this again?"
Yall are doing wayyy too much for Emilia Perez
why tho?
Don’t understand the hype at all
@@kieranthorold4495 oh yeah, because you're transphobic. how predictable.
@@kieranthorold4495 oh yeah, because you're tr4nsphobic. how predictable.
@@kieranthorold4495ur just a hater.
the antidiction for blitz did steve mcqueen shit in your coffee or smth
I see that Joslyn Barnes has also written two movies this year - co-writer on Nickel Boys and Harvest.
We're along similar lines with 2 each from the Cannes/Venice lineups, except I have Almodovar instead of Corbet (depending on who wins the Lion) and then RaMell Ross over Villeneuve (I just don't think the hype from Dune 2 will last through the end of the year with this branch, also just avoiding predicting any of the IP/sequels here for now like Phillips, Scott, etc. until proven otherwise).
I'm tempted to include Rasoulof as well but between the split Neon competition and the number of Cannes contenders, it would have to get in over Audiard but between Audiard's reputation and supposedly delivering a crowdpleasing work I feel he'd still have the edge.
Best Actress - Helena B Carter in One life 🔥 should include to ur list
2025 oscars predictions - best animated feature | august 2024
really hope Ridley Scott could have it
My current predictions on the app (as of 23.8):
*Best Director:*
15. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
14. James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
13. Ridley Scott (Gladiator II)
12. Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door)
11. Ali Abbasi (The Apprentice)
10. Edward Berger (Conclave)
9. Todd Phillips (Joker: Folie à Deux)
8. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)
7. RaMell Moss (Nickel Boys)
6. Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing)
---------------------------------------------------------
5. Luca Guadagnino (Queer)
4. Steve McQueen (Blitz)
3. Mohammad Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig)
2. Sean Baker (Anora)
1. Denis Villenueve (Dune: Part Two)
*Best Original Screenplay:*
16. Rasmus Heisterberg and Joshua Oppenheimer (The End)
15. Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymis Filipou (Kinds of Kindness)
14. Justin Kuritzkes (Challengers)
13. Nick Payne (We Live in Time)
12. Coralie Fargeat (The Substance)
11. Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvoid (The Brutalist)
10. Azazel Jacobs (His Three Daughters)
9. Jonathan Abrams (Juror No. 2)
8. Sean Wang (Didi)
7. Jason Reitman and Gil Kenan (Saturday Night)
6. Gabriel Sherman (The Apprentice)
---------------------------------------------------------
5. M*ke L*igh (Hard Truths)
4. Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)
3. Mohammad Rasoulof (The Seed of the Sacred Fig)
2. Steve McQueen (Blitz)
1. Sean Baker (Anora)
*note that The Apprentice will immediately jump into the top 5 if it gets US distribution.
*Best Adapted Screenplay:*
14. Rian Johnson (Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery)
13. Anthony McCarten (The Collaboration)
12. Barry Jenkins (The Fire Inside)
11. Meg LeFauve and Dave Holstein (Inside Out 2)
10. Todd Phillips and Scott Silver (Joker: Folie à Deux)
9. Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez)
8. Peter Straughan (Conclave)
7. Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door)
6. Jay Cocks and James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
---------------------------------------------------------
5. Malcolm Washington and Virgil Williams (The Piano Lesson)
4. Justin Kuritzkes (Queer)
3. RaMell Moss and Joslyn Barnes (Nickel Boys)
2. Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing)
1. Jon Spaihts and Denis Villenueve (Dune: Part Two)
P.S. look me up on The Awards Expert app @poihpio98 for more wrong predictions and even wronger favourites.
Why is Mike Leigh written like that?
@@LiteraryPicks I'd rather not elaborate but not too long ago it was reported he did something I find so despicable that I refuse to grant him even a shred of my respect. It has to do with politics so I won't touch on it here.
@@poihpioakarp8845 Oh wow. I had no idea. I will look into it. Thank you!
@@poihpioakarp8845 Hi friend. Would you mind sharing an article of your findings? I cannot find any accusatory articles despite searching with key words. I would appreciate it
@@LiteraryPicks again, chances are you'll disagree with me, it's a *very* political thing.
Reitman had some interesting direction in Up in the Air imo
Who's here after one of these broke the Pole Vault record in the Olympics?
Switch Guadagnino for Berger and that's my top 5
Omg!!!! Finally give us animation update!!!! It was promised now for 2 months!!!! Where is it!
Dune 2 should sweep. Easily the best movie in this weak year.
We are not even through the fall festivals and you already recap the year
@@pb.j.1753but it’s honestly true, the scene with Paul manipulating the fremen might be one of the best scenes I have ever seen in cinema. No doubt this will be most people’s favourite film of the year (it will certainly be mine)
@@galaxymoonlqght3732I have watched Dune 2 and I don’t remember that scene
@@pb.j.1753 you probably do. It’s when he convinces the fremen that he is the Lisan Al gaib
They wont give it to dune until its the final film, they did the same with peter Jackson in the lotr trilogy i assume they'll do that with this
Emilia Perez and The Brutalist in Director is crazy. And Amy Adams for Nightbitch I'm not feeling.
You guys stopped the membership thing?
Oh Yeah
Denis Villeneuve is winning Best Director 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Dune has al least 8 memorable scenes that they define the potential win for Denis Villeneuve ✨️
Property brothers are doing movie predictions now?
Im from.the future, brady corbet is the front runner for best director for the brutalist
2025 predictions currently
Picture: Queer
Director: Denis Villanueve
Actor: Daniel Craig
Actress: saoirse ronan
Screenplay: Queer
Adapted Screenplay: Sing Sing
Y’all are doing too much for the Nickel Boys and The Brutalist
I don’t know about that regarding The Brutalist. It does have a lot of things going for it that Oscar loves. Of course I realize it has to deliver on that and it may not but if it does I can see this being a shoe-in.
I'll do the Batusi if Justin Kuritzkes gets two nominations, as that's my go-to dance (and, like, also the only dance to which I know the moves).
I think sag ensemble will go to sing sing or Saturday night
They snubbed Villeneuve for Dune 1 and they will do it AGAIN. It won 6 damn Oscars out of 10 nominations but the directors branch obviously doesn't give a damn about that franchise.
I think the quality of a lineup is what matters here. 2021 was a kind of tough year all things considered meanwhile you could argue 2024 is kind of lacking in options for Director slots.
Edit: I also don't think Villeneuve is #1 I have Baker at 1 for Director atm.
A part of me still thinks they will nominate him, but he won't win, and then he will win for Part 3. Just like Peter Jackson.
Strange Darling will win Best Original Screenplay or there is no god
I Saw the TV Glow erasure??!?!?!?!?!
Indie Spirits contender
Not touching the oscars at all
Oscar noms morning wtf surprise (there’s always a few): Luca Guadagnino is nominated - for Challengers. About Queer: you guys tend to always make the argument that ‘this needs to be the director’s best movie in order for it to be recognized’. Guadagnino in serious mode has an obstacle in how good CMBYN is. If Queer is close to being as good, it will be a really top film.
Dune Part Two is Villenueve's magnum opus and will win at least a few Oscars.
This Anora love is insane. All based on the Palme win. Look at their history. It wont happen.
My predictions (alphabetical)
Best Director
1.Sean Baker-Anora
2.Steve McQueen-Blitz
3.Edward Berger-Conclave
4.Jacques Audiard-Emilia Perez
5.Luca Guadagnino-Queer
Best Original Screenplay
1.Anora
2.Blitz
3.Emilia Perez
4.A Real Pain
5.Saturday Night
Best Adapted Screenplay
1.Conclave
2.Nickel Boys
3.Queer
4.The Room Next Door
5.Sing Sing
i totally agree. It is Sean Baker year tbh
Dune part 2 is not winning directing
Blitz did not get into Telluride, Venice, and Toronto. It is not an actual contender for any awards it seems.
There’s no proof it tried getting into any of those festivals
@@Lamidemonami7891 His last three theatrical narrative films (Shame, 12 Years, Widows) launched in at least one of those - HIGHLY unlikely Blitz was withheld from them.
@@Lamidemonami7891Even though I don’t have proof because I am not able to hack into the mailboxes of the producers and Apple executives, I am not gonna be delulu and ignore this MAJOR red flag.
@@Lamidemonami7891I don’t have proof since I can’t hack into the emails of those involved. But I am not gonna be delulu and ignore this MASSIVE red flag.
Although Denis did a fantastic job with Dune pt 2. I think this is Sean Bakers year to win director. He deserves it.
Also you guys are sleeping on Challengers. I can see it being nominated.
drop luca..
add pedro...
I don't even like The Substance and I still think Coralie Fargeat deserves to be in Director. She should have won Director and not Screenplay at Cannes in the first place.
If WB/Legendary/Villeneuve Films play their cards right _Dune II_ can pull a _Titanic._ Maybe even with Best Acting wins... Well, if the actors play their cards right too.
Yap. Same for Alien Romulus
Dune: Part Two can definitely win best picture
Do you think the Dune Tv show will help or hurt DUNE
neither cause no one in film cares about it
It will only help if it’s like a MASSIVE hit, which doesn’t seem especially likely
Sean Baker IS NOT A LOCK. I cannot wait for this thing to sink at TIFF. It is a IndieSpirit winner and I'm guessing a sole Screenplay nominee at Oscar.
Blitz is not happening. Cannes and Venice rejected it. Sounds like a basic PG 13 TV family movie. Plus a far superior WW2 movie just won BP.
Where’s the proof it was rejected??
@@Lamidemonami7891 LOL Film Festivals don't release official statements where they say hey, we rejected this movie. That's not how it works.
@@camporosso yeah no shit. But you claimed it was rejected, and there’s no proof of it anywhere
@@Lamidemonami7891 You're really out of your element here. It's a very well known FACT among all insiders that it was rejected.
@@camporosso who exactly are these “insiders” you speak of? Just come out and say it if you’re getting your questionable info from Ruimy
♥♥♥
The dude who played mason in thirteen is directing the brutalist
Someone asked me what category does Yimoyhee Chalamet as actor fall under. The person said Timothee had a Capricorn stellium but in fact you go by Sidereal Sigl
Ns which is more appropriate as Sidereal Signs represent a person:s karma in his profession and this is especially appropriate for actor who plays many roles so we want to analyze through Sidereal Signs.
He has
Sun. Mars and Jupiter in Sagittarius in the 5yh house.
He has Mercury and Venus in the 6th house.
He has Saturn in the 7th.
He has Moon in the 8th.
So he always switch hi conscious for roles that is essentially masculine in nature. But in case the role requires display of sorrow, he can become very emotional in nature.
Asking him to playinfane roles like Little Women, he can become very playful and charming
For roles that require him to depict the passing of events whatever hemdre like Fine or the Vampire show, he is very serious and dour
Om Call Me By My Name because of his masculine consciousness ulatiom, he takes the lead in establishing the gay relationship but 5th house bring in Sagittarius he does it through books and book reading.
Are you alright in the head?
I'm 90% certain it's going to go to Sean Baker
Anora feels like a best picture winner
Nah. Baker's poverty porn/sex worker appreciation films will NEVER win Best Picture.
@@pb.j.1753 What do you think is winning best picture/director then
@pb.j.1753 You also wouldn't expect a woman having sex with a fish, a multiverse adventure or a pardory of Micheal Keatons career from the director of Babel & writer of Milk winning best picture & director
Yet they all won so maybe Anora can follow that line
@@CalumRoberts-i1x ‘Emilia Perez’ could end up winning. Netflix’s campaign is already massive, and they’re screening it at all the festivals.
@@caique6413 It does follow in the line of the Artist, Slumdog Millonaire & Chicago so maybe
Emilia Perez will definitely get screenplay if you think it’s in picture, every foreign movie in picture has gotten it
@@haroldandmod Musicals don’t get screenplay nominations
@@Lamidemonami7891 I think this will trump that, also it’s an original musical
I know this sound pretty odd, but Queer represents a lot of the same trends that Coda, Parasite, and Shape of Water have.
These all have a social movement (which should be obvious) that has resonated with millions of people. Because of this, I am 100% sure (only without seeing the trailer) Queer will win (best picture).
I personally am looking out for the possibility of Ridley Scott maybe finally getting his director Oscar if Gladiator 2 is major
Great video y’all ❤️
Gladiator II would have to be, objectively, the best film he's ever made and there's no way in hell that's happening. Gladiator II would need to be for Scott what Oppenheimer was for Nolan and then some for him to win.
@@ClassicalMusic2002 I don’t agree personally.
If it’s good and considered an Oscar player, I can see the academy taking the opportunity to award him
Not having A Complete Unknown ANYWHERE in Best Director despite having it in Best Picture is a little crazy. Like, NOWHERE in the list? I don't think it'll get the Oscar nom at the end of the day, but it may very well get DGA. It's probably going to be very broadly appealing and popular.
He will never get a Director nomination. Mangold is not respected by the type of filmmakers who make up the Directors branch of the Academy. Even though FvF was in Picture, he wasn’t even in consideration for Director
@@Lamidemonami7891 Being in Best Picture inherently gives you some chance.
@@TheHannahcast says who?
Musical Biopics don’t really have the track record for Best Director noms.
Some Best Picture WINNERS did not even get Director nominations, ask Argo, Green Book, CODA. The directors branch loves to do their own thing.
I think Mangold is too basic for the directors branch, he’s not an auteur like many previous nominees, also Complete Unknown is not getting Best Picture anyway so who cares.
not that competitive for this year best director lineup, Villeneuve's gonna take home an Oscar. It gonna do the same 'Life of Pi' Ang Lee scenario, like the most crafted movies takes best director.
Predicted top five: Villeneuve, Baker, Berger, Kwedar, Guadangnino
@@rick0223 Life of Pi only won because Affleck was snubbed lmao. Ang Lee wasn’t even competitive before that
Best Director
1. Sean Baker (Anora)
2. Luca Guadagnino (Queer)
3. Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door)
4. Edward Berger (Conclave)
5. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist)
Best Original Screenplay
1. Sean Baker (Anora)
2. Steve McQueen (Blitz)
3. Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain)
4. Justin Kuritzkes (Challengers)
5. Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold (The Brutalist)
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Justin Kuritzkes (Queer)
2. Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar (Sing Sing)
3. Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door)
4. Jay Cocks & James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)
5. Peter Straughan (Conclave)
Why would Mangold get a Director nomination??
@@Lamidemonami7891 I think the Academy love music biopics. A lot of them are older and love Bob Dylan too I'm sure. I think they'll eat it up and want to reward Mangold.
@@SleepFan771 sorry but that’s non-sensical. When was the last time a director was nominated for a music biopic? How many Director nominations does James Mangold have? Do you not understand that the Directors branch is fundamentally opposed to recognizing Directors like Mangold unless their film is a top 3 contender (and I’ll bet you $100 to $1 right now A Complete Unknown won’t be anywhere near top 3).
Like, sorry, but predicting him is just showing you’re not very knowledgeable about this sort of thing.
@@Lamidemonami7891 Directors can get nominated for the first time you know. I think most people's predictions will be wrong by later in the year anyways since the director's branch generally picks an international director with a film from a foreign language anyways. These are all just guesses now.
@@SleepFan771 yeah, Directors can get nominated for the first time for either being high brow/international filmmakers or for having their films in the top three for Best Picture. And you’re gone in the head if you think Mangold/A Complete Unknown is applicable to either category
I'm pretty confused by these guys' consistent downplaying of Blitz. McQueen's films are always in year-end top 10 lists and this looks like some of his most conventional material he's tackled, feels like a perfect match for Oscar chances to me. If its because of his work lately, well Small Axe was a miniseries and Widows was a genre exercise. The last film he made that was more awards tailored was up for 9 awards and won BP. What gives on the skepticism fellas?
Blitz‘ world premiere is at the London Film Festival and not in Telluride,Venice or TIFF. Huge red flag
I think we shouldn't undermine Sing Sing's chances of winning BP. Dune 2 is really really an achievement. But at the end of the day, i would get cozy with a feel good movie like Sing Sing.
Delulu
It is a shame that Neon is treating Seed of the sacred fig so poorly. I hope to see some change to their approach to the film.
Tomorrow it will be decided if Germany will submit it to the Oscars.
ا Untill now
Sing sing
And
Kind of kindness
And
Cate winslet film lee
And
The room next door for julian more
Good trailers
But the next door they will release it in decmber mean late in award seasion
kind of kindness not a contender at all
yo expert..let bro speak..you are not the king here..stop trying to bully your opinion over his...
Denis in #1 lol
Do you have Baker winning?
@@BC-fx2yt does have he a chance? We need to wait for venice and tiff.
@@yaeguuji1829 Who do you have at number one? I feel like we should know this if you're going to scoff at the obvious #1 at this point in the year being #1 on their lists.
Didi Didi Didi Didi Didi Didi Didi Didi Didi
Your app is an echo chamber of other annoying film twitter Oscar bros. It's useless as a prediction tool.
The tragedy of Macbeth was rejected at Venice in 2021 ,but yet it got critical acclaim at new York film festival,87% at metacritic
Guadagnino is the number one director lock atm, over Baker. Guadagnino has the narrative of 2 excellent films in one year (assuming Queer is good) and Baker has things about him that could make him a target to get canceled, meaning he doesn't come along.
The Seed of the Sacred Fig is overrated, especially the directing. Basic af.
If we go about awarding and giving the Best Director Oscar to films that are technically well made and directed then Christopher Nolan and David Fincher should have gotten at least a half dozen Best Director Oscars each by now Oscar Expert but sadly only one of them has ONE! And no one has won a Director Oscar for a SciFi block buster SEQUEL duh. 😂😂😂😂
And before Lord of the Rings, no fantasy film had won for Picture, Director or Screenplay, but here we are. "It's never happened before" is not a solid standalone reason for saying something won't happen.
@@ClassicalMusic2002 that was a rare exception. Do you think the Academy awarded Nolan with the Dark Knight? Nope they awarded him with Oppenheimer even they didnt give it to him for Dunkirk. Do you think they would give it to Denis for a Part 2 of a scifi movie that is actually dragging and boring? All looks and posturing and unimaginative action sequences? LOL
@@pdgf Oh you don't like Dune 2. That makes you very interesting and cool. Congratulations. Ouchee.. I burnt my finger on your scorching hot take.
@@pdgf oh ok, thanks for telling us all that your reasons against Dune II’s chances are based entirely on your dislike of the movie. Just because you found it boring and dragging doesn’t mean a majority of critics and audiences who loved it will turn their backs on it. Also “unimaginative” is just an objectively stupid take.
@@ClassicalMusic2002 let’s just wait if it gets all the top awards then, probably will win tech awards the first one but the top prizes hardly. It has to get an acting nom at least to be a viable best director and best picture candidate which it is NOT going to do lol but do keep on fangirling for this. It is a well made movie but dont get that blow you over and make you wet lol
Are you boys tiffing next month?
I have Robert Zemeckis for Here at number 6. I want to see that movie cook something great.
Anora is so overrated rn. It’s pretty woman meets uncut gems. It doesn’t appeal as widely outside the online film circles
Like all Sean Baker films
@@AmakaHubner-fn5fu when has accessibility to the general public become a way to define how good a movie is?
Are you aware that film circles are the only people who've seen this movie?
Besides, none of sean bakers movies have ever been big commercial hits (although they were all fairly cheap to make). This won't hurt awards chances though. It's a Palme winner and the first American movie to get that in 13 years. It is quite the guaranteed nominee in every category it is shortlisted for now
When was the last time anyone was excited for a Jason Reitman movie tho
How about let’s wait to put brutalist in officially until it’s dated and people have seen it and I loved Vox Lux.
Villeneuve above Baker? Yikes. These pics for Director are pretty wild lol.
Haven’t seen Anora and I don’t think Villeneuve will ultimately win, but I have a very hard time seeing a bigger directorial achievement this year than Dune 2 so why is that a wild pick?
Baker is fine but he's no Villeneuve
Have I seen Anora? .. No.
Do I even need to see Anora to know without doubt that nothing in it approaches the craft of the direction of Dune Part 2? .. Also no.
A Real Pain is not an Oscar-caliber film. STOP IT
absolute comedy hour at the Oscars if Denis isn't winning Best Director for Dune II. This whole "lord of the rings/peter jackson" argument doesn't work here. They shot those films back to back to back. Different books, different situation.
They already pulled a „comedy hour“ by giving Dune 10 nominations, 6 wins and no Director nomination. They are not afraid to do it again.
Sean Baker is gonna win best director. Dune 2 is best picture.
That would be an absolutely INSANE way to split the two.
I'm actually surprised many people are rooting for Sean Baker, considering his zionist and right wing views
Nor that matters regarding art, but i'm surprised
WAIT WHAT??
He also has controversial Russian actors.
The man that made Tangerine is right wing? Really think about that
He may be a bit of an edgelord but he is absolutely not right wing LMFAO
@@diaperwarfare5138 I mean we know this. Point to Tangerine however much you want but we have proof of his comments and likes proving that he’s got awful right-wing views
First
wrong 🤡🤡🤡
Cat
Great choices for Male Director... now do Female Director