Saw Anora this weekend and while I loved it, it would be a very odd bp winner. The second act is almost entirely slapstick humour and only towards the end did the thematics start doing some work. If it weren't for critics eating it up, I would just think of it being like Sean Baker's other films
haven’t seen anora, but judging by your description, it does harken back to eeaao and poor things since there are prolonged stretches of those films which aren’t really “oscar-bait” and fall more into screwball comedy or action
I know it’s such an unlikely possibility but I’m rooting for The Substance so incredibly hard. That movie stepped on my spine in the best possible way.
Now, the basic argument is that the old academy voters will not like the substance. Ok, but the older voters will like the gen z classic Anora? I dont think so.
Director and Production Design. Best case scenario in Actor is Adrien Brody vs. Ralph Fiennes, and I REALLY doubt Brody wins THAT fight. Adrien Brody: Hollywood's weasel man who, honestly, squeaked out a win against four prior winners and moved on to about two decades of DEEP disappointment. Ralph Fiennes: A long term enduring, and bizarrely under-nominated (2!? Shouldn't he be at 4-6?), classic.
Because they want to see Zoe Saldana winning and Selena Gomes being nominated with Emilia Perez They don't support the names who spoil they prediction.
@@Cafe-yz4fm "These boys discuss the movies objectively, drawing on past years and their knowledge of how previous Oscar seasons have unfolded, including the types of films that have success and those that don't-i.e., (substance)
The Substance is not just an American film. it is a French and British production too. Therefore its box office success isn't relevant but its story is and most of the nominees wont make money anyway. Awards movies are not meant to make money unless big blockbusters so you guys need to create different excuses.
Anybody who watched the substance knows that the substance is not a regular horror move like Saw or Scream. It is about an aging star in Hollywood and entertaining industry. Many Hollywood stars will definitely resonate the story and Demi Moor's performance
It all starts with Demi's appearance at the Golden Globes. They love to honor stars, and she may be placed in the best actress in the comedy category. For that measure, it tends to be easier to receive a best picture nomination in GG's comedy/musical category. Between this, critics' circles and some of the guilds, the momentum grows from there.
it's frustrating that these experts are still hanging on these gladiator 2 predictions... I've noticed after the new trailer, people have dropped it down in their predictions, understandably so but they're still not giving up on it.
Lupita got sag for a movie that made over 100 mil and still didn’t get nominated. The substance hasn’t even passed 10 mil yet and doesn’t have quite as good of reviews as Us or Hereditary
@@williammccormick984 since the movie was classified under comedy at the globes that could help it a little bit. But you’re right there’s not a ton of momentum right now. It would need a lot of precursor support to get even Moore in.
That’s the thing, is Brutalist just has a higher ceiling for wins. Anora’s best shot is screenplay and possibly Actress (but I’ve been really feeling Saoirse Ronan lately)
Assumptions of Best Picture winners with high win counts just aren't super reflective of modern Academy. Yes, we're just off two BP winners with 7 wins. But before that double, what was the Last BP winner with even 5 wins? The Artist, in 2011. Projected Wins? Anora: Original Screenplay, Picture, Cinematography The Brutalist: Director, Production Design (It's a movie literally about a genius architect! I'm expecting STUNNING PD Work.) Sing Sing: Adapted Screenplay Emilia Perez: Original Song, Editing Dune: Part Two: VFX Conclave: Actor Nickel Boys: Supporting Actress Blitz: Actress A Real Pain: Supporting Actor Gladiator 2: Original Score.
@Volvagia1927 Saoirse was confirmed to be supporting for Blitz. I was predicting her for The Outrun which will probably be the more acclaimed performance anyway
The Substance has a package that may make it difficult to deny to at least sneak into BP: Demi Moore for BA Sound is integral, and clearly a standout. Director would be the only real chance for female representation, and it is a "director-y" film It already won screenplay at Cannes Cinematography comes along with BP nominees, and BTW is stunning Other long shots include score and an unforgettable supporting turn from Dennis Quaid
I don’t agree with your take on The Room Next Door. People try to undermine the standing ovation it got at Venice because Almodóvar went and met the audience, but he did that when he already had 14 minutes worth of standing ovations on his hands! When audiences, at least a select group, love your film that much, who are the critics on the equation? The argument that the Academy wouldn’t embrace a film with this subject matter is ridiculous. Amour by Michael Haneke was nominated 12 years ago, and it delved into euthanasia in a much darker way. Ever since then, the Academy has gotten more international, which bodes well for Almodóvar, and takes way more risks than they used to. For example, Best Picture nods for Zone of Interest, Anatomy of A Fall, Triangle of Sadness, etc.. Finally, to say the Venice jury wanted to give Almodóvar the Golden Lion just because of personal intentions is a lie. No one in the jury has ever worked or has a relation with him. Furthermore, that wasn’t a fact we considered when Guillermo del Toro awarded the Golden Lion to his pal Alfonso Cuarón for Roma. I think The Room Next Door will be a big contender!
yeah, i had a wtf reaction when they said that "all the beauty and the bloodsheed" and "the happening" didn't do well at the Oscars. like literally excluding those two films the previous Golden Lions winners were: "Poor Things", "Nomadland", "Joker", "Roma" and "The Shape of Water" which were incredibly strong at the oscars
if any film is like chicago it’s probably emilia perez, right? buzzy crime musical with a strong lead actress and two strong supporting actress performances?
@@Extracredittttt ofc not, this guy has a history on their channel of being irked by the bros having their preferences on who they want nominated, such as Greta Lee last year. He’s just salty
The percentage of critics who liked Nickel Boys on Rotten Tomatoes is 81%, but the average point is 8.8 out of 10, which is staggeringly high. So currently it is The Zone of Interest.
yeah because netflix biopic about swimmer with several time oscar nominee is the same as body horror insanity (complimentary) with someone whos never been nominated
@@nate-it9xq I don't think you understand. Last year. They said Annette could not get an Oscar nomination even with a SAG nomination because she was too weak. But Annette did manage to get an Oscar nomination in the end. You never know history might repeat itself.
I will say that every pundit that saw Blitz changed his prediction immediately to around number 8-13. Matt Neglia doesn’t have it in his 10 for Director/Screenplay. I am getting worried
Not to act like a soothsayer, but it just seems likely to me that if anything, September 5 is going to trade places with it as the Paramount MVP. Not that a Paramount film HAS to get in, but I feel them throwing their weight behind it more, plus Sarsgaard for acting, plus Original Screenplay. (Now if Juror #2 actually is any good, and Eastwood pulls one last famous WB hail mary like in his 2003-2006 heyday, that's trouble maybe. Or Blitz falls off, and maybe there's room for both.)
@@RehabRaccoon69 yeah, september 5 is clearly paramount's backup unless g2 doesn't work out and the studio knows that it's entirely possible given ridley's recent track record.
I wish Sing Sing had expanded to more markets. It's insane that living in Nashville I didn't have any screenings anywhere near me. It's not a huge market, but they could have at least gotten it into cities
Exactly. Granted I’m from Chattanooga and that’s not as big as Nashville or other large cities. However I was also surprised that there were no showings near me. The closest were Atlanta and it was literally in one theater for very limited showings. Guess I’m waiting for streaming lol
@@SamsMythDesign When?? Where?? I looked for it every week and it never showed up on any movie booking website. Even if it was in town it wasn't accessible
@@big-fish1199It opened August 8 at the Belcourt and ran at least two weeks. They even had a special event hosting the theatre director and inmates from a similar program as that depicted in the film
First, holy shit, congrats on 500 members! You deserve that big time. Second, here's my case for Juror #2: It is supposedly Clint Eastwood's last film as a director. But more importantly, I feel like Juror won't be as controversial as some of his other films like Richard Jewell. It's completely fictional, unlike most of his other recent works, and considering it's a courtroom drama, it's much more catered to oscar voters. If it can be a very good, agreeable film, I can easily see Picture, Director, Original Screenplay (WGA covered by the way), Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor (Simmons looks like he's gonna be a big character), and Editing. It just feels like the right film to send Eastwood off (even though I'm not much of a fan of American Sniper or Richard Jewell).
47:34 The twins pretend to like the substance, but they don't. More importantly, they don't want you to predict Demi Moore either. Every time they walk about The Substance, I have noticed, they are very negative about it.
I went to this timestamp, and they are talking about how they like it and wish it was getting pushed more by critics etc. is there reason to believe they would be dishonest about their real feelings?
I saw September 5 on the same day as Saturday Night at Telluride - and September 5 was by far the superior movie about one hectic day of creating live TV.
I'm currently predicting "The Brutalist." It hearkens back to '70s-era moviemaking, and in a year where we had "Megalopolis" crash and burn, the existence of "The Brutalist" will prove that that classic style is alive and well in the current generation, and most importantly, the fact that something was made at that scale for under $10 million is a HELL of a story. PGA is going to eat that up, and the directors' branch are going to be gobsmacked by how Corbet was able to pull that off at such a young age and with such a low budget, especially in the era of these catastrophically high-budgeted films. What gives me pause on "Anora" is that while I think it will do very well with nominations, I'm not yet convinced Madison is winning Best Actress, which I think would be a much-needed win for the film as a whole to take the top prize. She's still a very new face and it's very rare an ingenue wins the lead acting prize their first time out, and I think she's got stiff competition from Ronan and Gascon. If Madison becomes a sweeper, I'll be more convinced "Anora" is our winner, but for now, I have it in second place behind "The Brutalist," a film that I think will be less divisive among the general voting branches and which will be the bigger tech player.
My reason for The Room Next Door being a potential nominee is similar to why it won Golden Lion. Not because the jury loved it, but because his friends want to see him get recognized. There's a possibility that his Academy friends will too just because English film. He will have support from directors and actors that have worked with him before. He's gotten lead nominations the last two films. Golden Globes could give it early buzz with Acting, Directing, and Music nominations. It will probably blank at CC and SAG. BAFTA could revive it and that could be enough
Got to see Nickel Boys early at Twin Cities Film Festival 2024. It’s up there with Anora for my favorite of the year (haven’t seen Brutalist yet). Sadly I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets ignored. The Academy did the same thing with Blindspotting in 2018.
Sing Sing is incredible, but looking at the big picture, people just seem to have a general allergy towards "prison movies." It's hard to think of one that was actually successful (even Shawshank was viewed as a dud when it was released, despite its Oscar noms). Not sure if that explains the awkward rollout that a24 has given it.
I was at telluride and people who saw Sept. 5 liked it but nobody was buzzing about it. Feel like the big push the publications are giving it feels surface face political And outside of that one online poll, Nickel Boys was wowing people. Even those that didn’t like it couldn’t outright deny it
Everyone knows some shady members are trying to push it because it's Zionist propaganda meant to make you justify atrocities happening against the Palestineans (and now the Lebanese) That's why the film isn't liked by anyone but it's still getting pushed.
Huh not sure whether The Revenant and 1917 are the best comparison for The Brutalist's release... While it's true they also released in december, The Brutalist has on its side the fact that it has already been seen by some and it has incredible buzz from the festivals (while the other two were classical late releases). Even though the fact that not everybody will have seen it could be limitating, it might be just enough for getting the nominations, while the right timing for the release might boost it in the winning conversation. Anora probably still has the edge because of other factors, but I wouldn't attribute it to the release strategy.
One thing I would point out in a year like 2024 is I wonder how the political climate, election outcome and prevailing zeitgeist affects the choice of Academy members. That could sometimes be the difference between an Anora winning or The Brutalist winning. If things are looking up, an Anora. may win but if there's uncertainty and things look grim in January, The Brutalist could have an edge.
To me, I would have Fiennes in the top two because of the narrative and him being the most consistently praised aspect of the movie. I honestly see him winning BAFTA over Brody and with Colman less singled out that Maclin and playing Bob Dylan isn’t as flashy as other musicians, I think Fiennes should be considered a bigger contender at the moment imo. But you guys do have great reasoning otherwise keep it up 👍
Last 7 Golden Lion winners: 5 nominated for Picture, Director, Acting and Screenplay, all of them won at least one of them. 4 of those winners were in English, HALF of them (2) went on to win Picture and Director. What TRND is doing because of the initial mild reception is mostly a shock to see an Almodovar film in English and with Anglo-Saxon performers, also, away from the most Almodovar brand and reflecting on life and death, as he has never done before, in such an authorial way. I guess it's a film designed to grow on multiple viewings and with time passing, and most reviews are just out-of-the-theater. We've seen this before and be in shock how films that were received tepidly by critics and audiences, are re-evaluated, some quite quickly, in time to score surprising Film Critic Circles wins and even Oscars. I have the sense that it's a formidable contender and Globes aside, it'll do well at BAFTA and SAG, and probably get some love from LAFC and score a PGA and AFI top 10 nomination. Oh, and neither The Shape of Water, Nomadland, Joker or Poor Things were Oscar stuff... Roma was, but in Spanish and The Room Next Door is baity on its subject and English spoken. Marty, del Toro, didn't win for their best film, did they?
Great video guys!! Can’t wait to go through this awards season with you again My Best Picture Picks 1. The Brutalist 2. Anora 3. Dune Part 2 4. The Substance 5. Conclave 6. Sing Sing 7. Emilia Perez 8. A Real Pain 9. Gladiator 2 10. Nickel Boys Some of these are my favourite picks of the year like The Brutalist & The Substance. Some I haven’t seen yet but I’ve heard amazing things & seeing people really raving about.
Of what I've seen, The Brutalist; I think now it's clear for Anora! Id really love Ramell Ross and Coralie Fargeat to get directing Nods. I dont love NickelBoys but i admire it. I admire and love The Substance. No, NO movies this year are sheer perfection of a directors Vision. Tho and, finally: craziest thing that could easily happen is Kidman and Brody winning Best lead again, second time each, same year. I believe it Never happened.
Hello The Oscar expert my name is Isaiah and I have something important to say to you guys. God loves you and like any father he wants to help you and keep you safe especially from the devil. But I am not just speaking to you about this I am also talking to your fans about this. God loves us all and he wants us all to be saved not just from ourselves but from the devils clutches. Do not be afraid to come to the Lord for his love is for evreyone Shalom Shalom.
I think you guys were too quickly dismissive of The Room Next Door. American film critics did not like it VERY much but international critics went nuts for it. It placed high on a lot of International polls from Venice. So much that I was predicting it to win the second biggest prize. And yes, I know in the Oscar race American film critics matters the most but a lot of international critics vote for the Globes (which you already mentioned in the video about this possibility). But there's a lot of international industry people at the Academy now and Almodovar is very well liked among these. I guess we'll have to wait and see how it does at the EFAs. They became an interesting precursor these last few years, giving us many clues in races like directing and screenplay. TRND and The Substance are eligible there. So as Emilia Perez, Conclave, Hard Truths and The Seed of the Sacred Fig.
The Zone of Interest was well-received by audiences because it was marketed really well - everyone who went into that movie knew exactly what to expect.
@@RB-.- It made $52 million on a $15 million budget, and I can't find any evidence of that cinemascore. It doesn't seem like cinemascore actually polled the movie.
Like many I’m rooting for the substance. I don’t think it’s as impossible as it might seem, though the last 20 mins makes the argument for it’s oscar nom placement a lot harder. Also, the new complete unknown trailer actually looks really good. Have my doubts about a real pain and i would probably switch the two in BP
Come to think of the fact that you guys had Anora,The Brutalist and Emilia Perez at 32, 24 and 41 at the beginning of the year. 😁😁😁Just how fast the Oscar race changes.............
Last year was a weak year. Dune 2, Anora, The Brutalist, The Outrun, Nickelboys, The Beast, The Wild Robot, The Substance, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Monkey Man, Challengers, The First Omen, Megalopolis, Late Night with the Devil, Cuckoo came out this year. Competition is heavy.
I really think this SHOULD be Dune's year to win Best Picture - no movie has been talked about to the degree Dune has when it comes to box office success and awards buzz
My picks match like 9/10 lmaoo just have Sept 5 over Glad II since I think the latter is box office dependent on its nomination. Race seems like it's still kinda open since I think only the Top 6/7 are relatively safe Congrats on getting Gold Derby Expert, Cole!
Bro !!! Where did you get that rabbit shirt...????? Love it ! Do tell.....lol. As far as "movies" for Best Picture....pretty much agree, so far, with you guys.NEVER...have I understood the "hype" for the Dune movies (sorry,not sorry). I predict major surprises in most Oscar categories....I think that there are so/too many possibilities in many categories. Love you channel guys ! Thank you !!!
as the twins said in one of their previous videos, there is a passion for the Substance and Demi Moore. if you look at golddery forum you can see that too
Get Out was not disgusting to watch nor overlong. Its themes are treated smartly and not with a sledgehammer. The Substance is currently at 12 million dollars at the box office, Get Out had 255 million by the end.
@@pb.j.1753 The substance is not American film, its box office is soooooo irrelavent. " Get Out was not disgusting to watch nor overlong. Its themes are treated smartly and not with a sledgehammer" too bad you dont get it.
I'm still not seeing how it can't be Dune. That movie is simply on a different level, to basically do every aspect of filmmaking (writing, direction, acting, cinemtography, editing, score, set/costume design, etc.) at perfection at THAT scale, practically unheard of. Only other comparison would be The Return of the King, and we know what that did at the Oscars.
The Dune movies are severely overrated, man. Dune Part II is a 7.5/10 at best, and the first one was outright subpar. Maybe Dune: Messiah will be better, but Part II honestly doesn’t deserve a Best Picture nomination
@@logantamlyn9727 100% serious. Denis’ Dune films are a massive disappointment. He should’ve done a miniseries instead to actually have time to delve into the characters and plot. Instead he made two Marvel movies
You’re quite explicit about not attributing any credit to films you haven't watched, only based on their trailers, but you appeared quite sure about Gladiator 2 after only viewing the trailer. Doesn't that seem a little contradictory?
I just saw community predictions for Oscars on your app and I must ask... are people so delusional about Dune Part 2 😱 Majority is predicting 8 Oscars for Dune, basically all tech categories 😂 I mean Dune is good but very very veeery far from being THAT good
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I clicked like an addict
me too wtf
SAME, my lunch will be so much better now
Same
I felt this lmaooo
I tapped like a tapper.
Demi Moore and The Substance all the way
Saw Anora this weekend and while I loved it, it would be a very odd bp winner. The second act is almost entirely slapstick humour and only towards the end did the thematics start doing some work. If it weren't for critics eating it up, I would just think of it being like Sean Baker's other films
haven’t seen anora, but judging by your description, it does harken back to eeaao and poor things since there are prolonged stretches of those films which aren’t really “oscar-bait” and fall more into screwball comedy or action
I know it’s such an unlikely possibility but I’m rooting for The Substance so incredibly hard. That movie stepped on my spine in the best possible way.
Demi can make it in and should
they want t you to believe it is unlikely . never give up the oscars morning
@@SamsMythDesign I hope she does!!!
Now, the basic argument is that the old academy voters will not like the substance. Ok, but the older voters will like the gen z classic Anora? I dont think so.
Anora is a Gen z classic? Huh?
I’m late to the party but a film about a sex worker can be loved by the voters no matter if the content is very modern
@@thebigss3620 Yeah, you're late. Shut the fuck up.
Coralie Fargeat did a great job with The Substance, an instant classic with Demi, Margaret and Dennis.
can’t believe brady went from the painfully underrated excellence of Vox Lux straight to an actual oscar frontrunner
Him as mason in thirteen
Darling, Demi Moore and The Substance will get an Oscar nomination, no matter what
Yeah good luck with that
Would be fun but very low chance
I think the substance will be winning guarantee winning makeup hopefully it gets in there for editing and screenplay but we'll see
I think the Brutalist will will Picture, Director, and Actor
Director and Production Design. Best case scenario in Actor is Adrien Brody vs. Ralph Fiennes, and I REALLY doubt Brody wins THAT fight. Adrien Brody: Hollywood's weasel man who, honestly, squeaked out a win against four prior winners and moved on to about two decades of DEEP disappointment. Ralph Fiennes: A long term enduring, and bizarrely under-nominated (2!? Shouldn't he be at 4-6?), classic.
@@Volvagia1927 Brody's first win was WELL DESERVED.
The brutslist gonna win
The substance has great craftsmanship and deserves at least several nominations but the twins keep ignoring it on purpose
Why do you think they are ignoring it on purpose?
They’ve literally said it stands a great shot at makeup but horror movies rarely get nominated for Oscar’s. That’s a fact.
Why are u underestimating felicity Jones for best supporting actress?
This will be her second nomination .
Because they want to see Zoe Saldana winning and Selena Gomes being nominated with Emilia Perez They don't support the names who spoil they prediction.
I watched The Brutalist and Felicity deserves a nomination 💯
@@Cafe-yz4fmbro fuck off go cry to your blow up sex doll
@@Cafe-yz4fm "These boys discuss the movies objectively, drawing on past years and their knowledge of how previous Oscar seasons have unfolded, including the types of films that have success and those that don't-i.e., (substance)
The Substance is not just an American film. it is a French and British production too. Therefore its box office success isn't relevant but its story is and most of the nominees wont make money anyway. Awards movies are not meant to make money unless big blockbusters so you guys need to create different excuses.
Anybody who watched the substance knows that the substance is not a regular horror move like Saw or Scream. It is about an aging star in Hollywood and entertaining industry. Many Hollywood stars will definitely resonate the story and Demi Moor's performance
It all starts with Demi's appearance at the Golden Globes. They love to honor stars, and she may be placed in the best actress in the comedy category. For that measure, it tends to be easier to receive a best picture nomination in GG's comedy/musical category. Between this, critics' circles and some of the guilds, the momentum grows from there.
Wow, the twins are very dismissive about The Substance.
It seems like they believe the film is really good but don't believe that the industry will reward them.
@@Extracredittttt oscars hate horror
@@TomatoGhost982 yeah exactly. It sounds like they think these biases will snub the substance, not that the film isnt worthy of the attention
What TomatoGhost said ^ it’s rare to ever see a horror get recognition
it's frustrating that these experts are still hanging on these gladiator 2 predictions... I've noticed after the new trailer, people have dropped it down in their predictions, understandably so but they're still not giving up on it.
Why is it frustrating
the film looks great? I don't understand the hate / doubt against it. newest trailer was awesome
@@purekinema because there are far more interesting contenders than an unnecessary sequel.
@@nafischowdhury7375 All movies are unnecessary. Let's wait until it comes out and you watch it before judging it
@@purekinema you are wrong. not all movies are unnecessary.
The Substance can make it.
I can feel the substance building momentum, even if it doesn’t get picture, I think it could get a director nom
what momentum
Lupita got sag for a movie that made over 100 mil and still didn’t get nominated. The substance hasn’t even passed 10 mil yet and doesn’t have quite as good of reviews as Us or Hereditary
Lol. You guys are funny.
LOL. No, you can't. There is no momentum.
@@williammccormick984 since the movie was classified under comedy at the globes that could help it a little bit. But you’re right there’s not a ton of momentum right now. It would need a lot of precursor support to get even Moore in.
That’s the thing, is Brutalist just has a higher ceiling for wins. Anora’s best shot is screenplay and possibly Actress (but I’ve been really feeling Saoirse Ronan lately)
I feel the exact same way with Ronan. I just am really feeling like one of her performances will win.
Assumptions of Best Picture winners with high win counts just aren't super reflective of modern Academy. Yes, we're just off two BP winners with 7 wins. But before that double, what was the Last BP winner with even 5 wins? The Artist, in 2011. Projected Wins?
Anora: Original Screenplay, Picture, Cinematography
The Brutalist: Director, Production Design (It's a movie literally about a genius architect! I'm expecting STUNNING PD Work.)
Sing Sing: Adapted Screenplay
Emilia Perez: Original Song, Editing
Dune: Part Two: VFX
Conclave: Actor
Nickel Boys: Supporting Actress
Blitz: Actress
A Real Pain: Supporting Actor
Gladiator 2: Original Score.
@Volvagia1927 Saoirse was confirmed to be supporting for Blitz. I was predicting her for The Outrun which will probably be the more acclaimed performance anyway
@Volvagia1927 Overall you have a point
That Juror #2 trailer though. Goodness. Trailer of the year
Respectfully, the Nosferatu trailers have been better.
the substance's trailer exists
Hoult getting slept on
@@Sharpe1502Nicholas Hoult is just the trailer king of the year I guess
The Substance has a package that may make it difficult to deny to at least sneak into BP:
Demi Moore for BA
Sound is integral, and clearly a standout.
Director would be the only real chance for female representation, and it is a "director-y" film
It already won screenplay at Cannes
Cinematography comes along with BP nominees, and BTW is stunning
Other long shots include score and an unforgettable supporting turn from Dennis Quaid
Nice joke
It’s a horror movie. It won’t come close to getting in
the subtance has so much potential. but the boys keeps saying make up or bust instead of exploring the options.
@@maxwellpiercy680 The Substance could easily go down the Black Swan route.
@@kamaal_i Black Swan also made 329 million at the box office while the substance has only made 13 million so far
I don’t agree with your take on The Room Next Door. People try to undermine the standing ovation it got at Venice because Almodóvar went and met the audience, but he did that when he already had 14 minutes worth of standing ovations on his hands! When audiences, at least a select group, love your film that much, who are the critics on the equation? The argument that the Academy wouldn’t embrace a film with this subject matter is ridiculous. Amour by Michael Haneke was nominated 12 years ago, and it delved into euthanasia in a much darker way. Ever since then, the Academy has gotten more international, which bodes well for Almodóvar, and takes way more risks than they used to. For example, Best Picture nods for Zone of Interest, Anatomy of A Fall, Triangle of Sadness, etc.. Finally, to say the Venice jury wanted to give Almodóvar the Golden Lion just because of personal intentions is a lie. No one in the jury has ever worked or has a relation with him. Furthermore, that wasn’t a fact we considered when Guillermo del Toro awarded the Golden Lion to his pal Alfonso Cuarón for Roma. I think The Room Next Door will be a big contender!
It won the damn Lion. They are underestimating it.
yeah, i had a wtf reaction when they said that "all the beauty and the bloodsheed" and "the happening" didn't do well at the Oscars. like literally excluding those two films the previous Golden Lions winners were: "Poor Things", "Nomadland", "Joker", "Roma" and "The Shape of Water" which were incredibly strong at the oscars
@@mati321 Exactly, couldn’t have said it better! They are definitely underestimating it
So the brutalist is like the pianist, then that means anora is like chicago
???
if any film is like chicago it’s probably emilia perez, right? buzzy crime musical with a strong lead actress and two strong supporting actress performances?
I still believe Almodovar is getting in even if it's not it's most aclaimed movie. The movie being in english is going to do a lot for it.
The substance more than a horror. It is Demi, it is Hollywood
@@KenSelvin-m3m …huh?
Boys, ignore The substance as much as you want Demi is happening
Boys, ignore Hereditary as much as you want Toni is happening
Boys, ignore Us as much as you want Lupita is happening
no matter what these two say, the substance is the real winner!!!!
so the boys' agenda for 2025 oscars is Anora and they will push Anora until march 2nd.
What does this mean? Do they have a history of campaigning for certain films in a way that feels disingenuous/cynical?
@@Extracredittttt ofc not, this guy has a history on their channel of being irked by the bros having their preferences on who they want nominated, such as Greta Lee last year. He’s just salty
@@ClassicalMusic2002 interesting! Real weirdo behavior
Excellent video bros! Really hoping "The Substance" gets some support this awards season.
@@patrickorourke3710 I would be SO happy if it did. I'm pulling for Demi for a nom as well as the screenplay!
I would LOVE to see The Substance here. It’s definitely one of my personal top 5 of the year so far.
I think it can get a lot of nominations before the Oscars and then nothing at the Oscars. Too gross to watch
Demi can make it in and should. Coralie best shot at a female director. Everyone has mad respect for what the two of them did with this,
the twins will never support the substance. they just ignore it cos their agenda is Anora
If the substance does not receive indications heads will roll!!!
these two remind of-the Menendez Brothers😂
Rude wth
@@ClassicalMusic2002 not at all
@@chichime4726 “these two remind me of convicted murderers” is quite uncalled for
@@ClassicalMusic2002I think it is rather entertaining. relax
The percentage of critics who liked Nickel Boys on Rotten Tomatoes is 81%, but the average point is 8.8 out of 10, which is staggeringly high. So currently it is The Zone of Interest.
Brother Bro’s Mr. Burns Impression In The Thumbnail
the substance the real winner!!!!!!
Demi Moore will be your this year's Annette Benning boyz 🙂
yeah because netflix biopic about swimmer with several time oscar nominee is the same as body horror insanity (complimentary) with someone whos never been nominated
@@nate-it9xq I don't think you understand. Last year. They said Annette could not get an Oscar nomination even with a SAG nomination because she was too weak. But Annette did manage to get an Oscar nomination in the end. You never know history might repeat itself.
@@peterjayconway7103 that could apply to literally anyone though what point is this 😭
I will say that every pundit that saw Blitz changed his prediction immediately to around number 8-13. Matt Neglia doesn’t have it in his 10 for Director/Screenplay. I am getting worried
Gladiator at 10 is a joke, this movies looks horrendous
1. Anora
2. The Brutalist
3. Conclave
4. Emilia Perez
5. Blitz
6. A Complete Unknown
7. Sing Sing
8. A Real Pain
9. Dune II
10. Juror #2
Can’t wait for Gladiator 2 to get off that list
you spoke my mind. it's baffling how people are still holding onto that when tachnically nobody has seen it.
@@nafischowdhury7375 dudes coming off of napoleon. Like come on.
@@mudstyle5288 yeah. also gladiator 1 wouldn't win best picture if it was released this year. the academy is very different now.
Not to act like a soothsayer, but it just seems likely to me that if anything, September 5 is going to trade places with it as the Paramount MVP. Not that a Paramount film HAS to get in, but I feel them throwing their weight behind it more, plus Sarsgaard for acting, plus Original Screenplay. (Now if Juror #2 actually is any good, and Eastwood pulls one last famous WB hail mary like in his 2003-2006 heyday, that's trouble maybe. Or Blitz falls off, and maybe there's room for both.)
@@RehabRaccoon69 yeah, september 5 is clearly paramount's backup unless g2 doesn't work out and the studio knows that it's entirely possible given ridley's recent track record.
I wish Sing Sing had expanded to more markets. It's insane that living in Nashville I didn't have any screenings anywhere near me. It's not a huge market, but they could have at least gotten it into cities
A24 doesn't believe in it very obviously
Exactly. Granted I’m from Chattanooga and that’s not as big as Nashville or other large cities. However I was also surprised that there were no showings near me. The closest were Atlanta and it was literally in one theater for very limited showings. Guess I’m waiting for streaming lol
SING SING had a run in Nashville.
@@SamsMythDesign When?? Where?? I looked for it every week and it never showed up on any movie booking website. Even if it was in town it wasn't accessible
@@big-fish1199It opened August 8 at the Belcourt and ran at least two weeks. They even had a special event hosting the theatre director and inmates from a similar program as that depicted in the film
First, holy shit, congrats on 500 members! You deserve that big time. Second, here's my case for Juror #2: It is supposedly Clint Eastwood's last film as a director. But more importantly, I feel like Juror won't be as controversial as some of his other films like Richard Jewell. It's completely fictional, unlike most of his other recent works, and considering it's a courtroom drama, it's much more catered to oscar voters. If it can be a very good, agreeable film, I can easily see Picture, Director, Original Screenplay (WGA covered by the way), Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor (Simmons looks like he's gonna be a big character), and Editing. It just feels like the right film to send Eastwood off (even though I'm not much of a fan of American Sniper or Richard Jewell).
47:34 The twins pretend to like the substance, but they don't. More importantly, they don't want you to predict Demi Moore either. Every time they walk about The Substance, I have noticed, they are very negative about it.
I went to this timestamp, and they are talking about how they like it and wish it was getting pushed more by critics etc. is there reason to believe they would be dishonest about their real feelings?
They do like it, they just don’t believe it’s a contender due to multiple factors.
lmao calm down theres no agenda here, most people don't think its happening either
I saw September 5 on the same day as Saturday Night at Telluride - and September 5 was by far the superior movie about one hectic day of creating live TV.
I'm currently predicting "The Brutalist." It hearkens back to '70s-era moviemaking, and in a year where we had "Megalopolis" crash and burn, the existence of "The Brutalist" will prove that that classic style is alive and well in the current generation, and most importantly, the fact that something was made at that scale for under $10 million is a HELL of a story. PGA is going to eat that up, and the directors' branch are going to be gobsmacked by how Corbet was able to pull that off at such a young age and with such a low budget, especially in the era of these catastrophically high-budgeted films.
What gives me pause on "Anora" is that while I think it will do very well with nominations, I'm not yet convinced Madison is winning Best Actress, which I think would be a much-needed win for the film as a whole to take the top prize. She's still a very new face and it's very rare an ingenue wins the lead acting prize their first time out, and I think she's got stiff competition from Ronan and Gascon. If Madison becomes a sweeper, I'll be more convinced "Anora" is our winner, but for now, I have it in second place behind "The Brutalist," a film that I think will be less divisive among the general voting branches and which will be the bigger tech player.
My reason for The Room Next Door being a potential nominee is similar to why it won Golden Lion. Not because the jury loved it, but because his friends want to see him get recognized. There's a possibility that his Academy friends will too just because English film. He will have support from directors and actors that have worked with him before. He's gotten lead nominations the last two films. Golden Globes could give it early buzz with Acting, Directing, and Music nominations. It will probably blank at CC and SAG. BAFTA could revive it and that could be enough
You guys are delusional regarding Sing Sing
Got to see Nickel Boys early at Twin Cities Film Festival 2024. It’s up there with Anora for my favorite of the year (haven’t seen Brutalist yet). Sadly I wouldn’t be surprised if it gets ignored. The Academy did the same thing with Blindspotting in 2018.
Will we perhaps have an actual close race for Best Picture this year? The last few were over before it started.
I hope so but im pretty sure people are gonna be babies about Brutalist.
Sing Sing is incredible, but looking at the big picture, people just seem to have a general allergy towards "prison movies." It's hard to think of one that was actually successful (even Shawshank was viewed as a dud when it was released, despite its Oscar noms). Not sure if that explains the awkward rollout that a24 has given it.
I LOVE prison movies its such an interesting subject and setting
I was at telluride and people who saw Sept. 5 liked it but nobody was buzzing about it. Feel like the big push the publications are giving it feels surface face political
And outside of that one online poll, Nickel Boys was wowing people. Even those that didn’t like it couldn’t outright deny it
I hate that people are going to make it happen simply because of this
Everyone knows some shady members are trying to push it because it's Zionist propaganda meant to make you justify atrocities happening against the Palestineans (and now the Lebanese)
That's why the film isn't liked by anyone but it's still getting pushed.
Huh not sure whether The Revenant and 1917 are the best comparison for The Brutalist's release... While it's true they also released in december, The Brutalist has on its side the fact that it has already been seen by some and it has incredible buzz from the festivals (while the other two were classical late releases). Even though the fact that not everybody will have seen it could be limitating, it might be just enough for getting the nominations, while the right timing for the release might boost it in the winning conversation. Anora probably still has the edge because of other factors, but I wouldn't attribute it to the release strategy.
I NEEDED THIS VIDEO to kick off my watch list for the holidays
One thing I would point out in a year like 2024 is I wonder how the political climate, election outcome and prevailing zeitgeist affects the choice of Academy members. That could sometimes be the difference between an Anora winning or The Brutalist winning. If things are looking up, an Anora. may win but if there's uncertainty and things look grim in January, The Brutalist could have an edge.
To me, I would have Fiennes in the top two because of the narrative and him being the most consistently praised aspect of the movie. I honestly see him winning BAFTA over Brody and with Colman less singled out that Maclin and playing Bob Dylan isn’t as flashy as other musicians, I think Fiennes should be considered a bigger contender at the moment imo. But you guys do have great reasoning otherwise keep it up 👍
Last 7 Golden Lion winners: 5 nominated for Picture, Director, Acting and Screenplay, all of them won at least one of them. 4 of those winners were in English, HALF of them (2) went on to win Picture and Director. What TRND is doing because of the initial mild reception is mostly a shock to see an Almodovar film in English and with Anglo-Saxon performers, also, away from the most Almodovar brand and reflecting on life and death, as he has never done before, in such an authorial way. I guess it's a film designed to grow on multiple viewings and with time passing, and most reviews are just out-of-the-theater. We've seen this before and be in shock how films that were received tepidly by critics and audiences, are re-evaluated, some quite quickly, in time to score surprising Film Critic Circles wins and even Oscars. I have the sense that it's a formidable contender and Globes aside, it'll do well at BAFTA and SAG, and probably get some love from LAFC and score a PGA and AFI top 10 nomination.
Oh, and neither The Shape of Water, Nomadland, Joker or Poor Things were Oscar stuff... Roma was, but in Spanish and The Room Next Door is baity on its subject and English spoken. Marty, del Toro, didn't win for their best film, did they?
The Subtance is one of the most impactful movies I've ever seen and must be nominated for something!
Sing Sing has just always been overhyped. Don’t know why anyone thought it was ever a clear runaway
Let go of Sing Sing - A24 admittedy’blew it’ with this pic and marketing.
Neither Anora as BP nor Sean Baker as director getting Oscar. You are delulu
The Brutalist hearkens back to a time long ago when lengthy, meaty films like Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon would get awards attention.
Great video guys!! Can’t wait to go through this awards season with you again
My Best Picture Picks
1. The Brutalist
2. Anora
3. Dune Part 2
4. The Substance
5. Conclave
6. Sing Sing
7. Emilia Perez
8. A Real Pain
9. Gladiator 2
10. Nickel Boys
Some of these are my favourite picks of the year like The Brutalist & The Substance. Some I haven’t seen yet but I’ve heard amazing things & seeing people really raving about.
Anora winning something big, would give some kind of "Justice Redemption" to Florida Project.
Of what I've seen, The Brutalist;
I think now it's clear for Anora!
Id really love Ramell Ross and Coralie Fargeat to get directing Nods. I dont love NickelBoys but i admire it. I admire and love The Substance. No, NO movies this year are sheer perfection of a directors Vision.
Tho and, finally: craziest thing that could easily happen is Kidman and Brody winning Best lead again, second time each, same year. I believe it Never happened.
Kidman might not even get nominated
Hello The Oscar expert my name is Isaiah and I have something important to say to you guys. God loves you and like any father he wants to help you and keep you safe especially from the devil. But I am not just speaking to you about this I am also talking to your fans about this. God loves us all and he wants us all to be saved not just from ourselves but from the devils clutches. Do not be afraid to come to the Lord for his love is for evreyone Shalom Shalom.
I love God, but I also want to know who He has for top 5 in supporting actress.
I think you guys were too quickly dismissive of The Room Next Door. American film critics did not like it VERY much but international critics went nuts for it. It placed high on a lot of International polls from Venice. So much that I was predicting it to win the second biggest prize.
And yes, I know in the Oscar race American film critics matters the most but a lot of international critics vote for the Globes (which you already mentioned in the video about this possibility). But there's a lot of international industry people at the Academy now and Almodovar is very well liked among these.
I guess we'll have to wait and see how it does at the EFAs. They became an interesting precursor these last few years, giving us many clues in races like directing and screenplay.
TRND and The Substance are eligible there. So as Emilia Perez, Conclave, Hard Truths and The Seed of the Sacred Fig.
The Zone of Interest was well-received by audiences because it was marketed really well - everyone who went into that movie knew exactly what to expect.
It got a C- cinemascore and didn't make a profit at the box office
@@RB-.- It made $52 million on a $15 million budget, and I can't find any evidence of that cinemascore. It doesn't seem like cinemascore actually polled the movie.
Like many I’m rooting for the substance. I don’t think it’s as impossible as it might seem, though the last 20 mins makes the argument for it’s oscar nom placement a lot harder. Also, the new complete unknown trailer actually looks really good. Have my doubts about a real pain and i would probably switch the two in BP
I know it didn’t fare well at the Toronto but having Saturday Night out and Gladiator 2 in is wild to me… I still think this one could be a sleeper
Come to think of the fact that you guys had Anora,The Brutalist and Emilia Perez at 32, 24 and 41 at the beginning of the year. 😁😁😁Just how fast the Oscar race changes.............
10 months later is fast???
u boys are my go too Channel for awards season keep up the awesome content
Anora is benefiting from a weak year.
It’s also a great movie
Last year was a weak year. Dune 2, Anora, The Brutalist, The Outrun, Nickelboys, The Beast, The Wild Robot, The Substance, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Monkey Man, Challengers, The First Omen, Megalopolis, Late Night with the Devil, Cuckoo came out this year. Competition is heavy.
I really think this SHOULD be Dune's year to win Best Picture - no movie has been talked about to the degree Dune has when it comes to box office success and awards buzz
The fact that Anora placed at TIFF with literally 3 screenings shows how strong it is.
They do adjust the voting for how many seats it filled, not just total votes, I have learned.
@@TheOscarExpert it also had 4 more screenings added on in addition to those 3 screenings too.
How strong it is where? Fabelmans won TIFF - how many Oscars did it get?
@@Kilamanola ah I didn’t know that thanks for the update.
@@pb.j.1753 yeah that’s fair but then last year all three TIFF placers went home with an Oscar (American Fiction, The Holdovers, Boy and the Heron).
My picks match like 9/10 lmaoo just have Sept 5 over Glad II since I think the latter is box office dependent on its nomination. Race seems like it's still kinda open since I think only the Top 6/7 are relatively safe
Congrats on getting Gold Derby Expert, Cole!
I love that these guys clearly don’t even bother brushing or drying their hair. Still 🔥!
From the top 5 The Brutalist deserves to win, Anora is overrated.
Goddamn i love all your reasoning. Taking literally everything into account. Again amazing videos guys!
Reasonably Manifesting "Challengers" Push
Cope Manifesting "I Saw The TV Glow" Push
Blitz I saw at London Film Festival on Wednesday and was so disappointed, definitely not a Best Picture contender at ALL
Very excited about this line up. More than I expected at the beginning of the year.
Dune Part 2 needs to win.
I feel like the Academy is waiting to award Villeneuve for Dune Messiah since its his last film of the franchise.
@@joymartin4640it can be. I feel like they will wait for his Cleopatra something movie. Idk how to explain this lmao
Give Sean Baker a damn oscar already
Bro !!! Where did you get that rabbit shirt...????? Love it ! Do tell.....lol. As far as "movies" for Best Picture....pretty much agree, so far, with you guys.NEVER...have I understood the "hype" for the Dune movies (sorry,not sorry). I predict major surprises in most Oscar categories....I think that there are so/too many possibilities in many categories. Love you channel guys ! Thank you !!!
Been waiting for so long! Lets go!
Anora is not best picture and best director. The twins know it so well
Can't wait to see The Brutalist.
Living for the bunny shirt
What are these comments lmao, why is the Substance hive out in droves
Gen Z is here mostly and they eat that movie up
as the twins said in one of their previous videos, there is a passion for the Substance and Demi Moore. if you look at golddery forum you can see that too
I love Demi, I am rooting for her so what's the problem here?
cos we like the movie
Surprised? Why? havent you seen 130K people love The Substance on letterboxd? there is love and passion for the movie.
Get Out (horror) got nominated in Best Picture so can't The Substance get it too?
To be fair, Get Out made 255 million at the box office, and was a cultural phenomenon.
Get Out was also a movie centered on a problem that is very present in America and that academy voters love. The Substance doesn’t have that
Get Out was not disgusting to watch nor overlong. Its themes are treated smartly and not with a sledgehammer.
The Substance is currently at 12 million dollars at the box office, Get Out had 255 million by the end.
@@maxwellpiercy680
the substance has a different message that you dont get
@@pb.j.1753 The substance is not American film, its box office is soooooo irrelavent. " Get Out was not disgusting to watch nor overlong. Its themes are treated smartly and not with a sledgehammer" too bad you dont get it.
I'm still not seeing how it can't be Dune. That movie is simply on a different level, to basically do every aspect of filmmaking (writing, direction, acting, cinemtography, editing, score, set/costume design, etc.) at perfection at THAT scale, practically unheard of. Only other comparison would be The Return of the King, and we know what that did at the Oscars.
The Dune movies are severely overrated, man. Dune Part II is a 7.5/10 at best, and the first one was outright subpar. Maybe Dune: Messiah will be better, but Part II honestly doesn’t deserve a Best Picture nomination
@@huhwhatasht doesn’t deserve a nomination? Are you serious?
@@logantamlyn9727 100% serious. Denis’ Dune films are a massive disappointment. He should’ve done a miniseries instead to actually have time to delve into the characters and plot. Instead he made two Marvel movies
@@huhwhatasht comparing either Dune to literally any marvel movie ever made is insanity.
@@logantamlyn9727 Dune Part I has less thematic depth than most Marvel movies. It was a ginormous misstep
Did you guys get a new camera? The quality's great!
You’re quite explicit about not attributing any credit to films you haven't watched, only based on their trailers, but you appeared quite sure about Gladiator 2 after only viewing the trailer. Doesn't that seem a little contradictory?
That cat is half the reason I watch these.
Lol I get so excited when I see a new video by the bros
RABBITS!
Emilia Pérez is pronounced like Emilia Peh-rez with the stressed syllable in Pe.
What’s got brother bro geeking in the thumbnail?
I just saw community predictions for Oscars on your app and I must ask... are people so delusional about Dune Part 2 😱 Majority is predicting 8 Oscars for Dune, basically all tech categories 😂 I mean Dune is good but very very veeery far from being THAT good
Room next door si masterpiece