Just want to thank you three for doing what you do. We get these videos once every week or two for half of the year but we all know this is a 365 day job and all three of you are great and your chemistry together is even better!
I can’t believe it’s been seven years since you guys started FYC! I started watching with the first season and I look forward to your awards discourse every year! Thanks for all the great work guys!
I don't know what the comments people have been saying but I know that I always love your FYC predictions, all the different takes and bets, and I appreciate all your efforts! Keep doing you!!!!
People were salty that there's some movies the panel hasn't seen yet, but this is how the show plays out every year and since they have insider info and hear the advanced buzz on things, its perfect for getting your watch list ready before the season kicks into full swing.
I genuinenly think Clarence Maclin is being underestimated here. Sing Sing is at a bit of a lull but I think A24 is gonna do a CODA for that movie, to contrast with their The Brutalist campaign. He's win competitive to me in SAG specifically, and Sing Sing is a likely SAG Ensemble nominee. And even if that doesn't pan out, that performance to me seems like it would garner a lot of 1sts in the ballot.
I would LOVE to see Jeremy Strong get a nom, he and Sebastian Stan both were amazing! I also agree with Jeff on this one, I think box office is important as that crucial final push for the best picture, but performances have mostly existed on their own. There are like a ton of performances from very small and generally unknown films that got noms for performances over much bigger and more successful contenders. We'll see...
Thank you for your coverage of awards season, from initial thoughts based on some screenings and some projections and then your full, final predictions later down the line. It makes the discussion more fun!
My Best Supporting Actor picks!! 1. Guy Pearce 2. Clarence Maclin 3. Kieran Culkin 4. Denzel Washington 5. Jeremy Strong Honourable mention to Austin Butler.
I saw Conclave last night and really admired the craftsmanship. I’ve only seen three movies this year that I liked, but it’s certainly the best I’ve seen of 2024 so far: 1. Conclave 2. Dune Part II 3. Challengers
I love this show soooo much! It just saddens me when perrie has to give these messages like it makes me think there are ppl in the comments being annoying and giving them a hard time over obvious things 😭😭😭
My $0.02: box office mostly matters relative to expectations. An indie will gross $5 million and voters won't bat an eye, giving it a Best Picture nomination. But if your film is mainstream, expected to gross $100 million, and it only grosses $50 million... that film is in trouble. (Arguably it's not because of the poor box office that this happens, but rather that the poor box office is indicative that audiences didn't respond to the film, word of mouth was poor, and because Oscar voters are human too they are also less likely to respond well.) I'm not sure this argument is applicable to The Apprentice, as the T* * * * factor comes with so much extra baggage affecting the box office and audience response.
Im with Jeff about box office. A good film should be as noticed even more than a box office results. Not because a film made money does mean that it is a good one.
Clarence Maclin in Sing Sing is a lock! Other 3: Kieren Culkin Guy Pearce Denzel Washington Fighting for 5th: Willem Dafoe (Nosferatu) Edward Norton (Complete Unknown) Stanley Tucci (Conclave)
Fantastic group of predictions for supporting actor cannot wait to watch those movies. Conclave is now my new favorite movie of the year it was absolute perfection. This is going to be a very competitive season for movies this year and I love it :)
1. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) 2. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) 3. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) 4. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) 5. Stanley Tucci (Conclave)
I'd love to Pablo Larrain do a film on Frida Kahlo and Eva Perón. I know there's the Salma Hayek film and the Madonna musical, but I love the visuals of Larrain's films. Almost as if you're in a fever dream of some of these biopics he directs.
Jack Nicholson won his 3rd Oscar for a romantic comedy, totally out of the norm for him. It’s hard for me to believe the Academy would give Denzel a 3rd Oscar for playing a variation of the same masculine character he always plays.
My current predictions on The Awards Expert app (as of 31.10): 24. Mark Hamill (The Life of Chuck) 23. Jeremy Pope (The Collaboration) 22. Denis Quaid (The Substance) 21. Josh O'Connor (Challengers) 20. Javier Bardem (Dune: Part Two) 19. Harris Dickinson (Blitz) 18. John Lithgow (Conclave) 17. J.K. Simmons (Juror No. 2) 16. Austin Butler (Dune: Part Two) 15. Drew Starkey (Queer) 14. Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson) 13. Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside) 12. Harris Dickinson (Babygirl) 11. Mark Eydelshteyn (Anora) 10. John Magaro (September 5) 9. Yura Borisov (Anora) 8. Peter Sarsgaard (September 5) 7. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) 6. Stanley Tucci (Conclave) --------------------------------------------------------- 5. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) 4. Guy Peàrce (The Brutalist) 3. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice) 2. Keiran Culkin (A Real Pain) 1. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) P.S. look me up on The Awards Expert app @poihpio98 for more wrong predictions and even wronger favourites!
I don't think that the Apprentice has less of chances of success because it stars Trump, and it is not skewed in Trump's favor, and Dick Cheney portrayed by Christian Bale, did get a nomination and close to winning it was basically a tie, was depicted as a monster, so yeah I don't really think it alters the game. But we'll see, I do think that both Sebastian Stein and Jeremy Cohen will get nominated
My top5 1. Guy Pearce - The Brutalist 2. Clarence Maclin - Sing Sing 3. Denzel Washington - Gladiator II 4. Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain 5. Yura Borisov - Anora
I really wish Strong would get nominated for Supporting Actor but I can easily see him getting left out. I really liked The Apprentice so I would be thrilled if Strong and Stan got in for their performances and maybe it got in for Adapted Screenplay. As it is though it will probably got 0-3. :( Washington and Culkin's performances are two I'm highly anticipating seeing. I expect both will be top contenders for these awards. I've not seen much so far since not that many serious Oscar contenders are out for me yet. I did see Terrance Macklin from Sing Sing (sadly it seems he is falling out?) and Stanley Tucci for Conclave. I saw Conclave this past Friday and like it. I think it will get like 4-7 nominations but I don't see it winning anything. All of the performances in it are not showy enough and or long enough imo to win. Tucci could get in but as the 4th/5th place nominee likely because his movie is getting seen a lot more than some smaller films that have performances that deserve it more (no shade to him). I will be seeing Anora this upcoming Friday so I am very excited since it was my most anticipated movie to see after hearing all the buzz for it in in many categories. If award groups can all rally behind one of the supporting actors in it then maybe they could get that one man in but as it is it seems that the support will be split and that will mean none get in.
My predictions: 1 - Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) 2 - Denzel Washington (Gladiator II) 3 - Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) 4 - Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing) 5 - Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown) hm: Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice); Stanley Tucci (Conclave); Mark Eydelshteyn & Yuriy Borisov (Anora); Peter Sarsgaard (September 5)
I love Denzel and I want him to win this time for Gladiator. My fear is for Denzel to win precursor awards like SAG but at Oscar Culkin might win. It is the same disappointment for Denzel as Culkin might be this year’s Casey Affleck who will be voted by the Academy and ignore Denzel I love Guy Pierce too. Jeremy strong should be nominated as both Sebastian and Jeremy were amazing on that film. As of now, my winner is Denzel.
Love you guys and all you do!! But Jeff is 100% right about Jeremy Strong. Box office didn’t affect Jessica Chastain winning for Eyes of Tammy Faye (only $3m WW BO). Jeremy’s work is undeniable - I think even better than Kieran in A Real Pain
I really hope this season shapes up to be more interesting than these early predictions make it seem. Also I've never been so disheartened in the Academy/Gold Derby crowd as I am by the continual lack of love for Challengers this season.
Supporting actor/actress is the category I have the most success with predictions historically, and I feel it’s in the approach: is it the standout memory that people will talk about for generations ( Bardem in No Country, Hopkins in Silence ..Lambs, etc). And I haven’t seen all of the films yet either, but to me Stanley Tucci was good but fails the test of standing out
Best Actor will be in between Brody and Domingo, from what I'm gauging. Tucci seems unlikely to win; most have been saying his performance isn't showy at all, and that he doesn't stand out much in the movie.
Not having Clarence Maclin in the 5 seems wild. I’ve yet to see the passion for Sept. 5th outside of this program. I’ll reserve my faith in that movie’s chances until I’ve seen it, but across the broader spectrum of awards buzz (and all the other awards prognosticator outlets) it’s barely mentioned. Denzel seems like a lock. Kieran has risen in conversation, so that seems likely. Guy Pierce seems undeniable given the praise and growing momentum for The Brutalist. The 5th spot seems like a toss-up between Stanley Tucci, Jeremy Strong, or Edward Norton depending on the academy’s enthusiasm for their respective films. Tucci seems the most likely. Samuel L. Jackson is out. The reception for The Piano Lesson has been lukewarm to bad with Sam being the most underwhelming element of it. Danielle Deadwyler, however, seems to be the only bright spot with a chance of being the film’s sole nomination in her respective category. I’m predicting Maclin, Washington, Pierce, Culkin, and Tucci.
Its the close your eyes test for me.... When you close your eyes can you see the Academy Giving Culkin an Award OVER Denzel? I cant see it no matter how many times i play that game.
On the topic of box office, I’m with Jeff. It doesn’t matter. A lot of these potential Oscar hopefuls will not have box office success because a few of them are not backed by major studios, they will not be accessible in 3,000-4,000 theaters nationwide. Anora, A Real Pain, The Substance, Emilia Perez, The Apprentice, The Piano Lesson, etc., are released by rarely young studios or Netflix. We have moved on from the success of a film during award season bring predicated on box office.
I dont see momentum for The apprentice however there is passion for strong among pundits,now if that translates to the oscar voters is a story for another day 😊
Thanks, Perri, for explaining the life and the function of prognosticating. I haven’t seen ANY of the potential nominees. I’m just going by critical reaction, reception at film festivals (Cannes, Toronto, SXSW, Venice, Sundance, etc.), and of course you, Jeff and Mantz. Thanks a bunch.
I can see that, but I do not give much credibility to the opinion of people just basing their movie opinions on reviews, etc. that have not seen the movie. Rather people stick to movies they have actually seen.
Oh my, never! For so many reasons ... One of my favorite things about checking the FYC comments in particular is seeing everyone else's lists, especially this early in the season when so much is still up in the air! Also, this particular issue felt important to address because it speaks to the format and goals of the show. I'll always take an opportunity to shed light on that! And admittedly, I haven't been as on top of this lately as I usually am, but it's also quite important to me to make sure this channel remains a safe and positive place to discuss film and TV -- and that means keeping an eye on the comments, just in case. 😊
@@PerriNemiroff Thanks for being so involved in the community you've created on here. IMO, it's one of the more respectful ones on RUclips. Here's to hoping it stays that way. Appreciate all you, Jeff, and Scott do on this!
Jeff is right, these studios have to let people who cover the film industry and awards season, watch their films so it can actually be a fun conversation instead of a guessing game.
Most films nominated for Oscars aren’t even known to the public. Most are not box office hits. So I have always wondered why folks talk about box office when it come to The Oscars. The only box office that matters is the Academy. What they choose to see. And what they like.
I will give you guys a $200 super chat if Austin Butler doesn't get nominated for Dune Part 2. I think you guys are waaayyyy underrating Dune Part 2s chances in just about every category. Nobody is going to see any of these movies you are talking about outside of Gladiator 2.
I just watched Gladiator 2, oh boy..., I'm hearing all the buzz for Denzel.... I don't get it.... In this overall mess of a film he's to me what Jared Leto was in The House of Gucci. Way way way over the top, very silly and at times being in a complete different film.... I know he is very beloved in the industry.... but giving him an oscar nomination for this would be insane.... (just my opinion) :-)
I don´t really want politics in your predictions, no need for those, i´m watching these for the fun Oscar analyses not for the real world serious stuff. The Apprentice is not getting in, just like Saturday Night and A Real Pain probably, its the lack of noise. My dream pick would be Nicolas Cage for Longlegs, but thats a dreampick.
Plz don’t get into politics I enjoy this show but I’ll have to stop plz keep politics out of entertainment! That a MAJOR reason Hollywood is dying ppl hate it
Box Office isn’t always the best bet (ex: Nomadland, CODA, Everything Everywhere) none of of which made that much money. Also inside Out 2 making a billion doesn’t mean anything because Frozen II made a billion dollars and wasn’t nominated
The Jeremy Strong argument is why I love this show. All 3 of you had great points
Perri and Scott going nuts every time Jeff messes with the mic made my day.
Just want to thank you three for doing what you do. We get these videos once every week or two for half of the year but we all know this is a 365 day job and all three of you are great and your chemistry together is even better!
Loved Conclave!
I can't believe no one included Clarence Maclin in their top five. He was great in Sing Sing an
d has a heartwarming backstory.
Yeah, he's closer to winning than missing.
they’re too obsessed with september flop to think clearly
Thanks guys!
You are all passionate about your predictions and the fact that all three of you have different perspectives is a bonus!
I can’t believe it’s been seven years since you guys started FYC! I started watching with the first season and I look forward to your awards discourse every year! Thanks for all the great work guys!
I don't know what the comments people have been saying but I know that I always love your FYC predictions, all the different takes and bets, and I appreciate all your efforts! Keep doing you!!!!
People were salty that there's some movies the panel hasn't seen yet, but this is how the show plays out every year and since they have insider info and hear the advanced buzz on things, its perfect for getting your watch list ready before the season kicks into full swing.
Y'all got me hyped for Gladiator II now
love your canny banter and passion for movies!
Spicy show guys! I think this category is the most up in the air/hard to predict.
I think the final list was the smart list, good job guys
I genuinenly think Clarence Maclin is being underestimated here. Sing Sing is at a bit of a lull but I think A24 is gonna do a CODA for that movie, to contrast with their The Brutalist campaign. He's win competitive to me in SAG specifically, and Sing Sing is a likely SAG Ensemble nominee. And even if that doesn't pan out, that performance to me seems like it would garner a lot of 1sts in the ballot.
I would LOVE to see Jeremy Strong get a nom, he and Sebastian Stan both were amazing! I also agree with Jeff on this one, I think box office is important as that crucial final push for the best picture, but performances have mostly existed on their own. There are like a ton of performances from very small and generally unknown films that got noms for performances over much bigger and more successful contenders. We'll see...
Thank you for your coverage of awards season, from initial thoughts based on some screenings and some projections and then your full, final predictions later down the line. It makes the discussion more fun!
I love you guys!!! Thank you for doing what you do every week!!!
Ermigod the Brutalist trailer was amazing. You can just tell they're nailing it with every frame. Can't wait for it!
Ya'll are the GOAT, thank you for making awards season interesting and providing fresh perspectives and insight, FYC ya later
"Paramount doesnt communicate with me". Mysterious.
Jeff as fiery as ever, keep up the great work you guys
Would love to see one of the Anora actors get some love - lots of amazing supporting performances, especially Karren Karaguilan or Yura Borisov.
I think it’s happening and it’s being underrated that it will!
My Best Supporting Actor picks!!
1. Guy Pearce
2. Clarence Maclin
3. Kieran Culkin
4. Denzel Washington
5. Jeremy Strong
Honourable mention to Austin Butler.
I saw Conclave last night and really admired the craftsmanship. I’ve only seen three movies this year that I liked, but it’s certainly the best I’ve seen of 2024 so far:
1. Conclave
2. Dune Part II
3. Challengers
The tension between everyone is just so entertaining and funny. Perri absolutely despises Jeff lmao
I love this show soooo much! It just saddens me when perrie has to give these messages like it makes me think there are ppl in the comments being annoying and giving them a hard time over obvious things 😭😭😭
My top 5
Pearce, Culkin, Washington, Maclin & Norton
Love you guys! Tend to favor Perri and Scott's takes over Jeff's, BUT I love the chaos.
My $0.02: box office mostly matters relative to expectations. An indie will gross $5 million and voters won't bat an eye, giving it a Best Picture nomination. But if your film is mainstream, expected to gross $100 million, and it only grosses $50 million... that film is in trouble. (Arguably it's not because of the poor box office that this happens, but rather that the poor box office is indicative that audiences didn't respond to the film, word of mouth was poor, and because Oscar voters are human too they are also less likely to respond well.) I'm not sure this argument is applicable to The Apprentice, as the T* * * * factor comes with so much extra baggage affecting the box office and audience response.
Honestly believe this list is going to change drastically next time. There are too many choices. This is fun😊
Im with Jeff about box office. A good film should be as noticed even more than a box office results. Not because a film made money does mean that it is a good one.
Clarence Maclin in Sing Sing is a lock!
Other 3:
Kieren Culkin
Guy Pearce
Denzel Washington
Fighting for 5th:
Willem Dafoe (Nosferatu)
Edward Norton (Complete Unknown)
Stanley Tucci (Conclave)
Agreed 👍🏼
@@davidfilmexperttake the word expert out of your name
@@davidfilmexpertmaclin is more lock than the people you listed below lmfaoo film expert my ass 😭😭
Fantastic group of predictions for supporting actor cannot wait to watch those movies. Conclave is now my new favorite movie of the year it was absolute perfection. This is going to be a very competitive season for movies this year and I love it :)
1. Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
2. Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
3. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)
4. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
5. Stanley Tucci (Conclave)
I'd love to Pablo Larrain do a film on Frida Kahlo and Eva Perón. I know there's the Salma Hayek film and the Madonna musical, but I love the visuals of Larrain's films. Almost as if you're in a fever dream of some of these biopics he directs.
Nice shirt, Jeff
Denzel is a huge Hollywood insider who is beloved by the Academy. 😀This is his time for the 3rd Oscar. Gladiator 2 will be a big movie.
Jack Nicholson won his 3rd Oscar for a romantic comedy, totally out of the norm for him. It’s hard for me to believe the Academy would give Denzel a 3rd Oscar for playing a variation of the same masculine character he always plays.
But Denzel has BEEN DESERVING AND EVERYONE THINKS THAT. Like been been. No one was yelling to give Jack a 3rd he just kinda stumbled into that
Supporting actor is a weak field this year. Denzel can win the Oscar this year over Kieran culkin and guy Pierce
My current predictions on The Awards Expert app (as of 31.10):
24. Mark Hamill (The Life of Chuck)
23. Jeremy Pope (The Collaboration)
22. Denis Quaid (The Substance)
21. Josh O'Connor (Challengers)
20. Javier Bardem (Dune: Part Two)
19. Harris Dickinson (Blitz)
18. John Lithgow (Conclave)
17. J.K. Simmons (Juror No. 2)
16. Austin Butler (Dune: Part Two)
15. Drew Starkey (Queer)
14. Samuel L. Jackson (The Piano Lesson)
13. Brian Tyree Henry (The Fire Inside)
12. Harris Dickinson (Babygirl)
11. Mark Eydelshteyn (Anora)
10. John Magaro (September 5)
9. Yura Borisov (Anora)
8. Peter Sarsgaard (September 5)
7. Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
6. Stanley Tucci (Conclave)
---------------------------------------------------------
5. Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
4. Guy Peàrce (The Brutalist)
3. Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice)
2. Keiran Culkin (A Real Pain)
1. Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)
P.S. look me up on The Awards Expert app @poihpio98 for more wrong predictions and even wronger favourites!
I don't think that the Apprentice has less of chances of success because it stars Trump, and it is not skewed in Trump's favor, and Dick Cheney portrayed by Christian Bale, did get a nomination and close to winning it was basically a tie, was depicted as a monster, so yeah I don't really think it alters the game. But we'll see, I do think that both Sebastian Stein and Jeremy Cohen will get nominated
Guy Pearce all the way! I've been saying it for twenty years now that someone needs to cast him as Roland in the dark tower.
I need Jeff to nail his mic down 😭
My top5
1. Guy Pearce - The Brutalist
2. Clarence Maclin - Sing Sing
3. Denzel Washington - Gladiator II
4. Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain
5. Yura Borisov - Anora
I really wish Strong would get nominated for Supporting Actor but I can easily see him getting left out. I really liked The Apprentice so I would be thrilled if Strong and Stan got in for their performances and maybe it got in for Adapted Screenplay. As it is though it will probably got 0-3. :(
Washington and Culkin's performances are two I'm highly anticipating seeing. I expect both will be top contenders for these awards.
I've not seen much so far since not that many serious Oscar contenders are out for me yet. I did see Terrance Macklin from Sing Sing (sadly it seems he is falling out?) and Stanley Tucci for Conclave.
I saw Conclave this past Friday and like it. I think it will get like 4-7 nominations but I don't see it winning anything. All of the performances in it are not showy enough and or long enough imo to win. Tucci could get in but as the 4th/5th place nominee likely because his movie is getting seen a lot more than some smaller films that have performances that deserve it more (no shade to him).
I will be seeing Anora this upcoming Friday so I am very excited since it was my most anticipated movie to see after hearing all the buzz for it in in many categories. If award groups can all rally behind one of the supporting actors in it then maybe they could get that one man in but as it is it seems that the support will be split and that will mean none get in.
Nic Cage for Longlegs and Hemsworth for Furiosa should be in consideration.
Rocha and Mance need to stream together and discuss the World Series. The passion from each would be great.
These noms were as scrambled as my eggs this morning.
My predictions:
1 - Guy Pearce (The Brutalist)
2 - Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)
3 - Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain)
4 - Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing)
5 - Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown)
hm: Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice); Stanley Tucci (Conclave); Mark Eydelshteyn & Yuriy Borisov (Anora); Peter Sarsgaard (September 5)
I love Denzel and I want him to win this time for Gladiator.
My fear is for Denzel to win precursor awards like SAG but at Oscar Culkin might win. It is the same disappointment for Denzel as Culkin might be this year’s Casey Affleck who will be voted by the Academy and ignore Denzel
I love Guy Pierce too. Jeremy strong should be nominated as both Sebastian and Jeremy were amazing on that film.
As of now, my winner is Denzel.
Love you guys and all you do!! But Jeff is 100% right about Jeremy Strong. Box office didn’t affect Jessica Chastain winning for Eyes of Tammy Faye (only $3m WW BO). Jeremy’s work is undeniable - I think even better than Kieran in A Real Pain
My current predictions:
1. Guy Pearce
2. Denzel Washington
3. Stanley Tucci
4. Keiran Culkin
5. Clarence Maclin
Lamore Morris should be nominated for Saturday Night!! Best supporting performance of the year!!
Andrea Riseborough’s nomination proves that box office success doesn’t mean everything as well as Coda winning Best Picture.
Oppenheimer wins tell another story
Or The eyes of Tammy Faye!
@@samuelblachon95130You said the most overrated film of all time that’s ever won the award?
Agreed
She should have won the Oscar. best performance of last year by far.
Sept 5, The apprentice, The Brutalist...Jeff is right....box office isn't a factor....and Peris right...campaign budgets are.
Yura Borisov was the heart of Anora. He is a future star.
I really hope this season shapes up to be more interesting than these early predictions make it seem. Also I've never been so disheartened in the Academy/Gold Derby crowd as I am by the continual lack of love for Challengers this season.
Challengers is an overrated movie. I'd say "Love Lies Bleeding" is being overlooked this season
Conclave was beautifully shot with a haunting score and some succinct editing but it lacked real depth IMO.
Juicy episode
Supporting actor/actress is the category I have the most success with predictions historically, and I feel it’s in the approach: is it the standout memory that people will talk about for generations ( Bardem in No Country, Hopkins in Silence ..Lambs, etc). And I haven’t seen all of the films yet either, but to me Stanley Tucci was good but fails the test of standing out
My “spider senses” are giving me a Tucci/Fiennes win, like Oppenheimer 🤔
Best Actor will be in between Brody and Domingo, from what I'm gauging. Tucci seems unlikely to win; most have been saying his performance isn't showy at all, and that he doesn't stand out much in the movie.
Not having Clarence Maclin in the 5 seems wild.
I’ve yet to see the passion for Sept. 5th outside of this program. I’ll reserve my faith in that movie’s chances until I’ve seen it, but across the broader spectrum of awards buzz (and all the other awards prognosticator outlets) it’s barely mentioned.
Denzel seems like a lock. Kieran has risen in conversation, so that seems likely. Guy Pierce seems undeniable given the praise and growing momentum for The Brutalist.
The 5th spot seems like a toss-up between Stanley Tucci, Jeremy Strong, or Edward Norton depending on the academy’s enthusiasm for their respective films. Tucci seems the most likely.
Samuel L. Jackson is out. The reception for The Piano Lesson has been lukewarm to bad with Sam being the most underwhelming element of it. Danielle Deadwyler, however, seems to be the only bright spot with a chance of being the film’s sole nomination in her respective category.
I’m predicting Maclin, Washington, Pierce, Culkin, and Tucci.
Seems crazy to omit Kieran Culkin. He’s the odds on fave to win in that category!
Its the close your eyes test for me.... When you close your eyes can you see the Academy Giving Culkin an Award OVER Denzel? I cant see it no matter how many times i play that game.
austin butler maybe
On the topic of box office, I’m with Jeff. It doesn’t matter. A lot of these potential Oscar hopefuls will not have box office success because a few of them are not backed by major studios, they will not be accessible in 3,000-4,000 theaters nationwide. Anora, A Real Pain, The Substance, Emilia Perez, The Apprentice, The Piano Lesson, etc., are released by rarely young studios or Netflix. We have moved on from the success of a film during award season bring predicated on box office.
box office will definitely matter for a movie like gladiator 2.
I dont see momentum for The apprentice however there is passion for strong among pundits,now if that translates to the oscar voters is a story for another day 😊
Thanks, Perri, for explaining the life and the function of prognosticating. I haven’t seen ANY of the potential nominees. I’m just going by critical reaction, reception at film festivals (Cannes, Toronto, SXSW, Venice, Sundance, etc.), and of course you, Jeff and Mantz. Thanks a bunch.
I can see that, but I do not give much credibility to the opinion of people just basing their movie opinions on reviews, etc. that have not seen the movie. Rather people stick to movies they have actually seen.
No love for Javier Bardem or Austin Butler for Dune 2?
Wicked is going to underperform so bad going up against Gladiator 2. Families, especially middle america will be going to see Gladiator over wicked.
Curious. Do people use Metacritic or Rotten tomatoes? Also, do people use box office results of IMDB/Letterboxd to determine audience reaction?
Perri gotta get out of the comments😂😂😂😂😂
Oh my, never! For so many reasons ...
One of my favorite things about checking the FYC comments in particular is seeing everyone else's lists, especially this early in the season when so much is still up in the air! Also, this particular issue felt important to address because it speaks to the format and goals of the show. I'll always take an opportunity to shed light on that!
And admittedly, I haven't been as on top of this lately as I usually am, but it's also quite important to me to make sure this channel remains a safe and positive place to discuss film and TV -- and that means keeping an eye on the comments, just in case. 😊
@@PerriNemiroff Thanks for being so involved in the community you've created on here. IMO, it's one of the more respectful ones on RUclips. Here's to hoping it stays that way. Appreciate all you, Jeff, and Scott do on this!
You guys still unable to do this all together on the same room?
Clarence Maclin is being highly underestimated here, he’s definitely top 1 or 2 for a locked nom!
Haven’t seen any of this years slate of films yet. What should I see first?
no one having clarence maclin on their top 5 is INSANE
Please put the podcast on Spotify
I luv fyc awards season...
Jeff is right, these studios have to let people who cover the film industry and awards season, watch their films so it can actually be a fun conversation instead of a guessing game.
Most films nominated for Oscars aren’t even known to the public. Most are not box office hits. So I have always wondered why folks talk about box office when it come to The Oscars. The only box office that matters is the Academy. What they choose to see. And what they like.
Fernanda torres ainda estou aqui!
I will give you guys a $200 super chat if Austin Butler doesn't get nominated for Dune Part 2. I think you guys are waaayyyy underrating Dune Part 2s chances in just about every category. Nobody is going to see any of these movies you are talking about outside of Gladiator 2.
Seconded that he was brilliant. The highlight of the film for me.
I hope Tom Hardy gets nominated for THE BIKERIDERS!
I just watched Gladiator 2, oh boy..., I'm hearing all the buzz for Denzel.... I don't get it.... In this overall mess of a film he's to me what Jared Leto was in The House of Gucci. Way way way over the top, very silly and at times being in a complete different film.... I know he is very beloved in the industry.... but giving him an oscar nomination for this would be insane.... (just my opinion) :-)
Feisty
I don´t really want politics in your predictions, no need for those, i´m watching these for the fun Oscar analyses not for the real world serious stuff. The Apprentice is not getting in, just like Saturday Night and A Real Pain probably, its the lack of noise. My dream pick would be Nicolas Cage for Longlegs, but thats a dreampick.
Put on the Sept 5 trailer right after I finished this ep (dropped yesterday). Looks very strong. A best screenplay nom is on lock.
I'm team Jeff on the box office debate
I think Stanley Tucci is my early favorite
I'm guessing this was done before perri saw gladiator 2 cause I just saw her removing it from her best picture lineup.
Great breakdown-- but I suggest keeping your eye on Paul Bettany in Here. Really powerful performance.
I think Jeremy Strong has a strong (😏) change of getting nominated
Javier Bardem did a better job in his role than Denzel did it in Israel bar Dempsey number one over Denzel but you are forgetting about DUNE pt.2
and my nominees are: Tucci, Washington, Pearce, Maclin and Sarsgaard. No arrogant & annoying Keiran Culkin sorry!
Agree with Jeff about Conclave. It's good, but kind of boring and way overrated.
Plz don’t get into politics I enjoy this show but I’ll have to stop plz keep politics out of entertainment!
That a MAJOR reason Hollywood is dying ppl hate it
True
If box office does not matter, how do you explain Sandra Bullocks Oscar?
My eyes hurt. I roll them whenever goes on and on about how good Gladiator 2 is. SMH.
Box Office isn’t always the best bet (ex: Nomadland, CODA, Everything Everywhere) none of of which made that much money. Also inside Out 2 making a billion doesn’t mean anything because Frozen II made a billion dollars and wasn’t nominated
Box Office doesn’t matter.
I don't think box office plays a big role in nominations. It's more so about getting the Academy's eyes on the film.
i love the confidence of sneider that trump is definitely gonna lose.